Understanding Climate Diplomacy

Home , Climate risk management, Fossil fuels lobby, Track II diplomacy

Building diplomatic capacity and systems to avoid dangerous climate change

Nick Mabey, Liz Gallagher and Camilla Born

October 2013

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he challenge climateof diplomacy Know Know the other: Assessing other countries climate interests Understanding leverage:How to win the politics The difficult Know yourself: building national conditions for climate ambition A frameworkA to strengthen the practice climateof di A strongerA formal climate change agreement is needed successfulA climate regime requires synergies between national and international action Climate cooperation face Understanding the diplomacy preventingof Glossary of terminology of Glossary Acronyms 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.2 Evolution climateof diplomacy 2.3 The evolution of the international climate regime 2.4 Structural challengesclimate diplomacy for in shaping the international climate regime 2.1 The scope and functions climateof diplomacy 1.2 T 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1

Conclusions Chapter 3: Rethinking climate diplomacy climate Rethinking 3: Chapter

Chapter 2: The evolution of climate diplomacy and the international regime climate Introduction Introduction diplomacy climate of landscape The 1: Chapter Summary Executive Contents Understanding Climate Diplomacy 4 Monica Araya governmental governmental

- – omacy omacy work’ in Spring could could not have been written without the

e and John Ashton; our Senior Associates ity of the authors, we have endeavoured to be as rigorous

assessments assessments based on a broad range of contemporary sources Tom Burk

- balanced balanced

Where Where expert opinion is split, especially over the interpretation of past events, .

icitly included different versions. versions. different included icitly Goodacre, Goodacre, Nadia Schweimler and Kiran Sura for their support and input into the -

Dan Hamza report. The publication has been strongly informed by the of experience senior diplomats, negotiators and influential actors within the foreign policy and climate community from across the world who joined E3G and CDKN in a workshop entitled ‘Making climate dipl 2013. The authors would like to thank CDKN staff, especially Sam Bickersteth, Simon Maxwell government, government, business and NGOs. It has also been E3G’s strongly founding Directors informed by the experience of and Martin Frick; as well as external Farhana Yamin, and Bernice Lee. The insights, authors are grateful for the input from these in individuals particular from Dean Bialek, project on the David Wei, as possible in making and opinions. expl we have The report is based on the authors’ collective experience as climate diplomacy practitioners in This paper was commissioned by confidential input CDKN. of many serving It and retired government experts officials who have and helped non build the current climate change regime. While the judgements in this paper are solely the responsibil Acknowledgements Understanding Climate Diplomacy 5

up” up”

[online] Available Available [online] [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

ude ude a wide range ). This does not intend to to intend not does This ). in in order to prevent up” action is needed, is needed, action up”

- hange to ‘below 2°C’ (see G8 G8 2°C’ ‘below (see to hange 3 going failures of modern of modern failures going - e, delaying action makes lower CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/CC%20SPV%205663.pdf - CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/CC%20A%2063%20PV.85.pdf - session on climate and security and climate on session

declaration.html#resources rd mbition mbition pre and post 2020 the ability to 8CD3 - - layered layered international regime grounded in down” and “bottom and down” 8CD3 - - - C 4E9C - and and United Nations Security Council (UNSC) of the 63 of the 4E9

- t occasions since, leaders from key emitting 1 6D27 - 6D27 - adequacy adequacy of the below 2°C target in light of a possible

Official Records Records Official represents one of the onrepresents greatest

Provisional records of the 5667 meeting of the Security Council Council Security the of 5667 meeting of the records Provisional ow ow 2°C future on their own. A top down regime is a strong

proliferation proliferation and trade, effectively limiting climate change risk will - is vital to manage climate risk climate manage to vital is

http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/summit/2009laquila/2009

my my that a high carbon business model will expose them to greater risk and hit their construction construction of an effective, complex, multi below 2°C’ represents the dominant and most widespread political expression of the aims of the Convention the of aims of the expression political widespread most and the dominant represents 2°C’ below

the efforts currently underway in the review to assess if a below 2°C global goal is sufficient to meet the ‘ultimate ‘ultimate the meet to sufficient is 2°C goal below global if a to assess review the in underway currently efforts the

http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B Throughout this paper we primarily refer to diplomatic and political consensus on limiting climate c climate limiting on consensus and political to diplomatic refer primarily we paper this Throughout United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) [2009] [2009] (UNGA) Assembly General Nations United [2007] (UNSC) Council Security Nations United

3 declaration L’Aquila dismiss necessary. is goal stringent more a whether change), or climate anthropogenic dangerous (prevent convention of the objective’ ‘ However, but but must be seen as complementary, and not competing, modes of action. The international 1 http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B 2 at: As with issues such as non require national action. The UNFCCC will be at the heart of this regime, but as the focus moves from target setting to implementation, the regime will continue expanding to incl “top Stronger partnerships. and ofinstitutions other climate risk below dangerous climate levels dangerous risk below diplomacy. regime effective an and agreement international of foundation the is Diplomacy timetables. Only a binding regime can convince those whose capital allocation decisions shape shape whose timetables. decisions those allocation regime capital convince Only can a binding the econo carbon. on now low betting than harder returns Given this context the absence of agreement on an effective international regime to limit Without agreement Without agreement to a major increase in mitigation a limit climate risks to below 2°C will disappear. Experience and analysis suggests that without an international agreement this will solutions which will deliver be a bel impossible; there are signal to business no and investors of political credible commitment to emissions reductions “bottom targets and No country can control the climate risk it faces on its own. Climate change is more challenging than many other global issues because it is a race against tim climate risk levels unattainable. It also requires profound choices that impact broad national consumption. and urbanisation energy, development, such as debates interest security. In 2009, and on several countries subsequen have agreed to limit global temperature rises dangerous to below climate 2°C change. Recently the (UNFCCC) agreed a review to assess the United Nations Convention on 1.5°C’ goal. ‘below a to strengthening Climate Change agreement International The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) have both stated that uncontrolled climate change poses a threat to international peace and Summary Executive Understanding Climate Diplomacy 6

–

abstract abstract relevance to to relevance

, but is this not but , 4 onal interests. onal interests. Climate Climate diplomacy

new new actors and advocates is of climate diplomacy therefore

mate change programmes which are rapid rapid growth of overlapping alliances

al voices of the most vulnerable countries to to countries al voicesof the most vulnerable [online] Available from: from: Available [online]

, regional and national activity and leadership. and national activity and , regional term climate risk reduction goal. goal. reduction risk climate term - The Colour of Growth of Colour The state state actors, and new approaches to shaping a global -

whether whether on human rights, environment, trade or gender issues

– mate diplomacy is the interface between national interest debates and debates and interest national between the interface is diplomacy mate

operation has built a global low carbon market £3.3 trillion £3.3 market carbon low a global has built operation - to achieve the long achieve to t conflicting national interests around climate vulnerability, low carbon businesses Confederation of British Industry (CBI) [2012] [2012] (CBI) Industry British of Confederation

complicate complicate the basis for international cooperation. Empowering 4 http://www.cbi.org.uk/media/1552876/energy_climatechangerpt_web.pdf Climate Climate diplomacy has shifted from a relatively narrow focus on more the UNFCCC complex process, to and a wider discipline that growing the regime’s and success of This is a sign discussions. geopolitical broader now engages new constituencies and a embraces wide range of actors. However, necessary to deeper counteract and and more harness this intensive increasing international diversity diplomacy of stakeholders is that tend to between between both state and conversation on non the consequences of, and solutions the politic aligns which Forum Vulnerables Climate to, climate change. For example the negotiations. and discussions international in influence their aggregate To deal with the internal and external challenges to success, climate diplomacy must draw on the best practice of modern diplomacy and also innovate new approaches. is evolving in scope and complexity as the climate regime shifts its focus to and climate risk management. implementation This rapid evolution has prompted better integration of climate change into broader foreign policy and diplomacy, a Climate diplomacy is evolving and innovating alongside the international climate regime climate international the alongside innovating and evolving is diplomacy Climate Climate diplomacy is the practice and process of creating regime the and international ensuring climate change its effective operation. The regime. climate of the the construction evolution shapes and precedes world of international climate Bangladesh uses its experience with managing change national climate change impacts to agreements. shape and For nati of its in support Damage” “Loss and on debate international the promote example, the Government of international international cooperation. Climate diplomacy ensures countries’ interests the and accurate intentions, and assessment finds of the other space interpre for agreement. To do this it must opportunities, high carbon asset diplomacy must exposure, ensure national priorities are sovereignty reflected and understood in the and often perceived fairness. Climate example, climate co climate example, activity enough It is the role of international regime, climate ensure diplomacy its to effective deliver Cli challenges. emerging operation, the and timely shape construction its of evolution this to complex address rooted rooted in broad domestic political processes. consensus Global action and integrated into global between national reciprocity involved always has development Unlike many other areas of diplomacy there is some strong recent progress to build on. For regime can only work if it rests on strong national cli Understanding Climate Diplomacy 7

igh igh inside a a inside the most shooting shooting and n actions n and actions - on the interests,

5 . plement plement it through multiple unrepresentative unrepresentative and narrow pport pport and timely content for

clear national position based on

develop develop and action a

n n as a reactive discipline. But while trouble

the the capability to effectively integrate national priorities into

the the capability to gather and analyse intelligence

the the capability to

allocation of allocation human resources, and funding training and of coordination

- active if it is to succeed. succeed. to it is if active t of influence. It attempts to forge agreement but also to move political - rk; this covers information collected from open public sources, privileged diplomatic information and and information diplomatic privileged sources, public open from collected information covers this rk;

tion tion for Copenhagen shows how the design of international processes cannot be objective objective understanding of how climate change influences and impacts core

in in by senior ministers and officials, reforms to internal strategic decision making - Capacity Capacity to Influence: political and diplomatic channels. The command of basic tools of diplomacy and the capability to create a clear influencing strategy and to im venues, building alliances and strategic confidence, and framing and driving debates messaging. public and private through interest is politically contested, may be dominated by information perfect than on less depends often and groups, interest Know the other: constraints and capacities of other actors and how they your perceive ow positions. Know Know yourself: an national interests. As in all other areas of policy, the process of forming the national

3. 2. 1. In this paper “intelligence” is used in its traditional technical sense to refer to any information which underpins analysis analysis underpins which information any to refer to sense technical traditional in usedits is “intelligence” paper In this

5 framewo support decision gathering. and information communications government other level buy systems, significant re generalist diplomats and strong central capacity to provide su influencing. effectively effectively utilise them. Countries also need to have a clear strategic understanding invest. to in which relationships and venues important Mobilisation of the capacity and strategic focus needed to engage effectively in the expanded climate regime is a institutional effort even the for significant It countries. largest requires h skills and resources in investment more and reform institutional requires diplomacy Climate The prepara separated from the practicalities of developing enough climate diplomacy capacity which can requires three core capabilities: core three requires diplomacy climate of elements Core Diplomacy is the ar boundaries, expanding the realm of the politically possible. The practice of climate diplomacy international mobilisation of Parliamentarians through the Globe Climate Legislators Initiative. Legislators Climate the Globe through Parliamentarians of mobilisation international Diplomacy has traditionally been see crisis management will always be a major part of diplomatic practice, climate diplomacy must pro and be creative essential to broadening the legitimacy and credibility of the climate threat. For example, the Understanding Climate Diplomacy 8 - cutter cutter -

resourced resourced in all

- ential ential to building

oard new actors. But this government) government) systems. The - government” government” approach, but it has

Balancing Balancing conflicting economic, energy, crease crease their impact by strengthening vital offs. - wledge wledge on climate and environmental policy and law.

a a top priority into broader foreign policy processes. As

ing ing diplomatic communications and media skills and the ability seem straightforward on the surface, delivering them requires

ies iplomatic iplomatic goals requires policy coordination at the highest level. day day practice of shaping debates, understanding others and building - to - inery sufficiently to be able to deliver effective climate diplomacy. diplomacy. climate effective deliver to able be to sufficiently inery y in the area of climate change. of climate in the area y

from diplomatic best practices in other fields to more effectively leverage general diplomatic capacit The most effective climate diplomacy requires a “whole of yet to be achieved. Many innovations are importance of limiting climate only risks, climate diplomacy is used still relatively under patchily across countries. Given countries, and the seldom integrated as well as the toimperative increase available capacity, there is much more countries could learn department, no matter how powerful. how matter no department, This mainstreaming of climate into new institutions has brought onb positive development has also led to tensions inside governments as the power, leverage and weakened. is of Environment Ministries as such actors traditional of the agency Effective climate diplomacy requires more ownership across governments across ownership more requires diplomacy climate Effective Climate diplomacy must manage political trade climate change and d Delivering an effective climate diplomacy strategy is beyond the capacity of any one significant significant institutional changes to government (and many majority of non countries have not yet sufficiently embedded climate change into their decision mach making example example the day alliances to influence, develop cookie is not about transferring This constructive ambiguity. and/or to compromise find results workable deliver to on how skills deeper building but solutions, Although these capabilit Constructing Constructing a stronger sense of agency even when capacity is limited is ess political momentum to secure an ambitious outcome. This can be done through alliances such as the LDCs Alliance which gives countries with low individual capacity and influence an ability to leverage their impact. Countries can “craft” also skills in in existing officials and bringing in relevant external capacity and skills. For international international climate regime. concentrates on For building technical kno many countries, This enhancing is an important first step, but insufficient the given barriers to (i.e. agreement shaping the diplomatic capacity still debate). national interest Many practioners question whether the diplomatic capacity exists to deliver an effective Understanding Climate Diplomacy 9 -

strategic levers to term evolution of the - governmental actors: governmental - making making processes to shape -

than a reactive approach

any any could improve their international atedly atedly been raised as immediate priorities for

re re national interest at home and influence debates in other countries.

ronger intelligence gathering and analysis capability integrated into mainstream Proactive development of options and objectives for the medium international regime across all relevant fora, rather offs and synergies with other interests domestically and in international negotiations. Clearer diplomatic objectives and influencing strategies which identify shift negotiations and political conditions in key countries. Better understanding of the future political space for agreement and how this might shaped be Better national coordination and political convening structures which can manage trade Stronger understanding of other countries’ national interest debates and motivations St foreign policy systems

> > Objectives Development Regime Clear > Capacity Influencing Strategic Stronger > Better Analysis and Intelligence Intelligence and Analysis Better > > impact through higher domestic investment, stronger alliances and with international support. However, even within current constraints much different can the be done. following areas Though in non and governments in capabilities diplomacy climate improving all have countries repe are international. international. It should turn national international action level, into and conversely political use the outcomes international and momentum to progress drive domestically. ambition at and stimulate the All countries suffer from capacity constraints and m Diplomacy Diplomacy is not merely the external projection of a position. The application of diplomacy to climate change is critical to embedding climate change in decision and reframe the co Diplomacy should align climate with other national interest priorities. Diplomacy should use all the tools at its disposal to bridge the artificial divide between the national and the Conclusion Understanding Climate Diplomacy 10

, aims

commissioned commissioned this

diverse set of actors from a variety fromset of a diverse variety actors sets out a framework of thinking on

aper making making and through this manage climate risk - Building Building on the insights and expertise from a wide climate diplomacy

d a workshop engaging with actors beyond the climate

ion ion between Ministries of Environment, Energy, Foreign missioned missioned by CDKN was to outline the critical challenges and Climate Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) of avoiding dangerous climate change. CDKN

e vulnerable countries better integrate climate change objectives into their in the climate, development, diplomatic, energy and security communities

aiming to understand what lessons can be drawn upon in relation to climate

climate diplomacy impacts the national political economy of climate change, Building on our Political Economy Mapping Methodology (PEMM© 2013) understanding how insights into how to deliver effective Exploration of other global issues which have been successfully incorporated into foreign policy diplomacy. Strategic high level dialogues an community across developed and developing countries to develop a comprehensive analysis and

> > To undertake this high level analysis of climate diplomacy E3G used the following approaches: approaches: following the used E3G diplomacy of climate analysis level this high To undertake > debate. debate. The aim being to identify specific recommendations for CDKN to support the poorest and most climat practice. and strategy affairs foreign Methodology action, but which also captures depth through outlining examples and case studies. studies. case and examples outlining through depth captures also which action, but Objectives The original aim of the paper com opportunities to integrating climate change as a core component of the national interest Context and Scope and Context To date there has been limited public literature on climate diplomacy, given the immaturity of the field and a lack of academic study. range of climate diplomacy practitioners, the p climate diplomacy which is broad enough to embrace the growing scope of climate change underpin underpin more effective cooperat Affairs, Trade, Economy and Finance. The ultimate goal being to help fully integrate change climate into “whole of government” decision more successfully. international climate change regime. change climate international involves a that climate diplomacy The acknowledge authors of backgrounds including business and civil society. However, this paper is specifically written for government officials and aims to provide a shared analytical and conceptual basis to This paper, commissioned by the to capture the critical elements of climate diplomacy, and explain how it needs to order evolve to meet in the challenge work as of part wider to countries efforts the evolution ofbetter help influence developing the Introduction Understanding Climate Diplomacy 11 actors determine the national interest and what diplomatic

etermine the external projection of climate change into the international

legacies d arena. focusing on how different

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 12 . a

was parallel parallel binding

- excessive excessive es es for this id id the most a global low citing failed failed to reach an

– saw that the in in many countries still

s that Copenhagen left a

Paper from the High Representative and the the and Representative High the Paper from

s have also agreed to review the discussed a “shadow” non a “shadow” discussed –

as there to be made, By these measures Copenhagen such such as the response to the Rwandan Climate Climate Summit agreed to an objective of

[online] Available from: from: Available [online]

or their representatives

– http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a01.pdf COP15 COP15 diplomacy

the the UNFCCC as an institution, claiming that it has too The Colour of Growth of Colour The . But it did not deliver against its own high expectations. high own its against deliver not it. But did 8 received very little attention in mainstream foreign policy (such (such as the Ministries of Foreign Affairs) Trade Trade Organisation (WTO) talks and the global financial crisis. The

pointed pointed to

. [online] Available from: from: Available . [online] breakdowns breakdowns in undermining undermining the success of the formal UN process. Among those who

legally binding agreement. binding legally

£3.3 trillion £3.3 as as

that limiting climate change to this risk level would avo ,

. 7

9 Copenhagen Accord Copenhagen diplomatic process to capture and harness the political ambition available available ambition political the harness and to capture process diplomatic

ce results; in fact the process significantly accelerated the growth . Many observers Understanding Understanding the diplomacy of preventing dangerous climate change eration of British Industry (CBI) [2012] [2012] (CBI) Industry British of eration

ropean Commission to the European Council [online] Available from: Available [online] Council European the to Commission ropean Confed of the A failure UNFCCC [2009] [2009] UNFCCC Security International and Change [2008]Climate Union. European the of Council

Eu http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/reports/99387.pdf 8 http://www.cbi.org.uk/media/1552876/energy_climatechangerpt_web.pdf 9 followed followed other major genocide, the Seattle World foreign policy establishment 6 7 multilateral multilateral processes to solve global failure diplomatic problems. Surprisingly, Copenhagen has discussions, and has certainly not prompted the type of reforms and reappraisals which expectations expectations and limited flexibility on the part of some major countries as 2°C a deliver to failure the cause of the There is, probably some truth in all of these narratives. What is clear i legacy of many and leaders distrust countries, deep and between reduced the in faith of ability many members to result in any substantive deal. of countries major small groups where processes diplomatic In contrast, others political agreement were at the heart of the final negotiations between Heads of State emerged and Government, many doubting that a very ambitious deal w not produ worth market carbon The process of reflection following Copenhagen led to outcome several different narrativ significant significant economic and social costs in all parts of the world. Hence, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) partie target. 2°C of the adequacy However, in Copenhagen these same leaders international agreement capable of delivering this objective. This is not to say did Copenhagen In 2009, global leaders at the Copenhagen reducing emissions enough to have a 50% chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C Analysis suggests catastrophic and irreversible changes to the climate system, though it would still result in 1.1 Diplomacy Climate of The Landscape 1: Chapter Understanding Climate Diplomacy 13

11 he

ent ent _mu

have have down down

- vailable vailable [online] A [online] [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

and and current gains till rising globally

- egime egime can only work if it : at shows shows that global poverty and and United Nations Security . Despite a large increase in [online] Available at: Available [online]

10 14 16 up” up” solutions which will deliver -

f Available Available

} CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/CC%20SPV%205663.pdf - session on climate and security and climate on session CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/CC%20A%2063%20PV.85.pdf

operation operation among the top issues for - - rd gly gly unattainable y (UNGA) 8CD3 [online - , including the UNGA and the G8

8CD3 . . There is no inherent tension between - 4E9C - ion ion ambition pre and post 2020 the ability to 2015 Development Agenda [2013] A new global partnership partnership global A new [2013] Agenda 2015 Development 4E9C - - 6D27 - 6D27 - carbon carbon global energy system beyond 2050 will be -

A decade of Extremes of A decade

Official Records of the 63 of the Records Official ence ence and analysis suggests that without international Provisional records of the 5667 meeting of the Security Council Council Security the of 5667 meeting of the records Provisional trajectories trajectories currently consistent with temperature rise of

