VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF REGIONAL STUDIES
Eglė Petrauskaitė
GENERATIONAL CLEAVAGE IN THE RESULTS OF THE 18TH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF SOUTH KOREA
Master’s degree thesis East Asian Region Studies program, state code 621L20007
Supervisor: Ph.D. Aurelijus Zykas ______(Academic degree, name, surname) (signature) (date) Defended______(Dean of the Faculty) (signature) (date)
Kaunas, 2013
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Contents
Santrauka………………………………………………………………………………….……. I
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………….. 1
1. Descriptive Analysis of Statistical Data……………………………………………….. 6 1.1.Historic Overview…………………………………………………………...... 6 1.2.Analysis of Statistical Data in Korean Media………………………………………. 8 1.2.1 Voters’ Turnout……………………………………………………………….. 8 1.2.2 Regional tendencies…………………………………………………………... 9 1.2.3 Generational tendencies………………………………………………………. 12 1.3. Data Interpretation………………………………………………………………….. 14 2. Descriptive Analysis of Asian Values and Its Influence on Democracy…………………. 17 2.1. Asian Values Discourse……………………………………………………………. 17 2.2. Historical aspects of Confucianism in Korean Politics…………………………….. 18 2.3. Modern Korean Political Ideologies……………………………………………….. 21 2.3.1 Korean Political Philosophy………………………………………………….. 21 2.3.2 Variables of Korean Ideological Orientations……………………………….. 24 2.4 Asian Values and Their Influence on Democracy………………………………….. 26 2.4.1 Asian Social Values………………………………………………………….. 28 2.4.2 Asian Political Values………………………………………………………... 29 3. Qualitative Analysis of the In-depth Interview…………………………………………… 32
3.1 Course of the Interview……………………………………………………………... 32 3.2 Question Analysis…………………………………………………………………... 33 3.2.1 Value of a Moral State……………………………………………………….. 33 3.2.2 Values of Anti-pluralism & Social Harmony……………………………….. 34 3.2.3 Values of Family-State and Group Primacy…………………………………. 36 3.2.4 Leader Qualities and Decision Leverage…………………………………….. 38 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………….... 41 References………………………………………………………………………………………. 44 Appendices
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Santrauka
Šis magistro laipsnio baigiamasis darbas tiria kartų skirtį Pietų Korėjos respublikos visuomenėje pagal 2012 m. gruodžio mėnesį įvykusių aštuonioliktųjų prezidento rinkimų rezultatus. Pagrindinis dėmesys yra telkiamas į politinių ideologijų pokyčius ir kartų kaitą praėjusiame dešimtmetyje, kadangi elektorato politinių ideologijų pokytis išryškino pamažu atsirandančią kartų skirtį.
Pasitelkiant aprašomąją pirminių bei antrinių šaltinių analizę bei giluminio interviu metodą atviro tipo klausimais siekamas darbo tikslas – išsiaiškinti ar Korėjos elektorate tikrai pasireiškia kartų skirties fenomenas ir jeigu taip, kokios yra jo priežastys.
Aštuonioliktųjų prezidento rinkimų statistinė medžiaga ir Korėjos rinkėjų politinės orientacijos vystymasis yra pateikiamas aprašomosios analizės principu. Po šios analizės, giluminis interviu su korėjiečiais respondentais turi patvirtinti arba paneigti hipotezę, kad kartų skirtis yra svarbus kintamasis, lemiantis elektorato politinius sprendimus.
Darbe yra suformuluotos trys skirtingos užduotys, kurias yra siekiama atlikti skirtingose darbo dalyse:
Išanalizuoti regiono ir amžiaus kintamuosius gyventojų apklausose ir aštuonioliktųjų prezidento rinkimų rezultatuose; Nustatyti vertybines sistemas, kurios daro įtaką moderniosios Korėjos politinėms ideologijoms; Išskirti kartų kintamąjį ir išsiaiškinti kaip jis siejasi su prisirišumu prie konfucianizmo vertybių.
Atlikus surinktų duomenų, literatūros ir interviu analizę pasitelkiant įvairius metodus, buvo prieita prie kelių pagrindinių išvadų, atsakant į darbe iškeltus uždavinius. Pagrindinės darbo išvados teigia, kad:
kartų skirtis Korėjos elektorate egzistuoja; kartų skirtis yra svarbus kintamasis lemiantis Korėjos elektorato politinius sprendimus; kartų skirties atsiradimui įtaką padarė ne natūralus gyvenimo ciklas, o istorinės ir socialinės aplinkybės.
3
Introduction
South Korea (hereinafter Korea) has elected its first female chief executive on 19 December, 2012. The next day almost all headlines in major Korean daily newspapers read “Park Geun-hye elected S. Korea’s first female president”1. Aside from the fact, that the landmark victory of the conservative from Saenuri Party creates a precedent in the Far East Region by Park Geun-hye being the first female leader of the state in modern times, the election results also revealed a mixed public sentiment.
President Park Geun-hye is a daughter of the President Park Chung-hee, a military strongman who ruled Korea for 18 years after military coup until his assassination in 1979. The Park Chung-hee authoritarian rule is still rather controversial among Koreans. It is no doubt that Korea experienced a rapid economic growth during his rule, but Park Chung-hee also revised national constitution several times in order to stay in the office 2 . Due to such historical circumstances Park Geun-hye also has an image of “dictator’s daughter”, especially as she has been the acting first lady of the state in 1974-1979 after her mother’s assassination 3 . Despite the controversial image, however, Park Geun-hye has always had a number of loyal supporters, because throughout her political career she has built an image of a politician who “values principle and trust”4.
Aside from the surface issues that display mixed public sentiment, the results of the 18th presidential election of 2012 illustrates the outcome of unique development of Korean democracy. Democratic regime in Korea is relatively new, as democratization reached Korea with the third wave of global democratization in the late 1980s (Bernhagen et al, 2009: 50). The first democratic election in Korea was held in 1987 after the collapse of Chun Doo-hwan authoritarian regime. Naturally, the long history of authoritarian rule left its own imprint on the Korean political culture. Although the country is developing towards a mature democratic regime, it has its own peculiarities that are not common among Western democracies.
Korean political ideologies and the citizens’ awareness of the politics are shaped by a number of variables. Unique democratization process, historical circumstances, cultural values,
1 Top Headlines in major S. Korean papers, Yonhap News, 2012-12-20 2 South Korea – History, Mogabay.com 3 Profile of President Park Geun-hye, Gateway to Korea, Korea.net 4 (LEAD) (Election) Park Geun-hye wins presidential election, Yonhap News, 2012-12-20 4 current political and economic situation and the shifting demographics – all come into one to influence the voters’ decision during the General Assembly or the Presidential elections. Shifting demographics is one of the main concerns regarding the Korean political atmosphere. Korea is considered to be an aging society with over 12% of its population being 65 years old and older5. A country acquires a state of an aging society when citizens of 65 years and older make up more than 7% of the entire population (Heoyong 2007: 117). According to the United Nations report World Population Ageing 1950-2050 6 , by the year 2050 citizens above 65 years in Korea should significantly outnumber citizens younger than 14 years. (Heoyong, 2007: 118).
