Centre for Policy on Ageing Information Service Selected Readings Disability in Older Age May 2021 The Centre for Policy on Ageing’s selected readings are drawn from material held on the CPA Ageinfo database of ageing and older age. All items are held by the CPA library and information service, which is open to the public by appointment. Photocopies may be ordered where copyright laws permit. Centre for Policy on Ageing Tavis House, 1-6 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9NA Telephone +44 (0)20 7553 6500 Facsimile +44 (0)20 7553 6501 Email
[email protected] Website www.cpa.org.uk 2021 The impact of long-term care policy on the percentage of older adults with disabilities cared for by family members in China: a system dynamics simulation; by Rong Peng, Bei Wu.: Sage, March-April 2021, pp 147- 155. Research on Aging, vol 43, nos 3-4, March-April 2021, pp 147-155. This study examined the impact of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on the family caregiving burden in China. System dynamics (SD) methodology was used to construct an LTC delivery system model that simulates the demand of LTC, living options, and LTC service use for disabled older adults. The model was based on three policy variables including the proportion of payment from LTC insurance, the growth rate of beds in LTC institutions, and the time to adjusting the capacity of community-based care. Results showed that the percentage of older adults with disabilities cared for by family members was projected to increase from 92.6% in 2015 to 97.8% in 2035, assuming no policy changes; under the mixed policy scenario, this percentage would reduce significantly to 63.8% in 2035.