Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, June 15

Headlines: ● Hamas Leader Joins Thousands of Gazans at Protest ● US Seeks to Stop Peace Plan from Being ‘Dead on Arrival’ ● Israel to Bar Documenting of Soldiers in West Bank ● Early Elections Possible as Rabbis Give Draft Law Ultimatum ● US Expected to Retreat from Main UN Rights Forum ● Jerusalem Mufti: US Plan Will ‘Liquidate Palestinian Cause’ ● IDF Chief of Staff Confirms He Will Not Serve Fifth Year ● As Ramadan Ends, Gazans Grieve for Lost Lives

Commentary: ● Al Monitor: “How IDF Chief Shapes the Israeli Military” − By Ben Caspit, Analyst, Al Monitor

● Jerusalem Post: “Is Legal Jeopardy Deepening for Netanyahu?” − By Yonah Jeremy Bob, Analyst, Jerusalem Post

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor

News Excerpts June 15, 2018

Times of Israel Hamas Leader Joins Thousands of Gazans at Protest Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh joined about 2,000 Gazans Friday for the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr near the perimeter fence with Israel, as part of the now weeks-long protests on the border. The Israeli army said an unarmed Palestinian had been arrested after infiltrating into Israel from the northern Gaza Strip, a frequent occurrence in the area. Additionally, A booby-trapped balloon was flown into Israeli territory, landing on a highway in the Sha’ar Hanegev region. Hamas on Thursday had threatened to send 5,000 fire kites and balloons deep into Israeli territory on Friday.

Jerusalem Post US Seeks to Stop Peace Plan from Being ‘Dead on Arrival’ President Donald Trump’s administration is engaged in an internal discussion over the timing and method of launching its Middle East peace plan, concerned their proposals may be dead on arrival if launched under unfavorable circumstances. Israeli government officials originally anticipated the US plan would land this summer, but White House officials have not yet settled on that time frame and may delay its rollout into the fall or even beyond if necessary. Senior officials said the peace team is working in unison, despite reporting of signs of strategic disagreement within the US camp.

Ha’aretz Israel to Bar Documenting of Soldiers in West Bank Israel’s Ministerial Committee for Legislation is expected to approve a bill on Sunday that seeks to ban documentation and distribution of any reports about confrontations between Israeli soldiers and Palestinians with the intent either to harm national security or to “break the spirit of Israeli soldiers and inhabitants.” The proposal calls for a maximum ten-year prison term for anyone photographing, recording or distributing IDF activity on social media with the aim of hurting the “soldiers’ spirit” or harming national security.

Times of Israel Early Elections Possible as Rabbis Give Draft Law Ultimatum A rabbinical decision-making council of an ultra-Orthodox party in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government called on its lawmakers Thursday to leave the coalition if a bill proposing to formalize limited ultra-Orthodox enlistment in the IDF passes in the Knesset. In September 2017, the High Court of Justice struck down the law exempting ultra-Orthodox men engaged in religious study from military service, saying it undermined the principle of equality before the law. However, the court suspended its decision for a year to allow for a new arrangement to be put in place, giving the government the option to pass a new law.

Reuters US Expected to Retreat from Main UN Rights Forum Talks with the US over how to reform the United Nations Human Rights council have failed to meet Washington’s demands, activists and diplomats say, suggesting that the Trump administration will quit the Geneva forum whose session opens on Monday. A US source said the withdrawal appeared to be “imminent” but had no details. Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN, said a year ago that Washington might leave the body unless a “chronic anti-Israel bias” were removed. The forum, set up in 2006, has a permanent standing agenda item on suspected violations committed by Israel in the occupied Palestinian territories, which Washington wants removed.

Times of Israel Jerusalem Mufti: US Plan Will ‘Liquidate Palestinian Cause’ The grand mufti of Jerusalem on Friday criticized Trump’s as-yet unannounced peace plan in his sermon to 90,000 worshippers gathered at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Speaking at Eid al-Fitr prayers marking the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, Sheikh Muhammad Hussein, the city’s highest Islamic authority, said it was an “unfair plan that aims at the liquidation of the Palestinian cause.”