Therefore, although the number of citizens who are eligible to vote has grown by 2.81 million in Korea since 20077, the steadily growing number of senior citizens is becoming an important determinant in Korean politics. Citizens above 60 years and older make up 20.8% of the Korean electorate8. Thus, their political and cultural values are at play during important elections as well.
The 18th presidential election was of no exception as well. According to Yonhap News Agency, the solid support of baby boomers and senior citizens was the main factor that allowed Park Geun-hye to win the presidential race 9 . The latest Korean presidential election had an exceptionally high voter turnout – 75.8%. The general expert view is that high turnout signifies a higher number of young voters coming to vote. Since young generation in Korea normally vote for liberal candidates it would seem that the high voter turnout should have been in favour of the Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in. However, an evenly high turnout of the voters above 50 years of age determined Park Geun-hye’s victory10.
Therefore, the result of the 18th presidential election in Korea clearly displays an evident generational cleavage which, according to the United Nations report, is only expected to widen. Due to different social and historical circumstances that different generations grew up within, their political ideologies exhibit a stark contrast. This contrast and the reasons for it provide a basis for further research, which could also be used later on as a pattern for prediction of future election results.
55The WORLD FACTOBOOK, Korea, South. Central Intelligence Agency 6 World Population Ageing: 1950-2050, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations 7 Ser M. Korea elects 1st woman president (2012), Joongang Ilbo, 2012-12-20 8 ibid 9 (Election) Winning baby boomer, senior votes secures victory for Park, Yonhap News, 2012-12-20 10 ibid 5
The 18th presidential election in Korea has been chosen as a basis for analysis in this thesis, because it is a major recent political event. The 19th election to the General Assembly11 was also held earlier in 2012, on April 11th, however, the results of the General Assembly election are not being taken into consideration in this thesis for two reasons:
a) Korea is a semi-presidential republic where the president is the chief executive officer, thus presidential election holds a bigger political significance, and therefore; b) Presidential election evokes more interest from the public and its results display a wider scope of Korean political ideologies.
The difference of Presidential and General Assembly elections can be illustrated by the voter turnout as well – while the voter turnout for the 18th presidential election was 75.8%, it was a relatively lower of 54.2%12 for the General Assembly election.
Unique historical circumstances give a foundation for an exclusive development of Korean democracy and political ideology. Unlike the general perception of the development of Western democracy where it had to go through the class struggle, there was nothing of the kind during the Korean democratization process (Kim 2008: 57). Also, Korean democracy is still a relatively new regime and the newly emerging generational cleavage provides a background for a completely new political culture that the country has not been exposed to before.
The subject of the thesis is Korean generational cleavage. Theory overview and descriptive analysis in the further part of the thesis are focused on the Korean political ideologies and their development. The main focus is on the 2000s, because the shift of the voters’ political ideology has displayed the emergence of significant generational cleavage. Taking into account the descriptive analysis of the results of the 18th presidential election and a qualitative research via interview, the aim of the thesis is to determine whether there really is a generational cleavage present among the Korean electorate, and if so, what are the reasons behind it. Aside from the life cycle-induced generation gap, there may also be other circumstances that influenced the formation of difference political ideologies between different generations. Such variables as historical, social and economic circumstances should be taken into consideration as well.
11 National Election Commission (중앙선거관리위원회) 12 ibid 6
After the descriptive analysis of statistical 18th Korean presidential election data and Korean political culture, an empirical analysis will be presented by qualitative research. The empirical analysis of an interview with the representatives of the Korean electorate, each of different age group, should either confirm or deny the hypothesis that generational cleavage is an important variable that determines electorate’s political choices. Each part of the thesis has different tasks. There are three parts of the thesis and each of them deals with three different tasks: Analyse regional and generational variables in the opinion polls and the election results of the 18th Korean presidential election; Determine value systems that influence modern Korean political ideologies; Single out the generation variable and see how it correlates with attachment to Confucian values.
The generational cleavage aspect of Korean electorate is only emerging. The most recent literature sources regarding Korean political landscape was published right after the 17th presidential election in 2008; therefore, the 18th presidential election presents a new plane for analysis, because within the five year term of president Lee Myung-bak, the Korean electorate has experienced a generational shift – as it has been mentioned before, the Korean electorate experienced an influx of 2.81 million new eligible voters. It resulted in a change of the general landscape of Korean electorate.
This thesis provides descriptive analysis and qualitative research that analyses the cause of the 18th Korean presidential election results, maintaining that generational cleavage is an important variable. There has always been a stark regional rift among Korean electorate, and it has functioned as the main factor in forming political ideologies. Nevertheless, the change of time and democratic development gives way for a new variable that is generational cleavage. As a result, this new variable provides a basis for new research.
Different methods will be used to accomplish the three tasks that have been indicated above. In order to accomplish the first task there will be carried out an analysis of statistical data from primary sources. Primary sources include articles and poll data from three Korean news agencies and statistical data on the 18th Korean presidential election from the National Election Commission. Secondary sources will be used in order to accomplish the second task of determining Korean political value systems. It will include a descriptive historical overview of the influence of Confucianism on Korean political development, the most recent developments of Korean political
7 ideologies, as well as distinguishing a number of social and political values that influence the development of Korean democracy. The descriptive analysis will be based on a number of essays and articles. Finally, an independent qualitative analysis by the means of an in-depth interview will be carried out to accomplish the third task. The qualitative research via interview will be carried out in order to apply the generational cleavage variable by surveying representatives of different generations of the Korean electorate, regarding their standards for making political decisions. The thesis has three parts – the first part deals with the first task of analysing regional and generational variables based on primary statistical data. The second part provides background for the Korean political landscape by describing the Asian values discourse and how it influences the development of liberal democracy in Korea. A number of values thought to be important in shaping the understanding of liberal democracy are determined. The third part of the thesis provides an analysis of qualitative research via in-depth interview. The variables that have been determined in the previous parts are applied in the final part of the thesis in order to prove the hypothesis.
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1. Descriptive Analysis of Statistical Data
The first part of the thesis will accomplish the first task of analysing regional and generational variables in the opinion polls and the election results of the 18th Korean presidential election. First of all, in order to give background information, a short history overview of Korean presidential election will be presented. Then an analysis of primary sources will present a general turnout of the 18th presidential election and the regional and generational rifts present in the opinion polls and election results. Finally, an interpretation of data will be provided based on the analysed information and the Korean media articles. The descriptive analysis of primary source data will help to determine whether the generational cleavage exist in the Korean electorate or not.
