Aircraft Icing Study Using Integrated Observations and Model Data
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VOLUME 34 WEATHER AND FORECASTING JUNE 2019 Aircraft Icing Study Using Integrated Observations and Model Data FAISAL BOUDALA Observation Based Research Section, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada GEORGE A. ISAAC Weather Impacts Consulting Incorporated, Barrie, Ontario, Canada DI WU Observation Based Research Section, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (Manuscript received 19 March 2018, in final form 21 February 2019) ABSTRACT Light (LGT) to moderate (MOD) aircraft icing (AI) is frequently reported at Cold Lake, Alberta, but forecasting AI has been a big challenge. The purpose of this study is to investigate and understand the weather conditions associated with AI based on observations in order to improve the icing forecast. To achieve this goal, Environment and Climate Change Canada in cooperation with the Department of National Defence deployed a number of ground-based instruments that include a microwave radiometer, a ceilometer, disdrometers, and conventional present weather sensors at the Cold Lake airport (CYOD). A number of pilot reports (PIREPs) of icing at Cold Lake during the 2016/17 winter period and associated observation data are examined. Most of the AI events were LGT (76%) followed by MOD (20%) and occurred during landing and takeoff at relatively warm temperatures. Two AI intensity algorithms have been tested based on an ice 21 accumulation rate (IAR) assuming a cylindrical shape moving with airspeed ya of 60 and 89.4 m s ,andthe Canadian numerical weather prediction model forecasts. It was found that the algorithms IAR2 with ya 5 21 21 89.4 m s and IAR1 with ya 5 60 m s underestimated (overestimated) the LGT (MOD) icing events, 21 respectively. The algorithm IAR2 with ya 5 60 m s appeared to be more suitable for forecasting LGT icing. Over all, the hit rate score was 0.33 for the 1200 UTC model run and 0.6 for 0000 UTC run for both algorithms, but based on the individual icing intensity scores, the IAR2 did better than IAR1 for forecasting LGT icing events. 1. Introduction and duration of exposure to the icing environment. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification rule, Inflight icing occurs when an airfoil impacts with based on the Code of Federal Regulations Title 14, supercooled liquid drops that freeze on the surface, which Chapter 1, Part 25, Appendix C (FAR 25-C), only in- can degrade the performance of an aircraft to the point cludes the smaller drops with a mean effective diameter of lost control. The type of icing, such as clear, rime, or less than 40 mm, and was developed for accretion of ice mixed, depends on the cloud particle size distribution 2 on a nonrotating cylinder moving at 89.4 m s 1 (174 kt or N(D) of the supercooled drops and temperature. The se- 2 200 mi h 1) with a diameter of 3 in. (Jeck 2001,and verity or intensity of icing is usually characterized as trace, references therein). Now there is recognition of the light, moderate, and heavy, but the definition varies. The importance of larger drops (.50 mm) usually referred to icing intensity definitions for pilot reports (PIREPs), which as supercooled large drops (SLD) as described in Cober appear in the Aeronautical Information Manual (AIM), et al. (2001, 2009) and Cober and Isaac (2012). Currently are very complex. They depend on many factors including these finding are incorporated into the Appendix O icing the size and shape of the aircraft, ice accumulation rate, envelope for SLD (https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR- 2014-11-04/pdf/2014-25789.pdf). Corresponding author: Dr. Faisal Boudala, faisal.boudala@ The icing intensity scale (IIS) that was originally canada.ca adapted in the 1940s by the U.S. Weather Bureau [now DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0037.1 Ó 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). 485 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 08:47 PM UTC 486 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 34 incorporated into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric the instrumentation are given. A brief description of the 2 2 Administration (NOAA)] was defined as 0–1 g cm 2 h 2 HRDPS model is given in section 3. Comparisons of the 2 2 2 2 [trace (TR)], 1–6 g cm 2 h 2 [light (LGT)], 6–12 g cm 2 h 2 observed bulk microphysical quantities at the ground 2 2 [moderate (MOD)], or .12 g cm 2 h 2 [heavy or severe level against the HRDPS model predictions are pro- (SEV)]. The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program vided in section 4.Insection 5, the description of the ice Inflight Icing Product Development Team proposed a new accumulation algorithms is given along with some case approach for determining icing intensity that depends on an