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Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research Wednesday, April 20, 2016 China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research Sinco Pharma (6833 HK) Milo Liu Hayden Zhang (852) 3189 6711 (852) 3189 6754 Emerging MPCM contender in the booming plasma industry [email protected] [email protected] rd 3 largest MPCM provider in China. Sinco Pharmaceutical Holdings Ltd (“Sinco” Initiation of Coverage or the “company”) is one of the largest Marketing, Promotion and Channel Management (MPCM) provider in China with a market share of 6.4% in terms of revenue in 2014. Sinco is also the sole MPCM provider offering imported plasma- BUY based product from abroad, currently the 4th largest human albumin provider in Previous terms of revenue in China in 2014. The company has grown rapidly via new products N/A introduction and currently becoming a meaningful MPCM contender in China. Sinco Price HK$0.7 generates profit by purchasing products from suppliers and on-selling to distributors 12-month Target Price across China. Under this business model, Sinco books its sales to distributors as HK$1.08 (+54%) (Potential upside) revenue while taking the COGS as purchasing prices from the suppliers. Unique presence in the plasma industry: Plasma industry is currently one of the Previous N/A fastest-growing and most defensive sub-sector among China’s pharmaceutical industry. This is mainly attributable to: 1) irreplaceable nature in emergency; 2) Price Performance significant unmet demand; 3) favourable while highly regulated government (%) 20 6833 HSI Index initiatives; and 4) technological improvements in the manufacturing process. Much better SG&A management: Sinco currently operates on an asset-light 10 model which is different from its peers that are on asset-heavy model with internal 0 marketing teams. One major advantage of this business model is that it offers more flexibility and effectiveness when it comes to marketing and promotion, which -10 greatly boosts efficiency to the company with significantly better SG&A -20 management compared with others. Mar/16 New products provide inorganic growth and synergies: Octapharma mainly Source: Bigdata focuses on recombinant coagulation factor VIII (Factor VIII), which is another % 1m 6m 12m product that is allowed to be imported from overseas. Together with its existing 6833 HK (13.9) (15.0) (15.0) product line, Sinco is likely to enjoy synergy effect from its increased economies of HSI 2.4 (8.3) (23.5) scale in the future, in our view. Superior growth over its peers: Sinco has grown fast in recent years with revenue Industry: Healthcare CAGR of 247% and adjusted net profit CAGR of 572% during FY12-15, the highest Hang Seng Index 21,436 among its peers, partly due to its smaller base effect. We expect 29%/29%/22% HSCEI 9,244 revenue growth in FY16E-18E, mainly driven by the volume ramp-up among its Key Data major products. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB140mn/191mn/245mn (at 52-week range (HK$) 0.66-1.02 a CAGR of 32%) during the period, which is driven by fast top-line growth, better Market cap (HK$ mn) 1,131 margins and efficiencies down the road. Avg. daily volume (mn) 3.7 BVPS (HK$) FY15 0.3 Valuation: Our target price of HK$1.08 is derived from the average of the two Shareholdings Structure valuation methods (DCF: HK$1.11 and P/E: HK$1.05), which implies FY16E P/E of Huang Xiangbin 65.0% 10.6x. Sinco is current trading at 6.8x FY16E P/E which we believe is attractive Liu Sichuan 5.6% compared to its counterparts at north of 9x. Prestigious Leader Ltd 3.9% Risks: 1) concentration risk; 2) currency risk; 3) bargaining power with suppliers Free float 22.6% might diminish over time; 4) licensing risk; and 5) limited operating history. Related Research Financials N/A RMB mn 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue 532.5 950.1 1,096.1 1,410.1 1,816.0 2,219.3 Growth (%) 1935.0% 78.4% 15.4% 28.7% 28.8% 22.2% Adjusted Net profit 43.0 80.1 83.6 139.9 191.0 245.3 Growth (%) 15475.0% 86.4% 4.4% 67.3% 36.5% 28.4% ROE (%) 88.9% 64.9% 35.9% 19.4% 25.9% 24.9% ROA (%) 11.4% 18.2% 15.0% 14.5% 19.8% 20.3% P/E (x) 16.6 8.9 8.5 6.8 5.0 3.9 P/B (x) 14.7 5.8 3.7 1.8 1.3 1.0 Sources: Company, CMS (HK) estimates Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. China Merchants Securities (CMS) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. CMS research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. CMS research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. 