1.1 Historic Overview
Throughout the history of Korean presidential election there is a tendency for long-lasting political leaders. The first presidential election of the republic of South Korea was held in 1948. It was an indirect election and Syngman Rhee was elected the first president13. He was re-elected twice in direction election until Yun Bo-seon was elected president in indirect election in 196014. After military coup in 1961 General Park Chung-hee was elected president in 1963 and he held the post until his death in 1979. Park Chung-hee was re-elected several times via direct and indirect elections, after several constitutional changes during the military dictatorship and the so- called Yushin system15. After Park Chun-hee’s assassination there was a short transitional period, until power was seized by a military leader Chun Doo-hwan and he was elected president twice from 1980 to 1987, when Korea entered the so-called period of the Sixth Republic and the first democratic direct presidential election was held. The succession of presidents of the Sixth Republic is presented in the table below: Date President Party 1987 Roh Tae-woo Democratic Justice Party 1992 Kim Young-sam Democratic Liberal Party 1997 Kim Dae-jung National Congress of New Politics
13 Rhee Syngman, Doosan Encyclopedia 14 Yun Bo-seon, Doosan Encyclopedia 15 Yushin Constitution, Doosan Encyclopedia 9
2002 Roh Moo-hyun Millennium Democratic Party 2007 Lee Myung-bak Grand National Party 2012 Park Geun-hye Saenuri Party
Table 1. Source: Doosan Encyclopedia
The 18th presidential election of the Republic of South Korea took place on December 19th, 2012. There were six candidates registered for the election – Park Geun-hye from Saenuri Party, Moon Jae-in from Democratic United Party and four independent candidates: Park Jong-sun, Kim So-yeon, Kang Ji-won and Kim Sun-ja. However, the four independent candidates received less than 0.2% of votes each16.
The three main candidates presented their presidential election pledges on October 24th, 2012; however, the two main rivals in the presidential race were Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, after another independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo withdrew from the race in November 2012, with less than a month left until the election17. Eventually, Park Geun-hye was elected president.
Park Geun-hye won the 18th presidential election by a small margin – she received 51.9% of votes (15,773,128 votes18) becoming the first Korea’s female president. Moon Jae-in scored 47.7% of the votes (14,692,632 votes19). According to JoongAng Ilbo (elsewhere JoongAng Daily) which is one of the three biggest newspaper publishers in South Korea, compared to the 17th presidential election in 2007 the number of eligible voters in 2012 has grown by 2.81 million. It shows that a generation of new voters has entered Korean electorate. Nevertheless, the voters in their 20s make up only 18.1% of the electorate while the largest demographic groups of voters are those in their 40s (21.8%) and people in their 60s and older (20.8%)20.
The voters’ turnout, regional and generational differences will be further analysed in the next section of the thesis. The turnout will be analysed first, and before the data analysis, there will be given a short presentation of the primary sources.
16Voting Progress Situation, National Election Commission 17 Choe S., South Korea Is Surprised by Departure of Candidate, NY Times, 2012-11-23 18Voting Process Situation, National Election Commission 19 ibid 20 Ser M. “Korea elects 1st woman president” (2012), Joongang Ilbo, 2012-12-20 10
1.2 Analysis of Statistical Data in Korean Media
1.2.1 Voters’ Turnout
Due to the fact that the topic of the thesis is related to a relatively recent event, most of the sources about the 18th presidential election are Korean news articles in English and Korean. Four major Internet portal sources are used for the statistical data analysis: Yonhap News Agency JoongAng Ilbo Hankook Ilbo National Election Commission
Yonhap News Agency is the largest news agency in Korea and it provides over 3000 news items daily covering a wide range of topics21. JoongAng Ilbo is one of the biggest three Korean newspapers founded in 196522. Hankook Ilbo is also one of the biggest newspapers in Korea that has been published since 195423. The National Election Commission is an independent organization in Korea; it has a fairly high status and manages all national elections 24 . The main reason for having founded the National Election Commission in 1963 was to ensure fair and democratic elections. The National Election Commission provides all major information related to National elections, as well as extensive statistical data.
According to the data provided at the Korean National Election Commission the Korean electorate is comprised of 40,507,842 individuals. Total of 30,721,459 citizens have voted in the election thus making the total Picture 1: Presidential election turnout timetable. Source: Yonhap News Agency voter turnout 75.8%. The highest voter
21 About Us, Yonhap News Agency 22 About Us, Korea JoongAng Daily 23 About Us, 회사소개, Hankooki 24 About NEC, Status and History, National Election Commission 11 turnout has been registered in the Gwangju Metropolitan city – 80.4%25. Gwangju Metropolitan city is the main city of the Jeolla region.
The presidential election turnout table (Picture 1) presented by Yonhap News Agency26 displays the election turnout for the last four presidential elections in Korea. Data shows that the turnout has been on the decrease since the 15th presidential election in 1997. The 15th presidential election has coincided with the Asian Financial Crisis that had a great toll on Korea as well27. High voter turnout during economic crisis would lead to an assumption that during economic crises voters are more inclined to vote, because the election results may affect their lives directly. Nevertheless, it would be hard to claim that there is a pattern, because Korea has not experienced a financial crisis since the 2007-2008 financial crisis28 and the voter turnout for the 17th presidential election which coincided with the crisis was the lowest among the four elections presented in the statistics data. Therefore, it is possible to presuppose that there is not only economic factor involved in the increase of the voter turnout for the 18th presidential election compared to the previous one.
According to a list of presidential candidates’ approval rating surveys before the election, two tendencies are the most visible: there are generational and regional gaps. These cleavages are also visible in the opinion polls and the election results. Therefore, these tendencies will be analysed separately based on the data of the aforementioned news agencies and the National Election Commission.
1.2.2. Regional tendencies
The survey table presented in the next page is taken from Hankook Ilbo special website page for the presidential election of 201229. Hankook Ilbo is a daily Korean newspaper published by the Hankook Ilbo Media Group, and it also publishes an English-language daily newspaper The Korea Times30.
25 Voting Progress Situation, National Election Commission 26 2012 Presidential Election, Graphics, Yonhap News 27 Hill, C, The Asian Financial Crisis, University of Washington 28 Sharma, S.D, From Meltdown to Bounceback: How South Korea Weathered the 2008 Financial Crisis, Global Asia, March 2013 29 2012 Election Opinion polls, Hankooki 30 The Korea Times 12
The table in Korean on the left of the Korean map presents the main presidential candidates approval rating by region and by generation. The region data is displayed on the Korean peninsula map. Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae- in are considered to be “main” presidential candidates in the graph. The left column represents the percentage of voters who approve of Park Geun-hye, and the right column represents the percentage of voters who approve of Moon Jae-in.
The survey has been carried out nation-wide and it was published on December 13th, 2012. A thousand of male and female above 18 years of age have been surveyed. Region, sex and age of the respondents have been allocated in consideration with the overall Picture 2: The main candidate approval rate by region and by generation. proportions of the national Source: Hankook Ilbo population31.
