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03 CFP Sabato Ch3.Indd Sabato Highlights✰✰✰ 3 ✰The 2000 Presidential and ✰✰ ✰Congressional Contests Chaos in Florida, Predictability in Virginia Overall ☑ The disputed presidential election of 2000 passed quietly in Republican Virginia, with George W. Bush defeating Al Gore by the relatively comfortable margin of 52.5 percent to 44.4 percent. With the exception of 1964, when the Old Dominion voted for Lyndon B. Johnson, the state has gone Republican for president every four years since and including 1952. ☑ Time fi nally ran out for Democratic U.S. Senator and former Governor Charles S. Robb in 2000. Former Governor George F. Allen denied Robb his third term by the reasonably close margin of 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent. ☑ The combination of close presidential and Senate contests attracted a record 2.79 million Virginians to the polls—52.8 percent of those age 18 or older. This represented a 13 percent increase over the 1996 presidential election (which also featured a tight Senate race). Presidential Contest in Virginia ☑ The closeness of the election was refl ected slightly in Virginia. George W. Bush’s father had carried the state by over 20 percentage points, nearly reaching the 60 percent mark in 1988, compared to his son’s less than 6- point lead over the combined liberal votes of Al Gore and the Green party’s Ralph Nader in 2000. Nonetheless, Bush had a broad- based win, sweeping 83 of 95 counties and 21 of 40 cities. ☑ More than any other single indicator, the gender gap explained the presidential result. Gore won women, 51 percent to 47 percent, but Bush won men by a much larger 58 percent to 37 percent—about twice as well as Bush did with men nationally. ☑ Racially, Bush easily outdistanced Gore among whites, 60 percent to 37 per- cent, while doing a bit better among African Americans (14 percent) than his national average of 9 percent. 39 ☑ The core of Bush’s vote was rural and suburban; Gore ran well primarily in central cities and black- majority localities. U.S. Senate Race ☑ In most voter categories, the Allen- Robb match- up closely paralleled the Bush- Gore results. For instance, Virginia Independents sided with the Republicans, with Bush receiving 56 percent and Allen 58 percent. ☑ Regionally, Robb was strong only in Northern Virginia and majority African American localities. Allen’s consistent backing in rural areas powered another statewide win for him. U.S. House of Representatives ☑ Eight incumbents were reelected to the U.S. House, and Republicans won the three open seats (a net gain of one). The GOP’s Ed Schrock replaced retir- ing Democratic Congressman Owen Pickett in the Norfolk- Virginia Beach 2nd district. As of 2001, the Virginia U.S. House delegation consisted of six Republicans, four Democrats, and one Republican- leaning Independent (Virgil Goode of the 5th district). ☑ Republican House candidates received 51.4 percent of the votes in the contests where both parties had a nominee; the Democrats garnered 46.4 percent. Campaign Money ☑ The Senate race in Virginia was the seventh most expensive in the nation, cost- ing $17.5 million between the two candidates. Allen outspent Robb, $10.9 million to $6.6 million. ☑ Spending in Virginia’s U.S. House contests increased from $5.6 million in 1998 to $9.4 million in 2000. 40 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 ✰✰✰ 3 ✰The 2000 Presidential and ✰✰ ✰Congressional Contests Chaos in Florida, Predictability in Virginia Introduction The year 2000 witnessed one of the closest and most chaotic elections in United States history. From the introduction of “chad” to common usage; to a virtual tie in the Florida vote; to the United States Supreme Court eff ectively deciding the win- ner of the Presidential race, Election 2000 was full of surprises. To no one’s surprise, however, Virginia once again voted Republican in the 2000 presidential election. Virginia has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1948 except once: Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. But, as in the elections of 1992 and 1996, the 2000 tally in Virginia was closer than expected. George W. Bush, Texas governor and Republican presidential nominee, had been expected to carry the Commonwealth handily—Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore was even a co- chairman of his campaign. In the fi nal weeks before Election Day, however, Virginia, like the rest of the nation, witnessed a surge by Vice President Al Gore that made the Virginia race a bit more competitive than projected. In addition, the highly anticipated U.S. Senate race between incumbent Senator Charles S. Robb, Jr., Virginia’s only statewide Democratic offi cial, and for- mer Republican Governor George F. Allen