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Green Power for Africa: Overcoming the Main Constraints OVERCOMING the MAIN CONSTRAINTS GREEN POWER FOR AFRICA: Green Power for Africa: Overcoming the Main Constraints OVERCOMING THE MAIN CONSTRAINTS Editors Ana Pueyo and Simon Bawakyillenuo Volume 48 | Number 5–6 | November 2017 Introduction: Overcoming the Constraints to Green Electricity in Africa e Ana Pueyo and Simon Bawakyillenuo Planning for Electrification: On- and Off-Grid Considerations in Sub-Saharan Africa Barry Rawn and Henry Louie wledg Tr Assessing the Potential Impact of Grid-Scale Variable Renewable Energy on ansf orming o the Reliability of Electricity Supply in Kenya Dev Gruffudd Edwards, Chris J. Dent and Neal Wade elopment Kn o wledg Kn Exploring the Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Energy Transitions: e A Simulation Analysis for Kenya and Ghana 48 Volume Dirk Willenbockel, Helen Hoka Osiolo and Simon Bawakyillenuo Design and Assessment of Renewable Electricity Auctions in Sub-Saharan Africa Hugo Lucas, Pablo del Río and Mohamed Youba Sokona | Number 5–6 Number Commercial-Scale Renewable Energy in South Africa and its Progress to Date elopment Lucy Baker The Political Economy of Investment in Renewable Electricity in Kenya Helen Hoka Osiolo, Ana Pueyo and James Gachanja Dev The Political Economy of Renewable Energy Investment in Ghana | Simon Bawakyillenuo 2017 November The Political Economy of Aid for Power Sector Reform Neil McCulloch, Esméralda Sindou and John Ward orming ansf Tr ‘This IDS Bulletin underlines the enormity of the clean electrification challenge in Africa; and Transforming Development Knowledge demonstrates the benefits of a multidisciplinary approach where technical, economic, and political perspectives are involved in the design of interventions.’ ISSN 0265-5012 (print), 1759-5436 (online) DOI: 10.19088/1968-2017.159 Volume 48 | Number 5–6 | November 2017 Volume 48 (2017) IDS Bulletin The IDS Bulletin is an open access, peer-review journal No. 1 Sex Education in the Digital Era exploring emerging international development challenges. It is No. 2 Interrogating Decentralisation in Africa published bi-monthly and is the flagship publication of the Institute No. 3 Africa’s Youth Employment Challenge: New Perspectives of Development Studies, a leading global institution for research, No. 4 Courting Catastrophe? Humanitarian Policy and Practice in teaching and learning, and impact and communications, based at the a Changing Climate University of Sussex. Progressive economic, social and political change No. 1A Has Universal Development Come of Age? for everyone needs new kinds of action and relationships, shaped by new kinds of research and engagement. The IDS Bulletin aims to Volume 47 (2016) transform development knowledge, through its unique thematic No. 1 Opening Governance issues developed by global learning partnerships that bridge academic, No. 1A Connecting Perspectives on Women’s Empowerment practice and policy discourse. No. 2 Development Studies – Past, Present and Future No. 3 Ruptures and Ripple Effects in the Middle East and Beyond Publishing Manager/Bulletin Editorial Coordinator Alison Norwood No. 4 Foresight in International Development Marketing and Production Officer Gary Edwards No. 5 Power, Poverty and Inequality No. 2A States, Markets and Society – New Relationships for a New Publisher The IDS Bulletin is published by the Institute of Development Era Development Studies, Library Road, Brighton BN1 9RE, UK. No. 6 Engaged Excellence Tel: +44 (0)1273 606261. Volume 46 (2015) Cover photo Ethiopia, Benishangul-Gumuz Region. Electricity pylons, No. 1 Towards Systemic Approaches to Evaluation and Impact yet to be connected to the electricity source that is being built at the No. 2 Graduating from Social Protection? Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (a gravity dam on the Blue Nile River), No. 3 Business, State and Society: Changing Perspectives, Roles and stand next to a small village. 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No. 6 Rethinking Impact Evaluation for Development wledg wledg o This is an Open Access issue distributed under the terms of the o Periodical ID statement The IDS Bulletin (ISSN 0265-5012 print) is Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence, which published bi-monthly in January, March, May, July, September and Kn permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any Kn November. Mailing agent: Gary Edwards, Institute of Development medium, provided the original authors and source are credited. Studies, Library Road, Brighton BN1 9RE, UK. