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RESET AND MATCH ■ DIGITAL DIPLOMACY ■ MEMORIES OF A-100
AFSA ANNUAL REPORT INSIDE
$3.50 / MARCH 2010 OREIGN ERVICE FJ O U R N A L STHE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS
IRAQ & ITS NEIGHBORS New Challenges As the U.S. Shifts Focus C1-C4_FSJ_0310_COV:proof 2/15/10 2:25 PM Page C2 01-15_FSJ_0310_FRO:first 2/18/10 3:12 PM Page 1 01-15_FSJ_0310_FRO:first 2/18/10 3:12 PM Page 2 01-15_FSJ_0310_FRO:first 2/18/10 3:12 PM Page 3
OREIGN ERVICE FJ O U R N A L S CONTENTS March 2010 Volume 87, No. 3
F OCUS ON Iraq & Its Neighbors
IRAQ, IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES / 16 The route to direct talks between Washington and Tehran could run through Baghdad. By Selig S. Harrison
ACHIEVING CLOSURE ON IRAQ’S PREWAR WMD / 23 Understanding why it turned out Saddam Hussein had no WMD provides insights useful in other situations. By Charles A. Duelfer
Cover and inside illustrations THE U.S. AND TURKEY: BACK FROM THE BRINK / 30 by Laszlo Kubinyi American, Iraqi and Turkish policymakers should continue to focus on promoting dialogue and making common cause. PRESIDENT’S VIEWS / 5 By Ross Wilson Exploring the New Frontiers of THE MIDDLE EAST: FORKS IN THE WAY FORWARD / 37 Diplomacy and Development The stakes for getting U.S. policy right in the Middle East are higher than ever. By Susan R. Johnson Here is an overview of the problems and opportunities. By Chas W. Freeman Jr. SPEAKING OUT / 13 A Real Reset Button for U.S.-Russian Relations By Thompson Buchanan F EATURE
REFLECTIONS / 84 DIPLOMACY REBOOTED: MAKING DIGITAL STATECRAFT A REALITY / 43 A-100, Past and Present The State Department is now in a position to build novel By Steven Alan Honley applications to support the mission of diplomacy. By Chris Bronk LETTERS / 7 CYBERNOTES / 9 AFSA NEWS BOOKS / 68 2009 ANNUAL REPORT: WORKING FOR A STRONGER AFSA / 49 IN MEMORY / 71 MARKETPLACE / 78 YEAR IN REVIEW / 51 INDEX TO CONSTITUENCY SUMMARIES / 57 ADVERTISERS / 82 CLASSIFIEDS / 65
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A time of service…a time of need OREIGN ERVICE FJ O U R N A L S
Help for Seniors May Editor STEVEN ALAN HONLEY Senior Editor Be Just a Phone Call Away— SUSAN B. MAITRA Associate Editor The Senior Living Foundation may be SHAWN DORMAN able to help you or someone you know. AFSA News Editor Some examples of assistance are: FRANCESCA KELLY Ad & Circulation Manager ED MILTENBERGER N Home Health Care Art Director N Adult Day Care & Respite Care CARYN SUKO SMITH Advertising Intern N Prescription Drug Copayments JOSERELDA BOON N Transportation to Medical Appointments EDITORIAL BOARD N Durable Medical Equipment TED WILKINSON Chairman For more information, please contact the MAY G. BAPTISTA SENIOR LIVING FOUNDATION JOSEPH BRUNS OF THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE STEPHEN W. B UCK JULIE GIANELLONI CONNOR 1716 N Street, NW N Washington, DC 20036-2902 JEFF GIAUQUE Phone: (202) 887-8170 N Fax: (202) 872-9320 MARY E. GLANTZ E-Mail: [email protected] N Web Site: www.SLFoundation.org D. IAN HOPPER SPONSORED BY THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE PROTECTIVE ASSOCIATION GEORGE JONES LYNN W. R OCHE RIMA J. VYDMANTAS
THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published monthly with a combined July-August issue by the American Foreign Service Associa- tion (AFSA), a private, nonprofit organization. Material appearing herein represents the opin- ions of the writers and does not necessarily rep- resent the views of the Journal, the Editorial Board or AFSA. Writer queries and submissions are invited, preferably by e-mail. Journal sub- scription: AFSA members – $13 included in an- nual dues; others – $40. For foreign surface mail, add $18 per year; foreign airmail, $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mailing offices. Indexed by Public Affairs Information Services (PAIS). The Journal is not responsible for unsolicited manuscripts, photos or illustrations. Advertising inquiries are invited. The appearance of advertisements herein does not imply the endorsement of the services or goods offered. TELEPHONE: (202) 338-4045 FAX: (202) 338-8244 or (202) 338-6820 E-MAIL: [email protected] WEB: www.afsa.org; www.fsjournal.org © American Foreign Service Association, 2010. Printed in the U.S.A. Send address changes to: AFSA Attn: Address Change 2101 E Street N.W. Washington DC 20037-2990 Printed on 50-percent recycled paper, of which 10 percent is post-consumer waste.
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PRESIDENT’S VIEWS Exploring the New Frontiers of Diplomacy and Development BY SUSAN R. JOHNSON
The conventional diplomat dress the professional devel- tional State and USAID positions, both is fast becoming an endan- opment and training require- to carry out core diplomatic functions gered species, one that may be ments for diplomats and and to provide a training float. Attention teetering on the brink of irrel- development officials. is now rightly turning to the equally im- evance. It has become almost Old-style diplomacy, with portant related issue in which we all have trite to talk about the new its venerable conventions and a stake: updated and expanded profes- technologies, new players, structural rigidities, continues sional development and training for our new issues and the increas- to have some role in execut- Foreign Service across the board. ingly blurred lines between foreign and ing formal, state-to-state business, but AFSA supports and will participate in domestic policies — or whether today’s its space is narrowing and its impor- a new AAD study titled “Foreign Affairs foreign ministries and assistance agen- tance diminishing. To paraphrase a Leadership in the 21st Century: Recali- cies are relics of the past or the engines point Daryl Copeland makes eloquently brating the Diplomatic Profession.” We for a renaissance of diplomacy and de- in his book, Guerrilla Diplomacy, the plan to contribute to the development of velopment. new frontiers of diplomacy and devel- this study in several ways: by acting as a The forces for change are real; so is opment lie primarily in understanding conduit to our members to keep you in- the need for radical reform of Foreign and managing the effects of the colos- formed about the issues that the study Service structures, culture, recruitment, sal forces collectively known as global- addresses; by seeking your input and training and professionalization. Yet ization. perspectives on what sort of training and while the debate over how best to rein- Yet paradoxically, all too often that professional development you think is vent the Foreign Service to meet the phenomenon generates insecurity, splin- needed, and how and when it should be needs of the 21st century has generated ters politics and deepens cultural di- provided; and by working to see that the a slew of articles, studies and books, vides. What was once fixed and pre- study considers what the new require- today’s active-duty diplomats have been dictable is becoming diffuse and dy- ments are and what general training and relegated to the margins of the discus- namic. The business of diplomacy is professional development principles sion. done less and less in banquet halls, re- apply across the Foreign Service. If foreign affairs professionals want ceptions and closed meeting rooms and The world we knew is gone. The new to be part of the process of developing more and more in barrios, villages, cafés world is increasingly complex and dy- the right blueprint, we must engage in it and chatrooms. namic, and is coming at us fast. Is recali- seriously. We can start by answering the Foreign Service recruitment is now brating the diplomatic profession enough, question: What are the new and emerg- finally on a fast upswing as we play or do we need to be reinventing it? ing requirements for effective diplo- catchup for years of below-attrition hir- If you would like to participate in the macy and development? Only through ing. AFSA is proud to have actively sup- ongoing discussion of this issue and con- an open, inclusive discussion of those ported the development of the “Foreign tribute to AFSA’s participation in the requirements can we intelligently ad- Affairs Budget of the Future,” a blue-rib- AAD study on foreign affairs leadership bon panel report issued in October 2008 in the 21st century, please contact me at Susan R. Johnson is the president of the by the American Academy of Diplo- [email protected]. All comments and American Foreign Service Association. macy. It documents the need for addi- suggestions are welcome. ■
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LETTERS
The Sky’s Not Falling conclusion is reiterated in the January other developed countries where life Regarding AFSA’s objection to the FSJ, AFSA believes the sky is falling. expectancy is higher than ours and Senate’s proposed excise tax on high- This is based on a faulty assumption health costs a fraction of ours. If we’re cost health plans (“Priorities and Sur- that premiums will immediately begin as exceptional a nation as our politi- veys,” January AFSA News Retiree VP increasing at a projected 8-percent an- cians constantly proclaim, then surely column), I wonder if it polled its mem- nual rate. In fact, the thresholds are ad- we can find some way to provide bership to find a substantial majority justed upward by only 3 percent health care for all at less than $21,000 against the proposed excise tax. If so, I beginning in 2014. per family or $8,000 per individual. regret having missed the opportunity to Using the OPM figures, I calculate I would very much like the Govern- register my own opinion, for I am ap- that it will not be until 2019 that the an- ing Board to justify its lobbying objec- parently out of sync with my fellow nual cost of the average national single tive, both in terms of verifying that it AFSA members. plan reaches $8,000, by which time the was consistent with member prefer- If it did not consult the member- threshold will have risen to $10,400. ence and in terms of factual foundation. ship, then I find it unacceptable that And the cost of the average family plan This is close to a membership-deciding the AFSA Governing Board decided to won’t hit $21,000 until 2022, when the situation for me. A Journal subscrip- join other unions in putting its narrow, threshold will have risen to $29,900. tion is much cheaper than annual dues. parochial interests ahead of what I re- But if those assumptions are sus- Brent Schaeffer gard as the greater national goal of ex- tained through 2022, health costs will FSO, retired tending health coverage to all. constitute more than 31 percent of our Gaborone, Botswana and And believe me, those interests are economy. Do we not believe — do we Hendersonville, N.C. very narrow. After spending some time not consider it an absolute national pri- on the Office of Personnel Manage- ority if we are to remain economically Better Times for Public Affairs ment Web site (www.opm.gov), I found competitive — that we must succeed in I thought that Alexis Ludwig’s De- that fewer than 1 percent of the nearly slowing, if not reversing, the growth of cember Speaking Out column, “Restore 500 available family plans (matching health costs relative to the rest of the State’s Office of Public Communica- my personal circumstances) would cur- economy? tions,” was spot on. It certainly brought rently be subject to the excise tax. And Apart from the apparently very back memories of better times for pub- for the 17 national plans that AFSA shaky factual basis upon which AFSA lic affairs: Upon returning from an members are most likely to find suit- justifies its opposition to excise taxes, overseas assignment back in the 1970s able, the average total premium (gov- I’m particularly dismayed that it would and 1980s, one could contact the Bu- ernment plus individual contributions) want to obstruct this very viable way to reau of Public Affairs and volunteer for in 2010 is $5,277 for singles and $11,950 finance the extension of health care to speaking engagements and interviews for families. These figures are well all Americans — even if it hits a small with the media. below the excise tax thresholds of handful of us in the pocketbook. Because Seattle was my home leave $8,000 and $21,000 that would go into Many of us have spent the greater address, I volunteered for venues in effect in 2013, if the legislation is passed. part of our careers living in countries Washington, Idaho and Oregon. Wheth- Judging by the column in the No- where no one goes bankrupt as a result er it was a Kiwanis dinner, a radio call-in vember 2009 Retiree Newsletter, whose of medical mishaps, some of us in show or a newspaper interview, my au-
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L ETTERS You Are Our Eyes & Ears! dience always seemed interested in my was an even greater difference in our experiences at posts where I had ranks: John was head of a very large and served. More importantly, however, on active CIA station, while I was a green Dear Readers: many occasions the people I met in the third secretary on my first assignment Pacific Northwest would remark that with State. Somehow those differences In order to produce a high- quality product, the FSJ depends they were pleased to discover that one did not matter. John and his wife imme- on the revenue it earns from of their own was a member of the For- diately befriended us and included us in advertising. You can help eign Service. They had always heard their family’s many adventures. We re- with this. that only the sons and daughters of the mained close friends until his death. Please let us know the names East Coast elite were in the Service. At John’s request, mourners ended of companies that have provided In recent years, the managers of his funeral service with a lively rendi- good service to you — a hotel, State’s public affairs program appear to tion of the British World War II song, insurance company, auto have developed the attitude that it’s “Wish Me Luck as You Wave Me dealership, or other concern. A referral from our readers okay for the Foreign Service to present Goodbye.” That was a classy exit for a is the best entrée! America’s policies to the world, but its very classy public servant, and a won- members should be kept away from the derful person. Ed Miltenberger American public. That may be why James A.Williams Advertising & Circulation Manager there is no budget to do public affairs FE-MC, retired Tel: (202) 944-5507 E-mail: [email protected] the old-fashioned way. Arlington, Va. David Reuther FSO, retired USAID Needs Fairfax, Va. Language Training, Too Thank you for the December Pres- Remembering John Leavitt ident’s Views column addressing For- I would like to inform readers of the eign Service readiness, especially the death of John H. Leavitt, a colleague language shortfall. and friend to many of us in the Foreign I am a new FSO with USAID and Service community. have noticed that many USAID posi- John died on Dec. 31 in New Hamp- tions are not language-designated. I shire at the age of 91. We knew him agree with AFSA President Susan John- mainly from his 15 years of service at son that language proficiency is critical U.S. embassies in Tehran, Athens, An- to the success of every Foreign Service The Foreign Service Journal kara and Tel Aviv during the 1950s, member, since we all share some level welcomes brief, focused letters 1960s and 1970s. Whether at a country of diplomatic duty and representation. from readers. (In general, 200 team meeting, on the tennis court, at a For example, I am a technical officer diplomatic reception or at the bridge who can expect to interact with govern- to 400 words is a good target.) table, John was a formidable partner ment officials and folks in civil society. All submissions are subject to and opponent. He was also an excellent I encourage AFSA to support the editing, and reflect the opinions friend. creation of more language-designated of the writers, not necessarily My wife, Anne, and I met John positions for USAID (accompanied by the views of the Journal, the Ed- more than 40 years ago while serving in language training at FSI), in addition to itorial Board or AFSA. Ankara. There was a great difference what the association is already support- in our respective ages: John had been a ing for the State Department. Please send your letters to: Royal Air Force bomber pilot — his Palak Shah [email protected]. targets included the battleship Tirpitz FSO, USAID and the Eagle’s Nest in Berchtesgaden Foreign Service Institute — while I was still in diapers. There Arlington, Va. ■
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CYBERNOTES
A Thoughtful Survey ranked nearly 400 organizations. • Brookings Institution (top think- In the University of Pennsylvania’s “Policymakers in the legislative and tank in the world) latest “Global Go-to Think-Tank Rank- executive branches of government • Fraser Institute (Canada and ings,” released Jan. 28, the Brookings throughout the developed and devel- Mexico) Institution came in first among more oping world face the common problem • Chatham House (Western Eu- than 6,300 think-tanks evaluated world- of bringing expert knowledge to bear rope) wide. The annual report, which began on governmental decision-making,” • Carnegie Moscow Center (East- in 2006, places London-based Chat- says McGann. “I am confident that the ern and Central Europe) ham House first among think-tanks international experts group and peer • Fundación Getulio Vargas (Latin outside the U.S. nomination and selection process that America) James G. McGann, assistant direc- was constituted for this study has en- • Carnegie Middle East Center tor of the university’s International Re- abled us to create the most authorita- (Middle East) lations Program and director of the tive list of high-performance think- • South African Institute of Inter- university’s Think-Tanks and Civil So- tanks in the world.” national Affairs (Southern Africa) ciety Program, compiled the results Here is a sampling of the leading • Japan Institute of International from a global survey of 300 scholars think-tanks for 2009 in various cate- Affairs (Asia) and experts. The panel nominated and gories: A copy of the full report is available for download at www.ony.unu.edu/.
50 Years Ago... U.S. Iran Policy: Think Twice ne may cite three reasons why the conduct of foreign rela- In early February, on the eve of the Otions has never been and is not today generally regarded in 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revo- the United States, at least, as a genuine profession. The first is lution, some voices urging caution and that throughout the greater part of our history foreign relations an alternate point of view were heard has, in contrast to the experience of most nations in the world, above the din of rocket-launchings and been essentially of secondary importance to the national interest. Secondly, opposition demonstrations in Iran and our professional Foreign Service, developing under the shadow of this strong the drumbeat of Western advocates of traditional attitude, has had to struggle against a built-in inferiority complex. “regime change” and tough, new sanc- We have instinctively felt that we were trying to corner the market on some- tions against Tehran in Washington. thing that any Tom, Dick or Harry could do. This apologetic attitude has been The Program on International Pol- aggravated by the third factor: the difficulty of describing clearly the profes- icy Attitudes at the University of Mary- sional nature of the profession. The conduct of foreign relations cannot be land issued the results of a study that reduced to algebraic formulae or scientifically classifiable symptoms and shattered several widely held myths. remedies. PIPA sought to address the hypotheses —– From “Is the Foreign Service a Profession?” by James K. Penfield, that Iranian President Mahmoud Ah- FSJ, March 1960. madinejad did not win the June 12 election and that the Iranian people
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C YBERNOTES
book, Reset: Iran, Turkey and Amer- Site of the Month: A New Online Center for ica’s Future, due out in early June, he Foreign Policy Discussion challenges the popular belief that it’s in On Feb. 1, WorldAffairsDaily.org, a project of the World Affairs journal, debuted our best interest to cultivate a weak, if as an online center for discussion of foreign policy. As James Denton, publisher and not destabilized Iran. editor of the online division, puts it, this is “a genuinely international site that allows Like Turkey, he argues, Iran shares any English-language reader to understand more fully the often unsettling events and long-term strategic interests as well as complex issues that dominate the world’s headlines and debates.” a democratic impulse with the U.S. On a daily basis, this attractive and accessible site presents a selection of official Moreover, Kinzer points out, as a Shi- statements, news stories and think-tank reports from around the world. Thus, on any ite nation, Iran has a deep-seated aver- given day, readers will be able to see how a particular story is reported and com- sion toward radical Sunni movements mented upon in, for example, the Washington Post, France 24, Al-Jazeera, RIA like the Taliban. Novesti, the Islamic Republic News Agency, “Frontline,” Afghanistan’s Quqnoos Web In his widely acclaimed 2003 polit- site and other media. “We know there is a global community,” says Denton. “Our ical study, All the Shah’s Men: An idea is to allow everyone to hear the conversations taking place in its various neigh- American Coup and the Roots of Mid- borhoods.” dle East Terror, Kinzer argued that the In addition to selections from the bimonthly World Affairs journal, the site show- anti-American rage that consumes cases American bloggers from across the political spectrum, as well as influential Iranian leaders was incited 50 years mainstream and dissident voices from Europe, the Middle East, Russia and else- ago when the CIA destroyed the na- where. The aim is to facilitate frank, real-time conversations among opinion-makers tion’s first — and so far, only — exper- at home and abroad about the ideas and events that define our era. “If we succeed,” iment with liberal democracy after less says Denton, “when our viewers go to www.worldaffairsdaily.org, they will be look- than a decade. ing at a rough draft of history.” Democracy will flower again in World Affairs, the journal, is published in partnership with the American Peace Iran, Kinzer told the Inquirer, if only Society. Issued intermittently since its founding in 1937, the publication was re- “the U.S. can resist the temptation to launched in a new format in 2008. intervene and can allow events to take their own course.” perceive their government as illegiti- that the Iranian public is in a pre-rev- mate. It also explored the assumption olutionary state of mind,” says Steven Google v. China: Tough Love? that the opposition represents a move- Kull, director of PIPA. A new row over Internet censorship ment favoring a substantially different The complete report is available on- in China erupted in mid-January with posture toward the United States. line at www.worldpublicopinion. Google, Inc.’s announcement that it The PIPA study analyzed multiple org/pipa/. planned to stop censoring searches on polls of the Iranian public from differ- Another view of the situation in its Google.cn network, and was con- ent sources conducted during the Tehran not often heard in the U.S. sidering leaving China altogether if the three months following the June elec- comes from veteran New York Times problem could not be resolved. tion, including one poll conducted foreign correspondent, historian and Only one of several disputes that by WorldPublicOpinion.org, which is Northwestern University professor have recently raised the temperature managed by PIPA. Stephen Kinzer, who told a Philadel- of Sino-American relations, this one The study did not prove that there phia audience in late January that has pushed the twin issues of cyberse- were no election irregularities; but nei- America’s ideal ally in the Middle East curity and Internet freedom back up to ther did it support the belief that a ma- is not Jordan or a “new-and-improved” the top of the U.S. foreign policy jority rejected Ahmadinejad. It also Iraq — and certainly not Saudi Arabia agenda. found little evidence to support the — but Iran. In her Jan. 21 address on “Internet other assumptions. “Our analysis sug- Kinzer was interviewed by the Freedom,” Secretary of State Hillary gests that it would not be prudent to Philadelphia Inquirer (www.philly. Clinton reiterated the Obama admin- base U.S. policy on the assumption com/inquirer/magazine). In his new istration’s determination to “strengthen
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C YBERNOTES
ust as steel can be used to build hospitals or machine guns, or nuclear Jpower can either energize a city or destroy it, modern information networks and the technologies they support can be harnessed for good or for ill. The same networks that help organize movements for freedom also enable al-Qaida to spew hatred and incite violence against the innocent. And technologies with the potential to open up access to government and promote transparency can also be hijacked by governments to crush dissent and deny human rights. — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, speaking on Internet freedom at The Newseum, Washington, D.C., Jan. 21, www.state.gov/secretary/rm/ 2010/01/135519.htm
global cybersecurity” and outlined a (“Technology Companies’ Business strategy for working with repressive Practices in Internet-restricting Coun- regimes on the topic (www.state.gov). tries”); and one by the House Foreign Clinton referred to the president’s ap- Affairs Committee (“The Google pointment of a cyberspace policy coor- Predicament: Transforming U.S. Cy- dinator, and the ongoing work of the berspace Policy to Advance Democracy, State Department’s Global Internet Security and Trade”). Freedom Task Force, established in Earlier, with an endorsement from 2006, as well as initiatives at the United House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Nations and in other multilateral fora Chris Smith, R-N.J., called on Jan 14 for to put cybersecurity on the world’s lawmakers to take up his “Global On- agenda. line Freedom Act” — legislation that National Intelligence Director Eric has been stalled in Congress for several Blair underlined the pervasive threat years. to critical computerized infrastructure Meanwhile, Google has joined the in testimony to the Senate Select Com- National Security Agency in efforts to mittee on Intelligence in early Febru- further analyze the cyberattacks from ary, emphasizing that both government within China aimed at gaining access and private industry networks are al- to the Gmail accounts of human rights ready “under persistent and subtle as- activists that prompted the latest sault.” Among unclassified sources, standoff with Beijing. The company the Center for Strategic and Interna- is attempting to negotiate a resolution tional Studies’ running compilation of to the impasse as the stakes in China cyberattack incidents, “Cyber Events are large and complex. Beijing’s re- Since 2006,” is an eye-opener (www. treat in October on its “Green Dam” csis.org). plan for mandatory built-in surveil- To examine the issues, no less than lance on all PCs sold in the country three sets of hearings have been sched- gives hope for progress (see “Story uled: one by the Congressional-Execu- Not Available in China;” November tive Commission on China, which Cybernotes). ■ monitors human rights and the devel- opment of commercial law in the PRC; This edition of Cybernotes was com- one by the Senate Judiciary Subcom- piled by Senior Editor Susan Brady mittee on Human Rights and the Law Maitra.