World Energy Outlook Presentation to the press the to Presentation Outlook Energy World [online] Available at: Available [online]

emissions emissions

down approaches, unless one is proposed as a substitute for the other. other. the for substitute as a proposed one is unless approaches, down

have reiterated that uncontrolled climate change poses a threat to - mb_ged/wmo_1103_en.pdf

. The United Nations General Assembl in an above 2°C world. 2°C an above in 15

Turn down the heat the down Turn http://www.un.org/sg/management/pdf/HLP_P2015_Report.pd , with 13 –

s High Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post the on Eminent Persons of Panel Level High s 4.5°C - up and top and up - rship, and which they see as having a low priority among national foreign policy interests. policy foreign national among priority a low as having see they which and rship, ://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/pdf/pep/Peters_2012_TheChallengeToKeepGlobalWarmingBelow2C.NatureCC.pdf http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B United Nations Security Council (UNSC) [2007] [2007] (UNSC) Council Security Nations United Nation United International Energy Agency (IEA) [2011] [2011] (IEA) Agency Energy International [2012] Bank World [2009] (UNGA) Assembly General Nations United World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) [2013] (WMO) [2013] Organisation Meteorological World

at: Available [online] 2°C below warming global keep to [2012] Challenge The Project Carbon Global

at: at: 16 at: Available [online] http 12 http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2011/WEO2011_Press_Launch_London.pdf 13 http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world st_be_avoided.pdf 14 http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B 15 positive positive synergies to encourage greater ambition bottom 10 http://library.wmo.int/p 11 requires requires a broad and deep international climate regime. A regime which combines top direction from the UNFCCC, with stronger and deeper international cooperation through a raft of formal and informal institutions and networks at all levels. This r rests on strong national climate change programmes which are rooted in consensus domestic and political national development processes. Progress at all levels is required to provide extremely extremely challenging. But experi agreement it will be impossible; there are no credible “bottom future. 2°C a below This paper therefore starts from the proposition that successful climate risk managem mainstream diplomacy. mainstream Without agreement to a major increase in mitigat limit climate risks to below delivering 2°C the will necessary shift disappear. to Even a zero with a strong agreement, actually unsustainable unsustainable The primary institutions of the international system identified limiting climate change to below 2°C, in addition to a review adequacy clause of the to target, as assess a necessary condition t for sustaining global security and prosperity. This should have definitively put climate change co infrastructure around 4 Council (UNSC) international peace and security. A reduction wide and range development of goals analysis will be increasin owne Meanwhile the impacts of climate change become more intense national actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since 2009 they are s Even with sustained high oil prices, new energy investment is predominantly in high carbon tends to see climate change as an environmental negotiation for which they feel little Understanding Climate Diplomacy 14 e

and

– international international

term term solutions, ive approaches -

government actors. government an an honest gentleman -

lines” and “core interests”) iplomacy. iplomacy. determine determine and work to deliver their

eration. eration. Climate diplomacy is also not – or the Ministries of (MoEs) Environment

op - – in in particular the race against time. This paper

– cription cription of a diplomat as: “ state state actors -

ensure ensure its effective operation and evolution to address

nctions of climate diplomacy in constructing and managing 1 & 2) outlines the landscape of challenges which climate .”

nstrated nstrated once again that no international system is too big or s al and sub century century in his des hapter 3) lays out a framework for strengthening the practice of

C th hapter C into two sections: two into

government - trading trading concessions. It must successfully tackle the central problems which - divided ies can agree to construct an effective and fair regime to do this. this. do to fair regime and effective an construct to agree can ies recommendations for strengthening countries’ climateshared objective of avoiding dangerous climate change. diplomacy which would help achieve a deepening international climate regime. The second section ( climate diplomacy. It examines some of the most which effective and innovat have emerged in recent decades. It then puts forward some priority The first section ( diplomacy must address. It analyses past failures and successes offering a framework for understanding the evolving fu but an activity which draws upon the full range of government and non and government of range the full upon draws which activity an but

> The paper is is The paper > Because climate diplomacy is the craft and technique of constructing that regime, it must is ofthat regime, draw the craft diplomacy and Because climate constructing technique on the best practice of modern diplomacy, be allocated sufficient resources and be innovativ and creative in solving its unique challenges therefore aims to help bridge the gap between climate change and diplomatic d climate of capacity and practice global the improve to specialists order help in The 2008 financial crisis demo important to fail, and success in managing risks is not guaranteed just by convening high level Summits of powerful actors. Climate risks can be reduced to manageable levels, countr but only if not just horse underlie failure to deliver effective international co just the work of Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MFAs) – Henry Henry Wotton in the 15 his country for lie to sent abroad This is not the model of diplomacy used in this paper, as it does not accurately role describe the of modern diplomacy in delivering real outcomes on complex, issues. Climate existential diplomacy must be capable of building trust and shaping long Often diplomacy is described as if it is a purely tactical and operational activity. Diplomats are given instructions as to national objectives and constraints (“red and then work tactically to shape negotiations, construct alliances and develop arguments so as to gain the maximum national advantage. This tactical model of diplomacy is captured by complex complex international regime, and emerging challenges. Climate diplomacy is the interface between national interest debates and international cooperation. It increasingly non is the process through objectives. international which nation states It is the role of climate diplomacy to deliver the effective and timely construction of this Understanding Climate Diplomacy 15 in’ in’ -

carbon global - co2#data - data - together now account for

[online] Available at: at: Available [online]

country - – mitigation is a race against time. past emissions will be critical to ssions

emi -

[online] Available at: at: Available [online] dioxide - doubling of the normal rate of new energy t be retrospectively reduced back to safe 2011 Addressing

– [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

carbon - China, US and EU This demonstrates the asymmetrical nature of [online] Available at: at: Available [online] mature retirement of energy sector investments

– operation is necessary to limit climate change risk change climate limit to necessary is operation - naged pose naged they all threat to a credible the foundations

. To effectively control climate risk, global emissions need 20

World Energy Outlook Outlook Energy World . The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlooks 18 [2011] [2011] : each country is responsible for a proportion of climate change, Often, those least responsible for emissions will be hit first and orld Carbon emissions country by emissions Carbon orld

levels. Keeping below 2°C requires the shift to a zero term climate agreement. There is no exclusive “great power” agreement

- Who Owns Our Low Carbon Future? Carbon Low Our Owns Who : the existence of tipping points in the climate system and potential ‘lock ordination hallenge of Climate Diplomacy Climate of hallenge - Data blog: W blog: Data

report shows that unless low carbon investment is rapidly accelerated now, then

. The largest three emitters

operation, technology assistance and engagement with public attitudes. public with engagement and assistance technology operation, to essentially zero beyond 2050, so all these emitting countries need to be part of 19 uted evenly.

- ] Degrees of Risk: Defining a Risk Management Framework for Climate Security Climate for Framework Management Risk a Defining Risk: of ] Degrees

no no exclusive hard security solutions, and require a complex range of international The C The

emissions are growing rapidly to fall even a medium that can avoid dangerous climate change. securing an ambitious agreement. distrib hardest by extreme weather events. climate diplomacy, whereby a minority of countries cause an externality that harms the majority around 50% of emissions, but another 17 countries produce the next 40% and in many reaching 2°C will require the costly pre over the next few decades. Broad Co and all countries will be impacted. Both emissions and impacts are pervasive, but not If risks are not controlled in time they canno (i.e. below 2°C) energy system over the next half century, or a technology penetration (WEO) Rapid Rapid Pace of high carbon infrastructure means that climate change

International Energy Agency (IEA) (IEA) Agency Energy International E3G [2010 [2009] House Chatham

[2011] Guardian

carbonfuture.pdf 19 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2011_WEB.pdf 20 http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/31/world 17 http://www.e3g.org/docs/E3G_Degrees_of_Risk_Defining_a_Risk_Management_Framework_for_Climate_Security_Full_Report.p df 18 http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Energy,%20Environment%20and%20Development/r0909_low > However, However, three core elements make climate change even more challenging than other global issues: > scale, speed over which those threats will appear. They all pose threats to “hard security” but have cooperation across areas as diverse as development co energy assistance, transport policy, security, co international deep and broad Rapid, Climate change shares central features with other major foreign policy issues such as nuclear If proliferation maand badly terrorism. of prosperity and security, but all have high degrees of uncertainty over the sensitivity, range, 1.2 Understanding Climate Diplomacy 16

ous agreement. agreement. ous and assistance for ccounting measures

forces. Climate agreements ial ial benefits from joint climate people use and consume energy, By agreeing common rules and a

By acting together countries can pool resources to provide

ountries can see that the aggregate impact of their actions

: managing climate risk requires national changes which have a far

By acting inside an agreement countries build confidence that others

they provide a more credible signal to investors and the public. By setting binding commitments for countries that extend beyond single

impact on domestic economies and voters’ lives than most other diplomatic

: By acting together c deliver and that the allocation of effort and commitment to provide support has these challenges these A stronger formal climate change agreement is needed to tackle

coming coming these to challenges a dramatically transform wide range of in economies a limited political cycles Transparency and compliance: countries lay an objective foundation for ensuring comparability internationaland regime. adherence to the Public Goods and Assistance: public goods such as adaptation. international disaster response capability Commitment: will lead to a material domestic action. reduction in national climate risks thus encouraging Fairness: and Trust greater will been apportioned fairly. Impact are politically more contentious because decisions they require to explicit reform domestic production markets, government and impact consumers’ energy and transport choices. tackle the political economy of incumbent energy reaching agreements. Fundamental changes are required to how down to the prices they pay, the products they can buy and even makethe changes to they can their homes. While trade agreements economies may they do havethis mainly through a the action similar of market impact on country Deep domestic change

> > > > An international climate agreement An can international agreement ambitious support climate national and actionsregional in five ways: > No country can control the climate risk it faces on its own. However, the history of diplomacy is littered with examples showing that the awareness of potent them. capture to agreement international effective to lead automatically not does action alone timeframe timeframe will require unprecedented international cooperation and ambiti such securing to essential is change climate to of diplomacy application agreement. The full 1.3 Over > Understanding Climate Diplomacy 17

- l,

is worth

- nical nical and legal Coal and Carbon, Coal aintaining aintaining an open and and and multilateralism more national national interests around

- often highly tech

- fication fication of virtually any international f an agreement as this will limit their

impact impact that failure in the climate change

off in the current negotiations is caused by the current - etween etween the different policy elements that embody these

ation action and lowering the likelihood of a rapid low carbon offs with the national interest. This involves highly subjective

- which which only produces around 17% of global emissions

- offs b legal legal basis for an agreement. Alternatively, countries may look to -

, London June 2012 June , London

day activity in the climate change negotiations at the UNFCCC is concerned at the negotiations is UNFCCC in concerned change the climate day activity - the whole of government. of whole the to t possible agreement designs, the benchmarks for success will always be the -

, including one on climate change. Other countries to whetherwill the need one assess Otheron climate countries , including change. is essential to take climate action to the next level of ambition. Climate diplomacy is diplomacy of Climate level ambition. tonext action the climate is take essential to 21

- ed trading system. ed trading term? - . Assessing the costs and benefits of different options involves assessment and 22 bas - The United States has a long history of failing to ratify international treaties across a range of human rights, environmenta rights, of human range a across treaties international ratify to failing of a history has long States United The Research, HSBC Global see scenarios asset of stranded costs economic the of analysis of examples For enerally

ignal ignal to business and boosting investors their confidence in the global low carbon economy in

21 cases some in provisions their implementing it from not prevented has this although areas, economic and security http://www.internationalcomparison.org/intl_comp_files/sheet026.htm 22 risk the assessing Assets: Stranded critical to ensuring accurate assessment of the connection between the often abstract world of of abstract world often the between of the connection assessment accurate ensuring critical to international climate change agreements and climate often vulnerability, conflicting low carbon fairness. perceived and businesses sovereignty opportunities, high carbon asset exposure, negotiations negotiations may have on the stability and public acceptability of m rules Rebuilding trust in the ability of the multilateral climate regime g judgments across across judgments How a country engages in a multilateral regime is also based foreign on policy perceptions of interests its beyond broader climate change; for example, its view on maintaining the importance critical of bilateral alliances, or the exposure exposure to censure in any future regime. However, weaker legal force may undermine confidence the of businesses and investors that the world is on a credible low carbon trajectory, raising the national cost of mitig transition by raising capital costs and assets the amount of potentially “stranded” high carbon Climate Climate diplomacy manages the interface between these issues and assessment of trade judgements that link areas far beyond climate change. For example, countries often seek to provide some flexibility in the legal commitments o reluctance reluctance of the US Senate to give consent to the rati agreement cost of not including the US the price of having a strong develop a creative legal solution which maximises the benefits of cooperation without being the US. exclude seen to maintaining maintaining the support of the critical groups of countries? Can the agreement send a strong s the long Perhaps the most challenging trade with the balance and trade functions; for example, the legal form of agreement, design of any compliance and extentforof of are national transparency action. Although there requirements obviously a mechanisms range of differen same: is the agreement effective in limiting climate risk? Is the agreement stable in Much of the day Understanding Climate Diplomacy 18

– - agreement. agreement. For 5

ft.com/cms/s/0/ccfb504a This is not enough to put . 24 Shifts Shifts towards a low carbon international international http://www.

an an [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

renewables - agendas meaning governments had agendas tomeaning governments take [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

investment -

h h it is still building many more coal plants). Chinese Global investment in renewable energy sources grew

been been accelerated by

ve The Invention and Transfer of Environmental Technologies of Transfer Environmental and Invention The innovation:of a importance (althoug -

23 been been led and supported by national action, such as Germany and

whether whether on human rights, environment, trade or gender issues

clear policy signal – OECD (2010), (2010), OECD

to to reach a record level of US$211bn (£132bn)

Source: China retakes renewables investment lead investment renewables retakes China happening happening and ha Global investment in renewables to total $1.7 trillion by by 2020 $1.7 trillion total to in renewables investment Global

00144feab49a.html#axzz2YRBQQZUC - A successful climate regime requires synergies between 8780 - Incentives for eco 11e2

e transition to a low carbon economy and ensuring resilience to a 2°C climate will require Financial Times [2013] [2013] Times Financial [2010] Guardian

23 5e32 24 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/dec/08/global global diplomatic process has achieved in the last decade. decade. last the in achieved has process diplomatic global This global progress has also Denmark’s pioneering investments in renewable energy in the surprising. Global 1990’s. action This should not be investor investor in renewable energy renewable energy targets mirror the EU, and China’s growing solar industry is dependent on Europe for the majority of its demand. by 32% during 2010 the world onto a 2°C trajectory, but it is the most tangible economic impact that any other Copenhagen forced onto climate domestic political a position. European renewable energy targets would not have been agreed in 2007 without the prospect of global climate negotiations at Copenhagen. China is the world’s largest economy economy are example, the Kyoto Protocol also 1). Figure (see development spurred a global revolution in low carbon technology Patents Technology Carbon on Low Protocol of Kyoto Impact Figure1: national and international action international and national Th major structural reforms at national and international levels. 1.4 Understanding Climate Diplomacy 19

he he The The

l elites s drive . T . 26 in in areas 27 effective effective

nge nge is too

world trade

cha politica

, , even though implications implications for

. 25 priority

diluted diluted and operation.

and and increasing global carrying carrying out effective

ion ion or through unilateral that climate that climate e necessary change on its

in in flux, the rise of emerging been

Polls show that s the Doha round of ha ity an an immediate . This has significant

[online] Available at: at: Available [online]

example, example, through through cooperat effective effective international cooperation the the conditions for

action broader and systemic decrease in global r this wide range of co of wide range this r

s for for diplomacy.

risk

continued continued shift of economic and political power In In one space global global power balance is he he 00144feab7de.html halt. halt. -

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a4b4 - challenging challenging to between between global, regional and national activity. Leading especially especially in Europe and the US,

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sufficiency, direct resource and land investment abroad) investment land and resource direct sufficiency, - the operating bbf9

reinforced perceptions in some in reinforced perceptions quarters - In In addition, t

e . consider consider climate change look look to manage such Eurobarometer survey shows increased public concern and awareness of economic benefits of of benefits economic of awareness and concern public increased shows survey Eurobarometer reciprocity

s , significantly undermining http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2011100702_en.htm Resources Futures Resources Martin Wolf: Why the world faces climate chaos climate faces world the Why Wolf: Martin effectively ground to a to ground effectively become become harder to form.

do not olved olved seems to seems have has

the Copenhagen Summit.

have have emerging emerging economies is public public

Climate cooperation faces a more challenging environment but

[online] Available at: at: Available [online]

the

wards Financial Times [2013] Times Financial [2013] House Chatham European Commission [2011] [2011] Commission European

action 26 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c926f6e8 27 http://www.resourcesfutures.org/downloads/Future_Resources_Executive_Summary_17.01.13.pdf 25 The growing interdependence and globalisation witnessed over challenged the the international governance past system in how few it responds to decades systemic risks has such as financial stability, resource trade and food prices whether government self national (e.g. approaches multilateral multilateral negotiations to political landscape is more complex, coalitions leadership capac negotiations Copenhagen Copenhagen complex to solve, particularly among some foreign policy and economic commentators economic crisis has further cooperative contributed capacity to a was before economies, increasing austerity interdependences challeng and countries major in all broad remains change on climate action for support 1.5 opportunities real some also The broader environment for delivering international cooperation is more challenging than it agreement agreement and “bottom up” action. Neither is sufficient to drive th own. As with other foreign policy areas, “climate regime” to encompass all these different levels and types of including the agreement, this paper uses the concept ove acts and engages of diplomacy Climate UNFCCC. an international countries show what can be done, global treaties agree what needs to be done and mobilise political leadership behind it, and a range of international, regional and local institution delivered. are sure promises make to support national political the build and implementation Building the conditions for ambitious action requires an effective blend of “top down” has always inv Understanding Climate Diplomacy 20 Electric -

. 29 launch launch political -

From From 2011 to 2012, nd nd 19%, respectively, In In 2012, Hybrid

28 introduced introduced a raft of binding

30 ncy ncy will become more critical to

opportunities opportunities and momentum for greater effective effective engagement with these broader al al ole ole of government” approach is needed to grow. grow. This helps to connect discussions at the

http://www.iea.org/publications/TCEP_web.pdf

potenti ses, ses, rebalance their economies and move to higher . 31 and reduce fossil fuel use. fuel fossil reduce and

[online] Available at: at: Available [online]

which which provide on on food and water. Therefore, the task of climate diplomacy is to act act in the run up to the US elections and helped to re

Five Year Plan Year Five

th m China. This is allowing it breathing space to consider alternative, more China’s 12 China’s Tracking clean energy progress energy clean Tracking (outlined (outlined below) w.e3g.org/images/uploads/E3G_Chinese_Challenge_or_Low_Carbon_Opportunity_updated.pdf

World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council, P. R. China. 2013. China 2030: Building a Modern, Modern, a 2030: Building China 2013. China. P. R. Council, State of the Center Research Development the and Bank World

ibid E3G [2010]

IEA [2013] [2013] IEA

29 30 http://ww 31 DC Washington, Society. Creative and Harmonious, address address climate change, and this approach must diplomacy. climate be reflected in the design and scope of 28 Increasingly, Increasingly, tackling climate change requires processes and issues, and the environment institutions or that energy govern ministries them. Increasingly, alone countries This are cannot at realising be either that done “wh the by national or international level. ensure ensure climate change issues are embedded into their example, national Brazil economic is transitions. considering its For future as a demand commodities exporter fro given the slowdown in sustainable development pathways. China is paths development 2030 of assessment explicitly incorporating these issues into its Many emerging economies are undertaking economic transitions over the coming decade as they continue their urbanization proces value industries. Many are development goals to resource and volatility scarcity,growing price fossil fuel and dependency recognizing the vulnerability of their climate economic change impacts models and international international level with impacts on the national economy, thereby animating new voices and messengers to push for greater ambition domestically. For example, Superstorm Sandy had a significant political imp Administration. Obama by the change on climate discussion measures to improve energy efficiency efficiency energy improve to measures Climate impacts are becoming increasingly material to both the worlds, and developed scientific confidence attributing and the frequency, severity developing and incidence of extreme weather events to climate change continues to despite despite ongoing economic and policy turbulence year the to previous in 43% compared up mark, million one the broke sales Vehicle the sector. As resource prices will likely remain volatile, resource efficie national economic strategies. Many emerging economies are beginning to see the benefits of resource efficiency. For example, China’s 12th Five Year Plan trends trends change. climate tackle to cooperation international Critically, there is now a strong and growing global low carbon sector. solar photovoltaic and wind technologies grew by an impressive 42% a However, despite a context that is generally unfavourable to multilateralism, there are other Understanding Climate Diplomacy 21 that

peaceful peaceful operation operation -

Agency Agency (IAEA) to the from from arms control to

failure are complex and and complex are failure scale, scale, global shifts in

– -

and and concerted diplomacy,

and, and, as described above, the

nternational cooperation nternational History History has demonstrated that diplomatic

