Article Symposium.21 The Era of Evolutionary Governance

Walter Truett Anderson World Academy of Art and Science USA

The theme of evolutionary governance is arising intervene in the survival or reproductive selection of life often in the public discourse now- usually either in forms, either directly by activities such as selective regard to some aspect of biotechnology, or in connec- breeding or indirectly by modifying ecosystems. This tion with our modifications of ecosystems through cli- may (or may not) involve formal institutions of govern- mate change and other interventions. It is a favorite ment. The word "govern", from the Greek root kuber- subject of science fiction writers who weave marvelous netes, refers to steering or guidance, and not exclusively tales about future worlds and beings shaped by human to public policy; the actions of a farmer plowing a field artifice, and it frames the controversy between those or a couple planning a family may have evolutionary who welcome such power as somehow a part of human impacts. But now more and more of the activities with destiny and those who see it as unnatural, dangerous evolutionary impacts are entering the public arena, and even sacrilegious. becoming matters of political concern and controversy In this paper I intend to explore some aspects of leading to legislation, court decisions or global treaties.1 evolutionary governance present and future. But first I The concept of evolutionary governance sprang at need to point out that evolutionary governance has not me full-blown out of the pages of a 1968 issue of the only a present and a future, but a past- and a long one. Journal of Humanistic Psychology, in which I read a pas- Human beings have manipulated the breeding of other sage from a book (1957) by Julian Huxley. Sir Julian- first species and modified ecosystems for many thousands director-general of UNESCO, grandson of Charles of years- and what we are experiencing now is a disturb- Darwin's colleague T. H. Huxley- declared in no uncer- ing new encounter with an old dimension of the human tain terms: experience, one that people in the past either over- It is as if man had been suddenly appointed man- looked or regarded as simply a matter of improving on aging director of the biggest business of all, the busi- nature. This is shaped by a convergence of two develop- ness of evolution- appointed without being asked if he ments: (1) a rapid increase in human ability to manipu- wanted it, and without proper warning and preparation. late the genetic evolution of species and to modify What is more, he can't refuse the job. Whether he ecosystems, and (2) an increasing body of information wants it or not, whether he is conscious of what he is about the impacts of human action, especially in regard doing or not, he is in point of fact determining the to large-scale (including global-scale) ecological changes. future direction of evolution on this earth. That is his These force us to recognize the reality of evolutionary inescapable destiny and the sooner he realizes it and governance for the first time in human history- a recog- starts believing in it, the better for all concerned.2 nition that transforms our understanding of humanity's I cannot recall precisely what was my reaction to relationship to the Earth. It is an end of innocence. this statement. I had never heard such an assertion As a preliminary definition of evolutionary gover- before, and I was not altogether sure what it meant. I nance, I will identify it as any activity- deliberate or inad- was probably put off by its hearty masculine-by-prefer- vertent- by which human individuals or organizations ence language (this was about the time when we were

Journal of Futures Studies, November 2005, 10(2): 21 - 34 Journal of Futures Studies

becoming careful about that) and, since I was and fruit stones to supply familiar food for the deeply involved in the environmental move- Spanish settlers. One of those plants, sugar ment, offended by its assumption that it was all- cane (which had first been introduced to right for people to meddle with nature. But Europe by returning Crusaders) eventually there was something about its sense of convic- became a major commercial crop in the West tion and urgency that stayed with me. Indies. Meanwhile, the Spanish contribution to Some years later, in the mid-1970s, I the evolutionary project was carried westward began to understand at least a part of what by missionaries to Mexico and California who Huxley had been getting at -- and also to under- established crops of citrus fruits, figs, dates, stand something about the history of my own grapes, olives and alfalfa - all newcomers to the country that had been omitted from my educa- Western Hemisphere. tion. The English colonists who settled along the Atlantic seaboard also brought plants with them, and by the early 17th century the gardens The American Episode in Evolution of Massachusetts were growing cabbage, I was, at that time, writing an introductory turnips, spinach, peas and beans descended text book on American government, to be from seeds brought from England. In the fol- organized in three parts: history; government lowing century, Benjamin Franklin found many and politics; and public policy. useful vegetables and grains during his travels in My research for the first part included Europe, and Thomas Jefferson, experimenting works of "natural history" as well as the history with plants at his home in Monticello, imported of people and institutions, and it was there- in not only food crops but also Lombardy poplars books about the American experience with and silk trees. Animals as well as plants figured plants and animals and soil and water systems- prominently in the project. Among the passen- that I began to form a new understanding of my gers on the famous voyage of the Mayflower country's origin. I had known that the early were pigs and sheep and cattle, as well as Americans came from Europe and created new moths stowed away in woolen clothes. institutions and, eventually, a new nation. But I At the same time that new plants and ani- had not known that they also created new mals were being imported and bred, native ecosystem- indeed, rebuilt the land and trans- species- particularly those considered haz- formed its flora and fauna- and altered the terri- ardous to people, crops or domestic animals- tory. were being battled (sometimes to ) by They didn't know they were governing settlers. The young federal government also evolution, of course. The remodeling project undertook extensive programs of cutting inter- was well underway before Darwin was born. state canals, dredging coastal harbors and lay- But in another sense they did know what they ing out roads through the fields and forests. All were doing. They were transplanting European of this added up to a massive and irreversible civilization to the New World, and to do that transformation of the Eastern seaboard. they had to transplant the various life forms And, as settlement spread westward, so necessary to European-style agriculture, and to did what some have called the "biological colo- shape the land and water systems to make nization" of the American continent. Forests them more hospitable to farms, cities, and com- were cleared and fruit trees planted, fields merce. They were carrying out a large-scale plowed for farms, weeds and predators con- project of directed evolution - not following any trolled, domestic animals bred. In California, the single master plan, yet with a clear social con- most rapid changes of all took place following sensus on what needed to be done. the 1849 gold rush, as settlers by the thousands That project began soon after the discov- reproduced the familiar pattern of introducing ery of America. On his second voyage domestic species and exterminating native 22 Christopher Columbus carried seeds, clippings, ones, and also permanently altered the terrain The Era of Evolutionary Governance

