Hydraulic Modelling and Inundation Mapping
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April 2012 BOW AND ELBOW RIVER UPDATED HYDRAULIC MODEL PROJECT Hydraulic Modelling and Inundation Mapping Submitted to: Frank Frigo City of Calgary, Water Centre Mail Code #428 625 - 25 Avenue SE Calgary, Alberta, T2P 2M5 Peter Onyshko Alberta Environment and Water 11th Floor, Oxbridge Place 9820 106 Street NW Edmonton, Alberta, T5K 2J6 Report Number: 09-1326-1026.7000 Distribution: REPORT 5 copies City of Calgary 5 copies Alberta Environment and Water 1 copy Golder Associates Ltd. BOW AND ELBOW RIVER UPDATED HYDRAULIC MODEL Executive Summary The City of Calgary (The City), in partnership with Alberta Environment and Water (AEW), engaged Golder Associates Ltd. (Golder) to undertake this Bow and Elbow River Updated Hydraulic Model Project. After the flood event in June 2005, The City and AEW conducted a detailed review of the recorded high watermarks (HWMs) associated with this flood event along the Bow and Elbow River reaches. It was found that a significant discrepancy exists between the observed maximum water levels and those that are simulated using the 1983 HEC-2 model (The City, March 2009). To address this discrepancy, The City and AEW decided to update the existing hydraulic model originally prepared in 1983 and modified in 1996. The objective of this study is to develop a new HEC-RAS hydraulic model for the Bow and Elbow River reaches through The City based on recent river channel survey data and flow and water level measurements. This model was used to prepare the flood inundation maps for the 1:5, 1:10, 1:20, 1:50 and 1:100 year flood events. The results of this study will be used primarily to support emergency response planning and operations. The results of this hydraulic modelling study will also provide additional information for assisting in current flood hazard area management, and an enhanced basis for a better understanding of fish habitat, river morphology and erosion, water quality and storm water runoff impacts. Hydraulic Modelling The Bow River hydraulic model study reach extends from Bearspaw Dam to the Highwood River confluence. The Elbow River hydraulic model study reach extends from The Calgary limit at 101st Street SW located upstream of Glenmore Reservoir to its confluence with the Bow River. A one-dimensional HEC-RAS model was set up in a way that it is capable of handling all flow scenarios within one geometry file. Separate branches were introduced at Bowness Island, Prince’s Island and Zoo Island along the Bow River study reach and at Riverdale Avenue, Roxboro Road, 26th Avenue SW, 25th Avenue SW, 22nd Avenue SW and Calgary Stampede along the Elbow River study reach. The cross sectional geometries are based on an integrated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) that was developed based on the City DEM, an interpolated DEM of the bathymetry of both the Bow and Elbow River and other sources (Golder, 2011). Manning’s n roughness values were applied using the distributed roughness approach and 10 different basic roughness classes. The initial roughness distribution was derived from the bank lines, data from the Parks Asset and Reporting and Information System (PARIS) of The City and Streets as flow split channels along the Elbow River. The HEC-RAS model contains a total number of 333 cross sections along the Bow River study reach and 240 cross sections along the Elbow River reach downstream of Glenmore Dam. The open boundaries of the model are the upstream end of the Bow River at Bearspaw Dam, the upstream end of the Elbow River at The City limits west of Glenmore Reservoir, and the downstream end of the Bow River at the Highwood River confluence. As the model was run in steady subcritical mode, the upstream boundary conditions were simply river discharges. The downstream boundary condition on the Bow River at the Highwood River confluence is Normal Depth using a slope of 0.22%. April 2012 Report No. 09-1326-1026.7000 BOW AND ELBOW RIVER UPDATED HYDRAULIC MODEL The Bow and Elbow River bed roughness values were calibrated for low flow conditions (measured discharge and water level data collected over a five month period from April 16 to September 20, 2010) and high flow (2005 flood event) conditions. The calibrated channel bed Manning’s values along the Bow River sub-reaches range from 0.030 to 0.040. The mean difference between the simulated and the surveyed HWMs by AEW for the 2005 flood event along the Bow River was -0.02 m with values in the range of ±0.35 m. The calibrated channel bed Manning’s value was 0.035 along the 11.3 km Elbow River