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SUBMISSION of the CITY of CHESTERMERE Tab 1 MGB FILE NO. I6/IMD/001 IN THE MATTER OF AN INTERMUNICIPAL DISPUTE INITIATING CITY OF CHESTERMERE MUNICIPALITY RESPONDENT ROCKY VIEW COUNTY MUNICIPALITY DOCUMENT SUBMISSION OF THE CITY OF CHESTERMERE NAME C. Richard Jones (ORGANIZATION) McMillan LLP ADDRESS FOR 1700, 421 – 7th Avenue SW SERVICE Calgary, AB T2P 4K9 EMAIL [email protected] TELEPHONE 403.531.8739 (FOR PERSON FILING THIS DOCUMENT) Tab 1: Economic Development Tab 2: Regional Planning Tab 3: Social Infrastructure Tab 4: Stormwater Management Tab 5: Transportation MGB FILE NO. I6/IMD/001 IN THE MATTER OF AN INTERMUNICIPAL DISPUTE INITIATING CITY OF CHESTERMERE MUNICIPALITY RESPONDENT ROCKY VIEW COUNTY MUNICIPALITY DOCUMENT SUBMISSION OF THE CITY OF CHESTERMERE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Prepared by Stephen Johnson (SJ Research Services) and Robin Woodward (RW Consulting) RETAIL GAP ANALYSIS Prepared by Cushing Terrell Architecture Inc. Presented by Jean-Marc Lacasse NAME C. Richard Jones (ORGANIZATION) McMillan LLP ADDRESS FOR 1700, 421 – 7th Avenue SW SERVICE Calgary, AB T2P 4K9 EMAIL [email protected] TELEPHONE 403.531.8739 (FOR PERSON FILING THIS DOCUMENT) Tab A: Economic Impact of Conrich ASP on the City of Chestermere and Region – Summary Report Tab B: Retail Gap Analysis – Executive Summary 2 2016 2016 City of Chestermere Econ omic Impact of Conrich ASP on the City of Chestermere and Region SUMMARY REPORT SJ Research Services SJ Research Services RW Consulting RW Consulting Consultants Consultants 02/24/2016 31/May//2016 3 DISCLOSURE This report was prepared for the City of Chestermere, Alberta. The disclosure of any information contained in this report is the sole responsibility of the City. The material in this report reflects the consultant’s best judgment in light of the information available to it at the time of preparation. Any use which a third party makes of this report, or any reliance on or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third parties. 4 __________________ ________________ Stephen Johnson Robin Woodward SJ Research Services RW Consulting June 13, 2016 June 13, 2016 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... v Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... vii Background - Scope & Deliverables................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 2 The Conrich ASP Development Area ............................................................................................... 3 Existing Inventory ............................................................................................................................. 5 The City of Calgary .................................................................................................................... 5 City of Chestermere .................................................................................................................... 6 County of Rocky View ............................................................................................................... 8 Comparative Land Use Requirements ........................................................................................ 9 Future Land Demand ...................................................................................................................... 10 Employment Base Viability ............................................................................................................ 15 Multiplier Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 21 Forecast Impact on Chestermere’s Long Term Revenues .............................................................. 22 References ....................................................................................................................................... 24 Appendix 1 – Rocky View County Land Use ................................................................................ 25 Appendix 2 – Chestermere Land Use ............................................................................................. 