As far as the regional distribution is concerned, the biggest amount of respondents who support Park Geun-hye from the conservative Saenuri Party (previously known as Grand National Party) reside in Kangwon province (65.9%), Daegu Metropolitan city and North Gyeongsang province (69.5%), and also the south Gyeongsang region in South Gyeongsang Province with Busan Metropolitan city and Ulsan Metropolitan city (56.2%). The south eastern part of the country (Gyeongsang region) is considered to be the most conservative one. What is more, it has also been
31 2012 Election Opinion polls, Hankooki 13 mentioned that regionalism has always been a prevalent part of Korean politics, and the voters tend to vote for the politicians from the same region.
It may seem to be reasonable, considering that Park Geun-hye has been born in Daegu32. However, Moon Jae-in is also originally from South Gyeongsang Province (Geoje city)33, but the survey data shows that the biggest amount of his supporters are located in Jeolla region and Gwangju Metropolitan city (74.7%), Seoul (47.6%) and Gyeonggi Province (49.2%). Hoseo region with Daejeon Metropolitan city and both Chungcheong provinces display a very even distribution of both candidates’ supporters. Considering that Jeolla region is thought to usually vote for progressive candidates, Moon Jae-in’s association with Democratic United Party and not his birth place should be playing the main role in influencing the respondents’ approval.
Final election toll data by region presented by JoongAng Ilbo on December 21, 2012, shows that the regionalism tendencies displayed in Hankook Ilbo’s opinion polls remain. The data provided by National Election Commission and arranged by JoongAng Ilbo show that Park Geun-hye won almost in all provinces of Korea except for Seoul, Gwangju and the Jeolla region: while 51.4% of voters in Seoul voted for Moon Jae-in the, he had a major upper hand in Gwangju with 92% of Picture 3: Final election toll by region. Source: JoongAng Ilbo the votes. On the other hand, Park Geun- hye had the largest number of supporters in Daegu (80.1%) and North Gyeongsang province (80.8%). Although the amount of people who voted for the conservative candidate was significantly larger in Busan, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang province and Gangwon, as far as other regions and metropolitan cities are concerned, Park Geun-hye won only by a slight margin. In such regions as Jeju Island, Gyeonggi province or Daejeon Metropolitan city the difference between the final tolls was only by tenths of per cent.
32 2012 Presidential Election, Leading Candidate‘s Bio, Yonhap News 33 ibid 14
It suggests, that the overall distribution of candidate approval was relatively even, and there was a small yet significant leverage that resulted in Park Geun-hye’s victory. Although the Korean National Election Commission does not provide the data for the vote toll results by generation, the three main broadcasting corporations in Korea – KBS, MBC and SBS conducted a joint exit poll at 360 polling places across the country. The media surveyed 86,000 voters from 6 a.m. (when the polls opened) to 5 p.m.34. The results of the exit poll as well as the number of eligible voters among different generations could have been a clear indicator of the election results.
As such, the generational tendencies of the 18th Korean presidential election will be analysed in the next sub-part of the thesis.
1.2.3 Generational tendencies
The main candidates’ approval rate generational layout presents yet another picture (see Picture 1). The approval rates of each candidate by respondents in their 40s are almost evenly distributed with only a marginal advantage for Moon Jae-in (48.1%) as opposed to Park Geun-hye (44.1%). However, Park Geun-hye has high approval rates among the older generation – 59.9% of respondents in the 50s approve of the Saenuri Party candidate and 64.9% of respondents in their 60s and older claimed to approve of the female candidate. On the contrary 56.5% of respondents in the 18-29 age group, and 63.2% of respondents in their 30s approve of Moon Jae-in. The generational approval data shows a definite generational cleavage between progressive and conservative party candidates, certifying the study by Chong-Min Park and Doh Chull Shin presented in the next part of the paper, which postulates that older generations tend to be more attached to Confucian values and thus more conservative. However, it is not clear whether this generational cleavage emerges because of life-cycle effect or generation effect. Deeper analysis should be provided by a qualitative research.
Although the candidate approval survey by Hankook Ilbo suggests that the distribution of candidate supporters is distributed somewhat evenly when all demographic groups are taken into account, the fact that voters in their 40s and older account for the bigger part of the Korean electorate does offer an explanation why Park Geun-hye has been elected president.
34 Ser M. “Korea elects 1st woman president” (2012), Joongang Ilbo, 2012-12-20 15
The generation gap in the exit polls correspond with the generation cleavage presented in the Hankook Ilbo survey. According to the joint exit poll by KBS, MBC and SBS, voters in their 20s, 30s and 40s mostly voted for Moon Jae-in (65.8%, 66.5% and 55.6% accordingly). Whereas voters in their 50s and 60s voted for Park Geun-hye (62.5% and 72.3%). Compared to Hankook Ilbo candidate approval survey the number of voters in their 20s who voted for Moon Jae-in is relatively higher, but so are the numbers of voters in their 50s and 60s who have voted for Park Geun-hye. There is no difference between the support of demographic groups towards one or the other candidate. However, the exit polls suggest that the number of Moon Jae-in supporters among the voters in their 40s was slightly higher than in the approval survey (55.6% as opposed to 48.1% in the Hankook Ilbo’s survey).
According to Joongang Ilbo, even the exit polls may not Picture 4: Generation gap have reflected the exact situation regarding conservative voters. representation by the exit poll. Source: JoongAng Ilbo Journalists Kim Jung-ha and Kwon Sang-soo argued on December 21, 2012 that the older voters were the ones who determined Park Geun-hye’s victory35. This victory partially came as a surprise for a part of Korean society, because the public sentiment was not very supportive to Park Geun-hye. Yet, as it is explained in the article, the public sentiment is mostly generated on the Internet cafes and social networks36, while the elder generation in their 50s and 60s are not avid Internet users. Therefore, it becomes harder to determine the exact public sentiment as analysts are exposed only to a part of Korean electorate online. Keeping in mind that the elder generation makes up 40% of eligible voters37, the public sentiment displayed on social media cannot be accounted for the entire Korean population.
According to a political consultant Kim Hee-gyeong cited in the article, “many conservative voters were not reflected in opinion polls that were conducted prior to the election”38. It is thought that conservative voters were more eager to vote for Park Geun-hye due to her experience as a stable political leader “in the midst of concerns about an economic slowdown and security
35 Kim, J & Kwon S, Older voters made all the difference, JoongAng Daily, 2012-12-21 36 ibid 37 ibid 38 ibid 16 challenges by North Korea”39. Therefore, in order to grasp the main reason behind regional and generational tendencies described in this and previous part of the thesis, an interpretation of the analysed data is necessary.
1.3 Data interpretation
After the election Park Geun-hye promised “motherly” leadership40. It relates to the Korean political ideologies and their attachment to Confucian values that are going to be discussed in the next major part of the thesis. It is expected of the president Park Geun-hye to display “motherly” leadership, because according to Confucian values the family model is metaphorically applied to the state as well. Thus, since the president is the chief of state that holds the highest executive power41, she is inevitably considered a metaphorical parent of the country. What is more, the next part of the paper discusses an aspect of a Korean character that says Koreans have a built-in desire for a strong leader.
