Evaluation Finnish AFT 2016
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EVALUATION Finnish Aid for Trade 2012-2015 Evaluation on Finland’s Development Policy and Cooperation 2016/2 EVALUATION FINNISH AID FOR TRADE 2012-2015 Frans van Gerwen (Team Leader) Pirkko Poutiainen Karsten Weitzenegger Saul Alanoca Aino Efraimsson 2016/2 This evaluation was commissioned by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland to FCG International Ltd. This report is the product of the authors, and responsibility for the accuracy of the data included in this report rests with the authors. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions presented in this report do not necessarily reflect these views of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. © Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland 2016 This report can be downloaded through the home page of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs http://formin.finland.fi/developmentpolicy/evaluations Contact: [email protected] ISBN 978-952-281-476-0 (pdf) ISSN 2342-8341 Cover design and layout: Innocorp Oy/Milla Toro CONTENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ..........................................................................VIII TIIVISTELMÄ.................................................................................................................1 REFERAT .......................................................................................................................2 ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................3 YHTEENVETO ................................................................................................................4 SAMMANFATTNING ...................................................................................................10 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................16 KEY FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................22 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................27 1.1 Background to the evaluation .....................................................................................................27 1.2 Purpose, objective and scope of the evaluation .......................................................................28 1.3 Structure of the Evaluation Report ............................................................................................29 2 APPROACH, METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS ................................................30 2.1 Evaluation Approach ....................................................................................................................30 2.1.1 Overall evaluation design and approach ........................................................................................30 2.1.2 Theory of change ..........................................................................................................................31 2.1.3 Evaluation questions, criteria and evaluation matrix ......................................................................31 2.2 Methodology and steps in data collection and analysis ...........................................................33 2.3 Risks in evaluation process and their Mitigation .......................................................................36 3 CONTEXT ANALYSIS .............................................................................................38 3.1 Global context ...............................................................................................................................38 3.2 AFT in Finland’s Development Cooperation ...............................................................................42 3.2.1 Policy context .................................................................................................................................42 3.2.2 Aid for Trade Action Plan 2012–2015 .............................................................................................45 3.3 Evaluation of Finnish Aid for Trade in 2011 ................................................................................53 3.4 The AFT country studies seen in the context of overall Finnish ODA and AFT support .........................................................................................58 4 SYNTHESIS OF FINDINGS FROM FIELD STUDIES ..................................................65 4.1 Tanzania .........................................................................................................................................65 4.2 Zambia ...........................................................................................................................................70 4.3 Vietnam ..........................................................................................................................................77 4.4 Effects of AFT on employment and trends in economic growth and trade in country studies .........................................................................84 4.4.1 Number of jobs created by the AFT action plan .............................................................................84 4.4.2 Developments in poverty, economic growth and trade indicators in country studies ...................86 4.5 Multilateral and International AFT projects ...............................................................................88 4.6 Comparison with Private Sector Instruments of Denmark and the Netherlands ................................................................................................90 5 SYNTHESIS OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS FROM FINNFUND AND FINNPARTNERSHIP CASE STUDIES ............................................94 5.1 Finnfund .........................................................................................................................................94 5.2 Finnpartnership .............................................................................................................................98 6 SYNTHESIS OF OVERALL EVALUATION FINDINGS ............................................103 6.1 Relevance .....................................................................................................................................103 6.2 Effectiveness................................................................................................................................105 6.3 Efficiency ......................................................................................................................................107 6.4 Impact ..........................................................................................................................................109 6.5 Sustainability ...............................................................................................................................110 6.6 Complementarity, Coordination and Coherence ......................................................................111 6.7 Crosscutting objectives and human-rights based approach ..................................................113 6.8 Result Based Management ........................................................................................................115 7 CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................119 7.1 Main Conclusions ........................................................................................................................119 7.2 Specific conclusions.....................................................................................................................121 8 RECOMMENDATIONS .........................................................................................124 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................129 EVALUATION TEAM ..................................................................................................131 Annex 1 Terms of Reference for the Evaluation ..............................................133 Annex 2 People Interviewed during evaluation process .................................140 Annex 3 Documents consulted ...........................................................................158 Annex 4 Case Study Report Finnfund ................................................................175 Annex 5 Case Study Report Finnpartnership ....................................................202 Annex 6 Comparative Study on Danish and Dutch Private Sector Development Appoaches and Instruments .......................................240 FIGURES Figure 1 Development of AFT disbursements 2006-2013 and effects on growth rates ......................38 Figure 2 Aggregate results from 111 aid-for-trade case stories ..........................................................42 Figure 3 Development AFT Expenditures 2006-2014 ............................................................................43 Figure 4 Finnish Aid for Trade 2012-2014 .............................................................................................44 Figure 5 Reconstructed Theory of Change model Finland’s AFT Action Plan 2012–2015 ....................46 Figure 6 Distribution of Finnish AFT among main aid modalities 2012-2014 .......................................50 Figure 7 Finnish ODA disbursements to long-term partner countries 2012-2014 ...............................58 Figure 8 Geographic spread Finnish AFT portfolio (2012-2015) ...........................................................59