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SPEAKING OUT A Real Reset Button for U.S.-Russian Relations
BY THOMPSON BUCHANAN
n March 6, 2009, Secretary dance with Article 5 of the NATO of State Hillary Rodham It is imperative to Treaty. It also encourages the leader- OClinton presented Russian devise a formula to ship of those nations to overestimate Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with a insulate the Near the support they can expect from the token of her commitment to improv- West for their own domestic agendas. ing relations: a “reset” button. Al- Abroad from a We may be sure that if Moscow though the word engraved on the gift, damaging rivalry perceives any state on its border to be “peregruzka,” actually means “over- between Moscow closely allied with the West, it will do charge” or “overload” (depending on and NATO. what it can to destabilize that state — the context), Lavrov gamely pressed and it is in a much better position to the button alongside Clinton. do so than we are to defend it. We are Just four months later, however, not dealing with the prostrate, rela- Vice President Joe Biden used a tively cooperative Russia led by Boris speech to the Georgian Parliament to age control, reassuring Russia that the Yeltsin, but a bitter, much stronger proclaim a U.S. commitment to bring- United States still regards it as a great power that feels the West took advan- ing both Georgia and Ukraine into the power and is not trying to use the tage of its weakness during the 1990s North Atlantic Treaty Organization. newly independent states of the to extract concessions, without offer- In so doing, he may have intended to “Near Abroad” to contain it. But if ing anything tangible in return. And it blunt attacks from Republicans by this is some “good cop, bad cop” strat- is fiercely determined to defend what mimicking earlier denunciations of egy for dealing with Moscow, it un- it sees as its national security interests the “Evil Empire,” such as those for- derestimates their intelligence and in the Near Abroad. mer Vice President Richard Cheney their visceral toughness. Speaking as With this in mind, the Obama ad- and former President Ronald Reagan a diplomat who spent nine years in ministration’s declarations and actions routinely delivered. Moscow, both before and after the should explicitly reassure Moscow But while such rhetoric still res- collapse of communism, I can attest that: onates with much of the American to the folly of assuming that we will • We are as concerned as Russia is public, it does not serve our larger na- get our way on these issues just be- about the prospect of instability in the tional interests. At a minimum, the cause we’re the last superpower region. vice president reinforced the skepti- standing. • The only interest Americans cism of nationalist Russians that have in the Near Abroad is in pro- America sincerely wants closer ties. The Near Abroad and NATO moting genuine sovereignty and pros- He also complicated the task of our Words have consequences. Our perity. negotiators on a variety of critical is- pledge to help Georgia and Ukraine • It is in Russia’s own interest to do sues by inducing Moscow to wonder bring their military forces up to speed everything it can to demonstrate that who really speaks for the Obama ad- to qualify for NATO membership im- it wants to turn over a new leaf in re- ministration. plies a commitment of support in the lations with its neighbors. Sec. Clinton performed deft dam- event of conflict with Russia in accor- • We want Moscow to play a major
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S PEAKING O UT
role in ensuring peace and stability withdraw its support for NATO ex- along its borders, and in helping us pansion into Georgia and Ukraine, address major problems throughout Regrettably, Russia particularly in light of its decision to the world. abandon plans to install missile de- The issue is not whether we sup- still believes that the fense systems in Central Europe. But port the sovereignty of these newly we should at least stop talking about independent states. Of course we only real security it and leave it to the Europeans to do. But let us identify the wisest make clear that the idea is a non- ways to protect both their interests lies in dominating starter. and ours. At an appropriate moment in on- its neighbors. going talks over some related issue Some Progress on like the Conventional Armed Forces Resetting Relations in Europe Treaty, perhaps our envoys A number of positive steps have could informally float the idea of neu- been taken by both sides to “reset” re- tralizing the Near Abroad as an area lations, although each side’s under- there has been some talk of broader of competition, with a clear under- standing of what that means is rather cooperation there. standing that this would mean non-in- different. For some Russians, at least, More discouraging, while the at- terference by either side in the it means that the Americans should mosphere for arms control negotia- domestic politics of the region. accept Moscow’s positions on a whole tions has been positive, the two sides Of course, we would need to per- range of issues. And that is certainly remain stymied by technical issues re- suade Tbilisi and Kyiv that their secu- not what we mean by the term. lated to maintaining a balance of rity would be best protected by an A first positive step was President power — a consideration that has al- understanding between Moscow and Barack Obama’s decision to rethink ways bedeviled these talks. Washington. Toward that end, Geor- the policy of missile defense installa- gia, Ukraine and Russia should be en- tions in Eastern Europe, one that Setting Realistic Priorities couraged to discuss their overall lacked logic in the eyes of our NATO Regrettably, Moscow shows no economic relations, which are in so allies and many Americans. In- signs of abandoning its traditional be- many ways complementary and have evitably, the Central Europeans ac- lief that the only real security lies in been historically profitable. cused us of giving in to Moscow, and domination of its neighbors. But that As the dominant power in the re- the U.S. political opposition quickly only makes it more imperative for us gion, Moscow should take the initia- labeled the administration “soft on na- to devise a formula to insulate the tive in pursuit of better relations, tional security.” But the decision con- border states from a damaging rivalry removing obstacles it has imposed in tributed to the relative success of the between Russia and NATO. areas like the import of Georgian U.S.-Russia summit in July 2009, and Formal arrangements that ad- wine and vegetables. Concessions are to Moscow’s more positive attitude dressed the problem of conflicting also needed on the part of both since then. territorial interests in the past — like Gazprom and Kyiv regarding the tran- On the issue of Iran, President Austrian neutrality, or the old Rapacki sit of oil and gas through Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev has appeared Plan for Central Europe — are proba- In addition, the U.S. should pro- more forthcoming than Prime Minis- bly non-starters. But we should at least vide targeted foreign assistance. The ter Vladimir Putin, accepting at least try to come to some understanding aim of these steps would be to the possibility that sanctions may be with Moscow that the Near Abroad is demonstrate that there are concrete necessary if Tehran continues to move not a sphere of influence for any single benefits to be gained from Russo- ahead with its nuclear program. state, but a showcase for joint concern American cooperation in the region. Moscow is also allowing U.S. troops and mutual restraint. On the issues of Abkhazia and and supplies to transit Russia in sup- It would be politically suicidal for South Ossetia, we need to encourage port of the war in Afghanistan, and the Obama administration to formally Tbilisi to recognize that it would re-
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quire war to impose Georgian rule a dead-end and dangerous policy in over the separate ethnic populations the Near Abroad. ■ of the two enclaves, which already ex- The U.S. should pelled local Georgians. Moreover, Thompson Buchanan was a Foreign any effort to invade these territories give priority to Service officer from 1955 to 1981, serv- would provide Russia with a pretext ing as deputy chief of mission in Bu- for destroying Georgia. improving relations with rundi, Gabon and Norway, among The realistic hope is that, over time, other assignments. His Russian ex- there can be a slow revival of com- Moscow over sticking pertise dates from 1948, when he merce and dialogue among Abkhazia, worked for the Office of Intelligence South Ossetia and Tbilisi, possibly lead- with a dead-end, Research at State. He later served ing to some form of federation in the three tours in Russia, including assign- future. But this will only happen when dangerous policy. ments as political counselor and consul Moscow decides that peace in the re- general in Leningrad. In post-commu- gion serves its larger interests. nist Russia, he interviewed refugees for Critics of the administration will the Immigration and Naturalization undoubtedly complain that America Service and worked on aid projects. As will lose face if it backs away from the terms of the greater U.S. national in- a member of DACOR and the Cosmos commitment to support NATO mem- terest, it is more important to improve Club, he has sponsored numerous lec- bership for Tbilisi and Kyiv. But in relations with Russia than to insist on tures on Russia and Central Asia.
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IRAQ, IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES Laszlo Kubinyi
THE ROUTE TO DIRECT TALKS BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN COULD RUN THROUGH BAGHDAD.
BY SELIG S. HARRISON
he 2003 American invasion of Iraq aroused both anxiety and hope in Iran. The advent of U.S. military forces and bases on its western border posed a potential threat to its security. At the same time, the destruction of the Sunni-dominated Saddam Hussein dictatorship stirred expectations that the Shiite majority in Iraq would comeT into its own, at last, after five centuries of Sunni minority rule, and that Iraq would tilt toward Iran after U.S. forces left.
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Seven years later, the Obama ad- For nearly five centuries, treaty that defined the boundary ministration remains committed to between Safavid Persia and the ad- the withdrawal of all U.S. forces Iran has been hoping Sunni vancing Ottoman Turks, who push- from Iraq by the end of 2011. How- ed Persia out of what was to be- ever, major uncertainties remain minority rule would end come the modern state of Iraq. concerning our future role there As Richard D. Frye observes in and how it will affect Iran. in Iraq, allowing Tehran The Golden Age of Persia, “The sep- Two key emerging issues have aration of eastern and western Iran special importance in Iranian eyes. to regain some of its is evident, and throughout Iran’s One is whether the U.S. Air Force history the western part of the land will be able to continue using the old influence. has been frequently more closely bases it has developed in Iraq to de- connected with the lowlands of ploy long-range bombers capable of Mesopotamia than with the rest of striking Iran. The other is whether the United States will the plateau to the east of the central deserts.” continue to tolerate the political dominance of Tehran-ori- Before 1639, Persia had extensive influence in Mesopo- ented Shiite political forces in Iraq, as it has done since the tamia through local Shiite principalities. The Shia religious 2005 elections, or will work, instead, with Saudi Arabia to universe embraced parts of both Persia and Mesopotamia, contain Iranian influence in Baghdad. Washington’s posi- and the Shia faithful commuted between religious centers tion on these little-discussed issues could well prove to be on both sides, just as they do today. (An estimated four of critical importance in its ongoing effort to negotiate a million Iranians visited Karbala and Najaf in Iraq last year modus vivendi with Iran. and some two million Iraqis visited Qom in Iran.) After The centrality of Iraq in Iranian attitudes toward the 1639, the Turks and, later, the British installed a succes- United States was underlined to me repeatedly during sion of Sunni puppet regimes in Iraq. Then came Saddam three visits to Tehran in 2007 and 2008. On one of these Hussein’s Sunni dictatorship and his invasion of Iran in trips, I attended a four-hour seminar with 15 Iranian spe- 1980, launched with U.S. help and encouragement. cialists on Iraq from different government agencies, What Vaezi’s reference to 1639 meant was that for arranged at my request. nearly five centuries, Iran has been hoping the day would “You know, we’ve been waiting for this moment since come when Sunni minority rule would end in Baghdad, 1639,” commented Mahmoud Vaezi, a former deputy for- and Tehran would get back some of its old influence. eign minister who now directs the Center for Strategic Re- search, a think-tank affiliated with the Expediency Coun- In Friendly Hands? cil, a government body headed by former President Ali During the Foreign Ministry seminar, S.A. Niknam, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. I didn’t know what had hap- who had been chargé d’affaires in the Iranian embassy in pened in 1639, but soon learned that it was the year in Baghdad for five years during the Iran-Iraq War, ex- which the Treaty of Qasr-i-Shirin was signed. This was the claimed: “How can you accuse us of ‘interfering’ in Iraq? You have come from 6,000 miles away with 160,000 sol- Selig S. Harrison visited Iran in June 2007 and in Febru- diers. We are an immediate neighbor with a 1,000-mile ary and June 2008. As South Asia bureau chief of the border and intimate historical, religious and economic ties Washington Post and, later, as a senior associate of the going back centuries. You helped Saddam against us in a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, he did re- war that cost us more than 300,000 lives, so naturally we search there before the 1979 revolution and authored a want to be sure that Iraq is in friendly hands.” study of its ethnic tensions, In Afghanistan’s Shadow: By a “friendly” Iraq, Iran means one dominated by its Baluch Nationalism and Soviet Temptations (CEIP, 1980), Shiite co-religionists, who make up about 62 percent of as well as four other books on Asian affairs and U.S.-Asian the population. Thus, Tehran was delighted when the relations. He is a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson United States, prodded by United Nations mediator International Center and director of the Asia Program at Lakhdar Brahimi and Iraq’s pre-eminent Shiite cleric, the Center for International Policy. Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali al-Sistani, bowed to demands
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for elections in 2005 on terms that Tehran has carefully avoided could lead to a rebirth of al-Qaida assured the victory of the Shiite ma- activity in Iraq. And in Iranian eyes, jority. committing to any single the Sunni Awakening has aroused Then and now, Iran has carefully deep suspicion that Washington is avoided committing fully to any fac- faction in Iraq’s internal pursuing a conscious “divide and tion in Iraq’s internal Shiite power rule” strategy designed to build up struggles. The Ministry of Intelli- Shiite power struggles. a Sunni counterweight to Shiite gence and Security, also known as power. VEVAK, and other Iranian intelli- The death of Supreme Council gence agencies have assisted militias maintained by both leader al-Hakim on Aug. 26, 2009, accentuated a power the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the vehicle of the struggle within the Shiite leadership that could affect the Shiite mercantile and middle classes, and Moqtada al- stability of the Baghdad government, but it is not likely to Sadr’s urban populist movement. They have also worked weaken Iran’s political clout in Baghdad. Iran orchestrated closely with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s smaller the creation of a new Shiite coalition at a meeting last Au- Daawa Party, and have gradually increased their influence gust that united the ISCI, al-Sadr’s forces and the Tanzim- in the internal security agencies of his ISCI-linked regime. al-Iraq branch of Daawa in the new United Iraqi Alliance. Soon after its 2003 invasion, the United States spon- sored the creation of the National Intelligence Service, “A Disgraceful Pact” headed by a longtime anti-Saddam CIA ally, Mohammed Al-Maliki, like many other Shiite political leaders of his Shahwani, a Sunni. Al-Maliki countered by installing an generation, spent the Iran-Iraq War years (1980-1988) in Iran-trained VEVAK protégé, Sheerwan al-Waeli, as head exile in Iran and has longstanding ties with VEVAK. Ini- of the Ministry of National Security, and succeeded in re- tially, he had Tehran’s blessing when he became prime min- placing Shahwani with his own man in August 2009. ister, but relations suffered during the protracted struggle Iranian concerns about the direction of U.S. policy have with the Bush administration in 2007 and 2008 over the focused on the so-called “Sunni Awakening” that the terms of the security agreement under which the United George W. Bush administration promoted after the 2005 States has pledged to withdraw all of its combat forces. parliamentary elections. This amounted to the employment When a draft U.S.-Iraq accord without a withdrawal of some 91,000 mercenaries in Sunni militias under U.S. timetable was signed on March 17, 2008, it remained a control in a program aimed at improving security that cost well-kept secret until nationalist critics within al-Maliki’s an estimated $150 million per year at its peak. Each fighter inner circle leaked it to Iranian diplomats and to the Iraqi was nominally paid $300 a month. But as Steven Simon media. The reaction in Tehran was explosive. On May 11, points out in his article in the May/June 2008 Foreign Af- 2008, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline daily fairs, the Sunni tribal sheiks involved took “as much as 20 newspaper Kayhan, attacked the agreement in a vitriolic percent of every payment to a former insurgent,” which signed editorial titled “Iraq on the Edge.” He handed a meant that “commanding 200 fighters could be worth over copy to me during an hourlong interview this past June. a hundred thousand dollars a year for a tribal chief.” “If you want to know what has been happening,” he Because the Sunni militias posed a direct challenge to said, “I suggest you read this.” Shariatmadari is the “Per- the predominantly Shiite army that al-Maliki was building sonal Representative of the Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah up, ISCI leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim complained that Ali Khamenei, and is seen as his media spokesman. “weapons should be in the hands of the government only, “How is it,” the editorial asked, “that the Maliki govern- and the government alone should decide who gets them. ment took the first steps toward signing such a disgraceful The alternative will be perpetual civil war.” pact in the first place?” The United States, it said, is using Pressure from al-Maliki eventually led to the termina- the treaty to “sow the seeds of discord” between al-Maliki tion of the program in return for promises that the demo- and his coalition partner, al-Hakim, so that “the U.S. can bilized fighters would be absorbed into his army. But this put pro-American individuals in charge. It is amazing that has yet to happen on any significant scale. In Baghdad, al-Maliki failed to see such a conspiracy coming.” In a clear the principal legacy of the program is Sunni outrage that warning to the prime minister, the editorial added that if
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the treaty is implemented, Iraqis What remains missing And on Nov. 18, 2008, after hag- would replace his government with gling over seven drafts, a final ver- “another Islamist government.” from the U.S. posture is a sion of the agreement was adopted, Al-Maliki was summoned to providing for the full withdrawal of Tehran for a three-day dressing- readiness to acknowledge U.S. combat forces by Dec. 31, down (June 7-9, 2008) that led to his 2011. To cover its retreat, the announcement, on June 13 in Am- that Tehran, too, has White House maintained that the man, that negotiations with the success of the “surge” policy had United States had reached “a dead security concerns. enabled Iraq to stand on its own, re- end and a deadlock.” Informants in leasing pent-up nationalist opposi- government-affiliated think-tanks tion to the presence of foreign told me that he had had “difficult” meetings, as one put it, soldiers. This, in turn, had supposedly compelled al-Ma- with Khamenei and with the Revolutionary Guard gener- liki to insist on a withdrawal timetable so that his oppo- als who oversee Iraqi policy. Soon thereafter, Iranian news- nents could not use nationalism against him in the papers reported, al-Maliki’s defense minister signed a forthcoming elections. But what this explanation omitted mutual security accord with his Iranian counterpart. It has was the crucial role that Iran had played in al-Maliki’s con- never been made public. version. The deadlock between Baghdad and Washington Alireza Sheikhattar, who was first deputy foreign min- ended when the Bush administration agreed that the pro- ister when I visited Tehran in June 2008, told me that Iran jected security agreement would have a “time horizon.” would not allow the continued operation of U.S. air bases
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that could make Iraq “a platform for The principal legacy of the bases two squadrons of F-16 fighter- harming the security of Iran and bombers, each capable of carrying 24 other neighbors. Why should the U.S. surge in Iraq is Sunni tons of bombs. Balad has also been a U.S. have air bases in Iraq?” Bagh- launching pad for Qatar-based B-1 dad can take care of its own defense, outrage that could lead bombers and Predator unmanned he said, “and the Iraqis should have a espionage surveillance aircraft. real air force of their own. Why are to a rebirth of al-Qaida Spread out over 15 square miles, they prohibited from having more Balad was second only to Heathrow than token aircraft and related facili- activity there. Airport in London in the volume of ties, even for civil aviation? They are its air traffic at the height of the war not poor. They can purchase fighters in Iraq. The expansion and mod- and have their own aircraft for both internal and external ernization of the base has been steadily proceeding, with security.” $87 million allocated to new construction in the fiscal 2007 budget and $58.3 million more in 2008. This has included Addressing Security Concerns hardening its two 11,000-foot runways, which will now be Wouldn’t this pose a potential security threat to Iran? serviceable until 2014, and installing the latest lighting Not if Iraq has a sovereign, democratic government, technology for night operations. “We’re good now for as Sheikhattar said. “There is an absolute majority in favor of long as we need to run it,” the Chief Air Force Engineer Iran” now that the Shiite government is in control, he as- there, Lt. Col. Scott Hoover, told Associated Press corre- sured me. spondent Charles J. Hanley. “Ten years?” Hanley asked. Iraq is now seeking to buy 108 aircraft through 2011, in- “I’d say so,” he replied. cluding 36 late-model F-16 fighter-bombers from the The master plan for Balad’s expansion has served as a United States. So far the Pentagon has not made a deci- model for three other air bases near the Iranian border: sion on the F-16s, but it has agreed to sell 24 U.S. attack Al-Asad, where $76 million in new construction is under helicopters and six C-130 transport planes to Baghdad. way, Tallil and Al Kut. As if in reply to Sheikhattar, Admiral William J. Fallon, While denying that the United States wants “perma- the former commander of the U.S. Central Command, em- nent bases,” Defense Department officials acknowledge phasized in a July 20, 2008, New York Times article that that they hope for “long-term access.” And Articles 5, 6 “control of Iraqi airspace” would be an “important compo- and 7 of the security accord explicitly envisage a substan- nent of the security agreement that would require clear- tial U.S. presence and pre-positioned equipment and headed negotiations.” The final draft of the agreement gave weaponry. Iran, for its part, will no doubt be carefully “surveillance and control over Iraqi air space” to Baghdad. monitoring the type of long-range aircraft and surveillance At the same time, Article 9, Section 2 of the accord capabilities that turn up at the bases along its borders and permits U.S. aircraft “to overfly and conduct airborne re- whether they are deployed there on a regular basis. fueling;” Articles 5 and 6 envisage the continued U.S. op- The Iranians I met were reconciled to the continued eration of bases by allowing U.S. forces the “access and use” presence of U.S. military personnel for training purposes of “some necessary facilities” after the withdrawal of com- following the withdrawal of combat forces, and even to bat forces; and Article 7 envisages the pre-positioning of U.S. participation in operations against al-Qaida and other equipment under U.S. control. The provision for airborne Sunni extremist groups. But the future of the air bases will refueling was a major focus of contention in the negotia- clearly be highly contentious and could well affect the tions on the accord, because it is viewed in Tehran as giv- Obama administration’s diplomatic effort to rule out an ing the U.S. Air Force unrestricted operational latitude that Iranian nuclear weapons capability. could be used for bombing or surveillance missions in Iran. Sheikhattar, now the Iranian ambassador to Germany, Mutual Interests points in particular to the giant Balad Air Base north of What has been missing so far in the U.S. posture is a Baghdad, just 74 miles away from the Iranian border and readiness to acknowledge that Tehran, too, has security 429 miles from Tehran, where the U.S. Air Force currently concerns. This is especially clear in terms of the nuclear
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issue. It was a promise of security Shared opposition to any has already sought to distance itself guarantees that led to Tehran’s will- from the active support for “regime ingness to suspend all uranium en- breakup of Iraq could provide change” reflected in its predeces- richment in November 2004, at the sor’s overt democracy promotion start of talks with the European a basis for U.S.-Iranian and its covert support of disaffected Union on a permanent ban. And it ethnic minorities. Nevertheless, was the Bush administration’s un- cooperation in Baghdad. Iranian leaders have continued to willingness to join in such guaran- warn against U.S. support for a “Vel- tees that led to the breakdown of vet Revolution” amid the unrest that the talks and the resumption of enrichment. has followed the contested June 2009 elections. And it con- The language of the joint declaration that launched the tinues to accuse the United States of supporting Kurdish negotiations was unambiguous. “A mutually acceptable separatists as well as Jundullah, a Baluch separatist move- agreement,” it said, would not only provide “objective guar- ment. antees” that Iran’s nuclear program is “exclusively for Speaking at Bijar in Iranian Kurdistan on May 12, 2009, peaceful purposes” but would “equally provide firm com- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that mitments on security issues.” “unfortunately, across our borders, our western borders … In addition to security guarantees relating specifically to money, arms and organization are being used by the Amer- military issues, Iran would be likely to seek broader guar- icans in fighting the Islamic Republic’s system.” Many jour- antees in future negotiations ruling out U.S. support for nalists have long reported that Mossad, the Israeli overthrow of its government. The Obama administration intelligence agency, gives arms to Pejak, an Iranian Kur-
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dish separatist group. And New Tehran does not want Saddam Hussein. Iraq will now be, Yorker reporter Jon Lee Anderson willy-nilly, closer to Iran than to any interviewed a senior Kurdish official Iraqi Kurds to break away other external power, and it would in 2008 who said that Pejak operates be self-defeating for the United out of bases in Iraqi Kurdistan with and link up with Kurds States to fly in the face of this reality “covert U.S. support” to conduct by aligning with Sunni interests in raids in Iran. in Iran and Turkey. Baghdad. Precisely because Tehran fears To be sure, the United States Kurdish separatism, Iran shares the does have a moral obligation to do goal of a unified Iraq with the United States. It does not what it can to minimize persecution of Sunnis. But there is want to see the Iraqi Kurds break away and link up with the no escaping the hard reality that they will now have to ad- Kurds in Iran and Turkey. just to Shia dominance, just as the Shias did for so long This shared opposition to the balkanization of Iraq and a under Sunni rule. mutual interest in promoting its economic stability provide Ray Takeyh, a leading Iran scholar who has advised the the basis for U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Baghdad — but Obama administration, puts it well. “The door to walk into only if Washington is sensitive to Iranian security concerns a larger negotiation between the United States and Iran and recognizes that Tehran views the maintenance of a would be through Iraq,” he said, “where there is some co- “friendly” regime in Iraq as essential to its security. incidence of interests. But you can’t do that if your declared George W. Bush sharply limited U.S. options when he policy is to prevent a country next door from having any in- ended five centuries of minority Sunni rule by deposing fluence in the country that is right there.” ■
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ACHIEVING CLOSURE ON IRAQ’S PREWAR WMD Laszlo Kubinyi
UNDERSTANDING WHY IT TURNED OUT SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD NO WMD PROVIDES INSIGHTS USEFUL IN OTHER SITUATIONS.
BY CHARLES A. DUELFER
even years after the United States removed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein from power, a wide range of accepted “truths” persist concerning whether Baghdad actually possessed weapons of mass destruction. Many of these are wrong; others are partially accurate, but represent little more than “bumper-sticker” characterization of a pivotal,S but quite complicated, issue. In some ways, current misunderstandings about Iraq’s WMD are as off the mark as the prewar assumptions, but in different ways.
