Table of Contents On the Causes of War page Ch# Chapter Title by Michael Andregg ii. Dedication iii. Acknowledgements iv. List of Figures and Tables v. Introduction 1. Part I - Background 2. 1. The Essence of War and Peace 4. 2. Interviews With People Who Have Studied War and Peace 6. 3. Brief Review of Relevant Literature 9. 4. Relationships Between Genocide and War 11. 5. Review of Wars, Genocides and Flashpoints, 1990 - 1995 22. 6. Causation is Complex: Ultimate versus Proximate Causes, and Triggering Events 26. 7. Human Nature, Nurture, Free Will and War 30. 8. Two Models: Earthquake, and Three Green Lights 37. 9. If Present Trends Continue, the Probability of General War Will Peak Between 1997 and 2002, and How Such Estimates May Be Obtained 46. Part II - Select Causes: How They Work, and How to Solve Them 47. 10. Competition for Resources, and Inequalities of Wealth Within and Between Nations 52. 11. Competition for Power: International and Domestic Politics 62. 12. Population Pressure 74. 13. Authoritarian Law and Militant Religion 84. 14. Corruption of Governance 95. 15. Legalism 102. 16. Justice, Injustice, and Lack of Effective International Conflict Resolution Systems 110. 17. Nationalism and Militarism 116. 18. Forces of Evil 126. 19. Spies, Cults and Secret Power Systems 145. 20. Weapons Companies, Military Bureaucracy, Propaganda and Warmongers 153. 21. In vs. Out Groups: The Universal Double Standard of Justice 156. 22. Ethnicity, Nepotism and Racism 163. 23. Historical Grievances, Scapegoating, Demagoguery and “Parallel Realities” 167. 24. Revenge 172. 25. The Desire to Dominate, and Hubris 175. 26. The Desire for Adventure, Honor and Enemies, or Why Many Men Love War 181. 27. Greed, Hatred, Repression, Compulsion, Paranoia and Lesser Psychological Factors 188. 28. Balances of Power, and Equilibria 197. 29. The War on “Drugs” as a Model of Police-State Wars 206. Part III - How To Overcome War, and Survive 208. 30. Governance Without Governments 212. 31. Spirituality Without Churches 216. 32. Being A Warrior in the Third Millennium 223. 33. The Feminist Revolt and Masculinity 232. 34. The Biology of Survival: Economic and Political Consequences 238. 35. Freedom is Required; Justice is Desired 243. 36. The Body as a Metaphor for Social Organization 247. Appendix A: A version of the Prisoner’s Dilemma Exercise useful for teachers 250. Appendix B: Tables 1, 2, 3, and notes to each. 263. References ii Dedication This book is dedicated to: The millions of children who have died in wars, and tens of millions more maimed or orphaned, all due to wars which none of them created. To peace people, exemplified by Joseph Schwartzberg, Louise Pardee, William Eckhardt, Elsie Evans, and Arthur Sternberg, among many others who have dedicated themselves to abolition of the institution of war. To the honorable soldiers, exemplified by General John Vessey, Colonel David Pearson and Chief Warrent Officer Bill McCoy, among many others who have suffered and sacrificed to protect their peoples and to preserve essential human values like freedom. And especially to my wife, Jo Ann, who has carried a very heavy load during my 20 years work on this subject. The solutions to war require wisdom from many sources, but in particular I commend attention to the views of honorable soldiers and thoughtful peace people, each of whom hold about half the answer to the challenge of survival which confronts us all today. iii Acknowledgments It is not possible to do justice in this space to the thousands of people who have helped in large and small ways with this work. Consider the bibliography one other list of people who have worked, some for most of their professional lives, on parts of the problem I address here. Many other individuals have helped, from the 70 who submitted to detailed interviews on their views on war causes, to many students and faculty at many colleges who helped in many other ways with information and perspectives, to spies and former spies, most of whom do not desire specific recognition. I will remember the 12 people and six groups that follow with especial thanks, for reasons which they all know. All errors are, of course, my fault. Louise Pardee William Eckhardt Karla Caspari Bradley E. Ayers Midori Rynn David Smith Corrine Kohut David Wilkinson Tifani Rick Phil Porter Matthew Melko Vincent Hawkinson the International Society for the Comparative Study of Civilizations, the International Studies Association, especially its intelligence studies and its peace studies sections, the Consortium for Peace Research, Education and Development, the Peace Studies Association, the reference librarians of the world, but especially of the Twin Cities, and the University of St. Thomas, in St. Paul Minnesota, U.S.A. iv List