UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT The Arab world needs more champions of science and technology, including in the political arena, to bring about the positive change to which the region aspires. Moneef R. Zou’bi, Samia Mohamed-Nour, Jauad El-Kharraz and Nazar Hassan A computer image of office buildings to be constructed in Dubai layer by layer using three-dimensional (3D) printing technology. The furniture will also be ‘printed’. See Box 17.7 for details. Image: courtesy of the Dubai Future Foundation 430 The Arab States 17 . The Arab States Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Sudan, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen Moneef R. Zou’bi, Samia Mohamed-Nour, Jauad El-Kharraz and Nazar Hassan INTRODUCTION The Arab region: from hope to turmoil The so-called Arab Spring was triggered by demonstrations The global financial crisis has ricocheted on the region in Tunisia in December 2010. Popular unrest quickly spread The Arab world1 is of strategic importance, owing to its location across the region, revealing a common aspiration towards and wealth of oil and natural gas: 57% of the world’s proven oil freedom, dignity and justice (ESCWA, 2014a). reserves and 28% of those for gas (AFESD et al, 2013). Since December 2010, Arab countries have undergone The tremors of the global financial crises of 2008 and 2009 and extraordinary transformations, including regime change in the subsequent recession in most developed countries affected Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen and the descent of Syria into Arab states in a variety of ways. The oil-exporting countries of civil war after what began as peaceful protests in the spring the Gulf Cooperation Council felt such tremors, most being of 2011. Despite having elected parliaments, Jordan and characterized by open financial and commercial systems with Bahrain also witnessed a series of demonstrations in favour high exposure to global financial markets and close association of reform in 2011. In Jordan, the protests were essentially with the global commodity markets (AFESD et al, 2010). Not directed against the failure of successive governments to so countries such as Algeria, Libya, Sudan and Yemen, where address serious economic issues and combat unemployment. local capital markets are not directly linked to global markets. In Bahrain, demonstrations were more political in nature and, However, as their economies also rely on oil revenue, the Brent to some extent, sectarian. crude price significantly affects their fiscal policy. In part, the upheaval in the Arab world was a reaction by In, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Syria and technology-savvy young Arabs to decades of political Tunisia, where the banking sector is dependent on national stagnation and the failure of some Arab governments borrowing sources, the economy was not directly affected to afford people adequate levels of socio-economic by fluctuations in global capital markets. Such countries development. Within a couple of years, however, the failure nevertheless felt these external economic shocks through their of the Arab Spring to deliver on its promises had left many close association with the markets of developed countries disillusioned. One of the great beneficiaries of the Arab and other major trading partners in the European Union (EU) Spring was the Muslim Brotherhood movement, which and USA. Needless to say, their exports depend primarily on won the election in Egypt in mid-2012; barely a year later, demand from the developed countries, in addition to income President Mohamed Morsi was deposed, following mass from tourism, remittances from expatriate workers and foreign popular protests at the Muslim Brotherhood’s failure to build direct investment (FDI) flows (AFESD et al, 2010). a national consensus to address the country’s problems. Since 2015, there have been repeated clashes between the The inability of most Arab countries since 2008 to address government of President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and the Muslim socio-economic needs effectively and ensure that their Brotherhood, which is now considered a terrorist organization economies have kept pace with population growth has created by the governments of several Arab and non-Arab countries, widespread frustration. Even before the economic crisis of including Bahrain, Egypt, the Russian Federation, Saudi 2008, unemployment in the Arab world was high,2 at around Arabia, Syria and the United Arab Emirates. The Egyptian 12%. Young job seekers constitute over 40% of the region’s government has, meanwhile, forged ahead with its ambitious unemployed. Today, over 30% of the population of Arab states expansion of the Suez Canal (Box 17.1) and, in March 2015, is aged less than 15 years. As of 2013, most Arab states had organized a major conference in Sharm El-Sheikh on the Chapter 17 achieved a gross tertiary enrolment rate of more