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Many factors contribute to these We now know that there Unintended Consequences persistent fallacies. Misconceptions When international inspections and miscalculations evolve from were no militarily significant began in 1991, following the war to mindsets and biases that grow over liberate Kuwait, neither Saddam time — on all sides and for numer- WMD stocks in Iraq when Hussein nor anyone else had a clear ous reasons. idea of what to expect. The U.N. Se- For example, Saddam himself de- U.S. forces occupied curity Council’s resolution ending the liberately projected alternative views war (UNSCR 687) linked the lifting of reality to keep his enemies (internal Baghdad in April 2003. of sanctions to Iraq’s compliance with and external) confused, remaining WMD disarmament, as verified by ambiguous about his (lack of) WMD teams from the U.N. Special Com- to keep Tehran off-balance. In his experience, WMD had mission and the International Atomic Energy Agency. been extremely useful. It had helped save him during the Saddam reasonably assumed that these inspectors war with Iran in the 1980s and — as he saw it — deterred would make some visits to Iraq and, in a fashion similar to the United States from taking him out in 1991. previous IAEA inspectors, certify the absence of weapons Saddam Hussein’s leadership style also instilled uncer- of mass destruction. The process would then end. Other tainty and fear among his minions concerning what they governments had similar expectations, reflecting the fact should do or report, especially regarding WMD. So he that policymakers in Washington and other capitals had knew that he could not trust the reports of his own people. taken a short-term view in crafting the resolutions. And if Saddam had doubts about what was going on in In the wake of the surprisingly swift, low-cost victory, Iraq, how could outside analysts make accurate judgments Washington’s priority was to lock in the success and limit founded on facts rather than expectations? Baghdad’s ability to re-emerge as an aggressive power. For the record: There were no militarily significant There was also an unspoken belief that Saddam’s regime stocks of chemical or biological agents (much less nuclear would soon fall due to internal instability, fueled by popu- weapons-related development programs) in Iraq when lar anger over the nation’s military defeat. No one fore- U.S. forces occupied Baghdad in April 2003. The country saw that the sanctions would be the root and branch of did have limited numbers of prohibited long-range ballis- ongoing international conflict for over a decade. tic missiles, however, giving Saddam the option of deploy- The parallel with the punitive terms the Treaty of Ver- ing WMD when circumstances permitted. sailles imposed on Germany following World War I — and This “absence of WMD” is, however, only one point on their consequences — went unrecognized or ignored. In- the long curve of the Saddam regime’s behavior. It is an deed, even sophisticated international policy analysts still important point, to be sure (especially for politicians), but miss the fact that the U.N. Iraq resolution constituted co- it does not convey the regime’s internal dynamics, nor its ercive disarmament, not an arms control accord. intentions for the future. And it certainly ignores impor- Following the letter of the law, UNSCOM inspectors tant matters of context. demanded that Iraq give up something it adamantly did not want to yield. Just as Germany had sought to thwart Charles A. Duelfer was the deputy executive chairman, the Allied inspectors monitoring its disarmament, Saddam, and then acting chairman, of the United Nations Special we later learned, set as his highest priority the removal of Commission on Iraq from 1993 until its termination in sanctions, and at the lowest cost in terms of compliance 2000. He was in the country from April to August 2003 and prestige. He therefore tested the process from the and later headed the Iraq Survey Group throughout 2004, start, giving inspection teams minimal access and only producing the Comprehensive Report on Iraq WMD turning over the most obvious Scud missiles and chemical (known as the “Duelfer Report”) for the Director of Cen- weapons. In fact, just weeks after the inspections began, tral Intelligence. He now consults on a range of intelligence Baghdad blatantly denied inspectors access to locations and security management topics with Omnis, Inc., and is known to contain weapons materials. the author of Hide and Seek: The Search for Truth in Iraq In response, the Security Council held emergency (Public Affairs, 2009). meetings but could only agree to send the heads of the
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IAEA and UNSCOM to Baghdad to After 9/11, flate these tyrants, raising them to our discuss the issue. Gifted with an ex- level, every time a president publicly quisite talent for the use of power, Saddam was too slow to denounces them.) Saddam correctly concluded that he And until 1998, Saddam and other could block inspections at a low cost understand that the world Iraqis clung to the belief that a soften- — certainly nothing that would threat- ing of relations with Washington was en his regime. This early lesson set the had changed. possible. After all, during the 1980s tone for years of growing friction with the United States had stayed relatively inspectors. The worst that would hap- close to Baghdad as it fought against pen if he blocked or delayed inspectors for an hour or two the common threat Tehran posed — even as Baghdad while a site was “cleansed,” a favorite Iraqi tactic, was a con- used chemical munitions against the Iranians (and the tinuation of sanctions and very limited military strikes. Kurds inside Iraq). Throughout the 1990s, senior Iraqis Secure in that knowledge, Saddam worked to maneu- repeatedly asked me what it would take to re-engage with ver his way out of sanctions while conceding the least Washington. They requested that I convey to the White amount of access to the inspectors. The dogged persist- House their willingness to do almost anything — cooper- ence of UNSCOM and IAEA teams over the years even- ate against fundamentalists, help in the Middle East peace tually resulted in Iraq largely being disarmed of WMD — process — if only Washington would talk to Baghdad. In but no one outside Iraq was convinced of this. Indeed, the words of one official, Baghdad could be “the best U.S. analysts came to assume that the regime always dis- friend of the United States in the region, bar none.” sembled — and that it did so precisely because it had There was never a direct response. Publicly, our posi- something to hide: WMD. tion was consistent: Baghdad had to comply with all U.N. resolutions, and then relations could improve. At the same The Problem of Sanctions time, there were regular statements that the U.S. favored Gradually, Saddam also realized that the Security regime change and had no expectation that Saddam would Council (most particularly, the U.S.) would not act to lift comply with the U.N. resolutions. sanctions, no matter how much he did to comply with its Saddam did not know if these were just words, or more. terms. This, of course, touched on the basic fallacy in the To his highly honed sense of power and influence, it West’s approach: No one really believed that if sanctions seemed inevitable that the U.S. and Iraq would reconcile. were lifted, Saddam would continue to comply with the dis- The two nations’ interests were congruent. Both were sec- armament goals. Moreover, it was highly improbable, once ular governments. Moreover, Iraq was the bulwark against oil and commerce began flowing freely, that the Council the radicals in Iran. And as the most powerful Arab coun- would ever agree to reinstate sanctions. Saddam was astute try, with great resources including skillful engineers and in giving out oil contracts and too many Council members industrious people, Iraq was far more important than the would have too great a stake in continuing the flow. tribes running the Gulf sheikdoms. Until 1998, Saddam I discussed this dynamic candidly with many senior calculated that Washington would eventually “get over” regime officials, both before and after the 2003 Iraq War. the invasion of Kuwait and resume close ties. Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz deftly used it to drive a Regime officials never grasped that it would be politi- wedge between Security Council members. Russia, cal suicide for an American leader to open a dialogue with France and China were inclined to relieve constraints on Saddam, no matter what the terms. Nor did they fully un- Saddam, while the U.S. and Britain remained determined derstand the uproar over Monica Lewinsky; to them it was to contain him. inconceivable that a relationship with an intern could hob- Still, Saddam Hussein never lost sight of the fact that ble a superpower. But once Baghdad realized how badly Washington was the major player. It was obvious that he the Clinton administration had been weakened, it pressed derived prestige from being the only leader to stand up the UNSCOM inspection issue to a conclusion. and confront the last superpower. Less obvious was his Based on the judgment that inspectors could not func- view that he would also attain such status by being allied tion under the conditions Baghdad had imposed, the with Washington. (A general note: We unnecessarily in- United States — supported only by the United Kingdom
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— conducted four days of bombing in December 1998. But Saddam was too slow to understand that the world had The UNSCOM inspectors left and never returned, and the changed. After all, he had no connection with the perpe- Security Council was mightily divided. trators or with al-Qaida generally, so he did not foresee As Tariq Aziz later told me, Iraq had a choice of sanc- that the U.S. would treat him as an equivalent emerging tions with inspectors or sanctions without them. No one threat that had to be dealt with once and for all. should have been surprised when it chose the latter. Only after President George W. Bush gave his 2002 State of the Union address denouncing Iraq as a member A Fateful Year of the “Axis of Evil” did Saddam begin to appreciate the By the time President George W. Bush took office in gravity of his position. But he was still unwilling to accept 2001, a decade after his father’s smashing military victory a resumption of inspections (without an explicit commit- over Iraq, it was clear that the sanctions regime was crum- ment by the Security Council to lift sanctions), and his ob- bling. One of the first tasks of Secretary of State Colin stinacy provided evidence to those concerned about the Powell was to address this situation, which he did by pro- possibility that Iraq had begun rebuilding WMD as soon posing to the U.N. Security Council a radically reconfig- as U.N. inspectors had left Iraq three years earlier. ured sanctions program dubbed “smart sanctions.” (Tariq Ultimately, this was his fatal mistake. Had Saddam Aziz smugly dismissed them as “stupid sanctions.”) freely accepted the return of inspectors in 2002 rather than Up to this point, there had been a presumption that continuing to defy the Security Council, it is highly likely most exports to Iraq should be denied. Now there would that the momentum for invasion would have dissipated. be a list of prohibited items, while all other requests would Saddam followed this course against the advice of both normally be approved. This shift was intended, in part, to Tariq Aziz and Foreign Minister Naji Sabri, who under- lessen the effect of sanctions on the Iraqi people — but its stood the post-9/11 diplomatic climate. main goal was to retain support for any constraints on Sad- However, Saddam knew the status of his WMD pro- dam from Russia, France and other Security Council mem- grams and felt that the U.S. must know it, as well. And bers. In the pre-9/11 world, this was considered to be the having received assurances from Russia and France that best way to accomplish that goal. they would block any U.S. proposal that the United Na- Even so, by that summer Saddam Hussein appeared to tions take military action, he may have anticipated that the be on the verge of shedding U.N. sanctions — his highest Security Council would finally make a concrete promise priority — at a low cost in prestige and power. Interna- to lift sanctions if inspectors found nothing within some tional commerce was returning to life, and its oil produc- defined period of time. tion was rising. At meetings of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Iraqi delegation was The Coefficient of WMD the center of attention, with traders eagerly anticipating the To understand why it turned out that there were no full and unfettered return of Iraqi oil to the market. Sad- weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003 is to under- dam shrewdly doled out favors and oil contracts to build an stand something that may be useful in other circum- international constituency. “If you wanted to be a friend of stances. It may also convey knowledge about where Iraq when sanctions were formally dropped, then you bet- Saddam and his regime were headed. ter be a friend of Iraq now” was an effective tactic, espe- Why did Saddam use weapons of mass destruction in cially when combined with a moral argument that the certain situations and not in others? What were the un- sanctions were killing thousands of innocent Iraqis. derlying dynamics? The goal I set for the investigation of American control of substantial Iraqi airspace through Iraqi WMD programs in 2004 was to understand all the the “no-fly” zones (patrolled at great expense and risk) was factors involved, not just to discover the status of WMD a matter of extreme annoyance, but it posed no immediate inventories in 2003. threat. Saddam had a very long time horizon uncon- It is the difference between algebra and calculus. What strained by the business, election or news cycles that com- equation was Saddam Hussein attempting to solve for press Washington’s thinking, and his perspective extended which the coefficient of WMD was zero at certain points far beyond that of American politicians. and greater than zero at other times? What were the fac- That calculation was not far off the mark — until 9/11. tors and constants that comprised this equation? And
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could the West have figured out how The 2003 war had nothing tions on the ground. While U.N. in- to affect Iraqi calculations? spectors may not have believed Sad- Certainly we knew in the fall of to do with intelligence dam was compliant, they certainly 2002 that Saddam was not complying knew that it would be extremely hard with the U.N. Security Council reso- failures about Iraq’s WMD to prove he was not. And at the lutions aimed at containing his United Nations, process can be an regime. He had not allowed inspec- programs; it stemmed from end in itself, becoming an endless en- tions for almost four years and was deavor that never comes to resolution. actively working on ballistic missiles errors of judgment in Among intelligence analysts, the (with assistance from Russian techni- predominant hypothesis was that in cians, we learned after the war). It using intelligence. the absence of inspections during the was clear that Iraq was importing con- previous years, Saddam would have ventional military equipment from been crazy not to rebuild his weapons. suppliers willing to violate U.N. sanctions. The result was an extraordinary focus on WMD assessments In post-9/11 Washington, Iraq was a problem to be and extremely limited supporting intelligence. (I would ob- solved, not managed. The Bush administration tried to ad- serve that the data supporting assessments about current dress it through the United Nations — but only because it Iranian nuclear efforts dwarf the tidbits underlying the es- believed there was no way Saddam could (or would) com- timates of Iraqi nuclear activity made in 2002.) ply with the U.N. resolutions. However, those who made When the Iraq Survey Group completed its analysis of that argument did not have much experience with inspec- the regime and its relationship to weapons programs in
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2004, it was clear Saddam had anticipated that, once he re- Operating in the Dark turned to more normal relations with the rest of the world, The combative interactions between U.N. weapons he would be able to rebuild his arsenal, including WMD. inspectors and Iraqi officials throughout the 1990s largely But before the war, the picture was complicated and nu- established the mindsets and biases that led to misappre- anced. We had no analogue in Washington for Saddam’s hensions and miscalculations on both sides in 2000-2003. thinking or the internal operations of his regime. For U.S. Once Baghdad was rid of all international inspectors in politicians, ignorant of the Baghdad mindset, it was impos- 1998, Washington lost virtually all knowledge of what was sible to have anything more than a cartoon image of Sad- going on inside Iraq. The relatively detailed data UN- dam Hussein. SCOM had generated suddenly vanished, leaving the U.S. Even many intelligence analysts found it difficult to with no independent sources. fathom Baghdad, given the few opportunities to interact Our intelligence analysts nonetheless were obliged with Iraqis inside Iraq. As an intelligence analyst, how can to make their best guesses about Iraq’s WMD program. you see or collect data about something for which you have Based on previous experience with Saddam’s behavior no word or concept? and their caution about underestimating his military Likewise, Saddam had vast misperceptions about Wash- might (as the West did prior to the 1991 war), there was ington. Among them, he and his government assumed that an altogether natural tendency to presume Baghdad the last superpower must be well-informed. Baghdad would reconstitute WMD in the absence of any inspec- made critical decisions in 1998 concerning inspectors under tors — and be able to conceal such efforts under the the assumption that the United States knew Iraq had elim- cover of the renewed trade between Iraq and the out- inated its WMD systems. side world that was flourishing under the U.N. Oil-for-
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Food program. establish relations in ministries of Saddam’s government Iraqi leaders had informed UNSCOM that their pos- were blocked. The refusal to use such knowledge and as- session and use of weapons of mass destruction were vital sessments led to monumental blunders such as de-Baathi- in the war against Iran in the 1980s. Later, they believed fication and the decision to disband the Iraqi Army. that the prospect of encountering WMD had deterred Indeed, the White House refused to undertake even lim- U.S. troops from driving all the way to Baghdad in 1991. ited covert activities aimed at facilitating carefully limited Aware of this, Iraq analysts back in Washington figured immediate changes to the very top levels. Instead, it Saddam would be missing a trick if he did not rebuild his opted for the wholesale destruction of the existing appa- WMD stockpiles. They were right about the plan, but ratus of government. not the timing. Saddam was going to wait until after the In my opinion, the bulk of the resulting postwar chaos sanctions were lifted. in Iraq was avoidable. While Saddam Hussein was a prob- In conclusion, let me offer one more observation. It is lem that had to be addressed one way or another, the true that our intelligence assessments concerning Iraqi tragedy was that it did not need to be done so badly. This WMD were largely wrong and mistakenly flaunted in the costly miscalculation did not derive from mistakes about prewar political environment. However, our intelligence Iraq WMD inventories, but from ignoring readily avail- about the internal dynamics of Iraq and how the nation able evidence about the internal dynamics of Iraq. On was held together was largely correct. these points, the intelligence community (and some old The real problem is that the Bush administration re- hands in State) had far better knowledge. Yet for reasons fused to tap those perspectives when it made major deci- best known to themselves, political leaders chose not to sions about postwar governance. Prewar actions to act on this intelligence. ■
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THE U.S. AND TURKEY: BACK FROM THE BRINK Laszlo Kubinyi
AMERICAN, IRAQI AND TURKISH POLICYMAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PROMOTING DIALOGUE AND MAKING COMMON CAUSE.
BY ROSS WILSON
elations between Turkey and the United States foundered between 2003 and 2007 over various issues, the most important of which was Iraq. Disagreement over the U.S.-led invasion diminished Ankara’s standing in Washington, produced Turkish public antipathy toward American policy in the region and, most importantly,R undermined our governments’ ability to cooperate on Iraq and other issues. Getting the nexus of Turkey-Iraq issues right was job number-one for U.S. Mission Turkey between 2005 and 2008.
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Diplomacy and policy changes in Disagreements about Iraq In addition, an economic aid both capitals successfully transformed package that would have sped re- perceptions of the Iraq problem and provoked the worst covery from Turkey’s 2001 financial put U.S.-Turkish relations back on crisis died, as did talk about a possi- track. Given the challenges that lie downturn in U.S.-Turkish ble Qualified Industrial Zone trade ahead, American, Iraqi and Turkish preference arrangement. policymakers should continue to relations since the 1974 Other events reinforced the neg- focus on dialogue, achieving common atives. cause, and addressing specific issues Cyprus crisis. • On July 4, 2003, U.S. forces of concern. detained and “hooded” a Turkish Special Forces contingent in Suley- Three Problems maniye. (Turkey has had many hundreds of troops sta- Disagreement about Iraq provoked the worst down- tioned in northern Iraq since the 1990s, and it still does.) turn in U.S.-Turkish relations since the 1974 crisis over The details of the incident remain obscure. Whatever Cyprus. The issue had several components: the events of the cause and despite U.S. apologies, Turks saw it as a 2003 and their legacy, Turks’ negative view of U.S. oper- national humiliation. The chief of the Turkish General ations and tactics and, especially, the presence in north- Staff declared a “crisis of confidence” with the United ern Iraq of terrorists from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party States. The act of revenge for Suleymaniye that opened (known in English as the PKK). A significant ethnic mi- the viciously anti-American film “Valley of the Wolves: nority in Turkey, the Kurds have fought for decades to Iraq” helped make it one of the most popular movies ever maintain their cultural heritage and gain basic civil rights. produced in Turkey. In the late 1970s, the PKK launched an armed rebellion • Sensationalist media coverage turned the Novem- against Aukara for an independent Kurdish state. ber 2004 U.S. military operation to regain control of Fal- As is well known, the Turkish Parliament failed on lujah into a horror story full of civilian casualties caused March 1, 2003, to pass a government-backed measure by our reported use of white phosphorus. Turkish Prime that would have allowed the U.S. Army 4th Infantry Di- Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the victims “mar- vision and other forces to enter Turkey and then invade tyrs,” and one of his party’s parliamentarians denounced Iraq from the south. The lack of support and disruption the operation as “genocide.” A similar operation in 2005 to U.S. plans were big setbacks for U.S.-Turkish relations. at Tal Afar, home to a large number of ethnic kinsmen, High-level consultations, especially among senior de- the Turcomen, produced even more lurid headlines. fense officials, dried up. Secretary of Defense Donald • Whether the picture was of Abu Ghraib or mosques Rumsfeld did not visit Ankara during his remaining bombed, whether the United States was responsible or three-and-one-half years in office. Our bilateral High- not, everything in Iraq seemed to reflect badly on us, our Level Defense Group virtually ceased to function and in- role in the region and our relations with Turkey. teractions among our militaries shriveled, reflecting estrangement as well as the exigencies of war. (U.S. use The PKK of Incirlik Air Base was a key survivor as our security re- The most intractable component of our problems with lationship turned downhill. Along with arrangements to Turkey over Iraq was the PKK. After the 1999 capture ship non-lethal supplies by ground across Turkey, it has and rendition to Turkey of its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, remained an important link to U.S. forces in Iraq and the group declared a ceasefire in its campaign. Attacks Afghanistan.) did not entirely stop, but calm returned to Turkey’s south- east, and the state of emergency there ended. The PKK Ross Wilson was U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan from 2000 then regrouped at its northern Iraq camps just below the to 2003 and to Turkey from 2005 to 2008. A career Foreign border and at Qandil Mountain, 100 kilometers to the Service officer, he also served in Moscow, Prague, Mel- south. Larger-scale terrorism resumed in 2005. bourne and Washington, D.C. He retired in 2008 and is a Whenever the PKK’s northern Iraq presence got too visiting lecturer at The George Washington University. irritating in the 1990s, Turkish troops had entered Iraq to
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hit it — without objection from Sad- President George W. Bush’s Diplomacy and Decision dam Hussein. After the U.S. inva- It seemed obvious in 2005 that sion, however, cross-border action Nov. 5, 2007, meeting with getting the Iraq problem in U.S.- was no longer possible. Washington Turkish relations fixed was essen- thought this might unhinge the Iraqi Turkish Prime Minister tial. Iraq was our nation’s top Kurds, potentially unsettle the most foreign policy priority. We needed stable part of the country, and per- Recep Tayyip Erdogan Turkey’s help and cooperation haps have other unintended conse- there, as well as an end to the Iraq- quences. And U.S. officials respon- proved to be a turning point. related enmity that was degrading sible for Iraq policy had more im- a decades-old alliance and under- mediate concerns than 3,500-odd mining our work on terrorism, en- fighters located in remote border regions who, whatever ergy, Iran and other issues. So we increased our their other sins, did not target Iraqis or Americans. consultations with Ankara on Iraq, made common cause But as terrorist attacks in Turkey mounted, claiming on several of those issues, and addressed specific prob- hundreds of lives, Turks increasingly blamed the PKK’s lems, especially the PKK. Policy changes in both Wash- de facto sanctuary in northern Iraq. They demanded ington and Ankara were essential. that either we or the Iraqis act, or that Turkish forces be Dialogue: Much of diplomacy consists of talking with allowed to do so. U.S. acquiescence to Israel’s July 2006 and listening to others, so expanding our consultations cross-border invasion of Lebanon to fight Hezbollah ac- with Turkey on Iraq was an obvious — and relatively easy centuated these demands, especially when it was fol- — point of departure. lowed in August by at least 13 bomb attacks in Istanbul • Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s coordinator and other urban centers. Many Turks concluded that for Iraq, Ambassador David Satterfield, became a fre- we and the Iraqi Kurds tacitly — or perhaps even ac- quent visitor to Ankara, and both he and his predecessor, tively — supported the PKK. Seizures from captured Ambassador James Jeffrey (now ambassador to Turkey), fighters of U.S.-origin small arms (provided to Iraq for as well as senior National Security Council staff respon- security forces there) seemed to confirm this. sible for Iraq, made plenty of time available for Turkish Our embrace of the Kurdistan Regional Govern- visitors to Washington. ment and calls by reputable figures outside the Bush • Multinational Force-Iraq Commanding Generals administration to divide Iraq along ethnic lines added David Petraeus and Raymond Odierno initiated regular the specter of Kurdistan to Turks’ angst. It seemed to meetings with the Turkish deputy chiefs of the General some that our goals for Iraq included an independent Staff, Generals Ergin Saygun and Hasan Igsiz. Kurdistan that might even take in a chunk of Turkey’s • U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad (later southeast as a reward for the Iraqi Kurds’ support in Ryan Crocker) visited Turkey, as well, and they and em- deposing Saddam Hussein in 2003 — and retribution bassy staff met often with the Turkish ambassador to Iraq for Turkey’s lack thereof. (first Ünal Çeviköz, then Derya Kanbay). In May 2007, a suicide bomber in Ankara targeted • Embassy Ankara staff were frequent guests of Turk- Turkey’s military commander. More attacks followed, ish Foreign Ministry Iraq Coordinators Ambassadors and matters came to a head when PKK attacks over Oguz Çelikkol and Murat Özçelik, briefing them on de- three out of four consecutive weekends in September velopments, identifying upcoming issues and soliciting and October 2007 claimed dozens of casualties near the Turkish views. border in southeast Turkey. No democratically elected • Iraq usually headed the agenda when Sec. Rice and government could allow such violence to go unan- Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas swered, and Turkey’s parliament passed a measure on Burns (later William Burns) met with their counterparts. Oct. 17 authorizing a cross-border operation. This was the And the “Shared Vision and Structured Dialogue” initia- picture when Prime Minister Erdogan arrived in Wash- tive launched by Sec. Rice and Foreign Minister Abdul- ington to meet President George W. Bush on Nov. 5 of lah Gül in 2006 put Iraq in the middle of a compre- that year. hensive dialogue about the region.
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• Vice President Richard Che- The most intractable and Iran. Turkey hosted the second ney, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Expanded Neighbors ministerial in General Peter Pace (later Admiral component of our Iraq November 2007. Michael Mullin), National Security Addressing the PKK Issue: These Advisor Stephen Hadley, and NATO problems with Turkey during necessary steps only marginally im- Supreme Allied Commander Gen- proved the atmosphere with Turkey, eral James Jones (later Bantz Crad- this period was the PKK. however, for the PKK problem re- dock) played key roles, as well. mained a chronic and growing ache. Common Cause: We also identi- We tried several initiatives. A fied and pursued areas where we could cooperate. For- 2004-2005 effort to conduct trilateral diplomacy with eign Minister Gül and Ambassador Khalilzad teamed up in Turkey and Iraq on the PKK wasn’t taken seriously in Bagh- December 2005 to cajole a public commitment from Sunni dad, and its lack of results disillusioned Ankara. State De- leaders (including Tariq al-Hashemi, later an Iraqi vice partment Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism Frank president) to abandon their boycott and join Iraqi politics. Urbancic led an effort to engage authorities in Europe on We consulted on further efforts in 2006 and 2007 to draw the PKK terrorist and criminal networks there that funded other disaffected Sunni groups into the political process. its operations in northern Iraq and elsewhere. In support of Sec. Rice’s interest in broadening our regional Though the Turks initially viewed this as window dress- engagement on Iraq, Gül strongly backed efforts to stand ing, the results achieved in several European capitals up an Expanded Neighbors of Iraq forum in 2007 — help- eventually convinced them the effort had merit. Sec. ing to secure, among other things, the participation of Syria Rice named retired U.S. Army General Joseph Ralston as
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a special representative to focus on Turkey counseled the There were hiccups, to be sure. the problem of the PKK presence Almost as soon as the smoke in northern Iraq. Ralston’s stature Iraqis during their 2008 cleared from the first Turkish as a former NATO commander im- strikes in December, officials re- pressed Turkish leaders, but they negotiations of a status-of- sponsible for Iraq policy — wor- never believed the United States ried, for good reason, about the had changed its policy against ki- forces agreement with us and additional strain such actions put netic action on the PKK problem. on the Iraqi political system — said They were right, but the Ralston tried to help on Kirkuk and the Turks had made their point and mission did defuse tensions for a should stop. This did not reflect period and helped to catalyze a election law issues. the president’s undertaking to change in Washington’s thinking. Prime Minister Erdogan, but The key action came from Pres. throughout the months that fol- Bush. At his meeting with Prime Minister Erdogan on lowed, concerns were expressed at all levels that Turkey’s Nov. 5, 2007, the president did three things. First, he actions posed too much risk to our overall effort in Iraq. publicly declared the PKK to be “an enemy of the United Hard work by U.S. officials in Iraq helped maintain calm. States, of Turkey and of Iraq.” These words replaced for- A Turkish land incursion that began on Feb. 21, 2008, mulations about the problem that were more or less ar- against PKK bases a few kilometers south of the border dent depending on one’s proximity to Ankara, but were produced more strain. It lasted a week. never effective as rhetoric or policy. Second, he agreed From roughly this point forward, Turkey-Iraq relations with Erdogan that Turkey could conduct limited opera- and American dealings with Ankara on Iraq began to im- tions against PKK border encampments in northern Iraq. prove. On March 7, 2008, Turkey hosted Iraqi President And third, he undertook to provide U.S. intelligence sup- Jalal Talabani in Ankara — a long-encouraged and long- port for those efforts. sought visit that hadn’t been possible earlier. (That Tala- bani made the trip then seemed to indicate that he, too, A Turning Point saw this as exactly the time for Turkey to chart a new re- Generals James Cartwright, the JCS vice chairman, lationship with Iraq and Iraqi Kurds.) In July, Tayyip Er- Petraeus and Craddock visited Ankara days after the dogan made the first visit to Baghdad by a Turkish prime White House meeting to show we were serious and to dis- minister in 18 years, and he and Iraqi Prime Minister cuss the practicalities. Details were worked out by the Nouri al-Maliki energized efforts to normalize political, commander of U.S. Mission Turkey’s Office of Defense trade and other ties and to support the Iraqi government. Cooperation, Air Force Major General Eric Rosborg (in Turkey counseled the Iraqis during their 2008 negoti- consultation with MNF-I and the U.S. European Com- ations of a status-of-forces agreement with Washington mand), and counterparts at the Turkish General Staff. and tried to help on Kirkuk and election law issues. Doors Deconfliction arrangements were made to prevent unin- opened for military exchanges and training. Later, tended fire on friendly elements in northern Iraq, and a Turkey’s Iraq Coordinator Murat Özçelik initiated a dia- small center was established to facilitate the real-time logue with senior Kurdistan Regional Government offi- sharing of actionable intelligence. cials. (This process got a boost when Turkish Foreign Turkey carried out its first cross-border artillery attack Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met with KRG President on PKK encampments on Dec. 1, 2007, followed by air Masud Barzani in Erbil in 2009.) U.S.-Turkish relations strikes at Qandil Mountain and bases close to the border improved, including in the security arena. on Dec. 16-17. A relentless effort took place in the What accounts for this shift? Our change of policy to months that followed. By the summer of 2008, the PKK’s allow counterstrikes against the PKK in northern Iraq was safe haven in northern Iraq was no more. Its training and a key factor. Turkish authorities, now visibly protecting logistical capabilities had been significantly degraded, and their citizens, felt politically able to upgrade their en- developments in Turkey-Iraq and Turkey-Iraqi Kurd re- gagement with Iraq and the Iraqi Kurds. Our consulta- lations were isolating it politically, as well. tions had an effect, too, in helping Ankara look past
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immediate issues to the eventual The eventual drawdown U.S.-Turkish relations, it is worth drawdown of U.S. forces and influ- noting that Pres. Bush’s change of ence in Iraq, which posed a prob- of U.S. forces in Iraq poses policy on the PKK also helped, at lem — and an opportunity — for least indirectly, to unlock a new ap- Turkey. a problem — and an proach to Turkey’s internal Kurdish Various developments helped issues in 2008-2009. The govern- the Turks reconcile themselves to opportunity — for Turkey. ment’s effort has been tentative and the prospect of an autonomous Iraqi encountered setbacks, but hope- Kurdish entity in the north. Parallel fully will succeed in drawing more efforts by U.S. diplomats may have helped KRG leaders Kurds into the mainstream. see that cultivating cooperation with Ankara could be im- portant, perhaps vital, to their longer-term interests given Looking Forward other problems they faced. Mutual trade and investment Potential problems lie ahead in Iraq, in Turkey-Iraq interests furthered such thinking. A final factor may have relations and in our own dealings with Turkey on Iraq. been concern about Iranian ambitions in Iraq and region- • One issue is the U.S. redeployment out of Iraq. ally. While having no interest in confrontation with Iran, Transiting material through Turkey en route to Europe Turkish officials wanted to project more moderate and sta- and the United States would save money and time. bility-oriented influences that would, inter alia, bolster the • Elections and the formation of a new Iraqi govern- role of Turkey and like-minded countries in the region. ment in 2010 will be difficult. Al-Qaida is still very active, Although this article focuses on the problem of Iraq in even as problems in Kirkuk remain unresolved. Violent
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and centripetal forces lie, at best, just Washington should ates and work with the military. below the surface. We and Iraq should continue to • Turkish-Iraqi border patrol and sustain the dialogue about cooperate with Turkey as its forces go military contacts remain inadequate, after terrorists in remote border areas, especially with the Peshmerga in the Iraq with Turkey in and U.S. officials in Ankara, Baghdad north. The continued presence of and Erbil must do everything they hundreds of Turkish troops in north- 2010 and 2011. can to ensure that the newly re-estab- ern Iraq could be a point of conflict — lished U.S.-Turkey-Iraq trilateral or an opportunity for constructive en- forum on the PKK produces results. gagement on both sides. Other ways to help include: encouraging trade and in- • The PKK may stage its own flashpoint. It has no in- vestment in border areas, through the kind of preferential terest in promoting comity between Ankara and Baghdad trade arrangements proposed in 2008 for Afghanistan and or between Turks and Iraqi Kurds, or in the success of Pakistan; facilitating Iraqi natural gas exports to Turkey and Ankara’s initiatives to address popular grievances among through it to Europe; and conditioning multilateral assis- Turkish Kurds — any or all of which would further isolate tance on Iraqi steps to integrate economically with Turkey it and undermine its interests. and other neighbors. The United States should keep up a sustained conver- Iraq and Turkey can have a good future together, sation about Iraq with Turkey in 2010 and 2011. We should though that is by no means inevitable. Constructive ef- encourage Ankara’s continued engagement across the Iraqi forts on all sides will contribute greatly to the chances of political spectrum, especially its efforts to bolster moder- success. ■
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THE MIDDLE EAST: FORKS IN THE WAY FORWARD Laszlo Kubinyi
THE STAKES FOR GETTING U.S. POLICY RIGHT IN THE REGION ARE HIGHER THAN EVER. HERE IS AN OVERVIEW OF THE PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES.
