Winter 2008 The Yorkshire and Humber Regional Review 17
flows between local authority districts Yorkshire and which are inflated for certain missing values using patient re-registration counts collated from the NHS Central Humber’s internal Register (NHSCR). Are the patient register data robust and migration exchanges reliable? In the past, one of the main drawbacks indentified with the NHSCR data was the underrepresentation of Has the region experienced significant changes in its aggregate migration certain groups – in particular young exchanges with other parts of the country in the twenty-first century? Is the region males who may put off re-registering with losing human capital to the south in net terms? Which regions does the region gain a new doctor after they move home. most migrants from and lose most migrants to? This article provides answers to Comparison of age-specific in-migration these questions by using Office of National Statistics time series data extracted from and out-migration data from the patient patient registers held by health authorities. registers and the 2001 Census for a similar time period allows a reliability assessment to be made (Figure 1). The greatest differences occur in the younger age groups with a difference of responses from policy makers in terms of around 2,000 individuals estimated resource provision (particularly housing) migrating into Yorkshire and the Humber in in the south, but also increases in funding the 16-19 age group – the patient register from central government directed data estimating fewer flows than might be towards northern areas (particularly expected according to the Census. cities) which has intended to improve Whilst there are these small socio-economic conditions in these areas differences, the close correlation between and thus reduce some of the exodus to the census and patient register data Adam Dennett and John Stillwell the south. across most age groups gives confidence University of Leeds This article considers internal that, in other years, propensities and migration trends for Yorkshire and the patterns shown by the patient register Humber in recent years and linkages (especially for older age groups) are hilst international migration has with other regions in England and Wales likely to be relatively accurate. tended to grab the recent news are examined at a time when the global Wheadlines with the influx of economic downturn of recent months is workers to many regions in the UK from likely to result in a major decline in Time series migration trends the Eastern European accession (A8) migration propensities in the future. countries and a steady drip of refugees So what trends in migration has Yorkshire and asylum seekers, internal migration and the Humber experienced over the has received relatively less attention, Patient register data last few years? Figure 2 shows the net despite doing far more in many places to migration balances between Yorkshire change the structure and composition of Data on internal migration in the UK are and Humber and the other nine regions local populations. not extensive for inter-censal years, but in England and Wales between 1999 and The continued north-south drift of the Office of National Statistics (ONS) 2006. Where the rate is positive, population observed in the latter half of now produces statistics based on Yorkshire and the Humber has been a the twentieth century (Stillwell et al., comparison of the patient registers from net gainer of population from the region 1992; Champion, 1999), partly resulting one year to the next held by health in question; where it is negative, is has from the decline of traditional industrial authorities across the country. This been a net loser. activities, has lead to both reactionary procedure provides data on migration In 1999, Yorkshire and the Humber was gaining most migrants from the North East and losing most to the East Midlands. Over the eight year period 30000 shown in the graph, both the gains from In-migration to Yorkshire and Humber - 2001 Census the North East and the losses to the East In-migration to Yorkshire and Humber - Patient register data 25000 Midlands have decreased steadily so Out-migration to Yorkshire and Humber - 2001 Census that by 2006, the net gain from the North Out-migration to Yorkshire and Humber - Patient register data East has been eliminated whilst the loss 20000 to the East Midlands is well under half that of the 1999 level. 15000 There are, however, some notable changes in the net balances between
Total migrants Total the region and London, the South East 10000 and East of England. In 1999, Yorkshire and the Humber was a net loser of 5000 population to all of these regions, albeit only marginally. By 2002, this had 0 changed to a net gain, and by 2004 a 0-15 16-19 20-24 20-25 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ considerable net gain from all three. In Age Group fact in 2004 the region was gaining from all regions in the south as well as the Figure 1. Gross in and out-migration flows from the 2001 Census and patient registers North East. 18 The Yorkshire and Humber Regional Review Winter 2008
Whilst the region is starting to retain 0.3 more of its young adult migrants, many are still leaving and so the next question 0.2 North East is: where are they going to? Figure 4 North West gives an overview of net migration for a East Midlands combined 20-24 and 25-29 age group 0.1 West Midlands over the time period. East of England It is clear to see that London remains 0 the preferred location for young out- London migrants. This is no surprise as, for South East decades, the capital has pulled in
