letters and articles 1989 - 2002 relating to the provenance and presentation of

“Contraction & Convergence”

GCI’s contribution to realising the objective of

the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change

1 “It’s not a question of whether, but how much, how soon” John Knaess.

Second World Climate Conference Geneva November 1990

2 GCI at the UN in 1996, COP-2 Geneva

UN Climate Negotiations April 1997

3 ContentsContentsContents

1989 ...... 12 April 17 - World Rainforest Movement ...... 121212 Penang Manifesto ...... 12 Call to Action for Forests & their Peoples ...... 12 November 3 - Guardian ...... 141414 Last chance to save the rainforests ...... 14 November 09 - Kilburn Times ...... 151515 Green Campaigners deliver letter to P M ...... 15 November 23 – Kilburn Times ...... 161616 Annihilation ...... 16 1990 ...... 17 January - BBC Wildlifeildlifeildlife ...... 171717 How to tell the green from the camouflage...... 17 February - Geographical Magazine ...... 191919 The Campaign Continues ...... 19 June 15 - Guardian...... 212121 ‘The leagues of cruel numbers’ ...... 21 June 18 - Guardian...... 222222 Climate change; urgent message to the world ...... 22 1991...... 24 March - GCI ...... 252525 Freeloading on Global Warming Benefits ...... 25 April - GCI ...... 282828 Carbon Fixing First World CO2 in 3rd World Forests, ‘Sinks without Trace’ ...... 28 June 9th - Guardian ...... 292929 Cold War of Global Warming ...... 29 July 23 - Guardian ...... 313131 Ecological debt to the Third World...... 31 September 9 - The Independent ...... 323232 ‘Britain’s role in climate targets’...... 32 September - Guardian...... 323232 Drunken drivers on the road to global warming ...... 32 September - Guardian...... 333333 The climate of change ...... 33 October 4 - Guardian ...... 343434 The global debt that Britain must pay ...... 34 October 21 - Guardian ...... 353535 The liberty agenda and the right to survive ...... 35 1992 ...... 37

4 February 10 - Guardian...... 373737 Emissions impossible ...... 37 March 2 - Guardian ...... 373737 Kamikaze growth economy ...... 37 March 9 - Guardian ...... 383838 Obscure view of the global crisis from our political penthouse ...... 38 March 20 - The Times ...... 383838 Letter to the editor ...... 38 April 9 - Guardian ...... 393939 Green card...... 39 April 21 - Guardian ...... 393939 Royal hoot on the oily road to Rio ...... 39 April 24 - Guardian ...... 404040 Scapegoats of the Third World ...... 40 May 11 - Guardian ...... 414141 Arms cuts to defend the planet ...... 41 June - The Centre For Our Common Future and the IFC ...... 424242 A Package Marked, ‘Return to Sender’...... 42 June 1992 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 424242 “Pay Now – Live Later – the Road to Rio and the UNCED” – ...... 42 June 8 - Guardian...... 464646 Opposing polluter sovereignty ...... 46 June 1212June ...... 474747 How British aid measures up in the Third World ...... 47 July - Euro Chemical News - Environment Reviewevieweview ...... 484848 Green Rights for all; the earth view ...... 48 August 14 - The Guardian ...... 535353 Stop sniping, save the planet ...... 53 August 17 - Guardian ...... 545454 Mind big mother, not little brother ...... 54 December 16 - The Guardian ...... 555555 Fighting for the air we breathe...... 55 October 1992 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 565656 “Climate Change, Population and the Paradox of Growth” -...... 56 December 1992 – GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 565656 “GDP:CO2 = B-A-U:I-O-U” – ...... 56 October 21 - Guardian ...... 575757 Survival & ‘innocence’ ...... 57 in the postmodern environment ...... 57 1993 ...... 58 March 20 - Guardian International...... 585858 Power subsidy from the poor ...... 58 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 585858 “Global Climate Change and the Noose of Equity and Survival” – ...... 58 March 22 - Inter Press Services - UN ...... 595959 LDCs footing $3.4 trillion bill for ...... 59 North’s energy practices ...... 59

5 March 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION...... 595959 “Climate Change and the Precautionary Principle”- ...... 59 May 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 616161 “Who Provides Global Benefit; who causes Global Disbenefit” – ...... 61 June 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 616161 “Making Way for Decision-Taking Under Uncertainty”- ...... 61 August 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 626262 “Joint Implementation – in a Globally Sustainable System Equity and Efficiency Converge” – ...... 62 1994 ...... 63 July - Guardian ...... 636363 Commons and goings ...... 63 June 1994 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 636363 “The Unequal Use of the Global Commons” – ...... 63 July 01 - Guardian ...... 646464 Why some lives come cheaper than others ...... 64 July 44July ...... 656565 Now we know ...... 65 July 20 - The Standard...... 656565 Industrialised nations blamed ...... 65 Juy 29 - Guardian ...... 666666 Commons people given green light ...... 66 1995 ...... 67 Planetary Connections ...... 676767 NEVER GIVE UP! ...... 67 1995 - TT1995 om WWom akakakeford and Martin Walters ISBN 0-471-95283-4 686868 “Science for the Earth”...... 68 Earth Island Journal ...... 686868 The True Cost of Climate Change ...... 68 July 23 - Independent...... 696969 One Western life is worth 15 in the Third World, says UN report ...... 69 August 3 - Nature ...... 707070 Developing countries dispute use of figures on climate change impacts ...... 70 August 3 - New Scientist ...... 717171 Global row over value of human life...... 71 October 1995 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 727272 “A Recalculation of the Social Costs of Climate Change” – ...... 72 October - ASEED Newpaper...... 737373 Is one American worth fifteen Bangladeshis? ...... 73 September 30 - New Scientist...... 747474 Costing Calamity ...... 74 November 1 - Guardian ...... 757575 Who says that life is cheap? ...... 75 November 09 - Nature ...... 787878

6 UN climate change report turns up the heat ...... 78 November 24 - Times Educational Supplement ...... 808080 Green economist faces picket ...... 80 November 30 - Nature ...... 808080 Economics of climate change ...... 80 November 30 - Nature ...... 828282 Temperature rises ...... 82 in dispute over costing climate change ...... 82 December - Appropriate Technology...... 838383 Second victory on climate economics ...... 83 1996 ...... 84 May - Climax ...... 848484 Tough… but true ...... 84 July 29 - The Big Issue ...... 888888 Global mission impossible ...... 88 November 17 - Scotland on Sunday ...... 898989 Sharing fuel is the only way to save the planet ...... 89 1997 ...... 92 February - Countryside Magazine ...... 929292 Now the big one ...... 92 March 1997 - ZEW Centre for European Economic Researchesearchesearch ...... 939393 “Man-Made Climate Change Economic Aspects and Policy Options” – ...... 93 March 13 - Nature ...... 949494 US seeks greenhouse gas cuts from the Third World ...... 94 April 2 - Guardian ...... 959595 A global gas meter ...... 95 June - Rio+5 NY ...... 969696 Linking Equity and Survival ...... 96 July - Outreach Rio+5 ...... 989898 Contraction & Convergence...... 98 November 20 - Nature ...... 999999 Equity is the key criterion for developing nations ...... 99 December - Corner House ...... 102102102 Briefing No.3 - Climate and Equity ...... 102 December 12 - Independent ...... 104104104 Now the test for Kyoto resolution ...... 104 1998 ...... 106 April - Earthwatch ...... 106106106 Energy-backed Currency Units...... 106 May - Independent ...... 108108108 Maverick musician could put a stop to global warming ...... 108 June - PPJune arliamentary Monitor ...... 109109109 An Opportunity to Correct the World’s Climate Damage ...... 109 June 19 - Guardian...... 111111111

7 Emissions that count ...... 111 November - Environment ...... 112112112 The Politics of Buenos Aires ...... 112 August 1998 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 112112112 “Climate, Justice, Development – A Policy Briefing to the Non Aligned Movement on Climate Change; the case for Global Equity” – ...... 112 November 5 - Buenos Aires...... 115115115 Global Equity is at the Heart of the Solution ...... 115 November 12 - Buenos Aires Herald ...... 118118118 Will Mandela end ‘global apartheid’? ...... 118 1999 ...... 120 March - Ecologist...... 120120120 Contraction & Convergence...... 120 June - Atmospheric Environment ...... 122122122 New Directions: Rebuilding the Climate Change Negotiations ...... 122 September 21 - Independent ...... 124124124 Paying for pollution ...... 124 September 8 - The Guardian...... 125125125 Spinning out of control ...... 125 Sustainable Development Agenda 1999 ...... 127 2000 ...... 129 Economist (The world in 2000)...... 129129129 As things hot up ...... 129 January 2000 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION...... 130130130 “Guesswork Framework” –...... 130 May 19 - Church Times ...... 131131131 Preparing to fund the world ...... 131 May - Environmental Finance ...... 132132132 Climate Change, Risk & Global Emissions Trading...... 132 June 28 - BBC online...... 137137137 The human price of Mozambique’s disaster ...... 137 August - Parliamentary Monitor ...... 138138138 “Contraction and Convergence” and the changing climate ...... 138 June - Independent ...... 141141141 Little man’s big idea could save the world ...... 141 June - ENDS Report 305305eport ...... 142142142 RCEP’s energy futures under a CO2 ceiling ...... 142 ...... 142 Summer - Corporate Watchatchatch ...... 143143143 Keeping the climate in the common treasury...... 143 December 8 - Guardian ...... 145145145 Going to war against climate change ...... 145 2001 - Chartered Insurance Institute ...... 147147147 Climate change and insurance ...... 147

8 2001 ...... 152 2001 – A BRE / LPC Publication ...... 152152152 The Implication of Climate Change for the Insurance Industry – an update and outlook to 2020...... 152 Schumacher Newsletter ...... 153153153 Global Solution to Climate Change...... 153 March - New Scientist ...... 154154154 Give us a plan ...... 154 ...... 154 April - New Scientist ...... 155155155 Bad move, Mr Bush ...... 155 April - Parliamentary Monitor ...... 156 Policing Pollution ...... 156 May - Ecologist ...... 159159159 Contraction and Convergence the global solution to climate change ...... 159 May - Prospect ...... 160160160 Fresh Air ...... 160 May - Resurgence ...... 163 A Thousand Loopholes ...... 163 June 2001 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 165165165 “Contraction and Convergence” –...... 165 ...... 165 June - RRJune esurgence...... 166166166 Climate Negotiations ...... 166 June - The Guardian ...... 168168168 Emissions that count ...... 168 July 7 - New Scientist ...... 169169169 Calling the tune ...... 169 July - The Guardian ...... 172172172 Blueprint to avert global disaster ...... 172 February 28 - BBC online ...... 175175175 Climate panel urged to ‘get real’ ...... 175 July 17 - Guardian ...... 177177177 How to rule the world ...... 177 July 23 - E-Finacne News ...... 180180180 Universities Superannuation Scheme ...... 180 July 26 - Guardian ...... 180180180 Letters ...... 180 August 2 - Commonwealth Human Ecology Council Journal...... 181181181 Why Contraction & Convergence is ...... 181 The Framework to Solve Global Climate Change ...... 181 August 23 - Al-AhramAhramAhram ...... 184184184 The Heat is on ...... 184 August 23 - Al-AhramAhramAhram ...... 188188188 Who’s talking about what? ...... 188 August - The UN Observer...... 190190190 Risk Management of Climate Change...... 190 November 30 - Finacial Times ...... 191191191

9 September 2001 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 191191191 “Contraction and Convergence” –...... 191 November - Libdem News ...... 192192192 Green Justice in a Climate of Terror...... 192 2002 ...... 193 January - New Internationalist ...... 193193193 A Parliament for the Planet ...... 193 January - New Internationalist ...... 193193193 Going Down in History ...... 193 January 15 - Euromoney.com.com.com ...... 193193193 Emissions ...... 193 February 25 - American Prospect ...... 194194194 Beyond Kyoto Lite ...... 194 March/April - Green Futures ...... 197197197 Energy...... Environment ...... 197 May 23 - Presented at the International Workshop on Oil De--- pletionpletionpletion ...... 200200200 Building Limited Fossil Energy Supplies into the World Monetary System ...... 200 June 6 - Climate Change Knowledge Network ...... 200200200 Business Perspectives - A Quickly Changing Tune...... 200 June 13 - Le Monde Diplomtique ...... 201201201 “Contraction & Convergence” The Global Framework for Solutions to Climate Change ...... 201 July 19 - World RRorld eview of Books...... 202202202 “Contraction & Convergence – the Global Solution to Climate Change” ...... 202 2002 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION ...... 205205205 “Wilton Park Slide Show” – ...... 205 August 2 - Frontline Magazine - The Hindu ...... 206206206 For climate justice ...... 206 August 23 - Church Times ...... 209209209 Anglicans urge greater concern for the earrth ...... 209 August - Open Democracy ...... 211211211 Meyer corrects Müller on C&C ...... 211 September 3 - The Times ...... 212212212 Capitalism is best way to save the planet...... 212

10 11 1989 April 17 - World Rainforest Movement PPPenang Manifesto Call to Action for Forests & their Peopleseopleseoples 1. Forests, both temperate earth, as we know it. Indeed include; - plantations both for and tropical, are an integral the scale of deforestation and industrial forestry and for part of the life-support sys- its impact now represent one export crops - ranching tems of the planet performing of the gravest emergencies schemes - dam projects - numerous ecological and ever to face the human race. commercial logging - mining social functions that are and industry - the disposses- Such consequences include: - essential for the continuation sion of peasants and indig- a loss of biological diversity on of life, as we know it on earth. enous peoples - colonization schemes - roads - Those functions in- pollution - tourism. clude; - regulating “To restructure the present climate at both regional 5. Official solutions unequal world economic system and global level - to the problem of defor- providing a habitat for which is dominated by institutions estation have ignored or the majority of species and policies that favour the devel- played down the funda- on earth - providing a oped countries at the expense of mental causes of defor- homeland and spiritual the poor of the Third World. This estation, and have basis for millions of global system at present enables instead adopted policies forest peoples - main- the developed countries to control that blame the victims taining and conserving and use an overwhelming and of deforestation for their soils -regulating hydro- disproportionately high share of plight, while simultane- logical cycles and the world's natural resources. A ously pursuing 'solu- ensuring water sup- fairer and more equitable eco- tions' that can only plies. result in the further nomic system is fundamental to degradation of forests 2. The continuing any strategy for saving and regen- and croplands through loss of the world's erating the world's forests. “ the promotion of indus- forests now constitutes trialized forestry. a global emergency. Specifically such policies In temperate areas, the an unprecedented scale - the include; - The Tropical For- bulk of primary forests has destruction of forest-based estry Action Plan (T-FAP), as been destroyed. What re- societies -increasing floods, promoted by the World Bank, mains is being lost to logging droughts, soil-erosion and the UN Food and Agriculture and acid rain and other pollut- desertification - the disruption Organization (FAO), the UN ants. - In tropical areas, of climatic equilibrium and the Development Programme forests are disappearing at a acceleration of global warming (UNDP) and others - sustain- rate of 100 acres a minute or - an increase of impoverish- able yield commercial logging, more. Moreover, the rates of ment and famine among rural as promoted by the Interna- destruction are increasing, populations. tional Timber Trade Agree- and, on current trends, little 4. Deforestation is the ment (ITTA) - policies to zone will be left by the year 2040. inevitable result of the current the forests - the commerciali- 3. The immediate and social and economic policies sation and privatisation of long-term consequences of being carried out in the name biological diversity, as pro- global deforestation threaten of development. moted through the Interna- the very survival of life on tional Biodiversity Programme Such policies and practices

12 - pollution control pro- peoples, peasants and local To revise radically the policies grammes that are directed communities, planting only of those agencies that cur- towards managing specific the choice of trees and plants, rently finance the projects and pollutants rather than reduc- with the aim of restoring practices causing deforesta- ing the source of pollution. ecological diversity and the tion. Funding for such projects survival of indigenous socie- should be ceased and instead 6. Throughout the world, ties - to restrain the over- directed towards projects that the victims of these policies consumption and wastage of promote the protection and are taking action to arrest resources by the world's regeneration of forests. The deforestation and reverse the privileged groups through agencies involved include the process of destruction. In making the necessary multi-lateral aid agencies and Sarawak, Amazonia, the changes in life-style and banks such as the World Himalayas, Thailand, the consumption patterns consist- Bank, the Inter American Philippines and elsewhere, ent with the development of Development Bank, the Asian people are standing up to sustainable livelihoods Development Bank, the UN protect the forests and their throughout the globe, in order Food and Agriculture Organi- societies. Such people have to satisfy the ecological, zation and the UN Develop- proved that they are able to spiritual, social and aesthetic ment Programme, the over- use the forests in the only needs of people everywhere. seas aid agencies of the way that is compatible with developed countries and their preservation. It is they, 8. Specifically, we call on major international coopera- not corporations, aid agencies the United Nations and na- tion; or banks, which should be - tional governments: entrusted with designing and To implement a programme To empower forest peoples implementing the protection for regenerating degraded and those who depend upon and regeneration of the forest forest lands and reinvigorating the forests for their livelihood wealth of the planet. local cultures through the with the responsibility for agency and under the direc- 7. The victims of the safeguarding the forests and tion of forest peoples; development process, along ensuring their regeneration with those concerned with by; - (a) achieving land secu- To take immediate steps to their fate and the fate of the rity both through revising curb wastage, misuse and earth, therefore call upon the land-tenure legislation over-consumption of timber United Nations and national through land reform, as products; governments: recommended in the To take immediate steps to Brundtland Report, (b) ensur- To declare the preservation of cut down the consumption of ing forest people have the the remaining tropical forests beef imported from tropical right to a decisive voice in of the earth to be a global forest areas; formulating policies for their imperative and to subordinate areas, (c) correcting social To take immediate steps to political and economic consid- and economic policies based reduce atmospheric pollution erations to achieving the on the assumed cultural and to eliminate those pollut- overriding goal of their preser- superiority of non-forest ants responsible for forest die- vation - to restore ecological peoples; back at source, both through justice and integrity to hu- improved technologies and manity by returning to the To halt all those practices and through changes in current millions of people who both projects which would contrib- patterns of consumption and live in the forests and who ute either directly or indirectly also production; depend on it, their right to a to further forest loss. Such sustainable livelihood - to projects would include planta- To restructure the present restore ecological justice and tion schemes, dams, mining, unequal world economic integrity to life on earth ranching schemes and indus- system which is dominated by through ceasing further forest trial projects, commercial institutions and policies that destruction and regenerating logging, Tropical Forestry favour the developed coun- damaged forest lands through Action Plan (T-FAP), UN tries at the expense of the the guidance of indigenous Biodiversity Programme etc. poor of the Third World. This global system at present

13 enables the developed coun- nated to social and ecological Foundation (The Philip- tries to control and use an ends. pines), The Indonesian overwhelming and dispropor- NGO’s Network for Forest This is the text of ‘The New tionately high share of the Conservation— SKEPHI York Declaration’ (delivered world's natural resources. A (Indonesia), Japan Tropi- 19/9/1989 to the UN). It is fairer and more equitable cal Forest Action Network effectively the ‘Penang Mani- economic system is funda- (Japan), Monitor Consor- festo’ or the first step in the mental to any strategy for tium (USA), National preparation of ‘’A Forest saving and regenerating the Wildlife Fed. (USA), Probe Peoples’ Charter’ world's forests. International (Canada), Supporting Organizations – Project for Ecological To initiate a global shift to- Recovery (Thailand), wards developing sustainable ABEN REDES (Nicaragua), Rainforest Action Network livelihoods. The basic goals of Americans for Indian (USA), Rainforest Infor- such a shift would be develop- Opportunity (USA), Bank mation Centre (Australia), ing systems of production that Information Centre (USA), Reforest the Earth (UK), are ecologically and socially Cultural Survival (USA), Research Foundation for sustainable. This will require; Development GAP (USA), Science and Ecology (In- - reducing the scale at which Earth Island Institute dia), Sahabat Alam (Ma- production is carried out and (USA), ECOROPA, The laysia), Survival Interna- adopting practices which Ecologist (UK), Environ- tional (UK), Third World minimize the impact of pro- mental Defence Fund, (Uruguay), Uniao das duction on the environment; - Forest Peoples Support Nacoes Indigenas (Brazil). maximizing local self-suffi- Group (UK) Friends Com- ciency; - assuring that eco- mittee for Nat-ional Legis- nomic activities are subordi- lation (USA), Friends of the Earth (Brazil), Haribon

November 3 - Guardian Last chance to save the rainforests We delivered the following meeting of the General As- Britain may justifiably claim to letter to Mrs. Margaret sembly of the UN to draw up be making a contribution to Thatcher yesterday. an emergency action plan to the great imperatives of halt and indeed reverse the cultural reappraisal now upon On September 19th a peti- continued destruction of the us all. tion entitled “An Emergency world’s tropical rain forests, Call to Action for the Forests When you address the UN on one of the gravest threats and their Peoples” was pre- November 8th on behalf of all ever to face humankind. sented to UN Secretary Gen- the people of this country, we eral Mr Perez de Cuellar. This When you spoke to your party believe you ought to make it campaign was initiated two conference at Blackpool on your opportunity to endorse years ago by ECOROPA and October 13th you spoke of the campaign and join Britain the UK’s Ecologist magazine. global warming and climate with those countries which Three million three hundred change and presented the have already done so. thousand supporting signa- view that “Britain has taken Whilst you promote the view tures collected in he UK, the lead and will continue to that environmental problems Europe and around the world do so.” are solved through “prosper- were delivered to Mr de The Ecologist/ECOROPA ity-created-technology” - Cuellar in three wheelbarrows campaign (not to mention the dismissing “a return to some by Ecologist editor Edward work of the Green/Ecology village-life” - this is nonethe- Goldsmith and colleagues. movement over the last 20 less an opportunity for you to All asked for an emergency years), are examples of how endorse the rights, as we all

14 do, of those people around James O’Connell (Depart- London), John Gribben the world to maintain their ment of Peace Studies, (Writer), Reinhard indigenous way of life without University of Bradford), Dr Buttikofer (MP, West the threat of ruin from intru- Mick Kelly, Prof Tim German Green Party), sive opportunistic develop- O’Riordan (University of Ralph Burk (West German ment and exploitation. This East Anglia), Prof G. A. Green Party). would clearly go some to Cohen (Chichele Professor making credible your claim of Social and Political that you really are responsive Theory, All Souls’ College, (to use your own words): - “to Oxford), Brian Barry (Pro- something deeper in us, an fessor of Political Science, innate sense of belonging and LSE, Latin American Bu- sharing life in a world that we reau), Stephen Corry have not fully understood.” (Director General Survival International), Dr Caroline Aubrey Meyer, Sara Parkin Lucas, Jo Steranka, Nick (Int. Liaison Secr. Green Anderson (Co-Chairs, The Party UK), David Bellamy, Green Party), Fern Morgan Jean Lambert (Speaker Grenville (ECOROPA UK), Green Party: UK), Edward Diana Schumacher Goldsmith Agnes Bertrand (Schumacher Society), Liz (ECOROPA Europe), Hosken (Trustee, Gaia Nicholas Hilldyard (Ecolo- Foundation), Peter de la gist Magazine), Jonathan Cour (Green College), Porritt (Director, Friends Alexander Goldsmith, Dr of the Earth), Paul Ekins, Alan Carter (University of

November 09 - Kilburn Times Green Campaigners deliver letter to P M Well-known Green campaign- ples and global warming.” part of a Channel Four docu- ers delivered an open letter to mentary about the rainforest “I was just plain livid at the Prime Minister last week campaign. Margaret Thatcher’s claim urging her to help save the that Britain leads the world world’s rain forests. on environmental matters. The letter was the brainchild It is only due to the slog- of Brent Green Party member ging of the Greens over the Aubrey Meyer. It called on her last 20 years that Green to use her address to the issues are on the agenda United Nations next Wednes- at.” day to join the worldwide He toured Brent collecting demand for an emergency signatures for the letter and debate on the fate of the rain then persuaded famous forest. environmental campaigners Mr. Meyer explained: like TV naturalist David Bellamy and Friends of the “I wrote the letter to Mrs. Earth director Jonathan Porritt Thatcher because we all to add their names. Several of share great anxieties about them joined Mr Meyer to hand the destruction of the over the letter last Thursday rainforests and their peo- and the event was filmed for

15 November 23 – Kilburn Times Annihilation

You reported our petition to of forest peoples and global Downing Street on the world’s warming must involve: - rainforests (November 9th - A halt to commercial exploi- edition). tation of the rainforests; Speaking to the UN General - Recognition of the landown- Assembly on November 8th ership and residence rights of Mrs. Thatcher rejected world- forests dwellers; wide calls for an emergency UN debate, announcing in- - Worldwide awareness that stead UK funding for the the main agents of forest World Bank’s ineffective destruction are the multina- Tropical Forestry Action Plan. tionals and Third World gov- While admitting the urgency ernments and the World of the problem of deforesta- Bank; tion and global warming the - Following the example of Prime Minister ignored the West Germany and the Neth- plight of the forest peoples. erlands the rich countries She argued in favour of a should stop importing tropical “business-as-usual” approach timber; that has annihilated and displaced millions of forest - Strong government action people, devastated Third should be taken to cut green- World environments, done house gas emissions by nothing for developing coun- industry and motor vehicles. tries’ economies and lined the We hope that concerned pockets of big business. Any people will write to their MPs. plan that seeks to conserve the Prime Minister and the the rainforests and their Foreign and Environment peoples must prohibit indus- Secretaries to express their trial logging from untouched dissatisfaction with current UK forest land. government policy. The import of luxury tropical Aubrey Meyer hardwood by rich countries is Miles Litvinoff immoral. We don’t need the Brent Green Party wood and we should leave it where it is needed to sustain the living environment and help save the planet from the greenhouse effect. Why has the UK government refused to support the freeze on green- house gas emissions agreed this month in die Netherlands by more than 60 nations and done nothing to restrict the rape of Third World environ- ments by Western industry? We believe that a solution to deforestation, the destruction

16 1990 January - BBC Wildlifeildlifeildlife How to tell the green from the camouflage

Guest Editorial By Aubrey natural forests by indigenous massive dams, mining, oil Meyer peoples was virtually ignored. extraction, ranching or plant- (In Oct. 89, it was reported ing—the local peoples had On 8 November, in the course from Thailand that, because just taken it into their heads of her famous environmental of T-FAP and other factors, up to create Armageddon. address to the UN General to six million forest-dwellers Assembly, Mrs. Thatcher would have to be ‘relocated’.) But the forests and their pledged £100 million to the peoples have lived together in Tropical-Forestry Action Plan The text that states T-FAP’s harmony since, most prob- (T-FAP). In the next day’s aims is ripe with the concern ably, Adam left Eden - and headlines this was character- so often expressed in recent certainly well before Jesus ised as ‘£100 million to save centuries by missionaries and threw the money-lenders out rainforests’, but in fact it was commercial interests - “to of the temple. A lot of the a grand snub to the 3.3 improve the lives of local Indians have never heard of million people who petitioned peoples,” who, as usual, money. Now they are blamed the United Nations last Sep- weren’t consulted about and made the victims of tember for an emergency whether their lives needed debate on the deforestation crisis. T-FAP, an $8 billion pro- gramme conceived and pro- moted by the World Bank and associated UN aid agencies, is ostensibly concerned with ecosystems and the needs of indigenous peoples, and its stated aims are the promotion of agro-forestry, increasing firewood supply, reforesting upland watersheds, conserv- ing forests and increasing the bureaucracy needed for improving. In setting up the sustainable forest develop- implementation. action plan, bankers, eco- ment’, where agro-forestry, But only 8% of the original nomic strategists and top cash-cropping and price-is- 1985 budget was allocated for government officials met in right logging are being pro- conserving ecosystems. The secret and devised their moted to co-ordinate human rest was for industrial use, classic ‘top-down’ forest needs’, not to mention ena- agro-forestry, bureaucracy, management strategy. bling Third World countries to ‘land use’ and so on. By 1988, The familiar bias obtained. service their debt repayments. 42 of the countries which had The victims were, in fact, the But now we’ve started to drawn up national T-PAPs had culprits, who were burning recognise that everything refused to make any commit- their forests down: deforesta- really is connected to every- ment at all to eco-system tion had nothing to do with thing else, that the forests preservation, and the use of and their peoples are inti-

17 mately connected with the tween 60 million and 300 misuse and over-consumption balance of the world’s million refugees from environ- of timber products generally. weather systems and the mental disaster zones could These and many other sug- amelioration of global warm- be on the move. gestions were all designed to ing. Before she went to ad- subordinate economic inter- The petition, which was dress the General Assembly, ests to social and ecological launched in The Ecologist in Mrs. Thatcher received an ones. July 1987 and was organised open letter to this effect. It by the pan-European environ- The campaign goes on. A was signed by many promi- mental group ECOROPA, was charter for the forest peoples nent environmentalists and intended as a way of high- is being prepared, and peti- academics, and it was deliv- lighting the extreme danger of tion signatures are still coming ered to her by a delegation the continued destruction of in. In two years we present comprising Edward Goldsmith the rainforests and the tragic the plea again. Although it of The Ecologist maga- seems to be happening in zine, David Bellamy, slow motion, this ecologi- Jean Lambert, Koy cal crisis has inducements Thompson of Friends of For 15 years, Aubrey such as a T-FAP pushing the Earth, Robin Meyer was viola player in it forward to disaster. Hanbury Tenison of various orchestras around the Survival International world, ending up as freelance This planet needs inten- and Dr David Clark, extra in the London Philhar- sive care. To help, please Labour spokesman on monic Orchestra. His score contact ECOROPA-UK, Crickhowell Powys, Wales food, agriculture and for the Standard Award-winning rural affairs. 18 ITA. We need millions ballet Choros has been per- of signatures and the The letter, which was formed in the UK and the US. attention of the world also published in full in Other interests are writing media - all focused on the the Guardian, requested poetry, building furniture and UN in 1992. that Britain be included green politics. Occasionally, among the countries when really provoked he insti- which, along with 3.3 million (now 3.5 million) gates projects such as the petitioners, are calling open letter to Downing for an emergency UN debate on deforestation. Instead, she ignored that plight of the indigenous opportunity, reaffirmed her peoples. At first, a million belief in let-it-be (the future’s signal were being sought, but not ours to see) economics, they snow-balled unpredict- and actually attacked green ably to 3.3 million by the time philosophy. the petition was delivered to Perez de Cuellar, the UN Since then, Sir lan Lloyd, a Secretary-general, last Sep- senior Conservative and tember. It calls for land secu- chairman of the all-party rity for forest peoples, a voice Commons energy committee, for them in policy making, has said that the Prime Minis- preservation of their rural ter’s faith in science to point values, a halt to all projects the way is misplaced. He has contribute to loss of forest indicated the need to prepare (including dams, plantations, public opinion for worst-case ranches, mining, logging, environmental scenarios now. industrial projects and T-FAP), Earlier in the year, Sir Crispin funding for forest regenera- Tickell, UK ambassador to the tion, a ban on natural forest UN, suggested that, within the timber imports and a curb on lifetime of our children, be-

18 February - Geographical Magazine The Campaign Continues By Aubrey Meyer hensive Briefing Document Mrs Thatcher did not reply which pointed out that ‘the to the letter, but in the course The present Government has continuing loss of the World’s of her speech a few days later, been lauded for pledging £100 Tropical Rainforests now she made plain her under- million to ‘save the rainfor- constitutes a Global Emer- standing of the deforestation ests’. In reality however, the gency’. crisis by donating UK £100 Tropical Forestry Action Plan million to the World Bank’s to which the money has been Since that date Austria and Tropical Forestry Action Plan donated has a classic top- Germany have supported the (T-FAP). down resource management call and Colombia, with an strategy which ignores the initiative of remarkable vision, However, the T-FAP has real need for land rights for has declared an area of its been extensively criticized by dispossessed and threatened Amazon rainforest territory environmentalists around the forest dwellers. It chooses to (larger than the UK - at the world since its publication in concentrate on the industriali- current rate approximately a 1987. Although the problems sation of the forests. year’s worth of destruction) to of and surrounding deforesta- be protected in perpetuity, tion are intricate, emotive and This campaign, Save the granting full land-rights to the complex, the reason for this Forests and their Peoples, was indigenous forest-dwellers criticism in essence is very begun in 1987 by the Ecolo- recognizing them as the true simple: the primary orienta- gist magazine and the Pan- and natural Guardians of the tion of the plan is the industri- European Ecological grouping Forests. alization and commercializa- ECOROPA. Launched in the tion of the forests. Whilst July 1987 edition of the Ecolo- Before Mrs Thatcher went recognizing the problems of gist and drawing attention to give her ‘Green’ speech at deforestation as the loss of a vigorously to the causes and the UN on 8 November 1989, resource base, both material the extent of the deforestation she received an open letter and ecological, the architects crisis, the call was for An co-signed by more than 30 of T-FAP failed to address the Emergency Meeting of the prominent environmentalists real causes of deforestation, General Assembly of the and academics. It requested the full extent of the devasta- United Nations (see Geo- that she join Britain with tion and the global graphical, January 1990). It those countries and the 3.3 destabilization of the bio- was sent out worldwide and million petitioners who have sphere as a whole. As the accompanied by proposals for called for the emergency Ecologist/ECOROPA briefing appropriate action. The hope debate. With cross-party document stated somewhat was to present a million representation, it was deliv- starkly, ‘forests, both temper- signatures of support for ered to her by a delegation of ate and tropical are an inte- presentation at the UN. Edward Goldsmith (Editor of gral part of the life-support the Ecologist magazine), Two years later, on 19 Sep- systems of the planet, per- David Bellamy, Jean Lambert tember 1989, during which forming numerous ecological of the Green party, Koy time another 100,000 square and social functions that are Thompson (forest campaigner kilometres of primary tropical essential to the continuation for Friends of the Earth), rainforest were destroyed, an of life as we know it on earth’. Robin Hanbury Tenison (Direc- almost ‘miraculous’ 3.3 million Emphasis was given to the tor General of ‘Survival Inter- signatures were delivered regulation of both local and national’) and Dr David Clark personally to the UN General global climate and the integral (Labour Shadow Spokesman Secretary Perez de Cuellar in role that the forests play in on Food, Agriculture and Rural front of the eyes of the world hydrological cycles. Affairs). It was also published press; the ‘Emergency Call to in the Guardian with the full The t-FAP by contrast, ignored Action for the Forests and list of co-signatories. this dimension altogether and their Peoples’ had arrived. It trivialized the pre-eminent and was supported by a compre-

19 destructive role played by the ment Programme (UNDP) and allocation are something of a massive development projects the World Resources Institute ‘self-indictment’: 25 percent such as dams, highways, (WRI), a meeting was held in for ‘industrial use’; 30 percent mining operations and planta- private in Bellagio, Italy, in for agro-forestry; 20 percent tions, often funded by various 1987 between top officials of for ‘bureaucracy’ with ten development banks including these bodies to agree and percent for ecosystem preser- the World Bank itself. They publish the results of a two- vation (1.5 percent in Latin tended rather to shift the year deliberation aimed at America). They have subse- blame for the destruction onto saving the forests. The task- quently talked about promot- the landless farmers, expedi- force that prepared the plan ing the ‘conservation and ently making the victims the consisted of the Head of the management of samples of culprits. Whilst these victims, largest paper company in the eco-systems as reservoirs of often farmers, are indeed Philippines, a former chief species diversity’. amongst the major agents of scientist of Britain’s Agricul- It is not only the extent to deforestation, many have ture Ministry, the President of which T-FAP planners failed to been forcibly displaced off Canada’s Council of Forest recognize primary causation their own lands to make way Industries, The World Bank’s and the consequent guarantee for development. Forestry Advisor, a senior of continuity in the forest- forestry official from the US Under these circumstances destruction process; it is not government and advisors on they have no choice other only their short-term commer- environment and forestry to than to start again some- cial strategizing and the the governments of Brazil, where else, and this is one of perpetuation of myths such as Malaysia, India and Nepal. T- the contributing causes to ‘benign’ development; it is not FAP’s stated ‘key ingredient of slash and bum. There are even their bias against the active participation by the other causes directly proceed- opinions, needs and rights of millions of small farmers and ing from ranching and various the virtually defenceless, landless forms of cash cropping, not to indigenous forest peoples, but mention certain ‘sustainable The T-FAP trivialized the especially this supremely logging’ activities. The Inter- destructive role played by arrogant ‘specimen-mentality’ national Tropical Timber massive development projects which almost envisages and Organization’s own report on shifting the blame onto the may now even tragically ‘Natural Forest Management landless farmers. They made presage, the obliteration of for Sustained Timber Produc- the victims the culprits, peo- the forests and their peoples tion’ concluded that there had ples who daily use the forests as a preliminary to the col- been a success rate of .00125 and trees to meet their needs’ lapse of the life-maintaining percent. The Queensland seemed poorly sup-ported by systems of global ecology. It Forestry department finally the composition of the task- is to this plan that Mrs had to abandon all logging in force -an elite of ‘top-down’ Thatcher has just committed an open recognition of the planners inclined to dismiss £100 million. unsustainability’ of logging grass-roots opposition as Of course this is alarming. In practices. However there ‘emotional’. They were cer- the more general area of the remains the root-cause of the tainly vehemently criticized by ‘greenhouse-effect’ to which ‘landlessness’ of displaced environmentalists and the the destruction of the rainfor- peoples. This is what charac- grass-roots affected around ests is a major positive con- terizes the Ecologist/ the world for having devised a tributor - Sir lan Lloyd (Chair ECOROPA proposals and strategy which ignored the of the all-party Commons makes the Colombian initiative real need for land rights for energy committee) has indi- a mould-breaking precedent. the dispossessed and threat- cated the pressing need to The commercial orientation of ened forest dwellers, concen- ‘prepare public opinion for T-FAP was perhaps inevitable. trating instead on the ‘indus- worst-case environmental Convened by the World Bank, trialization’ of the forests scenarios’. He suggested the The Food and Agricultural themselves. With a contem- Prime Minister’s faith in the Organization of the UN (FAO), plated $8 billion to spend, incontrovertible evidence of the United Nations Develop- their own figures for budget- science to point the way is

20 misplaced. the survival of the rainforest only to endorse but also to be as do forest dwellers them- active in the campaign. The Ecologist/ECOROPA selves. campaign goes on. The call Petition forms are contained in for an Emergency Debate will The Overseas Development this issue of Geographical. continue asking for ‘open’ Administration (ODA) replied Please respond. discussion of these problems to the letter on Mrs. Thatch- The full text of the Brief- where the views of the grass- er’s behalf, admitting that the ing Document which ac- roots and the NGOs con- T-FAP is flawed and has companied the petition to cerned will be heard. The encouraged forest destruction. the UN is also available campaign aims to present in Nevertheless, the govern- from the Ecologist (phone excess of 30 million signatures ment’s stated aim remains 0258 73476) price £5.00. worldwide supporting the call ‘the recapitalization of the The Rainforest Survival for both natural balance and world’s forests’ and the pro- poster, is available from ecological justice to be re- motion of T-FAP However, at a Ecotrade at 12, Elbow established in the rain-forests, recent quarterly meeting of Cottages, Haughton, the lives of the peoples who the Euro Greens in Brussels, Newark on Trent, NG24 live there, the plans of the 26 national green parties 3RW. development agencies and the (including, for the first time, hopes of all of us who ulti- those from Eastern Europe) mately depend as much on took a unanimous decision not

June 15 - Guardian ‘‘‘The leagues of cruel numbers’ Who should be blamed for by the first and third worlds. Germany, the United Kingdom the greenhouse effect? Adding carbon dioxide, meth- and other developed nations. John Vidal on the growing ane and chloro-fluoro-carbon Another table, however, has battle of statistics (CFC) emissions, it lists coun- been extrapolated from these tries by their volume of emis- figures by environmentalists THE independent World sions based on 1987 figures. who argue that the UN figures Resources Institute based in Here the US and the USSR are biased in favour of the Washington has published a come in first and -second first world because they report for the United Nations place. Brazil, China and India universalise the blame for which sets out what amounts follow ahead of Japan, West greenhouse warming. to the first full league table of greenhouse gas emitting nations. It is a significant contribution to the debate about global warming because it is the first time that com- bined figures for all the three main greenhouse gases haven been compared country by country. Sponsored by the UN Environ- ment and the UN Develop- ment programmes, the re- port’s figures (see chart first column) show that green- house warming gases are emitted in almost equal parts

21 Aubrey Meyer, who is lobbying that the West favours able to afford to cut back the UN’ for an emergency schemes whereby countries on emissions? Clearly the debate on deforestation, has pick up the burden, according biggest polluters have the divided the figures by to their emissions - whatever biggest GNPs, and lower populations to arrive at a per their ability to pay. league countries by com- capita league table. (See parison have little or no Meyer says: table, right). This finds China money. If, as the US and and India for example, drop- “When per capita emissions others implied recently, ping into 24th and 25th place are compared it shows a reducing greenhouse emis- and the United States in First World energy con- sions is too expensive for fourth place behind Canada, sumer generates on aver- them to pay for, clearly Ivory Coast and Brazil. The age three tonnes of these addressing the assumptions general affect, he says, move emissions per annum in favour of the continuous first world countries up the compared with a Third economic growth which league table. World consumer who gen- created this problem in the erates 0.7 tonnes per first place is an urgently The battle of statistics is annum. necessary exercise.” politically important because potential solutions to the The UN version is a scurril- A spokesman at the Depart- problem is to will be argued ous number crunching way ment of the Environment on the different figures. of dissociating the issue of yesterday said, “At this culpability. The three tonnes stage league tables do not Poorer countries say that the per person in the west help. There are real anoma- west has exported pollution compared to 0.7 tonnes in lies if you look at simple with its technology, and it is the third world is absolutely figures. What we are urging up to the rich to pay to clean fundamental because the people to do is prepare up the mess made by each of bottom line in this crisis is national studies.” its citizens. Mrs. Thatcher and personal responsibility. If President Bush, however, have per capita GNP for the already stated that the argu- countries listed is compared ments should not be based on (see chart, extreme right) who is responsible or who the issue of who should pay should pay, which, in turn has for arresting global warming been interpreted as meaning begs the question who is

June 18 - Guardian Climate change; urgent message to the worldworldworld SAVE the Forests Save the that to stabilise atmospheric or below this threshold figure, Planet has drafted this state- concentrations requires a and their emissions contribute ment to the climate change reduction to less that 40 only 90 per cent of the non- negotiators whose talks start percent of current levels. On forcing total. They therefore in Geneva tomorrow: - We average each person to the provide the equivalent of a 10 acknowledge with concern world contributes 1.65 metric percent credit, which is taken that climate change through tonnes of carbon and equiva- up by the rest of the world. human enhanced global lents (MTCE) each year. 40 This inequity is particularly warming is a real and growing per cent of this figure - 0.86 unacceptable at a time when threat and is caused by the MTCE represents each indi- the majority of people are emissions of long-lived green- vidual’s output threshold for struggling to meet basis house gases from human forcing future climate change. human needs. activities. At least 63 per cent of the It is also unacceptable as the The Intergovernmental Panel people in the world produce forcing emissions total is on Climate Change advises greenhouse gas emissions at derived largely from unsus-

22 tainable, luxury-based activi- ment Protection; Jim Telkaemper, Vice-Presi- ties in countries one of whose Berreen, Green Party; dent European Parlia- governments has still refused Danyal Sattar, New Eco- ment; Dafydd Wigley, Dr even the principle of setting nomics Foundation; Ben Dafydd Ellis Thomas, targets for CO2 emissions Jackson, World Develop- (Plaid Cymru). GUI Shep- stabilisation, let alone reduc- ment Movement; Sir Rich- herd, Social Forestry tion. ard Body (Con); Tony Network (ODI); Ann Benn (Lab); Richard Holt Clwyd, Shadow Minister, We believe that all people (Con); Brent Blackwelder, ODA; Penny Kemp; present and future should Friends of the Earth USA; Malcom Harper, UNA; have rights to life and sustain- Teddy Goldsmith, The Stephen Bristow, SOS able livelihoods which are free Ecologist; Janet Alty Sahel Int.; Ann Taylor, from the threat and the (UKGP); Roland Morgan, Shadow Minister, Environ- reality of human induced Planet News; Mike ment Protection; Jim climate disruption. Ferrigan, PO, Green Party; Berreen, Green Party; We stress that the responsi- Jane Taylor (GP Cllr.); Niki Danyal Sattar, New Eco- bility for taking corrective Kortvelyessey, Tony nomics Foundation; Ben action and reducing bad Cooper (GP); Joe Farman; Jackson, World Develop- practice lies with those who Paddy Ashdown (Lib Dem) ment Movement; Sir Rich- created and who ard Body (Con); Tony continue to exacer- Benn (Lab); Richard bate this global crisis. Holt (Con); Brent Drafted by Jim Berreen Blackwelder, Friends We demand that their and Aubrey Meyer, this was response should be of the Earth USA; immediate and with- republished at the Earth Summit Teddy Goldsmith, out prevarication, and in June 1992 with many more The Ecologist; Janet should take special signatures. Alty (UKGP); Roland action over this issue Morgan, Planet of social inequity. [See - http://www.gci.org.uk/signon/ News; Mike Ferrigan, OrigStatement2.pdf]. PO, Green Party; Anyone wishing to Jane Taylor (GP sign this statement In the IPCC and at the UNFCCC, Cllr.); Niki should contact: - it became the basis for GCI to: - Kortvelyessey, Tony Aubrey Meyer. - quantify the Ecological Debt Cooper (GP); Joe Farman; Paddy Save the Forests (1991/93) Save the Planet, Ashdown (Lib Dem) 42 Windsor Road, - rebut the Climate Cost/Benefit Simon Hughes, Lib. London NW25DS Analysts * (1993/95) Dem. Environment spokesman; Marcus Colchester, - establish “Contraction & Con- Margaret Ewing, World R’forest vergence” (1995/2002) (SNP); lan Flindall Movement; Chad (UKGP); Lord Dobson, Bank Info Stoddart of Swindon; Ctr. (Washington); Baroness Ewert George Marshall, London Biggs, Opp. Spokes- R’forest Action Group; Simon Hughes, Lib. Dem. man for Overseas Devel- Paul Elkins; DrGUI Shep- Environment spokesman; opment; John Valentine, herd, Social Forestry Margaret Ewing, (SNP); David FitzPatrick (GP); Network (ODI); Ann lan Flindall (UKGP); Lord Wilfried Telkaemper, Vice- Clwyd, Shadow Minister, Stoddart of Swindon; President European Par- ODA; Penny Kemp; Baroness Ewert Biggs, liament; Dafydd Wigley, Malcom Harper, UNA; Opp. Spokesman for Over- Dr Dafydd Ellis Thomas, Stephen Bristow, SOS seas Development; John (Plaid Cymru). Sahel Int.; Ann Taylor, Valentine, David Shadow Minister, Environ- FitzPatrick (GP); Wilfried

23 1991 GCI at INC-2 1991

THE NORTH MUST ACKNOWLEDGE

AND SETTLE ITS ACCUMULATED

CARBON DEBT

Cutting fossil fuel emissions is an ecological world's climate to change. This is not just and political imperative - not just an option'. dangerously immoral, it is deluded. Catastrophic climate change can only be The prime example is the United States, which averted by emissions restraint. plans to increase its C02 emissions by 15% It is impossible - morally, politically, technically over the next decade. This is committing the and physically - to make developing countries whole world to increased risk of ecological pay the bill for the continuation of havoc, and to increased tension between unsustainable over-development in the nations. industrialised countries of the North. Developing countries have the historical role of The Organisation for Economic Cooperation insisting that the North puts its own house in and Development OECD) now openly advocate order on its own territory. This is the pre- a climate policy which violates both the equal condition of an ecologically sustainable future. rights and the equal survival rights of the huge Development cannot be called sustainable majority of the world's people who live in unless C02 emissions are restricted to what developing countries and are not causing the the civilised biosphere can tolerate.

Consider these well documented facts: - Historically, 95 of industrial C02 emissions have come from the North. C02 from human activities was responsible for 72 of the global warming set in train during the 1980's. Approximately 80 of current C02 emissions comes from the industrial burning of fossil fuel. This takes place overwhelmingly in the North. When national industrial emissions are analysed on a per capita basis, it can be seen that only the nations of the North are causing global warming, with the South actually subsidising this behaviour. Analysing historically on a per capita basis, the North has already used up all its own emissions "rights" and can only stay in business by appropriating the rights of others. By refusing restraint the USA is destroying the fundamental rights of others to survive. The IPCC has recently reaffirmed that immediate 60 - 80 cuts in C02 emissions are necessary to stabilise atmospheric C02 concentrations at 1990 levels. To compensate for 60 of current industrial C02 emissions through reforestation would require the use of an area two thirds the size of China for a rolling programme of continuous tree-planting. Even this assumes that all converted carbon would remain permanently sequestered. Reforestation is no kind of a solution to global warming, as was recognised as long ago as January 1990 in the Sao Paulo Declaration on Climate and Forests made by the IPCC/AFOS working group. The declaration clearly states: - "Although forests can assist in mitigating the effects of atmospheric carbon build-up, the problem is essentially a fossil fuel one and must be addressed as such. No agreements on global climate change will be reached without commitments by developing countries on greenhouse gas emissions." The bar chart overleaf confirms this judgement. To produce it the Global Commons Institute has calculated on a per capita adjusted basis, each nation's fossil fuel emissions of C02 and methane expressed as national percentages of global output. This excludes emissions from changes of land-use. The centre line of the graph represents the existing global per capita average of industrial C02 and methane emissions only. Bars to the right show percentages of above average emissions contributed by each nation - the extent of each nation's carbon debit. Bars to the left show corresponding shortfalls contributed by "creditor" nations. We must emphasize that the graph says nothing about ecological sustainability because the positioning of its centre line does not reflect the requirement for a 60 – 80 overall cut in C02 emissions. It merely shows what would be required to rearrange the existing unsustainable patterns of industrial C02 and methane emissions on an equitable basis. It only represents what could be achieved if the Climate Change Convention enshrined overall emissions stabilization at current levels. Without considering historical inequities, these comparisons make clear the magnitude of the debt owed by the North to the South.

24 March - GCI Freeloading on Global Warming Benefits

How do local people in Response' to global warming unrelated to 'no-regrets', ODA Karnataka feel about a First as articulated by the UK gov- asserts that its funds to World 'carbon-fix' in the West- ernment in its White Paper on Karnataka for the Western ern Ghats? the Environment (see box). Ghats conservation project, will be a 'donation' (not a loan, UK Gov. White Paper on the (4) - Consistent with the policy not tied) and that the invest- Environment 1990. proposals developed through ment justification for the the Intergovernmental panel The SWCC 'Joint Ministerial project is complete on a re- on Climate Change, the Joint Statement' November 1990. gion-al/local cost/benefit Ministerial Statement (signed analysis only Statement from the SAP by 127 countries) from the PAULO workshop during 1PCC Second World Climate Confer- (6) - They maintain further Working Group 3 (Response ence in Geneva (Nov 1990), that there are "no tools to Strategies) deliberations - included an extensive policy assess global warming benefits January 1990 proposal on the role of 'en- and that for this reason global (1) - Climate- warming benefits destabilizing, are not considered a anthropogenically justification for the aggravated global “The part that forestry can play project." warming due to in keeping levels of CO2in the at- (7) - They also enhanced CO' emis- mosphere down is one of the rea- concede that there sions primarily from sons for Britain’s contribution to the are "methodological the developed coun- international efforts to conserve and problems" in ad- tries, is now ac- regenerate the tropical rainforests. dressing this dimen- cepted as fact. In keeping with its domestic envi- sion of environmen- tal auditing. (2) - The so-called ronmental policies, the Government 'no-regrets' philoso- wishes to see a more open and (8) - Nonetheless phy is out-of-date. It the global warming was based on the informed discussion of the T-FAP. benefits (with or orientation that (Note the Karnataka Western Ghats without the audit) environmental poli- Forest Conservation project will be are there. It would cies that addressed subsumed within India’s Tropical be disingenuous to the threat of global Forestry Action Plan when she joins suggest otherwise warming but which and disingenuous to also made good the process. This is al-ready in deny that we in the environmental sense train). “The plan needs to involve UK, as compara- locally or regionally, local people as well as the highest tively high per should be pursued levels of government in developing capita developed with the latter justifi- countries, and to place increased world polluters, are cation only. 'No emphasis on conservation.” beneficiaries of regrets if global these global warm- warming fears prove UK Gov. White Paper on the Environ- ing mitigating unfounded' ment 1990. environmental (3) - The Karnataka services. We are in Western Ghats the UK ten times - conservation project per capita - more has global warming benefits. hanced forestry' in 'carbon- responsible for the emissions Its ethos is wholly consistent fixation' in the context of of greenhouse gases than with carbon-fixing forestry 'sources and sinks' (see box). Indians. facet of the 'Global Strategic (5) - With reasoning not (9) - Considering the contro-

25 versy over forest-zoning, and lived greenhouse gas emis- consider-able degree of (unac- that zone two of the project is sions, being met with a re- knowledged) self-interest. currently anticipated to cover sponse from inter alia the UK (Loosely speaking it seems to about half of the forest total (which they repeated! charac- qualify as an example of 'tied- area 'by decree', and that zone terized as "demanding") of aid', tied that is, to the glob two will be 'basically a no-go "stabilization at current emis- warming benefits. area' for local people who sion levels within fifteen (13) - It has for UK domestic have often, if illegally, pursued years", the problems of the UK consumption, the possibly subsistence needs in this area, appearing to freeload on disingenuous status of being UK promotion of forest conser- 'global warming benefits' included in the UK portfolio of vation in Karnataka (with become more entrenched. global warming response global benefits), might come activities. The White to be viewed with Paper's response to mixed feelings by global warming the 'community' “Taking into account that the leads easily to this whose 'participation' developed world is responsible for inference. in the project has been declared a about 3/4 of all emissions of green- (14) - It has been sine-qua-non. house gases (incl. CO2) . . . we note conjectured by an that the conservation of the world’s ODA official that (10) - These prob- Karnataka Forestry lems will be exacer- forests in their role as reservoirs of Department might bated in the wake carbon ... is of considerable impor- have used the issue of the climate tance for global climatic stability . . . to bargain more aid conference where We recognize the need to reduce the money from the India particularly rate of deforestation in consonance ODA (in spite of the drew attention to official disclaimer "extravagant per with the objective of sustained yield regarding the global capita emissions in development and to enhance the warming benefits). certain parts of the potential of the world’s forests If this were true, world, and where it through improved management of there is a greater also became gener- existing forests and through vigorous likelihood that the ally evident that in programmes of reforestation and monies so raised spite of the rhetoric would have in- in the Joint Ministe- afforestation and to support finan- creased the depart- rial Statement, cially the developing countries in this ment's benefits "every time we saw regard through enhanced and well co- ahead of local the mention of the coordinated international co-operation people's benefits. main greenhouse including strengthening the T-FAP and gas CO2 the result (15) - In spite of of fossil fuel con- the ITTO.” the "lack of tool to sumption, there was The SWCC ‘Joint Ministerial State- assess global warm- no spirit of compro- ment’ November 1990. ing benefits", the mise during the benefits are unargu- negotiation process ably there. In spite with regard to even of the "methodo- the mention of the term." This (12) - It is probable that the logical problems" in developing was the on record view of the UK government will attract environmental economics to Head of the delegation from St criticism from "local people as the point where this kind of Lucia, Naresh Singh, in respect well as the highest levels of audit can be plausibly carried of setting targets for CO' government" in the "develop- out, there are pressing rea- emissions abatement. ing country" concerned for sons - within establishment placing "an increased empha- rationale - to develop these (11) - In the face of the IPCC's sis on conservation" of forests skills rapidly and apply them, call for immediate minimum 60 in a manner which has such a and to acknowledge this cuts in anthropogenic long- 'shortcoming' in the interim

26 facilitated by some additional carbon", never mind the other come rely more immediately form of compensatory re- multifarious values they and much more decisively on sponse. This will at least embody for environmental an emissions abatement ameliorate a situation in services and renewable programme domestically and which the image of 'free- produce and their uniquely one which is specifically not loading' is likely to consoli- important value as home to dependent on the 'multi- date. millions of forest-dwelling lateral only' approach cur- peoples. rently advocated by the (16) - No less important is the government. Afterall, the application of the AFOS (17) - This 'infinite' value is Climate Convention seeking rationale as expressed in the 'real' even if it defies conven- process may fail. Are we then Sao Paulo Declaration that, tional audit ing. In the ab- to go down with chimneys "the forest crisis is rooted in sence of being ascribe a finite belching or is that the mo- the agricultural sector and in value, infinite value should be ment we start claiming the the people's need for employ- assumed because it is gener- hitherto unacknowledged ment and income. Deforesta- ally suspected that their total global warming benefits of tion will be stopped only destruction would instigate forest conservation in when the natural forest is climate chaos. Karnataka afterall. The words economically more valuable (18) - Concurrently if the ODA of the Sao Paulo Declaration than alternative uses for the wish to operate as-is under (see box) seem to have a same land." The real point is the global warming disclaimer, demanding relevance to these that the forests are obviously then our strategy for amelio- issues. pre-eminently valuable "in rating climate change has to their role as reservoirs of

"Consideration of forestry issues, and of tropical forestry issues in particular, must not distract attention from the central issue of global climate change and the emission of greenhouse gases attributable to the burning of fossil fuels by devel- oped countries. No agreements on forests and global climate change will be reached, without commitments by developed countries on greenhouse gas emis- sions. The groups recognized that the conservation of tropical forests is of crucial importance for global climatic stability." "Although forests can assist in mitigating the effects of atmospheric carbon build-up the problem is essentially a fossil fuel one and must be addressed as such. In this way, and as a general principle, the final report of the present 1PCC workshop on Tropical Forests, while putting tropi- cal forests in the overall context of global warming, should make it clear that the burden of response options is not to be placed on developing countries and thus should state clearly that all countries should make a contribution to the solution of the global warming problem. The temperate forest die-back (caused by acid-rain) as analogous to tropical deforestation (caused by tropical people's attempts to satisfy basic human needs) could be specifically mentioned in such a context." Statement from the SAP PAULO workshop during 1PCC Working Group 3 (Re- sponse Strategies) deliberations - January 1990

27 April - GCI Carbon Fixing First World COCOorld 222 in 3rd WWWorld Forests, ‘Sinks without Trace’race’race’ Promoting the conservation of contribution to the interna- individuals currently emitting tropical forests has increased tional efforts to conserve and 2.64 tonnes need to reduce relevance now that dangerous regenerate the tropical rain- by 4/5 to conform: Indians human increase of global forests. "Forests are ' carbon- could nearly double their warming has been accepted sinks'. current per capita emissions as fact. Our carbon dioxide and not exceed even the IPCC Addressing 'equity', India emissions are increasing and required revised average noted "extravagantly high per forests 'fix' carbon. level. Comparing Indian/UK capita emissions in certain per capita emissions is appro- The 137 countries present at parts of the globe" in re- priate considering the 'source- the Second World Climate sponse to the Japanese sink' strategy. Britain is poised Conference in Geneva are assertion that "increased to foster tropical forest con- now engaged in the awesome population growth" is the servation in the Western task of "strategically respond- biggest threat to climate Gnats of Karnataka state in ing" to this ultimate pollution stability." And indeed, possibly India starting in 1991. £29 issue in the hope of creating a following the EC admittance million over 5/6 years will 'Climate Convention' by 1992. of the same, 'per capita' help preserve "a set of envi- Equity and restraint have reckoning is now accepted as ronmental resources of world already been recognized as a method of greenhouse gas importance. " crucial to this 'global re- emissions auditing in the Joint sponse'; equity between Ministerial Declaration. The However, ODA has said, countries of the developed trend revealed in this (see "because there are no eco- and the developing worlds, chart) is stark. With very few nomic tools for assessing and restraint of greenhouse anomalies, the developed, global-warming benefits gas emissions, primarily in the countries have very high (carbon-fixing) and there are developed world, where 3/4 levels in comparison with the methodological problems in of all such emissions origi- developing countries, ranging developing these, G-V ben- nate. say from an average US/ efits are not considered a Canada level at 4,06 tonnes justification for the project. " Inter alia, 'compensatory' per person per annum, to a What a handy short-coming; (source-sink) measures for Solomon Islander at 0.08 we are clearly beneficiaries' global warming abatement tonnes per person per an- nonetheless, especially being have also been noted in the num, or an Asian average at per capita ten times more Joint Ministerial Statement 0.46 tonnes per person per responsible for greenhouse from Geneva. "The conserva- annual. gas emissions than individual tion of the world's forests in Indians. If you can't cost it, it their role as reservoirs of The average global figure is doesn't count; sinks without carbon, is of considerable 1.28 tonnes per person per trace. QED. importance for global climatic annum, which puts 2/3 of stability." To this end, there is countries below the world This threatens the likelihood a need "to reduce the rate of average. Further, even if we of success in the convention- deforestation and to enhance reduce this figure by 60 to seeking process on climate the potential of the world's 0.512 tonnes per person per change. As the IPCC report forests through improved annum, (consistent with the states; "Consideration of management of existing IPCC requirements for forestry-issues, and tropical forests and vigorous pro- stabilization of greenhouse forestry issues in particular, grammes of reforestation and gas levels in the atmosphere must not distract from the afforestation." This, in the at present levels), it emerges central issue of global climate words of the UK White Paper that still l/3 of countries are change and the emission of on the Environment is, "one left with a margin in which to greenhouse gases attributable of the reasons for Britain's increase emissions. British

28 to the burning of fossil fuels ganizations actually petitioned that measures taken to con- by developed countries. No Mrs. Thatcher direct to with- serve and protect the forest agreements on forests and hold funding for the project. will be, or will be perceived to global climate change will be They particularly object to the be, at the expense at forest- reached, without commit- arbitrary zonation of the dwellers and forest-users." ments by developed countries forests. As currently defined, the on greenhouse gas emis- Recently the Development establishment of a ' non- sions." As we know Britain's Commissioner - a state gov- populated' zone two is ex- "demanding" commitment to ernment official of consider- pected to cover over half the "stabilize at 1990 levels by able influence -intervened, total forest area. This will be 2005" is "to do nothing within insisting that all project balanced (planners feel) by fifteen years." documents had to be shared 'Joint Forest Planning and It also threatens the kind of amongst all affected parties Management' for 'Community good will from the Karnatakan saying that the project imple- Needs' at the forest margins grass roots that project- mented "would only be one between the Forest Depart- formulation consultants have based on mutually agreeable ment and the grass- roots. now recognized to be the solutions." Fact is that a bit of money for sine-qua-non of successful So participants on both sides "measures to conserve and forest conservation. ODA square up; on the one hand protect the forests and the have been at some pains to to "the project's environmen- planet as sinks for our pollu- develop the innovatory theme tal objectives (which) cannot tion - are and will be per- of 'community participation' in be achieved except with the ceived to be, at the expense this project. Concurrently whole-hearted participation of of local forest-dwellers and local peoples' fears are riding those people whose livelihood forest-users," especially in the high because of the likelihood derives in whole or in part absence of C02 restraint here that the funding will from the forests," and on the at the source of problem. This strengthen the management other to, "the short to me- isn't exactly measure for hand of their historically dium term (where) the envi- measure, and this potentially somewhat 'sociologically- ronmental and sociological useful project is in danger of insensitive forest department. components of the project being a "free-lunch carbon- Earlier in the year the local may be in conflict, (and) fix". federation of voluntary or- there is a considerable danger

June 9th - Guardian Cold WWCold ar of Global Warmingarmingarming Your front page story While we are all experiencing In her UN speech last (Guardian June 2nd) “UN an accelerating loss of November (having just presses of Nuclear Power” is environmental status quo, doubled Britain’s contribution alarming. It is already very those favouring the political to the UNEP) Mrs. Thatcher clear that the pro-nuclear status quo are proposing reasserted that nuclear power powers are preparing to load technology that is intractable, was the answer to runaway the IPCC Climate Conference uneconomic, unsafe, and also manmade climate change with arguments that favour a a highly centralising form of saying it was – despite the switch to nuclear power as power generation in synch attitude of the so-called the ‘solution’ to the with their own political bias Greens – the most greenhouse effect crisis. The behind a façade of ‘supra- environmentally safe form of prominence you afford this is political’ environmental energy. appropriate. concern.