BY CHAS W. F REEMAN JR.
hen you look back, some years can be seen as having inflected history, moving men and events along paths they would otherwise not have taken. 2001 — the year of 9/11 — was such a time. 2009 shaped up as another,W not just for the decisions that were made but for those that were not. The second President Bush bequeathed his successor a set of thoroughly broken policies in the Middle East and the near-total estrangement of the United States from former allies and friends in the Arab and Muslim worlds. President
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Barack Obama responded with What began as a conflict action to a core American policy. rhetorical “change we” — or at least It has also left our country unable five Norwegians — “can believe in.” between Jewish colonists and to analyze the very real threat to our In his speech in Cairo last June, he domestic tranquility that intermit- clearly signaled that he recognizes indigenous Arabs has become tent terrorist attacks represent. By the imperative of solving the Israel- leaving such incidents unexplained, Palestine conflict and repairing a worldwide struggle and disconnecting them from the American relations with Arabs and trends and events in the Middle Muslims if the U.S. is to enjoy peace between Jews, Muslims and East that helped inspire them, we abroad and tranquility at home. have imposed a mental block on Still, in the Middle East and else- their respective allies. ourselves that has distorted our where the Obama administration threat perceptions and greatly ham- has made only minimal changes to pered the development of a realistic longstanding American policies that are conspicuous fail- national security strategy. ures. The short-term stakes in getting these policies right So it is necessary to begin by recapitulating the obvious. are large. The long-term stakes are vastly larger. The 9/11 assault on the United States was carried out by Muslim extremists, motivated in large measure by their re- A Large National Blind Spot sentment of U.S. support for Israel and its actions. The When U.S. interrogators asked Khalid Sheikh Mo- need to avenge 9/11 and deter a repetition of it led directly hammed, the confessed mastermind of the 9/11 atrocities, to the American invasion of Afghanistan. The so-called why al-Qaida had done the terrible things it did that day, he “global war on terrorism” that this invasion inaugurated gave a straightforward answer. He said that the purpose provided a spurious but politically sufficient justification for was to focus “the American people ... on the atrocities that the occupation of Iraq in 2003. America is committing by supporting Israel against the Our labeling of Hamas as a “terrorist organization” in- Palestinian people and America’s self-serving foreign policy spired the joint U.S.-Israeli effort to reject and overturn the that corrupts Arab governments and leads to further ex- results of the 2006 elections in the occupied territories, ploitation of the Arab Muslim people.” In Osama bin even though these elections were universally judged to be Laden’s annual “address to the American people” on Sept. free and fair. A similar view of Hezbollah caused the U.S. 11, 2009, he reiterated: “We have demonstrated and stated to encourage Israel in its savage mauling of Lebanon and to many times, for more than two-and-a-half-decades, that the protect it from the huge international backlash against its cause of our disagreement with you is your support to your more recent assault on Arab civilians in Gaza. Israeli allies who occupy our land of Palestine.” Determination to avoid another 9/11 remains the strate- There is nothing at all ambiguous or unclear about these gic rationale for the ongoing war in Afghanistan and adja- explanations of 9/11 by its planners and perpetrators. Few cent areas of Pakistan. Meanwhile, the insolent cruelties of abroad dispute their essential validity. Yet here in America, the West Bank occupation and the siege of Gaza continue they remain completely unreported outside the Internet. to inflame Arab and Muslim opinion. Any public reference to U.S. backing for Israel as a griev- Taken together, these developments have caused a ance that motivated the atrocities in New York and Wash- growing number of Arabs and Muslims to perceive a broad ington eight years ago is vigorously disputed and American crusade to humiliate them and their religion. suppressed as politically incorrect. This has created a large Their estrangement from the U.S. and other non-Islamic national blind spot to the seriousness of Arab Muslim re- societies has deepened. Al-Qaida has discredited itself through its excesses, but Islamic extremism has continued Chas W. Freeman Jr. is a retired FSO and former ambas- to metastasize. In Gaza, for example, political forces far sador to Saudi Arabia. He is currently president of the more fanatical than Hamas are beginning to emerge from Middle East Policy Council. This article is based on Amb. massive suffering. What began as a conflict between Jew- Freeman’s remarks to the National Council on U.S.–Arab ish colonists and indigenous Arabs has become a worldwide Relations in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 16, 2009. struggle between Jews, Muslims and their respective allies.
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As Israel’s sole protector, the The Obama administration An Israeli Cabinet-directed as- United States has become the target sassination campaign has long work- of sustained asymmetric warfare by is unwilling, at least for now, ed to ensure that “there is no one to terrorists who espouse extremist talk to” on the Palestinian side. With Muslim agendas. Governments al- to put pressure on Israel. a little help from their Israeli con- lied with the United States or de- querors and us Americans, surviving pendent on it — especially those in Palestinian politicians remain hope- Arab and Muslim countries — are targets, too. The threat lessly divided. Israel has not presented a proposal for peace we Americans now face derives less from al-Qaida than it to the Palestinians. Sadly, if it now did so, there would be does from widening Muslim rage at continuing humiliation no one with the authority to accept on behalf of the Pales- and injustice. tinian people. The United States, meanwhile, is seeking to ease Pales- A Central Strategic Task tinian suffering in ways that improve the political standing A just and durable peace in the Holy Land that secures of collaborators with the Israeli occupation authorities. Will the state of Israel should be an end in itself for the United Palestinian leaders emerge who are willing to take what- States. But the fact that the conflict there enrages and rad- ever they can get from Israel and who are able, somehow, icalizes the Islamic body politic worldwide should make the to call off the resistance to it? That seems to be the hope, achievement of such a peace an inescapable, central task if not the plan. It is not, of course, the trend. of United States strategy. This is why it was right for Pres. The Obama administration is unwilling, at least for now, Obama to take time last June to deliver a message of rec- to put pressure on Israel. Instead, it has fallen back on the onciliation to Arabs and Muslims in Cairo. Despite all the use of diplomacy as psychotherapy for Israel’s political other urgent tasks, he focused on resolving the Israeli- pathologies. It is trying to induce better behavior by ar- Palestinian conflict. He has repeatedly expressed deter- ranging Arab gestures that appease Israeli apprehensions mination to stabilize Israel’s relations with its Arab neigh- and signal acceptance of the Jewish state in their midst even bors through a “two-state” solution. The administration’s before its borders are fixed, or the status of both its captive initial efforts have, however, met with contemptuous re- Arab population and those who fled to the refugee camps jection from Israel, feckless dithering from the Palestinians in neighboring countries is resolved. and skepticism from other Arabs. This should not surprise American diplomats see these gestures as down pay- us, even if it seems to have surpised our president. ments on the normalization of relations with Israel that the The current government of Israel rejects trading land Arab League proposed at Beirut in 2002 in the so-called for peace. It sees itself as on the verge of achieving a level “Arab Peace Initiative.” But the Arabs premised their will- of colonization of Palestinian Arab land that will make any- ingness to accept Israel on its reaching an acceptable agree- thing resembling a Palestinian state physically impossible. ment with the Palestinians. With Israel now neither doing In the exclusively Jewish state of Israel that its leading fig- nor promising anything that might lead to an acceptable ures envisage, only Jews will be full citizens. Some Arabs status for the Palestinians, the Arabs see no reason to ap- will have limited rights, but most will live in an archipelago pease it. Nor do they any longer feel obligated by friend- of checkpoint-ringed ghettos. They will be free, should ship to accommodate what they judge to be ill-considered they wish, to call these ghettos a “state;” but once they leave American requests. Palestine, Israel will not allow them to return. Given this Israeli vision, the American attempt to Two Dreadful Ironies arrange a settlement freeze so that negotiations can create Adding poignancy to the impasse are two dreadful a Palestinian state is, from the Israeli government point of ironies. The state of Israel was established to provide the view, at best an unwelcome distraction and at worst a hos- world’s Jews with a homeland in which they might safely tile act. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not fear enjoy the pursuit of happiness free from continuing perse- pressure from the U.S. to change course. He is confident cution by Gentiles. But the Jewish state has become the that his American lobby will arrange for Congress to punish most dangerous place on the planet for Jews to live. And the president if he tries to punish Israel for its intransigence. with anti-Semitism now universally rejected in its tradi-
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tional Christian heartland, Israel’s ac- Peace with the Palestinians istence with the Palestinians and tions and policies have become the other Arabs would, however, lead to primary significant stimulus to anti- would enable Israel for the immediate political crises in both Is- Jewish animus there and elsewhere. rael and the United States. The ad- Meanwhile, the replacement of first time to be accepted ministration speaks with determina- Zionist idealism, humanism and sec- tion, but is it really prepared to risk ularism with the cynicism, racism by 340 million Arabs and this? and religiosity of contemporary Is- Peace with the Palestinians raeli politics has precipitated a 1.2 billion non-Arab Muslims would enable Israel for the first time mounting moral crisis and loss of to be accepted by 340 million Arabs confidence among many committed as a legitimate part of and 1.2 billion non-Arab Muslims as to the Jewish state. a legitimate part of the Middle East. Although some settlers continue the Middle East. It would thereby end the conflict in to arrive, one-fifth of Israelis now re- the Holy Land. The key to deradi- side abroad. Jewish emigration is ac- calization of the Arab and Muslim celerating. Meanwhile, the Arab population of Israel and worlds, and to ending their violent backlash against the the occupied territories continues to grow, as does the size West, it is also the prerequisite for the restoration of peace of the Palestinian diaspora. By 2015, barring mass deporta- within the realm of Islam. tion, half the people in Israel and the occupied territories The alternative is the current Israeli government’s effort will be Arabs. Thereafter, Jews will be a declining minority. to impose a Jewish-dominated state dotted with little Arab The international community — including, I daresay, most ghettos. This is a “success” that Israelis would almost cer- of the Jewish diaspora — does not accept the settler propo- tainly come to regret bitterly. Would a state seen by the sitions that Jews can and should by divine right entrench world as embodying racism and religious bigotry retain the their rule over the Arabs of the Holy Land, or define them support of the Jewish diaspora? Would the United States as morally inconvenient and deport them. An antiapartheid- continue indefinitely to guarantee its security? The safety style campaign of ostracism, boycott and disinvestment of such an Israel and its citizens would depend on the so- against this version of a Jewish state has already begun. far undemonstrated ability of intimidation, ruthlessly sus- In combination, current trends portend the perpetua- tained, to grind Arab resistance into acquiescence. Cairo tion of violent struggle by the Palestinians against their Is- and Amman would have to be kept within a Camp David raeli overlords, even as the Jewish state is isolated from framework that Egyptians and Jordanians, if allowed to without and corrodes from within. These trends lead to es- vote, would even now overwhelmingly repudiate. calating antagonism between the United States and the Israel’s right to exist as a state in the Middle East would Arab and Muslim worlds. Given the self-identification of almost certainly be reviewed in intermittent tests of arms, many Jews with the state of Israel, these trends also risk a conducted — as in the case of the Crusader kingdoms in rebirth of anti-Semitism and a spillover of violence to the Palestine — over decades, if not centuries. Israel would Jewish diaspora. have to sustain military hegemony in perpetuity over larger, ever more populous and ever more modernized Arab and Peace — Or the Alternative Muslim neighbors. If these conditions were not met, as So where does this leave the Obama administration’s they almost certainly could not be, this unilaterally imposed peace project? In Israel’s own estimation and that of the re- outcome would be an invitation to protracted Arab and gion, the Jewish state is at a turning point. Time is running Muslim struggle against Israel and its supporters abroad. out on the prospects for peaceful engagement between it, It is hard to see this as a formula that leads to anything the Palestinians, other Arabs and non-Arab Muslims. No but eventual disaster for Israel and its foreign backers, now peace is conceivable without the full use of American moral essentially limited to the United States. Israel’s nuclear doc- and economic leverage to bring Israel to the negotiating trine — based as it is on an amalgam of Armageddon with table. A decision by Washington to compel Israel to make the heroic suicide at Masada — seems to recognize this. On the choices necessary to achieve mutually respectful coex- the whole, for sensible people in Israel and for Americans,
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the peaceful emergence of a viable The best thing the sion of civilian control of the military Palestinian state in the occupied ter- — delegating its formulation to the ritories and Gaza looks like a much United States could do for generals. It did not follow through. better bet than self-isolation. It ended up adopting yet another In the meantime, the region Iraq now is to engage military-proposed campaign plan. presents other challenges — even if This one features a pacification ef- none of them has the transformative Baghdad’s neighbors. fort extending over as much as an- potential of a peace or continued other decade. But al-Qaida has warfare in the Holy Land. Let me relocated to Pakistan from Afghani- now turn briefly to these. stan. Neither the Taliban leadership nor anyone else in Afghanistan seems to want it to come back. Iraq and Related Challenges The proposed pacification campaign is called a “strat- It is good that the end of the American misadventure in egy,” but it is not. It strains to find a military way to trans- Iraq is in sight. But its termination is not likely to repair form Afghanistan, even though its authors — who are very the injury it did to the standing of the United States in ei- smart soldiers — recognize there is none. We are still look- ther the international or Muslim communities. The “surge” ing for a strategy backed by force. In the meantime, we averted disaster; the withdrawal may yet bring it. The post- continue the use of force as a very inadequate substitute occupation order in Iraq is unlikely to emerge smoothly or for strategy. without further stressing regional stability. In the land be- tween the two rivers, the United States will leave behind a Iranian Gains battleground of grievances. The Kurdish and Sunni Arab This brings me, at last, to Iran. Tehran had nothing to minorities, among others, must likely undergo still more do with the assault on America on 9/11, but no nation has suffering before things settle down. There will be no har- benefited more from the American reaction to it than the vest of good will from the carnage in Iraq. Islamic Republic. Its revolution seemed to be flickering The same seems likely to be true of our eight-year in- out when 9/11 happened. In short order, its greatest tervention in Afghanistan. We began it with simple and enemy, the United States, then eliminated its other ene- straightforward goals — the apprehension of al-Qaida and mies in both Kabul and Baghdad and embarked on a mili- the chastisement of its Afghan hosts. But these goals have tary rampage through the Islamic world that estranged been buried in a barrage of competing ideological and spe- Americans from our traditional allies there. But wait! It cial-interest objectives. The result is combat in a political gets even better from the Iranian point of view. vacuum — a war whose only apparent theme is now West- In Afghanistan, the Iranians have been able to sit on the ern hostility to militant Islam. This has destabilized Pak- sidelines and watch us exhaust ourselves in inconclusive istan and nurtured a particularly virulent form of terrorism warfare. In Iraq, Iran is the dominant foreign influence in there and in the Pakistani diaspora. It has spurred a recent the country’s newly sectarian politics. (Of course, no one surge in financial contributions to the Taliban as an appar- can say whether Baghdad will continue its de facto alliance ently heroic resistance to infidel trespasses on Islam. with Tehran after the United States withdraws.) Israel and What then to do about Afghanistan, where everyone ad- the United States brushed aside efforts by Damascus to di- mits the most likely outcome is now failure? If you ask a re- lute its longstanding dependence on Tehran, thus cement- ligious scholar or ideologue, you will hear a sermon. From ing rather than eroding Iran’s influence in Syria. an economist, expect a development scheme. Ask a non- The 2006 Israeli savaging of Lebanon drove Iran’s client governmental organization, and prepare to receive a pro- movement, Hezbollah, onto the commanding heights of gram proposal. Ask a general what must be done, and you Lebanese politics. This reduced Tehran’s need to go through will get a crisp salute and the best campaign plan military Damascus to affect events in Lebanon or to reach northern science can devise. People come up with the solutions they Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli and American efforts to ostracize know how to put together. and overthrow the elected Hamas government in Palestine The Obama administration briefly showed signs that it left it nowhere to go but into the arms of Iran. Assertively was taking charge of policy rather than — in a strange eva- Shiite Iran has, for the first time, acquired the Sunni Arab
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following it had long sought. Current In Afghanistan, the not in the game. They will not step American policy seems clueless about forward to take the lead in addressing how to reverse these Iranian gains. Iranians have been able to the disputes of which I have been Meanwhile, Tehran seems on track speaking. Hence the need for contin- to acquire the ability to field its own sit on the sidelines and uing American leadership. deterrent to the threats of nuclear at- tack Iranians have serially heard from watch us exhaust ourselves Iraq and the Region Saddam’s Iraq, successive Israeli gov- So what is to be done? In the case ernments and George W. Bush’s in inconclusive warfare. of Israel and Palestine, a failure to de- America. David Ben-Gurion wrote cide is, in fact, a fateful decision. The the book on how to build a clandes- avoidance of choice risks future tine nuclear weapons capability. He skillfully appeased tragedy for America, as well as for Israel and the Arabs. President John F. Kennedy’s passion for nonproliferation The best thing the United States could do for Iraq now even as his government subverted and circumvented it. is to engage Baghdad’s neighbors. All should share our in- The ayatollahs have read and absorbed the Israeli playbook, terest in supporting non-violent Iraqi solutions to Iraqi minus — one hopes — the bit about Masada. Israelis, bet- problems. We need to work with Turkey and Arab allies to ter than anyone, know how this script ends — not in a war enlist Syria, Iran and others in this task and hold them to it. that secures their nuclear monopoly in the region. It is time In the region as a whole, the American effort to build a to start thinking about how to mitigate the undeniable dan- coalition of opposition to Iran has failed. We must now join gers of an Iranian, as well as an Israeli, nuclear arsenal. our allies and friends in offering those who have come to I must not close without a brief mention of the long- depend on Tehran alternatives to doing so. Iran is a proud standing Arab friends of the United States and the West in country that will not surrender to threats. Its people re- the Persian Gulf and Red Sea regions. Despite welcome main obsessed with the affront they believe we pose to their new activism on the part of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the national identity, independence and honor among nations. countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have to a great Without a parallel normalization of U.S.-Iranian relations, extent been bystanders as a strange combination of Ameri- there is no hope of resolving the nuclear issue in a way that can diplomatic default and military activism has dismantled mitigates its menace. Pres. Obama’s several messages to the regional order that once protected them. Iraq no longer the Iranian people have opened a path to respectful Iran- balances Iran. The United States no longer constrains Is- ian-American dialogue that might lead to this. We must rael, which has never behaved more belligerently. Iran has persist in inviting Tehran to walk this path with us. acquired unprecedented prestige and influence among Finally, in Afghanistan, we continue to lack a compre- Arabs and Muslims. The next stage of nuclear proliferation hensive strategy. We must leverage religious and tribal re- is upon the region. For the first time ever, Shiism dominates alities rather than seeking to overturn them. Our objective the politics of Arab states traditionally ruled by Sunnis. Is- should be to consolidate the exclusion of al-Qaida from lamist terrorism menaces Egyptian and Gulf Arab domestic Afghan territory. To do this, we must work with Pakistan tranquility, as well as that of the West. The United States, and in partnership with friendly Arab and Muslim countries, once attentive to Arab security and other concerns, is now not at cross-purposes with them; and we must support, not obsessed with its own issues and objectives in the region. undercut, the Pashtun tribes. This, not a Western military The Persian Gulf Arabs have the financial resources but presence on Afghan soil, is how we helped Afghans expel neither the institutions nor the will to mount the unified the Soviets from their homeland. This, ratified by a recon- effort needed to cope with these challenges. They are vened loya jirga and supported with generous economic as- adrift, not sailing to a new strategic strong point. The drift sistance, is how we can keep al-Qaida out of Afghanistan is taking them away from their traditional reliance on while we work to expel it from Pakistan. America and toward new partners. These are mainly the Pres. Obama’s message to the world’s Muslims in Cairo so-called BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and last June illuminated a different way forward than the road China, plus South Africa. But Egypt and the Gulf Arab we appear to be on. We can yet take that path. It is time to states seem destined to remain on the strategic sidelines, do so. ■
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DIPLOMACY REBOOTED: MAKING DIGITAL STATECRAFT A REALITY
THE STATE DEPARTMENT IS NOW IN A POSITION TO BUILD NOVEL APPLICATIONS TO SUPPORT THE MISSION OF DIPLOMACY.