studies, and finally the data analysis results are discussed alternative ice accumulation rate in centimeters per hour in section 6. using several airfoil shapes including a cylinder (Politovich 2 2009). Using this method, the IIS is defined as 0.6–2.5 cm h 1 2 2 2. Study location and instrumentation (light), 2.5–7.5 cm h 1 (moderate), and .7.5 cm h 1 (severe). This is the definition used in the FAA Pilot The study area, the Cold Lake Regional Airport Guide: Flight in Icing Conditions (AC 91-74B, dated (CYOD), is located in northeastern Alberta, Canada 8 October 2015) and hence, this IIS is adapted in (541 m MSL; 548N, 1108W). The location and climatol- this paper. ogy of the area are described in Boudala et al. (2017). The implementation of these methods requires accu- The geographical locations of CYOD and the sur- rate prediction or measurements of cloud microphysical rounding areas are shown in Fig. 1. Figure 1b shows a quantities, such as the median volume diameter (MVD), collocated permanent meteorological hourly observa- liquid water content (LWC), and other standard mete- tion (METAR) site used by the Department of National orological quantities. Although numerical weather pre- Defence (DND). To the west and northwest of the air- diction (NWP) models can be sophisticated enough to port, there are a number of lakes (Marie, Ethel, Crane, be able to predict these quantities, the accuracy of their and Hilda) including large lakes to the northeast of the prediction is still a big challenge, and hence methodol- site (Cold and Primrose). These lakes are known to ogies were developed in the United States that incorporate contribute to the formation of precipitation and other more information such as satellite, surface station, and weather phenomena when the flow is from a north- radar data for predicting icing potential (e.g., Bernstein easterly direction. The west and southwest sides of the et al. 2005). There have been improvements in the NWP airport are surrounded by the Beaver River valley with models, but they are not adequately tested for their an east–west orientation, which is also known to con- ability to predict icing intensity. Thompson et al. (2017), tribute to the formation of various weather conditions at using the U.S. Weather Bureau ice intensity scale the airport. mentioned earlier and WRF Model data, found that The meteorological instruments used in this study are their method overestimated the TR and SEV icing events shown in Fig. 2 and include a PARSIVEL disdrometer and underestimated the LGT and MOD icing events that measures particles size and velocity in the size range when compared with PIREPs. For this study, pilot reports (0.2–20 mm) (Loffler-Mang and Lahak 2001; Loffler- confirming icing events and freezing precipitation that Mang and Joss 2000), a Jenoptic CM15K ceilometer, occurred at Cold Lake, Alberta, Canada, during the 2016/ and the Vaisala FS11P and PWD22 present weather 17 winter periods are examined with data collected during sensors that measure visibility, precipitation intensity Pr the same period using a multifrequency microwave and type, etc. The complete descriptions of the instruments radiometer (MWR), a ceilometer, and other specialized are given elsewhere (Boudala et al. 2017, 2014). Here brief instruments such as conventional weather sensors and discussions of the MWR, the Meteorological Particle disdrometers. The icing events are also examined using Spectrometer (MPS), and the Fog Monitoring Device aircraft icing intensity estimated using the two ice ac- (FMD) model (FM-120) are given. cumulation models mentioned above with the relevant The Radiometric MWR model MP-3000A uses 35 fre- forecasts obtained from the Canadian High Resolution quency channels to obtain vertical profiles of temperature Regional Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS). T, relative humidity (RH), LWC, and absolute humidity The main objectives of this study include 1) to test the ry at about 3-min intervals and vertical resolutions of ability of the HRDPS model to predict bulk micro- 50 m from the surface to 500 m, 100 m from 500 m to physical quantities and associated mean particle size 2 km, and 250 m from 2 to 10 km. The Radiometric ra- distribution N(D) as observed at ground level, 2) to test diometer uses statistical methods, with retrievals being the ability of the MWR to detect reported icing events, performed using a standard back-propagation algo- and 3) to test the ability of the HRDPS model to forecast rithm for training and a standard feed-forward network reported icing events. The sections are organized as for profile determination, as described by Solheim et al. follows. In section 2 a description of the study area and (1998). The training datasets can be historical rawinsonde Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 08:47 PM UTC JUNE 2019 B O UDALA ET AL.