Park Geun-hye comes from a conservative hard-liner party, and her family background also gives her an exceptional image, because she is a daughter of Korean military statesman Park Chung-hee who ruled the country for 18 years from 1961 to 197942. Park Chung-hee is still a controversial figure in South Korea, and that is why the election of his daughter as the new president has evoked mixed feelings. For example, a reader comment under news article about Park Geun-hye says:
Picture 5: Twitter comment under an article about Park Geun-hye‘s presidency. Source: JoongAng Ilbo
“Since she’s already been elected, it’s not something one can reverse, but since I have a right to criticize, I shall continue doing so. The United States, England and all the other
39 ibid 40 Ser M. “Korea elects 1st woman president” (2012), Joongang Ilbo, 2012-12-20 41 The WORLD FACTOBOOK, Korea, South. Central Intelligence Agency 42 Park Chung-hee, Encyclopaedia Britannica 17
developed countries have reported that “dictator’s daughter has become a president”. Well, you can imagine it without saying lol. How much they will laugh thinking that Koreans are so dim-witted to actually elect the dictator’s daughter as their president? Lol”43
It is possible to presume that Park Geun-hye’s background may have been just as important in helping voters to make a decision as her political platform. What is more, general political platforms by the two main candidates were not significantly different, so one comes to an assumption that voters had to rely on other variables to choose which candidate to vote for.
Based on presidential preview article at Groove Korea website for foreigners living in South Korea, the main goal of Park Geun-hye’s platform was set for welfare and “economic democratization”44. The goal for welfare improvement could be explained by the fact that according to OCED (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) statistical data on public spending, Korea ranks the last45:
Tax breaks towards families Services Cash 4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0 OECD-33 average =2.6% 2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
Table 2. OECD Data on Public Spending. Source: OECD Official Home page
43 Ser, M Raised in Blue House, Park returns as president, JoongAng Daily, 2012-12-20 44 Little, J. Presidential Review: Park Geun-hye, Groove Korea, 2012-12-03 45 Statistics, OECD Home 18
However, Moon Jae-in also came with a platform that had a motto “People first” (사람이
먼저다46). As a result, his president campaign promises were also centred on the welfare system, as well as protection of minority groups and curbing labour laws and practices setting work hour limits and changing laws regarding part-time workers47.
Thus, just as it has been mentioned above, the platforms of the two main candidates were not too different to play a major role in winning the voters over. Also, the analysis of statistical data found in Korean news portals and National Election Commission suggest that although regionalism is still strong in Korean politics, the main decisive force in the 18th presidential election was the generation gap, when the older generation outweighed the younger by a slight margin thus resulting in Park Geun-hye becoming a president. Therefore, data provides enough evidence to claim that at least one generational cleavage exists in Korean electorate.
The question is what is the main factor that prompted such generational cleavage to appear? Public sentiment on social networking websites displayed dominantly negative attitude of the younger generation towards Park Geun-hye, because of her reputation as “dictator’s daughter”. However, as far as the historical memory is concerned, it is the older generation that actually has experienced the authoritarian Park Chung-hee’s regime. Is it a desire for a strong leader figure and nostalgia for the military man that influenced the election results? Do Confucian values have anything to do with it? Is the rift between generations created by life-cycle or historical effects? Were the election results influenced by the economic situation or was it purely a logical outcome of the value-oriented Korean political orientation?
The theoretical base for these questions will be discussed in the next part of the thesis.
46 People First (사람이 먼저다), Moon Jae-in Naver Official Blog 47 Little, J., Presidential Preview: Moon Jae-in, Groove Korea, 2012-12-03 19
2. Descriptive Analysis of Asian Values and Its Influence on Democracy
The second part of the thesis aims to determine value systems that influence modern Korean political ideologies. First of all, the notion of Asian values discourse has to be explained. Afterwards, the historical background of Korean political development will be given, to give a general impression of what has been the base of Korean politics since the Joseon dynasty in the 14th century. Next, an emergence of new Korean political ideologies will be presented, displaying the most recent changes of the perception of politics by the Korean citizens. Finally, a number of Asian values that influence political ideologies will be pointed out, and there will be presented a survey analysis that explains how Koreans are attached to every of those values. The analysis of value systems and public attachment to them will help to determine the rift in the generational cleavage that has been revealed in the previous part of the thesis.
2.1 Asian Values Discourse
According to a Provost Professor Beng Huat Chua at National University of Singapore, the Asian values discourse has emerged in the 1980s (Chua, 1999). Although different countries in East and South East Asia had different experience regarding Asian values and modernization, the main idea behind the Asian values discourse was the necessity to explain a rapid economic development of authoritarian Asian countries. Korea was one of them. It was necessary to find an explanation for a rapid economic development, because Asian values in general referred to Confucian values. As Professor Mark R. Thompson notices in his article Whatever happened to “Asian values”? (2001), according to Max Weber’s thesis “Confucianism was an obstacle to economic development” (Thompson, 2001: 155), and democracy was a necessary variable that could ensure consistent economic growth. Nevertheless, with the fast growing economies of authoritarian Asian countries in the 1980s, the Asian values discourse emerged, maintaining that Confucian ethos was responsible for rapid economic growth in Asia, just as the “Protestant ethic had done in the West” (Thompson, 2001: 155). Also, the Asian values discourse juxtaposes the virtues of Asian communitarianism and good governance with the disadvantages of Western liberal democracy and individualism (Thompson, 2001: 154). Nevertheless, the Asian values discourse has experienced a blow with the 1997-1998 Economic crisis, because the crisis showed that Asian values do not offer a universal replacement for the Western liberal democracy. However, Asian values remain dominant variable in the
20 economic and political life of a number of Asian countries, because of the far-reaching cultural and historical background. This juxtaposition between liberal democracy and the Asian values is relevant in Korea’s case as well, because throughout the centuries Korea has been a stronghold of Confucianism and such historical and cultural heritage cannot be erased fast. What is more, the country has experienced a rapid democratization process since 1987 and Koreans have willingly adopted the notion of liberal democracy. Yet, since the Confucian heritage cannot be overlooked, it is the synthesis of Confucian (Asian) and liberal democracy values that influence Korean modern day politics. The historical background of how Confucianism influenced Korean politics until the advent of democratization in 1987 will be explained in the next section of the thesis.
2.2 Historical aspects of Confucianism in Korean Politics
Descriptive historical overview of the influence of Confucianism is based on Young Whan Khil’s book Transforming Korean Politics: Democracy, Reform and Culture published in 2005. In his book professor Khil argues that culture is a variable that constantly shifts and changes (Khil 2005: 40), thus it can be postulated that cultural shifts affect Confucianism and its values as well. Also, Young Whan Khil argues that despite the fact that Confucianism is generally considered to be a hindrance to democracy, in Korea the relationship between the two value systems is far more complex and Confucianism contributes to the development of Korean democracy.