Times of Israel IDF Chief of Staff Confirms He Will Not Serve Fifth Year IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot on Thursday confirmed he will step down from the role in six months, putting an end to speculation that his term could be extended for a second time. Eisenkot also said that amid tensions in both the north and south of the country, the army was “prepared for any mission.” The role of IDF chief of staff is a three-year position, though it can be extended by one or, on rare occasions, two years.

Reuters As Ramadan Ends, Gazans Grieve for Lost Lives Israel’s killing of at least 125 Palestinians during protests at the Gaza border is casting a shadow in the enclave on its marking the end of the fasting month of Ramadan. Economic hardship arising from years of blockades, conflict and internal political rivalries has also darkened the mood in the Hamas-run territory of two million people, where Gaza economists put the unemployment rate at 49.9 percent. Israel has said that many of the 125 dead were militants using civilians as human shields and that its army was repelling attacks on the border fence with Gaza.

Al Monitor – June 14, 2018 How IDF Chief Shapes the Israeli Military By Ben Caspit, Analyst, Al Monitor

● Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter is the darling of Religious Zionists in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). A combat officer, he has made his way up the IDF ladder in the toughest units, on the hottest military fronts and through the IDF’s most dangerous operations in the last decade. In recent years, Winter has become a symbol of the Zionist religious stream that has taken the military by storm in every branch — i.e., land, air and sea. The number of Religious Zionists in the army’s elite units, infantry and armored units is much greater than their percentage of the population. According to Israel’s Bureau of Statistics, 11% of Israeli Jews aged 20 and above self-identify as “religious.” About 40% of the soldiers who had completed the IDF’s officer training course as of 2017 were from the Zionist religious population. Even in the upper echelons, such as the infantry divisions, many of the commanding officers belong to this stream. There are not, however, brigadier generals from the Religious Zionist sector on the next highest rung of the IDF ladder, such as commanders of infantry divisions, the most prestigious commanding roles in the army. This statistic infuriates the national-religious Jews.

● Some believe that the army’s highest echelons are blocking their youth from the highest levels for political reasons. Religious Zionists are known as right-wing ideologists. Prior to the disengagement from Gaza in 2005, there was concern that some of them would refuse to follow military orders and instead obey their rabbis. They are part of Naftali Bennett’s HaBayit HaYehudi electoral pool. Despite the fact that they have, to date, passed all the “military versus religious tests,” they still bear an automatic burden of proof. The round of IDF appointments announced June 11 transformed Religious Zionist infuriation into a real uproar.

● Despite expectations, and after Winter’s promotion had been frozen in the past, the IDF chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, did not promote him to division commander. Instead, Winter remains in the lackluster division to which he was appointed after he concluded his stint as brigade commander of Givati. This can mean only one thing: The chief of staff is showing Winter the door. Thus, one of the bravest and most creative officers in the army, the man who was supposed to be the next religious general and potential leader, will evidently not become a member of the IDF’s prestigious chief of staff forum. Thus, Eizenkot has branded himself as the person out to get the Zionist religious sector in the IDF. Those who really know Eizenkot know that he distances himself from politics. The officers promoted over Winter’s head are also worthy soldiers. The group includes a former member of the General Staff Reconnaissance Unit and a former naval commander unit officer. The chief of staff has the absolute authority to appoint officers on this level, and his decisions cannot be appealed. All anyone can do is criticize his decisions.

