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Stabilization Measures A Big Response

KPMG Commentary — March 26, 2020 2 KPMG 2020 Commentary Foreword

Unprecedented times!

Across the globe countries are taking extreme and important measures to protect public health, slow the spread of the virus, Please do not hesitate to contact us calm public concerns, and bolster economies. Many different should you require clarification on any of tools and mechanisms are being employed to protect workers, the matters discussed in this document. fight the economic disruption caused by COVID-19, and reduce business stress. The economic measures and the speed with which they are implemented will have profound impact on the global economies, and indeed is no different. Lisa Taylor The Prime Minister of Barbados has been swift to act to Managing Partner implement stabilization measures which may very well become a T: +1 246 434 3915 lifeline for many Barbadians. It is indeed expected that further M: +1 246 233 5703 measures will be put forward as the impact of this global crisis E: [email protected] becomes apparent.

Businesses and individuals are being asked to play their part to stem the impact of the health crisis, and from an economic Louisa Lewis-Ward perspective much more will be asked in the upcoming months to Partner, Head of Tax ensure that Barbados does not fall full victim to the negative T: +1 246 434 3941 global fallout. M: +1 246 231 0348 E: [email protected] The Prime Minister in her address to Barbados indicated that prior to the spread of COVID-19 and fear-driven panic around the world, the Barbados economy was expected to grow by roughly Christopher Brome 1.5% in 2020, predicated on another 3% pick up in tourist arrivals Partner, Advisory, Head of and broad-based recovery in the other sectors including Markets construction. Government now expects the impact to the T: +1 246 434 3907 Barbados economy to be primarily through the virus’ impact on M: +1 246 243 8709 global travel with a significant decrease in tourist arrivals, leading E: [email protected] to a sharp decline in economic activity and resulting in drastically reduced government tax revenues which are used primarily to fund the civil service and social programs in addition to a slower accumulation of international reserves than currently projected Michael Edghill as the baseline under the BERT – IMF EFF* supported program. Partner, Head of Audit T: +1 246 434 3900 Barbados will continue to punch above its weight and the Prime M: +1 246 231 1111 Minister has committed to Government making “the necessary E: [email protected] adjustment in this coming year to prepare the country for this unprecedented shock from COVID-19 while ensuring that we stay the course, remaining fully committed to our BERT program of economic growth and transformation”.

Here at home, while we secure our businesses we will need to focus on our people and the careful management of enforcement procedures, paying particular attention to caring for our vulnerable and elderly. We wish you all well.

• Barbados Economic Recovery Transformation- International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility (BERT – IMF EFF) • All figures quoted in this document are in Barbados dollars except where noted

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“With a reduction in tax revenues, Barbadians will bring ingenuity and resilience to the fore to weather what will be a protracted road to economic recovery. Louisa Lewis-Ward Partner, Head” of Tax - Companies - Individuals 5 KPMG 2020 Commentary Companies

Pre Covid-19 Post Covid-19

Government in late 2018 and into 2019 embarked on Government has projected that the fall in economic a series of adjustments to the Barbados tax platform activity will negatively affect the profit streams of which resulted in a reduction in the corporate tax corporations, the demand for properties and rates from 5.5% to 1%. Inflows at the end of increased compliance issues. February 2020, averaged $220 million. It is expected that corporation taxes and property taxes will be lower than were initially projected by between $19 million and $27.6 million, and between $8 million and $11.4 million, respectively. 2020 Corporate tax rates (non insurance) Taxable income - $0 - $1 million 5.5% Taxable income - $1 - $20 million 3.0% Taxable income - $20 - $30 million 2.5% Taxable income - Over $30 million 1.0%

Stabilization measures Stabilization measures

Jobs, Investment and Business Survival NIS Deferral - Employers who are retaining more program - Government is engaged with the private than [three quarters/two-thirds] of their staff sector on a major Jobs, Investment and Business complement will be able to defer the employer’s Survival program which will aim to: contributions to the NIS for the next three months in the first instance, with another three months if — facilitate businesses to use the pause in activity necessary. to upskill and invest to come back stronger — encourage banks to defer loan payments for Bank Financing - All banks have agreed to businesses that get into short-term difficulty as a provide temporary working-capital financing result of COVID-19; and options for corporate and small businesses directly — ensure the early start, resumption or impacted by COVID-19. continuation of up to $1 billion of private sector investments.