BY CHRIS BRONK
ncredibly heartening is the news that at the close ployee and deploying OpenNet Plus, not only inside the Harry of this decade, the State Department’s top leader- S Truman Building but also in the hundreds of missions ship is once again taking a serious look at the role of around the globe. Admirably, the project was completed in information technology in the mission of diplomacy. roughly 18 months and deepened linkages between Main But the challenges will be very different than 10 State and overseas posts, as well as digitally connecting the de- years ago, when making the department a “wired” partment to the world. organization involved the deployment of digital in- Fernando Burbano, State’s first chief information officer, frastructure — mostly computer and networking hardware. prepared the foundation for what the late USIA-hand Wilson IThe new thrust of digitized diplomacy will primarily involve Dizard Jr. had begun to illuminate in his Meganet (Westview software, which will likely stand at odds with State’s current Press, 1998) and fleshed out in Digital Diplomacy — U.S. For- processes and culture. eign Policy in the Information Age (Praeger, 2001). As Dizard New applications and structures are now changing the face opined, “Digital diplomacy issues and techniques have had to of IT. Cloud and mobile computing, browser-based applica- be shoehorned into a policymaking system run by officials who tions, weblogs and social media will change the way almost all were initially uninterested in and often suspicious of the sub- information workers (including diplomats) do their jobs, and ject.” Nonetheless, Sec. Powell recognized that foreign affairs may challenge the method by which the entire department would have to go digital, and ordered that the infrastructure functions. for making that transition be constructed at breakneck speed. State is now connected, but must take stock and determine Thanks to this executive interest, Burbano got the Internet the best avenues for building on the digital foundation con- onto the department’s desktops, and did it quickly. structed nearly a decade ago. The most significant change in State is now in a position to build novel applications to sup- diplomacy since the advent of the telegram is at hand. port the mission of diplomacy. It does so in interesting times. After a few years of post–Internet bubble reflection, the pace Opening the Net of change and development in the IT sector is once again surg- Wiring State was a project given highest priority by former ing. While some technologies will fall into what IT consul- Secretary of State Colin Powell, who doggedly pursued the tancy Gartner, Inc., labels “the trough of disillusionment,” goal of getting Internet computers on the desktop of each em- many will thrive, becoming de facto standards for organiza- tional communications and productivity. The department will A Foreign Service officer from 2002 to 2006, Chris Bronk is a need to make wise bets on what standards it can accept and fellow at Rice University’s James A. Baker III Institute for Pub- which ones it should ignore. lic Policy. He also teaches in Rice’s computer science depart- In doing so, its leadership must stay focused on the infor- ment. He served in the State Department Office of eDiplo- mation piece of IT, adopting technologies that more effectively macy, where he participated in the development of Diplopedia. accommodate the complexity of international affairs and man-
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age the “information tsunami” that mation. IT facilitates political and eco- flows through the organization daily, nomic reporting, is key to visa adjudica- threatening to swamp those charged The most significant tion, and delivers new media for public with crafting our nation’s foreign policy. diplomacy. Nearly a decade later, the change in diplomacy since words of former Director General of IT and the Mission the Foreign Service and Under Secre- of Diplomacy the advent of the telegram tary of State for Political Affairs Marc We live at a time when half the Grossman at the Net Diplomacy con- planet is able to log on to a communi- is likely at hand. ference in 2001 remain true: “Vital to cations medium where there are al- our ability to achieve [our diplomatic] most no barriers to international ex- goals will be an ability to create and, if change of information — the Internet. we are lucky, lead a diplomacy for the This connectivity, of course, has al- 21st century. The ability to manage and ready changed the practice of diplo- nical breakthroughs. master information technology will be macy. For nearly a century we relied Diplomacy is harder to categorize in vital if we are to succeed.” upon trusted envoys to serve the na- a spreadsheet or win-loss columns. We So how well has State done at meet- tional interest in distant foreign capi- know that diplomacy is an information- ing Grossman’s mandate? I would tals, employing the telegraph to stay in intensive business, but we have not en- argue that it has achieved what most touch with the mother country, usually tirely figured out how to apply tech- government organizations have, in via the briefest of messages. Today, nology to meet the mission of statecraft, roughly the same period of time. It has communications may flow from a an area populated by an ever-increas- implemented an IT strategic plan, with BlackBerry to Berlin, Bamako or ing number of actors, many of whom the emphasis on the capital T. That has Baghdad instantaneously. are not states. brought a rise in data traffic and the Yet though the department is con- need for larger digital “pipes” connect- nected, wired and wirelessly, by fiber Getting the Balance Right ing Washington to the world. and satellite, its official communication Today, IT is the State Department’s Day-to-day expectations of big “T,” channel remains the same telegraphi- electronic nervous system. Where it which falls under the auspices of the cally-based cable format that George was once viewed as a career-enhancing deputy chief information officer for Kennan used to send his prescient skill to learn how paper moved around operations, are straightforward, but analysis from Moscow in 1946. E-mail the department, it is probably more daunting: keep the networks up and has replaced the telegraph, of course; useful today to understand where the running 24/7, year-round; make sure no but the organizational process built bits flow. E-mail is the overwhelmingly data are lost or corrupted; and strive for around it has yet to leave the building. dominant form of communication, increased efficiency and declining cost. For all the discussion of technology, ul- likely making up more than half of the The other side of IT in the mission timately its adoption and use are largely digital traffic across the department’s of diplomacy is the big “I,” or informa- dependent upon how well it fits an or- network. Entrusted with delivery and tion. As hard as IRM’s operations job ganization’s process. storage of the bits is State’s IT organ, may be, the information or knowledge Organizational change rarely comes the Bureau of Information Resource piece requires not only an eye for effi- easily, and is often prompted by crisis. Management, which runs the enter- ciency, but a vision for the future of In industry, if companies fail to inno- prise network that delivers cables and diplomacy. “Will Twitter be a good vate or adapt, they soon decline and e-mail, accesses Web pages and com- public diplomacy tool?” “Can blogs fade away, but government is different. pletes telephone calls. IRM is the supplement cables?” “Is e-mail over- Without a balance sheet by which to physical apparatus of the department’s loading desk officers?” These are just measure effectiveness, identifying met- digital nervous system, its intercon- some of the many questions to be con- rics to evaluate the performance of an nected system of links and nodes. But sidered. agency can prove elusive. there’s a lot of IT at State that’s not in An organization can spend all the At the IRS or U.S. Postal Service, IRM; perhaps as much as half of the money in the world on hardware, but benchmarking efficiency can be as department’s $1.2 billion IT budget re- without ideas on how to adopt and har- straightforward as counting tax returns sides in other bureaus. ness game-changing technologies to or pieces of mail. And at NASA and the Across the department, information distill a more useful information pic- National Institutes of Health, success technology is employed to transmit, ture or manage relationships, that in- can be identified by scientific or tech- process, digest and disseminate infor- vestment will produce scant returns.
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As a key component of the nation’s “soft power,” diplomacy will need to harness the potential of big “I” tech- nologies if Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s vision of “smart power” is to be realized. We know there is no reason for U.S. diplomats not to be the best-informed on the planet. The challenge is in finding new applications, ways of working and skill sets to do that. For the department, the information resources available must not only facilitate communica- tion, but intense and rapid learning.
Getting the Size Right In computing, government has been present from the beginning. In 1946, the same year that Kennan trans- mitted his famous “Long Telegram,” the University of Pennsylvania built ENIAC, the world’s first true digital computer, for the United States Army. For every large mainframe that IBM or the Digital Equipment Corp. de- signed, Uncle Sam could be counted on as a major customer. From the 1950s through the 1980s, the U.S. gov- ernment bought big systems, usually composed of large computing cores connected to large numbers of “dumb” terminals. State was no different than the De- partment of Defense or the Federal Aviation Administration in seeing merit in automation. It rolled out the Foreign Affairs Information Manage- ment Effort, the first of many infor- mation management plans, in 1964. FAIME was an interagency effort, aimed at modernizing “the flow and handling of information within and among the Department of State, the Agency for International Develop- ment, the United States Information Agency, and the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.” Though well intended, it died quietly a few years later. After significant investment in Wang hardware and software, the department eventually made its way to the same
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Windows-based personal computers send and receive the day’s cable traffic. just about everyone else in America was All department employees should see buying in the 1990s. This did not mean SMART will probably be their responsibilities and capabilities that State’s big-project mindset had change due to the continuing march of been relegated to the dustbin, however. the last big IT project of progress, if they haven’t already. If this Indeed, for most of the past decade, means that each FS member should be IRM has put considerable effort into its kind undertaken at the a blogger for the department at one SMART — the Department of State’s point or another, so much the better. Messaging and Archive Retrieval Tool- department, and the last While State has made significant set. strides in the adoption of IT to perform SMART represents an increasingly to cater to the networked the mission of diplomacy, they are obsolescent orthodoxy of computer-dri- modest in comparison with the invest- ven productivity designed around ap- personal computer. ment the Pentagon has made in apply- plications on each user’s PC and ing information technology to its servers. When complete, SMART will missions under the “Revolution in Mil- probably be the last big IT project of its itary Affairs” banner. An IT-driven kind to be undertaken at the depart- overhaul of diplomacy will require still ment, and probably the last one to bly still want computers and monitors greater investment, outreach and ac- cater to the networked personal com- back at the office, the expectation is ceptance of culture change. puter, as well. that wherever they go, their data will On that last point, the stark reality Three “Cs” conspire against such go with them. As anyone who has set- remains that the transition at State future projects: collaboration software, tled a trivia debate with an iPhone can from a Cold War posture to one able cybersecurity concerns and, finally, the tell you, we are moving toward a time to cope with the multilayered contem- potential of the computing cloud. Col- of device-based augmented cognition porary international system is incom- laboration software is a necessity for (and distraction). In this environment, plete. The department will need to work with other agencies, nongovern- tools that quickly connect users to valu- look more closely at multilateral diplo- mental organizations, industry and ac- able information with minimal sorting macy and the value of “intermestic” re- ademia, but it is confounded by many and sifting are desirable. Users want lations, where allegiance to country is barriers to use, such as large on-com- programs that will tell them what they on a relatively low rung. puter software downloads or license may want to read or watch based on To tackle this, a bulking-up of the costs. The vehicle for collaboration is prior-usage behavior and interests — department’s big “I,” little “t” compo- the Internet browser, not something which Amazon is already doing with its nents is needed. A revitalized infor- that comes in a box. Cybersecurity, for customer data. For the desk officer or mation skunkworks built on the model its part, will require more robust net- press attaché, wouldn’t it be nice to of IRM’s Office of eDiplomacy — work controls, increased simplicity and have machines doing some of the read- preferably reporting high up the ad- limited functionality in which the ing and flagging before messages hit ministrative chain, perhaps directly to browser replaces many client pro- the inbox? the Deputy Secretary of State — grams on each desktop PC. would send an important message on The third “C” — the “cloud” — is a An Information Plan efforts to infuse innovation into the label for always-on networked re- News of the creation of innovation practice of diplomacy. In addition, the sources, from spreadsheets and word adviser positions at State is heartening, department’s CIO needs to become a processors to storage and e-mail. as well. It is already working with so- true chief, not just the person at the Cloud computing — what we thought cial media — Facebook, Twitter and helm of IRM. of a few years back as “service-oriented YouTube — and strategies for engag- Finally, career tracks that reward architecture” — will exert a powerful ing in many-to-many dialogue with for- IT-savvy generalists and recruitment force on government IT. It is back to eign publics, revolutionizing the busi- efforts designed to draw more technical the future, with massive server farms, ness of public diplomacy. and engineering graduates into the the the new mainframes of the day, sup- Also vital is adoption of this tech- department ought to be considered. porting Web-connected smartphones, nology by the department’s entire work Tempering any vision for IT at BlackBerrys and, the latest rage, net- force. IT is no longer simply the do- State, we must recognize that science books, as well as desktops and laptops. main of the embassy communicator, and technology have a somewhat tar- While State employees will proba- toiling in some vault somewhere to nished history there. James E. Webb,
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We must recognize that science and technology have a somewhat tarnished history at State.
who served as under secretary of State under Dean Acheson, devoted consid- erable effort to allocating additional re- sources to science and technology in diplomacy. But those pursuits took a back seat to the Cold War. Outmaneu- vered by Paul Nitze, Webb abandoned this work and stepped down, eventually becoming President John F. Kennedy’s pick to lead NASA through the run-up to the Apollo moon landings. Now we are again at a pivotal point for diplomacy. The leaders of State and Defense recognize that soft power, en- gagement and options other than force are all vital to the U.S. position in the world. Sec. Clinton is not only firmly engaged in the business of diplomacy but attentive to the needs of the de- partment. She has, in the words of David Rothkopf, “defined a role for herself in the Obamaverse: often bad cop to his good cop, spine stiffener when it comes to tough adversaries and nurturer of new strategies.” The department’s IT leaders should do everything possible to see that ad- vances in State’s digital domain get a prominent place under the “new strate- gies” heading. To meet its most important strategic goals — on global warming, the con- tinuing economic crisis, nonprolifera- tion and a host of regional issues — the department will require a practical, pragmatic digital strategy of the sort that Barack Obama employed to win the presidency. ■
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AFSA American Foreign Service Association ANNUAL REPORT Working for a Stronger AFSA 2009 BY SUSAN R. JOHNSON, PRESIDENT
he past year marked the 85th anniver- when management and labor complaints with the AFSA sary of AFSA’s creation as a profes- work together, across all FS Elections Committee, which Tsional association. Overall, it was an agencies, to improve policies determined that violations had eventful year. AFSA’s longstanding effort and promote equity for all. occurred, but lacked the to close the overseas pay gap for entry and The project to renovate resources to determine whether mid-level Foreign Service employees, ener- AFSA’s long-neglected head- the violations affected the out- getically pursued by former AFSA Presidents quarters was successfully com- come of the election. The Tony Holmes and John Naland, State Vice pleted and the displaced pro- committee certified the results President Steve Kashkett and AFSA pro- fessional staff moved back last of the election and advised the
fessional staff, finally met with at least tem- spring. The modernized AUSTIN TRACY complainants that they had the porary success, supported by Secretary of office space now offers new facilities to right to file a complaint with the Depart- State Hillary Rodham Clinton. With the expand outreach, build alliances, improve ment of Labor. Several did so. help of key members of Congress, this operations and better serve and support our AFSA is working with the Department inequity should be eliminated by 2011 members and their families. Our upgrad- of Labor to clarify and streamline our elec- through three successive pay increases. State ed building provides a strong foundation tion procedures. and USAID implemented the pay-gap fix for bringing our Web site and IT infra- The Governing Board held a strategic immediately and were soon joined by FAS structure into line with the times — a planning retreat in early November and and FCS. IBB needed extra “encourage- Governing Board priority. AFSA’s former identified four overarching goals, with key ment” but the issue is largely resolved there, legislative director, Ian Houston, whose ded- deliverables under each: (1) securing as well. icated work on the overseas comparability resources, improving operations and pro- This success demonstrates how the inter- pay issue contributed directly to our suc- tecting benefits; (2) increasing cooperation ests of the Foreign Service are best served cess, was selected as our new executive direc- with management and presence in policy tor and is working to improve development; (3) improving the image and internal structure and opera- outreach of the Foreign Service; and (4) tions. improving internal AFSA organization. For The 2009 AFSA Governing details, refer to the January issue of AFSA Board elections were strongly News. contested and highlighted the AFSA is reaching out to management pressing need for reform of our across all five Foreign Service agencies. At election procedures — partic- the State Department we are talking to the ularly as they relate to candi- Office of Policy Planning about how to dates’ means of communica- revive the Open Forum and encourage pro- tion with voters. Voters elect- ductive use of the Dissent Channel. With ed a mix of the two competing the Human Resources Bureau, we have slates, and the new Governing stressed the value of AFSA participation in MICHAEL LAIACONA Board quickly came together to important processes such as the Quadren- AFSA State VP Steve Kashkett (right) officially welcomes Secretary Clinton on her first day at the State Department, Jan. 22, 2009, work for the interests of AFSA nial Diplomacy and Development Review while AFSA President John Naland (left) and audio technician Travis and the Foreign Service. and Secretary Clinton’s Diplomacy 3.0 pro- Lightfoot look on. Several candidates filed gram. Beyond the foreign affairs agencies,
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AFSA is also seeking a more institutionalized role in the preparation of studies and reports such as “A Foreign Affairs Budget for the Future,” the joint American Academy of Diplomacy- Stimson Center study that paved the way to increased resources for the five foreign affairs A Message from agencies, and the Academy of American Diplomacy’s proposed analysis of the training and professional development needed by the Foreign Service of the 21st century. Executive Director Demand for the services of AFSA’s grievance attorneys has grown steadily in recent years Ian Houston and we continue to seek constructive engagement with management. Key committees in the House and Senate invited AFSA to testify in hearings concern- ing Government Accountability Office reports, addressing issues such as mid-level staffing he AFSA Annual Report keeps gaps and up-stretches, especially in hard-to-fill posts; deficiencies in language capability and you, our “shareholders,” informed training capacity; the exponential growth in requirements for diplomatic security; and gaps Tof our overall activities, mem- in benefits for civilian federal employees deployed in conflict zones. Testimony is posted bership trends and financial health. Our on our Web site (www.afsa.org). intent is to spotlight key matters of inter- 2010 promises to be a year of opportunities. Your Governing Board is committed to est to you. strengthening AFSA’s capacity, seeking more productive cooperation with management in 2009 marked the return of AFSA all five of our agencies and fostering a culture of excellence, teamwork and professionalism. We want to make our Foreign Service the effective agent of U.S. international leadership staff, at long last, to the freshly renovat- that our nation requires, by working to make it better supported, more respected and a more ed headquarters. Soon after, AFSA said satisfying career choice. Please let us hear from you during this coming year. Engaged mem- farewell to an excellent Governing bers make AFSA’s voice stronger. ❏ Board under the leadership of John Naland, and we welcomed a newly elect- ed and vibrant board under the direc- tion of Susan Johnson. Life in the Throughout the changes, our lead- ership (both the former and the new) Foreign and the AFSA staff remained extraor- Service dinarily dedicated to serving our unique BY BRIAN AGGELER membership. This spirit of commitment and volunteerism extends to the many standing committees of AFSA, as well. As always, we are very grateful for our members’ support on many levels, and the staff looks forward to serving you in 2010. Please feel free to contact me at [email protected] anytime. ❏
AFSA HEADQUARTERS: Staff: Governing Board: Executive Director Ian Houston: [email protected] (202) 338-4045; Fax: (202) 338-6820 PRESIDENT: Susan R. Johnson Business Department STATE DEPARTMENT AFSA OFFICE: Controller Kalpna Srimal: [email protected] STATE VP: Daniel Hirsch (202) 647-8160; Fax: (202) 647-0265 Assistant Controller Cory Nishi: [email protected] USAID VP: Francisco Zamora Labor Management USAID AFSA OFFICE: FAS VP: Henry Schmick (202) 712-1941; Fax: (202) 216-3710 General Counsel Sharon Papp: [email protected] FCS VP: Keith Curtis FCS AFSA OFFICE: Deputy General Counsel Zlatana Badrich: [email protected] Labor Management Specialist James Yorke: [email protected] RETIREE VP: Robert Houdek (202) 482-9088; Fax: (202) 482-9087 Senior Staff Attorney Neera Parikh: [email protected] SECRETARY: F.A. “Tex” Harris AFSA WEB SITE: www.afsa.org Staff Attorney Michael Willats: [email protected] FSJ: [email protected] Office Manager Christine Warren: [email protected] TREASURER: Andrew Winter PRESIDENT: [email protected] USAID Senior Labor Management Adviser Douglas Broome: [email protected] STATE REPS: Carleton Bulkin, Jorge Delfin, STATE VP: [email protected] USAID Staff Assistant Patrick Bradley: [email protected] Mary Glantz, Les Hickman, Joyce Namde, RETIREE VP: [email protected] Member Services USAID VP: [email protected] Member Services Director Janet Hedrick: [email protected] Julia Stewart, Mike Unglesbee, Sharon White, FAS VP: [email protected] Member Services Representative Michael Laiacona: [email protected] Teresa Yata FCS VP: [email protected] Administrative Assistant and Office Manager Ana Lopez: [email protected] USAID REPS: Michael Henning, Glenn Rogers Communications, Marketing and Outreach Retiree Counseling & Legislation Coordinator Bonnie Brown: [email protected] FCS REP: Rebecca Balogh AFSA News Director of Communications Thomas Switzer: [email protected] FAS REP: Melinda Sallyards Editor Francesca Kelly: [email protected] Legislative Director Casey Frary: [email protected] IBB REP: Al Pessin (202) 338-4045, ext. 516; Executive Assistant to the President Austin Tracy: [email protected] Fax: (202) 338-8244 Scholarship Director Lori Dec: [email protected] RETIREE REPS: On the Web: Scholarship Program Assistant Jonathan Crawford: [email protected] Janice Bay, Robert (Bill) Farrand, How to Contact Us: to Contact How Exploritas Administrator Bernard Alter: [email protected] David Passage, Molly Williamson www.afsa.org/fsj and www.fsjournal.org Marketing & Outreach Manager Asgeir Sigfusson: [email protected] Special Awards & Outreach Coordinator Perri Green: [email protected]
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AFSA Annual Report 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW
Labor Management: Steady Representation and Far-Reaching Victories
n 2009, the AFSA Labor Management other issues. Enforcement Training Center in Georgia to office provided timely guidance, assis- Two significant victories involved the represent them. Itance and representation on a vast array Foreign Commercial Service. In one case, In addition to our representation of indi- of employment and retirement-related the Grievance Board ordered FCS to pay an vidual employees, AFSA negotiated or con- issues to literally thousands of our State, employee a Residence Transaction Allow- sulted with the Department of State on a USAID, Commerce, Agriculture, IBB and ance covering closing costs and fees that wide variety of issues, including caps on the retiree members. could amount to as much as $25,000. In number of linked onward assignments at AFSA scored an important victory in another case, the board ordered FCS to issue 170 for employees volunteering for Iraq and June, when the Foreign Service Grievance a language incentive payment that the griev- Afghanistan in 2010; basic special agent Board found that the Department of State ant was entitled to for service between 2001 course training requirements and fitness-for- had violated the Foreign Affairs Manual by and 2004. The employee received a check duty examination regulations for DS failing to consider 68 recently promoted for more than $25,000. agents; new foreign contact reporting and members of the Senior Foreign Service for In another important development, intent-to-marry regulations extending cer- performance pay in 2007. The FSGB AFSA’s Legal Defense Fund provided tain benefits to domestic partners; and annu- ordered State to convene performance $5,000 to an FCS employee for retention of al promotion precepts. review boards to determine whether the a private attorney (an expert in security clear- — Sharon Papp, General Counsel grievants would have been awarded per- ances) in an appeal of the revocation of his formance pay had they been properly security clearance. The Office of Security reviewed. The department will review all alleged that the employee had made incon- SFS members who should have been eligi- sistent statements to Commerce Depart- Member Services: ble for performance pay (not just the 68 par- ment security agents during several inter- Reaching Out ties to the grievance) for the years 2007 and views yet denied the employee access to the 2008. agents’ reports of those interviews, thus in 2009 Another success came in April, when the depriving him of due process. At press time, Grievance Board found that the Foreign a decision had not been made. FSA welcomed 1,193 new members Agricultural Service had assigned three Civil Labor Management attorneys and other in 2009. Twenty-seven of those Service employees abroad without proper- professional staff also assisted hundreds of A invested in the association as lifetime ly advertising the position to FS employees, members with assignment issues, including members, and an additional 32 existing in violation of the AFSA/FAS collective bar- appealing Diplomatic Security Bureau members converted to lifetime membership. gaining agreement. FAS appealed the rul- assignment restrictions; security and cyber- AFSA continues its tradition of wel- ing to the Foreign Service Labor Relations security infractions and violations; DS, Office coming incoming officers and specialists to Board. In December, the FSLRB denied the of the Inspector General and Office of Civil lunch to inform them of the benefits of appeal and upheld the Grievance Board’s Rights investigations, including the inves- membership, and the association’s history, decision. tigation of scores of FS employees for alleged achievements and goals. In 2009, AFSA In addition to these far-reaching cases, Passport Information Electronic Records hosted 1,326 students in 18 A-100, special- AFSA assisted hundreds of employees System violations; congressional staff in- ist and Development Leadership Initiative with grievances over false and prejudicial quiries; and many other issues, including classes. Additionally, AFSA hosted three evaluations, denial of tenure or promotion, credit for prior military service, in-state hail-and-farewell receptions for employees low ranking and referral to the Performance tuition rates for children of FS members, lan- participating in the retirement seminars at Standards Board; disciplinary actions rang- guage incentive pay, R&R, allowances and FSI. ing from reprimands and suspensions with- reimbursement of medical expenses. We More than 1,900 members participat- out pay to separation for cause; entry-level were handed a favorable ruling for two DS ed in AFSA’s six insurance plans in 2009. salaries, skill code changes, allowances, candidates facing expulsion, after our — Janet Hedrick, Director, Rehabilitation Act violations and many attorneys traveled to the Federal Law Member Services
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AFSA Annual Report 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW
Legislative Affairs: A Rewarding Year
he year began on an upbeat note. The The Foreign Commercial Service, the fairly and equally under the law. On Nov. State Department and USAID bud- Foreign Agricultural Service and the Inter- 6, the president signed into law the Un- Tgets called for a significant increase national Broadcasting Bureau received employment Compensation Extension in both personnel and funding. AFSA was additional funding, as well, to support Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-92), allowing mem- able to achieve, for all branches that we rep- increases of American and locally-engaged bers of the Foreign Service to take advan- resent, many of our long-sought legislative staff and FS comparability costs. tage of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax goals, including comparability pay, fund- credit. ing and equality for members of the Foreign Unused Sick Leave Service. On Oct. 28, President Obama signed the Domestic Partners National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. Following a June 17 announcement by Overseas Comparability Pay 111-84). This contained provisions that will President Barack Obama extending certain AFSA’s long-term fight to end the benefit federal employees in several ways, two federal benefits to same-sex domestic Foreign Service overseas pay gap took a of which are particularly important for the partners, Sec. Clinton announced an addi- major step forward with inclusion of key Foreign Service. First, the bill permits tional list of benefits that would be extend- language in the Fiscal Year 2009 Supple- employees in the Federal Employee Retire- ed to the same-sex partners of members of mental Appropriations bill, signed into law ment System and Foreign Service Pension the Foreign Service. These include diplo- in June (P.L. 111-32). Additional language System to count unused sick leave toward matic passports, inclusion on employee was included that ended the gap for FY 2010, years of service when calculating their annu- travel orders, use of medical facilities and in a provision signed into law as part of the ities. Second, employees who had previously other benefits. Although this did not FY 2010 Omnibus Appropriations bill (P.L. retired under FERS and FSPS, and had require a change in federal law, several 111-117) in December. AFSA made spe- waived retirement credit for their years of members of Congress were key in forging cial efforts to be certain that these fixes federal service, can now, upon re-employ- discussions with the Secretary on this long- applied to all FS agencies. We thank our ment with the federal government, redeposit overdue change. members, key supporters on Capitol Hill, the annuity contributions they had with- and many colleagues at the State Depart- drawn, plus interest. AFSA on Capitol Hill ment and other agencies who helped AFSA continued to have a strong make this long-term goal possible. We will First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit presence on Capitol Hill during 2009, meet- continue to advocate a permanent fix. AFSA worked with Congress to help ing with key members and congressional bring about another victory, ensuring that staff to brief them on issues critical to the Funding the Foreign Service community is treated Foreign Service. AFSA was also invited to The Foreign Service agencies all saw an testify at several congressional increase in funding this year, which will help hearings. Former President bring our diplomatic corps to full capaci- John Naland appeared before ty, after many years of insufficient resources. the House Appropriations Sub- Only the Agriculture Appropriations Bill committee on State/Foreign (P.L. 111-80) was passed and signed into Operations to speak about law on its own; all other funding increas- resources needed to build the es were part of the FY 2010 omnibus appro- work force, as well as FY 2010 priations bill. funding. Current President The diplomatic and consular programs Susan Johnson testified sever- for State received funding to hire more than al times before congressional 700 new Foreign Service personnel. USAID subcommittees on diplomatic