: there may be such a fundamental daunting, daunting, but this does not mean

unachievable. unachievable. y as strong as the political will and diplomatic

may may seem

. tions of Climate Diplomacy Climate of tions diplomacy diplomacy

the seeds of this international this of the seeds

– n the negotiating chamber. chamber. negotiating the n give to their negotiators precludes the chance of an agreement before s facing climate ence between the perceived national interests of countries, which must be in the The Scope and Func and Scope The

core of a stable and effective agreement. agreement, that In there is this no governments potential case, for a workable the incompatibility between the instructions national Absence of political conditions diverg for agreement

which climate diplomacy must work to overcome: to work must diplomacy climate which > regime. But international institutions are onl energy emerging from its members. As with most global prevention conflict trade to problems withi solely rarely lie There are four different, though interlinked, modes of failure for global climate co i in failures multiple address must diplomacy climate Effective The current failure to drive a sufficient international change response is to often cited avoid as dangerous evidence that climate the UNFCCC is a flawed and ineffective international complicated geopolitical landscapes which impinge on vital areas of sovereign control. control. of sovereign vitalon areas impinge which landscapes geopolitical complicated Experience shows that with the application of international political cooperation support can be forged to handle change. bothclimate tackle to is required effort concerted A similar challenges. longstanding and emerging global the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after WWII. transition Diplomacy of economies and governance in Europe managed after the Cold War. the Diplomacy has created largely systems to seize terrorist assets multilateral regimes across from the WTO the to the International globe. Atomic Energy United Diplomacy has Nations crafted Convention an of array the of Law of the Sea (UNCLOS); balancing sensitive and achievements achievements of the current overlooked often are investment climate regime in delivering large Diplomacy has deployed soft power national agendas as well as the to workings of government. For example, diplomacy engineered shape mindsets and influence international and projects diplomatic other of legacy successful the on draw must diplomacy Climate The challenge agreement on an effective climate regime is great transformations are possible in the course of a few years and the international climate regime climate international and the 2.1 Chapter 2: The evolution of climate diplomacy Understanding Climate Diplomacy 22

such such as

–

m level of duces a lower ail to reach an operation, financial - tential agreement. this this is the most critical area table to others. To remedy this,

ree areas, but it also a has key to role : when political agreement has been

accep - : even when there is an area of potential delivery and integrating climate issues across - e to bad faith, lack of capacity or changes in

are far less powerful than many high carbon transparency, compliance, co

countries’ countries’ national interest conversations. It is a –

– understanding understanding of their underlying interests, and of the of under

: agreement at the international level may not be matched As in all other areas of policy, the process of forming the national the national all otherAs in of areas of forming process policy, the

and and other

–

process of cooperation. he he debate on national interest is in its infancy, In In many countries (developed and developing), climate change is not core to

tructions. terest debate. debate. terest promote the all relevant institutions which make up the broader regime e.g. trade, investment, public and private finance, development cooperation etc. action. The international climate regime must be designed risks through to effective manage mechanisms for implementation and technical support, review and dynamic regime evolution.build systems to deliver Climateeffective delivery, not diplomacyjust headline agreement. mustThe regime must be capable of managing the risks ambition, and complement these with networks of informal engagement and to build trust Failure of implementation with adequate national action either du circumstances. The political process delivers the formal outcome, but not the means for reached in principle, the conduct, choreography tasked or form with of the capturing international process a ambition outcome potentiallythan otherwise might politicallybe possible, or even viable produces outright Many failure. agreementargue this was the pro case for the UNFCCC process at diplomacyCopenhagen must in work 2009.to designClimate processes which are conducive to the maximu outcome which is perceived as fair or politically climate diplomacy must work to build levels of trust, mutual understanding and a sense of common endeavour which allows countries to find the area of po Failure to capture the highest ambition possible understanding of the national interest in key countries so their negotiators receive more flexible ins Failure to construct a fair political agreement agreement which would meet all countries’ national interest conditions, the political process of negotiations between core countries to the agreement may f negotiations even begin. The only solution to this failure is to work to change the

for climate diplomacy to influence in order to deliver a 2°C damages climate are poorly understood at the national regime. level and the affected constituencies Climate change farmers or coastal city administrations the national in interest is politically contested, may be dominated by unrepresentative and narrow interest information. perfect than on less depends often and groups, In some countries t play play in shaping its own convention in much of international relations to national assume positions based that on a countries mature have well defined interests of others. This is seldom the case climate in change. complex and rapidly evolving areas such as Climate diplomacy seen is often as on focusing the last th > > >

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 23 The The . ergy in to improve

nergy nergy target at shooting shooting and crisis - aunched aunched in 1990. This thinking thinking approaches to - l interdependencies mean lishment lishment of the International

deliver deliver an ambitious outcome, but

Climate Climate diplomacy is the practice and process estimate estimate their own degree of leadership. In all - offs offs between current economic growth and future - ive ive discipline. But while trouble t currently assessed in any national adaptation plan.

This demonstrates how reactive diplomacy is not sufficient to estimated estimated in political discussions. Globa -

international climate international change regime and ensuring its effective operation pursuit pursuit of joint objectives. But countries have very poor information on what hosted hosted conference in 2004 directly leading to the estab - Evolution of Climate Diplomacy Climate of Evolution

Figure Figure 2 illustrates the evolution in the focus of climate diplomacy practice which has place taken in the two decades since negotiations for shift process, on the a relatively narrow UNFCCC period from focus diplomacy seen has climate the UNFCCC were l to a more complex and wider discipline that now engages new constituencies and embraces discussions. geopolitical broader Renewable Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2009 which is becoming a major climate pillar of the change broader regime. construct the international climate change regime success. achieve to expertise and insights strategic require to The recommendations of this taskforce informed EU approaches were to the (failed) blocked negotiations on a by global renewable e the the Johannesburg Summit in 2002, and the creation by Bush the UK of the international Renewable Administration, but Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP). German These issues were taken forward by a evolution evolution of climate diplomacy therefore precedes regime. climate and shapes the construction of the For example, identification of developing market countries led to failures the G8 Renewable around Energy Task Force the being established in use 2000. of renewable en Defining climate diplomacy climate Defining Diplomacy is generally seen as a react management are a major part of diplomatic practice, so are forward designing solutions to international problems. of creating the to decision makers the consequences of failure. consequences the makers to decision 2.2 are addressing climate change, their delivery of past promises sovereignty in and the willingness to pool others are actually doing, and generally over these of areas the a interest climate has diplomacy national key debate role to play the of understanding what is at stake, expand the possible space of makeagreement and clear prosperity prosperity are often over that markets in on of and change the short climate the food supply impacts term, international chains will often reduce real incomes and national stability more than direct national climatic impacts. But these external risks are no National willingness to act is strongly shaped by perceptions of how seriously other countries industries. This means that perceived trade Understanding Climate Diplomacy 24

especially especially those with

– ’ ’ approach

and MFA and MFA UNFCCC – MoE departments

Trade, Security, Security, Development, Trade, national interests interests discussions national on Implementation and Integration and Implementation ‘Whole of of ‘Whole Government Finance, Finance, Humanitarian and Health split between split between Aligning climate strategies climate Aligningstrategies with other - Evolution includes includes strong ministerial engagement – to work to set the agenda. the agenda. set to work to

– Building the international Building the international political conditions Includes regional regional Includes dialogues near & negotiations

Negotiating a global global a Negotiating agreement Negotiator Driven Negotiator Usually MFA led led MFA Usually

soused its tosoused domestic help experience drive a ondebate climate “Loss and as stimulated very creative approaches by countries i t x y C o p e m at the UNFCCC. This shows how countries can use the more egalitarian forum of

Evolution of Climate Diplomacy Practice Diplomacy of Climate Evolution 32 Negotiating a global agreement global a Negotiating

i. Loss Loss and Damage refers to the concept of residual impacts of climate change once mitigation and adaptation is taken into

32 account.

resilience. resilience. It al has Damage” regime. the shape to the UNFCCC The first stage of climate diplomacy is delivering effective process. representation This into h the UNFCCC resources diplomatic traditional fewer Box 1 outlines how Bangladesh has reframed its “vulnerability” into a positive focus on diplomacy: climate effective delivering to stages critical three There are Figure 2: Understanding Climate Diplomacy 25 address address

2008, 2008, 8,241 – 1990 fforts fforts to influence

meteorological meteorological and -

(GoB) initiated the “Loss

level level planning in Bangladesh

. - dership parts. ions, ions, will be an important part of - various various hydro

tween tween the realities on the ground in mage for the benefit of the LDCs and national

Institute Institute for Environmental and Human - with with broader diplomatic e

rsity – of climate change, while the cost of damage was US$2.2

peared peared in negotiations under the UNFCCC at COP 13. It was

cy than many of their counter of many than cy GDP GDP was 1.81 per cent. However, the political will to

usually usually led by specialist divisions inside Ministries of Environment

In In 2010, the Global Climate Risk Index stated that in

–

he country’s ambition to he country’s ambition increase its resilience considerably despite its high e e countries made gradual progress towards the global for framework reducing EHS), EHS), International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) and - Building the international political conditions political international the Building

ii.

country country positions outside the negotiations. Initially climate negotiators mainly implemented through direct visits at these official and ministerial level to key countries e.g. demarches to The next stage in the evolution of climate diplomacy has been the augmentation of technical UNFCCC negotiations (MoE) or Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MFAs) Knowledge Knowledge Network (CDKN). The GoB is working with a includes consortium of Germanwatch, organizations, which United Nations Unive Security (UNU this work out carry to (MCII) Initiative Insurance Climate Munich Motivated Motivated by the need to understand more about this emerging issue to shape and influence international UNFCCC negotiations, the Government of Bangladesh and Damage in Vulnerable understanding around loss and Countries damage and provide insight into what it Initiative” entails for vulnerable in countries, 2011. and move forward the debate on In loss and da order to other vulnerable countries, the GoB build requested assistance from the Climate and a Development common people died in Bangladesh as a result billion per year and loss of impacts and incorporate climate change forms the ofbasis t issues into vulnerability. of level countries reflecting into the substance negotiated at the international level. Many vulnerable countries cooperated to raise the profile of Loss and Damage at COP 19, despite having fewer diploma to devote to resources Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate socioeconomic change factors. is due to At the COP, whil greenhouse gas emissions, there were intense discussions about the issue of loss and damage be addressed. could this how and Such developments demonstrate the iterative process be action. Loss and Damage first formally ap further legitimised at COP 16 in Mexico as part of the Cancun which Adaptation Framework a under work programme on loss and damage was established Doha. to report back at COP 18 in Existing Existing mitigation are and toefforts adaptation not enough prevent relatedall change climate impacts. Therefore, addressing residual loss and damage, the climate change impacts that we are unable to prevent through mitigation and adaptation act the future response to increasingly climate relevant topic for the international community change. given current insufficient levels of Loss and damage is an emerging field and an Lea International to Action National From Bangladesh: 1: Box Understanding Climate Diplomacy 26

otiating otiating especially especially

attempt attempt to -

shaping shaping the international international

founded founded at the

, to focus was seen by some to

Despite initial concerns

is another example of a . , demonstrating that the

33 multiplication multiplication of platforms and diluted diluted across the multitude of leaders , and climate being incorporated

discussions http://www.majoreconomiesforum.org/ was split between too many processes attention attention was focused on

- climate climate their their existence and

this this only allowed for engagement with a small international international

diplomatic diplomatic [online] Available at: at: Available [online] . This resulted in a

Climate Climate Vulnerables Forum (CVF) as the CVF and MEF shows the growing scope of the

lop conceptual propositions based lop conceptual on issues crunch in te te change d Summits. d election. , a seventeen country group hosted by the US since 2009 - clima

significant significant

a global partnership of Executive Summary Executive

- of climate change by key ministers on their international trips and

so many different

ver ver a strong outcome. The capacity of climate specialists

a safe space to deve level meetings an meetings level

sideline sideline the formal UNFCCC negotiations, it has had minimal impact on the -

s ats to national interest are likely to drive the most proactive of diplomatic shaping shaping the political discussions in capitals threats posed by morphed into

Political Political leaders involved in the CVF have been described as “using their status as s provide

Technology Action Plan Action Technology . ha

aimed aimed at

CVF ues. ues. MEF [2009] MEF [2009]

ven 33 international international climate regime. However, in advance of the Copenhagen Summit the seed climate change into weaken the ability to deli from poorer countries who field smaller delegations and some argue that the impetus for agreement became that the MEF could negotiation to date. There is potential for this forum to be reinvigorated given the US’s focus re Obama’s since change on climate The development of additional fora such The Major Economies Forum (MEF) (accounting for roughly 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions), forum that the negotiations such as transparency and accountability, or to develop require propositions international which cooperation such as technology action plans table”. Forum Economies Major attention attention on their plight as a precursor to more harmful impacts elsewhere around the world The most serious thre responses those most vulnerable to climate change to punch far above their weight at the neg Forum Vulnerables Climate One new forum that emerged was the initiative of the Maldives when eleven vulnerable countries from across the world met in 2009 to highlight the In In the run up to Copenhagen, political conditions for a global agreement forums into a range of existing international processes such as the G8, G20 ministerial bilateral and many regional and number number of actors. To increase influencing “band width” countries required mobilisation of and generalist diplomats who are impact permanently stationed in key a significant range of capitals, and prioritisation engagements. diplomatic key capitals. However, given limited capacity Understanding Climate Diplomacy 27 - lateral lateral -

requires requires high

ew approaches ew approaches ating use of non ating

. uch uch as the security 34 erstanding erstanding the most [online] Available at: Available [online]

2000’s the breadth of climate - allocation allocation of human and funding - trade trade disputes; most notably over he he EU has built significant bilateral traditional traditional actors s - r example, the UK Environment Attaches r the UK Environment example,

ows, ows, and has become a core area of discussion in the

Millennium Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) framework to be agreed in - ns alongside ns other alongside national priorities, and for n designing

climate climate change goals on the ground. While this evolution in scope and

Hot Issues, Lukewarm Partners: EU Strategic Partnerships and Climate Change Climate and Partnerships EU Strategic Partners: Lukewarm Issues, Hot in in by senior ministers and officials, significant re - Implementation and Integration and Implementation negotiations negotiations at the UNFCCC. However, since the mid mple, international discussions on the security implications of climate change were first on of discussions implications were mple, first the security change international climate

ranking diplomatic staff from around the world. the around from staff diplomatic ranking

- iii. FRIDE [2012] [2012] FRIDE

34 http://www.fride.org/download/RP2_EU_Strategic_Partnerships_and_Climate_Change.pdf These These trends lead to significant international institutio challenges for integration of climate for change implementing into other incorporation incorporation of international aviation into the EU Emission Trading Scheme and current US and EU disputes with China over subsidies finance is a growing part to of official aid fl solar panel manufacturers. Climate change debates over the post 2015. held held at the UNSC in 2007, and have been followed up regularly in the UNSC and UNGA. These discussions push climate change onto the agenda of non community. Empowering new actors and advocates is essential to broadening the legitimacy and credibility of the climate threat. Implementation of policies and subsidies to support low carbon economic development have led to a range of These dialogues, though significant, are still mainly focused on supporting formal and shaping the diplomacy activity has broadened and deepened again due economy. carbon the low of to growth the drive and change climate of impacts growing the need to respond to the For exa partnerships with China, India, Brazil and South Africa over the past decade over the South Africa and Brazil India, China, with partnerships mid incorpor has increased, efforts engagement these of complexity the time Over governmental specialists, use of project funding to support local analysis of impacts and opportunities for low carbon climate development, and establishment of formal bi change partnerships on climate change issues. For example, t climate climate regime is a institutional effort even the for It significant countries. largest level buy resources, training and coordination of generalist diplomats and content Fo provide and for support influencing. timely strong central capacity to Network was built through a series of annual meetings in London in2000 involving over 40 separated separated from the practicalities of developing enough climate diplomacy capacity which can effectively utilise them. Countries also need to have a clear strategic und invest. to in which relationships and venues important Mobilisation of the capacity and strategic focus needed to engage effectively in the expanded The preparation for Copenhagen shows how the design of international processes cannot be Understanding Climate Diplomacy 28

– nt nt powerful powerful

case case WTO - 2005

often often engage

China China Solar Panel - ned. Prevention power, power, leverage and sources sources and political

states states voted against the

35 Preventative Diplomacy, 2008 Diplomacy, 2008 Preventative is weake Investing in Investing

s?e=1954584/3278037 - has has been seen to result in lower [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

human in in Europe greater involvement of -

, 26 [online] Available at: at: Available [online] -- [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

Industry, Industry, Trade and Energy isputes isputes will become an increasingly common prevention - . Even countries which have been relatively 38 For example ; EWI High Level Task Force on Force Task Level High EWI ;

conflict - 00144feab7de.html#ixzz2U0oN2tOr 00144feab7de.html#ixzz2VLbXeBLK . Such d - - on 37 Ministries of Environment Ministries -

06/04/c_132430788.htm 9767 90e8 - - - 11e2 11e2 ort to increase public investment in lower carbon energy and dumping duties on Chinese solar panels solar Chinese on duties dumping initiatives - - cutting cutting issues -

- such such as

Finance, Finance, Planning, - proliferation proliferation effective international action requires a “whole of c140 cd02 - - -

. Currently tariffs in with the case reduced is place unresolved interim 36

Brussels offers Beijing reprieve in Solar panel dispute panel in Solar reprieve Beijing offers Brussels Down Cool to needs Dispute Panel Solar Editorial: FT ch ch has responsibility for trade policy) proposed punitive tariffs on Chinese . Ministries Ministries of

traditional actors traditional actors

EU imposes provisional anti provisional EU imposes ing ing equipment to China. Eighteen European Member the such such as European wines European movers in key sectors. in key movers - mainstreaming mainstreaming of climate into new institutions has brought onboard new actors. But this flict flict prevention and non Financial Times [2013] [2013] Times Financial UK Government see: prevention on conflict issues of government whole of examples For Xinhua [2013] [2013] Xinhua [2013] Times Financial

37 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/01b4e1d2 38 http://www.gsdrc.org/go/display/document/legacyid/1684 http://issuu.com/ewipublications/docs/new successful successful at driving a whole of government approach 35 (e.g. Mexico under Calderon’s http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2013 36 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1038136e department, department, no matter how powerful. As con with other major foreign policy issues government” approach. such However, this is easier said than as implemented, and the experience of other policy areas shows the difficultly in aligning country interests, activity re around complex cross climate climate ambition, as they tend to undervalue the costs of future climate risk and put the goal of meeting fiscal limits above eff efficiency energy Delivering an effective climate diplomacy strategy is beyond the capacity of any one agency of of agency agents inconsistently and defensively and do not yet systematically prioritise climate change action and in some cases block climate efforts. Ministries of Finance and Economy in climate policy making rapid rapid transition to a global low carbon economy and the early commercial rewards available for This positive development has also led to tensions inside governments as the against against proceed. while negotiations Balancing such conflicting economic, energy, climate change and policy diplomatic coordination at the goals highest level requires feature of climate diplomacy given the level of government intervention needed to drive a solar panel imports. This move was opposed depend by a on large coalition affordable of Chinese EU companies manufactur solar which panel imports, and Commission’s by decision (and companies only exporting four solar were economic in or favour) climate change saying interests. a China dispute meanwhile was is preparing not a in counter their challenges for the conduct of effective climate diplomacy. diplomacy. climate of effective conduct the for challenges A good example of the difficulty of integration is given by the subsidy current EU dispute. Following complaints from some Commission (whi EU solar manufacturers, the European complexity is a sign of success in terms of delivering climate change goals, it raises significa Understanding Climate Diplomacy 29 faceted - ng game off rather DC (Least -

ning ning effort, negotiations - tradi ent the formal - sum horse - lignments around ambition, rs (Pemex’s role in Mexico’s

nd coordinate. These para develop their positions; for example, BASIC

focused forum to discuss climate issues and - negotiation groups reflects the multi -

: the space where textual agreements are formed inside the : These are fora completely outside the UNFCCC process that : provide a ‘safe space’ for countries to come together, test ideas ations

negotiations - mprehensive mprehensive due the complexity and fluidity of many of the processes, but the The Evolution of the International Climate Change Regime Change Climate International the of Evolution The The near negoti provide an alternative, more politically negotiations and supplement the more formal groupings. Countries are often membersof several different groups development based level, on their regional complexity different affiliation and a and proliferation sectoral ofinterests of countries in the climate regime. para interest (e.g. Forestry). The parallel processes by which groups align and and Cartagena Dialogue do not negotiate together in the align UNFCCC, their but positioning, coordinate whereas and AILAC (Association of Independent CaribbeanLatin American Countries) and negotiate as a hover group somewhere a between formal and informal meetings, often meet away from the Australia, New Zealand), AOSIS (Alliance Developed Country) of group. Small Island States), and the L The para and put forward proposals in direct relation to the formal negotiations. They include where countries mainly focus on what divides them than and on finding areassolutions. The formal to discussions in be the negotiations traded are surrounded by a network of informal discussions, alliances and relationships which supplem processes in order to help reach agreement, including enduring negotiating groups such as the G77 and China, the “Umbrella Group” (US, Japan, Canada, Norway, Russia, The formal negotiations context of the UNFCCC structure international and processes its everything rules is seen of as procedure. part As of a with zero other formal