29 This is the perception she Lets be very clear about this – the other.” The bottom-line in assimilates from that self- they could only model overall this environmental crisis is confessed science-junkie reductions based on switching simple. This is a party-political champion of nuclear power to nuclear power because of struggle no matter how much and author of the Gaia the energy-intensive the establishment attempt to Hypothesis, Jim Lovelock, assumptions that all these depoliticise it. In the end they, who is on record as saying theoreticians and planners are neither the right nor the left, that, “in a funny way I value transfixed into projecting want seriously to address the life more than I value human because of their being captive decentralisation of power in beings.” This might be all very to the world view of industry, both sense precisely because well if (Mrs. Thatcher) had big business and the corrupt it would be ideological defeat the sense to conclude from all anti-people politics wich for them and a painful of this that valuing life (with shields them. meeting with ecological reality or without human beings) is not to mention the loss of a This was all too apparent at in no way dependent on job. the ozone conference. I spoke resuming programmes of at length to India’s Aubrey Meyer environmental roulette with Environment Minister, Maneka nuclear power. Ghandi about these concerns What about wave power that after her recent attendance at almost sank without trace the this ozone conference. after the costings were She told me the Third World doctored in Whitehall and had walked behind the West Westminster? What about the into nuclear power and she Brundtland Report conclusion needed no reminding about that “generation of nuclear the duress she was going to power is only justifiable if be under given the way the there are solid solutions to IPCC’s report was handling the presently unsolved the greenhouse effect problems to which it gives prognosis. She said that “vast rise?” amounts of the report are We should all be very wary of tailored because they say we this dangerous alliance are only going up two between power hungry degrees in heat when in politicians and the cult of Bangalore for instance we are science and the technological already up three to four fix as the solution to all degrees and the Maldives are human problems. This is shouting about sinking.” gazing at Medusa not Gaia. She accepted that not just I am surprised that Paul nuclear but also thermal and Brown did not include in his hydropower were uneconomic piece the IPCC observation and obsolete from the that those greenhouse gas moment they were set up and emissions scenarios to the said that, “we have to work year 2100 were modelled in on alternatives, nobody has the context of “an assumed seriously worked on them. decrease in economic growth Now solar is developing into a for all countries beyond the decentralised alternative and year 2000” and also in the until you decentralise power context of “population figures you can’t possibly achieve assumed to approach 10.5 anything else.” She specifically billion by the second half of confirmed to me that she next century.” meant power in both senses saying that, “one will lead to

30 July 23 - Guardian Ecological debt to the Third Worldorldorld

THE “Trinidad Initiative” is wide whose emissions are so to control their emissions of hardly an arrangement in need slight as to be within the greenhouse gases”, the UK of praise. Even if implemented guidelines to stability advised Department of the Environ- (as Mrs. Chalker knows), it will last year by the Intergovern- ment publish estimates stating reduce overall Third World mental Panel on Climate that to offset CO2 emissions indebtedness - $1.4 trillion - by Change (IPCC). with trees, tropically no more than one per cent. reafforesting an area 1.5 times Disappointingly Mrs. Chalker in Further it takes no account of the size of the UK would be a separate reply to me declined the ecological debt polluting necessary and that arresting this point and focused instead industrial economies, such as deforestation has the “consid- on developing countries limit- the G7, are running up at the erable advantage” (For whom? ing their emissions. expense of the very survival I ask). prospects of literally millions of Equal rights, (surely part of the Whilst we do not cut emis- people worldwide, most of “good governance” which Mrs. sions, we do not allow others whom live in these “indebted” Chalker advocates?), includes to cut their trees. Not a good countries. Mrs. Chalker (Letters equal rights of access to and prospect for the sustainable July 22) says G7 committing benefit from natural global development Utopia so much themselves to the principle of environmental services, such part of the ODA/DOE G7 greater debt-relief for the as atmospheric carbon re- apologia for growth. poorest countries is “very absorption by trees and seas welcome”; She does not ac- (the so-called ‘sink function’) Our ecological debt is implicit knowledge G7’s commitment to not to mention rights to a non- in this and increases everyday increase pollution, the vulner- destabilised climate and some we fail over emissions restraint. ability of the poor and our kind of a sustainable future. Delay also hastens the onset of ecological indebted-ness to We are literally ecologically in ecological trauma and the them, or the extent to which debt to people whose low “inevitable climate disasters” of we continue to evade this debt. levels of emissions do not which again the National over-capacitate “sinks” provok- Academy of Sciences warned A month ago and on this page, ing climate change and who recently. It increases the a statement on climate change provide this shortfall-subsidy to extent to which we live at the was published co-signed by, us. While the subsidy makes us expense of the already vulner- numerous people, which list, unsustainable by definition, it able, not only depriving their now includes representatives of constitutes a form of global right to thrive, but more and Institutions, eminent scientists welfare payment from the poor more of their chance to sur- and leaders and ‘‘front bench” to the rich, indeed to those vive. Extending the period of speakers’ on environment and whose governance of emis- “debt-repayment” is an in- development from all political sions is least good and whose verted concept and looks to a parties in Britain. living standards increase is future which for many may not While the signatories admit the least needed. exist at all. problem of our inequitable and Moreover, as the beneficiaries Aubrey Meyer unsustainably high greenhouse of this welfare subsidy, we in Save the Forests Save the gas emissions levels and the G7 have (incredibly) just Planet urgent need to act, Mrs. committed ourselves collec- London NW25DS. Chalker has declined to sign. tively to a “net increase” to This statement acknowledges C02 emissions to spite of the that in respect of human rhetorical, commitment “to access to the global commons limit net emissions and achieve as sinks for the greenhouse an effective framework conven- gas emissions of us all, people tion on climate change”. Si- living to the emissions-inten- multaneously, whilst Mrs. sive industrial countries of the Chalker’s ministry says that our North are literally subsidised by conserving Third World forests the majority of people world- is to “help them in their efforts

31 September 9 - The Independent ‘Britain‘Britain‘Britain’s role in climate targets’

Sir: Your article “No carbon cent increase in its C02 emis- servation can never be a copies as Brussels seeks sions over the next 15 years. substitute for the restraint of energy tax” (5 Sept.) is wel- It promulgates the “compre- 002 emissions at source. come. It is sobering to read hensive approach”. This relies Ultimately carbon taxes will that, “the EC believes be- on tree planting to fix atmos- have to be resolved interna- cause industrialised nations pheric C02, rather than re- tionally commensurate with are the greatest culprits, they straint at source. the degree of international have a duty to lead the way”. Considering the US, with 4 inequity and the requirements Recognising the serious per cent of the world’s popu- of climate stability. For now nature of the climate threat, lation, provides 25 per cent of the EC has at least made a ministers from 137 countries global C02 emissions and that start. Let’s hope their debate at the Second World Climate its projected tree planting will generates more light than Conference in Geneva last “re-fix” less than 2 per cent of heat for the planet. year committed the industrial- its projected CO2 emissions, ised nations to just this. Yours faithfully, UK support for US policy is AUBREY MEYER One year on, most industrial- misguided. Doubtless the EC Coordinator Save the ised countries are now com- continues to make this clear Forests Save the Planet, mitted to targets for C02 to the UK Government, since London, NW2. emissions restraint. However, it is well understood, at least the United States (supported in Europe, that tree-planting only by the UK) is still on and the North’s fascination track for an at least 15 per with Third World forest con-

September - Guardian DrunkDrunkDrunken drivers on the road to global warmingwarmingwarming YOUR leading article (Sep- the ecological threat both to sions, both current and his- tember, 26) about the green Britain and globally. The torical. At the latest round of scorecard contained a small second is their failure, to climate change negotiations but significant error. Catalytic understand the need for a fair just wound up in Nairobi, the converters on cars actually and equitable international message from the overwhelm- increase carbon dioxide emis- response to this threat. The ing majority of nations to the sions (petrol litre burned for third is their attitude of non- real culprits in the North was mile travelled), because they compliance towards the loud and clear — get your make car engines less fuel ecological realism which own houses in order before efficient. ‘Cats’ for C02 re- drives the EC’s current energy you preach “environmental- straint is ‘score-card-sharping’. tax proposals. The fourth is ism”, make the global home the extent to which they have uninhabitable and stop trying Worse the Government’s underestimated the growing to pass the buck. The US/UK response to the whole reason international outrage over the attempt to shift the blame for C02 restraint — global violation of the global com- onto “future emissions” from climate change — contains at mons -the atmosphere - and developing countries is ex- least four major errors. The the precipitation of climate posed. Northern accumulating first is their inadequate as- change by Northern industrial, emissions alone may be sessment of the enormity of transport and energy emis- bringing us to the threshold of

32 serious irreversible change as effective public transport for like an alcoholic joy-rider who the latest marine evidence of example, obviating the selfish says “pass me the bottle”, coral bleaching now shows. At and destructive car-depend- oblivious of who gets hurt. the preparatory meeting ency which asphyxiates our There are those who feel that during August for the United cities and dams the planet all this is the beginning of the Nations Conference on Envi- and its children’s future. We biggest human rights violation ronment and Development in are seen as drunken drivers in history. They have the June next year, the Head of on the road to global warm- moral high ground and are a the Indian delegation ing, over the limit and under majority with key cards to summed up our predicament the influence of bad habits of play. The government’s green and the imperative we face in an unsustainable level of score-card is nothing more a blunt and simple way. For consumption. The govern- than a Joker. the North there have to be ment’s claim to lead the’ world Aubrey Meyer. lifestyle changes: reduced in environmental, protection is London NW2. consumption and introducing grotesque and blurred. Rather

September - Guardian The climate of change PAUL BROWN’S article (£165 In the Liberals’ document who provide climate subsidy billion bill put on cleaner ‘Costing the Earth’, they are compensated in an as- world, September 6) is inter- stated, “environmental subsi- sessment based on interna- esting. He quoted Mr. Derek dies are the converse of tionally agreed standards. Osborne, the UK’s chief nego- environmental taxes. While If, for example, £16.50 were tiator in the UNCED’s ‘92 the latter are designed to equitably levied for every (United Nations Conference ensure that the user of the metric tonne of carbon on Environment and Develop- product bears the cost of equivalent (MTCE) for CO, and ment) preparations in Geneva environmental damage methane emitted in excess of as saying: “We were a little caused, environmental subsi- the stabilisation threshold, UN daunted by the vastness of dies are designed to ensure stabilisation fund could collect the subject and the problems users benefit from environ- £165 billion per year from to be overcome... will the mental damage avoided. In global carbon taxes alone. talks of the enormous bill relation to greenhouse gas Thus the US would pay 25 per frighten everyone off?” emissions and climate change, cent of Mr. Osborne’s “big bill” this has real fund raising He could have said, “We are at a stroke (the UK a mere potential. Prominent Liberals, daunted by the scale of the two percent). Perhaps the academic and many high global problem, both human UK’s lonely support for the US profile politicians of all parties, and environmental, and are “comprehensive approach” to have signed a “climate state- frightened about the future. climate change is based on ment’ published on this page However being frightened off this hidden agenda and en- in mid June. ‘This acknowl- with nowhere to go sooner or couraging the US in its futile edges the majority of people later makes paying this bill programme of compensatory on the planet, with their very inevitable”. tree planting is shrewder than low per capita emissions, I thought. Well, the EC has started and quantifiably subsidise the is taking carbon taxation to minority who threaten climate United Nation’s climate suppress greenhouse gas stability. Thus accepting the change negotiators are just emissions seriously. As they EC stand for carbon taxation, resuming work in Nairobi. If have recently said: “The we begin to see how the £165 they are serious about want- industrialised nations are the billion can be raised annually ing the UNCED to go with a greatest culprits. They have a and the global temperature bang let’s see if the bucks duty to lead the way. Targets lowered. In effect, climate start here. for restraint have been set.” “culprits” are taxed and those Aubrey Meyer.

33 October 4 - Guardian The global debt that Britain must pay THE story “Britain trails EC “If the remaining global ment which causes countries partners and G7 on overseas fossil carbon budget were like Malaysia to walk out of aid” (Guardian, October 1), shared according to a strict the current UN negotiations notes the Overseas Develop- person-year equity including for UNCED (our so-called last ment Administration’s desire historic emissions, industr- best chance to save the to see any “debt-write-off” we ialised countries would have earth). extend to developing coun- no emissions rights left at Trying to save our lifestyles by tries registered as an aid all.” saving others’ sovereign programme credit. This, it (This would include the “right” forests is the “cheap date” was suggested, would give a to breathe.) Put more simply; that won’t wash. It is insulting fairer account of Britain’s it is only because around 3 and postpones the imperative “miserly” aid programme. And billion people somewhere over of equitable emissions re- yesterday we read of how the horizon don’t emit C02 at straint at source. This is the “Bonn gets tough on Third the average rate of UK or US national and global imperative World” through its aid pro- citizens, that we ourselves the Government refuses gramme. Self-interest, condi- don’t already experience realistically to tackle. Earlier tions and cutbacks is what outright climate force ma- this year the House of Com- this is really all about. jeure. mons Select Environment Our tinkering with the quan- Committee made an express As all those climate-statement tity and quality of northern recommendation that the signatories acknowledged on aid is a blind to reality. It is industrialised countries should this page (Letters, June 18), we in Britain and in the indus- be seen to be playing a full and there are now over 100 trialised north generally, who part in curbing emissions of eminent signatories from all are in debt to the less devel- greenhouse gases, over the world, we are liter- oped countries elsewhere. ally subsidised by the less “and do not give the ap- Aside from the scandal of developed countries in our pearance that they are there being (in spite of aid) a over-access to the global anxious to preserve the net transfer of revenue and commons, as we over-capaci- rainforests merely in order resources from the south to tate the natural “sinks” for to lessen the impact of their the north, there is a deeper greenhouse gases and pre- own carbon dioxide emis- scandal of how northern cipitate global climate change sions. The White Paper lifestyles are appropriating with our massive emissions. expresses hopes for the from the most vulnerable The ODA however, has again successful negotiation of a their fundamental rights to life refused to recognise and Convention on the control and sustainable livelihoods address this and pursues of emissions... such a which is destabilising the instead a “sweet-green” Convention is crucial if the global commons as we use pseudo-alternative to emis- greenhouse effect is to be their emissions rights and sions restraint at source in moderated.” warm the world. Nothing Britain. reveals this rights-appropria- The Government, avoiding the tion more clearly than an While the Government keeps advice completely, replied: audit of C02 and other indus- its foot firmly on the GNP “The Convention must trial greenhouse gas emis- accelerator, trying to rev the attract the support of as sions. engines of growth, the ODA many and as wide a spread tries to keep our exhaust pipe The starkest assessment yet of countries as possible, pointed firmly at dwindling has come from the California and the Government be- southern forests with a con- based research group IPSEP lieves that this will best be servation programme which is (Institute for Sustainable accomplished by ensuring in truth, unashamedly for our Energy Paths) which noted the Convention contains the benefit. It is this cock-eyed that commitment by all coun- polluters’ piggy-back arrange-

34 tries to devise national ments of our aid programme strategies to limit green- are “not conditionality but house gas emissions and common sense”. But where is protect and enhance sinks, the good governance of our particularly forests. The emissions? Moreover, “if other Government has stated countries take similar action” that, if other countries take is conditionality. Characteris- similar action, the UK is ing our aid programme as prepared to return its miserly misses the point. It is emissions of C02 to 1990 the overseas aid that we levels by2005.” receive that is generous to the point of insanity. Well QED for the global up- stairs/downstairs. In the view The ODA was right about one of many, it is we who used up thing, “we need a change in our and others’ rights running the calculations”. Let’s cut the up this global environmental gas, recognise the debt and debt as we developed our settle for global fairness along industries. Now is the time for with “commons sense”. If only recompense; real response for all our children’s sake, we time is running out. Where don’t have the right to do committees recommend, let otherwise. us demand that the Govern- Aubrey Meyer. ment desists from procrastina- 42 Windsor Road, tion. London NW2. Lynda Chalker has said the “good governance” require-

October 21 - Guardian The liberty agenda and the right to survivesurvivesurvive THE Commonwealth Confer- the biggest human rights ing the world”, remained ence in Harare is a fine forum violation in history. Many of indifferent to linking equal for addressing human rights. the countries in the frontline human rights to climate John Major’s rush to champion of adverse impacts of climate change. this cause in that forum change are in the Common- The sense of “rights” usually (Guardian, October 16) scat- wealth. Bangladesh for exam- arises after rights have been ters fearful angels, leaving ple will be further devastated violated or taken away (I some devilish double stand- by floods, storms and future didn’t know I had a right to a ards and awkward “linkages”. sea-level rise, not to mention stable climate until I discov- Some, as yet indigestible to Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Kiribati, St ered that someone was the UK government, go way Lucia and many other small destabilising the climate and beyond “aid and good govern- island states. Desertification taking that right away). ance”. and general eco-system stress in Africa can only accelerate. The trick is, if you don’t let Global warming and climate Many of our Commonwealth people know you’re compro- change, the result of danger- partners are there. It is de- mising their rights until it’s too ously extended and unsustain- plorable that our government late, the odds are the victim able energy policies in the has, in the middle of the “tidal has to adapt. industrialised countries of the’ wave of human rights sweep- North, are (sadly) the onset of It is therefore in no sense

35 foolish of Mr Major to raise The Western lifestyle, with not commit suicide by robbing the issue of equal human high resource-use and energy- the poor. It would repudiate rights. In fact it is laudable. impact, is not the standard to the global apartheid implicit in The foolish bit is the pre- which all people globally the American go-it-alone emptive substitution of their aspire. No amount of develop- nonsense. Mr Major is fortu- rights to climate at the behest ment exuberance and technol- nate to have this opportunity. of providence with imposed ogy-chauvinism overrides the He is in the company of climate-change at the behest fundamental rights of literally Nelson Mandela in Harare. of unaccountable, industrial billions of people (in fact all of May he be inspired by the technocracy. It’s a little galling us if we but knew it) to lives recent words of the latter: when the apostles of this elite, free of the threat and the “the ANC sees the preserva- (offering aid linked to human reality of human-induced tion and the rehabilitation of rights, democracy and good climate disruption. There is a the environment as part of governance), are the ones clear majority of people on the our liberation struggle. That is responsible for this rights planet whose lives and life- why what are called third appropriation. As Mr Major styles do not inflict generation rights — or more knows, we have the intracta- destabilising impacts on the popularly Green rights — are ble problem of our own mas- general health and common included in our proposed Bill sive and still unrestrained wealth of the planetary eco- of Rights. Like all other human green-house gas emissions system and the equilibrium of rights, they are inalienable.” and serious augury of a falter- the global commons. They do ing future. not precipitate force majeure. There’s your liberty agenda. Do we not all have fundamen- Blackened pots from northern Aubrey Meyer. tal rights to the common pulpits who do, will doubtless 42 Windsor Road, wealth of the non-destabilised bring southern kettles to the London NW2. global commons — the right boil if we try to negotiate to survive — ahead of any another round of double other right? Did not the Insti- standards (a little linkage here, tute for Public Policy Research a little less linkage there) and state (Letters, September 20), to run a two-tier world. Mr Major is right to make equal “rights cannot be absolute human rights the big issue.. It where the enjoyment of a would be a class (and sensi- right infringes another ble) act for a classless global person’s fundamental community, where the rich did right?”

36 1992

February 10 - Guardian Emissions impossible IT is easy to agree with the ever, “soak up the C02 which need to cut these energy indignation in Tom Drink- the G7 countries spew out.” If emissions to non-threatening water’s letter (February 6) current Northern energy levels at source without delay. about the “greed” of G7 and emissions were to be offset in As the continuing ozone story the lack of realism in their the manner suggested, it makes clear, there are un- economic policies. But on the would require permanent pleasant surprises ahead. crucial issue — Northern wall-to-wall reforesting of an Aubrey Meyer. energy emissions in relation area twice the size of greater Global Commons to Southern forests — he Europe. Institute. inadvertently reinforces the The prime concern of us all most dangerous stereotype. should be one simple thing, Tropical forests cannot now or how to face the inevitable

March 2 - Guardian KamikKamikKamikaze growth economy YOU REPORT transnational of the Intergovernmental Aubrey Meyer. corporations (TNCs) as op- Panel on Climate Change has Global Commons posing carbon taxation, one recently affirmed to UN Institute, of the EC’s intended global climate change negotiations, 42 Windsor Road, warming management meas- that the OECD measures for London NW2. ures (Environment Guardian, reducing the increase in the March 20). The Conservative rate of emissions are inad- manifesto announces its equate. GCI calculates if we intention to merge the UK burn more that 20 per cent of Department of Energy into known fossil fuel reserves, the Department of Trade and we’re beyond thresholds of Industry. This is adroit. It global ecological safety. Now diminishes UK Government we have DTI to the rescue! strategy for emissions re- To our disgrace, this general straint and pushes responsi- election has not been notable bility towards those who (by for its concern with this issue. definition) are most anti- But as we pass the planetary restraint and most pro- sell-by date, let’s spare a growth, the TNCs. TNCs thought for those who will threaten to decamp to the really pay the bill for our Third World according to “the kamikaze “growth” econom- polluter finds some other ics— the planet’s presently sucker to pay” principle. voteless children. As the poet The EC admits that the meas- Louis MacNiece wrote years ures to arrest greenhouse ago, “I am not yet born — oh emissions so far contemplated hear me.” are inadequate. The chairman

37 March 9 - Guardian Obscure view of the global crisis from our political penthouse

POPULATION growth is not The entropic consequences of When are we (in our political the primary threat to our such an impact would amount penthouse) going to admit the global environment (Letters, to the end of life on this primary threat of our unsus- March 2). It is pollution. If the planet as we know it. tainable levels of consumption and pollution, instead of present world population Conversely, if everyone alive blaming our economic victims were all to take up residence emitted no more greenhouse for the pollution of their in the United States, the US gas than the average Chinese poverty? would experience a popula- individual, we would (accord- tion density similar to the ing to Inter-governmental Aubrey Meyer. Netherlands. Panel on Climate Change Executive Director, If however we all started criteria) actually reduce at- Global Commons emitting greenhouse gases at mospheric concentrations Institute. the current per capita rate of below current levels. Northern US citizens, the global output governments and institutions of the gases would occur at such as NASA and the Royal seven times the current rate. Society fudge this issue. The WHO completely ignores it.

March 20 - The Times Letter to the editor Sir, The Department of Trade measures (including the aided by a possible energy and Industry may now be- proposed energy tax) were tax, will produce effective come the new home of the inadequate. The Conserva- emissions restraint? Department of Energy. Energy tives’ scheme will hardly help. In February, while the Inter- efficiency will go to the De- DTI might legitimately be governmental Panel on Cli- partment of the Environment. called the ‘Department of mate Change (IPCC) advised This is a Conservative election Economic Growth,’ with a brief deadlocked UN climate- pledge. The restraint of directly in conflict with emis- change negotiators that “more greenhouse gas emissions in sions restraint. It is this con- far-reaching efforts are re- the UK will therefore largely flict of interests which is at quired than are currently become the DTI’s concern and the heart of the global warm- contemplated (within the when EC energy ministers and ing crisis. Global climate OECD) in order to achieve a environment ministers meet change is merely a symptom major reduction of the rate of to discuss EC strategy for of economic growth via en- carbon dioxide increase in the emissions restraint, the UK ergy conversion and the atmosphere”, European multi- will presumably be sending a consequent carbon dioxide national companies were trade and industry minister emissions, and to give the threatening to decamp to the instead of an energy minister. energy brief to the DTI is to Third World to escape the At the last such meeting in compound the problem, not to EC’s energy tax. It is widely December, ministers conceded cure it. Do we believe that recognised world wide that that the EC’s contemplated industry “self-regulation”, the onus of creating strategy

38 for emissions restraint — Energy en bloc to the Depart- Aubrey Meyer essentially a global strategy ment of Environment, while Global Commons Institute for equity and survival — now the DTI should be subject to lies with the OECD. If this the requirements of a DoE government is sincere in its committed to those findings. commitment to the IPCC This should be an election findings they could do worse issue. than move the Department of

April 9 - Guardian Green card SO the IMF forecasts a “com- C02 emissions must increase. be about increasing “choice”. fortable” 3.2 per cent growth This sort of recovery there- However, all our prospects are in the industrialised econo- fore, is based on changing diminishing every moment we mies next year. This inevitably global climate in a way which continue to evade this issue. means a rise in the emissions decreases the survival pros- of carbon to the atmosphere. pects of us all. “Famine” Aubrey Meyer, Dr. John There is a close correspond- victims in the Horn of Africa Gribben, Dr. Wilfried Bach, ence between economic are just one of the appalling Jim Berreen, Dr. Hari growth and emissions growth early signals of this. Sharan, Danyal Sattar, Dr. for the three decades past. Julian E Salt, Sara Parkin, That this issue has not been Gustav Grob. Any politician in this election discussed at this time, is who says that “recovery” is evidence of the insanity of based on boosting economic those who would lead us. growth is really saying that This election is supposed to

April 21 - Guardian RRRoyal hoot on the oily road to Rio TODAY the Brundtland Com- equal survival rights is the choice should eventually mission — or the World Com- global political issue. The attain population growth rates mission on Environment and commission might as well go that are in balance with their Development — starts a four home if these are not central economic and natural re- day session in London- Prince to their concerns. sources.” It is we who stand Charles has been invited to condemned with these argu- It is all very well to say that make the opening keynote ments far more than the Third no country can prosper while address. The “population World. With our insatiable its population growth outstrips explosion” is his theme. boutique culture, we consume its economic expansion. This Considering the commission finite resources at rates hun- is the kind of knob-twiddling hopes to remove obstacles to dreds of times in excess of insight characteristic of our success at the UN Conference people in developing coun- discredited Overseas Develop- on Environment and Develop- tries. This inevitably dimin- ment Agency. Last year (in ment (UNCED), this keynote ishes the access of others. “Children by Choice and not contribution is likely to prove “More is best (but less for the by Chance”) they published explosive too. Industrial rest)” is the reality we ideolo- the following. “Countries destabilisation of the bio- gize with open-ended eco- whose governments establish sphere is the environment/ nomic growth. And now this a climate within which couples development issue. Mutually “wealth-creation” has can exercise reproductive

39 spawned the smug drastically threatening part of are going to have to do this samaritanship of “poverty our future scenario. This is fairly. This is at the heart of alleviation” (for those “less our legacy to the unborn as the UNCED agenda. Global fortunate than our-selves”) well as those who struggle to rights and equity are the and environmental salvation stay alive already. portals to sustainability and to boot. When is the penny survival. People in the South Global domestic product and going to drop? The boot is on don’t want lectures from us industrial C02 output go up the other foot. “First World about population growth. and down together like feast equals Third World They don’t want chicken egg Antony and Cleopatra. To famine” is the reality already. conditionality from Northern achieve positive economic What for example do we think know-alls either (“we’ll do x growth and negative emis- is causing the unprecedented dependent on others playing sions growth — ie. to drought and famine in sub- their part”— Mr Major’s line). decouple the economy from Saharan Africa? The horse is reduced con- the energy sector which sumption in the North: the Contributors to the sustains it — is alchemy. cart of salvation awaits this to Brundtland Commission However much we approach roll. For the moment the oily should address one issue the thermodynamic limit of road to Rio runs through ahead of all others: the global production efficiency — a Riyadh, rolling us all to ruin. climate-altering pollution worthwhile effort as far as it By raising population growth consequences of fossil fuel- goes — the inexorable conclu- at this moment, Charles driven economic growth. This sion is that still we have to merely hoots from his car as occurs principally in the North use resources less and those the same old bandwagon and at the expense of billions which we do use renewably. passes the same old buck. of present and future people, Then, moreover, there is the principally in developing Aubrey Meyer equal challenge of how we countries. This is the most Global Commons Institute

April 24 - Guardian Scapegoats of the Third Worldorldorld REPORTING of Prince Charles’ ern resource consumption. He rational response to overcom- speech shows how promptly specifically confirmed his ing the energy deficit conse- our establishment climb onto agreement with the GCI quent on local resource deple- the scapegoat bandwagon. proposition that excessive tion. Comparatively, within the This is the imperious closing energy consumption and North, there is only the illu- of ranks in advance of the UN emissions growth in the North sion of sustainability. Our high Conference in June. If we can is the overriding issue on the resource-to-people ratio is sufficiently pull rank on the UNCED agenda. only possible based on our Third World and denigrate massive absorption of re- Population growth in the them and their population sources from abroad. Present developing countries is a over the next five weeks, the accounting does not acknowl- function of industrial growth now almost inevitable fiasco edge diminution of ecological in the developed countries. As at UNCED will be much easier space and stability globally we in the North vacuum up to explain here in terms of consequent on this depletion resources from all over the Third World “unreasonable- and pollution feed-back. When world, we simultaneously ness”. Prince Charles re-uttered the destroy the integrity of their South’s cry for justice, he was Prince Charles did raise the local social structures. The acknowledging this. The so- issue, but most of his speech consequence of this is the called “poor” are not asking was devoted to other things. distortion of the balance of for charity, they are claiming He and Mrs. Brundtland drew people to resources. Having mutually equal survival rights. attention to profligate North- more children becomes a

40 If in the North ‘we want to the right to criticise develop- survive too, we have no ing countries or their women. choice but to heed this call Especially not when we are so and cut back on consumption. compliantly captive to the ritual ignorance (not-to- Strangely, ranks of males mention the unwanted emis- crowed their population- sions) of White House growth expertise in subse- America. quent TV interviews. “Give these women jobs and con- Anandi Sharan and Aubrey doms,” they said. Says a lot, Meyer really. They seemed not to Global Commons Institute realise that we haven’t earned London NW2.

May 11 - Guardian Arms cuts to defend the planet THE UK’s environment minis- Consequently the environmen- In the new era of global ter has just “negotiated” a tal costs incurred by the environmental security, the form of environmental opt-out industrialised North and pre- global family squabble at their for the US government with eminently the US, are being peril. All victories will be respect to the restraint of substantially externalised on pyrrhic. You cannot external- greenhouse gas emissions. to frequently innocent third ise the interests of 80 per cent Michael Howard’s new text (if parties in the Third World as of the world’s population with ratified at Rio) will allow the they (indeed we all) incur the impunity. For the US to give US to fulfil its intention to opportunity costs of adverse this kind of geriatric leader- increase its greenhouse gas climate changes. ship at this time is direct emissions. It means the US evidence of moral and finan- The US delegate to the cur- has neither the means nor the cial bankruptcy. More impor- rent climate negotiations intention to pay its environ- tantly, it is evidence of the declares that his government mental debt. fatal ideological contamination won’t make any adjustment called “me first or me only”. While the Organisation of which compromises the US As Rio will show, this puts our Economic Co-operation and position as a major economic world in peril from both politi- Development states that “the power. Where they had previ- cal and ecological disequilib- market itself cannot internal- ously stated that they re- rium. We really are faced with ise environmental costs”, our garded any external attempt “all or nothing”. government has said, “only to modify their energy policy business and industry can as an infringement of their Europe-wide anti-global deliver environmental im- national sovereignty, we find warming activities are taking provements”. Unsurprisingly, this has now been weirdly place on May 15 (ring 081- we find business and industry redeployed as the principle of 806 1561 for details). in Europe united against the “consumer sovereignty,” Aubrey Meyer EC’s proposals for restraining where “we don’t tell people Global Commons carbon emissions correctly what they can and can’t buy.” Institute. claiming that it puts them at What this really means is Nick Hildyard. comparative disadvantage “can’t pay, won’t pay”. More The Ecologist. with the US. Further, we find precisely, it is theft. Mr that the insurance market will Howard’s text makes the UK not cover against damage party to this theft- Southern through global climate governments will not take this change. lightly.

41 June 1992 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Pay Now – Live Later – the Road to Rio and the UNCED” – An Early Compilation of Materials Relating to Contraction and Convergence

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

June - The Centre For Our Common Future and the IFC A PPA ackackackage MarkMarkage ed, ‘R‘Red, eturn to Sender’.’.’.

Some Problems with the convention on climate which continue this uncontrolled and Climate Convention recognises the problem of possibly uncontrollable experi- human-induced climate ment with the atmosphere change and seeks to reduce and the climate has doomed ED. This month Northern the causes and mitigate the the most vulnerable states like experts review the Conven- consequences of the climate Tuvalu and Kiribati to disaster tions signed at UNCED. change which is now inevita- and ensured that much of ble. So, after years of debate, drought-stricken Africa will June was the month when the the most up-to-date scientific suffer on a permanent and world was due to be set and technical advice, and unethical basis. straight at the United Nations thousands of hours of nego- Conference on Environment As a showpiece, the conven- tiation on the words to be and Development (UNCED) in tion is tawdry and as an used, how did the world’s Rio de Janeiro. Against all the exercise in global responsibil- diplomats, international law- odds, UNCED’s Canadian ity, the negotiation has been a yers and politicians make out? Secretary-General, Maurice near disaster. The convention Having listened and contrib- Strong, had cajoled and acknowledges that the excess uted to much of the debate, persuaded the world that the production of greenhouse and reading the text of the time for a change was now gases is likely to cause delete- convention, the Global Com- and that they should sign up rious changes in climate. mons Institute (GCI) finds for global conventions and an Moreover it recognises that them sadly wanting. The agenda that would allow the developed countries, convention represents some civilization to survive into the bearing the major ecological sound ideas, but no action. first half of next century. The responsibility for climate brightest jewel in the Sum- The immense pressure from change (see chart on this mit’s crown was to be a the developed countries to page), have to take immedi-

42 ate action. It also recognises GATT negotiators out of of Small Island States in passing the needs of the business. (AOSIS) for some kind of deal most vulnerable states. Hav- on insurance and reparation The core proposals do not ing affirmed that climate for ecological and involve anything but an protection is its aim, the infrastructural damage result- unspecified statement that convention then defines a ing from anthropogenic excess greenhouse gas emis- precise objective of limiting climate change have been sions are a bad thing. It also greenhouse gas emissions to eliminated from the discus- notes that something may be levels which do not imperil sion. done about these emissions the climate and which will as long as the oil habits of the All that is mentioned is the allow natural recovery in US, the UK and other produc- needs of the most vulnerable those systems already af- ers (notwithstanding their to adapt to changing climatic fected. But then comes the now wilful destabilisation of conditions. How is it that the real rub. All the above is the world’s climate) are not world’s senior intergovern- subject to the convention’s

demand for sustained eco- disturbed. In odd moments of mental negotiators have failed nomic growth and develop- poignant good intent, the to comprehend that small ment. By the very nature of convention acknowledges the island states such as Tuvalu, the physical’ world we live in, needs of the most vulnerable Kiribati and many of the these will require that more states, but its response to this world’s low-lying islands will energy be produced, that situation is totally inadequate have become uninhabitable more products be made and, given the real circumstances long before the rising tides ultimately, that more green- of those states. The financial and storm surges resulting house gases be released. assistance and technological from climate change and The relationship between CO2 transfer that is referred to is global warming will physically and GDP for the past thirty unspecified. The mechanisms wash them out of existence? years and the C02 emissions for financial management are Is it simply that the real cost trend which unfettered eco- vaguely left to “established” of reparation for the damage nomic growth will provoke). institutions, such as the GEF, set in train is more than The convention also insists operating under the aegis of decision-makers in the OECD that no measures for climate the “Conference of the Par- can afford to admit, now or protection should be allowed ties” which, will seek to effect ever? With early evidence of to impinge “unjustifiably” on the convention and its aspira- climate change becoming free and open international tions. The original ideas from manifest around the world as trade —hardly a word to put the G-77 group of developing increasing storm frequency international lawyers and countries and the Association and severity, advancing

43 coastal erosion, changing its potentially devastating GCI is an independent think- wind and weather patterns impact on civilization. Appar- tank that researches the and widespread continental ently, the board rooms have causes of global ecological drought, perhaps the devel- decided that the most vulner- problems and assesses their oped countries have decided able states have no long-term political implications. It cam- just to brazen it out while future. Unfortunately, brave paigns for rational change “recognising the, needs of the words of recognition of anoth- accepting the link between most vulnerable”. Genocide by er’s plight and the complete equity and survival. yet another act of awareness. loss of sovereign interests are Contact: Global Commons of no value in an open mar- So what is needed? Professor Institute (GCI), 42 Wind- ket. Bert Bolin of the Inter-gov- sor Road, London NW2 ernmental Panel on Climate The first and vital pragmatic 5DS, UK - Tel/Fax, (44 81) Change (IPCC) was in little step in addressing these 451 0778

doubt when he presented his issues of global equity and report to the 5th negotiating survival must be to institute a session for the climate con- reduced dependence on fossil vention (INC5): Much more fuels. But, with the conniv- emissions reduction is needed ance of the UK, the US and its within the terms of the con- Saudi clients, this seems vention. This was not a politi- completely blocked. Instead, cal demand, it was a rational driven by the new and de- response to an ultimatum luded realpolitik of “polluter from the laws of nature. sovereignty”, climate change According to the IPCC, we negotiators created a package need at least a 60% reduction defending vested interests. It in carbon emissions just to is faintly addressed to gather- hold the 1990 elevated levels ing uncertainties and it has a of C02 concentrations in the slight wrapping of compas- atmosphere (see chart this sion. Nevertheless, common page). sense, if not our changing climate, will one day bring it It is clear that the OECD home —marked: “return to countries and the petrochemi- sender”. cal interests that drive their policies have no intention of Jim Berreen reducing, let alone stopping, Aubrey Meyer the damage they cause to the Global Commons Institute world’s climate, regardless of (GCI).

44 45 June 8 - Guardian Opposing polluter sovereignty

TO THE heads of government sovereignty” for the US as it while a minority — reflecting in the G7 countries: has said it has no intention of runaway consumption pat- reducing emissions. On the terns — emit greenhouse As you depart for Rio, please contrary it is going to increase gases at excessive levels, will you consider this. Rio is emissions as will all signato- provoking potentially runaway not the “start of a process”, it ries, as the text commits climate changes and obliterat- is the culmination of a long them to maintain strong and ing any remaining potential and arduous effort by count- sustainable economic growth. for globally equal survival less concerned people over at You should note carefully that rights. The cosignatories least 20 years. These people for G7 as well as globally, the pointed out that this inequity have sought to bring govern- C02/GDP growth-link remains is particularly unacceptable ments, business and industry consistently unbroken over when the majority of the to their senses and face up to the last 30 years. world’s people are already the reality of the global sur- struggling to meet basic vival crisis we all collectively A year ago on this page a human needs. Last but not face. statement demanding US least, we also caution you emission restraint was pub- There is no point in any of us against pursuing arguments lished with about 20 cosigna- continuing to duck the main about population growth tories. One year on over 300 cause of this crisis — the which imply (or may be taken people have co-signed as a wasteful consumption and as implying) that the onus is consequence. Over 50 of destruction of natural re- on people in developing these are European MPs (and sources by the so-called countries to breed less so as UK MPs of all parties, includ- industrial development proc- the present profligate con- ing three party leaders) along ess and its economic mirror sumption-pollution patterns with eminent scientists and image in “growth”. It does can be maintained by environment development seem scarcely believable that populations in the industrial- specialists from all over the through this process, humans ised countries of the North. world. They said, “we believe have actually affected the that all people present and The anger of people some metabolism of the biosphere future, should have rights to have described as “less fortu- and started to change global life and sustainable livelihoods nate than ourselves’’ (most climate, but the evidence for which are free from the threat but not all of whom are in the this is growing relentlessly. and the reality of human- so-called developing coun- It will be an act of folly and induced climate disruption.” tries) will in no way be miti- deceit if in Rio you declare gated by these smoke-screen They also said “We stress that yourselves in favour of a arguments. On the contrary, responsibility for taking cor- global ecological recovery the adverse political conse- rective action and reducing programme while you commit quences of this anger will bad practice lies with those us to intensifying the causes steadily combine with the who created and who con- of global ecological degrada- adverse ecological conse- tinue to exacerbate this global tion and the political imbal- quences of polluter sover- crisis. We demand that their ances which are caught up in eignty and overwhelm any response should be immedi- this. Nothing makes this remaining possibilities of a ate and without prevarica- prospect clearer than the rational political response to tion.” Polluter sovereignty is climate convention text this primarily consumption- not a satisfactory-response. crafted by UK environment pollution driven global crisis. minister Michael Howard In the context of global The leadership required (and which he intends co-signing climate change, more than which we urge you to give) with White House US. half the world’s population can only be based on hon- emit greenhouse gases at Signing this text is merely estly admitting the extent of insignificantly low levels, institutionalising “polluter our responsibility in the North

46 and unconditionally commit- pects for us all. Uexkull, Right Livelihood ting ourselves to an equitable Award: Tony Cooper, Aubrey Meyer, Dave recovery. Green Party global warm- Bradney, Global Commons ing working group: Jim This recovery cannot be based Institute; Tom Barker, Alt. Berreen, Green Party on the economics of increas- Tech. Assoc: Dilwyn environment speaker; ing competition-led growth of Jenkins, Ctr Alt Tech; Sara Parkin, UK Green demand for the precious finite Anandi Sharan, World Party Executive: George resources of life. Recovery can Clean Energy Coalition; Ed Monbiot, author Amazon only be based on sharing Mayo, New Economics Watershed: Kate these fairly at sustainable Fdn: Kate Young, Woman- Cameron-Daum, North rates of use. Advocacy of this kind; Nicholas Hildyard, Atlantic Network: basic principle and rejecting The Ecologist: Susan Hemansu Roy Trivedi, polluter sovereignty is com- George, Assoc Dir TNI: Indian Tribal Women’s mon sense. It is the prerequi- Jason Wilson, University Trust; Titus Alexander, site of future survival pros- College London: Jakob von End Global Apartheid.

June 1212June How British aid measures up in the Third WWWorldorldorld JOHN MAJOR defends the UK North/South scrutiny that the than we are presuming to record on aid saying quality politics of Rio initiates in have over theirs. not quantity is the issue. He global terms; i.e. accountabil- Aubrey Meyer says aid as a percentage of ity and redress over the Global Commons Institute GDP is an irrelevant indicator. inequitable and unsustainable Simon Hughes MP This de-linkage is interesting. use of global commons re- Liberal Democrat Environ- This suggests that GDP as sources - or as John Vidal ment Spokesperson currently measured is about reported from Rio on Agenda Jim Berreen quality and not about quantity 21, the extent to which the Environment Speaker which of course is nonsense. North’s overconsumption of Green Party In fact with global biophysical resources is the cause of Dale Campbell-Savours limits exceeded through the Third World poverty. Wealthy MP Labour Spokesman increased intensity of GDP samaritans describing how Overseas Aid measured human activities, grateful Southern paupers Penny Kemp GDP is revealed as having an must spend their pocket Green Alternative for emerging anti-quality compo- money may be John Major’s Europe nent where notions of value- big news in Rio, but it is added are being overtaken by yesterday’s news in terms of conditions and quantity of making the global process value-destroyed (e.g. ozone sustainable. hole). Is Mr. Major starting to What is needed is a GDP argue for de-linking our based on making the, Global wellbeing from GDP too? That Domestic Process sustainable. - from the proponents of This takes all costs and ben- “growth” - would be the day. efits - environmental and When British GDP reflects the social - into account in a quality and the efficiency globally democratised proc- which Mr. Major imputes to ess. Doing this will give the British ODA, the odds are we’ll majority rights to a greater have successfully been sub- say over our development, jected to the kind of reverse spending and acquisitions

47 July - Euro Chemical News - Environment Reviewevieweview Green Rights for all; the earth view Can the opposing demands of become a practical imperative All this explains the ‘get- North and South ever be - either we share fairly the lost’ attitude of countries like reconciled with the future finite resources of life at no Malaysia. It certainly had no health of the planet? ECN more than sustainable rates of inclination to accord recogni- asked Aubrey Meyer to give use, or the biosphere will be tion to the forests as part of his view of the discussions at damaged beyond its capacity the global common heritage. UNCED. to sustain many species - our It insisted that ‘its’ forests own included. were ‘sovereign’ to be ex- ploited in whatever way it To make matters more THE UNITED NATIONS Con- chooses, and that if the difficult the UNCED prepara- ference on Environment and forests were so important to tions clearly established the Development (UNCED), or the the global ecosystem their relevance of the uneasy so-called ‘Earth Summit’, maintenance should be paid questions long haunting the recently brought into focus for. The money offered by the international debate; namely the efforts of the international North has been insignificant, that much Southern poverty community to protect the and the US pursuit of this and consequent local environ- global environment by curtail- ‘least-cost’ forest conservation mental degradation can be ing unsustainable develop- option for global warming explained by the global eco- ment. management (plus bio-tech- nomic system, inequitably nology support) is proving to Sadly though, these efforts operated by the industrialised be costly and dangerous, both were undermined throughout, countries of the North for politically and ecologically. principally by the ‘me-first’ their own benefit. intransigence of the US ‘ad- In the face of these com- As recent reports from the ministration and by those plex challenges and the in- World Bank, the United Na- from industry who success- tractable politics they gener- tions Development Pro- fully lobbied it against any ate, we find politicians more gramme and others show, the measures for compensation or and more promoting the idea poor in developing countries restraint. that business and industry now actually measurably (rather than governments) are In the noisy debate about subsidise the rich countries the solution to environmental whether we have exceeded through structural adjustment problems. the limits of biospheric toler- and regimes of export-led ances which has put ‘survival’ growth, inequitable barriers to This is true to some extent, so decisively on the agenda, it trade, low commodity prices but also somewhat ironic. is becoming increasingly and the now seemingly end- Business and industry have apparent that equity is the less regime of debt repay- traditionally been a major global political price of re- ments. All this adds up to a immediate cause of environ- establishing equilibrium in the considerable net resources mental degradation, and ecosystem. If nothing else, transfer from South to North. politicians promoting the the UNCED has assisted in business and industry solution By incapacitating developing getting recognition for this are really acknowledging their countries in this way we new reality. own dwindling influence over compound the global climate both supply and demand side Can we reconcile the varied changes that we have precipi- behaviour. and invariably conflicting tated, for example by hasten- interests of the powerful, the ing their liquidation of tropical This is ever more so in the prosperous, the plebeian, the rainforests for debt repay- intensely consumerist democ- imperilled and the poverty- ment. Our actually helping to racies of the developed North, struck? There is no simple add this damage to our exist- where society’s well-being is answer, but we must recog- ing industrial damage is sheer now as good as indexed to an nise that what was once a folly. increase in consumerism - in a moral dilemma has now word, growth. Consumers

48 only elect politicians who offer Moreover President Bush’s In BCSD’s recent manifesto- good news. The good news cry of, ‘jobs before the envi- like publication Changing that electors still want to hear ronment’ was not entirely Course, sustainable develop- is that increased consumption honest and was hardly an ment is based almost entirely is assured; politicians can only appropriate preface to his on this idea of full-cost pric- propose this growth based on subsequent claim that, ing. It is aimed at changing the increased production ‘America is the leading envi- supply and demand behaviour. made possible by the expan- ronmental nation in this In theory, in an economy of sion of the activities of a world’. Further, US non-com- fully-costed social and envi- business and industry sector pliance over the bio-diversity ronmental transactions, full ever eager for new profits. treaty made it clear that cost pricing will signal ‘least ‘profits before the environ- cost equals least damage’ and Side-stepping institutional ment’ was really his intention. trigger the appropriate behav- responsibility (and apparently ioural changes. forgetting the extensive US It is this US intransigence consumer protection legisla- and irresponsibility over Taken to the point where tion), the US administration emissions restraint and bio- environmental protection is defensively coined the term diversity, more than any other achieved commensurate with ‘consumer sovereignty’, ex- factor, which soured the the scale of the environmental plaining that, ‘we don’t tell efforts for global co-operation damage we have caused, this people what they can and on climate, species, habitat is something of a revolution- can’t buy’. and especially forest preserva- ary goal, as the reverse is tion. almost entirely true of current The problem with all of this, pricing practice. even allowing for industry’s However, consumer sover- increased efficiency, is that eignty does not necessarily Recognising this, BCSD any environmental gains are exclude protection of the argues for an evolutionary lost in the ‘economic’ growth environment by increasing the approach, saying that full-cost of production and consump- price of consumption. Green pricing ‘must proceed using tion. This relentlessly yields a economists are now arguing imperfect existing knowledge net escalation of pollution and for the introduction of a and imperfect available environmental decline. The US product pricing system which tools... [but]... the lack of EPA currently estimates a 7.5 ‘internalises’ full costs of the accuracy in determining the growth rate of hazardous environmental and social actual and future costs of waste in the US for example, damage caused by produc- pollution should not allow us in spite of abatement. tion. This alternative to envi- to conclude that no price can ronmental regulation is pro- be established at all.’ This In the context of UNCED, moted as the most efficient gradualist approach presum- this scenario of consumer-led means of environmental ably also creates the breath- environmental decline has not protection through the mar- ing space for the BCSD to impressed delegations from ket. achieve its concurrent stated developing countries where aim of achieving sustainable the per capita consumption Apparently to this end, the development whilst still main- levels are a fraction of those UNCED was vigorously lobbied taining profits to industry. maintained in the North and by some of the market’s most often below the threshold of active protagonists, the re- This reveals a telling am- daily survival. When the US as cently formed Business Coun- bivalence in corporate motiva- the world’s major greenhouse cil for Sustainable Develop- tion, and may still amount to gas polluter refuses emissions ment (BCSD). This group of having someone else’s cake restraint, around 50 senior executives and eating it, because the from multinational corpora- industrial world’s environmen- ‘consumer sovereignty’ trans- tions including key chemical tal debts are enormous, go lates as ‘the United States life- industry chiefs was consti- back a long way, and still go style is non-negotiable’. tuted at the suggestion of mostly unaccounted for. This really means ‘polluter UNCED convenor Maurice However, if politicians see sovereignty’. Strong. an enhanced role for multina-

49 tionals in the pursuit of sus- industrialists have been gen- ver, his Darwin Initiative ‘for tainable development, BCSD erated at the expense of the the survival of the species’, feels that this is clearly recip- greenhouse gas source/ sink whilst responsibly helping to rocal. ‘As individuals set prices equilibrium for example. Since put survival on the agenda, for privately-owned goods, politicians from the industrial- has unfortunate overtones of society must establish through ised countries have been ‘survival of the fittest’. In political processes prices for unable to face this difficulty, current market terms this the use of goods held in there is a clear role here for implies the survival of the common - water, atmosphere leadership within industry. wealthiest. and so on. This work must be It would still be prudent for Still, taken with or without based on the best available us all - politicians, industrial- environmental costs internal- scientific evidence and on ists and others - to recognise ised, ecologically speaking people’s preferences and this long-term environmental such ideas are fantasy. With- choices.’ The implications of debt and the loss of equal out internalisation we are this are immense. Nothing individual rights of access to a helplessly on the road to less than the recognition of global commons resource overexploitation and with it, in equal rights of benefit from (climate stability) engendered fully costed global commons the resources of the global by this disequilibrium. China’s resource terms, the fittest - be commons is required. BCSD’s politics in the climate treaty they individual or corporate - challenge is as much to politi- negotiations made clear the are largely the most environ- cians as to business and extent to which it still articu- mentally indebted; perhaps industry itself. lates its future energy expec- indeed the least fit, the least But since they, like most tations in terms of ‘me-too’ wealthy. UNCED participants, declare exploitation of fossil fuels. Without a real commitment climate change to be the UK Prime Minister John on the part of the wealthy to potentially most serious of all Major’s rather languid judge- liquidate their environmental the environmental threats, ment that past ‘damage was debt, they remain as much in both politically and ecologi- inflicted not out of greed or danger as everybody else. cally, it would have been malice, but out of ignorance’ Inevitably some form of appropriate for them to ac- is only partly true and under- resource and technology re- knowledge the extent to estimates the immense practi- distribution is a part of any which past (vast) profits to cal need for redress. Moreo- survival strategy. Like it or not, we are even more hostage to China’s - not to mention India’s - future fossil fuel inten- tions, that they and others were (or are) to our past (fossil fuel derived) economic dominance. In the face of this, US confronta- tional tactics have been disgraceful but also naive. Ecological realities are generating new political realities in the global system. Now, driven by such survival/equity consid- erations, some from the multinationals are rein- carnating as visionaries

50 and starting to argue for participate in life at all, let to its survival.’ environmental and social alone the market. If the Recognition and defence of equity across the whole market and our collective the basic rights to the com- spectrum of the global com- industrial impacts continue to mons - ‘green rights’ - of munity. They have begun to degrade the biosphere, Afri- these ‘others’ is the greatest broaden their assessment of can droughts and challenge for those business who their stakeholders are: desertification, and cyclones visionaries who would change not only employees and devastating low-lying islands course. Perhaps they may join shareholders but also suppli- and states actually terminate their voices to the others who ers, customers, neighbours, these peoples’ interests and have endorsed the statement citizens’ groups and others. become our memento mori. in the panel. It was widely

“We acknowledge with concern that climate change through human enhanced global warming is a real and growing threat and is caused by the emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases from human activities. The Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change advises that to stabilise atmospheric concentrations requires a reduction to less that 40 percent of current levels. On average each person to the world contributes 1.65 metric tonnes of carbon and equivalents (MTCE) each year. 40 per cent of this figure - 0.86 MTCE represents each individual’s output threshold for forcing future cli- mate change. At least 63 per cent of the people in the world produce greenhouse gas emissions at or below this threshold figure, and their emis- sions contribute only 90 per cent of me non-forcing total. They therefore provide the equivalent of a 10 percent credit, which is taken up by the rest of the world. This inequity is particularly unacceptable at a time when the majority of people are struggling to meet basis human needs. It is also unacceptable as the forcing emissions total is derived largely from unsus- tainable, luxury-based activities in countries one of whose governments has still refused even the principle of setting targets for CO2 emissions stabilisa- tion, let alone reduction. We believe that all people present and future should have rights to life and sustainable livelihoods which are free from the threat and the reality of human induced climate disruption. We stress that the responsibility for taking corrective action and reducing bad practice lies with those who cre- ated and who continue to exacerbate this global crisis. We demand that their response should be immediate and without prevarication, and should take special action over this issue of social inequity.”

BCSD further acknowledges While circumstantial evidence circulated in the UNCED that ‘large numbers of people for these linkages is growing, preparations. do not participate in the ‘the tragedy is that poverty markets’. In fact we know and hunger exist in a world This Global Commons many of these are actually never better able to eliminate Institute statement issued a amongst them,’ said Maurice Strong. year ago has since been ‘This is surely a denial of the signed by hundreds of people the market’s collateral costs. moral and ethical basis of our from all over the world includ- Huge numbers can barely civilization, as well as a threat ing many senior European

51 politicians, environment/ It is no accident that Fidel industrialised countries have climatologists and environ- Castro received the longest only got themselves and ment/development experts. applause of any leader in Rio George Bush to blame. US-led polluter sovereignty at for the following words: To overcome the new and the UNCED was not a satisfac- ‘The main responsibility for deluded ‘me-first-or-me-only’ tory response. The truth is the atrocious destruction of narcissism of the powerful, that if the North in general the environment lies with the articulation and defence of and the US in particular, had the consumer societies. green rights globally has to be been more honest about the They are the offspring of at the core of our strategy for on-record inequitable as well the old colonialist and ecological recovery from now as unsustainable use of the imperialist policy that on. Across the board, fairness global commons (particularly engendered the poverty is the sine qua non of survival. the ‘over-filling of sinks’), the and backwardness that are If politicians cannot under- South might have been more today the scourge of the stand this and provide leader- amenable to forest conserva- majority of mankind. We ship, perhaps the corporate tion and the proposed con- need less luxury and waste visionaries can? vention. All three conventions in a few countries so there have forests as a major com- can be less poverty and Aubrey Meyer ponent, and while they are hunger in the greatest part Director Global Commons global commons assets, they of the world.” Institute are in conventional economic Even George Bush was seen 42 Windsor Road terms quite obviously prima- to applaud this speech. Given London NW2 5DS UK. rily the national economic all this, it cannot be a surprise assets of the countries in to anyone that the developing which they stand. One angry countries looked for - and South East Asian delegate, found - a way to fight back. In defensive about defores- the post-UNCED new world tation, asked if a further order, mutually assured de- convention for the pre-vention struction (MAD) has been of fossil fuel destruction was replaced by mutual ecological going to be put on the agenda blackmail (MEB) between the as well. North and the South, and the

52 August 14 - The Guardian Stop sniping, save the planet JONATHON PORRITT’S casti- ing positive and realistic to gation of the green move- support, who can blame it for ment’s supposed political resorting to fatalism and superficiality and lack of denial? adaptability has predictably Nothing less than a viable won the approval of environ- political agenda for the equi- mental campaigners within table rationing of the planet’s the Labour Party (Letters, finite resources is now August 10). But no amount of needed. Politics to achieve excitement about “post- this must acknowledge the Marxist eco-socialism” will physical limits which the substitute for key debate on biosphere imposes on us and the deadly nature of eco- the political limits which nomic growth itself. global inequities place on our The basic trends that greens abilities to find globally ac- have been pointing to for 30 ceptable solutions. years – environmental devas- Is it too much to hope that tation, resource depletion and future articles in this Environ- population growth – are still ment Guardian series will be moving smoothly on, making shorter on petulance and it ludicrous to suggest that longer on radical analysis? green politics and strategy should be radically recast Aubrey Meyer, Dave because of recent but un- Bradney, specified “momentous Jim Berreen, Tony Cooper, changes”. Anandi Sharan. Global Commons Insti- It is not denial in the green tute, movement that is hindering 42 Windsor Road, green politics. It is denial London NW2 amongst the public, aided and abetted by the contradictory idea from some environmen- talists and industrialists that further economic growth can somehow be harnessed to solve the eco-crisis that growth itself has created. Spouting about sustainable development” and the ab- sence of any clear alternatives to this improbable concept, send a clear message to the public that present cata- strophic trends can only persist. Governments (despite all they now know) are intent on “business as usual” behind their new fig-leaves of “sus- tainability”. While the public continues to be offered noth-

53 August 17 - Guardian Mind big mother, not little brother Aubrey Meyer, Jim Berreen, TOBY YOUNG’S piece about “creditors” in monetary terms, Global Commons Insti- little brother (Guardian Re- they are also the biggest tute; view, August 14) quotes a “debtors” in terms of global Miles Litvinoff, author of Blue Peter sceptic, Michael environmental impact. Earthscan Action Hand- Mortimore. The ODI’s Mr. The money “loaned” to the book. Mortimore disputes the Third Third World has been almost World debt/environment- entirely the product of a fossil degradation linkage. He also fuel economy with rampant notes the risk of overloading unpaid environmental costs at factual information with a source. moral burden and asks for a rational and scientific ap- It is irrational — not to say proach rather than an ideo- perversely ideological — of logical one. industrialised countries to continue promoting the global A rational approach to these monetary system, at the issues should (we feel) be expense of the global ecosys- founded in a recognition that tem by failing to “internalise” “debt” is a far more pervasive these damaging development phenomenon than the “dis- costs or more importantly, to puted (monetary) linkage” restrain these damaging allows. Politicians and econo- developments. mists now grappling with the so called “externality” costs of While we may reschedule development, do this “ration- Third World debt in the hope ally” because of newly extend- of avoiding default, attempt- ing self-interest assessments ing to reschedule ecological and a desire to make eco- debt — i.e. postponing emis- nomic sense of the human sions restraint in the hope of survival predicament. impunity — is about as ra- tional as hoping to change the The widespread scientific laws of physics. acceptance of climate change, its causes and the prospect of The debt/degradation linkage force majeure (not to mention argument (regardless of its the laws of thermodynamics) outcome) has been super- are now primary and make seded. The degradation is the this debt/degradation linkage debt, and failing to own up to dispute entirely secondary. this is even more dangerous With the advent of global than the debt itself. climate change we do know In the face of this, a little the following: (a) the over- evangelism from young peo- whelming cause of this has ple does not require our been and remains CO2. emis- permission. Nor will any moral sions from the industrialised burden be removed by Mr. countries (Blue Peter was Young’s unsubtly emotive correct to make the link to counter-evangelism. fossil fuel use) (b) in the international monetary sys- Industrially abusing Big tem, while industrialised Mother is our problem, (not countries are the biggest the aftershocks from Little Brother).

54 December 16 - The Guardian Fighting for the air we breathe Mr. TOLBA’S article (Guardian, At the one end there are clear why India, China and December 13) was timely. It countries like India and China others are for the time being, correctly drew attention to and at the other the US. All justified in refusing restraint the limitations of sovereignty refuse for themselves the and why the US is not. In fact and the “free” market, when restraint of their emissions of the US (with only 4 per cent it comes to solving global C02, the most damaging of global population) accounts problems such as climate anthropogenic greenhouse for. at least 27 per cent of the change. gas. On the face of it they are climate forcing due to carbon playing a dangerous game of Here in Geneva at the nego- emissions. Their intransigence mutual ecological blackmail. tiations for an international over carbon restraint amounts But to accept this indiscrimi- convention to arrest climate, to criminal and even malicious irresponsibility. It makes a mockery of the good faith upon which these negotiations are supposed to be based. It makes the world a more dangerous place (both eco- logically and politically) in which, to defend the most fundamental right of all, the right to survive. The Global Commons Institute calls on all MPs of good faith and common sense to support the Early Day Motion to the nately is to accept a fallacy. It change, these limitations are House of Commons (No 319) is unsafe but it also unfair. all too evident. There is a condemning the US and Even excluding historic emis- dangerous struggle over calling on the Government to sions, their greenhouse gas equal access to a common ensure that the Climate Con- impacts could not be more but finite resource, namely vention signed at the Earth different if we apportion these the atmosphere, the primary Summit reflects the link fairly. medium of global climate between equity and survival. equilibrium. It is a dimension As a first step, CGI proposes Aubrey Meyer of the global commons which that each person alive today Global Commons Institute transcends ownership and receive an equal share of London NW2. marketability. emissions but subject to the stabilisation criteria published There are essentially two by the Intergovernmental aspects to this struggle - how Panel on Climate Change do we all make an agreement (IPCC) in 1990. This would be which is both fair and safe? recognised as a right. Na- To members of the Global tional impacts would then be Commons Institute (GCI), this assessed as percents (of unavoidably involves linking global excess emissions) survival and equity. The task credit or debit according to is complex and considerable whether national balances considering the hugely differ- exceed or fall short of the entiated impacts and dispa- stabilisation threshold. rate circumstances of wealth and poverty amongst the As the accompanying chart negotiating parties. shows, it is then immediately

55 October 1992 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Climate Change, Population and the Paradox of Growth” - Aubrey Meyer and Anandi Sharan

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

December 1992 – GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “GDP:CO2 = B-A-U:I-O-U” – Some comments on the primary forcing and the background to carbon budgeting presented at INC – 6

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

56 October 21 - Guardian Survival & ‘innocence’ in the postmodern environment DO post-modernists merely trouble. In fact ecological use knowingly ironic quota- recovery is now made contin- tion marks to avoid “false gent on economic growth. innocence” in an age of Rio’s Climate Change Conven- innocence lost? tion commits us to promoting “strong and sustainable eco- Was Maurice Strong inno- nomic growth” with the com- cently ironic at the Rio “Earth peting aim of reducing green- Summit” when he remarked: house gas emissions. This “Past damage to the planet contradiction owes much to was inflicted largely inad- the efforts of the industrial vertently. We now know lobby from which the BCSD what we are doing. We have sprung. have lost our innocence.” BCSD have indicated to us a Professional academics and willingness to publicly debate post-modernist sociologists the growth/limits controversy. now play an important role in This is at the very fulcrum of the post-Rio “sustainable the global equity and survival development” debate (aided equation in which the un- by 20 million pounds of UK known balance of our world Government funding). The beyond postmodernism floats. “Business Council for Sustain- Will post-modernists (and able Development” do too. critically the newly funded This grouping of transnational professionals) acknowledge corporation executives are the the ecologically fatal cost of “growth optimist” visionaries modernists’ misplaced growth- of global capitalism, with optimism? Or will they too many hopeful governments in subscribe to the idea that “the tow. If post-modernists last gasp of the past” merely envision a “new values precedes a new values millenium” where “batteries millenium, one which we can have been recharged” with ideologically inflate to answer the BCSD agenda, it seems to a universe of question marks invite us to accept that “inno- with an infinity of quotation cence lost to sustainable marks? development” may result in Global capitalism has come at perennial growth. a price. Who will pay for So far the use of the word capitalism as Cosmos? “sustainable” has only served Aubrey Meyer, to put quotation marks Anandi Sharan, around the words “develop- Jeremy Seabrook. ment” and “growth”. All major London NW2 political statements on sus- tainable development post- Rio, from G7 outwards, have been “growth-optimist” - trying to economically accel- erate us out of ecological

57 1993

1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Global Climate Change and the Noose of Equity and Survival” – Aubrey Meyer and Anandi Sharan. Equity and survival are now inextricably linked. This is the basic contention of the Global Commons Institute

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

March 20 - Guardian International PPPower subsidy from the poor THE industrialised countries worlds population. The other Aubrey Meyer receive an energy subsidy 64% generate 7% of global Anandi Sharan from the South worth $3.4 fossil GDP at or below the The Global Commons trillion annually at current sustainable level. The extent Institute value. This is the political of their unused fossil GDP at the UN issue at the UN climate nego- entitlement was $3.4 trillion tiations under way again in for 1990. The current condi- New York. This figure reflects tional offer through the World the fact that 93% of global Bank from the subsidised Gross Domestic Product is North is at best 0.00006 of generated with fossil fuels at this amount. levels above that required to This is a confidence-busting preserve climate stability. measure at a time of deepen- This is done by 36% of the ing crisis.

