THE AGE OF (re)ALIGNMENT JUNE 2021 a PARLIAMENT STREET paper authored by Patrick Sullivan 1 PATRICK SULLIVAN THE AGE OF (re)ALIGNMENT A PARLIAMENT STREET PAPER PUBLISHED BY PARLIAMENT STREET JUNE 2021 2 CONTENTS PAGE 4: FOREWORD PAGE 5: INTRODUCTION PAGE 8: CHAPTER ONE – BORIS VS. ALEXANDER PAGE 13: CHAPTER TWO – AMBLING INTO AUTHORITARIANISM PAGE 17: CHAPTER THREE – THE ONCE AND FUTURE PRESIDENT PAGE 20: CHAPTER FOUR – THE GREAT REBOOT PAGE 23: CHAPTER FIVE – HAVING A LAUGH PAGE 29: CHAPTER SIX – REVOLUTIONARY ROADS PAGE 38: CHAPTER SEVEN – THE NATURAL ORDER PAGE 44: CONCLUSION – NEW PROGRESSIVES 3 FOREWORD By the time this pandemic is “over” we will have all collectively had, hopefully no more than, a year and a half of our lives taken from us. Most people are going to come out of this crucible very different from who they were when this great tragedy we have been living through began. We will not know ‘til many years hence what lasting changes, societal and political, this deadly virus hath wrought. We do know that there will be many and that they will be very significant changes indeed. Whilst we have been living in the fog of the pandemic, we have taken to looking at our politics through the prism of a pre-pandemic world. When we are finally out of this crisis, after we have caught our breaths, we will have to start the painful process of surveying the wreckage caused by this virus and the measures we had to take to stop it spreading, in so far as we were able. Sometimes in life one does not feel the bruises of a battle until the fight is over. Then the body reminds one of their pain so that they take the time to heal. All of us are due time to heal when this current crisis is in the rear-view mirror. Unfortunately, there are those such as the Davos-based World Economic Forum, our present prime minister, Alexander “Boris” Johnson, and our future king, Prince Charles, who would have the nation on a perpetual state of high alert. They would have us believe that climate change represents a similar real and present danger to that posed by Covid-19 in mid-March 2020, when the initial nationwide lockdown began. That is utterly preposterous on its face and the public is not going to be having any of it. The climate change hysterics are almost certain to hurt their cause as the absurd mania they bring to the challenge will cause many of those not so heavily invested in that agenda to increasingly consider that agenda absurd. Climate change should be tackled but should not be done so on the backs of the hardest working Britons, or the hardest working people of any nation. The Prime Minister should not prioritise the COP26 summit in November ahead of working with the great British people on bringing Britain back, but he almost definitely will. He would be better advised to focus on the real and present social and economic problems post-pandemic Britain will inevitably be facing before rushing off like Don Quixote to tilt at windmills. To everything there is a season. The season ahead should be one of healing, and, if we can shut up the “cancel culture” mob for long enough, one of laughter and smiling too. I implore our political leaders to consider the spiritual wellbeing of the nation in the coming weeks and months. This verse from The Ballad of Andrew Barton could not more perfectly reflect the national mood as the end of crisis seems in sight: “I am sore wounded but not slain; I will lay me down and bleed awhile, And then rise up to fight again.” From the Desk of Patrick Sullivan London, 2nd June 2021 4 INTRODUCTION “The immortal gods are wont to allow those persons whom they wish to punish for their guilt sometimes a greater prosperity and longer impunity, in order that they may suffer the more severely from a reverse in circumstances.” - Gaius Julius Caesar, The Gallic Wars: Book One (58-49 B.C./C.E.) “The history of failure in war can almost be summed up in two words: 'Too late.' Too late in comprehending the deadly purpose of a potential enemy; too late in realizing the mortal danger; too late in preparedness; too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance, too late in standing with one's friends. Victory in war results from no mysterious alchemy or wizardry but depends entirely upon the concentration of superior force at the critical points of combat.” - General Douglas MacArthur, as quoted by James B. Reston in Prelude to Victory (1942) “The seeds of leaders’ success and downfalls are often the same and are sown very early on. Most vividly in the cases of Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, their