ISSN 19401884
nternational Handbook of Academic Research and Teaching
2009 Proceedings Volume 7
Published by: Intellectbase International Consortium .
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INTELLECTBASE INTERNATIONAL CONSORTIUM Academic Conference, Atlanta, GA, Oct. 15-17, 2009 Intellectual Perspectives & Multi-Disciplinary Foundations
Conference Proceedings Fall 2009
PROGRAM COMMITTEE
Dr. David King Ms. Belinda Krigel Conference CoChair Conference CoChair
CONFERENCE ORGANIZERS & INTERNATIONAL AFFILIATES
United States Australia Europe
Ms.Sylvia Carter Mrs. Karina Dyer Mr. Kevin Kofi Ms. Tiara Walker Mr. Graeme William Mr. Benjamin Effa Mr. Ben Murray Ms. Michelle Joanne Ms. Christina Maame Ms. Loria Hampton Mrs. Wendy Morrell Mr. Kenneth Obeng
ACADEMIC ASSOCIATES
Dr. Nitya Karmakar Dr. Danka Radulovic Australian Affiliate European Affiliate
Dr. Sloan T. Letman III Dr. Peter Ross United States Affiliate United States Affiliate
www.intellectbase.org
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Published by Intellectbase International Consortium (IIC) Conference Committee: Intellectbase International Consortium, 1615 Seventh Avenue North, Nashville, TN 37208, USA
ISSN (Print): 19401876 Issued by the Library of Congress, Washington DC, USA ISSN (CDROM): 19401884 Issued by the Library of Congress, Washington DC, USA
©2009. This volume is copyright to the Intellectbase International Consortium Academic Conferences. Apart from use as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission.
EXECUTIVE EDITORIAL BOARD (EEB) AND REVIEWERS TASK PANEL (RTP)
Dr. David White Dr. Dennis Taylor Roosevelt University, USA RMIT University, Australia Dr. Danka Radulovic Dr. Harrison C. Hartman University of Belgrade, Serbia University of Georgia, USA Dr. Sloan T. Letman, III Dr. Sushil Misra American Intercontinental University, USA Concordia University, Canada Dr. Jiri Strouhal Dr. Avis Smith University of EconomicsPrague, Czech Republic New York City College of Technology, USA Dr. Joel Jolayemi Dr. Smaragda Papadopoulou Tennessee State University, USA University of Ioannina, Greece Dr. Xuefeng Wang Dr. Burnette Hamil Taiyun Normal University, China Mississippi State University, USA Dr. Jeanne Kuhler Dr. Alejandro Flores Castro Auburn University, USA Universidad de Pacifico, Peru Dr. Babalola J. Ogunkola Dr. Robert Robertson Olabisi Onabanjo University, Nigeria Southern Utah University, USA Dr. Debra Shiflett Dr. Sonal Chawla American Intercontinental University, USA Panjab University, India Dr. Cheaseth Seng Dr. Jianjun Yin RMIT University, Australia Jackson State Univerrsity, USA Dr. R. Ivan Blanco Dr. Shikha VyasDoorgapersad Texas State University – San Marcos, USA NorthWest University, South Africa Dr. Tahir Husain Dr. James D. Williams Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada Kutztown University, USA Dr. Jifu Wang Dr. Tehmina Khan University of Houston Victoria, USA RMIT University, Australia Dr. Janet Forney Dr. Werner Heyns Piedmont College, USA Savell Bird & Axon, UK Dr. Adnan Bahour Dr. Mike Thomas Zagazig University, Egypt Humboldt State University, USA Dr. Rodney Davis Dr. William Ebomoyi Troy University, USA Chicago State University, USA Dr. Mumbi Kariuki Dr. Khalid Alrawi Nipissing University, Canada AlAin University of Science and Technology, United Arab Emirates
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EXECUTIVE EDITORIAL BOARD (EEB) AND REVIEWERS TASK PANEL (RTP) (Continued)
Dr. Mohsen NaserTavakolian Dr. Joselina Cheng San Francisco State University, USA University of Central Oklahoma, USA Dr. Rafiuddin Ahmed Dr. Natalie Housel James Cook University, Australia Tennessee State University, USA Dr. Regina Schaefer Dr. Nitya Karmakar University of La Verne, USA University of Western Sydney, Australia Dr. Ademola Olatoye Dr. Anita King Olabisi Onabanjo University, Nigeria University of South Alabama, USA Dr. Dana Tesone Dr. Lloyd V. Dempster University of Central Florida, USA Texas A & M University Kingsville, USA Dr. Farhad Simyar Dr. Bijesh Tolia Chicago State University, USA Chicago State University, USA Dr. John O'Shaughnessy Dr. John Elson San Francisco State University, USA National University, USA Dr. Stephen Kariuki Dr. Demi Chung Nipissing University, Canada University of Sydney, Australia Dr. Rose Mary Newton Dr. James (Jim) Robbins University of Alabama, USA Trinity Washington University, USA Dr. Mahmoud AlDalahmeh Dr. Jeffrey (Jeff) Kim University of Wollongong, Australia University of Washington, USA Dr. Shahnawaz Muhammed Dr. Dorothea Gaulden Fayetteville State University, USA Sensible Solutions, USA Dr. Brett Sims Dr. Gerald Marquis Grambling State University, USA Tennessee State University, USA Dr. Frank Tsui Ms. Katherine Leslie Southern Polytechnic State University, USA American Intercontinental University, USA Dr. John Tures Dr. David Davis LaGrange College, USA The University of West Florida, USA Dr. Mary Montgomery Dr. Peter Ross Jacksonville State University, USA Mercer University, USA Dr. Frank Cheng Dr. Van Reidhead Central Michigan University, USA University of TexasPan American, USA Dr. Vera Lim MeiLin Dr. Denise Richardson The University of Sydney, Australia Bluefield State College, USA Dr. Robin Latimer Dr. Reza Vaghefi Lamar University, USA University of North Florida, USA Ms. Alison Duggins Dr. Jeffrey Siekpe American Intercontinental University, USA Tennessee State University, USA Dr. Michael Alexander Dr. Greg Gibbs University of Arkansas at Monticello, USA St. Bonaventure University, USA Dr. Kehinde Alebiosu Dr. Mike Rippy Olabisi Onabanjo University, Nigeria Troy University, USA
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EXECUTIVE EDITORIAL BOARD (EEB) AND REVIEWERS TASK PANEL (RTP) (Continued)
Dr. Gina Pipoli de Azambuja Dr. Steven Watts Universidad de Pacifico, Peru Pepperdine University, USA Dr. Andy Ju An Wang Dr. Ada Anyamene Southern Polytechnic State University, USA Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Nigeria Dr. Edilberto Raynes Dr. Nancy Miller Tennessee State University, USA Governors State University, USA Dr. Dobrivoje Radovanovic Dr. David F. Summers University of Belgrade, Serbia University of HoustonVictoria, USA Dr. George Romeo Dr. Robert Kitahara Rowan University, USA Troy University – Southeast Region, USA Dr. William Root Dr. Brandon Hamilton Augusta State University, USA Hamilton's Solutions, USA Dr. Natalie Weathers Dr. William Cheng Philadelphia University, USA Troy University, USA Dr. Linwei Niu Dr. Taida Kelly Claflin University, USA Governors State University, USA Dr. Nesa L’Abbe Wu Dr. Denise de la Rosa Eastern Michigan University, USA Grand Valley State University, USA Dr. Rena Ellzy Dr. Kimberly Johnson Tennessee State University, USA Auburn University Montgomery, USA Dr. Kathleen Quinn Dr. Sameer Vaidya Louisiana State University, USA Texas Wesleyan University, USA Dr. Josephine Ebomoyi Dr. Pamela Guimond Northwestern Memorial Hospital, USA Governors State University, USA Dr. Douglas Main Dr. Vivian Kirby Eastern New Mexico University, USA Kennesaw State University, USA Dr. Sonya Webb Dr. Randall Allen Montgomery Public Schools, USA Southern Utah University, USA Dr. Angela Williams Dr. Claudine Jaenichen Alabama A&M University, USA Chapman University, USA Dr. Carolyn Spillers Jewell Dr. Richard Dane Holt Fayetteville State University, USA Eastern New Mexico University, USA Dr. Kingsley Harbor Dr. BarbaraLeigh Tonelli Jacksonville State University, USA Coastline Community College, USA Dr. Barbara Mescher Dr. William J. Carnes University of Sydney, Australia Metropolitan State College of Denver, USA Dr. Chris Myers Dr. Faith Anyachebelu Texas A & M University – Commerce, USA Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Nigeria Dr. Kevin Barksdale Dr. Donna Cooner Union University, USA Colorado State University, USA Dr. Michael Campbell Dr. Kenton Fleming Florida A&M University, USA Southern Polytechnic State University, USA
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EXECUTIVE EDITORIAL BOARD (EEB) AND REVIEWERS TASK PANEL (RTP) (Continued)
Dr. Thomas Griffin Dr. Zoran Ilic Nova Southeastern University, USA University of Belgrade, Serbia Dr. James N. Holm Dr. Edilberto A. Raynes University of HoustonVictoria, USA Tennessee State University, USA Dr. Richard Dane Holt Dr. Cerissa Stevenson Veterans' Administration, USA Colorado State University, USA Dr. Rhonda Holt Dr. Donna Stringer New Mexico Christian Children's Home, USA University of HoustonVictoria, USA Dr. YuWen Huang Dr. Lesley M. Mace Spalding University, USA Auburn University Montgomery, USA Dr. Christian V. Fugar Dr. Cynthia Summers Dillard University, USA University of HoustonVictoria, USA Dr. John M. Kagochi Dr. BarbaraLeigh Tonelli University of HoustonVictoria, USA Coastline Community College, USA Dr. YongGyo Lee Dr. Rehana Whatley University of HoustonVictoria, USA Oakwood University, USA Dr. George Mansour Dr. Jianjun Yin DeVry College of NY, USA Jackson State University, USA Dr. Peter Miller Dr. Carolyn S. Payne Indiana Wesleyan University, USA Nova Southeastern University, USA Dr. Ted Mitchell Dr. Veronica Paz University of Nevada, USA Nova Southeastern University, USA Dr. Alma MintuWimsatt Dr. Terence Perkins Texas A & M University – Commerce, USA Veterans' Administration, USA Dr. Liz Mulig Dr. Dev Prasad University of HoustonVictoria, USA University of Massachusetts Lowell, USA Dr. Robert R. O'Connell Jr. Dr. KongCheng Wong JSA Healthcare Corporation, USA Governors State University, USA Dr. P.N. Okorji Dr. Azene Zenebe Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Nigeria Bowie State University, USA Dr. James Ellzy Dr. Sandra Davis Tennessee State University, USA The University of West Florida, USA Dr. Padmini Banerjee Dr. Yvonne Ellis Delaware State University, USA Columbus State University, USA Dr. Aditi Mitra Dr. Elizabeth Kunnu University of Colorado, USA Tennessee State University, USA Dr. Myna German Delaware State University, USA
Intellectbase International Consortium and the Conference Program Committee express their sincere thanks to the following sponsors: The Ellzy Foundation The King Foundation Tennessee State University (TSU) International Institute of Academic Research (IIAR) 5
PREFACE
Intellectbase International Consortium (IIC) is a professional and academic organization dedicated to advancing and encouraging quantitative and qualitative, including hybrid and triangulation, research practices. This volume contains articles presented at the Fall 2009 Intellectbase International Consortium Conference in Atlanta, GA USA, Oct. 1517.
The conference provides an open forum for Academics, Scientists, Researchers, Engineers and Practitioners from a wide range of research disciplines. It is the seventh volume produced in a unique, peerreviewed multidisciplinary format and intellectual foundation (See back cover of the proceedings).
Intellectbase International Consortium is responsible for publishing innovative and refereed research work on the following hard and soft systems related themes – Business, Engineering, Science, Technology, Management, Administration, Political and Social (BESTMAPS). The scope of the proceeding (IHART) includes: literature reviews and critiques, data collection and analysis, data evaluation and merging, research design and development, hypothesisbased creativity and reliable data interpretation.
The theme of the proceeding is related to pedagogy, research methodologies, organizational practice, ethics, accounting, management, leadership, policy and political issues, healthcare systems, engineering, social psychology, eBusiness, marketing, technology and information science. Intellectbase International Consortium promotes broader intellectual resources and exchange of ideas among global research professionals through a collaborative process.
To accomplish research collaboration, knowledge sharing and transfer, Intellectbase is dedicated to publishing a range of refereed academic journals, book chapters and conference proceedings, as well as sponsoring several annual academic conferences globally.
Senior, Middle and Junior level scholars are invited to participate and contribute one or several article(s) to the Intellectbase International conferences. Intellectbase welcomes and encourages the active participation of all researchers seeking to broaden their horizons and share experiences on new research challenges, research findings and stateofthe art solutions.
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Plan, organize, promote, and present educational prospects conferences, workshops, colloquiums, conventions — for global researchers.
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LIST OF AUTHORS
Last Name First Name Institution State Country
Adsavakulchai S. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Alderman Betsy B. University of Tennessee at Chattanooga TN USA
Amiri Shahram Stetson University FL USA
Anayet K. Multimedia University Malaysia
BagotAllen Donnette Judy Piece, Montserrat, BWI
Baramichai M. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Battista David Kennesaw State University GA USA
Bauer Ryan Stetson University FL USA
Blake Laura Mitchell College and Pace University CT and NY USA
Bolen Yvette Athens State University AL USA
Boonmanang N. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Broadway S. Camille University of Texas at Arlington TX USA
Brown Wayne Florida Institute of Technology FL USA
Buck Kathy Athens State University AL USA
Bunger Alan Tennessee State University TN USA
Campbell Michael M. Florida A&M University FL USA
Cardenas Tina Y. Paine College GA USA
Carnes William J. Metropolitan State College of Denver CO USA
Chandler Prentice Athens State University AL USA
Channell Linda Jackson State University MS USA
Cheng William Troy University Global Campus USA
Colon Eileen J. Western Carolina University NC USA
Cowan Wendy Athens State University AL USA
Davis Rodney Troy University AL USA
Davis Dana Tennessee State University TN USA
Dhawan Sunaina Tennessee State University TN USA
Edwards Matthew Nipissing University ON Canada
Eyanson Jeff Azusa Pacific University CA USA
Ferrer Edgar Turabo University Puerto Rico USA
Fleming Kenton Southern Polytechnic State University GA USA
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LIST OF AUTHORS (CONTINUED)
Last Name First Name Institution State Country
Griffith Brian A. Vanderbilt University TN USA
Haddad Hisham M. Kennesaw State University GA USA
Harbor Kingsley O. Jacksonville State University AL USA
Harke Swen Stetson University FL USA
Harney Suzy University of the Virgin Islands VI USA
Harper Jr. Ralph Florida Institute of Technology FL USA
Hartman Harrison C. University of Georgia GA USA
Heatherly Ben Brookhill Elementary School AL USA
Heshizer Brian Georgia Southwestern State University GA USA
Hossen J. Multimedia University Malaysia
Howell Curtis C. Georgia Southwestern State University GA USA
Hussey Jim University of South Carolina SC USA
Hyde Lisa Athens State University AL USA
Ishak Norzamri bin Multimedia University Malaysia
Johnson Kimberly Auburn University Montgomery AL USA
Jones Michael D. Kirkwood Community College IA USA
Juthamanee K. Boontavorn Co.Ltd. Thailand
Kadir Mohd Rizuan Abd Universiti Tenaga Nasional Malaysia
Kargbo Ibrahim Coppin State University MD USA
Kariuki Mumbi Nipissing University ON Canada
Kariuki Stephen Nipissing University ON Canada
Kazarian William Howard Hawaii Pacific University HI USA
Kitti S. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Lanaria Lois Kutztown University PA USA
Latham Vickie Jackson State University MS USA
Lawrence Malia S. Azusa Pacific University CA USA
Lee LaNedra Tennessee State University TN USA
Lewis Christine W. Auburn University Montgomery AL USA
Linna Ken Auburn University Montgomery AL USA
Liu Binjie University of Shanghai for Science and Technology China
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LIST OF AUTHORS (CONTINUED)
Last Name First Name Institution State Country
Mace Lesley Auburn University Montgomery AL USA
Mak Simon S. Southern Methodist University TX USA
McKay Joane W. University of the Virgin Islands VI USA
Milrod Lucas University of Tennessee at Chattanooga TN USA
Mintah Joseph K. Azusa Pacific University CA USA
Moneyham Linda University of Alabama AL USA
Chanput S. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Chantanabubpha Patcharee University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Perkins Stephynie C. University of North Florida FL USA
Phongkusolchit Kiattisak University of Tennessee at Martin TN USA
RadojevichKelley Nina Metropolitan State College of Denver CO USA
Rahman A. Multimedia University Malaysia
Ramli Juliana Anis Bte Universiti Tenaga Nasional Malaysia
Raynes Edilberto A. Tennessee State University TN USA
Reid James Huntingdon College AL USA
Riyabuth K. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Robertson Robert Saint Leo University FL USA
Ryan Thomas Nipissing University ON Canada
Scharer Kathleen University of South Carolina SC USA
Shrestha R. Asian Institute of Technology Thailand
Shugart Margaret Emory University GA USA
Smith Avis J. New York City College of Technology NY USA
Surbaini Khairul Nizam Universiti Tenaga Nasional Malaysia
Sutcharitrungsee A. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Szygenda Stephen Southern Methodist University TX USA
Tang Su University of Shanghai for Science and Technology China
Tavakoli Abbas University of South Carolina SC USA
Taylor Vivian Jackson State University MS USA
Theamsumrid E. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Thomas Bruce Athens State University AL USA
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LIST OF AUTHORS (CONTINUED)
Last Name First Name Institution State Country
Tseng L. P. Douglas Portland State University OR USA
Ueatrongchit Prawet University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Unni Ramprasad Portland State University OR USA
Varjavand Reza Saint Xavier University IL USA
Velasco Thomas Southern Illinois University Carbondale IL USA
Villacis González José University San PabloCEU Madrid Spain
Vogel Thomas K. Stetson University FL USA
Wachirathamrojn J. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
White David Roosevelt University IL USA
Williams James Kutztown University PA USA
Wiwatthanathorn T. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
Wu ChihWen National Chung Hsing University Taichung Taiwan
Yin Jianjun Jackson State University MS USA
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LIST OF INSTITUTIONS, STATES AND COUNTRIES
Institution State Country
Asian Institute of Technology Thailand
Athens State University AL USA
Auburn University Montgomery AL USA
Azusa Pacific University CA USA
Boontavorn Co.Ltd. Thailand
Brookhill Elementary School AL USA
Coppin State University MD USA
Emory University GA USA
Florida A&M University FL USA
Florida Institute of Technology FL USA
Georgia Southwestern State University GA USA
Hawaii Pacific University HI USA
Huntingdon College AL USA
Jackson State University MS USA
Jacksonville State University AL USA
Judy Piece, Montserrat, BWI
Kennesaw State University GA USA
Kirkwood Community College IA USA
Kutztown University PA USA
Metropolitan State College of Denver CO USA
Mitchell College CT USA
Multimedia University Malaysia
National Chung Hsing University Taichung Taiwan
New York City College of Technology NY USA
Nipissing University ON Canada
Pace University NY USA
Paine College GA USA
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LIST OF INSTITUTIONS, STATES AND COUNTRIES (CONTINUED)
Portland State University OR USA
Roosevelt University IL USA
Saint Leo University FL USA
Saint Xavier University IL USA
Southern Illinois University Carbondale IL USA
Southern Methodist University TX USA
Southern Polytechnic State University GA USA
Stetson University FL USA
Tennessee State University TN USA
Troy University Global Campus USA
Troy University AL USA
Turabo University Gurabo Puerto Rico
Universiti Tenaga Nasional Malaysia
University of Alabama AL USA
University of Georgia GA USA
University of North Florida FL USA
University of Shanghai for Science and Technology China
University of South Carolina SC USA
University of Tennessee at Chattanooga TN USA
University of Tennessee at Martin TN USA
University of Texas at Arlington TX USA
University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Thailand
University of the Virgin Islands VI USA
University San PabloCEU Madrid Spain
Vanderbilt University TN USA
Western Carolina University NC USA
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TABLE OF CONTENT
LIST OF AUTHORS ...... I LIST OF INSTITUTIONS, STATES AND COUNTRIES ...... V SECTION 1: BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT What is the AsianAmerican Consumer Behavior towards Green Marketing? J.D. Williams and Lois Lanaria ...... 2 Economic Value Creation from Technology Entrepreneurship: A Comparative Analysis of Sales Growth of HighTechnology Industries Listed in the Fortune 1000 Rankings from 20062009 Simon S. Mak and Stephen Szygenda ...... 20 Sustainable Development in Tourism Industry Context in Taiwan ChihWen Wu ...... 26 Do Changes in Regulation have an Impact on the Number of Bank Failures? Harrison C. Hartman ...... 31 An Unpublished Letter of Keynes and its Relevance for Macroeconomics: Classification System B22 José Villacís González ...... 39 Ten Big Emerging Markets and the Small Firm Effects William Cheng ...... 51 An Examination of Empirical Relationship Between Investment Decisions and Capital Structure Decisions Su Tang and Binjie Liu ...... 58 Part I The Four Factors of Quality: Achieving the Circle of Acceptance and Satisfaction Avis J. Smith ...... 69 Foundations of Work Motivation: An Historical Perspective on Work Motivation Theories Kimberly Johnson and Christine W. Lewis ...... 73 Glass Ceilings and Gender Gaps: A Survey Lesley Mace and Ken Linna ...... 84 Body Art: The Question of Hiring Employees with Visible Body Art William. J. Carnes and Nina RadojevichKelley ...... 96 United States versus Japan: Are there Myths Associated with Crosscultural Sales Negotiations? J.D. Williams ...... 102 Combinatorics in the Theory of Production José Villacís González ...... 123 The U.S. Economic Crisis: Ideology versus Realities Reza Varjavand ...... 133 NAFTA’s Main Objectives Included the Achievement of Economic Growth & Development in the First Fifteen Years: Were These Goals Realized? Michael M. Campbell ...... 137 Do Excessive IPO’s and ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Drive or Hinder New Innovation? Laura Blake ...... 138 The Performance of Pipeline System in the Supply Chain of Water for Industry in Thailand J. Wachirathamrojn and S. Adsavakulchai ...... 144
Risk Management Framework for AgroFood Supply Chain: A Case Study of AgroFood Supply Chain in Thailand T. Wiwatthanathorn and M. Baramichai ...... 145 Comparing Warehouse Management System between Retail and Wholesale Business in Thailand S. Adsavakulchai and K. Juthamanee ...... 146 Web Application of Preventive maintenance for Private Bus in Bangkok S. Kitti and S. Adsavakulchai ...... 147 Agro – food supply chain management in Developing countries A. Sutcharitrungsee and M. Baramichai ...... 148
SECTION 2: SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Establishing the Existence of Localized Structure using Variational Dynamics Thomas K. Vogel ...... 150 Development of an Expert System for Gem Identification Kiattisak Phongkusolchit and Tomas Velasco...... 163 GEM and the Leptonic Width of the J(3097) D. White ...... 178 ForceModeling Theory: Melodic Motion and the RealWorld Attributes of Tones Michael D. Jones ...... 182 Current Methods for the Trace Analysis of Phenoxy Acid, Triazine and Phenyl Urea Herbicides in Water Stephen Kariuki and Matthew Edwards ...... 199 Assessing Information Society Indicators: The Puerto Rico Case Edgar Ferrer ...... 204 Information and Communication Technology Impact on Asia and the Pacific Shahram Amiri, Swen Harke and Ryan Bauer ...... 208 The Impact of ETechnology on the Healthcare Management Environment Ralph L Harper and Wayne Brown ...... 214 Software Development Standards for Medical Devices: Evolution and Improvement Hisham M. Haddad and David Battista ...... 222 Should Physical Therapists Consider Pulmonary Function in Asthmatic Children when Implementing an Aerobic Exercise Program? Alan Bunger, Dana Davis, Sunaina Dhawan, LaNedra Lee and Edilberto A. Raynes ...... 231
GEM and the (2S) D. White ...... 239 A Novel Extended ANFIS: Application in a Control System J. Hossen, A. Rahman, K. Anayet ...... 244 Green office with Electronic Document System Technologies S. Chanput, Patcharee Chantanabubpha and S. Adsavakulchai ...... 246 Global Warming: Science or Ideology? Kenton Fleming ...... 247 Microcontroller for Automatic Microscope Slide P. Ueatrongchit ...... 248 The Correlation between Spectral Reflectance Data and Water Quality in Kung Krabaen Bay N. Boonmanang, E. Theamsumrid, K. Riyabuth, S. Adsavakulchai and R. Shrestha ...... 256
SECTION 3: EDUCATION & SOCIAL SCIENCES AACSB Accreditation and the Homogeneity of the Business Educational Experience Brian Heshizer and Curtis C. Howell ...... 258 Highly Qualified and Culturally Competent: Is It Too Much to Expect of Public School Teachers? Rodney Davis ...... 265 Preservice Teachers’ Awareness of Cyberbullying Issues Mumbi Kariuki and Thomas Ryan ...... 273 Perceptions of Online and OnCampus Business Programs: Implications for Marketing Business Programs Ramaprasad Unni and L.P. Douglas Tseng ...... 278 An Examination of the Careers of Adjunct Faculty in Higher Education Intellectual Curiosity – Migrant Laborers: How Adjunct Teaching Services are Utilized and Valued William Howard Kazarian ...... 287 SelfConcept, Behavior and Citizenship Status; Relationships and Differences between Adolescents Self Concept, Behavior and Citizenship Status in Montserrat, BWI Donnette BagotAllen, Suzy Harney and Joane W. McKay ...... 299 Undergraduates Selection Towards Islamic Banking :How Does Gender Affect Their Selection Norzamri bin Ishak, Mohd Rizuan Abd Kadir, Khairul Nizam Surbaini and Juliana Anis Bte. Ramli ...... 311 The Correlation between Conflict and Job Satisfaction Within Nurse Units Tina Y. Cardenas ...... 320 Pre and Post Writing Test Assessment: Determining Rater Reliability Betsy B. Alderman, Stephynie C. Perkins, S. Camille Broadway and Lucas Milrod ...... 331 The Effect of Distance Education Lecture Format on Student Application Wendy Cowan, Yvette Bolen, Prentice Chandler, Bruce Thomas, Kathy Buck and Lisa Hyde ...... 341 Improving the Delivery of Online Business Courses: A Continuous Improvement Process Robert W. Robertson...... 346 The AristoLeslian Model for Ethical Decision Making: Proposing a Model for Teaching Ethical Decision Making in Communication Kingsley O. Harbor ...... 347 The Effect of Summer Language Intervention Program on Vocabulary Development of ESL Third Grade Student in an Urban Mississippi School District Vickie Latham, Jianjun Yin, Vivian Taylor and Linda Channell ...... 348 The First Year of College: Beginning the Transition from Adolescent to Adult Brian A. Griffith ...... 349 A comparison of Two Types of Social Support for Mothers of Mentally Ill Children Kathleen Scharer, Eileen J. Colon, Linda Moneyham, Jim Hussey, Abbas Tavakoli and Margaret Shugart ...... 350 “Discipline and Confinement: Crime and Punishment in Colonial Sierra Leone” Ibrahim Kargbo ...... 351 Burnout among Female Club Volleyball Players Jeff Eyanson, Malia S. Lawrence and Joseph K. Mintah ...... 352 “Soda Consumption in Overweight and AtRisk Elementary Children” Yvette Bolen, Bruce Thomas, Ben Heatherly and James Reid ...... 353
INTELLECTBASE INTERNATIONAL CONSORTIUM Intellectual Perspectives & Multi-Disciplinary Foundations
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POLITICAL MANAGEMENT ADMINISTRATION
A Commitment to Academic Excellence.
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SECTION 1 BUSINESS & MANAGEMEN BUSINESS
What is the Asian- American Consumer Behavior towards Green Marketing?
WHAT IS THE ASIANAMERICAN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR TOWARDS GREEN MARKETING?
J.D. Williams and Lois Lanaria Kutztown University, USA
ABSTRACT The AsianAmerican consumer group is thought to be the fastest growing market in the United States. AsianAmericans are considered to be welleducated, generally affluent, and geographically concentrated. However, significant cultural and language differences among Asians subgroup are often overlooked as being problematic in conducting domestic marketing studies. As such, the Asian communities have been long been ignored for their individuality and ethnic diversity, particularly when it comes domestic marketing segmentation, much less being a viable element for green marketing center of attention.
PURPOSE This study has presented a beginning era into comparative consumer behavioral green marketing examinations of the three different AsianAmerican groups, Chinese, Filipinos, and Indians. The study has developed implications for American industries emerging with green marketing strategies. The AsianAmerican (Asians residing in United States) consumer group is thought to be the fastest growing market in the United States. AsianAmericans, in general meet, if not exceed, all marketing segmentation target characteristics, inclusive of being geographically concentrated. However, significant cultural and language differences among Asian subgroups have often been overlooked. The paper aims to provide an understanding of the AsianAmerican consumer and their respective behavior towards environmental consciousness and existing green marketing programs/products.
Hypotheses have been developed to address the relationship between AsianAmerican sociodemographics characteristics and their knowledgebehavior towards green marketing and green products. These hypotheses have tested a subset of Chinese, Filipinos, and Indians consumers residing in the United States and conclusion were drawn on the utility of socio demographic variables for profiling green consumers.
INTRODUCTION Effective green marketing has necessitated the application of superior marketing elementals to craft green products as desirable goods for consumers. For the most part, green markers have conducted a very limited marketing effort with equally inadequate results experiencing market growth, but at a snails’ pace. However, what has been green marketing’s future? This may have been due to historically, green marketing having been a misunderstood concept. Many business scholars viewed ‘greening’ as a ‘fringe’ topic, given that environmentalism acceptance and conservation have not yet meshed well with marketing’s traditional axioms of ‘give costumers what they want’ and ‘sell as much as you can’ practices. Marketing has lagged behind rising energy prices, megagrowth rates in pollution, increased resource consumption in Asia, and political pressure to address climate change, which have been driving global innovation toward healthier, moreefficient, high performance products and services. As such, a vast number of marketers have lifted the banner towards green marketing (Ottman, Stafford, & Hartman, 2006). Yet the road towards success for green marketing has been riddled with institution blunders and consumer distrust.
Green marketing came into prominence in the late 1980s and early 1990s though it was first discussed much earlier. The American Marketing Association (AMA) held the first workshop on “Ecological Marketing” in 1975. The proceedings of this workshop resulted in one of the first books on green marketing entitled “Ecological Marketing. Since that time a number of other books on the topic have been published (Polonsky, An Introduction to Green Marketing, 1994).
The AMA workshop attempted to bring together academics, practitioners, and public policy makers to examine marketing’s impact on the natural environment. At this workshop, ecological marketing was defined as the study of positive and negative aspects of marketing activities on pollution, energy depletion, and nonenergy resource depletion (Polonsky, An Introduction to Green Marketing, 1994).
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J. D. Williams and L. Lanaria Volume 7 – Fall 2009
Green marketing is the byproduct of this new vision. It has spawned from a global awareness that environmental management accountability is at present, a significant component of the overall scheme of well planned operations and marketing. The main theme of green management is that all environmental efforts must create some impact on the corporate balance sheet. Institutional questions to these government supported efforts are strategically essential:
How much do these efforts cost? Are these saving the company money? What is the payback period the company can see the return on investment?
If all these actions do not improve the bottom line, then they will be shortlived in the global corporate arena. New international standards, political forces, and concerned consumers will demand accountability from companies in their green marketing and marketing efforts. A growing body of research is proving that environmental improvements translate into profits (Wasik, 1996).
One of the most powerful shifts in institutional thinking is that of a growing relationship between ecology and economics. Those institutions that understand this relationship are not only reducing their operational costs, they are also improving productivity while increasing their profit. The new millennium of economics and ecology focuses on some oftenignored bastions of corporate operations. While it has been no secret that corporations can increase their bottom lines by cutting the amount of raw materials and energy consumption, many of these companies are now seeing cost cutting effectiveness from an ecological perspective.
Environmental concern has increased substantially in Western countries over recent decades. This environmental concern correlates well with consumers’ stated intentions to purchase environmentally friendly products. However, these intentions do not translate directly into changed consumer behavior by way of adoption of green products. Some psychographic based research has identified consumers’ perceived effectiveness of their actions as a significant determinant of environmentally friendly consumer behaviors (Yusuf & Brooks, 2004).
LITERATURE REVIEW Green Marketing or Environmental Marketing Green marketing consists of all activities designed to generate and facilitate any exchanges intended to satisfy human needs or wants, such that the satisfaction of these needs and wants occurs, with minimal detrimental impact on natural environment (Polonsky, 1995); (Hooley, Saundeers, &. Piercey, 2008); (Costa & Bamossy, 1995); (Pride & Ferrell, 2007); (Kotler & Keller, 2008); and (Kerin, Hartley, & Rudelius, 2008). Similar terms used for green marketing are environmental or ecological marketing. This definition incorporates much of the traditional components of the marketing definition that is “All activities designed to generate and facilitate any exchanges intended to satisfy human needs or wants (Polonsky, An Introduction to Green Marketing, 1994).” Therefore it ensures that the interests of the organization and all its consumers are protected, as voluntary exchange will not take place unless both the buyer and the seller mutually benefit (Armstrong &Kotler, 2008)); (Ferrell & Hartline, 2007); and (Solomon, Marshall, & Stuart, 2006).
Terms like phosphate free, recyclable, refillable, ozone friendly and environmentally friendly are some of the things consumers most often associate with green marketing. (Peter & Donnelly, 2008); (Horn, 2006); (Christie Matheson); and (Kotler & Lee, 2007). While these terms are green marketing claims, in general marketing is a much broader concept, one that can be applied to consumer goods, industrial goods and even services. Example for services is that resorts are beginning to promote themselves as “ecotourist” facilities where their facilities specialize in experiencing nature or operating in a fashion that minimizes their environmental impact (Kotler & Lee, 2007); (Kotabe & Helsen, 2007); and (Lamb, Hair, & McDaniel, 2007). Thus green marketing incorporates a broad range of activities, including product modification, changes to the production process, packaging changes, as well as modifying advertising (Polonsky, 1994).
Green Products and Marketing Green or environmental marketing consists of all activities designed to generate and facilitate any exchanges intended to satisfy human needs or wants. The satisfaction of these needs and wants occurs with minimal detrimental impact on the natural environment (Polonsky, 1994); (Armstrong &Kotler, 2008)); (Martin & Simintiras, 1995); and (Lamb, Hair, & McDaniel, 2007).
Green product and environment product are terms commonly used to describe those that strive to protect or enhance the natural environment by conserving energy and/or resources and reduction or elimination of the use of toxic agents, pollutants
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What is the Asian- American Consumer Behavior towards Green Marketing? and wastes. Green marketing must satisfy two objectives: improved environmental quality and customer satisfaction (Hooley, Saundeers, &. Piercey, 2008) and (Ottman, Stafford, & Hartman, 2006).
A few green products have become so common and widely distributed that many consumers may no longer recognize them as green products because they buy them for nongreen reasons. For instance are widely available supermarkets and discount retailers ranging from energysaving Tide Coldwater laundry detergent to nontoxic Method and Green cleaning products? Use of recycled or biodegradable paper products such as plates, towels, napkins, coffee filters and other goods, is also widespread. Organic food market segment has also increased 20 percent annually since 1990. Five times faster than the conventional food market, spurring the growth of specialty retailers such as Whole Foods Market and WalMart too (Ottman, Stafford, & Hartman, 2006).
The marketing of successfully established green products showcases nongreen consumer value, and there are at least five desirable benefits commonly associated with green products: efficiency and cost effectiveness; health and safety; performance; symbolism and status; and convenience (Ottman, Stafford, & Hartman, 2006); (Costa & Bamossy, 1995); (Pride & Ferrell, 2007); (Kotler & Keller, 2008); and (Kerin, Hartley, & Rudelius, 2008).
Marketing Demographic Segmentation Theory to Application A number of past studies have made attempts to identify demographic variables that correlate with environmentally conscious attitude and/or consumption patterns. Such demographic variables offer easy and efficient ways for marketers to initialize market segmentation through capitalizing on the current trends towards ‘going green’ attitudes and ‘buying green‘ behaviors (Roberts & Straughan, 1999).
Age Early studies of ecology or environment and green marketing, age have been explored by a number of researchers. Some researches resulted into findings that younger individuals are likely to be more sensitive to environmental issues. And as those who have grown up in a time period in which environmental concerns have been a salient issue at some level are more likely to be sensitive to these issues (Roberts & Straughan, 1999). This specific demographic aspect has been researched within this paper regarding age factoring of the Asian research groups.
On the other hand, a good deal of research has determined that older folks tended to be more serious towards green behaviors, in some cases, more than younger consumers. The ‘matures’ and ‘echo boomers’ have been more likely to have bought an energyefficient appliances (52 percent vs. 32 percent); purchased more locally grown food (35 percent vs. 23 percent); and stopped using bottled water (27 percent vs. 23 percent) than younger consumers (Dolliver, 2008). However, some research findings have been somewhat equivocal. Some researchers have explored age as a correlate to green attitudes and behavior the intriguing findings revealing that were nonsignificant relationships (Roberts & Straughan, 1999).
Gender Sex has been an actively research demographic variable. The development of unique sex roles, skills, and attitudes has lead most researchers to argue that women are more likely than men to hold attitudes consistent with the green movement. Theoretical justification for this comes from Eagly (1987), who contends that women will reflect more social development and sex role differences; which have enabled them to more carefully consider the impact of their actions on others (Roberts & Straughan, 1999). Considering the social impact of green marketing, one may have deduced the broader implications of women leading the way towards cleaner, healthier, safer products.
Ethnicity One of the demographic profiling in marketing is ethnicity. The ethnic consumption perspective takes into account the effect of culture on consumer behavior. Culture is defined as the configuration of learned behavior and results of behavior whose components are shared and transmitted by the members of a particular society (Linton, 1945). Another definition of culture by Kroober and Parson (1958), culture is transmitted and created content and patterns of values, ideas, and other symbolic meaningful systems as factors in the shaping of human behavior and the artifacts produced through behavior. Together these definitions stress two important aspects of culture, (1) culture is shared by the members of a given society, and (2) culture is by its very nature, dynamic and transmissible.
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Education and Income The hypothesized relationship of education attained levels has been fairly consistent across research studies. Specifically, education has been expected to replicate positive correlations with environmental concerns and behavior. Although the results of studies examining education and environmental issues have been quite consistent, a statistically definitive relationship between the two variables has not yet been established behavioral deviations have been rampant. Interesting differences have occurred in two divergent studies by Samdahl and Robertson (1989) whom found the opposite correlation(s) that education was negatively correlated with environmental attitudes. The second study conducted by Kinnear et al. (1974) found no significant relationship (Roberts & Straughan, 1999).
Income has been generally thought to be positively correlated to environmental attitudinal sensitivity. The most common justification for this conviction was that individuals can, at higher income levels, bear the marginal increases in costs associated with supporting green causes and favoring green products offerings. Numerous studies have addressed the role of income as a predictor of green consumer behavior and attitude. A study conducted by Newell and Green (1997) had an interesting hypothesis involving income stems. They postulated that income and education help to moderate the consequence that ethnic origin and nationality have played on shaping their respective views towards environmental concerns. Their study results showed that differences between the perceptions of black and white consumers with respect to environmental issues decrease as both income and education go up. Other studies have shown a nonsignificant direct effect of income on environmental awareness while some studies have resulted to a positive correlation and negative relationships between income and environmental concerns and behaviors (Roberts & Straughan, 1999) and (A., C., 2000).
GREEN MARKET CONSUMER BEHAVIOR RESEARCH
Economics begat marketing which begat consumer behavior research which begat the new consumer behavior research which has most recently begat green marketing consumers. Do you get the begat (smile)?
The development of an academic discipline of consumer behavior within the marketing departments of colleges of commerce and business began in 1950s. Earlier on in the past 20th Century, North America and Europe advertising and marketing research firms began to study the consumers for the purpose of marketing consumer goods more effectively. The academic marketing departments that developed during that era seemed to have garnered a great deal of applied and behavioral focus to which emerged the latest research thrust, green marketing (Belk, 1995).
The founding of the Association for Consumer Research in 1969 and the establishment of the Journal of Consumer Research in 1974 proved to be ideal avenues to explore consumer behavior from both esoteric and practical application modes. Green market research, although being a rather new focus of attention from many marketing schools and institutions, has nonethe less already touched the minds and economic hearts of our President Obama, a multitude of state governors and literally hundreds of entrepreneurs (Belk, 1995) and (Bohlen, Diamantopoulos, & Schlegelmilch, 1996).
SYMBOLISM AND STATUS According to many automobile analysts, the Prius, Toyota’s gaselectric hybrid, has become an epitome of a “green chic”. The coolkid cachet that comes with being an early adopter of quirkylooking hybrid vehicle trend continues to partly motivate sales. To appeal to young people, conservation and green consumption need the unsolicited endorsement of highprofile celebrities and connection to cool technology.
Another example in the business where office furniture symbolizes the cachet of corporate image and status is the ergonomically designed “Think” chair. The chair is marketed as the chair “with a brain and conscience” and embodies the latest in “cradle to cradle” (C2C) design and manufacturing. C2C described as a product that can be ultimately returned to technical or biological nutrients, encourages industrial designers to create products free of harmful agents and processes that can be recycled easily into new products such as metals and plastics, or safely returned to the earth such as a plantbased materials.
The ‘Think’ chair is 99 percent recyclable, it disassembles with basic had tools in about five minutes, and parts are stamped with icons showing recycling options. The concept ‘Think’ chair has been positioned as symbolizing the smart, socially responsible office. Therefore in sum, green products have been and will likely be positioned as status symbol, in some cases, commanding higher competitive prices (Ottman, Stafford, & Hartman, 2006).
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What is the Asian- American Consumer Behavior towards Green Marketing?
SOCIAL RESPONSIBLITIES Society has been thankful that a growing number of institutions have begun to believe they have a moral obligation to be more socially responsible (Polonsky, 1994). Many firms have begun to realize that they are members of the wider community and therefore, must behave with an environmentally responsible mindset. This has translated into an emergence of firms whom have formulated strategic efforts to achieve environmental goals as well as profit related objectives. Governmental regulations relating to environmental marketing have been designed to protect consumers in several ways:
Reduce production of harmful goods or byproducts, Reduce the import of either harmful and illegal products, Modify consumer and industry’s use and/or consumption of harmful goods or
Ensure that all types of consumers have the ability to evaluate the environmental composition of goods (Polonsky, 1994).
The expanded aspects of this corporate effort have resulted in firms integrating environmental issues within their corporate culture. Firms in this situation can take on one of three action plans: 1) they can use the fact that they are environmentally responsible as a marketing tool or 2) they can become responsible without promoting this fact, or 3) creatively design an option that may incorporate certain components of both 1) and 2). An example of an organization that does not promote its environmental initiatives would be CocaCola. This firm has invested large sums of money in various recycling activities, as well as modifying their packaging to minimize its environmental impact. While being concerned about the environment, Coke has not used this concern as a marketing tool. Thus many consumers may not realize that the Coca Cola Corporation has been a very environmentally committed organization (Polonsky, 1994) and (Kama, Hansen, & Heikki, 2001).
VALUE OF GREEN COMSUMERS Green consumers make decisions based on the ‘earth friendliness’ of a product. Back in 1990, according to a Gallup survey, nine out of ten respondents said they were willing to make special effort to buy products from companies trying to protect the environment. Those who were polled who said that they would buy the product also said that they would be willing to pay more for green products and even give up more convenience to have them in their household (Finisterra do Paço & Raposo, 2008) and (Minton & Rose, 1997). This and othe studies have clearly suggested that ther exists substantial marketing worth in incoporating ‘green’ into these firms’ production, operations and marketing programs.
Consider this, has the 21st Century typical Americans consumer reached the point that he/she would pose minimum difficulty in linking his/her environment thoughts with how they would shop for goods and services. With the numerous messages, labeling programs, claims, and warnings, it would still be quite difficult to evaluate the totality of information. And then, when one considers that the number of products making green claims has mushroomed over the years [Table 1], it would still seem to be most difficult undertaking (Roberts, 1990/1996) and (Wasik, 1996).
Table 1: Green Product Introductions (As a percentage of total product introductions) Year Total Foods Beverages Household Pets 1986 1.10 1.40 2.30 2.70 0.90 1987 2.00 2.10 2.30 7.40 3.90 1988 2.80 3.40 5.40 9.40 1.40 1989 4.50 4.90 10.10 15.70 1.60 1990 11.40 9.20 11.40 25.90 11.60 1991 13.40 9.30 13.40 32.90 22.90 1992 11.50 8.70 8.90 30.50 18.20 1993 13.10 10.40 15.10 29.60 15.3 Source: Productscan, copyright 1994, Marketing Intelligence Service, Ltd., Naples, NY.
It would seem that a green product overload may have also reduced the effectiveness of green marketing campaigns. A study, in the mid1990’s, showed that of 300 green advertisements, many green ads failed to make the consumer connection between what the company was doing for the environment and how it desired to affect its consumer groups. The green backlash, therefore, may be the failure of firms, domestic and international, to link green issues with their products and
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J. D. Williams and L. Lanaria Volume 7 – Fall 2009 operations as well as the inability to communicate this relationship. To some extent, the inflated price of green goods may have also generated consumer apprehension if not more absolute barriers to purchase their products (Wasik, 1996).
The challenged marketers’ gloomy face may be partly due to a component of the consumers’ own equivocal commitment towards their environment. Quite possibly of no shock to most, has been the results of previous surveys, which have shown consumers with strong support for environmental protection. When it came to specific green behavior, polling trends tended to confirm that mainstream consumers have learned to talk the talk, but are still taking babysteps towards environment issues. A recent survey by the TNS Group, determined that just 26 percent of Americans are saying that they actively seek environmentally friendly products.
Green Consumers as a Growth Markets The United States is one of the largest markets for green products. More than 37 million consumers consider themselves ‘trueblue greens’ and 20 million say they are ‘socially conscious (Wasik, 1996).’ With the global economy becoming more difficult towards policies regarding pollution, ozone depletion, global warming, and acid rain, environmental issues are expected to occupy not only President Obama’s prime directive but the world’s center stage for decades to come (Wasik, 1996).
Drawing from past researches and analysis of the strategic marketing appeals towards green products that have either succeeded or failed in the marketplace over the past decade; some important lessons have emerged for crafting effective green marketing programs and product strategies. Successful green products campaigns have been able to appeal to mainstream consumers or lucrative market niches while frequently commanding price premiums (Ottman, Stafford, & Hartman, 2006) and (Stoneman, Turner & Wang, 2005).
Green Market Information and Availability Many of the successful green products employ compelling, educational marketing messages and slogans that connect green product attributes with desired consumer value. Successful marketing programs effectively calibrated consumer knowledge to recognize the green product’s consumer benefits. In some instances, the environmental benefits of the green products were positioned as secondary, if mentioned at all. Some compelling marketing communications educate consumers to recognize green products as “solutions” for their personal needs and the environment. In practice, the analysis conducted from studies suggests that advertising that draws attention to how the environmental product benefit should deliver desired personal value, which may be able to broaden consumer acceptance of green products (Ottman, Stafford, & Hartman, 2006). Table2 has illustrated examples of successful marketing messages that have educated consumers towards deriving inherent values from green marketing.
Table 2: MARKETING MESSAGE CONNECTING GREEN PRODUCTS with DESIRED CONSUMER VALUE VALUE MESSAGE and BUSINESS/PRODUCT “The only thing our washer will shrink is your water bill.” – ASKO Efficiency and “Did you know that between 80 and 85 percent of the energy used to wash clothes comes from heating the cost effectiveness water? Tide Coldwater – The Coolest Way to Clean.” – Tide Coldwater Laundry Detergent “mpg ” – Toyota Prius “20 years of refusing to farm with toxic pesticides. Stubborn, perhaps. Healthy, most definitely.” – Earthbound Health and Safety Farm Organic “Safer for You and the Environment.” – Seventh Generation Household Cleaners “Environmentally friendly stain removal. It’s as simple as H2O.” – Mohawk EverSet Fibers Carpet Performance “Fueled by light so it runs forever. It’s unstoppable. Just like the people who wear it.” – Citizen EcoDrive Sports Watch “Think is the chair with a brain and a conscience.” – Steelcase’s Think Chair Symbolism “Make up your mind, not just your face.” – The Body Shop Convenience “Long life for hardtoreach places.” – General Electric’s CFL Flood Lights Bundling “Performance and luxury fueled by innovative technology.” – Lexus RX400h Hybrid Sports Vehicle Source: Compiled by J.A. Ottman, E.R. Stafford, and C.L. Hartman, 2006
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What is the Asian- American Consumer Behavior towards Green Marketing?
BARRIERS TO ‘GREENING’ Bonini and Openheim field tested 7,751 consumers around the world and uncovered five barriers to buying green at every stage of the purchase:
1. Lack of awareness, 2. Negative perceptions, 3. Distrust, 4. high prices, and 5. Low availability (Bonini & Oppenheim, 2008).
Lack of awareness of all of advantages and disadvantages of buying green products can cause confusion and frustration for consumers. On the one side, although many consumers would want to support environmental issues, they may not quite understand how to act on their ‘green’ impulses. On the other side, many companies have attempted to label green products with meaningless and/or bewildering data for consumers to absorb. For example, a labeling program for carbon footprint has indicated how much carbon dioxide was emitted within the product’s production process, packaging, and shipment. Calculating carbon footprints requires some very fancy math and the calculated results have only a limited audience, certainly not the average consumer. Therefore, when a bag of chips has been labeled to contain 75 grams of carbon, do you know what it means (Bonini, 2008)?
The second barrier hampering ‘greening’ has been negative perception. Some green products such as hybrid automobiles have become status symbols. But many green products still suffer from misdirected or misinformed image problems. According to a 2007 GfK Roper Green Gauge Study (Reprinted in the Stanford Social Innovation Review, Fall 2008) of more than 2,000 Americans, fully 61 percent believed that green products performed worse than conventional products. For example, early versions of the CFL light bulbs were slow to light up and had a weak light when they illuminate and, in some cases did not fit properly into normal light fixtures. Such negative images can cause consumers to shy away from green products. Clearly, companies that market green products have to refabricate the valueperceptions for these products and prove that these products can perform as well as conventional products (Bonini, 2008).
The third barrier for consumers has been distrust. Consumers not only doubt the quality of the green products but also their very greenness. According to a GfK Roper Survey, although consumers believe the environmental claims of scientists and environmental groups have stated, these same consumers have tended to not believe the claims of media, government, and businesses. A 2007 study by the TerraChoice Environmental Marketing Inc. (Reprinted in the Stanford Social Innovation Review, Fall 2008) examined 1,753 environmental products claims and found that all but one were misleading or just plain false.
The ageold bugaboo, high price has logged in as the fourth barrier to going green. Indeed, price has been the largest barrier to buying green products according to a 2007 survey made by U.K. Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Reprinted in the Stanford Social Innovation Review, Fall 2008). Close to half of the survey participants desired a two year return on the premium prices they paid for the green product. The situations was exacerbated even more when one considers that, nearly 70 percent of green appliances, including e energy efficient televisions, washers, and dryers, took longer to recoup their purchaser’s money (Bonini, 2008). In terms of the costtobenefit analysis that many astute consumers have been conducting towards most home capital goods, such as appliances, the long term value of green products might end up finding itself on the wrong side of the justification curve.
The last of the five barriers would be low availability. Many consumers who had decided to be greenoriented consumers have just not found green products to be sufficiently cost effective enough to incorporate them into the weekly family budget. And, of course, the same consumer mind set has found it even more challenging to justify the purchasing of more expensive capital items, such as automobiles home heating/airconditioning systems, or even high Rrated insulation systems. Most all other products offer a wide range of pricetoperformance and can be purchased at many shopping centers near by. Green products are not so readily available which presents a comparative selection nightmare for consumers. For example, In a survey conducted in Chicago and San Francisco area, out of the 23 groceries, fewer than half offered green products besides organic foods and CFLs. Not to mention that among the minority of these groceries that offered ecofriendly nonfood products, only about 10 percent stocked more than one product (Bonini, 2008).
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To increase the sales of environmentally friendly products, companies should fully assess the conditions that spawned these barriers and determine effective marketing paths around as many of these unhealthy conditions as possible. In other words, companies must:
Increase consumer awareness of green products, Improve consumers’ perception of ecoproduct quality, Strengthen consumers’ trust in both product(s) and company, Offer more pricetovalue for these green products, and Increase green product availability through extending distribution channels (Bonini, 2008).
Due to consumers being largely unaware of green alternatives, companies must expand their lesson plans beyond the basic product fundamentals by educating consumers on larger environmental issues and the benefits of going ‘green.’ If possible, nonprofit and government agencies would need to share in educational responsibilities and take up the cause for green propagation.
Aside from educating consumers, companies must also build better products. Consumers still value product performance, reliability, and quality as much or more than a product’s ecological soundness. To resolve the distrust issue, companies must rebuild public trust. Companies must inform the public about their products true environmental impacts. Telling consumers to act green when the company itself is making little effort to improve its operations is one of the factors of the consumers’ distrust.
STUDY OBJECTIVE AND METHODOLGY To examine Asian consumer profiles based on ethnicity, age bracket, gender, regional location, and educational level demographic characteristics in relationship to recognition and consumption of green marketing in the United States. Based on ethnicity, this study has focused upon three Asian nationalities: Chinese, Filipino, and Indian with certain age brackets. The prime objective of this research was to determine selected Asian consumer behaviors and attitudes towards their respective participation and support of environmentally friendly activities, specifically green products recognition and purchase.
Sampling Procedures and Data Collection The population targeted for this study consisted of subjects of Asian ethnicity specifically Chinese, Filipino, and (India) Indians residing in United States. First sample set was derived from United States citizens from the above three ethnic origins and obtained via online research query systems. Second sample set will be derived from field surveys distributed by hand in Pennsylvania, California, North Carolina, Boston, and Arizona. A minimum of sixty ethnicity questionnaires along with three age subdivision samples targets will be gathered.
Demographic Variables Three demographic variables were investigated: age bracket, ethnicity, and educational level. The age was grouped into three samplings: 1826, 2735, and 3650. The ethnicity independent variable focused on three Asian nationalities: Chinese, Filipino and Indians.
Geographic Assessment A series of stratified samplings were conducted based upon 4 regions in the U.S. (East Coast, West, Midwest, and South). Surveys were administered by hand and an Internet Web survey.
Measures A structured questionnaire was designed to gather the data required for the study. The questionnaire was divided into two parts: 1st) Identity branching questions and 2nd) statements that were designed to measure: 1) the respondent’s awareness of green marketing, 2) attitudes and behaviors of consumers towards green products, and 3) their willingness to pay more for green products over nongreen products.
Survey Instrument Both shortframe answers and sevenpoint Likert scale were designed into the survey.
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SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS This paper had limited its study towards 3 ethnic Asian consumer groups currently residing in United States: Chinese, Filipino, and (India) Indians. The authors of this study realize that there are many other Asian groups to be considered for future studies as well as various Spanish speaking groups and African Americans.
Although this study attempted to questions the targeted groups throughout the U.S., the survey respondents were not a statistically balance subgroup spread between the 4 regions in America. In addition the total number of respondents was not a large enough statistical sampling
In light of these ethnicallydriven research findings compiled in this paper, the environmental awareness and consciousness of today’s U.S. population are relatively complex. For example in profiling target respondents by geographical location, while most respondents residing in different U.S. regions may show moderate to high awareness of environmental issues around them, it does not necessarily correlate to their consumption behavior in buying green products. It would follow that a robust in size, yet well delineated, profile of green consumers should be constructed in the future.
HYPOTHESES The hypotheses guiding this study were related to three overriding objectives:
1. To examine the consumer profile based on sociodemographic characteristics on age bracket, gender, regional location, and educational level, 2. To examine on the consumer behavior based on ethnicity focused on three AsianAmerican population: Chinese, Filipino, and Indians, and 3. To examine these green consumers behavior towards their likelihood to participate and support environmentally friendly activities and green products.
The hypotheses were categorized according to their different demographic characteristics. Each category included the selected Asian consumer scaled measures of environmental knowledge and awareness, environmental attitude, and purchasing behavior:
Culture: H1.1: Consumer behavior is strongly influenced by culture. Chinese, Filipino and Indians, respond differently in terms of consumer behavior. Hypothesis H1.1 will be tested using Survey Questions Q6 and Q7 (see Appendix for Survey).
Gender: H2.1: Chinese males, more than females, are more knowledgeable about environmental issues, specifically green marketing. H2.2: Filipino males, more than females, are more knowledgeable about environmental issues, specifically green marketing. H2.3: India Indians males, more than females, are more knowledgeable about environmental issues, specifically green marketing. Hypotheses H2.1 – H2.3 will be tested using Survey Question Q8. (see Appendix for Survey). H2.4: Chinese, Filipino, and Indians females, more than their respective culture males, are more likely to participate in green marketing activities through purchasing green products. H2.5: Filipino female consumers, more than Chinese and Indian female consumers, are more likely to buy green products. Hypotheses H2.4 – H2.5 will be tested using Survey Questions Q14, Q16, Q19, Q21 and Q33 (see Appendix for Survey).
Age: H3.1: Young Chinese (ages 18 to 26) are more concerned and aware on environmental issues than the older Chinese population. H3.2: Young Filipinos (ages 18 to 26) are more concerned and aware on environmental issues than the older Filipinos population.
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H3.3: Young India Indians (ages 18 to 26) are more concerned and aware on environmental issues than the older Indians population. Hypotheses H3.1 – H3.3 will be tested using Survey questions Q8 and Q9. (see Appendix for Survey). H3.4: Chinese, Filipinos, and Indians (ages 27 to 35) are more likely to actively support and buy green products. H3.5: The older Chinese population, more than older Filipinos and Indians, would tend to be more likely to actively support and buy green products. Hypotheses H3.4 and H3.5 will be tested using Survey Questions Q10, Q17, Q19, and Q33 (see Appendix for Survey).
Education: H4.1: Indians, having attained a high educational level (higher than the two other Asian groups) have a greater propensity to supporting green activities by buying green products. Hypothesis H4.1 will be tested using Survey Questions Q19 (see Appendix for Survey).
Geographic Location: H5.1: Chinese, Filipinos, and Indians, situated in the West region, are more aware of environmental issues then all other regions of the U.S. Hypothesis H5.1 will be tested using Survey Question Q8. (see Appendix for Survey). H5.2: Chinese, Filipinos, and Indians population, situated in the West and Northeast regions, are more likely to support and buy green products. Hypothesis H5.2 will be tested using Survey Questions Q14, Q17 and Q19 (see Appendix for Survey).
RESEARCH IMPLICATIONS, ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS In light of the importance of the Asian segment in the U.S. market, Asian consumers would represent prime marketing segments. Thus far very little study on the underlying models, concepts, and views of Asian consumer segmentation has been conducted. Asian consumer behavior and their respective perceptions towards green products represent a new era of marketing tests. The results of such investigation into these and other Asian cultures may lead toward further marketing penetration of these rather unknown and untapped ethnic groups.
Data Set Segmentation The research data was analyzed to determine the extent to which the U.S. residing Chinese, Filipino and Indian consumers reflected distinct attitudes and perceptions towards environment conscious programs, green marketing activities and green products. The tested sample consisted of 195 individuals the Chinese respondents numbered the highest 61 (31.28%). Most of the respondents were within the 1826 years old age bracket, with a total of 87 (44.62%). Unfortunately, due a localized bias of both researchers living in the East coast, most of the respondents were from the Northeast, numbering 80 (41.03%). The detailed segmentation survey has been presented below in Table3:
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What is the Asian- American Consumer Behavior towards Green Marketing?
Table 3: Demographic Characteristics of Respondents Identity Branching Response Response Ethnicity Percent Count Chinese 31.28% 61 Filipino 36.92% 72 Indian 31.79% 62 Age Group 1826 years old 44.62% 87 2735 years old 27.69% 54 3650 years old 27.69% 54 Gender Male 49.23% 96 Female 50.77% 99 Location Northeast 41.03% 80 West 29.74% 58 Midwest 10.26% 20 South 18.97% 37 Educational Level Highs School /GED Diploma 15.38% 30 24 year degreed in College 46.67% 91 Master's Degree or Above 37.95% 74
Statistical analyses were conducted on the data gathered to test the hypotheses presented on this research.
Analysis Set Hypotheses 1 The test was conducted using Survey Questions 6 and 7. The objective was to gather the target respondents’ perceptions and behaviors towards purchasing green products. The data, categorized by ethnicity, illustrated that Chinese respondents, with an average rating of 4.16, were the least likely to believe that their buyer behavior was influenced by their culture. While Filipinos (5.35) and Indians (5.38) were most likely believe that their respective cultures influenced their buyer behavior because of its high mean values. The Pvalue for Q6 and Q7 are 1.82E10 and 0.012 respectively. Both Pvalues are less than the significance value of 0.05, so we assume that the three ethnic groups affected their consumer and purchasing behaviors. Also, the F values of Q6 and Q7 are 25.26 and 4.50 respectively which are both greater than critical F value of 3.043 thus their variances were not all equal. Twofactor ANOVA with replication was also tested for the culture and ethnicity’s influence on consumer (Q6) and purchasing (Q7) behavior and the three different ethnic groups with an alpha of 0.05. The results showed that the Pvalue for Q6/Q7 is less than alpha (8.92E05 < 0.05) so then means are not the same. As for the P value for the different ethnicity, 1.34E09 is less than alpha 0.05, so the means are all different for each group. The Pvalue of the interaction of Q6/Q7 and the ethnicity is greater than the alpha (0.196 > 0.05), therefore we can say that the culture and ethnicity’s influence on consumer and purchasing behavior both affect the Chinese, Filipino and Indian sample population. As Table 4.1 and Table 4.2 points out, there seems to be ample evidence to support hypothesis H1.1, therefore H1.1 would be accepted.
Table 4.1: Respondents’ ethnicity and their belief in influence on their consumer behavior and purchasing behavior Mean for SD for Mean for SD for Composite Ethnicity Q6 Q6 Q7 Q7 Mean Chinese 4.28 1.70 4.03 1.62 4.16 Filipino 5.85 1.08 4.86 1.56 5.35 Indian 5.84 1.47 4.92 2.31 5.38 Total 5.35 1.59 4.62 1.88 4.99 (SD = Standard deviation; Kurtosis: Q6= 0.943 and Q7 = 0.840, reflecting low inverted peak levels)
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Table 4.2: Twofactor ANOVA with replication results on the respondents’ ethnicity and their belief in influence on their consumer behavior and purchasing behavior Source of Variation SS df MS F Pvalue F critical Q6/Q7 44.06830601 1 44.06830601 15.70701 8.92E05 3.867419 Chinese/Filipino/Indian 121.3825137 2 60.69125683 21.63182 1.34E09 3.0208 Interaction 9.18579235 2 4.592896175 1.637019 0.196004 3.0208 Within 1010.032787 360 2.80564663 Total 1184.669399 365
*Analysis Set Hypotheses 2 The second demographic variable examined was a gender profile amongst the three Asian groups. The development of unique sex roles, skills and attitudes has led this research to hypothesized that different levels of awareness exists between males and females concerning environmental issues, specifically green marketing. Hypothesis H2.1 to 2.5 was focused on the gender variations.
Hypotheses H2.1, H2.2, and H2.3 would be rejected. Hypothesis H2.4 would be rejected. Hypothesis H2.5 was rejected.
* Analysis Set Hypotheses 3 Referring back to a previously mentioned green marketing study, conducted on the general, none ethnic specific sample U.S. populations, [Roberts & Straughan, 1999] the demographics of age had been examined to determine the age relevance.. The general belief has been that younger adults (resembling this study’s age grouping of (18 to 26)) were likely to be more sensitive to environmental issues.
Hypothesis H3.1H3 would be rejected. Hypothesis H3.4 and H3.5 would be accepted.
Analysis Set Hypotheses 4 The fourth set of hypotheses states that there is a positive correlation between higher education (ex. a masters degree) and knowledgeable with concern about environmental issues. The assumption that would follow would be that such correlated evidence would show that these groups would more likely participate in green activities as well as supporting green products. The results, from Table 11, have indicated that the Masters degreed respondents’ statistical means positively correlated across all three ethnicity. Chinese and Indian populations, with masters’ degrees or above, had the same higher mean score of 6.88. Overall education level of consumers does seem to correlated with their respective attitudes towards green products. Based on the research findings consolidated in Table 11, hypotheses H4.1H4.3 was accepted.
Table 11: Respondent’s Ethnicity & Educational Level Knowledge of Environmental Issues & Support for Green Products Educational Chinese Filipino Indian Level High School 6.19 None 6.25 or GED 24 year 5.81 6.32 6.60 College Degree Masters or 6.88 6.48 6.88 above
Table 12 shows that Indian respondents, with higher educational levels, reflected a greater propensity to supporting green activities by buying green products. Indians with educational level of masters’ degrees or above have mean scores of 6.36, substantially higher than the other two ethnic test subjects. Therefore, the hypothesis H4.4 was accepted.
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What is the Asian- American Consumer Behavior towards Green Marketing?
Table 12: Indian Respondent’s Educational Level – Propensity to Support Green Products Indians Average of Q19 SD of Q19 High school or GED 5.00 0.00 24 Yr. College Degree 5.00 1.56 Masters & above 6.36 1.16 Total 5.61 1.41
* Analysis Set Hypotheses 5 Geographical location has been another variable of interest for green marketers. Studies have considered the correlation between place of residence and environmental concerns in previous studies, some these have been identified within this paper.
Hypothesis H5.1 and H5.2 would be accepted.
* Details and calculations not available due to manuscript page limitations. Please contact the primary author for a copy of the complete manuscript ([email protected]).
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION This research has shown quite unequivocally that Asian definitely have opinions concerning the environment and green marketing activities. Although some of the hypotheses were rejected, there were measurable responses for all hypotheses the Asian respondents were willing to participate in this marketing study. The businesses in American must find ways to take advantage of these and other Asian’s interests.
Previous research has been predominantly conducted without consideration of the person’s ethnicity. This study’s finding suggests that most Chinese, Filipino and Indian persons consider their cultural to influence their consumer behavior. As such, product managers and marketers might consider including specific ethnic materials in their demographic profiling and proportioning of green consumers. Understanding the Asian consumption patterns and purchase decision process, may be able to assist marketers to penetrate these heavily populated ethnic groups.