58 March 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Climate Change and the Precautionary Principle”- An Analysis of Climate Creditors and Debitors to the UN Negotiations INC-7

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

March 22 - Inter Press Services - UN LDCs footing $3.4 trillion bill for NorthNorthNorth’s energy practices Developing countries are Anandi Sharan of GCI ex- She said that currently total subsidising unsustainable plained the links between global GDP amounted to some energy practices in the North gross domestic product (GDP) 20 trillion dollars per year, but to the time of $3.4 trillion a and carbon dioxide emissions, that based on the IPCC rec- year, an environment research noting that the two go up and ommended cut in greenhouse body said here. down together,” so that “the gas emissions, only seven higher the GDP, the greater trillion dollars worth per year A document by the London- the carbon dioxide output.” is sustainable. based Global Commons Insti- tute (GCI) calculates just how An Intergovernmental Panel And of the global 20 trillion much industrial countries, or on Climate Change (IPCC) has dollar GDP, industrialised “energy debitors”, owe devel- said a minimum of 60 cuts in countries account for $19.2 oping countries, or “energy carbon dioxide emissions were trillion. But on the basis of creditors”. needed to slow further warm- their population, industrialised ing and curb adverse changes countries are only allocated The document has been in the climate system. $2.7 trill. worth of global GDP, presented to the Intergovern- “so they’re actually appropri- mental Negotiating Committee “At present there are coun- ating, or in debt to the tune of for a Framework Convention tries which are massively over $16.5 trillion annually based on Climate Change (INC/FCC), their allocated quota limit and on 1990 figures,” she said. which is meeting at UN Head- countries which are well under quarters this week to discuss that limit,” Sharan said. Based on IPCC the assump- funding for the convention. tion of a 60% cut in green-

59 house gas emissions, the GCI pays the North, the industrial- calculates that environmen- ised nations can run a sys- tally non-damaging carbon tem, “which allows them to dioxide output per person dump their unsustainable annually would amount to technologies and energy some 0.46 metric tonnes of systems on the world at carbon. But it says that today, prices that drive out sustain- the United States alone emits able technologies like renewa- between seven and eight bles and reproductive holistic metric tonnes of carbon systems.” dioxide per person annually. “It is of paramount impor- “When you look at the per tance that we stop talking capita consumption figures, about developing countries at we find that India and China all in the context of climate can triple and quadruple their change, and that we concen- emissions without getting trate whole-heartedly on anywhere near the present getting eco-restructuring in levels of developed countries’ the North,” she said. emissions,” Sharan said. And Jeremy Leggett, Scientific Commenting on the INC talks Director of Green-peace so far Sharan said, “the International’s Climate Cam- biggest scandal is that the paign warned Wednesday only accountability that seems that, “time is everything in to be being discussed here is this game.” He said, “as every the accountability of develop- month goes by, we learn ing countries through the depressing news out there in Global Environmental Facility.” the natural world — it looks less and less likely that this The GEF is the interim finan- series of record-breaking cial mechanism mandated to storms around the world, is provide the resources on a not at least, in part, getting grant or concessional basis to its excess energy from the developing countries to help known heat-trapping ability of them implement the commit- greenhouse gases.” He ments of the Climate Conven- warned that insurance com- tion. panies in the industrialised The convention, signed by countries, on whose health 160 countries at the Earth successful economies depend, Summit in Rio de Janeiro last could soon be ruined by the June, invites countries to avalanche of recent wind- return to their 1990 levels of storms. According to Green- greenhouse gas emissions as peace, between 1966 and soon as possible. 1987, there was no wind- “There is no formal account- storm anywhere in the world ability, as yet at all, by the which cost more than billion emitter countries - there’s an dollars in insured losses. But ‘intention’ to cut emissions, it says that during the period but the stated commitment is 1987-1992, there have been to ‘strong and sustainable at least ten such catastro- economic growth’,” Sharan phes. said. by Jaya Dayal She noted that through the New York, Mar 22 (IPS) energy subsidy the South

60 May 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Who Provides Global Benefit; who causes Global Disbenefit” – A Policy Briefing to the IPCC 2nd Assessment

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

June 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Making Way for Decision-Taking Under Uncertainty”- A Policy Briefing to the OECD/IPCC Conference on Climate Change Eco- nomics

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

61 August 1993 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Joint Implementation – in a Globally Sustainable System Equity and Efficiency Converge” – An Analysis of Climate Creditors and Debitors to the UN Negotiations; INC 8

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

62 1994

June 1994 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “The Unequal Use of the Global Commons” – GCI’s submission to the IPCC Second Assessment of Climate Change, Working Group Three”

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

July - Guardian Commons and goings Richard Douthwaite of planetary resources. need humans to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by NOT many groups invited to Its finest hour came last year 60-80 per cent. attend a key UN conference when it sent a small team to are unsure whether they will the Intergovernmental Panel Such a sharp cut would have be able to raise the air fare. on Climate Change and a profound effect on the Fewer still have to book into helped deny the Canadian world economy and the the YMCA. And the number Secretariat the outcome it Montreal meeting was to that can claim to have played had envisaged. prepare a brief for economists a more influential role than to advise on how best it The IPCC was set up by the most government delegations might be done. At least, that UN Environmental Programme are rare indeed. was what the GCI party and the World Meteorological thought. Despite its rather posh name, Organisation to find out The Global Commons Institute whether man’s activities The group consisted of Au- is a small group co-ordinated might be disturbing the brey Meyer, a composer and from a private house in North world’s climate and, if so former viola player with the London. Set up after the UN’s what could be done. In 1990 London Philharmonic Orches- second World Climate Confer- it confirmed there was a risk tra, Anandi Sharan, a house- ence in 1990, GCI works to of a catastrophic climate wife and self-taught expert on pressure the current global change unless greenhouse renewable energy, and GCI’s climatic system and to ensure gas levels were stabilised. strategist, Jim Berrean, a each country has a fair share This, the IPCC said, would former senior lecturer in

63 environmental studies at cut human welfare, I was Today, GCI has the wide- Birmingham University. I went pushed to the microphone. spread support of non-OECD along, too, ostensibly to give nations and the grudging Pearce admitted that his economic advice, but really to respect of the IPCC itself. statement was incorrect; that marvel at how they operated. Indeed, the IPCC has now incomes in the future might invited GCI to make a presen- We were surprised by what not have to fall if fuel use was tation at the climate change we found. The secretariat’s restricted, because the world conference in Nairobi later this draft instructions for the economy was not operating at month on the unequal use of economists made it clear that maximum efficiency. Action to the global commons (the preserving conditions for halt warming would not parts of the earth we all economic growth was far necessarily deteriorate the share). more important than preserv- world’s economic perform- ing the environment. As a ance, he agreed. But GCI may be forced to stay result, the economists were at home. “We cannot afford to By Day 4 it looked as though being asked not how green- go,” Aubrey Meyer says. GCI’s efforts had been in vain. house gas levels could be “Teams from industrialised But, at the last minute, the US stabilised most efficiently but countries are meant to be insisted that the economists what was the slowest rate of sponsored by their govern- be asked to study the issue of increase the world could ments, but the British govern- stabilising greenhouse gas afford. ment has refused us any levels in the atmosphere. help.” So have other northern In response, the GCI distrib- Other nations quickly agreed. global bodies. Is anybody uted a statement on bright The US might have taken this there? yellow paper to draw del- line anyway, but by raising the egates’ attention to what was issue so prominently, GCI GCI can be contacted on going on. Then, after Profes- ensured the question was 081 451 0778. sor David Pearce of University addressed. “GCI should be Richard Douthwaite wrote College, London, claimed that very pleased with the influ- The Growth Illusion. “every action we take entails ence they had,” said Dr Peter a cost” and that restricting Sturm, head of the OECD’s fossil fuel use would therefore resource allocation division.

July 01 - Guardian Why some lives come cheaper than others PROTECTING the world envi- Part of this exercise entails This means, as an economist, ronment requires that devel- giving cash values to human you help to capture the sus- opment be sustainable. Some lives. They accept there are tainable development agenda time ago mainstream econo- going to be hundreds of for your profession by discard- mists set out to capture the thousands of deaths world- ing a real Chinese life 10 “sustainable development” wide as a result of global times more easily than a real agenda for the economics climate changes. life in the EU or the US. profession. In this pursuit they A recent research paper from Ironically, these lives are not invented “global cost/benefit the UK government-funded at risk as a result of damage analysis” (G-CBA). Global Centre for Social and Eco- to the global environment for warming and the cost and nomic Research of the Global which citizens in the EU and benefits of climate change are Environment states that the the US have been and are at now being assessed by them cash value of a “statistical life” least 10 times more responsi- in these cash terms. And this in the EU or the US is ble per head than citizens in assessment is being pushed $1,500,000 per head, but in China. by the UN’s Intergovernmen- China it is only $150.000. tal Panel on Climate Change. There is, of course, a heavy

64 foreign policy cost associated NY; Centre for Human Sweden, UK, US; Live Wire with this since the population Ecology, Edinburgh Uni- BBS, Bombay; New Eco- of the EU and the US is out- versity; Christian Aid UK; nomics Foundation; numbered 10-1 by everyone Climate Net-work Africa; Oikonerei Survival Project, else. The need to value Ecologica Ltd, Lancaster; Tanzania; Scientists for human rights as equal, is Friends of the Earth Inter- Global Responsibility; prudent as well as perennial. national; Global Commons Stock-holm Environment Aubrey Meyer, Global Trust UK; Global Environ- Institute. Commons Institute, and mental Research Centre; representatives of 50 Green Party, Oxford, organisations including Australia, California, the following: Atmos- Germany, Ontario, North- pheric Sc. Univ. at Albany ern Ireland, Norway,

July 44July Now we know MY letter (July 1) included the This should have read: “Ironi- following: “Ironically, these cally, these lives are now at lives are not at risk as a result risk...” of damage to the global Aubrey Meyer. Global environment ...” Commons Institute.

July 20 - The Standard Industrialised nations blamed Climatic changes to hurt therefore take responsibility to financial power they have built world economies put “matters right”. The up by consuming unsustain- meeting held at UNEP head- able, climate-threatening By Hussein Mohammed quarters in Nairobi, was called quantities of fossil fuels such INDUSTRIALISED countries by the United Nations’ Inter- as oil, gas and coal to buy the have been blamed for the governmental Panel on Cli- right to consume even more, catastrophic changes in the mate Change (IPCC). Several “explained Mr Meyer. Four world climate. participants representing years ago, about 170 scien- countries worldwide are also tists working for IPCC said if A researcher attending an attending the week-long meet global warming was to be inter-national conference in that opened on Monday to stopped, it was necessary for Nairobi said that 99 per cent discuss the social and equity industrialised countries to of the rise in greenhouse gas issues that could arise from make cuts of between 60-80 concentration, which is worry- attempts to prevent global percent in the rate of gasses ing everyone across the globe, warming. Researchers at the causing earth’s climate to has been caused by the meeting strongly criticised warm rapidly. It was observed industrialised countries. methods proposed by the that most of the ‘greenhouse The researcher, Mr Aubrey industrialised countries to gasses’ were produced by the Meyer, of the Global Commons prevent a catastrophic change burning of fossil fuels in Institute in London said these in the world’s climate. ‘The industrialised countries. countries (industrialised) must rich nations want to use The IPCC is now employing

65 large numbers of economists, matters worse unless they it will reward those countries mainly from ndustrialised were implemented as part of which have caused the countries, to give advice on a programme under which present crisis to profit from reduction in fossil fuels used. industrialised countries stead- the damage they have done,” One method being proposed ily cut their fossil energy use Mr Meyer commented. includes a scheme for joint until there was no more. “At implementation whereby a present, the World Bank and wealthy country is required to other institutions believe that pay a poorer nation to cut its the amount of money a greenhouse gas emissions in country has should determine preference to cutting its own. the amount of fossil fuel it is Mr Meyer argued that both of able to use. If their right-by- these ideas might make income approach is adopted,

Juy 29 - Guardian Commons people given green light THANK YOU — the Guardian for one of us as well. And so I with many others, was already made it possible. On the became one of the 150 people affected by the climate crisis. morning of July 1, there from around the world who Higher windspeeds, taller seemed to be no chance that took part in the IPCC’s confer- waves, fiercer storms and a few days later anyone from ence on the “equity and social heavier rainfall had already Global Commons Institute considerations” of global done severe damage to prop- (GCI) would be able to fly to climate change. GCI thanks all erty and cost thousands of an international conference in those who made our attend- lives. Nairobi to deliver a paper ance possible.. We took the She was “truly aghast” at the documenting the extent to facts to many people from the OECD economists’ valuing life which the industrialised coun- South. They are mostly de- in the EC ten times higher tries are really responsible for prived of impartially analysed than in the “poor” countries. the world climate crisis. We information about this matter. had received an invitation But not one of the industrial But those responsible aren’t from the Intergovernmental countries’ economists was even listening. For the mo- Panel on Climate Change present. It is they who are ment things will only get (IPCC) to do this. The UK carrying out the “global cost/ worse. government refused to fund benefit analysis”, valuing lives Aubrey Meyer. our attendance in spite of in the North 10 times higher Global Commons Institute their obligations within the than lives in the South and IPCC. writing up the resultant “policy options” in the new However by evening, every- IPCC report. Criticism of their thing had changed. Richard deft and inequitable approach Douthwaite’s article in Envi- is mounting steadily. ronment Guardian about GCI’s plight produced several offers For example, they should of small sums from pensioners have heard from the people and others who could ill-afford most at risk, like those from them (Why is it that the poor the low-lying and small-island are always the most gener- states. Ruby Saha, who works ous?) before Edward Gold- for the Mauritius government smith, the founder of the made the meeting’s saddest Ecologist magazine, rang but most telling presentation. offering to pay a return airfare She told how her island, along

66 1995 Planetary Connections NEVER GIVE UP! Triumph for Global Commons countries than the richer damage done as a result of as climate economists told to ones, as a result of global lives being lost was very “Try Again” warming. much greater in the devel- oped countries than in all the Economists, who have spent But, extraordinarily, they rest of the world put together. the past two years attempting calculated the value of a This, despite the fact that to estimate what level of human life at what a person only the 20% of the world’s resources the world’s govern- is prepared to pay to avoid people live in these countries ments should put into trying the risk of dying! and occupy less than 20% of to halt or slow the rate of Obviously, the inhabitants of the world’s land area! global warming, have been poor countries could afford to told by a UN Agency to go GCI circulated these and pay much less them people in back and do their work again. other corrections before the rich countries - one fifteenth meeting and by the time it The economists aroused began, there was an immedi- international outrage earlier ate and insistent rejection of this year, when it became the unequal life-evaluation known that they were valuing used in the economists’ work. the life of a citizen of a devel- oping country at only one But the economists’ report fifteenth of the life of an was handed to a closed sub- American or European citizen. group of “government only” negotiators who spent three What was to have been their days considering what should final report was rejected at a be done. And an attempt was recent meeting in Geneva of even made by some govern- the Intergovernmental Panel ments to prevent non-govern- on Climate Change (IPCC). “If mental agencies like the their estimates of damage Global Commons Institute had been accepted, the world speaking during the negotia- community would have been tions. advised that little need be was the figure used by the done to slow the warming At the end of the last plenary economists. process because it was session of the last day a cheaper not to do anything,” Hence their conclusion that a “final” text was presented to said Aubrey Meyer, founder life in a developed Western delegates for adoption. The director of the London-based, country is worth 15 times chairman, Mr. Jim Bruce of Global Commons Institute. more than a life in the so- Canada, insisted that the called Third World! whole section was passed as The decision is a triumph for it stood and, despite the the Institute and its founders, The figures they came up controversy, brought down his and all those who have been with reflected these findings: gavel and closed the meeting. working to oppose what has value of an American or West All the OECD country delega- become known as the ‘un- European $1.5 million; value tions, many of whom were equal life valuation’. of an African or Indian professional economists sat in $100,000. When doing their sums, the complete silence and allowed economists accepted the On this basis the report this decision to go through premise that, many more lives concluded that the value of unchallenged. would be lost in the poorer

67 However, at the eleventh hour, ages had been worked out. cially-convened meeting in the Cubans saved the day. Montreal in October. Brazil also then rejected the They had been in the queue report saying that “they were “When Jim Bruce brought the to speak before the gavel formally protesting on behalf gavel down, I thought all the came down and the chairman of their government”. “This work GCI had done had been was obliged to reopen the was a quite remark-able wasted,” Mr. Meyer said. meeting. Rejecting the text outcome” Mr. Meyer said. outright, the Cubans pointed “Funny how even a defeat can “But for the final words of the out that several arguments be defeated, if you hang-in Cubans and others, the game had not been answered and until the end.” GCI has would have ended with the that the errors in the assess- achieved an enormous IPCC “knowingly publishing ment had not been corrected. amount working on a tiny wrong data.” So now the Key developing countries budget. It needs funding to economists, most of whom didn’t trust the technical continue its important work. are from rich countries, have validity or competence of the two months to reconsider report, in particular the way their conclusions for a spe- the distribution of the dam-

1995 - TT1995 om WWom akakakeford and Martin Walters ISBN 0-471-95283-4 “Science for the Earth””” “Here at the Global Com- mons Insititute we are concentrating on the de- mocratization of the climate change negotiations, steer- ing them away from people- less money and empower- ing money-less people”

Earth Island Journal The TTThe rue Cost of Climate Change UNITED KINGDOM - The value of everything produced While 80 percent of the International Panel on Climate in the world in a year). world’s people live in the non- Change (IPCC) was criticized industrialized South (an area This prediction may seem in Montreal last October for covering approximately 80 frightening, but, according to underestimating the financial percent of the Earth’s sur- GCI, the IPCC’s report actually costs of climate change. With face), the IPCC calculated that minimized the true costs of atmospheric carbon dioxide the cash value of climate climate change by valuing the predicted to double by the damage would be twice as lives of Third World residents year 2050, the IPCC had high in the North. at only $100,000 apiece - “a estimated that 113,000 hu- fifteenth of those in the First GCI, however, pointed out man deaths, as well as crop World” - and assessing a that 78 per-cent of added and property loses from hectare of land in the South deaths, 75 percent of drinking increased drought, flooding as worth one-tenth as much water losses and 85 percent and storm damage could as a similar amount of land in of all low-lying lands lost to claim 1.5 - 2% of the Gross the North. rising seas would occur in World Product (GWP -the total developing countries. GCI’s

68 calculations, by contrast, biased against people who would make them happy,” it predicted annual losses by have less money to spend. would destroy the premise of 2050 that “could amount to cost-benefit analysis and GCI proposed using a Willing- between 4.5 percent and 47 transform the problem from ness-to-Accept (WTA) method percent of GWP. At the higher an economic exercise into a to determine how much end of this range,” GCI con- moral issue. - GS money Third World citizens cluded, “life as we know it would need “to happily accept would collapse.” higher risks of death from Noting that six of the seven disease, storms, the drying of writers of the IPCC report their rivers and flooding of were from the North, GCI their land.” pointed out that the authors GCI speculated that the IPCC relied on an economic cost- ignored the WTA approach benefit analysis known as the because “if people say that Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) there is ‘no amount’ of mon- method -a formula inherently etary compensation that

July 23 - Independent One WWOne estern life is worth 15 in the Third WWWorld, says UN report Lives in poor countries should Experts say that the huge expected to be approved by be valued as worth 15 times disparity between the value the plenary meeting of IPPC less than those in the West, placed on life in rich and poor in Geneva on Tuesday. They according to UN economists countries minimises assess- say that, by the best esti- calculating the possible cost to ments of the damage that will mates, a doubling of the the world of global warming. be done by global warming amount of carbon dioxide, the Their calculations are in and so will give governments main cause of global warm- unpublished official docu- an excuse to avoid taking ing, in the atmosphere, could ments, seen by the Independ- action to combat it. cause damage equivalent of ent on Sunday, which are only 1.5 to 2 per cent of the Sir Crispin Tickell, the Prime expected to be endorsed by world economy. As some Minister’s chief advisor on the the world’s governments this estimates suggest that the environment, describes the week. The documents are cost of cutting emissions of calculations as “ludicrous” and designed to guide the gas would be greater, this says they could discredit policymakers in deciding how may be taken as justification international attempts to to respond to potentially for inacation. But these calcu- evaluate the extent and disastrous climate change. lations are partly based on consequences of the threat- valuing lives in developing The calculations – which the ened climatic change. He has countries – where most of the documents admit are “contro- already written to protest to deaths, mainly from strokes versial” and “reflect discrimi- leaders of the Intergovern- and heart attacks brought on nation against the less well mental Panel on Climate by the extra heat, would occur off” – are bound to create an Change (IPPC), the official – at £62,500 each, compared internal row just as evidence body set up by world govern- to £940,000 each in Europe is mounting that global warm- ments to assess the dangers an North America. ing is taking hold. Research in of global warming. both Britain and the United Lives in the former Soviet The documents have been States shows that 1995 could Union are valued at £180,00 prepared by economists in an be the hottest – ever year each, one fifth of the figure in IPPC working group and are worldwide.

69 the West. nothing up to 25 per cent of pines in the summer of 1991, world GDP. which flung 20 million tons of Calculations which value all sulphur high into the atmos- lives equally, and include Aubrey Meyer, director of the phere, filtering out sunlight. other factors missing from the Global Commons Institute Until the eruption took place official assessment, produce which has produced similar 1991 was set to be even estimates that global warming figures, says: “The calcula- hotter than 1990 after six could cut the world’s wealth tions the governments are record breaking years in the by up to a quarter each year- being asked to endorse are 1989s. which would call for dramatic profoundly unreliable and preventative action. could provide an excuse for The sulphur has now dropped them to do nothing. By plac- out of the atmosphere and Michael Grubb, head of the ing such a low value on the the hot years are returning. Energy And Environment lives of most of the world’s 1994 was the fourth warmest Programme at the Royal people they seem to endorse year ever and would have Institute for International the economics of genocide”. been the hottest if it had not Affairs, who has made a been for an exceptionally cold special study of the costs of So far this year worldwide January and February world- global warming, describes the temperatures have equalled wide. Now 1995 is bidding for 1.5 to 2 per cent figure as those in the first part of 1990, the record “ridiculously definite” and the hottest year on record, almost certainly a large under- suggesting that global warm- estimate. ing is resuming after a brief lull. He says that it is so far impos- sible to make an accurate The lull was caused by the assessment, but the cost huge volcanic eruption of could range from virtually Mount Pinatubo in the Philip-

August 3 - Nature Developing countries dispute use of figures on climate change impacts London. An intergovernmental rise in global temperatures cies into US dollars. “$1 in, meeting held to finalize a draft after a doubling of carbon say, Cambodia is not the same document on the social costs dioxide concentrations. as $1 in the United States,” of climate change ended in one delegate remarked. But the drafting ran into stalemate last week. Repre- controversy when developing Also at issue is the value to be sentatives from developing nations, led by India, and placed on the ‘abatement countries attending the meet- China, challenged the use of costs’ of global warming. The ing refused to endorse a different criteria for measuring IPCC committee had calcu- suggestion that global warm- damage in countries of the lated that slowing down global ing would cause twice as North and of the South. warming could be more much economic damage to expensive than merely paying the industrialized nations as it The value put on a death in a for the damage caused by a would to the rest of the world. developed country, for exam- doubling in carbon dioxide ple, was calculated to be 15 Working Group III of the concentrations (1.5 - 2 per times higher than in a less Intergovernmental Panel on cent of GWP). industrialized nation. Such Climate Change (IPCC) has disparities result partly from But critics such as Aubrey been preparing a draft sum- the conversion of all estimates Meyer of the environmental mary for policy-makers of the of loss from national curren- group Global Commons Insti- damage likely to result from a

70 tute, based in London, disa- secretary to the IPCC, ac- attempt to finalize the policy- gree. knowledges disagreements makers’ summary of its report over putting a value on loss of at its next meeting in Mon- Meyer argues that cost- life. But he adds that industri- treal, Canada, in October. benefit analysis should not be alized nations’ representatives used to assess the damage Ehsan Masood are willing to consider alterna- likely to be caused by global tive methods of modelling. warming. “The difficulties of allowing for risk, or assessing At the same time, he points the value of a plant or animal out that developing nations species that becomes extinct, have so far failed to propose a are well known,” he says. single workable alternative. The IPCC working group will Narasimhan Sundaraman,

August 3 - New Scientist Global row over value of human life Fred Pearce ond Assessment Report, its because it implicitly endorsed ‘first full report on the science this approach. They called for ENVIRONMENTAL economists of climate change for five a common valuation of human are refusing to revise a con- years. The dispute threatens life—preferably at the higher troversial report on the social to hold up publication of the level. cost of global warming, which report early next year. One values the lives of people in Pearce replies that, while a solution to the impasse, rich nations up to fifteen common valuation of life suggests Pearce, is for the times higher than those in might be a legitimate ap- IPCC to remove the chapter poor countries. Critics claim proach, it was not what his from its report entirely. that the report suggests that team was asked to do by the action to halt global warming At issue are some of the IPCC. In any case, he says, if may not be cost-effective. techniques developed by life values were averaged out, environmental economists for the overall conclusions of the At a meeting of a working analysing the costs and ben- study would not change group of the UN’s Intergov- efits of preventing global much. There is, he says, no ernmental Panel on Climate warming. As part of this scientific basis for valuing all Change (IPCC) in Geneva late exercise, Pearce and his lives at the higher level. The last month, delegates from colleagues have placed values result is deadlock. Under IPCC India, China, Brazil, Cuba and on human lives that range rules, the summary must others vetoed a summary of from $1.5 million for people reflect the scientists’ text. the work. The meeting ended from the richest countries in deadlock amid calls for the But the politicians have re- down to $100 000 for those in report to be reworked. But fused to accept it, and the poorer developing nations. one of the authors, David scientists will not alter it. The valuations are based on Pearce of University College, assessments of a community’s Indian delegates first formally London, told New Scientist willingness and ability to pay complained about the IPCC’s this week: “ We won’t be to avoid risks of death. social cost analysis before the revising it, and we have no Climate Conference in Berlin intention of apologising for The chapter is complete and in April, when environment our work. This is a matter of cannot be changed, says minister Kamal Nath wrote to scientific correctness versus Pearce. But in Geneva, gov- ministerial colleagues round political correctness.” ernment delegations rejected the world claiming the calcula- as immoral and inaccurate the The study forms a chapter in tions were “absurd and dis- text of a summary of the the IPCC’s forthcoming Sec- criminatory”, and called for chapter for policy makers

71 them to be “purged from the “If these estimates had been risks of death assumed that process”. accepted, it would have incomes in poor countries will meant that the world commu- remain low. A key fomenter of dissent nity had been advised that among Third-World delega- But other IPCC work—on little need be done to slow tions is Aubrey Meyer of the trends in emissions of green- the warming process, be- London-based pressure house gases, for instance— cause it was cheaper not to,” group, the Global Commons assumes poor nations will he says. Pearce, however, Institute. After the Geneva grow richer. “If they get richer, denies that his work is a meeting, he claimed that they will be willing to pay blueprint for inaction. “There Pearce’s work shows that a more to save lives. The is plenty in our chapter to doubling of carbon dioxide economists’ valuation of justify action,” he says. “We levels in the atmosphere by future lives should reflect are specifically debarred from the middle of the next cen- that,” he says. making policy recommenda- tury would cause damage tions, but I am on record from climate change valued at many times personally calling between 1-5 and 2 per cent for action to address global of “gross world product”. warming.” But reducing emissions of Meyer says the cost-benefit greenhouse gases to prevent analysis contains other faults. such a rise would cost more For instance, estimates of than 2 per cent of GWP. “willingness to pay” to avoid

October 1995 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “A Recalculation of the Social Costs of Climate Change” – Aubrey Meyer and Tony Cooper

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

72 October - ASEED Newpaper Is one American worth fifteenfifteenfifteen Bangladeshis?

Aubrey Meyer, a South African cost of deaths due to global David Pearce said that his born musician has proved warming made up a large critics did not understand the that one person can make a part methodology. "The report difference when he took on simply says that people value of the total damage costs, the world's leading environ- risks differently. That valua- and was largely based on a mental economist, Professor tion is affected by the level of single study into the effects of David Pearce - and won. their incomes." a temperature rise on people Professor Pearce, when in fifteen US cities. The Two other IPCC economists, calculating the costs of cli- economists, had only consid- Samuel Fankhauser and mate change, had assumed ered deaths due to heat Richard Tol also responded to that the life of a Meyer, claiming person in the Third that the issue of World was worth different life values one fifteenth of the was a red herring. value of a West- They said no prob- erner. His report to lems with a global the Intergovern- average value of mental Panel on life for assessing Climate Change world damages. (IPCC), had a key However it would chapter rejected be an average because a number value, not the of Third World Western value, countries including which would not India, complained change the overall after being alerted results of their by Aubrey Meyer. work. They said Pearce's group had that Meyer's pro- calculated that if posal of valuing all nothing was done life at Western to stop Climate stress and storms, not due to levels was flawed because the Change, global warming disease or malnutrition. point of analysing damage would cost 1.5 - 2 of Gross Meyer's biggest challenge to costs in different parts of the World Product annually by the the economists was over their world was to assess differ- second half of the next cen- calculation of different values ences in vulnerability. tury. They had calculated that of life and property between action to limit global warming The summary for Policy rich and poor countries. would cost 2 of Gross World Makers that the IPCC pub- Based on how much people Product annually. Meyer lished did not use the econo- would pay to avoid the risk of argued that these calculations mists figures because of death from global warming, were based on flawed and Meyer’s lobbying. However, it the IPCC economists had immoral, assumptions. The emphasized that while the valued the cost of a lost life in economists' calculations were estimates for the damages to the West at $ 1.5 million and based on 2.5°C warming -the the industrialised countries at only $ 100,000 in the rest average of the IPCC predic- were only one to two percent of the world. Aubrey tion of 1.5 - 3.5°C. Meyer of GDP , estimates of dam- showed that the assessments Meyer called this "the eco- ages to agricultural Develop- of damage costs were based nomics of genocide". ing Countries were several on unreliable calculations. The times higher. The irony is that

73 the most of the responsibility Climate Action Network said an impartial body and open for global warming lies with that the single issue of the way for vested interests to the industrialised countries, Pearce's chapter should not interfere." which have been responsible have been allowed to distract for the vast majority of green- from the greater goal of house gas emissions. limiting climate change. Bill Hare, a Greenpeace consult- Not everyone in the environ- ant, complained that political mental community is happy pressure like Meyer's "would about what Meyer did. The destroy the IPCC's integrity as

September 30 - New Scientist Costing Calamity The fundamental problem most costly aspects of the the other, they divided apples with the calculations of the death and destruction seem- by oranges. value of human life by David ing to occur in the wealthy This increased the damage Pearce and his colleagues countries. figures for the poorer parts of (This Week, 19 August) is If WTP calculations are done the world so significantly that that they were carried out on correctly, the maldistribution alarm bells did not ring and a willingness-to-pay (WTP) they produce is so extreme the team was not alerted to basis rather than a willing- that almost everyone would the fact that it was using the ness-to-accept (WTA) one. find their use ridiculous and WTP approach in a confused The team’s choice of WTP had invalid. The figures show the and inappropriate way. the advantage of making it OECD countries suffering five In his letter to New Scientist the exclusive arbiter of the times as much damage as the last week, Samuel Fankhauser value of the damage likely to rest of the world, despite said that the costs of the be done by global warming, having only a fifth of its damage done by global enabled it to operate without population. warming and the costs of reference to what the victims But Pearce and his team abating that damage should of warming, such as small never reached this conclusion not be compared. island states faced with ob- because a mistake crept into livion from a rise in the sea We at GCI agree that they their work, which survived level, might be willing to should not be compared, peer review and was only accept as compensation. because, they are paid by pointed out by a non-econo- different sets of people. The If it had adopted WTA in- mist attached to the Global damage done by warming will stead, the compensation Commons Institute (GCI). hurt everyone and its costs demanded could have been Their error was to take dam- are therefore truly global. The so huge that the high levels of age estimates expressed in assessment of this should be fossil-energy use on which the terms of each country’s do- based on WTA. The costs of Western economic system is mestic price levels and divide abatement, however, should based could not continue. them by its gross domestic fall exclusively on that minor- product expressed in terms of But WTP has serious draw- ity of humankind which is the current exchange rate, in backs too. In particular, the causing the pollution and order to arrive at the propor- values it uses are based on which is benefiting from doing tion of its GDP that was likely how much money people so. The curtailment of this to be lost as a result of warm- have and, as a result, it should be based on the axiom ing. In other words, by using distributes the damage likely that “the polluter pays”. domestic purchasing power to be caused by global warm- on the one hand and interna- What this means in this case ing in an absurd way, with the tional purchasing power on is that those who cause

74 climate change through using Group III reconvenes to Aubrey Meyer fossil fuel should pay ad- discuss this issue in Montreal Global Commons Institute equate compensation to next month, Pearce and his London those who suffer the conse- colleagues should be told to quences. And what is ad- revise their chapter to prop- equate compensation? The erly reflect the global scale best approximation has to be and distribution of the dam- whatever sum is produced by ages. If they won’t do this, WTA calculations. they should withdraw their chapter so another team may In short, when the Inter- be assembled to prepare a governmental Panel on Cli- replacement using the WTA mate Change’s Working approach.

November 1 - Guardian Who says that life is cheap? When an impoverished phenomenon is with us and London Philharmonic Orches- viola player dared to take has been partly induced by tra and ballet score composer, on a world-renowned mankind - commissioned Aubrey Meyer. economist over whether a some 100 of the most emi- With tickets paid for at the cash value can be put on nent among them to investi- last minute by a widow in human life, the outcome gate the socio-economics Leamington Spa following a looked inevitable. As effects of climate change. piece in these pages, they global warming experts The economic tool with which flew out to Montreal in 1993 meet this week, Richard they hoped to make climate under the banner of the Douthwaite reports on how change a decision-making minute, underfunded Global an individual can help objective was “cost-benefit Commons Institute. They change world thinking analysis” (CBA). This involves checked into the YMCA and CAN one put a cash figure on estimating the cash value of walked over to the IPCC the value of the human lives all the damage likely to be meeting at which the report which will be lost as a result done by global warming and was being planned. Jim of global warming? Is there a comparing it with the cost of Berreen, a former ecology monetary figure for the worth acting to slow warming down lecturer and co-founder of the of the species which will or to stop it completely. The GCI and I went along as become extinct and the “efficient” solution, the econo- observers. coastal plains and islands mists were to argue, was only We sat at the back of the which will be submerged by to pay as much to stop warm- conference hall, behind the rising seas? Most ordinary ing as the benefits from national delegations and people would probably say stopping it were worth. alongside blue chip environ- not. But environmental econo- It was left to two extraordi- mental organisations such as mists are not ordinary people. nary ordinary people to point Greenpeace and anti-environ- In May 1993, the Intergovern- out that these economic mental ones representing US mental Panel on Climate emperors had no clothes. coal and oil companies. We Change - the world body of had a button to alert the One was a north London scientists charged by the chairman when we wanted to housewife and mother, Anandi United Nations to investigate speak, two microphones and a Sharan; the other, a self- every possible aspect of red light to tell us when we confessed obsessive about climate change and who only were “on”. Whenever he climate and equity, was a last week confirmed that the spoke, the hall’s sound system former viola player with the

75 made Aubrey’s faint South In the world economy, he “the economics of geno- African accent so pronounced pointed out, one man’s cost is cide” he sounded positively menac- another man’s pay packet. because it costed the lives ing. Consequently, the redistribu- that would be lost as a result tion of income that would It quickly became clear that of warming in poor countries result from a strategy of low the question the IPCC thought at $100,000 just a fifteenth of fossil fuel use could well lead the report ought to answer the value of lives in wealthier to higher levels of output of was: “How much global ones. Other Third World certain goods, such as educa- warming can be stopped damage was marked down tion, basic foods and clean without seriously slowing the too. drinking water, and leave rate of world economic billions of people better off. The draft’s overall finding was growth?’’ The idea of asking And that would be on top of that the industrialised coun- the economists to advise on securing the undisputed tries - those causing climate the best way of stopping change - would suffer warming entirely did twice as much damage as not it seemed, arise. all the rest of the world, Professor David although they have only Pearce of University 20 per cent of the world College London, a population and occupy world authority on less than 20 per cent of cost-benefit analysis, the world’s land area. This shared the IPCC view was despite the fact that and argued in a paper the draft itself showed that slowing down that 85 per cent of all the warming would inevi- low-lying land that is tably involve costs. By estimated will be lost this he meant that because of rising sea world output would levels would be in devel- inevitably be lower if oping countries, as would restrictions were three-quarters of the placed on the use of reductions in fresh water fossil fuel. supplies and 78 per cent of the extra deaths. Aubrey went on the attack, arguing that The draft also purported the world economy to show that the cost of was not operating at reducing greenhouse gas anything like maximum effi- benefits of stopping global emissions would probably be ciency at present, given the warming. Prof Pearce agreed, greater than 2 per cent of massive unemployment and but argued that this did not Gross World Product (GWP). waste of resources worldwide. change anything and the while the losses if greenhouse As a result he said, no econo- meeting took its planned gas emissions were not mist could prove that using course. A working group, curbed would amount to only less fossil fuel, more human WGIII was set up to write the 1.5 to 2 per cent of GWP. The labour and radically different report. Pearce was appointed implication, Aubrey argued, technologies would inevitably to the writing team for the was that if these figures were leave the world’s human cost-benefit chapter. The allowed to stand it would population worse off. And if Social Costs of Climate mean that the world commu- world output was not lower Change; Greenhouse Damage nity would do very little to there would be no world cost and the Benefits of Control. slow the warming because it although there might be a Aubrey and the GCI were would believe it was cheaper cost for the OECD nations, horrified when the first draft not to. Pearce and his team whose rate of consumption of this chapter was circulated had arrived at these figures might have to fall. a year ago. He called it by estimating how much

76 people would be willing to pay damage figures throughout approve the wording as a to avoid a higher death rate or the world. They also made package. It was passed. The having their land flooded. As allowances for possible posi- meeting was declared closed. people in poor countries can’t tive feedbacks the official Aubrey thought all was lost, offer to pay very much, their writers had ignored. but the Cubans had been in deaths and the damages they Their results were dynamite the queue to speak just before will suffer were valued at and were published in a the gavel came down. When much less than in wealthier special peer-reviewed paper this was pointed out, Bruce countries, skewing the inter- by the Ecologist magazine. was obliged to re-open the national distribution of the They showed the level of meeting. The Cubans then cost. uncertainty surrounding the rejected the amended wording Although this technique, the effects of warming to be so outright because GCI’s argu- “willingness-to-pay” method, great that by the year 2050, ments had not been an- is widely used in CBA, other the annual losses could swered. When Brazil backed economists argue it should be amount to anywhere between the Cubans with a formal applied only when a develop- 12% and 130% of GWP -that protest, Bruce had no option ment produces a benefit, and is, the total value of every- but to call a meeting specially not to value things as they thing produced in the world in to settle the issue. It took are. But Pearce’s team chose a year. At the higher end of place in Montreal three weeks not to use the “willingness to this range, life as we know it ago. In the three months pay method”. This would have would collapse. between the Geneva and asked people whose island Montreal meetings, several For the OECD countries, the homelands will disappear how unsuccessful attempts were damage could be anywhere much compensation they made to get the Pearce team between 0.6% and 17% of would require from fossil fuel to modify their draft. “We annual output, and for the users to accept their fate with won’t be revising it.” Pearce rest of the world, between equanimity. This approach told Fred Pearce, of New 25% and 250%. In other would obviously have led to Scientist. “This is a matter of words, life in the Third World entirety different results. scientific correctness versus could become impossible and political correctness.” Aubrey, working full-time and the number of people dying alone from his tiny bedroom in there annually from storms, In Montreal, pressure was put Willesden, north-west London, disease and starvation could on the Pearce team to incor- went on the attack.. He began be very much higher than the porate the GCI range of dam- circulating a letter to eminent 113,000 that Pearce and his age estimates. They refused, people all over the world, colleagues estimated. leaving the IPCC with the protesting at the unequal life choice of dumping their chap- The IPCC tried to get national valuation and seeking their ter entirely or leaving its delegations to approve their support. He collected 500 figures out of the draft report at a meeting in signatures, some from authors Policymakers’ Summary—the Geneva in June this year. It working on other sections of only part of the report over very nearly succeeded, but, the IPCC report. It generated which the UN body had direct largely as a result of the international press coverage. control. In the event, the signatures campaign, there (Pearce later described it as a chapter was not dropped, but was widespread unease about “silly campaign of misinforma- the summary effectively the Pearce section, and the tion and abuse”). disowns it. stating that “the chairman. James Bruce. of value of life has meaning Aubrey went further. To show Canada. sent it to a private, beyond monetary value”. how unreliable the draft governments-only committee chapter’s figures were and for consideration. The com- It was a triumph for Aubrey. how much they depended on mittee’s recommended word- But why has everyone been the assumptions on which ing came back to the full happy to leave him and his they were based, he and Tony meeting just 10 minutes handful of friends to fight Cooper, a statistician, recalcu- before it was due to end. with what is patently absurd. lated them. using the same the disputed estimates still What was the British govern- included. A vote was taken to

77 ment thinking of when it least as much growth could be generously grant aided Pro- generated building a new type fessor Pearce’s IPCC work. of economy as it can by Why was his team so deter- tinkering with the old? mined to produce figures that show that little need be done about warming that they refused to accept even the possibility of much worse damage happening? Was it that they couldn’t see that at

November 09 - Nature UN climate change report turns up the heatheatheat London. A report to the US$100,000, one-fifteenth of the report,’’ says James Bruce, United Nations on the eco- the value in a rich country. co-chair of working group nomic dimensions of climate three. As a result, the authors of the change may be published with chapter have decided to Under IPCC rules, authors of a key chapter missing unless a withhold their work unless chapters are responsible for dispute can be settled be- they are allowed to respond to overall editorial content. A tween the chapter’s authors criticisms of their calculations chapter cannot be published and delegates from develop- made in the summary, which by the panel unless all authors ing countries. is written by experts from transfer their copyright to the The chapter, which forms part governments, particularly climate body. One of the of an over-all study on the Cuba, India, Colombia and the authors of chapter six, William economic and social implica- Alliance of Small Island R. Cline, a senior research tions of climate change from States. “I would prefer to fellow at the Institute for working group three of the publish the chapter with an Inter-national Economics in Intergovernmental Panel on addendum making clear why Washington DC, agrees he Climate Change (IPCC), we [the authors] disagree would rather have the chapter suggests that the costs re- with the summary for policy- erased from the IPCC’s final quired to slow down green- makers,” says David Pearce, report than see it included in house gas emissions may director of the Centre for its present form. But although exceed estimates of damage Social and Economic Research Bruce concedes that the from climate change. of the Global Environment at omission of the contentious University College London and chapter “could cause prob- But the summary of the the lead author for chapter lems” for the IPCC, news of report, written explicitly for six. the chapter’s probable with- policy-makers and agreed by drawal is likely to be wel- the working group in Montreal A senior IPCC official has said comed in many developing last month, effectively cancels that any changes to the countries, as well as in the this conclusion. Its writers report’s content should have London offices of the Global argue that damage estimates been made during two earlier Commons Institute (GCI), a would be higher if the chap- rounds of peer review among group of environmentalists ter’s authors had used the governments and independent behind the campaign to same criteria to assess losses experts. “At this stage, the “rewrite or withdraw” the in rich and poor countries, authors can make a few chapter. rather than, for example, editorial changes for clarity of estimating loss of life of an reading, but not changes to GCI has successfully lobbied individual in a poor country at the meaning or substance of developing countries to call

78 for a recalculation of the not necessarily have in- an objective process when damage that would result creased the estimates for the authors spent much of from a doubling of carbon climate change damage in the the time reviewing each dioxide concentrations by the developing world. One of the other’s work?” he asks. year 2050 in a way that few known research papers to Meyer says that the rule that would require richer countries use the ‘willingness to accept’ authors cannot create litera- to shoulder more responsibil- method - from the Indira ture should be lifted. He adds ity for the effects of climate Gandhi Institute of Science in that the composition of au- change. Bombay - resulted in an thors should also better estimated $10.000 value for The chapter’s authors had reflect the world’s demogra- loss of life. valued the damage from phy; only two of the chapter’s climate change at 1.5-2 per Pearce claims that GCI has seven authors were from the cent of gross world product tried to turn an essentially developing world. (GWP), the market value of scientific process into a politi- But Pearce claims that Meyer all goods and services sold cal one. He says it should not and his colleagues have throughout the world. But have interfered with the behaved “irresponsibly” in GCI argues in a paper written process of independent seeking to have quantitative for The Ecologist that damage scientific inquiry. “The IPCC is references to damage esti- estimates would be higher - not a policymaking body. It is mates removed from the between 12% 130% GWP - if a body of scientific experts. summary, as “99 per cent of based on a formula that We had strict instructions all policy-makers will read this asked countries how much from the IPCC only to review section, not the whole report”. compensation they would be the existing literature and not willing to accept for the losses create any new literature.” The report is due to be ap- from climate change. proved at the IPCC’s next But Aubrey Meyer, the direc- plenary session in Rome next When the authors refused to tor of GCI, disagrees and says month. alter their calculations, GCI Pearce and his team “are in persuaded those responsible no position” to label others Ehsan Masood & Ayala for the summary for policy- with the charge of compro- Ochert makers to erase references to mising scientific objectivity. damage estimates, and Four out of the seven authors include phrases such as “the of the chapter, says Meyer, literature on the subject in are the most frequently this section is controversial”, recurring names in the chap- and “the value of life” and ter’s list of references. The “the loss of unique cultures” same four names, he adds cannot be quantified. form the majority of refer- ences linked to parts of the But Pearce argues that the chapter dealing with damage GCI formula “is not supported estimates.” How can this be by published data”, and would

79 November 24 - Times Educational Supplement Green economist faces picketetet profession in general”. Some A British economist is at the would cost more to alleviate UK environmental scientists centre of a row over his the damage caused by global have privately agreed with controversial contribution to warming than the damage him. an international report on itself will cost. global warming. The chapter successfully Critics also say that monetary value cannot be attached to Campaigners, who claim that passed both governmental lives. David Pearce’s methods rate and scientific peer review but third world lives at one 15th then upset the writers of its Professor Pearce, who is of the value of first world summary, which is read by director of the Centre for lives, are stepping up their policymakers around the Social and Economic Research actions, which will include world. The summary now says of the Global Environment, picketing his offices on that the authors would have said that critics did not under- Wednesday. drawn the opposite conclusion stand the methodology of the if they had valued all lives chapter. “The report simply David Pearce, an environmen- equally. says that people value risks tal economist at University differently. That valuation is College London, was leading Aubrey Meyer, of the Global affected by the level of their author for a chapter in the Commons Institute, which has incomes.” report, for approval next sparked much of the protest, month, of the Intergovern- said publishing the chapter He said that the alternative — mental Panel on Climate “will taint the IPCC irreparably to assess everyone equally — Change’s working group and permanently”. He said would increase the amount three. Group three assesses that the first working group’s spent on disaster aversion and the social and economic report, assessing climate foreign aid: “We would end up consequences of global change, “is clearly a scientific allocating all our national warming. effort. To suggest that the income to life-saving.” third group’s report is equally He and his co-authors pro- scientific is aggrandising their duced a result that suggests it work and the economics

November 30 - Nature Economics of climate change SIR — Further to your news “Social Costs” of climate much so that the Summary report on the economics of change (or “damages”) will be for Policy-Makers (SPM) of the climate change (Nature 378, included in the SAR. This “Social Costs” written by the 119; 1995), I write on behalf contains the now notorious governmental representatives of myself and the under- 15:1 mortality costing be- at the last WG3 meeting omits signed*. We note that the tween rich and poor people in reference to these quantita- Inter-governmental Panel on developed and developing tive damage results alto- Climate Change (IPCC) is now countries. This largely ex- gether. due to approve for publication plains why the overall damage In fact, rather than being a its full Second Assessment figures cited in the chapter ‘summary’ of the chapter, the Report (SAR) at its plenary (1.5-2 per cent of gross world SPM largely concentrates its meeting in Rome on 11-15 product) are so low. comments on how much December. Both the global and the re- higher the damage results The assessment by Working gional damage figures are would have been had nondis- Group Three (WG3) of the widely regarded as unsafe, so criminatory methods of valua-

80 tion been used. This has (Earth Sciences, Cam- produced a marked inconsist- bridge): Gerald Leach ency between the chapter (Stockholm Environment and its summary, which the Institute and IPCC lead authors of the chapter them- author): John Whitelegg selves have confirmed. (Ecologica UK); Ben Responsibility); Michael Matthews (East Anglia): Benfield (Town and Coun- If IPCC puts its imprimatur on Maneka Gandhi (ex-Envi- try Planning, University of this material by publishing it, ronment Minister, India): Newcastle upon Tyne); this unsafe and discriminatory Vandana Shiva (Centre for Wolfgang Sachs data will become official Science and Ecology); (Wuppertal Institute); advice to the UN negotiating Bittu Sehgal (Sanctuary Angelika Zahrnt (BUND/ process for at least the next Magazine): Medhar Friends of the Earth, Ger- five years. Paktar: Claude Alvarez many); Greg Samways This would give a disastrously (Third World Network. (Environmental Sciences. wrong signal at a time when India); Peter Newell (En- East Anglia): Susan it is becoming increasingly vironmental Politics. George (Transnational clear that serious policy Keele); David Smernoff Institute. Amster-dam); measures to arrest climate (Bay Area Action, Califor- Andrew McLellan (Institut change are now required and nia); Ernst von fur Umwelt- when the political tensions Weizsaecker (Wuppertal wissenschaften. Zurich); over the “differentiated re- Institute); Christine von Philip Smith (Interna- sponsibilities” in this task are Weizsaecker; Hans Peter tional Network of Engi- increasing as well. Duerr (Max Planck Insti- neers and Scientists for Global Responsibility); Moreover, if the IPCC goes tute for Physics): Freda Meissner-Blau Christian Azar (Chalmers ahead and publishes in these University of Technology, circumstances, it will violate (ECOROPA); Charles Levenstein (Massachu- Goteborg): Karl-Erik its own procedures. These Eriksson (Theoretical clearly state that approval of setts and New Solutions); Brian Moss (Environmen- Physics. Goteborg): P. R. the SPM signifies that it is Shukia (Indian Institute “consistent with the factual tal and Evolutionary Biol- ogy, Liverpool); George of Management, material contained in the full Ahmedabad and IPCC scientific and technical as- Marshall (Earth Action Resource Centre): John WG3 lead author); Tim sessment,” and this is clearly Lenton (Environmental not the case. Barkham (Environmental Sciences. East Anglia); Sciences, East Anglia and In these circumstances, Nicholas Hildyard (The Plymouth Marine Labora- IPCC’s reputation for proce- Ecologist], Rudolf Lippe tory). dural correctness and consen- (World Decade for Cul- sus-building around scientific tural Understanding, accuracy will be permanently UNESCO); Hartwig Spitzer compromised. Consequently (Center for Science and we urge the rejection of the International Security, “Social Costs” chapter in the Hamburg): Hans Jurgen report. Fischbeck (International Aubrey Meyer Global Network of Engineers and Commons Institute (GCI), Scientists for Global Re- 42 Windsor Road, sponsibility); Heinrich London NW2 5DS. UK Volkert (Protestant Fax +44 (0)181 830 2366 Church of Germany); e-mail Simon Naylor (Geography, [email protected] Keele); Martin Rees (Kings College Cam- Tom Wakeford (Biology, bridge); Philip Webber York); Nigei Woodcock (Scientists for Global

81 November 30 - Nature TTTemperature rises in dispute over costing climate change London. Sir Crispin Tickell, tions are to assign a value in over calls from one group, the one of the British govern- a developing country of one- Global Commons Institute in ment’s leading advisers on fifteenth the value in the London, that the chapter environmental policy, has developed world, as it is should be withdrawn (see stepped into a fierce contro- based on a country’s capabil- Nature 378,119; 1995). versy about a United Nations ity to pay for reduced risk. He One author has suggested (UN) report on the social and describes the results of this that this should be done on economic dimensions of method of calculation, the grounds that a summary climate change by suggesting known as ‘value of statistical designed for policy-makers that the use of cost-benefit life’, as “economists’ artefacts and written by a team of analysis in a key chapter of of doubtful value and subjec- experts from different govern- the report is inappropriate. tive character, with almost ments appeared to contradict unlimited capacity to mislead”. Tickell, formerly Britain’s the chapter. The summary ambassador to the UN, is now But Pearce, questioning does not contain quantitative warden of Green College, Tickell’s understanding of the damage estimates, on the Oxford. The author of a book techniques of cost-benefit grounds that such values are on climate change, he made analysis, says developing subjective. This author now the comments in an exchange countries cannot pay the appears to have withdrawn his of letters with David Pearce, same as the higher-income objections. And the IPCC says director of the Centre for developed world. “The re- the chapter will be included in Social and Economic Research sources have to come from the Second Assessment Re- on the Global Environment at somewhere,” he writes. “If, port due to be approved in University College, London, for example, they come from Rome next week. and one author of the forth- reduced foreign aid, we may However, a letter in this issue coming Second Assessment kill more people than we of Nature (see page 433), Report of the UN’s Intergov- save.” signed by 38 scientists includ- ernmental Panel on Climate Pearce cites the lack of pub- ing Sir Martin Rees, Britain’s Change (IPCC). lished literature exploring the Astronomer Royal, and Hans Tickell says cost-benefit impact of equal value statisti- Peter Duerr, director of the analysis “should not be the cal lives — an alternative Max Planck Institute of Phys- basis — still less the sole basis method for placing a value on ics, says the chapter must go, — for making policy”. But life — as another reason for on the grounds that a sum- Pearce says Tickell’s remarks not using Tickell’s ideas as the mary contradicting the chap- are “wholly out of step” with basis for calculations in Chap- ter’s contents violates IPCC government policy. “Being ter 6. “Our remit was to procedures. alone does not make you describe what the literature But not all environmentalist wrong,” writes Pearce, a lead says, not to rewrite it, nor do groups agree with this stance. author of Chapter 6 of the original research.” The Climate Action Network, section of the report prepared The exchange is likely to add an alliance of green groups by IPCC’s working group III. fuel to the debate already working in the field of climate “But it ought to make you raging about the methodology policy, says this single issue wonder if you have the basis used by the authors of Chap- should not be allowed to for making such a judgement.” ter 6 to estimate damage obstruct the greater goal of Tickell appears to disagree from climate change. The limiting the harmful effects of with the decision of the au- debate has pitted the authors climate change. The chapter thors of Chapter 6 to use a against government delegates contains “a lot of information technique for placing a value to the IPCC, and divided the relevant to policy-makers”, on loss of life whose implica- environmentalist movement says Bill Hare, a climate policy

82 adviser with Greenpeace integrity as an impartial body chapters calculate the costs of International. and open the way for vested slowing down greenhouse gas interests to interfere”, adds emissions, says the IPCC Hare also says the Second Hare. should arrange an interim Assessment Report will not be review — “perhaps a supple- the last word. The report will P. R. Shukia, professor of ment to the second assess- be discussed at a meeting of management sciences at the ment report” — that takes the Subsidiary Body on Scien- Indian Institute of Manage- notice of more recent litera- tific, Technical and Technologi- ment at Ahmedabad and a ture from the developing cal Cooperation before it is lead author for Chapters 8, 9 world. put to the Conference of and 10 of the report, agrees. Parties. Omitting Chapter 6 “We must not throw the baby Ehsan Masood before it is even published, out with the bath water,” he “would destroy the IPCC’s says. But Shukia, whose

December - Appropriate Technology Second victory on climate economics The economists who calcu- accept’ damages in the first lated the social costs of cli- place. mate change in terms of GCI is calling for the discred- people’s willingness to pay to ited chapter on the economics avoid damage, have effec- of climate change to be re- tively had their work rejected moved before the IPCC pub- for the second time at the lishes its findings. October meeting of the Inter- governmental Panel on Cli- Contact: Global Commons mate Change (IPCC). Institute, 42 Windsor Road, London NV/2 SOS, A Global Commons Institute UK. E-mail: (GCI) paper, criticized the [email protected]. economists for discriminatory The 20-page GCI paper is and arbitrary valuations, and available at £5 (NGOs), for a failure to allow for the £15 (institutions), plus higher range of temperature postage. forecasts made by IPCC scientists. Government representatives at the IPCC meeting in Mon- treal agreed with GCI, re- proaching the economists that ‘the value of life has meaning beyond monetary value’, but were not prepared to endorse the suggestions of some countries that research on action to prevent global warming should be based not on ‘willingness to pay’ the economic value of damages, but on ‘unwillingness to

83 1996 May - Climax TTTough… but true What really needs to be of greenhouse gas emissions. measured against the objec- done according to the Unlike many other envi- tive. If the commitments ronmental issues, the Climate aren’t strong enough - not in Global Commons Institute. Convention is driven by line with the objective, more Talk is Cheap, but Cli- science, rather than broad commitments are needed. mate Change is expen- grassroots concerns. There- However, this objective is not sive fore politicians feel no public in itself a legally binding pressure to act. commitment. The main out- The negotiations on climate come of the first conference But despite the weaknesses change seem to go on and of the parties (COP-1) to the of the 1990 IPCC report in on. What’s really on the Convention in Berlin was to suggesting policy measures, agenda for COP-2? start negotiations on how to the scientific message galva- meet the objective. The Over recent years, global nised governments to start current state of the debate is climate change has emerged negotiations, which were extremely complex. Countries as one of the most serious completed at the Earth Sum- are all trying to get the out- international issues which mit in Rio with the signing of come that most suits their faces our planet. the UN Framework Conven- national interest. In the 1990 report from the tion on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on (UNFCCC), Some countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have even Climate Change or IPCC (the Although at the time many threatened to pull out of the body set up in 1988 by the NGOs said that the Conven- convention if they don’t get UN to advise world leaders on tion was far too weak, certain their own way. A great deal is extent of the problem) it was sections of it have begun to depends on whether Clinton made clear that to continue have an impact. International wins the US presidential emitting greenhouse gases at negotiations are incredibly elections - since he is more the current rate was likely to tedious and slow moving, but likely to agree on a real lead to catastrophe. By that it is now possible see changes reduction in emissions. How- time however, it was clear that weren’t expected in ever the gap between the that the gap between the 1992. Article 2 of the conven- increasingly firm scientific scientists and the politicians tion - the objective - is espe- evidence of Climate Change on what must be done was cially important and states and the indecisiveness of the huge. The scientific working that “the ultimate objective of debate is striking. The 60% group of the IPCC stated that this convention is to prevent reduction in emissions of the in order for atmospheric dangerous anthropogenic 1990 IPCC is a million miles levels of carbon dioxide to be interference in the climate from the current discussions. stabilised at current (1990) system” - in non-UN speak to Even the stabilisation of levels, annual emissions from stop humans influencing the emissions from industrialised humans would have to be climate in catastrophic ways. countries at 1990 levels by reduced by 60-80%. Given that the Convention 2000 agreed in Rio will not be Under intense pressure from was to be reviewed in the reached by most countries. It industrialised countries, the light of ‘the best available will be impossible to persuade ‘Response Strategies’ working scientific evidence’, this has developing countries like, group of the IPCC (the group proved to be a surprisingly Brazil and Indonesia not to set up to work out what the firm commitment. increase their carbon dioxide policies to halt climate change The commitments nations emissions to Western levels should be) gave “no support make to combat climate unless they feel that the to the idea of a stabilisation change need to be constantly Western countries are making

84 a real effort to reduce their ‘Contraction and Conver- tions are possible. And the emissions. That’s why gence’. 60% cut can be achieved sustainability goes hand in within 45 years from now, if This is the message that GCI hand with global equity. we recognise that we have no will take to Geneva in July to other realistic options. The Politicians lack a sense of the 2nd Conference of the more time we delay starting urgency. They think people Parties to the Climate Change to reduce emissions the neither know nor care about Convention. steeper the curves will have climate change. We need to By contraction we mean a fall to be. make it clear that people in total carbon dioxide emis- across the world recognise the We must therefore deal sions. Drawing on the work of dander. They also refuse to immediately with the principal the Intergovernmental Panel recognise that it is not the obstacle to this programme. on Climate Change (IPCC), emissions that are the prob- And that problem is political. GCI believes that carbon lem, it’s the system that It is the forced and increasing dioxide emissions caused by causes the emissions. Our inequity of the global status fossil fuel must fall by at least current economic and political quo. In a nutshell, a minor- 60% against 1990 levels by system is based consumption ity of people increasingly the year 2040. of finite resources and pollu- consume too much at the tion. Only a change in eco- This would allow atmospheric expense of the majority of nomic organisation and con- levels of C02 concentration to people who consume very sumption patterns can stop return to their 1990 levels of little. This is true both within environmental destruction. 350 parts per million by and between nations. Cor- This is clear from the scientific volume (ppmv). Failure to do recting these inequities is not evidence - let’s make it clear this will not only trigger an act of charity. It is com- to the politicians. enormous social and environ- mon sense. One might even mental damage, it will also call it the economics of sur- Sustainability is eq- trigger massive political vival. After all, like everyone uity resentment towards the else, people who consume too nations who are primarily much are also at risk of the Aubrey Meyer from the GCI responsible for the over- damaging consequences of tells us what the real issues consumption, which is causing over-consumption. These should be at the climate this crisis. people cannot realistically negotiations. By ‘convergence’ we mean expect the rest of the world per capita resource use meet- to reduce their current con- The Global Commons Institute ing the same level in each sumption or their expecta- exists to explore and explain country. tions of increased consump- the linkage between Equity tion, unless the task and Survival. This linkage is Over-consumers must reduce likely to become increasingly their consumption levels by is shared fairly between all clear with the onset of hu- more than the global average people and all nations. This is man-induced global climate rate to make room for those especially true because if the changes. If the human causes who consume very little to global common property of climate change - principally increase their resource con- resources like the atmosphere fossil fuel consumption - sumption to a point where belong to anybody, they continue unchecked, more consumption levels are equal surely belong to all of us and more people in the between people. However this equally. At the moment dam- present and future genera- levels must be one which age to global common prop- tions will suffer increasing does not destabilise the global erty is clearly proportional to hardship. If the consumption climate system. This agenda income, but ownership of of fossil fuel is to be seriously of ‘contraction and conver- these resources is assuredly cut back to avoid this and gence’ is not going to be not. reduce the risks of a catastro- initially easy. The cuts in phe, a global plan must resource use and emissions emerge which achieves two for industrialised countries are What is the GCI? things: severe. However, these reduc-

85 GCI is an independent group The graph means? countries with high emissions of people, mostly based in the and low emissions could UK. GCI’s aim is the protec- GCI believes that countries easily be financed in a way tion of the Global Commons. should aim to reduce their which would lead away from The group works on the carbon dioxide emissions to dependence on fossil fuels, ecological, economic and 0.25 tonnes per person per towards renewable sources. political aspects of global year by 2040. At the moment, Some now say we need a new climate change. The GCI was emissions are roughly distrib- global ethic. As Buddhists founded in 1990 after the uted according to a country’s recognise, no one is saved Second World Climate Confer- GNP - the richer you are the until everyone is saved. GCI ence. GCI lobbied the Inter- more you emit. In the chart says that we will only be governmental Negotiating the existing 1990 distribution saved from global climate Committee for a Framework of C02 production is shown - change if a new ethic of Convention on Climate showing the large shares for equity and survival takes root. Change where we helped to countries such as Germany establish the language of and Japan. In the chart we equity in the Convention in estimate the effects of overall the run up to Rio. Since then, emissions contracting on a GCI has been part of the feasible curve to the year Economics Group of the 2040. By this time a 60% cut Intergovernmental Panel on in emissions from around 5.5 Climate Change (IPCC) where gigatonnes of carbon dioxide we successfully overturned to just over 2.5 gigatonnes the mainstream economic will have been achieved. ideas which asserted that the However in 2040 the distribu- value of climate-change- tion of emissions will be related damages to develop- according to population - so ing countries and their peo- shares for countries such as ples was less per unit than in India and China will be a the developed countries. much larger proportion of GCI does not have charitable total emissions. The table at status nor does it receive the bottom shows what these regular funding from any curves would mean for vari- source. We urgently need ous countries. It is vital that financial support to carry our the current income-based agenda to the COP-2. A distribution of resource use is substantial record of GCI’s replaced by equality between arguments and activities is all humans in the global available to anyone who may community. In the graph wish to offer us this support. annual per capita value for fossil fuel consumption has GCI, been reduced by 2040 to 0.25 42 Windsor Road, tonnes of carbon. While this is London NW2 5DS, UK a move in the right direction, Tel: +44 (0)181 451 0778 this alone will not solve the Fax: +44 (0)181 830 2366 problem of the historical Email: responsibility of the industrial- [email protected] ised countries who caused the problem in the first place. [email protected] However it is a plan within which everyone can agree to worn towards reducing emis- sions. Activities to reduce emissions which may be jointly implemented between

86 87 July 29 - The Big Issue Global mission impossible Aubrey Meyer is on a “It was clear it had nothing report is to play a key role in mission to save the world to do with calculating the advising world governments from economists’ solu- most efficient way of deal- on how to devise a strategy tions to global warming. ing with the problem. Their for tackling global warming. By Camilla Berens task was to work out the Meyer immediately started a How would you react if you slowest rate of increase in campaign to have the contro- were told that a group of emissions that the world versial chapter removed. He economists had calculated could afford. It was putting argued that by putting a lower that the value of someone economics before lives,” value on the lives of people in living in the Third World is just says the 49-year-old environ- poorer countries, govern- a 15th of an American or mentalist. ments could conclude that it European? would be cheaper to allow The economists’ findings were some countries to disappear This is not some madcap to be published in a weighty under the sea than to halt theory but the formula being IPCC report. When a draft of global warming. put forward to world leaders their chapter was circulated in as a yardstick to work out When you consider that the costs of controlling an estimated 85 per cent global warming. of all low-lying land and In 1990, the influential three-quarters of lost Intergovernmental Panel water supplies will be in on Climate Change (IPCC) developing countries, - a select group of scien- doing nothing because it’s tists set up by the United too expensive “is insanity” Nations to look into all he says. aspects of global warming A violinist and composer, - advised the UN that the Meyer gave up his career world would have to cut its 1994, Meyer’s worst fears in the late Eighties to focus on greenhouse gas emissions by were confirmed. The econo- the global warming debate 60-80 per cent in order to mists’ figures were based on full time. Working from his avoid catastrophic climate how much people were willing tiny London flat, he and three changes. to pay to insure themselves friends - an environmental against the potentially disas- As a result, the IPCC commis- lecturer, a computer software trous effects of climate engineer and the former sioned a team of leading- change, for example in the international economists to editor of the Green Party’s event of flooding, famine or newspaper - set up the Global investigate how such a sharp drought. reduction of emissions would Commons Institute. Their aim affect the world economy and “Their conclusion was that an was to act as an independent to advise on the best way to average person in the Third voice in the global debate on carry out such reductions. World would only be able to the greenhouse effect. pay $100,000, just a 15th of Meyer’s fears have even But when Aubrey Meyer, a those in wealthier countries,” worried members of the green campaigner with a says Meyer. “Basically, they’re scientific establishment. passionate interest in global saying that your right to be Among those expressing warming, read the econo- on this planet is proportional concern has been Sir Crispin mists’ briefing in 1993, he was to your income.” horrified. Rather than working Tickell, one of the British ‘ out the best way of stalling Meyer believes these calcula- Government’s leading advi- the effects of global warming tions were not just racist but sors on environmental policy. could lead to horrific conse- the-economists were going to In a letter to Professor David quences. The IPCC’s final work out the cheapest. Pearce, the lead author of the

88 chapter, Tickell asserted that ) closely, says the IPCC docu- escape the consequences of IPCC’s economic formula ment is now in a mess: global warming. Governments should not be the basis - still “Meyer has successfully must act before it’s too late.” less the sole basis - for mak- challenged the idea that ing policy, and that it had economics is the best method “almost unlimited capacity to of finding solutions to global mislead”. Professor Pearce warming but there is nothing responded to the controversy to go in its place.” by saying it was a storm in a Meyer and his colleagues teacup and would make no want governments to agree to difference to the results of the a gradual reduction in the chapter. amount of carbon emissions Despite a growing number of based on the principle that objectors, the chapter was the worst polluters be cut the eventually published last most. “Time is running out,” month, although the opening he says. “At best we have 50 summary acknowledged years. After that, political Meyer’s concerns. conflict caused by environ- Richard Douthwaite, a writer mental refugees, disease, and former economist who famine and water shortages has been following the debate will make our current life- styles impossible. Nobody will

November 17 - Scotland on Sunday Sharing fuel is the only way to save the planetplanetplanet Everyone knows that global mess and they are in no hurry Certainly not for the Bangla- warming is a catastrophe to change if that means taking deshis and the populations of waiting to happen. So why is lower salaries. small islands and low-lying so little being done to prevent coastal plains who will lose Only a minority of humanity is it? Aubrey Meyer blames their homes and land as the causing the problem. In 1990 buck-passing and economic sea level rises. Perhaps not for example, one third of the expediency even for ourselves and the world’s population used 80 of rest of Western Europe if the THE world is running the risk all fossil energy and enjoyed Gulf Stream falters and our of catastrophic climate change 94 of total world income. The year-round temperatures fall as a result of global warming; other 2/3 had to scrape by on to those of Labrador. but no one has yet taken the remaining 6. determined action to avert it. Since what is efficient for To make the energy-intensive some is not efficient for all, The reason is that the prob- countries’ inertia seem more the economists’ approach lems involved in doing so are reasonable, their economists must. be abandoned. Instead, enormous since there is an have come along with ‘effi- a declining but iincreasingly almost perfect correlation ciency’ arguments to the equitable distribution of the between the rate at which effect that since it is not ‘cost- right to use fossil energy countries emit the gases effective’ to reduce emissions among everyone living on this which cause warming and beyond a certain point, some planet is the only way that we their national incomes. In a rise in world temperatures is are likely to forge an interna- nutshell, those making the inevitable. tional agreement to avert the money are those making the But cost-effective for whom? looming crisis.