> > climate regime. climate > Figure Figure 3 is a highly simplified illustration of groupings which some currently make of up the the international climate critical regime. The descriptions institutions, below alliances and are not co diagram aims to provide a functional different framework alliances, for processes organising and the initiatives which bewildering make range up of the four main “layers” of the As discussed above, climate diplomacy has both led and responded to international climate regime. The regime the has evolved to become far broader than the UNFCCC evolution of the though this remains the risk. keystone assessing and assistance mobilising institution in terms of setting goals, alig economy). economy). to will need reach its diplomacy capacity strengthen continually and Climate inside tensions. these manage to order in outside governments and 2.3 leadership) still face substantial political economy barrie Understanding Climate Diplomacy 30 KfW KfW

– tively tively - (GCF), Global (GCF),

development; development; –

work to directly directly to work

imate Change (IPCC); (IPCC); Change imate stakeholder partnerships partnerships stakeholder -

level networks feeding climate climate feeding networks level organisations http://www.unisdr.org/archive/33474 -

: t

s which provide vital services to the the to services vital provide which s nge risks is led by the UN International International UN by the is led risks nge : Finally there is the broader international [online] Available a Available [online] of international of international

. Intergovernmental and multi and . Intergovernmental These groups may combine discussions of the UNFCCC 39

ited Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Nations United (UNDP), Programme Development Nations ited (GEF) and independent Multilateral Development Banks Banks Development Multilateral independent and (GEF)

– nts. This includes broad processes such as the G8 and G20,

t implications for climate issues (e.g. on trade in low carbon : a growing number growing : a

rnational rnational climate regime Facility Facility : a range of independent institution of independent a range : BNDES). Capacity building institutions such as United Nations Environment Environment as Nations United such institutions building Capacity BNDES). lateral funders (e.g. national development banks such as in Germany Germany as in such banks national development (e.g. funders lateral

- - related initiatives. They informally feed back into the UNFCCC through the Climate Change declared Public Enemy No 1 No Enemy Public declared Change Climate - “public enemy number one” number enemy “public Programme (UNEP), Un (UNEP), Programme bilateral and Bank World the (UNIDO), Organisation Development Industrial reduction disaster risk of implementing work vital The agencies. development cha climate immediate of face in the strategies as change climate identified recently which (UNISDR), Reduction Disaster for Strategy chlorofluorocarbons (HFCs). Financing institutions with formal links to the UNFCCC UNFCCC the to links formal with institutions Financing (HFCs). chlorofluorocarbons Fund Climate Green Board, (CDM) Mechanism Development (the Clean Environment (MDBs), bi Brazil and Implementation of Control development. resilient climate and carbon low of implementation support Aviation Civil the International by covered is emissions maritime and aviation respec (IMO) Organisation Maritime the International (ICAO) and Organisation Hydra (CFCs) and Chlorofluorocarbons controls Protocol the Montreal and (UNEP) and others providing analysis on the scale of the ambition gap and of the state the state of and gap ambition the of scale on the analysis providing others and (UNEP) technological and low carbon towards transformation system of energy Assistance Development and Cooperation Economic for the Organisation and official and finance of climate flows measuring rules for setting DAC) (OECD Committee change. climate to related assistance development Information World the include: These regime. broader and negotiations change climate national its (WMO) and Organisation Meteorological on Cl Panel Intergovernmental the into analysis impact risk and Programme Environment Nations United the (IEA), Agency Energy the International

  will have significan technology), but have their own climate regime can be usefully split negotiating into four functional areas: and governance systems. The broader Energy Ministerial (CEM) which focuses on technology demonstration and cooperation,and not the UNFCCC. The broader inte regime which includes a range of formal and informal forums Organisationsuch as (WTO) the andWorld Trade UNSC. These alternate venues establish rules and laws which government participa dedicated meetings such as the Dialogue Major which focus on Economiesmajor groups of Forumcountries and include (MEF) bilateral activity and such discussionsas the on climate Petersberg change. agenda with work on additional initiatives. For example, the MEF spun off the Clean progress

UN ISDR [2013] [2013] ISDR UN

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 31

- ch as the United United the ch as government organizations organizations government - n, International Renewable Energy Energy Renewable International n, have active processes to manage the the manage to processes active have

rammes. Responses to increasing increasing to Responses rammes. development institutions such as the World World the as such institutions development

but integrating climate change would require require would change climate integrating but

perverse fossil fuel subsidies, and promoted action action promoted and subsidies, fuel fossil perverse –

organisations of programmes. As already mentioned the UNSC has has UNSC the mentioned As already of programmes.

nment and development non development and nment across broader government decision making processes. E.g. the E.g. processes. making decision government broader across

: Working across the whole regime and negotiations are non are negotiations and regime whole the across Working : many international international many innovative platforms to accelerate the transfer of clean technologies. of clean transfer the accelerate to platforms innovative

China Strategic Partnership). Partnership). Strategic China ion: ion: - sed the liberalization of low carbon goods and services, but this agenda has has this agenda but services, and goods carbon of low liberalization sed the

businesses. Representation levels. at all implementation and process the to influence aiming groups governmental enviro the These include and groups indigenous unions, trade GLOBE), (e.g. (NGOs), parliamentarians UNFCCC as well as their own climate change programmes. The WTO has unsuccessfully has unsuccessfully WTO The programmes. change climate own their as as well UNFCCC addres Intellectual World The agreements. trade bilateral and in regional progressed been is and patents low carbon of a landscape established has (WIPO) Organisation Property developing humanitarian disasters due to climate change have been incorporated into the work of work the into incorporated been have change climate to due disasters humanitarian High the and (OCHA) Affairs Humanitarian of of Coordination the UN Office su treaties environmental Other (UNHCR). Refugees on Commissioner to Convention Nations United and (UNCBD) on Biodiversity Convention Nations with the agreements cooperative formal have (UNCCD) Desertification Combat playing a role in analysing the fiscal burdens of fossil fuel subsidies, supported by by supported subsidies, fuel of fossil burdens fiscal the analysing in a role playing Core OECD. IEA and the from analysis (WHO) Organisation Health World (FAO) and Organisation Agricultural and Food Bank, health and security food development, on change climate of impact the have assessed prog their into responses are integrating and emissions and building resilience resilience building and emissions portfolio its entire adjusting and other regional there are and times, several security and change climate discussed change. climate from instability and security to threats on assessing national processes out phase to agreed has The G20 is (IMF) Fund Monetary The International finance. carbon low and growth on green Integrat core in their policies change climate and impacts change of climate implications to change climate requires integration implementation, to similar Whilst functions. embedded become reducing at aimed programs and projects specific climate implements World Bank Agency (IRENA), Global Green Growth Institute (GGGi), Clean Energy for All, C40 (Cities (Cities C40 All, for Clean Energy (GGGi), Institute Growth Green Global (IRENA), Agency cooperation bilateral and Action) of Climate (Regions R20 Group), Leadership Climate EU (e.g. and organisations such as the Clean Air Coalitio Air Clean the as such organisations and

 

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 32

- IMF WHO FAO WTO efit from CBD/CD WIPO Integration Bank World UN GA UN

Council UN Security Security UN figure 3 illustrates, 3 illustrates, figure

- Regional Regional Summits BASIC Major Forum

Economies

Dialogue Dialogue Cartagena Cartagena Petersburg Petersburg IEA comprehensive comprehensive UNEP - Groups Businesses Indigenous EU up, up, or in response to, the Copenhagen - LDCs LMDC - partnerships partnerships in the broader climate regime

DAC arians - OECD OECD Para Group Parliament G77/China Formal Like Minded Like Information but still non still but AOSIS

Negotiations Negotiations AILAC – Near Negotiations Near Representation Umbrella Unions IPCC CVF WMO NGOs International Climate Regime Climate International mate regime, and the climate diplomacy which drives and COP G8 dialogue presidency presidency OECD term (for example, large scale mitigation finance). mitigation scale large example, (for term profit and private sector initiatives. sector private profit and - mate mate action initiated by Copenhagen (beginning with the “fast - GCF G20 of innovation has resulted in case of a “thousand flowers blooming” in UNIDO

Protocol Montreal C40 ICAO/IMO IRENA UNEP/UNDP/ Clean Air Clean Coalition Implementation CDM R20 Board GGGi GEF MDBs Funders Ministerial Bilateral CleanEnergy

many areas. The climate regime is fragmented but there is still a strong need for critical gaps to to critical gaps for need a strong is still there but fragmented is regime The climate areas. many be filled (for example, on climate risk assessment) while other areas which could ben medium the in consolidation The character of the cli international supports it, is rightly complex rather the as However, integration. expanding to have a the much current period larger focus on implementation and have been created over the past 5 years in the run Summit. Along with the fast growth of the low carbon economy, the rapid rise in international funding for international cli start” finance on $30bn but aiming to mobilise $100bn non of public, multiplication per annum by 2020) has fuelled a The majority of implementing organisations and

Regime Climate the International of Structure The Figure 3: Understanding Climate Diplomacy 33

site - inside inside s only

vereign – RC) will - oping oping very hoc on dgement on - ports, and the

[online] Available at: at: Available [online]

. Ad hoc partial arrangement i 41 proliferation as core to ne and ad - between the so . This

non 40

wing upon available scientific including routi

. The International Atomic Energy Agency and and the climate regime is devel

most most pressing structural challenges a robust regime for the transparency and

Some Some of the PBC) which brings together evidence and ju -

laid out below. laid going climate risk impact assessment - are

t. Climate change requires effective monitoring and accountability

–

ignatories understanding the importance of t challenge to how diplomacy balances the many notions of fairness of s

evelopment Round. In addition, in the Montreal Protocol, historical responsibility IAEA Safeguards Overview: Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements and Additional Protocols Additional and Agreements Safeguards Overview: Comprehensive Safeguards IAEA

. There will be various structural challenges as the landscape evolves into a more Structural Structural challenges for climate diplomacy in shaping the climate IPCC provides periodic assessments of the international state regimes of have established peer special reviewed institutions knowledge. Peace such Building Other asCommission (UN the United Nations the effectiveness of peace building activities in specific countries within and proposesthe strategic responsesUN to any shortfallregime in current approaches. No single institution has yet been formally tasked with dra expertise and analysis of comprehensive current and mitigation on commitments assessments are provided by in UNEP and others in order their “emissions gap” re to provide a inspections, visits, and ongoing monitoringobliged to provide information about and their nuclear fuel cycle evaluation. In possible due to addition, states are their national interes but the threshold states are willing to agree upon is still highly contested. developed countries. Climate diplomacy will need to find rights the of appropriate the balance state and accountability the of emissions and support actions necessity for (IAEA), for instance, has a mandate to verify, pose a significan the relative emission reduction efforts. Similar efforts inside the WTO, in the context of operationalising Special and Differential Treatment (SDT) are pending Doha D given the stalled is reflected in developing countries beginning their phase out of CFCs 10 years later than the right balance between the role of the such UNFCCCas the Montreal Protocol, the and IMO, WIPO and the WTO. its relationship to agreements The articulation of historical responsibility, the equity principle and the interpretation of Common But Differentiated Responsibility and Respective Capabilities (CBDR The challenge to ensure that the UNFCCC remains a centralwhilst hubnot overwhelmingof the its capacity,climate remitregime and expertise. For example, understanding

IAEA [2013] IAEA ibid Risk of Degrees

40 http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Factsheets/English/sg_overview.html 41 > > > and outside the UNFCCC the UNFCCC outside and UNFCCC the Inside > regime regime Climate Diplomacy is still a relatively new practice quickly complex and comprehensive regime. 2.4 Understanding Climate Diplomacy 34

d d regime building 2015, 2015, Millennium - looking climate diplomacy. climate looking titutions begin to participate in - global and regional cooperation stories so that action in the real

MDG agenda and the 2015 climate -

potentially increasing) the political space

ctors and ensure developing countries are South tensions remain. Integrating climate - em elsewhere. Climate diplomacy needs to and failure

- competition of companies and collaboration of States on border taxes.

culties of trying to reconcile climate change, trade and state actors strengthen their ability to analyse problems and -

solutions. solutions. But it is even more important that they invest in the capacity and skills to ditions for the 2015 climate agreement. But it will also be key to avoid 2015 greement have evolved in silos. The debate is conducted largely from New York, where crunches will be essential to maintaining (and available. actively communicate these success economy helps shape political ambition at the national and international level. Resource volatility and scarcitythrough increasing protectionist could policies. undermineHowever, it could also collaborationenhance by internationalincreasing a focus on resource efficient investment. Managing resource and actors such as sovereign wealth funds will be challenging. The ability of the climate regime to shape the ecosystem of financial a getting the highest value for money will be challenging.better mechanisms There for is learning also the a lessonsneed ofto earlybuild investmentresilient in low development carbon, climate and replicating th becoming a year in which attention, or game the the processes against each other. MDGs and climate unhelpfully compete for As political the low carbon economydeveloping low matures carbon, resilient and plans, new managing the ins network of financial institutions under construction. The discussions on a the post more traditional interpretations of North change into the redefinition con of the development model could facilitate the right commercial issues. Rising tensions over trends. trade These in tensions need low to carbon be managed products to ensure efforts confirm or become they a sterile debate do these not undermine climate The development of a new Development development Goal model (MDG) through and the the post Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s) debate is Striking the right balance between will be critical to ensuring the flourishing of a global services. market for low carbon goods The and experience of Europe placing aviation illustrates inside the the emissions diffi trading system in

examples which could help deliver better and more more forward and better deliver help could which examples critical that countries and non suggest forge sustainable agreement on this wide range of complex issues. Without strong diplomatic capacity countries will be unlikely to toagree the an ambitious commitments activities needed to keep climate risk below 2°C. The next section outlines some best practice it above, is described face the challenges of with the To toolspast. the future shape We cannot > > > > regime: climate Broader international Understanding Climate Diplomacy 35 - y

ntal ntal s inside a a inside s iplomac interests, d capacity capacity exists

on the limate limate

42 national national priorities into

aming aming and driving debates government) government) systems. The . -

resources resources necessary to deliver

integrat and and fr

, . The practice of ly effective and and how they your perceive own and actions

gather gather and analyse intelligence The command of basic tools of diplomacy and the

how climate change influences and impacts core develop develop and action a clear national position based on

strategic confidence

sufficiently sufficiently embedded climate change into the decision practioners practioners question whether the diplomatic yet yet

the the capability to

: seem straightforward on the surface, delivering them requires

the capability to

. alliances alliances and

the the capability to

understanding understanding ing create create a clear influencing strategy and to implement it through multiple to be able to deliver effective climate diplomacy climate effective deliver to able be to to

ntracted. ntracted. Many . required required to deliver diplomacy; effective that is, climate the practices, skills and

, build untries untries have not expanding expanding the realm of the politically possible objective is the art of influence. It attempts to forge agreement but also to move political

ess if it is to be successful in building an effective climate regime, and described the Capacity Capacity to Influence: political and diplomatic channels. capability venues messaging. public and private through national interests Know the other: constraints and capacities of other actors positions Know Know yourself: an Framework for Strengthening the Practice of Climate Diplomacy Climate of Practice the Strengthening for Framework

apabilities c 3. 2. 1. In this paper “intelligence” is used in its traditional technical sense to refer to any information which underpins analysi underpins which information any to refer to sense technical traditional in usedits is “intelligence” paper In this iplomacy iplomacy

42 government and diplomatic privileged sources, public open from collected information covers this framework; support decision discretely. obtained information and communications Since 2009, the diplomatic capacity and activity dedicated to climate change has stagnated and and stagnated has change to climate dedicated activity capacity and the diplomatic 2009,Since in some cases co to deliver an effective international climate regime. For many diplomatic countries, enhancing capacity still concentrates on building technical knowledge on climate and environme Although these capabilities significant institutional changes to government (and many majority of non co machinery making boundaries, capabilities core three requires methods methods that can be to used and develop deliver these objectives, as well as in the investment scale and quality of the available political, human and financial objectives. diplomatic defined on the D must addr time. over regime climate the and diplomacy climate of evolution the capacities on a Thisfocus requires of diplomacy. “how” climate on the focuses This section and A 3.1 Section 1 and 2 above has laid out a framework for understanding the “why?” and “what?” of to diplomacy climate that and climate We the identify outcomes challenges sought diplomacy. Diplomacy Climate Rethinking 3: Chapter Understanding Climate Diplomacy 36 rkable rkable emphasises what emphasises - climate climate diplomats - suited suited to the changing to to invest strategically in control. control. This is not about -

- day day practice of shaping debates, making making structures will require - -

going going in many countries but progress

As As presents many potential advantages in building building and arms ajor diplomatic service in the context of a whole of of whole of a context in the service diplomatic ajor - offs will become even more essential in order for in order for more essential become even offs will peer peer engagement with non - - to -

ructures ructures to deliver climate diplomacy vary around the

ide ide most MFAs are increasingly ill

rk on political, security and on and trade rk political, issues and security de /dmr/qddr/ onal interest trade onal interest reaching attempt at reforming a m a reforming at attempt reaching - . As the example of the UK shows in Box 2, even with top level political climate issues MoEs climate can and be the overall impact deemphasised lower Institutional Institutional st

43 polar polar world. This is well recognised in foreign policy circles and extends - cutter cutter solutions, but building deeper skills on how to deliver wo - w to date http://www.state.gov/s ding ding others and building alliances to influence, developing diplomatic ) would result from more peer The difficulty of “climate mainstreaming” “climate of difficulty The

countries countries shift from setting climate targets to implementing and changing their economic

Probably the most public and far and public most the Probably

43 Review Development and Diplomacy Quadrennial first US Government’s the was influence projecting to approach government 2010 in (QDDR) The institutional structures ins dynamics of a multi beyond climate change issues. Reform processes are on has been slo MFA in order to takean “new” it can support timethe culture inside prioritisea long change to recharacterised recharacterised climate change as leadership to prioritise an economic and security than if priority. they lead. Integration of climate diplomacy issues into foreign Without policy must go hand in strong be successful. to is if it reforms with institutional hand Although Although integration of climate diplomacy into MF terms of access to representation in country capitals and integration into economic, security and political dialogues, in practice it wo ofculture MFAs prioritises can also weaken climate diplomacy. The are traditional seen as “softer” global issues. Environment Ministries have not successfully Embedding Embedding climate change across institutional reform. government decision world, ranging from countries where climate diplomacy is the sole responsibility of the MoEs process. of the parts all controls MFA the where those to 3.2 As nati structures, reconciling areas. policy other itself with align and permeate to climate more more impact with limited capacity. The examples and recommendations below can help create to a better toolkit for practitioners to draw upon impact. and their capacity increase and diplomacy climate in an effort ambiguity. ambiguity. For many climate specialists a stronger sense of agency (and menu of diplomatic options working to build regimes on trade, finance, peace transferring cookie results. Beyond building skills there are a range of other interventions that can help deliver (i.e. shaping the national interest debate). interest the national (i.e. shaping Countries also need to build vital “craft” skills for the day understan communications and media skills and the ability to find compromise and/or constructive policy and law. This is an important first step, but insufficient given the barriers to agreement Understanding Climate Diplomacy 37 - al al

is grew

[online] [online] Available at: approach approach reduces is challenge is the

- – ple ple maximising the up up to major climate -

ess was carried out by the ommittee ence, an Energy and Climate Climate and an Energy ence, governmental governmental environment government coordination has coordination government - - eign eign Office ran a strong set of a year before the general election

i/c39201.htm issues issues (for exam - –

– y, trade and security, climate diplomacy n n Cook, two of the following three Labour

urgent urgent - up up to the Copenhagen Conference as part of a reign reign policy portfolios. This silo - te change action in the Foreign Office there are still but but non

– who who convened a group of non

– level, and jointly with the Ministry of the Def Ministry with jointly and level, - raising raising the priority of environmental issues inside UK foreign policy was started

generally generally dealt with in second or third tier processes. Thus with whilst ‘first tier’ core climate national interests such as change econom interacts For example, countries often struggle to place climate change issues high on the agendas of their Heads and ofmajor except Government meetings bilateral in the run negotiations. This means important value of low carbon trade or the impact of climate cooperation on energy security) are challenges challenges to climate maintaining change as a priority, and cross years. few past the in weakened Source: John Ashton http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmenergy/c392 evidence to UK Parliament’s Energy and Climate Change C This was progress enabled by the fact that after Robi Foreign Secretaries (Margaret Beckett and David Miliband) had previously been Environment mainstreaming. environmental for leadership of continuity strong giving Ministers, Despite this significant history of clima Change at ambassadorial Change Security Envoy was appointed from 2009. Climate Gleneagles change was in prioritised at 2005 the and UK G8 championed institutions, at in including a the wide UN range “campaigns” Security on of climate Council. change international in The relationships the run Change. Climate and Energy of Department the by For and steered strategy government of whole Prime Minister’s Office in advance of G8 meetings. of G8 advance in Office Minister’s Prime climate Department covering Policy In created a Environment 1999 Office the Foreign separate change, sustainable development, biodiversity and EU environmental policy. In time th to encompass a global network of environmental attaches funding. Successive supported Foreign Secretaries by from 2006 significant also appointed a project Special Envoy on Climate by Robin Cook (then Shadow Foreign Secretary) in 1996 that brought him into office experts to advise him on international policy. This and policies priority access propose to was given and privileged Secretary while he was Foreign group was maintained for several years actions in advance of major international meetings. A similar proc Office UK Foreign the into Issues Environmental Integrating of Road Long The 2: Box The process of need need to reform ofhow Ministries Foreign Affairs are organised: i.e., to the perpetuate artificial separation of issues (economy, security, energy etc) which hinders the integration cutting ofissues such as climate change into fo cross the ability of climate diplomacy to respond to changes, including shifting power. patterns of global issues such as climate change into the core of diplomacy. At the core of th Understanding Climate Diplomacy 38

te on te on

means means that

– nsformation nsformation required generational generational priorities -

the framing of domestic uired uired to shift economies to

are are unheard or not active in the political

– e e generally slow pace of modernisation in construction construction and infrastructure sector, food – especially especially in “emerging powers”