received substantial national attention, but produced a surprisingly underwhelming victory for Allen. Robb, weakened by scandal and lackluster campaigning, only narrowly defeated the extremely contro- versial Oliver North in his 1994 re- election bid, and was expected to lose handily to Allen. Although both Allen and Bush carried the vast majority of Virginia counties and cities, and Virginia no longer boasts a single Democrat in statewide offi ce (a far cry from the Democratic dominance of the Byrd era), the election of 2000 builds on the belief that Virginia is not a permanent, absolute lock for the GOP. General Election Results and Statistics On November 7, 2000, Virginia voters once again delivered the Commonwealth’s electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate from Texas named Bush. Governor George W. Bush of Texas, son of the 41st President of the United States, received 1,437,490 votes (52.5 percent) to Vice President Al Gore’s 1,217,290 (44.4 percent). Bush’s 220,000 vote victory over Gore was much closer than many ana- lysts and pollsters had predicted. Despite Virginia being controlled almost entirely by Republicans, the Gore vote plus the rather liberal vote for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader totaled 46.6 percent. It is also important to note that Vice President 41 TABLE 3.01 General Election Results in Virginia for President and U.S. Senate, 2000 Total Number of Votes Percent PRESIDENT Al Gore (D) 1,217,290 44.4 George W. Bush (R) 1,437,490 52.5 Ralph Nader (Green) 59,398 2.2 Harry Browne (Libertarian) 15,198 0.6 Pat Buchanan (Reform Party) 5,455 0.2 Howard Phillips (Conservative) 1,809 0.1 Write-ins 2,807 0.1 Total 2,739,447 100% U.S. SENATE Charles S. Robb (D) 1,296,093 47.7 George Allen (R) 1,420,460 52.3 Write-ins 1,748 0 Total 2,718,301 100% SOURCE: Offi cial election results from the State board of Elections. NOTES: Party Affi liations are abbreviated as (D) = Democrats, (R) = Republicans. Write-in votes are not permitted on the Virginia ballot. TABLE 3.02 General Election Results in Virginia for President, 1948–2000 Year Democratic Candidate Percent of Vote Republican Candidate Percent of Vote 1948 Harry S. Truman* 47.90% Thomas E. Dewey 41.00% 1952 Adlai E. Stevenson 43.4 Dwight D. Eisenhower* 56.3 1956 Adlai E. Stevenson 38.4 Dwight D. Eisenhower* 55.4 1960 John F. Kennedy 47 Richard M. Nixon* 52.4 1964 Lyndon B. Johnson* 53.5 Barry M. Goldwater 46.2 1968 Hubert H. Humphrey 32.5 Richard M. Nixon* 43.4 1972 George McGovern 30.1 Richard M. Nixon* 67.8 1976 Jimmy Carter 48 Gerald R. Ford* 49.3 1980 Jimmy Carter 40.3 Ronald Reagan* 53 1984 Walter Mondale 37.1 Ronald Reagan* 62.3 1988 Michael Dukakis 39.2 George Bush* 59.7 1992 Bill Clinton 40.6 George Bush* 45 1996 Bill Clinton 45.1 Robert Dole* 47.1 2000 Al Gore 44.4 George W. Bush* 52.5 Average 41.9 Average 52.2 SOURCE: Compiled from offi cial returns of the State Board of Elections. NOTE: The percentages of votes for the Democratic and Republican candidates do not add to 100 percent because of votes received by the independents and third-party nominees. * Denotes winner in Virginia. Gore won the popular vote nationally by over half a million votes, making Bush the fourth President in U.S. history to be selected despite receiving fewer votes. Although Bush carried 83 of Virginia’s 95 counties and 21 of the 40 cities (com- pared to 67 counties and 16 cities for Republican Bob Dole in 1996), Bush received a much smaller percentage of the vote than did his father, who carried Virginia 59.7 percent to 39.2 percent over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Besides Nader, who won a mere 2.2 percent, no other candidate on the presidential ballot received more than 0.6 percent of the Virginia vote. Table 3.02 demonstrates that in over 50 years, no Democratic presidential candidate since Harry S. Truman, except Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, has gotten 42 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 FIGURE 3.01 Comparison between George W. Bush in 2000 and George Bush in 1992, by Cities SOURCE: Offi cial Election Results provided by the State Board of Elections. FIGURE 3.02 Comparison between George W. Bush in 2000 and George Bush in 1992, by Counties SOURCE: Offi cial Election Results provided by the State Board of Elections. a plurality of the Virginia vote. In fact, Democratic candidates have averaged a paltry 41.3 percent of the vote since the Republican stranglehold began in 1952. Republicans by contrast have received an average of 53.2 percent since Dwight D. Eisenhower’s fi rst election. Bush compares relatively well at 52.5 percent, but he received a smaller percentage than any winning Republican candidate since Nixon in 1968.
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