Net migration rate -0.1 South West young migrants from all regions in the Wales UK with its many tertiary and quaternary -0.2 sector job opportunities and socio- cultural attractions. -0.3 However, the strong pull of the capital 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 appears to have weakened between 2002 and 2005, when there was a sharp drop in the net out-migration balance Figure 2. Net migration rates between Yorkshire and Humber and other regions in England from Yorkshire and the Humber, and Wales, 1999-2006 although the net rate of loss had increased again by 2006. The South East, East of England and the North After the peak of 2004, this net gain The annual gains in the student age West have also been net gainers of 20- declined virtually across the board, but group, however, are offset by significant 29 year olds over this period, although most noticeably, the net gains from losses in the 20-24 and 25-29 age the latter has remained relatively steady, London once again reverted to a net groups. Thus, whilst the region attracts with the two more southern regions loss by 2006. large numbers of students to some of following a similar trend to London, So, since 2001, the region has had a the UK’s finest higher education albeit at a lower rate over all years. positive net migration balance, institutions, the bad news is that it fails It appears, then, that whilst the north- attracting more migrants in aggregate to retain a large number of these south drift of population has reversed at than it has been losing, but what are the students after they finish their studies. the aggregate level, for the younger demographic characteristics of the On the other hand, the good news is sections of the population, the south, migrants that have been attracted to the that the net losses of young adults in their and London especially, remain a big region over this period compared with twenties are gradually declining. Of pull, attracting more migrants from the those that are moving away? Figure 3 course, not all of the out-migrants will be Yorkshire and Humberside than are throws some light on this by breaking students, but a large number will be and drawn in the opposite direction down the total net flows into eight age any increased retention of young, although the rate has decreased from groups associated with key stages in economically active individuals (students the level it once was in 1999. the life course. or not), can be viewed positively. But if the region is losing so many It is clear to see that the largest (and Furthermore, when this reduction of migrants in their early twenties but still increasing) numbers of in-migrants are outmigration is set against a backdrop gaining migrants overall, who, apart found in the 16-19 age group. This is of gradually increasing in-migration in from student migrants, is the region unsurprising considering the number of the 16-19 group, it can be speculated attracting to create an overall net gain large higher education institutions that the region is beginning to provide and where are these migrants coming based in the region’s major cities and more opportunities for the young and from? These questions are partially the expansion in numbers attending economically active, encouraging fewer answered by Figure 3, which shows higher education. of them to move away. positive balances in the 0-15, 30-44 and 45-59 age groups. These are the groups that are contributing most to the net gain of 8000 population. It is rare for migrants between the ages of 0-15 to move without a parent, and it is common for 6000 1999 the parents of children aged 0-15 to fall 2000 4000 into the 30-44 age bracket. 2001 Figure 5 shows that from 2001 2000 2002 onwards, the region from which 2003 Yorkshire and Humber was gaining 0 2004 most 30-44 year olds (and 2005 correspondingly the 0-15 year olds – not
Net loss/gain -2000 2006 shown) is London. We may conjecture -4000 that many of these migrants are returnees, coming back to the region -6000 after an economically motivated move to the capital at some earlier stage in their -8000 careers. These moves may be in order 0-15 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ Total to raise families in a region where Age group housing and the general cost of living Figure 3. Yorkshire and Humber net migration losses and gains by age, 1999-2000 are cheaper than in the capital. Winter 2008 The Yorkshire and Humber Regional Review 19
Stillwell, J.C.H., Rees, P. and Boden, P. 1 (1992) Internal migration trends: an overview, In Stillwell, J.C.H., Rees, P. 0.5 North East and Boden, P. (eds.) Migration North West Processes and Patterns Volume 2: 0 East Midlands Population Redistribution in the West Midlands United Kingdom, Belhaven Press, -0.5 London, pp. 28-55. East of England London -1 South East
Net migration rate -1.5 South West Wales -2
-2.5 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Figure 4. Net migration rates between Yorkshire and Humber and other regions in England and Wales for the 20-29 age group, 1999-2006
Conclusions increasing rate of gain from London until 2004, perhaps representing a This analysis of regional migration flows return migration. data derived from patient register data Overall, these migration trends are has revealed a number of key trends in positive for Yorkshire and Humber; it is migration over the eight years from 1999 continuing to attract students and families to 2006. The region has transferred from whilst managing to retain more of its one of net loss to one of net gain over human capital. It is likely that this this period, but the gains have not been reduction in net out-migrants in their across all age ranges. twenties is the primary reason for the Over the period, the region has decline in the region’s population gained a large and increasing number turnover rate since 2000, its exchanges in of migrants in their late teens, the age both directions with other regions. We will group that comprises by far the largest explore the issue of turnover further in a number of migrants to the region. In subsequent paper that will focus on flows contrast, a significant number of taking place between local authority migrants in their twenties leave districts in the region since 1999. Yorkshire and Humber for regions in the south, particularly London, but a trend of key importance is the decline since References 1999 in the net losses on this age group. Yorkshire and Humber has seen a rise Champion, A.G. (1999) Migration and and fall in the net gains of migrants in British cities in the 1990s, National family ages over the period, with an Institute Economic Review, 170(1): 60-77.
0.6
0.4 North East North West East Midlands 0.2 West Midlands East of England 0 London South East
Net migration rate -0.2 South West Wales -0.4
-0.6 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Figure 5. Net migration rates between Yorkshire and Humber and other regions in England and Wales for the 30-44 age group, 1999-2006