– egime will provide tangible national benefits. benefits. national tangible provide will egime pings pings which can impede opportunities for creating tourism tourism industry

e profound choices beyond the electoral cycle that will shift into political decision making require require difficult decisions to be made on cross : building national conditions for climate ambition ambition climate for conditions national building : cities cities and

. The art of politics is to manage these inevitable tensions. International At At present, there is minimal differentiation in yourself mises

Debates on the impacts of climate change and benefits of action of benefits and change climate of impacts the on Debates

Know Debates on the impacts of climate change and benefits of action Aligning climate change to broader national interests Embedding climate change

sector, sector, marine sector, debate on mitigation or international positioning. In the absence of these groups of “climate takers” (i.e. those which sectors are most impacted by climate the deba change), national constituencies constituencies and their role in relation to climate change. Instead more generic categories of business, cities and people living in poverty are utilised, and do not enable the opportunity for distinctions between sectors and grou dynamic and influential alliances. Outside of the most vulnerable countries, the sectors and industries most impacted by climate change 3.3.1 Climate diplomacy will be stronger if powerful domestic constituencies support climate reduction. risk > > > and and debate of national interests, and a clear understanding of how limiting climate risks and r climate international an effective securing areas: in three action involves debates with national Engaging and and compro cooperation will be required in order to help countries. build political support for bold action inside UNFCCC negotiations on their own are not capable of delivering the tra to change. The solve climate starting point for is good diplomacy climate the domestic context Diplomacy Diplomacy begins at home. Climate change is a political problem and finding a require solution will decision makers to mak how energy is produced and consumed, and how natural resources, including ecosystems, are managed. These shifts climate climate change is particularly impacted by th ministries. foreign 3.3 interconnected issues is at the core of the diplomacy challenge. challenge. the diplomacy of core the at is issues interconnected Institutional inertia is problematic given the limited time wide the engaging and regime climate effective an Building change. climate dangerous avoid req range of countries that need to be involved is often marginalised. How fast these institutions can adapt and manage complex and Understanding Climate Diplomacy 39

- - Report -

Change. Change. 05092012 - Progress prices speaking speaking out for Marshall Islands, - -

April 2013 April

nd engaged engaged on climate

extreme - eved eved by framing debates constituencies constituencies around the as well as

; and undertaking actions to weather - 44

A mature national conversation . 45 something something that cannot be achieved

extreme - – In In the Republic of the trajectory This This can be achi impacted business) and shows how climate http://www.unilever.com/images/USLP

How How impacts can animate climate action in

n n the coming years eam/10546/241131/1/ib [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

[online] Available at: at: Available [online]

their supply chains to climate change,

Assistance Tony de Brum’s speech to CDKN Climate Diplomacy workshop, London 22 London workshop, Diplomacy Climate CDKN to speech de Brum’s Tony Assistance - resilience resilience of Sustainable living plan 2012 living Sustainable

in - Extreme Weather, Extreme Prices Extreme Weather, Extreme 352007.pdf -

er Republic Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI)

Copenhagen, Copenhagen, many small island developing states acknowledged the need to take action

FI_tcm13 a result of the consultations, government policy was reoriented to put climate -

Unilever [2012] Unilever [2012] Oxfam

he he various impacted constituencies were convened by the Foreign Minister, including In In many vulnerable developing countries, action is well underway. Box 3 illustrates how the

44 2012 45 http://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/oxfam/bitstr en.pdf must be grounded in analysis of things that matter to citizens, such as current climate impacts on food prices and how this will grow i that involves new actors (including citizens and risks impact everyday life could expand the political space to increase ambition. Box 4 In In all cases, but especially in major emitting countries, the debate on climate linked to risk the everyday lives ofhas citizens to to impact change be by theoretical or technocratic arguments alone. around the question: “what is the acceptable level of climate risk we are willing to take?” This involving involving business and civil society demonstrates the significance of the debate on climate risk decisions. government drive can how and it Minist Source: As considerations at its heart, underpinned by strong political commitment at the highest levels on Climate Committee of a National establishment the lead to This of government. The ability to unify governmental actors from central and decentralised agencies as well as After unilaterally after a series of extreme weather events. t Ministers, Heads of relevant government agencies, Roadmap’. Change community a ‘Climate of development the to contribute leaders and civil society to impacts impacts of climate change to objectives. provide a constituency of change for their global climate Box 3: leadership drive and countries vulnerable increase increase the risk. climate reduce to more action vulnerable small island developing states are mobilising brader create create the majority of greenhouse gas emissions); who benefit economically from fossil fuel extraction and use. The only affected companies which have policy regularly have been in the insurance sector. However, this model with business current is their not compatible is understanding companies as Unilever such beginning to change with major significant temperature rises under a high emissions climate mitigation tends to be dominated by “climate makers” (i.e. those industries which Understanding Climate Diplomacy 40 - friendly friendly - ally

events events just in 2012 is

http://environment.yale.edu/climate

ects ects as core of part the American

om om the evolution of the loss and damage [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

g g recent extreme weather events to climate made disasters in 2012 reports USD 77 billion in insured losses losses insured in billion 77 USD 2012 reports in disasters made http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi.html - 2013.pdf - April -

Opinion - [online] Available at: at: Available [online] both human and economic terms has moved the debate

This This avoids the narrative of despair that can so often follow on Public - [online] Available at: at: Available [online] on on climate risk has evolved in the US, culminating in political shifts Weather -

ting Perception of Climate Vulnerability in the US the in Vulnerability Climate of Perception ting shifts in climate. There has also been a tendency to see the US’s large geographic geographic large US’s the see to tendency a been also has There in climate. shifts Climate vulnerability index vulnerability Climate

Swiss Re's sigma on natural catastrophes and man and catastrophes natural on sigma Re's Swiss lobby lobby in limiting action; rather than on the US’s interest in reducing its own climate

Extreme weather and climate change in the American mind American the in change climate and weather Extreme

The scale of the losses in beyond its focus on the poorest, to engage and mobilise the more politically influential Issues of national importance such as loss and damage can spur debate and action at the international level, and vice versa.

> debate in UNFCCC negotiations: UNFCCC debate in > and economic losses of USD 186 billion USD losses of economic and http://www.swissre.com/media/news_releases/nr_20130327_sigma_natcat_2012.html [2013] Yale communication/files/Extreme In the UNFCCC several observations can be drawn fr represented represented over half of global insured losses for weather events in 2012. US public attitudes are now shifting, with a majority of people linkin the future. into continue to them expecting and change Sources: [2011] Maplecroft [2013] Re Swiss risks. Domestic attitudes have begun to shift due to the extreme weather events that have hit the US in the past few years. The direct economic impact of these extreme estimated by Swiss Re at over $263 billion in losses, or around 1.8% of US GDP. The US natural natural disasters as an of“act God” toand their resilience eff national identity. Other countries’ analysis of US positions in climate change negotiations therefore tended to focus on the US as a major polluter, the impact of domestic political tensions, and the role of fossil fuels countries, countries, has been seen as having low vulnerability due to the large level of national capacity to to respond area as providing a hedge against climate impacts, because unlike smaller counties, economic activities could theoretically move inside national areas. boundaries The to more impact climatic of vulnerability these are reinforced by “analytical” a well estimates documented attitude among on the US public public which sees perceptions of US national that is focused on vulnerability to one that is focused on resilience and activism. and on resilience focused that is one to vulnerability on that is focused Shif The 4: Box In most analyses of global vulnerability to climate change, the US, along with most developed which were crystallised by the impact of Superstorm Sandy. Sandy. ofSuperstorm the impact by crystallised were which Climate risk is an effective framing to spur on greater ambition when combined with a strong focus on available solutions. from a sole focus on climate impacts. There is a need to change the conversation from one outlines how the debate Understanding Climate Diplomacy 41

49 - -

as been low - .pdf cussion of 992x - off” off” from climate -

artly artly due to deliberate

on_Costs.pdf http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c705045e censor censor discussion on the national - gh gh the creation of a global renewable

influential alliances and leverage political

which aimswhich to global highlight progress and , to argue for the benefits of the low carbon . This data has been used by a range of 50 48 http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp98 [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

. 10.pdf -

47 2009 - ailable at: at: ailable [online] Available at: Available [online]

services - issues at both the national and international level. and -

f the low carbon economy on economic growth. growth. economic on economy carbon the low f goods analysis of analysis that the LCEGS showed sector with 4% was growth it the fastest -

UK Green technology faltering, says EEF says faltering, technology UK Green Is this climate porn? climate Is this https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/31780/11 00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2LKbaYEZJ - environmental . However, the response to this is not to self b377 - - 46 and he he Engineering Employers Federation (EEF) - 11e2 will to address these The debate on equity from fairness between countriesfairness within countries. has broadened to also include ‘climate takers’ industries and sectors to build - ould ould generate fatalism and despair in the public causing them to “switch

CBI [2012] The Colour of Growth [online] Av [online] Growth of Colour The [2012] CBI [2013] Times Financial Tyndall Centre [2006] Centre Tyndall at: Available [online] Costs Generation Power Renewable [2012] IRENA 2009/2010 Report Services and Goods Environmental [2011] Carbon Low Skills and Innovation Business for UK Department

carbon 49 http://www.cbi.org.uk/media/1552876/energy_climatechangerpt_web.pdf 50 79eb 46 47 http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/Renewable_Power_Generati 48 at: Available [online] and and t economy and for stronger direction from the markets. in export advantages gain and invest government, which will allow companies to A critical basis for this mobilisation is for government to collect dedicated data on the extent of the extent on data dedicated to collect government is for mobilisation this for basis A critical the domestic Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Services (LCGES) sector. For example, in the UK the latest growing section of the UK economy mainstream business groups in in the UK, including the 2011 Confederation of British Industry (CBI) economy economy and shifts in political and economic narratives. There are a processes, such as the Green Growth Forum (3GF), range of international with national It is also engage critical to models. growth development green visibility for create champions such as sector alliances, industry confederations and Trade Unions to demonstrate o impact the positive Despite Despite the rapid expansion of the global renewables sector, in many countries this h insufficient to demonstrate how the shift to a low carbon economy contributes to economic growth. Many mainstream opinion shapers, policy makers and business voices still argue that a low carbon economy is not a lobbying credible from high growth carbon interests, strategy. and This partly due is to the p lag between changes in the real and and international collaboration are essential to deliver climate stability and the benefits that cooperation has already delivered; for example, throu and clean energy market in which prices for technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines decreased rapidly have LED lights and There are legitimate concerns in many countries that a w focus on climate impacts and risks change consequences of unmanaged climate change, but rather to solutions which a generate sense of This agency. ensure includes a public discussion of why diplomacy a parallel dis >

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 42 is is

National National

sum game, or a ‘you go first’ - urity urity analysis in many countries it is change change alongside other core national

. Climate security has been used in high profile

51 core national interests core national oreign oreign ministers, but is unclear how much they are

s or development of new weapons platforms; all of which

into their national interest assessments. The CIA commissioned a race to secure domestic advantages through unilateral action. action. unilateral through advantages domestic secure to race a s.gov.uk/20050301192918/http://strategy.gov.uk/files/pdf/3future.pdf . However, aspects of climate change have been considered by the US 52

te the national interest debate. Serving and retired military officers have 15 years to implement. implement. to years 15 ncies as far back as 1974. as back as far ncies -

Aligning climate change to change climate Aligning

E3G [2013] Underpinning the MENA democratic transition transition democratic MENA the Underpinning E3G [2013] Future of Instability: at Risk Countries [2005] UK Government

imate from other sectors will be essential if alignment is to be successful. be is to if alignment essential will be sectors other from imate

51 52 at: Available [online] of Instability Risks http://webarchive.nationalarchive Climate Change is now regularly included confidential as a horizon core scanning trend in products, major countries’ including public and those produced by the US security age security This is perhaps notas the surprising security community has a tradition of long term producing “horizon scanning” to identify future threats and trends which may require shifts in resource allocation, potential conflict theatre 10 take can Box 5. The Evolution of National Security Debates on Climate Change Climate on Debates Security National of Evolution The 5. Box The military and security communities integrate in climate many change countries have been analysis on among abrupt the climate change first as to early public as analysis in 2005 2003; the UK government produced its first security security can penetra been effective at communicating the threats from climate change to a public. sometimes This sceptical demonstrates that identifying new messengers and new messages to cl champion proving proving harder to ensure prevention and security effective response strategies responses to these speeches by many challenges world leaders in and f practical influencing countries’ mitigation ambition conflict and positions at the UNFCCC. The US is an example of how (with and effective and advanced strategic political communications strategy climate inside inside national security debates. Box 5 briefly outlines the evolution of climate and security analysis inside the security and military communities. The results of this process have mixed. been While climate change is now well established inside sec tensions can shift climate diplomacy towards a more reciprocal arrangement, i.e. an ‘I will if even or will’ dynamic you Despite progress in the of identification climate as a significant security ‘threat multiplier’ over the last decade, there are still major challenges for governments acting upon this analys Diplomacy on climate change has often resulted approach. However, climate diplomacy in no longer resides in a purely environmental sphere, a zero but engages new constituencies. security and competitiveness security, energy volatility, price such as resource Aligning interest debates climate 3.3.2 Understanding Climate Diplomacy 43

– . -

55 come come climate - offs with offs with

y and the - that - he he 2°C goal. warns - arbon Pricing [online] [online] Pricing arbon forces ssessment ssessment of short, - sectors, this sectors, remains a

Pacific Command stated

pacific - ving a broad climate regime. regime. climate a broad ving

commander -

53 s have generally been preferred to locklear -

samuel - reports/category/61.html - R RETHINK ON EU EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME [online] Available at: at: Available [online] SCHEME TRADING EMISSIONS EU ON RETHINK R timate timate issue for all but a few http://www.envirosecurity.org/cctm/StateoftheDebate2.pdf t inclusion of foreign airlines in the EU ETS scheme ETS EU the in airlines foreign of t inclusion . This is a structural challenge for climate diplomac 54

carbon carbon industries due to climate mitigation action. Despite the border border tax measures, because of fears that these would be hard to

- litary litary is now required by Congress to incorporate climate change considerations into nge nge of other businesses are benefitting from the low carbon economy, including http://www.climatestrategies.org/research/our threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.html?s_campaign=sm_tw - top - d developing economies. This fairness principle is key to achie to key is principle This fairness economies. developing d Climate Strategies [2013] International Industry Competitiveness, Carbon Leakage, and Approaches to C to Approaches Leakage, and Carbon Competitiveness, Industry [2013] International Strategies Climate FO CALLS AAPA [2013] Airlines Pacific of Asia Association For an introduction to the climate security debate see see debate security climate the to introduction an For

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub862.pdf 54 at: Available 55 http://www.aapairlines.org/resource_centre/AAPA_PR_Issue14_RethinkingEUETS_02Aug11.pdf Addressing Addressing these tensions requires a medium and long term interests, national as well as the ability to make trade difficult clear and analytically robust seemingly competing a objectives in the trade and commercial areas. Creative solutions national 53 energy energy intensives such as steel, cement and turbines copper and which efficient supply infrastructure. raw Box materials 6 for outlines wind forces the inside Germany, tensions and how between the these disproportionate different power of level. the EU at particularly drive to ambition, diplomacy climate German of the ability energy inhibits intensive industries implement implement and could trigger broader trade retaliation. The sensitivity around such measures agains the backlash by was demonstrated of other range face a in some they because are still failing countries industries intensive Energy structural problems such as demand shifts to rapid growing emerging economies. At the same time a ra The reality is more complex. In most developed countries received energy intensive broad industries have exemptions from emissions climate trading policies, permits. including Exemptions and taxation subsidie repeatedly and proposed purchasing of lack of empirical that evidence this is a legi real political issue in all countries regime. At the heart of international climate countries with higher politics per capita greenhouse is emissions should act the faster than middle acknowledgement in that richer an http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral change The most common tensions inside national interest debates are around the perceived threats to the competitiveness of high The QDR process has of renewable use greater and capability, disaster response enhancing resulted procurement, equipment in a number of energy sources by decisions the military. on In 2013 the regional US Commander region. the to challenge security the greatest strategies, was change in that climate Asia basing, at: Available [online] worry biggest climate calls forces US of Pacific {2013] Chief Globe Boston Source: Defence Defence Concepts and Doctrines Centre. Other major impacts change of climate analysis confidential produced countries are also assumed to have The US mi its Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR). The QDR assesses US military strategy, missions capabilities and against a range of climate scenarios including impacts well beyond t Intelligence Council, European Commission, Australia’s Office of National Assessment and UK Understanding Climate Diplomacy 44

ributions ributions (in (in particular How carbon carbon How

its international

Landers %20WhosHoldingUsBack.pdf - policy policy towards the high

Greenpeace [2011] [2011] Greenpeace recently recently estimated at around g g those covering the financing

http://www.erneuerbare tech companies (Siemens, Bosch, One, One, the low carbon economy,

- s. s. [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

ons of future growth that pull the exist. - intensive intensive industries (chemicals, steel, paper, - the case of Germany of case the r competitiveness, but climate diplomacy must – ying ying to weaken EU climate policy, and Merkel’s n the absence of a strong geopolitical strategy and of n strategy the absence and a geopolitical strong i [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

ncludes ncludes large high 00144feab7de.html#ixzz2XPZd5ATz - tion b990 -

Württemberg, Württemberg, Bavaria and Saxony). Unsurprisingly they are - 11e2 -

governmental governmental channels. Germany has been a champion of the - de81 - economic power, economic -

import/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/ee_bruttobeschaeftigung_en_bf.pdf

- Merkel lobbies to shield automakers from emissions rules emissions from automakers shield to lobbies Merkel

Westphalia, Westphalia, Baden two two types of energy economies co - The other economy, however, keeps Germany highly reliant on coal. coal. on reliant highly Germany keeps however, economy, other The

. 56 Rheine

- ough ough both formal and non Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety [2012] Safety Nuclear and Conservation Nature Environment, the for Ministry Federal

Gross employment from renewable energy in Germany in 2011 [online] Available at: at: Available 2011 [online] in Germany in energy renewable from employment Gross

56 energien.de/fileadmin/ee climate diplomacy. climate Sources: [2013] Times Financial http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90476704 legilsa effective climate is preventing industry intensive http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2011/391%20 Despite Despite its geo perceived diplomacy, commercial interests de facto dominate German engagement with other countries thr low carbon economy domestically and and internationally, yet it has struggled to reconcile the interests that pull in incompatible directions. This places limits positioning on and influence how can far develop without tackling these structural barriers to effective interventions interventions in the manufacturers. European These incumbent decision industries are on carbon more interests even vocal though the fuel latter and i influential efficiency than etc). SAP Miele, new on low behalf of German car Despite Despite the political momentum inside Germany behind the Energiewende and the move to 100% renewable energy, energy intensive industry is still deeply embedded inside the political and industrial elite. These commercial interests try to carbon energy intensive bias industries. This foreign is illustrated by the exemptions Germany negotiated for its energy intensive industries as part of the EU 2020 in package 2008, the leading role that German companies such as BASF play in tr Within Within the German political system, the energy glass) are politically influential due to their links with the trade unions and their cont to employment and tax revenues in politically influential provinces or North prioritie affairs foreign Germany’s in setting also influential German industry is exempted from many energy taxes includin costs of renewable energy and commercial energy consumers cover energy all of these efficiency costs. Until these programmes. two economies are made consistent, Germany will German continue domestic to operate and directions. in incompatible country with visi contributes contributes significantly to Germany’s economic growth, industrial strategy and employment. For 2010, gross employment in the renewables industry 367,400 was Because German companies argue that industrial competitiveness requires low cost energy, also be to prepared argue the claimsrobustly ofagainst unfounded interest special groups and these debates. in businesses carbon low of voice the amplify to work Interests National Divergent Managing 6: Box In Germany can be found for any legitimate concerns ove Understanding Climate Diplomacy 45 -

DRC. rdinates rdinates twenty Year Year Plans. It is also making - - developing developing and setting

state state level. But in many - of

evious incarnations. evious ’s capacity for implementing [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

making making bodies at many levels of - ChangeInChina.pdf ion of Chinese climate policy began in the the debate of how ambitious a country will

t t was with the IPCC. as However, an agency,

making power compared to pr compared power making - The Governance of Climate Change in China in Change Climate of Governance The s [2011] Evolution of Governmental Coordination Machinery Coordination Governmental of Evolution

