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Population Status of the Critically Endangered Waved Albatross Phoebastria Irrorata, 1999 to 2007

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Population Status of the Critically Endangered Waved Albatross Phoebastria Irrorata, 1999 to 2007 Preprint, 2008 ENDANGERED SPECIES RESEARCH Published online May 28, 2008 doi: 10.3354/esr00089 Endang Species Res Contribution to the Theme Section ‘Fisheries bycatch: problems and solutions’ OPENPEN ACCESSCCESS Population status of the Critically Endangered waved albatross Phoebastria irrorata, 1999 to 2007 David J. Anderson1,*, Kathryn P. Huyvaert2, Jill A. Awkerman1, 3, Carolina B. Proaño4, W. Bryan Milstead5, Gustavo Jiménez-Uzcátegui5, Sebastian Cruz4, Jacquelyn K. Grace1 1Dept. of Biology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina 27109-7325, USA 2Dept. of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1474, USA 3National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Environmental Protection Agency, Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, Florida 32561-5239, USA 4Colegio de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito, Ecuador 5Charles Darwin Research Station, Isla Santa Cruz, Galápagos, Ecuador ABSTRACT: Understanding the demography of the Critically Endangered waved albatross Phoebas- tria irrorata is crucial for effective policy responses to recent threats, most notably fishery mortality. Using current vital rates data and a stochastic matrix model, we confirm the conclusion of Awkerman et al. (2006) that the population growth rate (λ) was less than 1 in recent years, indicating a shrinking population. Earlier comparisons of recent population size suggested that the breeding population shrunk between 1994 and 2001, but these were based on only 2 counts. A new count in 2007 indi- cated continued reduction in breeding population size, and the magnitude of the recent reduction was consistent with that projected by our model. New information suggests that plastic ingestion appears to pose a minor threat, if any, to this species, in contrast to the serious problems that it causes in some other albatrosses. Reduction of adult mortality in the coastal fishery appears to be the most effective means to stabilize this threatened species. KEY WORDS: Annual adult survival · Fecundity · Galápagos · Stochastic matrix model · Plastic pollution · Waved albatross Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher INTRODUCTION Albatrosses and Petrels) resulting from the ‘uplisting’. Here we report the results of this fourth population size The waved albatross Phoebastria irrorata was re- estimate. We also update the results of Awkerman et al. cently uplisted to Critically Endangered on the Interna- (2006), presenting new results concerning annual adult tional Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red survival over the period 1999 to 2006 and incorporating List (IUCN 2008), based in part on strong evidence of improved vital rate estimates into population matrix reduced annual adult survival and fishery mortality at models. Finally, we report the first information concern- the species’ principal feeding area off the western coast ing plastic ingestion in this species. Plastic ingestion of South America (Awkerman et al. 2006). Weaker evi- has been implicated in nestling mortality of some other dence concerning trend in population size is consistent albatross species (Sileo et al. 1990) and has never been with a recent decline (Anderson et al. 2002, Awkerman evaluated as a risk for waved albatrosses. et al. 2006), but the data are scant, based on only 3 esti- Essentially a single-island endemic, almost all waved mates (1970 to 1971, 1994, and 2001). The scarcity of albatrosses nest on Isla Española (aka Hood Island), population size estimates motivated an effort in May Galápagos Islands, Ecuador (1° 20’ S, 89° 40’ W), simpli- 2007 to provide a fourth point to inform new policy pro- fying the task of estimating population size to some cesses (cf. under the Agreement on the Conservation of extent. However, the terrain is presently heavily vege- *Email: [email protected] © Inter-Research 2008 · www.int-res.com 2 Endang Species Res: Preprint, 2008 tated, in contrast to conditions at the time of the first population size estimate in 1970 and 1971 (Harris 1973) when the vegetation was more open, due to her- bivory by feral goats Capra hircus that were eradicated in 1978. By 2001, access to nesting areas in the center of the island was difficult, and we focused then on the large populations at the eastern and western points of the island (Punta Cevallos and Punta Suárez, respec- tively; Anderson et al. 2002). In 2007, we also focused on these points, using the same field methods as in 2001 to estimate population size. MATERIALS AND METHODS Fig. 1. Phoebastria irrorata. Laying schedules in a subsection Population size. We counted incubated eggs present of the Punta Cevallos breeding colony, 2000 to 2005, with the at Punta Suárez on May 11 and 12 and at Punta Ceval- partial 2007 schedule shown by