The difference between democracy and Confucianism lies at their core values – democracy relies on the rule of law (Bernhagen et al. 2009: 3), while Confucianism is based on the moral state (Park et al. 2006: 352). Therefore, it is expected that the acquisition and application of democracy in Korea has followed a unique pattern due to its Confucian heritage. It may seem that since there is a lack of rule of law and social contract among the basic Confucian values, introducing democracy in Confucianism-based society would encounter a number of obstacles.
However, according to Francis Fukuyama, “the relationship between Confucianism and democracy is far more complex than many commentators have indicated” (1995: 23). What is more, the late South Korean president Kim Dae-jung (1925-2009) has countered the claims that democracy cannot be established in Korea because it is a foreign concept by saying the following in his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech in 2000:
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“Consider the people to be heaven”, “people are heaven”, “consider serving people equal to serving heaven” – these and similar ideas have been established as fundamental principles of the politics more than 3000 years ago in China, Korea and other countries.
Aside from these thoughts closely related to human rights, there were also systems and ideas that had many things in common with democracy. According to Mencius, the disciple of Confucius, “the king is son of the heavens, and heaven chose its son to govern the people. However, if the said king does not govern properly and oppresses the people, then the people have a right to evict the king.” (Heoyong, 2007: 190)
The aforementioned “heaven’s choice” is else known as mandate of heaven which, according Confucian idea of a moral state, stands for the notion of good government (Khil, 2005: 40). Confucianism identifies a state model with a family model and due to such identification the Confucian system of political ideas is highly value-oriented. In his book “Transforming Korean Politics: Democracy, Reform and Culture” Young Whan Khil says that culture is a dependent variable that can shift and change as a response of a major trauma or because of a natural process of development (Khil, 2005: 40). Keeping in mind, that Confucianism has been established as the national philosophy with the founding of Joseon dynasty in 1392, it is no doubt that it still accounts for a big part of cultural heritage. Nevertheless, the aforementioned constant cultural shift applies to the Confucianism values as well.
The further description of relationship between the traditional Confucian values and Korean democratization is based on Young Whan Khil’s analysis of Korean politics in relation to Confucian norms. The Confucian values that are thought to influence the Korean electorate decisions will be laid down in detail further on, along with the analysis of an article published by Chong-Min Park and Doh Chull Shin.
As it has been mentioned above, with the founding of Joseon dynasty in 1392, king Taejo of Joseon and his advisors decided to adopt Confucianism as the main state ideology. As a result, Joseon dynasty established Zhu Xi’s (1130-1220) school or principle and the country became self- proclaimed most Confucian country in East Asia (Berthrongs 2000: 170). This philosophy permeated almost every single aspect of Korean a society. Hyon Sang-yun, who wrote The History of Korean Confucianism (Choson Yuhak-sa), expressed that this kind of Confucianism’s influence can be seen as both positive and negative to the Korean society (Khil 2005: 41).
Negative assessment of Confucianism in Korea is primarily influenced by the fact that it has been considered to be a hindrance for economic development. Nevertheless, with the re-evaluation of the Confucian values in 1990s distinguished five basic Confucian values that have been instrumental factors in Korean modernization: filial piety, moral government, respect for status, 22 emphasis on education and importance of social harmony (Khil 2005: 43). All these main values are important in shaping the characteristics of a Korean society.
It also greatly contributed to the characteristics of Korean politics. For example, such values as filial piety and loyalty were responsible for shaping a social moral character that turned politics into a stable and predictable process (Khil 2005: 45). It implies that a state can be ruled from one centre and all responsibility can be taken by a ruler who has “heaven’s mandate”. Whereas liberal democracy infers that no ruler can be perfect, and thus the rule of law has to prevail, Confucianism makes an assumption that the world is “good” by itself and high morality can be achieved via education (Khil 2005: 46). The importance of education will be proved several times further on in the analysis of the generational cleavage of Korean electorate.
With an advent of the 20th century and the fall of Joseon dynasty Korea did not have a chance to experience a natural development of democratization. The country was a colony of imperial Japan from 1910 to 1945 and then after a few years it experienced a civil war between the two halves of a divided nation. Korea War ended in 1953 and up until 1987 Korea was mostly ruled by authoritarian regimes that focused on economic development rather than on an establishment of human rights. In the midst of turbulent history, modernization and democratization entered Korea in the last decade of the 20th century (Khil 2005: 50).
A number of East Asian area studies specialist share an opinion that Korean way towards political modernization and liberal democracy has been hindered by its Confucian heritage. Namely, the post-Confucian society with a paternalistic culture has been thought to be bound to exhibit patrimonial social order (Khil 2005: 51). What is more, it allows one to presuppose that although Korea has achieved a rapid economic modernization, it does not mean that it has “succeeded in attaining the goal of political development and democracy” (Khil 2005: 52). Korea is still a young democracy, and the values of its society are shifting according to the generational change.
The most dynamic shift in Korea’s political culture occurred during the last two decades with the end of the Fifth Republic ruled by Chun Doo-hwan and the first democratic elections that were held in 1987. Due to its cultural Confucian heritage and the influx of democratization, Korean political culture has been going through a development that is unique to the region. There has been a shift in the ideological orientations of the electorate and the nation’s awareness of the politics in general.
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The political ideologies that influence the most recent political decisions of the electorate and election results will be discussed in the next part of the thesis.
2.3 Modern Korean Political Ideologies
As far as literary sources about Korean political ideologies and democratization are concerned, most of them cover the transition from authoritarian regime to liberal democracy, and the further development of Korean democracy until the first half of 2000s, namely – the end of Roh Moo-hyun’s presidency and the accession of Lee Myung-bak. Most of the prepositions and theses related to the Korean political ideologies and the emerging generational cleavage are presented by Korean university professors in essay collections and studies published in journals about Asian studies.
The review of Korean political ideologies is based on a collection of essays by Korean university professors, edited by the Korean Herald and the Korean Political Science Association. Authors of selective essays argue that the economic growth Korea had experienced during the authoritarian era paved way to civil society that now has means to influence the regime, as the country is trying to fully adopt liberal democracy. Growing political awareness among the Korean society is one of the main reasons of political change, and the main challenge Korea now faces is the developing of a mature democracy (Yang, 2008:25).
This section of the thesis mainly focuses on two essays – Toward a “balanced democracy” in Korea by Professor Byung-hoon Suh at Soongsil University and The ideological orientations of Korean voters by associate professor Wook Kim at Paichai University. The first essay deals with inner contradictions of Korean political ideologies, and the second essay deals with a demographic shift among the Korean voters, and points newly emerged variables that influence political decisions of the Korean citizens.
2.3.1 Korean Political Philosophy
Professor Byung-hoon Suh from Soongsil University in his essay Toward a “balanced democracy” in Korea points out that there are contradicting discrepancies in what Koreans currently consider their political philosophy – there is a desire for extreme equality and a strong leader figure at the same time (Suh 2008: 29). The desire for a leader figure can also explain the 24 nostalgia for strong authoritarian figures such as the former dictator Park Chung-hee. It is rather peculiar that nostalgia for the strong leader figures of 1960-1970’s permeates even the educated, because Korean journalists have been noted to blame the political leaders of the early 2000s be to easily subjected “to the will of the people because of the blindness for popularity” (Suh 2008: 28).
