Cuba May Have 20 Billion Barrels of Oil but Cash Crunch Threatens
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Vol. 16, No. 10 November 2008 www.cubanews.com In the News Obama victory could mean substantial GOP dynasty over? changes in Washington’s Cuba policy Díaz-Balart brothers face challenges from BY ANA RADELAT and remittances to family on the island. Joe García, Raúl Martínez ............Page 2 en. Barack Obama’s likely presidential vic- As a punitive measure, Bush in 2004 limited tory will bring about quick and substantial visits to once every year and only to immediate Tourism thrives S improvements in U.S.-Cuba policy, but a family members. He also restricted remittances, permanent thaw in relations — and an end to but Obama has promised to restore the “unre- Visitors flock to Cuba despite hurricanes, the embargo — isn’t imminent, say analysts. stricted right” of exiles to visit family and send them money. global financial meltdown .............Page 3 After nearly 50 years of promises by Ameri- “Beyond that, he may initiate discussions can presidents to put an end to Fidel Castro’s with Cuban representatives, but not the top EU, Cuba: Friends again socialism, Obama may be the one who finally leader,” Suchlicki told CubaNews. witnesses a Cuba without a Castro at the helm. European Union renews cooperation pact Criticized by his rival for the White House, Fidel Castro, 82, is ailing, and his brother and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), and Bush foreign pol- with Cuba after 5-year hiatus .......Page 4 successor Raúl is only five years younger. icy officials for his willingness to negotiate with While a full normalization of U.S.-Cuba rela- hostile nations, Obama will probably send U.S. Who’s in, who’s out tions won’t occur until the Castro brothers leave representatives to meet with Ricardo Alarcón, the world stage, observers do expect a marked Casas and Cabrisas promoted, Valenciaga president of Cuba’s National Assembly, or change in U.S. policy, one that lacks the ideo- another Cuban official on the same level while booted in latest reshuffling ..........Page 6 logical bent of the Bush administration. avoiding direct contact with Raúl Castro him- Jaime Suchlicki, director of the University of self, Suchlicki said. Leptospirosis alert Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-Ameri- “But the point is negotiations with the Cuban can Studies, said the Illinois Democrat is likely government is a waste of time,” said Sucklicki, In hurricanes’ wake, Cuba worries about to move fairly quickly to end President Bush’s who favors a hard line against Cuba’s socialist a nasty old infection ......................Page 7 restrictions on Cuban-American travel to Cuba See Obama, page 2 Newsmakers CANF President Francisco ‘Pepe’ Hernán- Cuba may have 20 billion barrels of oil dez tells CubaNews why U.S. policy to- ward the island must change .......Page 8 but cash crunch threatens investment BY LARRY LUXNER Further out in the Gulf, Tenreyro said, are Nickel nightmare oes Cuba really have more petroleum re- structures that belong to the same geological World prices take a nosedive as Ike slash- serves than Angola, Qatar or even Brazil? formations off of Mexico and the United States which had produced celebrated finds such as es production in Holguín ............Page 10 DWell, yes — if you believe the latest claim by state-run oil entity Cubapetroleo (Cupet). Mexico’s Cantarell and Poza Rica fields. Speaking only about an oil belt north of the “All these geological elements indicate that Business briefs island deep underneath Cuba’s Gulf of Mexico we are talking about a new oil province — an oil Spaniards to restructure $1.5 billion debt; waters, Cupet’s production manager Rafael Ten- zone that has not been drilled nor has it been reyro Pérez, announced Oct. 16 that “this belt touched,” said Tenreyro, adding that the poten- New salary reforms delayed ......Page 12 now has resources, calculated not hypothetical, tial is there for “giant and super-giant oil fields.” of more than 20 billion barrels. They are the re- Pie in the sky, retorts Jorge Piñón, energy fel- Harlista heaven serves. That could be multiplied several times.” low and Cuba expert with the University of Miami’s Center for Hemispheric Policy. Devoted Harley-Davidson riders save their The geology of the oil belt extends to a basin further north where much larger structures “I was in Houston when that announcement prized bikes from oblivion ..........Page 14 hold the promise of hydrocarbons, he said. was made, and I think it backfired on them, “The effect of the [belt] is reflected in this because people in Houston thought Cupet was a CubaNews (ISSN 1073-7715) is published monthly zone in the presence of enormous structures,” little more professional,” he told CubaNews. by Luxner News Inc. © 2008. All rights reserved. Tenreyro told reporters in Havana. “Here we’re “Oil industry people are now taking Cupet Subscriptions: $429 for one year, $800 for two years. talking about structures of 80, 100, 120 sq kms. less seriously, when they make unprofessional For editorial inquires, please call (301) 452-1105 and unscientific statements like that,” he said. or send an e-mail to: [email protected]. Therefore, the reserves multiply practically sev- eral times and the resources, too.” See Oil, page 9 2 CubaNews ❖ November 2008 pact that stopped a rash of Cuban “rafters” in Kirby Jones, founder and president of the Obama — FROM PAGE 1 1994. Bush ended these bi-annual meetings, U.S.