Minnesota Weathertalk January-December 2018

Minnesota WeatherTalk January-December 2018 Cold Start to 2018 Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 05, 2018 By Mark Seeley, University of Minnesota Extension Climatologist

Over the first four days of January most Minnesota climate observers were reporting temperatures that ranged from 15 to 20 degrees F colder than normal, as nearly all parts of the state are seeing overnight temperatures that are subzero. Since December 8, 2017, Minnesota has reported the coldest temperature in the nation on 13 dates with Walker, Kabetogama, Cotton, Camp Norris, and Embarrass all reporting minimum temperatures of -40°F or colder.

In fact over the 11 days since December 25th the Twin Cities temperatures have been subzero on 10 nights, which has only happened one other time in history, December 25, 1886 to January 4, 1887. This is very rare statistically to see cold weather dominate so consistently this time of year.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has updated the Winter Misery Index for the Twin Cities using the climate data since October of 2017 up through January 5, 2018. The score so far is just 22 points, with 20 points coming from the recent cold spell, and just 2 points for snowfall.

In addition the MN State Climatology Office has recently updated the dates for lake ice- in, much of which has occurred over the past month or so. Most of the 2017 Lake Ice- In dates are prior to December 12, 2017.

December Weather Trivia For December 2017 Minnesota recorded a large temperature range. The state high was 64 degrees F at Albert Lea and other places on the 4th, while the state low was -45 degrees F at Embarrass on the 31st. This is a 109-degree temperature range. I can find only one other December in state history with a larger range of temperature. That was in 1898 when the temperature was 54 degrees F at Two Harbors on the 17th and -57 degrees F at Pokegama Dam on the 31st, producing a 111-degree range for the month.

A Look at Minnesota's Coldest Weeks in History Last week I remarked about the unusually cold week between Christmas Day and New Year's Eve when the statewide average temperature was -10°F. For the Twin Cities it was the coldest week between the holidays in 132 years and only the 4th time in history that the weekly average temperatures have been subzero. Those years have been 1886 with -4.7°F, 2017 with -3.0°F, 1924 with -1.8°F, and 1880 with -0.6°F. You can

read more about these cold holiday periods from the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Many people have asked me to list the coldest weeks in Minnesota history based on statewide average temperature. Bearing in mind that the numbers of climate stations have varied over the years and therefore affects the statewide average, I have come up with a top ten list. Here there are:

1. January 6-12, 1912, -20°F 2. February 6-12, 1899 -19.6°F 3. January 30 - February 5, 1996 -19.0°F 4. January 14-20, 1994 -18.4°F 5. January 15-21, 1888* -17.8°F 6. December 18-24, 1983 -17.1°F 7. February 1-7, 1895 -17.0°F 8. January 20-26, 1936 -16.7°F 9. December 18-24, 1872* -16.5°F 10. January 13-19, 1885* -13.5°F

Please note that the years marked by * indicated an estimated value for the weekly average statewide temperature using relatively sparse data sets.

Weekly Weather Potpourri A very intense low-pressure system, at one time producing a barometric pressure reading of 28.35 inches brought strong winds, high waves, and mixed precipitation to the New England states on Thursday this week. Many roads and schools were closed. There were also widespread power outages and blizzard warnings were issued for parts of MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, and NH. Several reports of over 12 inches of snowfall were received through National Weather Service Forecast Offices.

Elsewhere portions of Western Europe were being battered by winter storm Eleanor on Thursday as well. High winds and heavy precipitation were battering parts of France, Switzerland, and Spain. Power outages were widespread, and many airline flights were delayed or cancelled. Ski resorts in the Alps were receiving abundant snowfall.

Over in the Southern Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Ava was bringing heavy rains and high winds to eastern parts of Madagascar. The storm was expected to persist into the weekend and early next week bringing several inches of rain (perhaps 8 or more inches) and wind gusts over 90 mph, along with sea waves of over 25 feet.

New research from the University of Utah is showing the air pollution has dramatic effects on Arctic cloud forms, much more so than forest fires Arctic air masses are highly sensitive to particulate matter which tends to get trapped by inversion layers in

high latitudes. You can find more details of this research in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters.

MPR listener question Here at Embarrass, MN we reported a New Year’s Eve (2017) minimum temperature of -45°F and a maximum temperature of -15°F, for a daily mean temperature of -30°F. This was our coldest New Year’s Eve in history back to 1994. How does New Years Eve of 2017 rank in state history in terms of the cold temperature?

Answer Good question. BTW New Year’s Eve mean temperature of -30°F is nowhere near your all-time cold mean temperature record of -41°F on February 2, 1996. Based on statewide mean temperature reports for New Year’s Eve across Minnesota history back to 1895, here are the coldest five:

December 31, 1967 -17.8°F December 31, 1973 -17.7°F December 31, 2017 -15.9°F December 31, 1968 -15.8°F December 31, 1976 -14.4°F

So on a statewide basis it was the 3rd coldest New Year’s Eve in history. In addition, many very dangerous Wind Chill values were reported that day including: -53°F at Staples; -48°F at Park Rapids; -46°F at Baudette, Wadena, and Warroad; and -45°F at Alexandria, Hibbing, and Roseau.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 5th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 5th MSP records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1885; lowest daily maximum temperature of -14 degree F in 1912; lowest daily minimum temperature of -28 degrees F in 1884, 1912, and 1924; highest daily minimum temperature of 33 degrees F in 1946; record precipitation of 0.63 inches in 1932. Record snowfall on this date is 4.7 inches in 1994.

Average dew point for January 5th is 5°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1915; and the minimum dew point on this date is -38°F in 1924.

All-time state records for January 5th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 62 degrees F at Granite Falls (Chippewa County) in 2012; the all-time state low for today's date is -49 degrees F at International Falls (Koochiching County) in 1896. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 1.92 inches at Byron (Olmsted County) in 1997. Record snowfall is 23.0 inches at Remer (Cass County) in 1997.

Past Weather Features The coldest January 5th in state history was in 1924. Over 50 communities reported a morning low temperature of -30 degrees F or colder, and six climate stations were colder than -40°F. With abundant snow on the ground the temperature at Grand Meadow in southern Minnesota never got higher than -16 degrees F that day.

January 4-5, 1997 brought a significant winter storm to Minnesota. Precipitation was mixed with rain, sleet, and snow. An ice storm caused numerous accidents and power outages in southern counties. Many northwestern counties were under a blizzard warning and several roads were closed. Many climate stations reported 10-20 inches of snowfall, with Pequot Lakes reporting over 23 inches.

By far the warmest January 5th in state history was in 2012. Over 35 Minnesota communities reported an afternoon temperature of 50 degrees F or greater, while Milan and Granite Falls exceeded 60 degrees F. For many climate stations the morning low temperature was in the upper 20s F.

Outlook Cloudy skies and a warming trend over the weekend with temperatures climbing to above normal values. There will be chances for snow and snow flurries each day, mostly central and northern areas. Then, another chance for snow by Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures later in the week dropping below normal.

Patterns of cold temperature in January Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 19, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Many citizens have said “enough with the cold already” bring on some thawing temperatures. Well, we are in the midst of our 2nd January thaw (bearing in mind the first one was over January 8-11). The first half of the month was dominated by cold temperatures with two-thirds of the days reporting cooler than normal values as well as numerous subzero nights. Overall temperatures during the first two weeks were 4 to 6 degrees cooler than average. Dozens of climate stations have reported -30 degrees F or colder so far this month, while Embarrass, Cotton, Ely, and Walker have reported -40 degrees F or colder. In fact, Minnesota has reported the nation’s coldest temperature on seven dates so far this month.

Bear in mind the cold aberration is unusual for us in that since 2002 two-thirds of all Januarys have been warmer than normal across the state, and four among the ten warmest in history. For the Twin Cities the first half of January is the coldest reported since 1999. However, no new record cold values were recorded.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Earlier this week the Minnesota State Climatology Office updated the Winter Misery Index for the Twin Cities. So far it stands at 33 points, a mild class of winter despite the run of cold temperatures. The last winter with a “high” misery index score (207 points) was that of 2013-2014.

NOAA scientists write this week that 2017 was the 3rd warmest year globally going all the way back to 1880. It did not quite equal the record-setting back-to-back years of 2015-2016. Their analysis goes on to say that it marks the 41st consecutive year that global temperature was above the 20th Century mean value.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta in the Southern Indian Ocean is expected to pass east of Madagascar this weekend and remain mostly out to sea. That is a good thing as it packs winds close to 80 mph and sea wave heights over 15 feet.

A powerful storm brought strong winds to portions of the United Kingdom on Thursday this week. Wales, the Midlands, and Southwestern England were hit by winds up to 80 mph. Thousands went without power for a time, and rail service was disrupted because of blown down trees.

MPR listener question We were having a debate the other day about when the winter average temperatures in Minnesota bottom out historically and start a consistent climb upward. Some of us thing 6

it is the 3rd week in January, and others thing it doesn’t happen until the 4th week. Can you give us a more precise answer?

Answer These dates vary around the state as far as when the winter temperature “bottoms out.” Based on the date that the average temperature starts to climb using the period from 1981-2010 here are the dates. You can see that some are in the 3rd week of January and others are in the 4th week of the month, but they are all within a week of each other.

MSP January 24 Rochester January 24 Duluth January 22 International Falls January 20 Hallock January 21 Moorhead January 23 Morris January 23 Brainerd January 26

So indications are that based on average temperature, next week is winter’s “turning point” for most of the state- something we can smile about.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 19th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 7 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 19th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 49 degrees F in 1921; lowest daily maximum temperature of -10 degree F in 1943 and 1970; lowest daily minimum temperature of -34 degrees F in 1970; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1908; record precipitation of 0.57 inches in 1988. Record snowfall on this date is 7.5 inches in 1988.

Average dew point for January 19th is 4°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1921; and the minimum dew point on this date is -41°F in 1985.

All-time state records for January 19thecember 29th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 61 degrees F at Milan (Chippewa County) in 1900; the all-time state low for today's date is -47 degrees F at Bigfork (Itasca County) in 1963. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.03 inches at Lake City (Goodhue County) in 1982. Record snowfall is 18.0 inches also at St James (Watonwan County) in 1988.

Past Weather Features The warmest January 19th in state history occurred in 1900, under bright, sunny skies and with little snow cover. Over 20 Minnesota communities warmed to 50 degrees F or higher by afternoon. A modest southwest wind kept the temperature above 32 degrees overnight at Pipestone, a very rare event during January.

Perhaps the coldest January 19th in state history was in 1994. On that morning 18 climate stations reported a temperature of -40 degrees F or colder. It was -32 degrees F at Rosemount, pretty near the Twin Cities. The afternoon high temperature at Fosston was just -27 degrees F.

A major winter storm brought heavy snowfall to parts of Minnesota over January 18-20, 1988. Across many southern and central counties snow totals ranged from 10 to 18 inches. Many schools were closed or started late, while a number of roads were closed due to large drifts.

On January 19, 2017 we were in the middle of a ten-day run of temperatures that ranged from 15 to 25 degrees F warmer than normal. One of the most pronounced January thaws in state history.

Outlook Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend. Increasing clouds on Sunday, then a chance for mixed precipitation (rain and snow) later on Sunday and into Monday as a strong low-pressure system passes. Snow accumulations will be significant in many places on Monday. Drier and cooler over Tuesday through Thursday next week as temperatures fall back to near normal. Then another chance for snow by Friday.

Looking Back at the Snowstorm of January 22nd Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 26, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Over the weekend just ahead of the January 22nd snowstorm, many Minnesota communities reported record high temperatures as sunny skies and southerly winds were prevalent across many parts of the state. Temperatures climbed into the 40s F in many areas of the state, including 44 degrees F at Moose Lake and 45 degrees F at Brainerd (on the 20th), and where snow cover was absent or sparse even greater temperatures were reported like 46 degrees F at Worthington and 48 degrees F at Browns Valley on the 21st. In addition, in many areas of the state dew points climbed into the mid-30s F, near record high territory for late January, and indicating a high amount of water vapor in the air mass over the state.

This helped to set up a significant snowfall across many parts of southern Minnesota on January 22nd, and especially across the Twin Cities Metro Area. During the peak of the storm, roughly 1pm to 6pm, maximum snowfall accumulation rates ranged from 1 to 2 inches per hour in many areas. With winds gusting from 35 to 47 mph in many southern county’s blizzard conditions prevailed and caused the closure of many roads, as well as many school cancellations.

Because of the famous and record-setting snowstorm of January 22, 1982 when many climate observers reported 16 to 24 inches of snowfall, the snowstorm on Monday did not produce as many new daily records as thought. However, some Minnesota climate observers did report either a new record daily snowfall amount or because of the high- water content in the snow a new record daily precipitation amount (liquid) for the date. Among these reports were: • MSP 1.03 inches of precipitation • Amboy 10.0 inches of snow, and 0.62 inches of precipitation • Jordan 12.8 inches of snow, and 1.11 inches of precipitation • Rosemount 11.0 inches of snow, and 0.58 inches of precipitation • Worthington 10.0 inches of snow, and 0.95 inches of precipitation • Windom 12.4 inches of snow, and 1.03 inches of precipitation • Winnebago 14.0 inches of snow, and 1.08 inches of precipitation • Owatonna 14.0 inches of snow, and 1.15 inches of precipitation • St James 15.0 inches of snow • Waseca 16.5 inches of snow • Fairmont 13.5 inches of snow • Lakefield 1.17 inches of precipitation

At this time of year, any daily precipitation amount over 1 inch is unusually high. The new snow cover was widely welcomed by those who have been waiting to sled or cross-

country ski.

Weekly Weather Potpourri One of the NOAA Climate Blogs this week written by Deke Arndt features a look at climate extremes by state. This is an interesting read and gives some insight into the importance of having volunteer weather observers to not only report measured values from the instruments but also make commentary about unusual weather events in their area.

In the Southern Hemisphere New Zealand is reporting its hottest month of January in history, with temperatures in north Canterbury reaching 99 degrees F, unheard of territory. A vast percentage of January days have produced above normal temperatures across the country.

On Wednesday of this week Storm Georgina brought strong winds and heavy rains to many parts of the United Kingdom. Peak wind gusts in western Scotland approached 85 mph, while many other parts of the country reported wind gusts to 50 and 60 mph and some areas had heavy rains. Georgina was the 7th named storm of the winter season there.

A fascinating report called “The United States of Climate Change” was recently released and highlighted this week by the Weather Channel at Weather.com. This report looks at the state-by-state vulnerability to climate change and highlights some of the observed consequences. It is most comprehensive in detail and a very interesting read.

A quote from the Cloud Appreciation Society newsletter: “The emotion is to be found in clouds, not in the green solids of the sloping hills or even in the gray signatures of rivers, according to Constable, who was a student of clouds and filled shelves of notebooks with their motion, their lofty gesturing and sudden implication of weather.” [From ‘Student of Clouds’ (1988) by Billy Collins]

MPR listener question I have heard you often say that in the middle of winter the temperatures pattern in Minnesota is often the opposite of that in Alaska. So, I was wondering is that holding true again during this month of January?

Answer Indeed, that appears to be the case. Most observers throughout Minnesota are reporting mean monthly temperatures so far (Jan 1-24) that are 2 to 4 degrees F cooler than normal. Here are some values for January 1-24:

MSP 15.2 degrees F, -0.2 F cooler than normal Rochester 12.6 degrees F, -3.0 F cooler than normal Duluth 9.8 degrees F, -0.4 F cooler than normal

Now here are the corresponding values (Jan 1-24) for three major climate stations in Alaska: Point Barrow -4.3 degrees F, +8.8 F above normal Fairbanks -1.3 degrees F, +6.8 F above normal Anchorage 22.4 degrees F, +5.2 F above average

I might further add that 37 new daily high temperature records have been set so far this month in the Alaska climate network.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 26th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 16 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 26th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily maximum temperature of -9 degree F in 1904 and 1972; lowest daily minimum temperature of -26 degrees F in 1897; highest daily minimum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1911; record precipitation of 0.37 inches in 1910 and 1916. Record snowfall on this date is 7.4 inches in 2004.

Average dew point for January 26th is 1 degree F, with a maximum of 37 degrees F in 1944 and a minimum of -41 degrees F in 1946.

All-time state records for January 26th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 63 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) in 1944; the all-time state low for today's date is -55 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1904. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 1.00 inch at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 2004. Record snowfall is 24.0 inches at Tamarac National Wildlife Refuge (Becker County) in 2004.

Past Weather Features January 26, 1904 was likely the coldest in state history. With abundant snow cover, temperatures dropped to -30 degrees F or colder in 25 Minnesota communities, including as far south as Caledonia (Houston County) where the high temperature was - 13 degrees F after a morning low of -30 degrees F. In the north, the afternoon high temperature at Tower was just negative 20 degrees F.

Back-to-back snowstorms over January 26-29, 1916 delivered 15 to 25 inches of snow to many parts of central and northern Minnesota. Schools and businesses were closed, and railroad service was hampered for days before the snow, sometimes in drifts of 15 feet could be cleared from the tracks.

January 26, 1944 was the warmest in state history with 30 climate stations reporting an afternoon high temperature of 50 degrees F or greater. Seven communities saw the mercury climb above 60 degrees F. Some city employees in Montevideo took lunch outside at picnic tables as the temperatures had climbed to 64 degrees F.

Over January 25-27, 2004 a massive snowstorm blanketed the state. The heaviest snow fell in northeastern counties where Duluth reported over 27 inches and Two Harbors over 30 inches. Some northern Minnesota roads were closed to traffic until plows could remove the bulk of snow, which had accumulated in 10-12 foot drifts.

Outlook The weekend will start with warmer than normal temperatures on Saturday in many areas, then increasing cloudiness, chance for snow flurries in the north. Temperatures cool to below normal values for Sunday and Monday, then a warming trend for Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance for snow. Below normal temperatures will prevail for Thursday through Super Bowl weekend (Feb 4).

Climate Summary for January 2018 Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 02, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Temperatures exhibited great variation during the month of January with daily departures that were over 20 degrees F above and below normal. Overall, the mean temperatures for the month ended up from 1 to 2 degrees F cooler than normal, especially in NE and SE communities, to 1-2 degrees F warmer than normal in many other parts of the state. Extremes for the month ranged from 51 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) on the 20th to -46 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) on the 14th. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation 8 times during the month, and on 6 of those dates the report was from Embarrass, MN. Four climate stations reported lows of -40 degrees F or colder, while five climate stations reported highs of 50 degrees F or greater.

For most of Minnesota January was drier than normal, with total precipitation (liquid water content) measured at 0.70 inches or less. Exceptions occurred in some south- central, east central, and southeastern communities where precipitation totals for the month exceeded 1.50 inches. Grand Meadow (Mower County) reported 2.46 inches, their 3rd wettest January in history. Others reporting well above normal January precipitation included Waseca with 1.84 inches (14th wettest January) and MSP with 1.55 inches (20th wettest January).

As for snowfall, most locations in the state reported below normal snowfall for the month, with some exception in eastern and southern counties. Generally, snowfall in western counties was below normal, and progressively more to the east. At least ten climate stations reported 20 inches or more, including the Twin Cities. Owatonna reported 23.1 inches of snow for the month.

Two other climate characteristics of note in January: the second half of the month brought much more sunlight than the first half, with several days having perfectly clear skies; for the southern half of the state, it was a windy month of January with 8 to 12 days bringing winds gusts over 30 mph, and even 30-50 mph gusts during the blizzard on January 22nd.

Weekly Weather Potpourri For Sunday, February 4, 2018 the Super Bowl will thankfully be played indoors at US Bank Stadium in downtown Minneapolis where it will be approximately 70 degrees F. The outside temperature will be the coldest in Super Bowl history with readings ranging between 0- and 3-degrees F and Wind Chill values of -10 to -15 degrees F. For the last Super Bowl hosted by the Twin Cities in 1992 in the Metrodome, the outdoor temperature was 26 degrees F. You can read more about the weather for Super Bowl weekend at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site. 13

With the recent floods along the Seine River in Paris, there was a BBC Weather story about Parisians using the flood streets for wakeboarding behind the tow of a vehicle.

Powerful Cyclone Cebile was churning in the Southern Indian Ocean this week generating winds over 130 mph and sea waves of 30 feet. Strong as it is it was not presenting any threat to island nations there, through shipping traffic was diverted around it.

A new forecast published by scientists at the United Kingdom Met Office indicates the annual global average temperature is likely to exceed 1 °C and could reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels during the next five years (2018-2022).

In a news release issued this week NOAA scientists have produced monthly average temperature maps for each decade over the remainder of the 21st Century. The climate models that produced these maps use two different energy use projection scenarios and the maps show the disparity in the temperature increase among states. You can immediately notice a significant warming in Minnesota during the month of January, a trend that has been significant over the past two decades already.

This week there is an interesting article by Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground on the high wind speeds recorded during the passage of Category 5 Hurricane Irma over the Leeward Islands on September 6, 2017. The highest wind speeds recorded by NOAA instruments were between 115-120 mph, but a private weather station on St Barts recorded a wind gust of 199 mph before the instrument was destroyed by flying debris.

MPR listener question I noticed that we had two distinct multi-day thaw periods during January here in the Twin Cities, the 8th through the 11th, and again over the 18th to the 21st. It seems like we often get at least one January thaw period, but how often do we get two like this year?

Answer You are right that multi-day January thaw periods are common in the Twin Cities climate record, but years with two distinct multi-day thaw periods are rare. In the 148 years since 1871 there have only been 9 Januarys that brought two such periods: 1880, 1900, 1942, 1944, 1947, 1987, 1992, 2006, and 2018. Another oddity in the data among these Januarys with two distinct multi-day thaw periods, 2018 is the one with the most subzero nights, eleven. In all the other Januarys on this list the number of subzero nights was single digits, and in January of 2006 there were no subzero nights. This serves as evidence for the great temperature variation during last month and wild swings in air mass characteristics last month.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 2nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 2nd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 48 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily maximum temperature of -17 degree F in 1996; lowest daily minimum temperature of -32 degrees F in 1996; highest daily minimum temperature of 31 degrees F in 2003; record precipitation of 0.80 inches in 1919 and 1983. Record snowfall on this date is 8.8 inches in 2016.

Average dew point for February 2nd is 3-degree F, with a maximum of 34 degrees F in 1987 and a minimum of -47 degrees F in 1996.

All-time state records for February 2nd The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 66 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1991; the all-time state low for today's date is -60 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1996. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.00 inch at Caledonia (Houston County) in 1915. Record snowfall is 20.0 inches also at Caledonia (Houston County) in 1915.

Past Weather Features Back-to-back winter storms delivered very heavy snowfalls across Minnesota over January 30 to February 6, 1915. Rain, sleet, and ice prevailed in many parts of southern Minnesota, especially during the first storm. Then heavy snow fell, delivering 30 inches to Lynd in southwestern Minnesota (Lyon County), and over 2 feet of snow in Caledonia (Houston County) where the railroad was shut down for two days.

February 2-3, 1919 brought heavy snow to portions of central Minnesota where there were widespread reports of 8-10 inches.

Over February 1-4, 1983 a slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snow to portions of southeastern Minnesota. Many schools were closed because school buses could not negotiate the snow packed roads and highways, where snow drifts packed 3 to 5 feet high. Portions of Winona County reported over 18 inches of snowfall.

The warmest Groundhog’s Day in state history was in 1991. Under sunny skies and southerly winds afternoon temperatures climbed into the 50s F in 30 communities across the state. Five climate stations reached the 60s F, and some citizens were seen taking their lunch outside at picnic tables. By far the coldest Groundhog’s Day in state 15

history occurred in 1996 with an all-time state record of -60 degrees F at Tower, MN. At least 10 other climate stations reported low temperatures of -50 degrees F or colder, and it was as cold as -36 degrees F as far south as Zumbrota, Faribault, Amboy, and Preston.

Outlook Temperatures through the Super Bowl weekend and throughout next week will be several degrees cooler than normal, with many subzero nights. There is a chance for scattered snow showers on Saturday (1-3 inches in spots) and again on Monday. Then there will generally be a dry and cold pattern for much of next week.

Cold Start to February Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 09, 2018 By Mark Seeley

February has begun with a prolonged cold spell of many subzero nights with daytime highs only reaching the single digits in many places. Average temperatures around the state are running 10 to 12 degrees F cooler than normal. Over the first nine days of the month Minnesota has reported the nation’s coldest temperature 5 times, including -43 degrees F at Embarrass on the 4th. So far 16 climate stations in northern portions of the state have seen the temperature drop to -30 degrees F at least once this month.

Several observers have reported 3 to 5 inches of new snow this month. In many northern areas snow depths range from 8 to 15 inches, while west-central counties still lack snow cover as many observers there report less than 2 inches. Soil frost depths around the state currently range from 15 to 30 inches and will likely go deeper. The colder than normal temperatures are likely to continue on Wednesday of next week (Feb 14th) when temperatures are expected to climb into the 30s F, breaking the streak.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Very heavy snowfall with significant snow drifts closed some streets in Paris on Wednesday of this week. The Eiffel Tower was even closed for a time. This unusual weather followed a massive flood on the River Seine through Paris that occurred the last week of January closing many Parisian streets due to high water. Winter precipitation there has been up to 10 inches above normal, a very wet season. You can read more about the flooding in Paris from the Climate.gov blog.

Since 2015 Cape Town, South Africa has consistently reported below normal rainfall. The cumulative effect of this has resulted in a severe water shortage for this city, and there will be even stricter water use regulations imposed beginning this April or May, perhaps only allowing each resident to use 7 gallons or less per day. You can read more about this drought and its impact there from an article by NOAA’s Michon Scott.

Colder than normal temperatures are expected to prevail across many of the Olympic venues in South Korea for the first weekend of competitions at the Winter Olympics. Daytime temperatures may be in the teens and twenties F, with nights dropping as low as -2 to -7 degrees F. Wind Chill values will be in the range of -10 to -20 degrees F, especially for those spectators taking in the Alpine Skiing events this weekend. You can find more updates from the BBC Weather Center.

University of Arizona scientists recently analyzed the global temperature spike that occurred over 2014 to 2016. They found that over these three years the global temperature jumped 25 percent, and that the natural variability in the Earth climate 17

system is not sufficient to explain this remarkable jump.

MPR listener question Looks like we will start February of 2018 with 11 or more consecutive days of colder than normal temperatures here in the Twin Cities, the longest streak of colder than normal temperatures since the spell of weather from Christmas Eve to January 6 (14 consecutive days). We were wondering how often does the month of February start with colder than normal weather over the first 11 days or more?

Answer Over the past 145 years (back to 1873) February has started with 11 or more consecutive days of colder than normal temperatures 22 times (15 percent), most recently in 2014. So, this is pretty rare actually. Looks like we will break the current streak of colder than normal temperatures by the time we get to next Wednesday, the 14th day of the month. BTW in 1875 all 28 days of February were colder than normal, and it was the coldest February in Twin Cities history. Second coldest February was 1936, and third coldest was 1904 (both had over 20 days with colder than normal temperatures).

Twin Cities Almanac for February 9th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 11 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 9th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1966; lowest daily maximum temperature of -16 degree F in 1899; lowest daily minimum temperature of -33 degrees F in 1899; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 1966; record precipitation of 0.92 inches in 1965. Record snowfall on this date is 8.0 inches in 1939.

Average dew point for February 9th is 6-degree F, with a maximum of 46 degrees F in 1966 and a minimum of -30 degrees F in 1975.

All-time state records for February 9th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 63 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1991; the all-time state low for today's date is -59 degrees F at Leech Lake (Cass County) in 1899. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 1.75 inch at Collegeville (Stearns County) in 1909. Record snowfall is 15.0 inches at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1909.

Past Weather Features The Great Arctic Outbreaks of 1835 and 1899-

Today is the anniversary of two arctic cold outbreaks which produced some rather striking effects on the mighty Mississippi River. On this date in 1835 and again in 1899 the river was frozen deeply at Ft Snelling, allowing for foot and sleigh traffic. Low temperatures in Minnesota ranged from the -30s F to the -50s F. On the morning of February 9, 1899 over 20 Minnesota climate stations reported a temperature of -40 degrees F or colder. Detroit Lakes (Becker County) reported a low of -53 degrees F and a high of -32 degrees F.

It was also frozen enough for skating and sledding as far south as St Louis, and ice floes were observed entering the Gulf of Mexico out of New Orleans. In fact, on February 9, 1899 parts of Louisiana recorded their all-time coldest temperatures with 7 degrees F at New Orleans and -4 degrees F at Shreveport. The 1899 cold wave struck the Gulf and eastern seaboard states with great ferocity. Parts of Florida received 3.5 inches of snow. Other record low temperatures that occurred during that Arctic Outbreak of 1899 included: -6 degrees F at Atlanta, GA; 10 degrees F at Jacksonville, FL; -2 degrees F at Tallahassee, FL; and -15 degrees F in Washington, D.C.

Over February 9-10, 1909 a major winter storm brought rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to nearly all of the state. Snow was heaviest in south-central counties where observers reported 10 to 18 inches of snow.