Green products and services are only a niche market today but are poised for strong growth in the years to come (Bonini, 2008). Companies should not only focus on the environmental investment of their green products towards the American multiethnic consumers, but, also expend serious effort towards the costbenefit and consumer valueperceptions. When Asian and nonAsian consumers find it easy to track their savings from using a product, it would follow that they are more willing to rebuy and even try new green products. Of course, these companies would need to focus their energies towards increasing green product availability. How can companies make claim for new and enhanced safety, healthy and/or more cost effective to and for consumers if the consumers are unable to find their products? This would be particularly true for most Asians as they tend to congregate in large metropolitan areas.
Effective green marketing requires effectively applying appropriate marketing fundamentals to generate green product desirable outcomes. As national and international populations becoming more concerned about their environment and begin to more actively acknowledge their individual responsibility to care for the environment, it would follow that purchase behavior would likely change, and for the better. The research in this document has revealed that three traditionally untapped ethnic consumers in the America, Chinese, Filipino and Indians, have modified their purchasing behavior due to environmental concerns. As demands change, organizations should respond to these changes as a potentially growing marketing niche opportunity.
Given the increasing media coverage and political attention towards ‘green’ issues in the U.S., it would seem that environmental awareness and concern has become a socially accepted norm, and in some households, a daily conversation. With the current ecological conditions facing the U.S. and world, heightened levels of environmental consciousness are now being funded by our federal government in terms of energy and preemptive health programs. This set of surveys revealed a strong commitment from the AmericanAsian population towards their environmental responsibility. But because of the current economic conditions the U.S. is facing at present, the Asian consumer study results indicated average mean scores for these consumers regarding their willingness to spend more on green products and services. Though these Asians may not buy
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J. D. Williams and L. Lanaria Volume 7 – Fall 2009 large quantities of green products due to high prices and availability, their green product buying commitment mat nonethe less be sustained by their beliefs that greening is a worthwhile cause.
WORKS CITED A., C. (2000). Facing the Backlash: Green Marketing and Strategic Reorientation in the 1990s. Journal of Strategic Marketing. 8 (3). Pg. 277296. Anonymous. (2008, June 16). Why does Berkeley have so many Priuses? Green.view. Economist.com / Global Agenda . London: The Economist Newpaper Ltd. Armstrong, Gary and Philip Kotler (2008). Marketing: An Introduction. Prentice Hall. Ed. 9. Belk, R. (1995). Studies in the New Consumer Behaviour. In D. Miller, Acknowledging Consumption: A Review of New Studies. Routledge. Pg. 5895. Bergeron, J., BarbaroForleo, G., & Laroche, M. (2001). Targeting Consumers Who are Willing to Pay more for Environmentally Friendly Product. Journal of Consumer Marketing. 18 (6). Pg.. 503520. Bloom, P., Hoeffler, S., Keller, K. L., & Basurto Meza, C. (2006). How SocialCause Marketing Affects Consumer Perceptions. MITSloan Management Review , 47 (2). Pg. 4055. Bohlen, G. M., Diamantopoulos, A., & Schlegelmilch, B. B. (1996). The Link between Green Purchasing Decisions and Measures of Environmental Consciousness. European Journal of Marketing. 30 (5). Pg. 3555. Bonini, S., & Oppenheim, J. (2008). Cultivating the Green Consumer. Stanford Social Innovation Review. Pg. 5761. Covin, J. G., & Miles, M. P. (2000). Environmental Marketing: A Source of Reputational, Competitive, and Financial Advantage. Journal of Business Ethics. 23. Pg. 299311. Diamantopoulos, A., Schlegelmilch, B., Sinkovics, R. R., & Bohlen, G. M. (2003). Can Sociodemographics still Play a Role in Profiling Green Consumers? A Review of the Evidence and an Empirical Investigation. Journal of Business Research. United Kingdom: Elsevier. Pg. 465480. Dolliver, M. (2008, May 12). Deflating a Myth. Brandweek. Pg. 3032. Ferrell, O. C. & Michael Hartline (2007). Marketing Strategy. SouthWestern College Pub. Ed. 4. Hooley, Graham, John Saundeers, and Neigel F. Piercey (2008). Marketing Strategy and Competitive Positioning. Prentice Hall. Ed. 4. Horn, Greg (2006). Living Green: A Practical Guide o Simple Sustainability. Freedom Publishing Company. Grunert, S. C., & Juhl, H. J. (1995). Values, Environmental Attitudes, and Buying of oOrganic Foods. Journal of Economic Psychology. 16. Pg. 3962. Karna, J., Hansen, E., & Heikki, J. (2003). Social Responsibility in Environmental Marketing Planning. European Journal of Marketing. 37 (5/6). Pg. 848871. Kerin, Roger, Steven Hartley, & William Rudelius (2008). Marketing. McGrawHill/Irwin. Ed. 9. Masaaki Kotabe and Kristiaan Helsen (2007). Global Marketing Management. Wiley. Ed. Kotler, Philip and Kevin Keller (2008). Marketing Management. Prentice Hall. Ed. 13. Kotler, Philip & Nancy R. Lee (2007). Social Marketing Influencing Behaviors for Goods. Sage Publications, Inc. Ed. 3. Lamb, Charles W., Joseph F. Hair, & Carl McDaniel (2007). Marketing. SouthWestern College Pub. Ed. 9. Lunt, P. (1995). Psychological Approaches to Consumption. In D. Miller, Acknowledging Consumption: A Review of New Studies. Routledge. Pg. 238 263. Matheson, Christie (2008). Green Chic: Saving the earth in Style. Sourcebooks, Inc. Martin, B., & Simintiras, A. C. (1995). The Impact of Green Product Lines on the Environment: Does what They Know Affect how They Feel? Marketing Intelligence & Planning. 13 (4). Pg. 1623. McDaniel, S., & Rylander, D. H. (2001). Strategic Green Marketing. Journal Consumer Marketing. Pg. 410. Miller, D. (1995). Acknowledging Consumption: A Review of New Studies. Routledge. Minton, A. P., & Rose, R. L. (1997). The Effects of Environmental Concern on Environmentally Friendly Consumer Behavior: An Exploratory Study. Journal of Business Research. 40 (1). Pg. 3748. Ottman, J., Stafford, E., & Hartman, C. (2006, June). Avoiding Green Marketing Myopia. Environment. Heldref Publications. 48 (5). Pg. 2336. Peter, J. Paul &, James Donnelly (2008). Marketing Management. McGrawHill/Irwin. Ed. 9. Polonsky, M. J. (1995). A Stakeholder Approach to Designing Environmental Marketing Strategy. Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing. 10 (3). Pg. 2946. Polonsky, M. J. (1994, November). An Introduction to Green Marketing. Electronic Green Journal . Pride, William M. & O. C. Ferrell (2007). Marketing. SouthWestern College Pub. Ed. 14. Roberts, J. A. (1996). Green Consumers in the 1990s: Profile and Implications for Advertising. Journal of Business Research. 36 (3). Pg. 217231.
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Roberts, J. A., & Straughan, R. D. (1999). Environmental Segmentation Alternatives: A Look at Green Consumer Behavior in the New Millenium. The Journal of Consumer Marketing , 16 (6), Pg. 558. Shrum, L. J., McCarty, J. A., & Lowrey, T. M. (1995). Buyer Characteristics of the Green Consumer and their Implications for Advertising Strategy. Journal of Advertising , 24 (2), Pg.. 7182. Solomon, Michael R., Greg Marshall, & Elnora Stuart (2008). Marketing: Real People, Real Choices. Prentice Hall. Ed. 5. Stoneman, P., Turner, W., & Wong, V. (2005). Marketing Strategies and Market Prospects for EnvironmentallyFriendly Consumer Products. British Journal of Management. 7 (3). Pg. 263281. Wasik, J. F. (1996). Green Marketing and Management: A Global Perspective. Blackwell Publishing. Wikipedia. (2008, September 27). Supermarkets in the United States. Retrieved October 01, 2008, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supermarkets_in_the_United_States Wiser, R., & Pickle, S. (1997, September). Green Marketing, Renewables, and Free Riders: Increasing Customer Demand for a Public Good. Berkeley, California. Yusuf, F., & Brooks, G. (2004, December). An Emperical Examination of Domestic Fuel and Power Consumption in New South Wales: Marketing Implications for Greenhouse Gas Reduction. The Australian and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference . Wellington. Yusuf, F., & Brooks, G. (2004, December). An Empirical Examination of Domestic Fuel and Power Consumption in New South Wales: Marketing Implications for Greenhouse Gas Reduction. The Australian and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference . Wellington.
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APPENDIX
Consumer Survey Questionnaire
“How Green Marketing Affects AsianAmerican Consumer Behavior”
1. Which one best describes your nationality or ethnicity? (Circle one)
A. Chinese B. Filipino C. Indian D. Other*
*If answer to question 1 is “D. Other”, you may discontinue answering the survey.
2. Which age group do you belong? (Circle one)
A. 1826 years old B. 2735 years old C. 3650 years old D. Other*
*If answer to question 2 is “D. Other”, you may discontinue answering the survey.
3. Which gender group do you belong? (Circle one)
A. Male B. Female
4. Which one best describes your location in the United States? (Circle one)
A. Northeast B. West C. Midwest D. South
5. Which one best describes your educational level? (Circle one) A. High School/ GED Diploma B. 24 year degreed in College C. Master’s Degree or Above
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What is the Asian- American Consumer Behavior towards Green Marketing?
Instructions: Please rate the following statements below accordingly based on your personal preference. Check the appropriate column that best describes your response to the statements.
Question ongly ongly Strongly Disagree Disagree Somewhat Disagree Neither Nor Agree Disagree Somewhat Agree Agree Str Agree Not Applicable
I believe that my culture plays a role in my 6 consumer behavior. I believe that my purchasing behavior is 7 influenced by my ethnicity. I am aware of environmental issues around 8 me. I am concerned with the environmental 9 quality (air quality, pollution, etc.) in my community. I am willing to participate in environmental 10 friendly activities in my community. I make my own decision in purchasing a 11 product. I am familiar with the concept green 12 products. I would be more likely to buy green products 13 if I know or felt that other people are also supporting it. I am willing to support and buy products 14 from companies and businesses that are environmentally responsible. I refuse to buy products from companies 15 who are accused of being unfriendly to the environment (polluters). I would be more likely to buy green products if I read information about what makes a 16 product or service more environmentally friendly. I am willing to spend more money on green 17 products and services. I am aware that green products are more 18 environmentally friendly. I try to choose green products whenever 19 available. I realize that the products and services I buy 20 may affect the environment. I think that my green consumer behavior will 21 make a difference in saving the environment. I am proud to be a green consumer in the 22 supermarket. The places I shop make it easy for me to 23 identify green products. Advertising make it easy for me to identify 24 green products.
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I believe that people are not informed 25 enough about green products being environmentally friendly. I believe that companies, in general, are not 26 advertising enough about their green products. I believe that the local government should be responsible for educating consumers 27 about green products being environmentally friendly. I believe that the academia should be responsible for educating consumers about 28 green products being environmentally friendly. I believe that the company itself should be responsible for educating consumers about 29 green products being environmentally friendly. I try to convince other people close to me to 30 buy green product because of its benefits to the environment. I buy green products because of social 31 status. 32 I buy green products because it’s the fad. I buy green products because I believe its 33 cause.
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Economic Value Creation from Technology Entrepreneurship: A Comparative Analysis of Sales Growth of High-Technology Industries Listed in the Fortune 1000 Rankings from 2006-2009 ECONOMIC VALUE CREATION FROM TECHNOLOGY ENTREPRENEURSHIP: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SALES GROWTH OF HIGHTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIES LISTED IN THE FORTUNE 1000 RANKINGS FROM 20062009
Simon S. Mak and Stephen Szygenda Southern Methodist University, USA
ABSTRACT This paper examines the economic impact and value creation of technology entrepreneurship. Specifically in this paper we compare and contrast the sales growth rates of firms in two hightechnology industry categories (Internet Services and Retailing and Network and Other Communications Equipment) with firms in “Other” (approximately 50) industry categories that were listed in the Fortune 1000 Top Industries: Fast Growers rankings from 2006 to 2009. This data set was chosen for two reasons: 1) to eliminate the bias of rapid growth rates at the startup and early stages of a firm and 2) since the companies are listed as a Fortune 1000 company, the company has established itself as a viable ongoing business and thus the likelihood of success moving forward is more probable than a firm at the startup phase. The analysis shows that from 2006 2009, the average annual sales growth rates in the Internet Services and Retailing (19.5%) industry and in the Network and Other Communications Equipment (14.6%) industry categories were statistically significant when compared to the Other (7.5%) industry category. In addition, the analysis also shows that technology startups that have reached Fortune 100 status in the Internet Services and Retailing and Network and Other Communications Equipment industry categories achieved an annual average sales growth rate at the 90% level of confidence of 5.8% to 18.0% and 4.9% to 9.2% greater than the average sales growth rate of firms in the Other industry category, respectively. When measured in relative terms, i.e., proportional growth rate versus the average for Other firms, Internet Services and Retailing industry firms created economic value between 77% (5.8/7.5) to 240% (18.0/7.5) faster than firms in the Other category, and Network and Other Communications Equipment firms created economic value between 65% (4.9/7.5) to 123% (9.2/7.5) faster than firms in the Other category. The data seems to indicate that economic value is created at a faster rate for hightechnology firms than nonhightechnology firms. This should not be a surprising conclusion for technology firms at the startup and early stages of growth. However, it is unexpected that this faster growth rate continues even after the technology startup has achieved Fortune 1000 status. The longterm implications are clear for technology entrepreneurs as well as venture investors, policy makers, and academia technology startups provide a very efficient and rapid vehicle for creating economic value, and they continue to do so at a rate significantly faster than their nontechnology counterparts even after reaching “steadystate” status. Therefore, much more attention should be given to encouraging highgrowth technology startup formations and their subsequent establishment as a Fortune 1000like company. This includes fostering a spirit of entrepreneurship with engineering and science students and faculty as well as creating economic incentives for investors and entrepreneurs to pursue hightechnology startups.
Keywords: Technology Entrepreneurship, Economic Value Creation, Economic Development, Company Growth
INTRODUCTION This paper examines the economic impact and value creation of technology entrepreneurship, with a focus on sales growth rate. In doing so, we analyze industry data from the 2006 to 2009 Fortune 1000 Top Industries: Fast Growers rankings. This data set was chosen for two reasons: 1) to eliminate the bias of rapid growth rates at the startup and early stages of a firm and 2) since the companies are listed as a Fortune 1000 company, the company has established itself as a viable ongoing business and thus the likelihood of success moving forward is more probable than a firm at the startup phase.
Technology entrepreneurship is widely recognized as playing a key role in increasing local, regional, and even national wealth and competitiveness (Boocock, Frank, Warren, 2009). Even so, there is very little research which analyzes and quantifies the economic impact and value creation of technology firms. A goal of this paper is to encourage policy makers (both public and private) to give serious consideration to proactively encouraging and supporting the startup of technology firms. For the engineer or technologist, our hope is to inspire them to see the positive and highly efficient impact that is possible through the creation of a successful technology enterprise, including the creation of wealth for the technology entrepreneur, employees, and the local economy. For academic institutions, this paper is a call to be more proactive in teaching engineering and science students the fundamental concepts of entrepreneurship as these students will be the key to creating technologies that that can radically change and improve society.
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THE DATA SET The 20062009 Fortune 1000 Top Industries: Fast Growers Rankings For this paper, we will be using industry data rather than specific company data that is available from the Fortune 500 website. Specifically we will analyze data in the section of the website for Top Industries and select the Fast Growers option. For example, the 2009 industry data for fast growers is listed at http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2009/ performers/industries/fastgrowers/ and is shown in Table 1. There are analogous data for 2008, 2007, and 2006. Note that for 2009 and 2008 there are 52 industry categories and for 2007 and 2006 there are 50 industry categories. Also, throughout these four years, some industry categories have been removed/added/renamed, but for our analysis, no adjustments were needed. We then selected two hightechnology industries to analyze Internet Services and Retailing and Network and Other Communications Equipment. This decision was made primarily through researching hightechnology venture capital websites and both of these industry categories were very prominent investments types. There were other hightechnology industries such as Computer Software which did not make it on the Fast Growers list and it is unclear why this is the case. Nevertheless, the methodology is to analyze the average sales growth rates for these 2 hightechnology industry categories and compare them to the average sales growth rates of the approximately 50 remaining industry categories which we will refer to as “Other”. Table 2 and Figure 1 show a summary of the data.
Table 1: Sales Growth Data from 2009 Fortune 1000 Top Industries: Fast Growers Rankings Rank Industry % 1 Pipelines 27.3 2 Engineering, Construction 26.8 3 Petroleum Refining 25.2 4 Mining, CrudeOil production 23.9 5 Oil and Gas Equipment, Services 19.8 6 Energy 16.4 7 Construction and Farm Machinery 16.1 8 Metals 16.1 9 Food Production 15.9 10 Industrial Machinery 13.3 11 Network and Other Communications Equipment 13.2 12 Railroads 12.6 13 Health Care: Insurance and Managed Care 12.1 14 Financial Data Services 11.8 15 Health Care: Pharmacy and Other Services 11.6 16 Internet Services and Retailing 11.3 17 Medical Products and Equipment 9.9 18 Electronics, Electrical Equipment 9.3 19 Food Services 9.3 20 Food Consumer Products 9.1 21 Food and Drug Stores 9.0 22 Household and Personal Products 9.0 23 Chemicals 7.5 24 Scientific, Photographic, and Control Equipment 7.1 25 Utilities: Gas and Electric 7.0 26 Pharmaceuticals 7.0 27 Aerospace and Defense 6.9 28 Health Care: Medical Facilities 6.9 29 Wholesalers: Health Care 6.8 30 Information Technology Services 6.7 31 Wholesalers: Electronics and Office Equipment 6.1
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Economic Value Creation from Technology Entrepreneurship: A Comparative Analysis of Sales Growth of High-Technology Industries Listed in the Fortune 1000 Rankings from 2006-2009
Table 1: Sales Growth Data from 2009 Fortune 1000 Top Industries: Fast Growers Rankings (Continued) 32 Airlines 5.4 33 Wholesalers: Diversified 4.8 34 Telecommunications 4.8 35 Specialty Retailers 4.2 36 Beverages 4.2 37 Entertainment 3.1 38 Computers, Office Equipment 2.2 39 Packaging, Containers 1.0 40 Securities 0.9 41 Insurance: Life, Health (mutual) 1.2 42 Semiconductors and Other Electronic Components 2.2 43 General Merchandisers 2.9 44 Motor Vehicles and Parts 4.4 45 Commercial Banks 5.0 46 Hotels, Casinos, Resorts 5.2 47 Insurance: Life, Health (stock) 7.8 48 Home Equipment, Furnishings 9.2 49 Real Estate 11.1 50 Automotive Retailing, Services 11.1 51 Insurance: Property and Casualty (stock) 12.6 52 Diversified Financials 15.9
Table 2: Average Sales Growth Data from 2006 to 2007 Fortune 1000 Top Industries: Fast Growers Rankings
YearOverYear Sales Growth (%) Yearly Average Fortune 1000 Top Industries: Fast Growers 2006 2007 2008 2009 20062009 Internet Services and Retailing 23.8 24.2 18.5 11.3 19.5 Network and Other Communications Equipment 15.8 13.9 15.6 13.2 14.6 Others (Average for Approx. 50 Industries) 6.6 10.1 7.3 6.2 7.5
Figure 1: Chart: Average Sales Growth Data from 2006 to 2007 Fortune 1000 Top Industries: Fast Growers Rankings
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ANALYSIS OF SALES GROWTH RATES DATA The analysis of company sales growth data will utilize mathematical techniques for testing the statistical significance between two average means using analysis of variance (ANOVA), and then estimating the confidence interval for the difference between the means of two populations for small sample size (n<30).
Test of Statistical Significance Using ANOVA The first analysis is to show that the average sales growth rates for the Internet Services and Retailing and Network and Other Communications Equipment industry categories are statically significant when compared to the overall average sales growth rate of the Other approximately 50 remaining industry category. Table 3 shows the ANOVA tables for comparing the A) Internet Services and Retailing and B) Network and the Other Communications Equipment industries with the Other industry, respectively. Based on the two ANOVA tables we see that the F values for both hightechnology industries are greater than the F critical value of 5.98, thus statistical significance is demonstrated. It is also interesting to note that the F value for the Network and Other Communications Equipment industry of 41.3 is much greater than the F value of 14.34 for the Internet Services and Retailing industry. This is due to the high variance in the Internet Services and Retailing industry average.
Table 3: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) for Comparing the Internet Services and Retailing and Network and the Other Communications Equipment industries with the Other industry, respectively.
Calculation of Confidence Interval For The Difference Of Two Means We begin with calculating the key statistical parameters mean and variance for all three datasets, where for the Internet Services and Retailing industry data, for the Network and the Other Communications Equipment industry data, and for the Other industry data. Thus we obtain:
For the Internet Services and Retailing industry:
19.45 and = 36.27, where =4
For the Network and the Other Communications Equipment industry:
14.63 and = 1.63, where =4
For the Other industry:
7.54 and = 3.22, where =4
Assuming normally distributed population and the variances of the population are equal, we can calculate the confidence interval for the difference between the means of the Internet industry and the Other industry.
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Economic Value Creation from Technology Entrepreneurship: A Comparative Analysis of Sales Growth of High-Technology Industries Listed in the Fortune 1000 Rankings from 2006-2009
Pooled Estimator of = 19.74
Point Estimator of = 3.14
At the 90% level of confidence, ( = 1.943, where degree of freedom for = 6
Therefore, difference in means confidence interval is = = 19.45 – 7.54 ± 1.943 (3.14) = [5.79, 18.01]
We now perform the same calculation for the Network and the Other Communications Equipment industry and the Other industry.
Pooled Estimator of = 2.42
Point Estimator of = 1.10
At the 90% level of confidence, ( = 1.943
Therefore, difference in means confidence interval is = = 14.63 – 7.54 ± 1.943 (1.10) = [4.94, 9.22]
SUMMARY OF RESULTS The analysis shows that from 20062009, the average annual sales growth rates in the Internet Services and Retailing (19.5%) industry and in the Network and Other Communications Equipment (14.6%) industry categories were statistically significant when compared to the Other (7.5%) industry category. In addition, the analysis also shows that technology startups that have reached Fortune 1000 status in the Internet Services and Retailing and Network and Other Communications Equipment industry categories achieved an annual average sales growth rate at the 90% level of confidence of 5.8% to 18.0% and 4.9% to 9.2% greater than the annual average sales growth rate of firms in the Other industry category, respectively. When measured in relative terms, i.e., proportional growth rate versus the average for Other firms, Internet Services and Retailing industry firms created economic value between 77% (5.8/7.5) to 240% (18.0/7.5) faster than firms in the Other category, and Network and Other Communications Equipment firms created economic value between 65% (4.9/7.5) to 123% (9.2/7.5) faster than firms in the Other category.
The results of this research provide a basis for investigating additional questions, including:
Analyzing all hightechnology industries to determine which industries demonstrate the fastest growth just within the high technology sector, since our primary interest is in technology entrepreneurship and the economic impact from these endeavors Analyzing company age information to derive statistics for determining how fast a technology startup typically achieves Fortune 1000 status and thus estimating the “payback period” for investments in economic value creation Expanding the Fortune 1000 dataset to include global, i.e., none U.S., firms. It is clear that global technology entrepreneurship is an economic driving force across geographic boundaries, hence, how this is taking place and what could enhance success of these efforts becomes a research of major importance globally.
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CONCLUSIONS AND LONGTERM IMPLICATIONS The data seems to indicate that economic value is created at a faster rate for hightechnology firms than nonhightechnology firms. This should not be a surprising conclusion for technology firms at the startup and early stages of growth. However, it is unexpected that this faster growth rate continues even after the technology startup has achieved Fortune 1000 status. In 2009, this meant that the technology firm generated sales of over $1.72 billion (Fortune 500 rankings website).
The longterm implications are clear for technology entrepreneurs as well as venture investors, policy makers, and academia technology startups provide a very efficient and rapid vehicle for creating economic value, and they continue to do so at a rate significantly faster than their nontechnology counterparts even after reaching “steadystate” status. Therefore, much more attention should be given to encouraging highgrowth technology startup formations and their subsequent establishment as a Fortune 1000like company. This includes fostering a spirit of entrepreneurship with engineering and science students and faculty as well as creating economic incentives for investors and entrepreneurs to pursue hightechnology startups.
REFERENCES Boocock, G., Frank, Regina., and Warren, L. (2009), ‘Technologybased entrepreneurship education: meeting educational and business objectives’, The International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Vol 10, pp4353. Fortune 500 Rankings website, http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2009/index.html
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Sustainable Development in Tourism Industry Context in Taiwan
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN TOURISM INDUSTRY CONTEXT IN TAIWAN
ChihWen Wu National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan
ABSTRACT The purpose of this research was to develop and test a conceptual framework for sustainable development in tourism industry context to address the integration of social, economic, and ecological elements of sustainable development and the contextual nature of sustainable development. Resourcebased view theory was used to model the driving force, state and response indicators of sustainability development for tourism industry. Data was collected by the official census developed by the Taiwan Tourism Bureau. Indicators such as employment in the tourism industry, expenditures attributed to the tourism industry, air and water quality, tourism service, and hotel issues were used in the study. Structural equation modeling using AMOS software platform was used to generate and analyze the hypothesized relationships. The research results will be discussed.
Keywords: Sustainable Development, Tourism Industry, ResourceBased View Theory, Structural Equation Modeling
1. INTRODUCTION A common criticism of sustainable tourism development is that there is no consistently agreed upon theoretical framework from which a scientific understanding can be built (Cocklin, 1995). Without guidance from theory that is verified through testing, the theoretical framework or model can be used inappropriate and lead to poor planning. Any tourism destination without an adequate plan for development that addresses the economic as well as social and environmental functions of the industry is underprepared for the impacts of visitors, catastrophic events, and enforcing market forces.
Without an understanding of these potential impacts on the environmenteconomic fabric of a industry, the sustainability of that industry is questionable. Therefore, a need exists to understand the complex interplay between the economic, environmental and social dynamics of a industry. Furthermore, Brundland (1987) warned that a persistent ignorance of the inseparability of these elements would constitute a mistake by the global community, and human needs must understand. Many approaches, however, tend to focus on only an aspect of a system overall sustainability, either environment or economic sustainablility (Cooper and Vargas, 2004). Mathieson and Wall (1982) recognized the scope of tourism impacts to exist in the economic, physical and social arenas. Cocklin (1995) the efforts have been superficial and omit reference to the social dimensions of sustainability. TwiningWard (1999) interpreted this apparent lack of attention to the social aspects of sustainable tourism development as an impediment to move sustainability from principles to policy making.
Efforts to create universal principles of sustainable tourism development have also come under criticism as understanding. Sustainable systems, according to Meyer and Helfman (1993) are not generalized at the global scale, but are adaptable to local conditions. The study addresses the contextual nature of sustainable tourism development. This is done by using a Delphimethod developed set of sustainability indicators by the World Tourism Organization to examine various issues of sustainability at a destination. Taiwan was examined using these indicators because the country has a number of attractive destinations within its borders and infant tourism product development.
Resource based view theory guides the formation of a conceptual framework that is fashioned from two concepts. Past research on tourism development has focused primarily on a perspective of economic or social impacts. Although this approach has resulted in a wealth of knowledge, any interconnectedness between economy and environment is only assumed. Looking at sustainable tourism development from a resource perspective is more complex, an empirical study for knowledge contribution is very important.
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2. LITERATURE REVIEW: Sustainable development has received intense attention in both academic research and mass media in the late 20 years. The concept grew out of dissatisfaction with entrenched policies of continuous economic growth and unequal distribution of benefits and costs (Bramwell and Lane, 1993; Hardy, Beeton and Pearson, 2002). Similarly, sustainable development for tourism industry is found to be difficult to define( Swarbrooke,1999), The term could be defined as a form of tourism sustained over a period time (Butler, 1999). Accordingly, tourism industry that meets the needs of today’s tourists without taking away from the future generations the resource necessary to fulfill their own needs. Thus, the controversy exists over a definition for sustainable tourism development.
The most widely quoted definition of sustainable development is the one provided by the Brundtland Report, the report says that “sustainable development is development that meets the needs of present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs,” (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987, p.43). According to Wall (1997) and Hunter (1995), two important ingredients are included in this statement: human needs and environmental limitations. For the World Commission, the major objective of development is to satisfy human needs and aspirations for a better quality of life for all people.
In other words, sustainable development means long term economic sustainability within a framework of long term ecological sustainability plus the issue of equity (Woodley, 1992). Indeed, the tension between economy and natural environment was the dominant dilemma addressed by the Brundtland Report (Ding and Pizam, 1995; Garrod and Fyall, 1998; Wall, 2002). However, there are other dimensions which deserve to be sustained such as culture (Craik, 1995; Wall, 1997; Butler, 1998). Farrel (1992) also understood sustainable development as the need to find a balance in the development system between economy, environment and society.
Miltin (1992) suggested that sustainable development has two components: the meaning of development and conditions necessary for sustainability. Social, moral, ethical and environmental concerns (Ingham, 1993) and local empowerment (Wall, 1993) were incorporated into the concept. Today, sustainable development is generally viewed as a process that improves people’s living conditions (Bartelmus, 1986). It involves broader concerns about the quality of life, such as life expectancy, educational attainment, access to basic freedoms, nutritional status and common welfare (Pearce, Barbier and Markandya, 1990). Accordingly, the definition of development has been broadened to encompass a continuous and global process of human development guided by the principle of selfreliance, which embrace economic, sociocultural, environment as well as ethical considerations (Wall, 1997; Sharpley, 2002).
Coccossis (1996) suggested that sustainable development for tourism is being understood variously based on different perspectives. It can be regarded as “ economic sustainability of tourism” in which basic goal is the viability of tourist activity. Here, the emphasis is placed on the need to achieve a balance between commercial and environmental interests for the sake of ensuring the perpetuation of tourism itself (Butler, 1993). Tourism is not the only user of resources. The appropriation of resources in the narrow interests of the tourism industry may not be compatible with the best interests of the broader community (Wall, 1997).
Sustainable development adopting a multisector perspective to development, requires holism and an appreciation of the interconnectedness of phenomena (Wall, 1997; 2002). It may incorporate tourism as part of the strategy to achieve sustainability (Tosun, 2001). This implies that the tourism industry should not seek for its own perpetuity at the cost of other sectors. Tourism development should be made consistent with the general tenets of sustainable development by determining specific principles (Stabler and Goodall, 1996; TwiningWard, 1999). In other words, specific principles should be developed to guide tourism operation in a sound direction.
3. PROPOSED MANAGEMENT The most current forms of sustainability are based on ideas of resource management that preclude excessive consumption in order to promote intergenerational equity and responsibility. The view has increasingly has been negated as both empirical evidence demonstrates the serious social, environmental and economic impacts tourism can bring to a nation or community (Dogan, 1989; King, Pizam and Milman, 1993; Wang and Miko, 1997). Tourism is an ancient human activity. Some industry academicians see the tourism industry when accounting for every sector and subsector with a role to play in providing services to the tourist as the largest industry in the world (Goeldner and Ritchie, 2003). In summary, nation may find it necessary to limit the extent of the negative impacts associated with tourism.
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Tourism industry has been identified as one of the largest and fastest growing industries (Miller, 1990; Hunter, 1995; McMinn, 1997). For some developed or developing countries, tourism industry makes up a critical component of local, regional and national economies, contributing significantly to employment creation, GDP growth and foreign exchange earnings. The notion of sustainable development was raised common concern of policy makers, academic researchers and industry practitioners (Hunter, 1995). As a result, increasingly at all levels development is being remodeled along the lines of sustainable development (Farrell, 1999).
Empirical studies show that sustainable development strategies provide opportunities to multinational companies(MNCs) to deal with complicated issues as well as to gain competitive advantage. Sharma and Vredenburg (1998) examined how proactive environmental firms can build organizational capabilities to gain competitive advantages. Rondinelli and Berry (2000) demonstrates how environmental programs contribute to pursue sustainable development objectives. Sharma, Vredenburg and Westley (1994) used a case study approach to describe the role of a MNCs in host country’s development while Moser (2001) used statistical analysis to demonstrate how the incorporation of sustainable business practice can benefit both firms and host countries in Latin American.
4. METHODOLOGY Structural equation modeling will be employed as a statistical approach to analyze hypothesized relationships between variables and indicators that is used in the research to provide a mean of testing the relationships outlined in the conceptual framework. This method of statistical analysis allows researchers to understand where important relationships exist. Each indicator recommended by the World Tourism Organization and available from Taiwan Tourism Breaus for study in the study were assigned to the driving force, which were defined in the structural equation model as latent or unobserved variables and their relationships were examined through structural equation modeling. These indicators include but are not limited to: employment in the tourism industry, the ratio of individuals employed in the tourism industry to overall employment, air quality, drinking water quality, availability of tourism services in Taiwan, hotel issues and demographic information.
5. EVALUATION OF PROPOSED MANAGEMENT The research results of the empirical analysis illustrate where important relationships between elements of a tourism destination (Taiwan) exists and how this influences common concepts of sustainable tourism development managing a tourism product. Therefore, the research problems was addressed two prevalent sustainable tourism development issues: the lack of a theoretical framework that enables the researcher to incorporate the economic, social and environmental elements of a system, and the contextual nature of sustainable tourism development. These issues are addressed with the application of resource based view theory as a theory as a theoretical framework for understanding the interactions of sustainable tourism development.
This study is seeking to investigate the sustainable tourism development with the expectation that it becomes a useful solution in addressing the negative impacts of tourism. Results from this investigation will be used to identify and categorise resourcebased tools/applications and describe their potential uses in destination management for sustainable tourism. Additionally, these resourcebased tools/applications can be used will be identified and the current approaches in destination management for the using to these tools will be investigated and evaluated. A research framework will also be developed that will guide destination managers in the best selection of management strategy and public policy for their respective destinations. Finally, it is anticipated that these results will be used by destination managers and destination management organisations as part of their strategy in dealing with sustainability issues of tourism destinations.
6. CONCLUSION In summary, the objective of this study was to address the apparent lack of a theoretical framework for sustainable tourism development, attempt to the integrate social, economic, and ecological elements of sustainable tourism development and address the contextual nature of sustainable tourism development. Resource based view theory was used as a foundation for examining the tourism industry in a holistic manner. General indicators of tourism sustainability, as suggested by the World Tourism Organization, were operationalised as a realistic model for Taiwan tourism industry context in an effort to from the beginning of sustainable tourism development. Ideally, the conceptual framework and theoretical model developed for this study will some implications for tourism business planners and policy decision makers. If the tourism industry planners or those charged with participating in economic development and growth associated with a tourism product have a simple and easy to use model, they may better be able to inform decisions made about development actions. Future intention of modeling
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REFERENCES Bartelmus, P. (1986) Enviroment and Development. Boston: Allen and Unwin. Bramwell, B. and Lane, B. (1993) Sustaining tourism: An evolving global approach. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 1 (1), 15. Butler, R. (1990) Alternative tourism: pious hope or trojan horse? Journal of Travel Research Vol 28 (3), 9196. Butler, R.W. (1991) Tourism, environment and sustainable development Environmental Conservation 18 (3), 2019. Butler, J.R. (1992) Ecotourism: Its Chanding Face and Evolving Phiposophy paper presented to the IUCN IV World Congress on National Parks and Protected Areas. Butler, R.W. (1993) TourismAn Evolutionary Perspective. In J. G. Nelson, R. Butler& G. Wall(eds.) Tourism and Sustainable Development: Mornitoring. Planning, Managing, 2643. Waterloo: Heritage Resources Centre, University of Waterloo. Butler, R.W. (1995) Seasonality in tourism: issues and problems in Seaton, A V et al (eds) Tourism: the State of the Art Wiley, London. Butler, R.W. (1998)Sustainable Tourismlooking Backward in Order to Progress? In C.M. Hall& A.A. Lew(eds.) Sustainable Tourism: A Geographical Perspective,2534. New York: Addison Wesley Longman Ltd. Butler, R.W. (1999) Sustainable Tourism: A StateoftheArt Review. Tourism Geographies1( 1), 725. Clarke, J. (1997) A framework of approaches to sustainable tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism Vol 5, 224233. Coccossis, H. (1996) Tourism and Sustainability: Perspectives and Implications. In G.K. Priestley, J.A. Edwards& H. Coccossis(eds.) Sustainable Tourism? European Experiences, 121, Wallingford: CAB International. Cocklin, C.R. (1995) Methodological problems in evaluating sustainability. Environmental Conservation, 16 (4), 343351. Cooper, P.J. and Vargas, C.M. (2004) Implementing Sustainable Development: From Global Policy to Local Action. Rowman and Littlefield. Craik, J. (1995) Are There Cultural Limits to Tourism? Journal of Sustainable Tourism 3 (2), 8798. Ding, P.& Pigram, J. (1995) Environmental Audits: An Emerging Concept in Sustainable Tourism Development. The Journal of Tourism Studies 6 (2), 210. Dogan, H.Z. (1989) Forms of adjustment: Sociocultural inpacts of tourism. Annals of Tourism Research 16 (2), 21636. Farrell, B. (1992) Tourism as An Element in Sustainable Development: Hana, Maui. In V. Smith& W. Eadington (eds.) Tourism Alternatives,115132. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvanis Press. Farrell, B.H. (1999) Conventional or Sustainable Tourism? No Room for Choice. Tourism Management 20, 189191. Fyall, A. and Garrod, B. (1998) Heritage tourism, pricing and the environment. Insights Vol 9, A155159. Garrod, B. and Fyall, A. (1998) Beyond the rhetoric of sustainable tourism? Tourism Management Vol 19 (3), 199212. Goeldner, C. and J. Ritchie (2003) Tourism: principles, practice, philosophies. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Hardy, A. L., Beeton, S. J. R., & Pearson, L. (2002). Sustainable Tourism: An Overview of the Concept and its Position in Relation to Conceptualisations of Tourism . Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 10, 475496. Hjalager, A. (2002). Repairing innovation defectiveness in tourism. Tourism Management, 23, 465474. Hunter, C. (1995) On the need to reconceptualise sustainable tourism development. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 3 (3), 15565. Hunter, C. (1997) Sustainable tourism as an adaptive paradigm. Annals of Tourism Research 24 (4), 85067. Ingham, B. (1993) The Meaning of Development: Interactions Between New and Old Ideas. World Development 2, (11), 1803 1821. King, B. Pizam A. & Milman A. (1993). Social Impacts of Tourism: Host Perception. Annals of Tourism Research, 20,650665. Liburd, L. J. (2005). Sustainable tourism and innovation on mobile tourism services. Tourism Review International, 9, 107 118. Mathieson, A& Wall, G (1982) Tourism: Economic, physical and social impacts Longman Scientific and Techical, Essex. Mathieson, A& Wall, G (1986) Tourism: Economic, physical and social impacts. New York: Longruan, Ins. McMinn, S. (1997) The challenge of sustainable tourism. The Environmentalist,17 (2), 135141. Meyer, J.L. and G.S. Helfman. (1993) The ecological basis of sustainability. Ecology Applied 3 (4), 569. Miller, G (2003) Consumerism in sustainable tourism: a survey of UK consumers, Journal of Sustainable Tourism Vol 11 (1), 1739. Miltin, D. (1992) Sustainable Development: A Guide to the Literature. Environment and Urbanization 4, 111124. Moser, P., (2001), "Glorification, Disillusionment or the Way into the Future? The Significance of Local Agenda 21 Processes for the Needs of Local Sustainability", Local Environment, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 453467. Pearce, D. Barbier, E. & Markandya, A. (1990) Sustainable Development, Economics and Environmental in the Third World. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
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Rondinelli D.and Berry M. (2000) Environmental citizenship in multinational corporations: Social responsibility and sustainable development. European Management Journal, 18 (1), 7084. Schianetz, K., Kavanagh, L., & Lockington, D. (2007). Concepts and tools for comprehensive sustainability assessments for tourism destinations: a comparative review. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 15, 369389. Sharma, S. and H. Vredenburg (1998) ‘Proactive Corporate Environmental Strategy and the Development of Competitively Valuable Organizational Capabilities’, Strategic Management Journal 19, 729753. Sharma, H. Vredenburg and F. Westley: 1994, ‘Strategic Bridging: A Role for the Multinational Corporation in Third World Development,’ Journal of Applied Behavioral Science 30 (4), 458476. Sharpley, R. (2000) Tourism and Sustainable Development: Exploring the Theoretical Divide Journal of Sustainable Tourism 8 (1), 117. Sharpley, R. (2002) Sustainability: A Barrier to Tourism Development? In R. Sharpley & D.J. Telfer (eds.) Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues. Clevedon: Channel View Publication. Stabler, M. & Goodall, B. (1996) Environmental Auditing in Planning for Sustainable Island Tourism. In L. Briguglio et al. (eds.) Sustainable Tourism in Islands and Small States: Issues and Policies,170196. London: Pinter. Swarbrooke, J. (1999). Sustainable tourism management. Oxon: CAB International. Tosun, C. (1998) Roots of Unsustainable Tourism Development at the Local Level: the Case of Urgup in Turkey. Tourism Management 19, (6), 595610. Tosun, C. (2001) Challenge of Sustainable Tourism Development in the Developing World: the Case of Turkey. Tourism Management 22, 289303. TwiningWard, L. (1999) Towards Sustainable Tourism Development: Observations from A Distance. Tourism Management 20, 187188. UNWTO (2007). Another record year for world tourism. World Tourism Organisation. Madrid: Spain. UNWTO (2004). Indicators of sustainable development for tourism destinations: a guidebook. Madrid: World Tourism Organisation. Wall, G. (1993a) International Collaboration in the Search for Sustainable Tourism in Bali, Indonesia. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 1, (1), 3847. Wall, G. (1993b) Towards A Tourism Typology. In J.G. Nelson, R. Butler & G. Wall(eds.) Tourism and Sustainable Development: Monitoring, Planning, Manageing,4558. University of Waterloo: Heritage Resource Centre. Wall, G (1997) Is Ecotourism Sustainable? Environmental Management 21 (4), 483491. Wall, G. (1998) Impacts of tourism: theory and practice. Tourism Reaction Research Vol 22 (2), 5758. Wall, G. (2002) Sustainable Development: Political Rhetoric or Analytical Construct? Tourism Recreation Research 27 (3), 89 91. Wang, C.Y.,& Miko, P. S.(1997)Environmental impacts of tourism on U.S. National Parks. Journal of Travel Research . 35(winter), 3137. Woodley, A. (1992) Tourism and Sustainable Development: the Community Perspective. In J.G. Nelson, R. Butler & G. Wall(eds.) Tourism and Sustainable Development: Monitoring. Planning and Managing,135147. Univerity of Waterloo: Heritage Resources Centre. World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our Common Future. Australian edition. Melbourne: Oxford University Press. World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC) World Tourism Organization (WTO) and Earth Council (1995) Agenda 21 for the Travel and Tourism Industry: Towards Environmentally Sustainable Development. London: WTTC.
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DO CHANGES IN REGULATION HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NUMBER OF BANK FAILURES?
Harrison C. Hartman1 University of Georgia, USA
ABSTRACT This paper finds some evidence supporting the hypothesis that deregulation of depository institutions leads to an increase in the number of institutions failing, with a delay or a lag. After reviewing some major changes in regulation and discussing how changes in regulation could have led to changes in the number of institutions failing, I present some preliminary regressions testing whether deregulation leads to an increase in the number of bank failures.
Keywords: Regulation, Deregulation, Financial Crises, Banking
INTRODUCTION According to Burton and Lombra (2006), the goals of financial regulation are to promote a smooth, efficient financial system allowing financial organizations to earn profits while simultaneously trying to prevent financial crises and minimize the damage during any crises that occur. Over the last century, the United States has experienced many changes in the regulation of financial services. During the Great Depression, Congress introduced new regulations responding to circumstances that were judged to contribute to the financial crisis at that time. The early 1980s brought an era of deregulation in financial services. The deregulation was followed by unsatisfactory results for many commercial banks and savings and loans associations (S&Ls). Around the same time that a wave of commercial bank and S&L failures occurred, Congress enacted a wave of increasing regulation in the late 1980s and early 1990s. After the wave of failures subsided, Congress again allowed deregulatory changes. At the time of this writing, the United States is experiencing another financial crisis, and calls for greater regulation are being made.
At this point, a few questions arise. What were some of the changes in the laws regarding the regulation of depository institutions? How could these changes have created or solved problems for depository institutions and their customers? And are changes in the number of bank failures predictable? The second section of the paper discusses changes in regulation. The third section offers statistical analysis, while the fourth section concludes.
AN OVERVIEW OF CHANGES IN THE REGULATION OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS The material in this section owes a great deal to Burton and Lombra (2006). Considerable information is also in Mishkin (2004).
In the 1920s, Congress weighed the advantages and disadvantages of a banking market structure with many smallersized banks or fewer but larger banks. The advantages of smallersized banks included, according to the thinking at the time, an environment of more competition leading to better service and more financial innovations. Additional perceived advantages were higher rates paid to depositors and lower rates charged on loans, plus less damage per bank failure should a bank become insolvent. For a market structure with fewer banks that tend to be larger in size, advantages were perceived to be a lower probability of a bank failure due to higher rates charged on loans and lower rates paid to depositors. However, if a larger bank would happen to fail, there could be much more damage per failure. Congress passed the McFadden Act of 1927 which prohibited banks from operating branches in more than one state (with the exception of some states allowing statechartered banks not part of the Federal Reserve System to operate in more than one state) and forced banks to obey the laws of the states in which they operated.
At least some of the experiences following the repeal of the McFadden Act contradict the concerns of the legislators in Congress who passed the McFadden Act. For example, bank profit margins may have actually decreased due to entry of banks and other organizations from other states and other countries into the market.
1 Do not quote without the written permission of the author.
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Do Changes in Regulation have an Impact on the Number of Bank Failures?
The GlassSteagall Act of 1933 made three fundamental changes in an effort to solve perceived problems with the United States financial system which were blamed for either causing or at least exacerbating the financial crisis that occurred during the Great Depression. Although some subsequent studies question the following analysis, the thinking at the time was that banks competed so strongly for deposits, that banks offered higher and higher interest rates on deposits to attract customers. Banks must earn a higher interest rate on loans than the interest rate that banks pay their depositors (in the absence of fees much greater than current bank fees in the U.S.) to have a chance at earning profits. Thus, analysis in the 1930s reasoned that banks were forced to seek borrowers willing to pay high interest rates. Those borrowers could have been stock market speculators who suffered tremendous losses between 1929 and 1932, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from 381 to 41 (Burton and Lombra, 2006). Thus, the GlassSteagall Act (a) separated commercial banking (checking deposits and business loans) from investment banking (initial offerings of stocks and bonds), (b) imposed interest rate ceilings, and (c) established the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Although the legislators in Congress in the 1930s may not have known it, years later some research suggests that the GlassSteagall Act may have caused unintended problems decades later. The reader should note, though, that despite any problems that may have resulted from the GlassSteagall Act, the financial system in the U.S. created by the GlassSteagall Act lasted without a large increase in the number of bank failures until the 1980s.
Jumping ahead, the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act (DIDMCA) of 1980 was passed in an effort to solve problems, some of which could have been caused by the GlassSteagall Act. As Burton and Lombra (2006) point out, with the creation of money market mutual funds, savers with less than $10,000 (who could thus not purchase TBills) were allowed to earn a marketdetermined interest rate not subject to the GlassSteagall interest rate ceilings and yet remain relatively liquid. This resulted in commercial banks and other depository institutions losing deposits. Additionally, some federallychartered banks began to change to state charters to take advantage of (1) lower reserve requirements imposed by state banking authorities and (2) at times less strict regulation. Thus, at least some banks perceived greater profit opportunities with state charters rather than federal charters. Moreover, many depository institutions such as S&Ls were in financial difficulty due in part to bad loans. Thus, DIDMCA began to phase out interest rate ceilings (to help curb the loss of deposits), established uniform and universal reserve requirements (to reduce the incentive for banks to switch charters), and increased asset and liability options for depository institutions (possibly with the hope of increasing profits). This landmark piece of legislation represented the beginning of a period of financial deregulation.
Another critical piece of deregulatory legislation was the GarnSt. Germain Act of 1982. Among other things, this act allowed the issuance of money market deposit accounts and allowed savings and loans associations (S&Ls) to issue junk bonds. Many S&Ls had negative net worth at the time, and legislators opted to allow S&Ls the chance to earn greater profits by taking greater risks with the hope of restoring positive net worth rather than choosing a taxpayer bailout at the time. Around this time, the required minimum percentage of capital on S&Ls balance sheets was also lowered with the same goal. Unfortunately, these strategies failed as S&Ls and other depository institutions later faced even greater losses as S&Ls grew more involved in areas in which they did not have expertise. For more on the S&L crisis, see Burton and Lombra (2006). An important question to ask is “Did the changes in regulation in the early 1980s lead to a predictable, quantifiable change in the number of bank failures?”
As United States bank failures trended upward from ten per year in 1979 and 1980 to more than 200 in 1987 (www.fdic.gov) and even greater numbers in 1988 and 1989, the Basel Accord of 1988, a twelvecountry agreement, created international capital requirements for banks and initiated an era of greater regulation. The capital requirements were greater than those that had been enforced on U.S. banks prior to the accord.
The Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act (FIRREA) of 1989 continued the response to the S&L crisis and the wave of depository institution failures which intensified in the late 1980s. Among the accomplishments of this act, the FIRREA terminated the Federal Home Loan Board (the former regulator of S&Ls) and created the Office of Thrift Supervision to regulate S&Ls. The director of the Office of Thrift Supervision was placed on the FDIC’s board. Another change made by the FIRREA was the dissolving of the Federal Savings and Loans Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) and the creation of the Savings Association Insurance Fund (SAIF). SAIF was given $50 billion and placed under the supervision of the FDIC. This act also restricted commercial real estate loans, terminated junk bond investing, and established stricter capital requirements for S&Ls. Yet another feature of the FIRREA was that the federal government in the U.S. became legally responsible for the solvency of the FDIC for the first time (although Congress may have voluntarily opted for a taxpayer bailout of the FDIC had the FDIC run out of funds prior to the passage of the FIRREA). For more on the FIRREA, see Burton and Lombra (2006).
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The FDIC Improvement Act of 1991 attempted to solve the problem of moral hazard in financial intermediation. In general, according to Burton and Lombra (2006), moral hazard occurs when a borrower uses loan proceeds for a purpose that is riskier than the purpose that the borrower gave to the lender when applying for the loan. Moral hazard in financial intermediation occurs because depository institutions can use deposits for projects with greater risk than they would in the absence of deposit insurance. An unintended consequence of the FDIC is that depositors with insured accounts do not monitor banks’ activities as carefully as they would if there were no deposit insurance.
Assuming that depositors allow depository institutions to engage in greater risk taking due to deposit insurance, the greater risk taking may lead not only to higher profits when borrowers repay loans but also greater numbers of insolvencies when borrowers default. Thus, one of the many provisions of the FDIC Improvement Act was to require higher risk depository institutions to pay larger insurance premia. Additionally, greater restrictions were placed on banks with insufficient capital. Moreover, the FDIC Improvement Act ended the FDIC’s doctrine of “too big to fail” for restoring solvency unless one of two conditions held. “Too big to fail” meant that the FDIC would use the purchase and assumption method, where the FDIC would arrange for another depository institution to buy a troubled institution with the FDIC paying the excess of liabilities over assets. After the FDIC Improvement Act, the FDIC would use the other method of restoring solvency (called the payoff method, where the FDIC would pay depositors up to the insurance limit and then close the institution) unless the purchase and assumption method was less expensive than the payoff method or the failure of an insolvent institution would threaten the entire financial system. Burton and Lombra (2006) offer more extensive coverage of the FDIC Improvement Act of 1991.
An initial step toward deregulation may have been the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act (IBBEA) of 1994 which eliminated most of the restrictions on interstate bank operations established by the McFadden Act. Given that (1) the creation of banking holding companies provided a way around interstate banking restrictions established by the McFadden Act, and (2) a Supreme Court decision in 1985 allowed interstate branching by banks subject to regional banking pacts, the deregulatory effect of the IBBEA was likely not nearly as great as the deregulatory effect of the Financial Modernization Act of 1999 (also known as the GrammLeachBliley Act) or the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. For the purpose of the present study, the main feature of the Financial Modernization Act was the official removal of the GlassSteagall separation of commercial banking from investment banking. (The reader may wish to note that banking holding companies also enabled financial organizations to circumvent some of the GlassSteagall restrictions on the blending of commercial banking and investment banking activities.) For more on the IBBEA of 1994 and the Financial Modernization Act of 1999, see Burton and Lombra (2006). According to 60 Minutes (2009), the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 terminated any federal regulation of derivatives and effectively also terminated any state regulation of derivatives. The segment on 60 Minutes explained how the lack of regulation exacerbated the current financial crisis in the United States when sellers of credit default swaps apparently did not set aside funds to cover potential claims and then claims against the sellers soared because people had purchased credit default swaps to collect funds if homebuyers defaulted on mortgages.
Is it mere coincidence that roughly ten years after the passage of the Financial Modernization Act and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act financial organizations are receiving large sums of bailout funds and greater regulations are being imposed, just as roughly ten years after the DIDMCA and the GarnSt. Germain Act the United States entered the Basel Accord and passed the FIRREA and the FDIC Improvement Act and paid bailout funds? Although the econometric analysis in the next section cannot offer proof, it supports the hypothesis that deregulation could have led to increases in the number of bank defaults in the U.S. in the late 1980s and at the present time.
ECONOMETRIC MODEL Work [for example, Barr, Seiford, and Siems (1994)] has been completed on estimating the probability of one bank failing. However, to the knowledge of the author, not much has been done in terms of forecasting the total number of bank failures. Aside from the issue that insured depository institutions may have vastly different levels of deposits and thus there could be great differences in the liabilities of the FDIC for different institutions failing, assessing the responsibility for changes in the law on the number of bank failures should be of great interest to the FDIC and policymakers as the federal government now must guarantee the solvency of the FDIC since the passage of the FIRREA of 1989.
The sample period begins in 1955 and ends in 2008 based on data availability. The reader can request data on the number of bank failures in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia), also called FAIL in this study, at www2.fdic.gov/hsob/SelectRpt.asp?EntryTyp=30.
Large numbers of bank failures can occur during a financial crisis. According to Burton and Lombra (2006), some factors that can cause a financial crisis (and thus be associated with an increase in defaults on loans made by banks) include a drop in
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Do Changes in Regulation have an Impact on the Number of Bank Failures? price levels when borrowers have fixed interest rate loans, in part because borrowers have to pay back loans in dollars that have more buying power. Lower price levels could also imply lower wages and salaries, which reduce borrowers’ ability to repay loans. Similarly, an increase in interest rates when borrowers have adjustablerate loans can also increase the probability of a financial crisis. Another factor that can lead to a financial crisis would be a decline in asset values as lower asset values would reduce the liquidity that borrowers could generate from selling those assets if they encountered difficulty. The degree of layering of financial claims can make a financial crisis worse. For example, if borrowers default on loans from Bank X, Bank X may be forced into bankruptcy. This could create problems for Bank Y if Bank Y loaned funds to Bank X. This could also create problems for Bank Z if Bank Z loaned funds to Bank Y. Each loan adds an extra layer of financial claims.
I define a dummy variable LAW equal to zero from the beginning of the sample period in 1955 through 1979, from 1989 through 1998, and in 2008. LAW equals one from 1980 through 1988 and from 1999 through 2007. The values set to zero correspond to times when greater regulations were in place. The values set to one refer to years trending toward a more deregulated environment. For example, LAW first takes on a value of one in 1980 with the passage of DIDMCA. It remains equal to one until 1989, the year of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act. LAW again becomes equal to one in 1999 with the passage of the Financial Modernization Act and remains equal to one until 2008, the year of large financial bailouts and calls for greater regulation.
DEBT, or the natural log of total credit market debt from economagic.com, serves as a proxy for the degree of layering of financial claims. Intuitively, the greater is total debt in the economy, the more likely it is that a greater percentage of loans are associated with multiple layers. To convert the quarterly series to an annual series, I use the average of the values from the fourth quarters of each year.
The real interest rate, REAL, is defined as the tenyear constant maturity rate on federal government debt minus the inflation rate. Both the tenyear rate and the inflation rate are expressed as wholenumber percentages. Monthly tenyear interest rate data, found at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2, are converted to annual data by averaging the twelve months of data in each year. Inflation rates are calculated from the CPI for all urban consumers (all items) with monthly CPI data found at bls.gov. The inflation rate for a month is defined as 100 multiplied by the difference between the natural log of the CPI in that month less the natural log of the CPI twelve months ago. Monthly inflation rates are then converted to annual rates by averaging the twelve monthly inflation rates.
The tenyear constant maturity interestrate data are also used to calculate a yield curve, YC, defined as the tenyear rate less the federal funds rate, both expressed as wholenumber percentages. Both of the monthly series for the tenyear interest rate and the federal funds rate are converted to annual interest rates by averaging the twelve monthly rates in each year.
Because each variable likely exhibits a unit root, regressions are run with the variables in first difference form to avoid the spurious regression problem. Thus, the variables in regressions are D_FAIL, D_LAW, D_DEBT, D_REAL, and D_YC (with the letter “D” representing the first difference.) The dependent variable is D_FAIL, the change in the number of bank failures. For parsimony, two lags of each variable except the change in the dummy law variable (D_LAW) are used on the righthandside. I initially use ten lags of D_LAW because the deregulations in the early 1980s and the late 1990s could have had an impact on the number of bank failures with a substantial delay or lag. I also use a constant term because it is often statistically significant at the ten per cent level.
Table 1 below displays the results with two lags of each variable except D_LAW on the righthandside. For that variable, ten lags are used, given that it may take years for changes in regulation to impact annual failures. Note that roughly 80 per cent of the righthandside variables are statistically insignificant at the ten per cent level. Also note that the adjusted Rsquared is relatively low at about 0.25. However, this is not a complete surprise given that the data are differenced.
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TABLE 1
Dependent Variable: D_FAIL LAW Equals One In 1988 Method: Least Squares Included observations: 43 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error tStatistic Prob.
C 78.37990 47.02781 1.666671 0.1086 D_FAIL(1) 0.014597 0.212927 0.068554 0.9459 D_FAIL(2) 0.120935 0.197841 0.611276 0.5468 D_LAW(1) 18.25571 38.83829 0.470044 0.6426 D_LAW(2) 5.133266 46.70246 0.109914 0.9134 D_LAW(3) 86.53216 41.29703 2.095360 0.0469 D_LAW(4) 54.50763 35.46624 1.536888 0.1374 D_LAW(5) 37.34752 37.16423 1.004932 0.3250 D_LAW(6) 2.392378 36.24904 0.065998 0.9479 D_LAW(7) 10.77428 34.35107 0.313652 0.7565 D_LAW(8) 18.27119 33.21362 0.550111 0.5873 D_LAW(9) 93.42871 31.81213 2.936890 0.0072 D_LAW(10) 100.4985 50.70046 1.982202 0.0590 D_DEBT(1) 1038.236 1010.415 1.027535 0.3144 D_DEBT(2) 1854.378 1045.641 1.773437 0.0888 D_REALRT(1) 4.773914 8.192031 0.582751 0.5655 D_REALRT(2) 11.21567 7.806067 1.436788 0.1637 D_YC(1) 13.21855 8.971955 1.473319 0.1537 D_YC(2) 13.89778 7.826396 1.775757 0.0885
Rsquared 0.581278 DurbinWatson stat 1.974348 Adjusted Rsquared 0.267237
When presenting regression results, I employ a less strict level of statistical significance for D_LAW than the other variables due to a strong prior belief that I have about the role of regulation in bank failures and due to changes in the law being the focus of this study. After several iterations of removing variables that are clearly not significant at or near the twenty per cent level for D_LAW and at the ten per cent level for other variables, regression results in Table 2 suggest that except for the tenth lag of D_LAW, the legal variable has a positive impact on the change in failures. That is, all other things equal, a deregulated banking environment leads to an increase in failures with a delay or a lag. For example, a switch toward deregulation nine years ago causes an increase in bank failures of approximately 95 at both the ten per cent and five per cent levels, ceteris paribus. However, note that the tenth lag has a negative coefficient, implying that more deregulation ten years ago causes a decrease in failures ten years later. Also note that the real interest rate variable, the yield curve variable, and lagged changes in the number of failures have been eliminated from regressions because of test statistics and associated probabilities not statistically significant at the ten per cent level. That is, these variables do not appear to predict future numbers of failures after accounting for changes in the law and changes in the debt variable.
I kept the second lagged difference of the debt variable (in natural log form) in the regression because it would be significant at the ten per cent level. Interpreting the results, given that this variable is in natural log form, a one hundred per cent increase in the debt variable leads to an increase in the number of bank failures by about 784 two years later, all other things equal. Alternatively, a one per cent increase in total debt causes approximately 7.8 bank failures with a delay of two years.
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Do Changes in Regulation have an Impact on the Number of Bank Failures?
TABLE 2
Dependent Variable: D_FAIL LAW Equals One In 1988 Method: Least Squares Included observations: 43 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error tStatistic Prob.
C 73.98294 30.66926 2.412284 0.0209 D_LAW(3) 35.51809 28.38485 1.251304 0.2187 D_LAW(4) 44.95213 28.52118 1.576097 0.1235 D_LAW(9) 95.04873 28.85394 3.294134 0.0022 D_LAW(10) 88.24887 34.85255 2.532064 0.0157 D_DEBT(2) 784.0120 333.8185 2.348618 0.0243
Rsquared 0.448857 DurbinWatson stat 2.089842 Adjusted Rsquared 0.374378
In Table 3, I present regression results insisting that lagged variables be significant at the fifteen per cent level for D_LAW and at the ten per cent level for the other variables and the constant term. Thus, I eliminated the third lag of D_LAW. The results are qualitatively similar to those in Table 3 in that a change toward a deregulated environment tends to lead to more bank failures with a lag, except for the tenth lag of D_LAW.
The negative estimated coefficient on the tenth lag of D_LAW following mainly positive estimated coefficients on earlier lags may indicate an estimated length of financial crises. For example, a more deregulated environment may produce an increase in failures within three or four years. Given that the dependent variable is in first difference form, the estimated change in failures could last around that level but then jump to a higher level after nine years. Finally, in the tenth year, failures begin to subside. This matches to some extent empirical observations. Roughly 9.000 banks failed in the U.S. from 1930 through 1933, a span of five years (Mishkin 2004). After the creation of the FDIC, another surge occurred from 19351942, but this surge was much smaller, with no more than 75 failures per year during that period (www.fdic.gov). Yet another wave of failures lasted approximately from 1982 through 1993 (www.fdic.gov). It appears that another wave of failures has already begun at the end of the sample period. Although the first two waves of failures in the 1930s and 1940s occurred before the beginning of the sample period, I mention them at this point to give an estimate of the duration of the waves of bank failures in recent U.S. history. The shortest wave discussed above lasted four years, while the longest wave lasted twelve years. Hence, the negative estimated coefficient on the tenth lagged value of D_LAW could indicate approximately when a surge in bank failures would end following deregulatory legislation, and the estimated positive coefficient on the fourth lag could estimate the beginning of a wave of failures.
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TABLE 3
Dependent Variable: D_FAIL LAW Equals One In 1988 Method: Least Squares Included observations: 43 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error tStatistic Prob.
C 75.12009 30.88316 2.432397 0.0198 D_LAW(4) 44.46300 28.73001 1.547615 0.1300 D_LAW(9) 94.41155 29.06341 3.248468 0.0024 D_LAW(10) 88.53862 35.11027 2.521730 0.0160 D_DEBT(2) 806.1769 335.8205 2.400618 0.0214
Rsquared 0.425534 DurbinWatson stat 1.996273 Adjusted Rsquared 0.365064
A note of caution is in order in that the decision of when to change the regulation dummy variable back to zero could influence the results. The regressions presented in Tables 1 through 3 assume that LAW changes back to zero in 1989 with the passage of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA). The results are somewhat different if the change in LAW is made in 1988, coinciding with the Basel Accord. Table 4 displays results using a similar lag elimination procedure to the one used in generating Tables 1 through 3 but LAW is set back to zero in 1988 rather than 1989. Notice that the first lagged difference of the law variable is statistically significant, and the estimated coefficient is negative. This implies that a change toward deregulation is followed by a decrease in the number of bank failures in the next year. This regression may be capturing statistical correlation or reverse causality in the sample period. Congress passed deregulatory legislation when bank failures were relatively low in the early 1980s before the S&L crisis reached its peak and again in the late 1990s when the number of failures was relatively low. Low or rapidly declining numbers of annual bank failures could foster a political environment conducive to passing deregulatory legislation.
Another important difference is that the variable for the second lagged difference in real interest rates is significant at the ten per cent level (and fairly close to significant at the five per cent level). Unlike the prediction made above, higher real interest rates are followed by a decrease in failures rather than an increase. Certainly, higher ex post real interest rates on loans would allow banks to earn greater profits as long as the higher interest rates do not lead to greater defaults. The variable D_DEBT in the regressions may already capture the impact of an increase in the probability of borrowers defaulting. Thus, an increase in D_REALRT may show the impact of a greater “profit margin” from bank loans on the number of bank failures.
Overall, the balance of the evidence suggests, with a few caveats, that greater deregulation tends to be associated with more failures in the future. The results may be sensitive to the specification of the model. Including data from a stock market index or an estimate of average home values to see if decreased asset values lead to more failures could possibly lead to different conclusions about the impact of changes in regulation on future bank failures. Uncertainty about which variable (or both) to use precludes their use in the present study. To the extent that home values and stock market index values are correlated with output in the economy, real GDP could serve as a proxy. Given that the decision of whether to change the dummy variable from one back to zero in 1988 (the year of the Basel Accord) or in 1989 (the year of the FIRREA) has at least a slight impact on the results (where the case of deregulation leading to bank failures may be clearer if LAW equals one in 1988); the inclusion of home values, stock prices, or real GDP could impact the results. Additionally, given the need to use annual data as dictated by the frequency of bank failure data, the relatively small sample size could influence the results.
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Do Changes in Regulation have an Impact on the Number of Bank Failures?
TABLE 4
Dependent Variable: D_FAIL LAW Equals Zero In 1988 Method: Least Squares Included observations: 43 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error tStatistic Prob.
