Commercialbank Capital Sector Report: 1st Edition 2012 Commercialbank Capital | Construction Sector Report 2012 Foreword Dear Investors, Qatar continues to be a magnet for investment due to its impressive economic performance. On the back of a strong GDP growth of 19% in 2011, decelerating to a forecast 6% in 2012, Qatar’s GDP could reach USD 197 bn. Qatar also boasts the highest per capita income growth in the world. By 2016, it is expected to reach USD 112k per capita. This has led Qatar to witness a construction boom between 2006 and 2012 (ongoing construction related contracts have tripled in value). Qatar’s successful bid to host the 2022 FIFA world Cup has led the government to plan for high levels of investment in infrastructure and real estate development. Approximately USD 225 bn is expected to be required between 2011 and 2016, of which already USD 125 bn of spending has been unveiled for construction and energy projects only. The spending directly related to the preparation of the 2022 World Cup will amount to an estimated USD 80 bn of investment, encompassing commercial and infrastructure projects. Therefore the construction boom in Qatar is expected to continue, albeit with different priorities and involving new players. This sector report highlights the changing pace of the Qatari economy and construction sector segments (in comparison with other GCC countries) and provides detailed information on the current projects and expected investments. For each industry segment, we are presenting a proprietary summary timeline of key projects. To take into account the challenges, especially the tender phase and ramp up of the projects, but also the opportunities for additional growth to be generated thanks to the improved infrastructure and expertise based in Qatar, we have designed several scenarios of investment in infrastructure and real estate. These scenarios are based on our proprietary model taking into account the expected timeline, phasing and costs of most known major construction projects. In the last section of the report, we provide summary profiles of certain local and international companies, which are actively participating in transforming Qatar. 2012 is for most players, a year of preparation to take on new projects, with new partners, new financings and new clients. Investors in Qatar have therefore numerous opportunities to tap into the growth ahead, which creates new employment opportunities and continues to help position Qatar as a new major economic force. Do not hesitate to call on CBQ for investment, strategic or financing advice, as inspired by Qatar, we believe everything is possible. We hope you will find our initial coverage of the construction sector of interest, in addition to Commercialbank Capital’s future research publications. Commercialbank Capital Research 2 Page | 2 Commercialbank Capital | Construction Sector Report 2012 1. Executive Summary Qatar’s construction sector prospects are looking increasingly bright since winning the bid to stage the FIFA 2022 World Cup. Qatar is set to spend up to USD 150 bn on infrastructure projects over the next 5 to 6 years as it starts preparing for the World Cup. • Budget: The Qatari government has reportedly allocated a whopping 40% of its budget between now and 2016 to infrastructure projects, including USD 11.1 bn for a new international airport, USD 5.5 bn for a deepwater seaport and USD 1 bn for a transport corridor for the capital, Doha. It will spend USD 20 bn on roads while stadium construction for the World Cup should cost just under USD 4 bn, with the first venue to be built by 2015. According to German legal and financial adviser Dr Nicola Ritter, USD 48 bn will be spent to build air conditioned stadia, USD 77 bn will be spent on facilities for soccer fans and players from all over the world and USD 33 bn will be allocated for developing Lusail City. Qatar has also allocated USD 50 bn to upgrade its transport infrastructure, including new rail and metro systems. • Qatar on the fast track: The country has been one of the fastest growing in the world over the past few years (real GDP grew at a CAGR of 23% between 2003 and 2010). Qatar was the most resilient of the GCC economies during the global recession thanks to the capacity expansion and government initiatives to stimulate the financial sector. • Visionary Leadership: The Emir of Qatar has been instrumental in transforming Qatar into the power house within the region. In addition, the Emir led government has maintained political stability within the country despite the unrest in Middle East. The government has also allowed 100% foreign ownership in certain sectors, which is likely to improve liquidity in the form of FDI. Both the political and economic developments in Qatar are contributing to achieve the Vision 2030. • Diversifying strategy: The Government of Qatar has a well- planned strategy that will lead to long term growth