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OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Climate Change Chapter OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 Climate Change Chapter PRE-RELEASE VERSION www.oecd.org/environment/outlookto2050 November 2011 OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2050 CHAPTER 3: CLIMATE CHANGE PRE-RELEASE VERSION, NOVEMBER 2011 The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 was prepared by a joint team from the OECD Environment Directorate (ENV) and the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). Authors: Virginie Marchal, Rob Dellink (ENV) Detlef van Vuuren (PBL) Christa Clapp, Jean Château, Eliza Lanzi, Bertrand Magné (ENV) Jasper van Vliet (PBL) Contacts: Virginie Marchal ([email protected]) Rob Dellink ([email protected]) 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Key messages ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Trends and projections ............................................................................................................................. 5 Policy steps to build a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy ................................................................ 6 3.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2. Trends and projections ...................................................................................................................... 9 Greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations ......................................................................................... 9 Impacts of climate change ...................................................................................................................... 17 3.3. Climate Change: The state of policy today ..................................................................................... 23 The international challenge: Overcoming inertia ................................................................................... 23 National action to mitigate climate change ............................................................................................ 24 National action to adapt to climate change............................................................................................. 38 Getting the policy mix right: Interactions between adaptation and mitigation ...................................... 42 3.4. Policy steps for tomorrow: Building a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy .............................. 43 What if …? Three scenarios for stabilising emissions at 450 ppm ........................................................ 43 Less stringent climate mitigation (550 ppm) scenarios .......................................................................... 62 Actions needed for an ambitious, global climate policy framework ...................................................... 63 Finding synergies among climate change strategies and other goals ..................................................... 66 NOTES .......................................................................................................................................................... 71 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................................. 75 ANNEX 3.A1: MODELLING BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ................. 83 The Baseline scenario ................................................................................................................................ 83 The 450 ppm climate stabilisation scenarios ............................................................................................. 84 Alternative permit allocation schemes ................................................................................................... 84 Technology options in the 450 ppm scenario ......................................................................................... 85 Cancún Agreements/Copenhagen Accord pledges ................................................................................ 86 Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies ............................................................................................................. 88 ANNEX NOTES ........................................................................................................................................... 89 Tables Table 3.1. Examples of policy tools for climate change mitigation ....................................................... 25 Table 3.2. National climate change legislation: Coverage and scope, selected countries ...................... 27 Table 3.3. Status of emission trading schemes ....................................................................................... 29 Table 3.4. Adaptation options and potential policy instruments ............................................................ 39 Table 3.5. Overview of the Environmental Outlook mitigation scenarios ............................................. 44 Table 3.6. How targets and actions pledged under the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements are interpreted as emission changes under the 450 Delayed Action scenario: 2020 compared to 1990 .... 57 Table.3.7 How different factors will affect emissions and real income from the Cancún Agreements/Copenhagen Accord pledges: 450 Delayed Action scenario) ................................................ 59 2 Table.3.8. Competitiveness impacts of the 450 Delayed Action scenario, 2020 and 2050: % change from Baseline ............................................................................................................................................. 61 Table 3.9. Income impacts of a fossil fuel subsidy reform with and without the 450 Core scenario, 2020 and 2050: % real income deviation from the Baseline ..................................................................... 66 Table 3.10. Economic impact of an OECD-wide emissions trading scheme where labour markets are rigid, assuming lump-sum redistribution, 2015-2030: % deviation from the business-as-usual scenario . 70 Table 3.11. Economic impact of an OECD-wide ETS for different recycling options, assuming medium labour market rigidity, 2015-2030 ............................................................................................... 70 Figures Figure 3.1. GHG emissions: Baseline, 1970-2005 ............................................................................... 10 Figure 3.2.. Decoupling trends: CO2 emissions versus GDP in the OECD and BRIICS, 1990-2010 .. 11 Figure 3.3. Energy related CO2 emission per capita, OECD/ BRIICS, 2000 and 2008 ....................... 12 Figure 3.4. Change in production-based and demand-based CO2 emissions: 1995-2005 ................... 13 Figure 3.5. GHG emissions to 2050; Baseline, 2010-2050.................................................................. 14 Figure 3.6. GHG emissions per capita: Baseline, 2010-2050 .............................................................. 14 Figure 3.7. Global CO2 emissions by source: Baseline, 1980-2050 ..................................................... 15 Figure 3.8. CO2 emissions from land use: Baseline, 1990-2050 .......................................................... 16 Figure 3.9. Long-run CO2-concentrations and temperature increase; Baseline1970-2100 .................. 17 Figure 3.10. Change in annual temperature: Baseline and 450oppm scenarios, 1990-2050 .................. 18 Figure 3.11. Change in annual precipitation: Baseline, 1990-2050 ....................................................... 19 Figure 3.12. Key impacts of increasing global temperature .................................................................. 20 Figure 3.13. Assets exposed to sea-level rise in coastal cities by 2070 ................................................. 22 Figure 3.14 Government RD&D expenditures in energy in IEA member countries: 1974-2009......... 34 Figure 3.15. New plant entry by type of renewable energy in North America, Pacific and EU-15 regions, 1978-2008 .................................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 3.16. Alternative emission pathways, 2010-2100 ....................................................................... 45 Figure 3.17. Concentration pathways for the four Outlook scenarios including all climate forcers, 2010-2100 47 Figure 3.18. 450oCore Scenario: emissions and cost of mitigation, 2010-2050 .................................... 48 Figure 3.19. Impact of permit allocation schemes on emission allowances and real income in 2050 ... 51 Figure 3.20. GHG abatements in the 450 Core Accelarated Action and 450 Core scenarios compared to the Baseline, 2020 and 2030 .................................................................................................................. 53 Figure 3.21. Technology choices for the 450 Accelerated Action scenario ........................................... 55 Figure.3.22. Regional real income impacts: 450 Core versus 450 Delayed Action scenarios ............... 58 Figure.3.23. Change in global GHG emissions in 2050 compared to 2010: 450 Delayed Action and 550oppm scenarios ..................................................................................................................................... 62 Figure 3.24. Change in real income from the Baseline for the 450 Delayed Action and 550 Core scenarios, 2050 63 Figure 3.25. Income impact of fragmented emission trading schemes for reaching concentrations of 550oppm compared
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