of the gold country by methods such as One well-documented transition from hydraulic mining which washed away entire hill- food-gathering to plant agriculture took place sides. about 10,000 years ago at the north end of the All this, I learned later, was not a deviation Dead Sea. The people who inhabited that from the earlier course of human events. The region were an advanced civilization who American transformation only took place more already had well-built houses and a sophisticat- quickly and happened at a relatively recent ed social structure, and tools such as flint sickles stage of history- and is therefore better-docu- and stone mortars and pestles that they used to mented than the transformations of other conti- harvest and process grains. Then, as the climate nents by other peoples, centuries earlier. in the region became hotter, they made the I learned also that North and South transition to planting grain and cultivating it. America had been extensively remodeled by The warmer climate favored the annual species native populations long before the era of colo- of wild grains and legumes over the perennials. nization began. American Indians had burned The annuals had large seeds, protected inside forests to increase habitat for deer and other husks, that were able to survive the powerful favored game populations, built dams, cultivat- summer droughts and then germinate in the ed plants and- in California - even "farmed" the cool and rainy winters. Some food-gatherers native oak. observed this process and began to help it Modifying ecosystems is what people do; along each year by saving seeds when they har- it is only recently that we have begun to learn vested grains and then planting them in the the extent of it. next wet season. The shift from hunter-gatherer life to agriculture set in motion an ongoing series of further changes. Food supplies grew, and Ecological and populations increased. Changes in the Change genetic evolution of plants also resulted. Without any concept of breeding at first, the Even prehistoric human beings, as they primitive farmers tended to gather mutant vari- began to develop language, tools, and new eties that were easier to harvest and save. The social organizations, found ways to alter the ter- archaeological evidence indicates that, within a rains they inhabited. They also moved by imper- short period of time, the cultivated fields in the ceptible stages into animal breeding and plant Jordanian region were taken over completely by agriculture: hunting became husbandry, while the seed-retaining, fat-grained mutants. As agri- gathering became farming. And husbandry and culture developed there it spread northward farming are, no matter how primitive, forms of and soon wheat, barley, peas and beans were evolutionary governance; they involve modifica- being grown in Turkey and Mesopotamia, with tions of ecosystems, and manipulation of the corresponding impacts on ecosystems and on breeding of plants and animals. the evolution of local plants and animals. This happened, for example, when early hunters of ancestors of modern sheep began to live by following the herds rather than by ran- The Beginning of the End of domly pursuing individual animals - and then Innocence began to guide them into areas where they might graze under supervision and be protect- Such early modifications of species and ed from predators. The wild animals evolved ecosystems took place with little understanding into domestic ones, the hunters into shepherds. of how extensively they impacted the world, And countless impacts on the evolutionary but in the latter half of the nineteenth century a careers of other life forms result from the series of events led to a growing understanding changes that take place whenever an ecosystem of how biological change takes place - and how is invaded by herds of grazing animals. human actions contribute to it. 23 Journal of Futures Studies

