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TECHNICAL REPORT Nordic Green to Scale for Countries TECHNICAL REPORT Nordic Green to Scale for countries Unlocking the potential of climate solutions in Kenya and Ethiopia Technical report: Nordic Green to Scale for countries Unlocking the potential of climate solutions in Kenya and Ethiopia Mbeo Ogeya, Anne Nyambane and Hannah Wanjiru TemaNord 2018:550 Technical report: Nordic Green to Scale for countries Unlocking the potential of climate solutions in Kenya and Ethiopia Mbeo Ogeya, Anne Nyambane and Hannah Wanjiru (SEI Africa Centre) ISBN 978-92-893-5853-8 (PRINT) ISBN 978-92-893-5854-5 (PDF) ISBN 978-92-893-5855-2 (EPUB) http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/TN2018-550 TemaNord 2018:550 ISSN 0908-6692 Standard: PDF/UA-1 ISO 14289-1 © Nordic Council of Ministers 2018 Cover photo: iStock by Getty Images Print: Rosendahls Printed in Denmark Disclaimer This publication was funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the Nordic Council of Ministers’ views, opinions, attitudes or recommendations. Rights and permissions This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 Translations: If you translate this work, please include the following disclaimer: This translation was not pro- duced by the Nordic Council of Ministers and should not be construed as official. The Nordic Council of Ministers cannot be held responsible for the translation or any errors in it. Adaptations: If you adapt this work, please include the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by the Nordic Council of Ministers. Responsibility for the views and opinions expressed in the adaptation rests solely with its author(s). The views and opinions in this adaptation have not been approved by the Nordic Council of Ministers. Third-party content: The Nordic Council of Ministers does not necessarily own every single part of this work. The Nordic Council of Ministers cannot, therefore, guarantee that the reuse of third-party content does not in- fringe the copyright of the third party. If you wish to reuse any third-party content, you bear the risks associ- ated with any such rights violations. You are responsible for determining whether there is a need to obtain per- mission for the use of third-party content, and if so, for obtaining the relevant permission from the copyright holder. Examples of third-party content may include, but are not limited to, tables, figures or images. Photo rights (further permission required for reuse): Any queries regarding rights and licences should be addressed to: Nordic Council of Ministers/Publication Unit Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K Denmark Phone +45 3396 0200 [email protected] Nordic co-operation Nordic co-operation is one of the world’s most extensive forms of regional collaboration, involving Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland. Nordic co-operation has firm traditions in politics, economics and culture and plays an important role in European and international forums. The Nordic community strives for a strong Nordic Region in a strong Europe. Nordic co-operation promotes regional interests and values in a global world. The values shared by the Nordic countries help make the region one of the most innovative and competitive in the world. The Nordic Council of Ministers Nordens Hus Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K, Denmark Tel.: +45 3396 0200 www.norden.org Download and order Nordic publications from www.norden.org/nordpub Contents Executive summary ...................................................................................................................7 1. Introduction........................................................................................................................ 9 1.1 Green to Scale: concept and background .................................................................. 9 1.2 The East Africa Community: Strategies and Plans ...................................................10 1.3 Research focus ........................................................................................................12 1.4 Report structure ......................................................................................................12 2. Main findings ..................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Emission abatement potential ................................................................................. 13 2.2 Costs and savings ....................................................................................................14 2.3 Barriers ...................................................................................................................14 2.4 Policy recommendations ......................................................................................... 15 3. Methodological approach .................................................................................................. 17 3.1 Quantitative analysis of emissions abatement potential and costs ........................... 17 3.2 Qualitative analysis of enablers, barriers and co-benefits ........................................ 19 4. General baseline ................................................................................................................21 4.1 Energy sector ..........................................................................................................21 4.2 Transport sector..................................................................................................... 25 4.3 Building and industrial energy efficiency ................................................................. 27 4.4 Agriculture and forestry ......................................................................................... 28 5. Energy sector solutions ...................................................................................................... 31 5.1 Geothermal power .................................................................................................. 31 5.2 Wind power ............................................................................................................ 35 5.3 Solar power............................................................................................................ 38 5.4 Combined heat and power in industry .................................................................... 42 6. Transport sector solutions ................................................................................................. 47 6.1 Cycling in cities ....................................................................................................... 47 7. Solutions for buildings and households .............................................................................. 51 7.1 Energy efficiency in buildings .................................................................................. 51 7.2 Improved cook stoves .............................................................................................55 8. Agriculture and forestry sector solutions ........................................................................... 59 8.1 Reduced deforestation ........................................................................................... 59 8.2 Afforestation and reforestation .............................................................................. 61 8.3 Low-carbon agriculture .......................................................................................... 66 9. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 71 References .............................................................................................................................. 73 Exekutiv sammanfattning ........................................................................................................ 77 Appendices..............................................................................................................................79 Appendix 1. Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning Tool ...............................................79 Appendix 2. Guiding questions to solutions selections ........................................................81 Appendix 3: Ethiopia focus group discussion attendance list.............................................. 82 Appendix 4: Kenya stakeholders interview list ................................................................... 83 Technical report: Nordic Green to Scale for countries 5 6 Technical report: Nordic Green to Scale for countries Executive summary The Paris Agreement was adopted by countries to enhance the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992 and to strengthen global response to the threat of climate change. The Agreement includes the goal of holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial level. Nations including Ethiopia and Kenya have made commitments by submitting their nationally determined contributions (NDC) towards reducing their emissions while maintaining development trends. Ethiopia seeks to reduce its emission by 255 MtCO2 (by 64%) in 2030 from projected BAU emissions whereas Kenya NDC targets a 30% reduction from projected emissions of 143 MtCO2e (FDRE, 2015; MoENR, 2015). In this report we explore
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