Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, February 28

Headlines: ● Likud Tries Last Ditch Effort to Prevent Indictment Decision ● Poll: Indictment Could Be Election Game-Changer ● Survey: Right-wing Voters Say PM Being Framed ● Gantz Denies Accusation of Sexual Assault in High School ● UN: Israel May Have Committed Crimes Against Humanity ● Kushner Makes Little Progress Lobbying Gulf on US Plan ● Israel Strikes Hamas in Gaza After Incendiary Attacks ● Tensions Rise in Israeli Jails as Prisoners Nix Leadership

Commentary: ● Al Monitor: “Is Netanyahu Coordinating with Trump over Peace Plan” − By Ben Caspit, Senior Columnist ● New York Times: “Election Shows Death of the Two-State Solution” − By Shmuel Rosner, Editor, Jewish Journal

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor

News Excerpts February 28, 2019

Times of Israel Likud Tries Last Ditch Effort to Prevent Indictment Decision In a last-ditch attempt to prevent criminal charges against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the April elections, the Likud party filed a petition Thursday morning calling on the High Court to block the announcement expected later in the day. According to Likud’s legal adviser, allowing Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit to publicize his decision so close to the elections would be an “unprecedented interference” in the democratic process. The Justice Ministry said there was no legal cause for preventing the publication.

Times of Israel Poll: Indictment Could Be Election Game-Changer The indictment decision could have a game-changing impact on the elections, a new Times of Israel poll shows. Likud would lose both a significant chunk of support, as well as its ability to form a coalition after the vote, the survey finds. According to the poll, Likud would drop from a previously predicted 29 seats to 25. The Benny Gantz-Yair Lapid alliance Blue and White would rise dramatically, from 36 to 44 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas would fail to clear the 3 percent threshold.

Ha’aretz Survey: Right-wing Voters Say PM Being Framed Almost half of Israelis have little or no trust, in Mandelblit, according to a new survey. This group is made up not just of Likud voters, but also religious Zionist and Haredi communities. According to the poll, About 75 percent of the ultra-Orthodox Israelis surveyed said law enforcement are participating in an attempt to remove Netanyahu, as did 65 percent of Likud voters.

Times of Israel Gantz Denies Accusation of Attempted Sexual Assault Would-be prime minister Gantz on Wednesday flatly rejected claims by a US-based Israeli woman that he exposed himself in front of her some 40 years ago, when she was 14 and he was some years older. Gantz’s Blue and White party dismissed the allegation, posted by Navarone Jacobs in a Facebook post earlier in the day, and said the former IDF chief of staff was taking legal action against her. Jacobs alleged in her post that the incident took place when they were both at central Israel’s Kfar Hayarok youth village.

The New York Times UN: Israel May Have Committed Crimes Against Humanity United Nations investigators said on Thursday that Israeli troops may have committed crimes against humanity in shooting unarmed civilians, including children, who posed no threat during the mass protests last year at the border with Gaza. A commission of inquiry, formed by the United Nations Human Rights Council to look into the violence, reported that Israeli security forces had killed 189 Palestinians and injured more than 9,000 others. It accused Israeli authorities of showing little willingness to prosecute anyone responsible. The Israeli Foreign Ministry dismissed the report as a product of bias and blamed Hamas for the violence.

Reuters Kushner Makes Little Progress Lobbying Gulf on US Plan White House adviser Jared Kushner made a whirlwind visit this week to rally U.S.-allied Gulf Arab allies to support his still- unannounced Middle East peace plan, the leaked contours of which suggest little has been done to address Arab demands. One of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the plan presented this week did not appear to take into consideration previously stated Arab demands on the status of Jerusalem, the right of Palestinian refugees to return and Israeli settlements.

Jerusalem Post Israel Strikes Hamas in Gaza After Incendiary Attacks The Israeli Air Force attacked Hamas posts in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday in response to explosive balloons launched from Gaza, which detonated and damaged a house near the border. "The IDF views with great severity any attempt to harm Israeli citizens and will continue to act vigorously against these incidents," the IDF said after the attack. "The Hamas terrorist organization bears responsibility for everything that is happening in and out of the Gaza Strip that are consequences of terrorist activities originating in the Gaza Strip."

Ha’aretz Tensions Rise in Israeli Jails as Prisoners Nix Leadership Palestinian security prisoners held in Israel are expected to announce Thursday that they are dismantling the prisoner representative councils, meaning the end of formal leadership for prisoners. The announcement will include prisoners from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, but not Fatah. Senior Palestinian sources told Haaretz that this move will increase the tensions in the security wings and that the Israel Prison Services will have a hard time controlling the environment due to the lack of leadership, which normally controls the prisoners.