The most historically significant of these drew on research by specialists in various fields events was the publication, in London in the such as hydrology and botany and wrote the year 1859, of Charles Darwin's Origin of Species. first general study of the extent of such modifi- Although mainly about evolution through natu- cations. In its time, Marsh's work had a power- ral selection, it was also about one kind of evo- ful impact in Europe and the United States, and lutionary governance -- the deliberate acts by is regarded as the inspiration for the early "con- which people modified domestic plants and ani- servationist" movement that emerged in the US, mals, creating new varieties that would never a forerunner of contemporary environmental- have emerged by pure or (to ism. use the term Darwin borrowed from Herbert Meanwhile, Charles Darwin's cousin Spencer) the "survival of the fittest". Many of Francis Galton was gaining converts to his idea these domesticated varieties were not at all fit that human beings ought to take evolution into to survive in their natural habitats, but served their own hands, to (as he put it) "further the admirably (with human protection) as crop ends of evolution more rapidly and with less plants, ornamentals, milk cows or racehorses. distress than if events were left to their own Darwin also noted one kind of "unconscious course". He proposed a deliberate program to selection", in which people often modified a improve the quality of the human species by sci- breed without any particular intent to do so; an entifically-directed breeding which would, he owner of hunting dogs, for example, might believed, result in a population of intelligent merely choose to breed what he considered his and gifted people. At first Galton thought the best animals, and would find out over time that agenda of what he came to call could his dogs were noticeably different from those of be carried out by a noncoercive system of vol- other owners. untary breeding, but soon he decided that it Darwin did not, however, grasp another would be better for the state to regulate repro- kind of "unconscious selection" that takes place duction- rank people by ability, permit the most when people modify ecosystems - by harvesting gifted people to have the most children and forests, for example - in ways that alter the sur- prohibit the least gifted from having any chil- vival prospects and the evolutionary directions dren at all.5 This idea- state-directed evolution- of species that inhabit it. There is a passage in is what people generally mean when they use the Origin in which he compared the sparse the term "eugenics". vegetation of a heath in Staffordshire to another The eugenics movement became area not far away that had been enclosed and immensely influential in the United States, then planted with Scotch fir trees. He referred to the filling up with new immigrants from Eastern heath as having "never been touched by the Europe and Mediterranean regions. Its political hand of man" although it had been touched agenda was not so much to improve the nation- rather heavily, several times over, by succeeding al pool as to prevent what Anglo-Saxon waves of woodcutters.3 Much of England was Americans feared to be the imminent deteriora- so thoroughly logged over by the thirteenth tion of it. It lead to sterilization of mental century that landowners imported trees from patients, laws restricting marriage between per- the Baltic area, forerunners to the reforestation sons classed as "eugenically unfit", and restric- from Scotland whose results Darwin observed.4 tive immigration policies. Eventually both the Such ecological changes were document- science and the politics of eugenics were dis- ed in another book - not nearly as well-remem- credited in the US, but by that time Adolf Hitler bered but in its own way equally disturbing to was establishing at eugenic a police state in prevailing assumptions - that was published five Germany, intended to bring forth a master race years later. Titled Man and Nature, or, Physical - and leading eventually to the mass execution Geography as Modified by Human Action, it of Jews, Gypsies, homosexuals and others was written by the American scholar George regarded as genetically inferior. 24 Perkins Marsh. Marsh, an independent scholar, The reaction against such excesses has The Era of Evolutionary Governance

now reached the point that all kinds of develop- bioethicists fear that we may be creating a pop- ments and policies having to do with human ulation increasingly dependent on medical care. reproductivity are likely to be denounced, with Such issues - about eugenics and dysgen- the strong implication that anything describable ics, de facto and de jure - will become increas- by the word "eugenic" is morally intolerable. ingly familiar. The entire eugenics furor of the These statements are quite understandable, but twentieth century was the consequence of peo- they are also misleading. They give the impres- ple grappling with new information about the sion that eugenics ever went away -- which it mechanics of genetic inheritance. And more didn't- or that it can be excluded from the information is on the way. future- which it can't. Eugenics is part of life in our time, and the challenge is to understand that and manage it wisely. Eugenic issues will Redesigning Humans – and be constantly emerging in the bio-information Everything Else era. As a leading geneticist, Steve Jones of University College, London, puts it: "No serious Gregory Stock, a noted futurist and direc- scientist now has the slightest interest in pro- tor of the Program on Medicine, Technology, ducing a genetically planned society. But the and Society at the University of California at Los explosion in genetics means that we are soon - Angeles, recently wrote a book titled like it or not - bound to be faced with moral Redesigning Humans: Our Inevitable Genetic problems about whether we should make con- Future, and its basic argument is that germline scious decisions about human evolution".6 modification of human beings - particularly the So although we may not have the geneti- deliberate selection of characteristics of unborn cally planned society - eugenics de jure - more children - will bring a new stage of human evo- and more people are making decisions that are lution: "The arrival of safe, reliable germline de facto eugenics. Whenever a couple chooses technology will signal the beginning of human to abort a defective fetus and try again, whenev- self-design. We do not know where this devel- er a prospective parent makes a reproductive opment will ultimately take us, but it will trans- decision on the basis of knowledge that he or form the evolutionary process by drawing she carries for an inheritable disease, reproduction into a highly selective social whenever a sperm bank screens prospective process that is far more rapid and effective at spreading successful genes than traditional sex- donors to find what traits they carry, they are 7 making decisions about human evolution. If ual competition and mate selection". eugenics is about people-breeding, about Stock expects that the emphasis at first is attempting to improve the genetic heritage of likely to be on modifications to prevent dis- those yet unborn, all these meet the definition. eases, improve general health, and improve One good argument for thinking open- longevity - but might also lead to various mindedly about eugenics is the constant reality enhancements of physical or mental perform- of dysgenics – deteriorations of the human ance, and even to choice of eye or hair color. gene pool as a result of various social and med- Lee Silver, a Princeton microbiologist, specu- ical interventions. Anything that medical science lates more adventurously that future genera- does to prolong the life into reproductive years tions might choose enhancements based on of a person who is born with a genetic illness genes borrowed from other species: ultraviolet results in offspring who carry the genes for that or infrared vision, the ability to generate elec- illness. As treatments for people with cystic tricity, magnetic detection capabilities, a sense of smell comparable to that of dogs or other fibrosis improve, and as genetic therapy saves 8 children with severe combined immunity disor- mammals. der, more of those people will be able to marry Although any such genetic modifications and lead normal reproductive lives, and more are still far in the future and certain to children will be born with those genes. Some encounter opposition wherever they appear, 25 Journal of Futures Studies

