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1. How Different Is the T Distribution from the Normal?
Statistics 101–106 Lecture 7 (20 October 98) c David Pollard Page 1 Read M&M §7.1 and §7.2, ignoring starred parts. Reread M&M §3.2. The eects of estimated variances on normal approximations. t-distributions. Comparison of two means: pooling of estimates of variances, or paired observations. In Lecture 6, when discussing comparison of two Binomial proportions, I was content to estimate unknown variances when calculating statistics that were to be treated as approximately normally distributed. You might have worried about the effect of variability of the estimate. W. S. Gosset (“Student”) considered a similar problem in a very famous 1908 paper, where the role of Student’s t-distribution was first recognized. Gosset discovered that the effect of estimated variances could be described exactly in a simplified problem where n independent observations X1,...,Xn are taken from (, ) = ( + ...+ )/ a normal√ distribution, N . The sample mean, X X1 Xn n has a N(, / n) distribution. The random variable X Z = √ / n 2 2 Phas a standard normal distribution. If we estimate by the sample variance, s = ( )2/( ) i Xi X n 1 , then the resulting statistic, X T = √ s/ n no longer has a normal distribution. It has a t-distribution on n 1 degrees of freedom. Remark. I have written T , instead of the t used by M&M page 505. I find it causes confusion that t refers to both the name of the statistic and the name of its distribution. As you will soon see, the estimation of the variance has the effect of spreading out the distribution a little beyond what it would be if were used. -
5. the Student T Distribution
Virtual Laboratories > 4. Special Distributions > 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 5. The Student t Distribution In this section we will study a distribution that has special importance in statistics. In particular, this distribution will arise in the study of a standardized version of the sample mean when the underlying distribution is normal. The Probability Density Function Suppose that Z has the standard normal distribution, V has the chi-squared distribution with n degrees of freedom, and that Z and V are independent. Let Z T= √V/n In the following exercise, you will show that T has probability density function given by −(n +1) /2 Γ((n + 1) / 2) t2 f(t)= 1 + , t∈ℝ ( n ) √n π Γ(n / 2) 1. Show that T has the given probability density function by using the following steps. n a. Show first that the conditional distribution of T given V=v is normal with mean 0 a nd variance v . b. Use (a) to find the joint probability density function of (T,V). c. Integrate the joint probability density function in (b) with respect to v to find the probability density function of T. The distribution of T is known as the Student t distribution with n degree of freedom. The distribution is well defined for any n > 0, but in practice, only positive integer values of n are of interest. This distribution was first studied by William Gosset, who published under the pseudonym Student. In addition to supplying the proof, Exercise 1 provides a good way of thinking of the t distribution: the t distribution arises when the variance of a mean 0 normal distribution is randomized in a certain way. -
1 One Parameter Exponential Families
1 One parameter exponential families The world of exponential families bridges the gap between the Gaussian family and general dis- tributions. Many properties of Gaussians carry through to exponential families in a fairly precise sense. • In the Gaussian world, there exact small sample distributional results (i.e. t, F , χ2). • In the exponential family world, there are approximate distributional results (i.e. deviance tests). • In the general setting, we can only appeal to asymptotics. A one-parameter exponential family, F is a one-parameter family of distributions of the form Pη(dx) = exp (η · t(x) − Λ(η)) P0(dx) for some probability measure P0. The parameter η is called the natural or canonical parameter and the function Λ is called the cumulant generating function, and is simply the normalization needed to make dPη fη(x) = (x) = exp (η · t(x) − Λ(η)) dP0 a proper probability density. The random variable t(X) is the sufficient statistic of the exponential family. Note that P0 does not have to be a distribution on R, but these are of course the simplest examples. 1.0.1 A first example: Gaussian with linear sufficient statistic Consider the standard normal distribution Z e−z2=2 P0(A) = p dz A 2π and let t(x) = x. Then, the exponential family is eη·x−x2=2 Pη(dx) / p 2π and we see that Λ(η) = η2=2: eta= np.linspace(-2,2,101) CGF= eta**2/2. plt.plot(eta, CGF) A= plt.gca() A.set_xlabel(r'$\eta$', size=20) A.set_ylabel(r'$\Lambda(\eta)$', size=20) f= plt.gcf() 1 Thus, the exponential family in this setting is the collection F = fN(η; 1) : η 2 Rg : d 1.0.2 Normal with quadratic sufficient statistic on R d As a second example, take P0 = N(0;Id×d), i.e. -
