The influence of climate on past, present, and future conservation translocations Joe Michael Bellis A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of Liverpool John Moores University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy February 2021 Declaration No portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or other institute of learning. 2 Abstract A large proportion of conservation translocations fail to establish viable populations. Managers often attribute translocation failure to environmental conditions at recipient sites, however, no study has attempted to quantify the importance of environmental conditions, such as climate, in determining past translocation outcomes. In this thesis, I investigate the potential effects of recent and future climatic conditions on translocated populations of ectothermic vertebrate and invertebrate taxa across the globe. Using species distribution modelling techniques, I contrast predicted climate suitability between sites of successful and unsuccessful translocation programmes. I find that the probability of translocation success increases as predicted climate suitability increases. Furthermore, when contrasting the effect of climate suitability against five other variables often considered in the peer-reviewed literature as important to translocation outcome, climate suitability exerted the strongest effect and explained the most variation in translocation outcome. While these results highlight the potential of predicted climate suitability to inform translocation management, the rapidly changing climate means that matching species climatic preferences to existing conditions will be insufficient to secure the long-term viability of translocated populations. I demonstrate this by projecting species distribution models (SDMs) onto scenarios of future climate change for species that have been successfully established through translocation. SDMs project that at least 74% of recipient sites will decline in suitability in the future, and alarmingly, this percentage is based on an optimistic scenario of greenhouse-gas emissions for the near- future (2021-2040). The final data-chapter of this thesis applies the findings and methodologies of the preceding chapters to support conservation decision-making in an ongoing translocation programme in the North West of England, by using SDM outputs to facilitate the prioritisation of translocation efforts towards species with the greatest likelihood of establishing long-term populations under climate change. My findings call for greater integration of the spatiotemporal properties of climate into translocation management planning and suggest that SDMs offer an effective tool for achieving this. 3 Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to thank my primary supervisor Sarah Dalrymple whose guidance, support and trust has been constant throughout this PhD project. I am extremely grateful for the opportunities you have given me, and for your unwavering belief in my skills and abilities in conducting this research. I know how fortunate I am to have had such a thoughtful, engaged supervisor whom I can wholly rely on. I would also like to say a special thanks to my co-supervisors Dave Bourke and Joyce Maschinski. Dave, thank you for showing faith in my abilities as a researcher and for providing me with opportunities throughout my undergrad, MPhil and PhD – I am immensely grateful. Joyce, thank you for your constructive support and feedback on my thesis, I greatly appreciate you sharing your thoughts and insights. I extend my thanks to all the citizen scientists who have shared their time and identification skills with the world. Without their efforts this research project, and so many others, would not have been possible. Similarly, I could not have done this research without the detailed information on translocation programmes that was gathered by practitioners and researchers around the world – thank you for sharing your work. I have had the pleasure of working alongside Noémie Bonnin and Luke Bentley, who have helped me with GIS, R, stats and much more. A special thanks to them both, the PhD process would have been far more challenging without them. My thanks also go to Claire Barker for her encouragement and support during the PhD, thank you for believing in me. I would also like to thank everyone in room 646, for the laughs, the interesting conversations, the random conversations, and the fun that they brought to my PhD experience. I am so grateful to have been surrounded by interesting and interested people. Finally, I would like to thank my family. Mum and Dad, thank you for your love, support, and belief in me and my academic abilities. Mum, thank you for igniting and nurturing my interest in nature and conservation. Dad, thank you for being there to provide help and advice when I needed it, and for sharing your office with me at the beginning of my 4 research journey. Sam, thank you for proofreading parts of my work and solving my grammatical issues! Liz, thank you for the laughs and laidback discussions. 5 Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................. 3 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ 4 Chapter 1: General Introduction ........................................................................................... 8 Chapter 2: Identifying factors associated with the success and failure of terrestrial insect translocations ....................................................................................................................... 25 Abstract ............................................................................................................................ 26 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 26 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 28 Results .............................................................................................................................. 32 Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 37 Author contributions statement ...................................................................................... 44 References ........................................................................................................................ 44 Chapter 3: Climate suitability as a predictor of conservation translocation failure ........... 52 Abstract ............................................................................................................................ 53 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 53 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 55 Results .............................................................................................................................. 58 Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 62 Author contributions statement ...................................................................................... 67 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................ 67 References ........................................................................................................................ 67 Chapter 4: Climate change threatens the viability of populations at sites of successful translocation ........................................................................................................................ 76 Abstract ............................................................................................................................ 77 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 77 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 80 Results .............................................................................................................................. 89 Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 96 Author contributions statement .................................................................................... 100 References ...................................................................................................................... 101 Chapter 5: Using macroecological species distribution models to estimate changes in the suitability of sites for threatened species reintroduction ................................................. 115 Abstract .......................................................................................................................... 116 6 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 116 Methodology .................................................................................................................