modifications of other species are proceeding the capability of the human brain - might result. much more rapidly: millions of acres are now The computer scientist and science-fiction nov- growing genetically-engineered food crops, elist Vernor Vinge first used that word (in this while the newspapers regularly bring reports of meaning) in a 1993 paper in which he wrote: cloned and modified domestic animals. Many of "From the human point view this change will be these modifications are designed not only for a throwing away of all the previous rules, per- enhancing food production, but also for med- haps in the blink of an eye, an exponential ical uses: animals producing medicines in their runaway beyond any hope of control. milk, plants (even tobacco) modified to grow Developments that before were thought might medicines, and a new approach to immuniza- only happen in 'a million years' (if ever) will likely tion in the form of so-called "edible vaccines" happen in the next century".11 such as bananas designed to confer resistance In this view the history of the third millen- to various diarrhetic diseases common to chil- nium will be told in terms of a new kind of evo- dren in tropical countries. Yet another rationale lution, inseparably biological and mechanical. for genetic modification is the potential of new By the year 2099, Kurzweil predicts, there will industrial materials: A company in Canada plans no longer be any clear distinction between to produce a material called "biosteel". based on humans and computers. Furthermore, most transferring the gene for spider silk into milk conscious entities will not have a permanent animals. The 21st century is likely to see genetic physical presence, but will be able to wander modifications in many kinds of plants, animals, freely through space and cyberspace, mobile as and microorganisms, for many different an e-mail message.12 purposes. Genomes are being mapped and A darker scenario on mechanical futures sequenced, and this explosion of genetic infor- was outlined in Bill Joy's widely-read article mation may have consequences of kinds that "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us", in which he have yet to emerge in public discourse. For discussed the possibility that a runaway evolu- example, the recently-completed decoding of tion of self-replicating robots might take place the genomes of the main malaria parasite and with disastrous consequences - even threaten- the mosquito that carries it may lead, finally, to ing the future of the entire human species.13 a victory over one of the world's most trouble- This concern lead Joy to propose yet another some diseases by a number of possible meth- form of evolutionary governance: slowing down ods: new drugs, a vaccine, perhaps genetically- the pace of machine innovation to prevent such engineered strains of mosquito that would not an event from taking place. That such an idea only resist the parasite but be capable of dis- could be presented by a reputable scientist, and placing their parasite-carrying relatives9. taken seriously by many people, is an indication Meanwhile, we hear of yet another sort of of how quickly the new era is approaching. evolutionary innovation - interactions between And, at the same time that we begin to human beings and machines. Ray Kurzweil, in grapple with new issues about the evolution of The Age of Spiritual Machines, confidently pre- species, we confront an ever-growing body of dicts that it will become possible to "download" information about human impacts on ecosys- the contents of a human brain into another tems - impacts which add up to another kind of medium, thus extending the life of an individ- directed evolution, global in scale. ual's consciousness beyond the life of the bio- logical body.10 Kurzweil and some other techno- futurists now believe that computer power will The Art and Science of Planet soon equal and then pass human intelligence. Management This event is now commonly described as the "singularity", a leap into a new and incompre- Readers of science fiction are familiar with hensible world of change in which all kinds of the word "terraforming", which refers to the 26 scientific discoveries and innovations - beyond transformation of other planets to make them The Era of Evolutionary Governance

fit for human habitation - and more like Earth. network of underwater microphones. Originally Kim Stanley Robinson's trilogy about the colo- built at a cost of several billions of dollars to pin- nization of Mars - Red Mars, Green Mars and point the locations of ships and submarines, Blue Mars - is a monumental epic of how such a this surveillance system can also detect the dis- transformation might take place in the not-too- tant calls of whales, the movements of schools distant future.14 An even more grandiose enter- of fish, tremors in the seabeds, and underwater prise is described in the Hyperion novels of Dan volancos. Simmons, in which planets throughout the Many environmental observations are galaxy are analyzed for their potential as human made by international research projects. A few habitat and - with varying degrees of success - years ago Earthwatch magazine reported on an terraformed.15 "international phalanx" of coordinated activities The idea of terraforming other planets is including "an American Total Ozone Mapping not so fanciful as to prevent people from engag- Spectrometer aboard a Russian Meteor 3 space ing in heated debates about whether it should craft, a US-French Topex-Poseidon satellite to be permitted to happen in the future. One thing measure global with an accuracy of that makes it possible to take such debates seri- two centimeters, a German-built Shuttle Pallet ously is the dawning awareness that we have Satellite (to measure atmospheric infrared and already "terraformed" Earth: that human activi- the critical chemical radical OH), a Japanese- ties have transformed ecosystems everywhere American test of the NASA Scatterometer, and and - through - are having an dozens of other esoteric and complex measur- impact on the biosphere itself. ing devices involving dozens of countries... "16. And people have transformed the Earth in In 1987, when scientists from several different another way: wired it with a huge network of nations spent several weeks studying stratos- information feedback systems. This dimension pheric chemical reactions and minute concen- of global change is often overlooked; we still trations of gases over Antarctica, they employed have not grasped the significance of the global not only satellites but also balloons, a DC-8 fly- system of environmental information-gathering ing laboratory, and a converted high-altitude U- that has been put into play over the past few 2 aircraft. decades. Most people don't have much of an And, with advances in the science of mod- idea of how gigantic that system has become or eling, vast amounts of data are synthesized in how central a part it now plays in the life of the attempts to comprehend the working of the planet. system as a whole and project future develop- We know now that we live in an informa- ments. tion society; we have not figured out that we With the development of the Web, ecolog- live on an information planet. Today the Earth ical information becomes readily available to system sciences are served by a global network the general public. For example, the Global of satellites, observation stations, probes into Biodiversity Information Facility, recently the planet's crust and the ocean depths, radio launched into cyberspace, will eventually have a transmitters on migrating birds and mammals, Web page for each of the world's 1.5 million computer data banks and modeling software. catalogued species of animals, plants and Satellites monitor the condition of soils microorganisms. Also on the Internet is a map and crops, the growth and shrinkage of forests of seismic hazard levels for the entire world, giv- and deserts, the migrations of birds and ani- ing estimates of future ground shaking, ranging mals, the flows of glaciers, the effects of spread- from "very low" through "moderate" to "very ing urbanization. Since 1958, the thickness of high". It was compiled by the Global Seismic the Arctic ice cap has been measured by Hazard Assessment Program, and among those upward-looking sonar aboard submarines oper- who use it are multinational corporations, sci- ating under the ice sheet. More recently, the US entists, policy makers, grassroots environmen- Navy has agreed to let scientists use its global tal groups, and indigenous peoples. 27 Journal of Futures Studies

