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Risk Radar & Risk Shifts Risk Radar & Risk Shifts ISSUE 02 2019 BILLIONAIRE BACKLASH & KASHMIR CONFLICT & AI’S VULNERABLE WORLD Oxfam Executive Director Winnie Byanyima Executive Director Oxfam RISK RADAR & RISK SHIFTS RISK RADAR / 02 19 03 year in a row, but only for poorer people as they are more likely to be overweight, smoke, and drink than their wealthier counterparts. While last summer U. S. president Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers concluded that the country’s war on poverty “is largely over and a success”, that feeling is not shared by those who are experiencing financial insecurity, struggling to pay for costs of living, healthcare, quality housing and good food. The precarious circumstances of the current young generation has led to the rise of Millennial socialism. This is remarkable in the U.S., traditionally a profoundly anti-socialist country. Especially the young generation is burdened with the financial insecurity resulting from the Global Financial Crisis, In the U.S., the wealth gap between generations is growing, younger generations are weighed down by student debt and stagnant wages. This feeds the feeling that that economic growth has mainly benefited the rich and that the global elite cur- Homeless in the U.S. rently in power is not taking accountability for the growing inequality. Politicians like Bernie Sanders and Al- Viktor Orbán - Source: Flickr exandria Ocasio-Cortez respond to this feeling saying that a system that allows billionaires to exist while some people don’t have access to public health is wrong. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has called for a 70% marginal tax rate on people who earn over $10 million a year. In addition, in the run-up to the 2020 elections, democrats are distancing themselves from the heavily funded former progressive candidate Hillary Clinton and from the self-funding billionaires (like Michael R. Bloomberg) who are considering a run for the Democratic presiden- tial nomination. Moreover, similar to Labour in the U.K., they promise young Americans free college tuition in times of the student loan debt crisis. 1. Billionaire backlash In the future, technology may further drive inequality. At the WEF, panelists from the political and techno- logical domain all agreed that 4IR technologies such as AI could further exacerbate inequalities and that such Last month, the debate about world’s growing inequality intensified. Just before the Annual meeting of technology could better be harnessed to ensure welfare reached those who needed it. The rise of AI puts at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Oxfam published a report showing that world’s 26 richest risk the current jobs of low-skilled, uneducated workers, while creating prosperous new industries that don’t individuals own the same wealth as the poorest half, while in 2017 that number was ‘still’ 43. In 2018, the employ very many workers. Because the largest companies in the world by market value in 2018 are now tech wealth of the world’s billionaires increased by 12%, while the poorest half of humanity saw their wealth giants, Californian governor Gavin Newsom has proposed a “digital dividend” that would let consumers share shrink by 11%. At the WEF, critics like Dutch historian Rutger Bregman, Oxfam executive director Winnie in the billions of dollars made by technology companies in the most populous U.S. state. Byanyima and ‘Winners Take All’ author Anand Giridharadas pointed to the participants’ responsibility for As measures to elevate those living in poverty or precarious conditions are not going to improve lives in the exacerbating inequality. Giridharadas has argued that many billionaires approach philanthropy as a kind near future, the debate on inequality will intensify. The effects of living in such conditions become more vis- of branding exercise maintaining the current system. Instead of talking about philanthropy, billionaires in ible; this will further feed the awareness that a large part of society is not experiencing progress. As a result, Davos should be talking about taxes, Bregman concluded. Especially Bregman’s remarks on taxes stirred dissatisfaction with the wealthy elites who are in power will grow, something already embodied by the Yellow up debate. In February, billionaire Bill Gates tweeted a chart showing how humanity had made progress in Vests movement. Anti-billionaires populism might rise and the growing popularity of socialist ideas, even in a terms of reducing poverty over the last two centuries. The tweet sparked an intense online debate about liberal minded country like the U.S., could point to a future where the redistribution and wealth social safety global poverty. Jason Hickel responded in The Guardian that the $1.90-a-day line is be too low and that nets will be introduced. The question of how further technological advancements will either divide or serve the number of people able to afford basic necessities on a daily basis had actually decreased. As empha- entire societies remains the big unknown. sized in a Bloomberg article, the question about what the world’s richest should do about the growing inequality has remained unanswered for over a decade now, with a possible social backlash against the Possible implications: rich becoming more likely. • Growing unease with excessive wealth, polarization between different classes in Western societies In wealthy countries, life is precarious for a growing number of people. The problem of growing inequality • Social movements and unrest, backlash against global elites in the shape of national Yellow Vests like in these countries is not so much the fact that a small group of individuals get wealthier, but rather that movements the most vulnerable are still struggling to obtain basic necessities. The effects of this struggle are becom- • Stricter tax policies, measures against tax-havens ing ever more visible. In the U.K., for instance, almost 20% of children under 15 live in a home where the RISKS MARKED ON THE RISK RADAR AS NUMBER 1: RISING INEQUALITY parents cannot afford to put food on the table. And in the U.S., life expectancy has dropped for the third RISK RADAR & RISK SHIFTS RISK RADAR / 02 19 05 2. Kashmir conflict Although the Kashmir region knows a long history of turmoil between Pakistan and India following the partition of British India in 1947, the conflict has intensified over the course of the last months. After 40 Indian military personnel were killed after a bomb attack in Kashmir, India sought retaliation for terrorist activity in the region and crossed the line for the first time since the 1971 war. India carried out a so-called pre-emptive strike against one of the largest terrorist training camps in Pakistan and claimed that 300 people died in the attack. However, the Pakistan government claims the attacks had not affected anyone and Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan stated that “Pakistan shall respond at the time and place of its choosing”. The bold rhetoric and the fact that both India and Pakistan ratcheted up involvement in the conflict is due to compelling domestic reasons. While for Khan, the revived conflict is a first test in foreign policy, the conflict is of relevance to Prime Minister Modi as he is preparing for elections in May and the conflict is a chance to project himself as a strong leader. Modi sent out the Kashmir Mountains message that India is safe in his hands, boosting his muscular image in the electoral strategy of Hindu nationalism in order to climb in the polls. This is very much needed, since his party already lost three regional elections, and since the nation struggles with Kashmir, is an intense one since the control of water has long been central to many visions of stagnating job growth and agricultural crisis in the country. nationhood in India and continues to be so under Modi. Although a conflict over water is too Next to new escalation in the conflict between the archrivals and nuclear powers, risky for both parties, if the tensions in the region and the slide towards unilateralism continues, the region is subject to great power play. Tibet is among the bordering countries of local people on both sides of the border will be carrying the real costs. However, Pakistan is a the disputed region. Pakistan has collaborated with China extensively on the China– water-stressed nation and thus this is the weak spot India can hit its rival. It is in this light, that Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While Pakistan sees China as a counterweight to India’s recent move to fund the building of a dam near Kabul could be seen as a way to reduce India, Pakistan has served as a channel for China’s influence in the Muslim world to water flow to Pakistan. China. And thus, although China is calling for de-escalation of the conflict, it defends Although the developments in Kashmir are fast-moving and the underlying reasons span wider Pakistan against India. For instance, China continues to protect Masood Azhar, the than regional ones, the conflict is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. However, chances are leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammed group believed responsible for the Kashmir attack small that it will escalate into a war again. The superpowers active in the region have their own killing 40 Indians. Moreover, the U.S. is another superpower keeping a close eye on interests in keeping the region stable. The U.S. has a strong interest in trying to prevent the use the unfolding conflict in the region, as it has been clashing with China over Belt And of nuclear weapons, India is its major defense partner and Pakistan has been a longtime partner. Road Initiative projects in Pakistan. Pakistan is replacing the U.S.
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