Al Monitor – February 27, 2019 Is Netanyahu Coordinating with Trump over Peace Plan? By Ben Caspit, Senior Columnist

● The interview given by US President Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Sky News Arabia on Feb. 25 did not please associates of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to a political source who spoke with Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, senior Cabinet members labeled it a “verbal terror attack.’’ Prior to the interview in which Kushner disclosed details from the “deal of the century” on which he has been laboring with US special envoy Jason Greenblatt over the last two years, most of Israel’s senior right-wing officials had been convinced that Netanyahu was fully coordinating with Trump on everything connected to the US peace proposal that was taking shape. “But suddenly,” said a senior Cabinet member to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “along came Kushner at the worst possible time, with the worse possible details, thus forcing Netanyahu on the defensive.”

● The day after the interview, Netanyahu instructed all the ministers in his government — no exceptions — to maintain their silence and not give interviews or even address the American initiative and/or Kushner’s details. Simultaneously, as could be expected, a multi-participant squabble broke out throughout the right-wing camp over Kushner's and Netanyahu’s words. Education Minister Naftali Bennett has been trying for a while now to stop the flow of right-wing votes from his party to Netanyahu’s — exactly as happened in the 2015 elections — so this was an opportunity he could not miss. Bennett immediately announced that “Netanyahu will divide Jerusalem.” In response, Netanyahu "advised" Bennett to calm down and denied any such possibility. Bennett did not calm down and on Feb. 27 called upon Trump to publish his Mideast plan before Israeli elections.

● The prime minister tried to somehow leverage even this explosive event. He hinted that just as he was able to face down President [Barack] Obama, he'll be able to do the same vis-a-vis Trump as well with regard to defending Israel’s interests — in other words, to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. It is not clear if this message has really penetrated the hard-right-wing voters who negate the two-state solution and sanctify the status quo. Despite all of this, most of Netanyahu’s Cabinet ministers are still convinced that he is coordinating with the Americans regarding the details of the proposal taking shape and also regarding the timing of its disclosure. “He knows what’s in the offer,” a non-Likud senior minister told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. The minister added, “He’ll also control the timing for when it will be placed on the table. The problem is that Netanyahu did not anticipate Kushner’s interview. Turns out that there are limits to even Netanyahu’s ability to control the White House.”

● Another minister, also speaking on condition of anonymity, added, “So it’s not just Netanyahu who has ‘internal needs.’ The Americans also face constraints of their own. President Trump is under heavy pressure, and he’s trying to create a global agenda and international leadership.

We see this with regard to China, with regard to the meeting held with [North Korea leader] Kim [Jong-un] and also in the Middle East arena. Netanyahu learned a hard lesson this week.”

● The prevailing opinion within Israel’s highest political-security ranks is that Netanyahu is completely in the US administration’s loop regarding the “deal of the century,” and that Washington and Jerusalem were supposed to present it after the elections. “The “deal of the century,” explains a high-level Israeli Cabinet member speaking with Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “is meant to try to extricate Netanyahu from his legal troubles. After the elections, he is supposed to take a political turn to the center and announce to the public that there is no way he can turn down the best US president that Israel ever faced in the White House." The minister added, “On this basis, he will establish a coalition based only on parties willing to say ‘yes’ to Trump, on the assumption that the Palestinians would do the work for us by again rejecting any possibility of reaching an arrangement with Israel.”

● The problem is that Netanyahu is, at the moment, on an entirely different trajectory. “After the elections” is another story altogether. Now he is focused on the right, and his highest strategic-existential goal is to bring as many votes as possible to the Likud in order to signal Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit that the "nation is with Netanyahu" despite investigations, recommendations and indictments. “He is supposed to make his left-wing about-face only after stealing all the right-wing votes,” one of Netanyahu’s right-wing adversaries explained on condition of anonymity, “From this point of view, Kushner’s words — which included a mention of a restructuring of Israel’s borders — completely disrupted Netanyahu’s election strategy.”

● Netanyahu’s hopes of avoiding an indictment against him by agreeing to an arrangement with the Palestinians is based on mistaken basic assumptions. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert found himself in a similar situation about a decade ago when he offered a generous, unprecedented Israeli peace proposal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas when he Olmert was up to his neck in criminal investigations in 2008. Olmert was the dream come true of all left-wing Israelis: He had been a Herut [Likud] member from birth who went from the depths of the right to a peace-pursuing leftist who “saw the light” and agreed to go the whole nine yards for peace. But this had no effect at all on the police, the attorney general or the state attorney's office. Netanyahu still hopes that with him, things will be different. As opposed to Olmert, Netanyahu is a popular prime minister. Many Israelis feel that only he could craft a peace agreement that would earn the confidence of the Israeli public.

● On the other hand, loathing and abhorrence of Netanyahu is so deeply rooted in the Israeli center-left that even if he’d divide Jerusalem with his own hands and offer it to Abbas on a silver platter, no one would be convinced. And with all due respect to Kushner, Netanyahu’s real troubles lie in wait for him this coming weekend or at the beginning of March when Mandelblit will probably publicize his decisions regarding the prime minister’s criminal portfolios. This is a key watershed event that is expected to begin the countdown toward the end of the Netanyahu era. The prime minister is in real trouble and under great pressure. Word circulated Feb. 26 that the attorney general was deliberating about submitting his decisions Feb. 28. Netanyahu was on

his way to the airport, ready to take off for an important meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. At first, he considered lengthening his stay in Moscow, thus forcing Mandelblit to delay the dissemination of his decision. Afterward, he understood that shenanigans of this type would only harm him. Thus, the prime minister decided to shorten his visit to the minimum and return to Israel on Feb. 27 in order to prepare for what awaits him on Feb. 28. Netanyahu is lagging behind the Blue and White Party in the polls. In Mandelblit’s office, Netanyahu is expected to be slapped with an indictment of bribery. One way or the other, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting against all odds.