C 72.92266 27.46275 2.655330 0.0120 D_LAW(1) 82.78536 26.17737 3.162479 0.0033 D_LAW(3) 61.54379 25.96473 2.370284 0.0236 D_LAW(4) 37.79819 25.11376 1.505079 0.1415 D_LAW(5) 47.80838 25.53445 1.872309 0.0698 D_LAW(9) 76.50927 26.14713 2.926106 0.0061 D_LAW(10) 82.77181 29.80115 2.777471 0.0089 D_DEBT(1) 774.3332 300.3244 2.578323 0.0144 D_REALRT(2) 9.088951 4.790309 1.897362 0.0663
Rsquared 0.627791 DurbinWatson stat 2.012969 Adjusted Rsquared 0.540213
CONCLUSION After reviewing some major changes in the law, I present econometric results regarding the relationship between deregulation and the number of bank failures. Findings tend to support the hypothesis that deregulatory changes have led to increases in the number of bank failures. Future work could add average home prices, stock market index values, or real GDP to the analysis. It could also develop a theoretical model of the number bank failures per year based on the information presented here. Given that the goal of financial regulation is ostensibly to allow financial organizations to earn profits while trying to prevent financial crises, future work could also analyze which changes in regulation were least responsible for spurring financial crises and may have actually helped to avoid crises. It could also analyze which changes in regulation were most detrimental to the financial system and the overall economy and further study the reasons for the damage in an effort to avoid similar problems in the future. Future econometric work may acknowledge that structural changes could have impacted the economy over the sample period, thus altering the size of the impact of changes in the law and changes in the other variables on the number of bank failures. Thus, future regressions may divide the sample period into multiple parts for hypothesis testing.
REFERENCES Barr, R.S., Seiford, L.M. and Siems, T.F. (1994) Forecasting Bank Failure: A NonParametric Frontier Estimation Approach, Recherches Economiques de Louvain, 60(4), pp. 41729. Burton, M. and Lombra, R. (2006) The Financial System and the Economy: Principles of Money and Banking, Mason, OH: Thomson Southwestern, pp. 231, 237, 2467, 258, 2839, 2924, 307, 31021. Mishkin, F. (2004) The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets. Boston, Pearson Addison Wesley, pp. 231, 2701. 60 Minutes (2009) broadcast August 30, Available online at www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/26/60minutes/main4546199.shtml?tag=contentMain;contentBody
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J. Villacís González Volume 7 – Fall 2009
AN UNPUBLISHED LETTER OF KEYNES AND ITS RELEVANCE FOR MACROECONOMICS: CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM B22
José Villacís González University San PabloCEU, Spain
ABSTRACT In 1934 a young Spanish economist, Lucas Beltrán Flóres, wrote a long letter to John Maynard Keynes, receiving a brief letter in reply. Given that it would be a further two years before the Keynes’s General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money appeared, this hitherto unpublished letter is of considerable interest, as it gives various hints as to the scientific and even psychological condition of the two researchers at that very interesting point in time. As the correspondence shows, dogmatic approaches to full employment and macroeconomic equilibrium were beginning to give ground to a new more flexible and, some would say, intrepid approach which would later lay the basis of modern macroeconomics and its essentially monetarist basis. In his reply to Beltrán’s missive Keynes talks of the Spanish and Indian currencies, which despite not being tied to gold had not suffered major depreciation. This reaffirmed him in his belief that, well managed, a fiduciary currency, floating freely against the price of gold, was not condemned to losing its value. More than this, he says that in a work which he hoped would see the light of day within a year’s time, he wanted to explain a fundamental theory that would follow a line somewhat different from that expounded in his previous A Treatise on Money. At bottom, he adds, the essential ideas are the same. The work he was referring to is the General Theory …. Keynes foresees that on the whole there would be considerable resistance to these new ideas but he is convinced that in time both public and academic opinion would come round to the new approach.
Keywords: Devaluation, General Theory, Deterioration, Profit Inflation, New Approach.
INTRODUCTION This brief commentary is set up as follows: first, the two letters, the initial letter from Lucas Beltrán in November 1934 and Keynes’s reply in the same month. The second part discusses the conventional approach to macroeconomics prior to 1934. The third part looks at the progress then being made on the book Keynes mentions and which appeared in 1936.
The essay sticks closely to the facts, i.e. the objective information provided in the letters and the relation between the two letters and the state of economic thought at that time, particularly in relation to the ideas of Keynes. When Beltrán wrote to Keynes, economic theory was poised on the edge of macroeconomics, a branch of the science of which Keynes was the precursor with his three previous works: Indian Currency and Finance, A Tract on Monetary Reform, and A Treatise on Money. Thus the correspondence reproduced here touches on the scientific backdrop, referred to quite extensively by Beltrán, and underlines the new thinking which Keynes was working on and which would see the light of day in the General Theory ....
It should be noted that when Beltrán wrote to Keynes, there were no faculties of economics in Spain. He addressed his comments to Keynes in the latter’s role as a professional economist of international fame and prestige in both the academic world and in political arena. Beltrán knew Keynes’s work well.
From these two letters, the longish letter from Beltrán and the shorter reply from Keynes, it is possible to glean an idea of what Keynes was thinking at the time. Oddly enough, this is easier to grasp from Beltrán’s letter than from that of Keynes himself. As Beltrán presents his breakdown of the key features of the Spanish economy of the day, he cites the thinking of Keynes, with which Beltrán is a closely in agreement. “I have become a convinced follower of your theories,” he says at the outset of his letter.
In his reply Keynes says that he has embarked on a line of research which is “rather different” from that which Beltrán has read. In actual fact, the differences are more apparent than real, because A Treatise on Money, at that time Keynes’ most recent book, published in 1930, sets the scene and identifies the key factors of what would be the major opus, the General Theory …
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An Unpublished Letter of Keynes and its Relevance for Macroeconomics: Classification System B22
BIOGRAPHICAL AND ACADEMIC BACKGROUND OF LUCAS BELTRÁN. Lucas Beltrán Flórez was born in Alcanar in the province of Tarragona in 1911. Until the mid 1940s no Spanish university boasted a faculty of economics so to pursue his studies Beltrán had to travel. He went to England where he became a student and researcher at the London School of Economics, a crucial experience which explains his familiarity with the ideological and scientific thought of the day.
One of Beltrán’s great merits was his ability, thanks to his scientific training, to separate the ideological and normative aspects of economic research – in the case of the UK mainly liberal in orientation – from the practical workings of a macroeconomic structure. This ability made him particularly responsive to the conceptual structure that Keynes was trying to erect.
After Keynes, the situation changed. Outandout liberals held firm to their belief in free enterprise, while interventionists, of broadly Keynesian convictions, were sceptical of progress driven by market forces alone. In time Beltrán, too, stuck out for the liberal standpoint he had taken to as a youth though, like Keynes, in the special circumstances of the Great Depression he, too, favoured the intervention of the State. The exchange of letters documented in this article took place in 1934, i.e. before the appearance of the General Theory … meaning that we can safely say that the Spanish researcher acted on all occasions in accordance with scientific principles as opposed to political motives.
At the level of research the communication between the London School of Economics, Beltrán’s place of learning, and Cambridge, where Keynes taught, was very fluid, to the point where one could almost call them sister organisations, although there were, it is true, certain ideological differences. Coming from this background it is easy to see how Beltrán received his academic training and how attractive he found the objective truths revealed by Keynes.
BELTRÁN’S LETTER TO KEYNES November 17th, 1934
Mr. John Maynard Keynes King’s College Cambridge
Dear Sir, For several years I have been studying your works and I have become a convinced follower of your theories. Now I am working on a paper on the application of these theories to Spanish modern economic history and to the present Spanish economic situation. This paper will be my thesis for the degree of Doctor in Law, and will be published by the “Institut d’Investigacions Econòmiques” (“Institute for Economic Research”) of this town [Barcelona] I dare to write to you to explain very briefly my views of the question. I should be extremely thankful if you were kind enough to read them and to give me your advice. If you needed any additional information, I should be very glad to send it to you. The Spanish modern monetary history affords a good example of the functioning of a purely national standard during a long tract of time. After its creation in 1868, the peseta remained an international standard only until 1881. At this date it began to depreciate and has been since then fluctuating, and more often than not depreciating. That has been considered, by the Spanish economists, as a misfortune, while through the application of your theories, I see it, on the whole, as beneficial. Our purely national and fluctuating standard has allowed our prices to follow very often a different course from that of the world prices. We have had a course of prices of our own. This course has been, until the end of the Great War, almost always upwards. Consequently Spain has lived from 1868 to 1922 in a state of chronic Profit Inflation. This Inflation was rather mild before the War, and very violent during the war and the postwar time. Has that been beneficial? On the whole, I believe it has. In 1868 Spain was a country very poor in fixed capital, and it has been therefore worthwhile to sacrifice a part of current consumption for the improvement of investment. Thanks to this Profit Inflation, Spain has been able to modernize her industrial and her agricultural equipment, and to purchase many Spanish and foreign securities which belonged to foreigners. That is to say, she has increased both her Home Investment and her Foreign Investment. The years from 1868 to 1914 may be divided into two periods, 1898 being the end of the first. During this first period Profit Inflation was caused by the increase in the quantity of money. This increase was created by the Governments to cover their budget deficits, and took the form of silver coins (with a nominal value greater than their intrinsic value) and of banknotes (issued through the Bank of Spain). Prices rose and the peseta depreciated. Unfortunately we cannot measure the rise of prices prior to 1890 because there are no index numbers before this date. (The lack of past statistical data and the unreliability of the existent is a great obstacle to every economic study about Spain). From 1890 there is a rough index number based on the wholesale prices of seventeen commodities. This index number shows a fairly steady rise from 1890 to 1898. There is every reason to believe that this rise had been going on many years before 1890.
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The Spanish and foreign economists who have studied this period have agreed to condemn and bewail the financial policy of the Governments. They are right from their point of view, as they considered the preservation of an international standard at a fixed parity as the necessary aim of any monetary policy. But the application of the theories of your “Treatise on Money” tells us that this policy did much more good than harm. Thanks to it we had a Profit Inflation instead of the Profit Deflation we should have experienced if our currency had been linked to gold, as world gold prices fell from 1873 to 1895. In 1898 we had the war with the U.S.A. The heavy note issues (always through the Bank of Spain) and the financial panic drove the peseta to a very low level. This provoked a reaction on the part of our authorities and, after the War, a new period began characterized by financial “virtue”. The Governments wanted to raise the exchange value of the peseta, and with this aim, they reduced the fiduciary issue through the reduction of their indebtedness towards the Bank of Spain. Fortunately this policy was not carried as far as its supporters wished. At the same time there was a repatriation of capital owned by Spaniards formerly living in the lost Colonies and now coming home. Consequently the total note issue diminished slightly in the first years of the century, but later on increased till 1914. The increased quantity of money enabled our prices to rise but moderately. As the world gold prices were rising more steeply than ours, this difference occasioned an improvement of our exchanges. Our purely national standard rendered our Profit Inflation, during this period, less violent than that developing in the outside world. During the war and the postwar years (19141920), Spain experienced an acute Profit Inflation. The needs of the belligerent countries and the rise of prices in them determined a big increase of our Foreign Balance. That is to say, our Foreign Investment, and therefore our Total Investment, increased much. The volume of Savings did not certainly rise as much. We had then a Profit Inflation caused by a boom in Foreign Investment. This Profit Inflation needed an increased quantity of money, and our Banking authorities agreed to supply it; the Bank of Spain (with the Government’s permission) increased several times the legal maximum of the note issue. The fundamental difference between the Profit Inflation of the years 18681914 and that of the years 19141920 lies in the fact that in the former the initial impulse was “on the side of money”, while in the latter it was “on the side of investment”. In 1921 prices fell heavily. The world normalisation reduced our Foreign Investment, and we had a short Profit Deflation. After that, until the beginning of the present world slump, prices and exchanges suffered fluctuations attributable to different influences, but in 1929 they were more or less at the same level as in 1922. The industrial and trade situations during these years were fairly normal. When in 1929 the fall in the world prices began, the peseta began to depreciate at approximately the same pace, with the happy result of preserving relative stability of our internal prices and the normality of our industrial life. We were doing unconsciously (rather against our will, as the fall of the peseta was then considered a misfortune) what you recommend to do in the Chapter 21 of your “Treatise on Money”. That lasted until 1932.At this date the peseta exchange ceased to follow the direction of the world prices. It rose and occasioned a fall of the internal prices. Then the effects of the depression began to be felt in Spain. Turning to the normative side of the question, I should propose as remedies to get over the present depression, some measures tending to raise the price level. These are: the lowering of the bank rate which now stands as high as 5.5 per cent; a monetary policy tending to lower the exchange of the peseta if world prices fall any further; open market operations to expand the volume of circulating money; and a programme of Public Works to be carried by the Government. As a permanent policy when the depression will be over, I should propose the stabilisation of our prices. If England or any other leading financial country should adopt such a policy, we could link our currency to hers, as you suggest in your “Tract on Monetary Reform”. If no country attempted to stabilize her prices, Spain ought to carry out this policy by herself, through the methods you propose. But previously it would be necessary to make some reforms in our monetary and banking systems. Silver should be demonetized and the peseta should be no longer a bimetallic standard. And the Statute of the Bank of Spain ought to be reformed in order to charge our Bank of issue with all the duties of a Central Bank. I must recognize than none of the measures I propose are likely to be put into practice, given the state of the Spanish monetary opinion. However, I deem it useful to propose and to defend them.
Yours sincerely Lluc Beltrán
My address: Lluc Beltrán Institut d´Investigacions EconòmiquesLaietana, 18Barcelona (Spain)
COMMENTARY ON BELTRÁN’S LETTER. It is important to situate the letter from Beltrán and Keynes’s reply, both written in 1934, as reflecting the state of economic thinking before the appearance of Keynes’s General Theory … in 1936. Beltrán had studied in England, a country which was as familiar with Keynes’s previous work as any other. Moreover, Beltrán says that his thesis is primarily an application of Keynes’s theories to the Spanish economy. In A Tract on Monetary Reform Keynes had begun to break away from the mechanics of a purely quantitative approach, preferring monetary intervention designed to achieve price stability on one hand and increased competition on the other. Beltrán’s work focused on the Spanish currency, the peseta, and how it had
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An Unpublished Letter of Keynes and its Relevance for Macroeconomics: Classification System B22 performed in the period since its adoption in 1868 to 1881. Subsequently its value had fluctuated significantly, depreciating more often than not. Beltrán, following Keynes’s ideas, says that he saw this depreciation as an advantage.
Beltrán says that in the open market there had been an increase in prices that had led to profit inflation, and that this allowed the Spanish economy to modernise in the period from 1868 to 1922. Modernisation had manifested itself in an increase in fixed capital and the acquisition of foreign securities. On this last point, we see confirmation of the benefits accruing from opening up an economy to the outside world, benefits that Keynes had underlined in 1923 in the third chapter of A Tract on Monetary Reform and had gone on to connect with investment and domestic and international interest rates in A Treatise on Money. Spanish governments had funded their budget deficits by printing money, a practice that led to inflation and the rapid devaluation of the peseta. Beltrán says that in consequence Spain suffered profit inflation as opposed to the profit deflation that would have occurred if the peseta had been tied to the price of gold, given that the price of gold declined in the period between 1873 and 1895. This argument is a combination of the ideas of Keynes and Hume.
He then goes on to refer to the exchange rate, specifically to revaluation, when he explains that the war between Spain and the United States obliged the Bank of Spain to print banknotes in order to finance its budget deficit and that the financial panic that arose as a result produced a massive devaluation of the peseta. Faced with this, the Spanish authorities tried to reduce the fiduciary issue of money in the hope of encouraging the peseta to revalue. He says clearly that, fortunately, this attempt was not taken to the extremes originally proposed, a stance that fits in with Keynes’s ideas on the role of money in world trade and its performance in generating rents. These ideas Keynes had formulated almost four years previously in A Treatise on Money.
The explanations Beltrán gives in the following lines are of extraordinary interest because they clearly reflect the arguments of Keynes, to such an extent, in fact, that they could quite easily have been stated by the English economist himself. Beltrán refers to the marked profit inflation occurring in Spain between 1914 and 1920, from which Spain obtained a significant advantage in its balance of payments, combined with an increase in prices, as a result of supplying the needs of the belligerents in the Great War, as a consequence of which the country was able to increase its foreign investment and, with it, its overall fixed investment. Despite this, the level of savings did not rise in synchrony. The argument that, to our mind, is typically Keynesian is when Beltrán says that there is a difference between the two periods of profit inflation, that between 1868 and 1914, and that between 1914 and 1920. The difference, says Beltrán, “lies in the fact that in the former the initial impulse was ‘on the side of money’, while in the latter it was ‘on the side of investment’.”
When world prices began to fall in 1929 the peseta fell with them and a certain price stability set in. That was the year of the start of the Great Depression, but in Spain up until 1932 prices remained relatively stable and the exchange rate fell. In this downturn in the exchange rate, says Beltrán, we (Spaniards) did “what you recommend to do in the Chapter 21 of your ‘Treatise on Money’”. Subsequently, domestic prices began to fall, too, and Spain began to suffer the effects of the worldwide slump.
This proposal of how to cope with a major depression is startling, as it goes to the very heart of Keynesian economics, which Keynes had already formulated to some extent but would go on to develop fully and clearly two years later in 1936 with the publication of his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. What Beltrán is saying in this letter of November 1934 is as follows. First, you reduce the bank rate. Next, you adopt a monetary policy designed to depress the exchangerate of the peseta. At the same time you undertake openmarket operations designed to expand the volume of money in circulation. Up to this point Beltrán is giving a list of measures typical of monetary policy. He then lists quite openly fiscal measures such as beginning a public works programme financed by government. At this stage there cannot be the slightest doubt that Lucas Beltrán is totally convinced of the merits of the Keynesian concept of economic theory and politics. Consequently, this letter is a faithful reflection of the state of economic thought at that time.
Lastly, Beltrán proposes government intervention in the monetary system to stabilise prices in Spain, measures that will require a reform of the system. Silver should be abandoned as the monetary benchmark and the peseta should cease to be bimetallic standard. In addition, the statutes governing the Bank of Spain should be amended to ensure it functions as a central bank. Beltrán ends the letter proposing a monetary authority to exercise monetary policy. These are all ideas, techniques, policies and schemes that we find in the books of J.M. Keynes written before 1936, the year of publication of the General Theory ....
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KEYNES’S REPLY TO BELTRÁN 46 Gordon Square Bloomsbury
Señor Lluc Beltrán November 29, 1934 Institut d´Investigacions Economiques Laietana, 18 Barcelona, Spain
Dear Señor Beltrán,
I am much obliged to you for [your] most interesting letter of the 17th November. I think it very likely that the theory of mine to which you refer would find an excellent application and illustration in the Nineteenth Century History of the Spanish Currency; very much on the same lines as the application which I myself made very briefly to the case of the Indian currency. Both Spain and India offer examples of currencies which, on one hand, were not tied to gold, yet, on the other hand, were never seriously debauched, as in the case of the South American currencies.
I find nothing which I am competent to criticise in the outlines of your argument which you give me in your letter. I would, however, mention that in a work of mine which will probably come out in about a year´s time I deal with the underlying theory on what, at any rate on the surface, would appear to be lines rather different from those adopted in my Treatise on Money. Under the surface, however, the essential ideas are the same.
I expect you are right in anticipating considerable resistance to ideas of this order in your country. It naturally takes a few years for both public and academic opinion to accustom itself to a new line of approach. But once a beginning is made, it is remarkable how rapidly opinion in these matters is capable of changing. The explanation doubtless is that conventional views on these matters, though tenaciously held, are really rooted in very little.
Very truly yours. JMKeynes
COMMENTARY ON KEYNES’S LETTER. Keynes included with his reply a copy of his work of 1913, when he was 30 years old: Indian Currency and Finance, which he sees as having significant parallels with the Spanish currency in the 19th century. The parallel lies in a currency that was not tied to the gold standard but whose supply was managed in such a way as to maintain a balance with gold. Though neither the Indian nor the Spanish currency was a slave to gold, the currency was never “seriously debauched”. This is significant, as we shall see below. Firstly, because the supply of a fiduciary currency is capable of being managed perfectly well. Secondly, by not being tied to gold, the currency can be used as a tool to facilitate buying or selling, or what we today would call aggregate demand, and for funding investment.
Keynes says there is nothing in Beltrán’s arguments that he is competent to criticise but does not elaborate on what those arguments are. However, this negation of competence is belied to a certain extent by his comment on a forthcoming work, due to be published about a year hence. Says Keynes (my italics): “I would, however, mention that in a work of mine which will probably come out in about a year´s time I deal with the underlying theory on what, at any rate on the surface, would appear to be lines rather different from those adopted in my Treatise on Money. Under the surface, however, the essential ideas are the same.”
Keynes adds a philosophical comment on ideas seen on a temporal plane and from the standpoint of method, i.e. that ideas, though correct, take time to establish themselves but once they do, public and academic opinion are quick to follow suit. Here we have one of Keynes’s real strengths, his ability to match the demands of science with the skills required of a public servant. Keynes was a man endowed with considerable flexibility and practical sense.
In 1934 when Keynes wrote this letter to Beltrán, the GDP of the United States had fallen in real terms by nearly 25%, unemployment was rife and the waves of depression had extended to Europe, including Britain. Keynes was obliged when completing his book to not only describe the nature and physiology of the economic phenomenon but also to come up with solutions. This is part and parcel of Keynes’s nature: his ability to construct a theory out of the need to solve real problems arising out of the structure of a scientific artefact.
Keynes appears perfectly confident that his work, the General Theory … will make headway, slowly at first, but at increasing speed until recognised both by scientists and by the man in the street. And he was quite right. His new book, which was
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An Unpublished Letter of Keynes and its Relevance for Macroeconomics: Classification System B22 complex, novel, unorthodox, was literally devoured by the universities, while politicians and businessmen also tried to grapple with it. From reading these two letters we can recapture some of the importance of the publication of that book, then germinating in Keynes’s mind. As Keynes says, his A Treatise on Money had already made some inroads on a purely rentist theory: the generation of rents, spending on consumption and on investment, on the merely monetary aspect of preferences on holding money, the anticipated profits of capital, etc. He was obviously immersed in attending the birth of the model for determining rent contained in the General Theory ….
The fields that management of the money supply can act on are those of generating and modifying rents, as is shown by Beltrán who, at the end of his letter, proposes that interest rates should be reduced and public works used as a substitute for the resulting decline in private investment. This is the key to the question: the alchemy by which money transmutes into rent and production, as Beltrán proposes by adopting monetary and fiscal policies to achieve this. If Beltrán is capable of imagining these modern and unorthodox remedies, it is because he has read Keynes. He makes no bones about it: For several years I have been studying your works and I have become a convinced follower of your theories.
CONCLUSION The contents of this essay comprise the correspondence of a young Spanish economist who had read Keynes in the course of his studies in England. The letters were written in 1934, two years before the appearance of Keynes’s General Theory… but some years after publication of Indian Currency and Finance (1913), A Tract on Monetary Reform (1923) and A Treatise on Money (1930). Beltrán’s letter is a development of Keynes’s ideas, with which he is perfectly familiar and which he applies to the Spanish economy.
Keynes’s reply is short and, in appearance, general. What is very interesting, however, is to see how Keynes’s ideas had been so completely absorbed by Beltrán, whose understanding and approval of them is demonstrated by his proposals for abandoning a fixed exchange rate tied to gold, the benefits to be obtained from devaluing the currency, his belief in the advantages to be derived from profit inflation compared with deflation and his support for active monetary and fiscal policies, all given with quotations and references.
Seen in this light, Keynes’s reply, though apparently general, can be clearly understood when he says that he is thinking about a new publication on lines of thought rather different from those of A Treatise on Money but, in fact, the same ideas extended to new fields: the formation of rent, the preference for money in its multiple manifestations, the origin of interest, the effectiveness of investment, and the importance of government spending.
REFERENCE The above statement refers exclusively to the contents contained in this article based on the letter of Keynes Indian Currency and Finance. Londres; McMillan and Co.,Ltd.,1913. The Economic Consecuences of the Peace; Nueva York; Harcourt Brace and Howe, 1920. A Revision of the Teatry; Nueva York;Harcourt Brace and Co.,1922 The Economic Consequences of Sterlyng Parity; New York; Harcourt, Brace and Co.,1925. The Means to Properity, Nueva York; Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1933. Monetary Reform. Nueva York; Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1924. Can Lloyd George Do it? An Examination of the Liberal Pledge. Londres, The Nation and the Atheneaeum, 1929. A Treatise on Money, Nueva York; Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1930. Essay in Persuasion, Nueva York; Harcourt, Brace and Co. 1932. The Economic Consequences of Sterlyng Parity; New York; Harcourt, Brace and Co.,1925.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR José Villacís González, member of the American Economic Association, lecturer in macroeconomics of the University CEU San Pablo, Paseo Juan XXIII, 6, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
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APPENDIX Author Certification of Originality
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An Unpublished Letter of Keynes and its Relevance for Macroeconomics: Classification System B22
Copy of Beltrán’s Original Letter to Keynes
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An Unpublished Letter of Keynes and its Relevance for Macroeconomics: Classification System B22
Copy of Keynes’s Original Reply to Beltrán
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W. Cheng Volume 7 – Fall 2009
TEN BIG EMERGING MARKETS AND THE SMALL FIRM EFFECTS
William Cheng Troy University/Global Campus, USA
INTRODUCTION Emerging markets have outperformed US stock market during the 1990's. The high performance and the increasing availability of information have led to an increased interest by both academics and practitioners. Divecha, et. al. (1992) present statistical evidence of performance and risk, and discuss the portfolio implications of investing part of your funds in emerging markets.
My analysis will concentrate on the performance of the ten big emerging markets2, as identified by the Department of Commerce (DOC) under Clinton Administration. These markets are Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey [See Business America (1995)].
There are logical reasons that a pattern observed in developed markets will also appear in emerging markets; however, the logical converse is also possible. There may be an ‘internationalization of markets’ consistent with technological advances, the ease of capital flows across borders, and improved information resources. Certainly for major markets, capital flows freely from one market to another with ease, so called hot money. Emerging markets, on the other hand, often place restrictions on capital flows, have their own rules of taxation that may discriminate against or discourage foreign investors, and in some cases discriminate between domestic and foreign investors through classes of shares3. These individual country factors may cause differences between patterns observed in developed markets versus those of developing or emerging markets. Further, there seems to be a behavioral pattern that may affect pricing and the risk/return tradeoff we have come to expect in developed markets. Investing in stocks is viewed as more akin to gambling than to investing by domestic investors in some emerging markets. Traditional patterns of saving involve placing money in an account similar to a savings account, coupled with an attitude of frugality as a means to accumulate wealth. If investors treat the stock market as a gambling arena, the link between risk and return may be broken. Lack of liquidity would then prevent arbitrage trading from reestablishing the link.
Table 1: Selected Market Indices of the Ten Big Emerging Markets and the DJIA and SPX indices for the US Country Index Ticker Argentina The Argentina Stock Market General Index ARSMGNRL Brazil The Brazilian Stock Markets ISenn Index BZSMIBSN China The China CLSA Index B CLSACHB India The Bombay Sensitivity Index BSI Indonesia The Jakarta Composite Index JCI Mexico The Mexico Bolsa Index MEXBOL Poland The Warsaw Stock Exchange Equity Index PWSMWIG South Africa The Johannesburg All Market Index JOHMKT South Korea The Korea Composite Index KOSPI Turkey The Turkey Stock Market Indices Composite TKSMCOMP U.S. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA U.S. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index SPX Source: Bloomberg
2 Divecha, et. al. define emerging markets as follows. They define an emerging market as one which (1) has securities that trade in a public market, (2) is not a developed market, (3) is of interest to global institutional investors, and (4) has a reliable source of data. 3 China and Indonesia provide examples of domestic versus foreigner discrimination. China issues B shares to foreign investors. Indonesia does not allow greater than 49% foreign ownership. When ownership reaches 49% they begin to issue foreign shares.
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TEN BIG EMERGING MARKETS: SOURCES OF DATA The Department of Commerce (DOC) under Clinton Administration has identified ten emerging powers having highest growth potential in next decade. Table 1 lists these ten big emerging markets and selected market indices, as well as the DJIA and SPX4 indices for US market. These selected indices are used to compare the market performance of emerging markets in the 1990s.
Data and analysis are obtained through Bloomberg's 20,000 international company universe. Bloomberg provides 24hour, instant and current financial, economic and political information covering markets around the globe. It also provides analytics, historical data, uptominute news reports, economic statistics and political commentaries. Constant upgrades and enhancements of the system are some of the most valuable attributes of the Bloomberg service.
TEN BIG EMERGING MARKETS: PERFORMANCE Table 2 shows the total returns over the entire period 19901996, as well as the annualized returns, for selected indices carried on the Bloomberg in the ten biggest emerging markets (BEMs). Without considering inflation risk and exchange rate risk, Brazil ranked number one, with the highest return, out of the big ten BEMs for both total return and annualized return. Indonesia and China ranked 9 and 10, with negative returns in the 1990s of 1.5% and 20.2%, respectively.
Table 3 shows the annual returns of the selected ten big emerging market (BEMs) indices between 1990 and 1995. The data indicates that equity prices of the emerging markets are much more volatile than those of much matured markets such as the United States. Argentina's stock index experienced two years of 450% growth in 1990 and 1991, and then crashed to a negative 31% return in 1992. Poland's Warsaw Stock Market Index provides another example of roller coaster pricing in emerging markets. In 1993, Poland's market had an exceptional fourteen thousand percent increase, followed by a negative sixtyfour percent drop, and then a bounce back to positive in 1995. Appendix B1 shows graphs demonstrating the price volatility of these indices. A visual comparison of the price charts for BEMs versus the 2 US indices shows substantially greater volatility for the BEMs, except for South Africa. Most markets exhibit impressive total returns during the 1990 to 1996 period; but these high returns are accompanied by high volatility.
Six developing countries were selected, which include Brazil, China, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey. I then rank all firms from each six counties into quintiles by size. Table 4 shows some attributes of the formed portfolios from each country. The number of firms (securities) in each country portfolio, the average P/E ratio, the average beta, the average dividend yield, the average market capitalization, and the average twelfth month returns are reported. Table 5 shows some basic attributed of each portfolio ranked by market capitalization. First, we observed that the major firms in emerging markets have a market value (size) ranging between $10 million and $500 million. Second, there appears to be no relation between size and beta in some of the markets (for example, Turkey and Indonesia). Some markets show an inverse relation between beta and size (for example, South Africa). Third, only in South Africa does the portfolio of the small firms outperform the larger firms in total return. While both Indonesia and Brazil markets show some reversal of the size effect, the larger firms have better return than the smaller counterparts. Finally, we combine all firms in six markets into a portfolio and ranked them by size. All above three observations hold as shown in table 5G.
4 The DJIA is the DOW Jones Industrial Average, an index of 30 of the largest US firms. The SPX is the Standard and Poors 500 index, an value weighted index of 500 large firms.
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Table 2: Nominal Returns for 1990 to 1996 in the Ten Big Emerging Markets Total Return Annualized Number of Country Index Period (19901996) Equivalent Rank (Months) (%) Return (%) Argentina ARSMGNRL 4/903/96 71 710.6 42.4 4 Brazil BZSMIBSN 9/913/96 54 222,000 454.5 1 China CLSACHB 6/923/96 45 57.0 20.2 10 India BSI 4/903/96 71 323.4 27.6 6 Indonesia JCI 4/903/96 71 8.3 1.5 9 Mexico MEXBOL 4/903/96 71 404.5 34.85 5 Poland PWSMWIG 4/913/96 59 1103.3 65.8 3 South Africa JOHMKT 4/903/96 71 122.6 14.5 7 South Korea KOSPI 4/903/96 71 25.9 4.0 8 Turkey TKSMCOMP 2/923/96 49 1727.7 103.7 2 U.S. DJIA 4/903/96 71 110.3 13.4 U.S. SPX 4/903/96 71 95.1 11.9 Source: Bloomberg
Table 3: Annual Returns in the Ten Big Emerging Markets (19901995) Country Ticker 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Argentina ARSMGNRL 450.6 498.5 30.9 58.1 34.3 8.9 Brazil BZSMIBSN n/a 154.8 616.7 9068.9 489.7 18.6 China CLSACHB n/a n/a 20.6 8.4 33.9 9.6 India BSI 43.7 134.4 16.5 48.9 9.6 18.9 Indonesia JCI 13.3 26.3 0.7 110.5 26.7 33.4 Mexico MEXBOL 40.1 160.6 1.8 67.8 24.7 44.9 Poland PWSMWIG n/a 1.1 12.1 1483.1 63.6 69.2 South Africa JOHMKT 19.9 41.0 4.8 38.3 6.3 35.9 South Korea KOSPI 29.1 7.1 0.1 38.8 4.1 3.1 Turkey TKSMCOMP n/a n/a 19.6 354.9 25.5 96.2 US DJIA 5.6 17.8 2.7 20.0 3.4 40.4 US SPX 4.5 18.9 7.4 9.7 2.3 35.2 Source: Bloomberg
Table 4: Attributes of Selected Emerging Markets Portfolios Average Average 12 Average Number of AverageP/ Average Country Dividend Month Return(1) Capitalization firms E Beta Yield (%)* (MM of US$) Brazil 578 87.49 .0.2 9.85 14.30 604 China 403 12.32 n/a 1.71 0.12 200 Indonesia 419 8.17 0.57 2.64 53.09 969 Mexico 488 26.56 n/a 1.00 103.44 1.03 South Africa 567 n/a 0.85 2.23 57.78 1.94 Turkey 224 20.51 0.36 2.03 132.02 189 Source: Bloomberg (1) Between 4/23/95 and 4/22/96.
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EMERGING MARKETS: SIZE AND RETURN In order to further explore the relationship between size and return in the emerging markets, I run a regression based on the FamaMcbeth (1973) model. The model is specificities as follows:
Rij = α0 + α1 Betaij + α2 LSizij where:
th th Rij is the 12 month return of the j company in the i country. th th Betaij is the beta of the i company in j country. th th LSizij is the natural log of the market value of i company in j country.
We expect a negative association between returns and α2 ( <0) if there is a size effect in each country. We selected 155 firms from Indonesian market which have complete data needed for regression analysis.
Table 6 shows the preliminary results. A few interesting observations can be made. Contrary to most comparable statistics for studies of stock returns in the U.S. [Banz (1978), Keim (1983)], the R2 indicates little explanation from beta. Beta’s insignificance is probably due to the highly speculative nature of trading in most emerging markets. For instance, trading in some Asian markets, such as Indonesia and Taiwan, more resembles gambling than investing. Therefore, there is little or no relationship between risk and return.
Table 5: Annual returns of Selected Emerging Market Portfolios Ranked by Market Capitalization 5A. BRAZIL Market Number of 12 Month P/E Dividend Price Beta Capitalization Capitalization Firms Return (%) Yield /Book (US$) Ranges (MM) 0.00 l0M 9 22.85 4.15 0.70 7.56 NA 6.48MLN 10M 500M 64 26.49 58.24 1.43 138.01 NA 181MLN 500M 1B 6 60.09 70.27 1.44 238.26 NA 752MLN lB 2B 5 98.57 14.02 12.64 694.04 NA 1.26BLN 2B Up 7 159.27 18.91 44.02 63.80 0.93 3.94BLN
5B. CHINA Market Number of 12 Month P/E Dividend Price Beta Capitalization Capitalization Firms Return (%) Yield /Book (US$) Ranges (MM) 0.00 l0M 1 3.53 4.70 12.12 0.00 NA 9.43MLN 10M 500M 290 1.50 11.89 1.89 2.35 NA 133MLN 500M 1B 10 8.23 20.32 1.70 3.61 NA 725MLN 1B 2B 5 13.79 28.57 2.07 4.87 NA 1.43BLN 2B Up 1 53.64 8.47 4.55 2.13 NA 2.16BLN
5C. INDONESIA Market Number of 12 Month P/E Dividend Price Beta Capitalization Capitalization Firms Return (%) Yield /Book (US$) Ranges (MM) 0.00 lM 17 5.67 5.34 6.04 0.44 0.31 6.57MLN 10M 500M 186 48.43 9.88 3.04 1.39 0.66 116MLN 500M 1B 19 61.34 16.53 1.49 3.12 0.55 676MLN 1B 2B 8 66.94 25.92 1.38 6.22 0.50 1.37BLN 2B Up 6 103.06 39.07 0.71 8.56 0.55 5.94BLN
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5D. MEXICO Market Number of 12 Month P/E Dividend Price Beta Capitalization Capitalization Firms Return (%) Yield /Book (US$) Ranges (MM) 0.00 l0M 10 23.66 0.76 0.80 0.20 NA 6.72MLN 10M 500M 78 104.82 15.89 1.13 1.44 NA 196MLN 500M 1B 15 99.91 33.87 0.67 1.67 NA 760MLN 1B 2B 13 144.20 25.43 0.74 1.95 NA 1.55BLN 2B Up 12 113.46 17.53 0.71 2.62 NA 3.38BLN
5E. SOUTH AFRICA Market Number of 12 Month P/E Dividend Price Beta Capitalization Capitalization Firms Return (%) Yield /Book (US$) Ranges (MM) 0.00 lM 97 176.96 NA 3.26 NA 0.62 4.23MLN 10M 500M 259 43.06 NA 2.73 NA 0.68 172MLN 500M 1B 36 36.82 NA 1.99 NA 0.77 753MLN 1B 2B 27 43.70 NA 2.13 NA 0.99 1.52BLN 2B Up 29 91.05 NA 2.04 NA 1.04 5.51BLN
5F. TURKEY Market Number of 12 Month P/E Dividend Price Beta Capitalization Capitalization Firms Return (%) Yield /Book (US$) Ranges (MM) 0.00 l0M 14 78.01 7.66 1.82 2.45 0.35 4.59MLLN 10M 500M 107 92.75 22.71 2.04 6.91 0.36 128MLLN 500M 1B 6 17.82 15.24 4.40 6.09 0.36 667MLN 1B 2B 2 21.39 133.18 11.53 5.74 0.37 1.47BLN 2B Up 1 162.74 69.78 0.00 19.62 0.34 2.26BLN
5G. ALL MARKETS Market Number of 12 Month P/E Dividend Price Beta Capitalization Capitalization Firms Return (%) Yield /Book (US$) Ranges (MM) 0.00 l0M 149 63.19 4.43 2.20 2.58 0.19 5.53MLN 10M 500M 983 30.57 100.9 1.65 12.62 0.15 177MLN 500M 1B 92 53.63 89.10 1.60 5.44 0.75 749MLN 1B 2B 61 75.58 15.17 6.93 14.99 0.95 1.40BLN 2B Up 55 124.48 19.50 21.51 13.41 0.99 4.71BLN Source: Bloomberg
Moreover, contrary to the findings of U.S. markets (Keim, Banz, Reinganum), the significant tstatistic of positive size coefficient indicates a reversal of the small firm effect in Indonesia’s market. The size effect seems to increase with firm size rather than decline with size. This may be explained by institutional interest in large firms, due to liquidity and information availability. The positive size relationship and the lack of a risk/return relationship probably reflect the immaturity of the markets and may well disappear as the markets mature.
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS In the search for anomalies in the ten big emerging markets, we have potentially discovered some unusual results. Specifically, there seems to be no risk/return relationship as we would expect, and as exists in developed markets. Second, the relationship between size and rate of return, which has been shown to be consistently negative in developed markets, is positive for Indonesia. We initially interpret this to indicate market immaturity and likely to change as the market matures.
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We expect to find other supporting evidence as we analyze other markets. China, for example, will likely produce the same result; but South Africa, a more mature market, should show a positive risk/return and negative size/return relationships.
Table 6: Regression of Indonesia’s Stock Returns on Beta and Size Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept 23.11 17.27 1.34 Ln(Size) 13.51 3.57 3.78* Beta 3.11 2.97 1.05
Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.30 R Square 0.09 Adjusted R Square 0.08 Standard Error 70.40 Observations 155 * Significant at the 0.01 level.
REFERENCES Amihud, Yakov, and Haim Mendelson. “Asset Pricing and the BidAsk Spread,” Journal of Financial Economics, 17, No. 2 (Dec. 1986), pp. 22350. Arbel, Avner and Paul Strebel. "The Neglected And Small Firm Effects," Financial Review, 1982, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 201218. Banz, Rolf W. “The Relationship Between Returns and Market Value of Common Stocks,” ,” Journal of Financial Economics, 9 (1981), pp. 318. Barry, Christopher B. and Stephen J. Brown. "Differential Information And The Small Firm Effect," Journal of Financial Economics, 1984, Vol. 13, No.2, pp. 283294. Blume, Marshall E. , and Robert F. Stambaugh. “Biases in Computed Returns,” Journal of Financial Economics, 12 (1983), pp. 387404. Brown, Keith C., W. V. Harlow, and Seha M. Tinic. “How Rational Investors Deal with Uncertainty (or, Reports of the Death of Efficient Market Theory Are Greatly Exaggerated),” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Fall 1989. Business America. “Selected Reports from the Big Emerging Markets,” Department of Commerce (Jan. 1995), pp 1117. Chan, K. C., NaiFu Chen, and David A. Hsieh. “An Exploratory Investigation of the Firm Size Effect,” Journal of Financial Economics, 14 (1985), pp. 451471. Chan, K. C., and NaiFu Chen. “Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms,” Journal Of Finance, 46, No. 4 (Sept. 1991), pp. 14671484. Divecha, Arjun B., Jaime Drach, and Dan Stefek. “Emerging markets: A Quantitative Perspective,” Journal of Portfolio Management, 19, Fall, pp. 4150. Fama, Eugene, and James MacBeth. “Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests,” Journal of Political Economy, 81, No. 3 ((May/June 1973), pp. 607636. Kato, Kiyoshi, and James S. Schallheim. “Seasonal and Size Anomalies in the Japanese Stock Market,” in Japanese Capital Markets: Analysis and Characteristics of Equity, Debt, and Financial Futures Markets, Edwin J.Elton and Martin J. Gruber, ed., Harper & Row, Publishers (1990). Keim, Donald B. “Size related Anomalies and Stock Return Seasonality: Further Empirical Evidence,” Journal of Financial Economics, 12 (1983). Lustig, Ivan L. and Philip A. Leinbach. "The Small Firm Effect," Financial Analyst’s Journal, 39, No. 3 (1983), pp. 4649. Research: Evidence On The Small Firm Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 20, No. 4 (1985), pp. 501516. Reinganum, Marc R. “The Anomalous Stock Market Behavior of Small Firms in January,” Journal of Financial Economics, 12 (June 1983), pp. 89104. Reinganum, Marc R. “Misspecification of Capital Asset Pricing: Empirical Anomalies Based on Earnings Yields and Market Values,” Journal of Financial Economics, 9 (March 1981), pp. 1946. Roll, Richard. "A Possible Explanation Of The Small Firm Effect," Journal of Finance, 36, No. 4 (1981), pp. 879888. Roll, Richard. "On Computing Mean Returns And The Small Firm Premium," Journal of Financial Economics, 12, No. 3 (1983), pp. 371386. Schultz, Paul. "Personal Income Taxes And The January Effect: Small Firm Stock Returns Before The War Revenue Act Of 1917: A Note," Journal of Finance, 40, No. 1 (1985), pp. 333343.
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Schultz, Paul. "Transaction Costs And The Small Firm Effect: A Comment," Journal of Financial Economics, 12, No. 1 (1983), pp. 8188.
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An Examination of Empirical Relationship Between Investment Decisions and Capital Structure Decisions
AN EXAMINATION OF EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS
Su Tang and Binjie Liu University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, China
ABSTRACT This article empirically investigates the interaction between firms’ investment, and capital structure decisions. Using S&P 500 companies, it examines in a real world with market imperfections, how and to what extent investment decisions and capital structure choices are interdependent. Extant literatures suggest that because of the existence of recapitalization costs, asymmetric information, taxes, and a default cost of debt, investment decisions and financial decisions are interactive, but empirical evidence on this proposition is very limited and the causality relationship is inconclusive. In this paper, we construct simultaneous equations models and employ twostage least square (2SLS) methodology to examine whether investment decisions determine, or are determined by capital structure choices. The tests are undertaken at crosssectional firmspecific level. Our findings support the view that capital structure choice is “causally prior to” and “exogenous with respect to” investment decisions, which can be interpreted from two aspects: first, investment decisions depend on capital structure; secondly, capital structure choices are independent of investment decisions.
I INTRODUCTION In their famous pioneering paper “ The Cost of Capital, Corporate Finance, and the Theory of Investment” (1958), Modigliani and Miller provide the “irrelevance proposition” of financial decisions5, which state that under the condition of perfect capital market assumptions, the instrument used to finance an investment is irrelevant to the question of whether the investment is worthwhile. Since then, a central question in financial economics has been whether market imperfections establish a linkage between these decisions. Myers (1974) first developed a model that in a real world with information asymmetriesmanagers often have more information than what is available to investors, high cost of issuing leads to “underinvestment problem”. Jensen and Meckling (1976), on the other hand, prove that for those “cash cow” companies, low debt ratios are always associated with agency problem and “overinvestment”. 40 years after MM theorem, academic researches are consensus on the point that in a world with financing frictions, such as recapitalization costs, asymmetric information, taxes, and a default cost of debt, the investment decisions of firms depend on their financial decisions.
A number of papers discuss how these frictions affect the investment decisions. Some papers construct static models to examine the investmentfinancing linkage, i.e., investment and financing decisions are made at a single point in time and are irreversible, which refers to firms refrain from investing and recapitalizing during a period of time and adjust slowly.6 Examples include Bernanke and Gertler (1989, 1990), and Brennan and Schwartz (1978). Some other papers, develop models endogenized either the investment or financing decisions. Examples include Hite (1975), Dotan and Ravid (1985), Dammon and Senbet(1988), and Aivazian and Berkowiz (1991). Most recent literature has developed to focus on dynamic rather than static investment and financing decisions, and endogenize both of them in their models. David C Mauer, Alexander J. Triantis (1994) prove that productivity flexibility has a positive effect on the value of interest tax shield thus increases firm’s debt capacity; they also find that debt financing, in contrast, has a negligible impact on a firm’s investment and operating policies. Nathalie Moyen (2000) reexamines the debtoverhang problem7 in a framework where a firm is allowed to recapitalize at any point of time, and where investment level rather than binary operating policies is used to measure the size of the underinvestment caused by debt financing. She shows that debt overhang cost is likely to be small.8 Michael J Barclay, Erwan Morellec and Clifford W. Smith (2003) extend previous studies and prove negative relation between debt capacity and growth options. The empirical relationship between firms’ real decisions and the other aspect of financing decisions, dividend policies, is well examined by Fama (1974) and Smirlock and Marshall (1983). Fama (1974) uses the twostage least square regression (2SLS) methodology, while Smirlock and Marshall (1983) employ causality tests. Both papers provide evidence on
5 Finacial decisions include capital structure decision and dividend decision, which seperately interpreted in MM irrelevance proposition 2, and 3. 6 This discussion follows Dixit and Pindyck (1994) 7 Debt overhang problem is first introduced by Jensen and Meckling(1984) 8 The same conclusion was obtained by Parrino and Weisbach (1999)
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MM’s view: even when imperfections are present in the capital market, empirical data still support the hypothesis that investment decisions are not influenced by dividend decisions.9 In contrast, there are two interesting phenomena associating with existing literature in examining the relation between investment decisions and capital structure choices: on the one hand, theoretical works are lack of support from empirical studies; on the other hand, most extant empirical works focus on the relation between a firm’s leverage choice and the composition of investment opportunity set rather than investment itself.10
Our paper aims to fill this gap, developing the hypothesis that firm level investment decisions and capital structure choices are interdependent in a real world with financial frictions existing, empirically reexamining the relationship to test of our interdependence hypothesis, and further concluding how and to what extent investment decisions are related with capital structure choices. We explore this research question by directly examining the interaction between investment decisions and capital structure choices of S&P 500 Composite Index member companies from 2000 to 200111. As to the methodology in this paper, since we are uncertain of the kind of causality relationships, we employ 2SLS methodology, simultaneously estimating investment and financing decisions models. Consistent with traditional wisdom, we find that a firm’s capital structure choice is independent of its investment decision, while investment decision is influenced by capital structure.
Our contribution to existing literature on interaction between investment and capital structure are two fold. First, we are the first to empirically investigate the correlation between firm’s capital structure and investment decision, taking uncertain causality into consideration. Our findings support the predication that investment decision may be distorted by a firm’s capital structure; that is, in a realistic world with financing frictions, investment decisions of firms depend on their financial decisions. This prediction derives from the framework of Nathalie Moyen (2000). Secondly, we extend previous studies of Fama (1974) and Smirlock and Marshall (1983), provide a clear and complete picture of empirical causality relationships between firm’s real and financial decisions, and thus simplify further study in this area.
Overall, our paper bridges the gap between empirical studies and theoretical studies of interaction between investment decisions and financial decisions. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section II describes our variables selection procedure. Section III identifies our data set. Section IV discusses the methodology choice, model specification, empirical results and related robustness checks. Section V extends our empirical work. Finally, Section VI concludes this paper.
II. DETERMINANTS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND INVESTMENT DECISION In this section, we present a brief discussion of the attributes we choose from a wide array of literature which are suggested to affect the firm’s debtequity12 choice and investment expenditure decision. Their relation to the optimal decisions and their observable indicators are discussed below.
A. Firm Size A number of authors have suggested that leverage ratios, investment expenditures may be related to firm size. Waner (1977) and Ang, Chua,and McConnell (1982) suggest that larger firms should be more highly leveraged. Jensen and Meckling (1984) provide evidence that larger firms tend to investment more. We use the natural logarithm of total assets (LnTA) as indicator of firm size.13 The logarithmic transformation guarantees the size effect on small firms.
B. Industry Classification Myers (1977) suggests that technology firms choose low debt ratio and heavily invest. To measure this, we include a dummy variable as an exogenous determinant for these two kinds of firm level decisions, equaling to one if firms have SIC codes falling into 2833, 2834, 2835, 2836, 3571, 3572, 3575, 3577, 3578, 3661, 3663,3669, 3674, 3812, 3823, 3825, 3826, 3827, 3829, 3841, 3845, 4812, 4813, 4899, 7370, 7371, 7372, 7373, 7374, 7375, 7377, 7378, 7379 (technology firms)14, and equaling zero if otherwise.
9 This conclusion is against Dhrymes and Kurz(1967)’s result that investment and dividend decisions are interdependent. 10 Long and Malitz(1985), Smith and Watts(1992), Barclay, Smith, and Watts(1995) all document negative relation between growth option and market levage, which is measured as the value of debt divided by the market value of the firm. Rajan and Zingales (1995) report that this negative relation is robust across seven western countries 11 To consider the dynamic financial and investment decision, we also investigate the time period for 1995 to 1999. There are some inconsistencies of each year’s results. The regression results are ready upon requirement. 12 In most previous literatures, debt refers to longterm debt 13 Titman(1984) suggest both LnTA and LnS (logarithm of sales) as indicators of firm size and prove the high correlation between these two indicators (0.98). 14 This kind of classification is justified by Denis, David J. (2003)
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C. Growth Agency problem, which is the problem of separation between “ownership” and “control”, suggests that firms with low debt ratio have the tendency to invest suboptimally to expropriate wealth from firm’s bondholders. The agency cost of debt tends to be higher for firms in growing industries, which have more flexibility in their choice of future investments. Jensen and Meckling (1976), Warner (1979), and Green (1984) proved the negative relationship between expected future growth and longterm debt levels. According to EMH, growth opportunity has been captured by the market, and so we use the ratio of market price to book value (PB) as the proxy for the growth opportunity.
D. NonDebt Tax Shields DeAngelo and Masulis (1980), and Titman (1984) argue that tax deductions for depreciation and investment tax credits are substitutes for the tax benefits of debt financing. As a result, firms with large amount of nondebt tax shields use less debt. We use the ratio of depreciation and amortization amount to total assets (Depr/TA) as the indicator of nondebt tax shields.
E. Profitability Ben S. Bernanke concludes from a lot of studies that profitability is an important determinant of investment behavior and sizable empirical evidence suggest that firms with higher profit invest more heavily than less profitable firms. The indicator we selected as a proxy for profitability is the ratio of return on asset (ROA).
F. Internal Funds Myers (1976)’s pecking order theory suggests that firms prefer raising capital, first from retained earnings, second from debt and third from issuing new equity. And Jensen and Meckling (1984) provide the explanation that firms with free cash flow tend to overinvest because of agency problem. The literature suggests that internal funds are positively correlated with investment expenditures. Edmund Kuh, Dhrymes and Kurz propose a world, in which, because of market imperfections, internal funds are a cheaper source of financing for the firm than new security issues. We use free cash flow (FCF) and as the proxies of internal funds.
III. DATA SET The variables constructed in section II are analyzed for the time period from 2000 to 2001.15 The sources of all data are the Annual Compustat Industrial Files. Our sample firms are selected from S&P 500 Composite Index members. From the full sample, we delete all the observations that don’t have a complete record on the variables included in our model analysis. Furthermore, we require the sample firms to have nonnegative investment expenditures every year and maintain normal leverage ratio at (0, 1). In total, 337 firms survivor.16 Table 1 and Table 2 give the descriptive statistics of our data set and the correlation matrix among variables separately, reflecting the sample characteristics.
15 1998 data is checked as outofsample test 16 S&P 500 company selection may bias our sample toward relatively large firms, and these two requirements exclude extreme cases from our sample.
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Table 1: Descriptive Statistics Panel A: Crosssectional Investment Expenditures from 2000 to 2001 Time period Investment(I,00) Investment(I,01) Mean 0.056 0.060 Standard error 0.002 0.002 Median 0.045 0.049 Standard deviation 0.043 0.044 Sample variance 0.002 0.002 Kurtosis 3.881 4.709 Skewness 1.627 1.709 Panel B: Crosssectional Debt ratio from 2000 to 2001 Time period DEBTRATIO01 DEBTRATIO00 Mean 0.214 0.199 Standard error 0.008 0.007 Median 0.224 0.188 Standard deviation 0.139 0.137 Sample variance 0.019 0.019 Kurtosis 0.593 0.251 Skewness 0.174 0.425 Panel C: Crosssectional Control Variables from 2000 to 2001 PB01 DeprTA01 lnTA01 ROA00 FCF00 Mean 3.892 0.046 9.017 6.692 0.043 Standard error 0.481 0.001 0.073 0.332 0.288 Median 2.925 0.043 8.937 5.696 0.635 Standard deviation 8.818 0.025 1.330 6.088 5.279 Sample variance 77.756 0.001 1.770 37.069 27.866 Kurtosis 86.935 10.512 0.516 1.347 78.476 Skewness 1.037 1.915 0.697 0.618 7.475
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An Examination of Empirical Relationship Between Investment Decisions and Capital Structure Decisions
Table 2: Correlation Matrix between Variables Panel A: Correlation Matrix of Parameter Estimates for Investment Equation DEBT01 DEBT 00 FCF00 ROA00 SIC DEBT01 1.000 .940 .449 .129 .093 DEBT 00 .940 1.000 .521 .178 .101 FCF00 .449 .521 1.000 .401 .305 ROA00 .129 .178 .401 1.000 .455 SIC .093 .101 .305 .455 1.000 Panel B: Correlation Matrix of Parameter Estimates for Capital Structure Equation DEBT01 DEBT 00 PB01 DEPRTA01 SIC DEBT01 1.000 .930 .184 .554 .507 DEBT 00 .930 1.000 .061 .299 .208 PB01 .184 .061 1.000 .044 .241 DEPRTA01 .554 .299 .044 1.000 .669 SIC .507 .208 .241 .669 1.000
IV. METHODOLOGY AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS In this section, we construct simultaneous equations models, employ 2SLS methodology to test of the interdependence hypothesis we have developed, interpret actual empirical results, and finally reinforce the conclusions by undertaking sets of robustness tests.
4.1 Simultaneous Equations Models & TwoStage Least Square (2SLS) Methodology Since prior studies have documented that both investment decisions and financing decisions may be endogenous, we employ a bivariate regression, two equations and two dependent variablesthe yearly percentage investment expenditure and the longterm debt ratioestimated simultaneously, to overcome the endogeneity problem. In this case, traditional OLS method is no more possible for parameters estimation, and we utilize the twostage least square (2SLS) methodology, which provides us a systematical estimation of the parameters of two structural equations we construct to model firms’ corporate policies:
Invt 0 1Capt 1 2Capt 3ROAt 1 4FCFt 1 5SIC t (1)
Capt 0 1Invt 1 2Invt 3PBt 4DeprTAt 5SIC t (2)
Where, we treat the currentperiod percentage investment expenditure (Invt) and current capital structure (Capt)measured by longterm debt ratioas two endogenous variables, and identify other eight exogenous variables, covering oneyear time lag capital structure and investment expenditure, firm size, profitability, internal funds, notinterest tax shields, growth opportunities, and industry effects. Our identifications of all these variables are motivated by a large literature on the determinants of investment decisions, as well as the determinations of capital structure decisions, which we have discussed in section II. And above Table 1 has summarized the descriptive statistics for all variables we selected.
Since we hypothesize that investment and capital structure decisions are interrelated while we cannot determine the kind of causality relationship between them, we further induce exogenous variables into the models. For investment decisions regression, identified by equation model (1), we first choose five exogenous variablesthe natural logarithm of total assets, SIC code, pricetobook ratio, percentage depreciation amount, and oneyear timelag return on assetsas the instrumental variables for estimating the values of currentperiod capital structure. And for capital structure regression, identified by equation model (2), we choose another set of five exogenous variablesnatural logarithm of total assets, SIC code, oneyear time lag return on assets, free cash flow, and capital structure ratioas the induced instrumental variables for estimating the values of currentperiod investment level. In general, we get the predicted values of currentperiod capital structure ratio and percentage investment expenditure simultaneously in the 1st Stage:
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Cˆapt 0 1InTAt 2SIC 3PBt 4DeprTAt 5ROAt 1 t (3)
Iˆnvt 0 1InTAt 2SIC 3ROAt 1 4FCFt 1 5Capt 1 t (4)
Then, in the 2nd Stage, we estimate simultaneous equations models of (1) and (2), utilizing the fitted value obtained from the equations of (3) and (4) at the first step as the instruments for the endogenous variables of Capt and Invt. The 2SLS estimation procedure is consistent, asymptotically normal, but in general asymptotically inefficient.
4.2 Empirical Results Table 3 reports systematically estimated crosssectional simultaneous regression models with 2SLS methodology for the year of 2001. And we choose one year as the preliminarily determined time lag.
Table3: Simultaneous Equations Models & 2SLS Estimation Results for the Investment Equation and Capital Structure Equation for the Year 2001 Panel A: Simultaneous Equation (1): Investment Model
Dependent Variable Investment2001 Independent Variable Coefficient tstatistics pvalue
Cap2000 1.832192 1.390 0.1655b
Cap2001 2.026895 2.035 0.0426a
FCF2000 0.012295 1.477 0.1407b
ROA2000 0.001593 0.551 0.5822 SIC 0.021019 0.496 0.6205 (Constant) 0.029476 0.234 0.8152 Panel B: Simultaneous Equation (2): Capital Structure Model
Dependent Variable Capital Structure2001 Independent Variable Coefficient tstatistics pvalue
Inv2000 1.918609 0.121 0.9038
Inv2001 3.699623 0.227 0.8207
PB2001 0.100852 1.969 0.0497a
Depr2001 9.697404 1.065 0.2875 SIC 0.023637 0.141 0.8881 (Constant) 0.465228 0.955 0.3405 a significance at 5 % b significance at 15%
Based on the results in above table, it is clear that in the investment equation, capital structure ratios are the important determinants of investment level: current capital structure can significantly influence current period investment decision at the level of 5 percent (tstatistics=2.035, significance tstat.=0.0426); and also, priorperiod capital structure still has the non negligible effect on current investment decision with the statistical significance level of about 15 percent (tstatistics=1.390, significance tstat=0.1655). These results are consistent with our expectation and provide the empirical evidence on the conclusion that many theoretical articles have reached: since the existence of financial frictions in a real world, investment decisions cannot be made separable from financing decisions. When the managements make investment policy, they will first consider how many debts are due in the near future, and firms with lower priorperiod debt ratio will tend to issue more debt and increase investment expenditure in current period. Furthermore, we note that priorperiod free cash flow also exerts significantly positive effect on current investment decisions. If a firm has more available internal funds, the management will be likely to invest more.
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When examining the capital structure equation, we find that both prior and currentperiod investment instruments are negative, which confirms that firms with higher investment expenditure and higher growth opportunities usually choose lower debt ratio; however, the coefficients are not statistically significant different from zero. Here, the insignificance may be driven by the endogeneity concerns. Then, we reject the interdependence hypothesis and conclude that, although investment decisions are significantly determined by capital structure, capital structure decisions are made independent of either past or current investment decisions. In fact, empirical evidence shows that capital structure decisions are significantly determined by the firm type: whether the firm is a highgrowth company or a mature company; the higher the pricetobook ratio, the lower the longterm debt ratio. This result makes sense considering the importance of financial distress cost in growing companies.
Taken together, the results from 2SLS estimation procedure make clear the causality relationship existed between firm level investment decisions and capital structure choices: capital structure, measured by the debt ratio, determines investment expenditure level, but not vice versa. We cannot completely accept the interdependence hypothesis at traditional significance level.
4.3 Robustness Checks One might argue that our results are driven by methodological choices and model specification concerns, or the year effect. To ensure that our conclusions are strong, we run a battery of robustness checks. First, we run multiple regressions separately as an alternative methodology to estimate the models (1) and (2) constructed. Table 4 summarizes OLS results for investment equation for the year of 2001; Table 5 reports OLS results for capital structure equation for the year of 2001.
Table 4: OLS Estimation Results for Investment Equation (Year 2001) Dependent Variable Investment Regression Statistics R square 0.061938919
df F Significance F Regression 5 4.357891783 0.000743975
Independent Variable Coefficient tstatistics Pvalue Intercept 0.04010072 6.694015576 9.34129E11 Capital00 0.049947511 1.392514408b 0.164704222 Capital01 0.072717209 2.030062866a 0.043151935 ROA00 0.001761631 4.346344658a 1.84581E05 FCF00 0.000356375 0.816457656 0.414827411 SIC 0.004566374 0.787136361 0.43176699 a significance at 5 % b significance at 15%
When examining above table, we find consistent results. Capital structure is an important determinant for firms’ investment decisions. When priorperiod debt ratio is low, the firm will be more likely to recapitalize, issuing more debts and increasing investment expenditures in the current period. We further find the significantly positive effect of timelag profitability on investment decisions. In fact, we expect that returnonasset and free cash flow are greatly interrelated; both of them can reflect firms’ past performance and internal funds availability.
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Table 5: OLS Estimation Results for Capital Structure Equation (Year 2001) Dependent Variable Capital Structure Regression Statistics R square 0.126929099
df F Significance F Regression 5 9.595235062 1.45451E08
Independent Variable Coefficient tstatistics Pvalue Intercept 0.229877688 15.28127921 3.0683E40 Investment00 0.297522204 0.994813799 0.320555715 Investment01 0.20121625 0.652189755 0.514732774 PB01 0.001603805 1.963751405a 0.050398148 DeprTA01 0.462520423 1.550088707b 0.122078691 SIC 0.110417649 6.333219618a 7.85244E10 a significance at 5 % b significance at 15%
As Table 4 shows, the conclusion that capital structure choices are separable from investment level is robust with the alternative multiple regression procedure. This insignificance is not mainly due to the model specification concern, as the large Fvalue of 9.60 says. In fact, the Rsquare is 0.13 and it means our model explains 13% of data set, which is acceptable in financial analysis. Pricetobook ratio, percentage depreciation and amortization, and SIC industry code have the significant explaining power on capital structure choices. These results generally make sense and consist with our expectation: high growth companies or firms operating in technology industries will use fewer debts for investment purposes.
In sum, till now, our results are not affected in the material way by using the alternative multiple regressions. It further confirms that our methodological choices and model specification are acceptable and meaningful.
The second group of robustness test focuses on the year effect. We utilize 2SLS estimation procedure for simultaneous equations models for the year of 1998. And we still incorporate oneyear time lag variables in the model specification17.
Again, this group of outofsample robustness test doesn’t alter our results meaningfully. Investment decisions are negatively influenced by priorperiod capital structure while positively related with current capital structure choices; however, ttests indicate that both relationships are not statistically significant (tstat2000=0.297, tstat2001=0.396). For the capital structure equation, we can conclude that capital structure choices are independent of both prior and currentperiod investment expenditure levels.
Besides, we examine the effects by other firm specific as well as industrial characteristics on corporate policies for the year of 1998. We confirm that firms with more free cash flow or technology companies have more investment expenditures, and high growth companies tend to use less debt because of financial distress costs. But again, we note that the empirical results in this set of robustness tests are generally not statistically significant. We check the correlation matrix and find high correlation among variables, which will necessarily weaken the explanatory power. In the next section, we extend our empirical work by further discussing our major findings as well as the limitations in this paper, and suggesting the directions for future academic research in this area.
V. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INVESTMENT AND FINANCING DECISIONS Our findings contribute to existing literature that attempts to explore the correlation between firm’s real and financial decisions. In this section we discuss the implications of ours findings for these literatures and introduce some unsolved questions.
17 The regression output will be ready on requirement but not report here. We summarize our major findings.
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5.1 Investment distortion caused by debt financing As mentioned in introduction, Jensen and Meckling (1986) discuss asset substitution problem, according to which equity claimants invest in more risky projects when debt is already in place, thereby expropriate value from debt claimants. Obviously, the debt overhang problem and asset substitution problem are closely related. The asset substitution problem refers to the variance distortion of investment, while the debt overhang problem refers to the mean distortion. Both trigger agency costs because equity claimants choose an investment policy that maximizes equity value only, once debt is in place. Leland (1998) extends the research and measures distortion cost, which is small at 1.37 percent of the firm value without agency problem. Nathalie Moyen (2000) proves that although distorting investment decision, overhang debts do no harm equityholders; that is, equity claimants benefit from underinvestment, especially in a bad economic situation. On the other hand, because of real world market frictions, firms with low debt ratio tend to over invest in nonprofitable or unrelated businesses. Myers and Majluf (1984), and Mayer (1986) discuss trade off between tax benefits and default costs.
Our findings provide further evidence on the issue of distorted real decision by financing decision: light investment caused by high debt ratio and heavy investment caused by low debt ratio. Our tests examine investment and capital structure decisions simultaneously and find that firms with high longterm debt ratio tend to under invest. Given the experiment design, it is difficult to attribute our findings to endogenous financial and investment decisions in one estimation equation.
