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Q4 Broker Wrap Property Casualty Intelligence Briefing February 19, 2020 Q4 Broker Wrap: As Good As It Gets? Inside P&C Research 40% Stock performance 35% S&P 500 Gavin Davis 30% Inside P&C Select Director of Research 25% Insurance brokers E: [email protected] T: (212) 224 3328 20% 15% James Thaler, CFA Senior Analyst 10% E: [email protected] 5% T: (212) 224 3336 0% Darkhan Lukpanov, CFA -5% Research Analyst E: [email protected] Jul-19 Oct-19 Apr-19 Jan-20 Feb-19 Mar-19 Jun-19 Feb-20 Sep-19 Dec-19 Nov-19 May-19 Aug-19 T: (212) 224 3326 Insurance brokers reported another strong quarter, with results firing on all Gianluca Casapietra Research Analyst cylinders as the group kept outpacing historical averages on all key performance E: [email protected] metrics, with rare exceptions. The Q4 earnings fuelled a concerted rally of T: (212) 224 3495 valuations across the board sending all broker stocks to new highs. Notably, the sector outperformed P&C stocks and the broader market during earnings. Composite YTD px chg. P/B Organic growth was strong again at 4.9% all-in for the composite peer group. Large comm. 1.0% 1.1x The P&C brokerage operations dominated the growth as the divergence from non- Regional 5.5% 1.8x P&C operations (retirement, benefits, consulting, etc.) for the composite is at the Specialty 11.4% 2.7x highest level than at any point in at least 7 years (P&C growth at long-time high of Personal 12.0% 3.2x 6.2% vs 3.3% for non-P&C). This highlights that brokers are benefitting from the Bermuda 7.1% 1.7x tightened environment driving pricing, on top of the macroeconomic tailwinds. Florida (10.0)% 1.2x Brokers 10.4% - Growth tailwinds also aided margins, which continued to improve. IPC Select 5.5% 2.1x Q4 results also extended the multi-year expansion streaks on margins for most S&P 500 Fin. 0.0% - brokers ex-margin dilutive acquisitions (Brown & Brown), as organic growth S&P 500 4.3% - facilitated the bottom-line growth and the continued to deliver on cost efficiency. 1YR Price Peformance 40% However, the sailing has not been equally smooth for everyone in the sector. S&P 500 35% Beyond the strong fundamentals and cyclical tailwinds that lifted all the boats, there Inside P&C Select 30% were divergences on the micro level. With the broker valuations now elevated, Insurance brokers short-term headwinds may induce heightened volatility placing even more 25% difference between peers in the short run in the eyes of investors. 20% 15% As we have previously written, an example of that in Q4 was the two roads that diverged in large-cap broking sector. Aon has been focusing on product 10% enhancement and internal synergies, posted a blowout Q4 as it got a “free hit” on 5% the market as its biggest competitor played defence. This provided an interesting 0% comparison against MMC that spent nearly a year looking inward defending talent -5% Jul-19 Apr-19 Oct-19 Jun-19 Jan-20 Feb-19 Mar-19 Feb-20 Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 and market share as it digests its big bet on acquiring JLT. May-19 Of course, such strategy choices are best refereed over long term and it is far too early to have any true sense of what the ultimate answer will be. But what is clear from Aon's success in capitalizing on the once in a decade market opportunity is this: Whatever the baseline opportunity cost of investment was considered on day one of the JLT acquisition for MMC, it should now be raised. insidepandc.com 1 80% Total return performance Diff. (AON les MMC) 60% MMC MMC announced JLT AON 40% acquisition 20% Inside P&C Research 0% Gavin Davis Director of Research -20% E: [email protected] Jul-19 Jul-19 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-19 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jan-20 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Jun-19 Feb-20 Sep-18 Dec-18 Sep-19 Dec-19 Nov-18 Nov-18 Nov-19 May-19 Aug-19 T: (212) 224 3328 Another slight deviant in the sector’s otherwise universally remarkable James Thaler, CFA quarter was Willis Towers Watson. Senior Analyst The company that is few quarters away from a potentially challenging CEO transition E: [email protected] printed strong Q4 results both on the top and bottom lines but did not do so well T: (212) 224 3336 outside the income statement. The firm disappointed on Q4 cash flow and guidance, Darkhan Lukpanov, CFA a particularly bad look if you are unfortunate to have the reputation of the slowest Research Analyst cash converter in your peer group. E: [email protected] T: (212) 224 3326 Similarly, the broker expects a limited margin