Such information often serves as direct weak to stay alive and reproduce. In the twenti- feedback to activities on Earth. Marine biolo- eth century artificial insemination was outlawed gists in Massachusetts rely on satellites to alert in many places. Now the innovations are com- them to sudden warm-weather blooms of algae ing at a faster rate and are in many cases more and plankton off the Atlantic coast. If they find striking: cloned sheep, spider silk genes in milk the plankton heavily infested with poisonous animals, pigs specially bred to provide replace- cyanobacteria, they alert public health officials ment organs for human beings, gene therapy who order a closing of the local shellfish beds. and even in vitro manipulation of human Similarly, scientists in India use remote-sensing embryos. This indicates that the decades and technology to detect sudden increases in off- even centuries ahead will be busy not only with shore plankton which carry the microbe that new discoveries but also with varying public causes cholera; the microbe, they have learned, reactions to them, with intense involvement of is taken up by fish, carried by fish to humans, governmental, intergovernmental and non- and then moves into the drinking water with governmental organizations of many kinds - a human wastes. long era of evolutionary governance. The various parts of this system are The overall pattern will most likely be increasingly linking around the world, much as gradual public acceptance of new applications, the neural connections grow in the brain of a varying from region to region and influenced by developing child, and in the process creating a many factors - including, of course, evidence of new entity, of a kind we have not yet previously their successes and failures. But sometimes imagined and still do not fully understand even applications of new technologies run ahead of though human consciousness is the creator and full public acceptance and even public policy. custodian of the change.17 Government laws, regulations and research policies may influence the development of future technologies but are unlikely to prevent Governing in a Bio-Information the deployment of any application that some Society people consider safe and desirable. In regard to germinal choice technology (GMT), Stock pre- The twin information revolutions, genetic dicts: and ecological, are two aspects of the transition The legal status of various procedures in into a new social context which is also a new various places may hasten or retard their arrival stage of the planet's evolution. but will have little enduring impact, because ... One common reaction to a change of such the genomic and reproductive technologies at magnitude is to try to stop it, or at least to slow the heart of GCT will arise from mainstream bio- it down. This is particularly evident in regard to medical research that will proceed regardless. biotechnology, which has been a matter of Bans will determine not whether but where the intense controversy almost from its beginning. technologies will be available, who profits from Some have proposed that genetic engineering them, who shapes their development, and be prohibited entirely, while others have which parents have early access to them. Laws expressed cautious support for its possible ben- will decide whether the technologies will be efits but have opposed specific applications developed in closely scrutinized clinical trials in such as genetically modified food crops. the United States, in government labs in China, Such reactions to new developments are or in clandestine facilities in the Caribbean18. to be expected. In the nineteenth century there Stock's prediction is supported by what is was opposition to vaccination from people of happening now, in an increasingly interconnect- several different persuasions - including clergy- ed world. Abortion may be illegal in one coun- men who believed it was a violation of God's try, but always obtainable somewhere for those will to give an animal disease to people, and with sufficient will and money. A heart trans- 28 eugenicists who believed it was enabling the plant may beyond the capability of one coun- The Era of Evolutionary Governance