One of the heaviest snowfalls of the Dust Bowl Era (1930s) in Minnesota occurred over February 8-10, 1939. From the Twin Cities north over a foot of snow piled up, and in the northeast both Pigeon River and Grand Marais reported over 20 inches of snow.

The warmest February 9th in state history was in 1991. Over 40 climate stations saw afternoon temperatures soar into the 50s F. In southwestern Minnesota temperatures reached the 60s F at Lamberton, Springfield, and Canby.

Outlook A generally sunny or partly cloudy weekend, but with cooler than normal temperatures prevailing across the state. Continued cool and dry for Monday and Tuesday, then warmer by Wednesday of next week, as temperatures moderate in the latter part of the week.

Snow will be welcome in west-central Minnesota Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 16, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Portions of west-central Minnesota have been exceptionally dry since November 1 of last year. Over an area spanning from Lyon County north to Traverse County and east to Meeker County climate observers have reported only about 25 to 35 percent of normal precipitation since November 1st. As a result, some of these west-central counties are designated to be in moderate drought by the US Drought Monitor, but more importantly the persistent absence of snow covers this winter has allowed frost depths to go down 20-30 inches and exposed pasture lands to some extremely low temperatures (conducive to winter injury of perennial grasses and alfalfa). Should this pattern persist into the spring farmers would be justifiably considered about lacking enough moisture for the planting season.

Fortunately the emerging weather pattern delineated by recent forecast models shows favorable conditions for significant snow cover to finally come to this portion of Minnesota beginning this weekend and through much of next week. This will be welcome there. Also, the new outlook models favor a cooler and wetter than normal spring for the state as a whole.

Weekly Weather Potpourri For those in the business of weather forecasting it is a bit disconcerting to see a proposed $1 billion dollar cut for NOAA in the Trump federal budget. Public expectations for the National Weather Service to provide warnings and forecasts for severe or threatening weather have never been higher, and the challenges are great to achieve better forecasting accuracy and enhance public safety. But with the proposed budget cuts NOAA could lose between 300 and 400 jobs, as well as capital funding for the deployment of new technologies. Let's hope that Congress restores some of this proposed budget cut to NOAA.

Tropical Cyclone Gita in the South Pacific Ocean is being watched carefully by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as it heads for New Zealand over the next three days. It currently packs wind gusts over 120 mph and sea wave heights over 25 feet, but is expected to weaken as it nears New Zealand.

There is an interesting discussion this week by the UK Met Office regarding the slang terms used to describe weather, and the misinterpretation of weather symbols by the public. There are very significant regional differences in the jargon used to describe heavy rain for example. The Met Office is hoping to use this survey data to better serve the public with local forecasts that are heeded.

A recent study by NOAA and University of Colorado scientists reveals that the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) released by paints and perfumes can cause a significant degradation in air quality. At least this is the case in the Los Angeles Basin where the study was done. You can read more about this paper published in Science by going to the online edition.

A strong cold front brought high winds and dust storms to parts of Australia on Wednesday this week. Melbourne was hit by winds ranging from 55 to 65 mph, knocking down trees, and bending road signs, as well as blowing shingles off roofs. Some people were injured by debris blown around in the wind.

MPR listener question I heard this might be a rare winter season when the average temperature for the three months of December, January, and February will be cooler than normal. Is this true? And how will this winter rank historically?

Answer As we stand this winter December was marginally cooler than normal, while January was marginally warmer than normal. With these somewhat offsetting months in play, the weight of February’s temperature pattern (9 to 11 degrees F cooler than normal so far) will cause the three-month average to fall below normal for only the 9th time in the last 30 years. Such winters have been pretty uncommon.

In fact if you look at the number of times the Twin Cities has reported a mean daily temperature in the single digits (below 10 degrees F) this winter that has occurred 28 times so far this winter. This seems like a large number, but it is not. Here are the top ten winters in the Twin Cities winter climate record (Dec-Feb) for number of days when the average daily temperature was in single digits or colder:

1886-1887 51 days 1874-1875 47 days 1917-1918 45 days 1916-1917 and 1978-1979 44 days 1882-1883 43 days 1935-1936 42 days 2013-2014 41 days 1872-1873 and 1981-1982 40 days 1919-1920 38 days 1876-1877 and 1983-1984 37 days

With the current weather outlook for beyond this weekend I would be surprised to see any more days with just a single digit average temperature. It seems like we will be

flirting with normal or above normal temperatures the rest of this month.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 16th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 13 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).MSP Local Records for February 16th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1981; lowest daily maximum temperature of -11 degree F in 1903; lowest daily minimum temperature of -26 degrees F in 1936; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1998; record precipitation of 0.40 inches in 1878. Record snowfall on this date is 3.2 inches in 1938.

Average dew point for February 16th is 11-degree F, with a maximum of 38 degrees F in 2011 and a minimum of -29 degrees F in 1973.16th:

All-time state records for February 16th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 67 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1981; the all-time state low for today's date is -59 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1903. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.20 inch at Brainerd (Crow Wing County) in 1921. Record snowfall is 12.0 inches at Aitkin (Aitkin County) in 1990.

Past Weather Features On a statewide basis the coldest February 16th occurred in 1936. With heavy snow cover in place an Arctic air mass descended from the north and brought record-setting cold to many counties. Fifteen climate stations reported a morning low of -40 degrees F or colder. As far south as Faribault it was -34 degrees F. At Fosston (Polk County) the temperature never rose higher than -25 degrees F.

By far the warmest February 16th in state history occurred in 1981. Over 40 Minnesota climate stations reported an afternoon high temperature in the 60s F under bright sunny skies and with light southerly winds. Many citizens took lunch outside to enjoy the weather.

A stalled frontal system along the Iowa border brought heavy snowfall to southern parts of the state over February 16-19, 1984. Snowfall amounts ranged from 5 to 13 inches, and in southwestern Minnesota counties many schools were closed because of drifted roads and highways.

A large, slow moving winter storm brought heavy snow to the state over February 15- 16, 1990. Many areas of central and northern Minnesota reported 6 to 12 inches of

snow. Dozens of schools were closed for the day on Friday the 16th.

Outlook Near normal temperatures over the weekend, with increasing cloudiness, especially on Sunday and a chance for snow later in the day and evening. There will be mixed precipitation Sunday night and Monday, with some rain and freezing rain in southern sections of the state, and mostly snow in the central and north. Amounts could be heavy in places (4-8 inches) and snow may linger well into Tuesday. Drier with near normal temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday next week.

Disparity in Winter Temperature Signal Associated with Snow Cover Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 23, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Last week I stated that this winter (Dec-Feb) will end up being colder than normal for most places in the state, something that has been fairly rare in occurrence over the past three decades. Approximately 90 percent of the climate stations in Minnesota will end up with an average temperature for the December (2017) through February (2018) period that is colder than average. Only about 10 percent of Minnesota’s climate stations will show a mean winter temperature that is slightly warmer than normal.

Areas of the state with ample snow cover will show the largest negative temperature departures, while areas that have been deficient in snow cover all winter will show slight positive temperature departures. Embarrass (St Louis County) which has reported significant snow cover since mid-December has reported 9 dates with a low temperature of -40 degrees F or colder. Conversely, Montevideo (Chippewa County) which has had only traces of snow cover all winter has reported 17 days with temperatures of 40 degrees F or higher.

In terms of the snow season, northern Minnesota is the place to be if you like snow for recreation. Only Isabella, Ely, Two Harbors, Wolf Ridge (near Finland, MN), and the uplands outside of Grand Marais have reported over 60 inches of snow since October of last year. Isabella (Lake County) has reported 76 inches, most in the state. Conversely many western counties including Douglas, Swift, Renville, Traverse, and Big Stone have reported less than 10 inches since last October, and a handful of stations have reported less than 6 inches, a real snow drought.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA released this week a summary of the global climate pattern for January 2018. It was the 5th warmest January globally for the record period going back to 1880. January of 2018 was also the 397th consecutive month (back to 1985) where the average global temperature has exceeded the 20th Century average. They also highlight other climate attributes for the month.

A recent video from the Yale Climate Forum provides a discussion of how climate change is affecting extreme weather around the world. The scientists interviewed describe how increasing temperatures in the Arctic are affecting the path of the jet stream, the severity of storms, and the length of individual weather events (rain, storms, drought).

A recent paper in the journal Nature Communications describes how changes in Earth’s

vegetation composition of had significant effects on climate behavior, making some areas warmer and some areas drier. Most of the climate effects are brought about by changes in the radiation balance at the Earth’s surface.

A recent paper in Reviews of Geophysics documents how tides affect the loss of ice in both the Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctica. Tides and their actions are in turn affected by climate change, as with changes in sea level and coastlines caused by climate change in turn affect the magnitude and timing of tides.

MPR listener question Here at Milan, MN (Chippewa County) we have received only 9 inches of snowfall since last fall, and only 1 inch so far in February. Do you know what the record lowest total amount is for the snow season here at Milan? If anybody does, we thought it would be you.

Answer Over the past 125 years at Milan the smallest amount of snow for a snow season (Sept- May) was in 1930-1931 when only 7.5 fell. The second lowest total was 8.4 inches in 1941-1942, and the third lowest total was 11.9 inches in 1920-1921. So, if you receive no more snowfall until May, this season will rank third lowest. But that is unlikely with so much snow in the forecast over the next several days. In fact, according to National Weather Service forecasts you could receive several more inches before the end of this month.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 23rd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 16 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 23rd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1958; lowest daily maximum temperature of -8 degree F in 1889; lowest daily minimum temperature of -25 degrees F in 1889; highest daily minimum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1931; record precipitation of 0.63 inches in 1909 and 1977. Record snowfall on this date is 6.3 inches in 1909.

Average dew point for February 23rd is 15-degree F, with a maximum of 45 degrees F in 2000 and a minimum of -23 degrees F in 1967.

All-time state records for February 23rd The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 70 degrees F at Lake Wilson (Murray County) in 2000; the all-time state low for today's date is -43 degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County) in 1889. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.35 inch at Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1922. Record snowfall is 25.0 inches at Detroit Lake (Becker County) also in 1922.

Past Weather Features With over a foot of snow on the ground already a bitter cold Arctic air mass settled over the state on February 23, 1889 bringing record-setting cold to many places. Some of the low temperatures included -43 degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County), -35 degrees F at Moorhead, -34 degrees F at Morris, -30 degrees F at Duluth, and -25 degrees F in the Twin Cities. The temperature at Moorhead that day never climbed higher than -13 degrees F.

A powerful winter storm brought a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow to the state over February 22-23, 1922. At Willmar 3.23 inches of precipitation was recorded (a record amount for February), with 14 inches of snow. Many observers reported 6-12 inches of snow, but Mora and Detroit Lakes reported over 20 inches.

Another winter storm brought mixed precipitation to the state over February 23-24, 1977. Some areas of the state reported over 2 inches of precipitation, while many observers also reported 7-14 inches of snowfall.

By far the warmest February 23rd in state history was in 2000 when most communities in the state reported afternoon high temperatures in the 50s F. In fact, at least a dozen climate observers reported a high of 60 degrees F or greater, topped by 70 degrees F at Lake Wilson in Murray County.

Yet another slow-moving winter storm brought a mixture of precipitation to the state over February 23-25, 2001. Many observers reported new daily snowfall records on those dates. Many climate stations reported from 10 to 20 inches, with the north shore of Lake Superior receiving over 20 inches.

Outlook The weekend will start out relatively mild but increasing cloudiness on Saturday will eventually bring snow to most of the state over the late afternoon and evening. In eastern sections of the state snow may linger into early Sunday morning. Widespread coverage of snow may lay down areas of 6 to 10 inches. Beginning on Monday milder temperatures will prevail for much of next week under partly cloudy skies, with a change for snow again late Wednesday and into Thursday.

February Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 02, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Overall, for most areas of Minnesota February was cooler than normal and wetter than normal. Average monthly temperatures ranged from 5 to 7 degrees F cooler than normal. At MSP it ranked as the 28th coolest month of February in the 145-year record. The statewide range in temperature for the month was 55 degrees F at Caledonia (Houston County) and Winona on the 28th and -43 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) on the 5th. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation 7 times during the month, more than any other state.

Nearly 90 percent of all weather observers reported above normal precipitation for the month, with New Ulm topping the list at 3.33 inches (melted snow equivalent). Several climate stations reported over 2 inches. In terms of snowfall, over 50 Minnesota climate stations reported monthly totals of 20 inches or greater, with parts of Cook and Lake Counties getting over 30 inches. Most of the monthly snowfall came during the week of February 19-25. Within the Minnesota climate observation network there were 54 maximum daily snowfall records that were set or tied during the month.

With the conclusion of meteorological winter (December-February) the climate statistics for Minnesota show that the season was 1 to 3 degrees F cooler than normal. It was also a wetter than normal winter in north-central, northeastern, and south-central counties, but drier than normal in several western and central counties of the state. And finally, for the snow season to date, Isabella (Lake County) leads the state with 89 inches so far, while Wheaton (Traverse County) reports a measly 15.3 inches.

Weekly Weather Potpourri It was an important day for the NOAA National Weather Service on March 1st this week as the new GOES-S satellite was launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Once in orbit it will be renamed GOES-17 and later this year take over for GOES-15 monitoring the western US and the Pacific Ocean. Its sensors will bring new information to forecasters in a timelier manner and should therefore improve forecasting for some areas, especially related to fog formation and formation of tropical storms. It will also be capable of detecting wildfires.

Winter Storm Emma was bringing cold temperatures and mixed precipitation to many parts of the United Kingdom on Thursday and Friday this week. Portions of southwestern England and southern Wales were expected to see 4 to 8 inches of snow, with larger amounts falling in higher elevations. Travel advisories were issued for most of the country as well.

On March 1st Winter Storm Quinn was bringing rain and heavy snow to portions of Washington, Oregon, and the California Sierra Nevada Range. Snowfall was expected to be continuous for a 48-72 hour period with several feet accumulating at elevation. Chains were needed to travel on Interstate 80. Meanwhile a very strong nor’easter was bringing heavy rains, snow, and high winds to the states along the New England coastal region of the USA. Travel was impeded there on Friday, with many flight delays and cancellations.

The study, "Pathways of Influence in Emotional Appeals: Benefits and Tradeoffs of Using Fear or Humor to Promote Climate Change-Related Intentions and Risk Perceptions," published in the Journal of Communication suggests that humor may be a vehicle to stimulate young people to take more action in responding to climate change. This article was a result of collaboration between Second City Works in Chicago and Cornell University.

MPR listener question To me nothing says deep winter like the squeal and crunch of dry snow in sub- or near- zero temperatures. I wonder if Dr. Seeley could explain the reason for this phenomenon?

Answer Regardless of its form in the sky, when snowfall flakes fall and accumulate on the ground they aggregate into various forms, with spaces in between. As long as the temperature remains below freezing and there is no melting these spaces between snow aggregates are bridged by tiny crystal structure which support the weight of the snow and keep it from totally collapsing. This process is called sintering. When you walk through the snow in subfreezing temperatures the pressure of your weight exerted on the snow may cause it to melt and the snow aggregates and bridges between them will collapse quietly while lubricated by the liquid water from melting. However when the temperature is below 14 degrees F, the downward pressure of your weight will not cause snow to melt and you will hear the squeaking or crunching sound of the aggregates and ice crystal bridges that hold them together collapsing under your weight.

So typically snow that has not been compacted, or partially melted by warm temperatures will crunch or squeak underfoot when the temperature is 14 degrees F or colder.

(Paul Huttner has written about this, as well as Jim Nash)

Twin Cities Almanac for March 2nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 35 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 19 degrees F (plus or minus 12

degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 2nd MSP records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 54 degrees F in 1923; lowest daily maximum temperature of 3-degree F in 2014; lowest daily minimum temperature of -17 degrees F in 1913; highest daily minimum temperature of 37 degrees F in 1878 and 1882; record precipitation of 0.58 inches in 1951. Record snowfall on this date is 7.1 inches in 1951.

Average dew point for March 2nd is 14-degree F, with a maximum of 41 degrees F in 1983 and a minimum of -26 degrees F in 1950.

All-time state records for March 2nd The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 71 degrees F at Lake Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 1992; the all-time state low for today's date is -50 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1897. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.45 inch at Young America (Carver County) in 1965. Record snowfall is 25.0 inches at Wolf Ridge (near Finland) in Lake County falling in 2007.

Past Weather Features Arctic cold gripped the state for the start of March in 1916. Twenty climate stations reported a morning low temperature of -30 degrees F or colder, with over a foot of snow on the ground. The temperature never rose above -5 degrees F all day at New London (Kandiyohi County).

One of the wettest starts to the month of March occurred in 1965 when a slow-moving low-pressure system brought mixed precipitation to the state over the first four days of the month. Many areas of the state received 10 to 20 inches of snow, while Collegeville, Winsted, St Cloud and Bird Island received over 20 inches.

Spring temperatures arrived early in 1992. On March 2nd many climate stations reported daytime highs in the 60s F, while both Browns Valley and Canby reached 70 degrees F. But it was not a sign of a warm spring, as the weather pattern sharply cooled down after that.

Outlook There will be partly to mostly cloudy skies over the weekend, with a chance for rain or snow, especially later on Sunday. Temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than normal, but there will be continuing chances for precipitation on Monday and Tuesday as well. Drier weather will settle in for Wednesday through Friday with cooler temperatures.

March is being March Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 23, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Beginning with the rain and snowstorm of the 5th and 6th this month has continued to bring a very typical March weather pattern. There has been plenty of clouds and wind, with a mixture of rain and snow. Temperatures so far are near the monthly average, and so are the precipitation totals.

Over 35 daily snowfall records were tied or broken with the storm over March 5-6, but generally record setting values of precipitation and temperature have been lacking this month. Minnesota has reported the coldest temperature in the nation on only four dates, three of which were subzero readings from Ely where snow cover has remained relatively deep.

It appears that cooler and wetter than normal conditions will prevail generally for the balance of the month and into the first few days of April. The patience of those Minnesota citizens afflicted with spring fever will be taxed over the coming weeks, as signs of the spring season will be slow to appear.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA features an article highlighting the extremely warm month of February which occurred over the Arctic Regions, where average monthly temperatures were as much as 25 to 35 degrees F above normal. Portions of Greenland reported some daily temperatures that were 45 degrees F above normal during late February.

For comparison Florida reported its warmest month of February in history last month, and there it was 10 degrees F warmer than normal.

The rapid Arctic warming, also referred to as “polar amplification” is also a topic of discussion in Earth and Space Science News this week. Researchers point out that the continuing decline in Arctic sea ice is causing some latitude displacement of the polar jet stream, which in turn is altering weather patterns across the mid latitudes.

In the Southern Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Marcus was spinning off the coast of Western Australia this week, producing winds up to 140 mph and sea waves of 35 feet. Thankfully it was expected to remain out to sea and not threaten the Australian coast.

The BBC Weather Centre this week posted video of a rare snow-nado which occurred in Wales. This takes the form of the common American dust devil, except it is a vortex wind that forms at the surface of the Earth and lifts the snow off the ground into a

spiraling funnel.

MPR listener question How often does Easter fall on April Fool's Day (the 1st) and what has the weather been like when it does?

Answer Easter generally falls between March 22 and April 25 each year. Since Minnesota statehood in 1858 Easter Sunday has fallen on April 1st only 8 times, including this year. These years were 1866, 1877, 1888, 1923, 1934, 1945, 1956, and 2018. The following were the remarks about the weather on those Easter Sundays of the past:

• 1866 overcast all day, temperature in the 30s and 40s with an unusual afternoon thunderstorm • 1877 started out cold with temperatures in the single digits and teens, mixture of rain and snow, followed by a sunny, and windy afternoon • 1888 snow on the ground, blustery and cloudy all day with temperatures in the 30s and 40s F • 1923 cloudy and hazy day, with temperatures in the low 40s F, light rain in the northwestern areas • 1934 overcast all day with a mixture of rain and snow and temperatures hovering in the 20s and 30s F. 6-8 inches of snow fell in northern parts of the state • 1945 cloudy, and a very windy day with temperatures climbing into the 50s and 60s F. Got up to 70°F at Winnebago and Windom, but snowed at Itasca State Park • 1956 snow covering the ground, but temperatures climbed into the 40s and 50s F. Thunderstorms brought a half inch of rain in the north • 2018 ? So for the most part these April 1st Easter Sundays were not generally great weather to be outside.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 23rd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 23rd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1910; lowest daily maximum temperature of 10 degree F in 1965; lowest daily minimum temperature of -4 degrees F in 1965; highest daily minimum temperature of 59 degrees F in 2012; record precipitation of 1.18 inches in 1966. Record snowfall on this date is 11.6 inches in 1966.

Average dew point for March 23rd is 24°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 1945; and the minimum dew point on this date is -21°F in 1974.

All-time state records for March 23rd The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 88 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1910; the all-time state low for today's date is -37 degrees F at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1965. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 3.87 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1979. Record snowfall is 18.0 inches at Montgomery (Le Sueur County) in 1966.

Past Weather Features The warmest March 23rd in state history was in 1910. Over 40 communities reported a high temperature of 80 degrees F or greater. It reached 81 degrees F at Warroad and the nighttime temperature never dropped below 50 degrees F at Long Prairie.

The coldest March 23rd in state history was in 1965. Over 30 communities reported a morning low of -20 degrees F or colder, and subzero readings occurred as far south as Albert Lea. The afternoon high temperature at Hallock only reached 3 degrees F.

A major winter storm paralyzed the state over March 22-23, 1966. Many southern and eastern Minnesota communities reported 9 to 18 inches of snowfall. High winds brought blizzard conditions to many areas, blocking roads and closing schools. For the first time in history the University of Minnesota campus was closed due to poor weather conditions.

Outlook Snow ending on Saturday morning, with cooler than normal temperatures prevailing. Heavier snowfall amounts are expected in portions of southwestern and south-central Minnesota. Another rain and snow mix is developing for later on Sunday night and Monday across much of the state. Then partly cloudy skies will prevail on Tuesday with temperatures climbing closer to normal. It will be warmer and drier with more sun for Wednesday and Thursday.

20 Year Anniversary of Historical March Tornado Outbreak Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 29, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Over the afternoon and early evening of Sunday, March 29, 1998 from 2:30 p m to 6:30 pm a widespread severe weather outbreak occurred across southwestern, south- central, southeastern, and central Minnesota counties.

Over 40 reports of large hail (up to 4.5 inch diameter in Nicollet County) came into the National Weather Service, and severe hail damage was reported to cars and trucks in Rochester.

Dozens of reports of strong winds (over 50 mph) were associated with thunderstorm supercells.

There were 14 confirmed tornadoes, the worst episode of March tornadoes in state history (and there have only been 10 tornado days during March in Minnesota history). Among these 14 tornadoes, an F4 (wind over 207 mph) was on the ground for 77 minutes and traveled 67 miles (Murray to Nicollet County). It was over a-mile-wide vortex at times. An F3 (winds 158-206 mph) tornado damaged many buildings in St Peter and on the Gustavus Adolphus College campus. Four F2 (113-157 mph) tornadoes caused damages in trailer parks, killed cattle in rural areas, and produced a good deal of structural damage in Le Center. Four F1 tornadoes (73-112 mph) caused damage to trees and rural buildings; and four F0 (winds 48-72 mph) tornadoes, mostly short-lived, were scattered across the landscape as well, the last one for the day in Wabasha County. Two days later on March 31 there was heavy snow and a blizzard warning issued for western Minnesota counties as a polar front invaded the Minnesota landscape.

These tornadoes caused just two deaths and 21 injuries—thanks to detailed forecasting by the NWS, acknowledged by many Minnesota citizens to be a superb job—but total estimated damages was in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Further details from NOAA National Weather Service Storm Reports included the following:

F4 tornado hit parts of Murray, Cottonwood, Brown, Watonwan, Blue Earth, and Nicollet Counties. Most damage in Comfrey where 75% of structures were damaged, including the town hall; 100 people left homeless, 50 homes destroyed, school heavily damaged, and over 500 dairy cows killed.

F3 tornado hit St Peter destroying 500 homes and damaging 1700 others. Thousands of trees uprooted. Gustavus Adolphus Campus denuded of trees, and nearly 70% of all windows broken; hospital and churches damages, roof torn off library and 25% of the books were damaged, dozens of farms and rural homes were damaged as well.

Following these destructive storms there was a fourfold increase in the use of NOAA Weather Radio across the state of Minnesota as a means to provide all resides with timely information on severe weather watches and warnings.

A Footnote on Community Resilience in St Peter, MN: The storm struck on Sunday, March 29th precisely two weeks before Easter Sunday (April 12). The Catholic Church of St Peter was destroyed and not usable. So, the congregation of First Lutheran Church in St Peter volunteered to share their building, and a joint Lutheran and Catholic Easter Service was held on April 12th. Thereafter for 2.5 years Catholic and Lutheran Services were alternately scheduled at the First Lutheran Church which also shared their building for Catholic weddings and funerals until November 2000 when a new church building for the Catholic Church of St Peter was consecrated and opened. There was a 20-year community remembrance held in St Peter on Thursday evening, March 29, 2018 hosted by former WCCO news anchor Don Shelby.

Preliminary March Climate Summary Average monthly temperatures around the state were either slightly below or slightly above normal by a degree or two. Extremes for the month were 59°F at Minnesota City (Winona County) on March 9th, and -16°F at Ely on the 10th. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation only four times.

Precipitation for the month was near normal, with greater abundance in western counties, and below normal values in some southern counties. Many southwestern Minnesota observers reported over 2.5 inches of precipitation and more expected to occur over this coming Friday and Saturday, the last two days of the month. Marshall, Winnebago, Vesta, and Canby reported over 20 inches of snow for the month, while some northeastern climate observers reported less than 4 inches.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Cherry blossoms are out in full force across Japan this week, making a beautiful blanket of pink across many landscapes. The BBC Weather Centre reported on this and displayed some beautiful pictures as well.

Meanwhile the National Park Service has pushed back the forecasted dates for peak cherry blossoms in the nation’s capital, Washington D. C. to the week of April 8-12, later than normal thanks to a cool temperature pattern.

A new study out of the University of Oklahoma examines the trends in surface water 37

abundance among states across the USA. It finds that water poor states are seeing a decline in the surface area of waters, while water rich states are seeing an upward trend in surface water resources.

MPR listener question What were the temperature and dew point conditions in southern Minnesota leading up to the famous outbreak of tornadoes on March 29, 1998?

Answer Strong southerly winds brought warm air and lots of moisture up from the south. Temperatures across the southern part of the state that afternoon were in the high 60s F to low 70s F, with dew points in the low 50s F. These are high values for late March (record dew points are in the upper 50s F), but not typically associated with tornado outbreaks. The latent energy from the higher-than-normal dew points probably contributed to the severe weather, but it was also driven by a high degree of atmospheric instability.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 30th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 49 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 30th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1968; lowest daily maximum temperature of 15 degree F in 1969; lowest daily minimum temperature of -3 degrees F in 1923; highest daily minimum temperature of 54 degrees F in 1967; record precipitation of 1.51 inches in 1933. Record snowfall on this date is 2.4 inches in 1934.

Average dew point for March 30th is 27°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 57°F in 1943; and the minimum dew point on this date is -11°F in 1969.

All-time state records for March 30th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 87 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1968; the all-time state low for today's date is -28 degrees F at Thorhult (Beltrami County) in 1975. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 3.39 inches at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1933. Record snowfall is 16.0 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 1934, one of the heaviest snows of the Dust Bowl Era.

Past Weather Features Early season thunderstorms brought heavy rains to many parts of Minnesota on March 30, 1933. Many areas reported over 1 inch of rain and some observers reported hail as well. Both Itasca State Park and Cass Lake reported over 2 inches of rain.

A winter storm rolled across southern Minnesota over March 29-30, 1934 bringing 6 to 16 inches to many areas of the state. Both Winona and Zumbrota reported over 17 inches of snow, a record for so late in the year.

The warmest March 30th in state history was in 1968 when sunny skies and south winds brought afternoon temperatures that were 20 to 30 degrees F above normal. Thirty-five climate stations reported a high temperature of 80 degrees F or greater. Even the nighttime temperature at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) never fell below 51 degrees F.

By far the coldest March 30th in state history was in 1975. With ample snow cover still widespread across the state, a polar front dropped temperatures well below zero. Most climate stations in the state reported subzero morning temperatures and it was colder than -20 degrees F at Hallock, Argyle, Thorhult, and Waskish.

Outlook Snow/rain mix across the state on Saturday, with the heavier bands of snow in the north. Cooler than normal temperatures under partly cloudy skies through Sunday night. Temperatures will moderate on Monday, but there will be a chance for mixed precipitation around the state. Cool than normal temperatures will prevail next week with another chance for mixed precipitation (snow or rain) by Wednesday.

Cold Start to April With Some Record Snows Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 06, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Through the first six days of the month temperatures are averaging 15 to 20 degrees F colder than normal around the state. At least 17 climate stations have reported subzero overnight temperatures so far this month, including -8 degrees F at Warren (Marshall County). Most other climate stations have been reporting high temperatures in the 20s and 30s with lows in the single digits and teen values.

