TRAVEL DEMAND ANALYSIS OF SEPTA'S NEWTOWN LINE If~ DELAWARE VALLEY ~d' REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION February 1995 TRAVEL DEMAND ANALYSIS OF SEPTA'S NEWTOWN LINE #~ DELAWARE VALLEY ~, REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION The Bourse Building 111 S. Independence Mall East Philadelphia, PA 19106-2515 February 1995 II I This report is printed on recycled paper This report, prepared by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, was financed by the Federal Transit Administration, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, and the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority. The authors, however, are solely responsible for its finding and conclusions, which may not represent the official views or policies of the funding agencies. Created in 1965, the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) is an interstate, intercounty and intercity agency which provides continuing, comprehensive and coordinated planning for the orderly growth and development of the Delaware Valley region. The region includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties as well as the City of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania,· and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Mercer counties in New Jersey. The Commission is an advisory agency which divides its planning and service functions between the Office of the Executive Director, the Office ofPublic 4ffairs, and three line Divisions: Transportation Planning; Regional Information Services Center, which includes the Regional Planning Office,· and Finance and Administration. DVRPC's missionfor the 1990s is to emphasize technical assistance and services, and to conduct high priority studiesfor member state and local governments, while determining and meeting the needs ofthe private sector. The DVRPC logo is adapted from the official seal of the Commission and is designed as a stylized image of the Delaware Valley. The outer ring symbolizes the region as a whole while the diagonal bar signifies the Delaware River flowing through it. The two adjoining crescents represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the State of New Jersey. The logo combines these elements to depict the areas served by DVRPC. DELAWARE VALLEY REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION Publication Abstract TITLE Date Published: February 1995 TRAVEL DEMAND ANALYSIS OF THE NEWTOWN LINE Publication No. 95002 Geographic Area Covered: Bucks County, Montgomery County Key Words: Travel demand, rail ridership, catchment areas, demographic trends, travel forecasting, network simulation, trip generation, modal split. ABSTRACT 1Wo alternatives are considered for the restoration of service to SEPTA's Newtown Line. The first alternative considers a diesel shuttle train running between Newtown and a transfer station on the Warminster Line; and the second a limited diesel service to Suburban Station using a new connection to the Chestnut Hill West Line. Demographic and employment trends are examinedfor the study area, which includes corridors served by the line, as well as the adjacent Warminster and West Trenton rail lines. DVRPC's regional travel simulation process was used to forecast ridership for 1996 and 2005. For More Information Contact: t) Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission Regional Information Services Center The Bourse Building 111 S. Independence Mall East Philadelphia Pa. 19106-2515 (215) 592-1800 Travel Demand Analysis of the Newtown Line Page i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Executive Summary .................................... 1 I. Introduction. 3 II. Alternatives......................................... 5 III. Corridor Description . 9 IV. Travel Forecasting Methodology ............................ 19 V. Forecast Travel Demand ................................. 25 VI. Conclusion.......................................... 31 Tables 1. Rail Capture Zones .................................... 10 2. Demographic and Employment Trends . 13 3. Person and Transit Trips for 1990 and 2010 Trip Origins ............. 20 4. 1990 Census vs. Actual Station Boardings for the R2 and R3 Lines .. 23 5. 1990 Simulated vs. Actual Station Boardings for the R2 and R3 Lines ..... 23 6. Study Area Rail Ridership ................................ 26 Figures 1. Rail Ridership Trend ................................... 15 2. New Riders ......................................... 27 1. Service Restoration Alternatives for the Newtown Line. 7 2. Commuter Catchment Areas . 