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Global Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country – World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized GLOBAL PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER POTENTIAL BY COUNTRY JUNE 2020 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 10165-ESMAP PV Potential_CVR-2.indd 3 6/17/20 10:08 AM Global Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country JUNE 2020 10165-ESMAP PV Potential-new.indd 1 6/12/20 12:42 PM ABOUT ESMAP The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is a partnership between the World Bank and 18 partners to help low and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth through sustainable energy solutions. ESMAP’s analytical and advisory services are fully integrated within the World Bank’s country financing and policy dialogue in the energy sector. Through the World Bank Group (WBG), ESMAP works to accelerate the energy transition required to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. It helps to shape WBG strategies and programs to achieve the WBG Climate Change Action Plan targets. https://esmap.org ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared and drafted by Marcel Suri, Juraj Betak, Konstantin Rosina, Daniel Chrkavy, Nada Suriova, Tomas Cebecauer, Marek Caltik, and Branislav Erdelyi at Solargis, under contract to the World Bank. The work was commissioned and funded by the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) under its Global Solar Atlas activity as part of a wider initiative on Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Mapping. The draft report was reviewed by Clara Ivanescu and Rachel Fox, copy edited by Richard Heap from Tamarindo Insight, and benefited from peer review inputs from Benjamin Stewart and Nicolas Fichaux. Project oversight and final editing was carried out by Oliver Knight. Design services were provided by Shepherd, Inc., under the supervision of Heather Austin (Production Editor, ESMAP/The World Bank), and printing services were provided by Global Corporate Solutions, Design and Publications (GCSDE). ABOUT SOLARGIS Solargis is a technology company offering energy-related meteorological data, software, and consultancy services to a wide range of stakeholders in solar energy. They have supported the solar industry in site qualification, planning, financing, and the operation of solar energy systems for the past 11 years. They developed and operate a high-resolution global database and applications integrated within the Solargis® information system. Accurate, standardized, and validated data help to reduce the weather-related risks and costs in system planning, performance assessment, forecasting, and management of distributed solar power. https://solargis.com Copyright © 2020 THE WORLD BANK. All rights reserved. 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA Telephone: +1-202-473-1000 Internet: https://worldbank.org RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes if full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1-202- 522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Furthermore, the ESMAP Program Manager would appreciate receiving a copy of the publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care of the address above, or to [email protected]. All images remain the sole property of their source and may not be used for any purpose without written permission from the source. ATTRIBUTION Please cite the work as follows: ESMAP. 2020. Global Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country. Washington, DC: World Bank. DISCLAIMER The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Front and back covers: Practical Photovoltaic Power Potential at Level 1 (Long-Term Average) © Solargis/ World Bank, 2020. 10165-ESMAP PV Potential-new.indd 2 6/12/20 12:42 PM CONTENTS Acronyms . vi Executive Summary . vii Methodology .............................................................................vii Key Findings and Lessons Learned .........................................................viii 1 . Introduction . .1 1.1 Objective ............................................................................... 1 2 . Methodology . 4 2.1 Photovoltaic Potential: Review of Concepts...............................................4 2.2 Input Data ............................................................................6 2.3 Theoretical PV Power Potential.........................................................12 2.4 Practical PV Power Potential...........................................................12 2.5 Economic PV Power Potential ..........................................................17 3 . Results and Discussion . 24 3.1 Theoretical Potential ..................................................................24 3.2 Practical Potential ....................................................................25 3.3 Economic Potential ...................................................................32 3.4 Country Factsheets...................................................................41 4 . References . 45 4.1 Literature ............................................................................45 4.2 Applied Data Sets ....................................................................47 iii 10165-ESMAP PV Potential-new.indd 3 6/12/20 12:42 PM Tables Table 2 1:. Primary Global Data Layers Applied in This Study.......................................7 Table 2 .2: Auxiliary Global Data Layers Applied in This Study......................................8 Table 2 .3: CAPEX for a Utility-Scale PV Power Plant Value for 19 Selected Countries in 2018 ........19 Table 2 .4: Socioeconomic Indicators, Selected for Comparison to PV Power Production .............22 Figures Figure 2 1:. Typology of Potentials for Renewable Energies .........................................6 Figure 2 .2: Solargis Calculation Scheme for Photovoltaic Power Potential ......................... 11 Figure 2 .3: Data Layers Defining Primary Exclusion Zones (Level 1), Using Ethiopia as the Example . 14 Figure 2 .4: Data Layers Defining Secondary Exclusion Zones (Level 2), Using Ethiopia as the Example ...............................................................................14 Figure 2 .5: Mask Showing Combined Primary Exclusion Zones for Practical Potential at Level 1 .....15 Figure 2 6:. Mask Showing Combined Primary and Secondary Exclusion Zones for Practical Potential at Level 2 ...........................................................................15 Figure 2 7:. Three Levels of Practical Potential (Data Masking for Zonal Statistics Calculation) in Ethiopia ...................................................................................16 Figure 2 .8: LCOE for Different PVOUT Calculated for CAPEX Global Weighted Average of $1,210/kWp................................................................................21 Figure 3 1:. Global Horizontal Irradiation: Long-Term Yearly Average of Daily/Yearly Summaries......25 Figure 3 .2: Direct Normal Irradiation: Long-Term Yearly Average of Daily/Yearly Summaries . 25 Figure 3 .3: Air Temperature: Long-Term Yearly Average ..........................................26 Figure 3 .4: Practical Solar PV Power Potential: Long-Term Yearly Average of Daily/Yearly Summaries (Level 0) ..........................................................................26 Figure 3 .5: Practical Solar PV Power Potential: Seasonality Index (Level 0).........................27 Figure 3 6:. Practical Photovoltaic Power Potential at Level 1 (Long-Term Average)..................27 Figure 3 7:. Practical Photovoltaic Power Potential at Level 2 (Long-Term Average)..................28 Figure 3 .8 (part 1 of 3): Ranking of Selected Countries, Based on Zonal Statistics of Practical PV Power Potential ..............................................................................29 Figure 3 .8 (part 2 of 3): Ranking of Selected Countries, Based on Zonal Statistics of Practical PV Power Potential ..............................................................................30 Figure 3 .8 (part 3 of 3): Ranking of Selected Countries, Based on Zonal Statistics of Practical PV Power Potential ..............................................................................31 Figure 3 .9: A Simplified LCOE Estimated for Large-Scale Ground-Mounted PV Power Plants with Expected Lifetime of 25 Years.............................................................33 Figure 3 10:. Country Groups, According to the World Bank, Used in Figures 3.11 to 3.19 .............34 Figure 3 11:. Average Practical PV Power Potential at Level 1 (PVOUT) Compared to Theoretical Potential.....................................................................................34 Figure 3 12:. Absolute Values of Practical PV Power Potential Compared to PV Seasonality Index ....35 Figure 3 13:. Practical PV Power Potential versus Installed Cumulative PV Capacity in 2018 . .36 iv Global Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country 10165-ESMAP PV Potential-new.indd
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