1 Wednesday, April 20, 2016 Investment Summary Serious MPCM contender with unique presence in the booming plasma industry Being the 3rd largest MPCM provider in China’s pharmaceutical market in terms of revenue in 2014, Sinco is comfortably riding on the fast growing MPCM industry in China, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of c.25% from 2015 to 2019, according to Frost & Sullivan report. The company is also the sole MPCM provider offers imported plasma-based product from abroad, surpassing other domestic plasma manufactures such as China Biologic Products (CBPO US) and Shanghai RAAS (002252 CH) to become the 4th largest human albumin provider with 7.3% market share in terms of revenue in China in 2014. Well positioned to lock in favourable terms with its suppliers Sinco focuses on small/medium-sized overseas suppliers which are not be able to establish their on the ground in- house marketing, promotion and sales in China. Since they are highly dependent on MPCMs such as Sinco, the company could easily secure longer contractual period and exclusive right to promote and sell some of the core products from its suppliers, in our view. Sinco is currently the sole service provider for Octapharma to promote human albumin product in 24 provinces in China, and contribute over 75% of Octapharma’s sales of its human albumin product in China in 2014. Factor VIII could potentially be the game changer Factor VIII has great market potential as it is currently extremely under-supplied and only been used for urgent medical treatment for patients with hemophilia in China, while the product is widely used to improve vitality and lifespans in U.S. and other mature markets. Octapharma reached a major milestone in 2014 that entered into the recombinant market when Nuwiq became the first recombinant factor VIII from a human cell line to be approved in Europe. We expect this to be the game changer for Sinco if the company could leverage the relationship to tap into this nascent market in the future. Relationship with Kelun Long-term collaboration with leading and reputable pharmaceutical companies allows Sinco to leverage big companies’ (such as Kelun Pharmaceuticals and Guangzhou Pharmaceuticals) platform advantage to further develop business and distribution network; improve its inventory management; benefit the company with sustainable long- term growth prospects; and gradually gain reputation within the industry to draw more market shares from the peers. Superior growth over its peers The exponential growth of Sinco in recent years was mainly due to the much smaller scale compared with its peers. We expect 29%/29%/22% revenue growth in FY16E-18E, mainly driven by the volume ramp-up among its major products. Adjusted net profit (adj. for the listing expense) of RMB140mn/191mn/245mn (at a CAGR of 32%) is driven by 1) fast top-line growth; 2) better margin as a result of better product mix and potential ASP increase in human albumin product; 3) improve in efficiency owing to its asset-light business model as well as internal synergy; and 4) lower tax rate. Limited ASP erosions from the tendering Except the human albumin products that are subject to price increase, we expect stable ASP for company’s other products in the upcoming years as we believe the drugs are relatively more defensive to the price erosion from the tendering, thanks to the low price strategy by the management that the current selling price is well below the tendering price, poised for better penetration in the new markets. Valuation Valuation of the stock is attractive compared to its peers, dispite slightly different business approach among each companies. Recent market sentiment towards the healthcare industry is relatively weak, but we believe Sinco possessed a great opportunity for the future re-rating, if the company is gradually building its credibility and track record down the road. To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 2 Wednesday, April 20, 2016 Focus Charts Figure 1: Business model Figure 2: Market share of MPCMs in China (2014) Sinco Pharma Manufacturers Hospital level China Medical 6.4% System 19.7% product information Pioneer Pharma Sinco Pharma 10.3% Physicians Eddingpharm generate demand 5.3% clinical promotions NT Pharma Distributors, 5.8% Sub-Distributors fulfill demand Hospital Others 52.5% Information Patients Products Source: Company, CMS (HK) Source: Frost & Sullivan report, CMS (HK) Figure 3: Total sales breakdown (RMB mn) Figure 4: Margin trend and forecasts Human Albumin Axetine Mercedof Taurolite 20% Gross Margin Adj. Operating Margin Adj. Net Margin TAD Esafosfina Q10 2,500 18% 16.5% 15.3% 16% 15.0% 13.9% 13.7% 13.4% 2,000 14% 12.1% 11.5% 11.1% 12% 10.6% 9.7% 1,500 9.2% 10% 11.1% 10.5% 9.9% 8% 8.1% 1,000 8.4% 6% 7.6% 500 4% 2% 0 0% 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Source: Company, CMS (HK) estimates Source: Company, CMS (HK) estimates Figure
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