Future Possibilities Present Actions Partnerships for a greener Denmark in 2050 About the process and results of the DK2050 project The partnership behind DK2050 DK2050 scenario project supported by The biennale exhibition in Venice 2014 supported by Participating Municipalities Analysis partners Commissioner Copenhagen Kent Martinussen, CEO, the Danish Architecture Centre Aarhus Aalborg Curator Odense Stig L. Andersson, professor, landscape architect as well as Ringkøbing-Skjern creative director and founder of architect firm SLA Sønderborg Architects Fredericia Middelfart Kalundborg Co-curator of ”Sustainable Høje-Taastrup Danish cities and city regions Thanks to towards 2050k” OSRAM, SpektraLED, New Mat, alluVial International, Regions Egen Vinding & Datter, Bark House, Sibelco Denmark, Knowledge panel The Capital Region Niels Bohr Arkivet, Museum Jorn, Mariebjerg Kirkegaard, of Denmark, Prof. Katherine Richardson Copenhagen University Den Hirschsprungske Samling, Thorvaldsens Museum, KØS, the Region of Prof. Mark Lorenzen Copenhagen Business School Carsten Hoff, iGuzzini, Lokalhistorisk Arkiv i Gentofte, Southern Denmark, Prof. Brian Vad Mathiesen Aalborg University G.N. Brandts Haves Venner. North Denmark Region Prof. Gertrud Jørgensen Copenhagen University The catalogue is supported by Project developer NATIONALBANKENS JUBILÆUMSFOND Developed by the Danish Architecture Centre Coordinator in Venice 1 / 06 Arkitekt Troels Bruun, M+B Studio DK2050-SCENARIE-WORKSHOP MED TREDJE NATUR Den innovative landskabstegnestue Tredje Natur fra København, debatterer DK2050- scenariet Guerilla Green i billeder og i ord. Kom og vær med til at tegne og diskutere rammerne for et fremtidigt Danmark domineret af individuelle værdier og livsstile. Deltagere: • Ole Schrøder, partner, Tredje Natur. • Flemming Rafn Thomsen, partner, Tredje Natur. KAN DET BÆRE? BYGGEWORKSHOP Bæredygtige konstruktioner og byggerier for børn og barnlige sjæle – åbent for alle. Hvor højt, hvor langt og hvor stærkt kan man bygge? Og hvad skal man tænke over, når man skal bygge noget, som ikke kun er flot, højt eller langt, men som også skal kunne bære? Og hvad sker der, når man skal bygge det med materialer som fx ståltråd, spaghetti, sugerør og tape? Vær med i konkurrencen om at lave den mest bæredygtige konstruktion. Undervejs Developed by kan I få råd fra en arkitekt og en ingeniør, som The Danish Architecture Centre vil give jer tips og tricks til at bygge både flot og godt. Dagens værkstedførere er arkitekt Part of the DK2050 project maa Julie Dufour Wiese og ingeniør Thomas Learn more about the project: Dac.dk/dk2050 Jensen Follow the project on Twitter: @DK2050_DAC and #DK2050 Arrangør: Dansk Arkitektur Center, IDA ISBN 978-87-90668-63-1 Arkitektforeningen og FRI. 2nd edition In order to use this material, you must credit: The Danish Architecture Centre DK2050, as well as the photographer when using pictures, architectural firms when using illustrations and DAMVAD/Kairos Future when using graphics. 117 Content WELCOME TO 2050 . 2 LOCAL DEBATE . 40. What will Denmark look like in 2050? . 2 The scenarios of local debate . 40. WHEN SCENARIOS MEET DEBATE IN VENICE . .44 . REALITY. 4 . An international perspective on DK2050 . 44 . PREFACE . 6 THE PEOPLE MEETING . 46. Green transition being debated at the ABOUT THE REPORT . 9 People Meeting . .46 . SHARED VISION OF GOALS . 10 FUTURE POSSIBILITIES – The goal of DK2050 . 11 . PRESENT ACTIONS . 59 Who needs DK2050? . 11 A new beginning . 59 . Two roads open up possibilities . 11 We want to invest in fishing rods . 60 . Be prepared for multiple futures . 62 WE STAND TOGETHER . 13. Launching the new map of Denmark . 64 . The participants of the biennale exhibition. 13. Power planning towards 2050 . 65. The participants in the development Ændringer i bymønstret frem mod 2050 . 68 of scenarios. .13 . There is no umbilical cord . 73 THE ARCHITECTURE Action now . 75 BIENNALE. 17 . Simon Giles: Global challenges for cities A sterling picture of the future . 17 towards 2050 . 84. With toes deep in the sand. 19. STRATEGIC DILEMMAS AND Opening speech by the Danish minister of culture CHALLENGES TOWARDS 2050 . 95 Marianne Jelved . 20 . Energy and climate . 96 DEVELOPMENT OF SCENARIOS FOR Environment . 97 DENMARK IN THE YEAR 2050. .23 Business and economy . .97 . The four scenarios . 25. Transport and mobility . 98 Green, greener, greenest . 28 . Citizen and society . 98. Scenarios developed across Denmark . 30. FOUR PERSPECTIVES ON CAMP 0 . 32 DK2050 . .101 . Martin Damm . 101 . Trends identified . 32 . Katherine Richardson. .104 . CAMP 1 . 34. Peter Baltzer Nielsen . 106 Mayors on a trip to 2050 . 34 . Peter Rathje. 109 . CAMP 2. 37. APPENDIX 1: PROGRAMME: Decision-power and wide-set collaboration . 37 THE PEOPLE MEETING 2014. 113. 