Chapter 8 Fundamental Sampling Distributions And
CHAPTER 8 FUNDAMENTAL SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS AND DATA DESCRIPTIONS 8.1 Random Sampling pling procedure, it is desirable to choose a random sample in the sense that the observations are made The basic idea of the statistical inference is that we independently and at random. are allowed to draw inferences or conclusions about a Random Sample population based on the statistics computed from the sample data so that we could infer something about Let X1;X2;:::;Xn be n independent random variables, the parameters and obtain more information about the each having the same probability distribution f (x). population. Thus we must make sure that the samples Define X1;X2;:::;Xn to be a random sample of size must be good representatives of the population and n from the population f (x) and write its joint proba- pay attention on the sampling bias and variability to bility distribution as ensure the validity of statistical inference. f (x1;x2;:::;xn) = f (x1) f (x2) f (xn): ··· 8.2 Some Important Statistics It is important to measure the center and the variabil- ity of the population. For the purpose of the inference, we study the following measures regarding to the cen- ter and the variability. 8.2.1 Location Measures of a Sample The most commonly used statistics for measuring the center of a set of data, arranged in order of mag- nitude, are the sample mean, sample median, and sample mode. Let X1;X2;:::;Xn represent n random variables. Sample Mean To calculate the average, or mean, add all values, then Bias divide by the number of individuals. -
Chapter 4: Central Tendency and Dispersion
Central Tendency and Dispersion 4 In this chapter, you can learn • how the values of the cases on a single variable can be summarized using measures of central tendency and measures of dispersion; • how the central tendency can be described using statistics such as the mode, median, and mean; • how the dispersion of scores on a variable can be described using statistics such as a percent distribution, minimum, maximum, range, and standard deviation along with a few others; and • how a variable’s level of measurement determines what measures of central tendency and dispersion to use. Schooling, Politics, and Life After Death Once again, we will use some questions about 1980 GSS young adults as opportunities to explain and demonstrate the statistics introduced in the chapter: • Among the 1980 GSS young adults, are there both believers and nonbelievers in a life after death? Which is the more common view? • On a seven-attribute political party allegiance variable anchored at one end by “strong Democrat” and at the other by “strong Republican,” what was the most Democratic attribute used by any of the 1980 GSS young adults? The most Republican attribute? If we put all 1980 95 96 PART II :: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS GSS young adults in order from the strongest Democrat to the strongest Republican, what is the political party affiliation of the person in the middle? • What was the average number of years of schooling completed at the time of the survey by 1980 GSS young adults? Were most of these twentysomethings pretty close to the average on -
Chapter 5 Sections
Chapter 5 Chapter 5 sections Discrete univariate distributions: 5.2 Bernoulli and Binomial distributions Just skim 5.3 Hypergeometric distributions 5.4 Poisson distributions Just skim 5.5 Negative Binomial distributions Continuous univariate distributions: 5.6 Normal distributions 5.7 Gamma distributions Just skim 5.8 Beta distributions Multivariate distributions Just skim 5.9 Multinomial distributions 5.10 Bivariate normal distributions 1 / 43 Chapter 5 5.1 Introduction Families of distributions How: Parameter and Parameter space pf /pdf and cdf - new notation: f (xj parameters ) Mean, variance and the m.g.f. (t) Features, connections to other distributions, approximation Reasoning behind a distribution Why: Natural justification for certain experiments A model for the uncertainty in an experiment All models are wrong, but some are useful – George Box 2 / 43 Chapter 5 5.2 Bernoulli and Binomial distributions Bernoulli distributions Def: Bernoulli distributions – Bernoulli(p) A r.v. X has the Bernoulli distribution with parameter p if P(X = 1) = p and P(X = 0) = 1 − p. The pf of X is px (1 − p)1−x for x = 0; 1 f (xjp) = 0 otherwise Parameter space: p 2 [0; 1] In an experiment with only two possible outcomes, “success” and “failure”, let X = number successes. Then X ∼ Bernoulli(p) where p is the probability of success. E(X) = p, Var(X) = p(1 − p) and (t) = E(etX ) = pet + (1 − p) 8 < 0 for x < 0 The cdf is F(xjp) = 1 − p for 0 ≤ x < 1 : 1 for x ≥ 1 3 / 43 Chapter 5 5.2 Bernoulli and Binomial distributions Binomial distributions Def: Binomial distributions – Binomial(n; p) A r.v. -