Some new daily minimum temperature records have been set around the state so far. A sample listing includes:

3°F at Floodwood on April 1 19°F at Minnesota City on April 2 13°F at Hastings on April 3 -3°F at Park Rapids on April 4 0°F at Morris on April 4 2°F at Pipestone and Marshall on April 4 3°F at Milan and Madison on April 4 5°F at Austin and Albert Lea on April 4 -6°F at Embarrass and Long Prairie on April 5 -5°F at Kabetogama on April 5 -3°F at Redwood Falls on April 5 1°F at Browns Valley on April 5 3°F at Montevideo on April 5

Many other low minimum temperature and cold maximum temperature records were set within the Minnesota climate network as well.

In addition, the double dose of snow storms over April 2-4 this week brought some new record daily amounts. Some of those new record amounts for April 3 included:

8.1” at Chanhassen 7.5” at MSP airport 5.5” at Artichoke Lake 5.0” at Amboy 4.0” at Rosemount, Winnebago, and Owatonna

Records for April 4 included:

8.6” at Hokah 7.5” at Bricelyn 7.0” at La Crescent 6.5” at Spring Valley 6.2” at Caledonia 6.0” at Minnesota City and Lake City 5.6” at Preston

The outlook for April continues to favor cooler than normal temperatures and mixtures of rain and snow for much of the month. So, patience will be required by gardeners and farmers for this spring.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Tropical Cyclone Iris was moving northwest off the coast of northeastern Australia this week, but it did not pose a threat to coastal communities there. It was expected to dissipate by early next week.

Though the weather for the first two days of the Masters Golf Championship in August, GA appears to be very favorable, Saturday will likely bring some gusty and variable winds, along with a chance for thunderstorms. So playing the third round in foul weather seems somewhat likely.

There is an interesting article this week in EOS about the climate proxy data used by scientists to interpret past climate fluctuations and patterns. Among the sources used are bat poop and whale earwax.

MPR listener question Why does the snow melt when the air temperature is below freezing (32 degrees F)? This is from our “Morning Edition” producer Jim Bickal.

Answer Especially this time of year with a higher sun elevation angle and longer days, the sun’s energy is more powerful than earlier months. The full spectrum radiation from the sun can be absorbed by the snow, thus causing the snow to melt, even when the air temperature stays below freezing. In addition, the surfaces that surround the snow, pavement, buildings, roof shingles, trees, etc. will more readily absorb the radiation from the sun and emit long wave radiation (heat) in all directions, and this too can cause the snow to melt. In addition, very dry air can cause the snow to diminish by a process called sublimation, where the snow immediately changes to water vapor without melting. All these processes are in play this April.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 6th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 53 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 6th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 86 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily maximum temperature of 26 degree F in 1939; lowest daily minimum temperature of 10 degrees F in 1979; highest daily minimum temperature of 54 degrees F in 1921; record precipitation of 2.58 inches in 2006. Record snowfall on this date is 6.0 inches in 1962.

Average dew point for April 6th is 28°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 59°F in 1921; and the minimum dew point on this date is -3°F in 1979.

All-time state records for April 6th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 90 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) and Winona in 1991; the all-time state low for today's date is -22 degrees F at Karlstad (Kittson County) in 1979. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.67 inches at Dawson (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1997. Record snowfall is 18.0 inches at Fosston (Polk County) in 1947.

Past Weather Features A late season winter storm brought heavy snowfall to many parts of northern Minnesota over April 4-6, 1947. Observers from Willmar north to Fosston reported 7 to 18 inches of snowfall, setting records for the first week of April.

The coldest April 6th in state history was in 1979 when over 50 Minnesota climate stations reported subzero morning low temperatures. In northwestern portions of the state the daily high temperature never rose above 10°F at Hawley or Fergus Falls.

By far the warmest April 6th in state history was in 1991 when over 60 climate stations reported an afternoon high temperature of 80 degrees F or higher, topped by 90 degrees F at both Madison and Winona. In fact, the temperature never dipped below 65 degrees F at Winona that day.

During the famous 1997 flood-fight along the Red River of the North between North Dakota and Minnesota, a blizzard and heavy snowstorm occurred over April 5-7 hampering sandbag operations and the building of temporary dikes. Visibility was near zero at times and snowfall amounts were near record-setting, ranging from 5 to 14 inches. The flood fight continued for the rest of the month.

Outlook Partly cloudy with cooler than normal temperatures over the weekend. Increasing clouds on Sunday with a chance for snow later in the day. A chance for rain and snow mix early on Monday of next week, then dry until late Wednesday. Temperatures will continue the trend of being cooler than normal. Chance for rain/snow mix again by Thursday.

April Cold and Snow Revisited Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 13, 2018 By Mark Seeley

The first 12 days of April have been historically cold in Minnesota with average temperatures ranging from 14 to 16 degrees F colder than normal. Some individual days have been 20 to 30 degrees F colder than normal. Within the state climate network over 120 new daily record cold low temperature values have been tied or set, while over 130 cold daily record maximum temperature values have been tied or set as well. Over 50 climate stations have reported subzero temperature readings on at least one morning this month. Crane Lake reported the coldest temperature in the nation on the 4th with a reading of -8°F, while Embarrass reported the nation’s coldest temperature on the 10th with a reading of 0°F.

For Twin Cities’ residents the first 12 days of April have been the coldest in history back to 1872. Here are the top five coldest first 12 days of April in the Twin Cities climate records:

2018 average temperature 27.5°F 1920 average temperature 28.2°F 1874 average temperature 29.2°F 1975 average temperature 29.4°F 1939 average temperature 32.1°F

We are spoiled as Twin Cities’ residents in that only 2 years in the past three decades have brought April monthly mean temperatures less than 42°F. Those years were 1996 and 2013.

In addition many areas of the state have reported 10 to 13 inches of snowfall so far this month (including MSP), with much more snow expected this weekend. Over the past three decades in the Twin Cities only the Aprils 2002 and 2013 have been snowy. On a

statewide basis April of 2008 was one of the snowiest with over 20 climate stations reporting 30 inches of snow or more, and some northern communities reporting over 40 inches. So again, across most of the recent decades we have had very few episodes of snowy Aprils. Perhaps our faulty human memories help us in this regard, and we are more resilient as a result of forgetting the really challenging months of April.

Seems odd with such a cold, and snowy April underway that the NOAA-National Weather Service hosted Severe Weather Awareness Week this week, with tornado practice drills. But in an average spring season severe weather can begin to appear in April and May.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Ski-Scotland reports that it has been cold and snowy enough all winter that the snowpack in the highlands should allow for skiing well into the month of May. This is somewhat unusual but welcome news for avid skiers.

The Weather Underground staff provides a profile and analysis of the impact of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico in one of this week’s blogs. The NOAA National Hurricane Center did an exceptional job in forecasting Maria, but its’ devastation was remarkable, as it was one of the costliest hurricanes in history.

The Twins are playing the Cleveland Indians in Puerto Rico (April 17-18) next week in hopes of raising money and improving the spirits there as the citizens continue to recover from Hurricane Maria’s impacts. And speaking of Puerto Rico, the organization Casa Pueblo has never been without power since Hurricane Maria struck, thanks to the use of their solar power array. Now they are promoting the use of solar power to restore electricity to health care facilities and other needed services as Puerto Rico rebuilds its power grid.

In an AGU article this week European Union scientists explore the impacts of climate change on the European economy with respect to power generation, fresh water, tourism, and other sectors. It makes for an interesting read.

MPR listener question What is the latest date in the Spring season when school has been delayed or cancelled as a result of a snowstorm?

Answer Sketchy records don’t allow an accurate answer to this question. I do recall that over May 2-3 (Thursday-Friday) of 2013 Dodge Center (Dodge County) received a record 17.2 inches of snowfall and local schools were either cancelled or delayed. I also suspect that on May 8, 1938 when Windom, MN reported over a foot of snow that

school may have been delayed or cancelled back then as well.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 13th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 36 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 13th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 84 degrees F in 2006; lowest daily maximum temperature of 31 degree F in 1943; lowest daily minimum temperature of 2 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1941; record precipitation of 0.94 inches in 1991. Record snowfall on this date is 8.5 inches in 1928.

Average dew point for April13th is 31°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 64°F in 1941; and the minimum dew point on this date is -2°F in 1950.

All-time state records for April 13th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 90 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 2003; the all-time state low for today's date is -11 degrees F at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1950. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 3.57 inches at Hutchinson (McLeod County) in 2010. Record snowfall is 13.0 inches at Kimbrae (Nobles County) in 1892.

Past Weather Features April 13-16, 1928 brought heavy snowfall to many parts of the state. Many areas reported 8 to 12 inches and over 14 inches in parts of Hennepin County.

The coldest April 13 in state history was in 1950 when over 20 climate stations reported subzero morning low temperatures, including -11 degrees F at Roseau where there was still 20 inches of snow on the ground.

April 13, 2003 was the warmest in state history with over 40 climate stations reporting a daytime high of 80 degrees F or greater. Both Campbell and Wheaton reported 90 degrees F.

Spring thunderstorms brought heavy rainfall to many parts of the state on April 13, 2010. Many areas of the state received between one and two inches of rain, while both Willmar and Hutchinson reported over 3 inches.

Outlook A powerful storm will affect many parts of Minnesota this weekend with rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, and high winds. Some communities may see record-setting snowfall amounts. The storm will move out of the area by late Sunday, and the weather will be relatively quiet until another storm system arrives Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Temperatures overall will remain cooler than normal.

Record Snowfall Totals for April Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 20, 2018 By Mark Seeley

The heavy snowfalls and blizzard of April 13-16 set many records around the state. Many observers reported 12 to 18 inches of snowfall in total, while Milan, Lake Wilson, Tracy, Canby, and Madison reported over 19 inches. During the height of the snow, MSP Airport was closed, and MN/DOT reported over 600 vehicle accidents.

Many new record daily snowfall amounts were reported for April 14th, among dozens were 7 inches at Amboy, 8 inches at Ortonville, 14 inches a Milan, and 23 inches at Canby (a new statewide record for the date). Then on April 15th even more new daily record snowfall amounts were reported, among them 12 inches at Winnebago and Rosemount, 12.7 inches at Duluth, 14 inches at Dawson and Montevideo, 16 inches at Minneota, and 25 inches at Tracy (a new statewide record for the date). So two new statewide daily snowfall records were set by this storm, 23 inches at Canby on the 14th and 25 inches at Tracy on the 15th, remarkable!

Overall during the snow storm 63 daily snowfall records were tied or set within the Minnesota climate network.

In addition many climate observers now report April of 2018 as their snowiest April in history, including the following:

MSP 26.1 inches (and 78.3” for the snow season, 10th highest all-time back to 1884) Tracy 37 inches Canby 36.9 inches Montevideo 33 inches Dawson 32 inches Winnebago 31.5 inches Milan 29.7 inches Lakefield 32.1 inches Bricelyn 33.3 inches Marshall 27 inches

The Minnesota State Climatology Office posted a comprehensive summary of the storm. Thankfully, it appears that much of the precipitation for the rest of the month will fall as rain, not snow.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The International Arctic Research Center reports this week via NOAA the most unusual winter conditions that have prevailed in the Bering Strait off the southwestern coast of 48

Alaska. The lack of persistent sea ice there this winter caused a variety of problems for coastal communities.

There is a good article this week in the Yale Climate Connections about the city of Lancaster, CA transforming its power grid to mostly solar. That area of California has over 300 sunny days per year, so lots of potential for solar energy. The Republican Mayor, Rex Parris, has been a big proponent of solar energy, which has created over a thousand local jobs.

Warmer than normal weather will be a factor for the London Marathon on Saturday, April 21st. The daytime high temperature should be around the 70 degrees F mark, just short of the record for the London Marathon set in 2007 of 73 degrees F.

As a follow up to last year’s March for Science at the State Capitol in St Paul, there will be a Rally for Science at Mears Park in downtown St Paul on May 19th from noon to 2pm. There will be a variety of speakers, family activities, and information tables.

MPR listener question Paul and Susan Schurke at Wintergreen Dogsled Lodge near Ely noted that for them and Roland Fowler at Embarrass, overnight temperatures have been below freezing every night since October 27, 2017, a period of over 170 days. Is this a state record for consecutive nights with temperatures below freezing in Minnesota?

Answer Well, no, but it is getting close. The climate station at Brimson (St Louis County) reported 185 consecutive days from October 25, 2012 to April 27, 2013. Don’t know if there are 19th Century climate records that beat this but Embarrass and Ely will have to string together several more days to beat Brimson.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 20th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 20th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1980; lowest daily maximum temperature of 36 degree F in 1893; lowest daily minimum temperature of 21 degrees F in 2013; highest daily minimum temperature of 67 degrees F in 1985; record precipitation of 0.85 inches in 1893. Record snowfall on this date is 8.5 inches in 1893.

Average dew point for April 20th is 35°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 58°F in 1957; and the minimum dew point on this date is 6°F in 1988.

All-time state records for April 20th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 96 degrees F at Georgetown (Clay County) in 1980; the all-time state low for today's date is -14 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2013. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 3.08 inches at Collegeville (Stearns County) in 1893. Record snowfall is 18.0 inches at Ft Ripley (Crow Wing County) in 1893.

Past Weather Features One of the heaviest late season snowfalls in state history occurred over April 19-21, 1893. Snow was heavy with blizzard conditions in many areas. Among the state observer network, a foot of new snow was common, while Maple Plain reported over 20 inches, and St Cloud reported over 30 inches.

The warmest April 20th in state history was in 1980 when over 70 climate stations reported a daily high temperature of 80 degrees F or higher. Over a dozen western communities in Minnesota reported afternoon temperatures of 90s degrees F or greater. This heat was a precursor to drought in northwestern Minnesota that year.

The coldest April 20th in state history was in 2013, when an Arctic air mass brought subzero temperature readings to over a dozen communities in northern Minnesota. Even in southern areas of the state temperatures fell to the single digits and teens.

Outlook Plenty of sun under partly cloudy skies over the weekend, with warming temperatures. Sunday’s temperatures will be the first above normal readings since March 28th, and if the forecast high of 63 degrees F is reached for MSP it will be the first temperature that high since October 22 of last autumn. More cloudiness and slightly cooler Monday and Tuesday with a chance for rain by Tuesday. Warmer again towards the end of next week.

Preliminary Climate Summary for April Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 27, 2018 By Mark Seeley

April of 2018 will be remembered as cold and snowy for most Minnesota citizens. The average temperature for most communities ranged from 9 to 12 degrees F colder than normal. On a statewide basis it was the 5th coldest April back to 1895, only 1950, 1907, 1909, and 1920 were colder. For the Twin Cities (MSP) it was the 4th coldest April back to 1873, only 1874, 1907, and 1950 were colder. Within the Minnesota climate network over 500 daily record cold minimum temperature or cold maximum temperature records were set or tied. Extreme temperatures for the month ranged from -11 degrees F at Ely on the 8th, to over 80 degrees F at several locations on April 30th (forecasted to be that high). Roughly 85 percent of all days in April brought cooler than normal temperature conditions.

Moisture-wise the southern counties were generally wetter than normal, while the north was drier than normal. Many southern communities reported 3 to 4 inches of precipitation, while some northern climate stations received less than 1.5 inches. Snowfall was a big headline during April, as many Minnesota climate stations reported record amounts. The largest storm was the blizzard and heavy snow over April 13-16. MSP reported 15.8 inches of snowfall during that storm, the 12th highest snowstorm total in history. You can view the others ranked among the top 20 historically at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Over 150 daily snowfall records were broken or tied within the state climate network during the month. In addition, over 100 observers reported 20 inches or more during the month. New records for total April snowfall were common, including:

33.3” at Bricelyn 32.1” at Lakefield 27.0” at Albert Lea 29.6” at Lake Wilson 31.5” at Winnebago 22.9” at Waseca 37.0” at Tracy 23.0” at Lake City 36.9” at Canby 26.1” at MSP 26.0” at St James

Weekly Weather Potpourri April has been a windy and dry month in Oklahoma. This has produced a number of wildfires which have been a serious threat there. NOAA this week features an article about the conditions that have caused these fires. Nearly 300,000 acres of land has been burned in Oklahoma so far this month. Firefighters are still struggling to control them in some areas.

Tornado Alley has been unusually quiet so far in 2018. For states like Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri this may be one of the latest starts ever to the severe weather season. Little or no tornado activity has been reported from many of these states. You can read more from the BBC.

Sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding will negatively impact freshwater resources on many low-lying atoll islands in such a way that many could be uninhabitable in just a few decades. A recent U.S. Geological Survey study suggests that many of these islands in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean may become uninhabitable in the next several decades as they lose freshwater supply.

A recent article in EOS documents how satellite data are now more frequently helping meteorologists forecast snowfall rates. This is a big step forward in forecasting and may be applied more broadly in the future.

MPR listener question I heard you say last week the Tracy, MN (Lyon County) had reported a record 37 inches of snow for the month. What is the state record for the month of April?

Answer Actually, there have been two Aprils in the past ten years when some Minnesota climate stations reported over 40 inches of snowfall, both 2008 and 2013. The all-time April snowfall record is from Island Lake, just outside Duluth on the north shore of Lake Superior where they received 55.6 inches in 2013. That particular April also brought over 50 inches of snowfall to Duluth and Two Harbors.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 27th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 42 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 27th MSP records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 85 degrees F in 1977; lowest daily maximum temperature of 34-degree F in 1950; lowest daily minimum temperature of 21 degrees F in 1909; highest daily minimum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1938 and 1974; record precipitation of 2.22 inches in 1975. Record snowfall on this date is 8.5 inches in 1907.

Average dew point for April 27th is 36°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 65°F in 1986; and the minimum dew point on this date is 8°F in 1934.

All-time state records for April 27th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 96 degrees F at Hallock (Kittson County) in 1952; the all-time state low for today's date is 7 degrees F at Brimson (St Louis County) in 1996. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 3.76 inches at Cambridge (Isanti County) in 1975. Record snowfall is 14.0 inches at Ottertail (Otter Tail County) in 2008.

Past Weather Features At the end of a snowy month, April 27, 1909 brought many record cold temperatures including single digit lows to many northern Minnesota communities. The afternoon high temperature at Roseau and Baudette on that day was only 30 degrees F, with snow still on the ground.

By far the warmest April 27th in state history was in 1952 when afternoon high temperatures of 90 degrees F or greater were reported from over 20 communities around the state. There was also high fire danger as some afternoon relative humidity readings were less than 20 percent.

A big late season snowstorm on April 27, 2008 made travel very difficult across sections of northern Minnesota. Some climate stations reported 6 to 14 inches of heavy, wet snow.

Outlook Sunny, but cooler than normal on Saturday around the state, then a warming trend starts on Sunday, bringing temperatures that will rise above normal, reaching perhaps the 70s and 80s F by Monday. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on late Sunday through early Tuesday, then cooler again for Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

Time for Farmers and Gardeners Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 04, 2018 By Mark Seeley

As the soil has warmed up, and fields have dried out, many Minnesota farmers are just starting to take equipment out into the fields to prepare for planting, one of the latest planting seasons in state history. The latest planting season in my memory as Extension Climatologist was 1979, when half of the state’s corn acreage (about 7 million acres) did not get planted until May 21st, and half of the soybean crop until May 27th. That made for a late and wet fall harvest season in 1979 because farmers had to wait for the corn crop to mature. Perhaps modern corn hybrids dry down faster than the old ones, but it still makes farmers antsy to be planting so late. I suspect farmers will be working 20-hour days until they get their crops in the ground.

Gardeners who are eager to get going should probably begin to remove mulch, fertilize, plant seeds, and transplant those seedlings that were started indoors. There is little threat of frost on the horizon, especially across southern Minnesota counties. In fact, the month of May is more likely to turn out warmer than normal, as opposed to last month. Soil temperatures are no longer an impediment to planting.

Who Would Have Thought? With one of the top 5 coldest Aprils in state history, who would have guessed the last day of the month would bring such remarkable temperatures (12 to 15 degrees F above normal). Over 50 climate stations reported an afternoon high temperature of 80 degrees F or greater, topped by 85 degrees F at Marshall. The Twin Cities hit 84 degrees F; a temperature only seen in April about once in every five years!

Weekly Weather Potpourri Today, May 4th is National Weather Observers Day. Hats off and thanks to all the thousands of citizens who voluntarily record the daily weather for the NOAA-National Weather Service, State Climatology Office, and other monitoring agencies throughout the USA. In Minnesota we are blessed to have well over 1500 such volunteers.

East-central and north-central counties of Minnesota remain in a high fire danger category. With no major rainstorms expected over the next several days, there is likely to be a high fire danger through the weekend. Some afternoon relative humidity readings will hover in the range of only 15 to 20 percent.

Earlier this week, the Yale Climate Connection pointed out a very interesting essay published by Rosemary Randall, titled the “The id and the eco.” This article deals with not only the cognitive side of the climate change issue, but the emotional side and how it stands in the way of having open dialogue among our communities.

The United Kingdom Meteorological Office features an interesting article about Hay Fever this week, debunking the myth that it can spread from person to person. Given that the pollen season is upon us here in Minnesota, it might be worth a read.

MPR listener question I am a resident of Lake City, MN. I noticed that ice-out on Lake Pepin did not occur this year until April 20th, but that was not a record for lateness. According to the DNR, ice out on Lake Pepin in 1843 was not until May 20th. Still this year seems unusually late for ice-out down here. How does it rank historically?

Answer The April 20th date for ice-out on Lake Pepin ranks as the 6th latest in history, tied with 1869, 1875, 1885, and 1899. It was the latest ice out date since 1904 (April 21). As you know, ice-out is an important date for barge traffic to resume on the Mississippi River.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 4th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 4th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 91 degrees F in 1952; lowest daily maximum temperature of 36 degree F in 1944; lowest daily minimum temperature of 22 degrees F in 1967; highest daily minimum temperature of 65 degrees F in 1934; record precipitation of 1.01 inches in 1959. Record snowfall on this date is 2.0 inches in 1890.

Average dew point for May 4th is 40°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 73°F in 1912; and the minimum dew point on this date is 13°F in 1957.

All-time state records for May 4th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 96 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) and Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1949; the all-time state low for today's date is 8 degrees F at Cloquet (Carlton County) in 1911. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 4.00 inches at Blanchard (Morrison County) in 1949. Record snowfall is 5.0 inches at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1890.

Past Weather Features An unusual storm brought 2-4 inches of snowfall across the state over May 4-5, 1890. Though short-lived, cool temperatures following the storm kept farmers from planting for over two weeks.

The two warmest May 4ths in state history were in 1949 and 1952. Scores of communities reported afternoon high temperatures in the 90s F, and as is common for that time of year, the fire danger was high in western Minnesota counties with very low relative humidity as well.

May 4, 1974 brought a hard freeze too much of northern and western Minnesota. Morning lows fell into the 20s F at more than 40 climate stations and it was just 12 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County). Many gardeners complained of plants being damaged by the freeze, but most plants recovered.

Outlook Weekend will start out warmer than normal, with a chance for widely scattered showers or thunderstorms late in the day on Saturday. Then, a cool down on Sunday with temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. Generally dry until Tuesday and Wednesday when there will be a widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms, followed by a sunny period towards the end of next week.

Warm Start to May, But Way Behind on Planting Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 11, 2018 By Mark Seeley

So far temperatures are averaging above normal for the month of May. Over the first ten days average daily temperature is 1 to 3 degrees F above normal in the north, and 5 to 8 degrees F above normal in southern counties. On May 7th it was as warm as 89 degrees F at Crookston, Wheaton, and Granite Falls. Except for the far north, few places have reported a frost in May. For the Twin Cities it is the warmest first ten days of May (ave temp about 64°F) since the year 2000. As a result of the warmth, more lakes are expected to lose ice before the Fishing Opener on Saturday, but some in the far north will obviously still have ice.

Thunderstorms have brought heavy rains to southern parts of the state. Already places like Caledonia, Houston, Harmony, and Lanesboro have seen over 4 inches for the month. At least 16 daily rainfall records have been tied or broken within the Minnesota climate network, including 2.23” at Harmony on the 2nd, 1.94” at Caledonia on the 4th, and 1.43” at Grand Meadow on the 4th.

Because of wet soils, only recently have farmers been making progress on planting corn around the state, mostly in western and central counties. Many southern counties remain too wet. For the week ending on May 6th only 9 percent of the corn was planted. Hopefully a mostly dry next week will allow for a great deal of corn planting.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA features an article by Rebecca Lindsey this week about the signature warmth of the year 2016 in the Arctic region, where some daily temperature departures were 30 to 40 degrees F warmer than normal. She documents how this unprecedented warmth is definitely a signature of climate change, and describes the evidence.

Earlier this week the BBC reported the warmest early May Bank Holiday in the modern record for the United Kingdom, with temperatures soaring into the 80s F, and many citizens flocking to the beaches. Temperatures were averaging a good 15-20 degrees F warmer than normal over the first weekend of the month.

The Yale Climate Connections this week features an interview by Amy Brady with Richard Powers, author of “The Overstory.” He talks about the legacy of the battle to preserve the majestic northwest woods and forests and how people from different walks of life commonly value such features.

MPR listener question My goodness (I usually use stronger language, but in case this gets on the radio) here near Caledonia we have already received nearly 5 inches of rain this month, keeping me out of my fields. I just hope to get planted by Memorial Day. Can you tell me the record amount of rainfall for the month of May here?

Answer The record May rainfall at Caledonia (Houston County) is 11.63 inches in 2004. It rained on 21 days that month. That broke an old record of 11.13 inches of rain during May of 1902. BTW in 2013 the month of May brought 14.64 inches of rain to Grand Meadow (Mower County) just a little west of you. This is a state record.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 11th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 47 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 11th: MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 88 degrees F in 1900; lowest daily maximum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1914 and 1966; lowest daily minimum temperature of 27 F in 1946; highest daily minimum temperature of 64 F in 1881, 1915 and 1922; record precipitation of 1.55 inches in 1935 (2.10 inches in the Pioneer records of 1882); and 2.8 inches of snowfall was recorded on this date in 1946.

Average dew point for May 11th is 40 degrees F, with a maximum of 66 degrees F in 1922 and a minimum of 14 degrees F in 1946.

All-time state records for May 11th The state record high temperature for this date is 104 degrees F at Blue Earth (Faribault County) in 2011. The state record low temperature for this date is 11 degrees F at Fosston (Polk County) in 1946; state record precipitation for this date is 4.60 inches at Crookston (Polk County) in 1922; and state record snowfall for this date is 3.0 inches at Isle (Mille Lacs County County) in 1966 and at Tower (St Louis County) in 2008.

Past Weather Features The coldest May 11th in state history was in 1946 when 30 climate stations reported a morning low temperature in the teens. The high temperature at Warroad never rose above 32 degrees F that day.

A rare May snowstorm slowed the pace of corn planting on May 11, 1966. Many parts of southern and central Minnesota reported 1 to 3 inches of snow. Fortunately, it was very short-lived, and corn planting resumed in two days.

On a statewide basis, May 11, 1987 was the warmest in state history with over 30 climate stations reporting afternoon highs of 90 degrees F or higher. Afternoon relative humidity values ranged from the teens into the 20s F making for a high-risk fire danger as well.

Outlook Generally cloudy and cooler than normal with a chance for showers in the south on Saturday. Partly cloudy and warmer on Sunday, with a return of above normal temperatures. Sunny and warmer yet on Monday, then a chance for showers later on Tuesday. Then generally dry much of the rest of next week.

Warm May Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 18, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Temperatures continue to average well above normal this month. May 16th brought daytime temperatures of 85 to 90 degrees F to over 60 communities across the state, topped by 91 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) and 90 degrees F at Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County). So far this month temperatures are averaging 4 to 6 degrees F warmer than normal in most places and at least a dozen climate stations have reported one new daily record high. The warm weather combined with several dry days allowed for Minnesota farmers to catch up a bit on planting crops. Over 50 percent of the roughly 7 million acres of corn has been planted. But in southeastern Minnesota counties where over 6 inches of rain has fallen so far this month, there are still fields too wet to plant. Undoubtedly over the next week as corn planting wraps up, farmers will move onto planting soybeans.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Nearly a month’s worth of wildfires has plagued portions of eastern Siberia in Russia. Over 16 square miles of landscape has burned, and ashes and smoke have displaced some residents there. This area of Russia has seen an increased frequency of wildfires due to a warming climate over the past decade or so according to the Weather Underground.

A recent article in Frontiers in Marine Science documents how climate change across Greenland in recent decades has changed the behavioral pattern and habitat range for polar bears there. This has been well documented by the Inuit hunters.

Dr. Harold Brooks from the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma, along with other NOAA scientists has published a daily climatological perspective on the frequency of tornadoes across the country. Some parts of southern Minnesota fall into the same daily probability category as parts of Kansas.

With expected sunshine and nearly ideal temperature conditions the BBC expects huge crowds to show up near Windsor to watch the carriages go by for the Royal Wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle on Saturday (May 19).

