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National Disaster Risk Assessment REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA Gregorčičeva 20–25, 1000 Ljubljana T: +386 1 478 1000 F: +386 1 478 1607 E: [email protected] http://www.vlada.si Number: 84000-3/2016/3 Date: 7 December 2016 NATIONAL DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT Version 1.1 NATIONAL DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT, Version 1.1 2/464 _________________________________________________________________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................3 1.2 Disaster risk assessment as a novelty in disaster Investigation .......................................................................................3 1.3 Organisational aspects of the development od disaster risk assessments .......................................................................5 2 Criteria for the assessment of risk impacts and the likelihood of disasters, and disaster risk matrices . 10 2.1 Criteria for the assessment of risk impacts and the likelihood of disasters .....................................................................10 2.1.1 Criteria for the assessment of risk impacts on people .............................................................................................10 2.1.2 Criteria for the assessment of economic and environmental risk impacts and risk impacts on cultural heritage ....11 2.1.3 The criteria for the assessment of political and social risk impacts .........................................................................12 2.1.3.1 The criteria for the assessment of risk impacts on the operation of state bodies…………………………………………...……13 2.1.3.2 The criteria for the assessment of risk impacts of the functioning of major infrastructure systems …………….……..........14 2.1.3.3 The criteria for the assessment of the psychosocial risk impact ……….…...…………………………………………...…….........15 2.1.3.4 The criteria for the assessment of risk impacts on internal policitcal stability…………………………………………………......16 2.1.3.5 The criteria for the assessment of risk impacts on financial stability ……………..…………………………………...…………….17 2.1.3.6 The criteria for the assessment of risk impacts on foreign policy or international stability..………….…….………..…….......19 2.1.3.7 The final value and level of political or social risk impacts……………………………...…………………………………………...…20 2.1.4 Criteria for the assessment of likelihood of disasters ....................................................................................................................... 21 2.2 Disaster risk matrices ......................................................................................................................................................21 3 Disaster tisk and climate change ..................................................................................................................... 26 4 Disaster risk assessment and critical infrastructure ..................................................................................... 31 5 Summaries and conclusions of risk assessments for indiviudal disasters…………………………………..33 5.1 Risk Assessment for Earthquake ..................................................................................................................................34 5.2 Risk Assessment for Drought .......................................................................................................................................51 5.3 Risk Assessment for Floods ..........................................................................................................................................64 5.4 Risk Assessment for Hazards of Biological, Chemical, Environmental or Unknown Origin for Human Health .............91 5.5 Risk Assessment for Highly contagious Animal Diseases ..........................................................................................105 5.6 Risk Assessment for Nuclear or Radological Accidents .............................................................................................125 5.7 Risk Assessment for Railway Accidents .....................................................................................................................139 5.8 Risk Assessment for Aircraft Accidents ......................................................................................................................148 5.9 Risk Assessment for Large Wildfires ..........................................................................................................................161 5.10 Risk Assessment for Terrorism ...................................................................................................................................179 5.11 Risk Assessment for Ice Storms .................................................................................................................................186 5.12 Risk Assessment for Accidents involving Dangerous Substances .............................................................................197 6 Joint Disaster Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................... 212 7 Overview of selected risk scenarios and risk analyses ............................................................................... 228 8 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................... 229 9 Explanations and Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 231 10 Sources ......................................................................................................................................................... 233 11 Annexes ......................................................................................................................................................... 235 11.1 Annex 1: Risk scenario: Earthquake in the Central Part of Slovenia ..........................................................................236 11.2 Annex 2: Risk scenario: Major and catastrophic floods ..............................................................................................256 11.3 Annex 3: Risk scenario: The Occurrence of Foot-and-Mouth Disease .......................................................................293 11.4 Annex 4: Risk scenario: Aircraft Accident in a Populated Area...................................................................................317 11.5 Annex 5: Risk scenario: Large wildfire Šumka-Železna vrata-Trstelj ..........................................................................346 11.6 Annex 6: Risk scenario: Ice storm in February 2014 ..................................................................................................370 11.7 Annex 7: Risk scenario: Ice storm in February 2014 and Excessive Growth of Bark Beetle Populations after 2014 .429 12 Amendments and updates ............................................................................................................................ 462 December 2016 NATIONAL DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT, Version 1.1 3/464 _________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Introduction 1.1 Introduction Based on Article 5(2a) of the Decree Implementing the Decision on the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 62/14) the National Disaster Risk Assessment was prepared by the Administration Civil Protection and Disaster Relief of the Republic of Slovenia for (ACPDR), at the Ministry of Defence, as the National Coordinating Body for Disaster Risk Assessment in cooperation and in agreement with the authorities which are competent and responsible for the preparation of risk assessments for individual disasters. The Decree was adopted by Government Decision. The Decree Implementing the Decision on the Union Civil Protection Mechanism transposed the content of Article 6(a) of the Decision No. 1313/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013 on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism (Official Journal, No. 347 of 20 December 2013, p. 924) into Slovenian legislation. The National Disaster Risk Assessment is published on the public website of the ACPDR. 1.2 Disaster risk assessments as a novelty in disaster Investigation Natural and other disasters present a constant threat to mankind. Since progress and welfare introduce greater vulnerability to the society as a whole, disasters nowadays result in increasingly greater damage and consequences. For this reason, disaster risk assessments are gaining in importance. The European Commission (EC) also devotes great attention to activities which refer to the content and the preparation of disaster risk assessments. To this end, the EC issued guidelines at the end of 2010 entitled ‘The Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management’, SEC (2010) 1626 final of 21 December 2010 (hereinafter ‘European Guidelines’), on the content and conceptual arrangement of the assessment and presentation of risks in risk management. Under these guidelines, the member states mutually coordinated the manner of production and the content of disaster risk assessments. By doing so, the EC wanted to encourage the
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