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Pre Covid-19 Post Covid-19

A shift in corporate tax rates was matched with a Government projects that tax revenues will be lower lowering of the personal income tax rates by between $157 million to $240 million depending applicable to individuals. on the severity of the impact of COVID-19 on economic activity. Personal income taxes are expected to be less than originally projected by between $25 million and $38 Personal Income tax rates million, as a result of possible job losses and shorter Taxable income up to $50,000 12.5% working hours in the services sector. Taxable income over $50,000 28.5% Personal Allowance - $25,000

Stabilization measures Stabilization measures

Household Survival Program – Implement a NIS support – Government will provide Household Survival Program (injecting $20 million) supplemental support to the NIS Unemployment consisting of three initiatives to assist displaced Fund as needed and within the context of available workers. Those being laid off are entitled to fiscal space. unemployment benefits. Unemployment benefits – Those who are laid off Welfare Support – Where, as a result of COVID- fully will receive unemployment benefits for six 19, a household is left with no person employed, months and those on short weeks will receive 60% Government will provide a minimum income for for the days they are not working. those households and make available through the Bank Financing – all commercial banks have Welfare Department an amount up to $600 per agreed to a six-month payment moratorium on month during this period of hardship. existing loans and mortgages for persons and Adopt-a-Family Program – Government is businesses directly impacted by COVID-19. working with persons who have been fortunate to “Homes For All” Program – Government is to use be earning more than $100,000 a year to adopt a $50 million in the Housing Credit Fund to unlock a vulnerable family and provide them with very further $200 million of financing from the banks to much needed support of $600 per month or to help over 1,000 households construct and own an contribute to an Adopt-a-family fund chaired by the affordable home. The project is projected to start in Director of Finance. three months and is initially targeted at persons with an household income of $4,000 per month.

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Health Care Schools

QEH and polyclinics - An additional $40 million School repairs - Carry out urgently needed repairs will be made available to refurbish the QEH and to schools to the tune of $25 million, which will local polyclinics with critical equipment and any build capacity for disaster preparedness, including supplementary goods needed to manage and the coming hurricane season. contain the spread of the virus. School meals facility - In addition, Government is Hospital equipment - Of the above noted $40 working to complete the construction of the school million, $32.5 million is expected to be capital meals building at Six Roads at a cost of $6 million spending for the purchase of ventilators, beds etc. to enhance the ability to provide food either to while the remaining $7.5 million assumed to be schools or communities as needed. spent on restocking medication as well as other medical supplies. Orders have already been placed for $19 million in equipment and medical supplies for QEH. Quarantine and isolation facility - Another $20 million in capital expenditure is needed for the constructing and outfitting of a quarantine and isolation facility at Harrison’s Point in the north of the country. This facility is already under renovation.

Infrastructure Infrastructure

Government building repairs - Carry out much Capital Projects - Fast track a number of needed repairs on selected government buildings government capital projects already funded by the at a cost of $20 million. Caribbean Development Bank: Repairs to the Industrial Complex - Carry out — the $6.5 million, Speightstown Flood Mitigation repairs to the Industrial Development Complex Project buildings which house mechanics and — the $10.2 million Constitution River Flood entrepreneurs at a cost of $10 million. Mitigation Project, and Energy/Oil Prices - Support and facilitate the — the Fairchild Street, rehabilitation project ($4.6 Barbados National Oil Company Limited (BNOCL) million). and Barbados Light and Power Company Limited (BL&P) in engaging in a hedging exercise to lock in the currently low oil price for a period of up to two years.

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Tourism – Pre Covid-19 Tourism - Stabilization measures

The Prime Minister indicated that there were signs Marketing initiatives - In the tourism sector of positive growth in the tourism sector in the Government will work with the BTMI to develop an second half of 2019. The tourism sector expanded enhanced marketing and airlift support plan to by around 3%, reflecting the sustained marketing quick return visitors to the at the end of the efforts in Barbados’ key source markets, along with crisis. increased airlift capacity. Staff training - The National Training Initiative will The reduction in tourist arrivals is expected to refocus its efforts on the most vulnerable tourism impact those revenues that have been earmarked and related sectors and will work with these sectors for a number of State Owned Enterprises and to best incorporate additional training with short- Agencies namely, the Airline Travel and Tourism week initiatives. Development Fee, as well as the Health Service Other measures having a direct impact on Levy whose receipts are used to finance both the companies and individuals - In addition the BTMI as well as the QEH. measures which impact companies and individuals Loss in revenues related to these taxes is likely to directly will be applied within the tourism sector. total $29.3 million to $41.5 million. While these revenues do not impact on budgeted receipts, they will impact transfers to public institutions as government will now have to provide these amounts to the respective SOEs to cover their operational expenses.*

*Extract

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. 10 KPMG 2020 Commentary Sector Driven Incentives - Construction & Agriculture