try's medical science, but, again, obtainable else- 3. Hubris and Disaster: People proceed where for some. This relates to what I believe is too quickly into experimenting with the most frequently overlooked aspect of the genetic choices, resulting in wide- biological revolution: social equity. The ques- spread births of horribly defective chil- tion of who has access to what and when is no dren, and massive rejection of such less urgent than the safety and ethical concerns technologies. that tend to dominate public debate about 4. Human-machine Symbiosis: Human biotechnology and related technologies, but beings become cyber-organisms, their receives far less attention. minds and bodies dramatically trans- Many different initiatives aimed at address- formed by electronics, robotics, and ing certain specific equity concerns are under- nanotechnology. (I should point out way. Some of these may succeed, but the basic that, although the more dramatic situation - an immense gap between the richest forms of symbiosis may be doubtful, and poorest in terms of ability to receive and other forms - pacemakers, for example use the most advanced medicines, agricultural - are already here.) technologies, information/communications sys- 5. Left Behind: Machine evolution pro- tems and industrial processes - has not ceeds into evolutionary leaps far changed. In regard to drugs, for example, Africa beyond human levels, leaving Homo accounts for 1 percent of world drug sales, Sapiens to extinction or irrelevance. while North America, Japan and Western Any of these is thinkable, all are more like- Europe account for 80 percent. The gap is per- ly than the prospect that things will remain the haps most evident in relation to life expectancy: same. We face the high probability that Homo In the US and other wealthier countries, aver- Sapiens will become, in the not-too-distant age life expectancy is in the high seventies. In future, a significantly different biological organ- several African countries, such as Malawi and ism from what we are today, and from what Zambia, it is around 37 and projected to go human beings have been for tens of thousands lower with the impact of AIDS. Many medical of years. This is an evolutionary development futurists are now predicting dramatic increases that, until recently, was not even contemplated in life expectancy - scenarios in which the by science fiction writers and moviemakers, "longevity gap" could grow even wider, to the most of whose characters ventured out into point that the rich and the poor are hardly the outer space with conventional twentieth-centu- same species: the rich living a century or two ry bodies and life expectancies. It will be driven (in some scenarios, much longer) in full health by human volition and influenced by public poli- and productivity, while the poor live miserably cy, but it is most unlikely to be governed from a and die young. single center with a single master plan for That is one scenario - unfortunately, a very human evolution. plausible one - of future human evolution. Let With regard to the governance of the bios- me, summarizing the thinking of various futur- phere, the issues are much different but no less ists, quickly suggest a few others: psychologically disturbing. Perhaps most dis- 1. Onward and Upward: Worldwide - and turbing of all were the two new concerns that equitably distributed - improvements in emerged late in the twentieth century: stratos- life expectancy, health, intelligence and pheric and global climate physical performance. change.19 With these and other ecological prob- 2. The new Cambrian Explosion: People lems in the headlines, people contemplated the choose many different paths of genetic reality - not just the possibility - of global-scale choice, resulting in divergent groups of problems caused by human action and requir- human beings of vastly different ing human response. And we got the news shapes, sizes, abilities and characteris- from the global information systems. Nobody tics. simply looked up and saw a hole in the ozone, 29 Journal of Futures Studies

or noticed that the weather was warmer than it phere management - all of these vastly oversim- had been a couple of centuries ago. plified, but still useful in sketching a picture of The predictable result was a sharp increase where we are and where we may be going. in efforts to construct environmental laws and First, the scenarios: regulations. Richard Benedick, a specialist in 1. Massive Disruption. Severe global international environmental policies, pointed warming leading to rising sea levels out some time ago that the latter decades of and coastal flooding, widespread the 20th century witnessed "a virtual explosion droughts and in other of multilateral negotiations aimed at addressing regions, an increase in grass fires and the new global environmental issues". He speci- forest fires, frequent and powerful hur- fied 14 different global environmental agree- ricanes. An even more frightening ver- ments concluded in the rather short period of sion deals with a sudden reversal into a time between 1985 and 1997: among them the cooling effect as atmospheric and Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol on oceanic disturbances plunge the world the ozone layer, the UN Convention on into a new . Such a develop- Biological Diversity, the UN Convention to ment, wrote William Calvin in an article Combat Desertification, and the Kyoto Protocol describing this possibility, "would be a on Climate Change.20 potentially civilization-crashing affair," Also there has been a proliferation of arising too quickly for any effective gov- regimes - such as the Antarctic Treaty System ernance response.22 and the European transboundary air pollution 2. Midrange Climate Change. Various pre- regime - which are specialized governing sys- dictions of globally-averaged surface tems, often involving both governmental and temperature changes in the 21st centu- nongovernmental organizations. These, too, are ry range upward from 1.4 degrees information-dependent, but tend to focus on Celsius. Within this range, a global cli- specific concerns: biodiversity, marine pollution, mate regime might be able to respond international trade in endangered species, with some degree of effectiveness to transboundary flows of airborne pollutants or such disturbances as moderate rises in hazardous wastes. Another, more recent, addi- the global mean sea level, increases in tion to the list of global regimes is the World precipitation and wind intensities, and Commission on Dams, formed following a intensified summer drying in midlati- meeting of diverse groups early in 1997, which tude continental interiors. conducted a major review of the impacts of 3. All Is Well. This is the future envisioned some of humanity's most massive ecological by dissenters who claim that all predic- interventions and will undoubtedly be a force in tions of global warming are faulty, future dam-related developments.21 based on a combination of poor sci- Such international developments give us ence, environmentalist hype and an idea of what the management of a planet bureaucratic empire-building, and that looks like, and what it will look like in the there is no need for any global regime future: changing, multicentric, information- that would lead to further dilutions of based. And, of course, political. If people can national sovereignty. There have even have different opinions about how to run a city been assertions that global warning will or a country, it is hardly surprising that they be a boon, bringing increases in agricul- have different opinions about how to manage a tural productivity and a reduction of biosphere. troublesome ice and snow.23 For a brief overview of this huge and com- There are also, as we move into an age of plex subject, I will describe three scenarios of decision-marking on a global scale, different ecological change, three different models of ideas about what kind of a system of global gov- 30 global governance, and two approaches to bios- ernance is most desirable and achievable: The Era of Evolutionary Governance