89 Mrs Thatcher’s ‘Green’ speech tem as a whole. if this is true, how do we to the UN in 1989 tried to blur achieve this 3% annual Based on the perspective these tensions, about who growth in the global economy obtained from their computer was vulnerable, who and what without precipitating a climate models of global climate, the was to blame and what should catastrophe? Or put the other IPCC scientists also made a be done. She suggested, way around, how do we “confident” judgment which ludicrously, that the rise of achieve at least 60% cuts in has become a notorious issue greenhouse gas concentra- C0 emissions to stabilise the for policy-makers: to restrain 2 tions in the atmosphere was rising concentrations of green- greenhouse gas concentra- largely due to slash-and-burn house gases in the atmos- tions in the atmosphere just agriculturalists in the Third phere, without major contrac- to 1990 levels would require World. Also, and in spite of tion of the economy? A 60% immediate 60-80% cuts in Chernobyl, she claimed that advance in the use of nuclear their emission rates. increased reliance on nuclear energy would turn an already power was the only way to This simple statement was unstable world into a larger mitigate the primary cause of and remains a bomb-shell. unexploded bomb than it is the warming, namely the Although we know what has sane even to dream of. Selec- to be done, we continue to do carbon dioxide (CO2) emis- tively getting rid of slash-and- sions from fossil fuel use. Burn farming would not sig- Things have moved on since nificantly affect the composi- then, but mostly in favour of tion of the atmosphere since new and dafter forms of most of what is burned grows passing the buck. again with the carbon dioxide released being ‘recaptured’ in In early 1990, the Intergov- the regrowth. ernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC) published its Sadly, the ideology behind the first assessment of the issue Thatcher UN speech has of global warming. In this, the constantly avoided the real “world community of climate problem which is that equality scientists agreed that global precedes efficiency in the mean temperature had risen sustainability stakes. So the opposite and emissions by around 0.5°C since the vested political and economic continue to rise. Fossil fuel- beginning of industrialisation interests maintain their os- burning accounts for 80% of and that greenhouse gas trich-like ‘growth-at-the- human CO emissions; the concentrations in the atmos- 2 expense-of-climate’ priorities, exponentially expanding phere had risen during this even if some things at least formal global economy is 95% period by 25% to an come out more clearly into the dependent on fossil fuel use; unprecedentedly high level. It open. Initially the problem and there is a nearly 100% was also revealed that there was denied. But as evidence year-on-year correlation was a significant correlation of adverse trends and human between fossil fuel use on the between these emissions, cause mounted, the drum- one hand and income or Gross their accumulation in the beat of ‘cost-effectiveness’ World Product (GWP) on the atmosphere and the conse- and ‘efficiency gains’ was other. The two oil shocks quent temperature rise be- banged out to a cartoon of during the 1970s, for exam- cause of the heat-trapping technical fixes that would ple, showed a loss of GWP character of the gases. Major embarrass Walt Disney. which almost perfectly mir- adverse impacts were pre- rored the contracted use of Take ‘cost-effectiveness’ in dicted such as sea-level rise, fossil fuel. The predicted trend this context. Economists increased food insecurity, is that fossil fuel use rises at moved into the IPCC in 1993 droughts, floods, storms, 2% per annum globally, and saying, ‘cost-benefit analysis’ disease-migrations, rising GWP at around 3%. was the solution to this prob- human mortality with - in lem - the cost of the damage extremis - possibly runaway Received wisdom says that should be compared to the effects because of major economic growth is the sine cost of prevention to estab- equilibrium shifts in the sys- qua non of human welfare. So

90 lished cost-effective policy. and relative exercise of ‘effi- they can get better even if Making everything propor- ciency gains’ in the context of the world’s poor - must be tional to income, the econo- economic growth. Frankly, liquidated. Surely reality tells mist subsequently ‘proved’ there is no point in spending us this is deluded nonsense. that prevention was the vastly any more of the world’s There is an international more expensive option. But income on the diminishing solution, which we at the the costs of cutting pollution returns of efficiency gains in Global Commons Institute were exaggerated because in attempts to develop and (GCI) have called ‘Contraction effect the polluters were deploy sci-fi technical fixes and Convergence’. auditing their own inconven- (such as mirrors in the sky ience costs. And the costs of and deep-sea de-position of It proposes contraction of the damages were depreci- frozen C02), unless it is set in fossil fuel use with interna- ated because they were the prior and absolute context tional consumption converg- mostly expected to occur in of restraint. The risks are just ing from the present distribu- parts of the world where too high. Fossil fuel consump- tion, where consumption is people had little or no money tion, regardless of all other proportional to income, to and were basically regarded considerations, has to be equitable and sustainable as expendable. contracted and contracted levels on a per capita basis equitably from now on, if we globally, in other words pro- The value of mortality, for are to avoid the worst of the portional to population. example, between poor and climate changes to come. rich countries was compared International equity becomes on the basis of 15 dead Recently we were offered the the price of survival. Without Bangladeshis equal one dead latest scam of the polluters this, we conjoin with a trend Englishman. One economist and their economists: more towards the rich finally com- quite typically declared that dollars now for less pollution mitting suicide by continuing Bangladesh was too poor to later, ‘the economics of de- to rob the poor. be worth saving from sea- layed action’. This has been Aubrey Meyer, director of level rise. Understandably, one of the most alarming the Global Commons this approach was dubbed features of the policy content Institute (GCI), will de- “the economics of genocide” of the IPCC’s Second Assess- liver a lecture on global in the Third World press. It ment Report published earlier warming on Tuesday at was then denounced by the this year. Predictably, industry 6pm in the Quaker Meet- Indian government at the has leaped on to this ‘ band- ing House, Victoria Ter- 1995 round of the UN climate wagon of delayed-action race, Edinburgh negotiations and the IPCC’s where the argument is that economists were subse- before we can do the right quently rebuked for their thing we must first become prejudicial methods and daft rich and then richer. results. Economists now tell us that Then again, take the dubious things must get worse before

91 1997

February - Countryside Magazine Now the big one The RSPB deserves credit also “Although the rate of this It took John Gummer, the for highlighting another major change in world tempera- UK’s environment secretary, environmental problem, tures - and where they will and Tim Wirth, head of the global warming. It joined with occur -is still unpredictable, US delegation, to bring the the World Wide Fund for we do know that the im- negotiations back on Nature to announce that pacts are potentially devas- course. climate change and resulting tating affecting food, water, “It is difficult to put a price sea level rise threaten the health and very survival of tag on stabilising emis- future of the UK’s great humankind,” he said. sions- but it is even more estuaries and the wildlife they support. The society calcu- lated that 99 per cent of wintering grey plover, 88 per cent of avocet, 75 per cent of dark bellied brent geese, 64 per cent of knot, 61 per cent of black-tailed god-wit and 54 per cent of shelduck used areas at risk of sea level rise. Barbara Young, the society’s chief executive, said: “Global climate change particularly threatens long distance migrants. These birds depend on the use of UK estuaries as ‘stepping stones’ to make their incredible journeys. Unless urgent action is taken Among many very serious difficult to put a price on to reduce global emissions of consequences might be factors that cause budget greenhouse gases, these migration, homelessness, deficits, such as homeless- journeys and the birds that pressure on land and the ness, disaster relief and make them will not survive.” spread of tropical diseases disease eradication.” More than 2,500,000 wildfowl like malaria and dengue fever. “It is time we took a stay in the UK for the winter, “At the last international longer-term view and put most of them on estuaries. climate change meeting into action some short-term Millions more use the estuar- both governments and non solutions.” ies as fuelling points on their governmental organisations way to Northern breeding What can we do? watched in frustration while grounds in Spring, or on their a small but highly organ- Energy conservation is the way south to wintering areas ised group of industrialised key to reducing carbon emis- on the African coast. countries, led by the oil and sions. Reduction in car jour- A WWF spokesman said a fossil fuels lobby, tried to neys and the use of high consensus of scientists now hold the negotiations to consumption cars would be a agreed that human activity ransom with blocking step as would home insula- was a major cause of climate tactics and obfuscation,” tion, and widespread use of change. says the WWF. “ bicycles!

92 Also one might support the Global Commons Institute of 42 Windsor Road London NW2 5DS whose director is Aubrey Meyer.

March 1997 - ZEW Centre for European Economic Researchesearchesearch “Man-Made Climate Change Economic Aspects and Policy Options” – Chapter 15: The Kyoto Protocol and the Emergence of “Contraction and Convergence” as a framework for an international Political solution to greenhouse gas emissions abatement

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

93 March 13 - Nature US seeks greenhouse gas cuts from the Third WWThird orldorldorld

[LONDON] US delegates to China, which leads the block enues lost as a result of the the United Nations (UN) of 77 developing countries protocol, which may force climate convention clashed known as the G77, has threat- their customers to switch to with those from developing ened to pull out of the talks ‘greener’ forms of energy. countries, the European Union unless the US proposal is One environmentalist group, (EU) and environmentalist withdrawn. Privately, however, the London-based Global groups last week over US some G77 delegates are Commons Institute, has proposals to include commit- understood to be attracted to emerged as a surprise sup- ments from the developing the idea of differentiation porter of the US plans which, world in a proposed protocol between responsibilities as a it believes, “have the poten- for reducing greenhouse gas possible basis for calculating tial” for providing a more emissions. commitments after Kyoto. equitable basis of emissions At present, only developed The EU, the Alliance of Small reductions. countries are required to Island States (AoSIS) and The institute’s director, Aubrey reduce their greenhouse gas environmentalist groups, such Meyer, points out that the emissions, according to an as the Climate Action Net- European position is also agreement on the terms of a work, have also criticized the based on a form of differentia- future protocol reached two plans. They prefer the sim- tion, as poorer countries, such years ago. The protocol itself pler, but politically more as Greece and Portugal, have has to be agreed at the next challenging, goal of a stand- been allowed to increase their annual conference of the UN ard reduction in emissions for emissions. He believes the US climate convention, which is all developed countries only. plan could “go far with one or due to be held in December in They also want to avoid two big G77 names” on its Kyoto, Japan. complicating talks further by side. ensuring that commitments But at a meeting of signato- from developing countries are But the prospect of reopening ries to the convention in Bonn not discussed until after the terms of the protocol last week, at which countries Kyoto. upsets campaigners such as presented their initial negoti- Merylyn McKenzie Hedger of ating positions, the US delega- AoSIS and environmentalist the World Wide Fund for tion — apparently with one groups favour the toughest Nature. “[This idea] risks eye on potential difficulties in measure: a 20 per cent cut in stalling everything,” she says. Congress — suggested that greenhouse emissions by “Let’s concentrate on what’s the original terms of the 2005. EU environment minis- achievable.” Nevertheless she proposed protocol may need ters announced a target of believes that a split in G77 rewriting. reducing emissions by 15 per ranks could increase support cent of 1990 levels by 2010. US officials have tabled sug- for a flat-rate reduction. A 10 per cent reduction would gestions that some developing be achieved through meas- But one developed country countries should be encour- ures in individual countries delegate says the United aged to begin reducing their (see figure, above right), with States is unlikely to risk derail- emissions voluntarily, with all a further 5 per cent reduction ing the protocol. Rather, he countries taking some steps through other policies and believes the US plans are by 2005 — possibly according measures. likely to help shape the terms to a formula in which of a future protocol that wealthier countries would Australia, a large coal pro- includes developing countries, make proportionately higher ducer, and the oil-exporting but which will be settled after reductions, termed differentia- countries are calling for the Kyoto talks. tion. compensation for any rev-

94 The US plan also supports the tion in exchange for cash or ‘borrow’ emissions from a creation of a market in green- environ-mental technologies. future period to assist current house emissions. Countries A country purchasing this compliance. needing to make small reduc- ‘entitlement’ could credit it Ehsan Masood tions to meet a national target towards its own emissions could agree to an extra reduc- target. Another idea is to

April 2 - Guardian A global gas meter Aubrey Meyer wants every month reflect these shifts of ments if they pay into a risk- country to be given a fuel- attitude. Since it would be compensation fund. The level burning limit unacceptable for the US to of risk would be under con- dictate what level of emissions tinual review and countries THE United Nations’ efforts to will be permitted in future, would have to re-absorb their a devise a framework so that their proposals steer clear of emissions if the risks were too the countries of the world can doing this. But they provide a high. Countries which bust the reduce their carbon dioxide potential framework for limits limit would face penalties and emissions seem, at last, to be and could lead to an interna- would not be allowed to moving in the right direction. tional management for han- increase their international We now accept that warming dling the problem. competitiveness by using too much fossil fuel. is a serious problem; we know Another hopeful sign is that there are limits to the the European Parliament has This idea may appeal to the amounts of fossil fuels we can just approved a modified Americans, who regard the consume. We must work out version of a Global Commons EU’s current proposals for now who gets to burn what proposal, based on each substantial industrialised- and how much. There is also person’s equal right to emit. If countries only cuts as totally consensus that the market adopted internationally, this unrealistic. Developing coun- cannot be the sole arbiter of would lead to a reduction in tries could well accept the how much fossil energy each the world greenhouse gas proposals too, since they will country can consume, as this emissions. be able to sell any unused would entrench the economic emission rights to over-con- The reduction in emissions power of those wealthy indus- suming industrialised nations. could stabilise the atmos- trialised nations which created Because they can increase pheric concentration of the the problem. their emissions in the short- main greenhouse gas, carbon term, they can make capital The equity and survival ap- dioxide, at around 450 parts investments to allow their proach that my organisation, per million. This compares production systems to stay the Global Commons Institute, with the current level of within limits in future while has been urging since 1990, is 360ppm, so, even if it is still improving living stand- gaining ground. Under this, adopted, further warming is ards. each person on the planet has inevitable. Our model could be an equal right to emit what- adjusted to a lesser impact, ever limited amount of gas but this would require even proves to be sustainable and greater political will. governments would be issued with permits to match their The European Parliament’s populations. version has a small contin- gency budget on top of the The proposals tabled by the basic scheme, so countries US at the climate change can buy additional entitle- negotiations in Bonn this

95 June - Rio+5 NY Linking Equity and Survival

The enclosed colour all coun- sents the total of human C02 As we commence this awe- try “Contraction and Conver- emissions retained in the some task of trying to save gence” regime shows a cut of atmosphere since that year. ourselves from a potential 60% in annual C02 emissions runaway climate disaster, we The international political levels by 2100 as compared have little alternative. The quarrel over the annual C02 to 1990. However, atmos- left-hand vertical axis shows emissions totals so far has pheric concentrations of C02 gigatonnes of carbon from profoundly avoided this ratio continue to rise to 450 ppmv C02 from fossil fuel burning. of emissions to concentrations over the next century (to over In this graphic (which is and therefore the central 70% above pre-industrial simply one of any number of point of the United Nations levels) in spite of this contrac- possible scenarios of future Convention on Climate tion of human C02 emissions. international consumption/ Change (UNFCCC). The total It is this persistent atmos- entitlements patterns running annual emissions output in pheric retention of C02 emis- the GCI CCOptions software), 1990 was around 6 sions which is at the heart of the programme of “Contrac- gigatonnes. What we abso- the emerging crisis of human- tion and Convergence” from lutely have to focus on is the induced climate change. 1990 through to 2100 is dangerously accumulating entirely a mathematical Damages from raised atmos- C02 stock total in the atmos- invention. It absolutely is not pheric C02 concentrations, phere from the past and into a “trend-prediction”. It is a and the resultant temperature the future. We must recognise prescriptive planning model. increases, will intensify in that this upward curve of It is not an attempt to guess spite of the vigorous abate- atmospheric concentrations is how the global community ment which is specified in the going to take many decades might behave on the issue of “Contraction and Conver- of vigorous action to merely energy consumption if left to gence” chart shown for avoid- stabilise, let alone reduce. its own inclinations for liber- ing the worst of the damages. This represents the profound alisation, marginal taxes and The elongated graphic along- global double-jeopardy of efficiency gains. side this text attempts to rising ecological and political portray this dilemma. The stress where we do the “right The graphic delineates a proportion of what is retained thing” but things continue to programme of “Contraction in the atmosphere from 1990 get worse. The inserted and Convergence” where forwards will be at least colour-print sheet: - shows “Contraction” is the global slightly more than half of the global fossil fuel consumption process of cutting global C02 total emitted. This is the tall for all countries since 1860 emissions by a certain per- line curve rising from 1990 to through to the present. It also centage by a certain target around 350 gigatonnes (bil- suggests how future interna- date. The absolute purpose of lion tonnes) of carbon by tional entitlements to con- “Contraction” is meeting (one 2100. Visually this dwarfs the sume fossil fuel might be interpretation of) the objec- “Contraction and Conver- structured consistent with tive of the United Nations gence” programme of annual both the objective and “basis Convention on Climate C02 emissions. To make this of equity” in the United Na- Change (UNFCCC) namely: - connection, refer to the colour tions Convention on Climate “to achieve ... stabilization of graphic and then recognise it Change (UNFCCC). In other greenhouse gas concentra- as the black and white blip words, it suggests what could tions in the atmosphere at a shrunk to near invisibility at be considered consistent with level that would prevent the bottom of the graphic the common sense require- dangerous anthropogenic alongside this text. The other ment for international fairness interference with the climate line which rises upwards from and structural reconciliation system.” 1860 to more than 450 between all actors and parties The “convergence” dynamic gigatonnes by 2100, repre- to the UNFCCC.

96 within the “contraction” Particularly during the “con- programme is based on a vergence period”, the econo- judgment that a unitary - mies of the high-end per even constitutional - focus is capita consumers the indus- required for resolving the trial countries, who contract deteriorating international soonest and to a greater disagreement about globally extent than the 60% mean “common but differentiated global contraction, could buy responsibilities” under the permits from the economies UNFCCC. of the low-end per capita consumers whose entitle- In GCI’s view, this focus is the ments rise during the “con- imperative of accepting a vergence” period. formal allocative process of “convergence” to equal and Whilst the greater purchasing sustainable levels of C02 power of the high-end con- entitlements on a per capita sumers makes this purchase basis globally. In this graphic possible, the trade would the “convergence” date was have the potential effect of set for the UN Centenary in generating major revenue for 2045. In other words, by that the low-end consumers to year equal per capita carbon purchase and deploy post- entitlements will have been carbon energy technologies reached globally. The inter- and substantially avoid future country representation of this carbon emissions thereby. shows that countries’ entitle- If such an international pro- ments under the global cap gramme was proactively are exactly proportional to engaged and soon, the their populations from the avoided emissions - particu- “convergence” year forward. larly in developing countries - The “convergence” date would substantially retard the would be negotiated reconcil- rate at which accumulating ing the past carbon debt of atmospheric C02 concentra- the industrial countries with a tions lock-in rising global bearable future balance of disbenefit under the status international emissions trad- quo, whilst not compromising ing, under the overall disci- - in fact quite possibly en- pline of continuing global hancing -developing country restraint. energy and general develop- If that seems prescriptive - ment paths. and it is - it is preferable to Those who make the argu- the status quo where we are ment that “global problems prescribing ourselves to require global solutions” oblivion because of a nearly where the problem is global chaotic failure of the political warming are quite right. But process to engage with the the political price for this is severity of this global crisis. global “convergence” and Some flexibility can be recognising that “global achieved through the interna- solutions” - and therefore tional trading of these C02 “contraction” - will be entitlements, and trade is unachievable without it. assumed in this regime. In Equity and survival are thus fact it could be a way of functionally linked; QED. achieving two crucial things. by Aubrey Meyer

97 July - Outreach Rio+5 Contraction & Convergence a global solution to the global return to 1990 levels of 350 globally - the logical “basis of climate crisis ppmv by 2100. equity” in the UNFCCC. Only such an approach has the Global Climate Change links Already rising levels of dam- possibility of securing and Survival to Equity. If the ages attributable to global stabilising the long-term human causes of climate climate changes indicate the international co-operation and change -principally rising 50 year path may well be restraint required to achieve fossil-fuel consumption - more prudent. Low-lying the dauntingly serious objec- continue unchecked, very countries like Bangladesh and tive of the UNFCCC. All our many people of present and the small-island states already survival increasingly depends future generations will suffer favour such a path because of on this. increasing adversity and huge the forecast sea-level rises numbers will not even sur- which threaten them with Convergence therefore is to vive. So if this consumption is oblivion. A constant process equal fossil fuel consumption to be seriously cut back, a of monitoring damages result- levels on a per capita basis global plan must emerge ing from climate changes globally over an agreed time- which formally links survival linked to public opinion and frame. In this, above average and equity in a dynamic scientific review, could help consumers will progressively global policy framework. the United Nations Convention contract their consumption levels by more than the global The contraction of overall on Climate Change (UNFCCC) average rate of contraction. greenhouse gas emissions for shape this global budget in This will make room for those survival must be politically everybody’s survival interest. whose per capita consump- enabled through the equity of However the future allocation tion levels are below average a planned convergence of of international emissions to increase their consumption international per capita con- entitlements under this until the agreed date by sumption patterns to equal budget cannot be determined which consumption levels are and sustainable levels. With- by science. equal between all people out at least the acceptance in Nor can the allocation be globally, whilst collectively principle of such a framework, determined by existing pur- being at levels which do not we face a continued political chasing power disparities in destabilise the global climate stand-off in the United Na- the international markets, an system. The earlier the nego- tions negotiations on Climate argument which until recently tiated convergence date, the Changewhich will persist the industrial countries were greater share to the develop- beyond Kyoto. reluctant to forgo. In the ing countries, and they are Drawing on the work of the name of efficiency, such an powerfully placed to force a Intergovernmental Panel on approach would simply con- hard bargain at this time. Climate Change (IPCC), tinue to inflict social and From the convergence date Global Commons Institute environmental costs on the onwards, the contraction (GCI) advocates that global vulnerable and innocent third process would continue on a fossil fuel consumption must parties which the markets pro rata basis globally. contract by at least 60% consistently deem to be by Aubrey Meyer against 1990 levels within 100 expendable. This would years. According to the cli- become an unstoppable mate models, this would vicious cycle in a world where cause atmospheric levels of money and people are already C02 concentration to stabilise increasingly polarised. Com- at 450 parts per million by mon sense must prevail. volume (ppmv) by 2100. If A political process must now the same was done in 50 emerge with a constitutional years, the models indicate a focus on equal human rights

98 November 20 - Nature Equity is the key criterion for developing nationsnationsnations

If the Kyoto meeting fails to weak agreement may spell United States is likely to be reach a satisfac-tory outcome environ-mental catastrophe. asked not to block agreement many leaders of developing In the middle lie India, China on targets that would enable countries are aware that they and the other large industrial- developing coun-tries to may be asked to share re- izing countries of the Far East reduce emissions to a per- sponsibility for the failure. and Latin America, who will capita limit — instead of a flat The question occupying the resist any agreement that percentage reduction. minds of top civil ser-vants would harm their industrial The countries that support from Brasilia to Beijing, al- growth. this stance believe it to be a ready under pressure to How developing countries more equitable way of dis- reduce their greenhouse gas choose to respond to the US tributing emissions reduc- emissions sooner than they proposals remains the key tions. want, is simple: how should question up to, and even they respond? A per capita-based solution after, Kyoto. There are three would set an emissions limit, So far, the Group of 77 devel- possible scenarios. Under the or ‘cap’, to a specified num- oping countries, which in- first, the US conditions will be ber of tonnes of carbon per cludes India, African states, unanimously opposed, even if person a year. Countries the Middle East, Southeast this means no agreement at emitting more than this would Asia and the whole of Latin Kyoto. Under the second agree to reduce their emis- America apart from Argenti- scenario, developing countries sions to the required cap by na, has been united in its will split between those who an agreed date. Countries opposition to the US propos- agree to support the United that emit below the cap als (see above) for developing States, and those who refuse. would be allowed to increase country commitments. The third scenario would see their emissions up to the limit Unsurprisingly, the poorer developing countries as a (see graph right). countries argue that the rich group striking a deal with the Per capita solution? must take the lion’s share of United States in which they responsibility for combating agree to reduce their emis- Those who have been pro- global warming, on the sions at some point in the moting the idea that the grounds that they are the future, but with the United world’s emissions could prime cause of current prob- States providing them with converge on a single, per- lems. Until this happens, the something in return. capita figure include the Lon- G77 countries say they will don-based environmentalist Despite their public opposition also refuse on principle to lobby group, Global Commons to the idea of immediate discuss the issue of emissions Institute. Aubrey Meyer, GCI’s commitments from develop- trading or joint implementa- director, says that, if a per ing countries, many officials tion. capita strategy were to be from the G77 and China followed, global concentra- But the G77 is an uneasy (which is not a member of the tions of carbon dioxide could coalition. At one end of its group) seem reconciled in stabilize by 2030 at a level of spectrum of opinion are the private to the idea of a ‘non- 450 parts per million by oil states, including Saudi binding’ side agreement — a volume of the atmosphere. Arabia, Kuwait and Venezuela, ‘Kyoto mandate’ — attached (This is still well above the which would prefer a weak to the main treaty. Under this, pre-industrial level of 280 agreement that does not developing countries would parts per million; atmospheric harm sales of oil. At the other make a non-binding promise carbon dioxide concentrations are the small island states to reduce emissions by a at present are 360 parts per and low-lying countries, such certain amount from a speci- million.) as Bangladesh, for which a fied date. In return, the

99 Partly at Meyers suggestion, Morgan describes the intro- this idea has already been duction of the developing Globe is engaged in its own formally adopted by the country issue at Kyoto as a lobbying campaign. When African group of countries, led flawed strategy which could governments and environ- by Zimbabwe. A variation of imperil the prospect of a mentalist groups were pro- this strategy also lies behind legally binding treaty. She testing against the Byrd the decision by European- fears that the United States resolution in the US Senate, Union member states to back might use the developing Globe took what some saw as an average 15 per cent reduc- countries as an excuse to the extraordinary step of tion; countries such as Portu- gal and Greece would be allowed to raise emissions, Per capita solution? while others, such as the United Kingdom and Ger- Those who have been promoting the idea that many, would reduce theirs by the world’s emissions could converge on a sin- more than 15 per cent. gle, per-capita figure include the Lon-don-based But some European countries environmentalist lobby group, Global Commons — the United Kingdom in Institute. Aubrey Meyer, GCI’s director, says particular — remain nervous that, if a per capita strategy were to be fol- about the idea of differenti- ated responsibilities based on lowed, global concentrations of carbon dioxide per capita emissions being could stabilize by 2030 at a level of 450 parts applied elsewhere. According per million by volume of the atmosphere. (This to a senior British official, this is still well above the pre-industrial level of 280 is primarily because of the parts per million; atmospheric carbon dioxide difficulty in deciding the level at which the cap is set. concentrations at present are 360 parts per million.) A per capita solution is also opposed on strategic grounds Partly at Meyers suggestion, this idea has al- by most environmentalist ready been formally adopted by the African groups, in particular the group of countries, led by Zimbabwe. A varia- Climate Action Network, an tion of this strategy also lies behind the decision umbrella group of most of the world’s climate-related non- by European-Union member states to back an governmental organizations. average 15 per cent reduction; countries such Indeed, CAN is lobbying as Portugal and Greece would be allowed to developing countries not even raise emissions, while others, such as the United to respond to the United Kingdom and Germany, would reduce theirs by States’ proposals.(450 parts per million by volume) by more than 15 per cent. 2030. Jennifer Morgan of CAN in the United States says the organi- veto the protocol if its terms lobbying senators to support zation sees the main problem are not to its liking. it, arguing that the resolution as the timing—not the princi- Heavyweight support? is a route to procuring agree- ple— of a proposal on per ment at Kyoto by getting the But a per capita based solu- capita emissions. CAN will United States to agree to per tion has found enthusiastic oppose anything that reopens capita emissions in exchange supporters in the European the original terms of the for developing country reduc- Parliament, as well as in the climate convention in which tions. Globe network, an organiza- developing countries are tion comprising parliamentar- If it is to go further, however, exempt from reducing their ians with an interest in envi- the per-capita idea needs the emissions. ronmental issues. support of heavyweights such

100 as China and India. China is director of the Centre for Sci- commitment to per capita known to be sympathetic, and ence and Environment in New based targets, rather than said so at a recent conference Delhi, has a simpler explana- absolute goals, is most likely in Beijing. India is believed to tion: India’s climate policy, he to produce a solution at Kyoto hold a similar view, but con- says, is in total disarray. that both rich and poor coun- tinues to maintain an unset- tries will be prepared to But Kilaparti Ramakrishna, tling silence. swallow. director of the science and China’s position reflects a public affairs programme at Ehsan Masood debate between traditional the Woods Hole Research Communists, who strongly Centre in Massachusetts, says oppose the US line partly on that India may yet emerge as ideological grounds, and a a major player. “Responsibility more pragmatic breed of for climate policy has been politician ready to engage given a higher political prior- with the United States if a ity,” he says. long-term benefit for China “It used to fall under the remit can be found. On climate of the Department of Environ- change at least, the latter ment and Forests. But re- group seems to be winning cently it has been taken over the argument. by the more powerful Foreign In a speech last month in Office, which thinks more in Beijing, Song Jian, president terms of north-south [ global ] of China’s Council for Inter- equity. That is a significant national Cooperation and development,” he says. Development, said: “China The United States, meanwhile, bears no responsibility for has neither ruled in or out the reducing greenhouse gas question of per capita green- emissions.” But he added: house cuts. But most US “When we ask the opinion of administra-tion officials re- people from all circles, many, main unconvinced about the in particular scientists, think idea. There is the obvious that the emission control concern that, under this standard should be formu- strategy, the United States lated on a per capita basis.” would have to make the Sir Crispin Tickell, warden of largest reductions. There is Green College, Oxford, a also the view in some quar- member of this council, was ters that it seems to reward present at Song’s speech. He countries — such as China — says this is the clear-est with large populations and indication likely to be given of relatively low energy con- China’s preferred route to sumption. emissions reductions. Finally, the idea of an equity- India, on the other hand, has based distribution of responsi- maintained an uncharacteristic bility to reduce global warm- silence about greenhouse ing strikes some as being gases since the change of ideologically tainted. In the government last year which words of one US official, “To saw the departure of the me this is global Communism. activist environment minister, I thought we’d won the Cold Kamal Nath. This could be War.” because India is unwilling to engage with the United States But the idea still has its strong until Kyoto. Anil Agarwal, supporters. Indeed, many now feel that an international

101 December - Corner House Briefing No.3 - Climate and Equity

“....The aim would be for per years to allow the target to agreed ceiling, the resulting capita emissions globally to be revised up or down in global carbon budget and the converge, allowing developing the light of new knowledge. agreed convergence date countries to increase their per within it. · Second, countries would capita emissions upwards, agree a global “carbon It is clearly easier and while those of developed emissions budget” for each cheaper to avoid future emis- countries would contract to year of the next century in sions in developing countries meet them. This jointly- order to reduce global CO2 where, for example, fossil agreed pattern of carbon use concentrations progressively fuel-fired power stations have would take place under an to within the agreed ceiling. not been built on any scale, agreed carbon ceiling. The rate at which the than it is in fully industrialised “emissions budget” declined countries where it will take a Contraction and Conver- year by year would be a generation to reverse existing gence matter for negotiation. dependence on fossil fuels. However, the South’s ability to Accepting per capita emis- · Third, countries would leapfrog fossil-fuel depend- sions as the cornerstone of agree to allocate the annual ency may depend on their any future framework for CO2 budget among each access to clean, energy-saving controlling emissions may other on a per capita basis technologies currently being open the way for negotiating and with a view to per developed in North as well as a long-term agreement that capita emissions converging South. Given sufficient politi- takes account of the differing by an agreed date. Sharing cal pressure, Northern indus- circumstances and means of the right to use the world’s trial interests may be per- all countries; meets the devel- atmosphere on an equal suaded to “gift” such tech- oping countries’ demands for basis is the fairest and most nologies. In the short-term, fairness; accepts the need for durable way of dividing the however, initially rising alloca- eventual limits by developing CO2 budget. As with all the tions of emissions entitle- countries; and meets the other “targets” in the pro- ments in developing countries prerequisite for an effective posal, the year for conver- could be traded with industr- long-term international agree- gence would be a matter of ialised countries whose alloca- ment to avoid dangerous negotiation. climatic change. tions are contracting from the In effect, the proposal would outset. One proposal, originally put tie parties into a negotiated, Such “emissions trading”, forward by the London-based but flexible, programme for however, would need to be Global Commons Institute reducing emissions which strictly regulated if it is not to (GCI) and subsequently taken would also ensure that, within be exploited by companies up by the Africa Group of a fixed period, no one enjoyed seeking to dump outdated, Nations,18 suggests a three- the right to emit more than polluting technologies on the fold process for building such their fair share of greenhouse South or to use the threat of a framework: gases, as agreed by the doing this via “relocation” as a international community. · First, countries would means of driving down the set an internationally The resulting process of pay and conditions of work- agreed global ceiling on “contraction and convergence” ers. Care must also be taken CO2 concentrations in the would thus see those in the lest emissions trading become atmosphere for the next North cutting emissions, a means of postponing action century. This ceiling would whilst those in many countries to curb emissions as compa- be negotiated internation- of the South would be able to nies buy up the South’s future ally and the agreement increase their emissions for a development options. would include a scientific period determined by the review process every five It is thus critical to place

102 emissions trading firmly within climate change”.19 To keep Group. The US, meanwhile, the framework set by contrac- global CO2 concentrations in has neither ruled in nor ruled tion and convergence. As GCI the atmosphere below that out the notion of per capita puts it, “Contraction only level would require global CO2 emissions. The space for makes sense if one accepts emissions to be reduced negotiation is thus open. the science of climate change. progressively by 60-80 per Indeed, as the prestigious Convergence only makes cent of 1990 emissions. science journal, Nature , sense if one accepts the need remarks: As GCI points out, significant for contraction and the need climatic damage is already “Many now feel that an inter- for equity. Trading emissions being caused at current national commitment to per only have a place if they are atmospheric CO2 concentra- capita based targets, rather set in the discipline of con- tions, which stand at just 30 than absolute goals, is most traction and convergence and per cent above pre-industrial likely to produce a solution at if used as a tool for achieving levels. GCI therefore suggests Kyoto that both rich and poor flexibility within the overall that a future carbon budget countries will be prepared to constraints that contraction resulting in an atmospheric swallow.”21 and convergence defines. CO2 concentration of no more Otherwise they would simply than 450 ppmv (60 per cent make matters worse.” above the pre-industrial level) This page is: http:// Negotiate, Negotiate by the year 2100 should be www.thecornerhouse.org.uk/ agreed as the maximum As GCI is at pains to point briefing/03climate.html upper limit. This could then be out, the concept of linking negotiated downwards as contraction to convergence evidence of climatic damage does not in itself dictate and human causation became future emissions targets — more apparent. but the negotiated application of the concept does. In effect, Under this carbon budget, “contraction and convergence” with a convergence date of, provides a framework through say, the year 2030, the per which targets might be set on capita emissions entitlement an equitable basis and then globally at convergence would applied internationally. be about one tonne of carbon per person per year. To reach GCI’s own view is that the that figure, Britain would need targets would need to be to reduce its emissions by 50 considerably more stringent per cent and the US by 77 per than those put on the table at cent. Meanwhile, China would the December 1997 meeting be permitted to increase its of parties to the Climate emissions by no more than 41 Convention in Kyoto. One per cent and Bangladesh by problem is that although no more than 2354 per cent. scientists now recognise that Thereafter, all would progres- humanity is dangerously close sively reduce their emissions to the cliff’s edge, they do not pro rata to a final per capita know exactly how close. The entitlement of 0.2 tonne of current scientific consensus is carbon per year by the year that anything more than a 2100. doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over pre- Support for the principle of industrial levels — 280 parts setting emission limits on a per million by volume (ppmv) per capita basis has already — which on current trends will been expressed by leading happen by the year 2040, is negotiators from China20 and “likely to cause dangerous India, in addition to the Africa

103 December 12 - Independent Now the test for Kyoto resolution

Seen in the harsh light of Overall, it means a 5.2 per gas emissions associated with dawn, what did more than cent cut in annual emissions these fuels considering its a week of round-the-clock of climate-changing green- huge productivity and wealth. negotiation in Kyoto house gases from the devel- Under the final agreement, achieve? Nicholas Schoon, oped world by 2012, com- Russia has to stabilise its Environment Correspond- pared with a 1990 base-line. emissions. Australia, Iceland, ent, examines the brave The European Union has and Norway are allowed to new world created by the agreed to an 8 per cent cut, increase their global-warming new anti-global warming the US to 7 per cent and pollution by 2012: they all treaty. Japan to 6 per cent. Although pleaded successfully that they EU nations felt strongly that were special cases. Things will never be the same the US and Japan should cut again... perhaps. In Environmentalists are, Kyoto the nations discreetly, rather of the world agreed pleased by the final on a decisive step The most rational way of agreement. Given to begin tackling dealing with the problem seems to how far the major the threat of man- be the “contraction and conver- industrialised nations made climate gence” approach advocated by the were apart at the change. But it will start of the confer- take about six London-based Global Commons ence, the depth of years before you Institute. Under its scenario, every cuts agreed is slightly can judge whether inhabitant of the planet would be more than they were nearly 30 devel- allocated the same quantity of guessing at its start. oped nations - greenhouse gases to emit, divided It was the Americans which agreed to cut who caved in most of their annual output out of a total which kept climate all, but there is a risk of six key global- change within tolerable limits. the Republican- warming gases - dominated Congress are serious about will refuse to ratify the new Kyoto the treaty. Jeremy protocol. emissions with the same flat Leggett, a former campaigner First, they will have to sign rate, the fact that they took with Greenpeace who now and ratify the treaty to make the issue most seriously and promotes solar power, said: it legally binding- and there called for a deeper cut than “I’m quite encouraged. Now are major doubts about any other group of countries we’ll see whether this treaty whether the biggest polluter, has ended up with them starts to transform the energy the US, with its anti-Kyoto being allocated the largest industry.” He said it sent a majority of politicians in reduction. clear signal to big oil compa- Congress, will. nies that their sales of pollut- As for Japan, its negotiators ing fossil fuels would be Secondly, their governments argued remorselessly and capped in the developed will have to make a prompt successfully in Kyoto that the world, and encouraged them start on implementing the nation hosting the treaty to move into renewable policies needed to stop emis- conference was a special energy sources. In the long sions of these gases rising. case. Japan uses fossil fuels run the developing countries They have a few years to with high efficiency because it will have to be brought into change the upward trend into has virtually none of its own - the treaty if it is to be effec- a decline in order to comply they all have to be imported. tive in slowing the rate of with the provisions of the As a result, it produces rela- new United Nations treaty. tively few of the greenhouse

104 climate change caused by This would give every country, pollution. whatever its wealth, a certain The most rational way of quota of pollution. Developed dealing with the problem countries have more than seems to be the “contraction their fair share of this quota, and convergence” approach while many developing na- advocated by the London- tions still have less. The based Global Commons institute says all countries Institute. Under its scenario, should be able to trade their every inhabitant of the planet quotas through a free market. would be allocated the same quantity of greenhouse gases to emit, divided out of a total which kept climate change within tolerable limits.

105 1998

April - Earthwatch EnergyEnergyEnergy-back-back-backed Currency Units A new means to phase out group’s cost-benefit calcula- proposed that under-consum- fossil fuel consumption tions had valued the human ers should have the right to lives expected to be lost in sell their surplus to the en- REMEMBER KYOTO, LAST Asia as a result of climate ergy junkies. This key feature year’s international confer- change at only a fifteenth of of the scheme will generate a ence on limiting global warm- the value they put on North healthy income for some of ing which had rather limited American and European lives the poorest countries in the results? lost from the same cause. world and give them every Well, the United Nations has This invalidating their entire incentive to follow a low- called an equally high-pow- approach, especially in the energy development path. eyes of international organi- ered conference on the same For the past two years, Au- sations. subject for Buenos Aires brey has been attending (November 2nd - 13th) and, meeting after meeting ex- this time, the prospects are CONTRACTION & CON- plaining the plan, with the more promising. There’s an VERGENCE result that it was adopted by excellent chance that the a ten-to-one majority by the world will move-beyond mere Now he’s come up with ‘Con- traction and Convergence’, a European Parliament in Sep- voluntary undertakings and tember. Developing countries that a workable, enforceable plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Under the have welcomed it too and the plan for cutting greenhouse 113 countries in the Non- gas emissions will emerge. plan, an overall limit on the world’s total greenhouse gas Aligned Movement made it If it does, one man can claim emissions is fixed by interna- their policy at a recent meet- a lot of the credit. He’s Au- tional agreement for every ing in South Africa. brey Meyer, who once played year in the next century so The only opposition to the the viola professionally in the that the eventual level of plan is coming from people BBC’s Ulster orchestra and these gases in the atmos- who are ideologically opposed composed two successful phere does not exceed twice to any form of emissions ballet scores. In 1990, Aubrey their pre-industrial level. You trading. Anyway, C&C, which decided that tackling climate won’t be surprised to hear is, when you think about it, change was more urgent than that in order to meet this the only conceivable basis for making music and, with a few ultimate target, the use of a united world response to friends, set up the Global fossil energy has to steadily the climate problem, has Commons Institute which he contract. been taken on board by the runs from his cramped flat in Once these annual limits have system and is effectively out North London. His influence of Aubrey’s hands. on the course of the interna- been set, the right to burn tional debate on the issue has whatever amount of fuel as been immense. fixed for any year is shared NEW GLOBAL CURRENCY out among the nations of the So now he’s moved on to For example, he single- world on the basis of their another problem: ‘What handedly derailed an attempt current population. In the currency are over-consuming by an international group of early stages at least, some nations going to use to buy economists to work out how nations will find themselves extra energy consumption much warming it was eco- consuming less than their permits from the poorer nomically sound to stop. He allocation while others will be ones?’ This question would did this by showing that the consuming more, so it is not occur to most people but

106 if the wealthy nations can use ebcus. reserves, thus cutting the their own currencies to pay, amount of money in circula- This fixes the value of the they will get the right to use tion, which would also have ebcu in relation to a certain part of their additional energy the effect of cutting energy amount of greenhouse emis- for free. consumption back. So the sion and through that to a system is nicely self-balanc- Why’s this? Well, the coun- certain amount of energy. The ing. National economies could tries he’s concerned about ebcu issue would be a once- only grow by becoming more operate reserve currencies off to get the system started. fossil-energy efficient, which such as the dollar, sterling If a government actually used is just what we want. and the D-mark which other ebcus to buy additional SERs nations keep in their gold and from the IMF, the number of I explained in my last foreign currency reserves to ebcus in circulation interna- Earthwatch article that the give credibility to their own tionally would not be in- current crisis in the World currencies. Dollars amount to creased to make up for the economy is due to excess 57 of these reserves - so loss -the ebcus paid over to production in relation to many of the dollars the US the IMF would simply be people’s ability to buy. How- pays out for its imports never cancelled and the world ever, it is being made much return to the US in payment would have to manage with worse because the world’s for American goods but stay less of them in circulation. currencies are not backed by in central banks around the anything apart from confi- In other words, the IMF’s world. This is one of the dence, a quality which is in obligation to supply additional reasons why the US has been short supply these days. SERs is strictly limited by the able to run a balance of That’s why the dollar and the amount of ebcus it puts into payments deficit year after yen are moving so erratically circulation - there is no open- year, taking more from the up and down. Aubrey’s en- ended commitment. rest of the world than it gives ergy-backed currency would back Governments receiving SERs be much more stable than would be free to buy and sell any of the present reserve As Aubrey doesn’t want them internationally, and the currencies. It would represent industrialised countries to be price set by these sales would something real. Will his new able to continue to use exces- establish the exchange rate of idea get anywhere? Who sive amounts of fossil energy their national currencies in knows? But if you were because they run reserve terms of ebcus, and thus in looking for someone to per- currencies, he worked with a terms of energy and each suade the world community friend to devise an interna- other. Countries would keep about anything, Aubrey’s your tional currency which would ebcus in their foreign ex- man. stop them. Here’s how the change reserves and relate system they devised would Richard Douthwaite is an the amount of national cur- work: Each month, the IMF economist and writer rency in circulation to the (International Monetary Fund) based in Mayo. You’ll find value of the ebcus and any would assign Special Emission out more about his ideas other external currency they Rights (SERs, the right to in his books The Growth held. If a country allowed too emit a specified amount of Illusion and Short Circuit. much of its own currency to green-house gases and hence get into circulation so that its to burn fossil fuel) to national economy expanded faster governments according to the than it became more energy- Contraction and Convergence efficient, its demand for fossil agreement. It would also energy would rise. This would issue energy-backed currency either alter the country’s units (ebcus) to the govern- exchange rate in relation to ments on the same basis as the ebcu, making energy the SERs, and hold itself more expensive and thus ready to supply additional discouraging its use, or run SERs to whoever presented it down its foreign exchange with a specific amount of

107 May - Independent Maverick musician could put a stop to global warming

Geoffrey Lean on how Au- obstreperousness and sheer assassinated for his work to brey Meyer is winning a bloody-mindedness - all protect the rainforest, and lonely battle orchestrated from a tiny began researching the issue. backroom in a cramped SENIOR politicians and nego- The musical never got written, ground-floor flat. No 43 tiators from around the world as Meyer went green. He Windsor Road, Willesden, is a are meeting in the House of joined the Green Party, but undistinguished house in a Commons this week to pro- was quickly disillusioned. So Victorian terrace. There is mote a “world-saving” idea - he decided to set up his own little to mark it out from its dreamed up by a middle-aged organisation, focusing on neighbours except a bright musician in the prosaic north global warming. He sold his widowbox of geraniums, an London suburb of Willesden. viola “like amputating a limb” “Adopt a Whale” sticker on a to buy a computer, and -with They believe he may have pane, and - when I turned up typical cheek - grandly called found how to cut the Gordian last week- the -strains of Mr his shoestring project the knot of international efforts to Meyer playing the challenging Global Commons Institute. combat global warming; and Sibelius violin concerto. they aim to catch the atten- He quickly developed a simple Inside are three small rooms, tion of the leaders of the proposal: that everyone on each with a bed built over world’s eight most powerful earth should have the right to head - with no space to sit up nations at this week’s Bir- emit the same amount of in it -just beneath the ceiling, mingham summit. carbon dioxide. Taking the for Mr Meyer, his wife and best estimate of scientists - The meeting - to be chaired eight-year-old daughter. He that emissions will have to be by former environment secre- himself sleeps above a poky reduced by 60% per cent by tary John Gummer, and ad- study filled with files, laptops, the end of the next century - dressed by the present Envi- two fax machines, a high- he worked out (with the help ronment minister, Michael quality colour printer -and not of a mathematician friend. Meacher, is being put on by enough space to swing a Tony Cooper) what each GLOBE International, an catalytic converter. nation would be allowed on association of parliamentar- Born and brought up in South this basis, and produced ians from 100 countries. It Africa, he came to London in graphics to illustrate it. marks an extraordinary com- 1968 on a scholarship to the ing in from the cold for 51- Industrialised countries (that Royal College of Music, spe- year-old Aubrey Meyer, who have emitted four-fifths of the cialising in the viola. He has spent years battling pollution so far) would be played for the London Philhar- industry, governments and allocated much less in future. monic, was principal violinist environmental pressure Developing countries would for the Gulbenkian Orchestra groups. Now his plan - for be allowed more than at in Lisbon, and wrote the score fairly sharing rights to emit present but would have to for the Royal Ballet’s Choros, carbon dioxide, the main moderate their growth. But which won an Evening Stand- cause of global warming-has they could sell their emission ard award. become the policy of India, rights to the rich, earning China and the whole African He was looking for a subject money to develop less pollut- continent. The Clinton admin- for a musical when he first ing technologies and making it istration invited him to Wash- became interested in the easier for the bigger polluters ington to brief its senior environment. He read a to adapt. officials. newspaper interview with The idea ran into as much Chico Mendez, the Brazilian The story is a remarkable opposition from environments rubber-tappers leader later triumph of stubbornness, groups as from governments

108 and industry, and he endured done. The United States is Persuading the biggest pollut- “lonely dog years”, financing insisting it will not ratify the ers such as the US will be his operation with the occa- agreement unless developing difficult. Michael Grubb, sional small grant from well- countries also agree to limit director of energy and envi- off sympathisers. He has little emissions; Mr Meyer says he ronment at the Royal Institute time for the established has worked out how this for International Affairs, says: groups, but admits that his could be done, in probably, “No one has come up with a personality didn’t help create the only way the Third World more logical way of solving good relations: “Everything would accept. the problem fairly, but in the they say about me is true. I’m real world it is likely to be a Meanwhile the US, Canada bloody rude, disruptive and nightmare to get agreement and Japan are exploiting a confrontational.” Obsessive? on it.” loop-hole in the Kyoto agree- “Maturely so, I hope.” ment by negotiating to buy But Mr Gummer says that Mr But eventually the persistence up vast amounts of spare Meyer’s concept is “crucial”. paid off, and events have now Russian capacity to pollute, He adds: “I don’t see how we put him centre-stage. Last infuriating both Europe and can get a global answer to December’s Kyoto agreement the Third World and endan- climate change unless there is sanctioned trading the rights gering the whole treaty. This a degree of global justice.” to emit carbon dioxide. week’s meeting will present Mr Meyer’s plans to the He says, with some justice, summit as a convincing that his is the only existing alternative. proposal on how this could be

June - PPJune arliamentary Monitor An Opportunity to Correct the World’sorld’sorld’s Climate Damage Labour MP, Alan Simpson, ures are not taken soon, pollution cuts in the Protocol argues that the time has humanity will slide into a agreed at Kyoto and now come to correct the dam- period of intensified climatic awaiting ratification are the age that has been done to disequilibrium. Yet interna- result of chaotic horse-trading the global environment tional action to curb emissions amongst a few countries and has been virtually non-exist- are ridden with caveats; even JOHN PRESCOTT leaves ent. if they are delivered, they London for China in July to try would have negligible effects and breathe fresh life back At the 1992 Earth Summit, on the dangerously-rising into the negotiations to broker held in Rio de Janeiro, most levels of atmospheric green- an international deal on countries agreed to return house gas concentrations. curbing greenhouse gas their emissions of greenhouse emissions. He would do well gases to 1990 levels by the Prescott knows this. He knows to place equity at the centre year 2000. too that the chances of effec- of discussions. Unless equity tive international action de- Few are doing so. Indeed, is firmly on the negotiating pend critically on the willing- emissions in the US have table, the prospects of any ness of all governments to risen. deal at all on climate change settle their differences and are absolutely zero. The international conference agree a collaborative on climate change in Kyoto framework for addressing Few scientists now doubt that last December was supposed climate change. the earth’s climate is changing to break this deadlock. Little, and that, if corrective meas- For China and other Southern however, was achieved. The

109 countries, equity has always countries to increase their per • First, countries would set an been the starting point for capita emissions upwards, internationally-agreed global any deal. Their position is while those of developed ceiling on C02 concentrations clear: no individual should be countries would contract to in the atmosphere for the next denied the possibility of meet them. This jointly- century; surviving climatic change agreed pattern of carbon use • Second, countries would because of their poverty, race, would take place under an agree a global “carbon emis- class, gender, religion or agreed ceiling. sions contraction budget” for geographical location. Like- Accepting per capita emis- each year of the next century wise, any “solution” that sions as the cornerstone of in order to stabilise global C02 denies people in the South any future framework for concentrations within the the resources and technolo- controlling emissions may yet agreed ceiling. The ceiling and gies that they may seek to open the way for negotiating budget are held under review; build (or rebuild) sustainable a long-term agreement that livelihoods in a rapidly warm- • Third, countries would agree takes account of the differing ing world - whilst permitting to allocate the C02 budget circumstances and means of the use of those resources amongst each other as the and technologies in result of international the North - would per capita emissions be profoundly paths converging by hypocritical. an agreed date, and; If equity is to form • Fourth to reduce the basis for allo- global emissions at cating future emis- the least cost, the sions of green- allocated emission house gases, then entitlements would be Northern countries tradable amongst the should shoulder the parties to the above prime responsibility arrangements. for making cuts in The resulting process greenhouse gas of “contraction, emissions. The convergence, alloca- developing coun- tion and trade” would tries are not the ones that all countries. It meets the thus see those in the North have created the problem of developing countries’ de- cutting emissions in situ or global warming - and expect- mands for fairness yet fore- paying a social-ecological ing them to forego develop- sees the need for eventual market premium for their ment options in order to emissions reductions by them over-consumption to those in correct a problem caused as well. It suggests the frame- the South. mainly by others is patently work for an effective long- unfair. term international agreement Meanwhile, Southern coun- to avoid dangerous climatic tries would be able either to Equity presupposes, however, change. sell or to use their emissions that everyone takes responsi- entitlements consistent with bility for keeping their future One such proposal, originally the negotiated programme of emissions within social and put forward by the London- contraction and convergence. ecological limits. Many South- based Global Commons Insti- ern countries argue for emis- tute (GCI) and subsequently Contraction and convergence sion targets to be set on a per taken up by the Africa Group is, in effect, a means of allo- capita basis, rather than of Nations and GLOBE Inter- cating property rights to the merely a percentage increase national, under the leadership commons that constitutes the or reduction over 1990 levels. of Tom Spencer MEP, suggests climate system globally. The aim would be for per a four-fold process for build- However, in the absence of capita emissions globally to ing such a framework: such a framework, these converge, allowing developing property rights are being

110 established on an ad hoc of the UN Climate Convention. contraction is the big idea basis by the biggest polluters which holds the picture to- Small wonder that countries who are currently appropriat- gether. Without it, nothing is like China and India are ing rights to global climate on sustainable. There is a grow- insisting that the issue of the basis of their past and ing awareness that sustain- property rights be sorted out present emissions. Trading ability can only be achieved if before the US or other indus- emissions entitlements under it is founded on the primacy trialised countries push ahead these circumstances will not of global equity in preference with any deals involving only mean that the climate is to free markets and new emission trading. These rights sold off over the heads of technology. If John Prescott can be negotiated but they affected local communities can broker agreement on this must not be pirated. but it will also compound the basis, it will be the most problem of negotiating an The Labour Party has set its ethical policy the world has international settlement stall out to address the “big seen. consistent with the objective picture”. At a global level,

June 19 - Guardian Emissions that count “.....But hovering in the contract each year and then many developing countries, wings is a proposal, known allocating permits to emit including China and India to be acceptable to almost them to all countries on the and the Africa group, have everyone in the developing basis of their populations. voiced support. Insurers world and increasingly by The permits would be and MPs from various the developed countries. It tradeable, so that those countries, even US sena- would seem to resolve countries which could not tors, have publicly shown almost all US objections to manage within their alloca- enthusiasm. Even Tony Blair the Kyoto agreement, and tions could buy extra ones has said that the C&C has the advantage of being from those with a surplus. approach “merits full con- demonstrably fair, prag- It would strengthen the sideration....” matic and politically neutral. global economy and ad- dress many of the concerns Full article at: “Contraction and Conver- of the WTO, the IMF and www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/ gence” (C&C), dreamed up the World Bank by channel- globalwarming/story/ by the small Global Com- ling money to poor coun- 0,7369,509220,00.html mons Institute in London, is tries not as aid but as a based on two principles: right. Its simplicity and its that global emissions of potential is appealing and it greenhouse warming gases has powerful supporters, must be progressively including Svend Auken, the reduced and that global Danish environment minis- governance must be based ter, his counterpart Jan on justice and fairness. Pronk in Holland, Michael Rather than look at emis- Meacher in Britain, Jacques sions on a country by Chirac and Klaus Topfer of country basis, C&C pro- the UN environment depart- poses reducing emissions ment. The British royal on a per capita basis. commission on environmen- It means agreeing interna- tal pollution has advised the tionally how rapidly green- government to press for an house gas emissions should approach like this, and

111 August 1998 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Climate, Justice, Development – A Policy Briefing to the Non Aligned Movement on Climate Change; the case for Global Equity” – Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

November - Environment The PPThe olitics of Buenos Aires Success at COP 4 will depend tural revolutions of previous confusion and promote inac- on the unprecedented interac- centuries. It is a question not tion. Timing becomes the tion of many political dimen- simply of what countries will dilemma: Action needs to be sions and cannot be predicted do but how they organize taken immediately to mitigate using traditional analysis. what must be done. adverse consequences in the next century. Parliamentary A particular mindset and A shift of this magnitude has democracies, however, favor considerable determination abundant complexities. Na- four-year time frames. will be necessary to influence, tional efforts to redress past or at least substantially track, follies are expressed in techni- The scope of climate disrup- the politics of the Fourth cally complex negotiations, tion is genuinely global and Conference of the Parties to largely conducted using the requires a global response, the UN Convention on Climate ground rules of traditional but current global institutions Change (COP 4) in Buenos diplomacy. The process is are inefficient, partial, untried, Aires in early November. On both geographically dispersed and in some cases as yet one level, the political issues and bureaucratically arcane. uninvented. The slow and debated in Argentina will be The number of people party painful process of institutional very simple: Nations will to the negotiations is inevita- reform will most likely be engage in re-engineering their bly small and their disagree- hindered by current economic economies for the 21st cen- ments are not easily explica- distress unless the crisis tury in line with the proven ble to the general public. proves so catastrophic that it need to substantially reduce Inevitably but regrettably, this provokes a fundamental the burning of fossil fuels. semipublic process is being reformation of ideas. Viewed at length, however, heavily lobbied by interests Success at COP 4 will depend this is a paradigm shift on par vested in the fossil fuel indus- on the unprecedented interac- with the industrial or agricul- try who seem to cultivate

112 tion of many political dimen- Organisation for a Balanced habits that will destroy us, as sions and cannot be predicted Environment (GLOBE), based well as to those survival.. using traditional political in Brussels, recognizes the instincts that can save us. analysis. Major players in this scale of the political task that As the technical battles rage system cannot opt for any- faces participating nations. over sinks and senates, clean thing less than success. However, GLOBE believes that development mechanisms and Failure is difficult to explain there are ways to avoid being dirty politics, we all must domestically, especially con- overcome by a millennial struggle to keep our heads sidering that renowned scien- pessimism. The group has above the wealth of demands. tists continue to present the sought to find a common Our constant concern must be stark national consequences language and an acceptable to keep our bearings and ask of international failure. time frame in which to con- ourselves whether any par- duct these political debates. As the process deepens, it ticular decision takes us closer GLOBE has adopted and inevitably involves a greater to the rendezvous with reality. promoted the “contraction number of countries and a Never before has humanity and convergence analysis” wider range of political elites. been so starkly faced with the developed by the Global The work initiated by scien- choice of “hanging together, Commons Institute, which tists and civil servants has lest we hang separately.” aims to determine the been taken up by diplomats amount by which global Tom Spencer and environment ministers. It carbon emissions must be GLOBE International now also requires parliamen- reduced and how to distribute Brussels and Chairman, tarians to ratify decisions the burden equitably. The European Parliament while finance ministers con- analysis, as shown in the Foreign Affairs Committee sider the fiscal and monetary figure on the next page, is an NOTE: The figure shows consequences. In each politi- elegant representation of the information on four axes: cal system the climate change challenge that faces humanity The lower horizontal axis debate highlights the weak and the solution that lies is a time series in years points of a national culture. within our grasp. It is, how- from 1860 to 2100: the The U.S. administration finds ever, merely a model to frame upper horizontal axis itself blocked by a lobby- diplomatic and political activ- shows concentrations of driven Congress. The Euro- ity. It is not an answer, a the greenhouse gas car- pean Commission must nego- mandate, or a magic totem. It bon dioxide rising from tiate under the constraint of illustrates the shared nature 280 parts per million by the national sensitivities of 15 of humanity’s predicament volume (ppmv) to 450 governments. In Japan, the and points towards a conclu- ppmv over the same time issue is fought out by rival sion that maximizes both period; the left-hand bureaucracies and reflected in efficiency and equity. It vertical axis shows tons of the fractured party politics of provokes ideas to enable carbon measured as the Diet. In China, only re- political elites to escape from ‘gigatons’ (billions of cently have the ecological the four-year time trap. It has metric tons) from carbon costs of the country’s inten- visual impact, and it power- dioxide emissions from sive industrialization been fully communicates the nature fossil fuel burning from all seriously acknowledged. of the choices to the world’s countries globally. The In India, a new government electorates. It seeks to use countries are organized seeks to be the regional instruments such as markets into three groups: the superpower while most of her to correct the malfunctions countries of the Organisa- nearly one billion people that we unknowingly stum- tion for Economic Coop- continue a rural struggle for bled into in the adolescence eration and Development survival in an ever more of our industrial age, all (OECD) at the bottom fragile environment. within an achievable political with the countries of the Former Soviet Union As a small group of environ- time scale. immediately above the mentally committed parlia- It has neither winners nor OECD Together these two mentarians. Global Legislators losers. It points to those groups comprise the

113 Industrial Country group The future (from 2000 to tration of carbon dioxide of or the so-called Annex I 2100) is an example of “Con- 450 ppmv as a suggested of the FCCC. All the re- traction and Convergence.” value for meeting the objec- maining countries of the This is a projection and can tive of the FCCC. The pur- world are above the An- be revised during the budget pose of this aspect of the nex I group. In each period. It is just one example figure is to demonstrate that group the countries are among an array of possibili- stabilization of atmospheric ordered upwards from ties of how the model might greenhouse gas concentra- largest to smallest emitter ultimately be used to get tions requires by definition a based on 1990 carbon international agreement contraction budget. Albeit with dioxide output values; the different integrals and time right-hand vertical axis The rates of “Contraction and frames this is true no matter shows temperature as Convergence” are assumed which outcome greenhouse points of a degree Celsius. to be 100 percent flexible gas concentration value is within the constraints of the The two overall time periods chosen. are the past and “Convergence” in the future. The the model is the past is reported specific and pro- from observed gressive method of data. The future organizing the is not a prediction future international - it is a projection shares of the of Global Com- agreed contraction mons Institute’s budget in a manner (GCIs) “Contrac- that is globally tion and Conver- inclusive, globally gence” model. equitable, and also Note that con- globally tradable. centrations rose Convergence starts from 280 ppmv to from whatever the 360 ppmv by initial given distribu- 2000, a rise of 30 tion is and percent above pre-industrial algorithms. Consequently the progresses incrementally to a (observed data continues until allocations that result from an chosen date in the next 1997); global mean tempera- agreement based on “Con- century (in this example it is ture rose by 0.6 of a degree traction and Convergence” 2030) after which interna- Celsius (observed data con- need to be internationally tional shares of the global tinues until 1997): data for tradable with 100 percent contraction budget stay equal carbon dioxide emissions flexibility as well. on a per capita basis globally. The model also enables the from fossil fuel burning is that “Contraction” is shown here reported by the Carbon population numbers (United so that greenhouse gas Nations medium fertility Dioxide Analysis and Informa- emissions are steadily re- tion Center (reported data for predictions to 2050) to be duced globally by 2100 to an frozen in the accounts at any emissions continue until 1996 annual output value of 40 followed by estimates re- date (in this example it is percent of 1990 output val- 2030). ported by the developed ues. The integral (accumu- countries for themselves until lated total) of this particular The whole exercise taken 2000). The developing coun- contraction budget (2000 to together should be regarded tries between 1997 and 2000 2100) is 640 gigatons carbon. as “Contraction, Conver- were assumed to continue Taking the average of the gence, Allocation and Trade.” growing at the growth rate IPCC climate models, this SOURCE: averaged in the first part of gives a stabilization value by the decade. Global Commons Insti- 2100 for atmospheric concen- tute.