The two contradicting political philosophy phenomena seem to co-exist in Korea side by side. It could be presupposed that the Korean thirst for egalitarian society is driven by the fact that at the end of the 19th century Korea had one of the most unequal societies in the world (Suh 2008: 30). However, with the introduction of democracy and its emphasis on human rights, the Korean society embraced it as a notion that promises unconditional equality. Nevertheless, absolute equality cannot be seen as a natural outcome of democracy. To emphasize this, professor Suh paraphrases the French thinker Alexis de Tocqueville, saying that democracy can be “threatened by the unconditional thirst for equality” (Suh 2008: 29).
The Korean admiration for icons and strong leaders stands at the opposite side of the spectrum of political philosophy. In fact, according to professor Suh, such “icon-fixation is at odds with the philosophy for democracy” (Suh 2008: 30). The reasons for it can be drawn from the cultural and historical heritage of a strong paternal ruler figure in Confucianism that prevailed during the entire Joseon dynasty, and also the recent experience of the authoritarian rule that is still alive in the historical memory. Also, the contrast between preferences for egalitarianism and a strong leader is especially visible during the times of higher economic fluctuations.
That is to say, during strong democratization movements in the late 1980’s, the Korean society was very eager to implement egalitarian principles. Yet, after a few years since the first democratic elections, during the Asian economic crisis in 1997, the desire for a strong leader figure emerged once more, because of the popular opinion that “excess of democracy” was the main cause for the economic crisis and the overall slow progress (Suh 2008: 32). As a result, society looked back with a tint of nostalgia towards the days of General Park Chung-hee’s authoritarian regime and its rapid economic development. Consequently, the desire for a strong leadership rose under the impression that a strong leader was necessary in order to revive national economy.
It was no longer human rights or establishment of liberal democracy that mattered the most to the Korean society. These tasks deemed to have been accomplished, and the people turned to the most topical need – the revival of the national economy. This kind of thinking can also be applied to the 2007 presidential election, when the outcome arguably was influenced by the people’s demand for a better economy (Park 2008: 184). Then Lee Myung-bak was elected president and considering 25 the fact that he was a CEO of Hyundai Engineering and Construction, it was the first time when the elected president has not been a human rights activist. Thus, when the society is not satisfied with current economic situation, it can be presupposed that such issues as social equality, human rights, justice or international relations (especially the ones with the United States or North Korea) retreat into the background, and the demand for a strong leader figure rises.
It proves that Korean democracy is still not mature, especially as the universal democratic values are sometimes at odds with Korean cultural heritage. For example, liberalism is still not warmly accepted in Korea due to its association with individualism. Due to the fact, that society is still considered to be more important that individuals in the Korean mind, it is thought that personal freedom can be sacrificed for the “benefit of the national interest” (Suh 2008: 33). That is also one of the reasons why some of the national parties are not inclined to relate their ideology to liberalism. The general understanding in Korea is that anyone who identifies himself as liberal is automatically individualistic and therefore neglects the needs of community (Suh 2008:34).
It is a general Korean view towards individualism and one of the main reasons why they view it negatively. Individualism (and therefore liberalism) is considered to be a somewhat selfish ideology that overlooks community interests in favour of individual gains. What is failed to notice here, is the fact that social contract and the inevitable social concern is an integral part of individualism and consequently of liberalism as well. One can only cater for his personal needs and enjoy personal rights when one fulfils one’s obligations.
Professor Byung-hoon Suh argues that the success or failure of democracy strongly depends on historical coincidence and that Koreans need to learn that democracy is a mixture of things – only a “golden mean” lead to a mature democracy (Suh 2008: 35), not one particular aspect of it. Therefore, the presupposition is that the current cultural values that have come together with the historical heritage have to shift and blend together with democratic values. Just as it has been pointed out in the previous section, culture is a subject to change, and the same can be applied to the political culture as well. The general conception is that political culture of Korean society will change along with the generational shift.
Since the generational shift influences the development and change of Korean political philosophy, the newly emerged generational variable is determined in the analysis of the second essay.
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2.3.2 Variables of Korean Ideological Orientations
Generational shift has demonstrated that it is one of the reasons for the newly formed political ideology-based social cleavage that has emerged in Korea in the early 2000’s. Although economic issues prove to be an important leverage for voting in the dynamic Korean society, in his essay The ideological orientations of Korean voters professor Wook Kim of Paichai University argues that political ideology in Korea “is more meaningful in political and cultural dimensions” (Kim 2008: 57). Therefore, cultural values affect people’s attitude towards politics the most.
Naturally, the distribution of political ideology among Korean voters was highly influenced by the historical context as well. For example, during the authoritarian rule any discussion about political ideology was virtually impossible, and Korean politics was dominated by conservative ideology (Kim 2008: 55). Yet, the National Assembly elections in 2004 when explicitly leftist the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) gained 10 seats in the assembly showed that the ideological orientation of Korean voters is becoming more diverse than ever (Kim 2008: 57).
The main difference between the Korean political ideology and that of the Western countries is that there was no period of class struggle in Korea (Kim 2008: 57), and so there is no genuine concept of left and right in the Korean political ideology. Instead the leading political parties identify themselves as either conservative or progressive, and the influence of the rift between the conservatives and the progressives was first visible in the presidential election held in 1997. Although then the main factor that influenced the election results was still regionalism, the main difference between the two candidates, Kim Dae-jung and Lee Hoi-chang was not in their policy platforms but in their ideological orientations (Kim 2008: 58). It is also believed that five years later, the progressive Roh Moo-hyun managed to win the 2002 Presidential election because he gathered support from relatively young progressive voters (Kim 2008: 59).
It shows that with the advent of 2000s a new generation of voters emerged, and it influenced an emergence of a new social cleavage that differed from the existing rift that has mostly been based on regionalism. (Kim 2008: 59). As a matter of fact, region has been strongly related to the voters’ political orientation throughout the modern Korean history. There has always been a rift between the voters in Jeolla region (which includes North and South Jeolla provinces and Gwangju City) and Gyeongsang region (North and South Gyeongsang provinces, with Daegu and Busan Metropolitan Cities). The animosity between the regions can be traced back even to the Three Kingdom’s period (57 – 668), when the regions represented the rivalling kingdoms of Baekje and Silla respectively. 27
Nevertheless, according to Professor Wook Kim, the most recent ideological rift between the regions has been influenced mainly by the political experience (Kim 2008: 61). Whereas Gyeongsang voters tend to be conservative and support such conservative parties as Saenuri Party (previously known as Grand National Party), the voters in Jeolla region are more progressive because political leaders who hail from the region (like the late president Kim Dae-jung) usually choose the progressive side of political ideology (Kim 2008: 62).