● Eizenkot’s high valuation of Winter suffered somewhat after the 2014 Operation Protective Edge campaign in Gaza, when Winter commanded the Givati Brigade. In that campaign, Lt. Hadar

Goldin was killed in a Hamas ambush of Givati during a humanitarian cease-fire. Hamas then seized Goldin’s body. Under Winter, Givati conducted the famed Hannibal Procedure: The IDF rained heavy fire on the Rafah area, causing numerous Palestinian casualties. This, in turn, led to heavy criticism of Israel and the IDF’s fire procedures. Despite this, it is believed that Winter’s actions in other contexts are what truly undercut Eizenkot’s image of Winter.

● During the operation, Winter met at least once with Naftali Bennett, Cabinet member and head of HaBayit HaYehudi, the party of the Zionist religious stream. Winter and Bennett are brothers in arms. They served together in the IDF’s elite Maglan Special Forces unit and remained close friends from then on. It was based on Winter’s information and briefings that Bennett sharply criticized IDF policy and conduct in Cabinet meetings. Bennett especially criticized Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon. Winter’s tie to politicians behind the army's back angered many among the IDF’s top echelons. Winter also rang warning bells in the IDF during Protective Edge by circulating a letter among his subordinate officers in which he said that they were chosen to spearhead the fighting against “the terrorist ‘Gazan’ enemy which abuses, blasphemes and curses the God of Israel’s [defense] forces.” One highly placed chief of staff forum officer who objected to Winter's language told Al-Monitor at the time, on the condition of anonymity, “Jihad is something we leave to the other side.”

● Winter recanted his statement, but his message appeared to continue to resonate in the public arena. Thus, the outstanding officer, brave and creative, crossed several red lines while trying to make his way to the top. One of these lines was especially sensitive and explosive: the huge gap separating the worldviews of secular or traditional IDF soldiers and those of Religious Zionist fighters, who are much more committed to their rabbis’ dictates and to Jewish religious law, including when these collide with military orders. In the last decade, Religious Zionist members have largely replaced the collective secular pioneers and kibbutz movement members in the IDF’s combat and command backbone. In the first decades after the establishment of the state, multitudes of kibbutz and moshav (village) members filled the combat fighter ranks. This sector raised thousands of fighters, hundreds of officers and a significant proportion of military leaders who later became the state’s leaders. Societal evolution in Israel changed this.

● While a significant percentage of kibbutz members still serve in the army — as combat soldiers and officers and after compulsory service — the Religious Zionists have stolen the show. The face of the IDF is slowly changing. Religion is seeping into places and events where it never had before. This raises concern among many over the way the army is changing. The IDF has always tried to remain focused on its military goals without a hidden agenda, free of messianism and unprofessional “foreign” interests. Recent years have seen storms in the Israeli public, surrounding statements made by prominent Religious Zionist rabbis who not infrequently crossed the line into the ostensibly isolated sphere of the army. The IDF has already imposed sanctions on pre-military religious academies that failed to close ranks with army orders. The atmosphere surrounding this sensitive issue is steadily heating up. Religious Zionist soldiers feel betrayed. They feel that while they constitute a significant proportion of the IDF’s combat ranks, the army is trying to push them away instead of thanking them.

● Now Eizenkot is in their crosshairs, and not for the first time. True, Bennett and his crowd know that the chief of staff is not driven by any political agenda and has no secret plans to edge the Religious Zionists out of the IDF. Nevertheless, right-wing tweeters and “professional troublemakers” continue to spread accusations against Eizenkot and other IDF elites and “count kippot” (Jewish skullcaps) in the chief of staff forum. When will this end? Perhaps when the IDF appoints its first Religious Zionist chief of staff. In other words, not in the foreseeable future.

Jerusalem Post – June 14, 2018 Is Legal Jeopardy Deepening for Netanyahu? By Yonah Jeremy Bob, Analyst, Jerusalem Post

● Case 4000 was a game changer for Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit. He will not say it out loud yet, but the chances are very high that sometime in 2019 he will announce his intention to indict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Case 4000 – the Bezeq-Walla! affair. This will start the real battle over whether Netanyahu must resign, which would also cause the government to fall. The all-important debate over whether a prime minister under indictment must resign or can be forced to quit by the High Court of Justice may then hinge on whether Netanyahu is indicted for bribery or mere breach of public trust and on how many cases he is indicted in. What will Mandelblit do about all of these questions, as he holds the fate of the nation in his hands?