Basic Econometrics / Statistics Statistical Distributions: Normal, T, Chi-Sq, & F
Basic Econometrics / Statistics Statistical Distributions: Normal, T, Chi-Sq, & F Course : Basic Econometrics : HC43 / Statistics B.A. Hons Economics, Semester IV/ Semester III Delhi University Course Instructor: Siddharth Rathore Assistant Professor Economics Department, Gargi College Siddharth Rathore guj75845_appC.qxd 4/16/09 12:41 PM Page 461 APPENDIX C SOME IMPORTANT PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS In Appendix B we noted that a random variable (r.v.) can be described by a few characteristics, or moments, of its probability function (PDF or PMF), such as the expected value and variance. This, however, presumes that we know the PDF of that r.v., which is a tall order since there are all kinds of random variables. In practice, however, some random variables occur so frequently that statisticians have determined their PDFs and documented their properties. For our purpose, we will consider only those PDFs that are of direct interest to us. But keep in mind that there are several other PDFs that statisticians have studied which can be found in any standard statistics textbook. In this appendix we will discuss the following four probability distributions: 1. The normal distribution 2. The t distribution 3. The chi-square (2 ) distribution 4. The F distribution These probability distributions are important in their own right, but for our purposes they are especially important because they help us to find out the probability distributions of estimators (or statistics), such as the sample mean and sample variance. Recall that estimators are random variables. Equipped with that knowledge, we will be able to draw inferences about their true population values. -
Notes Mean, Median, Mode & Range
Notes Mean, Median, Mode & Range How Do You Use Mode, Median, Mean, and Range to Describe Data? There are many ways to describe the characteristics of a set of data. The mode, median, and mean are all called measures of central tendency. These measures of central tendency and range are described in the table below. The mode of a set of data Use the mode to show which describes which value occurs value in a set of data occurs most frequently. If two or more most often. For the set numbers occur the same number {1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10}, of times and occur more often the mode is 1 because it occurs Mode than all the other numbers in the most frequently. set, those numbers are all modes for the data set. If each number in the set occurs the same number of times, the set of data has no mode. The median of a set of data Use the median to show which describes what value is in the number in a set of data is in the middle if the set is ordered from middle when the numbers are greatest to least or from least to listed in order. greatest. If there are an even For the set {1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10}, number of values, the median is the median is 3 because it is in the average of the two middle the middle when the numbers are Median values. Half of the values are listed in order. greater than the median, and half of the values are less than the median. -
The Normal Moment Generating Function
MSc. Econ: MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS, 1996 The Moment Generating Function of the Normal Distribution Recall that the probability density function of a normally distributed random variable x with a mean of E(x)=and a variance of V (x)=2 is 2 1 1 (x)2/2 (1) N(x; , )=p e 2 . (22) Our object is to nd the moment generating function which corresponds to this distribution. To begin, let us consider the case where = 0 and 2 =1. Then we have a standard normal, denoted by N(z;0,1), and the corresponding moment generating function is dened by Z zt zt 1 1 z2 Mz(t)=E(e )= e √ e 2 dz (2) 2 1 t2 = e 2 . To demonstate this result, the exponential terms may be gathered and rear- ranged to give exp zt exp 1 z2 = exp 1 z2 + zt (3) 2 2 1 2 1 2 = exp 2 (z t) exp 2 t . Then Z 1t2 1 1(zt)2 Mz(t)=e2 √ e 2 dz (4) 2 1 t2 = e 2 , where the nal equality follows from the fact that the expression under the integral is the N(z; = t, 2 = 1) probability density function which integrates to unity. Now consider the moment generating function of the Normal N(x; , 2) distribution when and 2 have arbitrary values. This is given by Z xt xt 1 1 (x)2/2 (5) Mx(t)=E(e )= e p e 2 dx (22) Dene x (6) z = , which implies x = z + . 1 MSc. Econ: MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS: BRIEF NOTES, 1996 Then, using the change-of-variable technique, we get Z 1 1 2 dx t zt p 2 z Mx(t)=e e e dz 2 dz Z (2 ) (7) t zt 1 1 z2 = e e √ e 2 dz 2 t 1 2t2 = e e 2 , Here, to establish the rst equality, we have used dx/dz = . -
A Family of Skew-Normal Distributions for Modeling Proportions and Rates with Zeros/Ones Excess