MPR listener question What is the latest date for snow in the Twin Cities, and what about statewide? Has there ever been snow in June?

Answer The latest date for measurable snowfall in the Twin Cities climate record is May 24, 1925 when 0.1 inches of snow was reported. There was a trace of snow as late as June 1, 1946 in St Paul. On a statewide basis 1.5 inches of snow fell at Mizpah (Koochiching County) on June 4, 1935, the latest date in the state records.

Twin Cities Almanac for May18th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 70 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 50 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May18th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 93 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 45 degree F in 1890; lowest daily minimum temperature of 27 degrees F in 1915; highest daily minimum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1911; record precipitation of 1.57 inches in 1892. Record snowfall on this date is 2.0 inches in 1915.

Average dew point for May18th is 46°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 69°F in 1962; and the minimum dew point on this date is 20°F in 1981.

All-time state records for May 18th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 101 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1934; the all-time state low for today's date is 16 degrees F at Duluth (St Louis County) in 1924. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 5.01 inches at Lanesboro (Fillmore County) in 2000. Record snowfall is 3.0 inches at Minneapolis (Hennepin County) in 1915.

Past Weather Features Snow fell across portions of Minnesota on May 18 in both 1915 and 1968. In 1915 snowfall ranging from 1 to 3 inches fell mostly across central and northern Minnesota counties. In 1968 from 1 to 3 inches of snow fell across portions of northeastern Minnesota, and portions of Highways 61 and 2 we reported to be slippery with ice.

A late spring freeze caused damage to small grains in northern Minnesota on May 18, 1924. Over 20 climate stations reported morning lows in the 20s F, while the daytime temperature never rose above 38 degrees F at International Falls.

By far the warmest May 18 in state history was in 1934 when over 20 communities reported an afternoon high of 90 degrees F or greater. Both Pipestone and Fairmont surpassed 100 degrees F, and the temperature at Albert Lea never dropped below 69 degrees F even at night.

Outlook Chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday with temperatures slightly either side of normal for this time of year. A warmer than normal temperature trend will begin by next Tuesday and much of next week will be dry as well.

Hot, with a Dry Pattern Emerging in the North Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 28, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Nearly through the month of May now and a pronounced dry pattern has emerged in the northern part of Minnesota. Some climate stations are 1.5 to 3.0 inches below normal for the month and 3 to 5 inches below normal since April 1st. Over 50 percent of the state’s landscape is abnormally dry, while portions of Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Roseau, and Koochiching Counties are in moderate drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Persistent warmer than normal temperatures for the balance of May will exacerbate the dryness, as daytime highs consistently reach 85 to 100 degrees F in many parts of the state. In fact, based on the forecasts through May 31 the state will record one of the hottest months of May in history ranking with 1977, 1934, and 1988. Though statewide temperature records have not been broken, Fairmont, Tracy, Worthington, Canby, and Madison have all seen the mercury rise to 100 degrees F this month (on the 27th). The Twin Cities will likely record its 2nd hottest May, surpassed only by that of 1934 when a temperature of 106 degrees F closed the month on the 31st. For the Twin Cities only three other Mays have brought 4 consecutive days with temperatures in the 90s F, and those were 1874, 1934, and 1988. It is likely the Twin Cities will record 6 consecutive days in the 90s F during the current Heat Wave. More about May Heat Waves can be found at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms may help offset this warmth, but I suspect by the end of the month more counties in Minnesota may fall into the moderate drought category as well. The outlook for June favors continued warm temperatures but equal chances for above or below normal precipitation.

Heat as a Health Risk for School Children A recent Facebook post by Joe Nathan, former Director of the Center for School Change at the Humphrey Institute made me think more about climate change and school safety in Minnesota. Besides severe weather (tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding), heat is one of the most serious threats to the health of school children, in many areas the most serious. Fortunately, in our Minnesota climate history we have recorded relatively few episodes of this, with sporadic days of 90-degree F heat in May and September. The frequency of extreme heat during the school year is likely to continue to increase as our climate changes, and we already have evidence for this emerging in the trends of recent years. Since 2000 there have been 7 Mays that have brought two or more days of 90°F temperatures, and 7 Septembers (including the record-setting hot one of 2016) that have produced similar frequency of 90-degree F heat.

The current Heat Wave episode around the state has brought 5-6 consecutive days of 90-degree F temperatures to scores of communities, with 100°F reached in a number of western Minnesota locations. Many of these days occurred over the Memorial Weekend when schools were closed. Nevertheless, many schools are not air conditioned and structurally designed so that they store a great deal of heat. In this context, when schools resume on May 29th, it is likely that the buildings will be quite hot and uncomfortable, most likely to the extent that children will not be able to be as attentive as needed in the classroom, and perhaps will need reminders about drinking water to stay hydrated, and not overdoing exercise at recess. In this context there should be more administrative attention paid to policy guidelines for limited recess, earlier than normal dismissal, nurse staffing, school cancellations, etc. These threats to children’s health are very real and should be seriously considered…many scientists like myself would simply say this is an important “climate adaptation” that should not be ignored.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Tropical Cyclone Sagar in the Gulf of Aden made landfall in Somalia last week. It is quite rare for the Horn of Africa to be affected by tropical cyclones. According to weather records only two other tropical cyclones have made landfall in this part of Africa, one in 2015 and one in 1984. Sagar brought heavy rains and flash flooding to parts of Somalia which has been mostly in drought over the past five years.

Speaking of tropical cyclones, Cyclone Mekunu was heading for the coasts of Yemen and Oman in the Middle East this week. It is a significant storm with large bands of heavy rain, wind gusts over 100 mph and sea waves of 25-30 feet. It is expected to make landfall by Saturday.

Tropical Storm Alberto will bring strong winds, high seas, and heavy rain to the Florida Panhandle this weekend. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible for parts of Florida, and some areas will see winds well over 50 mph.

MPR listener question Seeing the forecast for a hot weekend made me wonder how often temperatures reach 90 degrees F or warmer in the Twin Cities over Memorial Weekend?

Answer Over the past 145 years in the Twin Cities climate record the daily maximum temperature has reached 90 degrees F on at least one day of the Memorial Weekend 20 times, or about one year in every 7. So, this is somewhat unusual. The consecutive days of temperatures of 90 degrees F or higher is much more unusual.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 25th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 72 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 52 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 25th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees F in 1978; lowest daily maximum temperature of 48 degree F in 1904; lowest daily minimum temperature of 33 degrees F in 1901; highest daily minimum temperature of 70 degrees F in 1914; record precipitation of 1.88 inches in 1942. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for May 25th is 47°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 72°F in 1916; and the minimum dew point on this date is 23°F in 1998.

All-time state records for May 25th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 100 degrees F at Luverne (Rock County) in 1967; the all-time state low for today's date is 19 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1983. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 4.32 inches at St James (Watonwan County) in 1953. Record snowfall is 4.0 inches at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1970.

Past Weather Features Strong thunderstorms brought 2-5 inches of rain to many parts of southern Minnesota on May 25, 1953. Some county roads in Pipestone and Watonwan Counties were washed out and had to be repaired in the middle of the planting season.

An unusual storm brought 2-4 inches of snow across portions of Beltrami, Koochiching, and Lake of the Woods Counties over May 25-26, 1970. Some fishermen on Lake of the Woods had to bring their boat ashore as they could not see in the heavy snowfall, with 4 inches falling in just over 2 hours.

By far the warmest May 25th in state history was in 1967 when over 30 communities reported daytime highs of 90 degrees F or greater. There was a risk of wildfires too as winds were gusty and relative humidity was very low that day.

Widespread frosts occurred in northern and western parts of Minnesota on May 25, 1983. Many climate stations reported morning lows ranging from 20 degrees F to 30 degrees F. Where crop damage was significant, fields were replanted.

Outlook A hot conclusion to May. Many areas will see daytime highs in the 90s over the weekend, perhaps the mid-90s on Sunday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms by late Monday and next Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime temperatures dropping back into the 80s F, still warmer than normal for this time of year.

May 2018 Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 01, 2018 By Mark Seeley

After recording the second coldest April in state history (trailing only 1950), May took off in the opposite direction to finish as the third warmest in state (trailing only 1977 and 1934). In fact, for the Twin Cities back to 1873 May of 2018 was the 2nd warmest in history (mean temperature 67.8°F in 2018 compared to 68.7°F in May of 1934). Most climate observers reported a mean monthly temperature for May that was 5 to 8 degrees F warmer than normal. Over 60 percent of the state landscape saw at least one day with a temperature of 90 degrees F or higher, while at least 15 communities recorded a maximum temperature of 100 degrees F or warmer, topped by 102 degrees F at Amboy (Blue Earth County) and Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on the 28th. In fact, places in Minnesota were hotter than Tucson or Phoenix, Arizona on May 28th, an unusual occurrence historically. MSP for the first time reported six consecutive days in May with 90 F temperatures or greater (the 23rd to the 29th). Within the Minnesota state climate station network 109 daily maximum temperature records were tied or broken during the month. The lowest temperature measured during May in Minnesota was 21 degrees F at Brimson and Cook (St Louis County) on the 11th.

May of 2018 was generally drier than normal in central and northern counties and wetter than normal in southern counties. Many southern communities reported 6 to 9 inches of rainfall during the month. With the climate station network 35 new daily rainfall records were set during the month. In southeastern Minnesota both Hokah and Houston reported new total May rainfall records of over 9 inches. In some southern Minnesota counties planting progress for this year's corn and soybean crops was exceedingly slow, going until the end of the month. At month’s end approximately 56 percent of the state landscape was drier than normal, mostly in the central and northern parts.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA features a wide range of climate adaptation and climate resilience training courses with a number of practical applications that may apply to your community. These courses are worth checking out to see if they apply to your local community situation.

NOAA forecasters also predicted a near or above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season during 2018, with a likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms. Near or above normal numbers of tropical storms are also expected for the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean regions during 2018.

Heavy rains and thunderstorms plagued portions of the United Kingdom on Thursday and Friday, bringing flooded streets, as well as rail and air traffic delays. Some of the

storms delivered 2 to 4 inches of rain, especially to parts of Wales, Northern Ireland and Ireland. More heavy rains are expected over Scotland this weekend.

Geophysical Research Letters featured a study recently from scientists at Portland State University showing a strong relationships between lightning strikes initiated wildfires and global climate change (warming temperatures) in the Mediterranean counties as well as those in the temperature zones of the Southern Hemisphere.

MPR listener question Did anyone in Minnesota report snow during the month of May 2018?

Answer The only report of snow was a trace on May 11th at Pipestone, perhaps unexpected after such a snowy April.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 1st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 73 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 53 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 1st MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 92 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1945: lowest daily minimum temperature is 37 degrees F in 1946; highest daily minimum temperature of 72 degrees F in 1939; record precipitation of 237 inches in 2014; and there was a trace snow in St Paul on this date in 1946.

Average dew point for June 1st is 48 degrees F, with a maximum of 73 degrees F in 1944 and a minimum of 29 degrees F in 1910.

All-time state records for June 1st The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at Chaska (Carver County) in 1934. The state record low temperature for this date is 15 degrees F at Bigfork (Itasca County) in 1964. State record precipitation for this date is 7.98 inches at Stillwater (Washington County) in 1967; and only traces of snow have fallen on this date historically, mostly in northern Minnesota counties.

Past Weather Features Following the warmest May in state history, June 1, 1934 was the hottest in history as well, with a dozen communities reporting afternoon temperatures of 100 degrees F or greater. At Winona the temperature never fell below 79 degrees F, even at night.

By far the coldest June 1st in state history occurred in 1964. Over 50 Minnesota climate stations reported frost, and four communities in northern Minnesota saw temperatures drop into the teens F. Frost was reported in Wabasha County where some corn fields had to be replanted.

Persistent thunderstorms brought record setting rainfall to many parts of Minnesota over May 31 to June 2, 1965. Areas around the Twin Cities Metro Counties reported 4 to 6 inches, and widespread flooding of roads and highways occurred. The Mississippi River between St Paul and Hastings rose again after having receded from record flooding earlier that spring.

Outlook Mostly cloudy on Saturday statewide with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, along with cooler than normal temperatures. Continuing cooler than normal on Sunday, with breezy NW winds, but more sun than cloud. Warming trend begins on Monday taking temperatures back to a few degrees warmer than normal. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

June off to a mixed start Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 08, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Following a near historic warm May (4th warmest in state history), through the first week of June the pattern of temperature across Minnesota is mixed with near normal or cooler than normal temperatures dominating northern counties and above normal temperatures prevalent across the central and southern counties. Fifteen climate stations in the south have already seen 90 degrees F or higher this month, topped by 99°F at Marshall. In the north as per usual Brimson, Embarrass, and Hibbing have reported frosty mornings in June with some temperatures below 32 degrees F. Of course, bear in mind that those places in Minnesota have reported below freezing temperatures in every month of the year.

From the standpoint of moisture many northern parts of the state have already measured from 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in June, and a few places over two inches. Some parts of southeastern Minnesota which were very wet in May have seen little precipitation so far, with many reporting less than a quarter of an inch.

June is expected to continue to be warmer than normal around most of the state, and wetter than normal as well.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA reported earlier this week that May of 2018 was the warmest in history on a nationwide basis, surpassing the record warmth of May of 1934 by 0.7 degrees F. Further over 8600 daily temperature records were set or tied during the month across the nation. Overall the minimum temperatures in May deviated from the norm, more than the maximum temperatures, a trend very evident in Minnesota over the past two decades.

June 11-13 NOAA is sponsoring a workshop in Flagstaff, AZ to assess “The Changing Southwest Environment: Trends &Challenges.” During 2017 both Arizona and New Mexico reported their warmest years in history. Along with increasing and persistent drought and increased fire danger there, state and local unites of government are giving more attention to climate issues than ever before.

The NOAA National Hurricane Center was reporting the Aletta was intensifying well off the west coast of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. On Thursday it had reported wind speeds of 100 mph. Fortunately it was expected to remain out to sea over the weekend, though it will produce some large waves along the coastal areas of Mexico.

AGU provides a narrative and review this week about Michael Mann's new book " The Tantrum that Saved the World." It is an interesting read about the acceptance of climate change as an important societal issue.

MPR listener question Here in Dodge County, we have hardly seen any rainfall so far in June. The boys in the coffee shop were asking if there has ever been a June with zero rainfall? We thought we would ask you.

Answer To the best of my knowledge there has never been a June with zero rainfall in Dodge County, MN. However, in Rochester during June of 1910 there was no rain at all recorded. One of the rare times this has happened anywhere in the state.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 8th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 77 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 8th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 102 degrees F in 1985; lowest daily maximum temperature of 54 degrees F in 1937: lowest daily minimum temperature is 36 degrees F in 1885; highest daily minimum temperature of 71 degrees F in 2012; record precipitation of 2.12 inches in 1918; and there has been no snow on this date.

Average dew point for June 8th is 53 degrees F, with a maximum of 78 degrees F in 1911 and a minimum of 31 degrees F in 1980.

All-time state records for June 8th The state record high temperature for this date is 102 degrees F at Chaska (Carver County) in 1985. The state record low temperature for this date is 20 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1935. State record precipitation for this date is 8.07 inches at Thief River Falls (Pennington County) in 2001; and no snow has fallen on this date in the state.

Past Weather Features June 8, 1985 was the hottest in state history. Over two-thirds of the state saw temperatures soar to 90 degrees F or higher. Twenty-five climate stations reached 100 degrees F or greater. Fortunately, temperatures cooled off into the 60s F by June 11th.

One of the stormiest and wettest periods of history in northwestern Minnesota was over June 8-11, 2002. Numerous thunderstorms followed the same path across many northwestern counties bringing 5 to 10 inches of rain. Portions of Lake of the Woods County saw up to a foot of rain fall. The Roseau River reached an all-time flood crest, as a result of these storms.

Outlook Continued warmer than normal temperatures throughout the weekend with a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, then drier Sunday. There will be a chance for more rain on Monday, then somewhat cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some Perspectives on June Heat Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 15, 2018 By Mark Seeley

On a statewide basis 14 of the past 20 Junes have been warmer than normal, four of them ranking among the 20 warmest in state history.

For the Twin Cities June usually brings 2-3 days with temperatures of 90 degrees F or greater. In some areas of northeastern Minnesota June rarely brings a 90 F day, while in western portions of the state 3-4 days of 90 F temperatures are common.

In the Twin Cities June Heat Waves of two-days duration or longer with a Heat Index Value of 95 degrees F or higher, occur about once every four years. The last prolonged June Heat Wave was in 2001 when Heat Index Values of 95 degrees F or greater were measure for five consecutive days. During June of 1931 there were 7 days with a Heat Index Value of 95 F or higher.

Though we have not seen 90 degrees F this month in the Twin Cities, looks like this Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be our first dose of June Heat with 90 F temperatures and dew points approaching 70 degrees F. Fortunately this heat will be short-lived as we will cool down sharply by Monday of next week.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA offers a map depiction of Severe Weather Climatology across the country in terms of the historical frequencies of severe weather reports including high winds, hail, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes.

The UK Meteorological Office provides some insights about what causes the allergy season to sometimes be so severe. They also describe the various pollen seasons and how they are working with the National Health Service to improve forecasts that relate to the pollen seasons.

This week it was reported that New Delhi, India has been experience a prolonged spell of serious air pollution, quite hazardous for transportation due to low visibility, and also for public health as many citizens there have taken to wearing masks. In some areas of the city, pollution has reached 30 times the maximum threshold recommended by the World Health Organization. In addition, daily high temperatures have been between 103 degrees F and 110 degrees F.

MPR listener question Some of us at Nick’s Downtown Diner in Cannon Falls were remembering this week 6 years ago when we got nearly 9 inches of rain in less than 24-hours and the Cannon River subsequently hit an all-time flood crest. Then Duluth got a 10-inch rainfall the very next week. How many places in Minnesota have recorded 9 or more inches of rain in one day?

Answer There are not too many places considering we have nearly 150 years of climate records. Here are those relatively long-term climate stations that have:

Hokah (Houston County) August 19, 2007 15.10 inches Altura (Winona County) August 19, 2007 11.45 inches Fort Ripley (Crow Wing County) July 22, 1972 10.84 inches Two Harbors (Lake County) June 20, 2012 10.45 inches Duluth (St Louis County) June 19, 2012 (overnight) 10.00 inches Bagley (Clearwater County) July20, 1909 10.00 inches Isle (Mille Lacs County) July 22, 1972 9.80 inches Milan (Chippewa County) July 4, 1995 9.78 inches Amboy (Blue Earth County) September 23, 2010 9.48 inches Bricelyn (Faribault County) September 14, 2004 9.22 inches MSP (Hennepin County) July 23, 1987 9.15 inches Fosston (Polk County) July 19, 1909 9.00 inches

Twin Cities Almanac for June 15th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 79 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 59 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 15th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees F in 1913; lowest daily maximum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1945: lowest daily minimum temperature is 41 degrees F in 1989; highest daily minimum temperature of 71 degrees F in 2007; record precipitation of 2.80 inches in 1874; and there has been no snow on this date.

Average dew point for June 15th is 54 degrees F, with a maximum of 73 degrees F in 1952 and a minimum of 32 degrees F in 1961.

All-time state records for June 15th The state record high temperature for this date is 106 degrees F at Lamberton (Redwood County) in 1979. The state record low temperature for this date is 24 degrees F at Meadowlands (St Louis County) in 1917. State record precipitation for this date is 8.83 inches at Cannon Falls (Goodhue County) in 2012; and no snow has fallen on this date in the state.

Past Weather Features Frost came to many northern parts of Minnesota on June 15, 1917. Over a dozen communities saw the thermometer drop into the 20s F overnight, and 25 counties reported frost. In some cases, it was damaging to the wheat crop.

The hottest June 15th statewide was in 1979 when over a dozen communities reported a temperature of 100 degrees F or better. Most of the state was blanketed by 90 F temperatures, the cool spot being Two Harbors with 78 degrees F. In many areas the temperature never dropped below 70 degrees F overnight. The heat had little damaging effect on crops, as it was a late planting season, and many crops were in the early stages of growth.

Intense thunderstorms brought massive flooding to portions of Goodhue, Rice, and Dakota Counties over June 14-15, 2012. Rainfall amounts of 5 to nearly 9 inches were reported. Many roads were closed, and a record flood crest went down the Cannon River.

Outlook Hot, sticky weekend coming up, especially south of the I94 corridor. Many will see high temperatures in the 90s F and warm nights in the 70s F. Chance for showers and thunderstorms as well, especially on Saturday night and early Sunday. Cooler on Monday and Tuesday, then warming a bit on Wednesday and Thursday.

Wet, Warm June Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 22, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Despite the recent moderation, temperatures are continuing to average above normal this month. So far this June ranks among the 20 warmest historically on a statewide basis. Last week over Father’s Day weekend many Minnesota climate stations reported record high temperatures. Among those seeing record highs on June 15th were: MSP with 95°F, Amboy with 95°F, Granite Falls with 96°F, and Minnesota City with 91°F.

For Saturday, June 16th a few more high temperature records were set, including 97°F at Marshall, 95°F at St James, 94°F at Redwood Falls and Rosemount, and 93°F at Wells and Owatonna.

Sunday, June 17th brought a couple of more record highs as well with 92°F at Amboy and 91°F at Redwood Falls.

Record high dew points were abundant over Father’s Day weekend as well, ranging from the low to upper 70s F. Thanks to the high water vapor content, the Heat Index values across many parts of southern Minnesota soared and ranged from 95°F to 103°F. MSP set a new dew point record on June 16th with a reading of 78°F, and another new dew point record on the 17th with a reading of 75°F. You can read more on last weekend’s Heat Wave at the Minnesota State Climatology web site.

Last weekend also brought numerous thunderstorms to the state, and very heavy rains in some places. Many climate stations reported 3 to 5 inches of rain. Two Harbors reported a record 5.70 inches, Moose Lake a record 4.30 inches, and Leech Lake a record 3.10 inches on the 17th. Many climate stations in northwestern Wisconsin also recorded some record-setting rainfalls, including a multi-day total of over 15 inches at Drummond. With these rainfalls many climate stations in both Minnesota and Wisconsin have now received 6-10 inches of rain so far this month. New Ulm with over 10 inches of rain so far, reports the 3rd wettest June in history, surpassed only by 11.15 inches in 1925, and 14.05 inches in 2014.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA features an article about the wildfires burning this month in Southwestern Colorado. These are related to the ongoing drought there, but also perhaps to climate change.

The BBC Weather Centre features a nice video of noctilucent (night shining) clouds, the highest clouds in the Earth’s atmosphere. They are sometimes visible shortly after sunset, appearing as bluish, very high cirrus clouds.

From Science Daily this week: In a new study in Science Advances, researchers at Columbia University describe a way to quickly sift through thousands of hours of field recordings to estimate when songbirds reached their breeding grounds on Alaska's North Slope. They trained an algorithm on a subset of the data to pick out bird song from wind, trucks and other noise, and estimate, from the amount of time the birds spent singing and calling each day, when they had arrived en masse.

In AGU EOS this week there is an interesting article about the measurement of soil moisture, an important attribute for agriculture that exhibits a very high degree of variability. New remote sensing technology is being applied to improve our measurements and spatial characterization.

MPR listener question Here just east of Mankato we have recorded almost 10 inches of rain so far this month. Can you tell us what the record for June is in this area of the state, and what is the maximum amount of rain ever in June for Minnesota?

Answer You are already in rare territory as it has rained a total of 10 or more inches in the Mankato area only 3 times during June since 1904 (1908, 1925, 2014). The all-time wettest was in 2014 when 13.21 inches fell. As for the all-time wettest June anywhere in the state, that was also in 2014 when Edgerton (Pipestone County) recorded 16.51 inches.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 22nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 81 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 61 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 22nd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 1911; lowest daily maximum temperature of 57 degree F in 1906; lowest daily minimum temperature of 42 degrees F in 1960; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1923; record precipitation of 2.12 inches in 1930. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for June 22nd is 56°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 80°F in 1983; and the minimum dew point on this date is 27°F in 1972.

All-time state records for June 22nd The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 107 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1988; the all-time state low for today's date is 20 degrees F at 77

Kelliher (Beltrami County) in 2001. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 5.42 inches at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1957. No snowfall has been reported on this date.

Past Weather Features About 4:00 pm on June 22, 1919 an F-5 (winds 261 mph) raced across Otter Tail County and leveled 400 buildings in Fergus Falls leaving "a vast acreage of kindling." The famous Lake Alice Grand Hotel was destroyed. The funnel traveled 20 miles on the ground and at times was 400 yards across. It injured 200 people and killed 57 others. It took Fergus Falls a decade to rebuild.

Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rain to many parts of central Minnesota over June 22-23, 1957. Several counties reported flooded roads as a result of 3-5 inches of rain. Some farm fields in Todd and Wadena counties were badly washed out.

1988 brought the hottest June 22nd in state history with over 20 climate stations reporting afternoon highs of 100°F or greater.

June 22, 1991 brought frost to many parts of northeastern Minnesota. Tower, Isabella, and Brimson all reported morning frosts.

Outlook Near normal temperatures over the weekend, with a chance for widely scattered showers in the west on Saturday and a more widespread chance on Sunday. Continued near normal temperatures next week with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later on Monday and into Tuesday, then drier Wednesday.

Preliminary June Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 29, 2018 By Mark Seeley

With the exception of a few northeastern Minnesota counties, June was warmer than normal, ranging from 2 to 5 degrees F above normal. Extremes ranged from 99°F at Marshall (Lyon County) on June 6th (which may be surpassed today, June 29), to 30°F at Brimson (St Louis County) on June 5th. During this warm June, at least 32 daily high temperature records were broken or tied while 51 daily warm minimum temperature records were broken or tied within the state climate network. In addition, a number of days brought Heat Index values ranging from 95 degrees F to 105 degrees F due to record or near record high dew points. On Friday, June 29 dew points ranged throughout the 70s F and produced Heat Index Values that ranged up to 110 degrees F, making for the hottest of days across southern Minnesota. On a statewide basis June of 2018 will rank among the warmest 10 historically. For the Twin Cities June 2018 will probably rank just outside the warmest 10 historically. Only three days during the month produced below normal temperatures.

Nearly all areas of Minnesota were wetter than normal during June, especially in southern counties, where many climate stations reported from 5 to 10 inches for the month. Some south-central and southwestern counties reported 10 to 13 inches of rain, topped by Lake Wilson (Murray County) with 13.09 inches. For observers in St James, Amboy, and New Ulm it was the wettest June in their historical records. Over 50 daily rainfall records were broken or tied within the state climate network.

Weekly Weather Potpourri During the Northern Hemisphere growing season various satellite images are available online to assess the vegetative health (both crops and native vegetation) for many areas of the world. These can be found online and NOAA provides a descriptive guide for doing so.

The BBC Weather Centre reported that many parts of Greece were plagued by heavy thunderstorms this week that delivered 4-6 inches of rainfall, causing widespread flash flooding and road closures. It was expected to continue raining there throughout most of the coming weekend.

New research from the University of North Carolina using detailed satellite imagery shows that the surface area of rivers and streams across the globe is about 45 percent greater than previously estimated. This information is significant in light of understanding the hydrologic cycle and potential impacts of climate change.

MPR listener question “In today’s world of rampant disinformation and lies, all hope was lost when Mark Seely, of all people, on public radio (Friday morning June 22nd) characterized the summer solstice as the beginning of astronomical summer when he knows full well that it is precisely the center of astronomical summer in the same way that the center of meteorological summer comes in the middle of July."...... Spider John Koerner (blues musician)

Answer Hello John. I hope my commentaries don’t give you the blues. I was correct last week when I referred to June 21, the summer solstice as the beginning of summer for the Northern Hemisphere. Commonly in meteorology and climatology we use the meteorological seasons (Dec-Feb is winter, Mar-May is spring, Jun-Aug is summer, and Sep-Nov is autumn). The astronomical seasons, which have been acknowledged by multiple countries and cultures for a much longer time period, do indeed use the positions of the sun over the equator, the Tropic of Cancer (Northern Hemisphere) and Tropic of Capricorn (Southern Hemisphere) as the markers for the start of each season. Please find below the precise definitions for the astronomical and meteorological season. Astronomical Seasons

The astronomical definition uses the dates of equinoxes and solstices to mark the beginning and end of the seasons: Spring begins on the spring equinox; Summer begins on the summer solstice; Fall (autumn) begins on the fall equinox; and Winter begins on the winter solstice.

The beginning of each season marks the end of the last.

Because the timings of the equinoxes and solstices change each year, it follows that the length of astronomical seasons within a year and between years also vary. Northern Meteorological Seasons

According to the meteorological definition, the seasons begin on the first day of the months that include the equinoxes and solstices: Spring runs from March 1 to May 31; Summer runs from June 1 to August 31; Fall (autumn) runs from September 1 to November 30; and Winter runs from December 1 to February 28 (February 29 in a leap year).