study reach. The mean difference between the simulated and the surveyed HWMs by AEW along the Elbow River is +0.08 m with values in the range of -0.17 m to +0.19 m. The level of uncertainty in the simulated flood levels was estimated based on a model sensitivity analysis. The simulated flood levels are estimated to be, on average, within the range of ±0.17 m along the Bow River and ±0.13 m along the Elbow River study reach for the 100-year flood. The calibrated HEC-RAS model was validated for both the Bow and Elbow Rivers using available historical flood events. The significant overprediction of historic flood events may be the result of an overprediction of flow rates in those years as well as anthropogenic changes of the flood plains. Results Surface water profiles were simulated for the 1:2, 1:5, 1:10, 1:20, 1:50, 1:100, 1;200, 1:500 and 1:1,000 year flood events using the updated hydraulic model. The frequency discharges for these flood events were previously determined by Golder (Golder 2011). It was assumed that flood flows for all scenarios were only conveyed in the main and side channels. This conservative assumption results in higher water levels because additional flow conveyance behind the flood protection structures would reduce the water levels in the main channel. The flood water levels were calculated under natural conditions. The effect of encroachments is discussed in a separate report (Golder, 2012). Along the Bow River two pedestrian bridges (Bowmont and Sue Higgins Pedestrian Bridge) are expected to be flooded (flood water levels reach the lower chord) during the 50-year flood. A total of nine bridges are expected to be flooded during the 100-year flood. Along the Bow River water levels are expected to exceed the low chord elevations of most bridges during the 100-year flood. At 13 of the 19 bridges along the Elbow River, water levels during the 100-year flood are expected to be higher than the minimum bridge deck elevations. The flood inundation mapping extent covers areas within The City limits. However, due to a lack of updated information along the Elbow River upstream of Glenmore Reservoir, flood inundation mapping for the Elbow River was only prepared for the river reach downstream of Glenmore Dam. The inundation extent was determined by overlaying the interpolated water surface at the cross sections and the integrated DEM in a Geographical Information System (GIS). In addition to the direct flood inundation area, three types of inundation were distinguished: pooled inundation based on the water level at an overflow location, isolated inundation without direct connection to the flood conveying channel and structure failure inundation behind flood protection walls/berms. The inundation extent in the Mission/Downtown/Stampede area was estimated based on the assumption of linear interpolation of water levels along multiple breaklines between cross sections along the Elbow River and corresponding cross sections along the Bow River on the north side of the CPR tracks. April 2012 Report No. 09-1326-1026.7000 BOW AND ELBOW RIVER UPDATED HYDRAULIC MODEL The main residential and/or commercial development areas along the Bow and Elbow Rivers that would be affected (based on the flood inundation maps) during the 100-year flood are: Bowness, Kensington/Sunnyside, Prince’s Island, parts of downtown Calgary, East Village, Bridgeland, Calgary Zoo, various areas in south Calgary along the Bow River, Riverdale/Elbow Park, Rideau Park/Roxboro, Mission District, Erlton Area, Victoria and Stampede. April 2012 Report No. 09-1326-1026.7000 BOW AND ELBOW RIVER UPDATED HYDRAULIC MODEL Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Scope of Work ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 AVAILABLE DOCUMENTS AND DATA .......................................................................................................................... 4 3.0 MODEL SETUP ................................................................................................................................................................ 5 3.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 3.2 Model Reaches .................................................................................................................................................... 5 3.3 Cross Sections .................................................................................................................................................... 6 3.4 Bridges .............................................................................................................................................................