1. Global Government (world-centered). tion of wilderness areas and endan- This is the ideal of World Federalists gered species; together with a cautious and other groups who believe that the stance toward technologies in general needs of a global society in uncertain and biotechnologies in particular, and a times can only be met by a global gov- belief that responses to environmental ernment -- a federal authority with leg- problems must emphasize changes in islative, executive and judicial branches, behavior (less consumption, particular- and with the power to make policies ly of energy) over technological manip- that would be binding on national gov- ulations. Environmentalists tend to ernments. regard human interventions as nega- 2. A World of Sovereign Nations (state- tive and thus to resist ideas of pro- centered). "Realists" believe that nation- active evolutionary governance. states are and should continue to be However, there has arisen in recent the only legitimate institutions of gov- decades a strong interest in one form ernment, maintaining full sovereignty of active ecological management - the even when they create intergovern- restoration of damaged ecosystems. mental organizations for limited pur- 2. The Technological Fix. Physicist poses. Gregory Benford, in a study of our pos- 3. An Ecology of Governance (multicen- sible long-range impacts on the world, tric). This is, for better or for worse, makes a case for active "geoengineer- what we have now - a mix of nation- ing," and predicts "the inevitable emer- states, international organizations, non- gence of a new technovisionary com- governmental organizations, multina- munity, devoted to solving global ills tional organizations, regimes (some- with global technologies." This, he times overlapping) and networks. notes, "is quite different from simply Some see this as confusing and ineffi- finding the polluters and telling them cient; others - of which I am one - to stop."24 Already, rising environmental believe that a multicentric system is the concern around the world has led to a only kind that is appropriate in a multi- vast outpouring of scientific research centric world. Such a system is, among and technological innovation. Not sur- other things, more flexible in response prisingly, much of this has to do with and more amenable to structural alternative energy sources. Some of change. these - particularly solar and wind Finally, let us consider two different gener- power - are compatible with Green al orientations to managing a world in which agendas; others - such as generating concerns such as global warming are on the ethanol in "biorefineries" with the use public agenda. of genetically-engineered enzymes - are 1. Shades of Green. Environmentalist ori- regarded with great skepticism. So are entations to global governance come in proposals for a global-scale assault on many shadings, of which the most radi- CO2 accumulation by artificially stimu- cal are staunchly opposed to globaliza- lating the growth of carbon-holding tion and in favor of a return to self-suffi- plankton in the oceans. cient local communities with simpler In these two general orientations to tech- technologies. Mainstream environ- nological change and environmental concerns, mentalists are more pragmatic in this we can see the emerging outlines of two com- regard, but some positions are held peting philosophies of global evolutionary gov- across the spectrum: a preference for ernance. Given the enormous number of vari- renewable energy, sustainable agricul- ables that will determine what happens in the ture, conservation of resources, protec- next few decades - all the different possible 31 Journal of Futures Studies

developments in science and technology, the and aware of herself."25 good and bad global surprises, the possible psy- chological reactions and political movements, the changes in governmental structures - it is Correspondence impossible to say with any degree of certainty Walter Truett Anderson what will unfold in the decades just ahead. But 657 Coventry Road this is the framework. Kensington CA 94707 USA I close this discussion with the statement (510) 526-5814 that one thing is certain: a growing recognition [email protected] of the reality of evolutionary governance. [email protected] Perhaps not entirely certain: A rapidly-unfolding [email protected] civilization-destroying event such as the one William Calvin describes could override any Notes other development we might imagine. But the larger processes that I have described - leading 1. Walter Truett Anderson, To Govern toward greater human involvement in the bio- Evolution: Further Adventures of the logical evolution of species (including our own) Political Animal (Boston: Harcourt Brace and the mechanisms of all ecosystems (includ- Jovanovich, 1987). ing the biosphere itself) show no sign of lessen- 2. Julian Huxley, "," Journal of Humanistic Psychology, Spring 1968, pp. 73- ing at the present time. In fact, the information 77 explosions of genetic discovery and global feed- 3. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species (New back may well be at their early stages. York: Mentor, 1958), p. 80. This means, as I have suggested at the 4. George Perkins Marsh, Man and Nature beginning, a revision of our understanding of (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1965), the relationship between our species and the p. 247. planet, a new evolutionary governance role 5. Daniel J. Kevles, In the Name of Eugenics something along the lines of what Julian Huxley (New York: Knopf, 1985). was trying to describe decades ago. 6. Steve Jones, "Our Genetic Future: The The Green dream of an Earth serenely in Evolution of Utopia," The (London) balance, regulating its own systems by natural Independent, Dec. 19, 1991, p. 12. 7. Gregory Stock, Redesigning Humans: Our feedback mechanisms while human beings Inevitable Genetic Future (New York: somehow stand apart from this and let it work Houghton Mifflin, 2002), p. 3. its magic, is an appealing image. But we never 8. Lee Silver, Remaking Eden: How Genetic lived in such a world and are not about to begin Engineering and Cloning Will Transform the doing so. Interestingly, James Lovelock, the American Family (New York: Avon, 1997), p. father of the Gaia hypothesis which is often 279. cited as the model for such an image, doesn't 9. Nicholas Wade, "Genetic Decoding May Bring seem to think so either. In the closing pages of Advances in Worldwide Fight Against his book he described humans as the only crea- Malaria," The New York Times, October 3, tures with the capacity to gather and store 2002, p. A22. information and use it in complex ways, and 10. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed thus a part of Gaia, "a Gaian nervous system" Human Intelligence (New York: Penguin, with a brain which can consciously anticipate 1999). environmental changes. He concluded by 11. Vernor Vinge, "The technological singularity." exploring "the implication that the evolution of Address to NASA Vision-21 Symposium, homo sapiens, with his technological inventive- March 30-31, 1993. ness and his increasingly subtle communica- 12. Kurzweil, p. 280. tions network, has vastly increased Gaia's range 13. Bill Joy, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," 32 of perception. She is now through us awake Wired, April 2000. The Era of Evolutionary Governance