Twin Cities Almanac for June 29th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 29th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 102 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily maximum temperature of 64 degree F in 1959; lowest daily minimum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1924; highest daily minimum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1931; record precipitation of 3.48 inches in 1877. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for June 29th is 58°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 77°F in 2002; and the minimum dew point on this date is 38°F in 2010.

All-time state records for June 29th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 110 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1931; the all-time state low for today's date is 27 degrees F at Pine River (Cass County) in 1925. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 6.37 inches at Worthington (Nobles County) in 1969. No snowfall has been reported on this date.

Past Weather Features The hottest June 29th in state history was in 1931 when over 45 communities reported afternoon high temperatures of 100 degrees F or greater. It was 103°F at Little Fork, just outside of International Falls. The overnight temperature never dropped below 83 degrees F at Canby and Winona.

Over June 28-29, 1997 a band of heavy thunderstorms dropped 4-6 inches of rain across portions of Kandiyohi, McLeod, Sibley, and Meeker Counties. Widespread flash flooding and many road closures occurred in those counties.

June 29, 2000 brought frost to parts of northeastern Minnesota as temperatures fell below 32°F at Embarrass, Tower, and Kelliher. The next day temperatures were back in to the 70s F.

Outlook Hot on Saturday with chances for thunderstorms, especially in the southern counties. Continued chances for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, but with temperatures a bit closer to normal. Then returning to above normal temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

Wet Start to July Continues a Trend Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 06, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Through the first six days of July thunderstorms have brought 1 to 3 inches of rain to many parts of the state. On July 3-4 heavy thunderstorms occurred causing some flash flooding, road closures, and ponded crop fields, as well as cancellation or postpone of some 4th of July events. Southwestern Minnesota was especially hard hit with many observers reporting rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches. A couple of places in Redwood County reported over 7 inches. For many southwestern counties, this recent rain came on top of getting 8 to 12 inches just last month (June). As a consequence, many rivers there are running above flood stage and some roads and bridges remain closed.

On July 3rd Marshall received a new record daily amount of rain with 4.71 inches, while Redwood Falls receive a new record amount of 5.25 inches. Renville also had a record 4.32 inches.

Many areas have also reported strong thunderstorm winds, ranging from 50 to 70 mph. You can read more about these storms at the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA reports this week that a water shut-off policy threatened to occur in Cape Town, South Africa earlier this year due to prolonged drought, has been postponed. Thanks to water conservation practices and above normal precipitation during the March-May period, officials there have delayed the implementation of the water shut-off policy.

Typhoon Maria is being monitored in the Western Pacific Ocean. It has winds of well over 140 mph and is producing sea waves of 30-35 feet or greater as it slowly makes its way toward China, where it may arrive early next week with heavy rain and wind near Shanghai.

The American Geophysical Union EOS newsletter features an article this week about how climate model data sets are becoming more standardized to allow for more intercomparisons and to better understand the forcing and mitigating parameters that govern climate change.

The United Kingdom Met Office reported this week that many parts of England, Scotland, Wales, and Ireland reported a near historical warm and dry month of June. Some areas barely recorded any rainfall at all, with parts of southern England reporting less than a half inch for the month.

MPR listener question Murray County is a mess with so much water. Something I’ve noticed with these storms is that they have been moving north, or even back building like they are moving east to west. Is this a common feature of heavy rain events? What’s the record for 30-day rainfall in the state? We have to be getting close to yearly rainfall totals in some areas in a matter of 3 or 4 weeks.

Answer It is not uncommon for some of the heaviest rains to occur associated with a stalled or slow-moving warm front that is draped across southern Minnesota from west to east. This type of system delivered record rainfalls across southern Minnesota in July and August of 1978, June and July of 1993, August of 2007, and September of 2010. As for setting records, many climate stations in southern Minnesota have reported 23 to 27 inches of precipitation so far this year (a little over halfway through the year), and indeed this is a record-setting pace if it keeps up. Normal amounts for a whole year range from 28 to 34 inches. The maximum one-month rainfall in Minnesota history was 23.86 inches at Hokah (Houston County) in August of 2007.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 6th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 6th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 104 degrees F in 1936; lowest daily maximum temperature of 60 degree F in 1972; lowest daily minimum temperature of 49 degrees F in 1942; highest daily minimum temperature of 77 degrees F in 1988; record precipitation of 2.83 inches in 2015. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for July 6th is 60°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 77°F in 1928; and the minimum dew point on this date is 36°F in 1934.

All-time state records for July 6th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 114 degrees F at Moorhead (Clay County) in 1936; the all-time state low for today's date is 30 degrees F at Cotton (St Louis County) in 1969. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 5.30 inches at Minnesota City (Winona County) in 1978. No snowfall has been reported on this date.

Past Weather Features By far the hottest July 6th in state history was in 1936 with 114 degrees F at Moorhead. The temperature that morning started out at 68 degrees F, so it climbed 46 degrees F

during the day. Over 60 climate stations across the Minnesota landscape reached a temperature of 100 degrees F or greater that day.

Over July 5-6, 1978 slow moving thunderstorms brought 3 to 7 inches of rainfall across portions of southeastern Minnesota. The city of Rochester was especially hard hit with the Zumbro River leaving its banks and flooding many parts of downtown. This flash flood was followed by another the next month in August which also devastated Rochester. As a result, the channel of the Zumbro River through Rochester was re- designed to protect the city from flooding.

July 6, 1997 brought frost to many parts of northern St Louis County, including Tower and Embarrass. Both of these locations in Minnesota have a probability of frost for any day of the year.

Outlook Very nice weekend, starting out with sunny skies and cooler than normal temperatures. Warmer on Sunday, with increasing cloudiness and a chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Then near normal temperatures. Increasing temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday with a chance for showers returning.

Near Historic Heat for the Growing Season Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 13, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Michelle Margraf of the NOAA-NWS Office in Chanhassen put me onto the near historically warm growing season we have been having in Minnesota so far in 2018. Since May 1st, often considered the beginning of the growing season we can look at temperature patterns since that date in 2018. May was nearly 6 degrees F warmer than normal on a statewide basis, while June was nearly 3 degrees F warmer than normal. So, the combination of May-June in 2018 produced the 4th warmest start to the growing season in state history, averaging 4.5 degrees F warmer than normal. Only 1934, 1977, and 1988 were warmer.

Now so far for July the average temperature across the state is nearly 4 degrees F warmer than normal, with extremes of 96 degrees F at Gaylord and 41 degrees F at Brimson. Heat Index values (a measure of warmth which considers both temperature and dew point) have soared up to 105 to 120 degrees F around southern Minnesota already this month. If this pattern of warmth persists throughout the balance of July, then we will record the warmest May-July period in state history. Fortunately, the second half of July looks to be near normal or cooler than normal, so we will fall off this record-setting pace.

Nevertheless both Michelle Margraf and Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld have noted the for the Twin Cities it has been the 3rd warmest growing season so far (May 1 to July 9th) trailing only 1934 and 1988 (see graphic below). BTW this is mostly due to unusually warm minimum temperatures, rather than unusually warm daytime maximum temperatures, a trend we have been observing with climate change. The warm nights have promoted good production of many vegetable crops, beans and squash being two of them. Elsewhere, especially in south-central and southwestern counties, 4 to 9 inches of rain has inundated many agricultural crop fields. As recently as Thursday, July 12th some areas of east central and northeastern Minnesota reported 3-to-5-inch rains.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Speaking of heat, most Minnesota citizens know the common risks associated with NWS Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings, dehydration, heat exhaustion, etc. But in recent years studies from European scientists (via LiveScience) have documented how Heat can trigger other health risks like gastroenteritis (flu-like symptoms) and inflammatory bowel disease (Crohn’s Disease). My wife Cindy Bevier put me onto this from an article on the web.

This week NOAA scientists feature an article about the sharp decline in Great Lakes ice cover over the past four decades. The greatest declines have been in Lake Superior, Huron, St. Clair, and Erie.

A recent Heat Wave and Drought in Ireland has revealed an ancient relic from 5000 years ago, seen as a pattern in the soil and vegetation. The circle or henge pattern revealed in the landscape will be studied by anthropologists and archeologists. This story is featured by the BBC Weather Center.

MPR listener question Thanks to NOAA's ThreadEx Project (threaded extremes using the Army Signal Corps data), the National Weather Service official climate record for the Twin Cities starts in 1871 for daily precipitation, and 1872 for daily high and low temperatures. My question: how many record daily climate values (high and low temperatures, and precipitation) that still stand today were established during that first year of observation (1871 and 1872), over 140 years ago?

Answer Good question. To the best of my knowledge there are still two daily precipitation records from 1871 (0.85 inches on Jan 23 and 1.28 inches on Apr 19); there are four daily low temperature records from 1872 (-13 F on Nov 27, -27 F on Dec 23, -31 F on Dec 24, and -24 F on Dec 27); and there are two cold maximum daily temperature records from 1872 (-1 F on Nov 28 and -10 on Dec 21). In fact, the week leading up to Christmas that year was the coldest in history with a mean daily temperature of -18 degrees F over December 18-24, 1872. So, in total there are still 8 daily climate records in the Twin Cities that have survived from 1871-1872.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 13th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 13th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 105 degrees F in 1936; lowest daily maximum temperature of 65 degrees F in 1975; lowest 86

daily minimum temperature of 50 F in 1926 and 1990; highest daily minimum temperature of 86 F in 1936; and record precipitation of 2.79 inches in 2013.

Average dew point for July 13th is 60 degrees F, with a maximum of 80 degrees F in 1995 and a minimum of 40 degrees F in 1926.

All-time state records for July 13th The state record high temperature for this date is 111 degrees F at Minnesota City (Winona County) in 1995. The state record low temperature for this date is 32 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1940 and at Brimson (St Louis County) in 1990. State record precipitation for this date is 5.02 inches at Indus (Koochiching County) in 1999 (although 5.85 inches fell at Northfield in 2013 at a CoCoRaHS station); and no snowfall has been reported on this date.

Past Weather Features July 13, 1890 brought severe weather to parts of eastern Minnesota. About 4:30 pm an F-3 (winds 158-206 mph) tornado touched down in Anoka County and traveled 10 miles southeast through Ramsey County. It destroyed over 50 cottages on Turtle, Snail, Vadnais, and Gervais Lakes, killing 6 people and injuring 30 others. The same thunderstorm complex destroyed the town of Newport, and downburst winds overturned the excursion boat, Sea Wing, on Lake Pepin, drowning about half of its 200 occupants, the worst boating disaster in state history.

July 13-14, 1919 brought heavy thunderstorms to eastern Minnesota. Maple Plain and Minneapolis reported over 2 inches, while downtown St Paul received over 3 inches. It was the heaviest rain of that summer.

From July 6 to July 14, 1936 eight days were over 100 degrees in the Twin Cities, and the early morning low on the 13th was 86 degrees F, the highest minimum temperature ever measured in the Twin Cities. In fact, seven times that month the overnight low did not drop below 80 degrees F.

July 13-14, 1970 brought heavy thunderstorms to southwestern and south-central Minnesota. Lamberton, Minnesota, Tracy, Mankato, New Ulm, and Marshall reported over 2 inches of rainfall, while Worthington and St James reported nearly 3.50 inches. Windom received 5.69 inches and reported street flooding.

About 3:00 pm on the afternoon of July 13, 1974 an F-2 tornado (winds 113-157 mph) traveled 7 miles across Ottertail County and destroyed several trailers and a machine shed near Fergus Falls. Fortunately, there were no injuries or deaths attributed to this storm.

Over July 12-14, 1990 a brief cold spell visited northeastern Minnesota. Observers at Brimson, Cotton, Duluth, and Isabella reported temperatures in the 30s F. On the 13th Brimson started out at 32 degrees F and warmed up to 80 degrees F by afternoon.

On July 13, 1995 a Heat Wave brought daytime temperatures of 100 degrees or higher to 25 Minnesota communities. With dewpoints in the 70s F the Heat Index soared and ranged from 105 to 115 degrees F that day. This spell of heat was also the cause of many deaths in the city of Chicago, especially in neighborhoods without air conditioning.

Outlook Near normal temperatures over the weekend with a chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier for Monday through Wednesday of next week with temperatures that are slightly cooler than normal. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday and Thursday.

Change in weather pattern brings relief Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 20, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Since last Sunday, many areas of Minnesota have welcomed below normal temperatures this week, bringing relief from what has been an exceptionally hot summer so far. Many of the temperatures around the state ranged from the upper 60s to low 70s F on July 19th, about 4 to 6 degrees F cooler. In northern areas this week overnight temperatures fell into the low to mid 40s F, with a low of 40 degrees F at Brimson (St Louis County).

Except for far western Minnesota (Browns Valley, Marshall, Pipestone) most of the state experienced a relatively dry week as well, bringing some relief from the heavy rains and flash flooding that occurred in many areas during the first half of July.

It is interesting that the pattern change in the weather noted for this week, cooler and drier, is also the expected pattern for the balance of the month across Minnesota according to many of the NOAA outlook models. Most of the daytime maximum temperatures for the rest of the month are expected to be in the 70s and 80s F.

New Seasonal Climate Outlook The new NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks were released on Thursday of this week. For the August-October period they show an equal probability for above or below normal temperature and precipitation. As a result, some of the near record-setting warm and wet growing season will likely be mitigated, and crops may do better than expected.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Speaking of seasonal outlooks NOAA announced earlier this month that it would like public comments on its proposal for improving research and deployment of its sub- seasonal and seasonal forecasting products released by the Climate Prediction Center. There is a detailed description of their current products and a narrative about proposed improvements.

Earlier the month the Yale Climate Connections featured a short video piece on how mild production declines in most dairy cows with increasing temperature. This is a factor that is showing up in some geographical areas where daytime temperatures have risen over the past few decades.

Forecast for the British Open Golf Tournament in Carnoustie, Scotland for this weekend does present two challenging days of weather. For Friday’s rounds there is rain in the forecast, and for Sunday’s round some gusty winds. So, scores may not be so low by the time the winner is given the Claret Jug on Sunday.

MPR listener question Bicyclists tend to notice the wind, especially when it's in your face. My sense is that during this summer, the wind was out of the east an unusual large proportion of the time. Was that the case, or am I just growing old?

Answer Indeed, you point out a characteristic that I have observed as well. Predominant wind directions in the summer across Minnesota are SE, SW, and NW. But this summer we have not seen this pattern as much. In fact, across most of the state during June NE, E, or SE winds prevailed on11 to 16 days, while so far this month most climate stations have reported winds with an easterly component on 8 to 10 days. So, your perception is correct. BTW I too hate biking into headwinds!

MSP Local Records for July 20th MSP weather records for this date include highest daily maximum temperature of 102 degrees F in 1901; lowest daily maximum temperature of 62 degrees F in 1912; lowest daily minimum temperature of 51 F in 1950; highest daily minimum temperature of 80 F in 2011; and record precipitation of 2.75 inches in 1987.

Average dew point for July 20th is 62 degrees F, with a maximum of 80 degrees F in 2002 and a minimum of 42 degrees F in 1947.

All-time state records for July 20th The state record high temperature for this date is 110 degrees F at New London (Kandiyohi County) in 1901. The state record low temperature for this date is 27 degrees F at Kelliher (Beltrami County) in 2009. State record precipitation for this date is 10.75 inches at Beaulieu (Mahnomen County) in 1909; and no snowfall has been reported on this date.

July 20, 1901 was the middle of a 7-day Heat Wave with temperatures in the 90s F all the way into the Iron Range. Over 30 Minnesota communities reported afternoon highs of 100 degrees F or higher. The overnight low at St Cloud never fell below 80 F. The Heat Wave broke on July 26th as temperatures fell into the 70s and 80s F.

One of the heaviest thunderstorms to cross northern Minnesota occurred over July 19- 20, 1909. It brought over 11 inches to Bagley and Beaulieu, and nearly 9 inches to Fosston.

Walker reported nearly 6 inches, while Park Rapids had 4.33 inches. Some farm fields were underwater for days.

July 17-20, 2011, brought a Historic Heat Wave to Minnesota with Heat Index values ranging from 105 F to 130 F. These were driven by high dew points as the Twin Cities recorded a temperature of 96 degrees F on the 20th with a dew point of 76 degrees F, producing a Heat Index of 110 F. Moorhead, MN reported a Heat Index over 130 degrees F. The Heat Wave broke as temperatures fell off into the 80s on July 21st.

Outlook Partly cloudy skies over the weekend with pleasant temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal. Daytime highs will range from the upper 70s F to low 80s F in most places. Continued pleasant on Monday and Tuesday, then a chance for showers on Wednesday, and a return of sunnier weather to end next week.

July Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 03, 2018 By Mark Seeley

After beginning the month very warm, temperatures moderated for much of the second half of the month from below normal to near normal. Still most climate stations reported a warmer than normal July, with average monthly values ranging from 1 to 3 degrees above average. A few places in the state reported slightly below normal mean monthly temperatures. The extremes ranged from 97 degrees F at Theilman (Wabasha County) on the 13th to 37 degrees F at Goodridge (Marshall County) on the 27th.

During the first half of the month three daytime maximum temperature records were set or tied within the climate station network, while 36 warm nighttime low temperature records were set or tied. Numerous Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings were issued by the National Weather Service during the first half of July. In the second half of the month no temperature records were set.

Most climate observers reported above normal rainfall during July. The wettest areas of the state were southwestern and west-central counties. Redwood Falls, Mora, and Marshall all reported over 10 inches of rain during the month. Northwestern counties saw the least rainfall, with some areas reporting less than 1.50 inches for the month.

Within the Minnesota climate station network, at least 50 places reported a daily rainfall record being set or tied during July, the highest being 6.83 inches at Mora on the 12th. Some damaging flash floods occurred in portions of southwestern and central Minnesota.

It appears that after the first week of August, a warmer and drier pattern of weather across the state may prevail.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Earlier this week NOAA released a report about the global climate pattern of 2017 showing that it was the year was the third warmest of the global record back to 1880. Also, sea level continued to rise, and Arctic sea ice loss continues at a rapid pace.

I wrote this poem back in 1997, a year that brought a long, hot summer to Minnesota. Thought I would share it again:

Summertime isn't always so sublime.

Sometimes it's a crime. Wet basements. Damaged pavements. Insurance claimants.

Saturated soil. Cars that boil. Food that spoils. Broken trees. July freeze. Plant disease. Running fans. Watering bans. Sweaty hands. Too much heat. Cannot sleep. Feeling cheap. Soccer rainout. Broken downspout. Many chores to count. Downed wires. Irritable drivers. Patience that tires. Forecasters mistakes. Hard to take. Give 'em a break.

MPR listener question What is the coldest August temperature for the Twin Cities and how cold does it get during the month in northern Minnesota?

Answer The MSP records, dating back to 1872, show that the coldest reading in August was 39 degrees F on August 19, 1967. Low temperatures in the 20s and 30s during August are far more frequent in northern counties. The coldest I could find in the state climate records was 21 degrees F at Tower, MN on August 28, 1986.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 3rd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 3rd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 99 degrees F in 1941; lowest daily maximum temperature of 54 degrees F in 1915; lowest daily minimum temperature of 46 F in 1971; highest daily minimum temperature of 78 F in 1989. Record rainfall for this date is 2.36 inches in 2002.

Average dew point for August 3rd is 60 degrees F, with a maximum of 77 degrees F in 1955 and a minimum of 41 degrees F in 1978.

All-time state records for August 3rd The state record high temperature for this date is 109 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1930. The state record low temperature for this date is 28 degrees F at Wannaska (Roseau County) in 1972; The state record precipitation for this date is 5.03 inches at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1983.

Past Weather Features August 3rd of 1930 is remembered for the three-day heat wave that ended that day around southern Minnesota. Over 15 communities reported record highs of at least 100 degrees F over the first three days of the month. This heat put further stress on water deficit agricultural crops. Most observers were to report less than 1 inch of rainfall during the month, one of the driest Augusts in Minnesota history. This was the first of several heat waves that occurred during the 1930s.

The first week of August brought frost to Old Ft Snelling in 1831, a very rare event indeed, though more common in the 19th Century than the 20th Century in Minnesota.

Outlook Near normal temperatures with a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, and still in eastern sections of the state on Sunday. A bit cooler on Monday, and drier next week. Another chance for showers by Thursday.

August Starts Wet for Some Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 10, 2018 By Mark Seeley

The first five days of the month brought some heavy rains to many parts of the state as many climate stations reported over 1.5 inches. There were strong thunderstorms over portions of central Minnesota over August 3-4 with a weak tornado reported on the ground for 11 miles across portions of Kandiyohi and Meeker Counties (see State Climatology Office Summary).

Some portions of Stearns and Benton Counties reported over 3 inches of rain. Lake Wilson, Moose Lake, Brainerd, and Gull Lake all reported new daily rainfall records on the 4th with amounts ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Lake Wilson (Murray County) with 30.17 inches, Redwood Falls (Redwood County) with 30.26 inches, and St James (Watonwan County) with 31.63 inches since January 1 are reported some of their wettest values in history for the first 8 months of the year, surpassed only by the wet years of 1979 and 1993.

Conversely portions of Roseau and Lake of the Woods Counties remain in moderate drought entering August. Some climate stations in these areas have received less than 8 inches of rainfall since May 1st.

Guidance from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center suggests that the rest of the month may be warm and dry across Minnesota.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA released an interesting article about near record and record warm nights in California during July this summer (following a trend of recent decades) which contributed to the fire danger and the wildfires in the northern part of the state.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Storm Yagi in the far Western Pacific Ocean will bring some heavy rains to portions of South Korea early next week. Fortunately this storm is modest in size and intensity.

Speaking of Tropical Storms, this week NOAA scientists released an updated outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season which called for below normal storm activity during the balance of the 2018 Hurricane Season. So far there have been only four named storms, two of which were hurricanes.

MPR listener question Earlier this week I drove along the St Croix river valley between Wisconsin and Minnesota in very dense fog. It made me wonder if fog is unusual during the month of August. When does fog tend to be most frequent and where is the highest frequency of fog in Minnesota?

Answer Fog in August is somewhat unusual, typically occurring on only one or two days. In fact, fog is least frequent in the summer months and most frequent during November through March. Around the state the average number of days per year with fog ranges from 8-12 days in southern locations to 25-35 days in some northeastern communities. The highest frequency of fog on a yearly basis can be found along the north shore of Lake Superior where fog may occur on 50 or more days per year.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 10th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 10th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 101 degrees F in 1947; lowest daily maximum temperature of 59 degree F in 2004; lowest daily minimum temperature of 46 degrees F in 1904; highest daily minimum temperature of 80 degrees F in 1944; record precipitation of 2.47 inches in 2010. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for August 10th is 58°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 75°F in 1938; and the minimum dew point on this date is 37°F in 1982.

All-time state records for August 10th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 110 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1947; the all-time state low for today's date is 27 degrees F at Duluth (St Louis County) in 1923. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 7.72 inches at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1948. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features During the first twelve days of August 1821 afternoon temperatures reached 90 degrees F or higher on ten days, topping out at 93 F. Overnight lows were warm too as some nights did not cool out of the 70s F. The soldiers at Ft Snelling, relatively new to the Minnesota Territory probably wondered how such a frozen landscape in winter could get so warm in the summer season.

On the morning of August 10, 1967 many vacationing Minnesota citizens in northern counties woke up to frosty temperatures, especially across portions of St Louis County, Koochiching County, and Lake of the Woods County. Some climate stations reported lows in the upper 20s F.

Powerful thunderstorms brought strong winds, hail, and heavy rain to portions of southern and central Minnesota on August 10, 1948. Many areas received 4 to 7 inches of rain causing flash flooding on county roads and state highways. Portions or Rice, Blue Earth, and Sibley Counties received between 7 and 8 inches, daily rainfall records that still stand today.

Outlook Lingering smoky skies in western Minnesota (due to wildfires in Canada) early on Saturday will give way to clear sky conditions later in the day. Sunny, but warm weekend coming up with daytime highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s F. Dry. Increasing cloudiness by Tuesday of next week with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, then we will be visited by cooler weather with below normal temperatures for a few days.

Warm May-July Confirmed Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 17, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Earlier this month NOAA scientists confirmed that for the 48 contiguous states of the USA the 3-month period from May through July was the warmest in history, back to 1895, surpassing the previous record year for the 3-month period set way back in 1934.

Specifically for the same time period (May-July) how did Minnesota rank? On a statewide basis the May-July 2018 period was the 6th warmest back to 1895. The only warmer 3-month periods were in 1934, 1977, 1987, 1988, and 2012. However, within our state boundaries there was some regional disparity. Here are the rankings by region of the state:

NW-4th warmest NC-3rd warmest NE-9th warmest WC-6th warmest C-10th warmest EC-8th warmest SW-7th warmest SC-9th warmest SE-5th warmest

This follows a warming trend which shows that since 2000 the May-July period has warmed by about 1.5 degrees F on a statewide basis. Speaking of warmth, through the first half of August Minnesota reports average temperatures that are 2-3 degrees F warmer than normal, mostly thanks to very warm nights. In addition, rainfall has been well short of normal too, showing up in brown lawns and heavy watering of gardens.

State Fair Begins August 23rd The Great Minnesota Get-Together (our State Fair) begins on August 23 with expectations for dry weather and near normal temperatures. I will be there on Friday, August 24th at 11am with the TPT Almanac program at the MPR Booth (corner of Judson and Nelson); and again, on Monday, September 3 at 10am with Cathy Wurzer at Carousel Park to do the 23rd Annual Minnesota Weather Quiz broadcast. As usual we will have prizes for audience participants. Hope to see you there.

Weekly Weather Potpourri In the Western Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Soulik is gaining strength and heading for southern Japan. It is expected to become a Typhoon over the weekend with winds exceeding 100 mph. It won’t be a threat to Japan until early next week.

According to the Weather Underground Aug. 1-13 was the hottest on record for that period of time in San Diego and the second hottest in Long Beach. The average high temperature for the first 13 days of August 2018 in San Diego is 86.5 degrees, a full 10 degrees above the average high of 76 degrees. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures off the coast of California are at least partially to blame for this. San Diego, often a popular destination for its mild climate has been experiencing a great deal of heat and humidity this summer.

A new study from the Technical University of Munich documents that trees harvested today in Europe for timber are of less density than trees which grew there 150 years ago. This is because the warmer temperatures brought by climate change have provoked more rapid tree growth, but the wood is lighter (not as dense) than it once was.

In the AGU weekly newsletter from EOS there is an interesting article about the increasing damages caused by hail across North America. The trend is significantly upward, and more research is needed on this weather feature.

MPR listener question In your book “Minnesota Weather Almanac” you talk about the state record 24-hr rainfall (15.10 inches) that occurred at Hokah, MN (Houston County) on August 19, 2007. But how widespread was that storm or was it just isolated.

Answer It was far from isolated. The storm delivered over a foot of rain to portions of Houston, Winona, and Olmsted Counties, and over 10 inches to portions of Dodge, Wabasha, and Fillmore Counties. Widespread flooding and erosion occurred, as the town of Rushford (Fillmore County) was almost washed away.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 17th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 81 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 62 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 17th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 100 degrees F in 1947; lowest daily maximum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1997; lowest daily minimum temperature of 42 F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 73 F in 1972; and record precipitation of 1.62 inches in 1905.

Average dew point for August 17th is 59 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 1988 and a minimum of 39 degrees F in 2012.

All-time state records for August 17th The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at Campbell (Wilkin County) in 1988. The state record low temperature for this date is 29 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1981. State record precipitation for this date is 8.12 inches at Redwood Falls (Redwood County) in 2017.

Past Weather Features August 17, 1888 brought widespread frost to many parts of northern Minnesota. Fortunately, most of the small grain crops (wheat and oats) had already reached maturity, but many garden crops (tomatoes, beans) were killed by the frost.

August 17, 1988 was the hottest in state history, with over 30 communities reporting an afternoon high of 100 degrees F or higher. The temperature at Glenwood, MN never dropped lower than 82 degrees F overnight.

Over August 16-17, 2017 multiple waves of thunderstorms brought very heavy rains to western parts of the state. Rainfall totals ranged from 3 to 7 inches across a 10-county area, with some 6-8 inch amounts concentrated along the Minnesota River Valley near Redwood Falls. It was unusual with these heavy rains that very little lightning was reported.

Outlook Warmer than normal temperatures into the weekend, with relatively poor air quality (due to smoke from Canada fires). Increasing cloudiness on Sunday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, bringing significant rains to some parts of the state. Continued chance for rain on Monday, then cooler and drier for next Tuesday through Thursday.

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Climate Signatures in 2018 Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 24, 2018 By Mark Seeley

A certain high degree of variability is evident in the Minnesota climate statistics so far this year. Some examples:

-For the January through August period, both average statewide temperature and precipitation are pretty close to the 30-yr averages.

-But for the May-August period this year ranks as the 2nd warmest historically, trailing only the growing season of 1988. And this is mostly thanks to very warm nights.