of Tables and Figures page 5. Figure 1. Responses to “Weapons” and “Fighters,” Interviews on Causes of Wars 33. Figure 2. The 3 Green Lights Model of Genocide; 6 Green Lights for War 37. Figure 3. Probability of General War as a Function of Millennialism 47. Figure 4. Competition for Resources and p(War) 48. Figure 5. Inequalities of Wealth and p(War) 59. Figure 6. Competition for Power and p(War) 60. Figure 7. Reducing Relative Power of Nation States is a Means for Reducing p(War) 63. Figure 8. Population Pressure and p(War) 67. Figure 9. Pressure and Death Vectors, and the Starvation Boundary 68. Figure 10. Effect of Reducing Variance of the Distribution of Wealth 68. Figure 11. Pressure and Death Vectors: Effect of Change in Carrying Capacity 69. Figure 12. Aggregate Demand and Supply, 1900 - 2000 69. Figure 13. Global Alternatives 80. Figure 14. Authoritarian Law, Militant Religion and p(War) 85. Figure 15. Corruption of Governance and p(War) 93. Figure 16. A Solution to Corruption of Governance 95. Figure 17. Legalism and p(War) 104. Figure 18. The Problem, and a Solution in Graphs 105. Figure 19. Justice, Injustice, International Conflict Resolution Systems and p(War) 111. Figure 20. Militarism and p(War) 117. Figure 21. Forces of Evil and p(War) 118. Figure 22. An Example of Organizational Evil 127. Figure 23. Organizational Structure of Cults, Secret Societies and Spy Agencies 132. Figure 24. Spies, Cults, Secret Power Systems and p(War) 161. Figure 25. Comparison Between Two Groups Whose Averages Differ But Ranges Overlap Tables in Appendix B 250. Table 1. Wars, Genocides, Flashpoints and Police-State Wars: 1990-1995. 251. Notes to Table 1. 252. Table 2. Wars of 1990 - 1995, Dimensions of Conflict: Ethnicity, Religion, Economics, Population Pressure, and Personal Power Issues. 253. Notes to Table 2. 255. Table 3. 21 Selected Assassinations Relevant to Wars. 256 - 262. Notes to Table 3 with special reference to related wars. v Introduction I was walking in a park in Belfast, Northern Ireland, when Natalie and Alison approached me. They were pushing a carriage with a 3 to 4 month baby girl inside, as innocent as we all begin. The two 13 year olds started a conversation with the spe- cial charm which Irish people have, and captured in micro-scale the dilemma which confronts the whole world today. I had come to Belfast to learn from a professor about economic aspects of the conflict there, so I asked the girls what they thought of the “troubles.” They talked about the violence, boundaries and fear. Natalie’s uncle had been murdered two years earlier in a political attack, and both had to be careful where they walked and how they talked. They told me about the young men doing acts of daring to gain membership in gangs, how the boys would open their knives and wave them at the girls if they found they belonged to the “other” religion. They told me how another relative was beaten near to death in front of his toddler child, in an endless cycle of revenge where membership in the “other” church is all that is required to be a target. Unlike the adults I talked to there, the girls said not a word about politics, history or economics, only stories about growing up amidst violence and hatred. Minutes later, an elderly man from the “other” side approached me and filled my ear about the wickedness of those who had murdered and attempted murder the day before. His hatred and complete conviction in the rightness of his side were intense. His devotion to, and respect for, the leaders of his side was deeply sincere. All this happened in the same park, on the same day, in a town on our tiny planet Earth, which is preparing for another general war as I write. Which sides these people come from matters little to me; how they came to see each other as dangerous enemies matters a great deal. The conflict in Northern Ireland does not even count as a war by most definitions (I use Eckhardt’s which requires at least 1000 dead per one year as a result of armed violence involving at least one gov- ernment). In over 25 years of recent troubles, “only” about 3,200 have died in and directly related to the politics of Northern Ireland. But those troubles have permeated the lives of millions; it affects where they travel, what they say, how they think, the postage, the currency, who gets the plum jobs and who the crumbs, the basic structure of the economy they depend on, and fun- damental concepts of religion and civil life. So I will refer to Belfast, Northern Ireland, from time to time in this book even though the killing there is so small it escapes the lists of wars and genocides I study every day. Because Natalie and Alison and the baby child they escorted around the narrow circuit within which they felt safe, deserve a future.