– 13 13 in Bali, Indonesia, the governance of climate change in China received a significant - Embedding climate change into political decision political into change climate Embedding

3.3 ter China’s approval of the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, the NCCCLSG became known as the known became NCCCLSG the 2002, in Protocol Kyoto the of approval ter China’s http://www2.lse.ac.uk/globalGovernance/publications/workingPapers/climate

be be on climate issues would take place inside the highest level political decision making body e.g. Cabinet structures, and might be sometimes driven at the head Source: London School Economie of School London Source: [ Greater ambition on climate change ministries, but also will much deeper discussions on politics, policy and withimplementation other require policy coordination inside ministries (e.g. planning, energy, environment industry). Ideally government, government, and as pressure developments followed that was increased the placed central government on measures that can local reduce emissions across governments, China. China significant is climate currently law considering institution which a would national further strengthen the whole of action. change government approach to climate (NLCCC). Headed by Premier Wen Jiabao, the role of the NLCCC, seven which different coo government agencies, is much like that decisions of its and predecessors: to to make major coordinate national decision and capacity strengthened actions on climate change. Yet it has considerably After the creation of the NLCCC signalled the importance of climate issues to the central Af National Coordination Committee on Climate Change (NCCCC). Established under the auspices N the by chaired and in be stationed to continued it 2003, in Council State of the At COP boost as the NCCCC was replaced by the National Leading Committee on Climate Change China) China) under the State Council, with overall responsibility for studying, policies related to economic and social development, including the Five responsible for the and regulation coordination of energy prices and other areas related to the development. of sustainable promotion Administration Administration (SMA), whose primary engagemen it was increasingly sidelined process. making policy in the climate MFA and (NDRC) Commission by the more powerful National Development and policy. in The is NDRC change a significant signalling to moved the NDRC, 1998, the In NCCCLSG Reform the most powerful comprehensive commission (the highest ranking administrative unit in entities entities into more substantial political convening and decision government. Major institutional reforms have taken place. Coordinat 1990 with the creation of the National (NCCCLSG), Climate Change which Coordinating was Leading Small originally Group stationed in and chaired by the State Meteorological 3. China 7: Box China’s climate and energy policymaking structures have evolved from relatively powerless

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 46

- rance, rance,

. ose views. This is much based diplomats who try who try diplomats based - hese coordination structures hese structures coordination offs underpinning a national -

offs across government. government. offs across of that process, and to be one of the - na, na, the growing recognition that energy level structure to tackle climate change as an - ministerial climate committees. These structures These structures climate committees. ministerial - weaknesses weaknesses

making. making. In Chi

- to secure a below 2°C emissions trajectory emissions 2°C a below secure to

es are starting to take climate issues outside the MoE in the diplomatic

egitimise their own positions. Country egitimise positions. their own en increased by the rise in direct diplomacy (through meetings, l to identify the fundamental trade government or inter government - ge ge only gets attention at this level in the run up to the COP, if at all. although it although does not require with agreement th

- of -

ministerial coordination. ministerial - government government departments are being asked to be engaged in the coordination of

gen gen Summit ended in direct negotiations between Heads of State and Government is “Know the other”: Assessing other countries’ climate interests climate countries’ other Assessing other”: the “Know

Copenha seen by many to exemplify the outcome its insufficient for reasons and and modify these views by explaining a different “gone perspective are often branded over as having to misunderstandings have be the other visits or side”. direct phone conversations) between national political leaders and their Many officials, by professional passing the diplomats traditional role consider of that embassies and these professional diplomats. The fact that the harder harder than it sounds in any policy field, let change. climate alone an area as complex and contentious as Policy makers often find it easier l which intentions interests and to construct convenient fictions about other countries’ 3.4 The heart of good diplomatic practice is listening. Lasting international agreement can only be found if it is based on dialogue others’ points of view and trust; this requires understanding and empathy with economic economic matter is critica interest. national core a change climate makes that agenda The Chinese example, outlined below in Box 7, illustrates one climate change such into political process decision for embedding was central to China’s prosperity and growth model led to climate change being considered at the highest political level. Establishing a high climate policy. In most cases, the MFA or MOE lead on policy coordination. In some examples, In some examples, policy coordination. on MOE or MFA lead the In most cases, policy. climate Climate Envoys are the conveners of various government departments, for example in F where the Climate Envoy convenes joint departmental structures to shape the French climate diplomacy strategy. The question is whether these efforts go far political that barriers economy hinder ambitious enough action. climate T in addressing the trade political on decisions with deal to unable are often This is starting to change. There climate change available. are Countri emerging examples of institutional coordination form of special whole on play an important role, but no single configuration can work number in of every context. A growing During During the year, climate policy is treated mostly as a environment. technical In issue order for inside climate the change to ministry become of mainstreamed into national economic and political debates, many other institutions will have to be inter through engaged on an ongoing basis countries, climate chan Understanding Climate Diplomacy 47

- ) is For For loans - more at least on at least on

damaging – . - 57 climate

- t the professional more - countries analysis requires detailed detailed requires analysis face face with other politicians

plans - -

to - maging maging loans in new energy policy draft eases/ebrd

rel CCC is that all countries are highly - journalists/press - The The EBRD plans more climate da country veil” and stop talking about countries as unitary as unitary countries about stop talking veil” and country media/for -

the tension in climate change debates. change climate in the tension

nderstanding through joint analytical projects th in both sides, but in a more interconnected world it is likely that while http://bankwatch.org/news

d in in formal emerge Country positions from negotiations). complex and interactions -

– policy - tions tions between different actors and groups. Unsurprisingly, this means that most Better systems for understanding the national interest Pooling and testing intelligence analysis with other countries and actors Building mutual u energy the other hand, many political leaders prefer to engage face - Central Central Eastern European (CEE) Bankwatch (2013)

57 [online] Available at: new

> > > articulate articulate about the “special circumstances” that restrain their ability to lack This of on others. the constraints about dismissive highly act are generally but change, climate ambitiously on of much underlies empathy understanding: for a better basis building to steps several There are Only detailed analysis can show whether these inconsistencies are a result of orintent, caused process. Such making political decision the inside failures by systemic knowledge of country circumstances and debates, and cannot be picked up from mainstream media reports or by drawing institutes. on A generalist continual irony “country of experts” diplomacy in at national the UNF foreign policy negotia countries have major inconsistencies in example, the EU has outlawed but domestic coal subsidies, its (the development bank EBRD their national positions on candidate EU in plants power to coal build loans concessional providing climate change. interests and constraints. and interests This requires a more rigorous and explicit process of analysing other countries and actors. At “ the to lift need is this the of the heart actors with one ofvoice and understanding their national interest (as they appear the surface There is some tru “direct diplomacy” between senior leaders and domestic officials will continue to rise it not will totally replace the role of professional important diplomats. that However, this national makes policy it even makers have a better understanding of other countries’ as they feel it allows them to better understand underlying motivations, and get a feel for the personalities behind decisions. Many negotiators national and diplomats involved in policy the climate process makers have become entrenched feel in their positions, and only the direct tha intervention of politicians is capable breaking the stalemate and outcome. an ambitious delivering On Understanding Climate Diplomacy 48

- - a -

– makers makers -

e are still concerns still concerns e are traditional traditional security - makers makers to politica

- http://www.archive2.official

assess the risks of instability and genocide. and instability of risks the assess r r mapping and analysing other countries s s situations, thus judgements are necessary to . Over the past two decades there have been 58 Crisis and Conflict Prevention Conflict and Crisis

egular egular comparable and consistent estimates of risk across all ry’s ry’s “intent to decarbonise”, which goes beyond haphazard nagement nagement systems are often much less well developed than those

Accurate Accurate intelligence on interests, motives, perceptions and internal

n cause of major intelligence failures. failures. major intelligence of cause n

resourced resourced intelligence systems - omacy. omacy. in in order to understand their positions, the influence of domestic decision

-- Better systems for understanding the national interest national the understanding for systems Better

kit” kit” - most most well Butler Report [2004] Review of Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction [online] Available at: at: Available [online] Destruction Mass of Weapons on Intelligence of [2004] Review Report Butler

aim has been to provide r 58 documents.co.uk/document/deps/hc/hc898/898.pdf Rwandan Rwandan Genocide in 1994 resulted in a to tools better build to organisations governmental wave of investments by governments and non New systems have been put in place to supplement the traditional approach of depending on narrative reports from national embassies to report signs of rising tensions in countries. The governmental systems. governmental on Systems Intelligence of Evolution 8: Box The failure of the international community to predict and prevent the Balkan Wars and the major efforts to improve systematic country analysis on a ther 8). Box Though (see range genocide prevention and conflict areas, particularly of non about the gap between “early understanding warning and and early action” available in expertise these areas has the quality improved of in both government and non Despite Despite its centrality to their “core most business” MFAs still rely on internal narrative political reporting, and have very few systems for checking, challenging or data. MFA consistently knowledge synthesising ma used in other areas of governmental intelligence analysis, often due to a lack of human and IT resources. However, the potential failures in groupthink and intelligence are present in even Intelligence Intelligence analysis deals with highly ambiguou complete the picture. Having a robust political analysis framework through those which judgements is to important to make avoid misinterpretation. Failures of analysis, not failures of mai the are collection, cooperation cooperation by identifying key allies. intelligence analysis challenges is to collect more information, The even though analysts in reaction many of cases already have more information than they can digest. many It is the analysis framework which policy critical. is most intelligence and news headlines, is critical to interpreting a country’s national interest. national a country’s interpreting to is critical headlines, news and intelligence Developing comparable and systematic frameworks for assessing intelligence is essential for effective dipl political dynamics will inform an effective political strategy and strengthen international Understanding Understanding national interest is critical to increase ambition. exerting This requires strategic a framework fo influence on a country “tool to and how supportive they are of a policy. ambitious climate Constructing systematic framework for decoding each count 3.4.1. Understanding Climate Diplomacy 49 - ions ions time time -

and 2013 and

governmental governmental analysing the - change

- – hus hus improving the climate ng ng systems, real -

k] of -

governmental organisat governmental understanding a country’s

– dimensions - .[insert web lin web .[insert cleared external challenge experts to and cleared external - http://www.visionofhumanity.org/#/page/indexes/global

projects/international http://ffp.statesindex.org/ - . 59

http://www.controlrisks.com/RiskMap/Pages/RiskMap.aspx International Dimensions of Climate Change of Climate Dimensions International

[online] Available at: at: Available [online]

offs and synergies between the following areas is critical: is areas following the between synergies offs and securing competitive advantage -

work/projects/published ground monitoring systems of tensions. of systems monitoring ground - e] Available at: at: e] Available – the

- lopment lopment and therefore are failing to translate into negotiating positions

Failed States Index States Failed conflict conflict in the African Union, Economic Community of West African States ibution of the high carbon economy to the economy

on International threats and opportunities of climate change on the UK the on change climate of opportunities and threats International on

ssing domestic vulnerability to climate change and identifying the impacts climate

imate change on the national interest index - impacts The contr government revenues, fossil fuel exports, employment investments. and growth from high carbon The nature of the innovation and technologysignificant capability, they which are sectors to lead and industrial how strategy and how capable economy. it is to grasp opportunities in the Understanding the breadth and lowdepth of public awareness of climate carbon change and climate cl The contribution of the low carbon industry and manufacturing to growth, revenues andgovernment employment. Asse change can have on national prosperity as well as grasping the level of preparedness and maturity of the risk management debate. This should include the global impacts of

For example, 2011 UK Foresight Report on the the on Report Foresight 2011 UK example, For

59 http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our Report PWC > > > > that call for more ambition. When analysing national trade understanding change, political economy aspects of climate > Vision Vision of Humanity [2013] Global Peace Index peace [online] Available at: [onlin Maps [2013] Risk Risks Control In many countries low carbon actions are carried out in isolation from the political discussion on growth and deve Governments are also making of making greater Governments are also use security test internal government analysis on instability risks in many countries, of assessments. robustness and quality t Source: [2013] Peace for Fund such such as the “Failed States Index” and the private “World sector Peace organisations Index” providing and risk assessment by services a (for large example, number Control There Risks). of has been significant innovation in the use of automated monitori on and media analysis analytical analytical units and collection systems being instability established and to analyse and monitor risks (ECOWAS), of the Central Intelligence Commission. Agency (CIA), UK Cabinet Office and the by non undertaken are analyses comprehensive of regular A range European countries with significant risks. This impetus resulted in dedicated cross Understanding Climate Diplomacy 50

siness siness as usual

makers makers given their - r growth and compatible Eds etc) - the political economy of climate ry, ry, as well as the maturity and agriculture, construction, insurance)

– serving serving arguments that, often regardless of the - who might develop their own subjective versions of the

– Media (traditional and new media), Civil society (Academics,

–

tuencies tuencies and sectors outweigh and dominate others in the political economy economy is vital in order to identify fundamental tensions among -

Executive, Legislative, Local government and Civil service

– High carbon incumbents, low carbon alliances and ‘climate takers’ (sectors

enda. – ator and MFA version of the national interest is consistent with that held by interest interest is interpreted through self economy economy opportunities and interventions that are good fo -

Foreign affairs representatives national interest in international fora. negoti It is important to track domestic constituencies. the extent to which Business who will be most impacted by climate change Public opinion shapers Charities etc), Trade Unions and the public discourse (Polls, Op Governments carbon ag carbon The significance of energy security to the economy, and its alignment to a low or high

Political Political system mapping clarifies understanding of whether the position that is taken in the negotiations reflects the sustained interests of flexibility the of these count debates, which indicates potential flexibility in positions and engagement. areas for high impact > > > Ideally, the political mapping will Ideally, of mapping the identify role the political the following and actors also their relative power: > delayed) and construct narratives of national interest that seek to lock growth. in bu Identifying these influential economic players, influence and and analysing agency the in degree derailing of or deprioritising their political system the is climate a core agenda element of inside the any strategy national to level. national at the change map Clearly, some key consti system. Often, high carbon vested interests dominate access to decision power, capacity and incumbency within the political system. national These actors shape how the reality on the ground, sustain myths (such as that climate action is too expensive or can be the real with increasing the ambition of their country climate interests actions. needs However, to be this understood objective in analysis the making. national decision context of of the political forces that shape Understanding Understanding the real sectors and objectives. Defining an objective vision of the national interest can help identify > Understanding Climate Diplomacy 51 , - ds ds of becoming becoming ordinating ordinating

- often leads date date intelligence, a lack - to -

with with more capacity

For example, many of the country

processes processes (for moving example, issues gement. gement. Given the growing complexity countries

face meetings. face - significant significant trust between the different actors

to intuitively from the point of view of traditional of traditional view of the point from intuitively - -

face - e.g. e.g. the role CDKN plays in the climate negotiations

in in climate diplomacy across most countries Island Island States (AOSIS), Least Developed Countries (LDCs), The and costly costly and

o voice. Counter o –

hile hile understandable, this risks ctives. ctives.

their tactics inside the negotiations. Collaboration is even broader inside non Pooling Intelligence and Capacity and Intelligence Pooling

trust intelligence sharing networks at global and regional level between hundre Minded Minded Group of Developing Countries (LMDC) , the Cartagena Dialogue and the EU (see - - ven if their interests are not completely aligned, to ensure the continued effectiveness and

e whole. a as regime the climate of legitimacy outside the UNFCCC). W the MEF)(e.g. attendance with restricted fora in other problems to aiming and solve frustrated n have countries where smaller diplomacy, it is in the interest of larger groups countries of smaller to and support poorer countries effective capacity building in for smaller countries to actively engage in shaping and driving its evolution and achieving their obje national interest Deepening collaboration will be critical to ensuring that the climate regime is both effective and legitimate. A lack of capacity countries to resist significant changes and block parallel which usually requires regular regular requires usually which Some groupings such as AOSIS and the EU have managed to go capacity to for the negotiation, analysis next and stage diplomatic and enga pool and breadth of the regime, climate the ability to better achieve capacity pooling will be critical organisations. Though these networks are often successful in sharing data and up of a common framework for political analysis weakens their impact on diplomatic efforts. The effectiveness of these networks also depends on Like Box 10) all pool their insights and information at different levels of granularity in order to help shape governmental actors with organisations such as Climate Action Network (CAN) co high Many countries pool intelligence from a variety of sources. groupings within the UNFCCC negotiations pool and share intelligence at a technical level on policy and political developments. This is essential practice for countries which have limited capacity. The Alliance of Small 3.4.2 Understanding Climate Diplomacy 52 -

oned oned

o looking at

orks towards a of gathering and [online] Available at: at: Available [online]

al interest debates. al interest are increasingly prominent prominent are increasingly ses ses the EU Member State and interestingly interestingly from a climate diplomacy point

lomacy Network [online] Available at: at: Available [online] Network lomacy

IV/Documents/FactSheets/IntRegCoop_drr.pdf - . Perhaps more 60

ese ese processes can build far deeper understanding of the other’s views,

mo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/GPDRR Joint Analysis

European External Action Service [2013] EU Green Dip Green [2013] EU Service Action External European .3 WMO [2013] [2013] WMO The Network The has Network an important role the in and consistency increasing effectiveness coherence, Building on International and Regional Cooperation in Meteorology for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Reduction Risk for Disaster Meteorology in Cooperation Regional and International on Building Commission’s Commission’s extensive diplomatic networks to provide an effective means exchanging information, in addition to supporting the development Delegations. Commission and Embassies EU between countries in third of networks diplomacy local informal green Source: http://eeas.europa.eu/environment/gdn/docs/gdn_more_en.pdf in in international affairs. Environment The and Foreign Affairs network from all EU brings countries a year. times several action joint and priorities to together discuss environmental diplomacy representatives of Ministries of of European actions in the field of environment. The network u The Green Diplomacy Network (GDN) is a flexible and innovative practices. relations external into tool policies environment EU of the integration better that w The GDN was formally established policy of environmental European aspects recognition that external in 2002, after several years of informal meetings, in Box 10: The EU Green Diplomacy Network Diplomacy Green EU The 10: Box

60 http://www.w measures. measures. Enhancing the collaboration between developed and developing countries could nation in shaping breakthroughs and options innovative some provide between between countries which are not natural allies in the climate negotiations. By undertaking this type of joint analysis th sharpen the definition of zones of agreement and disagreement and discover potential areas for solutions. commissi In this context itto would creative be analysis see joint interesting trade and verification and as monitoring such of tension areas perennial in China by the and US Joint Joint studies can provide good ways to develop a shared areas on more collaboration technical track record there of is a strong issues, and international understanding around a range of such as regional climate impacts of view are attempts to illuminate more contentious and contested issues, such as equity, Collaboration and mutual understanding has also been strengthened by countries and governmental non actors undertaking joint analysis of complex outlines a joint and study commissioned by the BASIC group difficult on different approaches t problems. Box 11 equity. 3.4

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 53

t -

df df ed a ell as

Interdisciplinary Interdisciplinary ’,

l BASIC discussions and suggests suggests that it would still

bution to the body of scientific knowledge. knowledge. of scientific body to the bution

data data set. The resulting paper provid - Climate Climate change in game theory context defined defined outcome and understanding what - investments and raising the ofinvestments spectre border

can can have agency in influencing the likelihood of

– 10.1504/IER.2012.046099 step, and requires an understanding of the core an basis step, understanding and requires :

tasi, tasi, G. [2012] ‘ Ku

cooperative cooperative nations to engage by shifting demand in global state state actors - -

this important group of countries. group important this

and and non national national interest and the external political landscape are the twin pillars anks Equity Study Equity anks – T

. rability, rability, level of development and capacity to respond should be factored , Vol. 13, No. 1 [online] Available at Available 1 [online] 13, No. , Vol. 61 st st damage. Though the principle of equity is acknowledged there are will need to change in order for this outcome to be delivered. Translating this into

–

Understanding leverage: How to win the politics? the to win How leverage: Understanding nces, ideas and processes. and ideas nces, In over In of over two decades formal of analysis ofgame the versions climate different of the theory change several agreemen “core”

61 have been proposed; for a Review recent Environmental review see, An An influencing strategy is based on having a well and who is more an creative strategy influencing a of cooperation. areas specific impact to be levered can they how and of influence tax adjustments However, countries an agreement that aligns with their interests allia if they can leverage their influence through change, change, even the largest country cannot force needed to control climate risk. Even others in this scenario, some analysis to undertake the profound actions make sense for others to continue to agree a climate regime as this would lower climate risk and put pressure on any non markets goods,low towards carbon and services 3.5 Understanding of the supporting an effective diplomatic influencing strategy. Building an influencing strategy also rests on a clear and dispassionate understanding of the potential influencing limitations assets. Given the of relative balance influence of power as between nations on w climate was being framed within within framed was being Contri development: to sustainable access Equitable [2011] BASIC experts Source: http://erc.uct.ac.za/Basic_Experts_Paper.p at: Available [online] Mumbia and Town Cape Brasilia, Beijing, group: BASIC expert strong strong basis for comparing different approaches to equity, their basis in countries. of the responsibilities on shaping have would they impact the and factors, different and principles This joint analysis provides a positions on shared equity, as well analytical as increased understanding basis in other countries for on how this interna issue emissions, emissions, vulne together. In 2012 the BASIC group commissioned leading think tanks from undertake each analysis of on their equity countries based to on a common Equity Equity is a critical principal underlying the climate will regime who those and gases most greenhouse have the which emitted communities countries and given the disparity between the face the mo understandably very different operationalised to shape the negotiations, perspectives and how the different elements such between as historical parties on how it should be Think Basic 11: Box Understanding Climate Diplomacy 54

2014

lateral lateral - stronger stronger : Attempts Attempts by

macy macy such as ement agre

up up to 2015, including the - time and drafting political analysis - ier. : : the number of different groupings and : The build

negotiations negotiations has proliferated. Effective influencing - Political Political Alliances

. e been exposed to specific training likely on a particular issue (e.g. to one exposed specific training likely issue been a particular (e.g. International International Debate

legitimacy legitimacy (including ethical legitimacy), organisation and alliances.