14. Kim Stanley Robinson, Red Mars (New York: Used to Be: The Augmented Animal and Bantam, 1993); Green Mars (1994); Blue the Whole Wired World. New York: W. H. Mars (1996). Freeman. 15. Dan Simmons, Hyperion (New York: Benedick, Richard E. 1999. "Tomorrow's Bantam, 1989); The Fall of Hyperion (1990); Environment Is Global." Futures. Endymion (1996); The Rise of Endymion Nov/Dec Pp. 937-947 (1997); Benford, Gregory. 1999. Deep Time: How 16. Cherrington M, "Weather or Not," Humanity Communicates Across Millennia Earthwatch, May/June 1995, p. 5. New York: Avon. P. 188 17. Walter Truett Anderson, "The Information Calvin, William H. 1998. "The Great Climate Flip- Planet: A Report on Our Trip to Another Flop," Atlantic Monthly, January. Pp. 47- World," Futures, June 2001; also see Walter 64 Truett Anderson, Evolution Isn't What It Darwin,Charles.1958. The Origin of Species. Used to Be: The Augmented Animal and the New York: Mentor. P. 80. Whole Wired World (New York: W. H. Huxley, Julian.Spring1968. "Transhumanism" Freeman, 1996.. Journal of Humanistic Psychology. Pp. 18. Stock, Redesigning Humans, p. 113. 73-77 19. The possibility of global climate change Joy, Bill. 2000. "Why the Future Doesn't Need resulting from the greenhouse had first Us," Wired. April. been predicted a century earlier by the James, E. Lovelock. 1979. Gaia: A New Look at Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius. Life on Earth. Oxford: Oxford University 20. Richard E. Benedick, "Tomorrow's Environ- Press. Pp. 147 - 148 ment Is Global," Futures, Nov/Dec 1999, pp. Kevles, Daniel J.1985. In the Name of Eugenics 937-947. New York: Knopf, 1985. 21. The Commission's founding and activities Kurzweil, Ray. 1999. The Age of Spiritual are assessed in a series of articles in Politics Machines: When Computers Exceed and the Life Sciences, March 2002, pp. 37 - Human Intelligence. New York: Penguin. 71. Marsh, George Perkins.1965. Man and Nature. 22. William H. Calvin, "The Great Climate Flip- Cambridge: Harvard University Press. P. Flop," Atlantic Monthly, January 1998, pp. 247 47-64. M, Cherrington.1995. "Weather or Not." 23. Thomas Gale Moore, Global Warming: A Earthwatch. May/June P. 5 Boon to Humans and Other Animals Moore, Thomas Gale.1995. Global Warming: A (Stanford University: Hoover Institution, Boon to Humans and Other Animals. 1995). Stanford University: Hoover Institution. 24. Gregory Benford, Deep Time: How Robinson, Kim Stanley.1993. Red Mars New Humanity Communicates Across Millennia York: Bantam. Green Mars. 1994. Blue (New York: Avon, 1999), p. 188. Mars .1996. 25. James E. Lovelock, Gaia: A New Look at Life Steve, Jones. 1991. "Our Genetic Future: The on Earth. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, Evolution of Utopia." The (London) 1979), pp. 147 - 148. Independent, Dec.19, P. 12 Stock, Gregory. 2002. Redesigning Humans: Our Inevitable Genetic Future New York: References Houghton Mifflin. P. 3 Silver, Lee.1997. Remaking Eden: How Genetic Anderson, Walter Truett. 1987. To Govern Engineering and Cloning Will Transform Evolution: Further Adventures of the the American Family. New York: Avon. P. Political Animal. Boston: Harcourt Brace 279 Jovanovich. Simmons, Dan. _____.1996. "The Information Planet: A Report 1989. Hyperion New York: Bantam. on Our Trip to Another World," Futures. 1990. The Fall of Hyperion June 2001. also see Walter Truett 1996. Endymion Anderson. 1996. Evolution Isn't What It 1997. The Rise of Endymion. 33 Journal of Futures Studies

Vinge, Vernor. 1993. "The technological singu- larity." Address to NASA Vision-21 Symposium, March: 30-31. Wade, Nicholas. 2002. "Genetic Decoding May Bring Advances in Worldwide Fight Against Malaria." The New York Times. October 3: P. A22

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