5.2 Independence of Capital Structure Choice As Brian Barry and Dun Gifford Jr (1998)18 pointing out: “a company’s financial structure matters a great deal. But to design that structure intelligently, financial executives need to understand the crucial links between a company’s product markets, its operating efficiency and its potential to create value through new investment…” Our results support this conclusion, which is also consistent with a lot of existing literature. The capital structure choices depend on what attributes? A lot of literature suggests that the variation in firm’s debt ratio selection is affected by factors: asset structure, nondebt tax shields, growth, uniqueness, industry classification, size, earning volatility, and profitability.19
Our findings are generally consistent with the previous studies: growth opportunity and industrial influence are important factors in determining optimal capital structure while investment expenditure has negligible explanatory power in capital structure choices. In other words, capital structure decision is independent of firm’s real decision.
5.3 Causality Relations between Investment and Capital Structure Decisions As we discussed in introduction, capital structure and investment may be correlated in crosssectional firms or over time for a firm. According to pecking order theory of Myers (1984), one would expect some dependence in the joint distribution since investment return, which is part of internal fund, determine the needs for external funding, especially debt issuing. Further, both variables may be similarly related to other variables in a structural model of firm decision making. Hence, simply utilizing regression models for capital structure and investment decisions cannot conclude on the exact causality relationship. In this sense, we improve our methodology to clarify the direction of correlation between these two firm decisions.
The relationship between the capital structure and investment decision in our sample can be interpreted in following way: the debt ratio (longterm debt) decided upon may be considered in determining current investment outlays, but not vice versa. That is, capital structure choice is “causally prior to” and “exogenous with respect to” investment decisions.
5.4 Limitations in Research There are some limitations in our research. First, in capital structure equation, spurious relations may be induced between debt ratios measured at book value and the explanatory variables if firms select debt level in accordance with market value target. Unfortunately, some firms use book value targets while others use market value targets, and it is difficult to differentiate the sample in practice. Secondly, firms’ investment and financial decisions might change through time; our results reflect static point choice of firm. Further study might offer timeseries analysis on dynamic firm level investment and financial decisions.
VI CONCLUSION In this paper, we construct simultaneous equations models for corporate investment decisions and capital structure choices, employing twostage least square methodology with time lag variables considered to test whether these two kinds of firm
12 Please refer this citation to http://www.cfoeurope.com/199809g.html 13 These literatures include works by Bradley, Jarrel, and Kim(1984), Auerbach,(1985), and Long and Malitz(1985), Titman(1982;1984)
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S. Tang and B. Liu Volume 7 – Fall 2009 specific decisions are significantly interdependent in a real world. In a sample of 337 companies consisting S&P 500 Composite Index over the most recent year 2001, we find that with the real world financial frictions existence, firm level investment decisions are significantly influenced by capital structure, while capital structure choices are made separable from investment decisions. These findings lead us to reject the hypothesis of the interdependence between investment and capital structure decisions. For robustness, we also utilize an alternative methodology of multiple regressions and examine the other time period. Generally, our results are consistent and meaningful.
This paper provides strong empirical evidence on the conclusion that investment decisions depend on capital structure given the imperfections of real world. It is consistent with the fact that current academic researches have documented and accepted. Furthermore, we find that capital structure decisions are independent of investment decisions, and we make clear the causality relationship between firm’s real and financial decisions. In this sense, we suggest a promising area for future academic research: to explore more on the joint determination of firm’s capital structure and investment decision with the dynamic analysis.
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An Examination of Empirical Relationship Between Investment Decisions and Capital Structure Decisions
Myers. S. C., 1974, “Interactions of Corporate Financing and Investment DecisionsImplications for Capital Budgeting:, Journal of Finance 29, 125 ______, 1984, “The Capital Structure Puzzle”, Journal of Finance 39(3), 57592 Nathalie Moyen ,2000, “ Investment Distortions Caused by Debt Financing”, working paper of University of Colorado at Boulder Peter MacKay, Gordon M. Philips, 2002, “ Is There an Optimal Industry Financial Structure ?”, NBER Working Paper P. Marsh., 1982, “The Choice between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study”, Journal of Finance 37, 12144 Parrino R.and M.S.Weisbach , 1999, “ Measuring Investment Distortions Arising form StockholderBondholder Conflicts”, Journal of Financial Economics 53, 342 R. Green, 1984, “Investment Incentives, Debt, and Warrants”, Journal of Financial Economics 13, 11535 Smith, C., and R.Watts 1992, “The Investment opportunity Set, and Corporate Financing, Dividend, and Compensation Policies”, Journal of Financial Economics 32, 26292 ______., 1979, “ On Financial Contracting: An Analysis of Bond Covenants”, Journal of Financial Economics(), 11761 Sheridan Titman, Roberto Wessels, 1988, “The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice”, Journal of Finance 43(1), 119 ______, 1984, “ The Effect of Capital Structure on a Firm’s Liquidation Decision”, Journal of Financial Economics 13, 13751
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PART I THE FOUR FACTORS OF QUALITY: ACHIEVING THE CIRCLE OF ACCEPTANCE AND SATISFACTION
Avis J. Smith New York City College of Technology, USA
ABSTRACT The purpose of this report is to present a theoretical approach to two concepts which the author defines as, The Four Factors of Quality, and the second being The Circle of Acceptance & Satisfaction. These concepts represent the active business process from the manufacturer to the professional customer and social customers; it is part of the overall process to achieve customer acceptance and satisfaction. It outlines the basic responsibilities of all areas of business and consumption in the process, and how diligent sustainability of those responsibilities can help to perpetuate quality. The concepts are those developed by the author, and apply to past and current research in the area of customer satisfaction.
Keywords: Business Customer, Professional Customer and Social Customer.
LEVELS OF QUALITY ASSESSMENT When communicating in business relations, many times we fail to visualize the big picture or the total process from start to finish. It is very important to know and understand the steps of the total process for the purpose of tracking and ensuring quality. The process in the general since of business (business customerprofessional and social customer) refers to the levels of manufacturing to the customers’ acceptance and use of the product or service. This process is commonly referred to by the author as Circle of Acceptance and Satisfaction. The factors of quality are those which include manufacturing, distribution, sales and the customer (professional and social). There are however, many times when we must reassess variable inputs at each level of the four factors, to avoid adverse affects in quality relevant to the successful achievement of the ultimate goal, which reflects the completion of the Circle of Acceptance and Satisfaction (Quality). Completion however, will vary depending on the type of field or business one is involved in; whether it includes a product, service or a combination of the two. Every goal must be properly met at each factor level in order for the business customer, and professional/social customer to successfully complete the Circle of Acceptance and Satisfaction. The goals of the four factor levels manufacturing, distribution, sales and the customer when successfully achieved should equal the completed Circle of Acceptance and Satisfaction. Chart 1 displays the significance of the process below.
Chart 1: Circle of Acceptance and Satisfaction when goals of The Four Factors of Quality are met. Manufacturing Distribution/Distributor
Circle of Acceptance & Satisfaction
Customer Sales Professional/Social Department /Stores, etc.
Each description of the levels of The Four Factors of Quality begins with the existing purpose. Each factor level has its reason for existence, which is rooted in the competitive priorities significant to each. These competitive priorities are significant to each factor and help the business customer or professional customer standout as a more favorable product or service than competitors. The purpose when aligned with competitive priorities must be sustained in order to add value to the business customer or professional customer; therefore the sustained purpose is linked to the achievement of quality, and transfers into the Circle of Acceptance & Quality. By a business customer or professional customer adhering to and sustaining its’ purpose of competitive priorities, they perpetuate a sustained quality.
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BUSINESS CUSTOMER The business customer refers to the tasks and processes which describe the chain of direction for getting products to the market place. This chain starts with the manufacturing process, continuing with the distributor/distribution process, followed by sales, and on to the professional and/or social customer. The manufacturer is referred to as a business customer because they generally do business with other businesses of larger scale. Larger scale businesses can include hospitals, car dealers, banks, department stores, educational institutions, government and other similar large scale businesses. Distributors and sales are also in the category of business customers, as they also generally do business with larger scale businesses.
PROFESSIONAL/SOCIAL CUSTOMER The professional customer is the smaller scale business such as private practicing doctors, dentists, lawyers, accountants and other similar small scale professional customers. These small scale customers generally depend on larger scale businesses in the business relationship to supply specific needs. They are similar in many ways to the social customer and generally seek similar forms of redress when there is a lack of quality or service. Together the professional customer and average consumer are referred to as the social customer due to their reliance on the larger scale businesses. What separates the professional and social customer is that the professional customer in its reliance on larger scale business relies heavily on the social customer to patronize their functions. The professional and social customers are primarily involved in a competitive selection process.
MANUFACTURING LEVEL Manufacturing can be very complex when reaching across the various business and professional disciplines. A discussion of the manufacturing processes in various areas of business and professions however, can reveal the generalization of the concept of The Four Factors of Quality across business and professional disciplines. The first step in the manufacturing phase is to realize its purpose, and how that purpose relates to its responsibilities in the overall process. Purpose is rooted in understanding the competitive priorities of the manufacturer in its plans to carry out its mission. As an example, the manufacturer must make guarantees in the parts that make up its product. The manufacturer must express to its distributors the reasons that its product is competitively a better choice than its competitors. What must be included also is a method of expressing and reviewing the purpose of the manufacturing process within the organization and how to achieve overall success. In general manufacturers must know all of the components of their product and arrange for the proper distribution of their product. It is the manufacturer that has the social responsibility of product safety and the need for continuous sustainability. This particularly refers to the manufacturers of toys, foods, drugs, appliances, automobiles and various others types of equipment. When we investigate the sequence of The Four Factors of Quality, there are specific tasks or sustainable responsibilities needed to maintain competitiveness. Chart 2 below outlines the areas of major responsibilities for the manufacturer.
Chart 2: Sustainable Competitive Responsibilities.
Manufacturer Safety, Quality, Quantity, Timeliness
Manufacturing Distribution Sales Customer
Once the manufacturer has sustained these three competitive areas, they are in a position to be competitive in the business environment.
DISTRIBUTION Distributors have a basic responsibility of making sure that the manufacturer’s products are in sufficient quantity and that all factors of timeliness are prepared and in place to be forwarded to sales vendors. The distributors have a responsibility to ship items to the vendors in conditions of quality as sustained by the manufacturer. They are responsible to the sales level to assure delivery of suitable quantity. Chart 3 below represents the process.
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Chart 3: Required Sustainable Tasks For Distributors
Distributor Quantity, Timeliness, Quality
Distributor Sales
SALES The level of sales has the most visible responsibility due to the constant contact with the social customer. The social customer has many resources available to them for redress when satisfaction is not obtained through transactions. In order for sales to be competitive they must follow strict guidelines of quality service, courteous service, timeliness and maintain sufficient quantity. Customers of sales can include hospitals, doctors, dentists, stores, car dealers, various levels of government etc. The major concerns or tasks for sales will exist in the areas mentioned in Chart 4.
Chart 4: Required Sustainable Tasks in Sales
Sales Flexibility Timeliness Sustained Quality Quantity Customer Service
Sales Customer
The area of sales is the most complex because it includes equipment, products and services. Hospitals, doctors dentists, accountants and lawyers sale their services; while stores, car dealers and other sales facilities sale the products of manufacturers. They are all customers in the sequence of The Four Factors of Quality, with basic responsibilities that vary. All areas of business are legally responsible for the contents it sales, or the quality of the services it renders. Table 1 below, displays an example of some other business and social customers with their basic responsibilities listed. Table 2, further displays defined areas in the four factors element and large, medium and small scale business definitions.
Table 1: Example list of some other responsibilities for the business customer and the social customer. 1. Business Customer Responsibility Social Customer Responsibility 2. Cleaners Bailer to Bailee Patron Accurate requests 3. Hospital Patient Care Patient Know patient rights 4. Toy Dealer Strict Liability Buyer Understand consumer rights 5. Educational Institution State and Federal Laws Student Review student rights and responsibilities 6. Lawyer Legal Representation Client To understand lawyer/client relationship 7. Government Judicial/Social Citizens Social ethics of law
MANUFACTURER BUSINESS CUSTOMER PROFESSIONAL CUSTOMER SOCIAL CONSUMER/CUSTOMER Manufactured Parts Distributors of products Private offices rendering services General consumers Farm Products Sales Doctors Automobiles Government Dentists Toys, etc. Lawyers, etc. Note: Large scale business is defined by the author as a business having not less 500. Medium scale business is defined as a business having between 100 and 500. Small scale business is defined as a business having less than 100.
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ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS The primary ethical considerations in the four factors of quality are outlined in the governmental established laws which govern our society. What is important is that all elements of the four factors have an ethical responsibility in their interactions with each other. These interactions when there is conflict, creates the need to seek redress within the court systems. One of the major concerns in ethics is that of product liability, which reflects the responsibility of the manufacturer. All products of manufactured must be suitable for use or consumption by those who purchase them.
CONCLUSION The Four Factors of Quality is the corner stone of assessment to use in the overall evaluation of the interrelated process of business. It helps to perpetuate a conscious evaluation of the total process that transfers into the Circle of Quality, which makes a society improves on it current standards and prepares for a better future. There is no area of the business process that it excludes.
SOURCES Steiger, Darby., Keil, Linda and Gaertner, Greg; "Mode Effects in Customer Satisfaction Measurement" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association For Public Opinion Association, Fontainebleau Resort, Miami Beach, FL,
CONTACT: Avis J. Smith, Assistant Professor New York City College of Technology Restorative Dentistry (P409) 300 Jay Street Brooklyn, New York 11201 Phone: 7182605137 Fax: 7182548557
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FOUNDATIONS OF WORK MOTIVATION: AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON WORK MOTIVATION THEORIES
Kimberly Johnson and Christine W. Lewis Auburn University Montgomery, USA
ABSTRACT Motivating employees is one of the primary responsibilities of a manager (Moorhead & Griffin, 1998). Companies want motivated employees because they want increased productivity, profits, and satisfied workers. Therefore, interest in work motivation began as early as the 1930’s (Klein, 1989). Numerous theories influence researchers’ perception of work motivation; consequently, the concept of work motivation does not have one underlying theory. Work motivation is an intangible concept and cannot be measured directly (Ambrose & Kulik, 1999). Although thorough, this paper is not an exhaustive review of the literature. The research focus was limited to articles published in English journals and articles focusing on adults. Moreover, articles were excluded if work motivation was not the primary focus. This paper focuses on the seven traditional work motivation theories: Motives and Needs Theory; Expectancy Theory; Equity Theory; GoalSetting Theory; Cognitive Evaluation Theory; Job Design Theory; and Reinforcement Theory, and will detail some of the latest research on each of these theories.
Keywords: Work Motivation; Content Theories; Process Theories
INTRODUCTION Work motivation is composed of internal and external forces, and these forces influence workrelated behavior in terms of form, direction, intensity, and duration (Pinder, 1998). Work motivation is essential to an organization because work motivation influences an employee’s behavior. Theories of work motivation can primarily be divided into two categories: content theories and process theories (Work Motivation Theories). Content theory focuses on the exact factors that motivate people and determines what factors influence people’s behavior (Content Theory).
However, process theory tries to show why people’s needs alter in terms of motivation. Simply stated, process theory seeks to give an explanation as to how motivation occurs (Process Theory). Articles centered on other variations of motivation, such as motivation to attend, training motivation, motivation to learn, inspirational motivation, and testtaking motivation were excluded from this paper (e.g., Smith, Jayasuriya, Caputi, & Hammer, 2008). This paper will begin with a discussion of content theories beginning with needs theory.
CONTENT THEORIES Needs Theory. The needs theory is comprised of three prominent theories, all of which were developed in the 18th century. The first theory developed on needs is very wellknown. The hierarchy of needs theory developed by A.H. Maslow in 1943 attempts to explain an individual’s motivation. Maslow identified a total of five need hierarchy levels, and he divided those into two categories: lowerorder needs and higherorder needs. He defined lowerorder needs as basic physiological needs: safety and security. Lowerorder needs are primarily satisfied through economic rewards (Moorhead & Griffin, 1998).
Maslow delineated that lowerorder needs must be met in the order he stated them. Also, he wrote that these needs must be satisfied first before an individual will try and fulfill a higherorder need. The higherorder needs are belonging and social needs, esteem and status, plus selfactualization and fulfillment. Higherorder needs are met differently than lower order needs and can often be satisfied through psychological and social rewards. He further avowed that higherorder needs also had to be met in the order he established them. His theory suggests that different factors can motivate individuals depending on their position on the hierarchy of needs pyramid (Davis, 1981).
While his concepts were interesting, Maslow’s hierarchy of needs has limitations. First, the hierarchy of needs expresses the views of the typical American; yet, the hierarchy of needs may differ in other cultures. Furthermore, studies have also shown that individuals do not always respond in the order suggested by the hierarchy of needs (Davis, 1981). A contemporary of
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Maslow, Viktor Frankl, a Holocaust survivor, wrote a bestselling book about Frankl’s efforts in a concentration camp to find meaning through suffering. The 1956 book, Man's Search for Meaning detailed his theory of logotherapy. Frankl asserted that man found meaning through everyday living regardless of the circumstances which was contrary to Maslow’s assertions (Boeree, 2006). According to DeVita (2008), a fundamental flaw in the hierarchy of needs theory is people tend to always want more, resulting in an everincreasing pyramid.
The second needs theory, which was developed by D. McClelland (1961), identified three types of needs: need for achievement, need for affiliation, and need for power. Need for achievement describes the degree an individual focuses on goals and desires to demonstrate competency. If an individual has a high need for achievement, he or she will place a large degree of his or her energy on accomplishing a task or job. On the other hand, the need for affiliation indicates the degree to which an individual values social interactions. An individual with a high need for affiliation prefers to spend time maintaining social relationships and joining groups. For example, research indicates that women are less driven by power and money and more driven by connection and quality (Gershman, 2008). Finally, the need for power reflects an individual’s desire to influence or encourage others to achieve but this has a positive and a negative side. A person with a high positive need for power enjoys working and is concerned about discipline and selfrespect. However, an individual with a high negative need for power is more selfish in nature and is neither group nor companyoriented. He or she has the “I win, you lose” mentality. Consequently, the need for power alone may or may not be beneficial to an employer.
The ERG theory, which is the final need theory, was developed by C. Alderfer (1972). The ERG theory provides an alternative theory about needs, and this theory is simpler than Maslow’s (1943) hierarchy of needs. The ERG theory states that there are three types of needs, specifically the need for existence, need for relatedness, and need for growth. The need for existence corresponds to Maslow’s physiological and safety needs, and the need for relatedness coincides with Maslow’s social needs. Finally, the need for growth corresponds with Maslow’s esteem and selfactualization needs. Unlike Maslow’s hierarchy of needs; however, the ERG theory states that any need could occur at any time. Nonetheless, no empirical or theoretical research utilizing the ERG theory was currently found.
Motives Theory. F.I. Herzberg (1966) developed the motivatorhygiene theory (i.e., twofactor theory). Herzberg thus created, the main motives theory in Organizational Behavior. The motivatorhygiene theory has two components but it does not revolve around how often an individual washes. Hygiene refers to maintenance factors and the second factor deals with motivational factors. Herzberg believed that both motivator and hygiene factors impact an individual’s motivation. The motivatorhygiene theory focuses on which job conditions impact satisfaction and dissatisfaction.
The theory affirms that employees will be dissatisfied if the hygiene factors on their jobs are poor. Yet, the presence of hygiene factors does not necessarily create employee satisfaction; it simply causes an employee not to be dissatisfied. Examples of hygiene factors are company policy and administration, pay, job security, working conditions, status, peer relations, and quality of supervision. Generally, hygiene factors center around job context factors, or extrinsic motivators (Moorhead & Griffin, 1998).
On the other hand, motivational factors primarily center on job content factors, which are intrinsic motivators, but their lack does not necessarily cause job dissatisfaction. Examples of motivator factors are recognition, advancement, the type of work performed, responsibility, and the possibility of growth (Moorhead & Griffin, 1998). Hence Herzberg’s twofactor theory, as both hygiene factors and motivational factors must be taken into account.
IMPACT OF CONTENT THEORIES The interest in motives and needs peaked during the 1970’s and 1980’s. However, since the 1980’s, little empirical and theoretical research has been done (Ambrose & Kulik, 1999). The decline of research in this area may indicate the maturity of this subfield of motivational theory. As a result, as previously stated, few articles were found that utilized motives and needs theories. Nonetheless, despite the lack of recent empirical and theoretical research on motives and needs, this section will describe the foundation theory for each and the latest research on the same.
In 2005, Donavan, Carlson, and Zimmerman studied the influence of personality traits on sports fan identification with the sports team they supported. The study examined several personality traits such as extraversion, agreeability, need for arousal, and need for materialism and the moderating effect of need for affiliation. Study results reveal that need for affiliation did positively influence the level of fan identification with their team. Additional studies examined need for affiliation (Tsung Chi & ChungYu, 2008) and the need for affiliation and power (Kuhl & Kazen, 2008).
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A study by Daugherty, Kurtz, and Phebus (2009) examined both McClelland’s need for achievement and need for affiliation theories. The study examined 120 participants to determine if personality influenced need for achievement and need for affiliation. A unique aspect of this study was the comparison between how participants evaluated themselves and how close acquaintances rated them. Study results revealed that ratings of acquaintances on conscientiousness significantly helped to predict need for achievement; whereas, selfratings and acquaintance ratings did not predict need for affiliation. Several studies other studies were done based on McClelland’s (1961) need for achievement, also known as achievement striving (Lee, 1995).
Achievement striving was the focus of a study by Bluen, Barling and Burns (1990). Insurance salespersons were viewed to determine if their work performance, work attitudes (e.g., job satisfaction), and signs of depression could be predicted by their levels of Achievement Striving (AS) and ImpatienceIrritability (II). AS is a construct used to describe the degree to which an individual is active, works hard, and takes their work seriously. A construct that describes an individuals’ degree of intolerance, obsession with time, anger, and hostility is II. The authors acknowledged Type A as a global construct composed of AS and II components. When controlling for biographical differences and II, results indicate that AS positively influenced job performance (measured by the number of insurance policies sold) and had a positive effect on job satisfaction. However, depression was not related to AS when biographical differences and II were controlled. In the second part of the Bluen et al. (1990) study, the authors controlled for biographical differences and AS. The results demonstrated that although II was positively linked to depression and negatively influenced job satisfaction, it was unrelated to job performance (the number of insurance policies sold). This study confirmed Type A behavior is comprised of at least two components, AS and II.
Further AS research was conducted by Barling, Kelloway, and Cheung (1996) who studied how a car salesman’s performance was influenced by the interaction between time management behaviors and AS. Results indicated time management behaviors (i.e., shortrange and longrange planning) had different effects according to the car salesman’s motivation level. More specifically, shortrange planning is defined as those tasks performed daily or weekly, whereas, long range planning is performed over a quarter. Barling et al. (1996) suggested that if effective methods of increasing time management behaviors are identified, then the job performance of highly motivated individuals should improve. Additionally, results indicate a significant interaction exists between shortrange planning and AS. Therefore, increasing shortterm planning by employees should improve performance.
Several studies have utilized Herzberg’s motivatorhygiene theory to determine how certain job attributes influence an employee’s motivation. For example, Maidani (1991) compared how public sector and private sector employees rated the importance of fifteen job attributes. Although the results of the study indicated that both sectors of employees were more motivated by intrinsic job attributes, extrinsic factors were more highly valued by public sector employees. Gabris and Simo (1995) studied twenty motivational needs to determine how each need motivated the employees of public, private, or non profit organizations. Although no difference was detected between public and private sector employees, employees of non profit organizations had a lower need for competitiveness and autonomy. Not surprisingly, however, they had a higher desire to serve the community.
Another aspect to the motives theory which has been studied is the Protestant Work Ethic (PWE), which symbolizes the degree to which an individual makes his or her work the center of their life (Ambrose & Kulik, 1999). PWE is viewed as a type of motive that influences work motivation. Ali and Falcone (1995) studied work ethic in the United States and Canada to determine whether a relationship existed between workrelated measures, such as individualism, work involvement and work ethic. The authors suggested that the historical background of a country (i.e., persistent social and economic conditions) needed to be considered when discussing PWE. Ali and Falcone (1995) found that the United States and Canada share similar political systems and social diversity, but differences may exist in workrelated attitudes. Specifically, the results of this study indicated that United States’ employees are more committed to PWE, contemporary work ethic (i.e., CWE workers expect more receptiveness from their employers and greater personal growth from their work), and workrelated individualism.
Two years prior to the Ali and Falcone (1995) study, a group of researchers, Stein, Smith, Guy and Bentler (1993) conducted a longitudinal study on the impact of achievement on job satisfaction for adults. The study dealt with factors previously found in an individual’s life which influences their behavior as adults. They found that low levels of adolescent achievement resulted in low job satisfaction and negative job behaviors in adults. Another interesting finding was that children, under the age of three, who received achievement pressure from their parents, had a higher need for achievement and earned higher incomes as adults.
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Each of the content theories studied have provided not only researchers but practioners as well insight into what motivates people. Despite the valuable insight gained from content theories, process theories are equally important. Knowing “what” motivates someone is only one part of the equation; then the next step is determining “how” you motivate them. The second half of this paper will specifically focus on the following process theories: Expectancy Theory, Equity Theory, GoalSetting Theory, Cognitive Evaluation Theory, Job Design, and Reinforcement Theory.
PROCESS THEORIES Expectancy Theory. The expectancy theory as developed by V.H. Vroom (1964) states that this motivation theory is a product of expectancy, instrumentality, and valence. Expectancy is the belief that effort will result in the desired performance (i.e., effortperformance expectancy). Faith that one’s performance will be rewarded is instrumentality (i.e., performanceoutcome expectancy). Valence is the perceived value of the reward to the individual (e.g., a promotion). The expectancy theory proposes that motivation is a multiplicative function of expectancy, instrumentality, and valence (Davis, 1981). The multiplicative nature of the expectancy theory indicates that if all three components are high, then motivation must be high and viceversa. However, if one component is missing, then the motivational level of the individual will be zero. Another well known process theory is equity theory.
Equity Theory. J.S. Smith (1965) conceptualized the equity theory, which states that people are motivated to maintain fair (equitable) relationships with other people. Once the relationship is perceived to be unfair, it is no longer equitable. To determine whether a relationship is equitable, people compare their perceived inputs and outputs to the same inputs and outputs of other peoples, but not limited to, fellow employees, persons in another organization, or himself or herself. Inputs are those things that an individual contributes to a job, such as amount of time worked, amount of effort, and qualifications. Outputs are those things that an individual receives from his or her job, such as pay and fringe benefits.
When an individual compares his or her inputs and outputs to another individual’s inputs and outputs three outcomes can occur. Specifically, an individual can perceive that overpayment inequity, underpayment equity, or equitable payment has occurred. If a person perceives that there is an overpayment inequity (i.e., one is receiving greater output, although he or she has given input that is comparable to others), he or she will feel guilty and seek to increase his or her input or reduce his or her output. On the other hand, if a person perceives that there is an underpayment inequity (i.e., one is receiving less for his or her input than others), then he or she will become angry and seek to reduce the inequity. He or she may choose to decrease his or her input (e.g., increase tardiness) or increase his or her output (e.g., request a raise). Because the equity theory deals with perceptions of fairness, an individual may choose to alter his or her perception of an inequitable state by altering his or her perception of the circumstances. Although several studies have been conducted using expectancy and equity theories, by far, one of the most studied process theories is goalsetting theory.
GoalSetting Theory. E.A. Locke and G.P. Latham (1990) conceptualized the goalsetting theory as a means to describe how setting goals is an important motivational force. Establishing a goal enables an individual to compare his or her current state to a future desired state. If someone feels they have the ability (i.e., selfefficacy) to accomplish a goal, then they will work towards that goal. However, failure to achieve the desired goal will cause dissatisfaction. But, the person will work harder at achieving that goal because they feel the goal is obtainable. Once the goal is reached, the individual will feel more competent and successful. This is based on the belief that a goal provides a clear illustration of the type and level of performance needed for achievement of that goal. In addition, goal commitment is the degree to which a person accepts and strives to attain a goal. If a person wants to reach a goal and believes he or she can reach the goal (i.e., selfefficacy), then that person becomes more committed to the goal. It then follows that if desire to obtain a goal and selfefficacy do not exist, a person will be less committed to the goal. The goalsetting theory states that an individual’s beliefs about selfefficacy and goal commitment can influence task performance. However, Cognitive Evaluation Theory not only focuses on extrinsic motivation but intrinsic motivation as well.
Cognitive Evaluation Theory. In 1971, E.L. Deci developed the Cognitive Evaluation Theory (CET) which stated that an individual can be motivated extrinsically and intrinsically. An individual who is motivated extrinsically believes that he or she is motivated by outside forces; thus he or she seeks extrinsic rewards, such as a pay raises or promotions. On the other hand, an intrinsically motivated individual believes that he or she is motivated by internal desires; as such, he or she seeks intrinsic rewards, such as selfesteem (Deci & Ryan, 1980). Another aspect of CET is the work environment and its influence on employees’ intrinsic motivation. The intrinsic motivation of an employee has been found to decrease if that employee works in a controlling environment. However, if an employee receives constructive feedback instead of being controlled, the intrinsic motivation of the employee will not be affected (Deci & Ryan, 1980). Research on CET peaked during the 1970’s and 1980’s (Ambrose & Kulik, 1999). Although several metaanalyses of CET have been conducted (i.e., Cameron & Pierce, 1994; Tang
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& Hall, 1995), little research has been conducted where CET is applied to work motivation. However, researchers have also explored how to motivate workers by redesigning their actual jobs.
Job Design. In 1911, the concept of job design was introduced by F.W. Taylor, the Father of Scientific Management. According to George and Jones (2002), scientific management is “a set of principles and practices designed to increase the performance of individual workers by stressing job simplification and specialization” (p. 214). They also stressed that job design is the method used to link specific tasks to specific jobs, while determining the necessary tools and procedures to accomplish those jobs. Job simplification is the subdivision of work into the smallest, most identifiable tasks. Job specialization involves assigning workers to those tasks. Although an interesting concept, workers became bored with the monotony of their jobs. In an effort to reduce the monotony, advances, such as job enlargement, job enrichment and job rotation were made in job design.
Job enlargement is a tool used to expand the scope of a job by adding more variety and tasks at the same skill level. Proponents of job enlargement state that it can improve employee satisfaction, motivation, and quality of production. However, critics believe job enlargement does not have a longterm impact on job performance. In the 1960’s, a tool was introduced to overcome the limited effects of job enlargement on work motivation. Job enrichment was designed to give employees a higher degree of control over their work with respect to planning, design, implementation and evaluation. Job enrichment involves performing tasks at higher levels of skill and responsibility. Another unique process theory is Reinforcement Theory, which focuses on motivating people through encouraging or discouraging certain behaviors.
Reinforcement Theory. B.F. Skinner (1953, 1972) is generally associated with reinforcement theory. The reinforcement theory encourages desirable behavior or discourages undesirable behavior through reinforcement. The four types of reinforcements that exist are positive reinforcement, negative reinforcement, extinction, and punishment. Positive reinforcement consists of giving rewards or feedback for desirable behavior. One example of positive reinforcement is when a manager commends an employee for his or her punctuality. Negative reinforcement involves encouraging an individual to avoid undesirable behaviors or removing an individual from an undesirable situation when he or she engages in desirable behaviors (Davis, 1981). For example, a salesperson may choose to works long hours in lieu of being relocated to an undesirable territory. When undesirable behaviors are eliminated by withholding positive reinforcement, this is known as extinction. An example of extinction is when an employee consistently works overtime, but his or her supervisor fails and/or refuses to acknowledge his or her extra efforts. Punishment, the final reinforcement theory, results in the end of undesirable behaviors by having a negative event follow the undesirable behaviors. For example, if an employee is late to work, his or her supervisor may openly reprimand them.
IMPACT OF PROCESS THEORIES Expectancy and Equity Theories. Advances to the expectancy theory were accomplished by L.W. Porter and G.E. Lawler (1968). They attempted to (1) identify the sources of an individual’s valences and expectancies and (2) link effort with performance and job satisfaction. They found a person must have sufficient opportunities to perform his job and skills, abilities, role perceptions, and a person’s belief of what is expected of him can influence his ability to successfully perform his job. The relationship between compensation package, work motivation, and job performance was studied by Igalens and Roussell (1999). Expectancy and discrepancy theories were used to examine how the components of a total compensation package might influence work motivation and job satisfaction. The results of the study indicated that under specific conditions, individualized compensation of exempt employees can be a factor of work motivation. However, flexible pay (nonexempt employees only) and benefits (both exempt and nonexempt employees) neither motivates nor increases job satisfaction. The next process theory examined is equity theory.
Three studies in the early 1990’s all revolved around baseball. Harder (1991) examined the equity theory in comparison to the expectancy theory by studying major league baseball free agents. He believed these theories produced different results under identical conditions (e.g., perceived under reward and strong performanceoutcome expectancies). For example, free agent nonpitchers from 19771980 baseball seasons were compared to a random sample of nonpitchers. The author declared that free agents were more likely to feel under rewarded before entering the free agent market, but they had a higher expectation of an increased salary after becoming free agents. Both motivations were believed to impact the players’ performances. Equity theory suggests that performances would decline if an individual felt under rewarded, but the study results also indicated that performances that were strongly linked to future salary (e.g., home run ratios for free agents) did not decline. However, batting average has a weak relation to salary outcome; as such, it declined in the year before free agency. This finding suggests that the expectancy effect had a greater impact than the equity effect. The study further found that both direct and indirect equity effects rose. When participants were faced with inequitable under reward, their performance decreased if it
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Foundations of Work Motivation: An Historical Perspective on Work Motivation Theories was not strongly linked to future salary (e.g., batting average). Furthermore, under conditions of inequitable under reward, performance did not increase if it was strongly linked only to future rewards (e.g., home run ratios).
The second study by Bretz and Thomas (1992) studied major league baseball position players to determine the influence of perceived equity, motivation, and finaloffer arbitration on performance and mobility. Generally, all players increased their performance before arbitration. The results of the study showed that a player’s prearbitration performance significantly predicted the outcome of arbitration. Specifically, those players who were successful in arbitration had greater increases in performance prior to arbitration. After arbitration, performance declined for both arbitration winners and losers. However winners, with large gaps between their demands and their actual offers, suffered higher rates of postarbitration performance decline than those players with smaller differentials. Bretz and Thomas (1992) suggested that the postarbitration decline was due to the players’ regression to their career averages. Additionally, the study showed a significant relationship between losing the arbitration and postarbitration performance. Those players who were unsuccessful at arbitration suffered a decrease in performance, and they were significantly more likely to change baseball teams or retire from baseball. In studying pay equity in professional baseball, (i.e., underpayment, equitable payment, and overpayment), one additional study was conducted.
The third study by Howard and Miller (1993) utilized Data Envelopment Analysis, which can provide managers with information concerning the format and levels of compensation that are appropriate for their organizations. Furthermore, this system enables managers to objectively estimate pay equity, and it provides them with a reliable defense for future reward allocations. Additionally, Data Envelopment Analysis allows a manager to systematically evaluate the organization’s compensation policies. Howard and Miller (1993) suggested that this tool will equip managers with those instruments that are necessary to make consistent equitable adjustments to programs and systems.
Van Eerde and Thierry (1996) conducted a metaanalysis which integrated the correlations of seventyseven studies based on Vroom’s (1964) original expectancy model and workrelated criteria. Findings of the metaanalysis indicated average correlations of the studies evaluated were slightly lower than Vroom’s (1964) expectancy model and workrelated criterion variables. However, the components of the models studied had higher effect sizes than Vroom’s model which supports that this finding has a lack of validity. Specifically, they believed that several studies were performed incorrectly from the original, intended theoretical viewpoint of Vroom’s (1964) expectancy theory and lack of proper data analysis. The flaws in the models studied suggested that the original components of the expectancy model (i.e., valence, instrumentality, and expectancy) should be used as opposed to other modified or suggested models. They further emphasized the use of precautionary measures when considering potential differing interpretations of the expectancy model theory utilized in prior research. Van Eerde and Thierry (1996) reiterated that the techniques used in prior research on the expectancy theory are often incorrect. Thus, the proper choice of criterion variables can make a difference.
Finally, Wheeler and Buckley (2001) used the expectancy theory as a suggestion on how to motivate a large segment of U.S. employees (i.e., contingent workers). Several differences exist between contingent workers and permanent employees. Generally, contingent workers are hired solely to reduce payroll or work a job that is isolated from other workers; temporarily fill a position while permanent employees are on vacation, longterm disability leave, or maternity leave; and given less pay and fewer (if any) benefits. They argue that the expectancy theory does an excellent job of examining how contingent workers determine what job to choose. According to Wheeler and Buckley (2001), “[t]he attractiveness of each organization (valence), the amount of effort required to join each company (instrumentality) and the expectation that the company will offer employment (expectancy)” (p. 349) cause many contingent workers to choose a specific company for employment (Wanous, Keon, & Latack 1983).
Goal Setting. Several studies took place in the early 1990s involving goal theories. Staw and Boettger (1990) studied the impact of task revision on work performance and stated that goalsetting can be used to energize behavior, and it is an influential method of guiding an individual’s behavior. Task revision is an action implemented to correct a faulty procedure, an inaccurate job description, or a role expectation which is not beneficial to the organization. The study’s results indicated that goalsetting inhibited task revision. For example, participants instructed to “do their best” outperformed those participants who were given a specific goal. However, if a supervisor attempts to implement goals that are counterproductive to the organization, his or her influence can effectively limit the chances for task revision. Conversely, Erez, Gopher and Arzi (1990) examined the effects of goal difficulty, the origin of a goal (selfset versus assigned) and monetary rewards (present versus absent) on the simultaneous performance of two tasks. Selfset goals irrespective of whether moderate or difficult, without monetary rewards, resulted in the highest performance level. However, a combination of selfset goals and monetary rewards negatively influenced performance.
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Varying the spotlight, in 1993, Tubbs addressed the issue of degree of commitment to assigned goals as a moderator of the effectiveness of the goalsetting procedure. He reviewed three studies that recommended a moderating assumption was valid; however, it was only relevant for one of three closelyrelated motivational concepts – prechoice attitudes, subsequent choice of a personal goal, and maintenance of the personal choice. In past research, all three motivational concepts had been discussed under the overarching title of goal commitment. However, for future research, Tubbs (1993) suggested that researchers distinguish between the three different aspects of goal commitment. According to Gostick and Elton (2009), authors of the bestseller The Carrot Principle, rewards should be personal and designed to meet the needs (i.e., interests and lifestyle) of the employee. However, this will take a manager who is concerned enough to find out this information about their employees.
SteeleJohnson, Beauregard, Hoover and Schmidt (2000) conducted two studies to assess the joint effects of goal orientation and task demands on motivation, affect (i.e., satisfaction with performance), and performance. The first study examined whether goal orientation interacted with task difficulty in its effect on performance, affect, and intrinsic motivation. Individuals with performancegoal orientations were more satisfied with their performances on simple tasks rather than difficult tasks. The second study examined the effects of task consistency in goal orientation on performance, motivation, and affect during skill acquisition. In this study, task consistency moderated the effect of goal orientation on selfefficacy and intrinsic motivation. Individuals with performancegoal orientations reported higher levels of selfefficacy on consistent tasks.
Erez and Judge (2001) studied how core selfevaluations were related to goal setting, motivation, and performance. A newly developed personality taxonomy suggested that selfesteem, locus of control, generalized selfefficacy and neuroticism form a broad personality trait termed core selfevaluations. The authors hypothesized that this broad trait was related to motivation and performance, and their findings supported the same. Erez and Judge (2001) found that, in a laboratory setting, the core selfevaluations trait was related to task motivation and performance. Additionally, the trait was related to the four core traits task activity, productivity as measured by sales volume, the rated performance of insurance agents, and goalsetting behavior.
When these core traits were investigated as one broad concept (i.e., core selfevaluations), they proved to be more consistent predictors of job behaviors than when used in isolation. The individual core traits were related to motivation and performance; however, the core selfevaluations factor displayed higher correlations with motivation and performance, in both a lab and a field study. The previous process theories primarily focus on motivating people extrinsically (i.e., people are motivated if they receive something in return).
Cognitive Evaluation Theory. In an interesting study, Juniu, Tedrick and Boyd (1996) examined amateur and professional musicians’ perceptions of rehearsals and performances. The results indicated that amateur musicians were intrinsically motivated to participate in rehearsals and performances. Amateur musicians viewed rehearsals and performances as a leisure activity and, therefore, were motivated by intrinsic factors, such as pleasure and relaxation. To the contrary, professional musicians viewed rehearsals and performances as work. Consequently, professional musicians were motivated by extrinsic factors (i.e. income), that they could receive as a result of rehearsing and doing performances.
A twostudy experiment by Erez and Isen (2002) evaluated the impact of positive affect on expectancy motivation. The first study resulted in three major findings: (1) positive affect increases a participant’s performance; (2) positive affect impacts a participant’s perceptions of expectancy and valence; and (3) positive affect had no impact on a participant’s perceptions of instrumentality. In the second study the link between performance and outcomes were specified; whereas in the first study, the outcomes depended on pure chance. The results of the second study showed that positive affect impacted expectancy, valence and instrumentality. They argued both studies demonstrate how positive affect interacts with task conditions in influencing motivation. Also in 2002, Judge and Ilies conducted a metaanalytic review of the relationship between personality traits (specifically, the Big5 personality model) and performance motivation, according to goalsetting, expectancy, and self efficacy theories. First, the authors’ results indicated that neuroticism was negatively related to performance motivation with respect to all of the aforementioned theories. To the contrary, conscientiousness was positively related to the theories on performance motivation. Generally, extraversion, openness to experience, and agreeableness shared a weak relationship to the three theories on performance motivation. They affirmed that this study clarifies the literature because using the Big5 personality model to analyze work motivation is more efficient rather than utilizing random personality traits.
Huang and Van De Vliert (2003) conducted a study that examined the national characteristics that moderate the individual level relationship between job characteristics and job satisfaction. The objective of the study was to determine where intrinsic job satisfaction fails to work. The results suggested that the link between intrinsic job characteristics and job satisfaction is
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Foundations of Work Motivation: An Historical Perspective on Work Motivation Theories stronger in wealthier countries; countries with better governmental, social welfare programs; more individualistic countries; and smaller, power distance countries. Additionally, intrinsic job characteristics tend to produce motivating satisfaction in countries with good governmental, social welfare programs, irrespective of the degree of power distance. However, intrinsic job characteristics often do not work in countries with poor governmental, social welfare programs and large, power distances. By contrast, extrinsic job characteristics are stronger and more positively related to job satisfaction in all countries. How to motivate people, whether intrinsically or extrinsically has received a considerable amount of attention in the literature, as is evident with the previous process theories discussed.
Job Design. The job characteristics theory (JCT) developed by J.R. Hackman and G.R. Oldham’s (1976, 1980) built on the work of job enlargement and job enrichment. They tried to identify the specific job characteristics which intrinsically motivate employees’ to perform their jobs such as skill variety, task identity, task significance, feedback, and autonomy. JCT states the higher a job scores on each of the five job characteristics the higher the level of an employees’ intrinsic motivation. To measure a workers’ perception of each of the five job characteristic dimensions, they developed the Job Diagnostic Survey. Furthermore, Wall, Corbett, Martin, Clegg and Jackson (1990) studied the impact of two alternative work designs of stand alone advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) on job performance which indicated that those operators who worked under the operatorcontrolled system improved downtime statistics, had less perceived job pressure, and had higher levels of intrinsic job satisfaction. Additionally, it reduced the demands placed on the specialist staff, and specialistcontrolled work design is most frequently utilized in the manufacturing industry.
However, an interdisciplinary examination of the costs and benefits of enlarged jobs was conducted by Campion and McClelland (1991). Overall, enlarged jobs resulted in a better motivational design (e.g., increased variety, autonomy, and task significance). The enlarged jobs seemed to increase employee satisfaction, lessen mental overload for employees, increase the probability of catching errors, and improve customer service. Interdisciplinarily enlarging jobs could but did not necessarily result in increased costs of training, the need for additional skills, and increased compensation. Furthermore, Wong and Campion (1991) studied ways in which to design a motivational job. Specifically, they focused on the motivational value of tasks, task interdependence, and task similarity on creating a motivational job. There were differing results for each of the variables studied. Task design shared a positive relationship with motivational job design which suggests that the motivational level of tasks is important when implementing a motivational job design. Unlike task design, task interdependence had an invertedU relationship with motivational job design, which indicates that task interdependence should be increased until the breakeven point. In other words, task interdependence should not be increased to the point of creating a negative relationship with motivational job design. Task similarity had a negative relationship with motivational job design. This finding reiterated earlier job design research that demonstrated that simplification and specialization of jobs decreased motivation. The results of Wong and Campion’s (1991) study also indicated that job design mediated the relationship between task design and affective outcomes.
Meanwhile, Spector and Jex (1991) studied the relationship between job characteristics obtained from multiple sources and employee affect, absenteeism, intention to turnover, and health. According to them, traditional research, utilizing the JCT, only collected reports of job characteristics from incumbents. They argued that incumbents may not be the best source for obtaining job characteristics information; consequently, they obtained information regarding job characteristics from three independent sources incumbents, ratings from job descriptions, and the Dictionary of Occupational Titles. Findings of the study showed that incumbent ratings only slightly correlated with the other two sources of job characteristics. Of the three job characteristic sources evaluated, only incumbent ratings correlated with employee outcomes such as job satisfaction, work frustration and turnover intentions. In sum, the results indicated that incumbent ratings did not accurately reflect actual work environments and thus should not be used solely to measure JCT.
In a study conducted by Dodd and Ganster (1996), three specific job dimensions (i.e., objective autonomy, task variety, and objective feedback) were manipulated to determine their impact on participants’ perception of job characteristics (e.g., job satisfaction) and job outcomes (e.g., job performance). Manipulations of objective autonomy and task variety impacted job satisfaction. More specifically, if a task had a large amount of variety, increased amounts of objective autonomy resulted in increased job satisfaction. However, if a participant was given increased objective autonomy over a task with little variety, small increases in job satisfaction resulted. When evaluating the impact on job performance, increased levels of objective autonomy resulted in an increase in job performance for high variety tasks by 16 percent. Increased objective autonomy for low variety tasks had little impact on job performance. Objective autonomy also interacted with objective feedback. Specifically, increased objective feedback in an environment of high objective autonomy resulted in a 16 percent increase in job performance. However, increased objective feedback and low objective autonomy had a small impact on job performance. Job design, in comparison to the other process theories is unique because this theory focuses on the workers job not just on the worker.
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REINFORCEMENT THEORY. Organizational Behavior Modification (OBMOD) is the systematic administration of operant conditioning for teaching and managing those organizational behaviors that the organization has deemed important. Organizational behavior modification consists of five basic steps (Drucker & Associates, 2007). The first step is to identify the behavior to be learned. The identified behavior should then be measured for frequency of occurrence before any intervention takes place. In step three, a functional analysis should be performed. A functional analysis is a method used to determine what antecedents or factors caused the identified behavior. Next, one must develop a strategy to change the frequency of the behavior. As part of the strategy, employees affected by the behavior should understand the change that is requested, and the change should be applied fairly and uniformly to affected employees. Finally, one must measure the frequency of the behavior after the previously mentioned steps have been implemented. According to George and Jones (2002), operant conditioning has successfully improved important organizational behaviors, such as productivity, attendance, punctuality, and safe work practices.
A study by Ball, Trevino and Sims (1994) examined the impacts of just and unjust punishments on subordinate performance and citizenship behaviors. Contrary to conventional wisdom, punishment can have a positive effect on subordinates’ behavior, if the punishment is administered in a particular way. If an employee believes that he or she has a high level of control over punishment procedures and imposed punishments (i.e., subordinate control), he or she will be more likely to engage in citizenship behaviors. Perceived harshness, a distributive characteristic of the punishment process because it impacts perceptions of equity and severity appropriateness, impacted subsequent supervisor perceptions’ of the subordinates’ job performance. Butterfield teamed up with Trevino and Ball (1996) and studied punishment from a manager’s perspective showing that managers received pressure regarding punishment from various sources, such as punished employees, organizations, work groups, and themselves. Although, managers influence these sources, the converse is also true. Managers understood that longrange consequences could result from administering punishment to subordinates; these long range consequences extend beyond changing the behavioral problems of those subordinates. As a result of the study, Butterfield et al. (1996) were able to develop an inductive model of punishment from a managerial perspective. The model noted the key relationships, variables, processes, and outcomes that enable one to understand punishment from a manager’s perspective.
Stajkovic and Luthans (1997) conducted a metaanalysis of the effects of OB MOD on task performance from 19751995. The metaanalysis revealed that employees who were involved in OB MOD groups generally improve their performances by 17 percent as opposed to employees who were not involved in OB MOD groups. The study also showed that type of organization can impact the effect of OB MOD on employee performance. More specifically, the survey results suggested that improved employee performance after an OB MOD intervention is generally greater for manufacturing organizations than service organizations. Research further indicates that when people are able to participate in changes made, they are more motivated to abide by those changes because they had were persuaded not threatened (56 Clev. St. L. Rev. 111).
CONCLUSION Work motivation research, with a history extending back to the 18th century, has provided varying explanations as to what factors motivate employees. Although, several of the work motivation subfields such as motives and needs have been extensively researched, the field of work motivation is still continually evolving.
This evolution of the work motivation field is apparent in newer work motivation topics such as culture, groups, and creativity (10 U. Pa. J. Bus & Emp L 958). Even as these new work motivation topics emerge, research is continually performed on older work motivation theories such as work design and reinforcement theory. As organizations continue to change and compete in a world defined with fewer boundaries and influenced by factors such as new technology, differing compensation systems, and flexible work schedules, the field of work motivation will continue to redefine itself.
REFERENCES Alderfer, C.P. (1972). Existence, relatedness, and growth. New York: Free Press. Ali, A.J. & Falcone, T. (1995). Work ethic in the USA and Canada. The Journal of Management Development, 14 (6), 2634. Ambrose, M.L. & Kulik, C.T. (1999). Old friends, new faces: Motivation research in the 1990s. Journal of Management, 25 (3), 231292. Ball, G.A., Trevino, L.K., & Sims, H.P. (1994). Just and unjust punishment: Influences on subordinate performance and citizenship. Academy of Management Journal, 37 (2), 299223.
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Barling, J., Kelloway, E.K., & Cheung, D. (1996). Time management and achievement striving interact to predict car sales performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 81 (6), 821826. Bluen, S.D., Barling, J., & Burns, W. (1990). Predicting sales performance, job satisfaction, and depression by using the achievement strivings and impatienceirritability dimensions of type A behavior. Journal of Applied Psychology, 75 (2), 212216. Boeree, C.G. (2006). Viktor Frankl. Accessed on September 25, 2009 from http://webspace.ship.edu/cgboer/frankl.html Bretz, R.D. & Thomas, S.L. (1992). Perceived equity, motivation, and finaloffer arbitration in major leaguebaseball. Journal of Applied Psychology, 77 (3), 280287. Butterfield, K.D., Trevino, L.K. & Ball, G.A. (1996). Punishment from the manager’s perspective: A grounded investigation and inductive model. Academy of Management Journal, 39 (6), 14791512. Cameron, J. & Pierce, W.D. (1994). Reinforcement, reward, and intrinsic motivation: A metaanalysis. Review of Educational Research, 64: 363423. Campion, M.A. & McClelland, C.L. (1991). Interdisciplinary examination of the costs and benefits of enlarged jobs. A job design quasiexperiment. Journal of Applied Psychology, 76 (2), 186198. Content Theory. Retrieved on September 25, 2009 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Content_theory. Daugherty, J.R., Kurtz, J.E., & Phebus, J.B. (2009). Are implicit motives “visible” to wellacquainted others? Journal of Personality Assessment, 91 (4), 373380. Davis, K. (1981). Human behavior at work. New York: McGrawHill. Deci, E.L. (1971). Effects of externally mediated rewards on intrinsic motivation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 18: 105115. Deci, E.L. & Ryan, R.M. (1980). The empirical exploration of intrinsic motivational processes. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 13: 3980. New York: Academic. DeVita, E. (2008, March 19). Management in theory... the hierarchy of needs. Management Today. Dodd, N.G. & Ganster, D.C. (1996). The interactive effects of variety, autonomy, and feedback on attitudes and performance. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 17, 329347. Donavan, D.T., Carlson, B.D., & Zimmerman, M. (2005). The influence of personality traits on sports fan identification. Sport Marketing Quarterly, 14 (1), 3142. Drucker & Associates (2007). Behavior modification. Retrieved on September 27, 2008 from http://drucker group.com/behaviour.htm. Erez, A. & Isen, A.M. (2002). The influence of positive affect on the components of expectancy motivation. Journal of Applied Psychology, 87 (6), 10551067. Erez, A. & Judge, T.A. (2001). Relationship of core selfevaluations to goal setting, motivation, and performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 86 (6), 12701279. Erez, M., Gopher, D., & Arzi, N. (1990). Effects of goal difficulty, selfset goals, and monetary rewards on dual task performance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 47, 247269. Gabris, G.T. & Simo, G. (1995). Public sector motivation as an independent variable affecting career decisions. Public Personnel Management, 24, 3350. George, J.M. & Jones, G.R. (2002). Understanding and managing organizational behavior. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall. Gershman, B.L. (2008). The most dangerous power of the prosecutor. Pace Law Review, 29 (1). Gostick, A. & Elton, C. (2009). The carrot principle: How the best managers use recognition to engage their people, retain talent, and accelerate performance. New York: O.C. Tanner Company. Hackman, J.R. & Oldham, G.R. (1976). Motivation through the design of work: Test of a theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16, 250279. Hackman, J.R. & Oldham, G.R. (1980). Work redesign. Reading, MA: AddisonWesley. Harder, J.W. (1991). Equity theory versus expectancy theory the case of major league baseball free agents. Journal of Applied Psychology, 76 (3), 458464. Herzberg, F. (1966). Work and the nature of man. Cleveland: World. Howard, L.W. & Miller, J.L. (1993). Fair pay for fair play: Estimating pay equity in professional baseball with data envelopment analysis. Academy of Management Journal, 36 (4), 882894. Huang, X. & Van De Vliert, E. (2003). Where intrinsic job satisfaction fails to work: National moderators of intrinsic motivation. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 24, 159179. Igalens, J. & Roussell, P. (1999). A study of the relationships between compensation package, work motivation, and job satisfaction. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 20, 1003102 Judge, T.A. & Ilies, R. (2002). Relationship of personality to performance motivation: A metaanalytic review. Journal of Applied Psychology, 87 (4), 797807.
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Juniu, S., Tedrick, T., & Boyd R. (1996). Leisure or work? Amateur and professional musicians’ perception of rehearsal and performance. Journal of Leisure Research, 28: 4456. Klein, H.J. (1989). An integrated control theory model of work motivation. The Academy of Management Review, 14 (2), 150 172. Kuhl, J. & Kazen, M. (2008). Motivation, affect, and hemispheric asymmetry: Power versus affiliation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 95 (2), 456469. Lee, C. (1995). Prosocial organizational behaviors: The roles of workplace justice, achievement striving, and pay satisfaction. Journal of Business and Psychology, 10, 197206. Locke, E.A. & Latham, G.P. (1990). A theory of goal setting and task performance. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: PrenticeHall. Maidani, E.A. (1991). Comparative study of Herzberg’s twofactor theory of job satisfaction among public and private sectors. Public Personnel Management, 20, 441448. Maslow, A.H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review, 50, 370396. McClelland, D. (1961). The achieving society. Princeton, NJ: D. Van Nostrand. Moorhead, G., & Griffin, R. W. (1998). Organizational behavior: Managing people and organizations (5th ed.). Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin. Pinder, C. C. (1998). Work motivation in organizational behavior. Upper Saddle River, NJ: PrenticeHall. Porter, L.W. & Lawler, E.E. (1968). Managerial attitudes and performance, Homewood, IL: Irwin. Process Theory. Retrieved on September 25, 2009 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Process_theory_. Skinner, B.F. (1953). Science and human behavior. New York: MacMillan. Skinner, B.F. (1972). Beyond freedom and dignity. New York: Knopf. Smith, J.S. (1965). Inequity in social exchange. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 267299). New York: Academic Press. Smith, R., Jayasuriya, R., Caputi, P., & Hammer, D. (2008). Exploring the role of goal theory in understanding training motivation. International Journal of Training and Development, 12 (1), 5472. Spector, P.E & Jex, S.M. (1991). Relations of job characteristics from multiple data sources with employee affect, absence, turnover intentions and health. Journal of Applied Psychology, 76 (1), 4653. Stajkovic, A.D. & Luthans, F. (1997). A metaanalysis of the effects of organizational behavior modification on task performance, 197595. Academy of Management Journal, 40 (5), 11221149. Staw, B.M. & Boettger, R.D. (1990). Task revision: A neglected form of work performance. Academy of Management Journal, 33 (3), 534539. SteeleJohnson, D., Beauregard, R.S., Hoover, P.B., & Schmidt, A.M. (2000). Goal orientation and task demand effects on motivation, affect, and performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(5), 724738. Stein, J.A., Smith, G.M., Guy, S.B., & Bentler, P.M. (1993). Consequences of adolescent drug use on young adult job behavior and job satisfaction. Journal of Applied Psychology, 78, 463474. Tang, S. & Hall, V.C. (1995). The overjustification effect: A metaanalysis. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 9, 365404. Taylor, F.W. (1911). The principles of scientific management. New York: Harper and Brothers. TsungChi, L. & ChungYu Wang (2008). Factors affecting attitudes toward private labels and promoted brands. Journal of Marketing Management, 24(3/4), 283298. Tubbs (1993). Commitment as a moderator of the goalperformance relation a case for clearer construct definition. Journal of Applied Psychology, 78 (1), 8697. Van Eerde, W. & Thierry, H. (1996). Vroom’s expectancy models and workrelated criteria a metaanalysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 81 (5), 575586. Vroom, V. (1964). Work and motivation. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Wall, T.D., Corbett, J.M., Martin, R., Clegg, C.W., & Jackson, P.R. (1990). Advanced manufacturing technology, work design, and performance a change study. Journal of Applied Psychology, 75 (6), 691697. Wanous, J.P., Keon, T.L., & Latack, J.C. (1983). Expectancy theory and occupational/ organizational choices: a review and test. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 32, 6686. Wheeler, A.R. & Buckley, M.R. (2001). Examining the motivation process of temporary employees. A holistic model and research framework. Journal of Managerial Psychology, 16, 2001. Wong, C. & Campion, M.A. (1991). Development and test of a task level model of motivational job design. Journal of Applied Psychology, 76 (6), 825837. Work Motivation Theories. Retrieved on September 25, 2009 from http://www.oppapers.com/essays/WorkMotivation Theories/210796. 10 U. Pa. J. Bus & Emp L 958 56 Clev. St. L. Rev. 111
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Glass Ceilings and Gender Gaps: A Survey
GLASS CEILINGS AND GENDER GAPS: A SURVEY
Lesley Mace and Ken Linna Auburn University Montgomery, USA
ABSTRACT Based on a survey given at a university economics forum, this paper investigates public opinion concerning important issues dealing with women in the workforce such as the glass ceiling, the gender gap, women’s role in the labor force, and various public policies used to address perceived gender inequalities in the workplace. The ability of women to balance career and family and serve in leadership roles was another topic addressed in the survey. Questions on employment choice and satisfaction were also asked of women who took a career break and then returned to the workforce. An overview of labor economics literature dealing with these issues is given, including a discussion of both the gender and family gaps found in wages of men and women, the effect of career breaks on women’s wages, and possible wage differences as the result of differing career choices. Evidence is also examined regarding the existence of both glass ceilings and sticky floors and statistical discrimination towards women in the workplace. An examination of the survey data found important differences in opinion not just between men and women, but also between different age groups, even within gender categories, and that younger groups of workers particularly favor a policy role for government in achieving workplace equity.
Keywords: Economics of Gender, Labor Markets, Labor Economics, Labor Discrimination
1. INTRODUCTION The labor force participation of adult women is now close to 60%, proof of the tremendous strides they have made in the workforce since 1950, when their participation was only 33%. Women are also increasing their leadership presence, with a record number now heading Fortune 500 companies and prominent national leadership positions such as Speaker of the House and for the second time, Secretary of State, being held by women. Women are also making progress in education; 58% of all college degrees now are awarded to women, including 59% of all Master’s degrees and 47% of all PhDs. Yet despite this progress, women still only represent 2% of all Fortune 500 CEOS, and less than 20% of the members of the Senate and the House of Representatives. And women are still earning only 81% of what men earn.
Two opposing schools of thought exist to explain why women have not achieved more in the four decades since the 1963 Equal Pay Act and the 1964 Civil Rights Act Title 7 were passed, putting into law equal pay for equal work and barring sex discrimination in the workplace. One school contends that it is persistent discrimination and sexism that conspire to hold women back under what has been popularly called the “glass ceiling”. The other school of thought, brought to light in the journals of labor economics, claims that it is the intermittent work history of women, and the subsequent loss in pay and seniority that accompany these “career breaks”, that are the main reason why women do not so often achieve the career success of their male counterparts.
This paper reports the results of a survey of a small sample of citizens, the majority of them women, on issues pertaining to women in the workforce which was conducted at a conference on the subject held at Auburn University Montgomery. This paper is organized as follows: In section 1, a general overview of the literature that deals with both the glass ceiling and career breaks is given. In Section 2, the Survey results are presented with a general discussion of the findings.
2. SECTION 1 The Gender Gap Literature on women in the workforce long focused on the “gender gap” the difference between the wages of men and the wages of women. Since the 1970s, that gap has fallen by 50%, from a difference of 40% to 19%. As women, and particularly mothers, have increased their labor force participation, now spend more years in the labor force, and are attaining more education than men, the question is now not why the gap exists, but why it still exists. Recent literature has identified a new
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L. Mace and K. Linna Volume 7 – Fall 2009 culprit the “family gap”. This gap has been found to explain almost half of the gender gap, with another 3040% being explained by work experience, something also affected by motherhood. (Waldfogel, 1998B). This is especially pertinent today, when 72% of mothers with children under the age of 18 are in the workforce (Hymowitz, 2004)
Since 1980, this gap has been determined to have increased in importance as a cause of women not making up the gender gap. (Waldfogel, 1998A) In 1991, the gap between men and women’s wages actually was smaller than the gap between the wages of mothers and nonmothers, indicating that something in parental responsibilities was affecting women’s wages. (Waldfogel, 1998B) Numerous studies have found that single women earn wages that are almost equal to their male counterparts, while married women lag behind. While women with children are earning only 6070% of men’s wages, non mothers have been found to earn as much as 95% of a man’s wage, putting the gap between the wages of mothers and non mothers at over 20%. (Waldfogel, 1998A, 1998B, and 1995, Blau and Kahn, 1997; and Budig and England, 2001).
Several theories abound as to why mothers pay a wage penalty. Because most women eventually do have children, and because the wages of women who eventually have children and those who do not are found to be similar at age 21, heterogeneity does not seem to be a factor. (Waldfogel, 1998A) Having children does necessarily mean leaving the workforce, even if for a short time. The average child related career break has been estimated at 2.2 years, (less for those employed in business.) (Hewlett and Luce, 2005), with length and frequency of breaks inversely related to education. (Mincer and Ofek, 1982) and with younger cohorts taking shorter breaks than those taken by their older counterparts. (Waldfogel, 1998B)
What is happening during these career breaks to erode the earnings of women? During career interruptions, human capital depreciates at a rate widely estimated at 1.5% a year, with a third of this being specific human capital. (Mincer and Ofek, 1982; Mincer and Polachek, 1974). Women who take career breaks may find themselves returning to the workforce with outdated skills and contacts, and may be forced to reenter the labor force at a lower wage, particularly if they are starting with a new employer or changing fields.(Spivey, 2005; Hewlett, 2005) Estimates of the negative impact of a child on a mother’s wage range from 48% for one child and from 1223% for two children, (Waldfogel, 1997; Arun, 2004; Lundberg and Rose, 200; Budig and England, 2001), with a penalty of 32% found for working mothers of three of more children. (Davies and Pierre, 2005). This wage penalty increases with education level and the length of break, with breaks of more than three years estimated at costing a woman 37% of her earning power. (Hewlett and Luce, 2005). Those who returned to work parttime, as more mothers than nonmothers do, were found to face an additional ten percent penalty. (Joshi, Paci, and Waldfogel, 1999; Waldfogel, 1997) Children therefore indirectly affect women’s wages by lowering a women’s labor force attachment, and her experience and tenure in a field (Korenman and Neumark, 1992), and may also lead a woman to invest less in human capital if she anticipates taking time out of the labor force for childrearing (Mincer and Ofek 1982; Mincer and Polachek, 1974). One study found fully 70% of the gender gap could be explained by differences in human capital and work experience, all of which erode during a career break. (Joshi, Paci, and Waldfogel, 1999).
Becker proposed a different hypothesis, claiming that the exhausting nature of childcare and household responsibilities (which still fall predominately on the woman, regardless of her education or occupational status), leaves women with little energy left for market work. This will lead women to respond by putting less effort into their jobs or to choose jobs that require less effort and rely on human capital skills that are not easily eroded, such as elementary teaching. (Mincer and Ofek, 1982; Becker, 1985) If employers think likewise, they may be likely to offer mothers lower wages, hire them only for lower level positions with less responsibility, or be reluctant to hire mothers at all. Employers may also fear that mothers will have frequent absences due to children being sick or childcare arrangements falling through. This statistical discrimination also may serve to lower wages which could already be affected by occupational selection. (Joshi, Paci, and Waldfogel, 1999).
Given this evidence, it is no surprise that a survey published in the Harvard Business Review found that 33% of successful career women age 4155 were childless, with that number rising to 42% in corporate America. Among women earning over $100,000, 49% were childless, compared to only 19% of men earning that salary. Only around 60% of high achieving and corporate women were found to be married, compared to around 80% of their male counterparts. (Hewlett, 2005). A study of female college presidents also found that they were less likely to be married than men (60% versus 90% ) and more likely to be childless (32% versus 9%) (Pope, 2007).
The New York Times created a furor in 2005 when it reported on the “opting out” phenomenon highly educated women who were leaving the workforce voluntarily, and not returning. A survey of female Stanford graduates revealed that 57% left the workforce; only 38% of female Harvard Business School graduates were working fulltime, as well as only 1/3 of their female MBAs. This is compared to only 5% of Harvard’s male MBAs leaving the workforce.