The New York Times – February 27, 2019 Election Shows How Dead the Two-State Solution Really Is By Shmuel Rosner, Editor, Jewish Journal

● His slogan contends that “there is no more left or right.” The list of candidates he’s running with includes a hawkish former Likud defense minister and a hawkish former Likud government secretary. In his first speech as a candidate, he vowed to keep the Jordan Valley “our eastern security border” and to “maintain security in the entire land of Israel,” by which he means the West Bank. A campaign video credits him with sending parts of Gaza “back to the Stone Age.” Despite all this, Gen. Benny Gantz, a former Israeli Army chief of staff and a newly minted politician, is the candidate of Israel’s left of center for the April 9 general election. He is the candidate of what used to be called the “peace camp.”

● And it turns out that his party has a good chance of winning. Last week, Mr. Gantz and Yair Lapid, who for the last seven years led the Yesh Atid party, announced that they are joining forces in a new party of parties they call Kahol Lavan, or Blue and White, the colors of Israel’s flag. Mr. Gantz and Mr. Lapid will, if they win, take turns serving as prime minister, beginning with two and a half years of Mr. Gantz. Polls predict a close race, with Kahol Lavan surging in recent days. But the real lesson here isn’t just that tactical alliances are the best way to defeat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after 10 consecutive years in office. What this election is showing is that no party with even half a chance of winning power in Israel still supports the commonly understood version of a two-state solution. Paying lip service and using the term “two-state solution”? Maybe. But supporting two states — in the full meaning of the term state? Not so much.

● That’s not to say no one still believes in a fully independent Palestinian state. Dovish members of the shrinking Labor Party and the left-wing Meretz Party still believe in the evacuation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and seem to be in favor of a Palestinian state with more control of its own borders. The Arab parties, too, want a fully independent Palestine. But Labor and Meretz are unlikely to win more than a few seats in the Knesset, and no Israeli party with the realistic ambition to be the ruling party is likely to cooperate with the Arab parties.

● Kahol Lavan has not yet announced a platform, but here is what we can guess about its positions: It will demand that Jerusalem stay united under Israel’s jurisdiction; it would keep the main settlement blocs in place; it will oppose a unilateral evacuation of settlements; it will want Israel’s eastern border, in the Jordan Valley, to remain under Israel’s control. And most important, it will likely demand that the Israeli Army has the right to operate in all of the territory between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River. When the Palestinians envision their future, they envision a real state. When Israel’s center-left envisions the future, it envisions an entity in which the Palestinians have autonomy and one in which they can exercise their national self-determination, with the following caveat: Israel retains the right to operate militarily in this area and Israel controls all of its borders.

● In fact, what Mr. Gantz and the center-left now offer the Palestinians is very similar to what they might get from Mr. Netanyahu who once called it a “state minus.” Even Naftali Bennett, the leader of the even more right-wing party, New Right once agreed to “autonomy plus,” a formulation that is different more in tone than in substance. Of course, there still might be a real difference between the center-left and the right. Maybe Mr. Gantz seriously means what he says, while Mr. Netanyahu is just playing for time. Or maybe Mr. Gantz will change his tune once he is elected and decide to withdraw unilaterally from the West Bank, or accept a different deal from the one he is now supporting, as has happened with previous prime ministers.

● Either way, though, the party’s stated positions tell us plenty about Israel’s state of mind. Israel’s trust-the-Palestinians camp lost the argument after the 2000 Camp David summit failed and was followed by a bloody Palestinian uprising, the second Intifada. Israel’s unilateral-withdrawal camp lost the argument following the 2005 “disengagement” from the Gaza Strip, which resulted in nearly constant conflict on the Israel-Gaza border. Even many Israelis who believe that the Palestinians deserve a state find it difficult to believe that Palestinian leaders and institutions can be trusted with one.

● Israel’s current election cycle is quite revealing in this sense. The main parties, Likud and Kahol Lavan, both speak about security much more than about peace. Both are attacked from the right because of the likelihood that they will accept the “deal of the century” — President Trump’s peace plan, which is slated to be revealed immediately after the election. Both are attacked from the left for offering essentially the same platform — Mr. Netanyahu’s — when it comes to peace with the Palestinians. So, this is it. The two-state solution is acceptable to most Israelis, including center-right, center and center-left Israeli voters, only if the Palestinians do not really get what they consider a state. This probably means, that it cannot be a solution. Not for a very long time.