TECHNICAL REPORT Nordic Green to Scale for countries Unlocking the potential of climate solutions in Kenya and Ethiopia Technical report: Nordic Green to Scale for countries Unlocking the potential of climate solutions in Kenya and Ethiopia Mbeo Ogeya, Anne Nyambane and Hannah Wanjiru TemaNord 2018:550 Technical report: Nordic Green to Scale for countries Unlocking the potential of climate solutions in Kenya and Ethiopia Mbeo Ogeya, Anne Nyambane and Hannah Wanjiru (SEI Africa Centre) ISBN 978-92-893-5853-8 (PRINT) ISBN 978-92-893-5854-5 (PDF) ISBN 978-92-893-5855-2 (EPUB) http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/TN2018-550 TemaNord 2018:550 ISSN 0908-6692 Standard: PDF/UA-1 ISO 14289-1 © Nordic Council of Ministers 2018 Cover photo: iStock by Getty Images Print: Rosendahls Printed in Denmark Disclaimer This publication was funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the Nordic Council of Ministers’ views, opinions, attitudes or recommendations. 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The Nordic Council of Ministers Nordens Hus Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K, Denmark Tel.: +45 3396 0200 www.norden.org Download and order Nordic publications from www.norden.org/nordpub Contents Executive summary ...................................................................................................................7 1. Introduction........................................................................................................................ 9 1.1 Green to Scale: concept and background .................................................................. 9 1.2 The East Africa Community: Strategies and Plans ...................................................10 1.3 Research focus ........................................................................................................12 1.4 Report structure ......................................................................................................12 2. Main findings ..................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Emission abatement potential ................................................................................. 13 2.2 Costs and savings ....................................................................................................14 2.3 Barriers ...................................................................................................................14 2.4 Policy recommendations ......................................................................................... 15 3. Methodological approach .................................................................................................. 17 3.1 Quantitative analysis of emissions abatement potential and costs ........................... 17 3.2 Qualitative analysis of enablers, barriers and co-benefits ........................................ 19 4. General baseline ................................................................................................................21 4.1 Energy sector ..........................................................................................................21 4.2 Transport sector..................................................................................................... 25 4.3 Building and industrial energy efficiency ................................................................. 27 4.4 Agriculture and forestry ......................................................................................... 28 5. Energy sector solutions ...................................................................................................... 31 5.1 Geothermal power .................................................................................................. 31 5.2 Wind power ............................................................................................................ 35 5.3 Solar power............................................................................................................ 38 5.4 Combined heat and power in industry .................................................................... 42 6. Transport sector solutions ................................................................................................. 47 6.1 Cycling in cities ....................................................................................................... 47 7. Solutions for buildings and households .............................................................................. 51 7.1 Energy efficiency in buildings .................................................................................. 51 7.2 Improved cook stoves .............................................................................................55 8. Agriculture and forestry sector solutions ........................................................................... 59 8.1 Reduced deforestation ........................................................................................... 59 8.2 Afforestation and reforestation .............................................................................. 61 8.3 Low-carbon agriculture .......................................................................................... 66 9. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 71 References .............................................................................................................................. 73 Exekutiv sammanfattning ........................................................................................................ 77 Appendices..............................................................................................................................79 Appendix 1. Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning Tool ...............................................79 Appendix 2. Guiding questions to solutions selections ........................................................81 Appendix 3: Ethiopia focus group discussion attendance list.............................................. 82 Appendix 4: Kenya stakeholders interview list ................................................................... 83 Technical report: Nordic Green to Scale for countries 5 6 Technical report: Nordic Green to Scale for countries Executive summary The Paris Agreement was adopted by countries to enhance the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992 and to strengthen global response to the threat of climate change. The Agreement includes the goal of holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial level. Nations including Ethiopia and Kenya have made commitments by submitting their nationally determined contributions (NDC) towards reducing their emissions while maintaining development trends. Ethiopia seeks to reduce its emission by 255 MtCO2 (by 64%) in 2030 from projected BAU emissions whereas Kenya NDC targets a 30% reduction from projected emissions of 143 MtCO2e (FDRE, 2015; MoENR, 2015). In this report we explore