Strategic Strategic the

diplomacy

haping s - nues nues in the formal and para and emphasise the asymmetry articulated earl articulated asymmetry the emphasise and

allies” to leverage stronger influence. stronger leverage to allies” Strategic confidence building and political the impetus and architecture action at of the national agreement level will if only it underpin ambitious accompanied by countries and strategic groupings through confidence the near building negotiations processes between and climate bi core Re UNSG’s Summit, will revitalise opportunity to reframe debate attention around the new political, on scientific and economic climate realities. change, providing the Building New ve requires a focus on those with maximum impact and a cultivating of “unusual –

iii. ii. i.

isproportionately isproportionately (and in some cases existentially) threatened by climate change whilst

variety variety of core diplomatic developing functions which effective buttress core more scripts, real international law practice, undertaking and governance specialist intelligence diplo sharing amongst attaches, knowledge of in climate diplomacy in will climate hav diplomacy climate impacts) or focused on enhancing capacities and training). skills It (e.g. is speech also common writing, practice in media MFA’s to second and recruit foreign service staff e.g. Madeleine from Albright moved outside from the a Georgetown University Professor to US Representative to the United Nations and then on State Secretary. In addition, there are a Perfecting core diplomatic practice core diplomatic Perfecting Underpinning the recommendations and analysis Many involved outside ofand inside government. working by many on a basis outdaily carried below lays core diplomatic operations

While While the detailed shape of influencing strategies is actor and time years: coming critical in the will be practice diplomacy specific climate better areas where there are three having having little contribution to emissions. Ethical debate leverage and in is a “one country, one strongest vote” forum such in as the UNFCCC shaping and UNGA. the public high emitting countries to move discussion of the climate deal into more power based venues such as the G20 or MEF are resisted by vulnerable countries as they have no or representation voice there resources, resources, coercion, ideas, change. climate to apply to available assets of influence set a different will have Each actor For example, AOSIS and LDCs d have effectively leveraged their ethical position as being Classical analysis of sources of influence covers a range of different attributes including: Understanding Climate Diplomacy 55 f this f this is paper giving angiving

west point since before the the before point since west 2013 - promoted promoted by groups such as the national contexts. Th albeit from a low base a from lowalbeit base

case for action - e internationally e internationally

business business leaders and economic ministries. This helped provide the basis

. new analysis with effective communications outreach communications effective with analysis new

shaping the International Debate the International shaping - Re

the costs of climate inaction were higher than the costs of action. Before the publication o the publication Before ofcosts action. the than were higher inaction of climate the costs report, the public discourse had been biased toward an almost exclusive focus on the costs of climate action which in turn justified ‘business as usual’ economic growth. The Stern Report also proved successful in blunting the counter Consensus. Copenhagen The power of power The An example of the power of ideas and analysis is the Stern Report (Box 11) in 2006. This was a game changer as it made a compelling and authoritative which resonated with economic case for climate action for an informed domestic debate inside many countries by highlighting and documenting that

Paris Conference in 2015. in Paris Conference 2004 Change of Climate Coverage Newspaper Global Figure 4: Figure 4 shoes that globally the debate on climate change is at its lo change the debate on climate 4globally shoes Figure that Stern Review and Inconvenient Truth were released in 2006. The majority of the political elite and public groups have not engaged with the to is starting ris to change attention climate issue since Copenhagen in 2009. However, opportunity to reshape the public and elite debate around the new realities in advance of the assumes assumes that these core skills are well understood and therefore focuses on practice innovative areas of more 3.5.1 into digestible briefings and supporting Ministers in inter Understanding Climate Diplomacy 56

and and shape

l to building

ophical argument that argument ophical

to the national interest national the to

on how to value impacts over time and

review review of the economics of climate change, lomacy lomacy can be strengthened by grounding it conomic conomic logic of the Stern Report was accepted

that the benefits of strong and early action on climate climate on action early and strong of benefits the that

The Stern Review makes the philos the makes Review The Stern scientific scientific community to better understand the latest analysis

the the debate by undermining the assumptions that had been used to

community community and developing effective communications strategies which deploy a wide

ambition and demonstrating the significant of climate risk climate of the significant demonstrating and ambition and and identify the most compelling framing and narratives is currently taking place to maximise the opportunities presented by the new synthesis. Understanding the constraints from scientific the range of actors will be essential to demonstrate the material impacts of climate change upon their everyday lives. Constructing and managing these relationships are essentia In addition to engaging with economists, climate diplomacy also interfaces with the scientific community. Engaging with the A diplomatic effort to communicate and rally critical political role support between behind 2006 and the 2007 report to played disseminate a this audience. message This is in an example Europe of how and climate dip the global perspective. a broader in change climate put that economics and analytics on sound changed changed the framing of inaction. climate justified While elements of the analysis can be transparent contested, and the grounded Stern economic Review analysis is can an example be diplomacy climate of how used to shift the debate discount rate to value future costs and benefits than the rates used in traditional economic economic traditional used in rates the than benefits and costs future value to rate discount models. Despite criticism over the methodology, the e by professional economists in most countries. Globally the report did become the basis from which countries and business looked to quantify the costs and benefits of climate action, and change would outweigh the costs of inaction. of inaction. costs the outweigh would change and visibility wide both obtained it that was Stern Report of the importance The critical would change on climate action early and strong of benefits the that a position for authority of action. costs the outweigh greatly lower much a employs and equally be treated should future, and current generations, all Assessing Assessing the costs and benefits of addressing climate change, and level identifying of the climate risk ‘optimal’ requires judgements to be made space, and how to handle risk and uncertainty. This has proved as controversial often different positions. their existing that support assumptions on their analysis sides base illustrated importantly Review The Stern Box 11: Stern Report: How Analysis can Shift Climate Diplomacy Climate Shift can Analysis How Report: Stern 11: Box Nicholas Stern, a senior UK government economist, was commissioned by Gordon Brown (UK Chancellor of the Exchequer) to produce a major globally. and domestically both be met could the challenges how and

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 57 and and

varies varies complex complex and

linear linear change, dible scenarios scenarios dible n, n, in in the short term uncertai Work Work in this area

objectives objectives

an an illusion of energy/scenarios.html offs. - - . in in examining future development

policy elationship elationship to the core interests of 12 shows a rich tradition exists to 63 However, building cre However, building exercises creates Box rratives rratives around competitiveness, costs,

) it is difficult to formulate compelling change change is a messy, futures futures choices analysis will be critical to reframe debates in a more ithout ithout a compelling “why” (consequences

societal societal work

ted group have any idea what a 2°C or 4°C world actually http://www.shell.com/global/future echnocratic echnocratic certain certain climate damages could exist alongside their business

[online] Available at: Available [online]

scenarios

Recent work by the World Bank usually usually very generates positive reactions from senior decision makers, The climate change debate has often been framed around the results . Instead, Instead, t

future and and control. But {online] Available at: at: Available {online]

ttle ttle relationship to the actual opportunities and challenges in the real ) and an explicit “what” ( Turn down the heat the down Turn Scenarios

Shell Shell

. 62 ften ften has little impact on policy. The main reason for this lies in their lack of its of actions Shell [2013] Shell [2013] Bank World

62 63 http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_mu st_be_avoided.pdf

scenarios scenarios in a 4°C world shows the potential impact of scenario type the public and analysis makers decision among action for basis stronger in providing a understanding understanding of how different futures might impact their and how strategies. to effective response robust, develop can help them elucidate the hard choices and political trade depending which sectors/professions are engaged as inform this future work models Investment in good productive manner, and but o In In the gap between modelling outputs and public debates interest groups aiming to prevent ambitious action have constructed more resonant na feasibility and unfairness of the low carbon transition. What opponents of ambitious climate action have not done is to construct consistent scenarios which explain how an high increasingly carbon future with high/un implies implies for their national security and prosperity. Likewise framing the challenge of moving to a low carbon economy in terms investment of bears percentages li of GDP lost over transition. this with associated economy 40 years and scale of of climate and economic/energy modelling which elevates the notion of certainty and linear change. The numerical outputs of these studies bear little r countries and publics and thus often fail to make an impact in broader debates. For example, though the ‘below 2°C’ goal is iconic however, few people outside this limi inside the international climate change community, Often technocratic debates forget that benef w “hows” (strategies). certainty, continuity uncomfortable process. scenario through space political the Identifying Understanding Climate Diplomacy 58

s the

“political “political will”.

with human with human

o empower each ocus on consensus on consensus ocus on (e.g. shale gas shale on (e.g. s this s understand understand the real

disrupti

combine

management skills and and skills management

seldom

building risk building rather rather than blame inaction of lack of

w.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/cabinetoffice/strategy/assets/investing.pdf –

ures knowledge but but knowledge ures evelop preventative approaches in areas such as conflict, as conflict, such in areas approaches preventative evelop [online] Available at: Available [online]

face .

’ 64

Box Box 13 demonstrates the significance of building strategic alliances to to work, governments will need to better weak futures culture with bias towards process driven reactive reactive driven process towards bias with culture futures weak

. strong tradition on forecasting and formal futures methods which shape shape which methods futures formal and on forecasting tradition strong Investing in Prevention in Investing :

decision decision makers

generally : : strong quantitative fut quantitative : strong

that which weakens ability to d to ability weakens which

: very weak futures culture and static modelling approaches that ignore disruptive disruptive that ignore approaches modelling static and culture futures weak very : : strong futures systems in military but very weak understanding of conflict and peace peace and of conflict understanding weak very but military in futures systems strong : policy

Building New Strategic Political Alliances Political Strategic New Building

imate imate diplomacy and transitions and assume that current trends will continue into the future. the into will continue trends current that assume and transitions and

cl 12: Shaping Perceptions using Future Scenarios Future using Perceptions Shaping 12: Government [2005] [2005] Government UK

64 http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/ww

tactical alliances is the most diplomacy. feasible option Groupings such to as the construct LDCs more and AOSIS others’ influence political often influence. work within together t climate objectives. political achieve to order in 3.5.2 In many developing countries where capacity is particularly challenging, building strategic and For constraints Climate diplomacy should engage more with other their analysis. into them actors incorporate to how understand to community) security that utilise futures (such a and market systems market and Economy shifts long term investment in technology and resource exploration. Tendency to f to Tendency exploration. resource and in technology investment term long technical to due wrong prove which scenarios than rather forecasts electricity of over estimation (e.g. interests incumbent with or alignment renewables) and growth). demand Environment Foreign strategies tensions resource and extremism Energy/Resources Different sectors and professions take different approaches to developing future scenarios scenarios future developing to approaches different take professions and sectors Different Security and valuing of culture strong have Military drivers. to responses developing in involved lags time the of because scenarios” case “worst examining new threats. Box

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 59

policy During his During his

and and The limited limited The the Durban

), during 2011 during ), Together, Together, the immensely vel government vel government

le being that if the Jarju Jarju led the LDC Group art art scientific

- s climate diplomacy, this is the - of -

ny of their peers. constrain plans plans to travel to selected cities such

r on the COP 18 negotiations and took not considered ‘core’ countries as they and and academia. As well as meeting with further

integrate integrate state to to to to the bloc in a critical milestone of the UNFCCC

established under the UNFCCC in 2001 in the UNFCCC under established group group expired, Pa Ousman Jarju was appointed as also published an open letter to President Obama in (

be introduced introduced key elements for effective to strategizing the

The The LDC Group was one of the first groups to call for a

entation entation and demanding expertise in a number of fields. will organizations

These strategic elements have contributed

the LDC

action both within and outside the LDC Group. Group. LDC the outside and within both action authored authored a briefing pape - , Gambia the LDC Group the , , his role Pa Pa Ousman Jarju s s in vulnerable countries

to the Gambia. In his new role, he climate climate

diplomatic diplomatic and political situations, and build alliance and consensus for more a new level of prominence long long press event for an of audience 70 around journalists the world. -

These elements include: the establishment of the LDC Core Team; the creation of

priority fora priority with

The role of Climate Envoys in empowering alliances in empowering Envoys Climate of role The

LDC strategy meetings.

ter ter his chairmanship of –

LDC LDC countries. - Special Special Climate Envoy

hairmanship. hairmanship. During COP 17, the LDC group, chaired by Pa Ousman imited imited human resource

do not contribute significantly to emissions but bear the l majority of the impacts) and the compounded by a focus on implem Streamline Climate change is treated in outcomes. delivering for accountability and a responsibility diluted and prioritisation wide variety of disconnected fora political influence (i.e. and many vulnerable countries are that has reduced knowledge urgent and ambitious input CDKN Source: as London, New Delhi, York, New Beijing and Rio de to Janeiro meet the high le officials as well as Ambassadors from the LDCs in civil order to raise awareness of importance of society such climate envoy LDCs. other role for As part part in an hour chairmanship, the media storm surrounding the LDCs grew to include non articles in at least 17 Soon af Special Climate Envoy hosting prominence. the Group’s raising As the LDC Group Chair, the Guardian newspaper, co Platform Platform on Enhanced Action, a process leading towards a new multilateral rule based system 2015.in Among many other activities LDC Group. an LDC paper series; the launch of the LDC Group website; conducting media briefings; and to partner with AOSIS and the EU. legally binding agreement applicable to all Parties in Durban, their rationa most vulnerable and least responsible commit to more ambition, no nation should be exempt from commitment. This willingness to show ‘skin in the game’ significant secured the credibility LDC group amongst with the media, public coalition with and AOSIS and the ma EU was critical to securing a COP decision to launch Gambia’s chairmanship of Gambia’s chairmanship and 2012 gave negotiations. Support from CDKN and c IIED was critical to the LDC Groups success during Gambia’s 13 Box Understanding Climate Diplomacy 60 Box fora in

nowledge nowledge ing offs required offs required alliances alliances (e.g. -

which which conceal

ountries ountries in these debates and and streamlin

diplomatic diplomatic nts. nts. For example, Box 14 increases increases the coherence ation that work work to the UNFCCC in the run

But But diplomacy is also creative in development level, vulnerability, . prioritis

mentary structure le out of inefficient fossil fuels or future financial comp - In In addition pooling intelligence and k us us on policy and technical

, phase uence uence well beyond individual country capabilities. to win the case for regime. mited mited resource capacity available. The question is how to

climate climate

lating lating to transparency and accountability) which operates as an effective effective and sophisticated

) is critical for those with limited capacity to engage in other fora. an 2.4 2.4 re without without falling in the trap of thinking this would eliminate the need for a

- is is an urgent priority in order to increase political leverage of c –

esigning esigning pter pter 2, 3.4.2 alliances alliances will expand. The core group shaping the 3GF forum on green growth is omies omies Forum (MEF) which could carry out igh igh level of scientific and technical rigor in the UNFCCC process, more diplomacy will need to

Denmark, China, South Korea, Denmark, China, Mexico, Qatar. The Kenya South Korea, and launch Club” new “Renewables in 2013 by Germany has ten members including the UK, Tonga China, and the India, United Morocco, Arab Emirates. South Over time Africa, these new coalitions will help underpin and 15 shows how unusual alliances have formed to move forward critical decisions in the climate negotiations. As the climate regime moves further unusual into shaping implementation and investment these Climate Climate change features a large and growing set of formal and informal alliances. participate Countries in multiple groupings based sectoral interests and political alignment. on Some of the most mature geography, AOSIS and the EU) have developed highly pooled diplomatic capacity which has empowered these groups to deliver impact and infl h be applied to deliver better political strategies for change leveraging capacity through alliances between and beyond governme ends. strategic to achieve created alliances of informal the progression illustrates the political and economic realities that require changing in mentioned (as to (MRV) Verification and Reporting Measure, of issue the For example, ground. deliver more ambition on the the chapter 1 increasingly technical negotiation under the UNFCCC, but underlying this negotiation resides a substantial political choice regarding national sovereignty. While it is important to sustain a to deliver more ambition. more to deliver alignments new for New alliances Climate diplomacy to date has tended to foc specific specific and official work streams dedicated to climate change. Another example is the Major Econ up to the COP binding climate agreement. Collective agreements to prioritise climate in a few international fora are critical to maximising the li ensure a more cohesive climate regime that prioritises and streamlines the trade For example, addressing climate change inside the G20 does not increase leverage given the economic focus of the grouping. This does not mean climate should not be addressed in the G20 i.e. discussions on resource scarcity liabilities due to climate action. What should be resisted are the calls for this process to hold order to shape an efficient (see Cha However, d between issues discussions. Effective climate diplomacy will need Understanding Climate Diplomacy 61

agreement agreement and South South divide) of - me, me, evolving and responding

ased on the North Minded Minded Developing Countries (LDMC) bjectives - aditional aditional interpretation of the Convention in

s around the objective of a legally binding and ambitious agreement. ambitious and binding of a legally objective the around s

ation. world. world. These alliances are more fluid than the New York examples, and are - binding binding agreement with commitments for all. So these examples of new dialogues

willing to join new groupings to satisfy their climate objectives. climate their tosatisfy groupings join to new willing realign action inside the UNFCCC cooper sustainable providing a stronger basis for mutual The G77 no longer speaks as a single voice on all matters, and other groupings of developing and developed countries are clustering around common issues such legally as the need to have a suggest that countries are traditional moving alliances of outside the past. their Today comfort there zones are a and growing number understand of countries as that are the to the real essentially created to achieve strategic and more concrete objectives. For example, the LMDC grouping is diverse and aims to protect the relation to tr equity and CBDR. The Cartagena Dialogue is a broad developing grouping countries of which developed aims and to share and test ideas and propositions in order to build countrie of alliance larger a and the Cartagena Dialogue for Progressive Action illustrates that the UNFCCC negotiations are negotiations illustrates that the UNFCCC Action for Progressive Dialogue the Cartagena and disrupting the traditional alliances (those more rigidly b York. New in Headquarters Nations the United in based those This is primarily due to countries maturing in substantive interest, creating tensions but discussions also demonstrating a on dynamic regi their real national o strategic achieve to alliances unusual Creating 14 Box The establishment of informal alliances such as the Like Understanding Climate Diplomacy 62

. it

65 – It had a a had The kernel kernel The gic alliance alliance gic to push for a push to

strate is joint effort effort is joint Th

how how to use this energy to

and more ambitious action action ambitious more and

viewed the negotiations. negotiations. the viewed

during the COP during

lty capturing the attention from their from the attention lty capturing

agreement

ed ed by sustainable development. These groups ate agreement. It raised the political stakes stakes the political It raised agreement. ate 2020 s countries had come together to push for a push to together come had s countries ’ priority in Europe, and without political attention, attention, political without and in Europe, priority

[online] Available at: at: Available [online]

in the final days of the COP17 in South Africa. Africa. in South COP17 of the days final the in Domestically, the legitimacy of vulnerable countries countries vulnerable of the legitimacy Domestically, governmental governmental actors to shape climate politics domestically - alignment as opposed to an enduring enduring to an opposed as alignment e LDCs and AOSIS AOSIS and e LDCs the power of creative collaboration creative of power the

–

openness to new collaborations. new to openness tactical

ine. ine. majority of the world the of majority

Decisions legal outcome of the future the future of outcome legal national.org/index.php/legislation/studies/climate The GLOBE Climate Legislation Study Legislation Climate GLOBE The the collaboration of th the collaboration The Durban Durban The impact upon how those outside of the ‘climate bubble’ bubble’ ‘climate of the outside those how upon impact was

15: Durban decisions to establish a new negotiating track to 2015 were based on alignment alignment on based were 2015 to track negotiating a new establish to decisions Durban GLOBE [2013] [2013] GLOBE

65 http://www.globeinter contributed to progress towards significant climate legislation in 32 of 33 major economies major 33 of32 in legislation climate significant towards progress to contributed and and international is likely to grow. The challenge for diplomacy is strengthen ambition in the formal climate regime. For example, the Global Legislators Forum (GLOBE) composes of national legislation who work together to develop and agree common legislative responses to the major challenges parliamentarians pos have aligned their positions, empowered one another and this has Effective diplomacy is not merely about government to government or ministry engagement, to but ministry also about deploying effective impacts, climate rising and markets, low carbon With fast growing the private sector. engaging communications, public mobilisation and the capacity and resources of non inside the negotiations and got sufficient political attention in European capitals which in turn in turn which capitals in European attention political got sufficient and the negotiations inside Durban. in the deal push helped a was primarily thisWhilst of value the demonstrates were most vocal about their support for a legally binding agreement. agreement. binding legally a for support their about vocal most were strong that a evident became 2015. in agreement binding legally clim an international for case Europe’s increased Europe would have struggled to get agreement on signing up to the second commitment commitment second to up the signing on agreement get to struggled would have Europe a agreement to their objectives securing to critical was which Protocol Kyoto of the period deadl binding 2015 legally that countries developing of grouping with the publically worked Europe days, few the last In During the COP, the negotiators inside the EU had difficu EU had the inside the negotiators the COP, During (COP17 crisis Eurozone on the focus overwhelming the given the capitals in politicians of impacts the manage onto how meetings Council European the to symmetry in happened have not did Climate crisis). the Eurozone The countries of groups several between of this strong of a package America Latin offrom countries group a of support the also gained approach This 2020. before Box Understanding Climate Diplomacy 63