● One clear message is that if Netanyahu is indicted for bribery and in multiple cases as opposed to mere breach of public trust, Mandelblit, who is more relaxed about the massive weight on his shoulders than he was a few months ago, is much more convinced that ultimately the prime minister would need to step down. Bribery charges are also more likely than they were some months ago.

● How stepping down would happen is still complicated, and The Jerusalem Post learned that it is very unlikely that Mandelblit would himself push out the prime minister. But recognizing that former High Court presidents Aharon Barak and Meir Shamgar have both said an indicted prime minister must or should step down, one could see Mandelblit standing before the High Court and telling them that it is hard for him to defend the prime minister continuing. If he took that position, it could give them the cover to order a resignation. Not that any of this is guaranteed, with recently retired High Court president Miriam Naor repeatedly refusing to take a stance on the all-decisive legal question so as not to tie the High Court’s hands.

● Also, with Mandelblit’s negotiation style with Sara Netanyahu on display and his former closeness to the prime minister, there is a decent chance that he might succeed in avoiding this. He might convince Netanyahu to step down or decline to run for reelection of his own accord. To understand how, after the last few months, Netanyahu is in much deeper legal jeopardy than he was before, we need to return to Case 4000. Case 4000 alleges that the prime minister pushed for government telecommunications policy to benefit Bezeq, in return for positive media coverage from the Walla! media outlet – both owned by tycoon Shaul Elovitch.

● Some of what the Post learned recently was very surprising and goes against the grain of what much of the media is reporting. First, while Case 4000 has many strong points, sources close to Mandelblit say he views the most powerful evidence against the prime minister as very clear. His alleged order to his former campaign manager and director-general of the communications ministry, Shlomo Filber, to approve Bezeq’s merger with Yes – against all professional-level advice – is very damaging. This was a massive and provable financial gain for Elovitch. Until

Filber turned state’s witness, Netanyahu could present Filber as a nonpolitical professional who supported the merger on substantive grounds (even if most nonpolitical experts opposed it).

● However, once Filber turned state’s witness and said that the merger was improper and that he had backed it only under Netanyahu’s orders, this defense likely fell by the wayside. While much of the media is reporting that Case 4000 is extremely similar to Case 2000 and greatly increased the likelihood that Case 2000 will lead to an indictment, in a profound surprise, Mandelblit views them as mostly different. As mentioned, Case 4000, the Bezeq-Walla! affair, is essentially about media bribery. Case 2000 is also about media bribery. The prime minister is accused of trying to reduce Israel Hayom’s competitiveness in exchange for positive coverage from Yediot Aharonot. But other than the common media bribery theme, Mandelblit views the cases as very different, not only in terms of the different players with whom Netanyahu interacted, but also in terms of the evidence that can be brought to prove each evidentiary point necessary to put together a full case. For one, Case 4000 alleges actual media bribery, and Case 2000 alleges only attempted media bribery.

● Mandelblit would agree that the trend of Netanyahu allegedly being involved in media bribery as well as information provided by the prime minister’s former top adviser and now state’s witness, Nir Hefetz, improved Case 2000. He would say Case 2000 was improved from a very hard case to win to becoming more possible. But he is still dismissive of those who view it as a slam dunk and views Case 2000 as the weakest of the three cases. Just as significantly, there has been much less reporting about the connection between Cases 4000 and 1000. Yet it is there where Mandelblit surprises again and would say that the Bezeq-Walla! affair may have moved a case that was already somewhat stronger than Case 2000 into a clearer candidate for indictment.