-Cuba Trade Association, said Obama is regime. He said Cuba is already committed — which allowed for cautious diplomacy. likely to be pressured by other Latin leaders politically and economically — to Iran, China, Obama could also move to increase Ameri- to improve U.S.-Cuba relations. Russia and Venezuela, and doesn’t need in- can contacts with Cubans by removing Bush’s “If you want to send a message to Latin centives from Washington. restrictions on non-exile travel to the island. America there’s a new team and a new “The United States has little to offer Cuba But Obama’s ambitions would be ham- approach: you do something about Cuba.” except tourists and investment in the tourism pered by a series of laws approved by But lifting the embargo — even a little to industry, and that’s not what Cuba really Congress over the years. First among them is allow all Americans to visit Cuba — would wants,” said Suchlicki. He added that an the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which stripped take an act of Congress. Obama administration will likely insist on pre- the White House of authority over the embar- ‘A WHOLE NEW PLAYING FIELD’ conditions before easing economic sanctions, go. Most of those laws tightened the embar- such as the release of all political prisoners. go, but a 1999 regulation that allowed U.S. In the 110th Congress, Bush’s threat to “Countries don’t give away their policy; food sales to Cuba had a tradeoff: it limited veto any relaxation of sanctions helped derail they negotiate,” Sucklicki said. the White House’s ability to expand travel any efforts to improve relations with Havana. beyond what was already allowed. There was another obstacle, too — Senate But Cuba’s government does not accept As part of his “people-to-people” policy, conditions to changing relations, he said. Majority Leader Harry Reid’s opposition to Clinton had increased U.S. travel to Cuba by improved ties. POSSIBLE GOODWILL GESTURES allowing 13 categories of Americans including Jones said that wouldn’t be a factor in a Sen- scholars, amateur athletes, journalists, reli- Vicki Huddleston, former chief of the U.S. gious leaders and farmers negotiating sales to ate where Democrats have picked up seats Interests Section in Havana, also said Obama visit Cuba. Most of those who qualified need- and it may be easy to muster the 60 votes would move quickly to end restrictions on ed licenses from the Treasury Department to needed to thwart an attempt by Reid, or any Cuban-American travel and remittances. spend money on those trips. other senator for that matter, to keep Cuba- “But sitting down to negotiate is pretty far Bush restricted the approval of licenses related legislation from a vote. down the road,” she told CubaNews. and limited the categories of Americans who “It’s risky to predict that Reid would have Huddleston, now a visiting fellow at the could travel to Cuba. In contrast, Obama is the same attitude, with Obama and other Washington-based Brookings Institution, said likely to encourage the “people-to-people” Democrats wanting change,” Jones said. Obama and Raúl may move to “improve the contacts once again, Huddleston said. Besides supporting a move letting all atmosphere” of bilateral ties which became Americans visit Cuba, Obama may back an ef- increasingly toxic during the Bush years. LATIN AMERICA AGAIN A PRIORITY? fort that stalled in the last Congress allowing For example, both governments might con- Obama has been criticized for never having U.S. oil giants to drill for oil in Cuban waters. sider eliminating travel restrictions on each visited Latin America and seeming to know Cuba has recently announced there may be other’s diplomats. Huddleston said those little about the Spanish-speaking world. And up to 20 billion barrels of petroleum under its restrictions prevented U.S. representatives in there’s a good reason the region may not be a Gulf of Mexico exclusive economic zone. The Havana from getting any sense of what was priority for the new president: wars in Iraq potential of a huge oil find has drawn the in- happening on the island — making it hard to and Afghanistan are certain to take center terest of major international energy firms.