received funding for operating expenses and AUSTIN TRACY readiness and security. to hire 300 additional Foreign Service AFSA President Susan R. Johnson (right) and Amb. Ron Neumann — Casey Frary, employees. prepare to testify before the Senate on Sept. 24. Legislative Director
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AFSA Annual Report 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW
Outreach and Media: Getting the Word Out
FSA’s 2009 outreach initiatives pro- moted three important goals: broad- Aening the Foreign Service con- stituency; enhancing public awareness of global affairs and of the key role of the Foreign Service and diplomacy; and acti- vating the AFSA retiree constituency by involving it in significant programs that draw on retirees’ backgrounds and skills in JENNIFER DURINA telling our story to audiences nationwide. Amb. Marc Grossman, left, delivers Adair lecture while AFSA Communications Director Tom Switzer and A.U. Washington Semester Program Dean David Brown (right) look on. Speakers Program One of AFSA’s most effective outreach ing media entities including the Washington tor in supporting AFSA programs around elements is our Speakers Program, which Post, the New York Times, the Associated the country. This effort is already taking off, deployed nearly 500 Foreign Service retiree Press, NPR and CNN, among others. and AFSA members will see an increase in speakers during the year to explain the AFSA’s Memorial Plaque Ceremony programs in 2010 as a result of newly forged importance of U.S. diplomacy for American drew the heaviest media coverage in its his- partnerships. national interests to more than 30,000 atten- tory. Held at the State Department on Another highlight from among our dees in 44 states and Washington, D.C. Foreign Affairs Day (May 1), and featur- expanded outreach programs is AFSA’s Audiences ranged from world affairs coun- ing Secretary of State Hillary Rodham recently established presence on Facebook cils and universities to civic organizations, Clinton, it was covered by five network TV (www.facebook.com/afsapage), which to “town meetings” and high schools. cameras and some 10 journalists from date has garnered more than 1,200 fans. Of particular note: former Director major media. The result was in-depth treat- We urge you to become a Facebook fan of General of the Foreign Service and Under ment of this event via some 33 media out- AFSA if you have not done so already. Secretary of State for Political Affairs lets nationwide, including NBC, CNN, Ambassador Marc Grossman enthralled ABC, the Associated Press and NPR. Exploritas some 400 faculty and students at American The year saw big changes in the University’s annual Caroline and Ambassa- Outreach Elderhostel program, most notably its adop- dor Charles Adair Memorial Lecture, spon- AFSA expanded its outreach efforts in tion of a new name — Exploritas — and sored by AFSA, on “The Challenges Facing 2009 in an ever-evolving strategy to tell the the opening of enrollment to anyone over the Foreign Service” on Sept. 2. story of the Foreign Service to the American the age of 21. The AFSA Exploritas pro- Speakers were provided with issue public. The Fund for American Diplomacy gram also came under new leadership, as updates from AFSA, and were also encour- is our primary vehicle for public outreach, retired FSO Bernie Alter took over the port- aged to exhort audience members to con- and continues to support such outstand- folio from Janice Bay. The AFSA programs tact their congressional representatives to ing programs as the AFSA dissent awards remain highly popular, following the request sustained funding for U.S. diplo- and memorial plaques; our book, Inside a time-tested model of using retired FSOs to matic readiness. U.S. Embassy; and our minority intern pro- explain current issues in foreign policy from gram. One of these initiatives, the AFSA/ a Foreign Service perspective. More than Media Thursday Lunch Group internship pro- 700 people participated in AFSA’s programs AFSA’s media outreach efforts remained gram, inspired 2005 intern Stacy Sessions in 2009, which took place in Washington, intensive in 2009. Either directly or through to take the Foreign Service exam. She began D.C., Chautauqua, N.Y., St. Petersburg, Fla. AFSA retirees, we placed 62 interviews, let- her diplomatic career in June as one of 98 and Tucson, Ariz. ters to the editor, articles and press releases individuals in the 146th A-100 class. — Tom Switzer, Communications advocating increased public and congres- We also revived a corporate relations Director, and Asgeir Sigfusson, sional support for U.S. diplomacy in lead- initiative that aims to engage the private sec- Marketing/Outreach Manager
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AFSA Annual Report 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW
Foreign Service Journal : A More Accessible Web Presence
espite operating without Among e-readers, the most FRANCESCA KELLY AFSA student merit award winners at the Foreign office space or access to its popular issue, by far, was the Affairs Day merit awards reception, AFSA HQ, May Darchives for the first three March issue on coping with 1. Back row (left to right): Amb. C. Edward Dillery, months of the year, the Foreign unaccompanied assignments, Chairman of AFSA Committee on Education; Adam Service Journal continued to pro- with 2,826 unique visitors. Next Scott, Zachary Charles, Joshua Downes, Arjun Dheer, duce monthly issues without in popularity was the July-August Christopher Wilson, Joseph Kenny and AFSA President John Naland. Front row (left to right): interruption. issue featuring summer fiction, Stephanie Hunt, Rachel Midura, Megan Tribble, The Journal took a significant with 2,658 viewers, followed by Torrin Marquardt, Katherine Neitzke and Anna Leah step forward in upgrading its Web presence the May issue on FAS and FCS with 2,352. Berstein-Simpson. by contracting with a local company, The April focus on “NATO at 60” and the Texterity, to put each issue in a format that October issue on public diplomacy each is much easier to use and search, and is also had more than 2,000 viewers. Scholarship more attractive. Partly as a result of our One goal in upgrading our online pres- Program Highlights enhanced digital capabilities, we more than ence is to make the FSJ’s resources on the doubled the amount of online advertising Foreign Service and the practice of we had projected for 2009, a trend we hope American diplomacy more accessible to the nder the oversight of the AFSA to build on in the new year. broader public. So we are happy to note Committee on Education, the During 2009, 18,773 unique visitors, or that by the end of the year, approximate- UScholarship Program bestowed an average of 1,800 per issue, sought out ly 17 percent of our e-readers came to the $35,700 in Academic and Art Merit the new-format FSJ online. They read, on FSJ via the major search engines — look- Awards to 25 Foreign Service high school average, 11 pages per visitor. Given that, ing for information on “USAID foreign ser- seniors in 2009. in general, 15 percent of the visitors each vice” or “foreign service,” to cite two of the Meanwhile, 74 children of Foreign month were returnees, we estimate that the top search terms. We look forward to push- Service employees received AFSA need- Journal has a core online readership of ing that number up in 2010. based Financial Aid Scholarships for between 250 and 300. — Steven Alan Honley, Editor undergraduate college study in the 2009- 2010 school year, totaling $160,050. Between these two programs, AFSA has Foreign Service Books: been privileged to assist 99 students in 2009 with aid totaling $195,750 — the most Inside a U.S. Embassy AFSA has ever bestowed. In 2009, Ambassador Rozanne L. ales of AFSA’s popular introduction to the Foreign Service, Inside a U.S. Embassy, were (Roz) Ridgway established a Perpetual strong in 2009. Rising interest in Foreign Service careers, coupled with renewed enthu- Financial Aid scholarship, and Mr. Stephen Ssiasm for public service sparked by President Barack Obama’s election, has boosted Hubler renewed his scholarship. Mr. book sales for the year to 6,400. This brings the total number of books sold since its 2003 Norton W. Bell added to his scholarship, debut to about 73,000. Inside a U.S. Embassy has been adopted for more than 40 univer- and Mr. Eric Melby increased a scholarship sity courses, and a Chinese publisher is translating the book into Simple Chinese. honoring his parents. An all-new edition of Inside a U.S. Embassy, subtitled Diplomacy at Work, will be pub- DACOR increased its Financial Aid lished in the fall of 2010. AFSA received four offers from publishers for the new edition, Scholarship support by $5,000 to offer a but determined that the best path was to maintain our own role as the publisher. In con- total of $40,000 in scholarships in its name. nection with this decision, this year AFSA has partnered with Potomac Books for distrib- Finally, AFSA continues to participate in ution of Inside a U.S. Embassy and established Foreign Service Books as the book publish- the Combined Federal Campaign and ing division of the association. United Way. — Shawn Dorman, Editor/Publisher, Foreign Service Books — Lori Dec, Scholarship Director
54 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/MARCH 2010 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 55
AFSA Annual Report 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW
AFSA Plays Crucial Role in Landmark AAD Report: “A Foreign Affairs Budget for the Future”
FSA was a primary collaborator in a struction/stabilization — and provided through 2009. critical study, first launched in the fall Congress and the new president with a blue- • AFSA arranged press releases and arti- Aof 2008, and then promoted and uti- print for fixing the human capital crisis that cle placements for the report’s rollout in lized throughout 2009, by the American has hobbled diplomacy worldwide, crippled leading media, including the Washington Academy of Diplomacy and the Henry L. its response to emergencies and inappro- Post, and facilitated follow-on discussions Stimson Center in Washington, D.C. priately thrown additional foreign policy with other media nationwide. The report, “A Foreign Affairs Budget burdens onto the military in recent years. • After the report’s release, the American for the Future: Fixing the Crisis in In 2009, then-AFSA President John Academy of Diplomacy conducted a Diplomatic Readiness,” found that the State Naland joined study leaders such as Amb. nationwide public education program to Department, USAID and the other foreign Thomas Boyatt, Amb. Ronald Neumann, explain the realities of the Foreign Service affairs agencies will continue to lack the tools Amb. Thomas Pickering and others, in today, and how those institutions can be to meet today’s complex global challenges bringing the study’s message to lawmakers, strengthened to make our diplomacy more unless major increases in resources and per- prominent civic leaders and the general pub- effective. One part of that effort was to sonnel occur over the next five years. It lic, with positive results: additional resources, organize small groups of FS retirees to meet called for substantial investments in diplo- including new positions, have been allocat- with key lawmakers in their home districts. matic and development assistance to ed to the foreign affairs agencies. AFSA provided the names of (and mailed rebuild America’s foreign affairs capability, “This historic study made a genuine dif- invitations to) Foreign Service retiree including a nearly 50-percent increase in ference in shaping views and bringing about activists around the U.S. Many of them Foreign Service personnel. real change,” says AFSA Executive Director contacted their members of Congress A failure to act on these urgent needs, Ian Houston. advocating support for this critical resource according to the study, would leave our increase, and they also participated in nation ill-equipped to carry out a global lead- Pushing for Results AAD’s outreach programs. ership role or respond to problems such as AFSA facilitated the AAD/Stimson Project Chairman Amb. Thomas Boyatt terrorism, natural disasters and other situ- Center’s efforts through the following points to two things that distinguished the ations that demand a U.S. presence. actions: “FAB” project from the beginning. “First, The report made recommendations in • AFSA President John Naland provid- we saw the publication of the report as the the four major categories of foreign affairs ed input and helped introduce the report start, not the end, of the process. We spent activity — core diplomacy, public diplo- at its public and congressional launch, begin- as much money, sweat and tears lobbying macy, economic assistance and recon- ning in the fall of 2008 and continuing for our recommendations within the exec- utive and legislative branches as we did pro- AFSA Headquarters Ribbon-Cutting Ceremony ducing the report.” Left to right: AFSA “Second,” Boyatt continues, “we did not President John engage in pre-emptive capitulation. When Naland, former our recommendation for the addition of President Tony Holmes, Executive 4,735 new positions was published, most Director Ian Houston, colleagues reacted along the lines of ‘non- Treasurer Andrew Winter and former starter,’ ‘no way’ and ‘ridiculous.’ But in the President John last 15 months about 3,500 of those posi- Limbert cut the rib- bon to officially mark tions have been authorized and funded.” AFSA headquarters’ The report can be found at www.acad reopening, May 28. emyofdiplomacy.org/programs/fab_pro ject.html — Tom Switzer,
CHRISTINE WARREN Communications Director
MARCH 2010/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 55 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 56
AFSA Annual Report 2009 YEAR IN REVIEW
for a Foreign Service Office Management AFSA Awards: Specialist). In addition, Ken Kero-Mentz A Unique Tradition was named AFSA Representative of the Year. AFSA also presents other awards he annual awards ceremony took throughout the year, such as the Sinclaire place at the State Department on June Language Awards, an AFSA program T18. Senator Sam Nunn, the recipi- MIKKELA THOMPSON based on a bequest from Matilda W. Sin- ent of AFSA’s Lifetime Contributions to The AFSA award winners get to know each other claire, a former Foreign Service officer. Last American Diplomacy Award, was intro- before the June 18 ceremony at the State year, 11 foreign language students were Department. Left to right: Ken Kero-Mentz, Lily duced by the 2005 winner, Senator Richard honored for outstanding accomplishment Hightower, Megan Gallardo, Barron Rosen, Jeff Lugar, R-Ind. Collins and Michael Gonzales. (Absent: Erica Krug.) in the study of a “hard” language and its Three members of the Foreign Service associated culture. took home awards for constructive dissent: mony at State is held in the Benjamin The 2009 winners were Anthony Baird Barron Rosen (the Tex Harris Award for Franklin Room, where participants are sur- (Albanian), Monica Boduszynksi (Vietna- an FS specialist), Jeffrey Collins (the rounded by paintings of America’s origi- mese), Candace Lynn Faber (Polish), William R. Rivkin Award for a mid-level nal constructive dissenters: the Founding Sandrine Goffard (Mandarin Chinese), officer) and Michael Gonzales (the William Fathers. Timothy Kraemer (Korean), Patrick Mc- R. Rivkin Award for a mid-level officer). At the same annual ceremony, AFSA Neil (Estonian), Dewey Moore (Korean), The AFSA Constructive Dissent Awards presents awards for outstanding perfor- Rachel Lucille Mueller (Vietnamese), are unique in the U.S. government; no other mance. In 2009, the winners of these Lindsey L. Rothenberg (Arabic), Brooke organization recognizes its federal employ- awards were: Erica Krug (the Avis Bohlen Spelman (Mandarin Chinese) and Gary ees for voicing a dissenting opinion. Yet Award for a Foreign Service Family Mem- Westfall (Tagalog). it is constructive dissent that causes foreign ber), Lily Hightower (the M. Juanita Guess AFSA also sponsors the George Kennan policy to be reworked and improved. So Award for a Community Liaison Officer) Writing Award, given each year in honor it is no coincidence that the award cere- and Megan Gallardo (the Delavan Award of the best paper by a State Department employee enrolled at the National War College. This year’s winner was Patricia Mahoney, writing on “The Serbian National High School Orthodox Church and Serb Identity.” Essay Contest — Francesca Kelly, AFSA News Editor AFSA’s Nifty n June 14, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Ambassador Tracker Clinton presented the first-place award for new presidential administration AFSA’s 2009 National High School Essay Contest O came to town in 2009, and we all to Brian Parker. Parker, a 12th-grader at Springbrook High MICHAEL GROSS A know what that means: a slew of School in Silver Spring, Md., wrote his winning essay on Secretary of State Hillary Rodham new ambassadorial nominations. AFSA “Challenges to the U.S. Foreign Service: The Israeli- Clinton (left) presents the first-place keeps a close eye on these appointments Palestinian Conflict.” Thirty finalists received honorable 2009 National High School Essay with our online Ambassador Tracker at mention certificates for their essays. An AFSA advisory Contest award to Brian Parker, on www.afsa.org/ambassadorlist.cfm. You June 14. AFSA President Susan panel of judges selected the winner and finalists, deem- can find out who’s been nominated and/or Johnson is at right. ing Parker’s essay one of the most outstanding submis- confirmed, and see the percentage of sions in the history of the contest. political versus career appointments. The The goal of AFSA’s High School Essay Contest, now entering its 11th year, is to stim- list is updated on the first day of each month. ulate interest in a Foreign Service career among high school students nationwide. (Foreign Please send nomination news to Service dependents are not eligible to enter.) The winner receives a check for $2,500. Marketing and Outreach Manager Asgeir To read this year’s winning essay, please go to www.afsa.org/essaycontest. Sigfusson at [email protected]. — Tom Switzer, Communications Director
56 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/MARCH 2010 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 57
AFSA Annual Report 2009 CONSTITUENCY SUMMARIES
State Department: A Year of Transition
ast year was a time of transition for AFSA, for the depart- new directors into nearly every office with which AFSA’s Labor ment and for our country. It began with the inauguration Management team interacts. Most significant: the early August L of a president committed to expanding the role of the Foreign swearing-in of a dynamic and experienced front office in the Bureau Service in both national security and policy initiatives, and the nam- of Human Resources — Director General of the Foreign Service ing of a new Secretary of State with a management philosophy favor- Ambassador Nancy Powell, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary ing greater communication with, and support for, the people who Steven Browning and Deputy Assistant Secretary Robert Man- perform State’s many functions. Both brought an appreciable surge zanares — brought deeper and broader management experience in Foreign Service morale, and with it, high expectations for a revi- to those positions than we’ve seen in many years. talized Foreign Service. AFSA was proactive in briefing Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton early and working with the tran- A Range of Issues on the Table sition team to share our members’ views. During this year of transition, AFSA’s State Labor Management The outgoing administration had left a number of issues pend- Office, in addition to constantly promoting greater fairness and ing, particularly with respect to Iraq and Afghanistan, so much of transparency in assignment/promotion processes and disciplinary the first half of the year was spent working with management on decisions, advanced the following issues: these issues: staffing of our embassies, offices and provincial recon- • Developing maternity and paternity leave procedures that do struction teams; incentives for service at those posts that did not not involve annual or sick leave. prejudice other members in promotions or assignments; depart- • Ensuring that Washington assignments of untenured officers mental follow-through on linked assignments, training and treat- include opportunities to display all skills necessary to obtain tenure. ment (both administrative and medical) afforded to returnees; the • Improving coordination of the many factors affecting the abil- safety of FS members at those posts; and the balance between pro- ity of employees with disabilities to perform at full potential, includ- tecting employees’ well-being and allowing those employees the ing timely placement of required accommodation materials, appro- freedom necessary to perform their duties. priate consideration in the assignments process and equal access During this period, AFSA continued to lobby heavily on issues to career-enhancing positions. related to funding and salaries, with particular attention to the over- • Urging implementation of a Home Marketing Incentive seas pay gap. The Foreign Relations Authorization Act for 2010 Program to reduce employee losses due to the sale of a residence and 2011, containing language enabling State to address this inequity, forced by a change in domestic assignments. passed in June — culminating years of AFSA effort. • Increasing career mobility options for specialists, and pro- moting opportunities for specialist-to-generalist or generalist-to- New Initiatives specialist conversions that do not imply a loss of seniority. June also brought the announcement by Secretary Clinton • Ensuring FS employees unimpeded access to AFSA when of a significant extension of benefits to same-sex partners of advice, counsel or representation might be required. Foreign Service members, including status as Eligible Family • Weighing in on new MED policies regarding medical clear- Members and all benefits offered to EFMs, except pension and ances, housing while in Washington, D.C. following medical evac- health-care beneficiary rights constrained by law. AFSA has uation, payment of insurance deductibles and distribution of H1N1 worked for years with the organization Gays and Lesbians in vaccines. Foreign Affairs Agencies to support more equal treatment for • Promoting greater quality control of investigations, and com- same-sex partners of FS personnel. pliance with governmentwide norms in adverse-action security clear- A new AFSA Governing Board took office in July, with a clear ance adjudications. mandate to increase communication and dialogue with our mem- • Addressing issues related to state or local residence, in-state bers, to increase transparency in operations and to be more respon- tuition, housing loans and other issues where overseas service can sive to the full range of Foreign Service members. be a negative factor. To facilitate that communication, AFSA revived the State AFSA’s mission is to serve and represent the members of the Standing Committee and established advisory committees Foreign Service. We urge you to weigh in with issues of impor- addressing issues of particular concern to large segments of our tance to you, and to join the State Standing Committee or an advi- membership. sory committee when you are posted to Washington. The summer rotation cycle continued the transition, bringing — Daniel M. Hirsch, State VP
MARCH 2010/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 57 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 58
AFSA Annual Report 2009 CONSTITUENCY SUMMARIES
USAID VP: Achievements, Big and Small
t was a pleasure to work for you last year. assisted several junior officers in obtaining Many members visited me at the USAID tenure, as well as fair performance evaluations. IAFSA office, and I came to know more of We have also worked with management to cre- you personally. We achieved many successes, ate assignments that are in the best interest of but the one major accomplishment we are most particular members. proud of is, of course, obtaining overseas com- We have successfully resolved multiple for- parability pay. This is now being phased in, at mal disciplinary cases with lesser penalties than last, to end a longstanding unfair burden on our proposed — in some cases winning total abso- USAID FILE PHOTO officers. Many people from the AFSA staff, as AFSA USAID VP Francisco Zamora (left) welcomes lution. Numerous potential grievances were well as Governing Board members past and Sec. Clinton (center), as USAID Acting Administrator resolved without filing formal litigation at the present, deserve credit for lobbying Congress Kent Hill (right) looks on. agency level. For the small number of griev- and building support from various organiza- ances that were appealed to the Grievance tions to accomplish this. Board, the satisfactory resolution rate was, on average, about 85 per- I am delighted that, in addition to Michael Henning, we now have cent. a second USAID representative, Glenn Rogers, on the AFSA Governing We believe our interventions on your behalf have positively affect- Board as a result of reaching the 1,000 mark in AFSA members. ed everyone from entry-level officers to members of the Senior Foreign Solving problems, both serious and routine, for hundreds of our Service. We eagerly anticipate working with new USAID Admini- members does not get wide publicity due to the personal nature of strator Dr. Rajiv Shah, who will hear, through AFSA representatives the cases, but it is as valuable as our more prominent achievements. and leadership, your major concerns as expressed in our recent mem- For example, we helped acquire donated annual leave for sever- ber survey. We are listening to you, and we look forward to hear- al members facing critical family problems, allowing them to extend ing more from you. their sick leave significantly. Likewise, our counseling and advice have — Francisco Zamora, USAID VP
YEAR IN REVIEW
of-war camp in Hong Kong in 1942; Edmund Roberts, a special envoy sent by The Memorial Thomas W. Waldron, the first U.S. con- President Andrew Jackson in 1832 to nego- sul to Hong Kong, died of cholera while on tiate treaties in Asia, died in Macau of dysen- Plaques an official visit to Macau in 1844; and tery while en route from Siam to Japan.
he first AFSA Memorial Plaque was unveiled in 1933 by Secretary of State THenry Stimson. There are now two plaques in the C Street lobby of the State Department honoring 231 members of the Foreign Service who have died in the line of duty. New names were unveiled during an emotional ceremony on May 1, at which Sec. Clinton eulogized Brian Daniel Adkins, a 25-year-old first-tour officer murdered in his home in Addis Ababa. The other names MIKKELA THOMPSON added were of diplomats from the past: Felix Secretary Hillary Clinton speaks at the AFSA Memorial Plaque Ceremony, flanked by the U.S. Armed Forces Russell Engdahl died in a Japanese prisoner- Color Guard (right), as AFSA President John Naland looks on, May 1.
58 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/MARCH 2010 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 59
AFSA Annual Report 2009 CONSTITUENCY SUMMARIES
Foreign Commercial Service: Welcome Engagement
he focus for our efforts in 2009 was first on rescuing the istration that our State colleagues did, but we now feel that Commercial Service from fiscal disaster, and then on restor- Commerce management is fully engaged, especially Secretary of Ting its strength. This involved extensive lobbying on the Commerce Gary Locke and our congressional liaison offices. Our Hill, “in the building” and with our friends. We contacted every senior officials have put their hearts into it, testifying on the Hill legislator on our appropriations committee and organized let- and “shaking the trees” in the building. AFSA lobbying power ters of support from the National Association of Manufacturers, has been especially effective under new President Susan Johnson. And, for the first time in our history, an AFSA president (John Naland) met with the Secretary of Commerce, welcoming him For the first time in our history, AFSA President to the new job, introducing the importance of our activities and pushing for more resources. John Naland met with the Secretary of Commerce, On other fronts, we helped secure and implement locality pay welcoming him to the new job, introducing the and same-sex partner benefits, made progress in streamlining senior pay processing, and turned back unwise changes in drug importance of our activities and pushing testing and Senior Foreign Service promotions. We are still work- for more resources. ing to effect change in the broken-down seven-year rule — so far without success. Finally, the AFSA Political Action Committee and its con- nections have been very valuable. We were finally able to obtain the Business Council for International Understanding, the U.S. an additional $10 million in funding in Fiscal Year 2010 and, Chamber of Commerce and other allies. Officers overseas did thanks to the support of our management, it looks as though we their part to brief visitors, and our ambassadors also weighed in will have a substantial request for FY 2011, as well. This is good on our behalf. news, indeed. We did not get the immediate boost from the incoming admin- — Keith Curtis, FCS VP
Foreign Agricultural Service: Into a New Decade
t has been a tough decade for many U.S. com- County and Municipal Employees are interest- panies, employees and the economy. AFSA/ ed in a Civil Service promotion process. So tri- IFAS is also happy to see the end of the 2000- lateral interest-based bargaining looms — pro- 2009 decade, and to launch into a new one with viding an opportunity for the new FAS admin- many educational, new and ongoing opportu- istrators and AFSA/FAS to relearn the “whys” and nities to address our dual personnel systems. “hows” of the Foreign Service personnel system. Contract: Despite our best AFSA team ATO Grievance: The Foreign Service Labor efforts, we did not make any real progress revis- Relations Board gave us a great holiday present ing our contract in 2009. Now that the new FAS by upholding the findings of the Foreign Service management team is (mostly) in place, we will Grievance Board that the 2008 assignment of make a concentrated effort, starting with our three Civil Service employees to Agricultural core concern: Article 25 on performance man- Trade Office positions in the first bidding round agement. was inconsistent with the Foreign Service Act and Washington Placement Plan: The WPP our contract. Thanks to all the hard work of the AUSTIN TRACY must focus on finding good jobs for returning FAS VP Henry Schmick updates board mem- AFSA legal staff, we may be able to negotiate a Foreign Service officers. Meanwhile, our col- bers on the Foreign Agricultural Service at solution. leagues of the American Federation of State, the Governing Board retreat on Nov. 7. — Henry Schmick, FAS VP
MARCH 2010/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 59 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 60
AFSA Annual Report 2009 CONSTITUENCY SUMMARIES
Retirees: Serving Our Members
lus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” best encapsu- During 2009 we co-sponsored, along with DACOR, three job lates activity on the retiree account in 2009. Members transition seminars for retirees at the National Foreign Affairs Training “Pcalled on the services of Retiree Coordinator Bonnie Brown Center. We also conducted lunchtime programs during the sem- for help more than 400 times in the past year, an inars. increase of more than 15 percent over 2008. The The retiree survey proved Susan Johnson has addressed retiree groups most common concerns were Federal Employees that you are more in San Diego and San Francisco, as has retiree GB Health Benefits Program benefits, annuities, member Molly Williamson in Nebraska, in con- Medicare B and, increasingly, When Actually Internet-savvy than junction with private travel to the area. Employed caps on hours and pay. WAE restrictions have become a major issue. The almost-daily changes to the health care we had realized. Retiree Reps Bill Farrand and Janice Bay sent a reform legislation have required constant moni- letter to Under Secretary for Management and toring, as well as frequent consultation with other public employee Resources Jacob Lew in June on the issue, including suggestions for associations and unions. The alert sent to members at the end of a legislative fix, but have received no response to date. Susan Johnson the year regarding the implications of the potential 40-percent excise and I have followed up with the director general’s office, but beyond tax is an example of our efforts to keep abreast of this issue for our promises to look into it, there has been no action so far. This is an members. issue from which we will not back off, as lifting the caps is so clear- The Retiree Task Force meets each month to coordinate the retiree ly in the interest of both the Department of State and our retirees. perspective on issues appearing on the Governing Board agenda. Finally, the retiree survey we conducted in the fall proved that We will launch a telephone campaign soon to reach out to our you are more Internet-savvy than we had realized, and are closely colleagues whose memberships need updating. (By the way, I am watching what we are doing. Serving such an active and engaged pleased to report that there is no dues increase for AFSA mem- retiree community is a pleasure and challenge. bership in 2010.) — Robert Houdek, Retiree VP International Broadcasting Bureau: Closing the Pay Gap
FSA’s main concern for IBB members last year was to ensure that the agency pro- vided the first third of overseas comparability pay, as other agencies began to do Aaround Oct. 1. After some frustration in the fall, we believe at this writing (January) that IBB will improve its offer to start OCP in April. This is being made possible by AFSA and IBB lobbying efforts on Capitol Hill, which led to funding in the omnibus spending bill signed by the president in December, and specific language in the con- ference report calling for the funds to be used for this purpose. I want to thank the AFSA Governing Board and staff for their help and support throughout this process. With that issue hopefully behind us, we plan to raise others in the coming year, including the stalled expansion of the FS correspondent corps. The agency launched monthly labor-management meetings, which I attend along with other IBB union reps. This has proved to be a good channel for raising issues of mutual concern, such as staff morale, employee evaluation procedures, and time and
attendance concerns, among others. Again this year, there were no group issues involv- FRANCESCA KELLY ing the FS technicians. As always, I stand ready to help with individual or group con- Bagpiper Tim Carey sets the tone for the annu- cerns. Please contact me at [email protected]. al board and staff holiday lunch, Dec. 18, at AFSA — Al Pessin, IBB Representative headquarters.