sustainability. The government initiated their strategy by focusing on inherit strength, which is increasing export capacity of LNG. As the production led growth peaks in 2012, the government focused on non-hydrocarbon sector to push for growth post 2012. The accumulation of wealth from hydrocarbon sector was re-invested to diversifying its revenue base. The wealth is re-invested through Qatar petroleum in hydrocarbon sector, while Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) in non-hydrocarbon sector. In the initial years of growth, the government re-invested wealth to acquire foreign assets. However, the government has started focusing on investing domestically to boost the non-hydrocarbon sector. • Dual Government funding and PPP model: The government spending has increased as well as the adoption of PPP (Public Private Partnership) model in Qatar, especially in the hydrocarbon sector. According to National Development Strategy (NDS), the expected investment by the private sector is around USD 130 bn. Cheap lending as well as government’s initiatives will boost the confidence of the private sector, which will benefit the construction sector, and the whole economy in the long term. Commercialbank Capital Research 5 Page | 5 Commercialbank Capital | Construction Sector Report 2012 Key Projects Pearl GTL Project Value: USD 6.6 bn Commencement in Q4-11 Lusail Mixed-Use Refer: Section 9.1 Project Value: USD 33 bn Completion Date: 2018 Refer: Section 6.3 Doha Festival City Project Value: USD 1.7 bn Completion Date: Q4-14 Refer: Section 7.1 Pearl Qatar Project Value: USD 5 bn Completion Date: Q3-13 Refer: Section 6.1 Sidra Medical and Research Center Project Value: USD 7.9 bn Completion Date: Q4-12 Doha Cultural Village Refer: Section 8.2 (KATARA) Project Value: USD 82 mn Refer: Section 7.3 Qatar National Museum Education City Project Value: USD 434 mn Project Value: USD 6.6 bn Completion Date: 2014 Completion Date: Q2-12 Refer: Section 7.5 Refer: Section 8.1 Msheireb New Doha Int’l Airport (NDIA) Project Value: USD 5.5 bn New Doha Port (Phase I) Project Value: USD 11.1 bn Completion Date: Q4-17 Project Value: USD 7 bn Completion Date: 2015 Refer: Section 6.2 Completion Date: Q1-16 Refer: Section 5.3 Refer: Section 5.4 Source: Commercialbank Capital Research Commercialbank Capital Research 6 Page | 6 Commercialbank Capital | Construction Sector Report 2012 Exhibit 1.1: Key Projects in Doha 1 7 8 SIDRA MEDICAL 9 4 5 6 3 10 2 4. Lagoona Mall 5. Lusail City 1. Qatar National 2. Doha International 3. Museum of Convention Center Airports Islamic Art Refer: Section 7.2 Refer: Section 6.3 Refer: Section 8 Refer: Section 5.3 Refer: Section 7.5 6. Msheireb Project 7. Qatar Foundation 8. Education City 9. Sidra Medical 10. The Pearl Qatar Refer: Section 6.2 Refer: Section 8 Refer: Section 8.1 Refer: Section 8.2 Refer: Section 6.1 Source: Commercialbank Capital Research Commercialbank Capital Research 7 Page | 7 Commercialbank Capital | Construction Sector Report 2012 Exhibit 2: Segmentation of Construction Sector Construction Energy and Transportation Buildings* Utilities Oil & Gas Roads Retail Solar Enegy Railways Hospitality Social Utilities Airport Infrastructure Port Source: Commercialbank Capital Research * Residential and commercial buildings are not covered in this report, except for iconic projects. 1.1 Growth Drivers the tourism sector. We believe that winning the bid Robust Macroeconomic environment for World Cup 2022 will drive the construction sector as government will ensure that projects are Qatar has witnessed robust growth in GDP over completed on time to host the world biggest the last few years, which is driven by significant sporting event. increase in LNG export capacity. According to IMF, Qatar’s economy grew by 19% in 2011, up Well regulated and capitalized banking from 17% in 2010. In 2012, real GDP growth rate sector is projected to be 6%, with real hydrocarbon GDP slowing down to 3%, while non-hydrocarbon Qatar banking sector is well regulated by the sector is expected to grow by 9%. Central Bank and capitalized by the government of Qatar. Recently, the government of Qatar has Diversification at full stream completed the two year capitalization program. In August 2011, the central bank has lowered its The government launched National Development interest rates to kick start lending to private sector. Strategy (NDS) to achieve the targets of Vision The sector has optimum capital ratios that will 2030. The strategy is to use the hydrocarbon enable them to extend lending to the construction sector revenues to build the non-hydrocarbon sector in general and private sector in particular. sector and a more sustainable economic base. Qatar eyes 2020 Olympics FIFA World Cup 2022– The Game Changer Around one year back, Qatar won the bid to host The successful bid to host the FIFA World Cup world’s largest sporting event, FIFA World Cup 2022 has been a big achievement for Qatar.