than 30% theme of economic development (see p. 435). and even above 40% for Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Saudi Arabia but they have failed to create the appropriate value Military spending is eating up resources for chain of job openings required to absorb the spreading pool of development graduates. Military spending in the Middle East increased by 4% in 2013 to an estimated US$ 150 billion. Saudi Arabia’s own budget shot up by 14% to US$ 67 billion, allowing it to leapfrog over 1. Although members of the League of Arab States, Djibouti and Somalia are profiled the UK, Japan and France to become the world’s fourth- in Chapter 19 on East and Central Africa. largest military spender behind the USA, China and the 2. with a few exceptions, such as Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates Russian Federation, according to the Stockholm International 431 UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT Box 17.1: Upgrading the Suez Canal The Suez Canal provides a vital shipping and thereby cut the waiting time for ships (US$ 8.4 billion) had been raised, link between Europe and Asia. On from 11 to 3 hours. The area around the according to the Egyptian central bank, 5 August 2014, Egyptian President canal (76 000 km²) is being turned into an through the issuance of 500 million Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi announced plans international industrial and logistics hub. shares reserved for Egyptians. The for a ‘new’ Suez Canal that would run in Officials expect the new development to government inaugurated the new canal parallel to the current waterway. This was boost annual revenue from the canal, which on 6 August 2015. to be the first major expansion of this vital is operated by the state-owned Suez Canal trading route in its 145-year history. Authority, from US$ 5 billion at present Despite widespread acknowledgment to US$ 13.5 billion. In October 2014, work that the project is an economic The Egyptian plan to upgrade the Suez began on deepening the Suez Canal. necessity, some scientists fear that that it Canal could raise its capacity from 49 could damage the marine ecosystem. A to 97 passing ships a day by 2023. The Some shipping industry executives had group of 18 scientists from 12 countries current Suez Canal, which connects the expressed doubts as to whether Egypt could published a letter in 2014 in the journal Mediterranean with the Red Sea, can obtain sufficient funding to finish the project of Biological Invasions calling on the mostly only facilitate one-way traffic on schedule. The Egyptian government Egyptian government to take steps to and is too narrow at some points for was adamant that the project would not minimize any ecological damage. vessels to pass one another. The new be dependent on foreign funding. By canal is expected to solve this problem September 2014, the total amount needed Source: compiled by authors Peace Research Institute3 (see also Figure 17.1) However, the The voice and accountability indicator over the past ten largest increase in the region (27%) came from Iraq, which is years has been disappointing, according to Kaufmann et al. reconstituting its armed forces. (2011; 2013). In 2013, the scores for the top five Arab states (Tunisia, Lebanon, Morocco, Kuwait and Jordan) were low The escalating pressures on Arab states, particularly those by international standards (between the 45th and 25th related to security and counterterrorism – including military percentiles). Algeria, Iraq, Libya and Palestine show some confrontations with radical groups such as Al Qaida and improvement but, overall, 12 Arab states registered a decline Da’esh –, have spurred the governments of these countries to in voice and accountability between 2003 and 2013, namely: increase their own military spending. Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria and the United Arab Emirates. Still a long way to go to improve governance There is little doubt that corruption has played a pivotal role An economic downturn in most Mashreq countries in the outbreak of turmoil since 2010. Available estimates The countries of the Mashreq have a population of about suggest that the smuggling of funds amounted annually to 196 million, or 53.4% of the Arab population. With the US$ 2 billion in Egypt and US$ 1 billion in Tunisia, according exception of Iraq, they have few oil reserves. Thanks to to the institution charged with monitoring the soundness of high commodity prices for oil, Iraq was able to weather the global financial sector (Global Financial Integrity, 2013). the global financial crisis better than its neighbours. The This amount represented 3.5% of Tunisia’s GDP and 2% of slump in Sudan’s economy in 2012, however, was more Egypt’s in 2005. a consequence of the birth of South Sudan in 2011 and subsequent skirmishes between the two Sudans than the Government effectiveness has deteriorated in several Arab impact of global shocks.