60 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/MARCH 2010 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 61
AFSA Annual Report 2009 AFSA Board of Governors
Back row (left to right): Tex Harris, Henry Schmick, Andrew Winter.
Middle row (left to right): Mike Unglesbee, Sharon White, Keith Curtis, Julia Stewart, Daniel Hirsch, Francisco Zamora, Glenn Rogers, Les Hickman.
Front row (left to right): Carleton Bulkin, Bill Farrand, Susan R. Johnson, Janice Bay, Mary E. Glantz and Teresa Yata. FRANCESCA KELLY (Not pictured: Rebecca Balogh, Jorge Delfin, Robert Houdek, Joyce Namde, David Passage, Melinda Sallyards and Molly Williamson.)
The Foreign Service Journal Editorial Board www.afsa.org AFSA ON THE WEB The AFSA Web site (www.afsa.org) continues to be one of the most effective ways of increasing AFSA’s visibility and out- reach. 2009 saw almost 857,000 unique visitors to the site, with readers’ page visits increasing by 13 percent over 2008. As in previous years, our most popular pages include the National High School Essay Contest, Inside a U.S. Embassy, scholarships, the Foreign Service Journal, the annual Tax Guide FRANCESCA KELLY and the constituency pages. This year a new favorite emerged: Left to right, back row: Chairman Ted Wilkinson, George Jones, Jeff Giauque; the re-energized Ambassador Project pages. Front row: Stephen W. Buck, May G. Baptista, Lynn W. Roche, Our AFSAnet listserv, which had 9,635 subscribers at year’s Rima J. Vydmantas, Julie Gianelloni Connor, D. Ian Hopper and Joseph Bruns. end, also continues to be a vital avenue of communication with our members. To that end, we sent 68 AFSAnet messages (Not pictured: Mary E. Glantz.) in 2009. We are planning big changes to the AFSA Web site in 2010, and we look forward to sharing a new online experience with our membership later in the year. Stay tuned! — Asgeir Sigfusson, Marketing/Outreach Manager
MARCH 2010/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 61 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 62
AFSA Annual Report 2009 Staff
Executive Director Marketing & Outreach Programs
Ian Houston - Speakers Bureau - Exploritas AUSTIN TRACY - Memorial Plaques - Foreign Service Day Finance - AFSA Awards - AFSA Web site - Accounting - National High School
- Financial Management FRANCESCA KELLY Essay Contest
Left to right: Marketing & Outreach Manager Asgeir Sigfusson, Special Awards & Outreach Coordinator Perri Green, Director of Communications Thomas Switzer. (Not pictured: Exploritas Administrator Bernard Alter.)
Member Services FRANCESCA KELLY Left to right: Controller Kalpna Srimal, Accounting Assistant Cory Nishi, - Member Recruitment Accounting & Administration Assistant Alicia Campi. - Post Reps - Insurance Programs - Address Changes Foreign Service Journal - AFSAnet Listserv - Member Inquiries - Editing - Member Records - Writing - Fundraising - Design FRANCESCA KELLY - Advertising - Subscriptions Left to right: Administrative Assistant and Office Manager Ana Lopez, Member Services Representative Michael Laiacona, Member Services and Sales Director Janet Hedrick. - Inside a U.S. LOTTE REIJMER Embassy Professional Programs and Executive Support Left to right: Editor Steven Alan Honley, Associate Editor Shawn Dorman, AFSA News Editor Francesca Kelly, Senior Editor Susan B. Maitra. Inset photos: Advertising and Circulation Manager Ed Miltenberger, left, and Art Director Caryn Suko Smith, right.
Labor Management FRANCESCA KELLY - Negotiations - Protecting Benefits Left to right: - Grievance Scholarship Director Lori Dec Counseling - Financial Aid, Merit and Art Scholarships - OIG & DS Coordinator for Retiree Counseling & Legislation Bonnie Brown Investigations - Retiree Services, - Member Inquiries - Retiree Newsletter - Informing the Field - Retiree Directory
TERESA YATA Legislative Director Casey Frary Left to right: Labor Management Specialist James Yorke, Senior Staff - Lobbying Attorney Neera Parikh, Deputy General Counsel Zlatana Badrich, General - Tracking Legislation Counsel Sharon Papp, Office Manager Christine Warren, Staff Attorney - Hill Testimony Michael Willats. (Not pictured: USAID Senior Labor Management Adviser Executive Assistant to the President Austin Tracy Douglas Broome.) - Governing Board & Executive Support - Special Projects
62 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/MARCH 2010 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 63
AFSA Annual Report 2009 Membership by Constituency Membership Participation by Constituency December 2009 December 2009 USAID 8% IBB 0% FAS 1% 100
% of Membership Participation 80 84% 76% 70% Retiree 26% 60 63%
40
State 63% 34% 20 FCS 1% 24% Associate 1% 0 Retiree IBB FCS FAS State USAID
Total Membership 1989 to 2009 15,000 Record High 14,606 Members 14,000
13,000
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
10,000
9,500
9,000
8,500 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2009 Budget in Brief * INCOME ...... $ EXPENSES ...... $ Dues...... 2,881,000 Membership Programs ...... 1,484,444 Foreign Service Journal Advertising...... 511,000 Foreign Service Journal ...... 942,922 Insurance Programs ...... 22,000 Legislative Affairs ...... 169,970 Legislative Action Fund...... 34,000 Professional Programs and Outreach...... 476,333 Other...... 25,500 Scholarships ...... 477,657 Professional Programs and Outreach...... 280,705 Administration ...... 586,984 Scholarships ...... 476,725 Contributions to Endowment and Reserves ...... 92,620 TOTAL ...... 4,230,930 TOTAL ...... 4,230,930
* Approved figures. Actual audited financial statements for 2009 will be available on the AFSA Web site (www.afsa.org) in May.
MARCH 2010/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 63 48-67_FSJ_0310_AN_AR:ship 2/18/10 1:51 PM Page 64
AFSA Annual Report 2009 AFSA BY THE NUMBERS: What Happened in 2009? 13 AFSA press releases went out 17 major TV-radio-print journalists covered Foreign Affairs Day 44 states hosted AFSA speakers 49 AFSA-related letters, interviews and articles appeared in U.S. media 80 percent of overseas posts have an AFSA representative 99 students received AFSA scholarship aid 300 people are regular online readers of the Foreign Service Journal 473 FS community members are AFSA lifetime members 480 AFSA speaker events took place across the country 850 people attended AFSA Exploritas programs 1,000 is the number of USAID members, leading to a second AFSA board rep 1,232 fans joined AFSA’s Facebook page by year’s end 2,293 people read FSJ’s October “Public Diplomacy” issue online 9,635 members subscribe to AFSAnet, regularly receiving news updates 14,606 individuals are AFSA members AFSA Core Values 30,000 citizens attended Speakers Program events nationwide 195, 750 dollars were bestowed in AFSA student awards and scholarships THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE ASSOCIATION Established in 1924. Benefits of AFSA Membership MISSION Labor Management Relations: AFSA current on issues of importance to the Foreign To make the Foreign Service a more effec- negotiates the regulations affecting employees’ Service community. tive agent of United States international Legal Services: We offer free legal advice careers. We work to make the Foreign Service leadership. a better place in which to work, live and raise and representation on employment issues, a family. Our network of AFSA post repre- including security and OIG investigations, dis- sentatives provides on-site assistance to overseas cipline cases and security clearance proceedings. VISION members. Insurance Programs: You can choose We work to make the Foreign Service a Congressional Advocacy: AFSA is your among competitively priced insurance programs better-supported, more respected, more advocate before Congress on issues affecting the designed for the Foreign Service community, satisfying place in which to spend a career careers of active members and the annuities of including professional liability, long-term care, retired members. accident, dental and personal property/transit. and raise a family. Ombudsman: We work to resolve mem- AFSA Scholarships: Approximately 100 ber problems with pay, allowances, claims, annu- merit-based and financial-need scholarships are — RESPONSIVENESS: We listen to our ities, health care and many other issues. granted every year to Foreign Service family members and actively promote their Voice of the Foreign Service: As the members. Since 1926, AFSA has awarded near- interests. professional association of the Foreign Service ly $5,000,000 in scholarships. since 1924, AFSA works to strengthen our pro- AFSA Awards: This unique awards pro- — EFFECTIVENESS: We act with a sense of fession and is ever vigilant for threats to the career gram honors constructive dissent and out- urgency, get results and make a difference. Foreign Service. standing performance. — INTEGRITY: We demonstrate openness, Grievance Representation: AFSA’s legal Retiree Newsletter: This bimonthly honesty and fairness in everything we do. staff provides hands-on assistance with griev- newsletter is exclusively for retired members. ance proceedings when your rights are violat- Directory of Retired Members: This — EFFICIENCY: We carefully expend our ed. invaluable annual listing, by state, of contact resources where they can have maximum Outreach: AFSA communicates the views information for retired members is provided to impact. of the Foreign Service on professional issues to all retired AFSA members. — COMMUNITY: We foster teamwork, the news media and directly to the general pub- Magazine Discounts: AFSA members are lic. eligible for special discounts on subscriptions to respect each other and enjoy our time Foreign Service Journal: Our month- major foreign affairs journals. together. ly magazine offers provocative articles that will Esprit de Corps: We work to build a sense — COURAGE: We encourage responsible keep you current on developments in the for- of common cause and professional pride risk-taking in order to achieve results. eign affairs profession. among all Foreign Service members: active-duty AFSA News: AFSA’s monthly newsletter, and retired; generalist and specialist; entry-level, — PATRIOTISM: We are faithful to the inside the Foreign Service Journal, highlights issues mid-level and senior. grand and enduring ideals that gave our affecting your daily life. AFSA Memorial Plaques: Established in nation birth. AFSA Web Site: Our online member area 1933, and maintained by AFSA, these plaques — EMPOWERMENT: We trust each other includes a member directory and member in the Truman Building lobby honor members forums. of the Foreign Service who lost their lives over- to give our best efforts guided by these core AFSAnet: Regular e-mail updates keep you seas in the line of duty. values.
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Tehran Incognita rich history. In the process, he makes Understanding Iran a strong case that it is not just now, but Understanding Iran: Everything fully lives up to the for decades to come that a true under- You Need to Know, From Persia promise of its title. standing of Iran will be essential. to the Islamic Republic, From Back in 2006, I attempted to per- Cyrus to Ahmadinejad suade the management of the Foreign William R. Polk, Palgrave Service Institute to give all employees Macmillan, 2009, $25, hardcover, receiving training en route to Baghdad 272 pages. a copy of Polk’s Understanding Iraq. I In addition to a long career as a his- suggested that they could at least read REVIEWED BY ROBERT V. K EELEY torian, much of it spent as a professor some of its 213 pages during the flight of Middle Eastern studies at the Uni- there. My effort was predictably futile, William R. Polk is a prolific writer versity of Chicago, Polk was a member but I stand by the suggestion. on international affairs, diplomacy and of the State Department’s Policy Plan- Similarly, while there is no immi- domestic politics. In the past five years ning Office responsible for the Middle nent prospect of a resumption of diplo- alone, he has published four books that East and Central Asia during the Ken- matic relations, I would still urge FSI could constitute a graduate course on nedy administration. He was also on to buy copies of Understanding Iran the contemporary and historical Mid- the Crisis Management Committee for all employees who have any con- dle East (two of which I have previ- during the Cuban Missile Crisis. nection with U.S. policy toward ously reviewed for the Foreign Service This kind of background permits Tehran. Journal): him to understand the perspectives of A final note: Your graduate course Understanding Iraq: The Whole policymakers and those who imple- about the Middle East will not be com- Sweep of Iraqi History, from Genghis ment their decisions. plete until you have also covered Khan’s Mongols to the Ottoman Turks Understanding Iran fully lives up to Afghanistan and South Asia. Fortu- to the British Mandate to the American the promise of its title, giving us a thor- itously, William Polk is currently work- Occupation (Harper Collins, 2005) ough yet lively survey of a society that ing on a book on that subject, tenta- Out of Iraq: A Practical Plan for is moving quickly toward becoming the tively titled Understanding Afghani- Withdrawal Now, with George Mc- dominant power in the region. Polk stan, set for publication later this year. Govern (Simon & Schuster, 2006) reminds us that as much as Iranians Violent Politics: A History of Insur- chafe under the yoke of their current Three-time ambassador and retired gency, Terrorism & Guerrilla War, leaders, they still have bitter memories Foreign Service officer Robert V. Kee- from the American Revolution to Iraq of generations of British, Russian and ley operates Five and Ten Press, an in- (Harper Collins, 2007) American espionage, invasion and dependent publishing company he And now, Understanding Iran. I dominance. founded to bring out original articles, have just checked with Amazon.com, There are important lessons to be essays and other short works of fiction and your total tuition will be a mere learned from the mistakes of the past, and nonfiction that have been rejected $51.85 (plus shipping and handling). and Polk teases them out of Iran’s long, or ignored by mainstream outlets.
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An Eyewitness resources necessary to carry out their objectives.) However, he notes that Account In the book, Neumann this lapse is neither partisan nor ideo- logical, but generally stems from a lack The Other War: Winning recalls his efforts to of information and experience. He and Losing in Afghanistan also cites many examples where Wash- Ronald E. Neumann, Potomac Books, 2009, $27.50, hardcover, manage a host of ington did not act with appropriate 270 pages. timing or flexibility. complex issues that still In that regard, the author credits REVIEWED BY ROGER DANKERT Anthony Cordesman with the term plague Afghanistan. “armed nationbuilding,” which he says In the spring of 2005, just before captures what the U.S. is doing in Iraq imploded, virtually compelling a Afghanistan far better than “coun- U.S. military surge, the senior U.S. terinsurgency” or “nationbuilding.” diplomat for political-military affairs in For instance, Pres. Karzai repeatedly the country, Ambassador Ronald Neu- from August 2005 to April 2007, as the raised the idea of rearming tribal mann, was asked to become ambassa- problems for the ISAF and Afghan forces, as have many other Afghans. dor to Kabul. He took charge there President Hamid Karzai’s government But Neumann and Coalition Forces just as that country, too, began de- came into focus. Commander General Karl Eikenberry scending into a spiral of stronger in- Neumann brought 40 years of ex- (now ambassador to Kabul) resisted surgency and failing central govern- perience to his posting, starting with this approach on the grounds that even ment control. Until that point, three months of rambling all over if it worked, the U.S. would be Afghanistan had been “the other war” Afghanistan in 1967 when his father strengthening forces inimical to central of his book’s title — largely ignored was ambassador. After joining the For- government. Since then, police force and conducted with the minimum pos- eign Service, he studied Persian and creation has lagged and, remarkably, sible U.S. military effort. Arabic, and later served as a deputy as- the idea of local militias is still on the As former National Security Coun- sistant secretary for Near Eastern af- table in 2010. cil Near East Affairs Director Bruce fairs and as ambassador to Algeria and Amb. Neumann notes that the U.S. Riedel reminds us in his foreword, Bahrain. has established armies in many coun- Washington supported the muja- In the book, Neumann recalls his tries, but building a competent police hedeen as they liberated their country efforts to manage a host of complex is- force on the ruins of a destroyed coun- from the Soviet Union in the 1980s — sues that still plague Afghanistan: civil- try in the middle of an escalating in- but then walked away, allowing a Tal- ian-military relations, counternarcotics surgency was new to everyone. The iban takeover. Now, after being top- programs, unity of command, rules of failure he saw in Iraq — training only pled for their role in allowing al-Qaida engagement for U.S. and NATO low-level members of a corrupt force to foment 9/11, Taliban leaders exiled forces, civilian casualties, staffing and — helped him to understand similar in Pakistan are striving to push the management of provincial reconstruc- problems in Afghanistan. Regrettably, U.S.-led International Security Assis- tion teams, coordination of interna- the resources directed to Baghdad tance Force out of Afghanistan. Thus, tional aid, and trilateral ISAF-Afghani- were unavailable to Kabul. the current crisis could represent the stan-Pakistan coordination. When the ambassador departed second time in the last quarter-century As the ambassador worked his way Kabul in April 2007, his final report that the U.S. has squandered victory through “the fourth war he had experi- said the U.S. was “on solid policy in Afghanistan by failing to follow enced up close,” he came to a new ap- grounds, but we are still on a very, very through. preciation of the frequent disconnect thin margin. We do not need new poli- In this account, Neumann — now between policy formulation and im- cies; we need the resources and sup- president of the American Academy of plementation. (In particular, decision- port to implement effectively what we Diplomacy — records his observations makers repeatedly fail to secure the have decided to do.”
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Amb. Neumann’s perspective as a ramped up its own initiative. More- operated in opening up their records to distinguished statesman with multiple over, while the U.S. research (based at American and British inspectors. But layers of political-military experience Fort Dietrich, Md.) remained largely the key breakthrough came in 1989, makes this book one that should be on within the scope of the BWC, the So- when Vladimir Pasechnik defected and the list for all assignees to the Afghani- viets conducted their program at se- revealed the scope of the biological stan-Pakistan theater. “Read this book, cret sites in what is now Ukraine, weapons program. The next year, Gor- learn the lessons therein, or fail in producing and stockpiling weaponized bachev shut it down. Afghanistan,” concludes former Deputy biological ingredients of devastating The collapse of the Soviet Union Secretary of State Richard Armitage. potential. posed the question: How could Mos- Hoffman has conducted outstand- cow destroy the weapons that posed Roger Dankert, a Foreign Service offi- ing research, interviewing several top such a terrifying threat to civilization? cer from 1970 to 1996, is a former Soviet officials, largely chemists, who The U.S.-led effort to help do just that member of the AFSA Governing led the program. His efforts to un- is at the heart of Hoffman’s book. Board. In retirement, he has worked cover a convincing rationale for the The Dead Hand celebrates many he- as a When Actually Employed annui- work are fascinating but for the most roes on both sides, ranging from Presi- tant for the State Department in vari- part unsatisfying. They reminded this dent Ronald Reagan and Premier ous capacities. reader of the “following orders” excuse Mikhail Gorbachev to Senators Sam offered by the many Nazi officials who Nunn, D-Ga., and Richard Lugar, R- felt obliged to participate in Hitler’s Ind. — who took the lead within Con- Close Call “Final Solution.” gress to pass what would become the His title references the fact that 1992 Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat The Dead Hand: The Untold at about the same time, Soviet lead- Reduction program. Equally impor- Story of the Cold War Arms ers invented a doomsday program tant, if less well known, was Andy Race and Its Dangerous Legacy dubbed the “Dead Hand.” If com- Weber, who led the U.S.-British team David E. Hoffman, Doubleday, munist officials were killed in a first that, with Russian President Boris 2009, $35, hardcover, 577 pages. nuclear strike by the United States, Yeltsin’s support, searched for anthrax then a “small crew of duty officers spores and other biological agents at fa- REVIEWED BY KEMPTON JENKINS surviving deep underground” would cilities throughout the former Soviet still be able to retaliate. A similar Union. David E. Hoffman, a former Wash- commitment to mutual assured de- The Cold War resulted, of course, in ington Post correspondent, has pro- struction and disproportionate re- a dramatic victory for the free world, duced an eye-opening account of a sponse underlay the USSR’s biologi- and nearly 20 years later, we are right to little-known piece of unfinished busi- cal weapons program. celebrate that achievement. But it is ness from the Cold War that threat- The first serious evidence of the chilling to reflect on the dimensions of ened to turn our planet into an un- program appeared in 1979, when a the threat from the nuclear, chemical populated desert. major accident at the Sverdlovsk an- and biological weapons that each party The Soviet Union’s super-secret bi- thrax plant in the Ural Mountains to that global conflict accumulated. It ological weapons program, approved killed 64 workers and residents and is also sobering that such weapons still by Premier Leonid Brezhnev, pro- hospitalized 30 more. At the time, pose harrowing dangers in the hands of duced a terrifying inventory of toxins Moscow blamed the incident on not just a few nations but countless ter- in direct violation of the 1975 Biologi- tainted meat, but the explanation was rorists, as well. ■ cal Weapons Convention. The Krem- not persuasive. lin insisted that it had no choice but to Over time, Soviet scientists began Kempton Jenkins was a Foreign Service match a parallel U.S. program that pre- to awaken to the insanity of their work. officer for 30 years, serving in Bangkok, dated the treaty, but failed to acknowl- Once Premier Mikhail Gorbachev’s Berlin, Moscow, Caracas and Washing- edge that Washington was winding “glasnost” reforms took hold in the ton, D.C. His memoir, Cold War Saga, down its research, even as Moscow 1980s, more and more researchers co- will be published later this year.