1 Welcome to 2050 WHAT WILL DENMARK LOOK LIKE We hope that the rest of Denmark – businesses, IN 2050? other municipalities, regions, state and not least What will Denmark look like in 2050? citizens – will use and participate in DK2050 and By taking part in DK2050, 10 Danish be inspired and discuss as well as act, in order municipalities have started the important debate for us to work towards realizing the goals of the on how Danish cities and urban regions can future – together. navigate and work towards a well-balanced Denmark as we reach 2050. Welcome to DK2050. DK2050 presents a number of qualified ideas on which way to go and shows the dilemmas and solutions connected with creating green growth in Denmark and realizing the goal of a country free of fossil fuels by 2050. Through four scenarios we can picture what Denmark and Danish cities could look like in 2050 – all based on how we act now. Frank Jensen, Lord Mayor, Copenhagen Erik Lauritzen, mayor, Sønderborg Jacob Bundsgaard, mayor, Aarhus Jacob Bjerregaard, mayor, Fredericia Thomas Kastrup-Larsen, mayor, Aalborg Steen Dahlstrøm, mayor, Middelfart Anker Boye, mayor, Odense Martin Damm, mayor, Kalundborg Iver Enevoldsen, mayor, Ringkøbing-Skjern Michael Ziegler, mayor, Høje-Taastrup 2 DK2050 – Sammen om et grønnere Danmark – Dansk Arkitektur Center DK2050 presents four possible future scenarios for Denmark. These four maps illustrate the possible geographical consequences of the four scenarios. Illustration: MUTOPIA 3 When scenarios meet reality In Aalborg, the presentation of the four possible maps of Denmark led to a debate about the survival of the airport, the role of the university, and about what Aalborg would look like in the different scenarios for the future. These scenarios have challenged Aalborg to think ahead and be innovative, but it has also made it clear what we don’t want the future to be. Thomas Kastrup-Larsen, mayor of Aalborg since January 2014, talks to us about his ideas of what can happen when the scenarios become reality, and on how the city can use them in the future. Which possibilities and dilemmas has DK2050 contributed to map out and debate in Aalborg? The scenarios of DK2050 have really challenged us to be innovative and think far ahead. DK2050 has given us some strong images of what the future could look like. That’s both a strength and a challenge that you have Thomas Kastrup-Larsen, mayor of Aalborg, part of to take into consideration. I see a potential DK2050. danger when negative scenarios have been written down and drawn up because they become part of reality and get that much closer to being a reality than we might actually want them to be. This works both ways, obviously, and I think these scenarios have presented Aalborg with some exciting possibilities too. How do you see your role and possibilities of action as a municipality when it comes to the green transition, and how important is it to act regionally and nationally? DK2050 underlines the fact that development has to come from the urban regions and shows that it is a huge responsibility to take on. You could say that that the project shows us where to focus – both when it comes to threats and possibilities. 4 Partnerships for a greener Denmark in 2050 – About the process and results of the DK2050 project – Dansk Arkitektur Center The scenarios present several possible futures other things, the role of the university in the for Aalborg, They have provided us with a city – which is very central in the future too, solid foundation for a debate on what we just as several of the scenarios point out. want – and what we want to work to avoid. It seems clear to me that we need to think alike What kind of future is realistic and in urban regions when it comes to things like attractive to Aalborg and the region, business development and infrastructure, for in your eyes? example. This is just like we do today with I see more reality in the scenarios that Business Region North which works as a strong describe Aalborg as a centre for intelligent business-promoting entity. urban planning and green industry, an area where we’re already ahead. In my opinion, Collaborating with the state is important here the scenarios also show that we can’t talk too. For instance, you could imagine a scenario about a sustainable Denmark without having where the state commits to developing a a knowledge-based industry in Danish city strategy for business development in the regions. This is a point of strength for Aalborg, different regions of Denmark, giving us a which the scenarios also point out, that we shared point of departure supporting the need to put our money on. regional work. A good example is the coming light rail. I’m The idea of the scenarios has been sure it will contribute – more than many people developed to create debate. It’s already might expect – to us having a unique position well on its way in Aalborg. What has when it comes to the green transition and a been your experience with the debate green and efficient infrastructure in Aalborg. that stemmed from the scenarios? There’s been a lot of focus on the parts of the How will the municipality of Aalborg use scenarios which try to erase us from the history DK2050 and the scenarios in the future? books.