Construction – Pre Covid-19 Construction - Stabilization measures

Increased construction activity on small projects Project Value (in millions) and other medium-scale commercial ventures Started Projects: partially offset the absence of major tourism-related Sam Lord's Castle $400 projects in the current period. Ape's Hill Golf Course - Improvements $20 Government continues to work to improve the The Crane Not quantified timeliness of the planning approval process and Sub total (A) $420 has sought to work with large developers to ensure Project Value (in millions) the commencement of large scale projects in 2020. Projects to be started: Expansion of Sandals Dover $60 Indigo redevelopment of the old $150 Caribee Hotel Royalton redevelopment of the old $200 Discovery Bay Hotel Sagicor Retirement Villages project $200 Hyatt Ziva Project $400 Sub total (B) $1,010 Total (A+B) $1,430 The Government is working with private investors on a range of series of renewable energy investments including a $300 million Green Energy Park that is expected to be launched in three months.

Agriculture – Pre Covid-19 Agriculture – Stabilization measures

Food output increased by about 3% despite Government will seek to rapidly bring into persistent drought conditions which suppressed cultivation 750 acres of land for short crop production in other non- agriculture output cultivation. such chicken and milk production. This measure is intended not only to boost employment and support our longer-term goals to enhance food security and improve linkages between the tourism and agricultural sectors, it is also intended to most importantly boost Barbados’ reserves at a critical moment by reducing food imports.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Economic Overview 12 KPMG 2020 Commentary Economic Overview

Overview The is primarily dependent on Average consumer prices increased from 3.7% in the tourism and financial services sectors. 2018 to 4.1% in 2019, despite decreasing Government, after consultation with the tourism international energy prices and stable food prices. industry, arrived at two scenarios: As per the , the surge in — A moderate scenario that assumes global inflation rate was due to the drought conditions on containment efforts prove successful in the next non-sugar agriculture, the influx of sargassum six months and results in a 50% decline in total seaweed on fish catches and increase in fees on visitor arrivals to Barbados over the six-month certain services offered by state-owned enterprises. period; and It is expected that there could be an increase in inflation as a result of Covid-19. — A more severe scenario where the global effects of the virus results in an 80% decline in total 6.0% 4.5% visitor arrivals to Barbados over the same six- 4.1% 3.7% month period 4.0% Using these scenarios, if the Government were to do 1.8% 1.5% 2.0% nothing to stimulate the economy, the direct effects on the hotel and restaurant sector along with the 0.0% -1.1% indirect effects on the retail, transport and other business services sectors, will lead to between a -2.0% 4.2% to 8.3% decline in real growth in 2020. (extract) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E

GDP growth Source: Central Bank of Barbados Unemployment The tourism and financial services sectors contribution to the 2019 nominal GDP amounted to The average unemployment rate remained flat at 13.5% and 26.7% respectively. 10.1% as of December 2019. Public sector lay-offs and slow private sector activity contributed to the In the recent past, overall economic activity has high unemployment rate. Government has begun to been subdued, primarily due to the delays in the implement new measures to manage Covid-19 start of private sector investment projects and low related unemployment. It is expected that there levels of public sector capital spending, together with could be a sharp increase in unemployment should low consumer spending. The impact of Covid-19 this impact be prolonged. will further depress economic activity and inhibit GDP. 14.0% 12.3% 2.6% 11.3% 3.0% 2.4% 12.0% 10.1% 10.1% 9.7% 10.0% 2.0% 10.0% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 8.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.4% 0.0% 6.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E -1.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020P Source: Central Bank of Barbados Source: Central Bank of Barbados, IMF

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Fiscal balance Public sector (cont.) Barbados recorded a fiscal surplus of USD$157 Depending on the long term impact of Covid-19 million or $314 million (3.0% of GDP) for the nine these expectations will need to be revised. months ending December 2019, compared to 151.2% 148.4% USD$37 million or $74 million (0.7% of GDP) for the 160% 126.3% same period in 2018. This significant improvement 119.5% is largely due to the impact of spending reforms, 120% 100.0% improved revenue collection and cost savings from the debt restructure. Government is estimating the 80% 60.0% surplus of 2019 could now reduce to half of that performance or 3% of the primary surplus. 40%

0% Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-25 Dec-33 4.0% 3.0% Source: Central Bank of Barbados 0.7% 0.0% -0.3% Foreign exchange reserves -4.0% Gross foreign exchange reserves saw a significant -4.6% -5.3% improvement in 2018 and 2019, primarily due to the -8.0% borrowing from the international financial institutions -7.6% -9.0% and the savings from suspension of the commercial -12.0% external debt payments. Reserve levels reached 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18P 2018/19E Apr-Dec Apr-Dec 2018 2019 USD$740 million or $1.5 billion by end of 2019 (an import reserve cover 18.7 weeks). This increases Source: Central Bank of Barbados Barbados’ ability to absorb the reduction in GDP growth and reserves. Public sector debt