- – g to - -

o uals t - tanks -

financial financial

ts ts of the

to the convening of of convening to the agreement

It refers refers It

used used to build strategic

” processes utilising think

http://www.ewi.info/FAQs

and and 1.5 e to policy foreign broader tensions which

66 d the architecture of architecture the d p://www.ewi.info/FAQs htt [online] Available at: at: Available [online] uch as uch as Europe and the about US, strongly the disagree

FAQs China China relationship. This is partly due to the difficulty of the - China China relationship has a far lower profile among elites and -

ic confidence building agreements must go beyond normal [online] Available at: Available [online]

confidence confidence building processes it is critical to build a thick web of

FAQs West Institute [2013] Institute West ” should be allocated given their different rates of development and - the private sector, academics and civil society to devise new solutions to pressing global security issues issues security global pressing to solutions new devise to society civil and academics sector, private the

see East

– reas. There are often fears among foreign policy analysts in developing countries Strategic confidence building an building confidence Strategic West Institute [2013] Institute West

- Track 1.5 diplomacy is a term used to explain its combined use of Track 1 and Track 2 diplomacy. 2 1 Track and of Track use combined its to explain used term a is 1.5 diplomacy Track Track II diplomacy engages retired government and military officials, academics, activists, civil society members and individ and members society civil activists, academics, officials, military and government retired engages II diplomacy Track .

government officials with officials government East see 66 government at the addressed adequately be cannot that issues specific tackle to business and sector private the in involved level government 67 and and climate change in the resources to past this process the decade. EU However, despite media allocating in both regions than the US far more EU acting a policy unitary foreign and actor partly du energy. as such issues on “soft” cooperation emphasis to China and US the encourage confidence confidence in the credibility of a country’s motivations, positions and statements. Military military cooperation and joint military exercises tensions. security” “hard with countries between confidence have often been As Box 16 the and US describes EU with have on China relationships both built energy strategic include include significant investments in joint projects and sharing of information and cooperation in sensitive a that climate change is being used as a covert attempt to limit their growth and open the door to protectionist trade practices. Exposure of importance internal of discussions and climate assessmen change to broader foreign policy issues is one way of building Building Confidence Strategic for Agreements Bilateral To have impact, “relationship building” strateg measures such as professional exchanges and minor joint projects, to Alongside Alongside these public informal channels including better use of “Track II and officials in informal settings. Perhaps the biggest gap in of Heads (HoS/HoG) and to of structure between Heads Government State prepare discussions the current regime is a stron themselves. Paris negotiations 2015 the and Summit Leaders UN 2014 the of advance in 2°C outcome. Emerging powers such as China and India have underlying tensions “atmospheric over how space population growth. Diplomacy has traditionally used confidence strategic building measures to relationships. difficult in such understanding trust and increase Diplomacy should be about increasing understanding and collaboration among countries that disagree, seeking commonality and compromise, not only about building cooperation among allies. onTraditional allies other s issues, institutional basis of the climate regime, the role of equity and the importance of delivering a 3.5.3

Understanding Climate Diplomacy 64

fective fective confidence building approaches which are ents for ambition i.e. securing a global legal agreement. a legal global i.e. securing ambition ents for

foreign foreign relations in order to develop coherent ef with broader objectives. strategic However, bilateral relationships which caution ensure they should are complementary be to the applied formal requirem the dobypass not and regime to constructing This example again demonstrates the need to better integrate climate change into broader Understanding Climate Diplomacy 65 - - r

ope ope

recent recent

hfcs -

down - ependence ependence on

phase 713.pdf [online] Available at: Available [online] processes processes and the -

rather rather than practical

China Relationships China together – -

- work - http://energy.gov/fe/services/international

ecially ecially the access it gives them to agree - China vs EU vs China Making choices over China over choices Making - china

and ma Summit in June 2013. June in ma Summit

- Oba - states - [online] [online] Available at:

China China relationship has led to much more high profile - ; Centre for European Reform [ 2011] [ 2011] Reform European for ; Centre office/2013/06/08/united - china - press - China China bilateral agreements - US

China Climate Change Working Group Fact Sheet [online] Available at: at: Available [online] Sheet Fact Group Working Change Climate China ange ange into other international fora is the discussions inside the UNSC, as - .S. financed by financed China. Despite the lack of financial resources officials Chinese are U -

nature nature of the US United States and China Agree to Work Together on Phase Down of HFCs [online] Available at: at: Available HFCs[online] of Down on Phase Together Work to Agree China and States United agreements

- ast decade, but for very different reasons and with different outcomes. with different and reasons different very forbut decade, ast

– ate change to influential foreign policy policy foreign influential to change ate this this and the range of joint by(the initiatives launched now Premier) Li in Keqiang 2012, East East supplies. The US and China often use energy and climate as a “safe space” to China China partnership has never sustained high level political attention. Chinese officials

- -

nship nship has been built around practical cooperation on the Clean Development Know Know yourself), this can also be replicated internationally. One of the key examples in

- ating more opportunities for bolder and more ambitious alliances. ambitious more and for bolder opportunities more ating US US Energy dept [2013] White House [2013] House White US State Dept [2013] Dept State US

http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2011/pb_mabey_china_nov09

cre As well as aligning climate at the national level to other foreign policy priorities (see Chapter 2 3.3 aligning climate ch confidence in more build help debates can other climate alongside Box in outlined Aligning 16. underlying motivations for action and animate and engage new actors and messengers http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/07/211768.htm - http://www.whitehouse.gov/the clim Aligning cooperation cooperation Xi the at deal agreed HFC the notably outcomes, Sources: - cooperation/bilateral - advance advance cooperation when othercooperation security to and announcements). economic date The US tensions allocates has resist very few initiatives are solution. co financial been resources The to this largely agreement and generally pleased with their relationship with the all US and esp small scale US and companies symbolic and national (despite research institutes. The political In contrast, the US has a more complex relationship with China on climate change aiming fo results on contentious transparency of emissions accounting processes. The US shares few core energy interests negotiating with issues such China, especially given as its rising shale oil parity and Middle gas production of and declining d legal commitments and Despite the EU remain frustrated with the complexity of engaging with the bureaucracy of intricate the EU donor relationships. They have responded by increasingly focusing on bi Germany. such as powers major with lateral discussions Mechanism and bilateral cooperation. Up to 2012 EU, countries were transferring €60 million a a €60million transferring were countries 2012 to EU, Up cooperation. bilateral and Mechanism year on bilateral cooperation and €1.5 billion in CDM payments to China every shares year. several Eur core energy interests with China as both are growing importers of oil and from gas the Middle East and Russia. Europe is the major market for China’s growing low carbon production. panel solar of its bulk the including sectors, Both the EU and US have prioritised bilateral partnerships with China on energy and the p in change climate The EU has based its climate change relationship with the aim to increase Chinese mitigation ambition, and providing complementary relatio action to the global UNFCCC negotiations. The US Building: Confidence Strategic in Differences 15: Box Understanding Climate Diplomacy 66 there there

nalysis nalysis – ling ling this issue. quity would be quity ders ders can be high ns ns Security Council

offs between climate - ng them as unspoken assumptions assumptions as unspoken them ng

the the value of engaging the security

– on).

limited limited forum such as the UNSC. Other countries

door door discussion was led jointly by the U.K. and - -

intensive intensive sectors. But engaging lea - energy cutting cutting nature of climate change means that many decisions are - resulting resulting in failure to prepare for worst case scenarios (unlike existing

– politics politics will extend far outside the environmental sphere, and will link old - actors actors must not just prepare to respond to the security challenges of climate terrorism or nuclear weapons proliferati weapons nuclear or terrorism

- )perceptions of underlying motivations. motivations. of underlying )perceptions -

r developing countries on the security impacts of climate change, there was some it it was again raised as an issue for a formal debate. But China and Russia raised Arria Arria Formula UN Security Council Meeting

erience erience of how government can drive technological development and infrastructure

change change and other interests e.g. Government and State of Heads Engaging The importance and cross elevated to national leaders. This is crucial to manage political trade change; change; they must also be part of managing the the solution. consequences Security sector of reform the exp will be changes central we to are change. climate to respond to needed already that to scale similar at a deployment undergoing, and have vital Climate Climate change geo problems in new ways. the Managing complexity of our collective climate security will become policy. foreign of part more important ever an Security sector Pakistan on the ‘Security Dimensions of Climate Change’. of Climate Dimensions the ‘Security on Pakistan The value of raising climate change as a security implication is important. Economic a has systematically undervalued extreme impacts of climate change including their impacts on stability and security anti practice in In In 2012, objections. Whilst there is general consensus that climate has security implications are significant disputes between countries over the legitimacy of UNSC in hand Instead, an informal (Arria Formula), closed community Climate change has been a formal topic of discussion at the United Natio (UNSC) in 2007 and 2010. Many vulnerable broader foreign countries policy have debates and supported institutions they this aim engagement to open in the political agreement. 2015 the of ahead politicalspace pressure to build these concerns were raised in open debate leavi than rather concerns main the allowed of some hopefully dispel Parties to clarify their intentions and (mis shaping Box 16: climate climate change in other fora. While the debates showed general agreement from China and other majo resistance to this discussing in a membership of e of the principles some change climate that by “securitising” concerns raised lost and human security issues would be driven out by national security concerns. The fact However, the Security Council debate process also showed the sensitivities in incorporating Understanding Climate Diplomacy 67

. weak weak up up to

only hip hip level, break here here is

is a on vital the step to path a

14 manage manage the risks and expectations from 17 17 demonstrates the efforts undertaken in The Box level sherpas group or process. group sherpas level - ds of Government and States’ engagement States’ and Government of ds . as diplomatic failure. Fearing that they would be a decisive different to the outcome. the to different a decisive

ing ing was mishandled leaving the leaders feeling excluded and no

. Such preparation helps build trust and mutual confidence, and helps nce nce will also see the now familiar escalation of bilateral phone calls level UN Secretary General’s meeting meeting in General’s 20 level Secretary UN - 05. 05. Breaking previous G8 protocol the leaders of the “plus 5” countries (China, India, up up to the confere - he proposed he high proposed

agreement was found on forming a heads a forming on was found agreement An informal network of Heads’ advisors did form in the make to run breadth or time have the up to Copenhagen, but did not trust and understanding. trust and Despite good intentions the outnumbered and pressured result into concessions the “plus five” w met before Gleneagles to agree common lines, thus divisions enhancing sowing and perhaps the seeds to group. The the BASIC choreography of the meet in in 20 Brazil, Mexico and South Africa) were invited to issues. The attend aim being to in build understanding of order the core to challenges at leaders discuss climate change down “North/South” barriers and get agreement on a “sherpas” who would group meet over of the leader’s next few advisors years to build an outline agreement and higher levels of It is vital that relationships are built between key leaders and their advisors in the this run political crescendo Summit. Copenhagen the around proliferated which misunderstandings of type the eliminates An attempt was made to create such a network of relationships at the Gleneagles G8 Summit in negotiations climate Paris at the forged the agreement or reject toaccept decisions The final in 2015 even will The person. of if they with Heads State are not and rest present Government, run deal. out a hammer to work their negotiators as leaders between understanding. understanding. Significant investment is needed to high level meetings and ensure ambition Leaders. the to Advisors by engagement of a network to form Copenhagen to up the run Hea supporting of challenges The 17 Box Adequate preparation and engagement of leaders is required to build up to critical moments critical to up build to is required of leaders engagement and preparation Adequate T more ambitious climate change agreement in 2015. However, at present, t diplomatic machinery to prepare for Heads engagement and build mutual trust and risk, as underprepared leaders can undermine trust and dramatically hinder ambition Understanding Climate Diplomacy 68

ctivity. up” up” solutions - ot yet sufficiently making making processes to shape - e risk represents one of the lign lign climate with other national

tic capacity. Since 2009, diplomacy climate

making making machinery to be able to deliver effective - whether whether on human rights, environment, trade or

–

up” up” action is needed, but must be seen as complementary, - macy in order to deliver the most impact. But prioritisation is macy order in to the most prioritisation But deliver is impact. e international level, and conversely use the international

government) government) systems. The majority of countries have n - has always involved reciprocity between global, regional and national a national and global, regional between reciprocity involved always has

down” down” and “bottom –

- e change programmes which are rooted in domestic political consensus and national ell as the imperative to increase available capacity, there is much more countries could lso highly creative in leveraging capacity through alliances between and beyond international international agreement it will be impossible; there are no credible “bottom elivering elivering effective climate diplomacy requires significant institutional changes to government

As w learn from diplomatic best practices in change. climate of the area in capacity diplomatic other fields to more effectively leverage general climate diplomacy. diplomacy. climate Delivering an effective climate powerful. how matter no department, diplomacy strategy is beyond the capacity of any one governments. D (and many non embedded climate change into the decision Diplomatic Diplomatic capacity will always be limited and where to focus diplo their climate countries are already making hard choices not the only solution to constrained resources. Investment in skills better use of capacity. Climate effectively diplomacy diplomatic can increase general resources and tools which enable is a outcomes outcomes and progress at th domestically. ambition stimulate and drive to momentum The dynamic and evolving climate regime has resulted change as a priority limitedgiven specialist diploma in a challenge to maintain climate has suffered a stagnation, and in some cases reduction, of capacity in many countries. Diplomacy Diplomacy is not merely the external projection of a position. The application of diplomacy to climate change is critical to embedding climate change in decision and reframe the core national interest. Diplomacy should a interest priorities. Diplomacy should use all the tools at divide between its the national and the disposal international. It should to turn national action into bridge political the artificial and and not competing modes of action. This regime can only work if it rests on strong national climat development processes. Global action issues gender which which will deliver a below 2°C future. No country can control the climate risk it faces on its own. The lack of an effective international regime to limit climat diplomacy. modern of failures greatest Stronger “top Without agreement to a major increase in mitigation ambition pre and post 2020 the ability to limit climate risks to below 2°C will disappear. Experience and analysis suggests that without an Conclusions Understanding Climate Diplomacy 69

capacity

offs to be - from a variety governmental actors: governmental - ensuring national actors in

it may evolve into the future.

rating climate change issues into understanding objectives rooted in

understanding the national drivers behind generating a clear and comprehensive systemic

g strategic levers to shift negotiations and political

collecting meaningful information and intelligence ifferent ifferent the following areas have repeatedly been as raised priorities

international positions, the role of different constituencies in shaping

conditions is critical to developing an effective strategy across fora and alliances.a range of international Developing options and objectives for the evolution of the international regime: to explore and developcooperation across the full scope of the regime. different solutions for building effective climate change other international policy areas at a level that allows informed political trade made. Developing diplomatic objectives and robust strategies: political analysis and identifyin understanding of the full political space available and how National coordination and political convening other areas structures:have a clear view of the constraints and opportunities around climateinternational change negotiations and cooperation. Integ Intelligence gathering: of sources in order to analysis. triangulate evidence and build a robust and Understanding the future broadpolitical space: political Understanding the national countries’ interest: positions and the balance between climate change and broader foreign shapingpolicy negotiations. issues in

> > > > > for improving climate diplomacy capacity in governments, and in non and in governments, capacity diplomacy climate for improving > Though all countries are d Understanding Climate Diplomacy 70

state state actors in -

economy economy (i.e. production and -

to to the range of possibilities available within

this this refers

– the broader constellation of institutions than the UNFCCC

–

pment Strategies (LEDS) forum (LEDS) Strategies pment nd nd implementing institutions such as the G8, Major Economies Forum relates relates to collaboration between countries/other non constellation of governance institutions related to global affairs global to related institutions governance of constellation

– – the current snapshot of the political context and situation and context political the of snapshot current the

relationship between relationship the actions in the real

–

cooperation ption ption of goods and services) and the political system (i.e. the political parties and key

Political Landscape Political Climate change climate of addressing the pursuit International Regime International Operating space/Political Space political boundaries. And identifies the opportunities for different actors to exert influence on system the political negotiations negotiations and associated implementing international climate institutions regime (e.g. is concerned Green operating international a with Climate engagement on Fund). climate The change Develo Low Emission and in other Political Political Economy consum makers) decision and constituencies International Climate Regime terminology of Glossary Understanding Climate Diplomacy 71

Engineering Engineering Employers

- EEF

n Climate Change Climate n

Climate Change Change Climate

Organisation

States

ies

tish Industry tish

Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs of Humanitarian Coordination chlorofluorocarbons chlorofluorocarbons

Minded Developing Countries Countries Developing Minded - Economic Economic Community of West African States Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Assistance Committee Committee Assistance Development and Cooperation Economic for Organisation -

Heads of State and Heads of Government Government of Heads and State of Heads National Climate Change Coordinating Leading Small Group Small Group Leading Coordinating Change Climate National - Common But Differentiated Responsibility and Respective Capabilities Capabilities Respective and Responsibility Differentiated But Common

- - - Global Legislators Forum on climate change on climate Forum Legislators Global National Coordination Committee o Committee Coordination National

International Renewables Energy Agency Energy Renewables International National Leading Committee on Climate Change Change Climate on Committee Leading National Like Brazil, South Africa, India and China and India Africa, South Brazil,

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership Partnership Energy Efficiency and Energy Renewable Millennium Development Goals Goals Development Millennium

Alliance of Small Island Island of Small Alliance UN Office of Office UN Multilateral Development Banks Banks Development Multilateral

Association of Independent Latin American and Caribbean Countries Caribbean and American Latin of Independent Association National Development and Reform Commission Reform and Development National

Climate Development Knowledge Network Network Knowledge Development Climate

- –

Global Green Growth Institute Growth Green Global

International Civil Aviation Aviation Civil International Hydra Clean Development Mechanism Mechanism Development Clean - – - Verification and Reporting Measure, Non government organizations organizations government Non Chlorofluorocarbons Chlorofluorocarbons – Energy Agency Atomic International - Clean Energy Ministerial Ministerial Energy Clean - - Intergovernmental Panel on Panel Intergovernmental - – IPCC Fifth Assessment Review Review Assessment Fifth IPCC - Major Economies Forum Forum Economies Major

Green Growth Forum Growth Green RC RC - International Maritime Organisation Organisation Maritime International

Climate Action Network Network Action Climate

Conference of the Parties the of Conference Food and Agricultural Organisation Organisation Agricultural and Food

Green Climate Fund Fund Climate Green International Institute of Environment and Development Development and Environment of Institute International -

Global Environment Facility Environment Global Least Developed Countr Developed Least

Regions of Climate Action of Climate Regions Climate Vulnerables Forum Forum Vulnerables Climate

Cities Climate Leadership Group Leadership Climate Cities Bri of Confederation -

- -

- - -

- - Central Intelligence Agency Agency Intelligence Central

International Energy Agency Energy International European Union European

- - - - -

–

- - – ------– - – F COWAS COWAS

OECD DAC OECD R20 REEEP NCCCC NCCCC NCCCLSG NDRC NGO NLCCC OCHA LDC LMDC MDBs MDGs MEF MRV ICAO ICAO IEA IIED IMO IPCC IRENA GGGi GGGi GLOBE HFCs HoS/HoG IAEA Federation Federation EU FAO 3GF GCF GEF CEM CFCs CIA COP CV E C40 CAN CBDR CBI CDKN CDM AILAC AOSIS AR5 BASIC Acronyms Understanding Climate Diplomacy 72

mmission mmission

Peace Building Peace anisation anisation Nations Industrial Development Organisation Organisation Development Industrial Nations United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea ofLaw the of Convention Nations United United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Change on Climate Convention Framework Nations United Reduction Disaster for Strategy International Nations United United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees Refugees on Commissioner High Nations United Nations United

United Nations Convention on Biodiversity Biodiversity on Convention Nations United

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification Desertification Combat to Convention Nations United

- United United -

- –

United Nations General Assembly Assembly General Nations United – - - United Nations Development Programme Development Nations United World Meteorological Organisation Organisation Meteorological World World Intellectual Property Organisation Organisation Property Intellectual World United Nations Environment Programme Programme Environment Nations United - United Nations Security Council Council Security Nations United

World Energy Outlook Energy World

World Health Org World Health Sustainable Development Goals Development Sustainable

World Trade Organisation Organisation Trade World

State Meteorological Administration Administration Meteorological State - -

- - -

Republic of the Marshall Islands Islands Marshall the of Republic - -

- –

- - PBC -

WMO WMO UN UNSC WEO WHO WIPO WTO UNEP UNFCCC UNGA UNHCR UNIDO UNISDR SDGs SMA UNCBD UNCCD UNCLOS UNDP RMI