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RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 4•No. 4•OCTOBER – DECEMBER•2006 Contents From Nationalism to Nation Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Russia – A Divided Nation? Kondopoga: A Warning Bell Alexander Dugin 8 The events that exploded to the surface in that small microcosm of Russian society reflect the country’s situation on the ethnic, professional and psy- chological plane. Kondopoga may blaze a trail into the abyss for all of us, as the road of interethnic tensions will only lead to Russia’s collapse, to a finale where it will lose its leading positions in global geopolitics. Non-Islamic Extremism in Today’s Russia Nikolai Mitrokhin 14 The Russian elite has made a choice in favor of a right-wing conservative and isolationist ideology and policy, which is reminiscent of the era of McCarthyism in the United States. The authorities and large national capi- tal defend their property and domestic market from strangers and occasion- ally expand, if need be. Islam, the Way We See It Alexei Malashenko 28 Russia’s attitude to Islam and Muslims also fits into the general context of xenophobia that in the first half of the 1990s was considered to be a hang- over of post-totalitarian thinking; 10 years later, however, it has turned into a core element of the public consciousness. The Conflict of Civilizations: What Is in Store for Russia? 42 Mikhail Demurin It would be better to avoid any more labor migrants, whose inflow has reached a scale likely to jeopardize the ethnic and cultural balance in Russia’s major cities and in the Russian Federation on the whole. Furthermore, their presence serves to provoke an increase of tensions between different ethnic groups. Contents The Soviet Union 15 Years After President Putin as Prince Hamlet Dmitry Furman 56 A society that lacks the ability to live in a democracy, as well as having no alternatives to it, produces the sort of political system that has taken shape in Russia. It is a system of presidential power disguised in the vestments of democracy. Yet such a system does not stem from malevolent intent, but rather emerges on its own. Uncompleted Transition Leonid Grigoriev, Marsel Salikhov 63 Inherent weaknesses of the newly independent countries include not only high social costs and poor product quality, but also a shortage of manageri- al capital with the experience and abilities required to successfully compete on the global market. Labor Migration – Factors and Alternatives Serguey Ivanov 84 Although Moscow has repeatedly declared that it views ethnic Russians in the ex-Soviet Union as the main reserve of immigrants into Russia, it still does not have an intelligible strategy for attracting and assimilating these groups, while the existing rules for granting Russian citizenship remain high- ly restrictive. What We Know About Post-Soviet Countries Modest Kolerov 98 Throughout the post-Soviet space, at the helm of political, spiritual and all other kinds of power, there comes nationalism. Nationalism may vary from soft political to rigid ethnocratic, but one way or another, states that have seen the rise of their statehood, regard their national idea not as something shameful but as a long-formulated ideology. Real Sovereignty and Sovereign Democracy Andrei Kokoshin 105 Rational and realistic views of democracy as a system of governance that ensures greater efficiency are not yet widespread in Russian society. Russians pinned too much hope on democracy as an ideology, especially in the late 1980s-early 1990s, and idealized its attributes. No doubt those sen- timents flourished under strong external influences of various kinds. The Energy Superpower Russia’s “Energy Key” Strategy Mikhail Dmitriev 120 If Russia concentrates its energy exports solely on Europe, we would do so without receiving markets for our high-value-added exports in exchange. We may just not find such markets in Europe. But if we want to receive promis- ing markets in China and India, we must understand that the “energy key” is the easiest way to open them. Neo-Con Plans and the Sober Reality Vladimir Milov 124 For Russian neo-cons, the idea of entering the energy markets of the largest Asian powers – China and India – is cast almost as an economic basis for a global geopolitical revolution. Russia will restructure its energy supply sys- tem away from Europe, leaving it with an acute energy shortage, while pro- viding economic underpinnings to the BRIC as a global geopolitical alter- native to the West. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 4 • No. 4 • OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2006 Contents Assessing Russia’s Energy Doctrine Mikhail Delyagin 134 Objectively, Russia's strategic goal is to gain full control over the gas and oil pipeline network across the post-Soviet space. Presently, the main priority of Russia’s energy strategy should be to block – at any cost and by any means – the implementation of a gas pipeline project from Kazakhstan to Turkey bypassing Russia, as well as all other projects that threaten to cut Russia off from vital gas sources. Global Agenda Growing Pains or a Paradigm Shift? 