Total gross public sector debt as a percentage of 800 20.0 GDP amounted to 148.4% by the end of 2017. Since 18.7 then, it has decreased to 119.5% by the end of 600 15.0 2019. This is primarily due to the suspension of commercial external government debt payments 400 12.9 10.0 and the restructuring of domestic debt. 11.6 11.2 Based on the GOB’s indications, it was anticipated in US$ million 200 8.2 5.0 that by 2025, the level of debt to GDP will be down 5.3 to approximately 100% and subsequently, is - - anticipated to reach a more comfortable and 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E sustainable state of approximately 60% by 2033. Foreign exchange reserves Foreign exchange reserves, cover weeks

Source: Central Bank of Barbados

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Debt restructure BERT The GOB in June 2018 announced its intention to Concurrent to the Debt Exchange Programme, the restructure its public debt (both BBD and USD GOB announced a comprehensive economic reform denominated) by way of a “Debt Exchange program titled the “Barbados Economic Recovery Programme.” and Transformation Plan” or BERT. BERT aims to restore macroeconomic stability and place the On September 7, 2018, the GOB announced an economy of Barbados on a path of strong, exchange offer for holders of BBD denominated debt sustainable and inclusive growth. as part of its Debt Exchange Programme. The domestic debt restructuring involved exchanging The reform program is expected to be conducted via existing BBD denominated T-bills, bonds and loans a three-phase approach: for new BBD denominated instruments, with Phase 1 - Review of tax revenue, the imposition of extended maturities and lower coupon rates in the new domestic and international user fees, the near term with increases in the later years, but with removal of three statutory corporations from the no principal reductions. The BBD denominated Consolidated Fund, greater tax compliance, and a exchange offer estimated at approximately broadening of the tax base on overseas visitors. USD$5.95 billion was successfully completed in November 2018. Phase 2 - Focus on expenditure reduction on Central Government and State-Owned Enterprises; On October 18, 2019, it was announced that the review of the framework within which the country’s GOB reached an agreement with regard to the International business sector will operate; and restructuring of its USD denominated commercial deliver a program of measures intended to stimulate debt. On November 9, 2019, the actual offer for the growth. exchange of this debt was launched. Under this arrangement, foreign holders will be provided Phase 3 - Continuation of the review of all remaining with new bonds to replace their current instruments. State-Owned Enterprises and departments of These new bonds will carry revised face values, Government. Determination of what expenditure is coupon rates and maturity dates. essential, what is highly desirable and what is This Debt Exchange Programme is anticipated to optional. result in Barbados moving toward its target of Phases 1 and 2 of BERT were completed in 2019 reducing its public debt to GDP to the desirable level and Phase 3 is currently underway. As per the fourth of 60% and is also anticipated to result in a further public report by the BERT monitoring committee, all re-assessment of the credit rating for Barbados. fiscal targets up to September 2019 were met. It These developments are expected to lead to an further adds, that the GOB has made a solid start on improvement in investor confidence, which will its requirement of increasing the primary balance to contribute to the overall recovery of the economy. a surplus of 6.0% of GDP in 2019/20, with actual results for the first six months of the exceeding the interim target by a wide margin mainly as a result of expenditure control.

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IMF program Credit rating In July 2018, the newly elected GOB invited the IMF Both Standard and Poor’s (“S&P”) and Moody's for discussions on IMF financial support for the GOB upgraded their Barbados local currency issuer and the BERT. After the successful discussion, the ratings, as a result of the successful completion of Executive Board of the IMF on October 1, 2018, the local component of the Debt Exchange approved a four-year Extended Arrangement under Programme and the significant improvement in the the Extended Fund Facility (“EFF”) for Barbados for macroeconomic stability. an amount equivalent to Special Drawing Right The table below highlights the positive change in the (“SDR”) $208 million (about UDS$290 million, or ratings for local debt following the commencement of 220% of Barbados’ quota in the IMF). The EFF- the Debt Exchange Programme in September 2018. supported program aims to help Barbados: restore debt sustainability, strengthen the external position, restore investor confidence and improve growth prospects. S&P Moody’s Date Rating Date Rating Following the IMF approval of the EFF, both the Caribbean Development Bank (“CDB”) and the Inter- Nov – 2018 B/B- Jul – 2019 Caa1 American Development Bank (“IADB”) approved Aug – 2018 SD Mar – 2017 Caa3 policy-based loans. These loans helped Barbados Jun – 2018 CC Apr – 2016 Caa1 rebuild reserves, and supported the reform process. Sep – 2017 CCC In December 2019, the Executive Board of the IMF Mar – 2017 CCC+ completed the second review of Barbados’ economic reform program supported by an Similar to the local currency rating, the Barbados arrangement under the EFF. The completion of the foreign currency rating too saw an upgrade. In review allowed the authorities to draw the equivalent December 2019, S&P raised its long-term and short- of SDR $35 million (about USD$48 million), bringing term foreign currency ratings from ‘SD/SD’ to ‘B-/B’ total disbursements to the equivalent of SDR $105 and assigned its ‘B-’ foreign currency issue rating to million (about USD$145 million). foreign currency debt delivered as part of the Debt Exchange Programme.