expansion in 2020, somewhat humbler Gianluca Casapietra than some peers guidance. The outlook casts some doubt on the bull case that Research Analyst closing the margin gap versus peers would fuel an upward revaluation. E: [email protected] The smaller margins and continued issues with the contract management, both T: (212) 224 3495 implying potentially appealing synergies for an acquirer to “fix”, as well as sub- Composite YTD px chg. P/B average sector valuation, increase the firm’s attractiveness as an M&A target. This Large comm. 1.0% 1.1x will likely become particularly relevant in the window until CEO John Haley steps Regional 5.5% 1.8x down and a transition plan is announced and executed. Specialty 11.4% 2.7x 2020 Implied Personal 12.0% 3.2x Rank Company 2016 2017 2018 2019 guidance expansion Bermuda 7.1% 1.7x 1 Brown & Brown 31.1% 29.5% 29.3% 29.0% No headwinds NA Florida (10.0)% 1.2x 2 Aon 20.9% 22.8% 25.0% 27.5% 28.2%+ 70bps+ Brokers 10.4% - 3 Marsh & McLennan 21.5% 20.6% 20.9% 22.0% Expand Expand IPC Select 5.5% 2.1x 4 AJ Gallagher 21.0% 20.5% 20.6% 21.3% 21.8%+ 50bps+ S&P 500 Fin. 0.0% - 5 Willis Towers Watson 20.6% 18.4% 18.1% 20.3% 20.5% 20bps S&P 500 4.3% - Finally, brokers that hitherto enjoyed only tailwinds from rising premium 1YR Price Peformance rates, have started facing a potential for headwinds. 40% S&P 500 35% These include somewhat increasing expenses reducing the benefit of operating Inside P&C Select leverage or “unhappy clients” leading to more client retention issues. We expect this 30% Insurance brokers to be a harbinger of a somewhat more challenging 2020, and a first indicator of an 25% environment that is less likely to be universally forgiving. 20% For years, we have been talking about the market power of the bigger brokers being 15% able to, in theory, leverage their market position to improve client outcomes on both 10% claims and pricing. In an environment of growing “friction” with carriers on claims 5% and a growing sense of “unhappy” clients, there is simply greater scope for divergent 0% client outcomes to lead to account wins and losses. In many ways this provides the -5% Jul-19 Apr-19 Oct-19 Jun-19 Jan-20 Feb-19 Mar-19 Feb-20 Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 first real test in a long time of the “bigger is always better” theory as periods of stress May-19 tend to accelerate the pace of change one way or another. That should lead to a greater potential for performance de-coupling than has been the case in the recent past of happy clients benefitting from persistent rate decreases and universally accommodative claims philosophies from carriers. Whether this inures to the benefit of the bigger brokers or the scrappy upstarts remains to be seen, but we expect 2020 to be more about the separation of winners and losers than about a rising tide lifting all boats equally. insidepandc.com 2 Brokers Q4 wrap • Brokers’ P&C brokerage composite organic growth up 6.2%, higher than in any quarter since at least 2012. • Operating margins expanded by 130bps YoY on average, 30 bps sequentially on TTM basis • Brokers provided positive outlook for 2020, expect margins to expand • Generally bullish message on insurance rates The fourth quarter results were a great fit to end the year of 2019 for insurance brokers that experienced the year of strong fundamental and cyclical tailwinds that sustained through the year. The American economy remained strong. More expensive prices of land, real estate, equipment, workforce and technology translated into higher risk exposures. Risk continues to become more complex and therefore professional advice more demanded as tech innovations threaten traditional business models. Political views in developed countries continue to become more polarized, with geopolitical tensions adding to the uncertainty, and complicating the strategic decision-making process. As a result, insurance and risk advice became more difficult to disassociate which contributed to an increase in the power of intermediaries relative to the insurance carriers. The favorable operating environment was evident from the brokers’ results throughout 2019 quarters with remarkably strong Q4 closing the year. Some of the quarter’s highlights include: o Aon’s all-in organic growth was 6%, the highest rate in over 15 years. o Willis reported 6% all-in organic growth for the third consecutive quarter. o MMC printed 3% all-in organic growth and closed the year with a solid 4% top- line organic expansion, despite the revenue headwinds from JLT, the broker’s largest acquisition in history.
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