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode Tel: +44 (0)1273 606261 [email protected] Online open access This journal is available online at bulletin.ids.ac.uk. Postmaster Send all address changes to IDS Bulletin, Gary Edwards, Visit the site to search for articles and authors and register for table Institute of Development Studies, Library Road, Brighton BN1 9RE, UK. of contents email alerts. Tel: +44 (0)1273 606261 [email protected] Information for subscribers The IDS Bulletin is published in six issues Journal customer services For ordering information, claims and elopment elopment per year. any enquiry concerning your journal subscription please contact Gary Edwards, Institute of Development Studies, Library Road, Advertising enquiries Gary Edwards, Marketing and Production Officer, Dev Dev Brighton BN1 9RE, UK. Tel: +44 (0)1273 606261 [email protected] IDS Communications and Engagement Unit, [email protected] Print details printed in the UK by Nexus Design & Print Ltd, Studio 38, Adur Business Centre, Little High Street, Shoreham-by-Sea BN43 5EG, UK. Delivery terms and legal title Prices include delivery of print journals orming orming to the recipient’s address. Delivery terms are Delivery Duty Unpaid (DDU); the recipient is responsible for paying any import duty or IDS Bulletin © Institute of Development Studies 2017 taxes. Legal title passes to the customer on despatch. ansf www.ids.ac.uk IDS is a charitable company limited by guarantee and ansf ISSN 0265-5012 (print), 1759-5436 (online) Tr registered in England (No. 877338). Tr Transforming Development Knowledge Volume 48 | Number 5–6 | November 2017 Green Power for Africa: Overcoming the Main Constraints Editors Ana Pueyo and Simon Bawakyillenuo Introduction: Overcoming the Constraints to Green Electricity in Africa Ana Pueyo and Simon Bawakyillenuo 1 Planning for Electrification: On- and Off-Grid Considerations in Sub-Saharan Africa Barry Rawn and Henry Louie 9 Assessing the Potential Impact of Grid-Scale Variable Renewable Energy on the Reliability of Electricity Supply in Kenya Gruffudd Edwards, Chris J. Dent and Neal Wade 29 Exploring the Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Energy Transitions: A Simulation Analysis for Kenya and Ghana Dirk Willenbockel, Helen Hoka Osiolo and Simon Bawakyillenuo 49 Design and Assessment of Renewable Electricity Auctions in Sub-Saharan Africa Hugo Lucas, Pablo del Río and Mohamed Youba Sokona 79 Commercial-Scale Renewable Energy in South Africa and its Progress to Date Lucy Baker 101 The Political Economy of Investment in Renewable Electricity in Kenya Helen Hoka Osiolo, Ana Pueyo and James Gachanja 119 The Political Economy of Renewable Energy Investment in Ghana Simon Bawakyillenuo 141 The Political Economy of Aid for Power Sector Reform Neil McCulloch, Esméralda Sindou and John Ward 165 Glossary 185 Acknowledgements We acknowledge the very helpful comments and suggestions from individuals who peer-reviewed the articles in this IDS Bulletin, including: Andrew Barnett, Peter Newell, Daniel Inkoom, Aryestis Vlahakis, Stephen Spratt, Guy Doyle, Pedro Linares, Andrew Scott, Wei Shen, Tim Foxon, Natalia Caldes, Wisdom Akpalu, Robert Osei, and Chris Dent. Funder acknowledgements This issue of the IDS Bulletin was produced with funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Department for International Development (DFID) through a grant for the research project ‘Green Growth Diagnostics for Africa’ (EP/L002507/1). Vol. 48 No. 5–6 November 2017: ‘Green Power for Africa: Overcoming the Main Constraints’ DOI: 10.19088/1968-2017.159 Institute of Development Studies | bulletin.ids.ac.uk Notes on Contributors Lucy Baker is a Senior Research Fellow in the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex and a Visiting Fellow at the Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. Lucy’s areas of research include: the political economy of energy; socio-technical transitions; and low-carbon development in low- and middle-income countries. Before working in academia, she worked for ten years in the fields of environment, development, and human rights.
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