11 Travel Demand Analysis of the Newtown Line Page 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) asked DVRPC to estimate ridership under two alternative scenarios for the restoration of rail passenger service to Newtown in Bucks County. The line was last operated in 1983 as a diesel extension of the electrified R8 Fox Chase Line. The first alternative consisted of reopening the line from Newtown to its intersection with Conrail's Morrisville Line, just south of the Bucks/Montgomery county line. A connection to the Conrail line would be built and its right-of-way used to lay new track two miles west to the intersection with the R2 Warminster Line near Fulmor. Passengers would take a diesel-powered shuttle to Pulmor, and then transfer to the existing R2 electric service to complete their trips. The existing Pulmor station would be closed and replaced with a new station at the transfer point. Schedules for the Newtown trains would be coordinated to provide an approximate ten­ minute connecting time, and would consist of 18 weekday round trips, with six occurring the peak hours. Two versions of this alternative were considered, one in which capital investment is limited to restoring the track to a 30 mph standard, and the other a more capital intensive version in which speeds were raised to 50 mph. In the second alternative, diesel trains would run from Newtown to Pox Chase, and then continue along the traditional R8 routing as far as Wayne Junction. There a new 0.8-mile connection would be built linking the former Reading trunk line with the Chestnut Hill West Line, thereby permitting access to Thirtieth Street and Suburban stations without passing through the Center City Commuter Tunnel. Trains would terminate at Suburban Station, with the low­ emission diesel engine positioned near the tunnel mouth. Six round trips would be operated on weekdays, with two running during peak hours. Because of their proximity to the Newtown Line, the study area included the R2 (Warminster) and R3 (West Trenton) lines. Trends in population, number of households, automobile ownership, resident workers, and employment were projected for 1996 and 2005. The model was calibrated by simulating 1990 ridership, and comparing with SEPTA station boardings and journey-to-work data from the 1990 Census. Ridership estimates were then prepared for the two horizon years for the No-Build Alternative, which assumed continuation of existing service on the R2 and R3 lines, and for the two build alternatives. Total weekday boardings on the three lines is expected to grow from the 1990 base of 4,300 to more than 4,500 by 2005 in the absence of Newtown service. If service is restored to Newtown, total rail ridership to the study area is projected to increase by approximately 300. Although the limited direct service provided by Alternative 2 yields the highest ridership, the spread between the build alternatives is not large. The number of riders projected for 2005 on the Newtown Line ranges from 285 under the 30 mph scenario of Alternative 1 to 535 for Page 2 Travel Demand Analysis of the Newtown Line Alternative 2. Because the line draws some riders from the R2 and R3 lines, the number of new riders ranges from 285 to 345. Travel Demand Analysis of the Newtown Line Page 3 I. INTRODUCTION Historically, the Reading Railroad operated its passenger service to Newtown as a diesel extension of its electrified service to Fox Chase. Station stops in Montgomery County were made at Walnut Hill, Huntingdon Valley, and Bryn Athyn; and in Bucks County at County Line, Southampton, Churchville, Holland, George School, and Newtown. After 1976 the trains were operated by Conrail under contract to the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA). Service was terminated in July 1981 as part of SEPTA's overall elimination of service on non-electrified lines. However, protests in the Newtown area led to its restoration in October, a little more than two months later, this time with direct operation of the trains by SEPTA crews. Previously, the trains were operated under contract by Conrail. Winter weather combined with inadequate maintenance of the diesel rail cars forced a second termination in February 1983. Since then SEPTA has operated a Fox Chase-Newtown shuttle bus to act as a replacement for the rail service. Ridership through most of the 1960s and 1970s hovered around 200 inbound boardings per weekday, with a maximum of 289 recorded in passenger counts taken during May 1971. By the spring of 1981, just before the first termination of service, ridership had fallen to 117 inbound boardings, and after service was resumed it failed to break 100. Since 1970, more than 90 percent of the boardings have arisen from stations in Bucks County, with the heaviest loadings coming from Southampton. Patronage on the Newtown shuttle bus proved to be less than that on the trains, with about 80 daily inbound boardings recorded in 1990. Although ridership was never heavy and service has been absent since 1983, rapid growth in Bucks County around Newtown has stimulated recurring interest in reopening the line, and SEPTA is considering