26 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Delivered in 2015, the Conrich ASP lays out Rocky View County’s (RVC’s) plan for development of approximately 10,876 acres (4,402 hectares) in the ‘central east region’ of RVC. The Plan area is centered on the Hamlet of Conrich and encompasses 68 quarter sections of property (including road allowances). The Conrich ASP is seeking to develop 5,160 acres (2,088ha) of industrial land and an additional 1,419 acres (574ha) of commercial lands. This proposed development will have significant impacts upon regional industrial and commercial property inventories, and will detrimentally impact upon regional growth plans in adjacent communities and the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) as a whole. The Cities of Chestermere and Calgary, as well as current developments within Rocky View County itself, will be impacted. Impact upon Existing Inventory Currently Calgary, Chestermere and Rocky View County have the following industrial/commercial lands available for development. The Conrich ASP will add 45% to this total. Total Industrial / Commercial To be Developed % of Total (acres) (acres) Calgary City 38,103 8,733 44.0 Rocky View County* 20,233 3,594 18.1 - Conrich ASP 6,579 6,149 31.1 Chestermere City 1,768 1,350 6.8 66,683 19,826 100.0 Les Conrich double count*** -430 TOTAL** 66,253 * - Satellite imagery assessment; ** - Does not include other municipal entities within the Calgary CMA *** - Already developed areas in Conrich ASP area counted in the total for Rocky View County. Future Land Demand Incremental (over 2015) industrial and commercial land demand in the Calgary CMA (including Rocky View County) is expected to vary between 1,883.2 and 2,817.7 additional acres until 2025. This is based on the Conference Board of Canada forecast to 2020, two different trend lines to 2025, and land use per employee based on an Alberta CMA of equivalent size. This is vastly exceeded by Conrich ASP which encompasses 68 quarter sections (including road allowances) for a total of 5,160 acres of industrial land and 1,419 acres of commercial land. At an average absorption rate of 188.3 – 281.8 acres/year, current inventories provide 48-72 years’ supply; the Conrich ASP would add an additional 22-32 years’ inventory to the lands in the CMA, creating a 70-100+ year-supply of land. This is expected to have the following impacts: Migrate business from existing industrial/commercial areas in Chestermere, Calgary, RVC and other local municipalities, to Conrich. Extend the time required to complete existing developments. Add to the Chestermere residential tax burden as projected industrial/commercial tax base does not materialize. 7 Prompt wage inflation as the regional jobs base expands significantly. Conrich ASP Employment Base Viability The labour force required to support the Conrich ASP is forecast to be 46,000 employees. The ability to support this growth is negligible within Conrich itself, and will impact on employment across the entire CMA, as follows: The County’s available labour force is 833 today, rising to 2,423 in 2025 (@6.4% UI rate). The labour supply in Rocky View County will not meet expected labour demand stemming from the Conrich ASP. At 46,000 positions, labour demand exceeds the entire labour force (working and seeking work) for the County and matches County population aged 15 and over until past 2035. Labour demand for the Conrich ASP varies between a high of 109% and a low of 48% of the entire Calgary CMA available Labour Force between 2015 and 2045. In order to be staffed at capacity levels, undue upward wage pressures would be the result. Any saving in land costs as a result of a surplus in industrial/commercial land would likely be offset by corresponding upward wage pressures. Conrich Proportional Land Requirements If Conrich was to follow historic and established population growth and industrial land development norms evidenced by Calgary, it is projected that Conrich would require between 9.6 and 35.5 acres (3.8 – 14ha) for industrial development, based upon its current and projected population. Not the 5,160 acres proposed. If assessed based upon current developed (rather than un-developed) lands, similar comparatives can be generated. Today, Calgary has a ratio of 24 acres (9.7ha) of developed land per 1000 population. By comparison, Conrich would require 32 acres (13ha) to meet today’s industrial land requirements, and upwards of 119 acres (48ha) if a 5,000 population was attained. Again, far less than the 5,160 acres proposed. Conrich ASP Impact on Chestermere’s Tax Base: Chestermere has developed a long term growth strategy to provide for its citizens, including the expansion of its tax base away from today’s reliance upon residential revenues to a wider residential/industrial/commercial base. If Chestermere was able to fill its industrial and commercial developments in line with projections, it is expected that the proposed industrial and commercial areas would generate $2.0M and $5.4M, respectively by 2026. When combined with the projected residential tax base linked to new developments, a revenue
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