-Though the statewide May-August rainfall has been near normal, there is great disparity across the state. The southwestern counties have had the 2nd wettest May- August period in history with an average of nearly 23 inches (2nd only to 1993), while the south-central counties have reported the 8th wettest May-August period with an average of nearly 22 inches. Conversely, northwestern counties, which are in a moderate drought, have reported an average of less than 10 inches for the May-August period, ranking as the 12th driest in history back to 1895.

-On a national scale the year 2018 is tracking as the 11th warmest in history back to 1895, but the growing season (May-Aug) is tracking as the warmest in history, slightly ahead of 1934 and 1936 for the 48 contiguous states.

Fortunately some very significant rainfalls occurred across many parts of the state over Friday, August 24, with several climate stations reporting from 1 to 2 inches. This rain was welcome for many areas which had not seen rain since August 3rd.

State Fair Here The Great Minnesota Get-Together (our State Fair) begins on August 23 with expectations for dry weather and near normal temperatures. I will be there on Friday (today), August 24th at 11am with the TPT Almanac program at the MPR Booth (corner of Judson and Nelson); and again, on Friday, August 31 at 10am with Cathy Wurzer at Carousel Park to do the 23rd Annual Minnesota Weather Quiz broadcast. As usual we will have prizes for audience participants. Hope to see you there.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Hurricane Lane, at one time a category 5 storm was bringing heavy rains, strong winds, and high surf to the Hawaiian Islands this week. Many areas had received over a foot of rain by midday Thursday (August 23), and some areas were expected to receive over 20 inches of rain. It is the strongest storm to hit Hawaii since Iniki in September of 1992.

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Friday’s reports suggestion that some parts of the Big Island had received from 20 to 30 inches with widespread flash flooding and downed powerlines.

NOAA reported earlier this week that while much of the country has seen near normal or less than normal rainfall over the May-July period, some of the mid-Atlantic states like Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have seen enormous amounts of rainfall, in some cases 200 to 300 percent of normal.

For history readers, there is a new paper released by Imperial College in London this week that suggests electrically charged volcanic ash short-circuited Earth's atmosphere in 1815, causing global poor weather and Napoleon's defeat. An interesting review of this work can be found at the Science Daily web site.

MPR listener question I have heard you speak many times over the years and make reference to the weather observer networks in Minnesota. I believe you said there are currently over 400 climate stations that report daily temperature and precipitation to the National Weather Service. But how many were there 100 years ago, or when the state first began weather observations?

Answer I think there are currently over 550 daily climate stations in Minnesota. One hundred years ago there were about 100 such stations, but in the 1890s the first decade of the climate station network operated by the Weather Bureau (what the National Weather Service was called back then), there were only about 70 climate stations. Today there are many other weather observing networks operating in the state along with the National Weather Service. One of those is through the Future Farmers of America, represented at the Minnesota State Fair each year.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 24th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 79 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 61 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 24th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 1948; lowest daily maximum temperature of 56 degrees F in 1915; lowest daily minimum temperature of 43 F in 1887; highest daily minimum temperature of 76 F in 1948; and record precipitation of 4.08 inches in 1893.

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Average dew point for August 24th is 58 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 2011 and a minimum of 27 degrees F in 1934.

All-time state records for August 24th The state record high temperature for this date is 107 degrees F at Pipestone (Pipestone County) and Worthington (Nobles County) in 1936. The state record low temperature for this date is 22 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1977. State record precipitation for this date is 5.96 inches at Windom (Cottonwood County) in 1940.

Past Weather Features By far the hottest August 24th in state history occurred in 1936 when over 30 communities reported an afternoon high temperature of 90 degrees F or higher. Seven western counties reached 100 degrees F or higher that day.

One of the wettest historical periods in August occurred in 1940 when it rained for 8 consecutive days in many parts of the state over the 23rd to the 30th. Over portions of southern Minnesota 3-7 inches of rain fell, flooding both roads and farm fields near the end of the growing season. Some farmers had to wait until late September to get back into their fields.

Outlook Warming trend over the weekend and through Monday, with temperatures a few degrees above average. There will be a chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each evening. Cooler and drier for next Tuesday and Wednesday, then increasing cloudiness and a chance for showers again Thursday.

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Climate Summary for August Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 31, 2018 By Mark Seeley

After a warm first half of the month when many climate stations reported record-setting warm overnight minimum temperatures, the climate moderated and most observers are reporting a mean monthly temperature that ranges from 1 to 2 degrees F warmer than normal. The extremes for the month were 99°F at Preston (Fillmore County) on the 14th, and 34°F at International Falls (Koochiching County) on the 2nd.

For August rainfall, most northern counties reported below normal totals for the month, while many central and southern counties reported above normal rainfall for the month. The heaviest rainfall events came near the beginning of the month, and then again near the end of the month. During the course of the month 28 new daily rainfall records were reported in the state climate observer network. Extreme rainfall totals for the month ranged from over 11 inches at Caledonia (Houston County) to just over 1 inch at Browns Valley (Traverse County).

The other notable weather characteristic of the month of August was that on nine days the Air Quality Index was high, posing a health risk. This was due to persistent westerly and northwesterly flow patterns that brought smoke from Canada wildfires and wildfires in the western USA states as well.

Another Round of Strong Thunderstorms Strong thunderstorms crossed portions of the state on Monday and Tuesday (August 27-28) of this week. There were reports of brief tornado touchdowns in Rice, Dodge, and Goodhue Counties, but far more reports (26 in all) of strong thunderstorm winds ranging from 50-80 mph that broke or toppled trees and took out power in some communities. There were also reports of large hail from Stearns and Becker Counties.

These thunderstorms dropped record-setting rainfall in many parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Some of the new record amounts in Minnesota included:

1.78 inches at Preston 3.06 inches at Mora 3.19 inches at La Crescent 3.86 inches at Harmony 4.95 inches at Hokah 5.53 inches at Mabel

La Crosse, WI reported a record amount of 3.04 inches, with larger amounts of rainfall in surrounding areas. Widespread flash flooding was reported by Tuesday. More

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narrative about the storms can be found at the at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The 22nd Annual MPR Minnesota State Fair Weather Quiz which was broadcast live from the Fair on Friday, August 31, 2018 is available online to take at the MPR web site. Give it a try and test your knowledge about weather and climate.

NOAA has release online a Drought Risk Atlas that is useful to assess the risk of seasonal drought anywhere in the USA. It uses climate data up through the year 2012, a year when broad scale severe drought was widespread across the country, with over 2200 counties involved.

There is an interesting case study about building climate resilience using the city of Fort Collins, CO and the mitigation work that was done to lower the risk of flooding from the Poudre River, and coincidentally develop more green space for the city.

In the Western Pacific Ocean, very strong Typhoon Jebi is heading toward southern Japan where it is expected to bring heavy rainfall starting early next week. Jebi currently has winds up to 160 mph and is generating sea waves of 40 to 50 feet. It will likely be featured on the international news starting next week.

MPR listener question I have read in your book and heard you say that historically June is usually the wettest month of the year for most places in Minnesota. But recently you also said there are some places, where based on climate-averages (normals), August is the wettest month of the year. Where does this happen?

Answer Yes, for a relatively small number of Minnesota climate stations, the wettest month of the year historically is August. These include mostly southeastern locations such as Hokah, Faribault, La Crescent, Jordan, and Grand Meadow. These areas often get their most intense thunderstorms during the month of August.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 31st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 78 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 59 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 31st MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees F in 1907; lowest daily maximum temperature of 56 degree F in 1944; lowest daily

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minimum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1974; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1961; record precipitation of 1.50 inches in 1914. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for August 31st is 57°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 75°F in 1960; and the minimum dew point on this date is 34°F in 1949.

All-time state records for August 31st The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 100 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1898; the all-time state low for today's date is 23 degrees F at Cotton (St Louis County) in 1970. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 5.85 inches at Crookston (Polk County) in 1908. A trace of snow fell on this date in 1949 at Duluth.

Past Weather Features August of 1898 ended with some very high, record-setting temperatures around Minnesota. Over 50 Minnesota cities saw temperatures climb into the 90s F. On some nights the temperature never dropped below 70 degrees F as well.

The morning of August 31, 11970 brought widespread frost to much of northern Minnesota. Frost was reported in Aitkin, Cass, St Louis, Itasca, Roseau, Beltrami, Kittson, and Carlton Counties, with some readings in the 20s F. Obviously the end of the growing season.

Strong thunderstorms delivered heavy rains to eastern parts of Minnesota over August 30-31, 1977. There was widespread flash flooding around the Twin Cities where 4-7 inches of rain fell. The Grandstand show at the State Fair was washed out.

Outlook A dry start to the weekend with plenty of sun on Saturday. Increasing cloudiness with a chance for rain Sunday-Tuesday, as temperatures fluctuate slightly either side of normal. Drier towards the end of next week.

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Wet start to September, followed by cool temperatures Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 07, 2018 By Mark Seeley

With measurable rainfall on four of the first five days of the month, suffice to say September started off wetter than normal for many parts of Minnesota. Most of the heavier rains followed the closing of the Minnesota State Fair, which set record attendance this year of well over 2 million people over the 12-day run.

For the first week of the month Winona (Winona County), Theilman (Wabasha County), and Owatonna (Steele County) all report 5 or more inches of rain so far. Most of the heavier doses of rain (1-3 inches) fell over portions of southern and central Minnesota and came on the 4th and 5th, fueled in part by dew points in the 70s F. Some of the rainfall set new daily records in places such as Rochester with 3.32 inches and Granite Falls with 2.43 inches on the 4th. Other places reported new daily record amounts for the 5th. Too numerous to list all of them, some of those with longer climate histories that set new daily rainfall records on September 5th were:

Zumbrota 4.25” Lake City 4.48” Faribault 4.07” Minnesota City 3.90” Wabasha 3.53” Red Wing 3.19” Albert Lea 2.82” Bricelyn 2.81” Harmony 2.63” Rosemount 2.23”

Caledonia (Houston County) is now up to nearly 46 inches of precipitation for the year so far, while many other southern Minnesota climate stations are on a pace to perhaps set a record as the wettest year.

Following the passage of the cold front on the 5th temperatures cooled down significantly. By Thursday and Friday mornings, September 6-7 portions of St Louis, Lake, Cook, Koochiching, Lake of the Woods, and Itasca Counties reported frosts, and some morning lows in the upper 20s F (28°F at International Falls). Many daytime highs remained in the 60s F as well.

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Weekly Weather Potpourri The NOAA National Hurricane Center has had a busy week tracking a number of tropical weather events. Remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon were bringing rain to southern Illinois and Kentucky, while Tropical Storm Florence, expected to grow into a hurricane, was being watched in the mid-Atlantic Ocean, and Hurricane Olivia was being monitored in the Eastern Pacific Ocean as it heads towards Hawaii, perhaps by the middle of next week.

The United Kingdom Meteorological Office issued a statement this week that the summer of 2018 (June-August) across England, Scotland and Wales was so warm it tied 1976, 2003, and 2006 for the hottest ever summer historically.

A new study in the journal Science suggests large-scale wind and solar farms if deployed in the Sahara region of Africa could increase rainfall and promote more widespread vegetation.

MPR listener question We live in south Minneapolis not far from the airport and have kept a backyard rain gage record for the past 28 years. It seems like we have had less than the usual number of rainy days so far this year (days with measurable rainfall). Is this true?

Answer For the period January through August of 2018 the MSP airport has reported measurable precipitation so far on 73 days. Perhaps that is close to your number since you live so close. The long-term historical average for this period is 80 days, so you are correct in perceiving fewer days with measurable precipitation. Incidentally in 1991, a very wet year, there were already 100 such days.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 7th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 75 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 7th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 1976; lowest daily maximum temperature of 52 degree F in 1911; lowest daily minimum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1956; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 2002; record precipitation of 2.16 inches in 1964. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for September 7th is 54 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 1985 and a minimum of 34 degrees F in 1956.

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All-time state records for September 7th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 104 degrees F at Wadena (Wadena County) in 1931; the all-time state low for today's date is 20 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1986. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 8.70 inches at Tower (St Louis County) in 2007. There has been no record of snowfall on this date.

Past Weather Features By far the warmest September 7th in state history was in 1931 when over 40 climate stations reported afternoon high temperatures of 90 degrees F or greater. Seven communities reached 100 degrees F or greater and even overnight temperatures remained in the 70s F across western Minnesota.

Widespread frosts greeted campers in northern Minnesota on the morning of September 7, 1986 as low temperatures ranged from 26 to 32 degrees F in many places.

A band of heavy thunderstorms crossed northeastern Minnesota over September 6-7, 2007 bringing record setting rainfall. Portions of St Louis and Lake Counties reported 6- 8 inches of rain, flooding many roads and highways there.

Outlook Sunny and pleasant throughout the weekend, with a warming trend starting next week that will produce above normal temperatures by mid-week. There is little chance for rainfall until the middle of next week.

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A look at the climate of 2018 so far for Minnesota Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 14, 2018 By Mark Seeley

On a statewide basis we just concluded the 12 warmest June-August period in state history. In addition, it was the 24th wettest summer back to 1895, but with great disparity, notably surplus rainfall in the south and deficit rainfall in the northwest.

Also on a statewide basis the first 8 months of the year averaged only about 1°F above normal, but it was the 4th year in a row, and 15 out of the last 20 years that the first 8 months of the year have produced an above average statewide temperature. In addition, the first 8 months of 2018 brought a statewide average precipitation about two- thirds of an inch above normal, the 9th consecutive year this has happened.

So, when we talk about Minnesota getting warmer and wetter with each passing decade, it appears that the year 2018 will follow that trend line.

Gusty winds The month of September is not known as one of Minnesota’s windiest months, but the last three days have brought a good deal of wind around the state. Not so much damaging wind, but consistently high wind speeds. Many climate stations have reported wind gusts over 30 mph on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Combined with the warm temperatures such winds are helping to dry-down the corn and soybean crops around the state as they near maturation.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Hurricane Florence was slowly moving over the North Carolina coastline late on Thursday night, bringing wind gusts over 70 mph, and very heavy rainfall rates, up to 3 inches per hour. It is expected to impact the weather in the Carolinas throughout the weekend and may produce some rainfall totals over 30 inches in places. I find it odd that a number of years ago the NC government chose not to factor climate change into any of their planning to protect natural resources and infrastructure from severe weather elements.

Meanwhile in the Western Pacific Ocean Super Typhoon Mangkhut was heading for the Philippines and expected to cross the northern part of that nation over Friday and Saturday. The storm is bringing heavy rains, winds over 160 mph, with gusts over 180 mph, and sea waves near 60 feet. Many evacuations were ordered in preparation.

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MPR listener question I have lived in the Upper Midwest (Wisconsin and Minnesota) much of my life and I have noticed that it seems when there are horrible hurricanes south of us, we have glorious weather. Is this a real correlation or just that the peak hurricane season happens to be the same time of year that we have these lovely days with blue sky and low humidity?

Answer It is mostly coincidence rather than cause and effect. September and October are famous for bringing some of the most comfortable and sunny weather of the year to Minnesota. However, there have been a few historical episodes when strong hurricanes along the SE coast of the USA have caused a buckle in the northern jet stream and Minnesota is visited by very cool and dry Canadian air masses, sometimes bringing early frosts. Such was the case with the famous September 17, 1928 hurricane that struck Florida.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 14th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 73 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 53 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 14th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of 48 degree F in 1903; lowest daily minimum temperature of -3 degrees F in 1923; highest daily minimum temperature of 74 degrees F in 1939; record precipitation of 1.60 inches in 1994. Record snowfall on this

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date is 2.4 inches in 1934.

Average dew point for September 14th is 47°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 73°F in 1994; and the minimum dew point on this date is 25°F in 2011.

All-time state records for September 14th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 103 degrees F at Redwood Falls (Redwood County) in 1939; the all-time state low for today's date is 18 degrees F at Cook (St Louis County) in 1964. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 4.60 inches at Red Wing (Goodhue County) in 1994. Record snowfall is 0.3 inches at International Falls (Koochiching County) in 1964.

Past Weather Features On September 12, 1923 many northern Minnesota locations reported snow, mostly trace amounts. This was one of the earliest dates in history for snowfall. On September 15, 1916 the Twin Cities reported a trace of snow as well, the earliest date in the official records.

September 14, 1923 also brought many record-setting cold temperatures, as over 20 climate stations saw morning lows drop into the 20s F, ending the growing season.

Far and away the hottest September 14th in state history came along in 1939 bringing daytime high temperatures of 90 degrees F or higher to over 50 communities. In parts of Redwood, Chippewa, Lyon, and Nicollet Counties the temperature reached the century mark.

Slow moving thunderstorms drenched the southern Minnesota counties with rainfall over September 14-15, 2004. Many areas reported 6 to 13 inches of rainfall. Flash flood warnings were issued for 13 counties and many roads had to be closed. More details from this event can be found at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Outlook Very warm weekend coming up with daytime highs in the 80s F. Increasing cloudiness on Monday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day and on Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be unsettled with cooler than normal temperatures, then a warm-up again towards the end of next week.

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Another round of heavy rain Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 21, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Last week a slow-moving Hurricane Florence brought 20-30 inches of rainfall to portions of North and South Carolina. So, in this context, our Minnesota rainfall recently is relatively minor. But Wet is Wet. This week, a slow moving, almost stalled warm front boundary along the Iowa-Minnesota border brought consistent and sometimes heavy doses of rainfall to the southern counties of the state. Many climate stations reported from 3 to 6 inches of rainfall over the Monday-Thursday period (September 17-20), with some stations setting new daily rainfall records. Minneapolis Crystal Airport reported over 7.5 inches of rain this week. For the month of September so far, many parts of southern Minnesota have seen 6-9 inches of rainfall. In southeastern Minnesota both Winona and Elgin have reported over 9 inches of rain.

Some of the more recent new daily rainfall records set on Wednesday included: 2.37 inches at Lake Wilson 2.22 inches at Marshall 2.07 inches at Luverne

Thursday brought a great deal of heavy rainfall to the Twin Cities Metro Area, dramatically slowing and disrupting the evening commute. Many parts of the Metro Area saw from 3 to 4 inches of rain, while over 30 Cooperative Weather Observer climate stations reported record-setting rainfall amounts on Thursday as well, including:

3.28 inches at MSP 3.11 inches at the University of Minnesota (St Paul Campus) 2.56 inches at Jordan 2.16 inches at Hastings 2.25 inches at Elk River

Elsewhere on Thursday there were reports of tornadoes from Martin, Waseca, Rice, and Goodhue Counties, as well as many reports of damaging winds, some of which ranged from 50 to 70 mph. As a result of these storms many schools were delayed on Friday, and storm damage was being assessed by National Weather Service personnel.

Many southern Minnesota climate stations have reported over 35 inches of precipitation so far this year and there are still over 3 months left in 2018. Hokah, Lakefield, Caledonia, Mabel, and Harmony have already totaled over 40 inches of precipitation for the year so far. The expected climate trend for the rest of September and early October across Minnesota is expected to be cooler and wetter than normal.

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Weekly Weather Potpourri Storm Ali hit Ireland, Scotland, and Northern England this week with high seas, strong winds, and heavy rainfall. A woman was killed when her caravan was blown off a cliff and into the sea in the Republic of Ireland. The storm disrupted flights and caused widespread power outages. Following Ali, Storm Bronagh swept across parts of Wales and England this week with heavy rain and strong winds, up to 78 mph. Trees were uprooted, and travel disrupted.

In the Western Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Trami formed this week. It is expected to strengthen into a Typhoon over the weekend but will remain out to sea for several days and watched more closely next week.

Using a combination of AI and weather forecasting can help scientists to predict the movements of millions of birds and support their conservation goals, according to new Oxford University research. More information on this study can be found at the Science Daily web site.

MPR listener question How far away can you see lightning discharged at night?

Answer Most of the time lightning discharges can be seen from less than 25 miles away. Under exceptional circumstances when the skies around you are completely clear and there is little moonlight, some lightning discharges have been visible from 100 to 150 miles away according to the American Meteorological Society.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 21st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 70 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 50 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 21st MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees F in 1937; lowest daily maximum temperature of 46 degree F in 1995; lowest daily minimum temperature of 32 degrees F in 1974 (though it was just 30 degrees F on this date in 1866 before the National Weather Service existed); highest daily minimum temperature of 66 degrees F in 1908; record precipitation of 2.07 inches in 1986. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for September 21st is 46°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 69°F in 1970; and the minimum dew point on this date is 22°F in 1974.

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All-time state records for September 21st The state record high temperature for this date is 101 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1937. The state record low temperature for this date is 13 degrees F at Alborn (St Louis County) in 1934. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.95 inches at Lamberton (Redwood County) in 1968. Record snowfall for this date is 0.5 inches at International Falls (Koochiching County) and Walker (Cass County) in 1974 and at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1995.

Past Weather Features This Saturday, September 22 (8:54 pm our time) brings the autumnal equinox as the midday sun passes over the equator on its migration into the southern latitudes for our winter season. Days will begin to grow shorter more rapidly, as much as 20-25 minutes each week.

In addition, Monday, September 24th marks the 119th anniversary of the famous Morristown tornado in Rice County. Shortly after 5:00 pm that date in 1900 an EF-2 tornado (winds 113-157 mph) formed over Rice County and sped eight miles across the landscape at an estimated 60 mph toward Morristown. There were many eyewitnesses to this storm as it was seen from some distance away. Many people sought shelter in Gattske's Saloon, being one of the few brick buildings in town. But the building walls were collapsed by the mighty wind and killed seven people. In addition, a hog farmer north of town lost many of his stock to the storm. This remains the worst tornado in history to hit Rice County.

September 21, of 1937 was the hottest in state history with over 30 communities reporting afternoon temperatures of 90 degrees F or higher. Yet, in the far north, both Roseau and Warroad reported frost that morning.

Outlook Relatively quiet, and dry weather early in the weekend, but much cooler than normal with possible frosts in northern areas. Warmer on Sunday and Monday with a chance of showers later on Monday and again Wednesday of next week. Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year.

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Preliminary Climate Summary for September 2018 Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 28, 2018 By Mark Seeley

September continued a trend of warmer than normal months. Most climate stations reported a mean monthly temperature from 1 to 3 degrees F warmer than normal. Over 60 climate stations reported at least one day with a 90 degrees F temperature or higher, while Marshall topped the state with a reading of 100 degrees F on the 15th. Many northern communities reported overnight lows in the 20s F the first and third weeks of the month. Brimson reported a low of 26 degrees F on the 22nd, but there may be colder readings yet for this coming weekend.

For the third year in a row Minnesota has seen abundant rainfall during the month of September. Furthermore, this time around it appears that September will be the wettest month on the calendar for many climate stations in the state during 2018. This is unusual, but not unprecedented. For south-central and southeastern counties September of 2018 will rank among the wettest five in history. Many climate stations have reported total rainfall for the month that is two or three times normal (6-9 inches), while some communities in southern counties have reported over 10 inches, the wettest September since that of 2010. Overall, with Minnesota’s statewide climate network at least 72 new daily rainfall records were set during the month. In some areas, farmers will have to wait for fields to dry out before beginning harvest of soybeans or corn.

Last Call for "Learning Life Series" Next week on the evening of October 4th at 7pm I will be giving a lecture for the U of M College of Continuing Education “Learning Life Series.” I am calling it “Climate Change in Our Own Backyards: Evidence and Implications.” I believe there may still be some tickets available, not just for my lecture but for other wonderful lectures in the series. Hope to see you there.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA scientists publishing in the journal Science this week noted that their research shows with continued warming in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, category 3 or stronger hurricanes will become more frequent in occurrence.

Also this week NOAA scientists provided an update on the Arctic Sea Ice minimum for 2018. It occurred on September 19th and ranked as the 6th lowest amount observed in the 40-year record. Warm water from the North Pacific enters the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait, and in recent decades this warm water has exerted a strong influence on the decline in Arctic Sea Ice. In the Western Pacific Ocean Typhoon Trami was slowly making its way towards

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southern Japan where it is expected to make landfall late in the weekend. Trami is producing winds up to 110 mph and sea wave heights over 35 feet.

MPR listener question Seeing the cold forecast for the coming weekend, do you think any places in Minnesota will see some snow, and isn’t that unusual for September?

Answer Indeed, portions of Koochiching, Roseau, Lake of the Woods, and Kittson Counties could see some snow flurries mixed with rain showers this weekend. But no accumulations are expected. Historically across the southern half of Minnesota September snowfall is rare, but in some northern areas like International Falls, Roseau, and Kabetogama snow comes in September about 20 percent of the time.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 28th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 47 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 28th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 91 degrees F in 1898; lowest daily maximum temperature of 43 degrees F in 1908; lowest daily minimum temperature of 26 F in 1942; highest daily minimum temperature of 64 F in 1905; and record precipitation of 1.21 inches in 1891; and a trace of snow fell in 1945..

Average dew point for September 28th is 44 degrees F, with a maximum of 70 degrees F in 1971 and a minimum of 24 degrees F in 1942.

All-time state records for September 28th The state record high temperature for this date is 97 degrees F at Argyle (Marshall County) in 1952. The state record low temperature for this date is 15 degrees F at Alborn (St Louis County) in 1942. State record precipitation for this date is 3.65 inches at St Peter (Nicollet County) in 1901; and record snowfall is 2.0 inches at Ada (Norman County) in 1899.

Past Weather Features A spell of very warm weather brought an end to the month of September in 1898. Over a dozen climate stations reported daytime highs in the 90s F on the 28th. The overnight temperature never fell below 65 degrees F at St Cloud.

One of the wettest conclusions to September came in 1901 when five consecutive days

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of rain brought 2-3 inches to many parts of the state. A number of dirt roads were washed out in Nicollet and Sibley Counties.

Following an early snowstorm on the 26th frigid air closed out the month of September in 1942 across Minnesota. Most climate stations saw morning lows in the 20s F, and a number of communities in northern counties reported temperatures in the teens.

Outlook Cold Canadian high pressure will settle over the state this weekend bringing much below normal temperature conditions. Widespread frosts are likely, except perhaps for the Twin Cities inner core. Widespread readings in the 20s F will prevail across the north, but daytime highs will warm into the 40s and 50s F. Some chance for light, scattered showers over the weekend as well. There will be some moderation in temperatures with increased cloudiness for next Monday through Wednesday, and a chance for showers as well.

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Wet, cool, and cloudy start to October Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 05, 2018 By Mark Seeley

The month of October has begun with plenty of moisture, measured in terms of rainfall, cloudiness, humidity, and dew points.

Cloudiness has been persistent across much of the state just as it was in the beginning of October 2005. Most days have had complete or near-complete cloud cover, with relative humidity ranging from 70 to 95 percent.

The majority of climate stations in the state have reported rainfall on at least one day and for some on three days so far in October, with many places already seeing a total of over 1 inch (2 to 2.50 inches is the range of normal total precipitation for the month of October in Minnesota).

A strong cold front passage affected the state on Wednesday, October 3rd. The dew point in the Twin Cities hit a remarkable 70°F on that day, setting a record high for the date, and matching only three other years in Twin Cities’ history when the dew point has it 70 degrees F in October, those years being 1962, 2005, and 2007. As a cold front swept across the state on Wednesday, October 3rd, many climate stations reported wind gusts over 40 mph, and some reported wind gusts over 50 mph, along with drastic temperature drops of 30 to 40 degrees F. In the Twin Cities the temperature dropped roughly 30 degrees F in 4 hours and 43 degrees F overnight. Some temperature falls in western Minnesota were remarkable from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning:

-at Windom (Cottonwood County) the temperature dropped from an afternoon high of 85 degrees F to an overnight low of 34 degrees F, a 51 degrees F drop -at Lakefield (Jackson County) the temperature dropped from 84 degrees F to 29 degrees F, a 55 degrees F loss in temperature -at Pipestone the temperature went from an afternoon high of 84 degrees F to a Thursday morning low of 27 degrees F, a 57 degrees F drop -at Marshall the afternoon high of 89 degrees F was followed by an overnight drop of 60 degrees F to just 29 degrees F by Thursday morning…..whew! That is like stepping from July to December in less than 24-hours. Many other western and northern communities saw lows drop to just 25 to 28 degrees F by Thursday morning.

Weekly Weather Potpourri In NOAA science news this week there is a post by Tom Di Liberto about how the forecasted El Nino episode this winter may boost the number and amplitude of high tide

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days along USA coastal regions for the coming winter season.

In a video released by the Yale Climate Forum they discuss how climate change makes for stronger storms. This video uses many well-known experts, with specific storm examples, and clear explanations.

The United Kingdom Meteorological Office announced this week that it is teaming up with the Surfers Against Sewage to mitigate pollution. Surfers Against Sewage campaigns against environmental pollution, and its current focus is on reducing and removing single-use plastic waste from the ocean environment.

There is an interesting interview posted this week by BBC News where their reporter had a Q&A with Dutch scientist Dr Heleen de Coninck who is one of the coordinating lead authors of the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on 1.5C which will be released next Monday in South Korea. She expresses optimism and hope for reducing greenhouse gas emissions more dramatically in the future.

MPR listener question I am curious about the maximum spread between the high and low temperature for a single day in October. On (October 3) for example MSP reported a high of 79 degrees F and a low of 39 degrees F, on a midnight-to-midnight basis. Is that a record temperature spread for one day in October?