● A very real scenario is indictments in Cases 4000 and 1000, with Case 2000 being closed. Why? Essentially, they both involved Netanyahu in allegedly corrupt relationships with rich and powerful figures who were allegedly looking to get special treatment by providing benefits to him. In Case 1000, billionaires Arnon Milchan, James Packer and possibly some others allegedly gave the prime minister extremely expensive cigars, champagne and other gifts to curry favor with him on a variety of business issues. Sources close to Mandelblit specifically point out that new evidence from Hefetz has helped bolster the argument that Milchan had what to gain from his gifts to Netanyahu, and that the prime minister was acting to assist Milchan in exchange. Until some of this evidence came in, the evidence to prove that Netanyahu acted on behalf of his wealthy gift-givers was much slimmer in Mandelblit’s version of events. Since he always showed he was unimpressed with the narrative that simply the gifts themselves to the prime minister essentially proved a crime, these new pieces of evidence were crucial for him regarding Case 1000. This also explains why Case 1000 may be slowed down some months to allow Case 4000 to catch up.

● True, the police had already recommended Netanyahu be indicted for bribery in Case 1000 in February. True, the prosecution staff are already basically ready to send Case 1000 to State Attorney Shai Nitzan, endorsing the police’s recommendation. Yet Mandelblit consistently

exhibits a preference, both in the prime minister’s cases and in his wife’s cases, to bundle them together in one decision. Add in that Hefetz’s new evidence for Case 4000 also influenced the picture of evidence and helps prove Netanyahu’s alleged corrupt intent in Case 1000, and it becomes likely that the attorney-general will wait on Case 1000 until he can issue a global decision on all of the cases. No matter how hard he is pressed, Mandelblit is very careful not to commit to any specific date about the prime minister’s cases. But the vibe is very clear that his decision will come out in 2019 and maybe in only a few months.

● When one speaks of his decision, the meaning is not the final decision to indict, but an earlier decision which will already fundamentally alter the political and legal playing fields. In the case of senior public officials, there are two major stages that already have some public exposure before the decision to indict. First, the attorney-general publicly announces an intention to indict. In that decision, the attorney-general usually give substantial detail outlining the allegations and evidence that will be likely be contained in the indictment. That is what will likely happen during 2019 and possibly within only a few months. Though it is not an indictment itself, it will heavily increase the calls for Netanyahu to resign and may lead to the first serious petition to the High Court to force the prime minister to step down if he attempts to keep going.

● If Netanyahu stays on, the next step would be a pre-indictment hearing, where the prime minister’s lawyers get a special shot at convincing Mandelblit to back down or reduce the severity of the indictment. When Avigdor Liberman was due to be indicted, he successfully got Mandelblit’s predecessor, Yehuda Weinstein, to close the larger of two cases against him, though one indictment still went to trial. However, more often than not, the pre-indictment hearing does not fully eliminate all charges. Though the vibe is that the end is in sight with the prime minister’s cases, which became official in January 2017 (with pieces having broken in the news even earlier), there are many questions about why Mandelblit has not already decided the cases and is not moving faster.

● The attorney-general would say that if he had skipped reviewing new evidence that came out from Hefetz, he would be attacked for blocking the police from following all of the possible leads. This is a theme he shared with the Post in early 2017. In this spirit, Mandelblit would note that while most of the new evidence from Hefetz helped the prosecution’s cases, there is also some evidence that might help Netanyahu’s defense. He is concerned that he could be accused of concealing evidence if he did not make sure that this is reviewed and eventually provided to Netanyahu’s lawyers. Further, from a professional perspective, sources close to Mandelblit would say that in these cases more than in any other case, set procedures must be observed so there are no allegations of bias. This means that first the prosecution staff makes a recommendation to Nitzan, who makes a recommendation to Mandelblit, who only at that point decides. It is becoming increasingly likely that the man who was accused of being too close to Netanyahu, having worked with or for Netanyahu in a number of positions over several years, and who has strong personal admiration for his abilities, will paradoxically be the one who will fulfill a duty to take him down.