NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR-AOML-101/NOS-NCCOS-161 Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model Development for the Florida Keys/ Dry Tortugas Coastal Marine Ecosystem MARine Estuarine goal Setting (MARES) for South Florida Produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Cooperation with Federal, State, Local, Academic, Non-Government Organizations, and Industry Partners April 2013 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Suggested Citation Entire document: Nuttle, W.K., and P.J. Fletcher (eds.). 2013. Integrated conceptual ecosystem model development for the Florida Keys/Dry Tortugas coastal marine ecosystem. NOAA Technical Memorandum, OAR‑AOML‑101 and NOS‑NCCOS‑161. Miami, Florida. 91 pp. For appendices (as an example): Kelble, C.R., J.N. Boyer, G.L. Hitchcock, P.B. Ortner, and W.K. Nuttle. 2013. Water column. In Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model Development for the Florida Keys/Dry Tortugas Coastal Marine Ecosystem, W.K. Nuttle and P.J. Fletcher (eds.). NOAA Technical Memorandum, OAR‑AOML‑101 and NOS‑NCCOS‑161. Miami, Florida. 29‑40. Acknowledgments This paper is a result of research under the MARine and Estuarine goal Setting (MARES) for South Florida Project funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (Coastal Ocean Program), under award NA08OAR4320889 to the University of Miami, NA09NOS4780224 to Nova Southeastern University, NA09NOS4780225 to the University of Massachusetts Amherst, NA09NOS4780226 to the National Audubon Society, NA‑ 09NOS4780227 to Florida Gulf Coast University, NA09NOS4780228 to Florida International Uni‑ versity, and to the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. We thank Gail Derr of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory for her support in developing this technical memorandum. Disclaimer NOAA does not approve, recommend, or endorse any proprietary pr oduct or material mentioned in this document. No reference shall be made to NOAA or to this document in any advertising or sales promotion which would indicate or imply that NOAA approves, recommends, or endorses any proprietary product or proprietary material herein or which has as its purpose any intent to cause directly or indirectly the advertised product to be used or purchased because of this document. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the view of the funding agency. NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR-AOML-101/NOS-NCCOS-161 Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model Development for the Florida Keys/Dry Tortugas Coastal Marine Ecosystem Subregional Principal Investigators: Contributing MARES Project Staff: Jerald S. Ault1 Pamela J. Fletcher8 Joseph N. Boyer2 Felimon C. Gayanilo1 James W. Fourqurean3 Grace M. Johns9 Christopher R. Kelble4 Donna J. Lee10 Thomas N. Lee1 Frank E. Marshall11 Vernon R. Leeworthy5 William K. Nuttle12 Diego Lirman1 David K. Loomis6 Jerome J. Lorenz7 Peter B. Ortner1 1 University of Miami, Miami, Florida 2 Plymouth State University, Plymouth, New Hampshire 3 Florida International University, Miami, Florida 4 NOAA‑Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida 5 AANO ‑Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Key West, Florida 6 East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina 7 National Audubon Society, Tavernier, Florida 8 Florida Sea Grant, Gainesville, Florida 9 Hazen and Sawyer, Hollywood, Florida 10 DJL Environmental Economic Consulting, Honolulu, Hawaii 11 Cetacean Logic Foundation, Inc., New Smyrna Beach, Florida 12 Eco‑Hydrology, Ontario, Canada April 2013 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE Dr. Rebecca A. Blank, Acting Secretary Dr. Holly Bamford, Assistant Administrator NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION OFFICE OF OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH Dr. Kathryn D. Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Dr. Robert S. Detrick, Assistant Administrator Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator This page intentionally left blank. Florida Keys/Dry Tortugas Coastal Marine Ecosystem Preface In a very real sense, the MARine and Estuarine goal Setting shared understanding of the fundamental characteristics (MARES) project is an ambitious sociological experiment. and processes that regulate and shape the ecosystem into a Its overall goal is to “reach a science‑based consensus about conceptual diagram (MARES infographic). the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating The second step is to build upon these diagrams to articulate processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is conceptual ecosystem models that reference the existing both sustainable and capable of providing diverse ecosystem scientific knowledge. Development of the conceptual models services.” The approach taken in pursuing this goal is employs a framework (DPSER: Drivers/Pressures/State/ based on the hypothesis that scientists participating in a Ecosystem Services/Responses) that explicitly incorporates systematic process of reaching consensus can more directly information about the effects that people have upon and and effectively contribute to critical decisions being made the benefits they gain from the ecosystem. We refer to by policy makers and by natural resource and environmental the conceptual models developed with this approach as management agencies. This report is an intermediate Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Models (ICEMs) because product of this consensus‑building process. people are treated as an integral part of the ecosystem, in South Florida is the site of the world’s largest and most contrast to the conceptual models developed previously for expensive ecosystem restoration effort: the Comprehensive CERP. Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). While a great many The third step in the MARES process is to identify natural system scientists have participated in CERP, it subregional indicators that characterize conditions in the is difficult or impossible to determine whether their ecosystem, both societal and ecological, and the gaps in our contributions have made any difference. Human dimension existing knowledge. Identification of these indicators builds scientists (economists, sociologists, cultural anthropologists, on the consensus understanding contained in the ICEMs, etc.) have been given only limited opportunity to participate. which synthesize existing information on the ecosystem. Moreover, CERP has focused upon the South Florida peninsula itself, not upon the surrounding coastal marine The indicators being developed by the MARES project ecosystem. This is despite significant, well documented, are combined into a set of regional indices that can be deleterious environmental changes occurring in the incorporated into coastal ecosystem score cards. Imple‑ surrounding coastal ecosystem. menting a score card process, such as has been done for the freshwater wetlands in CERP based upon such a set of The MARES project is an attempt to make science more indices, would rigorously document trajectories towards (or relevant to the ecosystem restoration effort in South Florida away from) a sustainable and satisfactory condition. Where and to facilitate ecosystem‑based management (EBM) in specific seemingly critical indices cannot be calculated due the region’s coastal marine ecosystem. The project is funded to a lack of data, the information gaps identified thereby by the Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research, a can be used by science agencies (e.g., NOAA, the National program of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. Science Foundation, or U.S. Geological Survey) to prioritize The first step in the MARES process is to convene experts their external and internal allocation of research resources. (both natural system and human dimension scientists), The ICEMs and indicators organize scientific information stakeholders, and agency representatives for the three sub‑ about the relationship between people and the environment regions of the South Florida coastal marine ecosystem. and the trade‑offs that managers face in their decisions. Each group of experts is charged with drawing their MARES—MARine and Estuarine goal Setting for South Florida (Last Update—October 1, 2013 7:14 AM) www.sofla-mares.org | i This page intentionally left blank. Florida Keys/Dry Tortugas Coastal Marine Ecosystem Table of Contents Preface ...............................................................................................................................................i Figures and Tables ............................................................................................................................v Acronyms .........................................................................................................................................vi Abstract...........................................................................................................................................vii Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 Three Distinct Subregions within the South Florida Coastal Marine Ecosystem ...........................1 Oceanographic Processes Connect Subregions .............................................................................2 Building a Foundation for Ecosystem‑Based Management ...........................................................4 The MARES Model Framework...................................................................................................5