146 Roderic Lyne, Strobe Talbott and Koji Watanabe There is no denying that the Cold War left a legacy of suspicion which can all too easily, albeit irrationally, be reawakened. Responsible leaders should refrain from playing on that legacy and reopening old wounds. Paranoia makes bad policy. If, as it seems, we have entered a period of turbulence, there will be a need to exercise restraint, built on the many things which bind us together, and focus clearly on our long-term goals and best inter- ests. U.S.-Russian Relations: An American Perspective 157 Robert Legvold The source of the challenge is whether Russia is (or soon will be) too strong or too weak. In fact, Russia is both. The tendency of leadership in both countries to waver inconsistently between the two images, rather than deal candidly and carefully with the way the two are conjoined, gives to narrow, near-term irritants a heightened resonance. The Strategic Dilemma of Central Asia Farkhod Tolipov 170 The Central Asian countries are now objects of global politics. Their transi- tion from being “objects” to becoming “subjects” is possible only through full-fledged regional integration. Clearly, strategic partnership must be estab- lished, above all, between the states of the region themselves. Perhaps, this is the best way to solve the strategic dilemma in Central Asia. Cuba: The Final Act Carlos Alberto Montaner 179 For three generations, the Cubans have had to adapt their behavior to the arbitrariness, pressure and abuse of a totalitarian dictatorship and, as with all the other countries that have abandoned Communism, those conditions have created in society some negative habits that will be very difficult to eradicate. It will take time before the Cubans discover that life in freedom is different. Responses The Pragmatic Option? Fabrizio Tassinari, Marius Vahl 192 Structural Militarization and Russia’s Failed Transition 210 Steven Rosefielde RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 4 • No. 4 • OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2006 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir OVCHINSKY Interros Holding Company (Finland) Mikhail KOMISSAR Vladimir POZNER Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Vyacheslav KOPIEV Sergei PRIKHODKO Association for the Protection Alexei ARBATOV (in a personal capacity) of Investors’ Rights Mikhail KOZHOKIN Lev BELOUSOV Yaroslav KUZMINOV Yevgeny PRIMAKOV Andrei KUZYAEV (Deputy Chairman) Vladimir RYZHKOV LUKoil Overseas Holding Ltd. Sergei LAVROV C. Fred BERGSTEN (U.S.A.) (in a personal capacity) Horst TELTSCHIK Boris KUZYK Carl BILDT Alexander LIVSHITS (Germany) New Concepts and Programs (Sweden) Anatoly TORKUNOV Holding Industrial Company Vladimir LUKIN Vladimir GRIGORYEV Lord William WALLACE (in a personal capacity) Fyodor LUKYANOV Valery OKULOV (Editor-in-Chief) (Great Britain) Aeroflot JSC James HOGE (U.S.A) Vladimir MAU Sergei YASTRZHEMBSKY Ruben VARDANYAN Igor IVANOV (in a personal capacity) (in a personal capacity) Thierry de MONTBRIAL Troika-Dialog Group (France) Igor YURGENS Karl KAISER (Germany) Simon VAYNSHTOK Vyacheslav NIKONOV Alexander ZHUKOV Transneft JSC Irina KHAKAMADA (Deputy Chairman) Sergei ZVEREV Helmut KOHL (Germany) Victor VEKSELBERG SUAL-Holding Vladimir YEVTUSHENKOV BOARD OF ADVISORS Sistema JSFC Anatoly ADAMISHIN Leonid GRIGORIEV Mark SHKUNDIN FOUNDERS: Olga BUTORINA Alexander LOMANOV Anatoly VISHNEVSKY Vladimir ENTIN Georgy MIRSKY COUNCIL ON FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICY INFORMATIONAL PARTNERS RUSSIAN• UNION OF INDUSTRIALISTS •Newspapers: Izvestia, Moscow News, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Sovershenno Sekretno, AND ENTREPRENEURS Vremya Novostey News Agencies: Interfax, RIA Novosti, Rosbalt •Radio Station Echo of Moscow IZVESTIA• • NATIONAL DAILY PUBLISHED BY LEGAL PR PARTNER CONSULTANCY GLOBUS PUBLISHING HOUSE KROS Public Relations KLISHIN & PARTNERS Company RUSSIAN EDITION Attorneys at Law IS PUBLISHED WITH PARTICIPATION OF Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov Deputies Editor-in-Chief Natalya Kostromskaya, Timofei Bordachev Director General Assistant to Chairman Russian Edition FOREIGN AFFAIRS Irina Palekhova of the Editorial Board Yelena Blinnikova Copy Editors Editorial Office: Copy Editors Alexander Kuzyakov Robert Bridge Computer Makeup Lyubov Ryklina 11 Mokhovaya St., Bldg. 3B, Rinat Yakubov Natalia Zablotskite Moscow 103873, Russia Proof-Reader tel.: +7 (495) 980-7353 Proof-Reader Design and Layout Arnold Kun Lyudmila Kupchenko Konstantin Radchenko fax: +7 (495) 937-7611 e-mail: [email protected] Assistant to Editor-in-Chief Circulation Yelena Nikitina Andrei Yevdokimov http://www.globalaffairs.ru Web Editor tel.: 7 (095) 937-7611 Photos contributed Pavel Zhitnyuk [email protected] by Fotobank Agency Registered with THE MINISTRY [email protected] OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR PRESS, TV AND RADIO BROADCASTING AND MEANS OF MASS COMMUNICATION PI No. 77-12900 3 June 2002 The views of the authors do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of the Editors. The responsibility for the authenticity and accuracy of the facts in the published articles rests with Printed by the authors.
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