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Whether aware of the consequences or not, fully 4 out of ten women, and 43% of mothers, take a career break, usually for family responsibilities. These responsibilities usually involve childrearing, but can also involve caring for other family members, such as elderly parents. (Hewlett and Luce, 2005). For policymakers who are concerned about the subsequent ground lost by mothers returning to workforce (and fully ¾ eventually do return in some capacity) (Hewlett, 2002), the barriers to entry that women face after a long time out are a cause for alarm. Employers also have a concern about losing valuable employees. Policies that help women return to the workforce and retain their skills during a leave should be encouraged in a workforce that is currently 46% female. (BLS, 2005) While maternity leave is a cost to employers, it has also been found to increase employee retention. Over 60% of all women return to their jobs after maternity leave, with those who are the most educated the most likely to return. Because women who return to the same employer will lose less specific human capital and seniority, it has been found to actually reduce the effects of a career break. (Waldfogel, 1998A). On the other hand, the anticipation of maternity leave could cause employers to pay women lower wages. (Summers, 1989). Women who were covered by maternity leave and returned to work after childbirth were found to receive a wage premium that offset the negative wage effect of children, or to have no penalty at all if they maintained continuous employment. (Joshi, Paci, and Waldfogel, 1999). Those who return to the same job can benefit from their prebirth tenure, good job matches, and seniority; job changers were found to pay a wage penalty. (Waldfogel, 1998B) Maternity leave was also found to reduce turnover, increase commitment and productivity on a job, and increase the likelihood of a woman returning to work. (Lundberg and Rose, 2000) Unfortunately, a recent study by the McGill University Institute for Health and Social Policy rated the United States’ maternity leave policies as “among the worst”; the U.S. was among only 5 out of 173 countries surveyed that did not provide some type of paid maternity leave. (Schweitzer, 2007).
Workplace support plays a large role in job satisfaction, and those who are most satisfied with their jobs would be most likely to return to them. Child care is also an issue that working women must contend with, even though most care is done by relatives, and not in the market. Cost of child care has been found to negatively impact the probability that a woman will work (Connelly, 1992); in fact, Blau and Robins (1988) found that if childcare was fully subsidized, 87% of mothers would work. The high cost of childcare may explain the higher labor force participation rates and subsequent lower gender gaps that we see in Scandinavia, where childcare is fully subsidized. Child tax credits such as those given in the United States, while a step in the right direction, are taken mainly by those in the middle and upper classes, who probably also have higher education levels that lead them to participate at higher rates anyway. (Blau and Robins, 1988). In the U.S., tech companies such as Google, IBM, Microsoft, and Sun Microsystems are leading the way on this issue in the private sector by providing options such maternity and paternity leave programs, child care, flexible work schedules, disability leave, and the opportunity to work from home. (Rothberg, 2006).
In order to understand the persistent gender gap, we must understand the differing nature of labor force participation by men and women. Family responsibilities, while willingly undertaken, penalize mothers who must leave the workforce for a time and then return later, seeking to make up lost ground. The contributing factors of lost human capital, experience, a perception of inferior work effort, and perhaps a lower investment in human capital and workplace skills to begin with, all conspire to lower the wages of mothers. Quick returns to the workforce, particularly to the same employer, and support of working mothers in the form of maternity leave and child care may serve to lessen these effects somewhat, but the “family gap” still remains.
The “Glass Ceiling” Over twenty years have passed since the term “glass ceiling” made its way into modern terminology via an article in the Wall Street Journal. In 1995 a Congressional Commission was established to investigate the nature, causes of, and cures for this phenomenon. Today, the debate is still raging as to whether it even exists at all. Although studies have shown that companies with women directors have stronger financial performance than those with allmale boards, (Hertz, 2006), in 2005 women held only 4% of the corporate officer positions in U.S. Fortune 500 companies, (Arcieri,2007), and only 9.4% of Fortune 500 jobs higher than vice president (Virzi,2006). Believers point to statistics such as these, which are found worldwide (Wirth, 1998) as all the proof necessary that indeed, the glass ceiling exists. There is also quite a difference in the way men and women view the glass ceiling, a result found not only in our survey, but also in a survey published in the Wall Street Journal, where four times as many women as men believed women face a glass ceiling. (Badal, 2006).
Empirically, the glass ceiling has been defined as a widening of the gender wage gap at the top end of the wage distribution. A related phenomenon is the sticky floor, where the gender wage gap is also wider at the lower end of the pay distribution. This occurs when women and men are employed in the same ranks or positions, but the starting salaries paid women tend to be at the lower end of the range for that position, while men are offered wages at the higher end of the pay scale for their position and/or rank. This leaves women already starting behind from the beginning.
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There is a smaller body of literature that specifically concerns itself with the glass ceiling, and much of it rests on the empirical body of work done on the gender pay gap. Albrecht, Bjorkland, and Vroman (2003) investigated whether there was a glass ceiling in Sweden during a time when the gender pay gap was decreasing overall. They found a sharp increase in the gender wage gap starting at the 75th or 80th percentile of the wage distribution, even after controlling for education, sector and industry. Despite the many family support policies available in Sweden, their glass ceiling effect was found to be larger than that found in the United States or other nonScandinavian European countries. Kee (2006) examined Australian data and found a strong glass ceiling effect in the private sector, while the sticky floor phenomenon was more prevalent in the public sector. Another Australian study by Connell (2006) also suggested a glass ceiling that manifested itself primarily in gender division of labor. Arulampalam, Booth, and Bryan (2007) studied eleven European countries and found glass ceilings in nine countries, and sticky floors in two. For all but two countries, the glass ceiling was greater in the private than in the public sector. Gang, LandonLane, and Yun (2003) found glass ceiling effects in both Germany and the United States, concluding that men have an approximately 30% more upward mobility compared to women in the upper income classes. McDowell, Singell, and Ziliak (1999) found that the average female economist is 36% less likely to receive a promotion from assistant to associate professor, suggesting a glass ceiling in the Economics profession. On the upside here, the overall proportion of tenured women faculty is rising, even though it is still only 25% at doctoral granting universities. (Pope, 2007)
On the other side of the debate, two notable exceptions are found in a paper dealing with the law profession and another on public sector administration. Baker (2003) sampled high income law school graduates and discovered more evidence for a sticky floor than a glass ceiling. He attributed the sticky floor to selflimiting career moves women make to accommodate childrearing and other family obligations. Bowling, Kelleher, Jones, and Wright (2006) looked at the leadership of state agencies in all 50 states. Their research showed that female leadership has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, with the number of women serving as state agency heads growing from 1 in 20 in 1974 to 1 in 3 in 2004. Women agency executives earned 95% or more of what their male counterparts were earning, a type of equity that does not yet exist in the private sector, where women in fulltime management and professional jobs average pay that is about 73% of men’s, and female top executives still earn ½ to 1/3 the salary of male executives. (Sied, 2006)
Explanations for the glass ceiling results mirror those that explain the gender pay gap women do not work continuously throughout their lives, and often take breaks at points in time that are crucial to their careers; women selfselect less demanding jobs in order to accommodate family responsibilities or work parttime; female academics emphasize teaching over the more highly rewarded research; and a lower level of commitment to careers by women, whether this is real or perceived by employers, who assign jobs accordingly. A report in the Economist magazine (2005) identified several key factors that seemed important in the persistence of the glass ceiling. An exclusion from informal networks such as the golf course can leave women on the outside of important deals. To remedy this, some companies are now offering golf lessons for their female employees. Women are also held back by statistical discrimination and a feeling that they are less qualified for leadership. The lack of female role models may serve to reinforce these stereotypes among male employees and leaves female employees with few female mentors to emulate. The flattening of management levels in recent years as organizations seek to become more efficient also leaves fewer openings for women, especially for those seeking to reenter the workforce after a career break. Both Martin (2007) and Wirth (1998) found that while flexible working arrangements might seem to be a positive for women, women who take advantage of these arrangements are seen as being less committed to the workforce and therefore less likely to advance into higher positions. Perhaps partly in response, women are establishing their own businesses in record numbers. Over 9 million U.S. companies, representing 38% of the total, are womenowned (Bolte, 2006), and women are launching small businesses at more than twice the rate of men (Hymowitz, 2006).
3. SECTION 2 The 2006 Auburn University Montgomery Business and Economic Forum entitled “The New Role of Women in the National and State Economies” focused on this issue of increasing importance in today’s workplace. Speakers included Ms. Karen Ransom, Economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Rosemary Elebash, Alabama State Director of the National Federation of Independent Business, Joyce Bigbee, Director of the Alabama Legislative Fiscal Office, Kim Hendrix, News Reporter for WSFATV in Montgomery, Alabama, Dr. Melinda Pitts, Research Economist and Associate Policy Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Dr. Donna Paul, Medical Director of the Rheumatology and Osteoporosis Center in Montgomery. Attending the forum were faculty members from the School of Business, business students, high school economics students, and businesswomen from around the state.
All attendees were asked to complete a survey at the end of the forum evaluating the forum itself, demographic information on gender, age, education level, and employment status and their opinions on questions relating to women in the workforce. This
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Questions Asked The original survey instrument was completed by 52 participants after the panel of speakers had completed their presentations, 22 additional surveys obtained from economics students, and an additional 62 were completed online to increase the sample size and verify poll results for the statistical analysis. Participants were given the following questions, and asked to rate their opinion as “Strongly Agree”, “Agree”, “Neutral”, “Disagree”, and “Strongly Disagree”.
1. The “glass ceiling” is an obstacle to the career success of women. 2. Employers should hold open a woman’s job past the legal mandatory time given for maternity leave. 3. Employers should provide onsite daycare. 4. A woman can successfully balance career and family. 5. I believe money is the most compelling reason women stay in the workforce. 6. Most women who took a career break wish they had not. 7. A job or career is important for selffulfillment. 8. Women are qualified to take on leadership roles in business and government.
Those who took a “career break” were also asked to answer the following:
a. It was difficult to resume my career at the same level I left. (Yes or No) b. I am happy I returned to work (Yes or No) c. The primary reason I returned to work was : (Career / Boredom / Money)
Demographic Statistics Twothirds of our survey respondents were under age 30, reflecting the fact that 42% of our surveys were completed by current high school students, and another 40% by current college students. Nearly 40% of the respondents had completed some college, with about 14% having completed a Bachelor’s degree, and just under 6% a post graduate degree. Only one survey was completed by a PhD. The program drew a predominately female audience, with only 19% of the original surveys from attendees being completed by males, half of them current high school students. Additional surveys raised this percentage to just over 25%.
Overall Results Nearly half of those surveyed, (43%) either agreed or strongly agreed that the glass ceiling in a obstacle to the career success of women 48% were neutral on this point. 56 % believed that employers should hold open a women’s job past the legal mandatory time for maternity leave, but 20 % disagreed. Over 55% were in favor of onsite day care, with 28.4% neutral. 87 % either agreed or strongly agreed that a woman can successfully balance career and family. Only 4 % disagreed. Nearly 60% agreed or strongly agreed that money is the most compelling reason women stay in the workforce. 34% disagreed or strongly disagreed that most women who took a career break wish they had not; 19% agreed, with 42% neutral. 68% felt that a job or career were important for selffulfillment; 16% disagreed or strongly disagreed. 95% of those surveyed felt women are qualified to take on leadership positions. 100% of men in the original survey reported working for primary income; 75% of women did. (Since the majority of additional surveys came from college and high school students, their responses to this question were not included.) For those who took a career break, 42% felt it was difficult to resume their careers at the same level they left; 58% did not. 92% of those who took a career break were happy they returned to work. 56% of those who took a career break returned for money reasons, followed by career (36%) and boredom (8%)
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Results By Gender The Survey results are presented in Table 1. Not surprisingly, men and women had differences of opinion when it came to issues involving women in the workforce.
Table 1 Response By Gender Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree
The glass ceiling is an All:6.8 All: 36.6 All:48.0 All:6.8 All:1.5 obstacle to the career M:2.77 M:30.5 M:52.7 M:13.8 M: 0 success of women W:8.42 W:38.9 W:46.3 W:4.21 W:2.10
Employers should hold open a women’s job All:15.8 All:40.4 All:20.6 All:19.8 All:3.17 past the legal M:8.57 M:34.2 M:28.5 M:25.7 M:2.85 mandatory time given W:18.6 W:42.85 W:17.58 W:17.58 W:3.29 for maternity leave
Employers should All:23.0 All: 32.3 All:28.4 All:14.6 All:1.53 provide onsite M:14.7 M:32.3 M:23.5 M:29.4 M: 0 daycare W:26.0 W:32.2 W:30.2 W:9.3 W:2.08
A woman can All:48.3 All: 38.9 All:8.47 All:4.23 All:0 successfully balance M:25.8 M:38.7 M:22.5 M:12.9 M: 0 career and family W:56.3 W:39.0 W:3.44 W:1.14 W:0
I believe money is the All:20.7 All: 36.9 All:19.2 All:19.2 All: 3.84 most compelling M:14.7 M:38.2 M:26.4 M:17.6 M:2.94 reason women stay in the workforce W:22.9 W:36.4 W:16.6 W:19.79 W:4.16
Most women who took All:4.83 All: 19.35 All:41.9 All:29.0 All:4.83 a career break wish M:0 M:18.18 M:63.6 M:18.18 M:0 they had not W:6.59 W:19.78 W:34.0 W:32.9 W:6.59
A job or career is All:32.5 All: 35.7 All:15.4 All:12.1 All: 4.06 important for self M:36.36 M:27.27 M: 12.12 M:24.24 M: 0 fulfillment W:31.1 W:38.8 W:16.66 W:7.77 W:5.55
Women are qualified All:66.9 All:28.4 All:3.07 All:1.53 All: 0 to take on leadership M:41.77 M:47.05 M:5.88 M:5.88 M:0 role in business and government W:76.0 W:21.8 W:2.08 W:0 W:0
All: All survey respondents; M: Male respondents; F: Female respondents
While nearly 50% of females believed that the glass ceiling presents an obstacle to women, only 33% of men agreed. Significantly more women (61.4%) than men (43%) agreed that a woman’s job should be held open past mandatory maternity leave. Close to half of men and almost 60% of women were in favor of onsite childcare. In perhaps the most interesting result, while almost 100% of women believed that a woman can successfully balance career and family, just under 2/3 of men
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Glass Ceilings and Gender Gaps: A Survey agreed. Around 26% of both men and women believed that most women who took career breaks wished they had not. Interestingly, more women than men agreed that a career or job was important for selffulfillment, although slightly more men (36% versus 31%) agreed strongly. 89% of men and 98 % of women believed that women were qualified to take on leadership roles.
Chisquare tests of independence were performed relating the response distributions on the survey items to age and gender variables. Adjacent response categories were combined when necessary to avoid cells with expected counts less than 5. The results showed that men and women exhibited statistically different responses to questions 4, 6, and 8 (pvalues .003, .014, and .000 respectively). On items 4 and 8, “A woman can successfully balance career and family” and “Women are qualified to take on leadership roles in business and government”, women were significantly more likely to strongly agree with the statement. For item 6, “Most women ho took a career break wish they had not”, men were more likely to respond neutral, while women tended to either agree or disagree. No statistically important differences in responses existed between men and women for the other survey items.
The divergence in opinions on such matters as the glass ceiling, maternity leave, and balancing career and family are troubling in that male employers and female employees are likely to not see eye to eye on these important issues that so largely impact women. The results here also show that men may not fully understand that career breaks could also lead to career setbacks for women. Men may agree that women are capable of taking on leadership roles, but may believe they will have difficulty doing so. While our survey showed that more women than men valued careers as important for selffulfillment, this may reflect the young age bias in the survey, as older women were less likely to agree. Men who value careers as foremost in determining selffulfillment may not understand women who get just as much or more fulfillment from their roles at home. When this is the case, statistical discrimination may be more likely to occur.
Results By Age The survey results are presented in Table 2. An interesting inquiry we wished to research, especially given the large number of survey takers who were high school students, was whether young girls, who are just poised to enter the workforce, differ significantly in their views on the workplace environment that women face. While not yet tempered by experience, the opinions of young girls may well determine future outcomes for women who work. Results in the survey were divided between high school girls and women over the age of 40, essentially a younger and an older cohort, while overall age responses in the statistical data considered the age categories of below 20, 20 to 29, and 30 and older, and teenaged girls in comparison to older women. The high school girls were aged 17 and 18, with the older women ranging in age from 4163. 68% of the older cohort had at least a Bachelor’s Degree, with 32% holding advanced degrees. 67 % of the older women agreed that the glass ceiling was an obstacle to the career success of women; only 31 % of the high school girls agreed. High school girls were much more likely to agree (80%) than those over 40 (63%) that jobs should be held open for women past maternity leave. 6 % more of the older women agreed that employers should provide onsite daycare. While 97% of the high school females believed that a woman can successfully balance career and family, only 79% of the older women agreed. While over ¾ of women over 40 surveyed felt that money was the compelling reason women stayed in the workforce, only half of the younger women did. About ten percent more of the older women agreed that most women regretted taking career breaks. Just slightly more of the high school aged women believe a career or job is important for selffulfillment. Both groups unanimously agreed that women are qualified to take on leadership roles, with 76% of the young women agreeing strongly, compared to 58% of the women over 40.
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Table 2
Female Response By Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree Age and Career Break
The glass ceiling is an HS:6.06 HS: 24.2 HS:66.6 HS:3.03 HS:0 obstacle to the career WF:16.6 WF:50.0 WF::27.7 WF: 5.55 WF:0 success of women CB: 4.0 CB: 52.0 CB: 36.0 CB: 0 CB: 8.0
Employers should hold HS:13.8 HS: 66.6 HS:13.8 HS:5.55 HS:0 open a women’s job past WF: 15.78 WF:47.36 WF: 26.3 WF:10.52 WF:0 the legal mandatory time given for maternity leave CB:24.0 CB: 28.0 CB: 16.0 CB: 24.0 CB: 8.0
HS:17.1 HS: 40.0 HS:31.4 HS:11.4 HS:0 Employers should WF:26.3 WF:36.8 WF:36.8 WF: 0 WF: 0 provide onsite daycare CB:29.1 CB:20.83 CB:41.6 CB:8.33 CB: 0
A woman can HS:55.8 HS: 41.1 HS:2.9 HS:0 HS:0 successfully balance WF:31.57 WF :47.3 WF: 10.52 WF: 0 WF: 0 career and family CB: 52.3 CB: 42.85 CB: 4.76 CB: 4.76 CB: 0
I believe money is the HS:17.6 HS: 32.3 HS:14.7 HS:29.4 HS:5.88 most compelling WF: 38.8 WF: 38.8 WF: 11.11 WF: 5.55 WF: 5.55 reason women stay in the workforce CB:19.2 CB: 50.0 CB: 7.69 CB: 19.2 CB: 3.84
Most women who took HS:8.82 HS: 20.5 HS:41.1 HS:26.4 HS:2.94 a career break wish WF: 5.88 WF: 35.29 WF: 11.76 WF: 41.17 WF: 5.88 they had not CB: 0 CB:20.0 CB: 24.0 CB: 44.0 CB: 12.0
A job or career is HS:32.3 HS: 38.2 HS:14.7 HS:14.7 HS:0 important for self WF: 29.4 WF: 35.2 WF: 29.4 WF: 0 WF: 5.88 fulfillment CB: 30.7 CB: 38.46 CB: 15.3 CB: 0 CB: 15.3
Women are qualified to HS:76.4 HS: 23.5 HS: 0 HS: 0 HS: 0 take on leadership role in WF: 57.8 WF: 42.1 WF: 0 WF: 0 WF: 0 business and government CB: 76.9 CB: 19.2 CB: 3.84 CB: 0 CB: 0
If you took a career break: It was difficult to resume Yes = 41.6 No = 58.3 my career at the same level I left
I am happy I returned to Yes = 92.3 No = 7.69 work
The primary reason I Career = 36% Boredom = 8% Money = 56% returned to work was HS: High School Aged Women; WF: Women over age 40; CB: Women who took Career Breaks
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Results were also examined by age only, excluding gender, and are shown in Table 3. Three categories were established: teenagers, those aged 2029, and those aged 30 and over. Those over thirty were more than twice as likely as teens to believe that the glass ceiling is an obstacle to the success of women, and about a third more likely than those in their twenties to agree or strongly agree. Teens were the group most in favor of extending maternity leave, with the oldest group most strongly in favor of onsite day care. Age did not make a significant difference on the question of balancing career and family, but the two younger groups were more likely to disagree that money was the most compelling reason for women to stay in the workforce, with the oldest group most likely to give an affirmative answer to that question. Answers were evenly divided on career breaks, but teens who had an opinion tended to disagree that women regretted taking career breaks. Those over 30 were slightly more likely to believe a job or career was important for selffulfillment; more than one in 5 teens disagreed. No respondent over age 30 disagreed on the qualifications of women to take on leadership roles.
Table 3
Responses By Age Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree
The glass ceiling is an TN: 5.76 TN: 26.9 TN: 63.4 TN: 3.84 TN: 0 obstacle to the career TW: 4.44 TW: 37.7 TW: 4.22 TW: 11.1 TW: 4.44 success of women TH: 9.09 TH: 54.4 TH: 30.3 TH: 6.06 TH: 0
Employers should hold open a women’s job TN: 10.7 TN: 57.1 TN: 16.0 TN: 12.5 TN: 3.57 past the legal TW: 22.5 TW: 30 TW: 22.5 TW: 22.5 TW: 2.5 mandatory time given TH: 16.6 TH: 26.6 TH: 26.6 TH: 26.6 TH: 3.33 for maternity leave
Employers should TN: 15.7 TN: 36.8 TN: 26.3 TN: 19.2 TN: 1.75 provide onsite TW: 31.7 TW: 24.3 TW: 29.2 TW: 14.6 TW: 0 daycare TH: 25 TH: 43.75 TH: 21.8 TH: 9.37 TH: 32.0
A woman can TN: 43.3 TN: 43.3 TN: 7.5 TN: 5.66 TN: 0 successfully balance TW: 63.8 TW: 27.7 TW: 2.77 TW: 5.55 TW: 0 career and family TH: 39.2 TH: 42.8 TH: 17.8 TH: 0 TH: 0
I believe money is the TN: 19.6 TN: 39.2 TN: 13.7 TN: 23.5 TN: 3.92 most compelling TW:18.1 TW: 31.8 TW: 27.2 TW: 18.1 TW: 4.54 reason women stay in the workforce TH: 28.1 TH: 40.6 TH: 15.6 TH: 12.5 TH: 3.125
Most women who took TN: 5.66 TN: 16.9 TN: 47.1 TN: 28.3 TN: 18.8 a career break wish TW: 5.12 TW: 15.3 TW: 41.0 TW: 28.2 TW: 10.2 they had not TH: 3.22 TH: 29.0 TH: 32.3 TH: 32.2 TH: 3.22
A job or career is TN: 32.0 TN: 30.1 TN: 15.0 TN: 20.7 TN: 1.88 important for self TW: 30.7 TW: 35.8 TW: 12.8 TW: 10.2 TW: 7.69 fulfillment TH: 29.0 TH: 45.1 TH: 19.3 TH: 3.22 TH: 3.22
Women are qualified TN:66.0 TN: 30.1 TN: 1.88 TN: 1.88 TN: 0 to take on leadership TW: 70.4 TW: 20.4 TW: 6.81 TW: 2.27 TW: 0 role in business and government TH: 62.5 TH: 37.5 TH: 0 TH:0 TH: 0
TN: Teenagers; TW: Respondents aged 2029; TH: Respondents over age 30
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To establish important response differences by age in Chi Square testing, three categories were considered to determine if age was important overall in determining answers: below 20, 20 to 29, and 30 and older. The three age groups differed significantly only in their responses to item one on the glass ceiling (p value .023). For item one, the under 20 age group was more likely to disagree, the 2029 age group was closer to neutral, and the 30 and over group was more likely to agree with the statement.
In comparing the teenage girls to older women, Chi Square tests showed that older women are more likely to believe that the glass ceiling is an obstacle to the career success of women ( p value .011) and were less likely to agree that a woman’s job should be held open past maternity leave than the younger women (p value .049). These two questions were the only ones found significant in a comparison of the two age groups.
The attitude of young women as reflected by our survey respondents reflects a generation that does not see as many obstacles to success as the older group, who are more confident in their abilities to balance a career and family and take on leadership roles, and seem to see a career as being more important, and not just for money. This shift in attitude may help them to have more positive experiences in the workforce than older cohorts, the majority who took career breaks, sometimes found that returning to the workforce at the same level was difficult, and who were most likely to return to the workforce for money.
4. CONCLUSION While admittedly a small sample, our survey uncovered many important differences in opinion between men and women and between different ages of women on issues pertinent to the new role women are playing in the economy. While men are much less likely to believe the glass ceiling is an obstacle to women’s success, they are also less convinced of a women’s ability to balance career and family, and are less supportive of the ideas of extended maternity leave and onsite daycare. Younger women are less likely to believe in the glass ceiling than their older counterparts as a hindrance to career success, and seem to see their future as being one with a strong commitment to career and leadership. They see policies such as flexible maternity leave as being important in their ability to balance career and family, which they are confident that they can do. The attitudes of men in our survey, a third of whom are not confident that a women can successfully balance career and family, who are less supportive of extended maternity leaves and onsite childcare, and whom may not understand the career sacrifices career breaks often entail, would support the theory that the “glass ceiling” may indeed be real and that statistical discrimination may work against women as they try to begin or restart careers and are seen as less committed and/or capable.
Those surveyed who took a career break supported the findings of numerous studies that for many women resuming their career at the same level was difficult; yet only 20% agreed that women who took career breaks wish they had not. They believed in the ability of women to successfully balance career and family, and were nearly unanimous in their satisfaction in returning to work, even if money was the primary motivation for their return.
A rational choice approach would suggest that the willingness of women to take career breaks despite these costs suggests the benefits outweigh the penalties they may pay later when they return to the workforce. Policies that help ease the return or to shorten the time spent out of the labor force, which reduces this penalty, such as maternity leave and subsidies for childcare, may improve the “family gap” that is responsible for much of the “gender gap” that still remains. The Department of Labor projects that 51% of the labor force growth between 2004 and 2014 will be due to the participation of women. With a younger generation seemingly even more committed to market work, it is in the interest of employers and government, and both men and women, to make the workplace more accessible to those who choose to “have it all.”
REFERENCES 1. Albrecht, James. Bjorkland, Anders., and Vroman, Susan. (2007). Is There A Glass Ceiling in Sweden?. Journal of Labor Economics, 21:1, 14578. 2. Arcieri, Katie. (2007). Breaking the Glass Ceiling. The Capital, February 25, 2007, B4. 3. Arulampalam, Wiji., Booth, Alison L., and Bryan, Mark L.. (2007). Is There A Glass Ceiling Over Europe? Exploring the Gender Pay Gap Across the Wage Distribution. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 60:2, 163185 4. Arun, Shoba., Arun, Thankom., and Booroah, Vani. (2004). The Effect of Career Breaks on the Working Lives of Women. Feminist Economics, 10:1, 6584. 5. Baker, Joe G. (2003). Glass Ceilings or Sticky Floors? A Model of HighIncome Law Graduate. Journal of Labor Research, 24:4, 695712.
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6. Badal, Jaclyne.(2006). Surveying the Field/Cracking the Glass Ceiling. Wall Street Journal, June, 19, 2006, B.3 7. Becker, Gary. (1985). Human Capital, Effort, and the Sexual Division of Labor. Journal of Labor Economics, 3:1, S5358. 8. Bolte, C.Clint. (2006). Time to Break Through The Glass Ceiling. The Seybold Report, May 30, 2006, 1415. 9. Blau, David. and Robins, Philip. (1988). ChildCare Costs and Family Labor Supply. Review of Economics and Statistics, 70, 374381. 10. Blau, Francine. and Kahn, Lawrence. (1997). Swimming Upstream: Trends in the Gender Wage Differential in the 1980s. Journal of Labor Economics, 1:1, 142. 11. Bowling, Cynthia J., Kelleher, Christine A., Jones, Jennifer., and Wright, Deli S. (2006). Cracked Ceilings, Firmer Floors, and Weakened Walls: Trends and Patterns in Gender Representation among Executives Leading American State Agencies, 19702000. Public Administration Review, 66:6, 82337. 12. Budig, Michelle. and England, Paula. (2001). The Wage Penalty for Motherhood. American Sociological Review, 66, 204 225. 13. Connelly, Rachel. (1992). The Effect of Child Care Costs on Married Women’s Labor Force Participation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74:1, 8390. 14. Bureau of Labor Statistics, (2005), Women in the Labor Force: A Databook. 15. Bureau of Labor Statistics, (2005), Women in the Labor Force in 2005. Accessed February 19, 2007. 16. Bureau of Labor Statistics, (2007). Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers: Fourth Quarter 2006. 17. Connell, Raewyn. (2006). Glass Ceilings or Gendered Institutions? Mapping the Gender Regimes of Public Sector Worksites. Public Administration Review, 66:6, 837850. 18. Davies, Rhys. and Pierre, Gaelle. (2005). The Family Gap in Pay in Europe: A CrossCountry Study. Labour Economics, 12:4, 469486. 19. The Economist, (2005). The Conundrum of the Glass Ceiling. 376:8436, 6365. 20. Gang, Ira N., LandonLane, John., and Yun, MyeongSu. (2003). Does the Glass Ceiling Exist?: A CrossNational Perspective on Gender Income Mobility. Rutgers University Economics Working Papers. 21. Hertz, Noreena. (2006). Come On, Get Your Sledgehammers Out. New Statesman, August 7, 2006, 20. 22. Hewlett, Sylvia Ann. (2002). Executive Women and the Myth of Having it All. Harvard Business Review, 80:4, 6673. 23. Hewlett, Sylvia Ann. and Luce, Carolyn Buck. (2005). OffRamps and OnRamps. Harvard Business Review, 83:7/8, 184 185. 24. Hymowitz, Carol. (2004). While Some Women Choose to Stay Home, Others Gain Flexibility. Wall Street Journal, March 30, 2004, B1. 25. Hymowitz, Carol. (2006). Women Swell Ranks of Middle Managers, But Are Scarce at Top. Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2006, B1. 26. Joshi, Heather., Paci, Pierella., and Waldfogel, Jane. (1999). The Wages of Motherhood: Better or Worse? Cambridge Journal of Economics, 23:5, 543564. 27. Kee, Hiau Joo. (2006). Glass Ceiling or Sticky Floor? Exploring the Australian Gender Pay Gap. Economic Record, 82:258, 408428. 28. Korenman, Sanders., & Neumark, David. (1992). Marriage, Motherhood, and Wages. The Journal of Human Resources, 27:2, 233255. 29. Lundberg, Shelly. and Rose, Elaina. (2000). Parenthood and the earnings of married men and women. Labour Economics, 7:6, 689710. 30. Martin, Arthur. (2007). Women Still Battling to Break Through Glass Ceiling. Sunday Territorian, January 21, 2007, 19. 31. McDowell, John M., Singell, Larry D., and Ziliak, James P. (1999). Crack in the Glass Ceiling: Gender and Promotion in the Economics Profession. The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Eleventh Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, 89:2, 392396. 32. Mincer, Jacob. Ofek, Haim. (1982). Interrupted Work Careers: Depreciation and Restoration of Human Capital. Journal of Human Resources, 17:1, 324. 33. Mincer, Jacob. and Polachek, Solomon. (1974). Family Investments in Human Capital: Earnings of Women. Journal of Political Economy, 82:2, 76108. 34. Pope, Justin. (2007). Harvard Poised to Name Woman President A High Profile Crack in the Glass Ceiling. Associated Press, February 9, 2007. 35. Rothberg, Deborah. (2006). Tach’s Glass Ceiling Shows Some Cracks. eWeek, June 19, 2006, 26. 36. Schweitzer, Tamara. (2007). U.S. Policies on Maternity Leave ‘Among the Worst. Inc.com, February 16, 2007. 37. Seid, Jessica. (2006). 10 Bestpaid Executives: They’re All Men. CNN Money.com, October 10, 2006. 38. Summers, Lawrence H. (1989). Some Simple Economics of Mandated Benefits. American Economic Review, 79:2, 177 183.
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39. Spivey, Cynthia. (2005). Time Off at What Price? The Effects of Career Interruptions on Earnings. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 59:1, 119140. 40. Story, Louise. (2005). Many Women At Elite Colleges Set Career Path To Motherhood. The New York Times, September 20, 2005, A1. 41. Virzi, Anna Marie. (2006). Women CIOs: How To Smash the Glass Ceiling. eWeek, December 20, 2006. 42. Waldfogel, Jane. (1995). The Price of Motherhood: Family Status and Women’s Pay in a Young British Cohort. Oxford Economic Papers, 47:4, 584610. 43. Waldfogel, Jane. (1997). The Effect of Children on Women’s Wages. American Sociological Review, 62:2, 209217. 44. Waldfogel, Jane. (1998A). The Family Gap For Young Women in the United States and Britain; Can Maternity Leave Make A Difference? Journal of Labor Economics, 16:3, 505546. 45. Waldfogel, Jane. (1998B). Understanding The “Family Gap” In Pay For Women With Children. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12:1, 137156. 46. Wirth, Linda. (1998). Women in management: Closer to breaking through the glass ceiling? International Labour Review, 131:1, 93102.
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Body Art: The Question of Hiring Employees with Visible Body Art
BODY ART: THE QUESTION OF HIRING EMPLOYEES WITH VISIBLE BODY ART
William. J. Carnes and Nina RadojevichKelley Metropolitan State College of Denver, USA
ABSTRACT In many cases today, body art seems to be becoming more acceptable throughout society in general. However, the same connection does not seem to be occurring in the workplace. In this paper, the authors address three perspective questions of body art; 1) Although corporate culture changes over time, does it necessarily change as often as it should? 2) Have corporate dress codes been affected by body art in the workplace? 3) Is it discrimination if employers do not hire applicants with visible body art? For the purpose of this article, the authors define body art as any tattoos, brands or piercings not natural to the human body that individuals add as a decoration or statement. Although sometimes synonymous with the younger generation, body art is a practice among all generations. In fact, some older people are using body art as a means of applying permanent beauty procedures. One clear indication of a cultural shift in attitudes about body art is the increased prevalence of body art made for children. Currently, there are a number of temporary tattoos available for children in a number of popular characters, such as famous cartoon and children’s movie characters. In addition, the authors explore some of the legal cases and religious accommodations surrounding body art. The authors conclude the article by suggesting some guidelines for managers to help ensure that they are implementing legal and favorable policies regarding body art.
Keywords: Body Art, Tattoos, Discrimination, Generations, Workplace
BODY ART: THE QUESTION OF HIRING EMPLOYEES WITH VISIBLE BODY ART Body Art—is it a fad, or a cultural shift? Historically, body art was visible among select demographic subgroups of society. However, today, body art is no longer restricted to one particular demographic group; instead, it has become mainstream in modern culture (Wohlrab, Stahl & Kappleler, 2007). Due to this phenomenon, it is important for managers to acknowledge and understand the changing cultural needs of the workforce; more specifically, in the area of changing attitudes toward body art in relation to dress code standards in the workplace. The intent of this article is to address the following research questions: 1) Although corporate culture changes over time, does it necessarily change as often as necessary? 2) Have corporate dress codes been affected by body art in the workplace? 3) Is it discrimination if employers do not hire applicants with visible body art? For the purpose of this article, the authors define body art as any tattoos, brands or piercings not natural to the human body that individuals add as a decoration or statement.
THE BODY ART MOVEMENT From an early age, people learn to differentiate between others by assessing their appearance. People perceive some aspects of appearance as acceptable, while objecting to other aspects. Although the intent of learning to differentiate is not to create biases, people do create biases as part of the maturing process. “Unfortunately, many of us tend to believe that there is an objective reality and that all of our perceptions are accurate in understanding that reality” (Hoffman, Krahnke & Bell, n. d.). As a result, people make decisions about others using preconceived, and sometimes stereotypical, ideas that they develop. For example, when individuals observe body art on others, they may stereotype them as risk takers, carefree, risqué, socially marginal, using poor judgment, impulsive, subject to peer pressure, fashion forward, cool or trendy (Armstrong, Roberts, Owen & Koch 2004). These perceptions can lead individuals to draw inaccurate assumptions and conclusions about others.
Historical Perspective Body art, such as tattooing and body piercing, dates back thousands of years (Armstrong, 2005). “Humans have in fact been adorning themselves with tattoos, piercings, paint, scars and other forms of permanent and semipermanent ornamentations for tens of thousands of years” (LaFee, 2006). In 1991, in the Austrian Alps, archeologists discovered a 5000yearold Iceman who had at least 57 tattoos covering his body (LaFee, 2006). Ancient Celts permanently painted their bodies with
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W. J. Carnes and N. Radojevich-Kelley Volume 7 – Fall 2009 extracts from the mustard plant family. In the South Pacific, tattooing is a common practice among Tahitian cultures. In fact, many believe that the word “tattoo” was derived from the Tahitian word “tatau”, meaning “to mark something” (LaFee, 2006; www.designboom.com). Various artifacts indicate that the Japanese culture was practicing body art as far back as 3000 BC. Throughout history, people displayed body art for various reasons and its use had the support of many cultures around the world. Historically, we know that “every known culture has pursued some kind of body ornamentation” (LaFee, 2006). Today, society observes an increase in the number of people practicing some form of body art.
Some people believe that the increase in body art is a result of the Punk movement during the latter part of the 20th century (Wojcik, 1995). Punks used tattooing, body piercings and other adornments to display their disaffiliation with mainstream society. Much like previous youth subcultures, the exotic use of body art soon became more acceptable by other groups and assimilated into the more dominant cultures, making it fashion more than fad (Wojcik, 1995).
Motivation Behind Body Art The motivation behind why someone would partake in body art varies from person to person and among different cultures. Perhaps the most common reason is selfexpression and aesthetical reasons. “A 2004 Harris poll found 34 percent of Americans thought tattoos made them appear sexy and 29 percent thought they made them attractive” (LaFee, 2006). In some cultures, the use of piercings in the nose, ears and lips portray social rank, wealth and importance. Other cultures carve out symbols, numbers and designs in their skin to display social status, tribal relations and the number of enemies killed in battle. In the past, aristocrats in Britain used tattoos to differentiate themselves from the lower class.
Historically, cultures were more accepting and encouraged the use of traditional tattoos to display spiritual beliefs, norms and values. However, recent motivations behind body art differ vastly from those of the past. For example, today a young teen may select an intricate tattoo of an ancient Celt symbol simply because it is cool, instead of displaying a spiritual belief or displaying the belief that it reflects the complexity people experience in life. Today’s youth seem to embrace body art to show that they have control of their own personal body (Forbes, 2001). In addition, individuals today use body art because they like the look or the design of the tattoo (Forbes, 2001). In contrast, older surveys found rebellion as a common and strong motivation behind the use of body art. According to a recent study conducted by Armstrong et al. (2004), the most common reason cited for using body art was to portray uniqueness, selfexpression, and to feel more attractive.
Body Art and the Youth There is a strong prevalence of body art among young individuals. According to a recent study, 51 percent of college students have piercings and 23 percent have tattoos (Mayers & Chiffriller, 2008). In fact, a recent study concluded that piercing and tattooing were “mainstream” among the 1823 year old population (Mayers, Judelson, Mortiarty & Rudell, 2002). The consensus seems to be that the prevalence of body art is among young people. Another study, conducted by Pew Research Center, found that 36 percent of 1825 year olds and 40 percent of 2640 year olds have at least one tattoo (Osburn, 2007). They also found that 30 percent of 1825 year olds and 22 percent of 2640 year olds had at least one piercing other than in their ear lobe. Colbert (2008) cites, “the National Education Association reports that 1520 percent of schoolage students are tattooed, or pierced, or both…” and a 2007 report by Kloppenburg and Maessen, found that an estimated, “51 percent of collegeage individuals in the United States have multiple ear piercing or other forms of body piercing or tattoos” (Colbert, 2008).
Interestingly, the reasons why individuals use body art may be changing. While previous studies mentioned rebellion or rejection of social standard as a key motivator, the most common reasons given for using body art currently are to display control over one’s body, to decorate, or make ones self more attractive or sexy (Forbes, 2001; Armstrong et al., 2004). This is another clear indication that society is more accepting of body art among the youth, which more than likely will spill over into society as a whole.
Body Art and Beauty Since people in the US have an exorbitant fascination with beauty and appearance, it may be some other aspect about an individual that causes us to form our positive or negative opinion about that individual. Baby Boomers, Gen Xers and Gen Yers all use selfexpression in different ways and body art is one of those selfexpressions (Brooks, 2006). “More females, middleclass, and educated individuals participate in tattooing as compared to previous generations, when prisoners, thugs, soldiers, freaks, and gangs were clumped together as the dominant users of tattoos (Colbert, 2008). Specifically, it appears as though women are more inclined to participate in tattooing and piercing than are men (Schulz, Karshin & Woodiel, 2006). An
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Body Art: The Question of Hiring Employees with Visible Body Art estimated 40 percent of males and 60 percent of females have piercings and 23 percent of both groups have tattoos (Armstrong et al., 2004). One study found that after the youth, the fastest growing groups of people with tattoos are women over the age of 50 (LaFee, 2006).
Appearance does make a difference to some, whether in the private sector, in the military or in some other public sector employment. Advertisements are on television and other media on a daily basis that tell the public how they should look. People are too fat or too thin, they have too much hair or too little hair, they have too many wrinkles or they need to purchase a specific product to make them look older. Add that to the advertisements for cosmetic tattooing, or permanent makeup for personal beautification (Armstrong, 2005), and it is no wonder that teens and young adults are increasing their body art practices. In addition, there are television shows and movies that portray body art as a good thing. Although they may not come right out and say that body art is good, the fact that the hero or heroine has body art implies that it is good; especially, when the professional reviewers make comments about how sexy or attractive the hero or heroine looks in the film. In addition, “the public media tends to portray body art procurement as risqué and carefree behavior” (Armstrong et al., 2004), which adds to the desirability of body art. An increase in the use of body art by Hollywood stars, top athletes and other opinion leaders whom the media scrutinizes and promotes as desirable, beautiful and hip also adds to the dilemma (Wohlrab et al., 2007) . The increased use of body art has also infiltrated and spilled into the general population and more importantly into the workplace, as workers tend to consider tattoos and piercings as hip or trendy (Colbert, 2008).
CHANGING ATTITUDES ABOUT BODY ART As explained earlier, tattoos and other forms of body art went from being taboo, to being trendy, then widely accepted and finally to being desirable (Forbes, 2001; Armstrong 1991; Mayers & Chiffriller, 2008, Wohlrab et al., 2007). Historically, body art participants were thought to be perverts, psychopaths, prostitutes, psychotics, rebels, anti social, aggressive, deviants, risk takers, gang members, military people, educationally marginal, someone with poor judgment, impulsive, intoxicated, unhealthy and unwanted people (Wohlrab et al., 2007; Carrol, Riffenburgh, Roberts & Myhre, 2002; Forbes, 2001). Today, people do not view body art with such negativity. In fact, “…traditional stereotypes that body modifications are indicators of social or personal pathology does not describe the contemporary…” views (Forbes, 2001). Beginning in the late 1960’s, popular stereotypes and attitudes about body art began to shift (Sanders, 1989). Today, more people tend to view body art participants as “artists,” trendy, “not just for bikers,” not associated with alcohol, but are planned in advance and are rarely motivated by rebellion; they view them as a fashion accessory, as attractive expressions of individuality, and to distinguish one’s self from others (Wohlrab et al, 2007; Armstrong & Pace, 1997; Bell, 1999).
Another clear indication of a cultural shift in attitudes about body art is the increased prevalence of body art made for children. Currently, there are a number of temporary tattoos available for children in a number of popular characters, such as famous cartoon and children’s movie characters. In addition, well established toy manufacturers are using body art to revitalize and extend the product life cycles of their aging toys. For example, Mattel launched a new Spring 2009 Toy Line that includes a “Totally ‘Stylin’ Tattoos” Barbie. Apparently, the everpopular Barbie has a new look that includes a permanent butterfly tattoo on her shoulder and comes with a tattoo gun that enables children to stamp new washable tattoos on the Barbie or themselves. This is a new look for the 50 year old Barbie and is yet another indicator of a mainstream acceptance of body art in society, which Mattel appears to be capitalizing on (http://cbs5.com). Furthermore, the fact that our children’s toys are sporting new looks that include body art is indicative of the tremendous cultural shift in acceptance of body art. Lastly, the fact the Mattel refers to the new Barbie as the “Totally ‘Stylin’ Tattoo Barbie” clearly establishes that tattoos are no longer taboo in our culture, but are now stylish. As a side note, Mattel has had early success with the new Barbie and the toy has sold out in various stores nationwide (http://cbs5.com).
The question then is whether the acceptance of body art by mainstream society is an indication that employers should also accept the same body art. After all, employers see the need to maintain a certain image for the organization, and body art may contradict that image. People often judge professionalism on appearance. Therefore, employers who hire employees with body art may find that customers deem the company unprofessional. For example, customers may have a different view of an employee with body art depending upon whether the individual is working in a fastfood restaurant or in a more professional setting such as a bank. It may result in either an acceptance or rejection of the person’s appearance and the business itself. In turn, the company may lose customers with negative views of body art. If a customer views body art as mainstream within the culture, he or she may be more prone to purchase the company’s products if their employees display body art. On the other hand, a customer who opposes body art may refrain from purchasing the company’s products if employees display body art. In the longterm, body art may positively or negatively affect the organization.
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Tolerance of Body Art in the Workplace Although researchers can trace body art to ancient times, and it has been common among certain groups for many years (Armstrong, 2005), the latter part of the twentieth century brought about a significant increase in the use of body art in American culture (Mayers & Chiffriller, 2008, Colbert, 2008; Osborn, 2007; Wojcik, 1995). As a result, the face of American youth is changing and the workforce may need to change with it. According to recent findings (Armstrong, 2005), more than half of American youth have some form of body art. As a result, employers are starting to consider their dress code policies more carefully (Thier, 2007). For example, some employers are starting to relax dress code policies to accommodate the new trend and to target younger workers (Deseret Morning News, 2006). However, other employers are tightening their dress codes to limit visible body art in the workplace.
The question that arises is should employer dress codes follow suit with the increasing acceptance of body art by American society. Edgar Schein (1999, p. 12) postulates that within organizations, there is a “…need to identify those cultural elements that may be increasingly dysfunctional as external environmental conditions change.” Business leaders and small business owners need to consider whether the increased occurrences of body art are an indicator that culture is changing. If that is the case and the organization’s external environment—in this case, the culture’s wider acceptance of body art—is changing, should the manager’s view of body art change as well?
“While managers are entitled to expect their staff—especially those who are seen by clients—to adopt smart business dress, heightened sensitivity over inadvertent religious or cultural discrimination can make rigid dress codes a minefield for the unwary HR professional” (Matthews, 2007). Even though there is a desire to have and create a diverse workforce, many companies are drawing the line when it comes to diversity in appearance, such as body art. The question that a business faces is where the law falls. Historically, businesses had very loose and general dress code policies. Today, more businesses are creating formal dress code policies and adding new rules to keep body art covered up. Employers feel they need to be very, very specific when it comes to dress codes, specifically dress codes dealing with body tattoos and piercings. Even with the prevalence of body art becoming mainstream among our youth, it is still not widely accepted in the workplace. Nearly 85% of respondents on Vault.com felt that body art impedes an individual’s chance of finding a job (Osburn, 2007). In addition, nearly 16% of employers have established some type of body art policy for the workplace (Osburn, 2007). The consensus is that even though body art is gaining in popularity, culturally, and especially among the youth, it is still not widely accepted in the business world. This is indicative that corporate culture is not changing at the same rate as society’s culture is changing. This could cause longterm problems in the corporate world because our society and culture is changing while the workforce’s attitudes, values and beliefs remain constant and dated. Eventually, more and more of the youth will infiltrate upper level management and their attitudes and beliefs may force corporate culture to shift and accept new norms, values and standards that are more in harmony with society’s views.
As do private sector employers, the US Army has its own brand of appearance standards. Army regulations (AR) address both weight and body art in the discussion of appearance. For example, “the Army is a uniformed service where discipline is judged, in part, by the manner in which a soldier wears a prescribed uniform, as well as by individual personal appearance” (AR 6701, 2005). The regulation goes on to discuss appearance expectations, but does make some exceptions for religious practices. The regulation prohibits tattoos and brands on the head, face and neck (above the dress uniform collar line), as well as tattoos and brands that are derogatory in nature or may symbolize gangs or extremist groups (AR 6701, 2005). If a soldier has a tattoo or brand that is inappropriate for good order and discipline, Commanders will ensure the soldier understands the Army policy and will provide guidance to the soldier to seek medical advice for the removal or alteration of the tattoo or brand. Although Commanders cannot force a soldier to remove or alter an inappropriate tattoo or brand, a soldier’s refusal to comply with the Army policy will result in discharge from the service (AR 6701, 2005). This is an example of intolerance of certain inappropriate types of body art in the workplace, but displays an acceptance of body art in general.
When is it Discrimination? The third question posed by the researchers asks, is it discrimination if employers chose not to hire applicants who display body art. Currently, no legislation protects individuals with body art from discrimination. “…Tattoos are generally regarded as personal selfexpression and not the type of speech or expressive conduct that would warrant first amendment protection” (Baker, 2007, p. 28), nor does body art, by its self, fit the criteria for protection under the fourteenth amendment (Baker, 2007). In fact, if an employer asks employees to cover their body art during work hours it is not considered discrimination unless the company makes a difference between sexes or does not make reasonable accommodations due to religious beliefs or for health reasons (Jesperson v. Harrah, 2006; Burger Chain, 2005). As younger workers attain management level positions there may be a demand for looser policies on body art and dress codes. This is simply because more youth participate in
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Body Art: The Question of Hiring Employees with Visible Body Art body art, hold vastly different views about it and are more comfortable with it. The younger workers do not have the same stereotypes in regards to body art, as do older generation workers. Thus, in the future the younger management teams may not feel the need to demand that the workforce cover up body art or feel that body art is an issue to be concerned with when hiring future employees.
Religious Accommodation From a more practical perspective, body art may have some religious or other protections under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. “Title VII requires an employer, once on notice that a religious accommodation is needed, to reasonably accommodate an employee whose sincerely held religious belief, practice, or observance conflicts with a work requirement, unless doing so would pose an undue hardship. Under Title VII, the undue hardship defense to providing religious accommodation requires a showing that the proposed accommodation in a particular case poses a ‘more than de minimis’ cost or burden” (EEOC). Although there are no specific ties to body art and religion, some religious practices do include the use of body art. Additionally, the EEOC does not require an individual to be a member of an organized church to use the protections of Title VII with religious beliefs (Zachary, 2005). Employers will need to deal with reasonable accommodation on a casebycase basis because there are too many variables to consider before providing a list of what is or is not reasonable.
Guidelines for Employers Organizations create dress codes to establish professionalism in the workplace. When creating dress codes, Managers need to be aware of discrimination, religious accommodation and the growing acceptance of selfexpression through body art. The following are suggestions to consider when creating a dress code:
Beware of your target customers and their generational perspectives on body art when establish dress codes Establish a clear and concise dress code and make employees aware of the dress code at the beginning of their employment Include a list of what the organization considers acceptable and unacceptable forms of body art Publish existing dress codes and any changes to the policies in a manner that makes them easily accessible to all employees and easily understood Have new employees read and sign the dress code during employee orientation and stress compliance with the dress code Apply the dress code in a uniform and consistent manner Address all requests for religious and other accommodations on an individual basis, keeping the organization’s image in mind. A reasonable accommodation may be to require that the employee cover or remove the body art while at work, unless that is a violation of their religious practice Avoid being vague in the dress code, as it can lead to more problems in the future Thoroughly explain the importance of dress code policies and why employee image is crucial to the organization.
CONCLUSION This article provides some useful insight for management practitioners in helping them to understand the complexities of corporate policies, especially in regards to body art. Having an understanding of the historical significance of body art, along with the current trends and views, better prepares managers for creating nondiscriminatory policies concerning body art in the workplace. The authors define body art as any tattoos, brands or piercings that are not natural to the human body, which individuals add to their bodies as a decoration or statement.
Conducting research for this article brought about other questions on this topic and areas to study in the future. Primarily, 1) how long will the lack of tolerance for body art in the workplace last; and 2) as the new generations (X’s and Y’s) gain managerial roles, will there be a more relaxed view on body art in the future? The authors are currently conducting further qualitative and quantitative studies concerning the issue body art and its acceptance in the workplace.
REFERENCES Armstrong, M.L. (1991). “Careeroriented woman with tattoos image.” Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 23, 215220. Armstrong, M.L. & Pace, M.K.M. (1997). “Tattooing: Another adolescent risk behavior warranting health education.” Applied Nursing Research 10: 181.
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Armstrong, M. L., Roberts, A. E., Owen, D. C. & Koch, J. R. (2004). “Contemporary college students and body piercing.” Journal of Adolescent Health 35(1): 58. Armstrong, M. L. (2005). “Tattooing, body piercing, and permanent cosmetics: A historical and current view of state regulations, with continuing concern.” Journal of Environmental Health. 67(8): 38. Retrieved December 30, 2008, from: http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=820309061&sid=4&Fmt=3&clientId=5728&RQT=309&VName=PQD Army Regulation 6701, Wear and appearance of the military uniform. (2005) Washington: Department or the Army. Baker, L. A. (2007, February). “Regulating matter of appearance: Tattoos and other body art. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin. 76(2): 2532. Retrieved February 3, 2009, from Academic OneFile via Gale: http://0 find.galegroup.com.skyline.cudenver.edu:80/itx/start.do?prodId=AONE Bell, S. (1999). “Tattooed: A participants observer’s exploration of meaning.” Journal of Popular Culture, 22, 5358. Brooks, D. (2006). “Nonconformity is skin deep. The New York Times. (August 27, 2006, Sunday). Burger Chain to pay $150,000 to resolve EEOC religious discrimination suit. (2005). Retrieved from: http://www.eeoc.gov/press/91605. Carrol, S.T., Riffenburgh, R.H., Roberts, T.A., & Myhre, E.B. (2002). “Tattoos and body piercings as indicators of adolescent risktaking behaviors.” Pediatrics. 109(60) 10211037. CBS. (2009). “Some parents not too happy with ‘tattoo barbie’.” Retrieved March 5, 2009 from http://cbs5.com/consumer/barbie.tattoo.mattel.2.950549.html. Colbert, R. (2008). “Teacher candidate fashion, tattoos, and piercings: Finding balance and common sense.” Childhood Education, 84(3) 158C. Retrieved December 30, 2008 from: http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1440054161&sid=4&Fmt=3&clientId=5728&RQT=309&VName=PQD Desert Morning News. (2006). “As body art gets popular, workplace dress codes get a second.” Retrieved February 3, 2009 from: (http://0global.factiva.skyline.cudenver.edu/aa/default.aspx?pp=Print&hc=Publication EEOC—The Office of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. “Questions and answers: Religious discrimination in the workplace.” Retrieved December 30, 2008, from: http://www.eeoc.gov/policy/docs/qanda_religion.html Forbes, G.B. (2001). “College students with tattoos and piercings: Motives, family experiences, personality factors, and perception by others.” Psychological Reports. 89(3) 774788. Hoffman, D. L., Krahnke, K. & Bell, J. (n. d.). “Appearance discrimination and small business. Unpublished manuscript. Jespersen v. Harrah’s Operating Company 444 F. 3d 1104, 9th Cir. Ct. App. (2006). Lautman, V. (1994). The new tattoo. New York: Abbreville Press. Lafee, S. (2006). “Skin Deep: The history and meaning of body art is hardly superficial.” Retrieved February 3, 2009 from http://0global.factiva.com.skyline.cudenver.edu/aa/default.aspx?pp=Print&hc=Publication Matthews, V. (2007). “Spotlight on…body art.” Personnel Today, 2(3) 35. Retrieved February 3, 2009, from: http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1372502411&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=5728&RQT=309&VName=PQD Mayers, L.B. & Chiffriller, S.H. (2008). “Body art (body piercing and tattooing) among undergraduate university students: ‘Then and Now’.” Journal of Adolescent Health. 42 201203. Mayers, L.B., Judelson, D.A., Mortiarty, B.W., & Rundell, K.W. (2002). “Prevalence of body art (body piercing and tattooing) in university undergraduates and incidence of medical complications. Mayo Clinic Proc. 77, 2934. Osburn, L. (2007). “No ink at INC. – Tattoos have left more of a mark on mainstream, but body art still isn’t an acceptable accessory in workplace dress code.” The Star Ledger. Retrieved February 3, 2009, from http://o global.factiva.com.skyline.cudenver.edu/aa/default.aspx?pp=Print&hc=Publication) Sanders, C.R. (1989). Customizing the body: the art and culture of tattooing. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press. Schein, E. H. (1999). The corporate culture survival guide. San Francisco: JosseyBass. Schulz, J., Karshin, C. & Woodiel, D. K. (2006). “Body art: The decision making process among college students. American Journal of Health Studies. 21(1/2): 123. Retrieved December 30, 2008, from: http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1286495411&sid=4&Fmt=3&clientId=5728&RQT=309&VName=PQD Thier, K. (2007), “Workplace rules vary on display of body art.” The News & Observer Publication Company. Retrieved on February 3, 2009, from: http://0global.factiva.com.skyline.cudenver.edu/aa/default.aspx?pp=Print&hc=Publication Wohlrab, S., Stahl, J. & Kappeler, P. (2007). “Modifying the body: Motivations for getting tattooed and pierced.” Body Image. (4): 8795. Retrieved February 3, 2009, from www.sciencedirect.com. Wojcik, D. (1995). Punk and neotribal body art. Jackson: University of Mississippi Press. Zachary, M. K. (March 2005). “Body piercings and religious discrimination.” SuperVision, 66(3) 23. Retrieved December 30, 2008, from: http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb&did=805603401&sid=11&Fmt=3&clinetId=5728&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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United States versus Japan: Are there Myths Associated with Cross-Cultural Sales Negotiations?
UNITED STATES VERSUS JAPAN: ARE THERE MYTHS ASSOCIATED WITH CROSSCULTURAL SALES NEGOTIATIONS?
J.D. Williams Kutztown University, USA
ABSTRACT This paper will address the cultural aspects of Japanese salespersons conducting business negotiations and compared that experience to that of the American salespersons. Through studying the unique differences between cultures, it has been revealed that, in today’s business environment of complex, highly competitive structures, more effective forms of negotiations will play a vital role in the 21st century selling processes. Such forms of negotiations will likely be even more critical to apply while negotiating in foreign environments.
Keywords: U.S. & Japan: Selling via CrossCultural Sales Negotiation
PURPOSE This research will show that American sales teams selling in Japan necessitate crosscultural extended knowledge of key elements unique to the Japanese culture. These learned factors are necessary in order to produce a victorious sales negotiation. Research collected and disseminated in this paper will seek to explain these negotiation styles and deficiencies between American and Japanese selling negotiation techniques. This research takes on a novel approach through its synthesis of comprehensive reports and manuscripts of crosscultural, negotiations, and sales material to derive a selling concept for U.S. salespersons.
BUSINESS NEGOTIATIONS AND CULTURE Based upon my consulting experience in Japan and the U.S., I would categorize business negotiations requiring 5 distinct steps:
1. Impression Formation Accuracy initial contact between negotiators 2. Interpersonal Attraction the immediate facetoface impressions influenced by the feelings of attraction or liking between the buyer and seller 3. Exchange of Information defines the participants’ needs and expectations 4. Communication of Persuasion the ability to verbally move one’s position forward 5. Concessions and Agreement the final stage involving compromise and, building toward agreement
Within a typical domestic setting, each of these five negotiation stages will necessitate a thorough understanding of both party’s roles, perceptive or intuitive reasoning, institutional and/or individual goals, vested interest, and hidden agendas. When the setting takes on a global perspective, the stages become less clear muddied by cultural dynamics that set their own agendas, negotiation conditions, priorities and process. If this were not troubling enough, consider two nations that may share in their quest for industrial might but are as culturally different as different could be. Here lies the heightened negotiation condition between Japan and the Unites States.
It is safe to assume that, as in most nationstates, cultural values and beliefs are important towards many, if not all aspects of life. In terms of the subculture, business and management in particular, the overriding philosophy is created to mimic one’s personal value and belief system acquired from the larger elements of their national origin. Research has shown that this is indeed the case in Japanese management. Values are deeply ingrained, stable in nature, and a relatively permanent part of a person's inner self. Business managers, either individually or collectively, make culturallydriven decisions that are influenced by their country’s values (Giacomino, 1999).
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Both overt and hidden elements of one’s culture can present complex actions or responses to foreign or unknown stimuli human or nonhuman. The comfortable one is with his/her situation and human interactions, the more likely their best cultural attributes will come forth. Of course, the opposite would likely foster opposing, if not uncomfortable, reactions. Misunderstandings during crosscultural business discussions can occur for any one of four reasons — differences in: 1) Language and language behaviors; 2) Nonverbal behaviors; 3) Values; and 4) Decision processes (Graham, 1986).
National culture tends to umbrella its subcultures including its systems of health, education, welfare, entertainment, recreation, socialization, as well as its business conduct. As such, an assessment of Japan’s country culture is likely to reflect the attitudes, behaviors, aesthetics, religious beliefs, moralities, and ethical conduct of its business culture. Both the components of culture in addition to the facets of negotiation are important foundation elements for the research work found in this text.
JAPAN VERSUS AMERICAN BUSINESS CULTURAL DIFFERENCES The term, ‘Haji’ is the intense shame that the Japanese feel when objectives are not achieved or norms are not observed. ‘Tatemae’ (things as they are made to appear) refers to the facesaving, harmonycreating syndrome that permeates all aspects of Japanese life. The term, ‘Honne’ refers to things the way they really are, particularly the communication of one's honest perceptions and beliefs. All of these life determining aspects are conditioned by the Shinto notion of national divinity and counterchecked by a paucity of natural resources. These societal control systems shape Japan's approach to business. They identify the relationship between superior and inferior; they help explain wealth and economic expansion as a national imperative; and they help shape the role of women, the importance of the group, and the nature of selfsacrifice. Additionally, they provide much of the underpinning for the success of Japanese business (Maher, 1994).
Japanese people will often refer to each other by following the last name with “san”. In addition, bowing is common as a mark of respect dealing with Japanese business people (Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), 1991). Although seemingly a simple act of respect, these actions frame a deepseated behavioral pattern that impacts Japanese business practices as well as their sales techniques, particularly that of negotiations. The aforementioned cultural moray may seem somewhat manageable for most foreigner business persons (sometimes referred to as gaijins) to adjust to but maybe, not so easy to adjust to these additional behavioral and institutional facets:
Individual vs. group oriented meetings and decision processes; Social and subtle ethnic class distinctions; Aversion towards women in sales positions; Selected differences in buyerseller styles of communication, reporting and stature; Differences in motivational environment and motivating factors; Differences in sales force compensation; Differences in job satisfaction and time management; Distinctly longterm generational cultural philosophy towards multiyear planning as compared to seeking short term results; Cultural discrimination, heightened egotisms and nationalized separatism; An ideological excessive focus towards manufacturing excellence; and An uncanny sense of humbled religious essence towards their existence and the existence of other Japanese. Genestre, et al. (1995). What does Marketing really mean to the Japanese. Marketing Intelligence & Planning. Bradford.
Many, if not most of these elements were/are factored into Japanese sales person’s daily business lives, which understandably influence their thoughts and communications with American business persons. Alan Goldman wrote in his well recognized book, Doing Business with the Japanese, “To the Japanese, many American business leaders are too obvious and prominent about their success by flaunting their many material possessions. The Japanese tend to be more subtle and refined about the issue. The greatest issue found in doing business with Japan is communicating with the Japanese host in an effective manner. Many managers have no choice but to consider a ‘radical cultural transformation’ if the wish to be successful. They must forget everything they know about ‘Americanized approaches’ to business and relearn their expertise within the context of Japans protocol (Goldman, 1994, pg. 22).” These perceptions markedly draw distinct lines between the cultural mind sets of Japanese and American business persons.
Overcoming cultural and perception differences may not be so simple to surmount for American business persons. American salespersons tend to have a tough time when selling to Japanese companies. And, it has been shown that the barriers of acceptance may not be related to product quality issues that have plagued American firms previously. Rob Speigel wrote an
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United States versus Japan: Are there Myths Associated with Cross-Cultural Sales Negotiations? article entitled, Selling to Japan by Joint Venture, in which he described, “…the Japanese business culture as being difficult for outsiders to master. Japanese executives have operated with elaborate business formality that has left outsiders baffled. Add to this the country’s prolonged reluctance to purchase goods and services from nonJapanese businesses and the market has and may still seem impenetrable (Speigel, 2002). This would suggest ethnicallysensitive and well developed selling skills to overcome these business cultural obstructions. As Figure1 [Appendix A], points out, not uncommon to most nations, there are fundamental crosscultural negotiation challenges existing between the two nations. The elements presented in Figure1 can become formidable factors in negotiating between any two firms but is clearly exacerbated by cultural, ideological, philosophical, global business perception, and industrial differences.
Japanese and American firms have had, for more than 50 years, difficulty in bridging cultural differences. These challenges were recently echoed by Tadayuki in his journal article, A Marketing Model of Japanese BuyerSupplier Relationship, in which he described the crosscultural stumbling blocks in the following way, “…In the increasingly resourcedemanding and competitive environment, manufacturers have adopted a Japanese style manufacturer relationship or cooperative longterm manufacturersupplier relationship… This new marketing environment urges business marketers to develop a new set of marketing competence and knowledge as to how to build customer trust (Tadayuki, 2004, pg. 314).” Obviously, new approaches for American salespersons would seem to be necessary, which has represented the impetus for this author’s current research work, housed in this manuscript.
Having lived in Japan for a number of years and conducted my business as a professor and corporate consultant and trainer for Japanese business managers, I am prepared to offer my practical experiences in dealing with these robust sales negotiation issues. One of my experiences was to observe the launching of Microsoft in Japan. Although there were reported an array of rather exciting comments, Microsoft’s sales efforts did not reflect a deep seated cultural knowledge of the Japanese marketplace nor the depth of recognition of Japanese business practices trouble was in the making.