Answer No, according to the Twin Cities climate records, there were at least two days when the temperature difference between the maximum and minimum was greater: October 21, 1895 with a high of 63 degrees F and a low of 22 degrees F (41 F difference) October 19, 1981 with a high of 66 degrees F and a low of 25 degrees F (41 F difference)

Twin Cities Almanac for October 5th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 44 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 5th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 88 degrees F in 2011; lowest daily maximum temperature of 37 degree F in 1952; lowest daily minimum temperature of 25 degrees F in 1952; highest daily minimum temperature of 63 degrees F in 2007; record precipitation of 2.31 inches in 1911. A trace of snow fell on this date in 1991. 120

Average dew point for October 5th is 42°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 67°F in 2007; and the minimum dew point on this date is 14°F in 1952.

All-time state records for October 5th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 98 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1963; the all-time state low for today's date is 11 degrees F at Pine River (Cass County) in 1988. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 6.61 inches at Wild River State Park (Chisago County) in 2005. Record snowfall for the date is 7.0 inches at Camp Norris (Lake of the Woods County) in 2012.

Past Weather Features October 5, 1935 brought record cold temperatures to many western and northern Minnesota communities. Morning lows ranged from 12 to 18 degrees F, as many shallow lakes and ponds showed a coating of ice, and farmstead water pumps froze up.

By far the warmest October 5th in state history came in 1963 when over 35 western and southern communities reported afternoon highs of 90 degrees F or higher. At some locations even the overnight lows remained in the 60s F.

A very early winter storm over October 5-6, 2000 brought the first significant snowfall of the season to many northern Minnesota communities. From 1-3 inches of snow fell across portions of Roseau, Pennington, Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Koochiching Counties in Minnesota.

Outlook Continued cooler than normal temperatures into the weekend with a chance for showers later on Sunday, even some snow flurries in northern areas. Continued cool and cloudy much of next week periodic chances for showers nearly every day.

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October behaving like November Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 12, 2018 By Mark Seeley

So far this month most of Minnesota’s climate observers report a monthly mean temperature that is from 5 to 10 degrees F colder than normal. Widespread frosts occurred on October 5-6 and again over October 11-12. Some climate stations set new low daytime maximum temperature records on those dates. At MSP the maximum temperature of 39 degrees F on October 11th tied for the coldest in history, matching that of 1959. In fact, on the 11th a number of climate stations reported record cold daytime maximum temperatures in the 30s F. Also, many climate stations reported their lowest Wind Chill readings of the fall season so far, with values ranging from the single digits to teens F on October 11th.

Persistent cloudiness and rain have prevailed and brought about an early onset of Seasonal Affective Disorder for some people. Most days have seen rain, or complete cloud cover prevail. Rochester and several other locations have reported at least a trace of rainfall and everyday this month. Already a number of climate stations are reporting over 4 inches of rainfall for the month, including:

4.12 inches at Hokah 4.23 inches at Minnesota City 4.26 inches at Two Harbors 4.71 inches at Lanesboro 4.77 inches at Wolf Ridge ELC 5.05 inches at La Crescent

Another Lake Superior "Freshwater Fury" October 10th brought another powerful Lake Superior storm that produced strong winds, high waves, and a great deal of shoreline erosion, including damages to Canal Park and the Lakewalk in Duluth. East to northeast Gale Force winds (39 mph or higher) prevailed over Lake Superior for an unusually long time 16-20 hours, pushing much of the water towards Minnesota shores, especially near Duluth. Waves heights from 12-18 feet were reported in many places and the Duluth Harbor water level rose by over 10 inches. Repairs to damages from a similar storm last year on October 27th had not yet been completed before the storm this week.

Strong low-pressure systems that produce high winds and large waves on Lake Superior are not uncommon. Former well known meteorologist Bruce Watson used to call them “Freshwater Furies.” When these storms occur on the Minnesota side of Lake Superior, they generally produce coastal erosion and structural damage to some of the lakeshore communities. Such was the case on November 29, 1960 in Grand Marais, on

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November 10, 1998 in Duluth, and on October 26-27, 2010 when a strong storm brought coastal erosion to Grand Portage and produced 27-foot waves on the Canadian side of Lake Superior.

Record snows October 10-11 Many primarily northern Minnesota communities reported new record snowfalls this week over Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread 1-3 inch amounts occurred across the northern half of the state, but some climate stations reported more. Some of the new record amounts included:

3.1 inches at International Falls 3.8 inches at Orr 4.0 inches at Tower, Argyle, and Roseau 4.5 inches at Warroad 4.7 inches at Angus 6.0 inches at Lake Bronson 11.0 inches at Karlstad

Following the snowfall, temperatures fell to just 9 degrees F at Hallock and 16 degrees F at Warroad on Friday morning the 12th where they had snow on the ground. This snow will not stay around long, as temperatures are expected to rebound into the 40s and 50s F next week around the state.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Hurricane Michael was the headliner weatherwise this week, bringing devastating winds, coastal surge, and heavy rainfall to the panhandle of Florida. It then moved onto Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rain and even some tornadoes. It was one of the strongest landfall hurricanes to hit the USA since Camille in 1969.

Across the Atlantic in the United Kingdom this week, the western and southwestern coastal regions of England were experiencing the wrath of Storm Callum. It brought winds over 60 mph, high surf, and heavy rains to many areas, forcing the closure of some coastal roads.

NOAA issued a statement this week that there is nearly a 75 percent chance of an El Nino episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean forming for the winter season. They also stated that most of the models favor a weak to moderate episode.

At the Society of Environmental Journalists’ annual conference last week in Flint, MI there was a forum to discuss possible changes in federal environmental policy should the Democrats win back the House in Congress. It is widely believed that if this happens

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there will be more federal attention on climate change over the next two years.

MPR listener question I am a snow lover and cannot wait for the landscape to be white. Can you tell me what the snowiest October in Minnesota has been and does October snow cover ever last?

Answer The Old Pioneer Era records indicate that heavy October snows in 1820 and 1880 lasted into the month of November, leaving several inches on the ground. Those were exceptional 19th Century years. In the modern era of record keeping the snowiest Octobers on a statewide basis were in 1917 and 1951. In 1917 over 20 communities reported over 7 inches of October snow with a maximum value of nearly 18 inches at Baudette. This lasted to early November, then it melted. At least a dozen observers reported 10 or more inches of snowfall October of 1951. Virginia reported a monthly record 18.9 inches, while Sandy Lake Dam reported a record 16.5 inches. Though a good deal of this melted by the first of November, many observers still had measurable snow cover to start that month. Those are exceptional years. The vast majority of the time October snowfall does not hang around except for a few days.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 12th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 41 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 12th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees F in 1975; lowest daily maximum temperature of 32 degree F in 1909; lowest daily minimum temperature of 23 degrees F in 1917; highest daily minimum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1997; record precipitation of 1.43 inches in 1997. Record snowfall for this date is 2.5 inches in 2009.

Average dew point for October 12th is 39°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 64°F in 1997; and the minimum dew point on this date is 11°F in 2012.

All-time state records for October 12th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 96 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 2015; the all-time state low for today's date is 0 degrees F at Fosston (Polk County) in 1917. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.62 inches at Harmony (Fillmore County) in 1986. Record snowfall for the date is 7.0 inches at Bird Island (Renville County) in 1959.

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The coldest October 12th in history was in 1917 when following a fresh snowfall temperature plummeted into the teens and single digits across the state, setting many record lows. Fosston (Polk County) fell to 0°F the earliest autumn season reading in state history.

On October 12, 1986 thunderstorms brought some heavy rains to south-central and southeastern Minnesota counties. Many observers reported 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain, while Preston and Harmony reported over 2.5 inches. Farmers had to wait a long time before resuming harvest of their corn crop.

By far the warmest October 12th in state history occurred in 2015 when many areas of southern and western Minnesota reported afternoon high temperatures in the 90s F. Both Browns Valley and Breckenridge reached 96 degrees F, the highest temperature reading in the state for so late in the autumn.

Outlook Moderating daytime temperatures on Saturday, ranging in the 40s and 50s F (still cooler than normal), then cooler yet for Sunday and Monday with a chance for rain or snow later on Monday, mostly in the northern areas. A warming trend will start next Tuesday and run through most of next week, as drier weather prevails.

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Wide swings in temperature Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 19, 2018 By Mark Seeley

This time of year, the combination of clear skies, bright sun, and strong air mass advection (from either the north or south) can cause some very dramatic and large swings in temperature. That is what we experienced back on October 3-4 when many parts of the state saw afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s F drop overnight into the 20s and 30s F. The complete reversal of that pattern took place this Thursday, October 18th as morning lows in the 30s F were followed by bright sun, and mild southwest winds which caused temperatures to rise into the 70s F. Here are some temperature changes reported on October 18th:

MSP from a morning low of 33 degrees F to an afternoon high of 71 degrees F Hallock from a morning low of 36 degrees F to an afternoon high of 75 degrees F Baudette from a morning low of 30 degrees F to an afternoon high of 71 degrees F Roseau from a morning low of 30 degrees F to an afternoon high of 72 degrees F Alexandria from a morning low of 30 degrees F to an afternoon high of 74 degrees F Browns Valley from a morning low of 24 degrees F to an afternoon high of 75 degrees F

For many areas of the state October 18th was only the second day this month with above normal temperatures. We have been dominated by cooler than normal weather so far, ranking among the coldest 10 historically for the first half of the month on a statewide basis.

NOAA Winter Season Outlook The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released the latest winter outlook this week. I covered the months of December through February. For Minnesota the outlook favors a warmer than normal winter period. Equal chances are projected for above or below normal precipitation over this period, except in far northeastern Minnesota which is expected to be drier than normal.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The United Kingdom Meteorological Office announced this week that Dr. Penelope Endersby will become its news Chief Executive starting this December. This marks the first time in history that a woman scientist will lead the UK Meteorological Office. Professor Endersby moves over from her position as a lead scientist in the Ministry of Defense.

The second week of October brought strong and persistent thunderstorms to portions of central Texas where they reported 10 to 17 inches of rainfall and widespread flash flooding.

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There were 18 central Texas counties declared as flood disasters, and many people were displaced from their homes.

An article from the BBC News highlighted the unusual autumn blooming of cherry trees in Japan this year. Normally, the annual cherry blossoms occur in the spring in Japan and draws thousands of tourists to witness and photograph its beauty. But this year because of recent typhoons that brought heavy rainfall, followed by warmer than normal temperatures across Japan, the cherry blossoms have appeared for a second time in the autumn.

MPR listener question I know that it has been a colder than normal October so far with widespread frosts around the state, even here in the Twin Cities. Have temperatures up north dropped into the single digits yet? I asked because my father always said that ice cover on area lakes starts to form much more rapidly when overnight lows start dropping into the single digits.

Answer Approximately 20 northern climate stations have reported overnight minimum temperatures this month in the teens F, but only Hallock (Kittson County) has reported a single digit low, with a reading of 8 degrees F on October 12th.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 19th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 19th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 84 degrees F in 2000; lowest daily maximum temperature of31 degrees F in 1930: lowest daily minimum temperature is 15 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1920; record precipitation of 2.75 inches in 1934; and there was a record snowfall of 1.3 inches in 1916.

Average dew point for October 19th is 36 degrees F, with a maximum of 61 degrees F in 1971 and a minimum of 11 degrees F in 1972.

All-time state records for October 19th The state record high temperature for this date is 90 degrees F at Milan (Chippewa County) in 2003. The state record low temperature for this date is 0 degrees F at Orr (St Louis County) in 2005.

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State record precipitation for this date is 2.96 inches at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center near Finland (Lake County) in 2007; and record snowfall is 9 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1905.

Past Weather Features October 18-19, 1916 brought heavy snow to many parts of northern Minnesota, where observers reported 7 to 16 inches. This storm ushered in one of the longest, snowiest winters in state history, that of 1916-1917. Many parts of the state received over 80 inches of snow that winter.

October 19, 1972 brought mid-winter type temperatures to many parts of Minnesota. Over 30 climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the single digits, and even the daytime highs only ranged from the upper 20s to mid-30s F.

October 19, 2003 was the warmest in state history with over 35 communities reporting afternoon high temperatures in the 80s F. Milan reached 90 degrees F. North shore areas along Lake Superior remained in the 50s F all day.

Outlook Cool and breezy on Saturday with a chance for light rain or snow flurries. Sunny and warmer on Sunday and Monday with temperatures that are closer to normal for this time of year. Next week looks to be generally dry.

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Precipitation for 2018: Yet, another wet year for Minnesota Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 26, 2018 By Mark Seeley

As we wrap up October, we already know it has been a wetter than normal month. October is the 5th month of the year so far that has delivered above normal precipitation. For the first ten months of 2018 only the counties of northwestern Minnesota have been marginally drier than normal. The rest of the state has seen a precipitation surplus, and for some southern counties the precipitation surplus has been record setting. Many climate stations in those counties have reported total precipitation through the first ten months that is over 13 inches above normal.

A sample of precipitation for 2018 so far shows: Ada (Norman County) in the Red River Valley is just 20 inches, one of the few drier than normal spots in the state (2 inches less than average); both Caledonia (Houston County) and Harmony (Fillmore County) have reported nearly 53 inches (about 21 inches above normal), already ranking as the wettest year in their respective climate histories; Redwood Falls (Redwood County) has recorded nearly 44 inches of precipitation for the year, topping their list of wettest years, while St James (Watonwan County) has also reported 44 inches so far and that ranks as the 2nd wettest year in their climate history. So far this year over 400 new daily precipitation records have been set within the state’s climate station network. Further six of the last eight years have been wetter than normal in Minnesota based on statewide data, so 2018 is definitely following the current climate trend.

A Big Thank You I want to thank the faculty and students at the College of St Benedict and St John’s University for hosting me to give the Norman Ford Endowed Lecture this week. We had a lively discussion about climate change, climate justice, and the ethics of scientific communications. I was very impressed with the creative minds of the students there and their passion for science.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week the NOAA web site features a nice article that explains the historical correlation of mild winters with the presence of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a factor in play for the coming winter.

Super Typhoon Yutu in the Western Pacific was heading towards the north end of the Philippines this week. It is producing wind gusts over 160 mph and sea wave heights of 35-40 feet. It will undoubtedly bring challenging severe weather to portions of the Philippines by early next week.

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Efforts to combat climate change tend to focus on supply-side changes, such as shifting to renewable or cleaner energy. In a Special Issue in the Energy Efficiency Journal that follows the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C, researchers argue that demand-side approaches can play a crucial role given the aspirational target outlined in the Paris Agreement. You can read more at the Science Daily web site.

AGU-EOS this week features an interview with Florida Congressman Ted Deutch, an advocate for more federal action to address climate change. Depending on the outcome of the November 6th elections, he may become a more prominent leader in addressing climate change, something that is sorely needed.

MPR listener question We listen to Morning Edition here in International Falls (The Nation’s Icebox) and like your chats with Cathy Wurzer every Friday morning. So far this month every day has been colder than average except for 2 measly days. We were wondering over coffee the other day, has there ever been an October here that never saw a single day with above normal temperatures?

Answer What an interesting question! I understand why because International Falls is reporting one of the coldest months of October in history there this month. In examining the climate records back to 1895 I can find only one October that never had a daily mean temperature that was above normal. That October was in 1925, which coincidentally was the coldest October in state history.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 26th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 53 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 36 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 26th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1955; lowest daily maximum temperature of 32 degree F in 1919; lowest daily minimum temperature of 16 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1989; record precipitation of 1.54 inches in 1941. Record snowfall is 1.3 inches in 1959.

Average dew point for October 26 is 34°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 61°F in 2000; and the minimum dew point on this date is 6°F in 1936.

All-time state records for October 26th The state record high temperature for this date is 93 degrees F at Chatfield (Fillmore County) in 1927. The state record low temperature for this date is -16 degrees F at 130

Roseau (Roseau County) in 1936. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.49 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 2010. Record snowfall for this date is 10.5 inches at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1913.

Past Weather Features The coldest October 26th in state history was in 1936 when 12 northern climate stations reported subzero temperature readings. Daytime highs in many communities never rose above the 20s F.

Over October 26-27, 2010 a strong winter storm crossed the state bringing heavy rains to many central and southern Minnesota areas. There were widespread rainfalls of 2-4 inches. In addition, a few climate stations in northeastern counties reported snowfall ranging from 4-7 inches. The strong storm brought winds of 50 to 70 mph, producing waves on Lake Superior up to 27 feet. And a new statewide low-pressure record was established at BigFork (Itasca County) with a reading of 28.21 inches on the barometer.

Outlook Mostly dry on Saturday with near normal temperatures, then cloudy with showers on Saturday night. Very breezy on Sunday with cooler than normal temperatures. Then a chance for showers again later on Monday, perhaps mixing with snow showers in the north by Tuesday. Mostly dry and cooler until Friday when there will be another chance for mixed precipitation.

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October 2018 Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 02, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Cool and wet are the two appropriate descriptions of October of 2018. Cooler than normal temperatures prevailed on 65-70 percent of the days in the month, while a number of climate stations reported precipitation on 20 or more days. On a statewide basis October of 2018 was the 12th coldest in history back to 1895, and it was the 10th wettest in history.

Mean October temperature in 2018 ranged from 3 to 6 degrees F cooler than normal around the state. The highest reading was 89°F at Marshall (Lyon County) on the 3rd, and the coldest reading was 8°F at Hallock (Kittson County) on the 12th. Within the state climate network, the following record daily values were reported: 6 reports of a record daily high maximum temperature 2 reports of a record daily high minimum temperature 10 reports of a record daily low minimum temperature 111 reports of a record daily low maximum temperature

Many climate stations reported monthly total precipitation ranging from 3 to 5 inches, well above normal. Several stations reported over 5 inches. In addition, from 3 to 8 inches of snowfall came from the storms over the 11th to the 14th. Within the state climate network, the following record daily values were reported: 56 reports of a record daily precipitation amount 49 reports of a record daily snowfall amount

The month was also very cloudy and windy with four days bringing strong winds over 40 mph. By the end of the month farmers were still harvesting corn, and soil temperatures had fallen below 40 degrees F so that fall nitrogen could be applied.

Norman Ford Endowment Lecture I was privileged to give the Norman Ford Endowment Lecture at the College of St Benedict and St John’s University on October 24th. The lecture was titled ‘The Ethics of Scientific Communication and the Challenges to Public Education About Climate Change: A Minnesota Perspective.” It was recorded and is available to view online using YouTube.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Last summer in late August citizen scientists took to the streets to collect real-time data about the hottest places in Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Their efforts paid off and new maps of the data are showing that, on one of the hottest days of summer, people in some Baltimore neighborhoods sweltered in temperatures of 103 degrees F, some 16

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degrees higher than the coolest parts of the city at the same time in the afternoon. A similar pattern took place in D.C. a day earlier when temperatures soared to 102 degrees F in several neighborhoods, while other parts of the city were 17 degrees cooler. You can read more about it at NOAA News.

Researchers have shown that low-cost sensors that run on solar energy can be used to monitor air pollution after a disaster. This was done on Puerto Rico after the devastating effects of Hurricane Maria. The Science Daily web site features more details.

There is an interesting discussion this week in AGU’s EOS about research into how life recovered on Earth after historical mass extinction events. In the ocean ecosystem sometimes organisms at the top of the food chain we faster to re-populate.

MPR listener question I am trying to convince my brother-in-law who moved here last year from Georgia that Minnesota has climate extremes that are well beyond what he experienced in the Peach State. Can you tell us what the November temperature extremes are in Minnesota vs Georgia?

Answer Here are the historical November temperature extremes in Georgia: 95°F at Brunswick, GA on November 8, 2001 2°F at Carrollton, GA on November 25, 1050 Here are the historical November temperature extremes for Minnesota: 84°F at Winona, MN on November 1, 1950 -45°F at Pokegama Dam, MN on November 30, 1896

A 93°F temperature range in Georgia and a 129°F temperature range in Minnesota.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 2nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 49 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 2nd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 72 degrees F in 1978; lowest daily maximum temperature of 16 degree F in 1951; lowest daily minimum temperature of 9 degrees F in 1951; highest daily minimum temperature of 57 degrees F in 1938; record precipitation of 0.72 inches in 1901. Record snowfall is 5.3 inches in 1992.

Average dew point for November 2nd is 32°F; the maximum dew point on this date is

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61°F in 1987; and the minimum dew point on this date is -5°F in 1951.

All-time state records for November 2nd The state record high temperature for this date is 80 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1965. The state record low temperature for this date is -11 degrees F at Moose Lake (Carlton County) in 1951. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.76 inches at Maple Plain (Hennepin County) in 1961. Record snowfall for this date is 24.0 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 1991.

Past Weather Features The coldest November 2 in state history came in 1951. Following a big snowfall on October 30th of that year, an Arctic Air Mass brought subzero temperatures by November 2nd to over 35 Minnesota communities. At Detroit Lakes the temperature climbed to a daily high of only 11°F.

A summer-like storm with lightning and thunder brought heavy rains to many parts of Minnesota on November 2, 1961. Many areas of southern Minnesota received 1-2 inches of rain, while places like Gaylord, Winsted, and Young America received well over 2 inches, bringing a complete stoppage to farm field work.

Outlook The weekend will be mostly cloudy and wet with cooler than normal daytime temperatures. Many areas may see mixtures of rain/snow, though southern areas will likely see mostly rain. Much of next week will bring unsettled with cooler temperatures and with chances for rain and snow until Thursday.

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Snow cover season begins Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 09, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Even though more than 100 climate stations reported some snow this autumn before November began, all of that snow melted as the ground was too warm for snow cover to persist. There have been 87 more reports of snow from the state climate network so far this month, ranging from a few tenths of an inch to over 4 inches. In the northwestern counties Detroit Lakes and Fertile have reported over 4 inches, while in the northeast Duluth and Two Harbors have reported over 4 inches. And further up along Lake Superior’s north shore Grand Portage has reported 13.5 inches this week. But now the ground temperatures are cold enough in some areas of the state for the snow cover to stick around. Air temperatures this month have been colder than normal, with many nights dropping into the teens F, and even daytime temperatures remaining in the 30s F. The high temperature on Thursday, November 8th in the Twin Cities was only 28 degrees F, while at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) the high only reached 19°F.

Soil temperatures at the 4-inch depth now range in the mid-30s F around the state, and some soils are freezing up at the 1-inch level. In the higher elevations of Lake and Cook Counties in northeastern Minnesota, snow cover ranges from 2 to 4 inches. The coming weekend may bring some additional snow to areas of the state as well, but after that looks to be a somewhat prolonged dry spell.

The Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference The Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference will be held next week on the University of Minnesota St Paul Campus. This brings together a diverse audience to discuss climate adaptation practices and share knowledge about climate change impacts.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA reported this week that Alaska just recorded its warmest October in history with a statewide average temperature of 34.5°F, fully 9°F above normal. It was also the 6th consecutive warmer than normal October for that state, which has seen 9 of the last 10 Octobers average well above normal in terms of temperature.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide was well off the northeast coast of Madagascar churning with winds over 95 mph and sea wave heights of 24 feet on Thursday this week. It was expected to weaken and remain out to sea, posing no threat to that nation.

Diwali, the most important Hindu festival in north India, celebrates the victory of good over evil. This week in Delhi, India so many fireworks were used during the celebration that the air quality became a serious health risk, with widespread smog, and reports of

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very foul particulate matter in the air. You can read more from the BBC News.

MPR listener question From Lakeville, MN a question: it's been wet this fall when looking at total rainfall, but it seems that in this part of this year, there have been fewer than average rain-free days. Since September 1, how does the number of days on which some rain has fallen this year compare with similar periods in past years?

Answer For September 1 to November 8, a period of 69 days, the Twin Cities climate record back to 1871 shows that the average number of days when a trace or more of precipitation falls is 29. So far this year MSP airport has reported a trace or more of precipitation on 36 days. So, you are quite right to perceive that precipitation has been more frequent this autumn. Incidentally, back in 1941 precipitation occurred on 45 of the 69 days in this interval.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 9th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 9th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 70 degrees F in 1999; lowest daily maximum temperature of 22 degree F in 1945; lowest daily minimum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1945; highest daily minimum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1999; record precipitation of 1.28 inches in 1970. Record snowfall is 4.5 inches in 1983.

Average dew point for November 9th is 26°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 1977; and the minimum dew point on this date is -1°F in 1913.

All-time state records for September November 9th The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at Springfield (Brown County) in both 1999 and 2006. The state record low temperature for this date is -15°F at Milan (Chippewa County) in 1921. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.08 inches at Cloquet (Carlton County) in 1983. Record snowfall for this date is 26.0 inches at St James (Watonwan County) in 1943.

Past Weather Features A massive, slow-moving winter storm brought very heavy snowfall to Minnesota over November 7-9, 1943. Many areas of the state received 12 to 26 inches, with widespread road and school closures.

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By far the warmest November 9th in state history occurred in 1999, when the vast majority of climate stations in the state reported daytime highs in the 70s F. Several southern and southwestern communities reported temperatures of 80°F or higher. Being a Tuesday, some employees skipped out of work at lunch time to play a round of golf.

Outlook Colder than normal temperatures throughout the weekend and much of next week. Increasing cloudiness later on Saturday with a chance for snow showers until late morning on Sunday. Then generally dry, sunny, but cool for most of next week, with some moderation in temperatures by Thursday or Friday.

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Widespread subzero temperatures this week Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 16, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Last week on MPR's Morning Edition we talked about the widespread snow cover around the state and up until that time only about a dozen climate stations had reported a subzero minimum temperature so far this autumn. Since then, we have seen severe cold weather dominate the landscape, and subzero temperatures have become far more common. In fact, over November 13-14 this week over 40 climate stations reported morning low temperatures that were subzero with readings of -10°F to -15° in portions of St Louis and Lake of the Woods Counties. In fact, on November 13th (Tue) many Minnesota climate stations saw the daytime high temperature remain in the teens F.

The week of November 7-13 brought temperatures that ranged from 11 to 15 degrees F colder than normal. In fact, for the Twin Cities, it was the coldest such week in history (1872-present). Here is a ranking of the five coldest weeks of November 7-13 for the Twin Cities climate:

2018 mean temperature 21.2°F 1896 mean temperature 22.4°F 1947 mean temperature 23.6°F 1921 mean temperature 23.9°F 1995 mean temperature 25.1°F

The week was so cold that soils began to freeze up and ice began to form on shallow lakes around the state. No wonder the sunny days with daytime highs in the 40s and 50s F (as high as 55°F at Browns Valley) over Wednesday and Thursday (Nov 14-15) felt so fantastic this week!

A Successful MCAP Conference The statewide Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Conference was held on November 14th this week at the University of Minnesota St Paul Campus. The program was highly successful in showcasing a variety of climate adaptation practices that have proven successful in terms of stormwater management, energy use, fisheries and forestry management among many other topics. Over 225 people participated from all over the state.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA News features this week an interesting article by Tom Di Liberto about the climate conditions that led up to the horrible autumn wildfire season in California. Some

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of these conditions have ties to climate change. The new seasonal outlook for the USA released by NOAA-Climate Prediction Center this week favors mostly a warmer and drier than normal December through February for Minnesota. You can find more information at the CPC web site.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja was bringing high seas, strong winds (70-80 mph) and heavy rains to Southern India on Thursday of this week. At least 13 deaths were already attributed to the storm. Many areas were expected to receive 6-8 inches of rain as the storm passed across that country and back out to sea over November 16th.

A new study published in GeoHealth, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, finds U.S. crime rates are linked to warmer temperatures, and this relationship follows a seasonal pattern. This research suggests crime is related to the way climate alters people’s daily activities.

MPR listener question Despite some snow in the Metro Area earlier this month (1-3 inches), recent temperatures have melted what little snow cover there was. I see that the MSP Airport currently reports no snow cover. How often does the month of November end without any snow cover in the Twin Cities?

Answer For the Twin Cities historically about 40 percent of all Novembers have ended without any snow cover. It is interesting to note that only 5 of the most recent 15 Novembers have ended with snow cover.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 16th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 41 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 26 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 16th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1953; lowest daily maximum temperature of 17 degree F in 1927; lowest daily minimum temperature of -2 degrees F in 1933; highest daily minimum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1918; record precipitation of 1.27 inches in 1996. Record snowfall for this date is 10.0 inches in 1909.

Average dew point for November 16th is 27°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 59°F in 1931; and the minimum dew point on this date is -10°F in 1959.

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All-time state records for November 16th The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 75 degrees F at Marshall (Lyon County) in 1939; the all-time state low for today's date is -27 degrees F at Big Falls (Koochiching County) in 1933. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 4.10 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 1909. Record snowfall for the date is 18.0 inches at Fairmont (Martin County) also in 1909.