circles. The right-most circle los on May 12 and 13, 2007 during the seasonal egg- shows the total number of eggs laid in 2007 by June 15. Arrow shows the date of the count to determine the value of the laying period to estimate the number of pairs breeding ‘egg gain factor’ (see ‘Materials and methods’) on those days. We augmented those totals using the ‘egg loss’ and ‘egg gain’ factors of Anderson et al. (2002), which correct for eggs laid and abandoned be- (1979) and implemented within Program MARK (White fore, and those laid after, the dates of the egg count. We & Burnham 1999). This research was conducted by determined these correction factors in a subsection of permit of the Galápagos National Park Service, as the Punta Cevallos colony (the focal Study Area; see required by Ecuadorian law. Anderson et al. 2002) in the following way: breaking all Annual adult survival. As in Awkerman et al. (2006), abandoned eggs from previous seasons in the Study we used Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) capture-mark- Area before laying began in 2007; monitoring laying recapture methods (Lebreton et al. 1992) implemented between May 4 and 14, including the new eggs already in Program MARK (White & Burnham 1999) to analyze present on May 4; and returning to the subsection on encounter histories of 498 birds banded between 1999 June 15 to count any new eggs laid after May 14. For a and 2006 to estimate survival and recapture probabili- given day of the May 11 to 13 egg count, we divided the ties of adult waved albatrosses within the focal Study number of eggs already lost in the Study Area by the Area at Punta Cevallos. Our candidate model set con- number of eggs incubated in the Study Area on the sisted of survival (Φ) and resight/recapture (p) proba- same day, then multiplied that proportion by the num- bility parameters that could: remain constant (.), vary ber of eggs counted on the island that day, and added with year (t), vary by sex (g), or include variation from that egg loss factor to the day’s island count. We used the mild 2002 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) similar calculations to derive the egg gain factor. Com- warm event (E). Given strong evidence for variability parison of the partial laying schedule from 2007 with in recapture probabilities over time and in survival in complete laying schedules from other years (Fig. 1) in- response to a mild ENSO warm event (Awkerman et dicated that laying should have finished by June 15. al. 2006), we did not include here several other models The Study Area is flat and open, and both incubated that received less support in those previous analyses. and unincubated eggs are detected easily. D. J. A. and We now include new models incorporating additive K. P. H. were involved in each of the last 3 counts (1994, effects of group (sex) and time (year) on survival and 2001, 2007), maintaining consistency of methods. recapture probabilities in light of new evidence of We recorded band numbers of apparent non-breed- protandry in the colony (Huyvaert et al. 2006). We used ers daily from May 4 to 14, 2007, and used these Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) for model selec- records to calculate the size of the non-breeding popu- tion and model averaging (Burnham & Anderson lation that was present over the 10 d study period 2002). In practice, we used QAICc, a version of AIC within Subcolonies 1 and 2 of Huyvaert & Anderson adjusted for overdispersion and small sample sizes, (2004), an area much larger than, but encompassing, incorporating adjustment of the variance inflation fac- the focal Study Area described above. The size of this tor (c ˆ or ‘c-hat’) based on the ‘median c-hat’ approach component of the total population was estimated by (=1.73; Cooch & White 2007). Models with the lowest applying a jackknife estimator and variance and stan- QAICc values are assumed to better explain variation dard error terms described in Burnham & Overton in the data. Anderson et al.: Population status of the waved albatross 3 Population growth rate. Awkerman et al. (2006) pro- vival estimates were greater than current adult sur- duced a periodic stage-based matrix model to estimate vival estimates, we used current adult survival esti- lambda (λ; population growth rate) and to evaluate the mates for juveniles as well. We suspect that these esti- elasticity of population growth to the matrix elements. mates are optimistic for juveniles, which presumably The model did not incorporate the sex ratio bias later sustain higher mortality prior to recruitment. In years detected by Awkerman et al. (2007); the female bias where the fate of all chicks was not known at the end reduces population-level estimates of fecundity in this of the season, we assumed fledging of all nestlings obligately bi-parental species. Here, we reparameter- alive at the time our monitoring stopped in our esti- ize a simpler model based on only 3 stages using the mates of breeding success. Our data included a single methods of Awkerman et al.
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