Microsoft seemed to have begun as if it were back in the U.S., with a strong focus toward volume selling as well as building efficiencies of sale and distribution as quickly as possible. Microsoft forgot about the concept of relationship marketing and its significant meaning in Japan, whom may very well be the best practical business example of this concept. As reported by Hoshino, Microsoft went through a rather significant transformation in Japan, “The change in marketing reflects the broader transformation of Microsoft. It started as a charismatically driven, smart new firm, but it eventually became more of a conventional Japanese company mindful of the importance of its relationships with partners and customers. …The commitment [to the Japanese market] included more than 1.4 million small and midsize businesses in Japan a market segment that was a hard nut for Japan's Microsoft to crack…smaller Japanese companies do not use IT as much compared to smaller firms in the West (Hoshino, 2007, Pg. 16).” From the various meeting that I attended over the years, I saw a marked difference of Microsoft’s professional demeanor. It was abundantly clear that Microsoft was becoming a ‘Japanese’ firm.
Although on a broader scale, the import of information technology, from the United States, has had very strong successes in Japan. JETRO reported that the U. S. has been the dominant importer of software to Japan, which has included a 96.5% share of OS/server imports, and a 91.2% share of custom software imports. (www.jetro.go.jp/en/invest/success_stories) In general, my experience reflected that Japanese customers have shown a strong preference to work with American software providers. The possible reasons for such an abundant success in this area may be attributed to Japan’s slowness in it own software and information technological developments, even though the application base for such has been growing exponentially. The other factor that support Japan’s purchase of U.S. software technology is their continued reliance on U.S. made mainframe and mini computers, as well as the extensive array of U.S. designed distributive systems hardware and software configurations. As such far less rigorous software negotiations have been called for between these two entities.
On the other side of export/import, there has been Japans’ global success in offering robotics to the American and European markets. The robotics industry has been stimulated by the 3k’s above as well as a strong worldwide demand for more efficient production of otherwise labor intensive tasks. Japan’s eagerness to embrace new technology has led to huge opportunities in the robotics industry. Consistently strong demand from highlycompetitive manufacturing companies means Japan’s robotics market, valued at $7 billion, is among the largest in the world. This strength has translated into leadership in the burgeoning social welfare robotics field, which is expected to fuel explosive growth to the robotics industry as a whole. Much of the projected growth in the robotics industry will be driven by the emergence of robots as commercially viable consumer products. The next generation of robots will play a number of roles in everyday life. (JETRO) Western Europe and the U.S. are moving forward in Robotic production but not at the rate of the Japanese. Essentially, the demand for this technology and Japan’s manufacturing advancements in robotics has exceeded most needs for extensive sales negotiations. An age old saying, ‘whose got the best with the most, wins,’ seems quite apropos.
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Japanese sales negation prowess, coupled with a globally competitive manufacturing sector has been proven to represent a major obstacle for U.S. exports and international sales efforts. Part of reason that Japan has been so successful was it ability to hire persons like myself to work with them on their crosscultural marketing and sales negotiations. My professional sales managerial experience with IBM and Chase Manhattan Information Services prove to be highly beneficial s a skills transfer to Japanese managers. An example of this was my extensive time spent with Dentsu Corporation, the largest advertising house in Japan. Literally all of my training exercises, by their requests, were focused upon crosscultural negotiations with American firms. Both costs and time working with Dentsu was extensive and there were many more Japanese firms desiring such training. I would wonder how many American firms have contracted for crosscultural negation training with the Japanese.
LITERATURE REVIEW (Presented in Appendix B)
SCOPE OF RESEARCH This paper has hypothesized, through the concept of MYTHS, that in today’s marketing environment, represented by American firms conducting business in Japan, sales negotiations has been and will continue to adversely affected by factors such as nontask related information exchange, taskrelated information, persuasion and concession/agreement. Research has indicated that through understanding and proper use of crosscultural selling tools (including Japanese cultural awareness, high quality/value product characteristics, use of a bilingual member, training and attitude of firms) should lead toward higher success rates of sales negotiations for American sales teams.
US firms have been dissatisfied with quality of past negotiations results with Japanese business persons. The majority of these troubles have been huddled around the following areas:
Different negotiating styles; Language barriers; Delays in decision making; Cultural differences; Lack of control over pace/content of the negotiation; Lack of authority on Japanese part negotiation team to make major decisions; Inquiries not fully or promptly answered; and Insincerity on part of Japanese negotiations (Tung 66)
Americans, in general, as well as American business persons seemed to have formulated a series of myths about doing business with Japan and it is these myths that are at the heart of many sales negotiation problems. The myths and their respective findings will be addressed next:
Myth1: That American sales team are fundamentally structured and trained along similar lines as the Japanese. If true, it would lead one to perceive much of the sales techniques, process, presentations and results to be similar. Previous studies in this area of sales team structure and training have shown consistent threads of performance within the U.S. domestic environment, which have contributed greatly to the ease of job mobility from one company to another with little ‘rampup time.’ Assumption 1 in essence, a successful sales track record should be able to transfer the skills sets to another company while maintaining similar levels of success. Assumption 2 it would follow then that two firms with analogous sales training should have somewhat paralleled sales results, assuming industry factors to be relatively comparable.
Myth2: That there exist substantial cultural similarities between US and Japanese business persons when negotiating in a typical sales environment. It has been readily accepted that proper training has been essential in generating success during business negotiations, domestic or foreign environments. The assumption if U.S. sales teams and their management receive sufficient predeparture training, the premature return rate of American sales people, when doing business with the Japanese, should be very low.
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Myth3: Positive attitudes including sincerity, good faith, and honesty of American sales teams will equal that of Japanese sales teams, which will return relatively equal sales success in their respective nations as well as within crossnational sales. Previous studies have shown that culturallydriven attitudes have played an overwhelming role in the success and failure of sales negotiations. Much of culturebased research, applied to business settings, has revealed a preponderance of cultural misunderstandings due to national, political, ideological, aesthetics, beliefs/religion, and value system differences.
Myth4: U.S. companies will endure a high success rate conducting business negotiations in Japan due to their offering high quality products with uniqueness and value for the Japanese marketplace. Research has shown that the Japanese society have been known to emphasize high quality products at moderate to low costs. Japanese take great pride in producing and enjoying superior products created domestically and from imports.
Myth5: A very large number of American firms, doing business in Japan, will excel through the negotiation stages due to an overall level of competence and understanding of Japanese language and business practices. In the process of researching cultural misunderstandings, it became quite evident that many sales negotiation problems were directly linked to language barriers. Even the use of interpreters have shown to produce less than desirable results due to these interpreters reflecting home county biases.
RESEARCH METHODS An extensive amount of secondary data was reviewed to exhaust the multitude of sales and sales negotiation situations that had occurred over the last 15 years. This was accomplished using online databases, scholarly journals, doctoral dissertations, thesis papers, white papers, text books, and my own crosscultured experience in conducting negotiation seminars and training in Japan with a select group of Japanese corporations.
FINDINGS Addressing Myth1: Are there fundamental differences between Japanese and American selling structures and practices? And, if different, would it not suggest differences in the results or outcomes based upon their respective efforts? The American sales method is considered to have a seven step process: 1 generate sales leads; 2 quantify leads; 3 preparation for the sales call; 4 conducting sales meetings; 5 handling buyer resistance; 6 closing the sale; and 7 account maintenance. This seems to differ from the traditional Japanese sale model.
The Japanese sales progression is much more in depth and structured than the American sales methodology. Consider this very typical process of selling in Japan.
The Japanese selling development is human intensive rather than product intensive. (Otsubo, 1986) When the Japanese seller comes to America to market his products, he naturally assumes the lower status position and acts accordingly (with great respect for the American buyer, etc.), and a sale is initiated. If the salesmen represents a much smaller company than the prospect company, then they may take their senior managers (and often their President if the opportunity is substantial) to meet with the buyer and one of the buyer's senior managers. If the salesmen represents a large Japanese company and the prospect company is also large, then they may take a team of 5 or more senior managers to meet with the buyer and a team of his senior managers.
At this point (maybe 2 3 months after the initial visit) the buyer may ask for a quotation for a small initial 'gesture' order. Initially, the Japanese seller is taken advantage of. After all, he expected the American buyer to respect his needs (consistent with amae). But in any case, a relationship is established between the two firms. The door is open and the Japanese seller has the opportunity to learn the ‘American Way,’ to adjust their behavior, and to establish a more viable longterm relationship. Eventually, although much more time consuming the sales (in many cases a larger sale) would probably be consummated, and with the likelihood longterm repeat sales. Assuming the initial order is satisfactorily completed, the salesmen start a regular pattern of personal visits, giving the traditionally expected summer and winter gifts, sending New Years cards and gradually building the depth and value of the relationship over a period of several years.
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The Japanese believe that their jobs are to identify with and support their customers and to act as the customer liaison officer and advocate within their own company. They feel that, to keep their business, they must spoil their customers and satisfy their every business desire. Their jobs are to provide devoted service for the long run. (Rudlin, 2007) Thus they build a weight of obligation and dependence that has to be repaid typically through sales orders, recommendations, etc. In Japan, word of mouth recommendations and who you know are far more important than advertising (Otsubo, 1986).
It is very important, when going into negotiations with the Japanese; a U.S. firm would understand the values of the Japanese and what they see as admirable. One major subject is education. It would be in the favor of a U.S. firm entering into negotiations with the Japanese to have and be able to provide sufficient knowledge of the product they are attempting to sell and all of its characteristics. In this way, a U.S. firm would be able to educate the prospective clients on the product, answer any questions no matter the difficulty, and seem more presentable all around which may intrigue their Japanese prospective clients to look further into the negotiations (Lawrence, 1991).
In the USA, it is said "the customer is always right; in Japan it is said okyakasuma wa kamisama desu the customer is God (Rudlin, 2007). This orientation of serving others is drilled into the Japanese from childhood as an ingrained attitude derived from the Confucian philosophy of respecting others. By the time Japanese enter a company, knowing how to treat a customer is second nature. This attitude of respect permeates the entire organization. When the company loses face, each member of the organization accepts blame as if it is not the company but my company (Genestre, 1995).
The sales team (Japanese salespeople usually work in teams of 2 or more) identify a prospect company in their region. They try to arrange a personal introduction to the prospect company through an existing customer but failing that will personally visit the prospect company and, after enquiring the name of the manager responsible for purchasing, leave business cards with the receptionist or with a junior clerk from the purchasing department. After a further 1 or 2 such visits over a few weeks, they will ask to see the buyer in person and, if successful, exchange business cards with the buyer, make a few polite inquiries, bow and leave. After another 1 or 2 such visits over a few more weeks to reinforce their dedication and commitment, the salesmen will begin to more seriously pitch their product portfolio to the buyer.
The sales cycle is definitely longer in Japan primarily due to relationships building and overall pace of the business process. Japanese firms tend to be very cautious about new product concepts that would alter their way of doing business necessitating compelling value propositions, presented in multiple ways and without sales pressure. Japan’s caution in business will likely generate longer communications between selling and client managers as well smaller product orders as proof statements or justification trials conducted without disruption of the operation (Sullivan, 1992).
This author contends that the differences between sales cycles and culturally sensitive components of relationship building and patience make for a very different sales process between Japan and the U.S. My own training responsibilities for Japanese business persons, desiring to conduct business in the U.S., focused upon the benefits of maintaining the elements of patience, relationship building, while initializing trial/small quantity selling concept (a selling facet used as a last resort in the U.S.). The Japanese company I worked for conducted a comprehensive 3year evaluation of our sales training program. The results were outstanding in terms of these international deployed Japanese business persons who proved most successful, particularly in the United States. As such, MYTH1 would be considered invalid.
Addressing Myth2: Are there substantial cultural similarities or significant cultural disparities between Japan and the U.S.? An abundance of secondary research revealed that there are significant differences between these two countries their peoples and their business mindsets. The variations between the way the U.S. and Japan conduct their business are often quite remarkable and sometimes seemingly insurmountable to bridge (Sherman, 1990). Let us know consider some of these cultural obstacles.
Dr. Bill Kelley wrote in his book, Culture Clash: West meets East. Sales and Marketing Management, “In Japan, individuality and independence—in or out of business– aren’t as highly valued as they are here. The notion of someone jumping up at a meeting and taking credit for a business plan– or trying to blame someone for its failure– is entirely foreign to them. That’s just not done.” (Kelley 28) Similar thoughts were echoed by Erin Anderson and Leonard Lodish who wrote, “Japan: a collectivistic and highcontext culture, in which collective effort, personal relationships and status are highly valued; USA: a highly individualistic and lowcontext culture, in which individualism and economics are highly valued (Anderson 8).”
Compared to Japanese, Americans spend little time establishing a relationship. The typical Japanese negotiation may involve a series of nontask interactions and even ceremonial gift giving. Witness the recent attention given to the very large kosaihi
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(literally, entertainment expenses) typical of business dealings in Japan (Steinnhoff, 1987). While the Japanese defense budget is 0.9 percent of the country's GNP, corporate wining and dining accounts for 1.2 percent of the total national output (Tung, 1984). To the American critic this may seem an immense waste. However, the Japanese put in great efforts toward establishing a harmonious relationship in the beginning, which I think, in part, has helped them to avoid the expensive litigation (when things go wrong) which seems more and more common in the United States (Gehrt, 2005).
Another area of difference comparing Japan verses the U.S. would be that of their respective social classes complexity for one yet simplicity for the other. Anderson and Lodish researched this subject and wrote “Social class distinctions affect business relationships in Asian countries. The USA has a relatively simple social class system that is based on economic criteria (income, wealth, material possessions, etc).’ ‘Movement up and down the social order is by accumulation of income and material possessions. But several other countries with longer social histories than the USA, base their social class distinctions on seniority criteria, hereditary criteria, or ethnic criteria. In such societies, social distinctions are taken seriously and affect individual and affect individual and group behavior in business (Anderson 9). ’” Managers have to take such social practices into account in the recruitment and selection of salespeople in these markets. Clearly, there are far more complex aspects in Japan as compared to the United States.
In terms of job satisfaction, differences between Japanese and American selling are also quite substantive. Anderson and Lodish’s findings revealed that, “In the USA, financial incentives are very important in enhancing salespeople’s performance and job satisfaction. In Japan, money alone is insufficient in motivating salespeople. Value congruence is also important in boosting salespeople’s job satisfaction, but not performance (Anderson 8).” Kelley also supported Anderson’s views by stating, “Similarly, the Japanese tend to look at their careers differently than do Americans. In Japan, it is usually a job for life; in America, it’s often a job until something better comes along. As a result, many Japanese have a sense of loyalty to their employers. The Japanese are usually in the same company all their working lives (Kelley 28).”
Management styles, particularly in terms of discussions, negotiations and decision making, were quite different between the two nations. (Gross, 1990) In general, Japanese management move at a much slower pace than the Americans do when negotiating. Kelley wrote, “The Japanese group approach hinders sales because things move too slowly and no one takes responsibility for the marketing plan. … It has been discovered that the Japanese are not always the most efficient workers– they do not manage time well (Kelley).” It has been proven time and time again that the ‘ringi’ method of decision making may take more time but its overall ‘buyin’ yield by its employees pay very high dividends of work efficiency and quality results.
Longterm planning has been far more robust in Japan compared to the U.S. Clearly, lifetime employment, as a philosophy, has made many Japanese firms think more longterm and, as a result offer incentives and rewards based upon one’s long term commitment to their respective organizations. As Kelley wrote, “This is certainly not the case with the US, where promotions, raises, and other incentives are usually tied to short term results– especially at a company that is highly leveraged. … The Japanese tend to look at different ways to work things out, so it may take a while longer for you to learn where they stand. They are not as quick to shoot off their mouths as we are– which isn’t exactly a bad quality. They just want to be sure (Kelley 28).”
The final topic of discrimination posses some interesting twists as both nations discriminate in a multitude a ways towards their populations and toward their socialeconomical statuses. Yet, this author contends that the state of discrimination in Japan was far more acute. For example, many Americans have felt that their advancement is limited within Japanese firms. Regardless of their success, they say they eventually hit a “glassceiling”– a level within a company they can’t go beyond. This would be akin to working for a family business in the U.S., in which no matter the effort, ‘blood lines’ comes first. In a certain number of cases, Japanese companies have been sued by former employees who claim they were discriminated against or held back because they weren’t Japanese. And while a few have even gone so far as to cite racism as the basis for such policies, most believe it’s really more a question of who the Japanese are comfortable working and socializing with. Having lived and worked for two Japanese firms myself over a period of three years, I was aware of utterances of prejudice that were clearly apparent, yet there remained a shared gratification that I was, nonetheless, part of the team, deserving of respect and appreciation (Wilson, 1980).
The aforementioned differences reveal MYTH2 as being both highly naïve and false.
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Addressing Myth3: Has there been distinct differences in the levels of salespersons’ attitudes (including sincerity, good faith, and honesty) of American sales teams compared to that of Japanese sales teams? If so, have these differences suggested distinctly different levels of sales effectiveness?
There is no doubt that Japan and the United States are major business partners and that successful negotiations between Japanese and U.S. companies have implications for the economies of both countries. Yet descriptions of Japanese and U.S. negotiating styles suggest substantial differences in approach, (Graham, 1993; Kato & Kato, 1992; March, 1990) that may affect intercultural negotiations. For example, a vice president in the Japan merchant banking operation at Bankers Trust noted in the New York Times Magazine that information is viewed as an important source of power in negotiations in both the United States and Japan (Yoshimura, 1997). U.S. negotiators, he suggested, exercise the power of information by disclosing it, and in return, they get information from other people. In contrast, the Japanese exercise the power of information by hiding it, he noted, going on to point out another fundamental difference between Japanese and U.S. negotiating styles: "For Japanese, negotiation is usually a process of reaching a point that is acceptable to both parties. For Americans, it's a competition dividing winners and losers. Americans, he continued, often open negotiations at a level that is totally unacceptable to the Japanese, seeing the opening offer as a starting point, but the Japanese cannot see trust in such behavior (Yoshimura, 1997).”
For the Japanese, this exchange of information is the main part of the negotiation. A complete understanding is imperative; the Japanese are reported to ask "endless" questions while offering little information and ambiguous responses. In both the field and the laboratory, Japanese negotiators were observed to spend much more time trying to understand the situation and associated details of one another's bargaining position.
One of the major issues that contribute to the negotiations failure rate is the attitudes of the Americans towards the Japanese. In the U.S., business negotiations are set out to be quick and straight to the point, leaving no time for ‘lollygagging’, but in Japan, negotiations are carried out in a completely different way. Negotiations take time and patients, the Japanese must know and trust the American firms they may be doing business with and this initial process may take weeks, even months before being complete. As a result of the time ‘wasted’ and all of the ‘lollygagging’, many U.S. firms who are not accustomed to the Japanese negotiation style develop a less than positive attitude about how they conduct business and are in no rush to do business with them.
Past research had determined that Japanese and American cultures view trust on very different levels. The simple descriptive statistics of automobile supplierautomakers shown in Table1 [APPENDIX C] indicates that supplier trust is significantly higher in Japan than the United States. The length of the supplierautomaker relationship was highest in Japan (41.4 years), followed by the U.S. (32.6 years) and Korea (12.4 years) (Dyer 270).
A vignette of the Japanese character would reveal that they are extremely competitive in business, both at home and abroad, with a keen sense of perfection and attention to detail. They are thought to have a strong sense of "being Japanese," with the subordination of individual interests. They exhibit a humble, almost obsequious approach toward their superiors. No one would question their high degree of selfsacrifice for family, job and nation, or their strong sense of shame when behavior departs from identified group norms. A persistent desire for harmony in human relationships is clearly evident, resulting in group, rather than individual decision making. They have a strong sense of personal honesty and an insatiable desire to improve their standard of living. And they are willing to take high risks, especially in business (Maher 40).
Although it remains a highly debatable topic as to the transfer value of one’s religion into their daily lives, it would seemingly be unjust not to at last state the relative importance of religion in the Japanese society. According to statistics published by a Japanese government agency, the combined number of Buddhists and Shintoists in Japan exceeds 217 million (Agency for Cultural Affairs 1991). Since there are only 124 million people in Japan, that implies a double counting as most of the Japanese subscribe to both of these religions and mention them in enumeration (109 million for Shintoism and 96 million for Buddhism). Being a Buddhist myself, I can attest to the orderly commitments of both mind and body towards all aspects of one’s daily activities. In addition, having experienced a multitude of Shinto rituals being performed in Japan for new machinery installations, new buildings, weddings, deaths, and a multitude of other personal/family needs, I can attest to the important role this religion plays in Japanese society as well as Japanese business.
Both religions, Buddhism and Shintoism speak to the peaceful undertaking of all aspects of one’s life, which by definition, would permeate through Japanese business structure and its ‘familyoriented conduct. As such, Japanese salespersons,
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United States versus Japan: Are there Myths Associated with Cross-Cultural Sales Negotiations? being backed by the conduct of their company and their religion(s) would tend to conduct themselves with heightened levels of sincerity, good faith, and honesty. (Mohammed, 2006)
American businesses and Christianity, the largest faith in the U.S., tend to play an ‘armslength’ relationship, which would suggest differing levels of religious influence on the moral fibers of American businesspersons. Also, firms in the U.S., for the most part, do not conduct a ‘familyoriented’ structure as reflected in the job instability in America. Lastly, the cultural concept of ‘I’, not ‘We,’ as in the case of the Japanese, would foster more sales independence and internal competition within the U.S, resulting in varying levels of conduct and ethical behavior.
On the basis of the aforementioned findings and personal experiences, I would conclude that MYTH3 would be false.
Addressing Myth4: Is it possible to sell inferior products or similar products with no market distinction to the Japanese and what are the consequences in attempting to do so? At any early stage of an American sales negotiation with the Japanese, the U.S. made products and/or services may have already been thwarted by the mere fact that the goods or services would not meet Japanese standards. (Seawright, 1994) Japanese take on a more holistic (Genestre, 1995) view towards products. They see a total product as consisting of both tangible and intangible components. From a management perspective, the purpose is to supply customers with items that cover maximum value – which is determined by cost and quality. While US management views cost reduction and quality improvement as contradictory objectives that go in tandem. In fact, the Japanese word ‘keihakutansho’ means “lighter, slimmer, shorter, and smaller” and implies less expensive items that are more useful products that are economical in purchases, use and maintenance (Seawright, 1994).
Dr. Rosalie Tung researched negotiating with the Japanese businesses and wrote that eightythreepercent of failures during business negotiations were due to Japanese not needing products/services that the US companies supplied. This was due to the products not being unique in their industry. Tung wrote, “A second factor that was responsible for the failure of business negotiations was labeled “product characteristics” and included the two items of Japanese did not need products/services offered by the US firm” and “too many competitors all offering the same product/service that the US companies supplies (Tung, 1984, pg. 43).” The first item Japanese did not need products services offered by the U.S. firm was perceived by 83% of the respondent firms as being responsible for failure of business negotiations. This was, by far, the most frequently mentioned item. This finding again point to the extreme competitiveness of the Japanese markets and the need for US firms to offer truly unique products and/or services in order to make significant inroads into the Japanese economy (Tung, 1984, pg. 47).” A clear example of this has been the dismal marketing of American vehicle sales in Japan.
Japanese have been quite reluctant to purchase American vehicles. This is undoubtedly due to three primary factors. The first and most significant is that Japanese cars are on par, if not perceived to be much higher quality over American automobiles. This would be considered true for both cars and trucks. In addition, Japanese automobile manufacturer are considered world leaders in technological advancements. Consider three words in Japan, commonly called the 3Ks, that have helped to stem the automobile research towards major technological advancements, Kitsui meaning hard or severe or heavy, Kitanai meaning dirty, and Kiken meaning dangerous. These words have started a major thrust towards the production of hybrid engines or diesel engines with a philosophy of ecology and fuel reduction, and requiring high technology to produce (Yagi, 2006). In addition, such tested designs as hydrogen vehicles as well as full electric cell vehicles are actively being designed and manufactured.
The second factor that has curtailed Japan’s interests in American automobiles has been their love of high tech vehicles, which have made BMW and Mercedes Benz their most desired foreign automobiles. The third factor in Japan has been its consumers’ insatiable desire for miniaturization, which has greatly impacted their automobile manufacturing (JaiBeom, 1999). I experienced a multitude of cute little 14 passenger vehicles on the major roads and narrow small town streets in Japan. As one readily knows, small cars have not been Detroit’s forte. Therefore, negotiations in sales within a noncompetitive environment become futile and so very few U.S. automobiles are sold in Japan.
The third and last factor came about during my stay in Japan, while conducting a training exercise with Nissan Motors. Nissan designed a novel concept that was to revolutionize the automobile industry. The term they coined for this concept was called the ‘5 Anys’ 1) any product accessory, 2) any customization, 3) any where, 4) any time and 5) for any vehicle. Essentially, Nissan wanted to customize most of their vehicles for each and every customer, worldwide. The concept, although failing in its initial market thrust, was slightly ahead of its time. Toyota Motor Corporation has adopted a very similar 4 of 5 Anys in terms of its Scion vehicles. It is believed that Scion will represent a massive test as to the level of automobile customization
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Japanese offer to their domestic consumers and customers a wide variety of highquality as well as fashionable set of products and services produced by Japanese, German, and other foreign nations. Japanese technological advances within many of these products and services in many cases far exceed that of American products and services, as such generating formidable challenges for American sales in Japan. Product characteristic is one of the factors measured to determine the success or failure of a sales negotiation. This factor includes the importance of the uniqueness of the product or service offered by the US firm in the Japanese market. Tung wrote, “Given the difficulties encountered by foreign investors in establishing operations in Japan, and the general competitiveness of Japanese producers, it is important that the product or service offered by a U.S. firm be truly unique. Otherwise, the chances of a U.S. firm’s gaining successful entry and penetration into the Japanese market may be severely hampered (Tung, 1984, pg. 70).”
The net conclusion would be that product distinction as well as product quality have hampered many American products from gaining inroads in Japan. Although high technology has made some inroads in sales to Japan, U.S. consumer electronics and automobile imports have failed to gain even a modicum of market share in the Japanese marketplace. As such, MYTH4 has little to no merit.
Addressing Myth5: Will the large majority of American firms, conducting sale negotiations with the Japanese, fare well in terms of their negotiating styles and levels of crosscultural savvy? This question is, for all intent and purpose, the bottomline challenge towards American firms and, in consideration of the fact that due to the lack of proper predeparture training by American firms, the premature return rate of American sales people when doing business with Japanese sales team is in excess of 50%, there are definitely issues and hurdles yet to be addressed (Graham, John L., 1986).
The selected differences in buyerseller styles [Table 2: Appendix C], shows a difference between the presentation styles of the American and Japanese selling and relationship styles as well as sales compensation. This representation of buyer differences was confirmed by Kelley’s research, which was reflected in his statement, “Recognizing, rewarding, and praising employees is almost unheard of in most Japanese companies, even those based in the US. In America, of course, these are key factors that drive many salespeople to perform better. … It’s not just a business thing. It’s a way of life (Kelley, pg. 28).”
Although it has already been mentioned that bilingual skills can clearly present distinct advantages for the sales team, there are still more fundamental factors in the process of negotiation that would significantly affect negotiating with the Japanese: 1) Attitude and preparation of U.S. firm; 2) Cultural Awareness; 3) Attitudes and preparation of Japanese firm; 4) Product characteristics; 5) Personal relationships; and 6) technological transfer environment.
Attitudes and Preparation of US Firms The U.S. Department of Commerce presented an alarming statistic, in which 24 out of every 25 business proposals made by American firms to Japanese counterparts died (failed) during the negotiation stage, and in many cases, the reason had nothing to do with price or quality (Gehrt, 2005). For the most part, the failures were due to cultural misunderstandings. Corporate and national image were at stake, yet, over the past 20 years, crosscultural bunglings have been prolific amongst American firms endeavoring to carry out business dealings in Japan.
American firms, performing business activities in Japan, have overwhelmingly agreed that they flayed around in unnecessary and costly fashions due to not being properly prepared to negotiate and structure business dealings with Japanese businesses. Whether it was American industrial arrogance, or just underestimating the sophistication of the Japanese market, or its complex Keiretsu business structures, or its bureaucratic economic and trade ministries, American firms were soon to realize that successfully performing business in Japan was going to take a lot more groundwork and research than previously planned (Akhter, 2003).
Cultural Awareness A comparison of the American firms’ preparation and resulting Japanese buyer responses as well as Japanese firms’ preparation and resulting business responses in the U.S. is represented in Figure2 [Appendix A]. The research supporting this graph has uncovered that the amount of information exchanged prior to the first offer would be more positively related to joint gains for U.S. negotiators (by 12.5%) than for Japanese negotiators. The graph shows that a late first offer (after 20
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United States versus Japan: Are there Myths Associated with Cross-Cultural Sales Negotiations? days) has led to lower joint gains for Japanese negotiators but higher joint gains for U.S. negotiators. As foreseen in controlling the overall proportion of information exchanged generated two distinctly different primary effects, the more informationexchange statements U.S. negotiators made prior to their first offer, the higher their joint gains. This diagram also revealed that the opposite was true for Japanese negotiators the more explicit information they exchanged prior to a first offer, the lower their joint gains (Adair).
Over 80% of nonJapanese businesses state that having language skills at a “social level” are essential to not only conduct business in Japan but it would also prove valuable in nonworking, social settings. Indeed for the unprepared westerner, the simple mechanics of living in Japan may be extremely complex in unexpected ways (McDaniel, 2000). Simply put, there are a lot of hassles for the semiliterate in a modern industrial society. Language is the first step in solving the puzzle of culture and social practices in Japan. Sherman wrote, “No matter how good your translators are, you will always be missing out on tremendous amounts of your information about your company, your industry, and your marketplace if you do not speak and read Japanese (Sherman, 1990, Pg. 306).”
When one considers that 56% of American firms include a bilingual member in their negotiations team due to language barriers, in which most of these firms would succumb to high levels of reliance on the interpreter. Realizing that (77%) of these American firms indicated the bilingual member’s role was primarily that of an interpreter, it would also suggest that there would likely be no bias interpretations leaning towards the foreign business (Tung, 66).
A good deal of research has been conducted towards examining the negative aspects of using a Japanese provided interpreter and how it affects the quality of the negotiation process for U.S. firms. As stated by Koldau, “Their lack of foreign language abilities puts American negotiators at a disadvantage… The use of interpreters gives foreign negotiators better opportunity to observe the American nonverbal responses and provide more time to respond (Koldau, 1996, Pg. 12).” Additionally, Japanese may also use a tactic known as “selective understanding.” Selective understanding refers to a technique Japanese negotiators use to buy time to think of an appropriate response, or to ignore a question, concern, or objection. In the absence of a bilingual member, another area that Americans are often flawed leading to diminished quality is by making false assumptions. Koldau wrote, “Americans often assume that the person in the foreign negotiating team with the best English speaking ability represents the most intelligent and influential [person] in the group. This is often not the case and leads to paying most attention to the wrong person (Koldau).” This situation could lead to offending the main decision maker, and ultimately hinder the ability to reach an agreement. The lack of a bilingual member could also position American negotiators at a disadvantage. Since many Japanese executives understand English they can use it to their distinct advantage. “Americans face strong conversational disadvantages when Japanese executives use an interpreter even though they understand English.’ ‘Having the double response time and being able to focus on observing nonverbal signals while the interpreter translates one’s own statement are significant advantages for the Japanese side (Koldau).’”
In some cases, the lack of effective translation was based upon the interpreter having a lack of command of the English language, or unwillingness to present the American firm’s points of view. It may also have been that the interpreter(s) did not make the exact translation guided by the feeling that there were ‘only direct communications’ required between the parties, or not understanding the various innuendos within the conversations, or not understanding the slang expressions or business acronyms unique to the product and/or industry or geographic region of the U.S. (Tung).
In the absence of a bilingual member, another area that Americans are often flawed leading to diminished quality is by making false assumptions. Koldau wrote, “Americans often assume that the person in the foreign negotiating team with the best English speaking ability represents the most intelligent and influential [person] in the group. This is often not the case and leads to paying most attention to the wrong person (Koldau).” This situation could lead to offending the main decision maker, and ultimately hinder the ability to reach an agreement. The lack of a bilingual member could also position American negotiators at a disadvantage. Since many Japanese executives understand English they can use it to their distinct advantage. “Americans face strong conversational disadvantages when Japanese executives use an interpreter even though they understand English.’ ‘Having the double response time and being able to focus on observing nonverbal signals while the interpreter translates one’s own statement are significant advantages for the Japanese side (Koldau) .’”
Attitudes and Preparation of Japanese Firms Past research verified that 83% of American businesses have attested that the attitude of the Japanese firm was important or very important to the success of a sales negotiation (Tung). An assessment of the factors responsible for the success of business negotiations in Japan, ranging from very important to moderately important is presented in Figure3 [Appendix A].
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There seems to be little doubt that sincerity, good faith, and hoesty play a very important role in Japanese business negotiations.
Product Characteristics Ken Flynn, sales manager in the US subsidiary of a large Japanese electronics company whom has worked in Japan says, “As a rule, (the Japanese) make very good products, and that’s what they count on in order to succeed (Kelley 1).” In the same article the author states, “… the fact that most Americans feel products the Japanese make are superior, has given them a leg up on their competitors (Kelley 1).” In fact, it could be said that their reputation for building quality products is the one thing that has allowed them to excel in the world markets in a way that makes others green with envy.
Personal Relationships Culture, more than any other factor, will influence the attitude of a Japanese firm who engage in sales negotiations. Human relations in Japan, as characterized by the close bonds that exist between superior and subordinate and among peers themselves, play a significant role in the smooth operation of any human endeavor. American firms should pay due regard to this factor (Tung).
Additional studies have demonstrated that the Japanese are very relationship oriented. Japanese feel that business negotiations run much smoother, and they feel much more secure with their decisions if there is a close trust built up between the negotiating teams. Japanese culture would be classified as high context, collectivism, high power distance, linguistically indirect, background focused, and achievers of efficiency through reduction of transaction costs. Both cultures (U.S. and Japan) do achieve efficiency, but through different emphases (Graham, 2006). A review of Figure4 [Appendix A] amplifies some these differing characteristics shown through social focus and goal orientation. As Graham and Cateora pointed out in their book, International Marketing, focusing on longterm relationship building has been especially important in most international markets where culture dictates stronger ties between people and companies (Graham).
Technological Transfer Environment Technical expertise provided by U.S. firms to their Japanese partners in the past is viewed as a contributing factor to the success of business negotiations. Technical expertise might be defined as the extent to which a buyer understands the production processes and affiliated technologies related to a purchased good. The skill involves technical knowhow, is specific to the good, and is developed over time. Firms gain this expertise directly through production of the component or indirectly through producing related products and conducting relevant research activities (Wallace, 1972).
A buyer’s technical expertise will, in general be able to assist in developing accurate and detailed specifications that can then be used within superior evaluation tools, resulting in higher supplier performance. This is the mindset of Japanese manufacturing. The negotiation process would likely move more readily, or at least in the ‘right’ direction if the U.S. sales team realized that a Japanese’ company, as a potential buyer, must be able to benefit from deeper information sharing from the American firm since they can exchange more complex technical details.
There seems to be an abundance of research that negates MYTH 5 has having, at best, only a modicum of truth.
LIMITATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Unfortunately, this study lacked a primary research component to gain a perspective on specific sales team(s) success and/or failed negotiations as well as details as to the post assessment for each outcome. Since the project countries were only two the United States and Japan, one could only extend the results of this study to other countries with caution. There may also be differences in regional sales territories throughout the United States that have differing levels of crosscultural experience due to preexisting trade flows with that or those nations, which was not addressed in this study. For example, there is more Asian trade being conducted in the west (California) and east (New York) coasts of U.S. than any other areas. In addition, differences in foreign experiences may also play a role in easier crosscultural acceptance due to previous levels of contact and business experience within certain sectors (geographic or industrial) in the U.S. were not addressed in this study.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESEARCH Further Research: It may prove more beneficial to incorporate primary research (achieved by administering field surveys or conducting sales and sale management interviews) to validate secondary research findings as well as bring forth the allimportant element of
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Application Use: The abundance of evidence offered through this study, showing both mistakes and solutions in foreign negotiations, would be of benefit and use to all companies that are planning on or conducting overseas sales activities, particularly in Asia.
CLOSING COMMENTS Based upon the secondary research incorporated into this study and my own experiences both living and working in Japan and the U.S., it appears that there exist significant differences between negotiation styles of these countries respective sales teams. These aforementioned sales negotiation differences, which have been shown to present distinct variations on sales negotiations, were/are: cultural awareness, product characteristics, use of bilingual member, training and attitude of firms. Gavin Kennedy wrote, “My central message is that you can negotiate abroad providing that you remember that culture does influence your partner’s behavior and that if you want to do better in your negotiations you had better become aware of the influence that your partner’s culture is exerting on him or her—and, as important, the extent to which you are influenced by your own culture (Gavin Kennedy, Negotiate Anywhere, Preface).” Successful crosscultural training and adaptation of the Japanese sales negotiation model would prove highly beneficial for American salespersons to incorporate.
Japanese sales teams are better trained in crosscultural sensitivity and international marketing as a sales focus. The research has additional shown that Japanese view their skills in these negotiations as being central to their success. Research has revealed that before a U.S. manager is asked to negotiate with Japanese, extensive preparation is essential. The manager should be given a frame of reference into which the ‘strange’ behavior of the foreigner can be fitted. He/she should be armed with an available a set of intellectual tools in order to analyze what’s happening during the communication. The most experienced international businesspeople are able to accept cultural differences without making value judgments. They are able to work creatively with these differences and not feel personally threatened by them.
So what can an American company do to attempt in solving these dilemmas? As a way of combating this behavior, companies need to offer negotiations training and international diversity training programs. Within the negotiations training, certain techniques should be implemented to give a more real world experience. In terms of international diversity training, which also focuses on negotiations, the central imperative in process would be that managers and other employees from different cultures understand much better how and why culture(s) affects their expectations, reactions, view of themselves and each other, including possible negative perceptions (Kent, 2004). U.S. companies must learn about Japanese lifestyles and values within cultural awareness training. They must learn what is viewed as acceptable and unacceptable behavior. They must learn how to be respectful and how to apologize for unintended disrespect. Based upon my experience, I would say that the Japanese way of life is something so unique that one would find it extremely difficult to function everyday without some prior knowledge as to what is to be expected. The U.S. firms will need to develop a dire need for intercultural communication training in meeting the challenge of operating as a gaijin (stranger) within the Japanese social and corporate culture (Goldman 16).
In terms of international diversity training, which also focuses on negotiations, the central imperative in process would be that managers and other employees from different cultures understand much better how and why culture(s) affects their expectations, reactions, view of themselves and each other, including possible negative perceptions. (Kent, 2004) U.S. companies must learn about Japanese lifestyles and values within cultural awareness training. They must learn what is viewed as acceptable and unacceptable behavior. They must learn how to be respectful and how to apologize for unintended disrespect. Based upon my experience, I would say that the Japanese way of life is something so unique that one would find it extremely difficult to function everyday without some prior knowledge as to what is to be expected. The U.S. firms will need to develop a dire need for intercultural communication training in meeting the challenge of operating as a gaijin (stranger) within the Japanese social and corporate culture (Goldman 16).
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Anderson, Erin and Leonard Lodish (2006). Leading the Effective Sales Force: The Asian Sales Force Management Environment. Alliance Center for Global Research and Development. 40/MKT. Pg. 78. Clarke, Clifford and C, G Douglas Lipp (1 Feb. 1998). Conflict Resolution for Contrasting Cultures. Training & Development. 2033. Pg. 157. Clark, Phillip B. (Aug 28, 2000). B2B U.S. Firms see Asia’s Promise. B to B Chicago. Vol . 85. Iss. 13. Pg 1 & 2. Cohen, Reymond (2001). Resolving Conflict across Languages. Negotiation Journal. Frankenstein, John, and Hosseini, Hassan (July 1988). Advice from the Field: Training for Japanese Duty. Management Review. Pg. 4142. Gehrt, Kenneth C., Sherry Lotz, Soyeon Shim, Tomoaki Sakano and Naoto Onzo (2005). Overcoming Informal Trade Barriers among Japanese Intermediaries: An Attitudinal Assessment. Agribusiness. 21.1. Pg. 53. Genestre, Alain, Herbig, Paul, Shao, Alan T. (1995). What does Marketing Really Mean to the Japanese. Marketing Intelligence & Planning. Bradford. Vol. 13. Iss. 9. Pg. 16. 12 pgs. Giacomino, Don E, Michael D Akers, and Atsushi Fujita (1999). Personal Values of Japanese Business Managers. Business Forum. Iss. 24.12. Pg. 914. Goldman, Alan (1994). Doing Business with the Japanese. Preparing U.S. Managers. State University of New York, Albany. Pg. 22 Graham, John L. (Autumn 1986). Across the Negotiating Table from the Japanese. International Marketing Review. Pg. 58 71 Graham, John L. & Philip R. Cateora (2006). International Marketing. Irwin Professional Pub. Pg. 338410. Gross, Neil (October 15, 1990). Zen and the Art of Middle Management. Business Week. Industrial/technology edition; Business Week's Gross Covers Science and Technology in Tokyo. Letter from Saijoji. No. 3182. Pg. 20 Article presented in www.japanguide.com. Hollensen, Svend (2004). Cross Cultural Sales Negotiation. Global Marketing. Prentice Hall. 4th Ed. Pg. 617620. Hoshino, Tomohiko and Sakakibara, Ken (11 September 2007). Client Relations become Top Priority. The Nikkei Weekly. Pg. 16. Ilon, Alon (2003). Academy of International Business. From http://aib.msu.edu/publications/insights/insights_v003n01.pdf JaiBeom, Kim (1999). Relationship Marketing in Japan: The BuyerSupplier Relationships of Four Automakers. The Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing. Vol. 14. Pg. 118125. Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO). From http://www.jetro.go.jp/en/invest/success_stories/ Kelley, Bill. Culture Clash: West meets East. Sales and Marketing Management. New York Jul 1991. Vol. 143 Iss. 8. Pg, 28. 5 pgs. Koldau, Claudius. Meaning of Cross Cultural Differences. ISBM Report 14, 1996. Kent, John (Sept. 2004). Training for International Success. Purification Magazine. Vol. 46. Nos. 9. Pg. 1. Kumagai, Fumie (1995). Families in Japan: Beliefs and realities. Journal of Comparative Family Studies. Iss. 26.1. Pg.135. Lawrence, Robert Z., Saxonhouse, Gary R. (1991). Efficient or Exclusionist? The Import Behavior of Japanese Corporate Groups; Comments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Vol. 1. Pg. 311. Maher, Thomas E, Wong, Yim Yu (Winter 1994). The Impact of Cultural Differences on the Growing Tensions b/w Japan and the United States. S.A.M. Advanced Management Journal. Cincinnati. Vol. 59. Iss. 1. Pg. 40. 7 pgs. McDaniel, Edwin Ralph (2000). Japanese Negotiating Practices: Lowcontext Communication in a Highcontext Culture. Diss. Arizona State University. Mohammed Y. A. Rawwas, Ziad Swaidan, and Jamal AlKhatib (2006) Does Religion Matter? A Comparison Study of the Ethical Beliefs of Marketing Students of Religious and Secular Universities in Japan. Journal of Business Ethics. Vol. 65.1. Pg. 6986. Morimoto, Ikuyo, Miki Saijo, Kayoko Nohara, Kotaro Takagi, Hiroko Otsuka, Kana Suzuki, and Manabu Okumura (2006). How Do Ordinary Japanese Reach Consensus in Group Decision Making? Identifying and Analyzing "Naïve Negotiation. Group Decision and Negotiation. Iss. 15.2 Vol. 157. ABI/INFORM Global. ProQuest. Rohrbach Library, Kutztown University. Kutztown. 3 Dec. 2007
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Sullivan, Jeremiah J. (1992). Japanese Management Philosophies: From the Vacuous to the Brilliant. California Management Review. Iss. 34.2. Pg. 66. Tadayuki, Miyamoto (04 Mar. 2002). A Marketing Model of Japanese BuyerSupplier Relationship. Journal of Business Research Vol. 57 Pg. 312319. Tung, Rosalie L. (Summer 1984). How to Negotiate with the Japanese. California Management Review. Iss. 26, 000004; ABI/INFORM Global. Pg. 6573. Wallace, William McDonald (1972). The Secret Weapon of Japanese Business. Columbia Journal of World Business. Iss. 7.6. Pg. 4352. Wilson, Glenn D. and Saburo Iwawaki (1980). Social Attitudes in Japan. Journal of Social Psychology Iss. 112. Pg. 175 180. Yagi, Takashi (2006). Industrial Robot. Bedford. Vol. 33. Iss. 5. Pg. 359.
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APPENDIX A Figure 1: CrossCultural Negotiations
Non-task Related interaction Seller’s cultural background 1. Status Distinction
2. Impression formation accuracy
3. Interpersonal attraction Cultural ‘distance’ Task Related Interaction between seller and 4. Exchange of information buyer
5. Persuasion and bargaining strategy
6. Concession making and agreement Buyer’s cultural background 7. Negotiation outcome
Hollensen, Svend. Global Marketing, Prentice Hall. 4th e. pg. 618
Figure 2: Challenges in Doing Business: Japan & the United States (Information Exchange Prior To First Offering)
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Figure 3: Factors Responsible for the Success of Business Negotiations
Figure 4 Americans Japanese
Task oriented goals Social relationships Goal conflict
Negative Emotions
Behavioral incompatibility Information processing
Relationship Quality Integrative Outcomes
“The model implies that “communicative conflict” affects the negotiation process and “The model implies that “communicative conflict” affects the negotiation process and outcomes outcomes through the mediating role of emotions. It is postulated that goal conflict creates through the mediating role of emotions. It is postulated that goal conflict creates negative negative emotions among the negotiators. Negative emotions affect subsequent negotiation emotions among negotiators. Negative emotions affect subsequent negotiation behaviors and behaviors and outcomes by fostering behavioral incompatibility and/or constricting outcomes by fostering behavioral incompatibility and/or constricting information processing. information processing. Behavioral incompatibility and/or constricted information processing may lower the integrativeBehavioral incompatibility and/or constricted information processing may lower the integrat‐ness of negotiation outcomes. In a worst case scenario, the parties ive may not even reach an agreement. Furthermore, it is postulated that behavioral ness of negotiation outcomes. In a worst case scenario, the parties may not even reach an incompatibility will also have an adverse impact on the nature of the relationship among the agreement. Furthermore, it is postulated that behavioral incompatibility will also have an parties.”adverse impact on the nature of the relationship among the parties.” SOURCE: Communicative Conflict in Intercultural Negotiations: The Case of American and Japanese Business Negotiations, RAJESHSource KUMAR,: Communicative International Negotiation Conflict 4: in 71,Intercultural 1999. Negotiations: The Case of American and Japanese Business Negotiations, RAJESH KUMAR, International Negotiation, 4:71, 1999.
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APPENDIX B
LITERATURE REVIEW General Knowledge on Japanese Culture: Clark, Phillip B. (Aug 28, 2000). B2B U.S. Firms see Asia’s Promise. B to B Chicago. Vol .85, Iss. 13. Pg 1 & 2. JaiBeom , Kim (1999). Relationship Marketing in Japan: The BuyerSupplier Relationships of Four Automakers. The Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing Vol 14 Pg. 118125.
Japanese vs. American Culture – Differences: Goldman, Alan (1994). Doing Business with the Japanese. Preparing U.S. Managers. State University of New York, Albany. Pg. 22 Hoshino, Tomohiko and Sakakibara, Ken (11 September 2007 Edition). Client Relations Become Top Priority. The Nikkei Weekly. Japan External Trade Organization
Problems between Japanese vs. American Sales Teams: Anderson, Erin and Leonard Lodish (2006). Leading the Effective Sales Force: The Asian Sales Force Management Environment. Alliance Center for Global Research and Development. 40/MKT. Pg. 78. Japan External Trade Organization
Religion and Selling: Heine, Steven (Jan 2005). Japanese Buddhism: A Cultural History. Philosophy East and West. Honolulu. Vol. 55. Iss. 1. Pg. 125. 2 pgs Maher, Thomas E, Wong, Yim Yu (Winter 1994). The Impact of Cultural Differences on the Growing Tensions b/w Japan and the United States. S.A.M. Advanced Management Journal. Cincinnati. Vol. 59. Iss. 1. Pg. 40. 7 pgs.
American & Japanese Sales Processes: Genestre, Alain, Herbig, Paul, Shao, Alan T. (1995). What does Marketing Really Mean to the Japanese. Marketing Intelligence & Planning. Bradford. Vol. 13. Iss. 9. Pg. 16. 12 pgs (http://venturejapan.com/fasttracksalesjapan1.htm) (http://www.asianinfo.org/asianinfo/japan/religion.htm). Maher, Thomas E, Wong, Yim Yu (Winter 1994). The Impact of Cultural Differences on the Growing Tensions b/w Japan and the United States. S.A.M. Advanced Management Journal. Cincinnati. Vol. 59. Iss. 1. Pg. 40. 7 pgs. Mohammed Y. A. Rawwas, Ziad Swaidan, and Jamal AlKhatib (2006) Does Religion Matter? A Comparison Study of the Ethical Beliefs of Marketing Students of Religious and Secular Universities in Japan. Journal of Business Ethics Vol. 65.1. Pg. 6986. Otsubo, Mayumi (Spring 1986). A Guide to Japanese Business Practices. California Management Review. Vol. 28 Iss. 3, Pg. 28, 15 pgs. (AN 4762574). Part VI: Statistics on Religion and Sales. Frankenstein, John, and Hosseini, Hassan (July 1988). Advice From the Field: Training for Japanese Duty. Management Review. Pg.4142. Goldman, Alan (1994). Doing Business with the Japanese. Preparing U.S. Managers. State University of New York, Albany. Pg. 22 Sherman, Linda (July 1990). Breaking the Intimacy Barrier. Japan Quarterly. Pg.306.
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CrossCultural Negotiation Process: Adair, Wendi L, Tetsushi Okumura, and Jeanne M. Brett (Sept. 1, 2004). Negotiating Across Cultures. Mohammed Y. A. Rawwas, Ziad Swaidan, and AlKhatib Jamal (2006). Does Religion Matter? A Comparison Study of the Ethical Beliefs of Marketing Students of Religious and Secular Universities in Japan. Journal of Business Ethics Iss. 65.1. Pg. 6986. Tung, Rosalie L. (Summer 1984). How to Negotiate with the Japanese. California Management Review. Iss. 26, 000004; ABI/INFORM Global. Pg. 6573. Graham, John L. (Autumn 1986). Across the Negotiating Table from the Japanese. International Marketing Review. Pg 58 71.
Myth1: Clarke, Clifford C and G Douglas Lipp (Feb. 1, 1998). Conflict Resolution for Contrasting Cultures. Training & Development. Pg. 2033. Research Library. ProQuest. Rohrbach Library. Kutztown University. Kutztown. 3 Dec. 2007
Myth2: Wilson, Glenn D. and Saburo Iwawaki (1980). Social Attitudes in Japan. Journal of Social Psychology Iss. 112. Pg. 175 180. Wallace, William McDonald (1972). The Secret Weapon of Japanese Business. Columbia Journal of World Business. Iss. 7.6. Pg. 4352. Giacomino, Don E, Michael D Akers, and Atsushi Fujita (1999). Personal Values of Japanese Business Managers. Business Forum. Iss. 24.12. Pg. 914. Gehrt, Kenneth C., Sherry Lotz, Soyeon Shim, Tomoaki Sakano, and Naoto Onzo (2005). Overcoming informal trade barriers among Japanese intermediaries: An attitudinal assessment. Agribusiness Iss. 21.1. Pg. 53. Syed H Akhter and Toshikazu Hamada (2003). Japanese Attitudes Toward American Business Involvement in Japan: An Empirical Investigation Revisited. The Journal of Consumer Marketing. Iss. 20.6. Pg. 526535. Mohammed Y. A. Rawwas, Ziad Swaidan, and AlKhatib Jamal (2006). Does Religion Matter? A Comparison Study of the Ethical Beliefs of Marketing Students of Religious and Secular Universities in Japan. Journal of Business Ethics Iss. 65.1. Pg. 6986. Lawrence, Robert Z., Saxonhouse, Gary R. (1991). Efficient or Exclusionist? The Import Behavior of Japanese Corporate Groups; Comments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Vol. 1. Pg. 311. Sullivan, Jeremiah J. (1992). Japanese Management Philosophies: From the Vacuous to the Brilliant. California Management Review. Iss. 34.2. Pg. 66. Maris G. Martinsons and Robert M. Davison (2007). Strategic Decision Making and Support Systems: Comparing American, Japanese and Chinese Management. Decision Support Systems. Iss. 43.1 Pg. 284. James W Westerman, Rafik I Beekun, Yvonne Stedham, and Jeanne Yamamura (2007). Peers versus National Culture: An Analysis of Antecedents to Ethical Decisionmaking. Journal of Business Ethics. Iss. 75.3. Pg. 239252. Chiaki Nakano (1997). A Survey Study on Japanese Managers' Views of Business Ethics. Journal of Business Ethics. Iss. 16.16. Pg. 17371751. K. Imazai and K. Ohbuchi. Conflict Resolution and Procedural Fairness in Japanese Work Organizations. Japanese Psychological Research. Iss. 44.2. Pg. 107112.
Myth3: Tung, Rosalie L. (Summer 1984). How to Negotiate with the Japanese. California Management Review. Vol. 26. Iss. 000004. ABI/INFORM Global. Pg. 6573. Kelley, Bill (Jul 1991). Culture Clash: West Meets East. Sales and Marketing Management. New York. Vol. 143. Iss. 8. Pg, 28. 5 pgs Seawright, Kristie Kay (1994). Woodland Product Quality in the Automobile Industry: The United States and Japan. Diss. The University of Utah.
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Myth4: Graham, John L. (Autumn 1986). Across the Negotiating Table from the Japanese. International Marketing Review. Pg 58 71. Kent, John (Sept. 2004). Training for International Success. Purification Magazine. Vol.46. Nos.9. Pg. 1. McDaniel, Edwin Ralph Japanese negotiating practices: Lowcontext communication in a highcontext culture. Diss. Arizona State University, 2000 Tung, Rosalie L. (Summer 1984). How to Negotiate with the Japanese. California Management Review. Vol. 26. Iss. 000004. ABI/INFORM Global. Pg. 6573.
Myth5: Koldau, Claudius. Meaning of Cross Cultural Differences. ISBM Report 14, 1996. Tung, Rosalie L. (Summer 1984). How to Negotiate with the Japanese. California Management Review. Vol. 26. Iss. 000004; ABI/INFORM Global. Pg. 6573. Dyer. Jeffrey H. and Wujin Chu (2nd Quarter 2000). The Determinants of Trust in SupplierAutomaker Relationships in the U.S., Japan and Korea. Journal of International Business Studies. Vol. 31. Iss. 2. Pg. 259285. 27 pgs., 4 charts. Gulbro, Robert and Paul Herbig (1995). Differences in Crosscultural Negotiation Behavior between Industrial Product and Consumer. Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing. 08858624, Vol. 10, Iss. 3. Lituchy, Terri Robin (1992). International and Intranational Negotiations in the United States and Japan: The Impact of Cultural Collectivism on Cognitions, Behaviors and Outcomes. Diss. The University of Arizona. Sherman, Linda (1990). Breaking the Intimacy Barrier. Japan Quarterly. Iss. 37.3. Pg. 304. Cohen, Reymond (2001). Resolving Conflict across Languages. Negotiation Journal.
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APPENDIX C
Table 1
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: POOLED SAMPLE AND BY COUNTRY
Variables Pooled US Japan Korea Sig. Diff.
(n = 453) (n = 135) (n = 101) (n = 217) * * * Trust 14.11 13.63 16.37 13.35 * * * Length 21.61 32.56 41.4 12.44 * * * Face 2042.56 1245.01 4989.54 1413.41 * * * Continuity 0.78 0.71 0.91 0.77 * * * Assistance 9.83 7.39 10.15 10.51 * * * Stock 0.04 0.00 0.11 0.03 * * *
Note: 1. The last column indicates whether the country means are significantly different from each other (Ftest). * * * Country samples are significantly different at α = 0.01.
Table2 SLECTED BUYER DIFFERENCES in BUYERSELLER STYLES International Climate Importance Pace Process Decision Making Market Polite with Great Very slow 1st, all A total AsianJapan group importance with a lot of general process with all many w/ Lg.term initial time items agreed levels idiosyncratic relationships spent on upon, then involved in nuances are what relationship details are the final matter most building discussed. decision.
NonAsian Sometimes Of less Time is Ordered Can be United viewed as importance, money process, either States aggressive or focus is upon expediting 1st to last. individual or confrontational. achieving is always group final results. critical process. Graham, John L. and Philip R. Cateora (2006). International Marketing. Irwin. Pg.338.
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COMBINATORICS IN THE THEORY OF PRODUCTION
José Villacís González University San PabloCEU, Spain
ABSTRACT Applying the factors of production to production, i.e. destroying them, depends on their nature, on the quantity used and on the technology employed. This statement, while true, is not by any means the whole story. Production depends in the main – be it in terms of quantity or content – on the order in which the factors of production are employed. In this work we bring combinatorics into direct contact with the theory of production, while fully admitting the limitations inherent in technology and the nature of the production process.
Keywords: Combination, Efficient Compensation, Symmetrical Efficiency, Permutation, Processes, Repetition, Variation. (JEL D00 Microeconomic Theory)
INTRODUCTION Inputs, along with capital equipment, take part in the production process in order to produce end products. The term process is precise and at the same time broad and vague. It intuitively and scientifically conveys the idea of combination of inputs or production factors.
Our idea of combination is a very specific one and it comes from Math. It refers to the different ways of arranging or ordering the elements involved in a combination.
I. PRODUCTION AND FUNDAMENTAL COMBINATORIAL ANALYSIS Depending on the order in the application of productive inputs, we can find various levels of production. According to the general concept of combinatorial theory in Math, this order in the application is called combination in the application. Consequently, there will be different production volumes depending on the number of possible combinations in the application of inputs.
In this study, we mainly try to measure the number of combinations in the application and thus the number of possible production volumes. By no means are we measuring the production volumes, but only the number of the different possible volumes.
The word combination is a generic name and it includes particular cases of mathematical theory: ordinary variations (without repetition), variations with repetition, ordinary permutations (without repetition), permutations with repetition and combinations themselves.
When referring to the number of combinations in the application of inputs, we are looking at ordinary permutations. But these represent a particular case within the ambit of this study. The number of combinations in the application of inputs can be calculated using the formula m! … m being the number of inputs. If we consider the manufacture of pants, then the inputs will be: the fabric, the buttons, the thread and the zipper. Four inputs in total. The possible combinations are 4! = 4.3.2.1=24. But production follows its own process and each process has a specific combination or order in the application. In the example given, the zipper cannot be sewn if the fabric is not cut, and the fabric cannot be cut if the roll has not been previously bought, etc. Similarly, you cannot fry an egg if you didn’t previously put oil in the pan. In this sense, the combinatorial possibilities are limited by the required nature of each productive process. Each process means a linked sequence or part of combination. However, there are combination possibilities in production: agriculture, the chemical industry and, of course, gastronomy provide us with many examples. An efficient producer will look for that combination which provides him or her with the largest production volume. That will be the optimum combination; the rest will be underoptimum combinations. In this study we seek to count or enumerate the number of possible combinations.
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II ORDINARY OR NONREPETITIVE VARIATIONS
We call an ordered process that arrangement of factors where the order in which the factors v1 are placed is important, and not just the proportion in which the factors are combined. Each process is defined by a specific arrangement of the factors (oil, garlic, parsley parsley, oil, garlic , etc.). Let us allow for the possibility that one or more factors do not apply; the existence of the different orders that define each process will be made possible by the reality implied by the nature of each production process and by the technology (there are techniques that allow buildings to be erected from the roof down). Despite the content of this article, we would say that order, a specific order, is fundamental to each process and that changing the order makes production at source impossible. Example: pan, oil and egg; it could never be egg first, then the pan and then the oil.
Let us consider two groups of factors: some are necessary and others are dispensable (we do not mean replaceable). When building a road the chippings, machinery, asphalt, etc. are necessary and fundamental, and the road signs, lighting and traffic might be considered dispensable.