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Our Firm KPMG in Barbados and in the Offices in, Eastern Caribbean form part of the Practising in, international network of member 4countries firms comprised of over 219,000 9countries professionals in the member firms . Barbados . Saint Lucia worldwide which collaborate across . Barbados . . Antigua and . St. Vincent industry, service and national . . Saint Lucia Barbuda and the boundaries to deliver professional Grenadines services in 147 countries for the . Antigua and. St. Kitts and benefit of their clients, KPMG Barbuda Nevis Celebrating, people and the capital markets. . . St. Vincent . and the Member firms are located in Grenadines 40+years Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, of service Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (also practising in Our people Anguilla, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis). 13 70% |30% Gender split (F | M) Our practice has strong professional Partners and contacts with the KPMG member Directors firms in , , Cayman , the Dutch 150+ Caribbean (practising in , Professionals and St. Maarten), , and Turks & Caicos Islands, all of which Our member firms have similar cultures and operating

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Audit

Michael Edghill Carol Nicholls Andrew Brathwaite Lisa Brathwaite Baldwin Alcindor Head of Audit Senior Partner Partner, Audit Partner, Audit Partner, Audit M: +1 246 231 1111 M: +1 246 243 5696 M: +1 246 230 8188 M: +1 246 233 6526 M: +1 758 728 9200 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected]

Tax People Performance and Culture Advisory

Louisa Lewis-Ward Myrleen Sewitt Melanie Greenidge Dave Collins Partner, Tax Director, People Performance and Culture Director,Advisory Director,Advisory M: +1 246 231 0348 M: +1 246 233 6527 M: +1 246 253 4733 M: +1 246 230 5655 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected]

Advisory

Lisa Taylor Christopher Brome Craig Waterman Brian Glasgow Managing Partner Partner, Advisory Partner, Advisory Partner, Advisory M: +1 246 233 5703 M: +1 246 243 8709 M: +1 246 230 4147 M: +1 784 493 9864 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected]

© 2020© 20 KPMG,20 KPMG, a Barbados a Barbados and and Eastern Eastern Caribbean Caribbean partnership, partnership, registered registered in inBarbados, Barbados, Antigua Antigua and and Barbuda, Barbuda, Saint Saint Lucia Lucia and and St. St. V Vincentincent and and the the Grenadines, Grenadines,and a member and a firm member of the firmKPMG of the network KPMG of network independent of independent member firms member affiliated firms with affiliated KPMG withInternational KPMG International Cooperative Cooperative (“KPMG International”), (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All a Swissrights entity. reserved. All rights KPMG reserved. and the KPMG KPMG logo and arethe registeredKPMG logo trademarks are registered of KPMG trademarks International of KPMG Cooperative International (“KPMG Cooperative International”), (“KPMG a Swiss International”),entity. a Swiss entity. 19 KPMG 2020 Commentary Glossary

% Percentage 000’s Thousands BBD Barbados dollar BERT Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation BRA Barbados Revenue Authority BTMI Barbados Tourism Marketing Inc. BWA CDB Caribbean Development Bank COVID-19 Coronavirus disease E Estimated EU European Union GOB GDP IDB Inter-American Development Bank IMF International Monetary Fund NIS National Insurance Scheme NSRL National Social Responsibility Levy OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development QEH Queen Elizabeth Hospital SOE State Owned Enterprise SSA Sanitation Service Authority sq. ft. Square foot S&P Standard and Poor's USD dollar VAT Value Added Tax YoY Year-on-Year

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Louisa Lewis-Ward Christopher Brome Partner, Tax Partner, Advisory T: +1 246 434 3941 T: + 1 246 434 3907 M: +1 246 231 0348 M: +1 246 243 8709 E: [email protected] E: [email protected]

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