114 November 5 - Buenos Aires Global Equity is at the Heart of the SolutionSolutionSolution

By Aubrey Meyer, Director because of these impacts. “international tradability of of GCI, based in London. While there may historically these commitments,” so they be no justice between the are achieved “efficiently” or at Correcting global inequity divergent rich and poor, lowest cost. These are ra- is at the heart of the global climate changes now tional arguments. Effective- solution to global climate threaten all of us with chaos. ness and efficiency are indeed change. Without this, The global environmental two of the three pre-condi- there is no role for devel- justice of climate change will tions of success. However the oping countries. be either correcting inequity third is global equity, the Without this and without and preventing climate founding principle of the all of us, there is no solu- change, or living in conditions Climate Convention. Without tion to climate change. that become unbearable for this point, the inevitable The impact of expanding all. How do we achieve the moral basis of any global human greenhouse gas (ghg) former path? rationale - we face continuing political division and deepen- emissions on the climate The objective of the United ing ecological adversity. system is causing global Nations Framework Conven- Global equity here simply temperature to rise, putting tion on Climate Change means how is the global ghg everyone at risk. The patterns (UNFCCC) is to stabilise rising contraction budget shared of global consumption behind concentration of greenhouse internationally? Taken to- this impact are deeply diver- gas (ghg) in the atmosphere. gether, how do we effectively gent. Globally and historically, By definition this requires a calculate and equitably share it is a minority of people that global contraction of ghg this budget? And then how has caused these impacts. emissions from human also do we efficiently manage Emissions of ghgs have been sources to 60 to 80% less these shares, so that the accumulating in the atmos- than at present. The sooner whole operation succeeds at phere since the beginning of this is achieved, the lower the least damage cost and abate- industrialization. 80% of this ultimate concentration -and ment cost globally? The accumulated impact has come therefore temperature and answer is “Contraction, Con- from the less than 20 of damage - level will be. The vergence Allocation and global population living in the Kyoto Protocol created in Trade”. industrial north. Since the December 1997 was a first money supply and ghg emis- flawed and inadequate at- COP agrees to a safe global sions are closely correlated, tempt to introduce legally atmospheric ghg concentra- those making the money have binding commitments to tion target. This, by definition been making the mess. At begin this contraction. Indus- creates a long-term global present, one third of the trial countries are supposed ghg emissions contraction global population has 94% of to take this lead. But the budget. Inside it shares are the global purchasing power, wrangling continues as the US legitimate and outside it they the other two thirds the has refused to ratify the are “hot-air.” When necessary remaining 6. Most, but not all Protocol saying that unless all it can be revised, but it is an of that upper third live in the countries are involved the unavoidably necessary step. industrialised countries ben- effort will be futile because it COP also agrees that the efiting from the institutions of is one-sided. They say to be international shares of this their accumulated wealth. A effective we must have budget are negotiated using fatalistic maxim says the rich “globality” or “meaningful the principle of convergence get richer while the poor get participation by developing to equal per capita shares poorer. This now misses the countries.” They also specify globally by an agreed date, point. All of us - rich and poor “maximum flexibility” or the with pro rata reduction there- - have a dwindling future

115 after. Again revision over time commitments can only com- may be required. The combi- mence after issues relating to nation of these operations the principles, modalities, etc. result in an internationally of such trading, including the complete and equitable set of initial allocations of emissions ghg allocations that are entitlements on an equitable legally binding limitations of basis to all countries, has reductions and also fully been agreed upon by the internationally tradable Parties to the Framework shares. The international Convention on Climate distribution of shares is most Change.” sensitive to the rates of “Contraction, Convergence “Contraction and Conver- Allocation and Trade” is gence” as the graphic exam- already a widely known way ples show. The faster the of negotiating this. The Euro- convergence the greater the pean Parliament recently share to the low per capita voted for this approach with a consumers. Noting the “his- majority of ninety percent in toric responsibility of the favour. The Africa Group of Industrial Countries” and Nations had already adopted using the “maximum flexibil- this position before COP3. ity” -and acting positively in Article 17 of the Kyoto Proto- unison as a majority -the col (KP) is directly a result of developing countries can the Chinese and Indian del- negotiate an ‘accelerated egations rightly demanding convergence’ and acquire the equitable allocations at the majority shares in a future end of COPS, and the NAM carbon budget that is also statement now consolidates globally safe. They can then that. also sell their surplus shares to the industrial countries in Before during and since what will be a very lucrative Kyoto, GLOBE International market to determine their has campaigned for this with future sustainable develop- a growing number of parlia- ment. This is equity and mentarians and with growing survival in a nutshell. Clearly success in over one hundred the opportunity to do this is countries, including the US. better than ever. The Heads The NAM grouping adopting of State at the September this rationale can now begin Summit of the 113 countries the end of global apartheid in of the Non-Aligned Movement what becomes everyone’s (NAM) in Durban, South rational campaign for equity Africa signalled for the first and survival. time as a majority bloc of countries their positive en- gagement with regard to globality, efficiency and eq- uity. The final NAM resolutions state terms for an equitable global partnership to solve climate change. “Emission trading for implementation of (reduction or limitation)

116 117 November 12 - Buenos Aires Herald WWWill Mandela end ‘global apartheid’?

By Genevieve Cooper Africa where he studied apartheid” — the disparity music. He then left South between developed and Among the international Africa to continue his music developing countries. government figures and studies in London and over advocates of every stripe Delegates at the conference the years performed as an present at the UN climate are wrangling to determine orchestra violinist in England, change conference here, how developed and develop- Ireland and Portugal. Aubrey Meyer stands out. ing countries will share the In the early 80s Meyer wrote burden of stabilizing rising A passionate and intense an orchestral score for the greenhouse gas emissions advocate of a unique idea to Royal Ballet in London which believed to be responsible for head off an environmental was successful in England and global warming. Under the disaster and create global abroad. 1997 Kyoto Protocol, devel- equity, Meyer has attracted oped countries adopted what, more attention than ministers if ratified, will become legally- and environmentalists. The binding targets to reduce conference’s official newslet- emissions. Developing coun- ter described him serenading tries have not yet committed cleaning staff and security to emissions reductions and guards with the violin past there are differences among midnight on Friday. A column- developing countries over ist in the newsletter of an whether and how they will environmental group depicted participate. him as “a tall, pony-tailed type,” “on the brink of a In Meyer’s view, the Kyoto psychotic episode.” Protocol “creates a very inequitable and unsustainable Meyer, 51, is the director of In 1988 while he was thinking precedent.” Developing coun- the London-based Global about writing a musical, tries’ participation is essential, Commons Institute (GCI). GCI Meyer came across the story he says, but adds, “how the is an organization dedicated of murdered Brazilian ecolo- problem is going to be shared to global environmental issues gist Chico Mendez. At first has got to be equitable or with a small budget derived thinking Mendez would be a there’s not going to be a from philanthropist donations. good subject for a musical, he solution.” Meyer’s plan is to He also is an independent found himself drawn to a cap global emissions world- policy consultant for Globe budding green movement. wide. Of that amount, each International, an organization Having avoided activism country — industrialized and of some 500 legislators from against apartheid in his native developing - would have a around the world who cooper- country, he decided it was permit to emit a certain ate on global environmental time to get involved in the share. In time, a country’s issues. environment issue, he said. permits to emit C02 would Meyer’s personality and GCI was born in 1989. become proportional to its background, including the population, meaning that the Since then, GCI has devised way he got involved in envi- industrialized nations which an organizing principle with ronmental issues, are unu- now have approximately 20 which to approach the climate sual. What led to his founding percent of the population but change problem, and Meyer GCI was his wish to write a produce 80 percent of the came to the conference to write a musical, he said in an greenhouse emissions would persuade others that his plan interview with the Herald. have to reduce their emis- would both control global sions to match their Born in the United Kingdom, warming and also end what populations or buy permits Meyer was raised in South Meyer refers to as “global

118 from developing countries. promoting Contraction and Convergence with seemingly “If they (the US) can’t deliver everyone he meets, distribut- cuts at that rate, they don’t ing colourful graphs and have to. They can buy back devoting hours to explaining from the credit available in the complicated plan. He also other people’s surplus,” Meyer has been trying to get explained. Mandela and US Vice-Presi- The tradability of emissions dent Al Gore to come to the rights is controversial. Meyer conference and shake hands. says when emission rights are A handshake between assigned and traded they Mandela and Gore could push become property rights. the Convention toward full Environmentalists say it is a participation and an equitable right to pollute and therefore approach to mitigating climate not a property right. He and change, Meyer believes. environmentalists also disa- Although Mandela and Gore gree on the timing of phasing have so far not heeded his out fossil fuels. Some environ- plea, Meyer is a very persua- mentalists want fossil fuels sive man and has shaken up eliminated immediately. NGOs with the rapid spread of Meyer’s plan allows time to his idea and his certainty that phase them out. his idea is the way the world The US has not been enthusi- should go - so much so that a astic about “Contraction and columnist in the newsletter of Convergence, Allocation and an environmental group Trade,” as Meyer’s idea is coalition called him a “danger- known. However, the scheme ous madman” who, “seems to grew partially out of US believe he is the only person demands for emissions trad- who knows THE Truth about ing and “meaningful participa- the climate.” tion” of developing countries Meyer thought the critique in emissions reductions. was amusing and gave the Meyer has been lobbying with newsletter to the Herald. more success in other regions. Globe International will hold a China, India, the Africa Group forum to discuss Contraction of Nations, the European and Conversion today at Parliament and the Non- noon. Aligned Movement have each made statements or resolu- tions in support of per-capita emission rights distribution, he said. South African President Nel- son Mandela is the current president of NAM and is aware of the Contraction and Con- vergence argument. Mandela is in a position, according to Meyer, “to open the political space necessary to end global apartheid.” At the conference, Meyer is

119 1999 March - Ecologist Contraction & Convergence BY JOHN BROAD - countries emissions are up to of reduction which are much 30 times less than those of lower than that which clima- The adoption of a global industrialised states; and that tologists have suggested is programme of ‘Contraction their priority is development, necessary. Nothing is said and Convergence’ offers the for which they want to use about the cuts which must be potential to break the stale- fossil fuels as the North has achieved globally, or about a mate in the international done; and that the North target date for achieving them. negotiations on climate should use its accumulated Even if the industrialised change and to set in countries all ratified place afar more and implemented the effective and inclusive The fundamental advantage of treaty, global emis- political mechanism to sions are likely to curb the consumption this approach is that its per capita basis grow. Who is to say of fossil fuels in all provides an organising principle for the whether this would countries. negotiations which all the parties recog- nise as fair and equitable. result from industrial- The climate change ised countries not negotiations being Essentially, humanity is facing a global cutting their emissions held under the aus- security crisis and needs to drastically sufficiently or from the pices of the United ration what is currently a vital resource, developing countries Nations are stuck in the absorptive capacity of the atmos- letting their emissions an apparently intrac- phere. As Europeans discovered in two rise too much? table impasse. The World Wars, a rationing system works If the current logjam US Congress refuses best when it is perceived to be fair. is to be unblocked the to ‘ allow ratification diplomatic process of the Kyoto protocol As the Global Commons Institute puts must find a means of until major developing it, this is equity for survival. answering this ques- countries commit tion. The only one so themselves to curbing far proposed is called their own greenhouse “Contraction and Conver- gas emissions. Congress wealth to solve the problem. gence”. This is a programme argues that if energy demand Partly as a result of this im- devised by the Global Com- continues to rise on current passe, the Kyoto Protocol, mons Institute and advocated trends, developing countries which is the culmination of by GLOBE International (the will be responsible for more eight years of negotiations, Global Legislators Organisation than half of global emissions and which in some respects is for a Balanced Environment). by 2020. Hence they have the a historic achievement, is An increasing number of potential to undermine any totally inadequate by compari- governments in Europe and cuts, however dramatic, un- son with the kind of compre- the south are signalling that dertaken by the industrialised hensive long-term global they too see it as the basis of countries. agreement that is necessary if a long term solution. Developing countries, mean- humankind is to solve the How would ‘“Contraction and while, argue that historically, problem of climate change. Convergence” work? “Contrac- emissions from industrialised Target reductions in green- tion” refers to the need to countries are the main cause house gas emissions are set reduce global emissions of of global warming; that, on a only for the industrialised greenhouse gases to a level per capita basis, developing countries, and at implied rates that would result in establish-

120 ing what science regards as a tem works best when it is able technologies. With appro- probably tolerable atmospheric perceived to be fair. As the priate monitoring, verification concentration. Effectively this Global Commons Institute puts and enforcement, this trading would create a global “budget” it, this is equity for survival. mechanism, administered by a of greenhouse gas emissions. democratically accountable Implementation of this mecha- This budget necessarily de- international body, could help nism could help overcome the clines over lime until a stable achieve overall contraction current international stalemate point is reached (and as the more rapidly and cheaply, and by addressing a number of the science improves, our percep- certainly it should not suffer key concerns of the major tion of what that point is may from the “leakage” expected players. Acceptance by North- change, so any treaty must to result from the sub-global ern governments that the contain provisions for chang- mechanisms set up under the global emissions budget ing the global budgets). Kyoto protocol. But the result should converge to equity might be much more positive. “Convergence” allocates would be a major step and The world might discover, for shares in that budget to the would encourage Southern the first time, that it is possible emitting nations on the basis governments to accept a cap to cooperate at a global level of equity. This has three on their own emissions. This in and work towards a common components. First, the budget turn would fulfil the demands goal; it might prove to be is global; every country has of the US for an international much easier than expected to shares in the atmosphere and process which committed all de-link the historic connection any treaty that allocates its countries to reduce or limit between the burning of fossil absorptive capacity only to a their greenhouse gas emis- fuels and the creation of selection of countries effec- sions, as stipulated by the human wealth. tively deprives the others. Byrd-Hagel Resolution passed Second, the current situation unanimously by the US Sen- “Contraction and Conver- whereby allocations are gener- ate. gence” thus has the poten- ally proportional to wealth tial to be the most rational, There are practical implications would cease. Third, allocations effective and rapid means to of reaching a long-term global should converge over time to a end the consumption of agreement on an equitable position where entitlements fossil fuels globally. In the basis which quickly become are proportional to population. words of Aubrey Meyer, apparent. Developing coun- After convergence, all coun- Director of GCI, “The inte- tries would have a direct tries would contract their grated implementation of incentive to conserve energy greenhouse gas emissions this ‘Contraction and Con- and transfer quickly to renew- equally until the necessary vergence Allocation and able, non-fossil-fuel-based contraction limit is reached. No Trade’ programme can turn energy paths. For under the inflation of national budgets in a presently dangerous “Contraction and Conver- response to rising population global vicious circle of gence” mechanism, they will would be permitted after an political stalemate and acquire surplus emission agreed set date. ecological dissipation into entitlements which they can virtuous cycles of recovery The fundamental advantage of sell on the open market to and renewal. The consensus this approach is that its per finance the creation of renew- for survival needs this capita basis provides an or- able energy infrastructures. structure. Political and ganising principle for the These in turn will increase ecological anarchy is an negotiations which all the their surplus entitlements. alternative that guarantees parties recognise as fair and Industrial countries, with their nothing but increasing equitable. Essentially, human- much higher per capita energy tragedy.” ity is facing a global security use and thus greenhouse gas crisis and needs to drastically John Broad production, may choose to buy ration what is currently a vital Chairman emission permits to gain a resource, the absorptive Global Commons Trust, little time. But they will need capacity of the atmosphere. As Charitable Foundation to make major cuts and their Europeans discovered in two main efforts would need to go World Wars, a rationing sys- into conservation and renew-

121 June - Atmospheric Environment New Directions: Rebuilding the Climate Change Negotiations Philippe Pernstich at the resources safely avail- known to be known by other able to us in the future and parties (Barret. 1992 in: The Buenos Aires round of solve the question of distribu- Combating Global Warming, climate change negotiations tion from that angle. Study on a global system of have demonstrated that the tradeable carbon emission Kyoto Protocol is a landmark Equity has so far been the entitlements. United Nations, on the road to nowhere. The greatest stumbling block of New York). continuing divisions over the negotiations since the very details of the so-called Kyoto beginning of the process in Moral arbitrariness should be Mechanisms are an indication 1990. The resulting division avoided (Kverndokk, Environ- that the Protocol is not only into Annex I and non-Annex 1 mental Ethics, 4 (2) 1995, pp. inadequate in addressing the countries along the North 129-148). scientific facts of climate South divide seemed the The system should follow a change, but it is also politi- obvious answer from the simple allocation rule cally unworkable. historic perspective. Taking (Kverndokk, 1995 and Barret this division into the future, The debate over voluntary 1992). It should be consistent however, will preserve the targets, emissions trading and with other international policy imbalance without slowing Clean Development Mecha- goals, e.g. poverty alleviation down the climatic change. nism (CDM) have distracted in developing countries (Rose. There is no question that attention away from the 2nd 1992 in: Combating Global developing countries will not review of the adequacy of Warming). be able to increase emissions commitments under the indefinitely, so any delay in Any reallocation of emission Convention. the shift towards more sus- permits should cause minimal Consequently, the only conclu- tainable development paths disruption in the short term. sion to emerge from Buenos ultimately represents a loss of The targets set in the Kyoto Aires on this point was an opportunity for these coun- Protocol clearly fail the first acceptance that the Kyoto tries. No one can deny the three of these criteria. The Protocol was not sufficient to Untied Slates’ claim that complete lack of any underly- prevent harmful climatic climate change is a global ing structure to the Protocol change. Any talks about more problem and the conclusion means that it can only lead to meaningful measures, how- that it therefore requires a a dead-end. The focus of ever, have been postponed. global solution should be negotiations needs to shift The present impasse in the obvious. towards establishing a frame- negotiations is the result of a The problem of distributing a work upon which to build a failure to address the funda- scarce resource on a global long-term, efficient and effec- mental problem of distribution scale can only be solved on an tive solution to global warm- of a limited resource that is equitable basis. This is not for ing. far outstripped by demand. By any ethical considerations, hut One proposal for such a taking an historic perspective simply because it is the only framework that arises out of on the matter and trying to chance of reaching an agree- the consideration of the five agree on cuts of emissions ment that all major parties criteria listed above is known from present and past levels, can accept. There are five as ‘Contraction and Conver- we are bound to miss both criteria which will determine gence’. Unlike the present the scientific goal of concen- the success of any distribution approach, this takes the tration stabilisation and the model: ultimate objective of emission political requirement for The basis of allocation must stabilisation as its starting equity. be known to each party and point to determine a global Instead, we should be looking emissions curve over a fixed

122 period of 50-100 yr. or more. up to 2030 (see Fig. 1). best. This global budget is then In the case of the least devel- If the climate change negotia- allocated to countries accord- oped countries, entitlements tions are not to fail or become ing to a convergence path to would grow well beyond any meaningless in the next few equal per capita entitlements reasonably realistic growth of years, it will be necessary to by an agreed date. The enti- actual consumption, resulting take a big step back before tlements are allocated in in a surplus of entitlements. progressing on a more princi- budget periods of up to five At the same-time industrial- pled basis. Politically, the years and start out in the first ised countries would face challenge will be to achieve period with the current distri- quite rapid cuts in their enti- this without a seeming loss of bution of per capita emis- tlements reflecting the face on any side. For this sions, in each subsequent present gross over-consump- reason, the new approach period the allocation is ad- tion. Under a regime of con- would have to be initiated in justed to narrow the present vergence of emission entitle- parallel with the conclusion of inequity in emissions until all ments, trading of emissions is the Kyoto Protocol. countries receive equal per not only efficient but neces- capita entitlements. Fig. 1. Stabilisation scenario of sary. Reductions are achieved CO at 450 ppmv under “Con- ‘Contraction and Convergence’ at least cost, a transfer of 2 traction and Convergence” is a political framework that resources to developing including the Kyoto commit- can only work if all parties countries occurs and even ments. Convergence is com- accept the need to compro- those countries without any pleted by 2030 with a 70% mise in order to achieve the real constraints on emissions reduction in CO over 1990 Convention’s ultimate objec- in the near future have a real 2 levels. (AOSIS = Association tive. If this is achieved, then incentive to minimise their of Small Island States; ‘Contraction and Convergence’ emissions. JUSCANZ - Japan. USA. is the structure that can form Trading under these circum- Canada. Australia. New Zea- the basis of negotiations stance would he very different land.) regarding global budgets and from the present proposals, target dates. Without it, the where a weak trading regime acceptance of compromise will including ‘hot air’ amongst never he turned into commit- industrialised countries only is ments if each of the 160 further undermined by hypo- countries apply their own thetical savings achieved criteria. through the CDM and Joint In practical terms, for a stabi- Implementation. If credits lisation scenario off CO2 at from these mechanisms can 450 ppmv, for example, this he used to offset domestic would mean that most devel- action, the Kyoto commitment oping countries would be of a 5.2 reduction may well allocated an increasing budget turn out to he stabilisation at

123 September 21 - Independent PPPaying for pollution

Sir: For the last 200 years, and environmental damages. house gas pollution. However, wealth creation in the industr- This is the real debt crisis. as a precondition of develop- ing countries negotiating ialised countries has been Continuing with this increas- future commitments to re- running up an environmental ing chaos may well trigger the strain their pollution, the debt on the global account (“ ultimate threat to human “external” debts should be ‘Too late to stop global warm- society-a “runaway green- cancelled outright and imme- ing’ “,16 September). The house effect” beyond the diately. scale of this debt dwarfs the relevance of human “policy” financial debt owed by devel- to avert or adjust to it. In this AUBREY MEYER oping countries to their pollut- context of rising risk, it is ing creditors. Because of this, simply absurd to continue to such “external” debts should uphold the legitimacy of the be cancelled forthwith. unrepayable external debts of This global debt arises with very poor countries. the accumulation of pollution The debts were odious with- from fossil fuel consumption out climate change. These in the “commons” of the countries that are repeatedly global atmosphere. This “restructured” to repay them pollution mirrors the wealth are now additionally exposed and shows that those making to the increasing risks and the money have been making traumas of climate changes the mess. caused by accumulating The scale and rate of this pollution from their “credi- build up of “greenhouse tors”. gases” are completely without Developing countries - in their precedent. To an alarming own as well as everyone’s degree, we are all already interest- will have to become locked into long-term global part of the arrangements for trends of increasing and the restraint of global green- potentially unqualifiable social

124 September 8 - The Guardian Spinning out of control

World economy expand- age. The BBC even produced next 200 years while at the ing, greenhouse gases a graph, which is now on its same time the world economy reducing. Good news? website, showing that almost continued to grow at 3%, the Don’t you believe it, warn 250 tons of carbon had had to sort of rate that the World Aubrey Meyer and Richard be burnt in 1950 to produce Bank and other authorities Douthwaite $1m-worth of “wealth”, but would be pleased to see. that it now took only 150 tons The results are staggering. to do the same thing. Global income would be 369 When BP-Amoco announced The only thing which can be times above the present level at the end of last month that welcomed wholeheartedly is in 2200 and the efficiency the 6.5bn tons of fossil fuel the fact that CO2 emissions in with which fossil fuel was the world burnt last year was 1998 were less than the being used would have in- half a per cent less than the previous year. All the rest is creased sixtyfold. Unfortu- year before, the Worldwatch spin applied by Worldwatch to nately, the level of carbon Institute in Washington convince US politicians that dioxide in the atmosphere greeted the statement as the consequences of ratifying would be rising beyond 3,000 uniquely good news. the Kyoto Protocol - an inter- For the first time in history, national agreement which the institute said, greenhouse would legally bind the US to gas emissions had fallen in a cutting its greenhouse gas period in which the world emissions - might not be too economy, which grew 2.5% in bitter a pill to swallow. 1998, had continued to ex- What the statement over- pand. This suggested that looks, however, is that emis- economic expansion was sions of greenhouse gases being “de-linked” from carbon from fossil fuel burning, which emissions, undercutting are principally CO2, accumu- arguments that reducing ppmv (parts per million by late in the atmosphere. It is emissions would damage the volume) - 10 times the pre- this increasing concentration economy. industrial concentration - with of gases which is causing the incalculable effects on the In the past two years, world’s temperature to rise world’s climate. Indeed, 45bn Worldwatch explained, the and the climate to become tons of carbon would be global economy had grown by less stable. To stabilise these emitted annually, compared 6.8%, while carbon emissions rising concentrations, emis- with 7bn tons at present. In had held steady. This had led sions have to fall not by half a other words, the rate of to “an impressive 6.4% de- per cent or even 10%. They efficiency improvement hailed crease in the amount of must be cut by 60-80% as by Worldwatch is nothing like carbon emissions required to soon as possible. The longer fast enough. So we did an- produce $1,000 of income”. the delay, the hotter the other calculation to determine The improvement in energy planet will become. At the what the rate of efficiency efficiency had come about as Global Commons Institute we gain had to be to keep atmos- a result of higher standards decided to calculate what pheric concentrations of CO2 and the removal of energy would happen to levels of CO2 below 450ppmv if growth subsidies. in the atmosphere if the rate continued at 3%. The 450 of improvement in energy The British media gave the ppmv figure is a current efficiency detected by Worldwatch press release international target for CO2 Worldwatch continued for the generous and uncritical cover- levels, despite the fact that it

125 is 70% above the pre-indus- Worldwatch pointed out that trial level and takes the protecting ourselves against world’s climate into totally rising sea levels and the other unknown territory since it consequences of climate would be the highest CO2 change would take more concentration for 220,000 resources than the burning of years. the fossil fuels had created in the first place. Our results showed that world energy efficiency has to be And what is the quality of the improved by between 4-5% a growth that is currently being year every year for 100 years generated? Is it doing us, or until the 450 ppm level is anyone else, much good? It’s reached, and then by 3% a certainly not curing global year to maintain that level for poverty. Year after year, the as long as the 3% rate of United Nations Development economic growth continues. Project produces figures to In total, we would have to show that the gap between increase our efficiency of rich and poor is widening, carbon energy use by both within countries and 173,000%, which is clearly between them. Growth as we absurd. The question to be know it is making the world’s asked, therefore, is whether divisions more extreme. growth can continue. Cer- Thanks to its spin, the tainly, it would be much easier Worldwatch statement gave to reduce our CO2 emissions the impression that a real by the required amount if turning point had been growth stopped. According to reached on the road to solving Prof Malcolm Slesser, of the the climate crisis and that Resource Use Institute in hard decisions need not be Edinburgh, around 55% of all taken. the fossil energy we use is required to make the growth In other words, it suggested process happen. It is used to that radical change could be build the new factories, roads, avoided and that economic shopping centres and all the growth could go on. Whatever other things that economic its political motives, it could expansion entails. not have been more wrong. Moreover, it doesn’t make • Aubrey Meyer is a sense to continue trying to founder of the Global grow economically if, by doing Commons Institute so, we cause more damage to www.gci.org.uk. An ex- our planet than the growth we panded edition of Richard achieve brings in benefits. Douthwaite’s book, The This could be happening Growth Illusion, will be already because, while the published in October. fossil fuel we burn produces just this year’s income, the gases that get released from that fuel stay in the atmos- phere and will cause damage every year for, perhaps, 100 years. It is more than 10 years since

126 Sustainable Development Agenda 1999

The correction of global global climate changes. Condi- equity, the founding principle inequity is at the heart of the tions will become unbearable of the Climate Convention. crisis of global climate for all unless we now deliber- With this we can share and change. Like it or not, the ately correct this ever more then trade a GHG contraction time for sorting this out is unsustainable and inequitable budget internationally, ena- now, at the Fourth Conference mess together, The United bling the operation to meet of the Parties (COP4) in Nations Framework Conven- the objective of the conven- Buenos Aires in November tion on Climate Change (UN- tion - at least damage cost I998 FCCC) was created in 1992 for and abatement cost” globally. this purpose. Its objective is The impact of expanding To do this, Globe, the interna- to stabilise the rising concen- human greenhouse gas (GHC) tional network of parliamen- tration of GHG at a level that emissions on the climate tarians, proposes “contraction, is not dangerous to ecosys- system is causing global convergence allocation and tems and humanity. Such is temperatures to rise, putting trade”, the model created by the behaviour of the climate everyone at risk. The patterns the Global Commons Institute system that this objective of global consumption behind (GCI). Based on. The best requires a contraction of CHG this impact are deeply diver- available science and the emissions from human gent, Globally, it is a minority convention’s precautionary sources to 60~80 less than at of people who have caused principle, the COP could agree present. The Kyoto Protocol these impacts. Emissions of a safe global atmospheric created in December 1997 GHGs have been accumulating GHG concentration target, was the first attempt to intro- in the atmosphere since the This, by definition would duce legally binding commit- beginning of industrialisation, create a global GHG emissions ments to begin this contrac- and 80% of this accumulated contraction budget. The tion. impact has come from less international shares of this than 20% of the global popu- The industrial countries are could then be negotiated lation - those living in the supposed to be “taking the using the equity principle of industrial north. Since money lead”, but the wrangling convergence to equal per- supply and GHG emissions are continues. The USA has capita shares globally by an closely correlated, those refused to ratify the protocol, agreed date, with pro rata making the money have been saying that, unless all coun- reduction there-after. making the mess. As things tries are involved, the effort Once these global principles stand, the high-impact one- will be futile because it is one- had been agreed and applied, third of global population have sided. To be effective they say the resultant equitable inter- 94% of global purchasing we must have “globality” or national GHG shares could be power, the other two-thirds at ‘’meaningful participation by tradable. very low impact have the developing Countries’, as well remaining 6%, and things are as “flexibility’’, or the “interna- The sale of surplus shares getting worse, The fatalistic tional tradability of the com- from developing to developed maxim says the rich get richer mitments”’, so that they are countries could generate while the poor get poorer. achieved ‘’efficiently’’ or at revenue for the former to Maybe, but this now misses lowest cost. “leap-frog” fossil fuel depend- the point. While there may ency to clean technology; with Effectiveness and efficiency historically be no justice an interim “price buffer” for are indeed two of the three between them, rich and poor the latter against prematurely preconditions of success. alike are now threatened with retired assets, while the whole the worsening impacts of However, the third is global exercise accelerates the

127 avoidance of future global and survival as well. The damage to everybody’s ben- heads of state, at the Septem- efit. In short, the effective- ber summit of the 113 coun- ness of combining equity and tries of the NAM in Durban, efficiency is the “third way”, South Africa, signalled for the because for the first time third first time, as a majority block parties also win. of countries, their positive engagement with regard to Some people have responded globality, equity and efficiency. saying “contraction and con- The final NAM resolutions vergence’’ is intellectually state terms for an equitable perfect but politically impossi- global partnership for emis- ble. sions trading. But is what is currently This means that the USA can deemed politically possible have the effectiveness of under the UNFCCC and the globality and the efficiency of Kyoto Protocol also ecologi- emissions trading, but only in cally sustainable. And the exchange for equitable alloca- answer is no. The USA will tions of emissions entitle- inevitably continue to oppose ments for all countries agreed sub-global arrangements; the by all ‘countries. developing countries will obviously continue to oppose Global equity is the key to this the disunity of global inequity; fair exchange, and the oppor- and the absurd quarrel will go tunity to mandate it exists at on. COP4 in Buenos Aires. COP4 Buenos Aires is now an opportunity to put things right. “Contraction, conver- gence allocation and trade” is a widely known rationale for negotiating a global package for avoiding the dangerous changes. The Africa group of nations adopted this position before Kyoto. The Chinese and Indian governments declared for this position at the end of Kyoto. Before, during and since Kyoto, Globe International has campaigned for it with a growing number of parliamentarians and growing success in over 100 countries worldwide, in con- junction with organisations such as the Environmental Justice Network Porum. The European Parliament has just voted for it with a majority of 10:1. And now the majority Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) group has, in effect, adopted this rationale for global equity

128 2000

Economist (The world in 2000) As things hot up Global warming will preoc- taken to stem the increase, it thermal expansion of ocean cupy the next generation, will reach double its pre- water and the accelerated predicts Sir John Houghton of industrial value during the melting of glaciers, sea levels the intergovernmental Panel second half of the 21st cen- are likely to rise by approxi- on Climate Change. tury. As a result, the average mately half a metre by 2100. rate of warming of the climate Therefore, sea defences in One hundred years ago is expected to be greater than many coastal regions will Claude Monet painted scenes at any time during the past need to be improved, albeit at of London through its smoggy 10.000 years. This is not of considerable cost. However, atmosphere. That was local itself necessarily bad; some adaptation is just not possible pollution. What is relatively communities will experience a for countries with large river new and more worrying is net benefit. But many ecosys- deltas such as Bangladesh, global pollution—that is tems as well as humans will many island states in the pollution emitted by people find it difficult, if not impossi- Pacific. locally that has global effects. ble, to accept. The first example to emerge A second major result of was damage to the earth’s Although there is a lot of global warming will, be on ozone layer. International uncertainty concerning the average a more intense action was promptly taken detail, the basic science hydrological cycle leading to through the Montreal Protocol underlying global warming impacts on water distribution to phase out the use of the and climate change is well and availability. In many areas chemicals responsible. Al- understood. It is not in ques- heavy rainfall will tend to though full recovery of the tion. Hundreds of scientists become heavier while some ozone layer will now happen. from over 50 countries have semi-arid areas will receive It will take at least a century. contributed as authors or less rainfall. There will be reviewers to the assessments more frequent and more Another example is pollution of the Intergovernmental intense floods or droughts, that leads to global warming Panel on Climate Change especially in sub-tropical and climate change. Carbon (IPCC). Because of the uncer- areas. Since, in many places, dioxide and other “green- tainties it is easy either to water is rapidly becoming a house” gases such as meth- exaggerate the possible critical resource and since ane are released into the impacts to calamitous propor- floods and droughts are the atmosphere through the tions or to suggest that too natural disasters that already burning of fossil fuels (coal, little is known to justify any cause most deaths, misery oil and gas) and also through action. What the IPCC has and economic damage, these deforestation. These gases done is explain clearly what is could represent the most absorb “heat” radiation emit- known together with the damaging impacts of global ted by the earth’s surface that major uncertainties. Then warming. When combined would otherwise be lost to taking account of all relevant with the rise in sea levels, a space, so maintaining the scientific data, best estimates recent study has estimated surface and the lower atmos- have been provided of climate that this could lead to 150m phere at a warmer level than change and its impact over environmental refugees by normal. the next century. Here are a 2050. The amount of carbon dioxide few of the IPCC’S main find- Three widely accepted princi- in the atmosphere has al- ings and an outline of the ples will govern the interna- ready increased by over 30 agenda for the years ahead. tional agreements needed to since 1750 and. If no action is First, largely because of the meet this threat. The first is

129 the “Precautionary Principle”, 1997 is a first step. Necessary necessary action may cost already clearly imbedded in post-Kyoto action, however around 1% of the total world the UN Framework Conven- will be more demanding. The product, much less than the tion on Climate Change rate of increase of global likely cost of damage and agreed at the Earth adaptation if there is Summit in Rio in no action. If human 1992. This states that communities are to the existence of However, a proposal of the be fulfilled and uncertainty should Global Commons Institute that is creative, they not not preclude the being widely discussed applies the only need goals taking of appropriate second and third principles by al- related to their action. The reason for lowing eventually for the allocation economic perform- such action is simply of carbon emissions to nations on ance but also moral stated as the stabili- and spiritual goals. sation of the concen- an equal per capita basis while also Care for the overall trations of green- allowing for emissions trading. health of the planet), house gases (such as is such a goal. It carbon dioxide) in the demands action by atmosphere in ways scientists to provide that allow also for necessary emissions must first be sub- better information about likely economic development. The stantially slowed: then there climate change, by govern- second principle is the “Pol- must be reductions in these ments to set the necessary luter Pays Principle”, which emissions to well below 1990 frameworks for change, by implies the imposition of levels before the end of the business and industry to seize measures such as carbon next century. Many of the the opportunities for innova- trading arrangements. The required technologies to bring tion and the introduction of third is the “Principle of about these reductions are new technologies, and by all Equity (both intergovernmen- already available, but they world citizens to support the tal and international)” which require adequate resources action being taken and con- is the most difficult to apply. for investment and develop- tribute to it. ment. Studies show that the The action agreed at Kyoto in

January 2000 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Guesswork Framework” – GCI’s submission to the IPCC Third Assessment of Climate Change, Work- ing Group Three

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

130 May 19 - Church Times Preparing to fund the world reappraisal is needed of their the sums needed to sustain THE CAUSES of global warm- mandate, but the commitment distant sections of the world’s ing are still uncertain. It is behind their deployment population. For the immediate likely, though, that both remains. future, this is the only way to camps in the debate are right: These responses are pitifully fund feeding and resettlement we are currently near the small when measured against programmes for the large peak of one of the earth’s the scale of the disasters that numbers hit by drought or natural cycles in temperature; threaten large numbers of the flooding. Restrictions on and human activity is contrib- world’s population. 100 million energy use by the West are uting to climate change. currently at risk from drought only one part of the answer. Governments in the West in northern India: a further 16 The Western public must be have used the uncertainty to million in the horn of Africa. prepared to be taxed heavily justify inactivity, but, as Chris- One projection suggests that in order to fund resettlement tian Aid points out, too many three billion people will be at programmes, as parts of the people are at risk. Whether risk if changes to the climate world become uninhabitable. the causes of disasters are cannot be halted. Neverthe- Satisfying Western consumer natural or unnatural, their less, it could be argued that desire must give way to effects are observable and, in the West has laid down the meeting Third World want. some measure, preventable. roots of a global ethic, of the It is possible to be optimistic. kind advocated by Professor Seen over the past few dec- Hans Kung. Let us hope that ades, the public in the devel- the roots are deep enough, oped countries has taken for the task ahead is nothing steps towards a position of less than a dismantling of the global responsibility. Post- materialist vision that the imperialist attitudes towards West has held so long and still the Third World nations have wishes to export to the devel- improved markedly. oping world. The international media For we are at a halfway broadcast news of disasters house. The Western public is wherever in the world they not heedless of the suffering occur, and the public response in the most vulnerable parts is compassionate and gener- of the world; but it has yet to ous. The failure of UN stand the test of sacrifice; to peacekeepers in places like see its standard of living Sierra Leone suggests a dropping in order to release

131 May - Environmental Finance Climate Change, Risk & Global Emissions TTTradingradingrading

The potential costs of climate period 2008-2012. exponentially as a result of change are staggering. fossil fuel fired industrialisa- As part of the process, the tion. During this period hu- But, argue Aubrey Meyer Protocol proposed the interna- manity has released an accu- and Tony Cooper current tional trading of emissions mulated 250 billion tonnes of international policy is permits and the so-called this carbon from the burning inadequate. The answer ‘Clean Development Mecha- of oil, coal and gas to the lies in a truly global and nism’ (CDM). global atmosphere (chart). equitable solution The questions are will this These fossil fuel emissions Global weather patterns are trading happen, how will it be have been increasing at an becoming increasingly variable structured and will it help? average rate of 2% a year, to and violent as a result of the If the planet’s climate system a current annual output of higher temperatures caused is to be protected from dan- around six billion tonnes of by humankind’s pollution of gerous disruption, a rapid and carbon from CO2. the global atmosphere. Ac- orderly retreat from fossil fuel CO emissions from fossil fuel cording to figures released 2 dependency in favour of clean burning represent the princi- from German reinsurer Mu- and renewable forms of pal contribution to human nich Re, economic losses from energy is needed. Emissions enhanced global-warming. natural disasters have been trading must be primarily Half of these emissions have doubling every decade, from structured and directed to this remained in the atmosphere, $53 billion in the 1960s to end. It will become a vital part raising CO concentrations $480 billion in the 1990s. 2 of the process preventing the there by 35%, from the pre- 80% of these are from climate from changing cata- industrial 280 parts per million weather-related events. There strophically if it is. If it is not, by volume (ppmv) to a cur- is now great concern about it will make matters worse. rent 370 ppmv and with it, these damages and the rea- temperature by almost 1ºC. sons for their increase. What We argue that the answer is These trends are set to con- can we do to limit further “Contraction, Convergence, tinue unless a major effort is increases in these damages? Allocation and Trade” [C-CAT]. In a nutshell, countries agree made to change them. The objective of the United a reviewable global green- Climate scientists agree that Nations Framework Conven- house gas emissions ‘contrac- to stabilise these rising con- tion on Climate Change (UN- tion budget’ to match a pre- centrations - and hopefully FCCC) is to stabilise the cautionary and safe future thereby rising temperature - rapidly rising concentrations stable value for the rising requires cuts of 60%-80% of of greenhouse gases (ghgs) in (ghg) concentrations. The these emissions globally as the atmosphere at a level that internationally tradable shares soon as possible. The longer prevents disaster. in this budget are then agreed the delay the higher the The Kyoto Protocol - yet to be on the basis of ‘convergence’ concentrations will be. The ratified - will impose collec- from now, where shares are risk of temperature rising at a tively slight but legally binding proportional to income, to a rate that dangerously acceler- commitments only on ‘Annex target date in the budget ates the rate of global climate Parties’ to the UNFCCC, in time-line after which they changes increases other words on those from the remain proportional to an exponentially proportional to developed country group only. agreed base year of global delay. Because of positive They alone will have to reduce population. feedbacks, delay potentially or limit their net GHG emis- Sinxe 1860 the global takes us beyond our ability to sions by an average of 5.2% economy has grown prevent damages at all. In this below 1990 levels, by the

132 worst case scenario, increas- global solution, including or limitation commitments. ingly huge numbers of people participation – that is, with This means strictly that the will die in these. binding emissions limits – by principles of this new form of developing countries. These ‘ownership’ must be pre- Extrapolation and guesswork have justifiably argued that as defined, quantified and inter- about the future effects of the industrial countries have nationally accepted before it climate change misses the grown rich emitting an accu- can be traded. point. For dangerous changes mulated 80% of the emissions in global climate to be Developing countries are so far, they should take the avoided, a precautionary sometimes portrayed as lead in cutting the emissions framework for practical, seeking to influence the rules now without seeking to im- commercial-assisted action governing a scheme they have pose limitations on the rest of has to be devised, agreed and refused to join. In fact their the world. implemented. position has evolved over the This argument has dogged past few years. The position The UNFCCC identified poten- negotiations at the UN for the that developed countries must tially dangerous climate last ten years. Even if it is take the lead has come to changes as a global problem. temporarily overcome at the seem that just as ‘rights’ and Its global objective is seen as 6th Conference of the Parties ‘responsibilities’ are two sides dependent on observing the to the UNFCCC in the Hague of the same coin, that ‘com- principles of precaution and in November this year, ap- mitments’ are also ‘entitle- equity along with the need for proval of the US Senate is ments’. And in many recent ‘cost-effective’ measures. required for US ratification of statements they have said - In a literal sense the UNFCCC the Kyoto Protocol. Without consistent with the sequenced can already be seen as the this the Protocol seems un- logic of cap-and-trade - inter- “United Nations Framework workable. national emissions trading Convention for Contraction should be a priori dependent And even if this US veto is and Convergence”, because it on equitable entitlements to overcome, or if some key embraces the: - all countries, agreed by all developing countries are countries. This was the key ¨ precautionary imperative of persuaded to accept legally battle in the run-up to Kyoto contracting human emissions binding emissions restraint that led to Article 17 on trade of greenhouse gases globally now and the Protocol is rati- and COP-6 remains pointed at by 60%-80% as soon as fied, the problem won’t have this battle much as before. possible; gone away. It is obviously ¨diplomatic imperative of global and global participation If international trading of such ‘convergence’, that is having a in global GHG reduction is emissions ‘commitment/ framework to share this obviously needed. entitlements’ is to occur and in a way that lowers the international task on the basis For the moment the interna- overall damage costs and of of global equity; and tional dispute is further com- avoiding the damage, resolv- plicated by the fact that rules ¨potential efficiency benefits ing this argument is of funda- about tradable emissions of using market mechanisms mental strategic importance. – such as international emis- rights – which are presently sions trading and the CDM – sub-global in scope – are The parliamentarian’s network to maximise globally equitable under the UNFCCC’s global GLOBE International has emissions reductions per unit governing principles. Can the realised this and are conse- of expenditure. rules for sub-global emissions quently advocates of C-CAT. trading envisaged under Kyoto As their president Tom Spen- However, because emissions be viable if they are in conflict cer said at COP-4 in Buenos reduction under Kyoto are with the global principles of Aires in 1998, we must now restricted to the industrialised precaution and equity already move from the half-truth of world, the US is ambivalent agreed in the UNFCCC? Emis- sub-global commitments to about ratification, saying that sions trading can only occur the whole truth of global it is ‘anti-competitive.’ Its between countries that have entitlements. position has been that this accepted emission reduction global problem requires a Despite the fact that global

133 rights and global responsibili- governments collectively fossil fuel producers have ties are obviously inseparable, agree to be bound by an begun to demonstrate positive key developed countries - ultimate global target for safe interest in the concept. such as the UK - have re- and stable atmospheric ghg The under-recognised irony is mained slow to recognise it. concentration. It would re- that this matches the posi- ‘Commitments’ obviously main subject to annual scien- tions taken by the; - become ‘entitlements’ as soon tific and political review. This as they become tradable, as makes it possible to calculate (1) US Government in June trading what you don’t own is the diminishing amount of 1997 in the so-called Byrd theft. carbon dioxide and the other Hagel Resolution greenhouse gases that the As if to prove the point, the (2) Africa Group of Nations world can release for each UK recently announced their during the pre-Kyoto negotia- year in the coming century option to sell an 8% ‘over- tions while staying within this achievement’ against the UK’s target. (3) Non-Aligned Movement at emissions reductions commit- their Summit in Sept. 1998 ment agreed in Kyoto (1990 Convergence means that each levels minus 12% by 2008 - year’s ration of this global (4) European Parliament in ‘99 2012), to the US for around emissions budget gets shared (5) An increasingly numerous £100 million. out among the nations of the list of organisations and world so that every country From a developing country individuals around the world converges on the same alloca- perspective, this actually who explicitly advocate “C- tion per inhabitant by an amounts to profiting from CAT” model. agreed date. This rate of ‘under-commitment’ rather As an example, if GDP contin- convergence is negotiable. than ‘over-achievement’, at a ues to grow at 3% a year for This method recognises that time when increasingly violent the next hundred years while logic requires a pre-distribu- cyclones are causing damages the damages continue to grow tion of the rights to the ‘global and death in place like Ven- at 10%, global damages commons’ of the atmosphere ezuela, Orissa and Mozam- exceed global GDP by 2065! based on globally equal rights bique. In other words the UK The imperative of avoiding per capita. should have held to their this trend is self-evident. original commitment of minus Once agreed, countries unable The ‘traded area’ between 20% reductions as the Ger- to manage within their shares 2000 and 2100 in the accom- mans and the Danes have would, within limits, be able panying C-CAT graphic repre- done as its part of the deal in to buy the unused parts of the sents a potential exchange Kyoto. allocations of other, more between the North and the frugal, countries. Sales of GLOBE and GCI are part of a South. It is equivalent to100 unused allocations would give growing network of individu- billion tonnes of carbon or one the countries of the South the als, institutions, parliaments sixth of the total carbon income to purchase or de- and governments North and budget - and a significant velop zero-emission ways of South who recognise that C- fraction of the damages - meeting their needs. The CAT is the straightforward avoided for that period, if it is countries of the North would way to resolve all this. Be- an exchange of no-emissions benefit from the export mar- cause all countries must have technology and know-how. kets this restructuring would targeted and timetabled The carbon is equal to 500 create. And the whole world commitment/ trillion 1995 global $/tonnes, would benefit from the slow- but this is merely an average entitlements to control emis- ing the rate at which damage of 2% GDP a year for the next sions to achieve the objective was being done. of the UNFCCC, a global century. Because this is an effective, method of applying its global The imperative now is to equitable, efficient and flexible principles of precaution and direct the larger % of this into framework in which govern- equity is inevitably required. this clean energy transition up ments can co-operate to avert front, because the risk is all Contraction means that, for climate change, even some precautionary reasons, all front-end loaded. The obvious

134 Recorded surface temperature has risen by 0.9°C between 1860 and 2000.

Future projections follow CO2 emissions and atmospheric ghg concentrations (in ppmv - parts per million by volume). The red line shows how temperature will rise with a Business-as-Usual (BAU) 2% annual growth in emissions. The blue line shows the lowest possible climate sensitivity - a tota1rise of 1.5°C - assuming a 60% global TEMPERATURE 4 emissions contraction by 2100.

3 BAU The recorded rise in atmospheric CO2 concentra- Lowest outcome with C&C below tion from 1860 until 2000 shows an increase of 2 34% over pre-industrial levels. This is a rise 1 both higher and a faster than anywhere in the Celsius ice-core sampling back 440,000 years before 0 now. Concentrations are rising as the result of accumulating emissions. The red line shows the -1 worst case scenario. The best case sees this rise stabilised at twice today’s level due to a 60% CO2 CONCENTRATION 1050 global contraction in the underlying emissions by 2100. 850 BAU Lowest outcome to C&C below Damages here are the global economic losses 650 (Munich Re) for the four decades past for all ppmv natural disasters projected at the observed rate 450 of increase of 10% a year in comparison to 250 global $GDP at 3%. If the global trends continue BAU, damages will exceed GDP by 2065. The risks will soon become uninsurable beyond the DAMAGES BAU $200 capacity of the insurance industry and govern- ments to absorb and the damages will be beyond the capacity of societies to cope. $100 Damages will rise for the century ahead even Damages @10% /year with emissions contraction, but the rate can be GDP @3%/year Trillions reduced if C-CAT is rapid and orderly. $ For the past four decades, the output of CO2 and 12% GDP from global industry have been correlated C O 2:G D P 'L o c kstep ' b ro ken nearly 100% (known as the ‘lock-step’). Future 8% GDP is projected here at 3% a year. Future CO2 goes negative equal to the retreat from fossil CO2 C&C 4% fuel dependency shown below, that limits CO GDP% 2 concentrations to 70% above pre-industrial 0% levels, shown above. Breaking the lock-step needs up to minus 5% annual emissions globally -4% to reduce the probability of appalling damages. The redline shows BAU CO2 emissions. The solid C O 2 EM ISSIO N S B AU or C -C AT segments show “Contraction, Convergence, 20 Gtc Allocation and Trade” [C-CAT] to manage Non Annex One emissions down by at least 60% within a given 15 Gtc Traded Area time frame with an agreed ‘contraction budget’ Annex One (here 680 billion tonnes of carbon). The 10 Gtc B-a-U internationally tradable shares of this budget 5 Gtc result from convergence to equal per capita by an agreed date and population base year (here Gtc 2020). The ‘traded area’ is the difference 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 between that and convergence by 2100 (here, 100 billion tonnes). Ideally these are avoided emissions as well due to investment of the proceeds of trade in zero-emissions technolo- gies. Thus lowering risk and damages further.

135 need for this is disguised only equity swap”. Using emissions by the fact that ‘economics’ is trading to avoid carbon by a snap-shot discipline that funding no emissions technol- also regards the poor (Orissa ogy and development instead, Mozambique) as being an particularly to start with in the ‘affordable’ damage cost. developing world, lowers the Since there’s no net meaning- global bill for damages while ful GDP 65 years out, this buying time for the orderly discipline destroys us all in the retreat from fossil fuel de- end. pendency in the North. How- ever, with C-CAT up and The central challenge to running, this is trade for governments is establishing equity and in the best sense – the precautionary global global equity, survival and framework of C-CAT now. The prosperity for everyone. central challenge to industry, and especially the insurance sector, is in realising the global economic value of becoming supporters and advocates of such a frame- work, by realising the global market opportunity that the rapid, orderly retreat from fossil fuel dependency cre- ates. With the framework agreed, we have a chance of avoiding the worst of the immense damages to come. Without it we haven’t got a chance. Moreover, as soon as the fossil fuel producers and the associ- ated technology producers know that there is a global emissions cap secured by an international long-term agree- ment to share on the basis of convergence, the real value of emissions trading is secure. The greatest incentive in trade under these conditions will not – as at present – be to filibus- ter and cheat. It will be to conserve both the value of carbon permits and the possi- bility of prosperity everywhere by switching to the capture and potentially endless use of renewable energy. In the polarised world of North/South relations, some members of GLOBE have called C-CAT the “trade for

136 June 28 - BBC online The human price of Mozambique’s

worst from extreme weather eight-fold.” conditions linked to climate The report acknowledges the change. Today, 96% of all recurrence of natural cooling deaths from natural disasters and warming cycles in the occur in developing countries. Earth’s history, but says Increasing disasters humanity is now “moving beyond natural climatic varia- “By 2025, over half of all tions”. people living in developing countries will be ‘highly vul- It argues that all nations will By environment corre- nerable’ to floods and storms.” have to live within “one global spondent Alex Kirby environmental budget”, which The report says this year’s will mean a drastic change The world’s largest non- floods in Mozambique were from the situation today, governmental aid organisation just the latest example of when “industrialised countries says the developed countries’ climate-induced disasters. generate over 62 times more polluting lifestyles represent a Others were the flooding in carbon dioxide pollution per massive debt owed to the Bangladesh and eastern India, poor. person than the least devel- oped countries”. The charge comes in The report contrasts the the World Disasters Aubrey Meyer of GCI told monetary debts owed by Report 2000, published BBC News Online: by the International developing countries to Federation of Red Cross “This endorsement by the Fed- their wealthy creditors and Red Crescent Socie- eration, which is a fairly cautious with the rich world’s ties. group, shows that contraction climate debt. and convergence is an idea The report says the “By using fossil fuels at a developed world’s whose time has come.” level far above a thresh- pollution is heating the old for sustainable con- planet, with potentially sumption, year after year the carbon debts of rich drastic consequences for all storms in Venezuela, and the countries get bigger.” on Earth. effects of El Nino. It says the poorest states, the And it argues that everybody, “When Hurricane Mitch hit heavily indebted poor coun- rich and poor, should have an Central America, the Hondu- tries, are owed up to three equal right to pollute the ran president commented: times as much in carbon atmosphere. ‘We lost in 72 hours what we credits as they owe in dollars. The report says: “Reckless have taken more than 50 human use of fossil fuels - years to build’. But the world’s richest nations have amassed a climate debt overwhelmingly by industrial- “According to the re-insurance totalling $13 trillion, the ised countries - has helped giant MunichRe, the number report says. raise the spectre of climate of great weather-related and change, which darkens every- flood disasters quadrupled Compelling respect one’s horizon. during the 1990s compared to The Federation argues for a “But poor people in poor the 1960s, while resulting policy to match the structural countries suffer first and economic losses increased adjustment programmes

137 imposed on many developing Aubrey Meyer of GCI told BBC ing, in the last two decades, countries, which force their News Online: “This endorse- of the low to mid-troposphere economies into line with ment by the Federation, which - the atmospheric layer ex- Western norms. is a fairly cautious group, tending up to about 8km from shows that contraction and the Earth’s surface. It says there is a need for convergence is an idea whose sustainability adjustment Climate models generally time has come.” programmes, which would predict that temperatures compel rich countries to Some researchers still doubt should increase in the upper respect the common environ- that human activities are air as well as at the surface if ment. inducing rapid climate change. increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing And it endorses the idea of They highlight the inconsist- the warming recorded at contraction and convergence, encies between the tempera- ground level. which would mean that citi- ture records taken at the zens of every country, rich or Earth’s surface, which show poor, would be entitled to emit rapid warming over the last the same amounts of climate- century, and the data pro- changing pollution, an idea duced by satellite and balloon pioneered by the London- studies. based Global Commons Insti- These show little if any warm- tute.