dark fates were sealed as they rose to the top.” - Steve Richards, The Prime Ministers (2019) The past 15 months are almost certain to have been difficult for everybody reading this paper. The failure of this government to act swiftly at the onset of this crisis has had an undeniably negative impact on the lives of all Britons, including this author. The Conservative Party has traditionally won elections because it has been seen as the party of competent management. This reputation is now in great jeopardy. At time of writing, the Prime Minister is riding high and the government has been experiencing an upswing in the polls. This is likely to be due to the vaccinations going well and the end of the crisis being in sight. But opinion polls are only a snapshot of public opinion at one moment in time and as we have learnt over the course of this pandemic, things can change very rapidly indeed. Many of the Prime Minister defenders claim that any criticism of his initial response to the pandemic is unfair because it is being done with the benefit of hindsight. This author is no Captain 5 Hindsight. I tried futilely to inform the public of the potential scale of Covid threat in an article for The Commentator published on Saturday 29th February 2020 and a briefing paper for Parliament Street published on Monday 16th March 2020. Neither the article nor the paper had any significant impact on the course of events, but sadly they were all too prophetic about the calamity to come and the Prime Minister’s lack of suitability to manage the crisis. On 29th February 2020, I wrote in The Commentator: “It was also announced that Mr. Johnson would be chairing an emergency COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Room A) meeting on Monday. COBRA is an emergency council most often convened as part of the Civil Contingencies Committee. Those in attendance at a CORBA meeting depend on the nature of the emergency. Some have criticised the British Prime Minister for not acting with the appropriate urgency. It is a fair point that infectious diseases don’t take weekends off. If the coronavirus becomes unmanageable, Mr. Johnson’s lack of haste in convening the COBRA meeting is sure to be used against him. There are echoes here of Mr. Johnson’s response to the London riots in August 2011 when he initially refused to cut short his summer holiday in Canada to deal with the crisis in his city. The public outcry was so great that he did eventually relent and come home early. When back in London, he continued to show no sense of urgency and even turned up late to the emergency COBRA meetings convened to deal with the riots. It is an unforced error on Mr. Johnson’s part to wait to hold an emergency COBRA meeting. Britons want to see their Prime Minister on top of a crisis and quick on the ball responding to changing facts on the ground. A failure to manage a crisis can severely alter the trajectory of a Prime Minister’s political fortunes. John Major won a general election, against all odds, on 9th April 1992 but five months later on Wednesday 16th September, which became known as ‘Black Wednesday’, he provided indecisive and in over his head as his Government tried and failed to keep the pound sterling in the Exchange Rate Mechanism as the value of the pound was collapsing. From that moment onwards, he became a Prime Minister with a very visible sell-by date. His government continued until the last possible date for a new general election, 1st May 1997, which saw the Conservative Party lose 171 seats, to be left with a presence of only 165 seats. Mr. Johnson would be wise to remember that ‘arrogance breeds contempt’ and if he fails to meet the moment with his response to this virus, the political paradigm could once again shift with the election of a credible leader of the ppposition, who could portray himself as a ‘serious man, for serious times’ in contrast to an ‘out for lunch’ Prime Minister.” One reason for Mr. Johnson seemingly having gotten away with the sophistry that no one could've prepared for this pandemic better has been the abject failure of the Leader of the Opposition. At Prime Minister's Questions every week, Sir. Keir Starmer behaves like a prosecutor and not a Prime-Minister- in-waiting. With an out-to-lunch Boris Johnson, Starmer could have presented himself as a serious man for serious times. Instead, he has failed to treat the office of Leader of the Opposition with the seriousness it deserves. He has proved too keen to prosecute the case against Boris Johnson and not keen enough to show empathy for a nation in pain.