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Critical Rare Earths, National Security, and US-China Interactions

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Critical Rare Earths, National Security, and US-China Interactions CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Browse Reports & Bookstore TERRORISM AND Make a charitable contribution HOMELAND SECURITY For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the Pardee RAND Graduate School View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow’s faculty committee. Dissertation Critical Rare Earths, National Security, and U.S.-China Interactions A Portfolio Approach to Dysprosium Policy Design David L. An C O R P O R A T I O N Dissertation Critical Rare Earths, National Security, and U.S.-China Interactions A Portfolio Approach to Dysprosium Policy Design David L. An This document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2014 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Brian Chow (Chair), Charles Wolf, Jr., and Deborah Elms. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2015 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Dedication For my father, who modeled a life defined by the rarest mix of virtues: fierce love, unbounded grace, profound gratitude, and unrelenting perseverance. Love you dad. iii Table of Contents Dedication .................................................................................................................................................... iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ xi List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ xiii List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................. xv Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................................................... xvii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................... xxi Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. xxiii Research Introduction ...................................................................................................................... xxiii Dysprosium Supply Risk – Politics, Economics, and Geology ....................................................... xxiii Dysprosium Material Importance: The NdFeB Permanent Magnet ................................................ xxiv Dysprosium, the Most Critical Rare Earth ....................................................................................... xxiv U.S. Policy Options for Increasing Resiliency ................................................................................. xxv Three Sweet Spot Optimal Portfolios for Three Budget Ranges ...................................................... xxv Chapter 1 – Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 2 Research Findings ..................................................................................................................................... 2 The Policy Challenge ............................................................................................................................ 2 Policy Solution ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Policy Relevance ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Research Contribution .............................................................................................................................. 6 Contribution 1 – Consolidated Dysprosium Narrative .......................................................................... 6 Contribution 2 – New Criticality Reduction Planning Framework....................................................... 7 Contribution 3 – Sweet Spot Portfolios for Dysprosium Criticality Reduction .................................... 7 Practical Policy Planning Benefits ........................................................................................................ 7 Dysprosium Criticality .............................................................................................................................. 8 Criticality Defined ................................................................................................................................ 8 Dysprosium Is Most Critical ................................................................................................................. 9 Roadmap of Research Chapters .............................................................................................................. 10 The Policy Challenge – Chapters 2, 3, and 4 ...................................................................................... 11 The Policy Solutions – Chapters 5, 6, and 7 ....................................................................................... 11 Chapter Summary ................................................................................................................................... 11 v Chapter 2 – The Politics and Economics of Rare Earth Elements .............................................................. 13 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 14 China’s Path to Rare Earth Dominance .................................................................................................. 15 China’s Geological Endowment ......................................................................................................... 15 Beijing’s Push on Rare Earths Industry Development ........................................................................ 17 Rare Earths as a “Geopolitical Lever?” .............................................................................................. 26 The Cost of Rare Earth Monopoly ...................................................................................................... 27 Beijing’s Seller’s Remorse.................................................................................................................. 29 China’s Controversial Way Forward ...................................................................................................... 31 Environmental Protection Laws .........................................................................................................
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