August - Parliamentary Monitor “Contraction and Convergence” and the changing climate By David Chaytor MP - Chair These are meaningful words. proportional to income, to a GLOBE UK They concur in the UK with target date in the budget those of Michael Meacher and time-line after which they On Friday the 16th of June the John Gummer, and many remain proportional to an UK Royal Commission on others including GLOBE UK agreed base year of global Environmental Pollution and Alan Simpson MP who population. (RCEP) published its 22nd made the case for “Contrac- report “Energy - the changing The United Nations Frame- tion and Convergence” in the climate”. work Convention on Climate Parliamentary Monitor two Change (UNFCCC) gave rise to They made 87 recommenda- years ago. the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. tions to the government. The The Royal Commission’s Interim negotiations to finish third of these says: - advocacy of this assists its this have just halted in Bonn. “The government should growing international support. So far business left unfinished press for a future global in Kyoto is still unfinished. In a nutshell, countries agree climate agreement based Charged with establishing the a reviewable global green- on the ‘contraction and ‘principles, rules and modali- house gas emissions ‘contrac- convergence’ approach, ties’ governing the Protocol’s tion budget’ to match a pre- combined with international so-called ‘flexible mechanisms’ cautionary and safe future trading in emission permits. - such as international emis- stable value for the rising Together, these offer the sion trading and the ‘clean (ghg) concentrations. The best long-term prospect of development mechanism’ - internationally tradable shares securing equity, economy negotiators struggle because in this budget are then agreed and international consen- these principles must be on the basis of ‘convergence’ sus.” subordinate to the global from now, where shares are objective and principles of

138 precaution and equity on without seeking to impose ness, designed to halt the which the Convention is equal emissions responsibili- damages caused by climate based. ties on the rest of the world changes. This necessarily sees unless and until the rights the cost-effectiveness of sub- Remembering this and acting upon which these are based global emission abatement as on the Commission’s ‘global’ are recognised as equal as important but as subordinated advice, the UK Government well. Saying that these must to the global purpose of could play a unique role in be ‘equitable for all countries’, avoiding damages. As the UK saving the Protocol from many explicitly invoke the example cited above reveals, failure in The Hague. The “Contraction and Conver- such sub-global abatement- stakes are high. If it fails, the gence” approach. This stand cost effectiveness actually ‘sub-global’ arguments that off is resolvable quite simply neutralizes global damage- destroy it threaten the Con- in terms of “Contraction and cost effectiveness by attempt- vention itself. Convergence” as the Royal ing to re-legalize the struc- If completed and ratified the Commission has also now tural conditions that prolong Protocol will impose collec- affirmed. the inequitable and thus tively slight but legally binding unsustainable global status As envisaged at present - by commitments only on ‘Annex quo. As presently ‘consoli- and for the industrial country One Parties’ to the UNFCCC, dated’ for The Hague, the group only - rules for emis- in other words on those from negotiating text out of Bonn sions trading are ineffective the developed country group could not be clearer on this because they are only sub- only. They alone will have to point, or that “Contraction and global in scope and thus reduce or limit their net Convergence” is seen by inconsistent with the global greenhouse gas emissions by many as the obvious way to governing principles in the an average of 5.2% below clarify and resolve this for this Convention. This reflects the 1990 levels, by the period long term. error of seeing ‘cost-effective- 2008-2012. While quantita- ness’ in terms of ‘sub-global’ Munich Re-Insurers show tively inadequate, this could emissions abatement cost climate change related dam- be justified as a ‘first-step’. only. ages rising at up to 10% a Because emissions control year over the last 40 years. In other words if - as at under the Kyoto Protocol is The graphic demonstrates this present - the question, “how still restricted to the industrial- amongst factors relevant to cheaply can my sub-global ised world only, the US is understanding why global emissions be avoided or off- hostile to ratification, saying damage-cost-effectiveness set?” is answered, “by grow- that it will be ineffective. The needs “Contraction and Con- ing low-cost trees in poor Byrd Hagel Resolution of the vergence.” We need very soon countries and by spinning US Senate insists that devel- to collectively agree to enact under-commitment as over- oping countries must also this framework for solutions achievement,” this simply reduce or limit their emissions based on equity and survival compounds controversy. As if if US ratification of Protocol to and faster than we create the to prove the point, the UK occur. In effect the US advo- warming problem we are recently announced their cates “Contraction and Con- trying to solve otherwise our option to sell an 8% ‘over- vergence”, as any other way charades will end in tragedies. achievement’ against the UK’s of addressing this issue would emissions reductions commit- A commitment in the Hague replicate the very randomness ment agreed in Kyoto (1990 to proceed this way in future to which they sensibly object. levels minus 12% by 2008 - negotiations should be Developing countries on the 2012), to the US for around enough to rescue the process other hand, have correctly £100 million. now for the larger process of argued that as the industrial rescuing the planet and all it’s As the Royal Commission countries have grown rich peoples through generations recognises, ‘cost-effective- emitting an accumulated 80% ahead. Tony Blair should be a ness’ is a charade unless and of the emissions to date, they natural champion in this until it is understood first as should ‘take the lead’ in cause. global damage-cost effective- cutting the emissions now

139 Recorded surface temperature has risen by 0.9°C between 1860 and 2000.

Future projections follow CO2 emissions and atmospheric ghg concentrations (in ppmv - parts per million by volume). The red line shows how temperature will rise with a Business-as-Usual (BAU) 2% annual growth in emissions. The blue line shows the lowest possible climate sensitivity - a tota1rise of 1.5°C - assuming a 60% global emissions contraction by 2100.

The recorded rise in atmospheric CO2 concentra- tion from 1860 until 2000 shows an increase of 34% over pre-industrial levels. This is a rise both higher and a faster than anywhere in the ice-core sampling back 440,000 years before now. Concentrations are rising as the result of accumulating emissions. The red line shows the worst case scenario. The best case sees this rise stabilised at twice today’s level due to a 60% global contraction in the underlying emissions by 2100. Damages here are the global economic losses (Munich Re) for the four decades past for all natural disasters projected at the observed rate of increase of 10% a year in comparison to global $GDP at 3%. If the global trends continue BAU, damages will exceed GDP by 2065. The risks will soon become uninsurable beyond the capacity of the insurance industry and govern- ments to absorb and the damages will be beyond the capacity of societies to cope. Damages will rise for the century ahead even with emissions contraction, but the rate can be reduced if C-CAT is rapid and orderly.

For the past four decades, the output of CO2 and GDP from global industry have been correlated nearly 100% (known as the ‘lock-step’). Future

GDP is projected here at 3% a year. Future CO2 goes negative equal to the retreat from fossil fuel dependency shown below, that limits CO2 concentrations to 70% above pre-industrial levels, shown above. Breaking the lock-step needs up to minus 5% annual emissions globally to reduce the probability of appalling damages. The redline shows BAU CO2 emissions. The solid segments show “Contraction, Convergence, Allocation and Trade” [C-CAT] to manage emissions down by at least 60% within a given time frame with an agreed ‘contraction budget’ (here 680 billion tonnes of carbon). The internationally tradable shares of this budget result from convergence to equal per capita by an agreed date and population base year (here 2020). The ‘traded area’ is the difference between that and convergence by 2100 (here, 100 billion tonnes). Ideally these are avoided emissions as well due to investment of the proceeds of trade in zero-emissions technolo- gies. Thus lowering risk and damages further.

140 June - Independent Little man’s big idea could save the world A ROYAL Commission report been responsible for 80 per promoting the concept. will this week confirm that cent of the pollution to date - The Commission will also one ordinary person, working would have to make big cuts. conclude that new taxes are alone and with little re- Developing ones would be needed to wean Britain off oil, sources, has the power to allowed to emit more, but gas and coal and help save change the world. would have moderate their the world’s climate, putting it planned increase. And they He is Aubrey Meyer, a musi- into conflict with the Govern- could sell their emission rights cian from London, and his ment by proposing a “carbon to rich countries to get money idea on how to cut emissions tax” on fossil fuels to combat to develop clean technologies. of carbon dioxide world-wide global warming - something Mr. Meyer, 53, has devoted will be endorsed at length by ministers have opposed more than a decade, with the Royal Commission on virtually no resources, to The commission’s report, to Environmental Pollution. It is be published on Friday, will already the official policy of call on the Government to India, China and many draw up plans to cut Brit- African countries and is ain’s carbon dioxide emis- getting increasing attention sions - the main cause of from Western ministers. His global warming, from idea was that everyone on burning coal, gas and oil, by earth should have the right 60 per cent over the next to emit the; same amount 50 years. of carbon dioxide. He then worked out what each nation would be entitled to, on this basis, if emissions were cut by 60 per cent world-wide. Rich countries - who have

141 June - ENDS Report 305305eport RCEPRCEPRCEP’s energy futures under a CO2 ceiling

The Royal Commission on mendation couched in similar vergence, each country would Environmental Pollution terms. receive an emission quota at (RCEP) has set out a radical its current emission level. The "Contraction and Conver- agenda for transforming the quotas of developed nations gence" UK's energy supply system would be gradually reduced, and reducing energy demand. The report takes the threats and those of developing Massive development of posed by climate change as a countries increased, until they renewable energy and other given. The RCEP received converged at a uniform per alternative sources will be submissions from the right- capita global figure. Thereaf- needed, it says, to achieve wing Institute of Economic ter, each national quota would the 60 reduction in carbon Affairs and "a major oil com- be reduced so that global dioxide emissions which may pany" that the science was emissions contracted and be necessary within 50 years too uncertain to justify policy atmospheric concentrations of to contribute to a globally changes. It disagrees. greenhouse gases did not equitable solution to the There is, the report says, "a exceed an agreed level. problem of climate change. very strong likelihood" that The RCEP's concern was with The RCEP must have been the impacts of climate change CO2 only. Atmospheric con- stung by the outcome of its will be "seriously damaging". centrations of CO2 have risen latest quinquennial review And there is a possibility that from 270ppm in pre-industrial earlier this year, which con- "abrupt changes in the cli- times to 370ppm today. The cluded that many among its mate system might be trig- RCEP chose 550ppm as the target audiences were only gered and have even more ceiling which CO2 should not "vaguely aware" of its work. dramatic impacts." be allowed to break through - though some, like the GCI, Members will be happier with The appropriate reaction, the argue that the figure should the publicity their new report report says, must be to im- apply to all greenhouse received. And they will also prove the UK's energy effi- gases. A limit of 550ppm be pleased that Industry ciency drastically and reform could be met along many Minister Patricia Hewitt its energy supply and distribu- paths. The RCEP took 2050 as quickly promised that the tion system beyond recogni- the year by which each coun- Government will aim to re- tion over the next half-cen- try's emissions will have spond within a year. tury - starting very soon. converged to a uniform per The report is likely to be one The programme envisaged by capita figure. On this basis, of the Commission's most the RCEP was shaped by its the UK's emissions of CO2 important, ranking alongside acceptance of the "Contrac- would have to fall by almost the 1994 report on transport, tion and Convergence" ap- 60 from the 1997 level by the 1983 report on lead and proach to reducing green- mid-century. the 1976 report on nuclear house gas emissions. This power. The latter is still re- was developed by a former membered for advising musician, Aubrey Meyer, against a large nuclear pro- whose Global Commons gramme until a method of Institute (GCI) has promoted containing long-lived radioac- it over the past decade to the tive waste indefinitely into the point where it is a leading future had been demon- concept in international strated. Successive Govern- thinking about how emissions ments took no notice, and the should be controlled beyond con-sequences are all too the Kyoto Protocol's "commit- alive today - as the RCEP ment period" of 2008-12. makes clear with a recom- Under contraction and con-

142 Summer - Corporate Watchatchatch Keeping the climate in the common treasurytreasurytreasury

The Global Commons this continues, the gross Institute is calling for global destruction of wealth would return atmospheric equity to be at the core of from climate change will concentrations to today’s the global movement to actually exceed its alleged value within a hundred years stop climate change. To creation each year. A failure to and limit the worst of the entrench this it advocates act despite this glaringly damage. a pattern of ‘Contraction obvious impending disaster and Convergence’. demonstrates how fixed are The international shares in the blinkers on the energy this budget would then be Aubrey Meyer explains. industry. The level of change ‘pre-agreed’ on the basis of needed is profound. ‘convergence’ from now, Changes in global climate where shares are proportional The scientific evidence linking have never until now been to income, to a target date in these damage trends to caused by human beings. the budget time-line - say human pollution is now ac- Now, human pollution to the 2030 - after which they re- cepted by most major scien- atmosphere is accumulating main proportional to an tific, political and commercial so fast it is trapping increas- agreed base year of global institutions. ingly more of the sun’s heat population. This means that than is released back to And yet they have failed to ‘over-consumers’ like the US space. It is this rise in global come forward with effective contract sharply, while ‘under- surface temperature that is plans to slow the damages consumers’ like Bangladesh implicated in the more and and to help the victims of can continue to rise for a more variable and violent those damages that aren’t while. This is a politically weather events and damages prevented. The dominant feasible way of instituting a around the world, in places priority of business and gov- precautionary and equitable like Honduras, Orissa and ernments remains the growth global framework, by applying Mozambique. of financial profits in spite of the principle of ‘equal rights’. this growing negative impact. These are as much social as A rapid and orderly retreat A profit to whom, we might environmental disasters, and from fossil fuel dependency in ask? the trend of their increase is favour of clean and renewable well established and getting Contraction and Convergence forms of energy is obviously faster. Even within corpora- means, in a nutshell, that all needed. And if there is any tions’ own criteria for success the countries that make up agreement to have interna- - the financial bottom line - the United Nations Framework tional emissions trading, it the situation is rapidly becom- Convention on Climate must be structured to this end ing untenable. Insurance Change (UNFCCC) would and secured on the basis of industry figures for ‘economic agree a revisable global equity, as Contraction and losses’ from ‘natural disasters’, greenhouse gas emissions Convergence, and even the show damages growing ‘contraction budget’. This UN’s own Climate Convention, globally at a staggering 8% a would secure a precautionary require. As such, trade may year since the 1960s. This is and safe future stable value play a vital part in preventing 5% faster than the rate at for the rising greenhouse gas catastrophic changes in the which we supposedly ‘create concentrations – say 80% climate by hastening the wealth’ measured as GDP cuts globally by 2060. If we avoidance of emissions. (Gross Domestic Product). If were lucky this level of cuts

143 Contraction and Convergence indlet.html equal per capita by an agreed is just a framework for the Aubrey Meyer works with date and population base year numerous and diverse practi- the Global (here 2020).The ‘traded area’ cal actions and changes that Commons Institute - is the difference between that are necessary to save the www.gci.org.uk and convergence by 2100 planet from climate change (here, 100 billion tonnes). If disaster. It is not a cure-all. this is invested in no-emis- [Contraction and conver- But it may well be politically sions technologies, risk and gence] means that ‘over- necessary if there is to be an damages are lowered further consumers’ like the US con- effective, precautionary agree- as the budget is then net of tract sharply, while ‘under- ment at the global level. these emissions as well. consumers’ like Bangladesh Key to Contraction and Con- can continue to rise for a vergence is the need for it to while. This is a politically also be empowering at a local feasible way of instituting a level. With reference to the precautionary and equitable larger scheme, people can use global framework, by applying the same argument to organ- the principle of ‘equal rights’ ise for equity within their societies and communities in their own countries. This is a C02 concentrations Recorded radical approach - one which rise in atmospheric C02 con- re-normalises equity at each centration from 1860 until level of political discourse. 2000 shows an increase of 34 over pre-industrial levels. This Locally, nationally and glo- is a rise both higher and bally, we all need an agree- faster than anywhere in the ment to secure fragile and ice-core sampling back finite resources. Strengthen- 440,000 years before now. ing broad strategies to reach Concentrations are rising as some agreement will not be the result of accumulating easy. However, continuing our emissions. In future, the current behaviour is no more worst case is the upper line as than an endgame for human- Business-As-Usual (BAD).The ity with the rich finally com- best case sees this rise stabi- mitting suicide by continuing lised at twice today’s level due to rob the poor. to a 60 global contraction in It is morally but also practi- the underlying emissions by cally sensible to avoid this. 2100. Contraction and Convergence thus presents the simple idea of equity for survival. It puts the need to protect people C02 emissions The upper line and planet ahead of the need shows Business-As-Usual C02 for profits. In practice we all emissions. The solid segments do have equal responsibilities show “Contraction, Conver- in this but it can only work as gence, Allocation and Trade” part of an overall agreement [C-CAT] to manage emissions that is sustainable in total down by at least 60 within a secured on the principle of given time frame with an equal rights. agreed ‘contraction budget’ The founding statement (here 680 billion tonnes of for this and the Global carbon).The internationally Commons Network is at tradable shares of this budget http://www.gci.org.uk/ result from convergence to

144 December 8 - Guardian Going to war against climate change

The post-Hague hiatus may house gas emissions, but a 14 unconventional” fuel sources. provide an opportunity to per cent increase over the But this fuel didn’t actually address the problems of period 1990 - 2010. Some exist, it was an exercise in climate change, says Andrew said that the manipulation of creative accounting to stop Simms so-called carbon sinks was a policy makers from worrying. form of carbon laundering. Looking ahead for the next few decades, uncertain com- Indeed, the current hiatus After the Hague summit, a fort is now available from new could turn out to be an oppor- meeting in Bonn, in May 2001 projections that fill the supply- tunity. Firstly, because people will provide the next opportu- demand gap with fossil fuels are increasingly aware that

“There is a model called contraction and convergence rapidly gaining sup- port. Already backed by many developing countries, its principles were endorsed in The Hague by Belgium, France and Sweden and it accords with the US desire for a truly global solution. Pioneered by the London-based Global Commons Insti- tute it was also recently endorsed by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution. It works by setting a global cap on greenhouse gas concentrations, with an emissions budget that is reduced over time. Tradable emissions rights are then pre-distributed on a per-capita basis, converging globally to equal shares per person by an agreed date, for example 2030.”

the consequences of declining nity for politicians from indus- that have only a 5% chance fossil fuel resources and trialised countries to agree of discovery. climate change cannot be how to reduce greenhouse avoided. And secondly, be- Statistically, neither sinks nor gas emissions. The current cause more coherent solutions better efficiency can make the target for developed countries than the Kyoto Protocol are necessary cuts in emissions, is a 5.2% overall emissions being promoted and gathering or deal with declining oil reduction. The Intergovern- support. supplies. Over a 200 year mental Panel on Climate period efficiency would need Change (IPCC) says that 60 - In 1965 discoveries of new oil to improve nearly 200 thou- 80% is needed, while the sources peaked. Thirty-five sand per cent. It seems we head of the UN Environment years later the growth in oil must brace ourselves for the Programme puts the figure at production has also peaked equivalent of an environmen- 90%. Fogged by diplomatic and begun its long decline. In tal war economy in order to incidents the way forward 1998, adding together total reduce consumption. becomes harder. world energy demand over the next few decades with Past experience shows that The potential loopholes in the known or anticipated available the shift to a low-energy Kyoto Protocol meant that a fuel sources, the International economy needn’t be all bad. bad agreement in the Hague Energy Agency noticed there The alternative of business- could have been worse than was a gap between supply as-usual also looks far worse. none. The original negotiating and potential demand. Projections based on data position of the United States collected by the reinsurance allowed for a deal that might To fill the gap it used some- giant Munich Re show that by have led not to a cut in green- thing called “unidentified about the year 2065 the

145 economic costs of climate At the moment the internal distributed on a per-capita change could surpass the dynamics of globalisation are basis, converging globally to value of total world economic making us more, not less, fuel equal shares per person by an output. Already by 2025, half dependent. Air freight, the agreed date, for example of all people living in develop- most polluting transport 2030. ing countries will be vulner- mode, has gone from virtually While the city of Bonn may no able to extreme weather zero fifty years ago, to the longer house the German events, floods and storms equivalent of flying one ton of government, next May it will according to the UN. goods over 100 billion kilome- be at the centre of the most tres a year. New generations Conventional economic important international nego- of planes are being built, growth is hard-wired to rising tiation there is. thirsty for fossil fuel, which greenhouse gas emissions and will need to fly for decades • Andrew Simms is head concentrations - the so-called still to pay-off construction of the global economy lock-step. The question is how costs. programme at the New to break that lock-step and Economics Foundation and manage our withdrawal from There is a model called con- co-author of: Collision fossil-fuels in as painless a traction and convergence Course - Free trade’s free way as possible, within an rapidly gaining support. Al- ride on the global climate orderly framework? ready backed by many devel- oping countries, its principles Transport, trade and agricul- were endorsed in The Hague ture are the parts of our by Belgium, France and Swe- economy that are especially den and it accords with the fuel-addicted. But given the US desire for a truly global right approach and the neces- solution. Pioneered by the sary policy tools there is no London-based Global Com- reason why we cannot turn mons Institute it was also things around and benefit recently endorsed by the from the process. During the Royal Commission on Environ- Second World War we mental Pollution. It works by adapted to measures for setting a global cap on green- radical resource conservation. house gas concentrations, Even in the United States fuel with an emissions budget that was strictly rationed to elimi- is reduced over time. Tradable nate unnecessary travel. emissions rights are then pre-

146 2001 - Chartered Insurance Institute Climate change and insurance Read full chapter at: - http://www.gci.org.uk/Insurers/Chap10_CII_(C&C).pdf

Chapter 10: General strategies

winds, surrounded by the sea and has considerable need to emit more than their share will have to buy biomass capacity in Scotland. Attempts to speed up the emission entitlements from those that have an excess. transition to renewables should be accelerated to match This would operate in much the same way as the progress in Europe, especially Denmark and Germany. envisaged emissions trading scheme to be set up within However, under normal commercial circumstances, the the Kyoto Protocol. transition to renewable energy will not be quick enough Figure 10.9 illustrates this process, showing that by the or wide enough to deliver the required emission cuts. year 2100 emissions will have fallen to well below Contraction & convergence today’s levels, and will emanate from what are, today, The most realistic way to bring about the required developing countries. Since economic progress is reduction in ghg emissions (which will have the dependent on energy, the shortfall from ‘Business as combined effect of reducing the damage imposed on the usual’ energy consumption will need to be met from two insurance industry and encouraging the transition to directions: efficiency gains, and a rapid growth in renewable energy) is that proposed in the concept of renewable energy sources. It is clear from this that Contraction and Convergence (C&C). This concept was emissions trading can only be an intermediate stage, created by the Global Commons Institute (GCI) and is since the total volume of emissions must fall. incredibly simple in its detail. Essentially, everyone has The only blockage to this simple system is the absence of the right to emit an equal amount of pollution (in this political will to ‘step outside the box’ instead of case CO2) to the Global Commons (atmosphere). conducting a tortuous round of negotiations of the At present society emits six billion tonnes of carbon a Kyoto Protocol. One way to unblock this impasse is to year (6Gtc) to the atmosphere. Coincidentally there are amass a large enough consensus of stakeholders behind six billion people alive today—hence everyone should the concept of contraction and convergence, persuading be entitled an equal right to emit 1 tonne/yr. To achieve governments to supersede the Kyoto Protocol. the required global reduction in ghg emissions an agreed The insurance industry is an obvious place to start such target of say 2Gtc by 2040 could be set and the system a campaign as it has so much to lose and so much to allowed to contract to that global budget by converging gain. If society continues down the fossil/Kyoto route, on an agreed per capita allowance. Those states that future economic losses are likely to become

The red line shows Business as usual CO2 emissions (BAU). The solid segments show ‘Contraction, Convergence, Allocation and Trade’ tomanage emissions down by at least 60% within a giventime frame and ‘contraction budget’. The renewables opportunity is worth trillions of dollars—the biggest market in history. Annex One is the developed World. Gtc: trillions of tonnes of carbon equivalent.

Figure 10.9. Contraction and convergence

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unsustainable: the current rate of increase in damage managing both catastrophic risk and investment, from natural hazards is 12% pa and the rate is climate change will present it with a number of other accelerating. Given that the global sum of such losses business opportunities, and ‘early movers’ might be able was $100bn in 1999 (Munich Re, 2000), it would to gain an advantage. outstrip global GDP (growing at 3% pa) by 2065, if the trends persist.If the insurance industry rallies behind Superior risk knowledge C&C, it not only reduces that risk, but it is well placed Earlier, this study highlighted potential developments in to invest in the future renewables market. In fact one the field of forecasting. It is possible that within five could argue that as the insurance companies own the oil years these may have progressed to the point where they companies (through equity ownership), insurers form become the basis for commercial decisions, eg, on the only industry that has the collateral and the need to reinsurance programme design (attachment levels, adopt the C&C logic. The desired sequence of events is rating, etc). Such forecasts could be used as input to shown in Figure 10.10. more detailed simulation models, already commercially available, but limited by the absence of information Oil depletion/ Climate specific to the period of risk. Because of the cost of price impacts developing such complex techniques, most insurance companies will need to buy this information, but they could still gain an advantage over others through (i) Contraction & convergence better information on exposure, (ii) use of in-house wisdom to supplement the models and (iii) will-power— there will often be strong commercial or political reasons to ignore the advice. Reduced risk to Investment in insurance renewable New insurance markets industry energy Chapter 1 identified a wide range of implications for the insurance industry arising from climate change, apart Figure 10.10. Contraction and convergence from the most obvious one of changes in property and risk damage risk. For instance, political initiatives to deal with global warming will result in a variety of major Who pays ? infrastructure projects, under the heading of As Figure 8.1 (page 71) shows, risk to property from ‘adaptation’—accepting and managing the transition to catastrophic and non-catastrophic events is at present a warmer world—or ‘mitigation’—altering the trend in transferred from the individual property owner (via a climate. Adaptation could involve flood defence, as well policy at a given price) to the primary insurer. In 1998 as water supply, agriculture and construction. Examples the value of revenues flowing through the non-life part of mitigation projects could be afforestation or solar of the global insurance market amounted to $891bn energy. Like any enterprise, these new developments will (Swiss Re, 1999). The primary insurer retains most of require financial services, including insurance, and they this risk on an annual basis, but will off-load some of will present new technical risks to be underwritten. One that risk (for a secondary premium) to a reinsurer. area of risk which UNEP-III considered and rejected was the insurance of liability for default on Kyoto emission However, when climate change impacts on the insurance targets (UNEP-III, 1998b). This rejection was because of industry, it will be the individual who eventually pays the long exposure period, and the fact that the risk was the price of the damage, whether it be through the direct fundamentally a political one. mechanism of increased premiums or failed insurance companies or reduced values of equities on the markets On a more positive note, chapters 8 and 9 noted that the linked to individual savings and pension plans. environment is becoming an important business issue, and this change is filtering into the asset management Other opportunities for insurers world. Already there are a variety of ‘green funds’ for As well as the insurance industry’s involvement in consumers to invest in, and the number can only grow

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as public awareness of global warming improves. opportunities for expansion in the life and pensions markets, it is a moot point whether they will remain Diversification more attractive than the property/casualty market, Besides providing new markets for supplying traditional currently so out of favour. services, climate change is likely to bring about an increase in activity in other industries closely related to Beyond technical issues, the insurance industry should insurance activities, and therefore might open the door take an active part in climate change politics to ensure to diversification. Firstly, as exposures escalate, traditional that the threat of natural disasters is attended to sources of capacity will be exhausted, and thus urgently. This can be done partly by communicating accelerate the move towards alternative risk transfer. with national politicians, but since politicians have to reconcile a wide range of opinions in arriving at a This transition will be reinforced by the redefinition of negotiating stance, it is still imperative for insurers to be ‘insurable risk’ as regards weather sensitivity. Chapters involved in international lobbying through associations 4–7 revealed that customers have an unsatisfied need for like the UNEP Insurance Industry Initiative. protection which is not being met by traditional insurance products, with their emphasis on indemnity. The focus of negotiation is on ‘mitigation’ —limiting We may be on the brink of a renaissance of the product ghg emissions—rather than ‘adaptation’—coping with into a holistic risk-coping service, tailored appropriately the inevitable impacts of climate change as the weather for the various corporate and mass markets. and the sea respond. Funds are to be made available for adaptation through the Global Environmental Fund, Finally, the increasing severity and frequency of natural but there has been little work in the area of natural disasters will create a growth in emergency management/ hazard management. recovery services, which could become a significant separate business, not one simply dependent on insured As argued in chapter 9, the trend to giant, global damage. The tendency for governments to divest public companies brings with it new responsibilities and services could reinforce this. Another interesting avenue stakeholder expectations.Above all, the industry must might be resource management. As insurers grow in show some leadership by coming out in support of the size, the sheer scale of their internal costs will elevate principle of Contraction and Convergence. The Kyoto them into an object worthy of serious management Protocol is purely tactical, and unless more fundamental attention. When allied to the political and public strategies are agreed soon, there is a real possibility that pressure for environmental efficiency, some insurers dangerous levels of climate change could occur. Figure might see an opportunity to create an independent profit 10.11 summarises the comprehensive programme which centre to provide third party services in the field of office is required. and transport management. Conclusions—a proactive response to climate change • Assist research on weather patterns • Identify key hazards The insurance industry will need to make big changes in • Educate property stakeholders its strategies to adapt successfully to climate change. • Co-operate with government/professionals etc. to Ignoring the issue will lead to serious problems and even 1. improve physical risks corporate failure, while recognising the challenge could 2. provide ‘essential’ cover/recovery generate entire new profit-streams. 3. build up reserves 4. control exposure From a societal viewpoint, risk will grow, and this • Develop new products means a greater demand for risk transfer. If the industry • Back renewables against carbon does not supply the products, either someone else will, • Lobby on emission controls leading to a loss of markets, or there will be a painful process of adjustment often at the behest of other parties Figure 10.11. A proactive response to climate with different aims in mind. While there are great change

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CHAPTER 11: ACTION PLAN Research Group

To cope with climate change, corporate bodies and Individuals individuals will need to move the issue up the agenda by • Consciously monitor and learn about climate change regular action. The guiding principle is —seek information on the internet, read articles in the press. INFORMATION—acquire it, use it, share it. • Apply this knowledge in your work The various stakeholders all have interlocking roles for —include climate change/weather variability on the which they must take responsibility, like the players in a checklist of items for each project or process. football team. To carry out their action plan will requir e • Conserve energy directly and indirectly. resources. Allocating these resources means either • Lobby politicians to ensure that climate change demoting other issues, sequestering more funds or receives proper priority. becoming more efficient, and the various bodies • Ask how the companies you invest in are planning to therefore need to remember this aspect, not merely —cope with climate change make pious statements about the desirability of the —help to decelerate global warming. work. Whether sufficient resources are being allocated will become evident to observers seeking timescales for Media the completion of the action plan. • Give the issue regular coverage, both as news and review items. However, the actions should not be viewed as additional • Reflect the overwhelming scientific consensus that burdens which prevent ‘real work’. If they are not there is a discernible human influence on the climate addressed, there will be considerable disruption to system. ‘normal’ activity. Association of British Insurers Government • Continue and extend the programme of research into • Seek international and domestic agreement on the risk management of natural hazards associated climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, in with climate change, particularly flood. particular • Improve communication on these initiatives —advocate ‘contraction & convergence’ —by systematic inclusion in public relations work —set challenging domestic targets for emissions outside the industry reduction —by a coherent strategy of passing information to —seek to provide assistance forless developed members and providing them with opportunities to countries at risk. access scientists. • Implement ‘no regret’ strategies, in particular • Become proactive with other stakeholders on —support the development of renewable energy. insurability issues in high-hazard areas • Provide information to stakeholders on climate —in particular influence local and central change. government on planning control and building design • Consult on climate change strategies. —initiate discussion of the issues with other • Formulate policy and embed it in practical European insurance associations. regulations, procedures and guidelines, in • Address the issue of environmental policy more particular actively (eg, briefings for members). —define an appropriate framework for land • Address the issue of asset management and the development and construction design which will mitigation of climate change (eg, briefings for identify, quantify, and respond to the risk of natural members, dialogue with government on energy and hazards, now and in the future. transport policy).

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Chartered Insurance Institute • Develop products and services to improve society’s • Raise the profile of climate change as an issue with robustness in the face of climate variability and members (eg, journals/conferences/seminars). change (eg, to deal with weather variability, not only • Identify any CIP and ACII syllabuses where climate ‘events’). change might be assessed. • Adopt environmental policies. • Commission further studies on issues related to • Communicate the issues to staff, customers, climate change (eg, economic exclusion, renewable intermediaries and suppliers. energy, alternative risk transfer). • Commission a review of the climate change issue in Enterprises (asset management) 2005, perhaps in conjunction with other professions. • Actively seek to influence the detail of how to implement the UN Framework on Climate Change Enterprises (insurance underwriting) Convention, in particular through support of the • Collect information on exposure and claims to ‘contraction and convergence’ principles. improve the knowledge base for climate change • Develop products and services to improve society’s impact studies robustness in the face of climate variability and —in particular consider adopting common change (eg, support for renewable energy investment). procedures, which will also facilitate claims- • Adopt environmental policies. handling. • Communicate the issues to staff, customers, • Engage with external bodies on regulatory issues in intermediaries and suppliers. support of industry strategies. • Exert pressure as shareholders to ensure other • Address insurability issues responsibly, recognising enterprises take climate change seriously. the needs of different stakeholders.

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151 2001 2001 – A BRE / LPC Publication The Implication of Climate Change for the Insurance Industry – an update and outlook to 2020 Contraction and Sir John Houghton, Chair of adhered to, each year’s Convergence (C&C) the Intergovernmental Panel tranche of this global on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions budget gets shared Professor Tom Spencer, recently told the British out among the nations of the winner of the 1999 European Association for the world in a way which ensures Parliament “Green Ribbon Advancement of Science, that every country converges Award” for his work with global greenhouse emissions on the same allocation per GLOBE International need to be reduced by at inhabitant by, say, 2030, the parliamentarians network, has least 60% in less than a date Sir John suggested. been promoting the concept hundred years. Countries unable to manage of Contraction and within their allocations would, Convergence (C&C), developed by Aubrey Meyer of the Global Commons Institute (GCI). The concept has won support from other influential experts around the world, and has been praised by Michael Meacher, the UK Minister of Environment (see: - www.gci.org.uk ). The concept has been sup- ported by the Royal Commis- sion on Environmental Pollu- tion (RCEP) and the World Disasters Report 2000, pub- lished by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. The aim of the Contraction If governments agree to be and Convergence (C&C) within limits, be able to buy bound by such a target, the initiative is to break the the unused parts of the diminishing amount of carbon North/South deadlock in the allocations of other, more dioxide and the other UN negotiations over the frugal, countries. Kyoto Protocol. The following greenhouse gases that the description is based on an world could release while Sales of unused allocations open letter published in the staying within the target can would give the countries of Independent on the 24th of be calculated for each year in the South the income to December 1999. the coming century. purchase or develop zero- emission ways of meeting Convergence Contraction their needs. The countries of If the IPCC recommended the North would benefit from global reduction scenario was

152 the export markets this Institute (GCI) in 1990, and it 2000) points out, to achieve restructuring would create. is probably the most widely convergence by 2050 would And the whole world would accepted formula for a long imply a reduction of 60% in benefit by the slowing the term strategy to control carbon dioxide emissions, but rate at which damage was greenhouse gas emissions. would bring many benefits in being done. Policy makers in the insurance addition to mitigating climate industry would be wise to change. For example a Relevance to the study the concept and ideas reduction in air pollution Insurance Sector in some detail because would which harms human Kyoto is a good start but insurers would be well placed health and a reduction in the there is a danger that it could to benefit from any effective congestion and pollution degenerate into a market for scheme to limit the growth in caused by rising levels of road trading carbon emissions. greenhouse gas emissions. traffic, are all issues that have There is a need for a long- Not only does the Global an indirect benefit to insurers. term global strategy which is Commons Institute (GCI) fair to all the regions of the scheme have the potential to world and which has a clear limit the likely increases in the reference path to a long term natural disasters from climate stable solution to rising change, the concept of concentrations of greenhouse Contraction and Convergence gas emissions. (C&C) offers the added Contraction and Convergence potential benefits of greater (C&C) seems to be a sensible investment opportunities in framework to proceed: the the clean energy industries. concept first was developed As the Royal Commission on by the Global Commons Environmental Pollution (RCEP

Schumacher Newsletter Global Solution to Climate Change Schumacher Briefing No.5 acceptance of the global ethic “If you read only one book of ‘equity and survival’ and on climate change — its ‘Contraction & Convergence: a the policy framework known past and future, politics and global framework to cope with as ‘Contraction and Conver- solutions - read this one. climate change based on gence’ (C&C). This is the global picture precaution and equity’ was and the key to a global published last autumn amidst C&C is now becoming the solution.” apocalyptic weather. most widely supported global framework within which to Its publication couldn’t have resolve policies and measures Tom Spencer, been more timely as the to avert dangerous climate Professor of Global Gov- reality of climate change change. ernance, University of began to hit public conscious- Surrey and President, ness while relentless floods However, in spite of being GLOBE International and storms swept the UK. endorsed by governments 1994-99 representing the majority of Author, Aubrey Meyer, co- the world’s population, this founder for the Global Com- briefing is the first time C&C mons Institute (GCI) in Lon- has formed the subject of a don, has spent the last dec- book. Aubrey Meyer was co- ade campaigning at the recipient of the Schumacher United Nations negotiations Award 2000. on climate change to win

153 March - New Scientist Give us a plan We know we can beat typify the problem. China is report is the third in recent climate change. Just one not the main generator of weeks from the IPCC’s various thing is missing greenhouse gases. But any working groups. The first two, plan for saving the world’s on the science and impacts of SHI PENGFEI is bemused. His climate must let countries like climate change, courageously country, China, leads the China—which has the world’s explain the risks the world world in installing wind tur- largest coal reserves—get rich runs. This third one fails to bines—a technology UN on other energy sources. How take up the challenge. scientists said this week is do we make it happen? vital for fighting global warm- All is not lost. In September, ing. More than 100,000 farm- Here is one blueprint. First the three IPCC groups will ers run their own wind gen- world governments agree on a complete a “synthesis” report erators in Inner Mongolia. And ceiling for greenhouse gas on their work. They must take Shi, who works for China’s levels in the atmosphere—say, this chance to put things State Power Corporation, twice pre-industrial emissions. right, and spell out clearly wants to harness Mongolia’s Then emissions entitlements how the world should head off winds to power Beijing. There are calculated for every coun- climate catastrophe. Once is World Bank cash, Inner try to ensure we keep below politicians can see the method Mongolia wants to sell, but the ceiling. Setting these and the benefits, they can get Beijing, a city choking on coal targets will depend on govern- back to work. fumes, won’t buy. ments “converging” on a formula based on national Why has the wind gone out of populations. To minimise the industry’s sails? Local disruption, political wrangling overpolluters could has stopped China buy spare permits meeting its national from “underpolluters”. targets for installing turbines. Shi’s Such a system, called problem is mirrored “contraction and in the latest report convergence”, would this week from the Intergov- be fair and economically ernmental Panel on Climate efficient, and create incentives Change (see p 12). for clean energy technologies. Its backers include France’s The report looks at fixes for Jacques Chirac and Britain’s global warming and says that Royal Commission on Environ- “known technological options” mental Pollution. But not the could help the world to pros- IPCC’s policy wonks. Their per while preventing gree summary for policy makers nhouse gas concentrations ignores this eminently sensi- rising higher than twice pre- ble blueprint. The authors, industrial levels. The IPCC fighting shy of saying any- argues that progress in fuel thing “political”, do not even cells and wind turbines has clearly back a ceiling on been far faster than anyone greenhouse gas concentra- imagined. Great news, except tions. that the panel also argues This is madness. Clearly, the that politicians don’t yet know IPCC can’t endorse one blue- how to implement the tech- print. But it should lay out the nologies. options. And contraction and Those Chinese wind turbines convergence is only one. This

154 April - New Scientist Bad move, Mr Bush The alternatives to Kyoto may Finally, it apportions to na- concentrationsEvery American in is the responsible air. be even harder to swallow tions the rights to make those for about 5 tonnes of carbon emissions according to their emissions a year, so this populations. Over 50 years, formula will still cost the US GEORGE BUSH is right about we could cut the global enti- dear. But if Bush is serious one thing: the Kyoto Protocol tlement to perhaps half a about global warming, he is a flawed treaty. But for tonne of carbon per person should be thinking along Europeans looking on in per year—about half what it is these lines. horror as he tries to destroy today. If nations want to emit it, one thing really sticks in more than this, they would the craw. Most of the flaws have to buy permits from were put there by US negotia- countries with emissions to tors trying to make spare. the treaty palatable Most greens have to business. Now, traditionally rejected having made this this formula as too rumpled bed with idealistic. They its mass of compli- preferred the Kyoto cated “flexibility process, in which mechanisms”, they refuse to industrialised countries picked lie in it. a figure and then haggled. But Bush insists that he is not things are different now. And, against action on global oddly enough, contraction and warming—only the Kyoto convergence meets the main formula. So, putting disbelief criticisms that Bush and fellow and frustration to one side, critics make about Kyoto. maybe we can help him. We First, it includes developing wrote here a month ago countries, which get emissions about a plan called “contrac- entitlements like everyone tion and convergence”. It else. Second, it meets most works like this. Initially, the criteria of economic efficiency. world sets a ceiling on the Countries shopping around for maximum acceptable concen- emission permits will make tration of a greenhouse gas. every dollar count. Third, Then it sets out a realistic unlike Kyoto, it is scientifically timetable for keeping global coherent, as it is aimed at emissions below that ceiling. stabilising greenhouse gas

155 April - Parliamentary Monitor PPPolicing PPolicing ollutionollutionollution Aubrey Meyer examines the the supreme test of any to miss precisely because current political thinking on government’s policy and their enormous implications the major environmental performance is whether they are so hard to absorb, let question are acting effectively to re- alone rationalize in policy verse these trends. The test is terms. both national and interna- While discreet events of local TONY BLAIR addressed issues tional. Failing in either dimen- devastation - such as violent of potentially devastating sion means our other efforts storms and flooding - are significance in his recent will be progressively over- costs rather than benefits, in major environment speeches. whelmed by the conse- conditions of overall global For the first time anywhere in quences of this failure. The climate and temperature the industrial world, our prime 0.02 per cent of UK GDP - stability, we understand and minister gave voice to the essentially new money Tony cope with these as parts of dreadful dilemma we now Blair proffered to “kick- start the swings and roundabouts face. self-sustaining markets” in of global “weather” patterns. renewable energy develop- “Climate change is the When, as now however, they ments to deal with this com- greatest threat to our become inexorably fiercer and ing catastrophe - was risible. environment today...if there more frequent with the pass- It implied a degree of some- is one issue that threatens ing of time -because of in- how getting lucky with the global disaster it is the creased heat being trapped in globalization of climate disrup- changes in our the atmosphere by accumulat- tion that is obviously just not atmosphere...we have to ing pollution - this growing on the cards. Getting hurt or face a stark fact, neither we instability constitutes a trend getting seriously organized to here in Britain, nor our into a global climate equilib- prevent this hurt, is all that partners abroad, have rium shift, potentially a runa- counts now. World business succeeded in reversing the way greenhouse effect. leaders meeting a year ago at overall destructive trend. the World Economic Forum in The challenge continues to Davos described the trends as grow and become more Averting this is not an every- already “devastating”, asking, urgent.” In the more recent day policy challenge. And, if “Why had more not been speech he said, “the proc- difficult to accept, it is per- done to avert them?” ess is accelerating. For haps easy to understand why some parts of the world, the political response to particularly the poorer climate change to date has Sadly, based on the latest been so far short of what is parts, the effects will be summary of the IPCC policy catastrophic.” really needed. For example group, the impression given is the sub-global proposals Drawing on the latest data that there is no certainty that passionately championedby now available from the Inter- averting them is possible at John Prescott in the Kyoto governmental Panel on Cli- all. This reflects the views of a Protocol - to semi-randomly mate Change IPCC) science largely outdated and myopic pursue policies and measures group (reflected in the group of economists that to limit, reduce and also trade graphics alongside), he ac- absurdly prioritizes the pursuit pollution entitlements knowledged that the trends of of economic growth ahead of amongst the industrial coun- global climate changes - due the global environmental tries only - are correctly to the human pollution behind security on which this so understood as inadequate and global temperature rise - are obviously depends. It also merely a first-step. now worsening towards reflects, however, the alarm- potentially catastrophic ing properties of the devastat- However hope for even this outcomes. ing trends themselves. It can inadequate first-step to be be-said that these are possible taken appears now to have Inexorably, and from now on,

156 been crushed by the refusal of should be done through the lenge made easier if the the new US President, George formal procedures of “Con- global emissions gas emis- Bush, to submit any version of traction and Convergence” sions from the global entitle- this Protocol to the US Senate explained in their exemplary ments created by C&C are for ratification. The world’s report from the June last year, assumed to be readable. And largest polluter reminded us Energy - the Changing Cli- whatever way we do it, the all that in June 1 997 the mate. problem is by definition based Senate had voted unani- on the a prior need for a If we are to stabilize rising mously for the so-called Byrd- “pre”- distribution of entitle- global temperature, we are Hagel Resolution that insists ments, (as you can not trade going to have to rapidly on emissions reduction, or at what you do not own) and stabilize the upward accelera- least limitation commitments, tradability makes possible an tion of greenhouse gas con- being undertaken by all coun- “accelerated” rate of conver- centrations in the atmos- tries - not just the industrial gence with potentially much phere. According to the RCEP, countries. Intriguingly no more generous entitlements, and many others, this in turn clues were given as to how and therefore revenues, means that we must effect a these would actually be quan- accruing to those countries global contraction of emis- tified. than would otherwise be the sions of greenhouse gases by case. Moreover much of the While Bush’s move may really 60 to 80 per cent from human long-standing global eco- betray his overriding loyalty to sources. This must be nomic dysfunction such as the the fossil fuel industry what- achieved internationally debt crisis could be addressed ever the environmental cost, a through a global transition - this way. This is a more hon- reason cited for his refusal or convergence - to develop est approach than indulging was that it would have ex- goals based upon per capita the view that a long game empted developing countries calculations. The problem is works in their favour. from such emissions control. cumulative. This means, At the same time, in response simply but devastatingly, that The graphics alongside give to this refusal, a recent CNN the atmosphere retains at an overview of this new poll in the US showed that least half of any year’s emis- battleground of the rates of two thirds of its citizens sions semi-permanently. change. It was in this context believed that Bush should Consequently, contracting that the insurance industry come up with a plan to save emissions only slows the made media headlines at the the climate. Once again no upward rise of their concen- UN climate negotiations last clues were given as to what trations in the atmosphere. November with their stark this might be. Thus it can be argued that projection of damages. Fossil unless we become organized fuel consumption had aver- This would however appear to soon in a global programme aged two per cent growth a be asking for a plan that that is committed to this end, year since the end-of the war. shows how developing coun- we might As well not bother During this period, while the tries can integrate their contri- to try and solve the problem GDP dependent on this energy bution into the global effort to at all as we may just remain expenditure had averaged control emissions needed to caught in the randomness of three per cent growth a year, prevent a runaway green- partial, and effectively, sym- the damages from the climate house effect. And to avert this bolic emissions control while change related disasters does require committing the problem continues to caused had been rising at 10 globally to a rate of imple- accelerate to the point of per cent a year. Unless, they menting the solution that is becoming insoluble altogether. said, the dependency of this faster than the rate at which economic growth on fossil fuel we are collectively creating As the developing coun- burning was now fundamen- the problem. Our own Royal tries accurately say that they tally broken, the damages (or Commission on Environmental did not precipitate and will not wealth destruction measured Pollution (RCEP), joined prosper in this growing cli- as uninsured losses) will recently by the liberal Demo- mate crisis, the diplomacy overtake gross wealth-crea- crats, has forcefully advocated required to sell such a global tion in real terms within the to government how this programme will be a chal-

157 next 65 years. This, the no precedent – except per- insurance industry pointed haps nationally in wartime. out, is obviously unsustainable Averting devastating global and joined the RCEP in the climate change is going to he advocacy of the global “Con- like fighting a hundred years’ traction and Convergence” war. Unless the total notion procedures - an example of and process of governance is which is portrayed in the reconfigured to the over-riding bottom graphic. purpose of winning this war, While Mr. Blair has yet to Mr. Blair’s strong words will respond to this advice from gradually become a self- the RCEP, Michael Meacher fulfilling prophecy. did recently instruct his nego- tiators in the IPCC policy forum to promote C&C in the Aubrey Meyer is the Direc- summary output from the tor of the Global Commons group. Institute and author of Contraction and Conver- Ludicrously, considering their gence – the Global Solu- recent contribution, the tion to Climate Change. Americans blocked this at the Graphics are reproduced key meeting. with the kind Permission In the big picture we all have of Green Books. real cause for concern as there is little mainstream ‘discourse at this time uphold- ing the notion that we will have curbed and stabilized the upward rise of global tem- perature within less than 100 years from now. To do this would require nearly complete removal of greenhouse gas emissions from the global economy within the next 50 years. Noting the exceptional contributions of Amory Lovins, of the Rocky Mountain Insti- tute and Greenpeace, few have argued for this and been seriously listened to so far. Yet not to argue for this suggests that we will all lose in the battle of rates of change. It is these comparisons that are at the heart of the “devas- tating trends” of climate change. To do enough to avert the trends requires now a globally coordinated rate of the organized transfor- mation of human behaviour and development techniques on a scale for which there is

158 May - Ecologist Contraction and Convergence the global solution to climate change So can Armageddon be the US and the world onto a We are capitalists,’ is the averted? Yes: if we stop no-carbon economy. revelation of Martyn Turner listening to environmentalists, and Brian O’Connell on page Fair enough, you might think. and start talking the language one of ‘The Whole World’s But here things start going a of capitalism, say Turner and Watching’. But Aubrey Meyer little weird. ‘Windmills... are O’Connell. Greens are great at can match that. ‘I’ve never impractical, uneconomic and diagnosing problems, but been anything other than a environmentally unfriendly. when it comes to proposing musician,’ he declares at the They may produce no green- solutions - forget it. And don’t start of ‘Contraction and house gases, but the saving worry either about the whole Convergence’. Two new represented is so minimal that messy Kyoto Protocol busi- books; two proposed solu- it barely merits mention.’ ness, because the US isn’t tions to humankind’s greatest Huh? ‘Biomass is a classic ever challenge. Both claim example of a good idea to be founded not on gone horribly wrong.’ environmentalists’ fantasies Hello? ‘Solar power is the but on harsh realities. stuff of romantic books and Which one has the answer? fairy tales.’ Hang on a minute. If renewable Both books start from the energy sources are going premise that global warm- to be so thoroughly dis- ing is real, and that it is missed, how are we ever already happening. ‘I am going to reduce carbon not being alarmist,’ says dioxide emissions? You Meyer. ‘[But in] the worst guessed it - we’re back to case scenario, the survival nuclear power. Read on of all but a tiny minority of with mounting dismay as the human race comes into Turner and O’Connell go on question.’ This is not simply to point out that Chernobyl because of the increasing and Three Mile Island amounts of CO , methane 2 weren’t nearly as bad as and other greenhouse we all thought and that gases that humans are still nuclear waste, ‘if stored pumping into the atmosphere, playing ball. ‘The possibility is properly, does not pose any but because the earth’s not realistic, even if snow danger to mankind.’ natural regulating systems are became a distant memory in themselves in danger of being Alaska and the state of After voicing such shrill com- knocked out of kilter. In a Florida became an underwa- plaints about the subsidies at recent model, the UK-based ter theme park.’ With the last going into wind power, it Hadley Centre found that Democrat and Republican seems a little cheeky for the warming temperatures would parties representing ideolo- authors to plump for nuclear - kill tropical rainforests in gies which are essentially the surely the most bloatedly Brazil - turning vast swathes same, even a total global subsidised industry of all of Amazonia into desert and meltdown won’t convince time. And after condemning grassland, and pouring still Americans to get out of their renewables as unproven and more carbon into the atmos- sports utility vehicles and take uneconomic, it seems even phere. Several more ‘positive to their bikes. So there’s only more surprising that the book feedbacks’ threaten to have one option left - to harness finally touts some new just as much of a catastrophic the power of technology, ‘pocket’ South African reactor effect. industry and finance to shift for large-scale power genera-

159 tion and far-off fuel cell per-capita fair share must recognising these countries’ technology for cars as herald- reduce their emissions, whilst per capita emission rights, ing the long-awaited green those which emit too little are and even allowing them to panacea. Controversial? allowed an increase. That’s acquire a tradeable market Definitely. Thought-provok- ‘convergence’. In a world value, Contraction and Con- ing? Absolutely. But maybe where 4 per cent of the vergence establishes an Turner and O’Connell, who world’s population, in the US, incentive for clean develop- are both financial analysts, are able to emit 25 per cent ment. (There is a legitimate should stick to what they do of its CO2, this brings the argument about whether this best - figuring out the rather concept of equity - fairness, kind of emissions trading can tedious intricacies of a global basically - to the fore. be conducted fairly or carbon trading market. whether it could end up For many, equity is a moral representing ‘carbon colonial- Thank God, therefore, for standpoint. But it also acts at ism’, but we won’t go into it Aubrey Meyer. ‘Contraction the level of realpolitik -bring- here.) and Convergence’ was never ing into the climate process the most catchy title (imag- those heavily-populated In short, these books both ine-it on a banner: ‘Contrac- countries like India and China present us with a choice. Is tion and Convergence -now!’), which are planning to dra- tackling climate change so but hidden within this short matically increase their fossil urgent that we should use all book is a proposal which fuel consumption in the near means at our disposal, even could and should alter the future. Remember: even if ones that promote corporate course of history. In its essen- the Kyoto cuts are imple- power? Or can the global tial principles, it’s really very mented in full (which they warming crisis not be solved simple. The Earth’s biosphere won’t be), world carbon anyway, except through the only has the carrying capacity emissions are set to increase establishment of a fairer and to absorb a certain amount of anyway by some 30 per cent, more ecological society? We carbon per year - and humans mainly because of the ‘devel- can’t all duck this thorny have to cut their emissions to oping’ world. Why, runs the question forever. And both a safe level within it. That’s argument, should these books are a valuable contribu- ‘contraction’. Within this countries deny themselves tion to the debate. carbon ‘budget’, every human electricity, heat and transport Mark Lynas being on the planet has an simply to support the profli- equal right to the use of the gate consumption of rich atmosphere, so countries Europeans, Australians and which emit more than their Americans? In contrast, by

May - Prospect Fresh AirAirFresh BY ALEX EVANS US should have pulled out. It international climate scene as is that a credible alternative "contraction and convergence" The policy framework "con- policy framework exists that (C&C) was developed ten traction and convergence" can encompass the apparently years ago by the Global offers President Bush a way to incompatible demands made Commons Institute, a tiny save face and the planet by the EU, US, developing British organisation with world and others; and yet the virtually no resources that was AMIDST THE PANIC and media and the environment set up (and is still run) by recrimination over President NGOs have been almost silent Aubrey Meyer, a professional Bush's decision to withdraw about it. violinist and composer. Unlike any other option on the from the Kyoto Protocol, the The concept, known on the startling fact is not that the agenda, C&C meets US de-

160 mands for developing country on emissions, trading would Right question; wrong answer. participation, developing not undermine the environ- A cap on emissions, such as world equity concerns, private mental integrity of the sys- those accepted by the devel- sector needs for flexibility and tem. oped world at Kyoto is, by efficiency, and (most impor- definition, also a property The political implications of tantly) EU and NGO calls for a right-and one that can be C&C in the current situation framework with environmental traded. The EU, in committing are enormous. The US Admin- integrity. to reduce its emissions to 8 istration has made clear that it per cent below 1990 levels by The logic of C&C is simple and takes climate change seriously 2010, has acquired a trade- transparent, in contrast to the and that its opposition is not able right to pollute up to that extravagant complexity so to precautionary action per se, level. What Kyoto in effect did typical of Kyoto. The "contrac- but to the Kyoto Protocol in was to initiate a form of tion" refers to a global emis- particular. This is due largely atmospheric enclosure: the sions reduction trajectory for to long-standing US demands privatisation of the climate, specific greenhouse gases. that developing countries with property rights accruing The trajectory could be modi- accept emissions limitation solely to the richest, highest fied at any time in line with commitments, not least in the per capita emitters. The the emergence of new data. famous 1997 Senate Resolu- developing world, vastly more tion (passed 95-0) that de- The next question is how to energy efficient in per capita creed that the US would not allocate the emissions avail- terms than the north, is on ratify any climate treaty that able under this trajectory, and the verge of missing out on did not include developing this is the "convergence" part: an unprecedented windfall. national emissions entitle- Therefore, rather than oppos- ments are deliberately de- ing US calls for their participa- signed to converge by an tion, developing countries agreed date at equal per should be rushing to con- capita emission entitlements gratulate President Bush on for all countries, so that his offer of a share of the emissions allowances are then climate cake. For the end proportional to population. point of Bush's stance is Crucially, C&C also allows for unavoidable: if developing full emissions trading between countries are to have atmos- countries: so if the US wishes pheric allocations, the only to, it can purchase credits logical, transparent and fair from, say India, as long as countries. basis for emissions entitle- India is willing to sell them. ments is equal per capita However, both EU and devel- This allows for the efficiency emission rights. It was only oping country governments that the private sector de- just possible to agree differen- have made clear that there is mands in order to be able to tiated commitments for 38 no question of fully global meet climate change abate- countries at Kyoto, and as commitments until developed ment in the lowest cost man- recent events have shown, countries have "taken a lead," ner available. C&C would yield even this deal may yet un- as enshrined in the 1992 significant cashflows to the ravel. With 180 or more Climate Convention: rich developing world from the countries participating, one countries have far higher per sale of spare emissions, but straightforward rule for alloca- capita emissions and a greater would also give them an tions will be needed if nego- share of historical culpability incentive to invest some of tiations are not to sink back for climate change. Why, after this income into additional into a morass of complexity all, should developing coun- energy efficiency projects, and horse-trading. tries be forced to pay the since this would allow them to price of a problem that is not Yet C&C offers massive advan- sell still more emissions. And, of their making-especially tages to the US as well. since all trading would take when they are heavily bur- Economic efficiency, President place beneath the global cap dened in other ways? Bush's top priority, is provided

161 for in that full emissions recent months. The frame- strategically flawed reasons, trading would be allowed. work has been backed by the international arms of C&C would allow Bush to governments as diverse as organisations such as Green- defer domestic emissions those of France (Jacques peace, the WWF and the reduction for two full presi- Chirac proposed the frame- World Resources Institute dential terms through pur- work as the ultimate objective took a decision in the late chasing developing world in the Hague), India, Sweden, 1980s and early 1990s to emission quotas, if needed; Belgium, the Africa Group and push for the principle of the net environmental integ- the Non-Aligned Movement. It developed countries "taking a rity and emissions contraction is supported by John lead"; even now, they can be of the global framework would Houghton, head of the science seen defending this tena- remain. working group on the UN ciously. Perhaps these organi- Intergovernmental Panel on sations were unable to com- Above all, environmental Climate Change, by Raul pute the dramatic implications integrity, the main concern of Estrada-Oyuela (chair of the of allocating property rights to EU governments, is ensured Kyoto talks), and by Jan Pronk the atmosphere, and conse- by the presence of the (chair of the Hague talks). In quently tried to defer the overarching global cap on Britain, too, C&C is advancing issue; yet, as Kyoto shows, emissions, which would taper up the agenda rapidly. It was there is no way around the downwards over time to aim put forward as the best inter- question of how to allocate at a specific, safe concentra- national climate framework by these entitlements. Like it or tion of C02 in the atmosphere. the Royal Commission on not, Kyoto is a rights-based This factor, more than any Environmental Pollution in its framework and one that other, is the key strength of report on climate change last confers no rights at all on C&C. No one in the climate year and advocated recently developing countries. debate has yet come up with by Liberal Democrat leader a way of solving the problem In walking on eggshells Charles Kennedy. Perhaps faster than it is being created. around the question of atmos- most interestingly, C&C now It is essential to start with the pheric rights for developing has the backing of the insur- question not of "what reduc- countries, with all of the ance industry, waking up at tions are countries prepared implications that this has for last to the potential of climate to offer?" but of "what level of northern consumption, south- change to sink it altogether. In atmospheric C02 concentra- ern equity and the future of a report on climate change tion is safe, and what is the the climate, we have ended published earlier this year, the path to get there?" EU gov- up with a fudge that suits no Chartered Insurance Institute ernments and mainstream one. (the largest professional body environment NGOs are mak- for insurers in the world), Alex Evans ing an appalling tactical error argued that "above all, the The Global Commons in attacking the US for being industry must show some Institute website is at "unfair" or "immoral." Such leadership by coming out in http://www.gci.org.uk attacks on the US are doomed sup-port of the principle of to failure since rebutting them C&C," adding for good meas- confers upon Bush a positive ure that "as the insurance advantage with climate hawks companies own the oil compa- in Congress and industry. nies (through equity stakes), Instead, the world should insurers form the only indus- respond to Bush's withdrawal try that has the collateral and from the protocol by pushing need to adopt the C&C logic." the US to take a position on developing world participa- As to why C&C has remained tion, and then playing the the best kept secret in inter- debate on purely logical national climate change, the grounds. responsibility lies in no small part with mainstream environ- The outlook for C&C has ment NGOs. For forgivable but improved dramatically in

162 May - Resurgence A Thousand Loopholes

ALEX EVANS Concerns about equity raised about the principles that by India and others at the end underpin the process will Although the Climate of the Kyoto talks were de- simply not work. rided by the US, which ac- Change talks at The Hague There is widespread agree- cused the developing world of collapsed, there are signs ment on what the constituent risking the best deal that was that an alternative pro- elements and drivers of the available at the talks. A deal posal is gaining support. debate are. They are precau- at The Hague would have tion, equity, efficiency and MANY environmentalists must disadvantaged poor countries prosperity. Precaution in that be shaking their heads in still further: the Clean Devel- something needs to be done, bewilderment after the col- opment Mechanism would and fast: a cap on global lapse of the climate talks in have allowed rich countries emissions is required, and a The Hague and asking them- free rein to pick the so-called shift towards a carbon-free selves what they are expected “low hanging fruit” — the economy. Equity because of to do next about global warm- cheapest emission-saving the still unanswered question ing. projects — thus denying of developing nations’ role in developing countries the The UN’s Intergovernmental action as well as their even opportunity to make these Panel on Climate Change, due more urgent need for reduc- cheap savings themselves to present its Third Assess- tions by the big emitters. when the time came for them ment Report in June 2001, Efficiency in the need for to adopt their own commit- has revised upwards its esti- markets to be involved in the ments. mates of temperature change solution, together with all of over the next century, from 1- The Hague talks were any the questions about emis- 3.5 degrees Celsius to 1.5-6 case a wholly inadequate sions-trading and so on that degrees. response to the problem. With the term implies. And prosper- There have been the floods, in its global target of a 5.2 ity in that all countries are the UK, Italy, Thailand, Malay- reduction from 1990 emission keen to maintain and improve sia, Australia and elsewhere — levels by 2010, it falls hope- their standards of living as far even before we recall Mozam- lessly short of the 60 reduc- as possible under the new bique. The financial commu- tion called for by the UN’s regime. But, although all nity is waking up to the scale international panel of scientific agree on these four elements, of the problem: a director of experts. Defenders of the the fundamental problem with one of the world’s six largest Protocol reply that, whilst they the Kyoto Protocol as it stands insurance companies, CGNU, acknowledge that it is not in is that it has these priorities said in The Hague that on itself sufficient (even before the wrong way around. Pros- present trends insurance “loophole accounting”), it is perity is being put before damages would exceed the necessary to maintain mo- Precaution, and Efficiency gross domestic product of the mentum in the process. before Equity. There are only two possible outcomes: bad entire world by 2065. And still What is clear from the failure deal or no deal. no deal. of The Hague talks is that it Just what went wrong? will not be possible to move THERE IS, HOWEVER, an forward on climate change alternative approach that Environmentalists, at least, unless we institute a proper made significant advances in are in no doubt about what constitutional framework for The Hague and may yet happened: the US, Canada, the process. The lesson to emerge as the constitutional Japan and Australia tried to draw from The Hague is that framework that the Kyoto kill the treaty through a death focussing on intricate minutiae process so badly needs. It is of a thousand loopholes. before there is agreement an idea known in the interna-

163 tional climate change game as demanded by the US Senate; for paying the rich countries’ “contraction and convergence” but developing countries can “carbon debt” to the develop- and was developed ten years support the system since it ing world. ago by a UK-based organiza- puts them on an equal footing The final element of the tion called the Global Com- with other countries. equation, prosperity, enters mons Institute. Crucially, the framework also the picture in that a contrac- Although the approach was in allows for full emissions- tion and convergence struc- the past regarded as Utopian trading between parties: so if ture would enable the market by some, it has been sup- the US wishes to, it can pur- to have transparent conditions ported by many authorities chase credits from (say) India, in which to anticipate and including the last chair of the as long as India is willing to work towards future develop- UN Intergovernmental Panel sell them. This allows for the ment of alternative energy on Climate Change, Sir John efficiency that companies sources. The sheer Houghton; the UK Royal demand in order to be able to unpredictability of global Commission on Environmental meet climate change abate- climate change policy has Pollution; and the govern- ment in the least-cost manner meant that demand for re- ments of many developing available. Of course, deep newable energy is still not countries including China and Greens have long been scepti- high enough for renewables to India. Now, with the endorse- cal of emissions-trading. They be able to compete with ment of the concept by argue that it would privatize fossil-fuel sources. Prosperity Jacques Chirac at The Hague the global climate commons in under contraction and conver- talks, it looks as though a modern version of enclosure gence is thus prosperity by Contraction and Convergence of common land. other means: the lockstep may shift from idea to deal. between economic growth These concerns are well- and fossilfuel consumption is The Contraction refers to a founded, especially in the light broken, so that the economy global cap which would be set of the emissions-trading can at last be built on sustain- on world-wide emissions, system proposed under the able foundations. together with an overall Kyoto Protocol, and it is to the reduction trajectory for the credit of deep Greens that Contraction and Convergence century ahead. This trajectory they put these issues on the does not offer a total solution. could be modified at any time map in The Hague. However, Countries would still need to in line with new data emerg- these concerns would be met decide the rate of contraction ing from scientists. The sys- by a system of equal per and the date of convergence, tem thus regards precaution capita entitlements to the and the approach does not as the highest priority. atmosphere. This is not only offer a panacea for the ques- equitable — and in this sense tion of sinks. What it would The next question is therefore the antithesis of colonialism — provide, though, is the consti- how to allocate the emissions but also heralds the way to a tutional framework and level available under this cap, and new global market which playing field that has been so this is the Convergence part: would facilitate huge transfers sorely lacking from the Kyoto emissions entitlements con- of wealth from the developed process so far. It would meet verge over time towards equal to the developing world as US concerns about the partici- per capita emission rights for rich countries buy up develop- pation of developing countries all countries, so that emis- ing countries’ spare emissions. and access to emissions- sions allowances are propor- At the same time, since the trading without compromising tional to population. This is overall global emissions cap developing nation demands the only logical and fair way would remain, this trading for equity and transparent to proceed, and these terms would not compromise the frameworks. Above all, it are also the only ones that environmental integrity of the would provide a structure in allow the gulf between the US system. which the world could agree a position and that of develop- trajectory of global emissions ing countries to be bridged. Action would be taken to save reduction and a clear path There is meaningful participa- the climate whilst simultane- towards a carbon-free tion by developing nations, as ously setting up a mechanism economy.