Past Weather Features The storm of November 14-16, 1909 brought record setting snowfall amounts to many parts of Minnesota. In addition to the 18 inches of snow at Fairmont many other observers reported snowfalls of 10 to 17 inches, closing many roads. Several business operations chose to close down on Monday and Tuesday the 15th and 16th. The strong low-pressure system brought winds of 40 to 50 mph and a significant drop in temperatures. Many areas had reported air temperatures in the middle to upper 50s F before the onset of the storm, only to see temperatures plummet into the teens and 20s F. A record monthly total of 30 inches of snow was recorded at Fairmont in Martin County.

An extremely rare November tornado struck Maple Plain (Hennepin County) on this date in 1931. It was on the ground for about 5 miles. This tornado struck at night, 9:35 pm, and destroyed most of the buildings on a nearby farm. It remains to this day the latest ever fall date for a tornado in Minnesota.

November 16-17, 2001 brought September-like temperatures to many parts of the state. Over 30 southern and western Minnesota communities saw afternoon temperatures climb into the 70s F. Many golf courses opened up, and workers were seen taking their lunches outside to enjoy the fresh air.

Outlook A winter weather advisory for Friday and Friday night for much of southern Minnesota, where 3-5 inches of snow may fall. Following some snowfall lingering in places on Friday night, the weekend will bring mostly sunny skies, but colder than normal temperatures with daytime highs mostly in the 20s F. A warming trend will start again on Tuesday and bring temperatures back into the 30s and 40s F for Thanksgiving next week. It will also be a mostly dry week.

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Cold November Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 22, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Through the first three weeks of November observers around the state reported an average monthly temperature that ranges from 7 to 9 degrees F cooler than normal. Over 80 climate stations in Minnesota have reported at least one subzero temperature so far this month, topped by -20°F at Cotton (St Louis County) on November 20th. Though much of the state has been spared from a lot of snowfall, the northeastern area has received from 12 to 18 inches, topped by 18.5 inches at Grand Portage.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office posted a Thanksgiving Weather Retrospective of their web site. It provides a look back at all the weather in the Twin Cities history associated with the Thanksgiving Holiday.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Authorities issued a public health alert for Sydney, Australia on Thursday as the 500km- wide (310 miles) dust band began to reach the city. One of the largest dust storms in recent history blanketed many parts of SE Australia and caused air quality alerts to be issued. This climate situation was set up by prolonged drought there.

The BBC News reported that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says there is no sign of reversal in the rising trend of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Carbon dioxide levels reached 405 parts per million (ppm) in 2017, a level not seen in 3- 5 million years. You can read more about the annual greenhouse gas report online from the WMO.

MPR listener question What is the maximum monthly snowfall record in Minnesota for November?

Answer The small community of Bruno in Pine County reported 58.6 inches of snow in November of 1991. I believe that is the statewide record.

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Twin Cities Almanac for November 23rd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 37 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 22 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 23rd MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1905; lowest daily maximum temperature of 7 degree F in 1898; lowest daily minimum temperature of -6 degrees F in 1898; highest daily minimum temperature of 46 degrees F in 2009; record precipitation of 0.89 inches in 1983. Record snowfall is 11.4 inches also in 1983.

Average dew point for November 23rd is 19°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 50°F in 1905; and the minimum dew point on this date is -18°F in 1950.

All-time state records for November 23rd The state record high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 2006. The state record low temperature for this date is -31 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1898. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.57 inches at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 2012. Record snowfall for this date is 18.0 inches at Babbitt (St Louis County) in 1983.

Past Weather Features Probably warmest November 23rd in state history was in 2006. Sunny skies and strong southerly winds ushered in some unseasonably warm air. Over 50 communities reported daytime highs in the 50s F, while in western Minnesota a dozen communities saw the thermometer reach 60 degrees F or higher.

Outlook Cloudy and cool throughout the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal. Increasing clouds on Wednesday and Thursday with a chance for snow.

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November Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 30, 2018 By Mark Seeley Cold and dry are the words for November. It was the coldest November since 2014 with average monthly temperatures around the state ranging from 5 to 7 degrees F below normal. Approximately two-thirds of the days brought cooler than normal temperatures. Extremes for the month ranged from 61°F at Marshall on the 1st to -20°F at Cotton (St Louis County) on the 20th. Within the state climate network over 75 low minimum temperature records were set or tied during the month, while over 90 low daytime maximum temperature records were set or tied.

Precipitation was less than normal for the month in most places, ranging mostly from 0.50 to 1.50 inches. Some places received over 2 inches, topped by 2.70 inches at La Crescent and 3.11 inches at Grand Portage. Snowfall was variable, with many areas around the state reporting 3 to 6 inches, and higher amounts in the north. In the northeast many climate stations reported 10 to 19 inches for the month. Grand Portage climate station set a new daily snowfall record on November 12th with 12 inches.

Lastly, even for November it was a cloudy month, with only 1 or 2 clear sky days. Nearly 80 percent of all days were cloudy or mostly cloudy.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

A quick assessment of the first 11 months of 2018 in Minnesota shows that mean temperatures around the state are slightly warmer than normal (significantly cooler thought than the last three years). Seventeen of the last 20 years have been warmer than normal. Also, the first 11 months of 2018 rank among the wettest 15 in state history. Fourteen of the past 20 years have been wetter than normal in Minnesota.

AGU-EOS this week feature an article about the costs and risks associated with climate change in the USA. It is a part of the Fourth National Climate Assessment and describes some significant risks associated with specific geographic regions of the country.

The University of Notre Dame offers an Urban Climate Assessment Tool for city councils and city sustainability officers to use in planning for climate resilience. For some cities within our region this tool would be worth checking out.

United Kingdom Environment Secretary Michael Gove announced earlier this week the results of a comprehensive look ahead at climate change signals and consequences expected over the rest of this century. Warmer summers and more extreme events are expected, along with significant sea levels rises. You can read more at the Met

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Office web site.

MPR listener question:

I heard some people say that the reason California has had such persistent drought and higher fire danger is because nighttime temperatures have increased so much that fog and dew do not occur with the same frequency they once did. Is this true?

Answer:

Indeed, climate data from California recently shows that nighttime temperatures have been increasing and not allowing as much fog and dew to form. This denies the landscape vegetation of something that was historically known as “occult precipitation” which is the condensation that forms on vegetation as a result of the nighttime air temperature dropping to the dew point. It may have been a contributing factor to the higher fire risk this autumn.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 30th

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 18 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 30th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 62 degrees F in 1922; lowest daily maximum temperature of 2 degree F in 1896; lowest daily minimum temperature of -17 degrees F in 1964; highest daily minimum temperature of 42 degrees F in 1962; record precipitation of 0.84 inches in 1934. Record snowfall is 8.0 inches in 1934.

Average dew point for November 30th is 17°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 48°F in 1922; and the minimum dew point on this date is -21°F in 1964.

All-time state records for November 30th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1922. The state record low temperature for this date is -45 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1896. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.80 inches at Moose Lake (Carleton County) in 2010. Record snowfall for

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this date is 18.0 inches at Willmar (Kandiyohi County) in 1985.

Past Weather Features November 30, 1896 was the coldest in state history by far. With several inches of snow covering the ground and Arctic Air Mass passed over the state bringing extreme low temperatures. Over 15 communities saw low temperatures plummet to -20°F or colder. The high temperature at Roseau was -19°F, after a morning low of -36°F.

Over November 28 to December 1, 1985 back-to-back winter storms brought very heavy snowfalls to Minnesota. Many new daily record snows were measured, and total snowfalls over the four days topped 18 inches in many parts of the state. Willmar totaled over 25 inches.

Ten years ago an unusual warm spell of weather from November 27 to December 3, 1998 allowed for many Minnesota golf courses to open for a late autumn round of golf. Temperatures were in the 50s and 60s F each day with several hours of sunshine and no snow on the ground.

Outlook A strong winter storm will affect the southern half of Minnesota over the weekend, especially late Saturday through early Sunday. Mixed precipitation will fall in some areas, while southern counties get heavy snow, as much as 6-8 inches. Freezing rain earlier on Saturday may be a possibility on some areas, before the storm system turns to all snow. Strong winds will also make driving difficult. Relatively quiet weather will prevail from Monday through Thursday of next week with colder than normal temperatures. A chance of snow returns by later on Thursday.

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Significant Snowfall on December 1-2 Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 07, 2018 By Mark Seeley

Many climate observers in southern Minnesota have reported at least a trace of snowfall on each of the first six days of the month (MSP, Rochester, and St Cloud included). The most significant snowfalls came over December 1-2, especially in the southern half of the state where many observers reported 6 to 11 inches. Several climate stations reported new daily snowfall records for December 2nd including: Lakefield 11.0” Windom 8.3” Winnebago, Tracy, and Owatonna 8.0” Caledonia 7.0” Spring Valley 6.5” Minneota, Austin, and Grand Meadow 6.0” Hokah 5.0”

Much of the snow remains on the ground as temperature have generally stayed below the freezing mark around the state all week. Over 25 climate stations reported subzero overnight temperatures this week, led by -15°F at Warren (Marshall County). Also noteworthy is the fact that the weekly snow depth map from the Minnesota State Climatology Office shows an unusual pattern for Minnesota with both the northern and southern counties showing snow depths of 4-6 inches, while the middle part of the state shows less than 2 inches or no snow cover at all.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Global warming refers only to the Earth’s rising surface temperature, while climate change includes warming and the “side effects” of warming—like melting glaciers, heavier rainstorms, or more frequent drought. Said another way, global warming is one symptom of the much larger problem of human-caused climate change. NOAA features an interesting article about this explanation on their web site this week.

September through November 2018 was quite gloomy across Minnesota. In fact, looking at solar radiation records at the U of M St. Paul Campus Climate Observatory it was the least sunny meteorological autumn since 1983 and the 4th gloomiest autumn on record. You can read more about the autumn weather summary from the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

A recent study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO documents how recent patterns of sea level rise are clearly related to climate change. There is a discernible variability in the pattern of sea level rise due to other factors in the Earth climate system, but climate change is definitely one of the drivers of this behavior.

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A new NASA-funded project called Community Snow Observations (CSO) hopes to facilitate a blending of the activities of both scientists and recreationalists to broaden and improve our understanding of snow. The CSO program specifically identifies the winter backcountry recreation community—skiers, snowboarders, snowshoers, snowmobilers, and avalanche professionals—as ideal candidates to contribute measurements and observations of snow since those individuals often travel (1) over long distances, (2) up to very high elevations, and (3) far away from roads and other infrastructure such as ski lifts and gondolas. All of these characteristics describe the exact areas that tend to be poorly represented by fixed observations.

MPR listener question For this year 2018 the last measurable snowfall in the Twin Cities in the Spring was April 16 (0.1”) and the first measurable snowfall in the Autumn was October 14th (0.3”) a period of almost exactly six months. How often is the period between last Spring and first Autumn snowfall only six months or less?

Answer Looking at the Twin Cities snowfall records back to 1884 (a period of 135 years), the last Spring and first Autumn measurable snowfalls have been separated by six months in 48 years, about 36 percent of the time. Remarkably in 1885, 1888, 1925, 1929, 1954, 1961, 1967, and 1976 the last Spring snowfall and first autumn snowfall were only separated by 5 months! Most of those years had snowfall in May.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 7th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 15 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 7th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 54 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of -1 degree F in 1882; lowest daily minimum temperature of -20 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 41 degrees F in 1894; record precipitation of 0.56 inches in 1883. Record snowfall is 6.3 inches in 1927.

Average dew point for December 7th is 14°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1951; and the minimum dew point on this date is -29°F in 1972.

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All-time state records for December 7th The state record high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 1913. The state record low temperature for this date is -42 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1936. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.31 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1927. Record snowfall for this date is 12.0 inches at Chaska (Carver County) in 1927.

Past Weather Features December 6-7, 1927 brought a major winter storm to the state with heavy snow and strong winds, especially in the southern half of the state. Many climate stations reported 6-12 inches of snowfall, with a report of nearly 20 inches at Maple Plain in Hennepin County. This storm set up a very White Christmas season for many parts of the state.

Arctic High Pressure brought bitter cold to the state on December 7, 1936. With ample snow cover morning temperatures plummeted, ranging from -10 degrees F in southern counties to -40 degrees F in some northern communities. The daytime high temperature never rose above -10°F at Detroit Lakes that day.

One of the mildest early December periods in history occurred in 1939 across the state. On December 7th of that year over 50 Minnesota communities reported daytime temperatures in the 50s F with very little snow cover. Many western counties saw temperatures climb into the 60s F.

Outlook Generally colder than normal temperatures Saturday through Tuesday, but under mostly sunny skies. Increasing clouds on Wednesday with warmer temperatures prevailing. Chance of snow again by next Thursday and Friday.

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Revisiting the AQI Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 14, 2018 By Mark Seeley

With persistent Air Quality Alerts this week, I wanted to revisit this topic which we talked about last August when we had persistent air quality alerts due to smoke from Western USA and Canada wildfires. In fact, we had 11 Air Quality Alerts last summer, a larger than normal number.

This week the Air Quality Alerts have been provoked due to high particulate matter trapped in the lower atmosphere by persistent inversions (warmer temperatures with height). The Air Quality Index (AQI) is calculated by the EPA as a mandate from the Clean Air Act (first passed by Congress in 1963 and amended several times since). The EPA meteorologists’ partner with the NOAA National Weather Service in issuing Air Quality Alerts. The EPA regularly monitors for five pollutants: ground-level ozone (O3); particulate matter (microscopic); carbon monoxide (CO); sulfur dioxide (SO2); and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). For each of these pollutants there are air quality standards (thresholds) used to protect public health.

The AQI uses six color-coded levels: the first two (green-good, and yellow-moderate) are not worrisome; orange is unhealthy for sensitive groups, senior citizens, children, and those with heart and lung diseases; the remaining levels, red-purple-maroon designate progressively more serious levels for pollutants for all people. We rarely seen purple or maroon levels in Minnesota, but these have become more of a concern in some Asian Cities like Beijing, China, where daily AQI measurements have sometimes exceeded even the purple category. Air Quality Alerts in Minnesota are almost always associated with stagnant high-pressure systems. More information can be found from theEPA-AirNow web site or the MPCA web site.

Remarks on Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) I am aware that a number of people suffer from this, and it is especially so in recent months.

Many people have remarked about the absence of sun in the past several months and the Minnesota State Climatology Office has produced a summary on the gloominess of the autumn weather.

Although I think that the absence of sunny skies, greatly compounded by daytime cloudiness, has provoked SAD, there are other weather conditions that have compounded the dreariness.

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If we look at the number of days with fog, mist, dust, smoke, or haze there has been an unusual high frequency. Listed below are the number of days by month in the Twin Cities observations where fog, mist, dust, smoke, or haze were noted: October 18 days November 17 days December (1-12) 11 days

This is by far the highest frequency in many years, and certainly a factor in holding daytime high temperatures down. This week we also experienced some driving difficulties due to ice-fog as well.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA scientists released another report card on the Arctic Region. This is the 13th year in a row for such a report. Temperatures continue to rise sharply there, both in the air and the ocean. In fact, a higher frequency of red tide is observed along with a continued decline in reindeer and caribou populations.

Cyclone Owen was bringing high seas and strong winds to portions of northern Australia this week, mostly southeast of Dawin. It was expected to bring heavy rains to northern Queensland (Carins) this weekend, perhaps 10-15 inch amounts in places.

In recent years the World Meteorological Organization has promoted the value of long term climate histories by designating Global Centennial Observing Stations, basically climate stations which have kept a daily record of measurements for 100 years or longer. Though the WMO has yet to recognize the such stations in Minnesota we have several locations that have measurement histories of 100 years or more, including Morris, Crookston, and Milan among many others.

The BBC Weather Centre had an interesting story (with video) about sea form (called spume) which was whipped up by the wind and blown into the town of Dawlish (in Devonshire) this week. The sea form results from high winds churning sea waters that are full of algae which creates huge amounts of foam.

MPR listener question What is the record for number of continuous days with snow cover in the Twin Cities? Also, if you have it, what is the same record on a statewide basis?

Answer For the Twin Cities, the record is 146 days, from November 7, 1921 to April 1, 1922. The most recent such longevity of Twin Cities snow cover was November 16, 2000 to April 4, 2001, a period of 141 days.

The longest continuous snow cover season I can find in the state climate database is 150

197 days at Gunflint Lake (Cook County) from November 8, 1965 to May 23, 1966. That’s 6 ½ months of snow cover!

Twin Cities Almanac for December 14th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 12 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 14th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1998; lowest daily maximum temperature of -14 degree F in 1901; lowest daily minimum temperature of -27 degrees F in 1901; highest daily minimum temperature of 43 degrees F in 2014; record precipitation of 1.50 inches in 1891. Record snowfall is 5.2 inches in 1996.

Average dew point for December 14th is 10°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1928; and the minimum dew point on this date is -22°F in 1985.

All-time state records for December 14th The state record high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F at Preston (Fillmore County) in 1912. The state record low temperature for this date is -48 degrees F at Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1901. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.38 inches at Red Wing (Goodhue County) in 1891. Record snowfall for this date is 20.8 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 2005.

Past Weather Features Following a December 11-12 snowstorm, Arctic High Pressure gripped the state on December 14, 1901, the coldest in Minnesota history. Over 30 Minnesota communities reported a morning low of -30 degrees F or colder. Wind Chill readings were not common then, but clearly based on measurements many areas saw Wind Chill values of -50 F or colder.

On December 14, 1998 a number of golf courses were open for business as the absence of snow combined with afternoon temperatures in the 50s F under sunny skies prompting many to take a Monday afternoon off. Over 50 Minnesota cities reported highs of 50°F or greater.

A double-barreled storm brought a significant blanket of snow across much of the eastern half of Minnesota over December 13-14, 2005. It was an unusual event with two areas of low pressure, one over Nebraska and another along the North Dakota/Canadian Border. Both areas drifted to the east during the day on Wednesday, December 14. This set the stage for at least a half foot of snow to fall across much of

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eastern Minnesota. Some northeastern locations received 10-20 inches of snow.

Outlook A respite from the dreariness comes this weekend with plenty of sunshine and warmer than normal temperatures around the state. Temperatures will generally range from 5- 10 degrees above normal. The sun and warmth will last until at least Thursday of next week.

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2018 Climate Summary-New Statewide Precipitation Record Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 21, 2018 By Mark Seeley As we near the end of the calendar year, a climate summary for the state statistically shows that both temperature (average annual) and precipitation (total annual) will rank among the 20 highest in state history back to 1895. The distribution of temperature patterns in the state was mixed with about half of the months warmer than normal and half colder than normal. Extremes of temperature for the year were 102°F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) and Amboy (Blue Earth County) on May 27th and -46°F at Embarrass (St Louis County) on January 14th.

The distribution of precipitation was mixed during the year with about half of the months drier than normal and half wetter than normal. At least 20 communities reported a one- day rainfall event of 5 inches or more. The wettest areas of the state in 2018 were the southern counties, where many climate stations reported the wettest year in their historical record. The driest area of the state encompassed the northwestern counties where some climate stations reported less than 20 inches for the year. There are at least five southeastern Minnesota climate stations that reported over 50 inches of precipitation this year, topped by 56.61 inches at Caledonia (Houston County) which is a new all-time statewide record, formerly held by Waseca, MN with 56.24 inches reported in 2016. These numbers may change before the end of December as well. The largest one-day rainfall at Caledonia was 8.10 inches on August 28th. The year 2018 may be remembered as an unusual year for many reasons, but one of them for sure is that April was the snowiest month, a very rare occasion indeed.

I will have more pertaining to the year-end summary next week.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Earlier this week on December 18th, an extremely rare EF-2 (winds 120-130 mph) tornado struck near Port Orchard, WA and damaged many trees and buildings. It was later confirmed by the National Weather Service Office in Seattle, WA. The state of Washington averages only about 3 tornadoes per year, and the last one to be reported in the month of December was in 1969.

AGU-EOS published an interesting article this week about the value of snow to the US economy. For many areas of the country the decline in seasonal snowfall due to climate change has had a significant negative impact on the local economy.

A powerful Tropical Cyclone (Cilida) developed in the Southern Indian Ocean this week. It was producing winds well over 140 mph and sea wave heights over 35 feet. Cilida is expected to grow even stronger over the weekend but will remain largely out to sea

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between Madagascar and Diego Garcia.

Weather and Art: Some years ago, Hans Neuberger, formerly of the Department of Meteorology at Pennsylvania State University published an interesting article about weather depicted throughout the history of art (specifically paintings). Some of his findings included: • artists prefer to paint mid-level stratoform or convective cloud forms over the high, wispy cirrus clouds. Vertical cloud forms perhaps provide a more captivating backdrop. • Most British paintings are dominated by cloudy skies, while those from Italy, Germany, Spain, and the Western States of the USA depict far more frequent clear sky conditions, a common difference between their respective climates. • Those who painted during the Little Ice Age (1350-1850) appear to have more commonly depicted scenes of cloudiness and harsh winters, fewer blue skies, and more often flooded or frozen landscapes. • More modern paintings contain frequent blue skies and scenes with unlimited or very good visibility, though more recently urban settings reflect a degree of air pollution.

MPR listener question In your book (Minnesota Weather Almanac) you talk about the Christmas of 1877 and how mild it was in the Twin Cities area, referring to it as the “Muddy Christmas” or the “Christmas of Fresh Flowers.” What were the conditions like back then in terms of real temperature?

Answer It was not only a “brown, muddy Christmas Day” but the entire month was brown and muddy, with 1.42 inches of precipitation falling. Sixteen days brought temperatures above 40 degrees F, and for three consecutive days up to Christmas Eve temperatures were in the 50s F. In some cases, families enjoyed fresh flowers cut from the garden for Christmas decoration. This climate pattern in Minnesota was associated with the strongest El Nino episode of the 19th Century according to NOAA researchers.

More on the history of weather at Christmas time can be found at the DNR-State Climatology Office web site.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 21st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 11 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 21st 154

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 56 degrees F in 1877; lowest daily maximum temperature of -10 degree F in 1872; lowest daily minimum temperature of -24 degrees F in 1916; highest daily minimum temperature of 38 degrees F in 1877; record precipitation of 0.71 inches in 2006. Record snowfall is 5.3 inches in 1920.

Average dew point for December 21st is 10°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 47°F in 1967; and the minimum dew point on this date is -33°F in 1989.

All-time state records for December 21st The state record high temperature for this date is 64 degrees F at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1908. The state record low temperature for this date is -44 degrees F at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1916. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.45 inches at Bricelyn (Faribault County) in 1948. Record snowfall for this date is 12.2 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 2010.

Past Weather Features On a statewide basis the coldest December 21st came in 1916 when over 40 climate stations reported a morning low temperature of -30°F or colder. Even the daytime temperature at Montevideo never rose higher than -15°F. This Arctic Blast came after a snowstorm earlier in the week.

December 20-21, 1920 brought a strong winter storm to Minnesota that delivered rain, ice, and snow. Many communities in the southern half of the state recorded 6 to 12 inches of snow setting up a White Christmas.

December 21, 1983 was dominated by extreme cold and very dangerous Wind Chill readings ranging from -30 to -50 degrees F. AAA was kept very busy starting cars and rescuing motorists from the cold.

Outlook It will be mostly cloudy on Saturday with a chance of light snow, especially in northern areas. Then it will be partly cloudy Sunday and Monday, and mostly cloudy on Tuesday (Christmas Day) with a chance for light snow. Temperatures will be near normal. Then there is a chance for significant snow on Wednesday and Thursday next week with daytime temperatures a few degrees above normal. But the precise storm track is very uncertain at this time.

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Preliminary December Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 28, 2018 By Mark Seeley

December was a warmer than normal month with average monthly temperatures around the state running 6 to 9 degrees F above normal. In fact, on a statewide basis this December will rank among the ten warmest historically dating back to 1895. Over 70 percent of all days brought warmer than normal temperatures. Extremes for the month ranged from 51 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) on the 16th to -17 degrees F at Seagull Lake (Cook County) on the 6th.

Thanks to the big winter storm over December 26-28 this week, most Minnesota climate stations reported above normal precipitation for the month. Storm total precipitation ranged from 0.5 inches to 1.50 inches in many places with some storm total snowfall amounts ranging from 8 to 24 inches. In fact, some climate stations reported new daily precipitation and snowfall records from this storm. Some of these records included:

December 27th record daily precipitation reports (total of rain and melted snow): Grand Marais 1.40 inches Duluth 1.19 inches Grand Meadow 1.10 inches Two Harbors 0.99 inches MSP 0.95 inches Albert Lea 0.90 inches Preston 0.78 inches

December 27th record snowfall reports: Duluth 12.2 inches Brimson 10.6 inches Moose Lake 9.5 inches Milan 7.5 inches International Falls 6.0 inches Collegeville 5.0 inches

December 28th record snowfall reports: Long Prairie 10.2 inches Wright 9.4 inches Brainerd 8.6 inches Kabetogama 8.0 inches

The wettest area of the state for December 2018 was southeastern Minnesota where monthly precipitation totals ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Snowfall was highly variable around the state with most of it coming at the beginning of the month, and then over the 156

past three days. Some areas of the west and north reported between 10-20 inches.

2018 Climate Highlights Among the climate highlights of 2018 it is significant that Minnesota reported yet another warmer and wetter than normal year. It is unclear which location will set a new statewide record for most annual precipitation, but it will either be Harmony (Fillmore County) or Caledonia (Houston County) as both have received over 57 inches so far this year (old statewide record is 56.24 inches at Waseca in 2016).

Many Minnesota citizens will remember 2018 for the long, snowy winter, especially the months of February through April. During those three months alone, blizzards and heavy snowfall plagued the state, closing many roads and schools several times. Portions of Faribault, Lyon, and Yellow Medicine Counties reported over 70 inches of snowfall during February through April, capped off by the blizzard and thunder-snow of April 13-16.

May of 2018 will be remembered for bringing the highest temperatures of the year and setting many new temperature records over the 28th and 29th. At least 17 climate stations reported a maximum temperature of 100 degrees F or greater during the month, topped by 102 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) and Amboy (Blue Earth County).

Because of excessively wet fields farmers had to endure a very late planting season. But the growing season was longer than normal, and crops matured before harvest, producing generally very good yields, although low prices and a tariff war with China caused a good deal of the crop to go into storage.

Favorable weather during the 12-day run of the Minnesota State Fair helped to motivate people to attend the “Great Minnesota Get Together.” A new attendance record was set with 2,046,533 people passing through the gates to enjoy the sights, sounds, and smells of the State Fair.

The autumn season was dismal from the standpoint of weather. Dominated by cloudy and cool conditions with plenty of rain, snow, and fog many citizens said they missed the usual spell of glorious sunny skies and mild temperatures that often comes after first frosts.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia was releasing Heat Advisories for the coming week as many parts of southern Australia will see daytime temperatures ranging from 102 to 112 degrees F over the next week or so. These temperatures are 15 to 25 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

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In this week’s AGU EOS highlights you will find an interesting article about the simulated tsunami impact of the asteroid which killed the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. University of Michigan researchers explained that a tsunami several meters in height would have propagated across the entire planet.

MPR listener question Have a conversation with neighbors about past New Years in the Twin Cities and wondered how often does it snow on the first day of the year? Though you might know.

Answer Indeed, the records back to 1885 in the Twin Cities show that it has snowed exactly half of the time. From 1914 to 1919 and again from 2008 to 2013 it snowed on every New Year’s Day.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 28th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 28th MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 47 degrees F in 2013; lowest daily maximum temperature of -12 degree F in 1917; lowest daily minimum temperature of -27 degrees F in 1880; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 2006; record precipitation of 1.09 inches in 1982. Record snowfall is 12.0 inches also in 1982.

Average dew point for December 28th is 13°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1984; and the minimum dew point on this date is -26°F in 1976

All-time state records for December 28th The state record high temperature for this date is 59 degrees F at Winona (Winona County) in 1984. The state record low temperature for this date is -51 degrees F at Big Falls (Koochiching County) in 1933. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.44 inches at Bricelyn (Faribault County) in 1982. Record snowfall for this date is 17.0 inches at St Francis (Isanti County) also in 1982.

Past Weather Features December 28, 1917 and December 28, 1933 were the two coldest in Minnesota history, each dominated by an Arctic Air Mass with clear skies, low humidity, calm winds, and bitter temperatures. In 1933 the temperature fell to -50°F at Warroad and -51°F at Big Falls, while in 1917 low temperatures ranged throughout the -40s F across northern counties, where Roseau saw a daily high temperature of only -23 degrees F.

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December 27-28, 1982 brought a huge snowstorm to Minnesota with record amounts of snowfall widely reported. Across central portions of the state, including the Twin Cities from 11 to 18 inches of snow fell and closed many roads and highways for a time.

December 28, 1984 brought a very mild day to southeastern Minnesota where daytime temperatures reached into the 50s F at Austin, Caledonia, Rochester, and Preston among other places.

Outlook Coldest temperatures of December will dominate the state on Saturday with many subzero lows and highs only in the single digits and teens. Increasing cloudiness will bring moderation of temperatures Sunday and Monday with a chance for snow. This will be followed by another cold high-pressure system for New Year’s Day dropping temperatures to subzero early in the day, with highs only in the single digits either side of zero. The rest of next week will be dry with moderating temperatures.

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