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William Belton, 95, a retired FSO ogist. He was responsible — almost in its fourth printing. He also translated and accomplished ornithologist, died singlehandedly — for the current body the foundational Ornitologia Brasileira, on Oct. 25 at his home in Great Ca- of knowledge regarding the bird life of by ornithologist Helmut Sick, from Por- capon, W. Va., from congestive heart southern Brazil. tuguese into English (Birds in Brazil, failure. Completely self-taught, Mr. Belton Princeton University Press, 1993). Mr. Belton was born in Portland, traveled during the 1970s in a Jeep The American Bird Conservancy, Ore., and graduated from Stanford with a small house trailer attached, tak- which Mr. Belton helped found, has University in 1935. He joined the For- ing notes that he developed into a two- named its grants program in his honor. eign Service in 1938 and, during a 32- volume report, Birds of Rio Grande do Mr. Belton’s first wife, the former year career, served in Cuba, the Do- Sul, Brazil (1984). Carrying a heavy Julia Hyslop, whom he married in minican Republic, Canada, Chile, Aus- reel-to-reel tape recorder and direc- 1939, died in 2003. He is survived by tralia, Panama and Brazil. tional microphone, he made field his second wife, Cornelia Brouwer Among other positions in Washing- recordings over a period of 20 years of Lett Belton of Great Cacapon, W. Va.; ton, D.C., he served as the officer in more than 1,000 birds, mostly in Rio three children from his first marriage, charge of Mexican affairs, deputy di- Grande do Sul. These are now housed Barbara Yngvesson of Amherst, Mass., rector of the Office of South American in the Macaulay Library at Cornell Hugh Belton of McLean, Va., and Affairs and deputy Foreign Service in- University’s ornithology lab. Timothy Belton of Sheridan, Wyo.; spector for missions in 12 North Afri- Mr. Belton’s work was particularly eight grandchildren; and a great- can, European and Middle Eastern noteworthy for its methodical ap- grandchild. countries. proach, its comprehensiveness and the In 1958, Mr. Belton was detailed to sheer length of time he devoted to it, the National War College. Five years his associates told the New York Times. later, he was assigned as political ad- Each recording was the product of Helen B. Eilts, 87, wife of the late viser to the commander-in-chief of the hours of standing stock-still in the wild FSO Hermann Frederick Eilts, died U.S. Southern Command in Panama, at dawn, with swarms of biting insects on Nov. 23 in Benton, Kan., following with the rank of minister. He then for company. But over the years, Mr. a long illness. served as deputy chief of mission in Belton captured many bird songs that Mrs. Eilts was born in New York Santiago and Canberra, retiring in had never before been documented. City, N.Y., on Nov. 20, 1922, the daugh- 1970 as DCM in Rio de Janeiro. Besides his own book, which re- ter of Josephine (Freund) Richards and In retirement, Mr. Belton turned mains a standard text, he prepared a stepdaughter of Theodore Richards. his hobby of birdwatching into a more pocket-size Portuguese-language ver- She was a 1944 graduate of Wellesley than 30-year second career, becoming sion with 100 color photos, Aves Sil- College and received a master’s degree an internationally recognized ornithol- vestres do Rio Grande do Sul, which is in 1947 from The Johns Hopkins Uni-
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versity’s School of Advanced Interna- more, Md., and raised in Virginia. He track and football teams, winning tional Studies in Washington, D.C. attended Washington and Lee Univer- championships in the quarter mile and During World War II, she joined sity in Lexington, Va., and the Univer- pole vault. He was later selected as the U.S. Navy WAVES and served as sity of Southern California in Los captain of the track team. He was also an officer from 1944 to 1946. On June Angeles, Calif. a member of the national service fra- 12, 1948, she married FSO Hermann Prior to his Foreign Service carrier, ternity, Alpha Phi Omega. Frederick Eilts in Tehran. For the fol- Mr. Flannery served in the Air Force At Howard, he met fellow student lowing 30 years, Mr. and Mrs. Eilts and then worked in the private sector Thelma Juanita Ray of East Orange, represented the United States around for Link, a flight simulator company in N.J. In 1959, the couple married, the world: in Iran, Yemen, Saudi Ara- Binghamton, N.Y. This company teaming up for a 50-year journey that bia (twice), Iraq, England, Libya and transferred him to Paris, where he set- criss-crossed the globe. Immediately Egypt, in addition to tours in Washing- tled in 1967, subsequently working for after college graduation, Mr. Habron ton, D.C. a French engineering firm for several joined the New Jersey Highway De- When Mr. Eilts retired from the years. partment as a location and design en- Foreign Service in 1979, Mrs. Eilt’s In 1984, Mr. Flannery joined the gineer, receiving a promotion to senior service on behalf of the country was Foreign Commercial Service. His first engineer in 1964. Looking for new also noted by then-U.S. Secretary of overseas posting was Paris, where he challenges, he joined the U.S. Agency State Cyrus Vance, who stated: “Her served from 1984 to 1988. His next for International Development the fol- quiet, gracious warmth, her fluency in tours were in Algiers, London and lowing year. His first assignment was Arabic and profound interest in the Brussels. He retired from the Foreign as a highway engineering adviser in Middle East earned her the respect, Commercial Service at the end of Saigon during the height of the Viet- admiration and confidence of peoples 1997, and returned to Paris. nam War. whose cultures are far different from After retirement from the Foreign Next came postings for Mr. Habron our own. She exemplified the finest Service, Mr. Flannery resumed a car- and his family to Thailand, where he qualities of the American woman who rier in the private sector, working first worked on rural and urban develop- serves abroad.” for a consulting firm, APCO, in Paris, ment projects, and to Nicara- After retirement, the couple settled and then on different projects for The gua, where he worked to rebuild the in Wellesley, Mass., joining the Boston Wall Street Journal Europe Future country after the 1972 earthquake. He University community. Leadership Institute in Brussels. volunteered to stay behind after his Mrs. Eilts was preceded in death by He is survived by his wife, Laurence family was evacuated to ensure that her husband, her brother, Donald Flannery of Paris. others also reached safety, and was on Brew, and her parents. She is survived one of the last flights out of Managua by her sons, Conrad M. Eilts of Bahrain as the capital city fell to the rebels. He and Frederick L. Eilts of Benton, Kan., later returned to assist with aid efforts and their families. James Wiley Habron Sr., 76, a re- under difficult circumstances. Memorial contributions may be tired Senior Foreign Service officer In Grenada, he helped rebuild the sent to the Helen Brew and Hermann with USAID, died on Dec. 16 at his international airport; as USAID chief Eilts scholarship fund at Wellesley Col- home in Pleasantville, N.J. in Sierra Leone, he oversaw the distri- lege in Wellesley, Mass. Mr. Habron was born and raised in bution of food aid; and in El Salvador, Pleasantville. He served in the U.S. he was instrumental in rehabilitating Army as a member of the 63rd Army the country’s water system. Band, reaching the rank of sergeant Mr. Habron was selected for ad- Terence Flannery, a retired For- first class. Following military service, vanced training at the University of eign Commercial Service officer, he attended Howard University, grad- Pittsburgh, receiving a master of pub- passed away on Oct. 28 in Paris, uating in 1958 with a degree in civil en- lic works degree, and in 1980 was de- France, after a short illness. gineering. At Howard, Mr. Habron tailed to the National War College. He Mr. Flannery was born in Balti- was a member of the cross-country, was promoted to the Senior Foreign
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Service in 1983. Mr. Habron won nu- warmth and charm, and his ability to And in Saigon, toward the end of the merous awards and citations, includ- interact with people from all walks of Vietnam War, he directed the refugee ing: the Medal for Civilian Service in life — from prime ministers to the program and served as minister for po- Vietnam, Superior Unit citations, a man-in-the-street — and from differ- litical affairs. Distinguished Achievement Award ent ethnic and cultural backgrounds. Mr. Hitchcock’s last assignment was and several Senior Foreign Service Mr. Habron is survived by his wife, as deputy assistant secretary of State performance awards, as well as a Spe- Thelma Juanita Habron, of Pleas- for educational and cultural affairs. In cial Recognition Award from the gov- antville; two sons, James Jr. (and his 1977, he was awarded an honorary ernment of El Salvador. He spoke wife, Angela Anderson), of Sewell, doctorate by the University of Col- Thai, Vietnamese and Spanish. N.J., and Geoffrey (and his wife, Kate orado “in recognition of his accom- In 1989, Mr. Habron retired from Glynn) of East Lansing, Mich.; two plishments in the world of diplomatic USAID — six months after his son grandsons, Shane and Gabriel; a sister, affairs, and for his commitment to hu- James joined the Foreign Service — Pauline Thomas (and her husband, mane and compassionate diplomacy.” and returned to Pleasantville, where he Robert) of Philadephia, Pa.; two aunts; In 1978, he retired from the For- was active in civic and community life, and two godchildren. eign Service and settled in Boulder, enjoying the opportunity to give back Colo., where he married Diane Bart- to his hometown. There he began a lett Weller in 1987. Mr. Hitchcock second career as a project coordinator served on Denver’s Council on Foreign in the Pleasantville Urban Enterprise William Kenneth Hitchcock, 90, Relations and World Affairs and on the Zone office, and was instrumental in a retired FSO, died on Nov. 8 in Boul- University of Denver’s Social Science renovating the town bus station and der, Colo. Foundation. Friends and family mem- bringing a new bookkeeping system to Mr. Hitchcock attended the Uni- bers recall how he always enjoyed a the State of New Jersey. versity of Colorado, where he received lively discussion of world events. He also served on the board of di- his bachelor’s degree in 1941. Follow- Mr. Hitchcock is survived by his rectors for the “Miss Pleasantville Con- ing a graduate fellowship at the Na- wife, Diane, of Boulder; stepsons Cody test” and as a member of the Planning tional Institute of Public Affairs in and Doug Weller, and Doug’s daugh- Commission. He received the 2007 Washington and graduate work at ter, Adee Rose, all of Boulder; a daugh- City of Pleasantville Employee of the American University, Mr. Hitchcock ter, Victress Hitchcock of Crestone, Year Award and the Pleasantville High entered the Army Air Corps during Colo.; a grandson, Nick Sitko, and his School PTA Alumni Recognition Award. World War II. He completed 34 mis- wife, Michelle, of Lusaka, Zambia; a His tenure at the UEZ was broken in sions as a heavy bomber pilot out of granddaughter, Julia Sitko, of Guate- 2009 by the illness that ultimately England and was decorated with the mala; and a nephew, Bill Hitchcock claimed his life. Distinguished Flying Cross. At the and his wife, Rhonda, of Ft. Collins, Mr. Habron’s interests were broad. end of the war, while still in London, Colo. He loved playing the trumpet, double- he married Maxine Miller of Glendale, Donations in his memory may be bell euphonium, valve trombone, tuba, Calif. They divorced in 1981. made to the Social Science Foundation sousaphone and double bass, and was a In 1947, Mr. Hitchcock joined the at the University of Denver. ham radio operator, golfer, heavy State Department. He served in Lon- reader and history buff. An avid fish- don, Paris, Madrid, Calcutta, Saigon erman and boat owner, his car was al- and Washington, D.C. Early in his ca- ways filled with fishing gear. He was a reer, he was in charge of the State De- William E. Hutchinson, 92, a re- member of the American Legion, the partment’s disarmament research pro- tired FSO with the U.S. Information Omega Psi Phi fraternity, the American gram. As consul general in Calcutta Agency, died on June 20 at his home in Foreign Service Association and the from 1964 to 1968, he administered Gaithersburg, Md., of bladder cancer. United States Power Boat Squadron. one of the largest consulates in the Mr. Hutchinson was born in Mel- Family and friends recall Mr. world, whose district included the Hi- rose, Mass. He worked for the Boston Habron’s love for his family, his malayan regions of Sikkim and Bhutan. Evening Transcript as a youth, before
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Moving? moving to Hawaii in 1933. He was a tory of Gaithersburg. He was presi- news editor at the Honolulu Advertiser dent of the Appalachian Trail Club in through 1944. There he designed sev- the early 1980s and enjoyed hiking on eral front pages that warned of grow- that trail. He also enjoyed hiking in the Take AFSA ing tension between Japan and the United Kingdom, Norway, Italy, Costa U.S., including the Nov. 30, 1941, edi- Rica and Eastern Europe. tion that reflected a wire service report Mr. Hutchinson’s first wife, Jean With You! speculating on a possible Japanese Helen Meyasaki, died in 1939. strike in the next week. A week later, Survivors include his wife of 68 Japan attacked the U.S. Navy base at years, Kimiyo Funamori Hutchinson Change your address Pearl Harbor. of Gaithersburg, Md.; a daughter from online at: During his tenure with the Adver- his first marriage, Pamela Murphy of www.afsa.org/comment.cfm tiser, Mr. Hutchinson served occasion- Okmulgee, Okla.; three children from ally as a war correspondent for the his second marriage, William E. Overseas News Agency and the United Hutchison III of Junction City, Kan., Or Press wire service. He was then re- Penelope E. Cochran of Germantown, cruited by the Office of Strategic Serv- Md., and Harvey A. Hutchinson II of Send change of address to: ices and sent to Calcutta to work with Mobile, Ala.; 16 grandchildren; and 35 AFSA Membership members of resistance movements in great-grandchildren. Department Burma, Thailand and other Southeast 2101 E Street NW Asian countries. Washington, DC 20037 After World War II, he joined Gen. Douglas MacArthur’s headquarters Michael T.F. Pistor, 79, a retired command in Tokyo, editing the gen- FSO with the U.S. Information Agency eral’s monthly reports on nonmilitary and a former ambassador, died on Dec. activities during the occupation of 24 at his home in Bethesda, Md. Japan until 1952. He was also editor of Mr. Pistor was born in Portland, the official U.S. Army history of non- Ore., but grew up in Tucson, Ariz., and military activities during the occupa- graduated from the University of Ari- tion. zona in 1952. He served in the U.S. In 1952, Mr. Hutchinson joined the Army from 1952 to 1954, achieving the Foreign Service. His first posting was rank of first lieutenant. He began his to Tokyo as publications officer. He professional life in the private sector in then returned to Washington, D.C., 1956, working in New York City as a where he became deputy director of writer with a consumer magazine, Car USIA’s international press service and, Life. Within three years he became its later, inspector general. He also served editor, the position he held when he in Pakistan, Libya and Nigeria. In joined USIA in 1959. 1970, when President Richard Nixon In a 36-year career with USIA, Mr. began planning his overture to China, Pistor rose to the position of counselor, Mr. Hutchinson was sent to Hong directing many of the major elements Kong to head the USIA office there. of the agency. In his years of govern- He retired in 1973, returning to the ment service he played a key role in ex- Washington, D.C., area. plaining to audiences around the world In retirement, Mr. Hutchinson many of the most complicated and wrote his memoirs, several papers on controversial events affecting Ameri- local history and helped prepare a his- can life and policies in the latter half of
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the 20th century. Richard Nixon’s resignation usually led which was largely ignorant even of its His first foreign assignment, in the discussions. existence. 1959, was to training positions in In 1977, Mr. Pistor took on the job From 1980 to 1984, Mr. Pistor was Uganda and Iran, after which he was of directing USIA’s Office of Con- posted overseas as minister-counselor made public affairs officer in Douala, gressional and Public Liaison. That for public affairs in New Delhi, where Cameroon. For the next five years year USIA was reorganized, incorpo- he ran the largest USIA program in (1964-1969), he filled a position in rating the State Department’s Bureau any country abroad. The agency’s fa- London that was a Kennedy-era inno- of Educational and Cultural Affairs, a cilities included prominent informa- vation — Youth Officer. There he change that caused serious concern in tion and cultural centers in New Delhi, worked with international student Congress. Mr. Pistor immediately Bombay, Calcutta and Madras. leaders in Great Britain, as well as ac- found himself deep in the task of for- In 1985, he was back in Washing- ademics, politicians and journalists, ex- mulating testimony for top govern- ton, D.C., directing USIA’s Press and plaining the U.S. role in Vietnam and ment officials to give on the Hill, Publications Service. The service pro- the civil rights struggle at home. explaining how an educational and vided public affairs material to em- From 1973 to 1977, he served as cultural bureau could work success- bassies around the world on a daily counselor for public affairs in London, fully in the media-oriented USIA. At basis, in addition to publishing six mag- endeavoring to explain American the same time, he used his new posi- azines in 12 languages and operating events and policy to mostly friendly but tion to launch programs in major U.S. production and printing centers in skeptical journalists and intellectuals. cities explaining the role and purpose Manila and Mexico City. The assign- The Watergate scandal and President of USIA to the American public, ment was a stark change from a year of
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discussion and theorizing about foreign looked into policy, management and In 1943, she joined the Department affairs with graduate students at Tufts personnel issues at the American em- of State, where she held a series of ad- University’s Fletcher School of Law bassies in Germany and France and at ministrative positions in Washington, and Diplomacy, where he had been the U.S. Mission to the Organization D.C., and abroad, joining the Foreign sent as an Edward R. Murrow Fellow for Economic Cooperation and Devel- Service in 1955. Ms. Sandford served in 1984. opment in Paris. He then led an in- overseas in Bonn, Helsinki, Tokyo and From 1986 to 1988, Mr. Pistor spection team to examine the State Bangkok. headed USIA’s Office of North African, Department’s training organization, After retiring in 1975, Ms. Sandford Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs, the Foreign Service Institute. settled in Williamsburg, Va., where she overseeing the work of 21 public affairs In 2003, he was diagnosed with became active in the music commu- officers in embassies throughout the Parkinson’s disease, which over the nity, performing regularly on the piano, region. In that role, he revised and re- years increasingly crippled him but recorder and flute. She was elected shaped the agency’s programs to take seemed unable to impair his highly ac- president of the Wednesday Morning account of major developments in the tive social life and unfailing joie de Music Club and became an accompa- area, including Russia’s war in Afghani- vivre. Friends and family recall that he nist for the Women’s Community Cho- stan, the Iran-Iraq War and the spread always enjoyed enormous popularity rus. She was also a member of Bruton of Islamic militancy. among his government colleagues and Parish Episcopal Church, and loved He became USIA’s counselor in within a large circle of friends in re- playing bridge and traveling with 1988, a position he held until 1991, tirement. He was valued, among other friends. when he was named ambassador to things, for his unfailing and trenchant Ms. Sandford is survived by two Malawi, where he served until 1994. sense of humor, which he combined nieces, Carolyn S. Scattergood of Gil- He was the man on the spot there in with a constant interest in current af- ford, N.H., and Marcia S. Wilkins of curtailing an annual $50 million aid fairs. Hanover, N.H.; one grandniece, Deb- program because of U.S. displeasure Amb. Pistor was predeceased by his orah S. Clough of Acton, Mass.; and over what he termed the country’s wife of 45 years, the former Shirley two grandnephews, Joseph A. Scatter- “abysmal human rights record.” With Scott, who died in 2002. good of Derry, N.H., and Paul S. the subsequent collapse of the coun- He is survived by his daughter, Julia Wilkins of Weston, Mass.; and five try’s dictatorship, he joined interna- Pistor, who lives with her husband, great-grandnieces and nephews. tional agencies and other donor David, and their three children in Los Memorial donations may be made countries in helping Malawi move to a Angeles, Calif., and his son, William, to the Williamsburg Landing Benevo- democratically elected government who lives with his wife, Heather, in San lent Fund. Online condolences may with a multiparty system. Francisco, Calif. be registered at www.bucktroutfuneral Upon his return to Washington, home.net. Ambassador Pistor spent a year as senior adviser to then-USIA Director Joseph Duffy, before retiring in 1995. Eleanor Woodward Sandford, He coordinated the agency’s role in 95, a retired Foreign Service officer, James Frederick “Jim” Smith, President Bill Clinton’s Summit of the died on Jan. 10 in Williamsburg, Va. 81, a retired FSO with USAID, died Americas in Miami and directed the Ms. Sandford was born in Ware, on Dec. 27 in Tucson, Ariz. International Communication Studies Mass. She was a 1931 graduate of Mr. Smith grew up in Cleveland, Program at Washington’s Center for Ware High School and a 1932 post- Ohio, where he graduated from Strategic and International Studies. graduate of Northhampton School for Shaker Heights High School. He then During retirement, Amb. Pistor Girls. She attended Wellesley College, attended the University of Michigan, continued working in the field of for- where she received a degree in music where he was a four-year letter winner eign affairs. Serving as a senior in- theory and history in 1936. Thereafter, in varsity wrestling and team captain spector in the State Department’s Ms. Sandford taught music in Massa- under his coach, friend and mentor, Office of the Inspector General, he chusetts and Louisiana for five years. Cliff Keen. While at the University of
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Michigan, he helped found and volun- ing for the U.S. Information Agency. school system and taught in a variety of teered on the Joint Student Judiciary Later he joined the U.S. Agency for In- schools there. Council. ternational Development. Mr. Smith Family and friends remember Mr. In 1950, Mr. Smith earned his un- and his family were posted overseas to Smith as a consummate gentleman, a dergraduate degree and then at- Mexico, Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru and loving husband and father, and a be- tended the University of Michigan Morocco. His last posting was as mis- liever in living a full life and in striving Law School. His law school studies sion director in Colombia. to achieve and achieving one’s full po- were interrupted by military service Upon retirement from the Foreign tential. He was passionate about his in the U.S. Marine Corps during the Service in 1992, Mr. Smith received work in international development and Korean War. After receiving his LLB the USAID Administrator’s Distin- dedicated most of his life to this worth- in 1954, he did post-graduate legal guished Career Service Award, the while cause. studies at the London School of Eco- agency’s highest award for career serv- Mr. Smith was formerly married to nomics. Later in life, he received a ice. Elise Fiber Smith, who survives him, doctorate in education from Syracuse He then settled in Tucson, Ariz., and later to Luz Marina Gomez de University. but continued to work on international Smith, who predeceased him. After a short period in private legal matters, teaching and consulting with He is survived by his wife, Beatriz practice in Cleveland, Mr. Smith the University of Arizona, Pima Montijo Smith, of Tucson, Ariz.; his joined the Foreign Service, where he County Community College and other brother, Doug Smith of Crystal River, truly found his passion. He spent the organizations. He also became certi- Fla.; his sons, Greg Smith (and his initial portion of his FS career work- fied to teach in the Tucson public wife, Linda) of Beaufort, S.C., and Guy
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WWW.FSJOURNAL.ORG Smith (and his wife, Alison) of Min- independence in 1954 from Britain Click on the Marketplace tab on the marquee neapolis, Minn.; two grandchildren, and Egypt. Molly Smith and Dillon Smith; a Other assignments took Mr. Stabler AFSA Legacy niece, Vicky Tourbin; and a nephew, to Rome, Paris and posts in the Euro- www.afsa.org Brian Smith. pean Bureau of the State Department Donations in Jim Smith’s name in Washington, D.C. In 1972, he be- AKA may be made to the University of came the principal deputy in the Eu- stay-aka.com Michigan Wrestling Program, c/o ropean Bureau, where he carried out The Victor’s Club, 1000 South State special missions for Secretary of State Arlington Court Suites Hotel arlingtoncourthotel.com Street, Ann Arbor MI 48109, or to the Henry Kissinger, including one involv- Parkinson’s Disease Foundation, 1359 ing Cyprus. Clements International Broadway, Suite 1509, New York NY As a result of this, Sec. Kissinger clements.com 10018. persuaded President Gerald Ford to name Mr. Stabler ambassador to Cort Furniture cort1.com Spain. He arrived in Madrid in 1975, a critical time for Spain, with the end Diplomatic Auto. Sales Wells Stabler, 90, a retired FSO of the Franco era and the transition to diplosales.com and former ambassador, died on Nov. King Juan Carlos. Ambassador Sta- 13 at Sibley Memorial Hospital in bler was instrumental in helping steer Fox Hill foxhillseniorcondominium.com Washington, D.C., of heart failure. Spain toward democracy and mem- Mr. Stabler was born in Boston, bership in NATO, and eventually the Georgetown Suites Mass. He attended The Fay School in European Union. [email protected] Southboro, Mass., and graduated from After retiring in the fall of 1978, Brooks School in North Andover, Amb. Stabler worked for the German Hirshorn Company, The hirshorn.com Mass., in 1937. He then attended Marshall Fund in Washington, D.C., Harvard University, graduating in and carried out several important in- ProMax 1941 and joining the Foreign Service spections for the State Department. promaxrealtors.com later that year. He received the prestigious Wilbur In 1942, Mr. Stabler was posted to Carr Award from the State Depart- Property Specialists propertyspecialistsinc.com Jerusalem as a vice consul. He was ment, as well as many decorations then sent to open the first American from countries where he served. He SDFCU mission in Amman, where he became was also a member of the Metropoli- sdfcu.org chargé d’affaires and a close friend of tan and Chevy Chase Clubs and a King Abdullah, great-grandfather of Knight of Justice in The Venerable Strategic Studies Quarterly King Abdullah II of Jordan. Order of The Hospital of St. John of au.af.mil/au/ssq Israel’s declaration of independ- Jerusalem, where he also served as Tetra Tech ence in 1948 had provoked turmoil vice chancellor. tetratech.com and bloodshed, including the assassi- Survivors include his wife of 56 nation of Count Folke Bernadotte, a years, Emily Atkinson Stabler of WJD United Nations mediator, and the mur- Washington, D.C.; two daughters, wjdpm.com der of U.S. Consul General Thomas C. Elizabeth Wells Stabler of Annapolis, Wasson. During this tense period, Mr. Md., and Susan Paneyko (and her hus- Stabler was praised for his heroism in band, Stephen) of Princeton, N.J.; two protecting American lives and prop- sons, Edward (and his wife, Anne) of erty. Later in his career, Mr. Stabler Manchester-by-the-Sea, Mass., and When contacting an advertiser, kindly was the first American diplomat to Eric (and his wife, Tracy) of Summit, mention the Foreign Service Journal. visit Sudan after that country won its N.J.; and 12 grandchildren. ■
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REAL ESTAT E
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REFLECTIONS
A-100, Past and Present
BY STEVEN ALAN HONLEY
s I write these words in January, into their far-flung posts. I also let I’ve been thinking a lot about Instead of them know I’d made it through the Amy A-100 class, the 25th, which struggling to promote massive earthquake that leveled much gathered in Rosslyn exactly 25 years ago of Mexico City in September 1985 — this month. The temptation to seek esprit de corps, during which I was the embassy’s deaths deeper meaning in that milestone only I decided to put that and estates officer. grew when I recently calculated that my energy into nurturing About half of my classmates wrote exit from the Foreign Service in August back that first year, but the number of 1997 occurred almost precisely at the the close friendships correspondents fell over the years. So I midpoint of what would otherwise have I had made. decided to put my energy into nurturing been a 25-year career (so far). the close friendships I had made during But it is the fact that I will turn 50 orientation (two in particular), and else- this summer that makes the urge to re- where in the Foreign Service. flect on those first weeks of orientation Perhaps that is the most important and training well-nigh irresistible — of them would do that. lesson I’ve learned from my A-100 ex- particularly when one doesn’t resist it! In contrast, my own A-100 cohort perience. Ultimately, all members of AFSA hosts recruitment lunches for did not have much esprit de corps. Our our profession have to look out for each entering class of generalists and class motto, probably taken from the themselves as they forge their careers. specialists, for which I am generally one 1984 film “The Adventures of Buckeroo But if we’re lucky, at least a few treas- of the charming and talented table Banzai Across the 8th Dimension,” was ured friends and colleagues will have hosts. They’ve usually just had their “Wherever you go, there you are.” But our backs along the way. “flag day” ceremony, so as part of our in- at least some of my colleagues followed Whenever A-100 classes ask me if I formal discussion before the presenta- another adage: “It is not enough for me regret my decision to leave the Foreign tions get under way, I enjoy finding out to succeed. My enemies must fail!” Service relatively early, I assure them where the six to eight folks in my group Unlike most other incoming classes, that I don’t. Despite some disappoint- will be heading on their first assign- we never had a newsletter, and have ments, I did something that matters, ment. They are almost always full of en- only held a couple of reunions. Ad- and packed a lot of truly marvelous ex- thusiasm and idealism, qualities I hope mittedly, e-mail was still quite exotic in periences into my 12 years as an FSO. they never lose. 1985, and of course Facebook and What’s more, it paved the way for me Sometimes they ask me about my other social networking sites were to work for AFSA, which — like joining own FS career, which shows that they, decades away. But somehow, I don’t the Service all those years ago — has too, have absorbed a lesson I picked up think technology was the problem. proved to be one of the best decisions during the Foreign Service Institute Disregarding the advice of a vet- I’ve ever made. ■ unit on public speaking: The best way eran FSO that “an action transferred to ingratiate yourself with contacts is to is an action completed,” I seriously Steven Alan Honley was a Foreign ask them questions about themselves. considered volunteering to produce a Service officer from 1985 to 1997, Still, I notice that many A-100 classes newsletter — at least until the holiday serving in Mexico City, Wellington prefer to talk to each other. In fact, if season of 1985. That year, to test the and Washington, D.C. He has been the format for the recruitment lunches idea, I wrote all 51 of my A-100 col- editor of the Foreign Service Journal allowed table-hopping, I’m sure some leagues, asking how they were settling since 2001.
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