164 Contraction and Convergence equity and environmental gives the world a chance to protection. back out of the mess that it Alex Evans works with the has created on international Global Commons Insti- climate change policy. It is tute. time politicians and Greens alike took the initiative and argued for a return to the original 1992 UN Climate Change Convention goals of

June 2001 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Contraction and Convergence” – A Policy Briefing on Climate Change to the UNEP Financial Institutions.

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

165 June - RRJune esurgence Climate Negotiations

James Bruges sees the including the US, to partici- and we should cut emissions immense potential in pate, whether or not they had as quickly as possible. Contraction and Conver- taken part in the negotiations. Equity must be the guiding gence. Contraction & Convergence principle for agreement on separates principles from all how reductions will be made. Aubrey Meyer the confusing detail into which The carbon cycle was in the 1997 Kyoto protocol has balance before human inter- Schumacher Briefings, sunk. It establishes rules by vention. All land areas were Green Books, Totnes, which the game should be net emitters of carbon dioxide played, rather than calling for and only the oceans were net arbitrary deals. Meyer de- absorbers. What has changed THE WILFUL destruction, with clares, passionately, that we is the increase in emissions foreknowledge, of entire are dealing with nothing less since the start of the Indus- countries and cultures rep- than the survival of humanity. trial Revolution. It is only resents an unspeakable crime And he insists that the order- these emissions that are against humanity.” The Presi- ing of human affairs must be relevant to the negotiations. dent of Nauru said this as he based on equity. When think- contemplated the obliteration If we set on one side the ing about the negotiations of his Pacific island state due damage already done by and the clarity Meyer brings to rising sea levels. Climate countries that have grown to them, I find it helpful to change is serious, and poor rich bringing us to the present use the image of a tree — its nations are suffering dispro- crisis, a huge concession to trunk formed of core princi- portionately. ask of poor nations, the only ples from which the branching fair approach to rationing the Withdrawal of the United discussions grow. There are future use of fossil fuel is States from the Kyoto process bound to be arguments over through equity — an equal- need not prevent govern- detail but these are twigs and per-capita allocation (based ments representing the vast leaves that should not harm on 1990 population Figures). majority of the world’s popula- the main structure. Meyer’s Negotiations that do not take tion from implementing poli- core principles, the trunk, are everyone into account on the cies that address the crisis. survival and equity. basis of equal rights are like a Aubrey Meyer, of the Global For survival, greenhouse gas tree with a rotten heart — Commons Institute, describes emissions must reduce (con- doomed to collapse. an equitable framework that is traction). But how quickly? The first branch is that con- inclusive of all countries, The Economist magazine vergence from unequal use to called Contraction & Conver- takes a relaxed view that “it is equal-per-capita allocations gence. It was widely dis- a hundred-year problem” so will take time — industrial cussed and well received at don’t do anything to upset the economies could not survive a the November 2000 negotia- economy just yet. The Royal sudden massive reduction in tions in The Hague. Building Commission on Environmental their use of oil and gas. So a on Meyer’s Contraction & Pollution, in its report dated convergence period will be Convergence framework, the June 2000, says that the necessary. Thirty years has economist Richard Douthwaite concentration of carbon been suggested but it may is now proposing an economic dioxide in the atmosphere is need to be much less. framework to keep human approaching the highest it has activity within the environ- ever been in forty million A second branch: it will be mental limits of the planet. years so we cannot predict virtually impossible for some Once these two frameworks what will follow; in other societies to reduce their have been implemented by words, concentrations are emissions adequately, the majority nations, it would already too high to be safe whereas others are at present be in the interests of others, within their allocation. So

166 allocations should be traded, independent of national fund to encourage carbon but only if the total of all currencies, but the United sequestration. emissions is within the reduc- States overruled him. The Contraction & Convergence ing target. Each country Majority Nations should now allows the Kyoto protocol to would be issued with Stand- establish an international be taken forward; it meets ard Emission Rights (SERs) currency for trade across the reasonable US require- coupons by the International boundaries. ment that all nations should Monetary Fund (IMF) for this A fourth branch (which relates be involved; and it supersedes purpose. Industrial nations to monetary reform): ad- the protocol’s arbitrary alloca- will want to cut their emis- equate reductions will not be tions that favour historically sions as quickly as possible in achieved unless the monetary high polluters. order to reduce the number of system rewards those who coupons they need to buy If the policy is linked to mon- reduce their emissions. In from those with coupons to etary reform, it will be in the 1944 currencies were based spare. Poor nations will want interest of all nations, includ- on gold. to reduce the growth in their ing the US, to participate. The gold standard was subse- use of fossil fuel so that they Contraction & Convergence quently abandoned in 1971 so have coupons to sell. addresses the two great currencies are now free- China, India and most African issues of our time — climate floating and unstable, a highly countries endorsed the policy change and inequality. It unsatisfactory situation. The of equal-per-capita allocation would provide the incentive new international currency at The Hague. President for all nations to reduce should be linked to carbon, or Chirac specifically stated that emissions. the emission of carbon. It this is France’s goal. The would be issued in proportion And it would result in a pro- Royal Commission on Environ- to standard emission rights. gressive tendency towards mental Pollution has said “the Douthwaite calls it the ‘emis- equality between nations, UK should be prepared to sions based currency unit’ thus relieving poverty, encour- accept the contraction and (ebcu). aging trade and removing convergence principle as the many causes for conflict. A fifth branch: developing basis for international agree- Hopefully it will be nations should take the initia- ment.” If world affairs were centrestage at Bonn. democratic, this would now tive (and Europe would prob- be an adopted policy. ably join in). They have great James Bruges is author power — most of the world’s of The Little Earth Book Some commentators accept commodity resource is located (Alastair Sawday Publish- the logic of equal-per-capita in them, India does most of ing, £4.99) (see review in allocations but question America’s accountancy over- this issue). whether the US will ever sign night, and these nations could an agreement based on drag the rest of the world into equity — it is only commercial climate chaos if they adopted incentive that will bring the our coal and oil technologies. US on board. The majority But they also have the incen- nations should recognize this tive to make changes — as a fact of life and change emissions-trading would the financial architecture of cause money to flow to them the world. This sounds ambi- from rich nations as of right tious but it is just a question not as aid, and monetary of revisiting the Bretton reform would enable them to Woods agreement. use the dollars sitting idly in So the third branch is about their banks. monetary reform. At the 1944 An export tax, levied in pro- Bretton Woods conference, portion to the amount a John Maynard Keynes argued country exceeds its emissions for an international currency, allocation, would establish a

167 June - The Guardian Emissions that count If the Kyoto agreement col- to see the treaty unravel. It rightwing president Silvio lapses, which thanks to Bush, negotiated as a unit and Berlusconi, or pull all the looks increasingly likely, a 3rd agreed an overall EU target cut strings it can with friends such way has emerged that may yet of about 7%, using a complex as Britain, whose diplomatic save the planet. process known as "the bub- loyalties in this case are ble", whereby different coun- stretched between Europe and In less than five weeks, coun- tries agreed to different levels the US. tries will reconvene in Bonn to of commitment. Portugal, for thrash out the Kyoto treaty, If Kyoto collapses, the options example, is allowed an in- which aims to reduce global for addressing climate change crease in emissions, whilst the warming emissions by an are limited. It would take years UK agreed to cuts of 12.5% average of 5.2% on 1990 to piece together another and Germany to cuts of around levels by 2012. It looks bad. treaty of the same complexity 21%. If the Kyoto process George Bush has returned to and many countries would balk were reopened, it could prove Washington more than ever at the idea of going through it difficult, perhaps impossible, to convinced that it is unwork- all again. But hovering in the ever put back together. The able, unrealistic and against wings is a proposal, known to gaps between the two sides American interests. be acceptable to almost every- are now greater than even six one in the de veloping world The US argues that because months ago. Indeed, there is a and increasingly by the devel- there has been such a tremen- growing acceptance that both oped countries. It would seem dous growth in its economy not only agree to disagree, but to resolve almost all US objec- since 1990, the treaty as it that nothing is immediately tions to the Kyoto agreement, stands would require a 25- resolveable. and has the advantage of 30% reduction in US green- If this is the case, then Bonn being demonstrably fair, prag- house gas emissions and that could become a global anti matic and politically neutral. this in turn would mean a 1- Americana-fest. If other coun- 2% reduction in US GDP by "Contraction and Convergence" tries can agree on the precise 2010 - comparable, the US (C&C), dreamed up by the mechanism of how to achieve argues, to the oil shocks of the small Global Commons Insti- their commitments and then 1970s. The US also insists that tute in London, is based on sign up to Kyoto, with the US the Kyoto targets are unrealis- two principles: that global reduced to observers, then the tic and that many countries emissions of greenhouse US would become a pariah are unlikely to meet them. It warming gases must be pro- state. The popular theory goes believes the treaty to be gressively reduced and that that it would then, perhaps fundamentally flawed because global governance must be under a new president in it excludes developing coun- based on justice and fairness. 2005, be forced to join. But tries - 80% of the world, Rather than look at emissions this is by no means certain, including China and India - on a country by country basis, and is diplomatically unaccept- whose emissions will inevitably C&C proposes reducing emis- able. grow as they develop. sions on a per capita basis. It is far more likely that the On the other side there is It means agreeing internation- whole Kyoto agreement will fall Europe, which agrees that the ally how rapidly greenhouse apart before it is ever ratified treaty is flawed, but argues gas emissions should contract by 55 countries, so ensuring a that it has taken 10 years of each year and then allocating stalemate and taking the long and complex negotiations permits to emit them to all blame away from the US. This just to get to this point and countries on the basis of their could happen in any number of the chance of addressing a populations. The permits would ways. The US has a long phenomenon which potentially be tradeable, so that those history of twisting arms and threatens all life on earth must countries which could not making deals. It might try to not be lost. Europe has prag- manage within their allocations isolate countries such as Italy, matic reasons for not wanting could buy extra ones from most vulnerable under those with a surplus. It would

168 strengthen the global British royal commission on make a late surge to the top economy and address many environmental pollution has of the climate talks agenda, of the concerns of the WTO, advised the government to but it shows that there are the IMF and the World Bank press for an approach like ways beyond the present by channelling money to poor this, and many developing impasse and that there could countries not as aid but as a countries, including China and be a creative basis for long- right. Its simplicity and its India and the Africa group, term cooperation between potential is appealing and it have voiced support. Insurers countries. has powerful supporters, and MPs from various coun- including Svend Auken, the tries, even US senators, have Danish environment minister, publicly shown enthusiasm. his counterpart Jan Pronk in Even Tony Blair said the C&C Holland, Michael Meacher in approach "merits full consid- Britain, Jacques Chirac and eration". Klaus Topfer of the UN envi- It is unlikely that C&C will ronment department. The

July 7 - New Scientist Calling the tune With the Kyoto Protocol Mendes, the assassinated You developed the for- on the verge of collapse, Brazilian rainforest cam- mula called contraction the search is on for a paigner. I began to explore and convergence. What is formula to get us off the rainforest politics and was that? hook of global warming. overwhelmed by a sense of At the early conferences on One of the main contend- tragedy. I could not under- fighting climate change I saw ers is a proposal by a stand why anyone would want this hideous charade being professional violinist with to murder a butterfly collector. played out in which the poli- no scientific training. Soon afterwards I joined the tics was divorced from the Aubrey Meyer has en- Green Party, where four of us science. The UN’s Intergov- tranced scientists and formed the Global Commons ernmental Panel on Climate enraged economists and Institute in London to fight to Change said we needed a 60 many environmentalists protect the planet’s shared per cent cut in emissions of with his idea, but it is resources—the forests, the greenhouse gases to halt winning high-profile back- atmosphere and so on. We global warming. But the ers, such as China and the scraped together money from politicians had no plan even to European Parliament. He supporters, and I’ve never stabilise emissions, let alone says it embraces science, stopped since. cut them. So I did some logic, fairness, even art. simple calculations. To do Could it yet save the Did you have any back- what the IPCC wanted meant world? Fred Pearce gets to ground in science? reducing global emissions to the bottom of it I didn’t have any background an average 0.4 tonnes of in maths or science. My only carbon per person per year. How did a musician get real contact with numeracy That was the contraction part. into the high politics of until GCI got going was the It seemed to me that the only global warming? kind of kinetic numeracy of politically possible way of I had been a practising musi- music, its structure, and the achieving that was to work cian and composer for 20 discipline which goes with towards national entitlements years. In 1988, I wanted to that. based on size of population. write a musical about Chico Today, some nations are

169 emitting 20 times more per musicians, mathematicians, contained in that. But the head than others. The US, for scientists, it was, frankly, truth is that the rich are as example, emits 5.2 tonnes per beautiful. I took 300 of these vulnerable as the poor to head, Britain 2.6 tonnes, India graphs to a climate meeting climate change. So while the 0.2 tonnes. This means that and put them outside the fairness of contraction and India could double its emis- conference door. They went in convergence is a powerful sions while the US would have 30 seconds. I think contrac- argument, I personally don’t to come down by more than tion and convergence cuts to think it is the key. The 90 per cent. That is the con- the chase. It flushes all the stronger argument is the vergence part. Clearly no politicians out of their hidey- purely logical one. It doesn’t country is going to be able to holes. solve all our problems at a make those changes immedi- stroke, but it creates the ately, but the beauty of the Why did it take a musician framework in which we can system is that it allows them rather than scientists to solve them. If people disa- to trade in emissions permits. come up with it? gree, then the challenge for them is to think of something Many scientists have taken to Other people, like Anil better. it, but perhaps it needed a Agarwal, the Indian envi- musician to produce it. Maybe ronmentalist, had similar Presumably, the big envi- the idea is not intellectual in ideas at that time. Why ronmental groups em- the usual scientific sense. It did yours stick? braced the idea. has rules but it is also active, Yes, Anil had got very angry and it embraces creativity. It Far from it. Many have re- when some leading American has harmony, rhythm and fused to talk to us or even environmentalists tried to form. And it embeds an acknowledge our existence. suggest that India, which has ethic—of equity and survival. one of the world’s lowest per We musicians spend a lot of How come? capita emissions, was one of time on repetition and varia- the leading causes of global tion. I kept taking variants of I think they took a judgement warming because of its large these graphics to UN climate at the start of the climate population. But the case meetings. debate that the enormity of against such crazy views what we faced was so devas- tating that you couldn’t spring wasn’t getting anywhere—we But it sounds rather ideal- it on ordinary people all at needed a new language. I had istic. It may be a fair once. And they didn’t want to become fascinated with the carve-up of the atmos- frighten the politicians with graphics capabilities of com- phere, but the world grand strategies. They puters as I saw them as the doesn’t really work fairly, thought contraction and visual equivalent of musical does it? communication, a universal convergence would do that. language. So at GCI we Initially, fairness was just Instead, they called for sharp produced large colour graph- what we were pushing for. I cuts in the emissions of devel- ics showing how countries remember quizzing a woman oped countries only. It may could converge towards equal economist at the World Bank have been politically correct, per capita emissions while on her cost-benefit analysis of but the approach was random bringing overall emissions cutting greenhouse gas emis- and timid. down by 60 per cent. You sions. I pointed out that small could argue about the rate of island states like the Maldives Greenpeace, timid? the contraction and conver- would almost certainly disap- Yes. They were part of this gence, of course—whether it pear under her plan. She said: timid approach. They avoided should take 20 or 50 years— “What’s all the fuss about facing the global dimension of but basically we had synthe- small island states? They will the problem. It was tokenism. sised the whole problem and just be compensated; and we the whole solution onto a can send lifeboats.” She had single graphic no sense of the depth of But broadly that was the (www.gci.org.uk). For disregard for real people route taken by the Kyoto

170 Protocol. So the timid like President George W. China, the non-aligned move- approach worked, didn’t Bush? ment, many African nations, it? the Red Cross, Britain’s Royal Bush acknowledges the prob- Commission on Environmental Well, I’d say that the timid lem is real and serious and Pollution and Jacques Chirac approach is why we are in the like everyone else he has to have all said they support the mess we are in today. The US face this. Kyoto is probably idea in principle. Many econo- has ripped it up. better than the chaos that is mists say they have no real now on the cards, but the quarrel with it, provided it odds for getting this deal are You have annoyed the allows countries to trade their dwindling. Anyway, as I see it, economists, too. emissions entitlements. If the the protocol is Plan A. At best, They annoyed me. The analy- revenues from trade are spent sis produced by the main- stream economists suggested that this problem was insolu- ble; that it was too expensive to save the planet. This is because their work conceals daft and immoral assumptions not only about the expend- ability of natural resources but also of human beings. Climate change is not an economic problem. It is an organisa- tional problem to do with protecting the real atmos- phere, the only one we have. It is not good enough for them to just nod at the scien- tists and say: “Thank you, now we’ll tell you how the world works.”

What response do you get from scientists? They really do make an effort to remain calm and neutral in their judgement. Many see that contraction and conver- gence tries to mirror that objectivity by attempting to respond directly to what on renewable energy, it will it will moderate increases in scientists say is the situation. bring the efficiency gains that emissions a bit—until 2012. But many identify with us in a the economists are so keen So, regardless of what hap- moral as well as a logical on. And it will allow the poor- pens to it, there has to be a sense. They are also human est countries with the low Plan B. The real question is beings. They have children emissions to sell their spare whether contraction and and think about the future. entitlements for profit. convergence follows on from the protocol or picks up the Politically, your ideas have pieces when it falls apart. What about the US gov- not got far yet. By criticis- ernment? ing the Kyoto Protocol, Who backs it today? Some senators already sup- have you played into the port it. It is the only practical hands of its opponents, The European Parliament,

171 proposal that does what very interested when I said I controlling emissions they they’ve asked for, namely was going to Beijing. They could get paid to convert their simultaneous emissions con- said: “You’d better watch your economies to run without trols on all countries. It pro- back because you’re gonna be fossil fuels. motes economic efficiency watched.” I got quite nervous. through emissions trading and I’m not a diplomat, I’m just a So your formula meets the enables progressive American musician. But the idea is not needs of both the US and firms to get involved and leftist, or even rightist. The the developing world? make money. That’s certainly morality you can take or what I would tell George W. leave, but the logic is inescap- Yes. It’s a framework for the Bush. able. retreat from our dependency on fossil fuels. The way I see it, the world starts a race to That makes you sound like But don’t developing get out of carbon ather than a an arch-capitalist, rather countries have the right to race to get into it. than the communist you tell the rich countries that have sometimes been they created the problem Fred Pearce labelled. How come the and should solve it? Chinese like it? So far, most developing coun- False dichotomy. The Chinese tries have indeed united came on board, at least around that message. That tentatively, when they realised may be morally valid, but it is I was talking about distribut- a disastrous strategy for them ing emissions rights. They as well as for the rich world. liked the idea of equal rights The carrot for them in adopt- rather than equal restrictions. ing contraction and conver- But this is high politics. The gence, apart from saving the US Energy Department got climate, is that in return for

July - The Guardian Blueprint to avert global disaster Larry Elliott into supporting the protocol, politicians in Genoa this even though it has been weekend may have to face up In one respect, Tony Blair is rejected as fundamentally to one uncomfortable truth: like every British prime minis- flawed by the new Bush whatever is cobbled together ter since Churchill - he be- administration. in Bonn, Kyoto is dead. lieves in a unique bond be- tween Downing Street and the Despite complaints from the It is true that the United White House. The existence of rest of the world that the US States is responsible for 25% the so-called special relation- will be held responsible if the of global emissions with only ship is much disputed, but continued build-up of green- 4% of the world’s population. one thing is certain; if London house gases causes irrepara- It is true that the developed does exert any influence in ble damage to the global world (not just the US) has a Washington then next week- environment, the strategy has moral duty to sort out the end will be the time to wield two big drawbacks. The problem it has created. But it it. Americans are unlikely to is a fantasy to believe that the budge and there’s no plan B. Bush administration is going Today in Bonn talks begin that to change its mind on Kyoto. are designed to keep alive the Actually, that’s not quite true. Kyoto agreement on cutting There is but for it to have a Only when it is accepted that greenhouse gases. Plan A is chance of succeeding the the Americans are not going to browbeat the Americans

172 to roll over will the way be time to time. But even if the new supporters all the time, cleared for some new think- optimists are right, the conse- including Michael Meacher, ing. quences will be so dire if they the environment minister. are wrong that it is worth Better alternative Contentious issue adopting a precautionary The desperate attempts to approach. Insurance compa- So how would it work? Au- hold Kyoto together with nies certainly think so. brey Meyer, founder of the sticking plaster are under- Global Commons Institute The US government has standable because the feeling says the plan has three dis- never sought to deny that is that the alternative to Kyoto tinct phases. climate change is a problem, is no deal at all. But the simply that Kyoto is the First, governments get to- alternative is better and wrong way of dealing with it. gether and, on the basis of possible, given political will. In particular, Washington has the best scientific advice, Blair is well placed to provide argued that a global problem decide how much further the the sort of leadership that is needs a global solution, which level of CO2 in the atmos- now required. He knows from means including countries in phere can be allowed to rise the Labour party’s experience the developing world, too. before the environmental that the moment of total, damage becomes too great. Fortunately, a blueprint exists dismal failure is the moment Given the lack of scientific which not only answers the when new ideas have their unanimity, this is certain to be US objections to Kyoto but greatest potency. He likes a contentious issue, but it offers a coherent strategy for thinking “outside the box” and need not be insuperable. cutting greenhouse gases. is good in negotia- Once the overall tions at seeing the big limit has been picture. agreed, Meyer Blair also knows the says the next step environment is the is to use an esti- big challenge facing mate of the pro- today’s global leaders. portion of the gas As he once said: released which is retained in the “If there is one atmosphere to issue that threatens determine the global disaster it is speed at which the changes in our emissions have to atmosphere ... we be cut in order to have to face a stark hit the target. fact, neither we here in Britain, nor Finally, once we our partners know by what abroad, have percentage emis- succeeded in reversing the The plan, known as contrac- sions have to be reduced, overall destructive trend. tion and convergence, is there has to be agreement on The challenge continues to simpler than Kyoto’s Byzan- how to allocate the fossil fuel grow and become more tine complexity, offers a way consumption that lead to urgent.” of getting the Americans to those emissions. There are, of course, those come on board, has built-in In his pamphlet (Contraction who argue strongly that flexibility, and a market & Convergence; Green Books, climate change caused by mechanism built into it. £5), Meyer argues that the CO2 emissions is a myth, and Although C&C was the brain- correct and fair approach that the increase in global child of green activists, the would be to enshrine the right temperature over recent irony is that it would be good to emit carbon dioxide as a decades is simply a natural for business. It is hardly human right “that should be phenomenon that occurs from surprising that it is winning allocated on an equal basis to

173 all of humankind”. considerable boost to the and for developing countries development of sophisticated to come off the sidelines; it Clearly, this would be far environmental technologies in means facing up to the fact more attractive to countries the north, which could be as that Kyoto is a barely twitch- that are consuming smaller important to capitalist devel- ing corpse. C&C, in other quantities of fossil fuels per opment in the first half of the words, is no magic bullet. head (poor countries) than 21st century as was oil in the those that have relied on the But crude anti-Americanism is first half of the 20th. burning of fossil fuels to grow not either; it is the equivalent their economies (rich coun- Considerable thought has of firing blanks, since it plays tries). been given to the C&C pro- into the hands of those in posal. The economist, Richard Washington who want to One solution would be for Douthwaite, has developed defend the status quo and over-consuming countries to the idea of a new currency, drowns out the voices of be allowed an adjustment the emissions-backed cur- deeply concerned US citizens period - of say 25 years - to rency unit, which would who recognise that there is a reduce their emissions to the operate rather like a green problem and want their gov- convergence level. In addi- Gold Standard. Ebcus would ernment to be part of the tion, those countries that be used for trading in green- solution. were unable to live within house gas emissions permits, their allocation would be able This is not the time for the and if the price of permits to buy extra permits from blame game but for some started to rise the interna- those countries which were fresh thinking. tional body responsible for more efficient in the use of policing the system would sell fossil fuels. more permits and then with- This would have a number of draw the currency perma- benefits. It would lead to a nently from circulation, flow of funds from rich to thereby limiting further dam- poor countries that would not age to the environment. be contingent on the willing- Are there any objections? You ness of creditor nations to bet. The plan relies on the sanction debt relief; it would fact that politicians can focus encourage those countries in beyond the next election; it the south to run their econo- requires a willingness for us mies in energy-frugal ways, in rich northern countries, so that they continued to consumers as well as produc- have pollution permits to sell; ers, to change our lifestyle finally, it would provide a

174 February 28 - BBC online Climate panel urged to ‘get real’real’get

By environment corre- both environmental and below the level where they spondent Alex Kirby economic”. intensify global warming. A damaging row is threaten- It says policymakers should ing to envelop a panel of be ready for “possible revision French support United Nations experts of the scientific insights into The advocates of contraction charged with recommending the risks of climate change”. and convergence include most the best ways of softening the The draft says: “Climate of the European Union’s impact of climate change. change decision-making is environment ministers, the essentially a sequential proc- The panel starts work on 28 European Parliament, and the February in Accra, UK’s Royal Commis- Ghana, to finalise its sion on Environ- report to govern- “None of us would want mental Pollution. ments. The report will the IPCC reports or their sum- It was given a be the third issued in significant boost at 2001 by the Intergov- maries to be ridiculed for being vague or evasive on this point the climate confer- ernmental Panel on ence last November Climate Change in this increasingly critical cli- in the Dutch capital, (IPCC). mate” The Hague, when Its two earlier reports Aubrey Meyer, GCI President Jacques this year said unam- Chirac of France biguously that there spelt out his support was greater scientific for it. confidence that the ess under uncertainty . . . it Now, Aubrey Meyer, the world was warming, that should consider appropriate director of the GCI, has writ- human activities were at least hedging” until there is agree- ten to Bert Metz, who co- partly responsible, and that ment on the level at which chairs the IPCC group meeting the consequences would be greenhouse gas emissions in Accra, urging him to include serious. should be stabilised. a recommendation of C&C in But this third report, by con- But the panel’s apparent the policy-makers’ summary trast, by the IPCC’s working unwillingness - or inability - to which the meeting will issue. group three, looks likely to be as forthright as the authors Mr Meyer writes: “Failing this, dwell instead on the remain- of the two earlier reports has a residual character of ran- ing uncertainties surrounding been attacked by a UK-based domness and drift in the climate change, and on the group, the Global Commons summary will continue to consequent difficulty of choos- Institute. This argues for a dissipate the process that the ing suitable mitigation poli- policy of “contraction and IPCC exists to inform. None of cies. convergence” (C&C) as the us would want the IPCC Unwillingness or inability? fairest way to tackle climate reports or their summaries to change. be ridiculed for being vague or A copy of the draft which the evasive on this point in this Accra meeting will be seeking C&C insists, in essence, that increasingly critical climate. to finalise was passed to BBC everyone in the world, from News Online. It urges “a rich and poor countries alike, “Such an outcome is irre- prudent risk management has an equal right to emit sponsible, unnecessary and strategy” and “careful consid- greenhouse gases, but that dangerous.” eration of the consequences, total emissions should be kept

175 Dissenters’ view He told BBC News Online: “I hope contraction and conver- Support for the GCI stance gence will find some part in has come from an influential working group three’s report. climatologist, Sir John I think these ideas are impor- Houghton. Sir John is a tant because of their logic, former head of the UK Met. and because of their appeal Office, and now co-chairs the on grounds of principle. C&C IPCC’s working group one, the does actually address three team which last month said it distinct principles: that we was more confident that should take a precautionary global warming was happen- approach, that the polluter ing, and that average tem- should pay, and that we must peratures might rise twice as be concerned with equity. fast by 2100 as had been thought. “Because it addresses these, C&C needs to be taken very seriously.” However, there are also those observers who will want the scepticism that has crept into the IPCC’s working group three draft to be maintained. Those scientists who doubt the global warming hypoth- esis, and humankind’s part in it, were delighted to see what they regarded as some real- ism enter the thinking of the Global ice cover is diminish- UN body. ing, but are humans really to blame?

176 July 17 - Guardian How to rule the world Rich nations should stop and that they would preserve fear. running the planet and and strengthen the anti- Writing in the Guardian last give way to global democ- ballistic-missile treaty. week, Philippe Legrain, a racy One man is replaced and all is former World Trade Organisa- lost. tion official, argued that world George Monbiot elections to a world parlia- Similar problems delegitimise ment are not realistic. “Sixty The leaders of the free world almost every global body. The million Britons would not present a glowing example to World Bank and IMF, which accept 1,300m Chinese out- the rest of the planet. apportion votes according to voting them.” the money they receive, are Of the eight men meeting in Mr Legrain has, unintention- Genoa this week, one seized governed by the countries in which they don’t operate. ally, presented the anti- the presidency of his country globalisation movement with after losing the election. The five permanent members its central challenge. of the United Nations security Another is pursuing a geno- If those of us in the rich world cidal war in an annexed council, charged with main- taining world peace, also who are protesting against the republic. A third is facing inordinate powers of the G8, allegations of corruption. A happen to be the world’s five principal arms traders. the World Bank or the WTO fourth, the summit’s host, has are serious about overthrow- been convicted of illegal ing unaccountable party financing, bribery power, then we must rise and false accounting, to his bait. while his righthand man “Indeed, the only fair and is on trial for consorting lasting means of reducing CO2 - In 1937, George Orwell with the mafia. namely “contraction and conver- observed that “every gence”, which means working out revolutionary opinion Needless to say, the how much pollution the planet draws part of its major theme of this can take, then allocating an strength from a secret week’s summit is “pro- conviction that nothing moting democracy”. equal pollution quota to everyone on Earth - would surely be im- can be changed”. Bour- geois socialists, he But were the G8 na- possible to implement without a tions governed by charged, were prepared world parliament.” angels, they would still to demand the death of be incapable of promot- capitalism and the ing global democracy. destruction of the British These eight hungry men The UN general assembly empire only because they represent just 13% of the represents governments knew that these things were world’s population. rather than people: a poor unlikely to happen. They were all elected to nation of 900m swings, in “For, apart from any other pursue domestic imperatives: practice, less weight than a consideration, the high stand- their global role is simply a rich nation of 50m. ard of life we enjoy in England byproduct of their national The G8 leaders know that the depends upon keeping a tight mandate. The decisions they “global democracy” they are hold on the Empire - in order make are haphazard and due to discuss is a sham, and that England may live in ephemeral. they will do all they can to comparative comfort, a hun- dred million Indians must live Last year, for example, the G8 keep it that way. on the verge of starvation - an leaders announced that they There is, we are told by evil state of affairs, but you were determined to achieve almost everyone, no alterna- acquiesce in it every time you the goals of the Kyoto proto- tive to the rule of finance and step into a taxi or eat a plate col limiting climate change

177 of strawberries and cream.” ment, be sovereign. All other soared. Indeed, the only fair global bodies would report to and lasting means of reducing The middle-class socialist, he it and act on its instructions. CO2 (namely “contraction and insisted, “is perfectly ready to convergence”, which means accept the products of Empire The UN, WTO and other working out how much pollu- and to save his soul by sneer- bodies, if they survived at all, tion the planet can take, then ing at the people who hold would be reduced to the allocating an equal pollution the Empire together”. status of the parliament’s civil quota to everyone on Earth) service. But, as the World Since then, empires have would surely be impossible to Citizen Foundation has waxed and waned, but that implement without a world pointed out, to preserve local basic economic formula holds parliament. democracy its scope must be true: we in the rich world live limited by subsidiarity. The very existence of a global in comparative comfort only assembly could help to resolve because of the inordinate It could not interfere in strictly disputes: people often take up power our governments wield, national decision-making, in arms only because they have and the inordinate wealth other words, but would seek no other means of being which flows from that power. to do only what existing global heard. I suspect, too, that the bodies are attempting - and We acquiesce in this system World Bank and IMF, whose failing - to do today: resolving every time we buy salad from role is to police the debtors on disputes, tackling global a supermarket (grown with behalf of the creditor nations, poverty, defending people water stolen from Kenyan would disappear almost from oppression and protect- nomads) or step into a plane immediately. ing the world’s resources. to the climate talks in Bonn. A democratic assembly would But it’s not hard to see how a Accepting the need for global almost certainly replace them world parliament could bypass democracy means accepting with something like Keynes’s and undermine dictatorships. the loss of our own nations’ “International Clearing Union”, Just as proportional represen- power to ensure that the which would force creditors as tation in European elections world is run for our benefit. well as debtors to eliminate has encouraged us to start third world debt and improve Are we ready for this, or is questioning our own, flawed the balance of trade. there lurking still some re- system, genuine global de- sidual fear of the yellow peril, mocracy would highlight But the democratisation which an age-old, long- imprinted democratic deficits all over the may or may not result in such urge towards paternalism? world. changes cannot even be widely discussed until we, the Global democracy is meaning- The danger, of course, is that new world order’s prosperous less unless ultimate power the world parliament might dissidents, are prepared to resides in a directly elected make decisions we don’t like take our arguments to their assembly. This means, of very much. We may discover logical conclusion, and let go course, that a resident of that people living in the of the power our nations Kensington would have no world’s most populous nations possess and the dispropor- greater influence than a don’t want to tackle global tionate wealth which flows resident of Kinshasa. warming or to control nuclear from it. The Ethiopians would have weapons. But danger is what the same number of repre- democracy is all about. I hope that we, unlike Orwell’s bourgeois socialists, are ready sentatives as the British (and And it’s hard, in truth, to for this challenge. If not, we rather more as their popula- imagine a people’s assembly may as well as cancel our tion increases). The people of making a worse fist of these tickets to Genoa and stay at China would, collectively, be issues than the G8 and the home eating strawberries and 22 times as powerful as the warmongers of the security cream. people of the United Kingdom. council. In a truly democratic world, China has curbed its carbon [email protected] the people’s assembly would, dioxide emissions while en- unlike the European parlia- ergy use in the US has

178 179 July 23 - E-Finacne News Universities Superannuation Scheme An article in E-financial could enable us as institutions news, quotes Colin to assess and manage more Maltby, head of invest- effectively the risks to our ments at BP pension fund investment portfolios.” as saying: “The authors of the USS (Universities Superannuation This article in eFinanceNews at: - http:// Scheme) Climate Report) have www.efinancialnews.com/ put forward a framework that story.cfm?passedref=17000000000016517&xsection=16

July 26 - Guardian LettersLettersLetters Martin Quick writes: - converge to a per-capita amount that can be sustained “While Japan and some other by the atmosphere’s carrying countries may be criticised for capacity is such a framework. weakening the Kyoto agree- The Russian “surplus” would ments, to criticise countries then be rapidly eroded.” for being reluctant to face fines for non-compliance with Martin Quick, Stroud, Glos, their targets (Leaders, July [email protected] 24) seems unreasonable while the biggest polluter of all, the http://www.guardian.co.uk/ US, is outside the agreement. letters/story/ Unless some means of charg- 0,3604,527366,00.html ing the US for additional damage to the environment caused by its opting out of the agreement is devised, the US will have an unfair advantage. The agreement to allow emissions trading while Russia has huge surpluses of “reduc- tions” to sell, will lead to a low price per ton of carbon traded, discouraging the introduction of renewable energy and energy efficiency measures. Trading will only become fair when national targets are set in a rational way. The principle of “contract and converge”, as proposed by the Global Com- mons Institute, where all countries’ emissions quotas

180 August 2 - Commonwealth Human Ecology Council Journal Why Contraction & Convergence is The Framework to Solve Global Climate ChangeChangeChange

Alex Evans and Aubrey traction & Convergence” The concept (C&C) - a proposal advocated Meyer Under C&C, all countries in the past by the govern- would collectively agree an ments of China, India, the Introduction annually reviewable target for Africa Group, France, Belgium, a stable atmospheric concen- In spite of the deal on the Sweden, and the Non-Aligned tration of carbon dioxide in Kyoto Protocol in Bonn, a Movement; by Climate Net- the atmosphere, and then long-term global solution for work Africa (a network of work out the rate at which climate change appears African NGOs), UN Environ- emissions must contract in almost as far away as ever. ment Programme CEO Klaus How can US demands for participation by developing countries and full use of market mechanisms like emissions trading be recon- ciled with the South’s de- mands for equitable treatment – and with assurance of making the necessary reduc- tions in emissions? Developing countries argue that they have minimal histori- cal emissions compared to the North, still have much lower per capita emissions, stand to lose out most from climate change, and above all that developed countries should order to reach it. The need Topfer, the science chair of “take a lead” in tackling the for a specific concentration the IPCC, Sir John Houghton, problem. target to be set is absolutely the UK-based Chartered critical, as the UN Climate In the background, mean- Insurance Institute, the Euro- Secretariat’s Executive Secre- while, climate change itself pean Parliament, and most EU tary, Michael Zammit Cutajar, grows steadily worse, still with environment ministers. C&C made clear in a recent inter- no approach in evidence that has also been supported by view. Without a clear global can solve the problem faster the Red Cross, Jubilee Plus trajectory towards a specific than it is being created. (the successor organisation to level of CO in the atmos- Climate change is truly the the Jubilee 2000 developing 2 phere, action taken to address Gordian knot of our times. Is world debt relief campaign) climate change is no more there any ray of sunlight and most recently the Climate than a spin of the roulette amidst all the dark clouds? Action Network federation of wheel in a climate casino. Yes, says the London-based NGOs, which called in its Global Commons Institute publication “Eco” for a C&C Lack of certainty about the (GCI), which has developed a approach. precise safe level of atmos- policy framework called “Con- pheric concentrations is no

181 reason for delaying action – countries with spare emissions conceded explicitly in a recent on the contrary, it makes to sell. television interview). action more urgent, and As President Bush and other requires C&C’s stipulation of Why it would work leaders are discovering, the an annual scientific review of logical endpoint of his Admin- the concentration target. Beneath the US policy reversal on Kyoto and the outraged istration’s position on climate Once the concentration target reaction from all quarters to change is Contraction & and the resulting “contraction this announcement, a more Convergence. It is the only curve” have been defined, the significant shift has taken framework there is that can next question becomes how place across the Atlantic. fulfill the need for stabilization to share out the slices of this President Bush has accepted of atmospheric greenhouse carbon “cake”. Under C&C, that climate change is real, gas concentrations whilst the allocations would con- and called for an approach encompassing at the same verge by a specific date (such consistent with stabilizing time Northern demands for as 2030) from current shares atmospheric concentrations. flexibility and Southern de- of emissions – broadly propor- More than this, he has called mands for equitable treat- tional to GDP - to allowances for a return to the first princi- ment. Since developing countries have much lower per capita emissions than the developed world, convergence at equal per capita emission rights would allow developing coun- tries to sell their surplus emissions to the developed world at a profit. (This would not compromise the environ- mental integrity of the sys- tem, unlike the Kyoto system of emissions trading with its “hot air” since all trading would take place beneath the one overarching global “con- traction curve” and one stand- ard allocation formula.) This trading would also help to establish clean technolo- proportional instead to na- ples of the 1992 Climate gies, especially in the South. tional population. Convention – precaution and The South would have a clear This approach is based on the equity. incentive to reinvest the realisation that one logical The US has recognised that a proceeds of its permit sales and equitable allocation global problem needs a global into zero emissions technolo- formula will be needed in solution, which by definition gies, since this would allow it order to distribute entitle- means including all countries. to continue to sell permits; ments between more than At the same time, President whilst businesses would 180 countries if negotiations Bush has also acknowledged benefit from a long-term are not to sink once more into that there are no military framework that would allow a morass of horse-trading. solutions to climate change. them to plan effectively their Full international emissions This means that a co-opera- capital investment in clean trading would be possible tive approach is needed, technology, which would under C&C, so that countries which in turn requires that all become a vast growth sector. unable to meet their targets countries recognize the policy framework as equitable (as could purchase permits from What about Kyoto? Secretary of State Colin Powell

182 Kyoto, for all that it represents time when the scale of emis- 1. Climate change will a first step of sorts, is neither sions reductions needed definitely get worse unless we science-based nor equitable. globally may mean that they address it now; Its emissions quotas are the have no surplus to sell, even 2. A global problem needs result of political haggling with immediate per capita a global solution, and devel- rather than any obvious convergence. oping countries must be correlation with the cuts being Developing countries would involved; called for by the Intergovern- face enormous pressure in mental Panel on Climate 3. Any workable solution such a situation, and even risk Change, and even these have must therefore treat all parties being perversely blamed for been watered down through fairly or it will stand no climate change if they stayed concessions made at the last chance of being agreed upon out. This would be despite climate summit in Bonn. globally. An even more funda- C&C is the only way mental mistake en- forward in this situa- shrined in Kyoto was The ‘UN Observer & In- tion. By specifying a the principle of devel- ternational Review’ called it the date for convergence oped countries “taking seminal book on climate policy. at equal per capita a lead” in tackling emission entitlements, climate change. Wor- Jonathon Loh from Conservation it gives a clear assur- thy though the principle Policy WWF International says it ance of equitable sounds, it does not is, “brilliant and reads like a treatment and creates a virtuous circle in work in Southern novel. The policy analysis is of interests. which Southern coun- course as sharp as ever (and) tries benefit from an First, it excludes devel- the analysis of how the climate income flow with a oping countries from clear incentive to the pre-allocation of a negotiations leading up to and invest the proceeds in new asset – tradeable beyond Kyoto went off track is clean technology. atmospheric property spot on.” rights – worth trillions It is now necessary It is available from Green Books of dollars annually. that the world learns This means that devel- price £5: - http:// the hard lessons of the oping countries are www.greenbooks.co.uk/cac/ Kyoto Protocol. First, it being excluded from an cacorder.htm will in future be essen- opportunity to profit tial to start not with from their far lower per the question of “what capita emissions, even reductions do countries the fact that in such a situa- as the UK (a far higher per think they can afford?”, but tion, the North would be capita emitter than most “what is a safe atmospheric doing precisely what it had Southern nations) stands to concentration of CO2, and always said it would not do – make billions of dollars from what is the path to get ‘pulling the ladder up after it’, the emissions it saved by there?”. Second, a constitu- with no space for developing switching to gas rather than tional framework is needed to countries to develop or for coal-fired power generation. reduce the morass of com- consensus to be achievable. plexity and horse-trading that Secondly, there is no escaping The only alternative to this so typified Kyoto. C&C re- the fact that all nations will at political nightmare is to con- duces negotiations down to a some point have to be in- duct the climate change manageable two variables: cluded in global binding debate openly and honestly what is the rate of contrac- targets. The risk for the from this moment on. This tion, and what is the date of South is that in the future, means that all countries, and convergence? worsening climate disasters especially those in the North, will lead to urgent demands As the world moves towards must be very clear about for their participation – at a Earth Summit 2002 and the three basic truths: Commonwealth Heads of

183 Government Meeting in Bris- will change this. Johannes- GCI’s website is at http:// bane in October, attention will burg must be used to agree a www.gci.org.uk. once more focus on the long-term, equitable global interconnections between framework to solve climate Aubrey Meyer is the Direc- equity and sustainability. This change. For as EU environ- tor of the GCI. His email is not equity for its own sake, ment Commissioner Margot address is based on purely moral Wallstrom recently observed, [email protected] He is grounds. It is equity for the while countries can negotiate the author of “Contraction very pragmatic and down-to- with each other, they cannot and Convergence – the earth reason that a framework negotiate with the weather. Global Solution to Climate that is inequitable will not be Change”. agreed by all countries. No Alex Evans is the director amount of rhetoric, worthy of communications of the sentiment, aid programmes of Global Commons Institute a few million dollars or (GCI). His email address communiqués from the OECD is [email protected].

August 23 - Al-AhramAhramAhram The Heat is on Scientists are conjuring may mean. worrying predictions veered fire and brimstone, but into view. Fear of the unknown is a where does the science powerful thing, and it is this end and the paranoia terrible uncertainty that has begin? Nyier Abdou traces driven the global interchange the panic over global on one of the more elusive warming issues of our time: climate In the last couple of years, it change. Were it not for con- Flirting has increasingly seemed like servationists’ and environmen- the apocalypse is nearing: talists’ ability to paint global hurricanes, floods, earth- warming as a common foe it quakes and volcanoes wreak would have been near impos- An increase in so-called havoc with greater frequency. sible to put climate change on greenhouse gases could spur In November 1998, Hurricane the international agenda. But a runaway “greenhouse Mitch took some 10,000 lives with world leaders pulled into effect,” warming the earth in in Central America and deadly the debate, politics has driven ways ecosystems cannot cope earthquakes have ravaged the the science, rather than the with. Increased levels of globe. Turkey, India, Ven- other way around. The results greenhouse gases like carbon ezuela and Taiwan are just have been both edifying and dioxide (CO2), methane, some of the countries that discontenting. nitrous oxide combined with have suffered catastrophic chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), The landmark 1992 Earth earthquakes in the last two which eat away at the earth’s Summit, in Rio de Janeiro, years resulting in significant protective ozone layer, are the Brazil, was the birthplace of loss of life. Flooding, from the product of the industrial age. the UN Framework Convention Mississippi to the Yangtze, Concentrations of these gases on Climate Change (UNFCCC), from England’s Yorkshire, to allow sunlight through, but signed by 153 nations swept Africa’s Mozambique, has keep some of the subsequent up by the call to keep the drawn a chilling picture of radiation emmitted by the earth a liveable place. Govern- what reports on rising sea earth in. The greenhouse ments sounded the alarm levels and melting ice caps effect is what makes life as about global warming and

184 we know it possible on the devastating Typhoon year on record. planet, but it is a delicate Toraji earlier this month; Warmer weather year round balance. The burning of fossil Greenpeace protesters at might seem a bonus for cooler fuels like coal, oil and natural the climate talks in Bonn climates, but when you con- gas — our main energy The UN Inter-governmental sider that this would also sources — increases the build Panel on Climate Change allow insects and rodents to up of greenhouse gases in the (IPCC), set up to monitor survive the winters and multi- atmosphere. Models based on policy development and ply, you can begin to imagine the current rate of green- produce an informed body of mosquito-borne diseases like house gas emissions (GGEs) knowledge on the slippery malaria infiltrating countries portend global warming topic of global warming, has like England and Canada. running out of control. repeatedly issued dire predic- Countries already suffering Because emissions do not tions of accelerated heating of the drying of lands, like the distribute themselves evenly, the atmosphere and the countries of southern Africa, they are denser in some could become uninhabitable. areas, forcing warmer China is already losing thou- weather patterns. The differ- sands of square kilometres of ence in temperature then cultivated lands and creates turbulence in the marshlands each year to atmosphere. The basics of desiccation. Meanwhile, the global warming are straight- erosion of coastal areas and forward: more GGEs mean natural barriers would leave more trapped heat, which coastal populations open to means more violent weather possible repercussions we storm surges. No country is patterns. Warmer overall face: severer weather ex- immune: the United States — temperatures means the tremes, lengthened periods of the world’s largest producer of melting of polar ice caps, drought in some areas and GGEs — has been reluctant to glaciers and permafrost. Ice increased rainfall in others. A implement emissions reducing traps CO2, but once melted, report on climate change policies, but scientists have more CO2 is released into the released in February by an warned that the country’s air, in a vicious cycle. The IPCC working group warns eastern and western warming of surface waters that we can expect more seaboards would be hard hit. causes the seas to expand, “freak” weather conditions Manhattan could become encroaching on coastal cities and pointed to strong evi- Atlantis. and possibly sinking small dence for human culpability. island nations. It has been widely noted that the 20th century was the hottest stretching back a millennium, and numerous reports, including a joint US Department of Energy and UK with Natural Environmental Re- search Council study issued in May of 1999, and a London The greatest impact will beset Imperial College study com- the developing world, particu- disaster: changing paring satellite data from larly in densely populated weather patterns have around the globe released in coastal areas (Egypt is one of been blamed for nature’s March of this year, claim the countries the IPCC thinks increased wrath. from strong evidence that the is in danger). Already, more top) Flooding in Mozam- warming trend will continue. people are dying of natural bique last year; at the eye The World Meteorological disasters (the world’s largest of a hurricane; searching Organisation (WMO) tagged re-insurance company, Munich for survivors of Taiwan’s 2000 as the fifth warmest Re, says that its figures indi-

185 cate a three-fold increase in earthquakes, volcanoes and scientific data are quite an- natural disasters in the last other such phenomena are other. Herein lies the heart of quarter century) and, of not connected to global the debate about climate course, more people are warming. Rather, increased change. pushed into disaster-prone awareness, coinciding with Since the Rio Earth Summit, areas by economic hardship. A heavy coverage of the climate worst-case scenarios issued University College in London change issue, has brought the by the IPCC and other scien- study estimates that a stag- two together. tific studies have been steadily gering 120,000 people a year Russell Schnell, director of worsening. With the UNFCCC are killed by earthquakes, observatory operations at the already in place, and the tidal waves, volcanoes, floods Climate Monitoring and Diag- threat of global warming and the like. The annual nostic Laboratory (CMDL) in burning a hole in international World Disasters Report for Boulder, Colorado — an arm convention agendas, it would 1999, issued by the Interna- of the US National Oceanic seem that a mechanism for tional Federation of Red Cross and Atmospheric Administra- reducing GGEs will soon and Red Crescent Societies,

“This point is stressed by Aubrey Meyer, director of the UK group the Glo- bal Commons Institute (GCI) and author of Contraction and Convergence: the Global Solution to Climate Change (Green Books). Without a feasible and binding plan for dealing with global warming, Meyer predicts climate change will wreak havoc on the developing world. Talking to the Weekly, Meyer noted that population increases will inevitably increase the number of people affected by natural — and, indeed, “unnatural” disasters. “If these occur [in places] where there are already local conflicts over the use of land and other resources — as with storms in Orissa or droughts in the Middle East, for example — these impacts can only aggravate such conflicts.”

noted that natural disasters tion (NOAA) — notes that a follow. But policies are not set were the leading cause of change in the intensity of by scientists; they are agreed refugee crises, more so than severe storms “would have to on by politicians and minis- armed conflicts. be large and persistent over ters, who have to answer to long time scales to be detect- angry taxpayers if fuel prices Prodded by instant coverage able.” But Schnell argues that go up and powerful compa- of natural disasters by inter- recordings of storm intensity nies, like the oil industry national news channels, these before a few decades ago are players who poured money tragedies seem more real to insufficient to make this kind into the campaign of US us than they have in the past. of judgment. He suggests that President George W Bush. And this may be leading us to sharp population increases Once the glow of collective think things are worse than over the last half-century have do-goodism wore off, govern- they are. As the dissemination pushed people into places ments became less enthusias- of information becomes more susceptible to weather tic about the reality of cutting increasingly advanced and hazards, like flooding and down CO2 emissions and immediate, we are prone to tornadoes, and hence, “storm commitments were stretched believe that the world is detection and storm fatalities and carefully worded. Two collapsing around us. It be- are both going up — when in meetings of the countries comes easy to assume that reality, storm numbers and party to the UNFCCC (in extreme weather is rising, and intensity are probably chang- Berlin, in 1995, and in Ge- the next logical step is to ing little.” finger global warming as the neva, in 1996) stressed the cause. But most scientists Which is to say, the layman’s importance of action, but agree that events such as perception is one thing, and quibbled over the means to

186 the end. And yet, despite accepts that we have a major ters.” tough negotiations and the problem with CO2,” he told Al- “Not every natural disturbance highly charged atmosphere of Ahram Weekly. “Agreements is a disaster, and not every the third conference of parties and treaties can be amended disaster is completely natural,” (COP3), in Kyoto, Japan, the and modified. What one calls writes Abramovitz. “We have only document on the table a treaty is not as important as altered so many natural about climate change — the what it does or where it could systems so dramatically that Kyoto Protocol — was lead to. When it is in its their ability to bounce back adopted. economic interests, the US from disturbance has been will do more on CO2 control.” It was at the Kyoto summit greatly diminished.” The idea that the main bargaining Given the claims of so-called that Abramovitz drives home points of an international skeptics, one has to wonder if is that we cannot wait until agreement were delineated — the doomsday scenarios are a the disaster strikes, we must and they remain today. The way of provoking lethargic consider not having a “disas- US introduced the highly governments into action for a ter” at all. controversial concept of cause that is undeniably This point is stressed by “flexibility mechanisms” noble, even without global Aubrey Meyer, director of the (FMs), which treat the amount warming: a reduction of UK group the Global Com- of carbon emissions allotted pollutants and a shift to mons Institute (GCI) and to a country under the proto- cleaner energy sources. David author of Contraction and col like currency. A country R Easterling, principal scientist Convergence: the Global over its GGE limit can trade at the NOAA’s North Carolina- Solution to Climate Change emissions or promote projects based National Climatic Data (Green Books). Without a believed to “absorb” CO2 Center (NCDC), goes a step feasible and binding plan for emissions (so-called carbon further. “The end goal is an dealing with global warming, sinks), like forests or admirable one — to reduce Meyer predicts climate change grasslands, in other countries. pollution and dependence on will wreak havoc on the They might also fund projects a fossil fuels, since these are a developing world. Talking to in developing countries that finite resource,” he told the the Weekly, Meyer noted that would eventually decrease Weekly, noting that since population increases will their emissions (known as there will be warming, it is a inevitably increase the clean development mecha- matter of how much we are number of people affected by nisms). Negotiations over FMs willing to risk. “The question natural — and, indeed, “un- dissolved the COP6 talks in is how much it will warm and natural” disasters. “If these The Hague in November how fast. The issue is, we occur [in places] where there 2000, and threatened to do don’t know how sensitive the are already local conflicts over the same when the Confer- climate is, and it is just as the use of land and other ence of Parties met again last likely that we will have signifi- resources — as with storms in month in Bonn, Germany. But cant warming than little Orissa or droughts in the a tightly crafted deal saved warming.” Middle East, for example — the last remnants of the Kyoto Others are even less equivo- these impacts can only aggra- Protocol, despite significant cal. In her State of the World vate such conflicts.” watering down of the original 2001 chapter, “Averting Un- deal and the US’s refusal to With more and more parties natural Disasters,” Janet sign. pulled into the debate, it Abramovitz, senior researcher seems that more questions Though it is a pale shadow of at the Worldwatch Institute in are generated, more data is the original UNFCCC, most Washington, DC, wryly notes ammassed and more agendas scientists feel that a weak that although the United are plugged, while inaction agreement is better than no Nations had earmarked the remains constant. How to pin agreement, even without the 1990s as the “International down a goal so elusive? This US. The CMDL’s Russ Schnell Decade for Natural Disaster is a question the political was pragmatic on the subject. Reduction,” this period “may establishment has never been “Something is better than go down in history as the able to answer. nothing in this case, if one International Decade of Disas-

187 August 23 - Al-AhramAhramAhram Who’s talking about what? Not only do they disagree, blame for warming squarely or minus 0.2¡C. Evidence that they disagree about on man — hence implying the earth is warming seems whether they agree. Al- culpability for all the human overwhelmingly strong, but Ahram Weekly examines suffering caused by changes some scientists argue that the the state of the debate in weather patterns. The UN earth goes through phases among scientists about framework for climate change and that what is currently climate change (UNFCCC) assumes this culpa- dubbed “global warming” is bility and tries to lessen it by simply part of the natural ebb There are three separate controlling emissions in a way and flow of the earth’s atmos- issues often lumped under the that gives ecosystems enough phere — a worldwide pattern all-purpose heading “climate time to adapt and cope with of cooling and heating. And change.” The foundation of though the scientific the debate is that community is often average tempera- lumped into a collec- tures, including “The level of greenhouse con- tive voice heralding figures for land centration in the atmosphere at this the earth’s destruc- and ocean sur- time is higher than anywhere in data tion, there are many face temperatures researchers and have risen over sets going back half a million years,” climatologists who the last century. A says GCI’s Meyer. “Historically these question the direct significant in- levels have varied but at significantly relation between crease in Green- lower average value than the levels we GGEs and climate house Gas Emis- have achieved since the industrial revo- change. These sions (GGEs), lution began around 200 years ago. It scientists are la- particularly CO2, belled “sceptics” and has also been is possible — perhaps probable — that are often dismissed recorded. These continuing this unrelenting pulse of as being on the cusp two facts to- human emissions will trigger global of the scientific gether have led climatic upheaval.” Referring to the community or having scientists to claim that it is not clear that anything a hidden agenda. conclude that damage to the has indeed gone “wrong,” Meyer in- The logic of global earth’s ozone sists, “The point [Lindzen] makes is warming seems layer, along with simply: if there isn’t a problem, don’t difficult to dispute. the increased fix it. Even if GGEs did not GGEs, are warm- spark the warming ing the earth. The However, it is obvious that there is a trend, they can only first observation, problem, and that we are all going to aggravate it. The which simply be broke if we don’t fix it.” majority of scientists recognises a in the field are change, is “cli- persuaded that the mate change”; evidence linking increased temperatures. the second deduction from emissions and warming is that to a theory of global According to the Environmen- incontrovertible. Environmen- warming. tal Protection Agency (EPA), tal groups insist that denying global temperatures have human culpability is to persist Though there are many gone up between 0.3¡C and in wilful ignorance and to scientists who question our 0.6¡C. This roughly concurs resist constructive change in ability to make this deduction, with UN Inter-governmental the way human civilisation it is the nexus on which the Panel on Climate Change draws its energy. whole debate about climate (IPCC) estimates, which change depends. It places the But asked about increased suggest a 0.6¡C increase, plus

188 disasters due to climate more dramatic than has them,” he told the Weekly. “If change, S Fred Singer of the occurred in the past and that the earth had no atmosphere, Science and Environmental man, plants, and animals will and therefore no greenhouse Policy Project was adamant not be able to adapt fast gas concentration and warm- that the media misrepresents enough to handle the change ing effect, the planet would be scientists as unified in the gracefully.” sub-zero temperature at night contention that global warm- and above boiling during the “Mr Singer does not speak for ing is a reality, implying that day. In these conditions — as most climatologists,” re- only a few, rogue malcontents on the moon — life as we marked David R Easterling, depart from this view. “I don’t know it would not be possible. principal scientist at the know of any responsible The atmosphere, aided by its NOAA’s North Carolina-based scientist who would link interactions with the oceans National Climatic Data Center earthquakes, volcano erup- and the biosphere, moderates (NCDC), the world’s largest tions, etc., to increases in these extremes. However, the active archive of weather atmospheric greenhouse global temperature increases data. “He chooses only evi- gases,” Singer told Al-Ahram now reported by most serious dence that seems to support Weekly. “In fact, many scien- scientists are a simple result his position, ignoring most tists are becoming convinced of the uncontested increase of credible evidence. Most clima- by the data that [global greenhouse gas concentra- tologists in climate change warming] is negligible.” This tions in the atmosphere, research do not think that opinion has been echoed by which result from the uncon- global warming is ‘negligible’. several scientists in the field. tested increase of human On the contrary it is becoming MIT climatologist Richard S emissions of these gases.” more clear that climate Lindzen, who took part in a change is real.” Citing the Simon Torok, of the UK-based report issued in June by the most recent IPCC report — “a Tyndall Centre for Climate National Academy of Sciences, product of many hundreds of Change Research, is equally said as much last month in his scientists actively working in certain of the case for warm- comments published in the US climate research” — Easterling ing. While he dismisses con- magazine The New American, notes that the evidence is nections between disasters and environmental scientist becoming very clear that like earthquakes to global Patrick J Michaels wrote a “humans are impacting the warming, he does suggest scathing op-ed deconstruction climate, resulting in climate that “future increases in of the myth of scientific con- change.” severe weather events are sensus in a July issue of The likely, and the vast majority of National Review. “The science behind the IPCC scientists believe climate report is the best available in Russ Schnell, of the US Cli- change is happening and that the field,” says Schnell. “There mate Monitoring Diagnostic humans have been a contrib- is no doubt that humans have Laboratory (CMDL), admits uting factor.” the capability to change that not all scientists agree climate. Just look at defor- In an article in The New about global warming, but estation and desertification. American, MIT’s Richard adds that many do. He told There is debate on how the Lindzen argues that the period the Weekly that there is equal whole CO2 scenario will play of time during which we have dispute over the effects of out, but the basic physics of studied trends in climate CO2 build-up and how it will the phenomenon are not in change — roughly 20 years — manifest itself. “But, no scien- question.” is too short to be able to tist disputes that CO2 is determine if there is a real increasing faster today than in Aubrey Meyer, director of the threat, or, in fact, anything the past million years or so,” London- based Global Com- extraordinary going on. The Schnell notes. “Climate mons Institute (GCI), agrees. article also notes that tem- change has always been part “The laws of physics and peratures were similar to of the natural cycles of earth thermo- dynamics are univer- present conditions in 1940, and atmosphere. It is just that sal and apply regardless of and that in the 1970s, people the current CO2-induced the number of people who were even worried about a change may be faster and may or may not recognise new ice-age. But the NCDC’s

189 Easterling rejects this claim, phere at this time is higher sions will trigger global cli- saying that climatologists look than anywhere in data sets matic upheaval.” Referring to at the past 120 years, not 20 going back half a million the claim that it is not clear years. Refuting the claim that years,” says GCI’s Meyer. that anything has indeed gone temperatures in the 1940s “Historically these levels have “wrong,” Meyer insists, “The were much cooler worldwide, varied but at significantly point [Lindzen] makes is Easterling noted that “climate lower average value than the simply: if there isn’t a prob- science has advanced a lot levels we have achieved since lem, don’t fix it. However, it is since the mid- 1970s, and the industrial revolution began obvious that there is a prob- what was believed then is not around 200 years ago. It is lem, and that we are all going relevant today.” possible — perhaps probable to be broke if we don’t fix it.” — that continuing this unre- “The level of greenhouse lenting pulse of human emis- concentration in the atmos-

August - The UN Observer Risk Management of Climate Change “ . . . . . Contraction & Two new protocols would of the “C&C” process would Convergence” would be the be created to deal with the be 2050 or sooner if possi- driving principle behind the issue of sinks (forestry) and ble. Emissions contraction new approach. new technology (renewa- should start immediately to bles). Carbon credits for be effective. Time is of the Contraction & Convergence enhanced sink capacity and essence.” targets (upper global cap use of renewable energy on emissions and conver- Julian E Salt - of the LPC would be overseen by a gence point) would be Centre for Risk Sciences, Carbon Credit body. adjusted according to the BRE - latest scientific findings Emissions trading would still emenating .from the IPCC. exist but initial allocations The upper carbon cap could of credits would be based be adjusted downwards if on the equity principle the latest findings showed (population based). that climate change was Ideally, the ultimate end increasing at a dangerous time-frame for completion rate.