S S symmetry Article A Family of Skew-Normal Distributions for Modeling Proportions and Rates with Zeros/Ones Excess Guillermo Martínez-Flórez 1, Víctor Leiva 2,* , Emilio Gómez-Déniz 3 and Carolina Marchant 4 1 Departamento de Matemáticas y Estadística, Facultad de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad de Córdoba, Montería 14014, Colombia; [email protected] 2 Escuela de Ingeniería Industrial, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, 2362807 Valparaíso, Chile 3 Facultad de Economía, Empresa y Turismo, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and TIDES Institute, 35001 Canarias, Spain; [email protected] 4 Facultad de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Católica del Maule, 3466706 Talca, Chile; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected] Received: 30 June 2020; Accepted: 19 August 2020; Published: 1 September 2020 Abstract: In this paper, we consider skew-normal distributions for constructing new a distribution which allows us to model proportions and rates with zero/one inflation as an alternative to the inflated beta distributions. The new distribution is a mixture between a Bernoulli distribution for explaining the zero/one excess and a censored skew-normal distribution for the continuous variable. The maximum likelihood method is used for parameter estimation. Observed and expected Fisher information matrices are derived to conduct likelihood-based inference in this new type skew-normal distribution. Given the flexibility of the new distributions, we are able to show, in real data scenarios, the good performance of our proposal. Keywords: beta distribution; centered skew-normal distribution; maximum-likelihood methods; Monte Carlo simulations; proportions; R software; rates; zero/one inflated data 1. -
Lecture 2 — September 24 2.1 Recap 2.2 Exponential Families
STATS 300A: Theory of Statistics Fall 2015 Lecture 2 | September 24 Lecturer: Lester Mackey Scribe: Stephen Bates and Andy Tsao 2.1 Recap Last time, we set out on a quest to develop optimal inference procedures and, along the way, encountered an important pair of assertions: not all data is relevant, and irrelevant data can only increase risk and hence impair performance. This led us to introduce a notion of lossless data compression (sufficiency): T is sufficient for P with X ∼ Pθ 2 P if X j T (X) is independent of θ. How far can we take this idea? At what point does compression impair performance? These are questions of optimal data reduction. While we will develop general answers to these questions in this lecture and the next, we can often say much more in the context of specific modeling choices. With this in mind, let's consider an especially important class of models known as the exponential family models. 2.2 Exponential Families Definition 1. The model fPθ : θ 2 Ωg forms an s-dimensional exponential family if each Pθ has density of the form: s ! X p(x; θ) = exp ηi(θ)Ti(x) − B(θ) h(x) i=1 • ηi(θ) 2 R are called the natural parameters. • Ti(x) 2 R are its sufficient statistics, which follows from NFFC. • B(θ) is the log-partition function because it is the logarithm of a normalization factor: s ! ! Z X B(θ) = log exp ηi(θ)Ti(x) h(x)dµ(x) 2 R i=1 • h(x) 2 R: base measure. -
Volatility Modeling Using the Student's T Distribution
Volatility Modeling Using the Student’s t Distribution Maria S. Heracleous Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Aris Spanos, Chair Richard Ashley Raman Kumar Anya McGuirk Dennis Yang August 29, 2003 Blacksburg, Virginia Keywords: Student’s t Distribution, Multivariate GARCH, VAR, Exchange Rates Copyright 2003, Maria S. Heracleous Volatility Modeling Using the Student’s t Distribution Maria S. Heracleous (ABSTRACT) Over the last twenty years or so the Dynamic Volatility literature has produced a wealth of uni- variateandmultivariateGARCHtypemodels.Whiletheunivariatemodelshavebeenrelatively successful in empirical studies, they suffer from a number of weaknesses, such as unverifiable param- eter restrictions, existence of moment conditions and the retention of Normality. These problems are naturally more acute in the multivariate GARCH type models, which in addition have the problem of overparameterization. This dissertation uses the Student’s t distribution and follows the Probabilistic Reduction (PR) methodology to modify and extend the univariate and multivariate volatility models viewed as alternative to the GARCH models. Its most important advantage is that it gives rise to internally consistent statistical models that do not require ad hoc parameter restrictions unlike the GARCH formulations. Chapters 1 and 2 provide an overview of my dissertation and recent developments in the volatil- ity literature. In Chapter 3 we provide an empirical illustration of the PR approach for modeling univariate volatility. Estimation results suggest that the Student’s t AR model is a parsimonious and statistically adequate representation of exchange rate returns and Dow Jones returns data.