Principles II.1. Let us define variant arrangements of possible production processes defined by m factors (v) arranged in groups of h elements. The number of possible processes will be Vm,h ; h II.2. Since each process is defined by an arrangement and each output, q, is determines the level of output. This means that the different groupings of h elements will determine different groups of different processes. II.3. The sum of the groups of possible processes in each type and the sum of the processes of all the possible h groups define the total possible output. This is an extension of points II.1. and II.2. II.4. For each arrangement of h elements there will be an efficient process and this will be the one that determines maximum output q. The rest of the processes (for each h grouping) will be suboptimum. II.5. There will be a chain of efficient processes, in the form of a divergent series as the h grouping orders increase: Vh < m, ... h+1, h+2, h+3, h+n = m. This statement is a consequence of points II.3. and II.4. Thus we can state that, as we introduce more nonrepetitive factors v, we achieve higher output. Since each arrangement involves a number of processes, we shall take the efficient ones in each grouping. We call this principle the principle of increasing output arrangement. II.6. Heaving defined an output function: q = f (v1, v2, … vi . . .vn), we can say that, if increasing variant arrangements are possible: vm,h < vm,h+1 < vm,h+2 < ...... II.7. The difference between the output for two successive groupings: vm,h+1 and vm,,h is a positive value of q: q. II.8. Considering two successive differences, for example, of the type in point II.7, such as those relating to the processes defined by one of the arrangements vm,h+2 and vm,h+1, another by vm,h+1, we find, as we have said, positive output values. These increases can be of two types, referred to as: II.8.1 q1 < q2, in which there would be economies of scale. II.8.2 q1 > q2, in which there would diseconomies of scale. II.9. If we establish a difference between the outputs relating to the processes defined by variations of the same order, in particular, between the efficient one and another, which is suboptimum or inefficient, we can say that there will have been a variant economy of scale. We call this principle variant economy of scale. II.10. If, for any variant arrangement of any order h < m, the corresponding process is invalid: vm,h q = 0, this will necessarily mean that a fundamental or necessary factor V is missing in one of the arrangements. 124 J. Villacís González Volume 7 – Fall 2009 II.11. If, given two successive arrangements of groups h and h+1, both defining an equally efficient process, or two efficient processes that each determined the same level of output qi, then a useless or dispensable or indifferent factor exists in the final arrangement. If it is a repeated variation it can be regarded as a dispensable factor that is repeated and generates diseconomies of scale. But if it is an ordinary variation such as h < m, the final factor of h+1 is irrelevant and does not exist in the output function. We call this principle the principle of absolute inutility. II.12. Given any two arrangements of the same order they will determine processes with different levels of efficiency and thus output, but whatever the latter, these will always result in higher output than those relating to the variant arrangements of orders lower than h1, provided that there are no irrelevant factors (in consequence of points II.1., II.2. and II.3.). We call this principle absolute utility principle. II.13. Given two arrangements of the same order h, which each determined a process and an output associated with each process, one level of production will be higher and the other lower. But if in either of the two a factor vi is replaced by another vi, the value of h remaining constant, i.e., the same order, and higher output is achieved, we would say that these factors are more efficient than the ones replaced. We call this the principle of factor efficiency. II.14. If, given two arrangements of the same group or order h, one efficient and the other defining a less efficient process, in the less efficient process a value vi is substituted for another vi, and this factor is efficient, it will achieve output equal to that of the efficient process. There will thus be within each category of factors so far established— necessary and dispensable factors—some that will be efficient and others that will be less efficient. We call this principle the principle of efficient compensation. II.15. Given two arrangements of the same order h, both with at least one efficient factor vi, if we consider the less efficient one we shall see that it defines a process that generates a level of production qi. If there is a better arrangement of the same order h, or what amounts to the same thing, that defines a more efficient process, but one without that efficient factor vi so that, even without this factor, the level of output is at least the same, we would say that this is a compensatory arrangement of efficiency. We call this principle the principle of compensatory efficient arrangement. II.16. If a production process generated by an arrangement vm,h is efficient, it can engender an output qi, which would be the same as another engendered by a particular process by an immediately higher arrangement vm,h+1, which was not efficient. If this is the case, we will say that there exists a compensation of efficiency over and above the number of factors. We call this principle the principle of efficient compensation over and above the number. II.17. Given different levels of output, each level or amount can be the product of different processes generated by arrangements of different values of h. Thus efficient processes with lower orders of h will coexist with inefficient processes with higher orders of h. This is a consequence of point II.16. II.18. A vm,h arrangement could never occur in which a necessary factor did not appear and, however the order included, the case in which h = m1 cannot compensate for any lower arrangement, including h = 1, if a necessary factor is present in the latter case (production of cigarettes: if there are no tobacco leaves, any number of other factors can never compensate another arrangement or process in which there are only tobacco leaves). We call this principle the principle of impossibility of compensation. II.19. If, in an arrangement that defines a process the order (a fixed order) is important for a set n1 of factors and another set n2, the order can be altered, so that n1 + n2 = h, the number of possible processes will be less than the set of processes in which the order of all the factors can be varied. The number of processes possible will be a variation of order n2 = h n1, i.e., vm,n = vm,h n, logically producing the following inequality: vm,hn < vm,h. We shall call the set of n1 factors fixed arrangement and the process thus fixed the fixed order process. II.20. If we accept, in a function of production, the existence of necessary resources, we can consider two types of fixed arrangements within a large set of fixed arrangements of order n1: one will be that of the factors necessary to each other and which we shall call n1.1 and another, n 1.2, of necessary factors together with a subgroup of certain 125 Combinatorics in the Theory of Production unnecessary or dispensable resources, which are susceptible to forming a fixed arrangement with the necessary ones, n1, we shall call them relatively dispensable factors. II.20.1 We thus have n1.1 Є n1, n1.2 Є n1, n1.1 + n1.2 = n 1 and n1 + n2 = h, h being the arrangement concerned (h II.20.2 We shall call the fixed arrangement n1.1 solid fixed arrangement, since without it production would be completely impossible. And we shall call the fixed arrangement n 1.2 the complementary fixed arrangement. II.21. Given a level of income, the economic unit will append all its income on the h factors that determine the efficient arrangement, without the order affecting the expenditure in practice (production p1 = price of the factor v1, and p2 the price of the factor v2 thus income p1v1 + p2v2 = p2v2 + p1v1). The product’s commutative property is applicable to expenditure. II.22. Since various processes exist for each arrangement h, one efficient and others that are suboptimum (the rest), sub optimum processes of different higher orders for various orders will coexist with optimum process of lower orders (only one optimum) (in accordance with point II.16., “principle of efficient compensation over and above the number”). The combination of processes that, originated by variations of factors of various orders, determine the same level of output will be called: homogeneous field. II.23. Efficient production processes are found within the homogeneous output field. And if with the same level of expenditure of an income a number of factors can be acquired and the arrangement of these factors determines an efficient process, the inefficient combination will never be chosen. We call this principle the principle of efficient expenditure. II.24. The homogeneous output field that does not correspond with efficient and thus costeffective arrangements, is called inefficient order universe, since it covers the sum of all the variations for all possible orders, in turn, do not define efficient processes. II.25. If we call cost at consumption or destruction valued in monetary terms, of factors that are present in production, there will be a cost for each specific arrangement of factors. An since there are various processes for arrangement h that each determine different outputs, there will be as many functions of unit cost as the number of arrangements. There will be a number vm,h of functions of unit cost. II.26. It follows from points II.5, II.23, II.24 and II.25. that there will be various cost curves associated with the inefficient order universe and, since they correspond with lower output levels, unit costs will be higher. For this reason, we can stated that the lowest unit cost curve relating to a group of processes associated to each variant arrangement h, and to all the increments of h, (h1 . . . h+n) is that relating only to the efficient processes. As we said in point II.4., for each order group h of factors there will be a process that will be the efficient one and it is the one achieves the highest levels of output (with the same number h of factors v). II.27. If two arrangements h formed by different factors/elements separately determined two possible processes, then the possibility that they can be used together exists. We call this principle the principle of ordered activity. II.28. If two arrangements of different of different orders such as h and 1 (h ≠ 1) can each define separate processes, then used together they will define a different process. We call this process the principle of strict additivity. II.29. If two processes are defined by two arrangements vm,h+∆x and vm,h, when ∆x 0 and the difference between their two consecutive levels of output is qh+∆x qh = ∆ q i so that ∆ qi 0 also, we shall then say that the arrangement is continuous. We call this principle the principle or order continuity 126 J. Villacís González Volume 7 – Fall 2009 III. REPETITIVE VARIATIONS Concept We shall consider those processes defined by a specific arrangement of factors, accepting the possibility that one or more is repeated and that one or more is not involved in the arrangement. It is a type of variant arrangement in which the order is important in the sense we have been expounding: that a particular order defines a process and thus there will as many productive processes (and thus, outputs q) as there are arrangements. Principles III.1. We define arrangements as repeated variant arrangements when the order of the factors can be altered, one or more factors can be dispensed with and one more factors can be repeated. Each arrangement will determine a process and each process will engender an output. III.2. The number of possible arrangement is vhm and consequently this will be the number of processes for each arrangement h. Thus the number of processes will be mh, m being, as we have seen, the number of these productive factors involved in each process. As the orders h + 1, h + 2 vary, the number of possible processes will increase. III.3. For a group of possible processes defined by an arrangement h ( vhm ) there will be an efficient solution. III.4. Considering all the possible arrangement 0 < h ≤ m, we shall also consider all the possible processes. If each arrangement determines an efficient process, all the others being suboptimum, there will be a set of efficient processes for the set of all the possible arrangements. III.5. It follows from point II.17. of ordinary variations that if, given an arrangement h, inefficient processes exist (except the efficient one) that engender an output qi, the efficient solution of the orders below order h will determine some processes that also engender an output of qi. Thus there will be levels of production that are determined by more than one process of different orders. We call this principle, as in point II.16. of ordinary variations, principle of efficient compensation over and above the number. III.6. If, given an arrangement of m factors of order h, starting from h, more orders are taken as repeated production increments decrease, we say that h is the order saturation point for repetition The essence of this argument is the law of diminishing returns when the same factor is repeatedly applied and saturation point is reached. We call this principle the principle of saturation through repetition III.7. Given a repetitive variant arrangement vhm in which a fundamental factor appears, there could never be another process equally efficient however large its arrangement, even h + n = m 1, if, in the arrangement that defines that process the necessary factor does not appear. This is because if the necessary factor is not present the process is invalid and its output zero. Example: fertilizers, water, tractors, perpetual artificial light, working the land, etc. but no seeds. We call this principle the principle of impossibility of compensation III.8. Given two repetitive arrangement vhm and another, vh+1m in which the necessary factors are common to both, if saturation has not been reached, the processes vh+1m will generate higher output than those of vhm. This means that both the factors and any repetition of the factors are productive. We call this obvious principle the principle of factor productivity III.9. Given two variant repetitive arrangements within the set of order h: vh=k=k1+K2m, they will result in different processes and also different output if the factor that is repeated k1 times and that is vi, and the one that is repeated k2 times is the other factor vi (vi and vi are found in the arrangement vh=km). This consequence is due to the fact that the productivity of different factors is also different. We call this principle the difference of factors principle III.10. The acceptance of processes defined by ordinary or nonrepetitive variant arrangements does not necessarily imply the acceptance of the corresponding variant repetitive arrangement. The explanation for this is found in the possibility that the repetition of any factor may reduce output once saturation point has been reached. 127 Combinatorics in the Theory of Production III.11. Given two variant arrangement, one ordinary or nonrepetitive and the other repetitive, both of the same order h, the number of possible processes is greater in the repetitive variation vhm = mh than in the nonrepetitive variation ym,h = m. (m1) (m2) . . . . (mh+1); Mh > m(m1) (m2) . . . (mh+1). III.12. In general and due to saturation caused by repetition, a process derived from a specific arrangement (one in particular) is more efficient (we do not say totally efficient), if it is an ordinary arrangement then if it is an ordinary arrangement than if it is a repetitive arrangement. This generalisation is not valid in all cases. In particular it is not valid for repetitive economies of scale. III.13. It follows from points II.11. and II.12. that if the number of possible processes is greater in ordinary variations and diseconomies or scale or saturation due to repetition occur more frequently in repetitive variations, the probability of finding inefficient processes is greater in repetitive variations than in ordinary variations. We call this principle probability of inefficiency in repetition principle. III.14. It follows from point II.13. and from point II.7. that the above principle of probability of inefficiency in repetition is partially invalid in the case where the fundamental or necessary factor is repeated. Example: two seeds are more than one seed and three more than two. Since the saturation of necessary resources is also possible we can only say that saturation or inefficient processes associated with repetition of necessary resources is lower than in the case of unnecessary or dispensable resources. III.15. Since the existence of certain economies of scale q1 < q2 < qn is also possible in the case of some unnecessary or dispensable factors, if these coexist with diseconomies of scale q1 < q2 < qn of the necessary factors, the probability of increased output resulting from the former being offset or absorbed by the latter is indeterminate. III.16. Given any arrangement, if we move onto a higher arrangement, we can say that output increases proportionally if the factors are complementary in a proportion k, and in addition, this proportion continues to apply after the repetition. We call this principle complementary repetition. It can be expressed as V h=h1+h2m, if h1/h2 = k If _ > 0 and _. h, then _ (h1 + h2) = _ h1 + h2, then _ h1/ _ h2 = k. If a process associated with Vmh determines a level of output qi, after h1 and h2 (complementary) have been repeated _ times _ ql will occur, it confirms our proportional increase. III.17. Given a repetitive arrangement, if a factor Vi that is repeated _ times, and the former ceases to be repeated _ times and the other is repeated _ times more so that the output associated with a process remains constant, we say that it is a perfect repetitive substitute. III.18. The existence of a set of processes deriving from repetitive variant arrangements requires the existence of non saturated productive factors and that the arrangement, whatever it is, the technically possible. We shall call this logical and simple principle the principle of productive rationality. III.19. The existence of repetitive variant arrangements of order h, in which at least the necessary factors that determine an inefficient processes in that arrangement are present, implies that all the processes greater than h (h + n = 1 < m – 1) are also inefficient. III.20. The economic unit will spend its income on acquiring factors of a process generated by an efficient arrangement. In terms of expenditure, the arrangement is immaterial and only the number of factors matters. We call this principle the principle of efficient expenditure. III.21. As the income of the business increases, the acquisition of factors of successively greater orders that originate with each order h, an efficient process, will also increase. The union of infinite points of expenditure in efficient processes will determine the repetitive variant isocost line. III.22. The variant isocost line will be different if economies of scale exist in the acquisition of repetitive factors (such as discounts for bulk purchases) than if there are no discounts. 128 J. Villacís González Volume 7 – Fall 2009 IV. GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF OUTPUT IN VARIATIONS IV.1. Given an efficient process in a specific arrangement within the set of repetitive and nonrepetitive arrangements of order h, the return obtained by the businessman is the difference between the least efficient process and the most efficient one (which is the one we are considering). IV.2. The return obtained by the factors is the output obtained in the least efficient process within a specific arrangement within a set of repetitive or nonrepetitive arrangement of order h (argument implicit in point II.24.). V. PERMUTATIONS Concept Let us consider the various arrangements possible when all the elements or factors of production are present. There are no dispensable factors in permutations and therefore they are all necessary. Permutations are closer than variations to the function of classic production of microeconomics in which all the factors participate. V.1. The number of processes associated with each arrangement will be equal to the number of all possible permutations. This means that it is equal to m! V.2. The number of processes associated with permutative arrangement is less than the processes associated with repetitive variations and, since repetitive variations determine a greater number of processes than nonrepetitive variations, we can conclude that the greater number of processes associated with an arrangement is the repetitive variation. On the other hand, the number of processes associated with a permutation is greater than that associated with an ordinary variation (logically we have the same number of factors in either case). Then in the set of possible h arrangements and their classes the number of possible processes will follow this order in decreasing fashion: V m h (repetitive variations) = m > pm (ordinary permutations) = m! > Vm,h (ordinary variations) = m (m1) ... (mh+1). V.3. There will only be one order h = m (out of all of them) in the permutative arrangement and within this order there will be an efficient process, all the others being inefficient or suboptimum. We call this principle the sole efficiency principle. V.4. For each case of ordinary variant arrangements, with repetition and permutation, the one with relatively more sub optimum processes in each case is the repetitive variation. This statement is a consequence of point V.3., and the fact that in variations an efficient process exist for each order, so for various orders there will be a series of efficient processes. This is not the case with permutations that only have one order h = m. V.5. Since for a given income, the economic unit obtains the efficient arrangement and, in addition, all the factors are necessarily obtained, we can say that the isocost line is one point. We call this statement sole efficient cost principle. V.6. Since m! arrangements exist, and thus m! processes, the number of inefficient or suboptimum processes is m! – 1. VI. REPETITIVE PERMUTATIONS Concept In the arrangements of the repetitive permutation type all the elements are present, and one or more of them can be repeated. This means that all the productive factors are present and can be repeated. VI.1. If, as we have been considering, a process exist which is associated with each arrangement, the number of a,b,c processes to be considered will be P m = m!/ a! b! c! a, b and c each being the number of times that each factor can be repeated, so that: a + b + c + ... = m. VI.2. As we allow a greater number of times that each factor can be repeated, the smaller number of the processes there will be (m!/a! > m!/b!, if b>a). 129 Combinatorics in the Theory of Production VI.3. Given a number of processes associated with a repetitive permutation, there will be one that will be the efficient one, the rest being suboptimum. The number of suboptimum processes will be (m!/ a! b! … 1). VI.4. Given two permutations m!/a! and m!/b! each one will have its number of processes and there will be two efficient processes, one for each of them. VI.5. Given two repetitive permutations m!/a! and m!/b! in which a = b but the factor repeated is Vi in the other, if the a b efficient process associated (out of all of them) with P m produces higher output (is more efficient) than P m, (even when both have the same number of arrangements), we say that factor vi is more efficient than vi. a,b c VI.6. Given two repetitive per mutative arrangements of the same order v m and v m and which a + b = c. we can say that the efficient process associated (out of all of them) with the first is greater than the second. This is interpreted in the sense that the process in which more than one factor is repeated is more productive than another in which one single factor is repeated intensively (in both, as can be seen, the total number of repetitions in the same, c = a + b). This is the result of decreasing output. VI.7. If an alternative exist in the repetition of different factors, for example: vi alone, or vi on its own or as part of vi or part of vi and so on with all the factors, provided that all the permutations have the same order a + b +c = n, there will be an efficient process better then the rest for each arrangement. VI.8. It is possible that in a repetitive permutation two arrangements might occur that would determine more than one equally efficient process (that are not of maximum efficiency) in terms of the same level of output. VII. RATIOS BETWEEN VARIATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS VII.1. Given a process originated by an ordinary variation of degree h, the acceptance of all the remaining factors converts it into a sufficient process, which is an ordinary variation of the degree h = m, that is, into an ordinary permutation. VII.2. It follows 1 that, given an ordinary variation that determines an efficient process, in order to convert it into a sufficient and also efficient process, that is, a permutation, the arrangement of the remaining factors would also have to be efficient. We shall call this principle the principle or efficient symmetrical complementariness. VII.3. Given an ordinary variation of degree h that determines an efficient process, if it multiplied by _ > 0{_ _ R+}, each one of the factors is transformed into a variation with repetition. If the product qi also increases by _ , so that _qi, we would say that the process deriving from the variation with repetition is a homogeneous transformation of the ordinary variation. VII.4. If, given a variation with repetition of the type described in point VII.3., it is a homogeneous transformation of the ordinary variation, if the factors missing are accepted until it becomes a permutation, such tat those factors that are missing are also multiplied by , they must also be efficiently ordered. This is a consequence of point VII.2., the principle of efficient complementariness. VIII. COMBINATIONS This type of arrangements of m elements of order h (groups of factors of group h) in which h are different factors that can be grouped. Example: the arrangement {a, b} excludes that of {b, a}. VIII.1. The number of possible processes derived from a combination of h elements will be the number of these combinations; Cm,h = m! / h! (m – h)! VIII.2. In a certain sense this is the consideration of process in microeconomics, since it is irrelevant to speak of a process comprising 10% water and 90% fertilizer, it is the same as 90% fertilizer and 10% water, as we have said. The distinction we make is that certain factors can be omitted and arrangements of various orders can be made. 130 J. Villacís González Volume 7 – Fall 2009 VIII.3. In each number of processes defined by a combination C m,h there will be one that is efficient. Thus, for each order there will be an efficient process, hence as the orders vary, the number of efficient processes will vary. VIII.4. Any arrangement of a combination will give a positive ( + ), or rational, process or ∆q > 0, provided that the necessary factors are never missing (paper, at least, in the production of books). Conversely, if a necessary factor is missing, whatever the combinatorial order the process will be invalid (∆q = 0) or irrational. VIII.5. If all the factors or elements are necessary and the number of dispensable factors is nil, then all of the will form part of the combinatorial set and the order h = m and therefore the number of possible combinatorial will be equal to the unit: Cm,h = m! / m! (mm)! = 1 Since, when all the factors strictly comply with the function of general production q = f (V1, V2, . . . Vn). We shall call this principle the principle of unitary combination or complete combination. VIII.6. When all the factors are necessary and therefore the complete combination is equal to the unit, it will determine a single process and this process, which is the only one possible, is then an unmistakably efficient process. This is a consequence of point VIII.5. We call this principle the principle of the single solution ( Cm,h > 1) VIII.7. Given a level of income, there will be a cost in factors of an arrangement that defines an efficient process. The combination of the cost rations with factors of efficient processes relating to various combinatorial orders will be the combinatorial isocost line. VIII.8. In each group of combinations of order h, one efficient process exists and the rest that are inefficient or sub optimum. Them it is possible that combinations of various orders might have equally inefficient processes in terms of output. The coexistence of inefficient processes of a higher order with an efficient process of a lower order in terms of output will also b possible. VIII.9. If efficient processes of lower orders exist they will never be chosen and, therefore, factors of inefficient combinations of higher orders will be bought, if both the achieve the same level of output. VIII.10. If two equally efficient processes within the same combinatorial order (not the most efficient, since there will only be one), it cannot be concluded that for higher orders there is the same number of processes of equal efficiency. VIII.11. Given two combinations of different orders that determine efficient processes, the combination of the intermediate processes of indeterminate orders does not guarantee that all these points are efficient. VIII.12. It follows from point II.29. of ordinary variations that if there are two combinations of orders h and + ∆x respectively, when ∆x0, there are also two processes that determine two outputs qh+∆x and qh whose difference is a ∆q0, and we can say that it is a continuous combination. We shall call this principle the principle of continuous combination. IX. REPETITIVE ORDINARY VARIATIONS, REPETITIVE ORDINARY PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS From point II.29. of ordinary variations and point VIII.13. of combinations, it follows that, given a set of arrangement of any type (variations, permutations, combinations, etc.), defined between two orders h and h + n, including the two (closed) a process will exist that achieve a maximum output value and a minimum value a some point between these two arrangement h and h+n. X. CONCLUSION We use the combinatorial theory in Math to analyse different areas of microeconomics. We believe that in the theory of production, just as in the theory of utility, the idea of combination has been given a generic consideration, as if it were a set of goods, which will in a particular way participate in production. Such particular way is our focus of consideration and is explained through the combinatorial theory. 131 Combinatorics in the Theory of Production At the same time, in Math, combinatorial theory is a field that covers other more specific areas, including variations, repetitive and nonrepetitive permutations and combinations themselves. Each of those areas take part in the theory of production as analytical tools. However, the very nature of production places highly strict limitations on the combinatorial dimension. Each production process must inevitably follow a certain combination. It is useless to arrange the mineral first if there is no oven, and the oven is no good if it is not heated first. The examples are manifold. On the contrary, there are more flexible productions, which offer broad combinatorial possibilities – something that cooks know well. We believe that this is a new scientific approach in microeconomics. 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S. economy. Just when you thought economic turmoil was tamed, the government discloses another piece of discouraging economic news. The latest unemployment rate, for instance, which was released yesterday, shows that the U. S. economy has been shedding more jobs than ever before, almost 600,000 jobs per month. The current unemployment rate stands at 8.9%, translated roughly to 13.8 million people officially unemployed. Add to this number those jobless people who are not officially counted as unemployed, then the extent of joblessness will be even far greater than what official data shows. Given the fact, that unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator; there is no improvement in the employment situation in sight. The rate is expected to climb to more than 10.5% by the end of this year. Be advised, however, even if the unemployment rate ascends to that level, it is nothing compared to the nearly 27% that occurred during the Great Depression. So, call this crisis whatever you want but please don’t call it a Great Depression. Likewise, the statistics about the growth rate of this economy are not any better than the employment condition. The latest official statistics shows that the U.S. economy has contracted during the first quarter of 2009 at a rate of 6.1%. My intent in writing this article is not, of course, to reiterate the bad news; it is rather to focus on a few issues that have not been given the attention they deserve. First, what does this crisis says about capitalism? Second, why this crisis is so different from the ones that happened before, and finally what can we learn from the Chinese triumphant experience? WHAT DOES THIS CRISIS SAY ABOUT CAPITALISM? It says a lot. It simply shows that the system is vulnerable to misuse and manipulation by irresponsible profiteers. Capitalism is, of course, based on sound principles such as monetary incentives, competition, limited government involvement, and economic freedom. However, sometimes the outcome of the system may not be desirable, equitable, or acceptable to everyone. Without a doubt, when people are motivated by monetary incentives – the crux of capitalism –they do good things for themselves and for the society. In particular, when they are challenged by competition, they try to behave responsibly and as efficiently as possible. Nonetheless, they may occasionally succumb to the temptations and overcome by greed, thus resorting to deceptive practices and fraudulent tactics. This is not, of course, the first time something as disruptive as this crisis is taking us by surprise. It is however deeper and more widespread this time. In the past, we have experienced instances of companies in distress because of improper decisions, or deceitful practices. Arthur Anderson and Enron may represent two good examples. However, if there are only one or two companies in trouble, it would be easier and less consequential for the economy to let them go bankrupt. But, if there are too many, bankruptcy will be extremely costly for the whole economy. That is why it is almost impossible to find a painless solution at this time. Politicians have tried to find an expedient way out, but there is none. French president Mr. Sarkosy once rightfully said “the financial crisis is not the crisis of capitalism it is the crisis of a system that has distanced itself from fundamental values of capitalism, the system that betrayed the spirit of capitalism.” To operate honorably, capitalism requires; first, complete transparency; well informed consumers that are protected by law and are able to judge correctly the value of what they are getting or what are at stake when they engage in business transactions. Second, monetary integrity; people in capitalistic countries have bestowed upon the government the monopoly right to issue money. Money is a contract between government and its people that should be fulfilled fairly and honestly. Creating money out of thin air under fiat money systems to disguise the government’s fiscal capriciousness makes the monetary system subject to abuse by government and it jeopardizes the price stability. Those who blame the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central banking system, for reinforcing this crisis may have a valid point in the sense that fiat (paper) money can be potentially misused by government. The key purpose of money is to facilitate transactions and to allow people to store values for future use. If money is misused by government, public confidence will deteriorate and fiat money loses its value and high inflation will ensue. To deal with the current crisis, the U.S. government has financed 40% of its stimulus package by creating money out of thin air. We cannot easily get away from the effects of such a policy. They will materialize sooner or later. 133 The U.S. Economic Crisis: Ideology versus Realities UNIQUE ASPECTS OF CURRENT CRISIS I believe this crisis, unlike the ones that happened before, is mostly due to structural changes especially in the global economy. Such changes have been in the process of developing, for a number of years. First, this crisis was triggered by disaster in the financial sector, it happened after the triumph of market economy for a number of years. Disintegration of the Soviet Union and China’s rising to power, along with a few other countries, gave capitalism a big boost. Furthermore, there was the revolution in information technology and the consequential expanding interconnectedness among nations, and the ensuing international equalizations that leveled the playing field. Technology and information moved swiftly throughout the world. In attempt to improve their bottom line, the U.S. companies moved their production facilities to cheapresource countries. Formerly less developed nations that used to be the net importer of manufactured product from the U.S. and western countries and the exporter of cheap but strategic raw materials became more developed and the exporters of manufactured products themselves. Take the case of Iran, for instance. Human rights issues aside, this country has improved economically to a considerable degree in recent years. The U.S. and its allies lost this lucrative market by imposing economic sanctions imposed on this country. It is now an economic as well as political power in the Middle East that the U.S. and the West have to reckon with. Iran is the key source of experts to neighboring countries, especially to wartorn Iraq, from manufactured products to foods, and construction materials, even building bricks. The country now enjoys a high degree of selfsufficiency, manufacturing everything from fighter jets to automobiles and to launching of satellites to orbit. In a fascinating book entitled: “The Tyranny of the Dead ideas” Mr. Matt Miller argues that this economic crisis is generally due to some irreversible forces of globalization that have not served the U.S. favorably. He explains while the world economic paradigm has changed, we have been oblivious to that and have held on to many oldfashioned ideas that no longer serve us well. The current economic turmoil, Miller argues, has led to the erosion of our confidence in the free market system and its workability in the 21st century. Because of globalization and technological changes, the U.S. economy has changed structurally and so should its economic system. However, our business and political leaders, and conservative economists have not done enough to ameliorate it. These people are resistant to change because they are enslaved to what the author calls the “dead ideas.” For instance, despite the fact that globalization has led to equalization of the relative wage rate, American workers are still reluctant to accept lower wage rates and prefer to remain unemployed. American companies can no longer make enough money to pay for expensive benefits that these companies are required to provide for their employees in the face of global cutthroat competition by foreign counterparts that are subsidized by their home governments. Employer based healthcare makes jobs vulnerable to economic cycles, he says. When companies downsize or go out of business during an economic downturn, workers’ healthcare and pension security are at jeopardy. The escalating cost of healthcare for business firms, as well as for the individuals, is eating away the real income, and is weakening the competitiveness of our industries in the global market. It is time to remove these additional burdens from private companies and expect government to provide healthcare and pension benefits for American workers. We should challenge the notion that unconditional free trade is good for America, he argues, on the grounds that there is a conflict of interest between the companies benefiting from free trade and the national interest. His solution is to provide incentives for those companies that are hurt by free trade, possibly through changes in corporate tax system such as basing it on value added. No doubt, people who shop at WalMart or Target stores are reaping the benefits of free trade by being able to buy inexpensive madeinChina products. However, those losing their jobs to cheap imports do not like the free trade. As societies advance, the demand for public services provided by government increases, consequently the cost of government operation. That leaves no choice for government but to increase taxes because they are the only major source of public revenue for government, especially in developed countries. Often, the gap between revenue and outlay leaves a huge deficit in the government budget; one of the ill effects of this gap is the accumulation of national debt and financial dependency on foreign countries. The best way to avoid deficit is for government to collect more taxes, according to Mr. Miller. Taxes will go up regardless of what kind of administration is in power and what economic philosophy dictates its decisions, he argues. Although politicians may not tell us publicly, taxes do go up. It is a mathematical law. So, let’s increase taxes and save the economy. The current economic crisis has also revealed the unfairness of corporate compensation plans, and how the link between CEOs compensation and their performance is nothing but a myth. Many of these CEOs were rewarded handsomely by the board of directors despite their mediocre, or often dismal, performance. The average annual compensation of a CEO in the United States is at least 36 times larger than the average earnings of an ordinary employee who works for his company. The 134 R. Varjavand Volume 7 – Fall 2009 author believes that growing public awareness of such an unfair income distribution scheme in this country “is potentially explosive,” implying that public revolt against it is probable. More importantly, the development of a dangerous idea that we can always live beyond our means and somehow get away with it has created a sense of apathy in American consumers as well as government officials. In other words, we think that we can constantly gamble our future for the sake of current gratification, a Realities mentality that has survived for many decades and has forced us to the impasse. The inability to find a sensible solution to our debt problem has forced us to resort to crafty strategies, some of which have further immersed many of us into financial overcommitments and further debtrelated problems and the ensuing massive default. This situation has further contributed to the widening economic inequality since poor people do not enjoy equal access to loans and credit. In fact, such viewpoints seem logical and relevant indicating that we, as a nation, are faced with a much deeper and wider crisis of a different nature. It is mostly the result of causes that are external to our economy; hence they are not entirely controllable. The traditional fiscal and monetary policy, therefore, may no longer work effectively to get us out of this crisis. CAN WE LEARN ANYTHING FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE? The data supplied by the government shows that the Chinese economy grew between 8 to 12% per year from 1991 to 2008. Even though, all other major economies are in turmoil, this economy is still growing at the rate of 6.1% per year which is projected to increase to 7.5% for next year according to IMF. The Chinese GDP has been growing on a nonstop basis for the past 17 years, defying the law of business cycles. It has been very successful in exploiting the market forces to its advantage. Since 1978 its GDP has increased more than twelvefold to becoming one of the highest total GDP countries in the world, it is currently ranked number 3 in the world. Thanks to practical implementation of the market system. Deng Xiaoping once described their economic system as “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics”. He also once said, “It doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white, so long as it catches mouse” indicating the emphasis on pragmatism by the Chinese leadership when it comes to economic approach as well as to foreign policy, which is primarily based on building welcoming relationship with other countries, especially with its neighbors, the so called “smile Diplomacy”. The successful Chinese experience will definitely point to the fact that a sensible diplomacy, based on mutual respect, plays a decisive role in economic development at the age of globalization. Positive image building has been at the top of the Chinese global agenda as manifested by its successful hosting of the 2008 Olympics. Today, many of its old enemies are its strong trade partners. In other words, China has tried to diffuse the legacy of fear and domination and engage in confidence building and securing support of its neighbors and major trade partners. To that end, trade barriers have been dismantled and exportpromoting policies have been put into operation, especially through public enterprises (P.E.’s). As a result, China’s heavy industries have grown, advanced, and are operating profitably. They saved a big share of their profit to plow back into the stateowned companies as investment. Consequently, China need not rely on individuals for saving; most of the investible funds come from public enterprises. To seek the support of other countries, China has extended its financial aids to many countries with no string attached, especially to the African nations. Accordingly, there has been a tremendous flow of valuable resources to this country from Africa and from the Middle East. One of the costly drawbacks of the Bush administration’s foreign policy, which was mainly based on a unilateral approach, was that it helped China to shun away from being the focus of world criticism for its poor record of human rights because that honor had gone to the U.S. The decline in the role of the U.S. since the invasion of Iraq has served China quite well in gaining its power as the moral and economic authority, and has turned it into a dependable world stakeholder. Chinese politics have been influenced by its desire to progress economically. Its government has been very decisive, and this decisiveness has helped to successfully attract foreign investment by providing these investors a sense of assurance and a safety net backed by a strong and a resolute government. What makes this country distinctively successful in its quest for economic prosperity are: 1) high rate of saving, making this country self sufficient and not at the mercy of other countries for funds. The rate of capital formation has been high; more than 25% per year in recent years. Most of such investments are in infrastructures of the country, thus facilitating the long term growth of the economy. Even though the foreign multinational enterprises have invested in China, theirs has played a minor role and most of the public investment in China is financed by savings by government enterprises; 2) the cost of capital has been tremendously low or possibly near zero giving Chinese business firms a competitive advantage over foreign counterparts. In addition, exports promotion policies have been very successful in placing this country at the top of high export countries, with huge surplus and huge foreign exchange reserves which is nearly $1.5 trillion at this time; 3) Chinese 135 The U.S. Economic Crisis: Ideology versus Realities government does not allow excessive speculation in the stock market, especially by individuals. Avoiding such destabilizing speculations creates an additional safety net for investors. Even though this country has experienced a boom in real estate, just as the United States did, if the price bubble burst in China, the consumers are not going to suffer as much as they did in the U.S., because most of the real estate properties are owned by institutional investors and by the public enterprises. Therefore, if there are losses, most of them will be absorbed by the Chinese public sector; 4) China has a reputation for being a lowprice producer in the world, thanks to inexpensive labor and to the stateowned subsidized business entities. That is why consumers in the U.S. can enjoy low prices at WalMart and at almost all the other stores; finally, 5) another unique positive factor concerning China is that since most of its government’s revenue is generated from public enterprises, the tax burden for the private sector is fairly light. The corporate sector pays only 7% of the total taxes. Such a system has made government budget more unwavering because its revenue is almost resectionproof. No doubt we will see the end of the crisis in the U.S. and the beginning of economic recovery; however, after all the dust has settled, we may end up reconciling with less than what we used to, a lower standard of living. Because the U.S. will be the big loser from current economic/financial turmoil compared to any other country. 136 M. M. Campbell Volume 6 - Fall 2009 NAFTA’S MAIN OBJECTIVES INCLUDED THE ACHIEVEMENT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST FIFTEEN YEARS: WERE THESE GOALS REALIZED? Michael M. Campbell Florida A&M University, USA ABSTRACT The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States of America eliminated tariffs on trade between these countries. From the Agreement’s implementation in 1994 there have been many reports, from proponents and opponents alike, The purpose of this study is to determine if the agreement had accomplished its objectives of increased trade, economic growth and development in the region during its first fifteen years of implementation. Changes in trade (exports & imports), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), wages earned, and employment activity within the Region, for the period 1994 through 2008, were calculated and analyzed. The economic data examined confirmed that NAFTA had a positive impact on the North American Region with Mexico being the greatest beneficiary economically. Changes in trade were subject to regression analysis that confirmed they were significant at the 95% confidence level. Continued growth in employment and wages were evident during the period, with both Canada and Mexico experiencing substantially more growth than the United States. The data supported the premise that Mexico had experienced sustained positive changes in its imports/exports, GDP, wages and employment from 1994 through 2008. Although growth in employment and wages earned could not always be directly credited to NAFTA, it was evident that economic growth did have a positive impact on the region through the dissolution of tariffs and trade barriers. NAFTA AGREEMENT The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was approved by the U.S. Congress, the U.S. Senate, and the Mexican Senate in November 1993. The Canadian government's approval followed shortly after in December 1993. This agreement’s main goal called for a complete removal of trade barriers within 15 years. However, within the first seven years of its implementation, many trade barriers had already been dissolved. The objectives of this Agreement, as elaborated more specifically through its principles and rules, included national treatment, mostfavorednation status, and transparency were to: (a) eliminate barriers to trade , and facilitate the cross border movement of goods and services between the territories of the Parties; (b) promote conditions of fair competition in the free trade area; (c) increase substantially of investment opportunities in their territories; (d) provide adequate and effective protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights in each party's territory; (e) create effective procedures for the implementation and application of this Agreement, and for its joint administration and the resolution of disputes; and (f) establish a framework for further trilateral, regional and multilateral cooperation to expand and enhance the benefits of this Agreement. PURPOSE OF STUDY The main purpose of this study was to determine the impact of the agreement on member nations by examining changes in economic activity within the Region for the period 1994 to 2008. The study attempted to determine if the main goal of the agreement, which called for a complete removal of trade barriers within 15 years, and first two objectives which were; i) eliminate tariffs and facilitate the cross border movement of goods and services between the territories of the Parties, and ii) promote conditions of fair competition in the free trade area were achieved. The second purpose of the study was to examine the agreement’s third objective, which is, to increase substantially, investment opportunities in their territories through increased economic growth. 137 Do Excessive IPO’s and ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Drive or Hinder New Innovation? DO EXCESSIVE IPO’S AND ‘IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE’ DRIVE OR HINDER NEW INNOVATION? Laura Blake Mitchell College and Pace University, USA ABSTRACT The existence of stock market bubbles has been discussed extensively in the literature, particularly of late given our recent real estate market bubble and the accompanying collapse of the mortgage and banking sector. Stock market bubbles have given rise to behavioral finance theory, particularly with the study of cognitive biases (Shiller, 2000) that may drive the mindset of investors to groupthink and even herd behavior. Other theoretical explanations of stock market bubbles have included rational theory (DeLong, Shleifer, Summers & Waldmann 1990), intrinsic theory (Froot, and Obstfeld 1991) and mimetic contagion (Topol 1991). This research proposal seeks to further explore the issue of the irrational exuberant mindset or “a heightened state of speculative fervor,” (Shiller, 2005) with regard to intangible capital growth and innovation investment. The period of the 1920’s saw significant advances in technological innovations before the stock market Crash of 1929. Following the crash, the period of the 1930’s decade experienced economic growth based on the foundation of intangible capital developed the decade before, producing such technologies as radio, automobiles and aviation. (Nicholas, 2005) With an emphasis on technology stocks, I examine whether the multitude of IPOs and irrational exuberant dynamic of the 1990s decade actually drove new innovation. In other words, within a free and open IPO market, does ease of funding actually lead to greater odds that real innovation progress will occur? Or does irrational exuberance hinder innovation progress as unrealistic ideas get the lion’s share of attention and funding. INTRODUCTION The existence of stock market bubbles has been discussed extensively in the literature, particularly of late given our recent real estate market bubble and the accompanying collapse of the mortgage and banking sector. Stock market bubbles have given rise to behavioral finance theory, particularly with the study of cognitive biases (Shiller, 2000) that may drive the mindset of investors to groupthink and even herd behavior. Other theoretical explanations of stock market bubbles have included rational theory (DeLong, Shleifer, Summers & Waldmann 1990), intrinsic theory (Froot, and Obstfeld 1991) and mimetic contagion (Topol 1991). This research proposal seeks to further explore the issue of the irrational exuberant mindset or “a heightened state of speculative fervor,” (Shiller, 2005) with regard to intangible capital growth and innovation investment. The period of the 1920’s saw significant advances in technological innovations before the stock market Crash of 1929. Following the crash, the period of the 1930’s decade experienced economic growth based on foundation of intangible capital developed the decade before, producing such technologies as radio, automobiles and aviation. (Nicholas, 2005) With an emphasis on technology stocks, I examine whether the multitude of IPOs and irrational exuberant dynamic of the 1990s decade actually drove new innovation. In other words, within a free and open IPO market, does ease of funding actually lead to greater odds that real innovation progress will occur? Or does irrational exuberance hinder innovation progress as unrealistic ideas get the lion’s share of attention and funding. PAPER STRUCTURE The paper is structured as follows: first, in the introduction and literature review section, I’ve outlined some background and history of the topic and briefly described the streams of research concerning the issues related to stock market bubbles. Next, in the hypothesis section, I’ve addressed the specific aspect of intangible capital (patents) to generate specific hypotheses. Within the methodology section, I suggest the methods used to pursue and explore the hypotheses identified by briefly describing the variables and controls included to examine the relationship between investor exuberance and patent performance. In the final discussion, Results/Conclusions, I’ve presented the outcomes of my data analysis along with 138 L. Blake Volume 7 – Fall 2009 suggestions for further inquiry as to whether the accumulation of intangible capital will influence business survival rates after the bubble has burst. LITERATURE REVIEW Nasdaq, IPO Mania and the Tech Stock Bubble “The technology stock bubble has been characterized as a period of investor exuberance in technology stocks from the years 1995 through 2000. On January 3, 1995 the NASDAQ stock index stood at 743.6. The index rose dramatically and stood at 2406 on March 10, 1999. In the next twelve months the index more than doubled as it peaked in March of 2000 to over 5100.” Following this peak, the index continued to decline. By October of 2002 it closed at a low of 1163, losing five trillion dollars of market value. (Bear, McSherry & Preys, 2009) Of that period, Shiller argued that “the present stock market displays the classic features of a speculative bubble; a situation in which temporary high prices are sustained largely by investors’ enthusiasm rather than by consistent estimation of real value.” (Shiller 2000) Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman, referred to this phenomenon as “Irrational Exuberance” in a speech given in 1996, just days after Shiller had met with him. Some have argued that the Nasdaq bubble was caused by the rise of the Internet and its associated financial market activity, (van de Ven, 2003) since coinciding with this dramatic growth was the rising number and volume of Internet IPO’s at the time. Internet entrepreneurs introduced ecommerce concepts ranging from the successful Amazon.com to the not so fortunate Pet.com which early on, was exiled to the dotcom graveyard. Compare to 1920’s Technology Bubble Erratic market swings are not new. Within our history, one of the more significant bubbles experienced by the U.S.; the American stock market bubble of the 1920’s resulted in the famous Crash of 1929. The 1920’s was the genesis of tremendous new technological innovations including radio, automobiles, aviation and the deployment of electrical power grids, driving the economic growth at the time. (Nicholas, 2005) However, studies by DeLong and Shleifer (1991) and Rappoport and White (1994) “estimate that the 1929 stock market was overvalued by around 30 percent.” (Nicholas, 2005) Others contend that the market was “undervalued due to the large proportion of intangible capital held by firms” in the range of about 60 percent. (Nicholas, 2005) Innovation came about from the basic research that only the larger firms with ample resources were able to conduct. “The interaction between science, R&D and demand created unprecedented growth in productivity and living standards” (Nicholas, 2005: 4) Essentially, the 1920s became an important time characterized by “technological progress and intangible capital growth.” (Nicholas, 2005: 12) Would the 1990’s tech bubble prove to be equally significant? Rational versus Irrational Phenomenon The role of media has been examined in its culpability on the formation of bubbles. “The bull run in the roaring 1920s occurred when the radio ownership became widespread, whereas the rise in equity prices in the 1960s coincided with the arrival of the television in middleclass circles.” (van de Ven, 2003: 9) Similarly, speculative activity also surrounded the 1990’s period as Internet and ecommerce technologies came to the fore. Some investors dismissed concerns about overpriced asset valuations amid the claims of a “New Economy” referring to the notion that “traditional measures of value were no longer valid because technology was changing the world so quickly and dramatically.” (PC Magazine) Emotional and cognitive biases often drive the irrational bubble phenomenon.(Shiller, 2005) Rising share prices attract the attention of investors. Typically in financial markets a selfadjustment or negative feedback system kicks in: as prices increase, sellers take a profit. Some buyers are discouraged to purchase at such high prices; so equilibrium and self adjustment prevail. However, in the instance of bubbles, instead of a negative feedback loop, we see positive feedback, whereby buyers continue to purchase in anticipation of an ever rising stock price. Investors participate in this bubble phenomenon as they rationalize that the risks of not doing so outweigh the benefits. (Blodget, 2008) Productivity and Progress in the Tech Sector – 1920’s and 1990’s Bubbles Stock market bubbles generate a bevy of Initial Public Offerings, often within a “hot sector” (technology in the 1990s), creating a speculative fervor. The question becomes, do these hot markets lead to a misdirection of funding based on a speculative trend rather than to firms that are capable of generating long standing economic value? 139 Do Excessive IPO’s and ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Drive or Hinder New Innovation? Nicholas (2005) provides evidence that most of the “productivity advances which made the 1930s the most technologically progressive decade of the twentieth century may have depended on the stock of inventions accumulated in the 1920s,” claiming firms that invested heavily in R&D contributed “disproportionately to productivity growth a decade later.” (Nicholas, 2005: 15) RCA, Dupont, Westinghouse, General Electric and Kodak all contributed to the new “frontier of technological knowledge,” filing thousands of patents between 1920 and 1929. (David, 1990) Likewise, the 1990’s dotcom bubble was characterized by significant growth in technology stocks. But were the intangible assets equally important? This was an unusual climate unlike any other in our history; dotcom failures such as Pet.com, Webvan and Kozmo received capital funding in the millions (see Table 1; Appendix) with few if any concrete business plans. HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT Is irrational exuberance good or bad for innovation? “Stock market bubbles frequently produce hot markets in Initial Public Offerings, since investment bankers and their clients see opportunities to float new stock issues at inflated prices. These hot IPO markets misallocate investment funds to areas dictated by speculative trends, rather than to enterprises generating long standing economic value.” (Wiki) Looking at patenting frequency, hypotheses are developed to examine whether a relationship exists between irrational exuberant investing behavior on the level of intensity of intangible capital during the tech stock market during the period of 1990 to 2002. With a free and open IPO market, does the ease of funding lead to greater odds that real progress will occur? H0: There is no relationship between irrational exuberance and innovation progress. H1: Irrational exuberance, with its bubblepsychology of abundant money flows, helps drive innovation progress. H2: Irrational exuberance hinders innovation progress; as unrealistic ideas get attention and funding. DATA AND METHOD Descriptive statistics and bivariate correlation analysis are used to examine the key variables of intangible capital (operationalized as number of utility patents granted per year) and compared against the number of Initial Public Offerings announced during the period for which data were available 19902002. Ideally I was anticipating collecting data from 1995 – 2005 allowing for the five years preceding and following the burst of the 2000 bubble; however obtaining IPO data for that period proved arduous. Data was obtained from the USPTO (Number of Patents Granted by Year of Patent Grant) and IPO data from University of Florida database; Professor Jay Ritter’ website. FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS & LIMITATIONS The results reflect an unclear relationship between the two variables rejecting H1. The r = .04 indicates a slight degree of negative correlation; a reflection of the continued slight rise of patents against the drop of IPOs by the late 1990s. Further testing the strength of the relationship between IPOs and patents, I’ve squared the correlation coefficient and multiplied by 100 to obtain the resulting statistic known as variance explained (or R2). R2 = 16% of the variance in Y is "explained" or predicted by the X variable; not significant. R = .04 a slight negative correlation does not significantly support the hypotheses. The scatter plot below depicts the lack of correlation between the two variables. 140 L. Blake Volume 7 – Fall 2009 Exhibit 1 Scatter Plot 200000 150000 100000 Patents Patents 50000 0 0 200 400 600 800 IPOs year Patents IPOs 1990 90365 104 1991 96511 273 1992 97444 385 1993 98342 483 1994 101676 387 1995 101419 432 1996 109645 621 1997 111984 432 1998 147517 267 1999 153485 457 2000 157494 346 2001 166035 76 2002 167331 69 Column 1 Column 2 Column 1 1 Column 2 0.4006 1 Rejecting H2, irrational exuberance and heavy IPO activity appear not to have hindered the progress of intangible capital. However, further analysis hints that perhaps this exuberant behavior influenced the number of patents filed. When examining year to year percent changes of the two variables (Exhibit 2) we see that year to year percentage of changes in IPO’s dropped as the bubble effect took hold, however patents did not follow the same trend. Exhibit 2 19902002 Annual % changes 200 150 100 Patent 50 IPO 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -50 -100 Patents continued to hold steady with slight or moderate year to year fluctuations but did not decline along with IPOs. Of particular note, is a spike in patents in 1998 followed by a spike in IPO’s in 1999; perhaps reflecting a delayed response effect 141 Do Excessive IPO’s and ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Drive or Hinder New Innovation? – similar to that in marketing where current marketing expenditure influence future sales revenue of the irrational exuberance mindset, whereby innovators and inventors may have believed that an opportunity existed even though the economic decline of the market was beginning. As such, further study in this area of behavioral finance could prove fruitful by examining a fourth and fifth hypothesis; Is there a delayed effect of irrational exuberance on innovation after the bubble has burst? And also to Nicholas’ (2005 ) point regarding the growth of the 1930’s and the sustainability of companies who held high patent rates, does the accumulation of intangible capital (patents) influence business survival rates after a bubble bursts? This could be ascertained by future research, collecting additional data (if available) adding the important variable of venture capital funding amounts; measured against business successes and failures over the period and into the following decade, beyond the scope of this paper. REFERENCES Bear, McSherry & Preys, (2009) Investing in the Newest of New. Discussion Paper, March 28, 2009. Blodget, Henry, (2008) Why Wall Street Always Blows it The Atlantic, December 2008 http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812/blodgetwallstreet Carr, David S. (2001) The Technology Stock Bubble – Review and Outlook. Working Paper April 25, 2001 David, Paul 1990. The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on Modern Productivity Paradox. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 89 (2): 355361. DeLong, B & Shleifer, A. 2004 The Stock Market Bubble of 1929: Evidence from ClosedEnd Funds. Journal of Economic History 52(3): 675700. Froot, K. and Obstfeld, M. (1991) “Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices. American Economic Review 81 (5): 1189 1214/ Nicholas, Tom (2005) Do Intangibles Cause Stock Market Bubbles? Evidence from the Great Crash. London School of Economics, March 4, 2005 Rappoport, P. and White, E. (1994). “Was the Crash of 1929 Expected?” American Economic Review: 84 (1): 271281. Shiller, Robert (2002) The Irrationality of Markets. The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 2002, Vol. 3. No. 2 8793. Shiller, Robert J. (2000) Irrational Exuberance. Princeton University Press, Princeton 2000 Topol, Richard (1991) Bubbles and Volatility of Stock Prices: Effect of Mimetic Contagion. The Economic Journal 101 (407) Van de Ven, Johannes (2003) Wall Street – Driven by Optimal Rationality or Irrational Exuberance? SCG Occasional Paper #11 – Louvain – March 2—3 pp. 136. http://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia_term/0,2542,t=New+Economy&i=47933,00.asp Ritter, Jay IPO Data University of Florida http://bear.cba.ufl.edu/ritter/ipodata.htm 142 L. Blake Volume 7 – Fall 2009 APPENDIX Annual percentage changes. Patent IPO 1991 6.8 162 1992 0 41 1993 1 25 1994 3.3 19 1995 0 11 1996 8 43 1997 2 30 1998 32 38 1999 4 71 2000 3 24 2001 5 78 2002 0 9 Name Years of Type of Business Amount of Money Lost Operation (in U.S. dollars) Webvan 19992001 Home grocery delivery 1.2 billion Pets.com 19982000 Pet Supplies 82.5 million Kozmo.com 19982001 Fast home delivery for items such as snacks and DVD’s 280 million Flooz.com 19982001 Online currency (alternative to credit cards) 35 million Boo.com 19982000 Online fashion store 160 million MPV.com 19992000 Sporting goods endorsed by sporting celebrities 85 million Go.com 19982001 A portal to Disney company sites 790 million Kibu.com 19992000 Social networking site for teenage girls 22 million GovWorks.com 19992000 Portal for working with Municipal Governments 15 million Source: Harrington, 2008 143 The Performance of Pipeline System in the Supply Chain of Water for Industry in Thailand THE PERFORMANCE OF PIPELINE SYSTEM IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN OF WATER FOR INDUSTRY IN THAILAND J. Wachirathamrojn and S. Adsavakulchai University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Thailand ABSTRACT Water resources development and management are striving to be the pioneer in focus on diversifying water related business for complete integration, encompassing water management technologies, pipeline system and distribution operating. Water for industry in Thailand is principally engaged in the businesses of development and management of the major water distribution pipeline systems in the eastern seaboard area and procurement of raw water from government agency sources for commercial distribution to end users. This vision is realized through an emphasis on infrastructure development and utilizing modern technologies to ensure customer satisfaction. The goal is to serve area with strong potential across the services areas. Water from natural resources is the upstream supply chain of water for industry services involves the pumping and distribution of raw water from the main storage reservoirs through the major water pipelines network. The main objective in this study is to analyze the applicability performance to the water distribution pipelines and an annual distribution capacity. As a result, this research aims to propose the performance modeling of pipeline management of raw water distribution system which serve industrial clients in the eastern seaboard as a role stochastic frontier model of a business with operation conscious at high level. Keywords: Pipeline System, Water for Industry, Thailand. 144 T. Wiwatthanathorn and M. Baramichai Volume 7 – Fall 2009 RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR AGROFOOD SUPPLY CHAIN: A CASE STUDY OF AGROFOOD SUPPLY CHAIN IN THAILAND T. Wiwatthanathorn and M. Baramichai University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Thailand ABSTRACT AgroFood sector is one of the industries that have the greatest risk exposure. Agrofood’s risk factors are composed of both controllable and uncontrollable factors such as market demand, regulation, weather condition, pests, disease, global climate, and volatile market prices. However, due to the effect of globalization on business, there is a major evolution on the risk management of the AgroFood industry. Tradition perception on risks that is restricted only on the problems caused by climatic and natural phenomena has become insufficient. Nowadays, the growing importance of risk factors affecting Agro Food industry business is accentuated directly and indirectly by local, regional, and global economic, marketing efforts, agricultural policies, and technology advancement. It is critical for risk management practice to consider every circumstance along the entire supply chain as possible risk factors since one circumstance could create a chain reaction impacts on the others. Having the integrated perception on risks within the AgroFood supply chain will stimulate all relevant parties including farmers, mediators, distributors, processors, transportation providers and exporters in the chain to put their collaborative efforts on risk management activities. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the development of risk identification framework for Thailand AgroFood supply chain. Thailand is one of the countries that agriculture is considered as strategically important economic sector. To develop the framework, we conducted some literature researches on the generic risk management framework and then apply it to the argicutural practices in Thailand. In addition, to ensure the coverage of all global issues, we also gathered the information directly from the major AgroFood world exporters in Thailand in order to develop more understanding toward their actual risks. In our risk identification framework, all relevant risks are classified according to their basic sources into six groups, production risks, marketing risks, financial risks, legal risks human resource management risks and natural risks. Each of these risks is then related back to the relevant parties in the AgroFood supply chain based on whether they are risk objects or risk factors. In addition, together with the risk identification framework, we also developed the simulationbased model framework to be used as a basis for evaluating the risk impact magnitudes. Our risk identification framework attempts to provide the integrated approach for managing risks in AgroFood supply chain. The other industries with similar characteristics could possibly adapt our framework and apply it to their risk management system Keywords: Agro – Food Supply Chain, Risk Management, Agriculture 145 Comparing Warehouse Management System between Retail and Wholesale Business in Thailand COMPARING WAREHOUSE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM BETWEEN RETAIL AND WHOLESALE BUSINESS IN THAILAND S. Adsavakulchai1 and K. Juthamanee2 University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce1 and Boontavorn Co. Ltd.2, Thailand ABSTRACT Warehouse Management System (WMS) is a system to control movement and storage of materials within a warehouse, the role of WMS is expanding to including light manufacturing, transportation management, order management, and complete accounting systems. Retail business using WMS facilitates coordinated movement of merchandise and information throughout the distribution process. In addition, some retail business in Thailand created a set of centralized processes to automate, manage and integrate replenishment and distribution and simplify the change management process. While wholesales business using WMS generally shipped in larger quantity which minimizes the lifting of single units of product. Currently one of the wholesale businesses in Thailand is to develop cashandcarry– selfservice wholesale store network upcountry from massmarketing to direct marketing. Ongoing research is to do a standardization of supply chain practices across the business and is responsible store systems, optimization and information technology solutions for a steep change in distribution center productivity and capability. Keywords: Warehouse Management System, WMS, Retail, Wholesale, Thailand 146 S. Kitti and S. Adsavakulchai Volume 7 – Fall 2009 WEB APPLICATION OF PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE FOR PRIVATE BUS IN BANGKOK S. Kitti and S. Adsavakulchai University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Thailand ABSTRACT Fleet maintenance management is geared towards fleet owners who operate a sizable fleet of vehicles and to whom the maintenance and management of these assets is of critical importance. Preventive maintenance (PM) leads to more efficient operations and therefore substantial costsavings and reduced pollution. A well designed PM program can extend the life of vehicles and equipment and reduce costly repairs. This program provides information necessary to track and schedule preventive maintenance that allows fleet owners to improve the productivity of vehicles, equipment, facilities, and personnel. Moreover, the capacity of the fleet owners is enhanced by developing with the understanding that "prevention is better than cure". Keywords : Web Application, Preventive Maintenance, Private Bus 147 Web Application of Preventive Maintenance for Private Bus in Bangkok AGRO – FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES A. Sutcharitrungsee and M. Baramichai University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Thailand ABSTRACT The efficient supply chain has been evaluated by many as a driving force for the future growth of agrofood industries in developing countries. The difficult of developing such as integrated value chain is transforming the quality demand at wholesale or retail stage into good production process at producer stage and to develop a supplychain management for a reliable tracing and tracking system. This paper used the SCOR model as a tool to identify, measure and evaluate agro food supplychain management. This framework focused on five decision areas of the supply chain: PLAN, SOURCE, MAKE, DELIVER, and RETURN for analysis, improve, and communicate within supply chain members. The results show the structure of agro – food supply chain management and the relationship and collaboration of the members in five decision area. There are describing the process and all activities of supply chain performance including the strategies of demand and supply balancing, supplier network management, production, quality control, and transportation network. In each area is a link in the supply chain that is critical in getting a product successfully along each area. The supply chain strategy is the most important for the competitive position of all supply chain members in developing countries. Keywords: Agro – Food Supply Chain, SCOR Model, Developing Countries 148 SECTION 2 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE & Establishing the Existence of Localized Structure using Variational Dynamics ESTABLISHING THE EXISTENCE OF LOCALIZED STRUCTURE USING VARIATIONAL DYNAMICS Thomas K. Vogel Stetson University, USA ABSTRACT In the mid 17th century Isaac Newton helped formalize the idea of mathematically describing the evolution of an observed process by summing the underlying forces involved with the process. About two centuries later, in the early 1830’s, a physicist by the name of William Hamilton offered a paradigmatic reformulation of Newtonian mechanics. Hamilton successfully demonstrated that the whole of physics could be described in such a way as to never use the concept of force. Hamilton was able to establish a relationship between certain quantities representing the energy of a physical process and the governing equations of motion established by “summing the forces”. Hamilton’s theory required a more sophisticated version of calculus than was developed by Newton and his contemporaries. This more sophisticated calculus came to be known as the calculus of variations. The mathematical rigor behind variational calculus was developed by Leonard Euler and JosephLouis Lagrange. By exploiting the duality between these two different (but equivalent) views of modeling physical phenomena it becomes possible to reverse engineer physical systems. This paper will examine a technique by which certain types of localized phenomena (known in mathematical physics as solitons) can be established in nonlinear dynamical systems by taking advantage of this dual formulation of a physical system. This paper will detail this approach to constructing solutions using two physical systems which are of current interest in research. The first model describes ion transport across a cell membrane which is of great significance to research in Biology, Microbiology, and Biochemistry. The second model which is reversed engineered using variational Principles is an evolutionary description of onedimensional wave propagation through what are known as microstructured solids. Microstructured solids represent a hot bed of research activity in such areas as reconstructive surgery, robotics, and are being considered as a possible replacement for hydraulic systems in high performance aircraft. Keywords: Solitons, Variational, Optimization, Nonlinear, Dynamics 1. INTRODUCTION The modern perspective on formulating the mathematical model for a physical system is based on two separate paradigmatic views. These differing paradigms, though, arrive at a completely equivalent result. The first perspective is commonly attributed to work done by Isaac Newton in the mid 17th century. This Newtonian approach argues that the evolution of the state of a process can be described entirely in terms of the forces involved with the process [3]. This approach can be thought of as a manifestation of an Aristotelian “cause and effect” view of the universe. The philosophical and mathematical framework for the second perspective on model construction is rooted in two publications [1,2] in the 1830’s by a physicist named William Hamilton. Within these papers, Hamilton proposes a theory of dynamics which describes the whole of classical (Newtonian) physics without the use of forces. Instead, the physical process under consideration evolves in such a way asto extremize the integral of the difference between the kinetic and potential energies.Philosophically this is in stark contrast to the development offered by the Newtonian approach. Instead of viewing the evolution of a process as the result of external influences, the Hamiltonian approach argues that physical processes have a calculable intent to evolve in a particular manner. Examples of variational problems in mathematics can be traced back several thousand years through history. One of the earliest examples of variational problems can be found in Virgil’s Aeneid [4]. According to Virgil, Dido, daughter of the king of the Phoenician citystate of Tyre, fled to the North African coast after her brother Pygmalion killed her husband Sychaeus. There she pleaded with the local ruler, King Jambus, for land. The King granted the woman as much land as could be enclosed with the hide of a bull. Legend says that she cut the hide into very thin and long strips and laid it out in a semicircle with the sea forming the remaining side. The land later became the city of Carthage (c. 814 BC) and the woman its ruler, Queen Dido. While legend and fact may not necessarily agree, this demonstrates that the idea of extremum principles have existed for millennia. About eight centuries later, Hero of Alexandria (c 1070) proved the first recorded scientific minimum principle. He was able to show that the trajectory of a reflected light ray is a minimum if the angles of incidence and reflection are equal. This idea was later formulated as a least time principle by Fermat in the early part of the seventeenth century. 150 T. K. Vogel Volume 7 – Fall 2009 The mathematical machinery necessary to investigate variational problems was found to require more than the elementary calculus developed by Newton [3] and Leibniz in the midseventeenth century. In 1696, Johann Bernoulli proposed the brachistochrone problem which can be summarized as 'If two points are connected by a wire whose shape is given by an unknown function y(x) in a vertical plane, what shape function minimizes the time of descent of a bead sliding without friction from the higher to the lower point.' [6]. This problem was addressed by several of Bernoulli's contemporaries, and what arose from these investigations was a new type of calculus. This calculus is known today as the calculus of variations and was developed into a full mathematical theory by Euler around 1744 [7]. The mathematics developed by Euler was extended by JosephLouis Lagrange (17361813). Lagrange discovered that Euler's equation for minimizing a functional integral (later to be named the EulerLagrange equation) could be expressed in a compact way by simply using integration by parts. It was Lagrange who introduced the integrand of the functional appropriate to mechanics, i.e., the difference between potential and kinetic energies. Euler had essentially only considered the kinetic energy which amounted to requiring additional conditions to get a correct picture of classical mechanics [8]. Since the solution(s) of a dynamical system is one which extremizes this quantity called the action, it follows from this principle that methods can be devised for finding approximate solutions. Consider taking an anstaz (trial function) which represents the actual (exact) solution. In general this ansatz will contain fewer degrees of freedom than the exact solution. Even with a reduction in the number of degrees of freedom, Hamilton's Principle will still lead to a solution which, in some sense, will be as close as possible to the correct solution. However, due to the reduction in the number of degrees of freedom, it cannot generally be expected that the function will achieve the actual extremum of the full problem. One can still expect to find an extremum, however, which should be ``near" the exact solution. This method has long been used in applications from geometry through quantum mechanics. In particular, it was in this period that the "RaleighRitz method" was developed independently by Raleigh and Ritz for finding eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of linear differential equations. This method is known in modern mathematical literature as the RaleighRitz method [9]. In fact this usage of variational methods continued into the first half of the 20th Century, and even up into the late 1980's. During this time, Quantum Mechanics and all of Modern Physics were born, and with these, there came a critical need to be able to obtain numerical values for comparing with experiments. Up until the 1950's, there were no electronic computers, and even in the latter half of the 20th century, such electronic devices were generally only available at large government labs or universities. There arose a need for methodologies which aided in obtaining some kind of approximate solutions without the high end personal computing power enjoyed today. As an answer to this need, there were major efforts to utilize variational methods for developing approximate solutions, as well as perturbation expansions of such, for various physical systems. In this time period, nonlinear problems were generally not studied as such, except to the degree that one could expand about some solvable linear problem, or some known analytical solution. Thus it is not surprising that all the work in this period mainly concentrated on linear eigenvalue problems and their perturbations, with variational methods playing leading roles. The need for this development of variational methods began to decline after the 1970's, with the increasing availability of calculators and computers. This marked the end of an era and the beginning of a new one. Within a decade, it would no longer be important to carefully and analytically expand solutions of equations of motion, in order to obtain a threetofour place accuracy in their numerical values, when with the touch of a few keys, the value desired would appear almost instantly and with an 8to14 place accuracy. Solitons are a certain types of mathematical solutions which occur in a vast number of nonlinear evolution equations. The first recorded physical observation of a soliton was made by John Scott Russell in 1834. John Russell was a civil engineer by trade, and among his many accomplishments was the development of a system of hull construction which revolutionized 19th century naval architecture. He was the first person to offer steam carriage service between Glasgow and Paisley around 1834. John Russell is also responsible for some of the first observations of the Doppler shift of the sound frequency of a passing train. One day in year 1834, John Russell was working on establishing a conversion factor between steam power and horse power. To this end, John had rigged an apparatus in which a couple of horses were tethered to a boat along the Union Canal outside of Edinburgh. As the horses rode along the union canal with the boat in tow, the apparatus binding the horses to the boat snapped. As the boat came to an abrupt halt, John observed a great swell of water which formed around the bow of the boat. Suddenly this “mound” of water which had been gathering around the boat sprang forward and began propagating down the Union Canal. What struck John Russell as odd about this occurrence was the absolute lack of dissipation or attenuation of the propagating water wave. He followed it for several kilometers before the wave finally exited the canal. The odd thing about this particular phenomenon is that solutions to the water wave equations (as they were formulated in the early part of the 19th century) did not allow for such behavior. John dubbed this water wave as a “wave of permanent form”. Much skepticism surrounded John’s claim, and he spent many of his remaining days trying to recreate this wave in an experimental water table in his garden. 