190 September 2001 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Contraction and Convergence” – A Policy Briefing on Climate Change to the Performance and Innovation Unit of the UK Government Cabinet Office.

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

November 30 - Finacial Times

“ . . . . Many politicians - UK. But wealthy countries and businesses making may baulk at the stringency long-term investment plans of the cuts it implies, which - would prefer to agree on could be as much as 80 per some overarching principles cent by 2100. that would determine future Given the controversy emissions targets. surrounding the Kyoto For some policymakers, the Protocol, the international answer is “contraction and community has already convergence”, an ambitious achieved a stronger agree- proposal for stabilising ment than many sceptics greenhouse gases under thought possible. But as which every country would countries start to prepare converge on the same the ground for the next emissions allocation per stage of the global agree- inhabitant by an agreed ment on climate change, it date. is clear that past achieve- ments are dwarfed by the This simple, bold approach magnitude of the chal- has commanded support lenges ahead.” from many sources, ranging from President Chirac of France to the Chartered Insurance Institute of the

191 November - Libdem News Green Justice in a Climate of Terrorerrorerror

In his ground-breaking Green gripped Afghanistan and large traction and Convergence of Alliance speech in March this parts of central Asia in the last greenhouse gas emissions to year Charles Kennedy coined three years. equal quotas for every world the phrase Green Justice to citizen will meet the need for Halting climate change implies sum up the ethos which equity but give the world time a 60 per cent reduction in inspires Liberal Democrats as to plan and develop its re- greenhouse gas emissions we address the global chal- sponse through new technol- during this century and even lenges of poverty and environ- ogy and ways of life, while bigger cuts in the rich north. mental degradation. trading of emission quotas will That sounds daunting. Yet the maximise the efficiency of A key step to endorse and technologies are becoming change. give shape to that strategy economically available to was taken by Party Confer- make that shift - through In his Green Alliance speech ence when it called for “a wind, tidal, solar and hydro- Charles Kennedy pioneered Europe-South initiative for a gen power, through energy the idea of a global Commu- long-term global framework to efficiency and decentralised nity on these lines. Today the cap CO2 concentrations by combined heat and power. Government’s energy review, contraction of greenhouse gas The need is for a strong together with mounting cross- emissions down to the level political framework which bench support in the House of needed to stabilise the cli- gives clear market signals for Commons, offer an opportu- mate, and convergence to a longterm investment effort nity to press the Government equal emission quotas per by the world business commu- to adopt this strategy. If the head of population”. nity. Prime Minister takes it up he would find ready collaborators In so doing it gave timely As for equity, the talk of world amongst other states of the political backing to the Royal community in face of terror- EU and an opportunity for Commission on Environmental ism has starkly exposed the global leadership at the Earth Pollution which has urged this failure of a global system that Summit next year. strategy of “Contraction and relies on hegemony instead of Convergence” as the best solidarity and forced a com- The US under Bush may prospect of achieving “equity, placent West to acknowledge continue to hang back. That is economy and international the need for a fairer sharing why Europe and the South consensus” and whose report of world wealth and re- must lead the way. But recent is a key element in the Gov- sources. What sharing could events have underlined the ernment’s current energy be more fundamental than a surreal geopolitics of a US review. fair sharing of the limited energy policy which will rely capacity of our atmosphere to on Saudi Arabia and central The policy has urgent rel- absorb the polluting emissions Asia for over half its oil sup- evance to the deeper global which, until now, have been plies and puts its faith in issues raised by the suffering the concomitant of economic expanding nuclear power. As of Afghanistan and the strug- growth? the US learns painfully that it gle with terrorism. Though a is not omnipotent, it too will modified Kyoto climate deal The US justifies its failure to need the security of a sustain- has been rescued from ob- act on climate change by able energy policy in solidarity livion, the world’s carbon claiming that a solution to a with the rest of the world. emissions will still be over 20 global problem must involve Once again Liberal Democrats per cent higher than the 1990 all countries. Yet the develop- are pointing the way. level in 2010. ing countries which have a vital interest in action cannot by Chris Layton Meanwhile climatic upheavals commit to play their part if continue to take their grim restrictions on emissions are toll, not least in the drought designed to freeze the gulf and famine which have between rich and poor. Con-

192 2002

January - New Internationalist A PPA arliament for the Planet “The only fair and lasting equal pollution quota to Full article can be found at means of reducing CO2 everyone on earth) would www.newint.org (namely ‘contraction and surely be impossible to convergence’, which means implement without a world working out how much parliament.” pollution the planet can George Monbiot, Author take, then allocating an Captive State

January - New Internationalist Going Down in History “The legacy of ecological vergence. trade their entitlements if debt can be recognized and they wish. This way, if rich Fortunately, just such a dealt with by adopting a countries want to continue plan, stemming from the forward-looking plan on taking up more than their London-based Global Com- climate change. Developing fair share of the world’s mons Institute, is gaining countries can argue for a environmental space, they favour among governments, global deal that acknowl- will at least have to pay for the financial community and edges their logical entitle- the privilege, generating in developing countries. ment to an equal share of much-needed resources for the global commons of the Contraction and conver- countries that need them.” atmosphere. Instead of the gence requires setting a Andrew Simms historical expansion of maximum greenhouse-gas Policy Director greenhouse-gas emissions concentration target for the New Economics Founda- and divergence between atmosphere. After that, all tion the world’s rich and poor, countries logically claim LONDON there needs to be a plan for their right to share the both contraction and con- ‘emissions pie’, but can Full article can be found at: www.newint.org

January 15 - Euromoney.com.com.com EmissionsEmissionsEmissions “It seems like the perfect maneuver if they are willing gence.” marriage of market forces to pay. And there’s money and global ethics. in it for the brokers that get involved early ...... This Emissions trading reduces method, which moves greenhouse gas levels while beyond Kyoto, is known as giving companies and Contraction and Conver- countries room to

193 February 25 - American Prospect Beyond KKBeyond yoto LiteLiteyoto The Bush administration’s requirement that could concessions in a futile effort absence from the global- dampen President Bush’s to secure U.S. participation, warming talks could actu- ability to make use of his negotiators inserted more ally lead other nations to anticipated new trade-negoti- loopholes into the Marrakech pursue a bolder approach. ating authority from Con- version to overcome objec- gress. tions from Russia, Australia, At the end of the hottest and Japan. October on record, delegates Time and again, the Bush from 165 countries met in administration has isolated Critics dubbed the resulting Marrakech last fall to finalize itself by refusing to join product “Kyoto Lite.” On its the Kyoto Protocol on global international agreements on face, the treaty obligates the climate change. At first everything from land mines world’s 38 industrial nations glance, the Kyoto goals seem and international criminal (minus the United States) to negligible: By 2012, green- courts to biological weapons reduce carbon emissions an house gases must be cut to and global climate change. average of 5.2 percent below slightly below 1990 levels—a Domestically, Bush reneged 1990 levels by 2012. But reduction to be realized on a campaign promise to given the additional loop- through a loophole-ridden cap carbon emissions from holes—chiefly, the inflation of system of emissions trading. power plants. His energy plan allowances for And thanks to the Bush ad- calls for construction of at carbonabsorbing trees—the ministration, the 165 signatory least 1,300 new plants over real reductions will barely nations do not include the the next 20 years. Bush’s amount to 3 percent below United States, the superpower withdrawal from the six-year- 1990 levels, several analyses superpolluter that emits a old international climate show. (The use of forests to quarter of the world’s green- negotiations, then, epito- offset global warming is house gases. mized his views both on dubious at best. If all the energy and on international world’s forests were preserved But the agreement’s puny agreements. and its deforested areas goals may have masked the reforested, all those trees beginning of a seismic shift in Bush’s dismissal of Kyoto would absorb only about 15 the global balance of political sparked hostile demonstra- percent of the fossil-fuel power—away from the United tions in Madrid, Stockholm, emissions necessary to stabi- States and toward the Euro- and Geneva, and drew angry lize the climate, according to pean Union. “The view is words from EU officials. Even the UN-sponsored IPCC, the nonetheless widespread in Tony Blair, America’s staunch- Intergovernmental Panel on Europe,” Jessica Tuchman est ally in the antiterrorism Climate Change, which in- Matthews wrote recently in campaign, declared just cludes more than 2,000 Foreign Policy magazine, “that weeks after September 11 scientists from 100 countries.) the U.S. decision on Kyoto that “we could defeat climate Most European nations will could become a turning point change if we chose to. We meet the Kyoto Lite goals in trans-Atlantic relations.” will implement [Kyoto],” he through such relatively pain- Some European officials said. “But it’s only a start. less domestic efforts as in- actually exulted because U.S. With imagination, we could creased energy efficiency, delegates were not present. use technologies that create small carbon taxes, or internal Indeed, with the United States energy without destroying our emissions trading. not involved, the agreement planet.” may prefigure more aggres- Still, the Kyoto Protocol was a In the face of the U.S. with- sive solutions to global warm- real diplomatic accomplish- drawal, the other nations ing. The European Union has ment. Despite its loopholes, gamely struggled to produce already insisted that the World minimal goals, and lack of an a consensus plan to address Trade Organization address enforcement mechanism, it the climate crisis. Having environmental impacts—a does at last provide an inter- already made significant

194 national framework for dimin- found that by 2020, the Commons Institute in Britain. ishing the climate crisis. And United States could meet 20 It addresses a fundamental with the absence of recalci- percent of its electricity needs inequity embedded in the trant, foot-dragging U.S. with renewables, save con- Kyoto Protocol, which essen- delegates, other countries sumers $440 billion, and avoid tially allows high-polluting may find it easier to promote having to build 975 new nations to keep on polluting more aggressive approaches power plants. by using their past emissions to reversing climate change. levels as a baseline. The The world needs global strate- burden of reducing global There is, in fact, a range of gies that will enable countries emissions would fall dispro- cost-effective solutions that like India, China, Mexico, and portionately on less-developed could both pacify the climate Venezuela to replace their nations. Not surprisingly, and begin to reverse the coal- and oil-based energy those nations want a single grotesque economic inequities economies with wind, solar, global per capita allowance for that fuel anti-U.S. hostility in hydrogen, and biomass carbon emissions so that they the third world. Three years sources—and provide suffi- have room to develop. ago, more than 2,500 econo- cient clean energy for future mists, including six Nobel development. That transition Contraction and Convergence laureates, declared that we would create huge numbers of provides an ingenious mecha-

“ . . . . . The world needs global strategies that will enable countries like India, China, Mexico, and Venezuela to replace their coal- and oil-based energy economies with wind, solar, hydrogen, and biomass sources—and provide sufficient clean energy for future development. That transition would create huge numbers of jobs abroad and allow the world’s poorest citizens—many of whom feel abused and exploited by the wealthy nations— higher living standards, without the assault on the environment that charac- terized Western development. One such plan, called Contraction and Convergence, was developed by the Global Commons Institute in Britain. It addresses a fundamental inequity embedded in the Kyoto Protocol, which essentially allows high-polluting nations to keep on polluting by using their past emissions levels as a base- line. The burden of reducing global emissions would fall disproportionately on less-developed nations. Not surprisingly, those nations want a single global per capita allowance for carbon emissions so that they have room to develop. “

can cut our emissions—up to jobs abroad and allow the nism for the world both to set 30 percent, by some esti- world’s poorest citizens— a maximum carbon limit by a mates—simply through many of whom feel abused date certain and to achieve efficiencies and conservation, and exploited by the wealthy convergence in the nations’ with a net gain in jobs and nations—higher living stand- emissions rights, which would productivity. A report issued in ards, without the assault on gradually be redistributed so early December 2001 by the the environment that charac- that the world would achieve Tellus Institute, the Union of terized Western development. a uniform per capita alloca- Concerned Scientists, and the tion. This would put appropri- One such plan, called Contrac- American Council for an ate pressure on rich nations, tion and Convergence, was Energy-Efficient Economy, which generate the most developed by the Global

195 pollutants, to shift to tougher standards by drawing diseases are migrating. Vio- nonpolluting renewables. more energy from renewable lent weather events are sources. That shift, in turn, occurring more often. The An even bolder approach, the would create the mass mar- very timing of the seasons has World Energy Modernization kets and economies of scale changed. And all this is the Plan—drafted by a group of for renewables that would result of just one degree of energy-company presidents, make them as cheap as or warming. According to the economists, energy-policy cheaper than coal and oil. IPCC, the earth will warm specialists, and others (includ- from 4 degrees to 11 degrees ing this writer)—proposes a This subsidy switch would later in this century. combination of three policies convert oil companies into that would reduce carbon energy companies. The pro- In November the highly re- emissions by 70 percent. The gressive fossil-fuel efficiency spected British medical journal plan calls for the redirection of standard would also jump- The Lancet estimated that energy subsidies away from start renewable energy, pro- millions of people, mostly in fossil fuels to renewable pelling it into a global indus- developing countries, will die sources in industrial nations; try. Worldwide competition for over the next 20 years from the creation of a fund on the the new market in clean warming-driven outbreaks of order of $300 billion a year to energy would power the dengue fever, malaria, chol- transfer clean energy to whole process. era, encephalitis, and pulmo- developing countries (financed nary diseases. If the world By refusing even to consider a either through a .025 percent does not soon address the plan of this scope and scale, “Tobin tax” on international climate crisis in its true di- Bush is not only risking the currency transactions or mensions, it will not much U.S. leadership role; he is also through carbon taxes in matter where global political ceding the leadership of the industrial countries); and the leadership lies. Our fossil-fuel next energy economy as replacement of the Kyoto dependency will propel us all European-produced solar, framework of international into an indeterminate season wind, and hydrogen technolo- carbon trading with a progres- of disintegration. gies gradually come to domi- sively more stringent fossil- nate world energy markets. Ross Gelbspan fuel efficiency standard. In Marrakech, November is Under the stricter standard, normally the height of the every nation would increase rainy season. As the delegates its fossil-fuel efficiency by 5 convened, however, Moroc- percent a year until the global cans were struggling through 70 percent reduction is the fourth year of a severe achieved. Since few econo- drought that is destroying mies can maintain a 5 percent forests, depleting water annual growth rate, emissions tables, and promoting the reductions would outpace spread of deserts into villages. economic growth. This would In nearby Algeria, the worst be much easier to monitor flooding in memory killed than measuring emissions; it more than 1,000 people, would simply entail comparing collapsed buildings, and the ratio of carbon-fuel con- turned streets into rivers— sumption with gross domestic another indicator of the vio- product. Countries would lent and unseasonal weather initially realize their goals by that marks early-stage global implementing inexpensive warming. energy efficiencies, such as better conservation and more- Climate change is unmistak- fuel-efficient cars. As those ably accelerating. The deep efficiencies became more oceans are warming. The expensive to capture, coun- tundra is thawing. The gla- tries would meet gradually ciers are melting. Infectious

196 March/April - Green Futures EnergyEnergyEnergy...... Environment If we want to create a on energy supplies from far and Central Asia: the oil habit. more secure and sustain- flung sources, and acknowl- For all our carping about able world, we need some edge in forward strategy American gas-guzzlers, Euro- pretty fundamental re- documents that climate peans are actually more thinking of traditional change may lead to serious dependent on this supply than policy divisions. So is it destabilisation of nations and the New World. Britain has its happening? whole regions. own, rapidly dwindling stash, and is teetering on the edge Caspar Henderson scans So who’s pulling these to- of becoming a hungry im- Whitehall for signs of gether into a coherent policy porter. In the two months some strategic joinery, framework? after 11 September, British and comes out sceptical. Britain, with roughly 1% of purchases of large, fuel- But, over the page, For- the world’s population, con- hungry vehicles grew by a eign Office Minister is suming 2% of its energy and massive 15% - a growth rate more optimistic . . . . producing 3% of GDP, is a exceeded only in the US itself. Energy - where we get it and small to middle-sized player, Oil, and to a lesser extent gas, how much pollution it causes - which nevertheless likes to is at the heart of the matter, lies at a crossroads of many see itself at the forefront of because the hyper mobile concerns about security and finding solutions. We have a economies of the West are the environment. Wars are climate strategy intended to ineluctably dependent on fought over oil, and climate deliver a 20 cut in greenhouse these fuels, and are set to change threatens the security gas emissions on 1990 levels remain so. Even the most of millions. How, then, to by 2010 - one of the most optimistic forecasts for tech- deliver durable and affordable ambitious targets of any nological innovation don’t see supplies of energy to British industrialised country. We a phase out of oil within 30 industry and consumers, while have a cautious, yet solid and years. And the serious money reducing the risks of conflict growing commitment to in capital investment - from over resources and the im- renewables. The Foreign Airbus’s new generation of pacts of climate change? Office has a team dedicated super-planes designed to to finding solutions to energy This is a bigger challenge cater to the anticipated an- challenges with both an than, say, making the trains nual 5% growth in demand environment and a security run on time or organising a for long haul flights, to the aspect. Looks like a pretty system to recycle refrigera- next generation of motor cars coherent agenda. So are we tors. Some call it the ultimate (including those that will run on target for a more peaceful, test of joined-up government, on fuel cells) - is predicated renewable world? After 11 requiring reform in everything on a virtually endless supply September, almost nobody from transport to toasters. of affordable petroleum. thinks that. Speaking to Making links between energy What to do? Price rises may military analysts a few weeks solutions and security strategy be an option, but they’re after the event, Peter Hain has been a popular pastime hardly seen as politically painted a telling image: “A since at least the late 1980s. feasible. In Britain, the gov- significant proportion of the In the green hats, environ- ernment notoriously ran for funding for the Taliban came mentalists call for a new cover when one of its most from consumer choices made ‘Manhattan Project’ (bringing progressive environmental in our midst, the sale of the same scale of commit- taxes, fuel price escalator, heroin in our backyard funded ment and urgency to building started to hurt. Even in Ger- Bin Laden.” But there is an- a renewable economy as was many, with its comparatively other consumer choice made applied to making the atomic excellent public transport by millions every day that bomb in the early 1940s). In alternatives, environmentalists links us even more strongly the tin hats, military analysts got clobbered at the polls than drugs to the Middle East point to the dangers of relying

197 when they tried to raise fuel the meanwhile. more bellicose rhetoric from prices to a degree that would its Ministers. But where is the The government’s review of affect demand. link for example, the visionary energy supply, which aims to concern expressed in its In the light of this, some set a framework for the next strategy documents about suggest that only a price rise 50 years, looks like a good insecurity and climate change, somehow imposed from place to start. This recom- and its opposition to the outside could do the trick. mends 20% of electricity construction of offshore wind Islamic fundamentalist activ- should come from renewables farms? ists in the Gulf have, course, by 2020 - a less ambitious been touting this for years. target than most of the EU, Nor is our record overseas Osama Bin Laden, no less, but a big change for Britain. anything to shout about. Since proposed $144 as a ‘fair price Absent from the review, the Rio Summit in 1992, the - at which rate the hydrogen however, is transport - the Export Credit Guarantee economy so beloved of envi- fastest growing source of Department has supported ronmentalists would become greenhouse gas emissions. £15 billion or more in fossil the cheap, and much more National programmes to fuel and nuclear projects in cheerful, alternative. Such a increase fuel efficiency in the developing countries, effec- scenario is, of course, unlikely vehicle fleet will at best mar- tively accounting for additional - to say the least. Even if the ginally reduce the race of greenhouse gas emissions Saudi oil fields fell under the growth in the consumption of around one third the size of control of a fundamentalist fuel that will increasingly be the UK’s own. Over the same regime, OPEC is notoriously imported from further away. period, it has supported fickle, and the global market The 10-year transport plan is virtually no renewable energy would doubtless deliver a predicted to knock one minute schemes. Only in the last year price well within the realms of off journey times, but will not has the ECGD, together with affordability, whoever held the reduce petrol consumption. other leading export credit reins in Riyadh. There is also The energy review also skates agencies, begun to take steps the small matter of a hefty around some knotty concerns to monitor emissions from the western military presence in to do with nuclear power. The projects it supports. The the region. House of Commons Defence Department for International Committee hears that a ter- Development is estimated to Britain’s self-appointed role as rorist attack on Sellafield spend less than 0.7% of its leading peacekeeper in Af- could take out a large part of assistance on renewables. But ghanistan may indeed be a northern England. The gov- there are 2 billion people noble thing. But it is not the ernment tells us that the, er . living off grid whose lives whole story: companies such . . . Territorial Army will help could be greatly improved by as BP have major interests in prevent such an eventuality, the deployment of technolo- this area and the French have keeps fighters on standby at gies such as solar panels to not positioned a nuclear- northern airfields to shoot schools and hospitals. So the powered battle group in the down any rogue airliners - and recent signs of a priority shift Arabian Sea for humanitarian clears the decks for a large in Foreign Office policy in this purposes. Whatever our programme of nuclear new direction is both welcome, and differences with the US over, build. overdue. say, the Kyoto Protocol, or the wisdom of gung-ho interven- Meanwhile, the Ministry of Indeed, it is perhaps ironic tionism, British defence policy Defence gives a good impres- that some of the most promis- still looks to be fused at the sion of a left hand not know- ing signs of joined-up thinking hip to that of America. ing what the right is up to. Its in government come from the performance in countryside diplomatic, rather than do- OK, you might say, the situa- management on its ranges mestic, quarters of Whitehall. tion is far from ideal, but we wins plaudits from wildlife have to start from where we But if government efforts to groups; its willingness to are. The answer is clear turn round the super tanker engage in peacekeeping and strategic goals for the longer are only beginning, could conflict prevention is a wel- term, and incremental steps in investors, chastened by dete- come contrast to some of the

198 riorating security and hard- renewable energy even if you sions for all, and big cuts for ened by market discipline, want to, and there are very the rich countries. Meanwhile, stimulate more rapid change? few “pure plays’ in renewables notions of rapid and radical; Tough commercial interests that are not tied up in energy change look set to remain have fostered fast growth in companies with other opera- peripheral to the ‘real’ renewables. Generation from tions”. Add to that “the per- economy and the awareness wind power, the premier formance of renewable energy of most voters, many of renewable, jumped a stunning stocks over the last year has whom will be climbing on 58% worldwide last year. So been abysmal - worse even those extra long haul flights. has the changed atmosphere than other speciality stocks While some hope that a rising of the last six months made like high technology. It’s been wave of popular awareness, any difference? a sobering year.” Like Stetler, coupled with technical ad- vances in areas such as “No,” says James renewables and energy Stetler, head of efficiency, might indeed renewables at Signs, for example, that be enough to affect a Dresdner Kleinwort some big insurers and pension smooth about turn of this Wasserstiens London funds may endorse ideas as rogue super tanker, office. “September radical as ‘contraction and others are not so san- 11th and security convergence’ - the quiet revo- guine. In the words of issues more generally Paul Hirst, author of War have had no discern- lutionary in the ranks of cli- and Power in the 21st ible effect.” Such mate change; strategies, Century, a dispassionate, matters are beyond the which requires equal green- and rather scary view of horizon of most inves- house gas emissions for all, the future, “it will take tors, he thinks. And in and big cuts for the rich coun- something that frightens any case, for all their tries. the pants off people” to fast growth rate, change things. almost no one believes renewables are near to Caspar Henderson is a scale where they could senior correspondent for Robins says a clear lead from make a meaningful difference GREEN FUTURES government is crucial. “Ulti- to the energy demands of mately, it is only government industrialised economies as a that can change market whole. (Stetler suggests wind conditions - integrating long- power growth will slip to a term security questions into ‘mere’ 17% this year.) the City’s time horizons. The So what would help? “A challenge for socially responsi- production tax credit for ble investors is to move renewables - especially in the beyond micro-questions of US, the market with far the which is the best renewable biggest potential,” says Stetler, stock, and get our voice heard placing the ball firmly back in there.” And there are indeed a government court. rumblings that some major Nick Robins, head of research investors are beginning to at the Socially Responsible speak with a coherent voice to Investment team at government. Signs, for exam- Henderson Global Investors, ple, that some big insurers points to other problems. and pension funds may en- “Most fund management dorse ideas as radical as operates on a very short term ‘contraction and convergence’ view, which simply does not - the quiet revolutionary in the take account of this sort of ranks of climate change; thing. Tracking and index strategies, which requires funds make it hard to pick out equal greenhouse gas emis-

199 May 23 - Presented at the International Workshop on Oil Depletion Building Limited Fossil Energy Supplies into the World Monetary System

Richard Douthwaite the support of a majority of emissions.” the nations of the world, “Contraction and Conver- provides a way of linking a full paper at: - http:// gence (C&C), a plan for global currency with the www.gci.org.uk/papers/ reducing greenhouse gas limited capacity of the EBCUS.pdf emissions developed by the planet to absorb or break Global Commons Institute down greenhouse gas in London which has gained

June 6 - Climate Change Knowledge Network Business Perspectives - A Quickly Changing Tuneuneune “The mixed response to the gain advantage over their convergence”, a longer- Bush administration’s move less technologically sophisti- term plan to reduce global partly reflects the percep- cated rivals.” Some go so emissions by 60 per cent. tion that tackling climate far as to claim that Bush’s The Respect Group, a change will create winners stance could damage the Europe-wide business as well as losers. Some US economy because it network based in Stock- companies would benefit would give its competitors a holm, is putting another from curbs on carbon head start in developing business initiative forward. dioxide emissions. Others and using climate-friendly It says it is “critical” that might not benefit but would technologies. They draw an the EU introduce policies prefer governments to face analogy with the oil price that make the use of fossil the issue rather than be left shock of the 1970s, which fuel more expensive. Most in a state of uncertainty spurred the Japanese car businesses will take the about when and how it will industry into producing opposite tack. Lobbying be tackled. Continuing highly efficient cars that efforts will center on avoid- support for limits on carbon won new markets. ing extra taxation and emissions comes largely promoting flexible, cost- At the other end of the from companies that make effective ways of reducing spectrum, some companies energy-efficient products emissions.” are now lobbying for sur- and sophisticated controls. prisingly radical solutions to A more surprising source of http://www.cckn.net/compen- the problem of climate support comes from certain dium/ change. The Chartered car companies, despite the business_background.asp Insurance Institute, a industry having to cope professional body for the with more stringent regula- UK insurance industry, tions. The explanation, The CCKN is made possi- recently called on govern- according to an article in ble by the generous sup- ments to replace the Kyoto Harvard Business Review in port of: protocol, which calls for a 5 July, was that companies Canadian International per cent cut in emissions by such as General Motors and Development Agency 2010, with a proposal Ford Motor “see climate (CIDA) known as “contraction and change as an opportunity to Department of Foreign

200 Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT), Canada Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway International Develop- ment Research Centre (IDRC), Canada

June 13 - Le Monde Diplomtique “Contraction & Convergence” The Global Framework for Solutions to Climate ChangeChangeChange “ . . . . Asymmetric condi- Full article at: - http:// tions in the economy make www.amisuk.f9.co.uk/ ‘carbon’ cheap and renewa- ourarticles/Apr02art4.html bles expensive. They also decrease sustainability and increase poverty. However, imagine a future where climate change has been avoided and humani- ty’s long-term prospects are more secure than now. Looking back from there we see that by definition greenhouse gas emissions have contracted to a safe level and that within this contraction, the per capita emissions levels of different countries have converged. The fact is this “Contraction and Convergence” process is intrinsic to any emissions scenario that stabilises the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. So the real questions are only, does this come about by chance and guesswork or by building it formally into an international frame- work. This largely deter- mines the second question; - at what rate will C&C occur?”

201 July 19 - World RRorld eview of Books “Contraction & Convergence – the Global Solution to Climate Change”

Schumacher Briefing Global Commons Institute Climate Change (IPCC). The number 5 by Aubrey (GCI). From the outset book also reproduces Meyer Dave Bradney, Jim Berreen, miniatures of some of the Tony Cooper and I agreed quite startling mural-size Some comments by the that more than anything graphic C&C imagery we author on the book, the else, by changing the global created for use at the UN issues and the state of climate, humanity was on a climate negotiations and play collision course with itself recalls the effects of this and with the planet. We and how reactions to the In 1989 I made a decision adopted the simple formu- campaign changed as a that rearranged my life. I lation of “Equity and Sur- result over the years. How- joined the efforts by the vival”. And as we analysed ever the C&C book was Greens to prevent global the destructive trends of published before the Third ecological collapse. expansion and divergence IPCC Assessment was For years prior to that deci- in the global economy, we published (June 2001) in sion, I had been a profes- came to formulate and which we had built on that sional musician. At the time I campaign for “Contraction success to the IPCC’s recog- had wanted to write a ‘musi- and Convergence” (C&C) as nition that, “C&C takes the cal’ and unexpectedly, the the remedy. rights-based approach to its logical conclusion.” search for subject matter got Looking at the data, it was out of control. The assassina- obvious from the outset Increasingly in recent years tion of Chico Mendez reported that the wealthy countries the reactions are positive. The in the Observer the previous of the world had grown rich Financial and Insurance December had seemed like a and powerful while running Initiative of the UNEP has possible idea for the musical. up on the global account a adopted a position in favour But researching this horrible massive environmental debt of C&C. Numerous ordinary murder became a crash that exposed the countries and eminent individuals and course on the growing envi- already impoverished by institutions have added their ronmental crisis. In a moment this process to shrinking support. But early on there of revulsion and anxiety that development opportunities were very trying times as has never really gone away, I and a growing vulnerability everyone struggled to con- joined the UK Green Party. to damages from climate front this awesome new Instead of writing the musical, change. problem with arcane and I read things like Jonathon archaic habits. In essence, The book recalls getting to Porritt’s, “Seeing Green” and GCI challenged the formula- grips with this. It describes the ‘Penang Manifesto’ of the tions of the neo-classical how for ten years GCI World Rainforest Movement economists who had pre- reasoned with the diplo- and so became involved in sumed to dominate the policy mats, negotiators, experts what was already called, the debate, for what they were - and policy makers all over struggle to save the planet. marginal. We sought to en- the word. It explains how close their methods within the “Contraction and Conver- and why C&C evolved in the more durable formulation of gence – the Global Solution light of this considerable securing prosperity through to Climate change” is the struggle. It details how we precaution, equity and effi- little book I wrote ten years won a great struggle of ciency in that order. This is later about what happened ideas in the policy debate in what C&C does and while real because of that decision. the mid 1990s in the Sec- policy thinking matures slowly With three friends from the ond Assessment of the in favour of C&C, lack of its Green Party I formed the Intergovernmental Panel on

202 real application keeps us on moved on and even wiped Sustainable Development in the collision course. out. Tuvalu is already being Johannesburg later this year. evacuated and hundreds of While the Kyoto Protocol is As it grows, the global thousands of people living on seen as ‘a first step’ it is economy has become almost the margins have already died widely recognized as a pro- seamless, because money - in catastrophic climate- foundly inadequate response like air - penetrates all the change-related hurricanes in to this looming crisis. available space. And there is Central America and cyclones no pretending that people Sadly though, winning the in Africa and in Asia. don’t go after both. At the argument is not winning the same time, because of inter- Worse, much worse, is yet to war. As the C&C book only dependence, this now means come. If we project the cur- partly records, it already had that every unit of activity in rent rates of GDP/CO2 growth many powerful backers this economy is in some and climate related damages, around the world at the time measure linked to the effects the value of the damages will it was published in November of burning fossil fuels. In exceed the value of the global 2000 and it has acquired other words, rich or poor and economy within about 60 many more since then. As a whether we burn fossil fuel or years. If humanity succeeds in single coherent proposition it wood copiously or frugally, we stopping this from running probably now has more sup- are all now linked via the completely out of control, port than any other. At the economy and the environment construction of the Great Wall same time, getting off the to both the causes and the of China will seem by com- collision course to catastrophic effects of human induced parison like a weekend in global climate change is going global climate change. Lego Land. The post-war to require much more than Marshall Plan will seem like this and the advocates of C&C The ‘greenhouse-gas’ (ghg) the redeeming of so many face the numbing counter- emissions from this fossil fuel book tokens. If we succeed, culture of military-commercial burning are accumulating in security through rigorously priorities centered in Washing- the global atmosphere and planned international coopera- ton DC. Recent developments slowly but surely trapping tion will have superseded show how incongruously easy more and more of the sun’s economic competition, coer- it is to be blind to the enor- heat as time goes by. While cion, conflict and terror as the mity of the obstacles against the rise in global temperature primary framework of security rising effectively to the global is uneven over time and with the ethos of conserving climate challenge. space, altogether this trend of and sharing the resources that enhancing of the natural President George Bush has preserve civilization. greenhouse effect is causing just aptly - if unintentionally - global weather patterns to In its report “Energy – the demonstrated again that become progressively more Changing Climate” (June leading with economic ‘effi- violent and erratic with more 2000) the Royal Commission ciency’ (in his parlance ‘inten- floods, droughts, storms and on Environmental Pollution sity’) arguments can be utterly sea-level rise. According to made the advocacy of C&C misleading. As a US ‘alterna- the estimates of the big re- the third of its 87 recommen- tive’ to what he called the insurance companies, this dations to the UK Govern- ‘unfair’ Kyoto Protocol, he overall syndrome is causing a ment. A leading British broad- recently had the sauce to rate of economic losses that is sheet claimed, “little man’s big commit the US to ‘voluntary’ now rising at four times the idea could save the world” gains against their current rate of economic growth. In a and I winked. Now that the efficiency value of $5,464 per nutshell, this is already a recent UK Energy Review by tonne of carbon rising to death knell for low-lying the Cabinet Office has broadly $6,623 per tonne over the coastal areas in Holland, supported C&C, some people next ten years. While this Bangladesh, Egypt and the feel the argument has won. roundly commits the US to South Pacific because of rising Campaigners are joining carry on with business-as- sea level. In a hideous asym- hands in calling for it to be usual, this is held up by the metry, while the GDP rich get part of Tony Blair’s ‘big idea’ administration as, “a more richer, the CO2 poorer get at the World Summit on practical way to discuss goals

203 with developing countries.” reserves have jumped would be on the global ac- almost two-thirds over the count. However, with their currencies past 20 years, according to corrected for exchange rate However valiant the many and the Department of Energy, distortions, developing coun- varied efforts to rebut this while natural gas reserves tries (on this measure) remain litany of complacency are, have roughly doubled. Our consistently orders of magni- they will remain divided and best estimates on coal say tude more efficient than the ruled by this arrogance until we have enough for the countries of the OECD. In there is a really coherent and next two centuries. So other words they may be united global campaign for supply is not the issue, and poor, but the awkward bit for C&C based on the realisation neither is demand, leaving the US is that they are more of equity and survival. only the question of moving efficient.1 At the rate of gain the energy from those who But then I’m just a musician projected by the White House, have it to those who need it and what do I know? the US might become as - and therein lies the rub. efficient as Nepal or Namibia Aubrey Meyer ($100,000/tonne) by the late U.S. naval presence in Asia Director 22nd Century. is becoming far less an Global Commons Institute expression of our nation’s (GCI) Furthermore, depreciating for forward presence than an the energy content of its “exporting” of security to 1 imports, the US produces net See: - the global marketplace. In probably nearer $3,000 than that regard, we truly do http://www.gci.org.uk/images/ $5,000 of income per tonne of move into the Leviathan Efficiency.pdf fossil fuel burned domestically. category, for the “product” 2 With the US’ global trade we provide is increasingly a Professor at the U.S. Naval deficit alone now accumulated collective good less directly War College, currently serving at nearly three trillion dollars, tied to our particularistic as the Assistant for Strategic this is equivalent to 1 billion national interests and far Futures in the Office of Force tonnes of the extra atmos- more intimately wrapped up Transformation within the pheric carbon now forcing with our global responsibili- Office of the Secretary of Tuvaluans to flee the rising ties. Defense seas of climate change. To get And in the end, this is a some sense of perspective, 1 Aubrey Meyer was born in pretty good deal. We trade billion tonnes is almost what Bradford in 1947. He grew up little pieces of paper (our the US emits annually. This is in South Africa and studied currency, in the form of a the figure that by mid-term music at the University of trade deficit) for Asia’s the world should limit emis- Cape Town during the 1960s, amazing array of products sions to annually if rising ghg from where he graduated B. and services. We are smart concentrations, temperature Mus. in 1968 and later M. enough to know this is a and damages are to be Mus. After a brief period at the patently unfair deal unless slowed and stabilised. Royal College of Music in we offer something of great London in 1970, he played as As if that wasn’t bad enough, value along with those little Principal Viola in the Ulster Dr. Thomas Barnett2 in U.S. pieces of paper. Orchestra in Belfast, the Naval Institute, 2002 (January That product is a strong Gulbenkian Orchestra in issue, pp. 53-56) under the U.S. Pacific Fleet, which Lisbon, the CAPAB Orchestra title ‘Asia: The Military-Market squares the transaction in Cape Town and then as a Link’ clearly foresees that this nicely.” section player in the London little ‘deficit’ ensures we’re all Philharmonic Orchestra in the on our way to Tuvalu . . . . . Is it any wonder the US 1980s. Intermittently through- Government slipped that little He says: - out this period he wrote music clause in just before the for various ensembles includ- “The good news is that original Kyoto meeting in ing two prize-winning orches- there’s plenty of fossil fuel December 1997 which estab- tral ballet scores. to go around. Confirmed oil lished that military emissions

204 It was while searching for a In 1998 he won the Andrew subject for a musical in 1988 Lees Memorial Award with the that stories of the death of the following citation: “Aubrey Brazilian social activist Chico Meyer, almost single- Mendez led him to join the UK handedly and with minimal Green Party in 1989 and then resources, has made an to co-found the Global Com- extraordinary impact on the mons Institute (GCI) in Lon- negotiations on the Climate don in 1990. Change Treaty, one of the most important of our time, He spent the next decade through his campaign for a contributing to the policy goal of equal per capita working group of the Intergov- emissions, which is now the ernmental Panel on Climate official negotiating position of Change (IPCC), and cam- many governments, and is paigning at the United Nations gaining acceptance in devel- negotiations on climate oped and developing coun- change to win acceptance of tries alike.” In 2000 he re- the glob-al ethic of ‘equity and ceived the Schumacher survival’ and the policy frame- Award for the continuation of work known as ‘Contraction these efforts. and Convergence’ (C&C). C&C is now becoming the most widely supported global framework within which to resolve policies and measures to avert dangerous climate change.

2002 - GCI PUBLICATIONTIONTION “Wilton Park Slide Show” – With Notes

Available at: www.gci.org.uk/articles

205 August 2 - Frontline Magazine - The Hindu For climate justice If the world is to be saved that we collectively possess is will be allowed to develop from an environmental finite and limited. The only their economies by increasing catastrophe, it is essential enduring basis by which this their emission to that level. for the civil society in space can be shared is to This convergence target will Third World countries to divide it equally among all have to be reached in a given take an active role in human beings. Any method time-period and, thereafter, pressuring their govern- that is established on the will decline uniformly for all ments and in moulding strength of the present power countries. opinion to move in the relations, and is thus iniqui- The per capita emission and direction of a solution tous, cannot be sustained for the time for convergence will based on the principle of long. have to be negotiated interna- equal atmospheric rights It is this realisation that has tionally, taking into account for all. made far-sighted persons the safe levels of CO2 concen-

“ .. . French Environment Minister Dominique Voynet support the strategy of contraction and convergence. According to this strategy, all countries will be allotted entitlements to pollute on the basis of a single per capita allowance. While the rich coun- tries will have to contract their emission levels to reach this target, the poor countries will be allowed to develop their economies by increasing their emission to that level. This convergence target will have to be reached in a given time-period and, thereafter, will decline uniformly for all countries. The per capita emission and the time for convergence will have to be negotiated internationally, taking into account the safe levels of CO2 con- centration that can be allowed in the atmosphere. If these entitlements are permitted to be traded, developing countries can get substantial resources as a matter of right and not as handouts. These resources would help them leapfrog into clean technologies for power and transport and for overall development as well, without having to worry about losing their bargaining positions.”

The final part of a three-part such as French Environment tration that can be allowed in series. Minister Dominique Voynet the atmosphere. If these entitlements are permitted to THE atmosphere, like the air support the strategy of con- be traded, developing coun- we breathe, belongs to every- traction and convergence. tries can get substantial one. It has now become According to this strategy, all resources as a matter of right obvious that the extent to countries will be allotted and not as handouts. These which it can be polluted by entitlements to pollute on the resources would help them carbon dioxide (CO2) and basis of a single per capita leapfrog into clean technolo- other greenhouse gases allowance. While the rich gies for power and transport (GHG) in the course of our countries will have to contract and for overall development normal living has a ceiling; their emission levels to reach as well, without having to that is, the pollution space this target, the poor countries worry about losing their

206 bargaining positions. able to it. For instance, ac- coal-producing country and cording to researchers at the coal accounts for 70 per cent A sub-text to this argument is Lawrence Berkeley National of fossil emissions. However, that within countries, de- Laboratory in California, China at less than 0.3 metric tonnes pressed sections of people has reduced its emission by of carbon emission per head, have an ecological debt that 17 per cent since the mid- it is the lowest for any large the affluent sections owe 1990s, a period when its country, far lower than the them and they have a right to gross domestic product in- global average of 1.13 tonnes claim it. A study by the Indira creased by 36 per cent. Said and one-twentieth of the U.S. Gandhi Institute for Develop- Zhou Dadi, Director of the per capita emission. ment Research found that in Energy Research Institute, 1989-90 the per capita carbon There have been several China: “Strategically, we have emission of the top 10 per studies of the impact of global adopted climate change as an cent of the urban population warming on India, especially important concern in our in India was 13 times that of on food production and on energy planning. Before 1980, the bottom half of the rural coastal areas. The United China’s energy use increased population. It is the poverty- Nations Environment Pro- 1.6 times as fast as the stricken Dalit woman who gramme (UNEP) lists India economy. But in the last 20 fetches headloads among the 27 coun- of shrub from long tries that are most distances for the vulnerable to a rise day’s kitchen fire in sea level. A study and her children by the Jawaharlal who pore over their Nehru University in books in the glow of 1993 found that a the kerosene lamp one-metre rise in who have saved this sea level would planet from a worse inundate approxi- disaster than it mately 5,800 square faces now. If the kilometres of coastal excluded and op- area and directly pressed sections in affect 70 lakh peo- the Third World ple; the economic countries demand loss would range their rightful share from Rs.2,30,300 of equitably distrib- crores for Mumbai to years, energy use has grown uted CDM (Clean Develop- Rs.400 crores for Balasore, at at less than half the rate of ment Mechanism) funds for current prices. India is already the economy... Our per capita their own development, it reeling under weather disas- energy use is just one-tenth could lead to social dynamics ters of unprecedentedly large of that in the United States that are different from what scales. Most environmentalists and one-seventh of that in these societies are used to at link this to global warming. A Europe. Americans drive cars present. heat wave in Orissa in 1998, while we ride bicycles; you the hottest year of the millen- But, for now, the dominant live in houses while we live in nium, claimed 650 lives; the discourse in the dominant dormitories.” next year, 10,000 people country is focussed on the India has also done much to perished in Orissa’s worst-ever ‘non-responsible’ emissions by conserve, though its record is floods. the populous developing not as spectacular as that of nations. Green movements in This year’s heat wave was China. India is now the that country are quick to point worse than that of 1998 and world’s fifth largest fossil-fuel out to their government that it claimed more than 600 lives in CO2-emitting country; the is the countries that are non- Andhra Pradesh alone, despite emissions having grown at 6 accountable to Kyoto that are prior warning to the people per cent a year since 1950. It behaving more responsibly and some preparations. A is the world’s third largest than those that are account- UNEP team that went to the

207 Himalayas recently found that very low priority and the many and mighty. One silver a glacier near the first camp public awareness of the issues lining is that the extremism of that Edmund Hillary and involved is also abysmally low the Bush variety is creating a Tenzing Norgay set up during as compared to the awareness backlash of public opinion and their conquest of the Everest levels in the industrialised pulling together environmen- in 1953 had receded by 5 km countries. Besides, when push talists for vigorous joint ac- and that a series of small comes to shove, the only tions. An example is the ponds had now formed a big superpower of the world will largest ever paid media cam- lake. not hesitate to apply open paign by any environmental pressure on national govern- group during August and The lack of sufficient data and ments, using its leverage. In September 2001 in the United research on the impacts of fact, some non-governmental States. Americans in 23 States climate change has prevented organisations (NGOs) in the were educated by a clutch of India, and other developing North, such as the World environment groups on how countries, from playing an Resources Institute in Wash- their Congressmen listened assertive role in global nego- ington D.C., want international when (oil) money talked, how tiations. India cannot hope to financial institutions to use they voted for $30 billion in make the kind of investment aid, loan and trade to pres- taxpayer handouts to oil, coal that the U.S. has made. (Two sure developing countries to and nuclear power companies, national laboratories in the adopt climate-friendly, and how they “voted time and U.S. have launched a $20 obviously costly, technologies. time again for more pollution, million project, with 1.5 Thus one cannot assume that and more global warming” teraflops of computing power, the Indian government will instead of for lower energy to evaluate scientifically the automatically act in such a bills and a healthier environ- policy options on climate way as to protect the long- ment, how they should not change.) Also, the ‘expert’ term interests of the people. now allow their Senator to do advice India gets on policy the same when the bills come matters is less than neutral. In So, if the world is to be saved up for approval. a briefing paper sent by the from a looming catastrophe Centre for Science and Envi- and international and inter- There is a need for similar ronment to the Members of generational justice is to be concerted action by the NGOs Parliament in India before The maintained, it is essential for of the South. This need not Hague conference, the late civil society in Third World be, and probably ought not to Anil Agarwal pointed out that countries to take an active be, limited to advocacy of the Bill Clinton’s principal environ- role in pressuring their own equal-rights-to-the-air-above mental adviser Kathleen governments and in moulding principle; it can extend to the McGinty stationed herself at world opinion to move in the issue of reparations for the the Tata Energy Research direction of a swift ‘equal damage caused to the envi- Institute in Delhi for a year rights for all’ solution. In this ronment in the past. Even as and went round the country effort, they need to contend voices are raised now for to paint an alluring picture of with, and engage in dialogue, reparations for slavery and the CDM, without pointing out even well-meaning NGOs in colonialism, just recompense its inequity in the absence of the North, which, in their for environmental imperialism established entitlements. anxiety to get some action off is bound to become a major According to him, the Confed- the ground, are prone to seek issue several years hence. But eration of Indian Industry accommodation from the raising it now has the advan- (CII) was among those who nations in the South. Attend- tage of driving home the fell for her argument. It is ing a conference of northern equal rights message with only to be expected that NGOs on climate change, an greater force. In fact, the private industry everywhere activist from the South found current environmental intran- will be short-term-oriented. to her dismay that the ques- sigence of the U.S. President tion equity ranked lowest in can be countered by taking The government and the the delegates’ priorities. him to court for the economic politicians too have little costs of the disasters faced by incentive to take a long-term The forces ranged against a the poorer countries because view. In fact, the subject gets credible and just solution are

208 of climate change - up to $9.5 a Canadian smelter plant Tuvalu’s new Prime Minister trillion over the next two damaging crops and livestock has signalled his intention to decades, according to one in Washington State in the sue. estimate by development U.S. Timms says: “The next The principle of contraction groups. The Red Cross sug- message G-7 heads of state and convergence is gaining gests in a report that poor receive from their poorer ground, albeit very slowly. The countries could seek legal cousins may not be an invita- Environment Ministers of compensation to pay for tion to a reception, or a plea Denmark, the Netherlands reconstruction through an for more aid. It may be much and the United Kingdom have “international tort climate more abrupt: ‘We’ll see you in voiced their personal support court”. It says: “Increasingly court for global warming.’ A to it; Britain’s Royal Commis- sophisticated analysis of concrete step towards this sion on Environmental Pollu- climate change means that was taken recently when two tion, in a report on climate ignorance of the conse- dozen lawyers representing change published recently, quences of industrial con- environmental groups met in has endorsed it. However, it is sumption and pollution can be Washington to explore the nowhere near claiming serious no defence for inaction.” possibility of class-action attention at Kyoto discussions. lawsuits against the U.S. In a recent article in The A large part of the responsibil- government and corporations Guardian, Stephen Timms of ity to see that this happens on behalf of Tuvalu - whose the Global Economy Pro- rests on the NGOs in India 10,000 residents are emigrat- gramme at the New Econom- and in the other countries of ing to New Zealand as the ics Foundation points to the the South. island nation faces total establishment of a principle in submergence by 2050 - or the C.E. Karunakaran is an a U.S. court that no State had Maldives or Jamaica, like engineer who has studied the right to cause injury to those filed by the Holocaust and worked on issues another by emitting “fumes”. victims or those filed against relating to carbon credit This was in a case relating to the tobacco companies. trading.

August 23 - Church Times Anglicans urge greater concern for the earrthearrthearrth by Vanya Walker-Leigh in Goulburn, the Rt Revd George Anglican Consultative Council South Africa Browning, told one of the meeting, in Hong Kong, in sessions. He was echoing the September. BISHOPS attending the Angli- Archbishop of Canterbury’s can Congress on the Steward- message to the Congress, that ship of Creation at Bishop warns of “desper- “We have an inescapable Hartebeestpoort Dam, near ate plight” obligation to cherish the living Johannesburg, this week, planet entrusted to us by our Bishop Browning’s appeal was urged the Anglican Commun- Creator.” endorsed by the Bishop of ion to take a stronger stand Hereford, the Rt Revd John on climate change and related The Congress, which ends Oliver, who is the Church of environmental issues. today, intends to submit a England’s spokesman on statement to the forthcoming “Christian theology drives us. environmental affairs in the World Summit on Sustainable As partners with God in Jesus, House of Lords. “We are in a Development, which begins we Christians are responsible desperate plight as regards next Monday in Johannes- for the whole created order,” global warming and climate burg. It will also submit a the Bishop of Canberra & change. The planet is going to policy document to the next

209 the buffers very much sooner Magaliesberg mountains, near than people realise,” the Pretoria. The daily eucharists Bishop said. were held in a mixture of English and one of South He strongly supported the Africa’s nine native languages. “Contraction and Conver- gence” (C & C) approach to cutting emissions of green- Calls to prayer and action house gas. This meets US The World Bank on Wednes- concerns, “and is supported day urged a more global by China, India, France, approach to development. In Belgium, Sweden, the Euro- its World Development Re- pean Parliament, the Non- port, it urged rich nations to aligned Group, and South stop spending $1 billion a day Africa”, he said. “I hope the on agricultural subsidies, to Anglican Communion will accelerate the transfer of new formally endorse C & C in technologies, and to provide Hong Kong.” more aid, particularly to sub- A grim picture of the present Saharan Afria. This would help state of world agriculture and the poorest in the world boost rural poverty emerged in their incomes. presentations to sessions on New alliances were needed, at food-security and water. Peter national and global levels, to Mann, a former Benedictine address these issues, the monk and a director of World World Bank said. Govern- Hunger Year, said that the ments must act now to avert world needed to make a a growing risk of damage to transition from “the the environment. agribusiness-dominated ‘industrial agriculture’, which is Four Christian environmental destroying soil quality, and organisations have joined in rural livelihoods”. urging Christians to support the Summit with prayer. There The co-ordinator of the are briefings, for those inter- emerging Anglican Environ- ested, at ment Network, Canon Eric www.churchesearthsummit.org.uk, Beresford, a geneticist, said and also a “Creation Care” that, though it was suggested prayer that they hope that genetically modified (GM) churches will use in services crops might feed the world, on Sunday, which is the eve of their yields were 15-20 per the Summit. cent below those of non-GM crops. The earth’s produce and species must not be patented for corporate profit, he said. The 50 participants from 20 Churches had gathered on Monday at the Good Shepherd Roman Catholic Retreat Cen- tre, a hillside collection of small African thatched build- ings set in gardens, with a panoramic view of the Hartebeespoort dam and the

210 August - Open Democracy Meyer corrects Müüüller on C&C

Benito Müller : the fair per capita solution international accounting over time. figures. “As for the issue of an equitable distribution of Depending on the speed of It is not accurate to say (global) emission targets, the convergence and the that C&C “starts out with a there have been, as you contraction, it is thus not ‘grand-fathering’ allocation, know, numerous proposals. only likely to impose initial essentially a uniform per- reduction targets on even centage target across the One of the best known is the least developed coun- board”. the ‘contraction and con- tries, but it deprives them vergence’ model suggested From day one, C&C re- of their legitimate surplus by the Global Commons moves grandfather rights at permits at the time when Institute.” a rate that is determined by they need these most in the disparate initial per their quest to reach a path capita emissions levels Open Democracy : of sustainable development internationally, in favour of – namely now. “This is based on the idea equal rights by an agreed that, ultimately, everyone In contrast, I think it would date. in the world has an equal be feasible, affordable, fair However, this process right, as it were, to emit and sensible to give every- would apply the principles greenhouse gases; and one in the world an equal of C&C at rates that have that the expression of this per capita allocation now. been negotiated by the right must be limited, so Each person would also parties themselves, rather that the aggregate amount have the right to trade than those pre-determined of emissions is safe for the emissions so that the poor and handed down by ex- global climate . . . . “ low emitters could benefit perts and observers. from this legitimate asset . . Benito Müller : . . . “ If the international commu- nity commands an immedi- “In my view, the main ate convergence within a drawback with ‘contraction Aubrey Meyer: staged contraction, the and convergence’ is that it “In fact, the C&C model model will calculate it. starts out with a remains possibly the only It is not GCI’s role to decree ‘grandfathering’ allocation calculating device put the content of decisions – essentially a uniform forward so far that not only that can only be reached by percentage target across embraces exactly what negotiation, but it is our the board – and only Benito is arguing for, but role to point out their moves towards presumably which is capable of calculat- detailed consequences in ing in full the necessary the light of the C&C model.”

Full articles at: -

http://www.opendemocracy.net/forum/ document_details.asp?CatID=99&DocID=1638&DebateID=177

and

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211 September 3 - The Times Capitalism is best way to save the planet Economic View by Anatole present and the immediate events of the early 21st Kaletsky future, leaving the long-term century, eclipsing even Sep- to look after itself. The reason tember 11. THE Johannesburg summit on for doing this is not a con- sustainable development has Firstly, the summit has made tempt for future generations, been widely ridiculed for progress on such urgent but quite the contrary. Any emitting more hot air than a environmental issues as fish attempt to look many decades coal-fired power station. Tony stocks, deforestation and ahead and then to inflict our Blair’s African speeches have water supplies. The damage flawed ideas on future gen- certainly left us no wiser to human welfare from erations, is an exercise in about his personal plan to overfishing, uncontrolled overweaning arrogance. save the world. Yet behind all logging and water pollution the empty rhetoric, the cynical Moreover, the experience of has gone so far and has photo-opportunities and the the past two centuries sug- become so palpable that bureaucratic self-indulgence, gests that the generations of these problems easily pass some enormously important the future will be infinitely the eleventh-hour test sug- issues have been opened up cleverer than we are. They gested above. Secondly, and for discussion in the past two will devise solutions to their even more importantly, the weeks. problems with an ingenuity summit has brought climate that we cannot begin to change to the centre of atten- In saying this, I do not mean imagine today. It is not just tion. It could mark the start of to contribute to the hysteria lazy and selfish to leave the a period of much more inten- about mankind’s survival and solution of many long-term sive government intervention the threat posed by global problems to future genera- and business activity on warming to life on earth. Still tions; it is rational. It is right carbon emissions and energy less do I believe that “Africa is to delay difficult decisions as policy, at least outside the US. a scar on the conscience of long as possible in the hope our world and the world has a Despite my general scepticism that “something will turn up” duty to heal it”, to quote Mr about long-term planning, I and only to make painful Blair. think such action could be choices at the eleventh hour. beneficial, not only to our Global warming may well be a Having laid out this sceptical children’s environmental serious threat to human credo, let me jump straight to future, but also to our own welfare. The poverty, disease my personal conclusions from prosperity and safety and and barbarism rampant in Johannesburg. The homilies even to global economic much of Africa is certainly an on aid, disease and sanitation growth. The idea that trying indictment of the way that will be of little value until we to control the human contri- almost all African countries see dramatic political changes bution to climate change have been run in the colonial in the poor countries them- could be an economic oppor- era and the post-colonial selves. The fact is that com- tunity, and not just a sacrifice, decades. But the outside petent and honest economic has long been the missing world has neither the moral management, plus the avoid- element in the global warming authority nor the will to stop ance of wars, are infinitely debate. The fact is that a Africans committing mass more important conditions for concerted global campaign suicide through Aids. The true development than any con- against climate change could scale of climate change and ceivable inflow of external aid. present opportunities of at its effect on mankind’s future, But turning from the pieties least three kinds. will be unclear for many on poverty to the environmen- decades, probably until most The first benefit would be tal negotiations which were of us are dead. scientific and technological the summit’s real issue, Jo- progress, as moribund indus- Both as an economist and a hannesburg could go down in tries such as carmaking and human being I have always history as one of the major energy extraction were given believed in focusing on the

212 incentives to move to the stuck in commodity busi- cutting edge of technological nesses with ever-dwindling progress. Government subsi- profit margins, few competi- dies for energy research could tive advantages and a dino- The second benefit would be have far more productive saur image among investors, geopolitical stabilisation, as spin-offs than defence and leading to extremely low stock fundamentalist Islamic coun- space programmes. It has market valuations. They tries such as Saudi Arabia and always struck me that car would be far better off emu- Iran lost their grip on the manufacturers and oil compa- lating computer companies world’s jugular through the oil nies reveal extraordinary and competing in the develop- price. managerial incompetence ment of new technology. The third benefit would be when they oppose govern- Government regulations to greater trade integration and ment regulations to reduce reduce emissions would help the possibility of a moderate emissions, increase fuel them to limit competition, redistribution of income from economy and develop new thereby increasing, rather rich countries to poor. zero-emission engines. These than stunting, their profits. To see why this might be so, companies are at present

213 consider the ambitious target mentalists have all, for their Kyoto targets at several for reducing carbon own reasons, emphasised the hundred billion dollars, a price emmissions suggested two economic sacrifices required he regards as unacceptable, years ago by Britain’s Royal to control climate change. We what hope could there possi- Commission on Environmental hear constantly of the limits to bly of making any worthwhile Pollution. Its proposal was to growth implied by energy progress? But what Mr Blair reduce emissions by 60 per conservation and the mind- has failed to point out in his cent by 2050, possibly boggling trillions of dollars messianic fervour, is that the through an international that will have to be sacrificed ambitious 60 per cent target agreement called Contraction either to reduce global warm- is only due to be achieved by and Convergence, which has ing or to cope with its de- 2050. The magic of compound been much discussed in struction. interest could make this quite Johannesburg. This would feasible without any undue Yet all these horrific figures give every coun- economic sacri- try a quota for fice. According to carbon emissions, To see why this might be so, con- the authoritative based on its report published sider the ambitious target for reducing population and in February this would allow carbon emmissions suggested two years year by the DTI’s countries to trade ago by Britain’s Royal Commission on inter-departmen- these emission Environmental Pollution. Its proposal was tal analysts group rights. This would to reduce emissions by 60 per cent by for Britain to gradually reduce 2050, possibly through an international meet the 60 per worldwide carbon cent target would emission and agreement called Contraction and Con- require a reduc- encourage the vergence, which has been much dis- tion of 4.3 per development of cussed in Johannesburg. This would give cent a year in the more efficient every country a quota for carbon emis- intensity of car- technologies. In sions, based on its population and would bon emissions, the meantime, it allow countries to trade these emission assuming GDP would ensure a growth continued flow of funds rights. This would gradually reduce at its long-term from rich coun- worldwide carbon emission and encour- trend rate of 2.25 tries to poor age the development of more efficient per cent. ones, which, technologies. In the meantime, it would This would be because of their ensure a flow of funds from rich countries only slightly lower levels of car higher than the ownership and to poor ones, which, because of their historic trend of industrialisation, lower levels of car ownership and indus- carbon intensity would have trialisation, would have surplus emission reduction, which surplus emission rights. has been running rights. at 3 per cent a This Contraction year since 1970. and Convergence concept, are meaningless unless pre- Using a slightly different illustrated in the charts above sented in context. For exam- methodology, the same report from the website of the Global ple, Mr Blair noted in Africa concludes that the cost of Commons Institute, is only that the Kyoto protocol would reducing carbon emissions by one of many market-based only reduce greenhouse 60 per cent in 2050 and then proposals designed to create emissions by 1 per cent, stabilising them from that incentives for big emissions whereas the British Govern- point onwards would be cuts without unduly disupting ment believes that a 60 per equivalent to between 0.2 per global economic growth. cent reduction is needed. cent and 1.5 per cent of GDP. Given that President Bush has Yet politicians, business lob- Even in the absence of firm put the cost of meeting the bies and anti-growth environ- evidence on the precise scale

214 or effects of global warming, this would be a very small price to pay for the potential benefits of reducing air pollu- tion, not to mention the political and technological breakthroughs mentioned above. In Johannesburg, the concept that global action on climate change could be an economi- cally beneficial exercise, instead of an immense sacri- fice began to make an ap- pearance. This was partly because many environmental organisations started to engage in a more constructive economic dialogue with busi- nesses and governments instead of trying to turn the global warming issue into a weapon in a global war against capitalism and modern science. Modern science and market economics, far from being the enemy of the environment, are by far the most powerful mechanisms ever developed for achieving human objec- tives. If the world needs to be saved, they are by far the best tools available to man- kind. It is time to put them to good use.

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