151 Establishing the Existence of Localized Structure using Variational Dynamics It wasn’t until 1895 that two mathematicians, D.J. Korteweg and G. de Vries, successfully constructed a mathematical model which affirmed John Scott Russell’s observation sixty years earlier. The key to establishing such solutions is in the correct formulation of the governing model. Korteweg and de Vries derived (what is known today as) the KdV equation (1) which correctly describes the behavior of shallow water waves. The governing equation is a nonlinear evolution equation. Russell’s contemporaries’ disbelief was due to the fact that their models of the behavior of water wave dynamics were linear in nature. Due to the complexity of solving nonlinear evolution equations, research in the area of solitons stalled out until the 1960’s. This was, of course, due to the advent of the modern computer. ut uux uxxx 0 (1) In the mid 1960’s a mathematician by the name of Martin David Kruskal ran the first numerical simulation of interacting solitons in the KdV equation. This early work contributed much to our current understanding of these rather exotic types of mathematical constructs. What Kruskal was able to demonstrate not only advanced applied mathematics, but forced mathematicians and physicists to reconsider the very notion of what is meant by interacting waves. Kruskal found that when two solitons interact, they will exhibit destructive/constructive interference much like any wave phenomena which is observed in nature, though they do not linearly superimpose on one another. The difference is that upon interacting, the solitons will return to their original state. That is to say, once the interaction has taken place, the soliton reestablishes its original shape, velocity, and other governing physical characteristics. Understanding these types of mathematical constructs has lead to some of the more profound advancements in the last few decades. Most notable of these advances are fiber optic and wireless communication over a global network. This paper will introduce a novel way to establish such localized structure (i.e., solitons) without the difficulties encountered by techniques which require working with the equation from the Newtonian perspective. 2. THEORY Throughout the last several decades many techniques have been developed in establishing solutions to nonlinear differential equations. These techniques are characterized by their limited reach in solving large classes of problems. Many of these techniques deal with methodologies targeted at the differential equation itself (i.e., the system as it is developed in the Newtonian sense via considering the net forces acting on a system). Consider a nonlinear differential operator, , for which there exists some solution, u, such that equation (2) is satisfied. [u ] 0 (2) This operator represents the Newtonian formulation of the system under consideration. Depending on the structure of , solutions to equation (2) most likely cannot be found directly. In fact, it is difficult to make any generalization about (2) without imposing further structure on . Instead of restricting to a certain class of nonlinear differential operators, consider a paradigmatic reformulation of (2). Suppose this nonlinear operator is the "derivative" of some associated "energy" functional, L as given in equation (3). [u ] (L [u ]) (3) Equation (2) may now be written in terms of the energy functional as indicated in (3). This establishes a duality in which solutions to equation (2) may be equivalently recognized as the critical points of the functional, L . This is, in essence, the heart of Hamilton's Principle. This approach enabled William Hamilton to describe the whole of Newtonian mechanics without having to consider the evolution of a system in terms of external forces. In modern mathematics this "energy functional" has a name; it is referred to as the Lagrangian. (L [u ]) 0 (4) Suppose the Lagrangian, L, corresponding to the physical system of interest is known, and that this Lagrangian is a functional of the variable u(t). (The variable u(t) may be a scalar, vector or tensor quantity.) In the present work, we shall only consider a onedimensional scalar case, where the integration variable is t. The action, S[u], is defined by equation (5) where D is the domain of support of the function u. S L[]u dt (5) D Hamilton's Principle states that the evolution of a dynamical system between two specific states is an extremum of the action functional given by (5). More formally, Hamilton's Principle states that the solution to a given dynamical system, u(t), is 152 T. K. Vogel Volume 7 – Fall 2009 determined by (6) for any bounded variation u()t , provided that this variation vanishes at any and all end points of the L domain D. Note that this also defines the quantity , which is called the (first) variational derivative of L. u S[u (t )u (t )]S [u (t )] L lim [u (t )]u (t )dt 0 (6) 0 D u In terms of the nonlinear differential operator , this establishes a connection between the governing equation(s) of motion and the the first variational derivative of Lagrangian as seen in equation (7). L[] [] (7) u This paradigm shift offered by Hamilton allows for a rather novel approach to approximating solutions of evolution equations for which a Lagrnagian can be established. Suppose the physical characteristics (be it geometric or otherwise) of a particular type of solution to the equation of motion given by (2) are known. For instance, an ordinary soliton could be described in terms of a traveling "lump" having some associated amplitude and width. Of course depending on the governing system the solution could have other identifying characteristics such as position, velocity, chirp, phase, etc. An ansatz can then be constructed in terms of parameters representing those physical characteristics. Let u0 (;)t qi be the ansatz, where qi is some finite collection of parameters representing the aforementioned physical characteristics, on which u0 is dependent. Note that these parameters could also be dependent on any other independent variables, such as t. With the functional form of u0 fixed, we know vary the parameters qi . The variations of the qi ’s will give the set of equations determined by (8). S L[u ]dt 0 (8) 0 qi qi D Note that (8) presumes the structure of the qi ’s is constant. If the parameters are assumed to be dependent on time, the partial derivative would become a functional derivative. Once this is done, we have the q's determined in the sense that we have the equations (either algebraic or differential depending on the structure of the qi ’s) whose solution(s) determine a "bestfit" for the parameter values as per Hamilton's Principle. 3. EXAMPLE I: A MODEL FOR ION TRANSPORT ACROSS A CELL MEMBRANE 3.1 The Model A model used in ion transport across a cell membrane is given by the generalized transport equation determined by equation (9). As detailed in section 3 of [10], this equation is somewhat familiar to applied mathematicians. Equation (9) is simply a generalization of the Burger’s equation. The authors of the aforementioned paper reduce the partial differential equation to an ordinary differential equation using a standard Lorentzian transformation, then establish the existence of ordinary solitons by calculating the corresponding homoclinic orbits in phase space. This approach is not uncommon, and to the author’s credit, the approach was successful. It is just somewhat complicated. There is a much simpler way to establish soliton solutions of equation (9) using Hamilton’s Principle. vtt vvx vt vxx f ()v (9) The nonhomogeneity in the equation of motion has a polynomial structure, f ()()v Pn u , as is common with transport models. The coefficients higherorder temporal and spatial derivatives are realvalued; , R , as is the solution itself 22 v(,):(,)x t x00t R . For the choice of the polynomial determined by f ()()v v v z0 , where , z0 R , we obtain a modified form of this generalized Burgers equation given by equation (10). 22 vtt vvx vt vxx v(v z0 ) 0 (10) 153 Establishing the Existence of Localized Structure using Variational Dynamics In order to reduce the PDE to an ODE a procedure similar to that used in [10] is implemented. Traveling wave (TW) solutions of equation (10) are readily found through the use of the Lorentzian transformation x t . This leads to a reduction of the model given by (10) to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation determined by (11) where h 2 and the prime notation indicates the derivative with respect to . 22 hv'' ( v )v ' v (v z0 ) 0 (11) 1 z2 1 1 Under the scaling u v and 0 , equation (11) may be written as (12) where k and c . 2 z0 h h z0 u''kcu ' (k 1)u u3 0 (12) Equation (12) represents the model from the Newtonian perspective. It has terms which can be interpreted as force, acceleration, damping, nonlinear driving, etc. Instead of approaching the search for soliton solutions by way of this formulation of the model, let us instead consider an equivalent Hamiltonian formulation. 3.2 The Variational Approximation The search for localized structure begins with an analysis of the eigenvalues of the spectrum of the linearized equation. That is to say, we consider the possible values of the extrinsic parameter, k, and the wavespeed, c, for which localized solutions (ordinary solitons) may possibly exist. Any localized solution will have a vanishing amplitude for large . Hence it is necessary that the eigenmodes of the associated linear problem be exponential in nature. The linearization of (12) has eigenvalues corresponding to (13). 11 kc k 22c 4(k 1) (13) 22 This necessarily mandates that the wavespeed of the TW solution has a minimum propagation rate given by (14) as well as imposes the condition on the extrinsic parameter k>1. 4(k 1) c2 (14) k 2 Hamilton's principle [1,2] states that the evolution of a dynamical system described by the generalized coordinates q (q12 ,q ,...) between two specific states q11 q()t and q22 q()t is an extremum of the action functional given by (15). t2 S[q (t )] L (q ,q ,t )dt (15) t1 That is to say that the solution to a dynamical system with an associated action defined by (15) must satisfy (16). S 0 (16) q()t 2 u A The localized solutions to (12) will be approximated by the Gaussian trial function 0 ( ) exp2 . Hamilton's Principle will be employed to determine whether or not localized structure such as u0 () exists for a given value of the extrinsic parameter k and wavespeed c. The Lagrangian for which the governing equation of motion (12) arises from is determined by (17). 1 1 1 L (u ')2 (k 1)u 2 u 4 exp(kc ) (17) 2 2 4 154 T. K. Vogel Volume 7 – Fall 2009 The action is then calculated (over the entire real line) using (17) evaluated at the variational trial function, u0 () . The result 1 of the integration leads to the action determined by (18) where exp(k 2c 2 2 ) . 16 A2 S 4A2 2 2 (4 (4 4k c 2k 2 )) (18) 16 Hamilton's Principle (16) would be satisfied if the action were evaluated at the exact solution. While u0 () is by no means the exact solution, it is representative of solutions which likely do exist in the equation of motion (12). Thus, as our lowest S S order approximation to the VA, (12) will be imposed on (18). Requiring that 0 and 0 leads to the algebraic A constraint equations for A, , k, and c given by (19) and (20) respectively. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4A 2168(22 k c k ) c k (44 k c k ) 0 (19) 22222 22222 224 A (8 c k )2168(22 k c k ) c k (44k c k ) 0 (20) For a fixed value in the parameter space (k,c) satisfying (14), corresponding solutions to (19) and (20) given by (A, ) represent the corresponding (zeroth order) variational solution. Most often in nonlinear systems, solitons occur in infinite families. That is to say, for instance, geometric features (amplitude, width, etc.) of the localized solution are continuous functions of some feature of the model (such as a propagation rate). With this in mind, equations (19) and (20) were solved numerically by first choosing a value of the extrinsic parameter, k. The width may then be determined implicitly by equation (21) as a function of the propagation rate, c. 2(168(22 k c22222k ) c k (44 k c 224k )) 2 (8 c 222k )0 (21) In turn the amplitude of the variational solution may be established by equation (22) using the ordered par (k,c, i ) where i satisfies (21). (4 (4 4k c2k 2 ) 2 ) A2 (22) 22 2 Numerical plots of the variational solution space for fixed values of k are provided in figures 1 and 2. Note that from considerations of the linear spectrum, k must be larger than 1. It was difficult to obtain solutions to the transcendental algebraic system determined by (19) and (20) for values of k larger than about 8. Figure 1: Variational Solutions; Plots of Solutions to Equations (19) and (20) 3.3 A Refinement of the Variational Approximation The utility of the results in the previous section resides in finding data corresponding to the geometric characteristics (i.e., amplitude and core width) of the trial function which represents the soliton for a given value of the propagation rate and extrinsic parameter k. Since this obtained data approximates the information (,;,)A k c , it can still prove difficult to find the exact numerical solution. To this end, a technique will be employed to refine the results of the VA. It is possible to improve 155 Establishing the Existence of Localized Structure using Variational Dynamics upon the accuracy of the results in section 3.2 by examining the first order correction to the variational calculation contained therein. One of the earliest methods to estimate the validity of a variational approximation had been given in [15], where Dexais, Anderson and Lasik investigated how well a variational solution would preserve the next higher order invariant beyond the Hamiltonian. In 2007, the author of this paper along with David Kaup devised a simple variational perturbation scheme in which the first order correction to the variational approximation could be obtained. This procedure (as well as the analysis behind the technique) is outlined in [11]. Consider taking a perturbation expansion for the exact soliton solution, ue , as indicated by (23). In this expansion, represents a small ordering parameter. ue u01(;)()qi u (23) The term u0 in the above expansion is the variational solution obtained as per the results of section 3.2. If the perturbed soliton solution given by (23) is substituted into the action (15) and the result is expanded about u u0 , the result is the expansion given by (24). L 22 L S L[]u dt (u u )dt u ()(')'()t u t dtdt O 3 (24) 0 u 1 2 u t u t 1 1 D D 0 2D D ' ( ) ( ') 0 By varying the first order term (order ) in u1 , the result is simply the equation of motion evaluated at the variational trial function. While the trial function will not satisfy Hamilton’s Principle (25) exactly, it can almost be satisfied if u0 is close to an exact solution. L 0 (25) u 0 The nonzero residual from resulting from the “distance” between the exact solution and the variational trial function will then 2 L be balanced by the next higher order term ( ). This is accomplished by taking to be of order . This results in u 0 equation (26). L R[q ](t ) (26) u t () 0 If equation (26) is substituted into equation (24), the expansion no longer contains terms of order . Instead the next lowest 2 order is of and upon varying u1 , we obtain equation (27). This equation governs the first order correction to the variational approximation. 2 L u (t ')dt 'R [q ](t ) (27) u t u t 1 D ( ) ( ') 0 Thus for the results in section 3.2, the first order correction is the corresponding solution to equation (28) where the nonhomogeneous term R() is given in (29). u1''kcu 1 ' (k 1 3u 0 )u 1 R ( ) (28) 1322 R A 2Ack 2 2k A 3 ( )4 exp 2 4 2 2 1 exp 2 (29) While (28) cannot be solved analytically, it can be solved numerically. It is worth noting that equation (28) is linear. This is not coincidence; in fact, this procedure will necessarily produce a linear differential equation governing the first order correction to the variational approximation. This particular equation (28) was solved numerically for the correction in the variational amplitude by utilizing a linear shooting method. The boundary conditions on (28) are u1 0 as . Equation (28) will have two homogeneous solutions which will converge to a linear combination of the eigenfunctions exp( ) as 156 T. K. Vogel Volume 7 – Fall 2009 plus a particular solution. Observe that the eigenvalues are defined in (13). With the data obtained from the lowest order variational approximation in section 3.2 and the first order correction to the amplitude of the variational solution from section 3.3, it is now time to use the data to find the solutions numerically. 3.4 Results In order to find localized solutions in equation (12), it becomes necessary to know in advance the values of the extrinsic parameters as well as the initial data. This information can then be fed into any standard ODE integration routine. This information is precisely what has been obtained through the variational approximation. Using the data displayed in figure 1, values of k, c, A and the core width for prospective localized solutions can be obtained. For a particular value in (k,c) space (as determined by the variational approximation), equation (12) is numerically integrated with initial conditions u(0) A and u (0) 0 . The initial condition for the derivative at zero stems from the symmetry of the solitontype solutions. The peak of the soliton core will be taken in alignment with the origin (i.e., where the derivative vanishes). The data for the initial amplitude is also obtained from the analysis seen in figure 1, but is adjusted to account for the first order correction as presented in section 3.3. Figures 24 contain the results of this process for some selected solutions. Figure 2: u() for k=2, c=1, A=1.07973 Figure 3: u() for k=3, c=1, A=1.86985 Figure 4: u() for k=5, c=1, A=3.775 4. EXAMPLE II: ONEDIMENSIONAL LONGITUDINAL WAVE PROPAGATION IN MICROSTRUCTURED SOLIDS 4.1 The Model In recent years, interest in applied research pertaining to microstructured solids has become more prevalent. One such area of interest pertains to what are known as ShapeMemory Alloys (SMA). SMA's have potential application in such areas such as aeronautics, development of reconstructive surgical tools, and robotics [12]. Recent work [13,14] has lead to the realization of the existence of solitary wave solutions (localized structure) in such models. The work done in finding localized solutions was based entirely on numerical integration with periodic boundary conditions. This section examines the use of a variational approximation to find localized ordinary solitons. The accepted model for 1D longitudinal wave propagation through microstructured media [13,14] is based on a higher order KdVtype equation. The model (30) incorporates third and fifth order dispersion, as well as first and third order nonlinearities. The nonlinear potential, P[u] is given by (31). 157 Establishing the Existence of Localized Structure using Variational Dynamics ut [P (u )]x duxxx buxxxxx 0 (30) 1 P()u u24 u (31) 2 In the above cited paper [13], the authors numerically solve for solitary wave solutions in the logarithmic parameter range given by 0.8 log(b ) 2.4and 1.4 log(d ) 4.8 . It turns out that equation (30) can be scaled in such a way as to reduce the dimension of the extrinsic parameter space. This extra degree of freedom was left in the model when it was numerically integrated by Salupere et. al [13]. The transformation given by (32) will accomplish this very task. 1 v(x ,t ) u 2 d (32) 2 Under this transformation, the stationary state ODE (33) governing 1D longitudinal wave propagation reduces to a 1 dimensional parameter space. It also scales a coefficient of the nonlinearity. Note that in equation (33) the coefficient of the b fourth order dispersion is determined by . 2d 2 11 cv v v v24 v 0 (33) 24 4.2 The Variational Approximation Once again, the search for localized solutions begins with an analysis of the eigenvalues of the linearized spectrum. That is to say, we consider the possible values of the extrinsic parameter, , and the wavespeed, c, for which localized solutions (ordinary solitons) may possibly exist. Any localized solution will have a vanishing amplitude for large . Hence, for solitons to exist, all four eigenvalues must remain real. The linear problem has eigenvalues corresponding to (34). 1 1 4c 1 1 4 c (c ; ) , (c ; ) (34) 22 1 To keep all four eigenvalues real, it becomes necessary that the parameters obey the conditions 0 and 0 c . An 4 image of this region can be seen in figure 5. Figure 5: Permissible region for (the possible) existence of ordinary solitons The modality for the variational approximation employed here will be identical to that used in section 3. The Lagrangian from which equation (33) is established is determined by (35). The search for localized solutions will be facilitated by using a 2 guassian trial function u A as in the previous section. 0 ( ) exp2 158 T. K. Vogel Volume 7 – Fall 2009 1 1 1 1 L cu2 u 3 u 5 (u ') 2 (u '') 2 (35) 2 6 20 2 2 Integrating the Lagrangian density over all space yields the action (36) which forms the basis of the variational method. 2 3 5 2 3 2 S cA2 A 3 A 5 A 2 A 2 (36) 4 18 100 4 4 3 The algebraic contraints for which the variational solution exists can be determined by the associated EulerLagrange equations. This is accomplished by varying the action with respect to the core amplitude, A, and the core width, . This algebraic system is given below in equations (37) and (38). 302c4 103A 4 35A 3 4 302 2 902 0 (37) 225 2c4 50 3A 4 9 5A 3 4 225 2 2 2025 2 0 (38) The width of the core can be determined explicitly in terms of the amplitude and wavespeed (39). Numerical solution curves of these associated EulerLagrange equations are given in figures 6 and 7. Using as control parameter, the equations are solved in terms of amplitude, A, and wavespeed, c. The equations are cubic in the amplitude, hence there are 3 possible branches of solutions. As the numerics indicate, there are solutions along two of these branches for 0 1.1, and only a single branch of solution for 1.1. A bifurcation in the variational data occurs somewhere in a neighborhood of 1.1. 195 2 (195 2)23 4(255 2c 60 3A 12 5A )( 1935 2 ) 2 (39) 2(255 2c 60 3A 12 5A3 ) Figure 6: Variational solution curves beneath the bifurcation point 1.1 159 Establishing the Existence of Localized Structure using Variational Dynamics Figure 7: Variational solution curves beyond the bifurcation point 1.2 As outlined in section 3.3, a first order correction to variational data can be obtained. Substituting the expansion of the solution determined by (23) into the governing equation of motion (33) and following the same procedure as in the previous model, the first order correction to the amplitude u1 can be established as the solution to (40). //// // 3 u1u 1 u 1()()u 0 u 0 c R (40) In the above equation, u0 is the trial function evaluated at the variational solution data obtained for the lowest order approximation. The nonzero residual which drives the solution for u1 is given in equation (41). As complicated as this equation may seem, keep in mind that it is still a linear differential equation and can solved numerically with most commercially available mathematics software packages. 2 22 2 3 Ae 22 R( ) 4c 8 8 6 16 2 4 192 2 2 64 4 2A 8e A 3 8e (41) 4 8 4.3 Results Once again, the results obtained from the variational approximation offer values for the extrinsic parameters and the initial data necessary to integrate the stationary state ODE given by (33). Integrating this equation is a bit trickier than with the stationary state ODE considered in section 3. Since this model is a fourth order differential equation, additional information is needed with respect to the initial conditions. The first and third derivatives will vanish at 0 by virtue of the symmetry of the solution. The initial amplitude, u( 0) A , is taken to be the lowest order variational amplitude plus the first order correction for the appropriate values in (,) c space. This leaves open the question of the initial value of the curvature u ( 0) . As it turns out, the governing equation (33) has a constant of motion which will precisely supply this information. If equation (33) is multiplied by u and integrated then equation (42) is obtained. d 1 1 1 1 22 2 3 5 (42) cu u u u u u u 0 d 2 6 20 2 2 160 T. K. Vogel Volume 7 – Fall 2009 With the above observations regarding the third order derivative in mind, this constant of motion can be solved for u allowing for the determination of the curvature at 0. This equation for the curvature given in equation (43) depends explicitly on the variational data obtained in the previous section. 21 2 1 3 1 5 cA A A (43) 3 10 Figure 8 offers such a solution, overlaid with the variational trial function evaluated at these parameter values. As can be seen from this graph, the variational approach to establishing localized solutions does so with relatively high accuracy. The bulk of the “error” can be seen in the tails of the soliton. This is somewhat expected since the Gaussian trial function will have a different decay rate than the standard solitontype solution forms (such as a sech2 ( ) type structure). Exact vs. Variational solution for A=1.747, =-0.1, c=-1 2 .00 1 .50 Result of numerical integration 1 .00 (exact solution) U 0 .50 Variational Solution 0 .00 -0.50 -10 .0 -5.0 0 .0 5 .0 10.0 Figure 8: Plot of exact solution (solid curve) vs. variational solution (dashed curve) 5. CONCLUSIONS The results obtained in this paper demonstrate the robustness (and relative accuracy) of using Hamilton’s Principle to obtain localized structure in nonlinear evolution equations. Note that these techniques can be implemented for just about any type of solution to a nonlinear (or linear) partial or ordinary differential equation, if there exists some general understanding of the geometric characteristics of the desired solution (i.e., it is necessary to construct a reasonable anstaz). It has been shown [11] that the variational method can fail to give reasonably accurate results in situations such as tracking soliton vs. soliton interactions in a governing system. The approach outlined in this work has the advantage of being able to establish solutions with relative ease when compared to some of the more complicated approaches available (e.g., Inverse Scattering Techniques, calculating homoclinic orbits in phase space, etc.). In fact this methodology is accessible enough that advanced undergraduate students with a good deal of mathematical maturity can use it in their own research projects. The author of this paper has had a couple of undergraduate students pursue this type of research at Stetson University (where there is a robust year long undergraduate research program for seniors), and those students have had a good deal of success with those respective projects. REFERENCES [1] William R. Hamilton, On a General Method in Dynamics, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, part II for 1834, p. 247308. [2] William R. Hamilton, Second Essay on a General Method in Dynamics, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, part I for 1835, p. 95144. [3] Isaac Newton, Andrew Mott (translator), Principia, Prometheus Books, UK, 1995. [4] Virgil, Robert Fitzgerald (translator), Aeneid, (Vintage; Reissue Ed. 1996). [5] Gardner, C.S., Greene, J.M., Kruskal, M.D. & Miura, R.M., Method for solving the Kortewegde Vries equation, Phys. Rev. Lett. 19, 10951097 (1967). [6] Margie Hale, Essentials of Mathematics, Mathematical Association of America (2003) 161 Establishing the Existence of Localized Structure using Variational Dynamics [7] W.W. Rouse Ball, A Short Account of the History of Mathematics, (Martino Publishing, 2004). [8] http://wwwhistory.mcs.standrews.ac.uk/Mathematicians/Lagrange.html [9] George B. Arfken and Hans J. Weber, Mathematical Methods for Physicsts, Academic Press, 4th ed. 1995. [10] Vsevolad A. Vladimirov, Ekaterina V. Kutafina and Anna Pudelko, Constructing Soliton and Kink Solutions of PDE Models in Transport and Biology, Symmetry, Integrability and Geometry: methods and Applications, Vol. 2 (2006), Paper D61 15 pages [11] D.J. Kaup, T.K. Vogel, Quantitative measurement of variational approximations, Physics Letters A 362 (2007) 289297 [12] http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/~database/MEMS/sma_mems/sma.html [13] Olari Ilison, Andrus Salupereit, On the propagation of solitary waves in microstructured solids, ICTAM, 1521 August 2004 Warsaw, Poland [14] Maugin, G.A., Christov C., Nonlinear duality between elastic waves and quasiparticles in microstructured solid, Proc. Estonian Acad. Sci. Phys. Math , 46 :7884, 1997 [15] M. Dexais, D. Anderson, M. Lasik, Phys. Rev. A 40 (1989) 2441 162 K. Phongkusolchit and T. Velasco Volume 7 – Fall 2009 DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR GEM IDENTIFICATION Kiattisak Phongkusolchit1 and Tomas Velasco2 The University of Tennessee at Martin1 and Southern Illinois University Carbondale2, USA ABSTRACT The objective of this research is to develop an expert system for gem identification. This expert system can identify 73 gems, classified as precious, semiprecious, and synthetic stones. The needed information could be collected from the naked eye, and traditional nondestructive instruments to identify a gemstone. Gemstones not included in the knowledge base, require higher technological measurements or very specialized instrumentation. Since this research is aiming for people with no background in gemology, the developed expert system provides fundamental information and leads the user through basic gem identification. This system questions the user about the stone to be identified, provides explanation facilities to better understand terminology, and uses a graphic interface to provide a clear vision of the identification process. After the user responds to the questions, the system processes the collected information and looks for a match in the knowledge base, identifying the possible gems, according to the given information. Keywords: Expert System, Expert System Development, Gem Identification, KnowledgeBased System, Computer Application. INTRODUCTION The concern of artificial intelligence (AI) is intelligent behavior in artifacts (Nilsson, 1998). Expert Systems are one of the most successful applications in AI. Application of expert systems helps us solve existing problems or make decisions (Lee, Liu, & Lu, 2002; Prasad, Ranjan, & Sinha, 2006; Zhang, Chu, Chen, Zha, & Ji, 2006). Expert Systems were developed for the collection of knowledge about human endeavors in any specialized field in response to the lack of availability of experts in that arena. These include, but not limited to, medicine, engineering, and business. Gemology is a specialized area related to both science and business; however, few people have knowledge about gemology. Gemology is the science of gemstones. Gems consist of natural, synthetic, and treated materials, along with simulant diamonds and imitation colored stones (Lu & Shigley, 2000). Stones considered as gems are composed of the following five qualities including beauty, durability, rarity, portability, and fashionability. Some people may not know that diamonds have a variety of colors besides colorless. There are green, pink, red and other colored diamonds in the business as well. Not only diamonds, but also other gemstones have this same characteristic. Therefore, it is confusing, sometimes even for an expert, to identify a stone (Nassau, 2000). For example, if there is a loose transparent blue stone, it is very difficult to tell what that stone is by appearance. It could be a tanzanite or iolite; however, it could be a more expensive stone such as a diamond or a sapphire. In general, people may not be familiar with either tanzanite or iolite, and it would be a costly mistake if a customer decided to purchase a piece of jewelry without having certain knowledge of its nature. Although the jewelry business produces small pieces as products, this type of business generates large revenues from all societies. Since jewelry as a business is very profitable, people have tried to take advantage of this factor, this is the reason why false gemstones in the market. False gemstones are either materials produced by humans to use instead of gemstones, or real gemstones intentionally used to imitate another gemstone. The problem is that people who do not have knowledge of gemology cannot tell the difference between real gemstones and false gemstones. Even though all the information regarding a particular stone is available, they may not know if the information given is true. The objective of this research is to develop an expert system for gem identification. This expert system is an alternative to gemological expertise, particularly in gem identification. The science of gems is delicate and sophisticated, and because of their similar appearance and characteristics, people have difficulty identifying them with the naked eye. In fact, false gemstones have been used in the business for years (Lu & Shigley, 2000). This study is significant because it helps people who do not have a background in gemology, identify gemstones. Moreover, some stones were invented particularly to trick technology, such as diamond detectors (Shigley, Koivula, York, & Flora, 2000). Consumers should also be aware of people 163 Development of an Expert System for Gem Identification who are trying to take advantage of their unwitting and uneducated customers (Jeffery, 2001). In summary, an expert system such as this would help people identify stones and raise awareness when purchasing gemstones. This research makes use of stones and their characteristics for building a knowledge base. Most types of stones used in this particular research are major stones in the business; however, some uncommon stones that can be found on the market are also included in this study. This research embraces not only real gemstones, but false gemstones as well; using the information that can be collected from the naked eye and traditional nondestructive instruments, as a way to identify a stone. Visual appearance and gemological properties can be almost the same for certain gemstones and their counterparts (Lu & Shigley, 2000). Therefore, this expert system is not able to identify a stone that is not in the knowledge base or cannot be characterized using traditional measurements. LITERATURE REVIEW Several methods can be used to identify gemstones. However, gems are different from minerals in terms of value. Geologists or mineralogists can use any methods to identify the questioned stone, including destructive or nondestructive sample methods. Unfortunately, gemologists can only use the latter methods because the sample might be very valuable (Lu & Shigley, 2000). In general, gem identification uses nondestructive sample methods, including the testing of optical and physical properties of a stone to determine its species and genuineness. Optical Properties Optical properties are the effects of a substance upon light (Tungsupanich, 1998). The properties that can help identify the stone include color, transparency, phenomena, refractive index, and optic character. Color Some stones may have a unique color while others may not. For example, rubies are red but garnets can be found in different colors. The color depends on the chemical composition of the stone and the structure of the atom. Each gem can absorb the light wave differently, letting us see the gems in a variety of colors. For example, a stone looks green because the stone absorbs all colors except green. Therefore, we can only see the reflected color. There are two groups of gems. One is idiochromatic gems, and the other is allochromatic gems. Idiochromatic gems are stones that have an element that is one of the components of the stone. The stone cannot be formed without a particular element such as garnet, malachite, and turquoise. Allochromatic gems are colorless stones unless they have impurities, which caused the color. This type of stone includes diamonds, rubies, and sapphires. Transparency This property shows how well a stone can transmit light. There are five levels of transparency for gems. 1. Transparent: A transparent material transmits light, and objects can be seen clearly even through considerable thickness. 2. Semitransparent: A semitransparent material transmits light, and objects can be seen through the stone, but not clearly. 3. Translucent: A translucent material transmits light, but objects cannot be resolved through it. 4. Semitranslucent: A semitranslucent material hardly transmits light. 5. Opaque: Light cannot pass through the material at all. Phenomena Special characteristics, called phenomena, can be found in some gems. These phenomena are created from inclusions, physical structures, and differential selective absorption of light in the stone. 1. Chatoyancy (cat’s eye) is formed by needle inclusions parallel to each other in only one plane. This phenomenon is commonly found in quartz and chrysoberyl. 2. Asterism (star) is created by needle inclusions like the chatoyancy phenomenon but intersecting more than one plane. Star rubies and star sapphires are typically found in market. 3. Aventurescence is the reflection of light from fine platelets in the stone. This phenomenon can be found in aventurine quartz. 164 K. Phongkusolchit and T. Velasco Volume 7 – Fall 2009 4. Color change results from absorption of different wavelengths of light. Due to this special characteristic, some stones can be seen in different colors under fluorescent light and incandescent light. For example, alexandrite chrysoberyl can be seen green under fluorescent light and red under incandescent light respectively. 5. Play of color is found only in opals. Due to the different sizes of silica crystal patterns in the stone, the interference and diffraction of light created colors in an opal. Different colors come from different sizes of silica crystals. 6. Labradorescence appears because of the interference of light in repeated twinning inclusion planes in the stone. This blue sheen can be found in labradolite feldspar. 7. Adularescence is formed by the reflected light from a feldspar platelet inclusion in the stone. This white or blue sheen can be found in orthoclase moonstone. 8. Iridescence is the spectrum color originated by the interference of light. This can be seen in fire agate. 9. Orient is a phenomenon found in pearls. The interference and diffraction of light from aragonite layers show the spectrum colors. Optic character The following terms describe the specific optic character of a stone. 1. Isotropic: Isotropic stones are singly refractive. They can be either in a noncrystalline (amorphous) or in a cubic crystal system (isometric). 2. Anisotropic: Anisotropic stones are doubly refractive. They can be in any crystal system besides isometric. 3. Uniaxial: Any gemstone that has one optic axis belonging to the tetragonal, hexagonal, or trigonal crystal systems. 4. Biaxial: Any gemstone that has two optic axes belonging to orthorhombic, monoclinic, or triclinic crystal systems. Refractive index Refractive index: The major key used to identify a stone is refractive index or R.I., the ratio between the velocity of light in the air and the velocity of light in the stone. R.I. is (Tungsupanich, 1998). The velocity of light in the air R.I. 1 (1) The velocity of light in the water Since the density of the air is always less than the density of any solid material, the velocity of light in the air is always faster than the velocity of light in the stone. Hence, R.I. is always greater than 1. For example, diamonds have a refractive index of 2.417. That means the speed of light in the air is equal to 2.417 times the speed of light traveling in the diamond. Physical Properties Physical properties include hardness, specific gravity, and magnetism. These properties can help identify the stone. However, physical properties are only a part of gem identification; therefore, whoever wants to identify a gem still needs other methods to confirm the final identification. Hardness In gemology, hardness is the resistance of a substance to being scratched. Gemologists use Mohs’ scale, which is a relative scale, as a standard hardness. The scale starts from 1 as the softest to 10 as the hardest. Gems lower than 7 in Mohs’ scale are quite soft. Nevertheless, some gems, like pearls, are really soft, but they are also fashionable and expensive. Hardness testing is not recommended for finished good stones because scratching is a destructive method. Thus, it is not a preferable method. The test, if needed, should be done at the position that has the least effect on the beauty of the gem. Specific gravity Specific gravity or S.G. is the ratio between the weight of a substance in the air and the weight of water that has the same volume of that substance. Each gemstone has its own specific gravity; however, some might share the same specific gravity. There are two ways to find the specific gravity as explained below. 1. Hydrostatic: A balance is used to find the weight of a substance in the air and under the water, with the result used to calculate the specific gravity. This method gives a more accurate specific gravity. 2. Heavy liquids: This method can only approximate the specific gravity by comparing the specimen in different specific gravity liquids. 165 Development of an Expert System for Gem Identification The most widely used method is hydrostatic. Due to the fact that gemstones have a wide range of specific gravities, this manner has no limitations (Tungsupanich, 1998). The formula below shows how to calculate specific gravity using the hydrostatic method. Weight in Air S.G. 2 (2) Weight in Air Weight in Water This method provides the best result for the calculation of specific gravity; nevertheless, there is a limitation for this particular method. The disadvantage is that it is not suitable to be used with a stone less than half a carat, due to the fact that this method is derived from calculation. Therefore, the less weight a stone has, the less accuracy can be achieved (Liddicoat, 1987). Magnetism This is a capability of either attracting a magnetic needle or being attracted by a magnet. This property is crucial in order to support the obtained information to identify a gem, especially diamonds. Because of metallic flux inclusions, synthetic diamonds react to the magnet (Goff, 1999). Although not all synthetic diamonds possess this property, no such reaction has been observed in natural diamonds (Gemological Institute of America, 1992). Expert Systems Computer programs that perform sophisticated tasks, which can typically be done only by human experts, are known as expert systems (Benfer et al., 1991). These systems can be used in specialized areas of knowledge, such as engineering, business, medicine, etc. becoming priceless resources for organizations. One reason why expert systems were developed is that the experts’ talents are valuable, and it would be unfortunate if such expertise become unavailable (Durkin, 1994). An expert system is composed of the structures demonstrated in Figure 1. Figure 1: A Typical Expert System Structure Human experts A person is considered an expert when he or she has specialized knowledge in a particular field. This type of knowledge, or domain knowledge, is stored in the longterm memory (LTM) of the expert. While giving advice, the expert obtains facts related to the problem and stores them in his or her shortterm memory (STM). Then, the expert reasons the problem by using facts and data from both LTM and STM. With this process, the expert can draw a conclusion and give a recommendation. Similarly, in an expert system, the knowledge base, working memory, and inference engine act as LTM, STM, and reasoning respectively, while the user plays a role as an advisee. The human expert and expert system’s problemsolving are demonstrated in Figures 2 and 3. 166 K. Phongkusolchit and T. Velasco Volume 7 – Fall 2009 Figure 2: Human Expert Problem Solving Figure 3: Expert System Problem Solving Knowledge base An organization that contains the knowledge needed in order to solve a particular problem is known as a knowledge base. This knowledge can be obtained from an expert, text, journal, or any other document related to the problem, and coded in the knowledge base using knowledge representation. One of the most widely used models for representing knowledge is rules (Wu, 1993). A rule is an IF/THEN structure. This structure relates information contained in the IF part to other information contained in the THEN part. Working memory Problem facts revealed during the session are stored in working memory (Durkin, 1994). The information for a current problem is entered into working memory, and new facts are inferred from matching the information in knowledge base. Then working memory is keyed in with these facts, and the matching process continues. Finally, a conclusion is derived and entered it into working memory. Inference engine The inference engine is the essential part of the expert system to match the facts in working memory with the knowledge in the knowledge base and draw conclusions for the problem (Ignizio, 1991). The inference engine derives the new information by working with facts in working memory and knowledge in the knowledge base. It looks for the rules that match their premises with the given information stored in working memory. After that, the rule’s conclusion is added to the working memory. Then, the search for new matches continues. Explanation facility In an expert system, this facility provides information to the user. The given information assures the user and makes the user more confident to answer the question. This information explains why or how the expert system draws the conclusion. 167 Development of an Expert System for Gem Identification User interface User interface allows the interaction between a user and expert system utilizing a natural language. Such interaction could be highly evolved and similar to humans’ conversation. The fundamental design requirement of the interface is to ask questions. To obtain reliable information from the user, an extra emphasis may need to be applied for the question’s design because the user sometimes requests the ability to explore or change information contained in the working memory. METHODOLOGY Determining System Specifications This expert system will provide information and lead the user through basic gem identification. In fact, it is general practice that gemologists should not draw a conclusion and give identification if they do not have enough evidence to identify a questioned stone. However, this research is primarily designed for people who have little to no knowledge of gemology; therefore, this system does not follow the restrictions of a gemologist or gem expert. In this study, the program is designed to ask fundamental questions about the stone being investigated. The system will process the collected answer and look for a match in the knowledge base. For people who are not gemologically educated, the system is useful in that it will give all possible gemstones matching the criteria, when the given information is not enough to exactly identify the gem. Knowledge Engineering The process of building an expert system, knowledge engineering, is very iterative. At first, the system is partially built, tested, and then modified. Figure 4 illustrates the development of this expert system. Figure 4: Expert System Development Knowledge Acquisition The information or knowledge elicited from the expert is used to provide both insight into the problem and the material for the design of the expert system. To gain the needed knowledge about the problem, the knowledge engineer works closely with the expert. However, the knowledge can be acquired not only from the expert, but also from any source of expertise in a particular problem. Technical literature is very helpful for knowledge acquisition. In the early stages of development, the researchers acquired and studied the general nature of gem identification from appropriate sources including manuals, texts, encyclopedias, and also from expert gemologists. The objective was to uncover 168 K. Phongkusolchit and T. Velasco Volume 7 – Fall 2009 the key concepts and general problemsolving methods used by gemologists. The following are the results of knowledge acquisition extracted from related resources. 1. The major key to identify gemstones is the refractive index. 2. Inclusions of the gemstones are the key to support and distinguish the identification of natural and synthetic gemstones. 3. The criteria for basic gem identification with minimal scientific instruments include color, transparency, phenomena, optical characteristics, refractive index, specific gravity, inclusions, and magnetism. Information Analysis And System Design When the knowledge is extracted, the knowledge engineer can analyze the information or knowledge and relay it into the most appropriate form in the expert system. This covers the knowledge in gemology, the expert system development tool, and system design. Information analysis The information or knowledge extracted from the experts and related sources provided the fundamentals for identifying gemstones within the specified scope. Selection of gemstones: Due to the fact that this particular research is designed for nonexpert users, most gemstones used for the development of this expert system for gem identification are wellknown gems. Furthermore, some gemstones found in the marketplace are included as well as synthetic gemstones. The 73 gemstones included in this research are categorized into the following three groups: precious stones, semiprecious stones, and synthetic stones. 1. Precious stones. There are only two species considered as precious stones; however, they are distinguished, valuable, and wellknown. One is diamond and the other is corundum. The researchers separated diamonds into two groups, diamonds and fancy diamonds. Generally, it is assumed that diamonds are always colorless, when in fact diamonds are found in many colors. Diamonds, in this research, will be colorless or near colorless diamonds; fancy diamonds will be other colored diamonds. Corundum includes all colored sapphires; however, only the red one is called a ruby. The rest are specified by color, such as yellow sapphire, green sapphire, and pink sapphire. If the term “sapphire” is used alone, it generally refers to blue sapphire. Nevertheless, in this study, rubies and blue sapphires are separated from others. This statement means that other types of corundum besides the ruby and blue sapphire are included as fancy sapphires. In addition, another type of gemstone considered a precious stone is the emerald. The emerald is the only variety of beryl to be included in the precious stone group because of its beauty, popularity, and rarity. 2. Semiprecious stones. Most of the gemstones in this research belong to the second group. Semiprecious gemstones are typically not as expensive; however, if they have a good size and quality, they could be just as valuable as precious stones depending on the rarity of the stone. In general, people are familiar with most stones in this category. Some examples are topaz, opal, pearl, and garnet. Nevertheless, other semiprecious gemstones can be uncommon such as morganite, kunzite, and iolite. 3. Synthetic stones. Due to the fact that there are many types of artificial gemstones in the marketplace, this study includes only synthetic gemstones widely used in the jewelry business. Some synthetic gemstones were created and are used instead of their own counterparts such as synthetic diamonds, synthetic emeralds, and synthetic rubies. On the other hand, some were invented to imitate other natural gemstones, such as synthetic cubic zirconia, synthetic rutile, and strontium titanate. Some are even more sophisticated because they were invented to trick the technology used to identify them; for example, regular diamond detectors cannot distinguish synthetic moissanites from real diamonds. Gemstones selected for the development of this expert system are listed in Table 1. 169 Development of an Expert System for Gem Identification Table 1: The list of gemstones included in “Expert System for Gem Identification” categorized into three groups. Precious Stones Blue sapphire, blue star sapphire, color change sapphire, diamond, emerald, fancy diamond, ruby, sapphire, star ruby, and star sapphire Semiprecious Alexandrite, almandite garnet, amethyst, ametrine, andalusite, andradite garnet, aquamarine, beryl, Stones calcareous coral, cat’s eye, chrome tourmaline, chrysoberyl, citrine, conchiolin coral, demantoid garnet, grossularite garnet, hawk’s eye, hematite, hessonite, iolite, jadeite jade, kuntzite, labradorite, lavender jade, malachite, moonstone, morganite, nephrite jade, opal, Paraiba tourmaline, particolor tourmaline, pearl, peridot, pyrope garnet, quartz, rhodolite garnet, rubellite, spessartite, garnet, spinel, spodumene, sunstone, tanzanite, tiger’s eye, topaz, tourmaline, tsavorite, turquoise, zircon, and zoisite Synthetic Stones Gadolinium gallium garnet, strontium titanate, synthetic blue sapphire, synthetic cubic zirconia, synthetic diamond, synthetic emerald, synthetic moissanite, synthetic ruby, synthetic rutile, synthetic sapphire, synthetic spinel, synthetic star ruby, synthetic star sapphire, and yttrium aluminium garnet Instruments for gem identification: Quite a few instruments have been developed to confirm the best identification; however, advanced instruments are very costly. By using standard or traditional gemtesting instruments and techniques, trained gemologists can identify most gems (Lu & Shigley, 2000). The following are instruments that were used in this research to collect information for gem identification. 1. 10x TripletType Loupe. One of the most portable and widely used instruments is the loupe (Matlins & Monanno, 1997). Many inclusions and blemishes cannot be seen with the naked eye but can be viewed with the loupe. In general, loupes have different magnifications, from 6x, 10x, 14x, 20x, to 24x. A 6x loupe can show a picture that is as large as 6 times the actual size. In general, gemologists use a 10x loupe, and it should be a triplettype for gem identification. The triplettype loupe is recommended because it has been made to correct two problems that other types of magnifiers have: both, the presence of traces of color (chromatic aberration) and visual distortion (spherical aberration) are usually found at the outer edges of the lens. Using higherpower magnification can be more difficult and result in major errors in identification. It is a common misconception that a higherpower lens would help them see inclusions in a stone better; however, that is not exactly true unless they know how the magnification works and how to focus properly. With a 10x loupe, there is a oneinch field. This means anything present in a stone at a distance of one inch from the end of the loupe will be in focus. Once something is seen, the loupe can be moved to focus on it more sharply. 2. Refractometer. This instrument is used to find an R.I. Generally, the higher the R.I., the more brilliant the stone. Since most stones have a unique R.I., they can be identified with this instrument. Nevertheless, it will not distinguish between natural gemstones and their synthetic counterparts (Matlins and Bonanno, 1997). The refractometer is used most easily with stones that have at least one flat, polished surface. On the other hand, a spot method can be used for cabochons, but it is more difficult. The major shortcoming of most refractometers is that they will not work with the very high R. I. stones, such as diamonds, certain diamond imitations, and certain varieties of garnet. 3. Polariscope. The polariscope is a desktop instrument used to detect optical properties of gems. It is used to easily and quickly determine whether a stone is singly or doubly refractive, and to determine the presence of strain in diamonds and other gems. It is also being used increasingly because of its value in distinguishing synthetic amethyst from genuine. It is the only affordable instrument currently available that can make this separation. 4. Binocular microscope. This is a desk or countertop instrument used primarily for magnification. This microscope must have both darkfield and brightfield illumination, and a light source at the top of the instrument to reflect light from the stone being examined. For newtype synthetics, a magnification capability of 60x is required. A magnification of 30x is enough for other gem identification. 5. Synthetic diamond detector. Synthetic gemquality diamonds are in the marketplace. Several sophisticated instruments have been developed to quickly separate synthetic from natural, but the machine is very costly and lacks portability, making it impractical in many cases. Fortunately, there are other useful and inexpensive tools although they are not 100% effective. A special rare earth magnet (neodymium boron iron magnet) has an extraordinarily strong magnetism. With this type of magnet, a synthetic detector can, at least, give a response indicating whether the stone is synthetic or not, due to the fact that most synthetic diamonds have magnetic properties. Since some synthetic diamonds do not possess magnetic properties, the final conclusion cannot be drawn without further appropriate testing. 170 K. Phongkusolchit and T. Velasco Volume 7 – Fall 2009 Data organization: Once the gems to be included in this expert system were selected, the next step was to organize the data extracted from the expert and related sources. From the knowledge elicitation, the criteria for basic gem identification are color, transparency, phenomena, optical characteristics, refractive index, specific gravity, inclusions, and magnetism. The information for each gemstone was organized by the mentioned criteria. Expert system development tools: This research used LEVEL5 OBJECT, one of the expert system shells available on the market. LEVEL5 OBJECT: LEVEL5 OBJECT is a complete expert system development tool that contains the instruments necessary to solve a wide range of problems. LEVEL5 OBJECT has, among other tools, a graphical user interface development editor, forms, and display builders. These instruments help control the overall aspects of the user interface (Information Builders, 1995). Microsoft Excel: Although LEVEL5 OBJECT has an objectoriented knowledge base integrated, a spreadsheet can build the knowledge base more easily. Due to the fact that the knowledge base for all gems is sizable, Microsoft Excel, a conventional spreadsheet, was a very useful tool for constructing the knowledge base in this expert system. System Design An expert system minimally consists of a knowledge base, an inference engine, and a user interface (Byrd, 1995). These principals directly influence the system and prospective users. For the best gem identification, it is critical that the designed system draw the most accurate data from the user, and the more information the user provides, the better the gem identification the user gets. Knowledge base: For extracting knowledge, human experts use conditions to solve problems; for this reason, knowledge base rules, a similar method, are utilized in this system. The following example explains how rules or the IF/THEN method works. RULE: IF Premise THEN Conclusion Rules were constructed using the matter of the problem in different procedures. There are more than 100 rules in this system. While the system is working, the given answers or facts from the user are placed in working memory. Then the inference engine combines the facts stored in working memory with the rules in knowledge base, and conclusions are drawn. Figure 5 demonstrates the rules methodology. Figure 5: Rules Method Inference Engine: Since the goal of this expert system is the conclusion or, in this case, the identification of a stone, the forwardchaining method is used. This method derives new facts using rules that promise to match known facts collected from the user. This process continues until a goal is reached, or until no more rules have premises matching the derived facts. Figure 6 illustrates the forwardchaining method. 171 Development of an Expert System for Gem Identification Figure 6: Forwardchaining Method User interface: The user interface window for this program is similar to a general application window. For this program, the user interface can be categorized into three groups: 1. Data input. Data input will be in the form of questions, and possible answers will be offered in three different formats: (1) radiobutton group, (2) checkbox group, and (3) promptbox. For the radiobutton group, the user can select only one answer from the group. On the other hand, more than one answer is possible for the checkbox group. A number can be placed in the promptbox to answer some questions. Figure 7 shows the three formats of inputs. Figure 7: Example of Inputs (a) Radiobutton, (b) Checkbox, and (c) Promptbox 2. Explanation facility. This module provides explanations about the questions or the answer to the user. Due to the fact that there are several technical terms in an expert system for gem identification, the explanation facility provides the meanings and pictures for those terminologies to ensure that the user understands and answers the questions correctly. Moreover, this expert system also includes how to obtain expert information, such as refractive index and optic character. This information is offered in a different window from the question’s window. The additional window demonstrates what types of instruments were used for gem identification. An explanation facility example is shown in the Use of the System section. 172 K. Phongkusolchit and T. Velasco Volume 7 – Fall 2009 3. Data output. The output window shows the best identification, or all possible gemstones derived from the information given by the user. This window also provides a picture for the best identification. In addition, some important information about the selected gemstone is offered to the user. The Use of the System section includes some examples of data output windows. System Development Since all required information and tools (i.e., the knowledge base, the inference engine, and the user interface) were developed in LEVEL5 OBJECT, additional development tools included Adobe Photoshop and Microsoft Excel. RESULTS Introduction Before the user begins the process of gem identification, the title window for gem identification is shown and asks whether the user wants to proceed or not. Figure 8 illustrates the title window for the expert system for gem identification. Figure 8: The Title Page Use Of The System The purpose of this expert system is to identify gemstones. Even if the user cannot give all of the required information for identification, the system will display all possible gemstones that possess the given characteristics. The following procedure will guide the user in the use of the expert system for gem identification by asking a series of questions. For example, the first question is “What color does the stone have?” as shown in Figure 9. The system asks the user about the color of the stone. Each window is integrated with information section to help the user answer the question in both text and graphic. In Figure 9, the box in the bottom left corner explains why the color is important in gem identification. The user can select one or more colors if needed. 173 Development of an Expert System for Gem Identification Figure 9: The Color Question Not all characteristics of a stone have more than one attribute. The system is designed to be mistakeproof; for example, transparency is the ability of a material to transmit light. Using the radio button, the user can only choose one answer as shown in Figure 10. Figure 10: The Transparency Question Some questions can be very technical. The Info button (shown in Figure 11) will bring the user to the window providing more information related to such question illustrated by Figure 12. However, if the user does not know the answer, the “Unknown” button illustrated in Figure 11 is available for each question. 174 K. Phongkusolchit and T. Velasco Volume 7 – Fall 2009 Figure 11: The Optic Character Question Figure 12: An Example of a “Return” Button The best identification of the stone is provided in the next window, once the users have gone through the whole series of questions. Examples of best identification are shown in Figure 13 and 14. At this point, the user must realize that the identification is based on the given information or facts. Hence, the user can change the given answers before the identification is presented by the system. If the user is not sure about the given information, the user can click the “Back” button to go to the desired window and change it. To proceed with the identification, the user must click the “Next” button. However, the user can quit or restart the program by clicking the “Exit” or “Restart” button at any time. These buttons are illustrated in several Figures throughout this system. 175 Development of an Expert System for Gem Identification CONCLUSION Due to the scarcity of gemologists and media in gemology, an expert system for gem identification can help people, who have little knowledge in gemology, identify a stone. This system not only helps the user identify the stone, but also provides gemological knowledge for those using the expert system. Figure 13: The Identification Display for “Hematite” Figure 14: The Identification Display for “Synthetic Diamond” This expert system for gem identification was developed in a computerbased format. This system includes information for gem identification from many sources in the field of gemology. The researchers collected all information available from experts, textbooks, journals, and other related sources so that this expert system could be used as a reference in this particular subject. This system contains a number of pictures related to the field that make the process more graphic and provide the user a greater understanding of the technical knowledge associated with this subject matter. In addition, the expert system for gem identification can be used as a training tool because the system explains how the instruments should be used and how the characteristics of gemstones are determined. 176 K. Phongkusolchit and T. Velasco Volume 7 – Fall 2009 An expert system can only provide as much knowledge as the knowledge engineer puts into the system. This expert system for gem identification does not have the ability to automatically learn or add knowledge into the system; therefore, the system needs to be maintained to keep it uptodate. REFERENCES Benfer, R., Brent, E., & and Furbee, L. (1991). Expert Systems. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Byrd, T. (1995). Expert systems implementation: Interviews with knowledge engineers. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 95(10), 37. Durkin, J. (1994). Expert systems: Design and development. New York: Maxwell Macmillan International. Gem identification: Occasional tests. (1992). Santa Monica, CA: Gemological Institute of America. Goff, R. (1999). Hard science. Forbes, 163(7), 7. Ignizio, J. (1991). Introduction to expert systems: The development and implementation of rulebased expert systems. New York: McGrawHill. LEVEL5 OBJECT reference guide. (1995). New York: Information Builders. Jeffery, A. (2001). A gem of an investment. Asian Business, 37(2), 57. Lee, W., Liu, C., & Lu, C. (2002). Intelligent agentbased systems for personalized recommendations in internet commerce. Expert Systems with Applications, 22(4), 275284. Liddicoat, R. (1987). Handbook of Gem Identification. Santa Monica, CA: Gemological Institute of America. Lu, T., & Shigley, J. (2000). Nondestructive testing for identifying natural, synthetic, treated, and imitation gem materials. Materials Evaluation, 58(10), 12041208. Matlins, A, & Bonanno, A. (1997). Gem Identification Made Easy: A Handson Guide to More Confident Buying and Selling. Vermont: GemStone Press. Nassau, K. (2000). Synthetic moissanite: A new manmade jewel. Current Science, 79(11), 15721577. Nilsson, N. (1998). Artificial intelligence: A new synthesis. San Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. Prasad, R., Ranjan, K., & Sinha, A. (2006). AMRAPALIKA: An expert system for the diagnosis of pests, diseases, and disorders in Indian mango. KnowledgeBased Systems, 19(1), 921. Shigley, J., Koivula, J., York, P., & Flora, D. (2000). A guide for the separation of colorless diamond, cubic zirconia, and synthetic moissanite. The Loupe, 9(3), 810. Tungsupanich, V. (1998). Colored Stones and Deposits, Bangkok: Thansettakij. Wu, X. (1993). LFA: A liner forwardchaining algorithm for AI production systems. Expert Systems, 10(4), 237242. Zhang, Y., Chu, C., Chen, Y., Zha, H., & Ji, X. (2006). Splice site prediction using support vector machines with Bayes Kernel. Expert Systems with Applications, 30(1), 7381. 177 GEM and the Leptonic Width of the J(3097) GEM AND THE LEPTONIC WIDTH OF THE J(3097) D. White Roosevelt University, USA ABSTRACT Because the J(3097) exists in the “asymptotically free” region of energy space, the leptonic partial widths of the J(3097) associated with e+e and + decays do not depend in any great measure upon the masses of the respective products. Hence, to a high degree of approximation, the abovementioned partial widths may be regarded as equal and calculable from the formula, Jee J ( / s) JH , where Jee represents the partial width of the J(3097) associated with electron / positron decay, J represents the partial width of the J(3097) associated with muon / antimuon decay, JH represents the hadronic width of the J(3097), represents the fine structure constant = (1 / 137.036), and s represents the strong coupling parameter. Now, GEM (the Gluon Emission Model) has been shown to have yielded highly accurate determinations of the hadronic widths of all vector mesons in their ground states, as well as of s over the entire range of energy where vector mesons occur. However, via GEM, Jee above is only 2.31 Kev, far less than the experimentally determined value of (5.40 0.22) Kev reported by the Particle Data Group. In the following work we suggest an ansatz which could plausibly explain the disparity between experiment and the simple application of GEM above regarding the leptonic partial widths of the J as follows: Since GEM predicts that the J decays via a fourmomentum transfer from a cc* state (where “c” represents the charm quark and the “*” signifies an antiquark) to an excited ss* state (where “s” represents a strange quark), followed by a spinflip of the ss* system upon hadron emission, due to the fact that the J is too light to have two charm quarks involved in its decay products, we postulate that most leptonic decays involve the ss* system spinflip, but not all. We calculate the fraction of leptonic decays stemming from the original cc* system to explain the experimental results and find it to be fairly small (1/9). By taking into account the consideration expressed immediately above, GEM is seen to yield the hadronic, the leptonic, and, thereby, the full width of the J(3097) essentially exactly. Keywords: J(3097); Gluon Emission Model; Leptonic Partial Width; Hadronic Partial Width INTRODUCTION It is wellknown that, at least as it pertains to lepton pair production, the J(3097), henceforth referred to as simply “the J” in the following work, exists in the “asymptotically free” region of energy space, in which the decay rates associated with the two physically possible types of purely leptonic decay products, i.e., electron/positron (signified by “e+e” or “ee” herein) or muon/antimuon (signified by “+ ” or “”) pairs, exhibit essentially no dependence on the masses of the emerging leptons. See for example page 78 of the 2004 Meson Table, published by the Particle Data Group (PDG) (PDG (2004)) on which is stated that the branching ratio for J e+e is (0.0593 0.0010) and that for J + is (0.0588 0.0010). Under such conditions, it is logical to assume that the partial leptonic decay width of the J associated with e+e decay, for example, may be theoretically expressed as Jee (/ s) JH (1) where represents the fine structure constant = (1/137.036), s represents the strong coupling parameter, and JH represents the purely hadronic width of the J. Of course, in order to actually calculate Jee on a purely theoretical basis, one needs a reliable theoretical structure that would allow for the determinations of both, JH and s. We believe such reliable theoretical structure does exist as the Gluon Emission Model (GEM), as evidenced in D. White, “The Gluon Emission Model for Hadron Production Revisited” (White (2008)). The key elements associated with the decay of the J meson illustrated in the abovementioned paper are (1) its basic cc* structure being too light to allow for decay products involving both the c and c* quarks necessitates a very rapid transfer of fourmomentum to an excited ss* system, so rapid that the form factor for so doing equals essentially one, as are all gluon couplings involved; from there (2) in accord with the basic precept of GEM, the ss* system experiences a spinflip (see, for example, Dalitz (1977)), so that the square of the matrix element vital to the J’s width calculation associated with the presently 178 D. White Volume 7 – Fall 2009 4 4 considered facet of the decay is proportional to qs , rather than to qc . An exactly analogous situation as above pertains to the (9460) (henceforth denoted as “”), so that for it, the basic bb* (where “b” represents the bottom quark) system transitions very rapidly to an excited cc* system, which then decays via spin flip, so that the square of the matrix element analogous to 4 the one above is proportional to qc . With such provisos GEM then yields highly accurate width determinations of all known vector mesons and, as well, accurate values of s over the entire range of energy from the to the . Our aim, then, is to employ GEM to determine Jee on a purely theoretical basis and “go from there”, as it were. We will see that a major discrepancy between the GEMcalculated result for Jee and that which is reported for same by the PDG in PDG (2004) is in evidence. However, we will also see that a very plausible assumption can be made, the implications of which can be seen to bring about agreement between theory and experiment. THE DETERMINATION OF Jee via GEM The Gluon Emission Model assumes that vector mesons arise by virtue of quark spinflip with accompanying gluon emission. Keeping in mind elements 1 and 2 above associated with the decay of the J, from Eq. 4 of White (2008) we can describe the hadronic width of the J via GEM as 3 4 1 JH(GEM) (1960 Mev)(M/MJ) (qs )[ln(MJ/50 Mev)] (2) where M = mass of the meson = 776 Mev, MJ = mass of the J meson = 3097 Mev, and qs = strange quark charge = (1/3). Hence, JH(GEM) 92.25 Kev (3) In addition Eq. 9 of White (2008) indicates that s at the J energy as determined by GEM is given by 1 s(JGEM) 1.2[ln(MJ/50 Mev)] (4) Hence, s(JGEM) 0.2908 (5) Therefore, in accord with Eq. 1, we find the partial width of the J associated with electron/positron decay as determined by GEM as Jee(GEM) (1/137.036)(1/0.2908)(92.25 Kev) (6) Hence, Jee(GEM) 2.31 Kev (7) Denoting Jee(PDG) as the published value of Jee in PDG (2004), we note Jee(PDG) = (5.40 0.22) Kev (8) a figure about two and a third times Jee(GEM) ! REFINEMENT OF THE Jee(GEM) CALCULATION Whereas all hadronic decays of the J must involve the transition to the excited ss* system as an intermediate state, due to the J being too light to be able to produce hadronic products involving c and c*, it is still energetically possible for the J’s original cc* system to decay directly to leptons, specifically e+e and + . Assuming that the fraction, β, of leptonic decays stem from the original cc* system, agreement with experiment via GEM can be obtained if we set the experimentally obtained electron / positron partial width, Jee(PDG) = 5.40 Kev, equal to the refined GEM calculation of same, denoted by Jee(GEM)refined, according to: Jee(GEM)refined = Jee(PDG) = 5.40 Kev = 2.31 Kev [16 β + (1 – β)] (9) 4 in which equation the factor “16” stems from using qc (qc = (2/3)) in Eq. 2 above (in conjunction with Eqs. 6 and 7) as 4 associated with the fraction, β, described above, whereas the remainder, (1 – β), goes with qs . Solving Eq. 9 for β yields: β = 0.089 (10) 179 GEM and the Leptonic Width of the J(3097) CONCLUDING REMARKS If the above ansatz is correct, i.e., β = 0.089, as descriptive of the fractional contribution to the leptonic decays of the J stemming from the J’s original cc* system, the full width of the J as per GEM would be given by: J(GEM)full = JH(GEM) + 2 Jee(GEM)refined = [92.25 + 2 (5.40)] Kev = 103.05 Kev (11) a figure in excellent agreement with the experiment of Armstrong, who obtained the width of the J as (99 ± 12) Kev (PDG (2004). However, given that β ≠ 0, indicating that some nonzero fraction of the original cc* states “stay behind” to subsequently decay via lepton pair emission, while the rest transition very quickly to the excited ss* systems, it would be reasonable to ascertain whether such circumstance has any influence on the purely hadronic width of the J. To that end we recast 3 4 1 JH(GEM) as: JH(GEM) = f (1960 Mev)(M/MJ) (qs )[ln(MJ/50 Mev)] (12) where f represents an adjustment to the aforementioned cc* to ss* transition form factor. In Eq. 2 we assumed f = 1. The extent that f differs from one is basically the extent that the small fraction of cc* states decaying directly to lepton pairs also mitigates the purely hadronic decay width of the J. To solve for f, we set the adjusted hadronic width of the J (Eq. 12) equal to the PDG’s determination of the experimentally determined hadronic width of the J of 80.20 Kev (PDG (2004)). To that end we have: f(92.25 Kev) = 80.20 Kev (13) Hence, f = 0.8694 (14) Such mitigation as seen above makes necessary the recalculation of β, as Eq. 9 above must now be rewritten as: f Jee(GEM)refined = Jee(PDG) = 5.40 Kev = 2.01 Kev [16 β + (1 – β)] (15) from which now β → 0.112 ≈ (1/9). Now, as f = 0.8694 ≈ (1 – β), a clear picture as to the structure of the J and its subsequent decay has emerged. Coincidentally or not, β can be expressed as 2 β ≈ qs = (1/9) (16) Nearly exact agreement with experiment as to the full width of the J can now be reached if we assume the cc* → ss* form 2 2 factor to be f = (1 qs ) = (8/9) due to qs = (1/9) of the original cc* states decaying directly into lepton pairs. With the above assumption we obtain the theoretical hadronic partial width of the J as 2 3 4 1 JH(GEM:Theoretical) = (1 qs ) (1960 Mev)(M/MJ) (qs )[ln(MJ/50 Mev)] = 82.00 Kev (17) with the theoretical leptonic partial width given by 2 2 2 Jl(GEM:Theoretical) = (1 qs ) (2.31Kev)[16 qs + (1 qs )](2) = 10.95 Kev (18) 2 (See Eq. 9 above; the factor of “2” in Eq. 18 enters in to include muon pairs, and the factor (1 qs ) obtains because, again, f = 2 (1 qs ).) Hence, the full width of the J according to the theoretical picture developed herein is expressed as J full(GEM:Theoretical) = 92.95 Kev, which is essentially a match to the PDG’s assessment for same, viz., (91.0 ± 3.2) Kev (PDG (2004)). We see, therefore, that, though obtained by means of an iterative process, the structural characteristics of the J as put forth by GEM are completely internally selfconsistent with the original root assumptions of such model. The form factor, f, for example, is reduced from the assumed value of one by one ninth only because one ninth of the assumed original cc* states do not take part in the same decay pattern as the other eightninths do. Rather, they “linger behind” to decay exclusively into lepton pairs, thus correctly giving rise to the anomalously large leptonic decay width of the J, compared to the prediction consistent with the seentobeerroneous assumption that 100% of the cc* states were to convert to ss* excited states as descriptive of the decay process of the J. REFERENCES PDG (2004), “Mesons”, accessed online Nov. 7, 2008, pdg.lbl.gov/2004/tables/mxxx.pdf. 180 D. White Volume 7 – Fall 2009 White, D. (2008), “The Gluon Emission Model for Hadron Production Revisited”, Journal of Interdisciplinary Mathematics, 11 (4), pp.543 – 551. White, D. (1985), “Calculation of the Strong Coupling Constant, αs, from Considerations of Virtual Synchrotron Radiation Resulting in Hadron Pair Emission”, International Journal of Theoretical Physics, 24 (2), pp. 201 216. Dalitz, R. H., “Glossary for New Particles and New Quantum Numbers”, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Vol. 355 (1683) (1977), p.601. 181 Force-Modeling Theory: Melodic Motion and the Real-World Attributes of Tones FORCEMODELING THEORY: MELODIC MOTION AND THE REALWORLD ATTRIBUTES OF TONES Michael D. Jones Kirkwood Community College, USA ABSTRACT Metaphorical descriptions of music utilizing concepts and terminology borrowed from the physical domain, such as space and motion, have existed since the earliest writings on music theory. These metaphorical descriptions of music, however, have been vague by comparison to descriptions of the actual physical phenomena in terms of which they are made. The more precise metaphorical descriptions of music developed in this paper can provide valuable analytical tools to the theorist that may reveal new and interesting aspects of melodic motion. The theory developed in this paper, which I call forcemodeling theory, utilizes methods of analysis proper to the description of physical objects and their motions to describe musical objects and their motions. Specifically, Isaac Newton’s second law of motion is mapped into the musical domain to create what I call the “Newtonian force” which is responsible for the motion of tones, possessing mass, through melodic lines. This is the first time these two bodies of knowledge—the realworld attributes of tones and the analytical methods of physics—have been brought together. Through analyses of melodies by J. S. Bach, Antonio Carlos Jobim, and Domenico Scarlatti, tones and their motions are shown to be analogous to physical objects and their motions in several ways. Thus, forcemodeling theory not only makes use of methods of analysis appropriate to physical motion to describe and quantify musical motion, but also demonstrates analogies between the physical and musical domains. Keywords: Melody, Force, Tone Mass, Velocity, Momentum, Physics, Metaphor, Newton. INTRODUCTION Metaphorical descriptions of music utilizing concepts and terminology borrowed from the physical domain, such as space and motion, have existed since the earliest writings on music theory. These metaphorical descriptions of music, however, have been vague by comparison to descriptions of the actual physical phenomena in terms of which they are made. In light of recent research by George Lakoff and Mark Johnson (1980, 1998), Mark Turner (1996), and others, a greater understanding of the cognitive functioning of metaphors has been reached. The work of Michael Spitzer (2004) and Roger Scruton (1997) focuses on musical metaphors specifically but, even so, metaphorical descriptions of music remain imprecise. This is a situation whose time for close examination is long overdue. More precise metaphorical descriptions of music can provide valuable analytical tools to the theorist that may reveal new and interesting aspects of melodic motion. In addition, if listeners conceive of musical objects, space, and motion in term of physical objects, space, and motion, then forcemodeling theory has the potential to enrich these listener conceptions. Forcemodeling theory makes an important distinction between notes and tones that the reader should keep in mind throughout this paper. In forcemodeling theory a melody is considered to consist of a single tone moving from note to note. In the case of a single melodic line, a single tone moves through the various positions either indicated by the notes of a score, if one is present, or through the conceptualized positions one imagines as a work is being heard. This way of thinking of melodic lines has previously been expressed by Ernst Kurth (translated by Lee Rothfarb, 1988) and Victor Zuckerkandl (1956). Adopting the stance that knowledge from the physical domain can be metaphorically mapped into the musical domain, force modeling theory asserts that listeners can conceive of tones as being objects. Also, from experience, listeners know that physical objects possess mass. I propose, therefore, that listeners can conceive of tones as being objects possessing mass. Furthermore, from their experience with common objects possessing mass, listeners know that physical objects behave according to Newton’s second law of motion, which predicts the forces necessary for the motions of physical objects. Knowledge of Newton’s second law is innate, having been gained from everyday experience with the physical world. This knowledge is integral to the way one experiences and operates in the world. Based on this familiarity with the behavior of 182 M. D. Jones Volume 7 – Fall 2009 physical objects, forcemodeling theory also asserts that listeners can conceive of tones as behaving according to Newton’s law and can therefore conceive of the forces necessary for the motion of physically conceived tones. Newton’s second law is therefore utilized in the musical domain as the basis of a quantitative measure I call the “Newtonian force.” The following presentation includes definitions of tone mass, the timelog(f) plane, tone position within the timelog(f) plane, tone displacement, tone velocity, tone momentum, and finally, Newtonian forces in the melodic line. Each of these topics is addressed separately beginning with tone mass. The first five notes of the subject of J. S. Bach’s C Minor Fugue from Book One of The WellTempered Clavier shall serve as an example as the theory is developed in the following sections. This excerpt is shown as Figure 1. Figure 1: The opening of J. S. Bach’s C Minor Fugue from Book One of The WellTempered Clavier. TONE MASS Forcemodeling theory utilizes the concept of tone mass to model the intuition that low tones are heavier than high ones. One need only consider musical examples such as SaintSeans’ Carnival of the Animals or Prokofiev’s Peter and the Wolf to confirm that composers often map lowpitched instruments onto large, heavy objects—people and animals in these cases— and highpitched instruments onto small, light objects. Based on the conception that lowfrequency tones are heavier than highfrequency tones, tone mass is defined to be an inverse function of a tone’s fundamental frequency. This general relation between tone mass and frequency is expressed formally as Equation 1. The value of the constant of proportionality c will be determined shortly. c m f Equation 1: Tone mass, preliminary version.