However, although regional conflicts have long been the main source of influence on the Korean political orientation, with the end of 2000s new factors emerged, and with each new election these new factors tend to overshadow regionalism more and more. These factors are age and education (Kim 2008: 60). The general conception is that there are many factors that influence political ideological orientations. Apart from age and education, the Western societies show that such factors as gender, income, occupation and religion play significant role in shaping political ideology (Kim 2008: 60). Yet, the aforementioned variables are not as important in Korea as age and education, and it creates a unique feature of the Korean democratic development.
The importance of age and education in shaping the political ideology of Korean voters is based on a survey conducted in 2007 (Kim 2008: 60). As far as education is concerned, the higher the education, the more progressive the person is. According to the survey data, 30.8% of people with college education and higher considered themselves progressive, as opposed to 16.3% of progressive respondents among those with a middle school education or lower (Kim 2008: 60). What is more, higher education generally results in higher income and more prestigious occupation, yet these factors do not seem to have great influence on the voters’ ideological orientation. As a result, Professor Kim concludes that “Korean voters’ ideology is not so much economic as cultural (value-oriented) in nature” (Kim 2008: 61).
Finally, the greatest emphasis is put on the age factor, especially as according to the aforementioned survey, “voters in their 20s and 30s are more likely to be progressive, while those over 40 tend to be more conservative” (Kim 2008: 60). Such cleavage seems to be logical, yet the overall age influence on political ideology can be further separated into two elements – the so- called life-cycle effects and generational effects (Kim 2008: 60). These two elements imply that age influences people to shape political ideologies, because they are either of particular age, or because of certain historical circumstances they were raised in.
For example, the life-cycle effect implies that younger voters have a tendency to be progressive because they are young, while older voters will automatically lean towards conservative 28 ideology (Kim 2008: 60). On the other hand, the generational effect shows that voters who go through different political experience and are raised in different environments tend to form different ideological systems (Kim 2008: 60). Thus, according to Professor Kim, the generation effect manifests itself in Korea by the fact that post-materialistic values are mainly common among the younger generation of Koreans and so they are more inclined to be progressive, contrary to the older generation that holds materialistic values (Kim 2008: 61).
To take everything into account, the Korean political orientation has been long shaped by regionalism. However, recently political ideology has emerged as a new social cleavage and carries a great influence on Korean voters. As a result, policy and ideology are now just as important as regional sentiment in the electoral contests (Kim 2008: 62). Age emerges as the main factor of ideological orientation, and the ideology itself is not so much of an economic as of a cultural (i.e. value-oriented) nature. Consequently it allows one to presuppose that voters’ attachment to specific cultural values influence support for democracy in general.
It has been mentioned in the first part of cultural context review that Confucianism and its values play a great role in shaping political attitudes of the Korean society. When these entrenched values are met with the generational change the question arises whether the young generation is as strongly adhered to the Confucian values as the older generations. And on top of that, if Confucian state is based on moral government and democracy requires the rule of law, then does strong attachment to these values restrain support for democracy?
This issue has been addressed by Chong-Min Park, Professor of Public Administration at Korea University, Seoul, and Professor Doh Chull Shin, Professor of Political Science at the University of Missouri-Columbia, USA, in their paper Do Asian Values Deter Popular Support for Democracy in South Korea? , that has been presented at the annual meeting of the Association for Asian Studies, March 2004, in San Diego, California, and later on published in the Asian Survey journal, Vol. 46. The article analysed in the next part of the thesis presents the general Korean society attachment to Confucian (Asian) values and how it correlates to such variables as age and education that have been indicated as being the most important factors in shaping political ideology.
2.4 Asian Values and Their Influence on Democracy
In their study Chong-Min Park and Doh Chull Shin note that the general notion is that Asian values are incompatible with democracy. To be absolutely clear, they indicate that Asian values 29 mean Confucian values (Park et al 2006: 343). The reason why Confucianism is considered to obstruct democracy is that it is not based on individual rights and social contract. There are quite a few Confucian values involved in the shaping of Korea society, however, the study focuses only on politically relevant Asian values that include “importance of family, concern for virtues and ethics, the primacy of the group over the individual and emphasis on unity or harmony” (Park et al 2006: 343). These values influence both social and political lives of the Korean people. The question is, however, to what level different demographic groups of Koreans are attached to the values.
In general, according to the Confucian morality, personal moral virtues are more important than individual rights, and consequently the concept of human rights may not be considered to be extremely important for social well-being. The justified mode of ruling is thought to be not a rule of law, as in liberal democracy, but the rule of virtue (Park et al 2006: 344). Here the country model that has been discussed in the first part comes into picture once again, by defining a country in terms of family. The household metaphor becomes a base for proper social and political behaviour (Park et al 2006: 344) and consequently a country leader is viewed as a father figure.
Nevertheless, although it may seem that adherence to such values may hinder the development of democracy; Confucianism also emphasizes the importance of education (Park et al 2006: 244). And in the previous part it has been established that education is one of the most important factors that shape progressive political ideology of Korean society. Education clearly influences the change of perception of democracy in Korea, and therefore it could be said that with its emphasis on education, Confucianism contributes (albeit indirectly) to the development of Korean democracy as well.
To analyse the influence of Confucian values on the development of democracy, Chong-min Park and Doh Chull Shin divided politically relevant values into two groups – Asian social values and Asian political values (Park et al 2006: 345). They single out seven political and social Confucian values and analyse Korean society’s attachment to them. The values are as follows:
Social hierarchy Social harmony Group primacy Anti-pluralism Family-state Moral state
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Anti-adversarial politics
2.4.1 Asian Social Values
The social adherence to Asian social values was analysed based on the East Asia Barometer (EAB) Survey carried out in Korea in February, 2003. The four dimensions of Asian social values analysed in the study were social hierarchy, social harmony, group primacy and anti-pluralism (Park et al 2006: 345).
Social hierarchy is especially important in Confucianism, because it offers basic foundation for Confucian morality. What is more, it gives a presumption that elders are never wrong. However, the EAB survey has shown that 52% of respondents “indicated that they do not uphold filial piety” (Park et al 2006: 345) and 56% said that they do not believe the authority is legitimate just because the leaders are older than you. Although 64% of responders are still at least partly attached to the norms of social hierarchy (Park et al 2006: 346), in general it would seem that Korean society is more detached from this Confucian value that one would have initially expected.
The value of social harmony is tightly related to collective welfare, and it places shared goals above individual objectives. As it has been mentioned before, individual sacrifice is viewed as desirable, because of the necessity to fit in with the others. The EAB data has showed that 71% of respondents are still highly attached to this value, and they try to avoid clashes with other people, “regardless of the context” (Park et al 2006: 347). As a result the value of social harmony is closely related to the value of group primacy.
However, there are two aspects of the value of group primacy that are viewed differently by the Korean society. Although 70% of respondents in the EAB survey agree that one should put his interests second in favour of one’s family, the social primacy, when individual should sacrifice one’s goal for the sake of the society gathers support only from 55% of the respondents (Park et al 2006: 348). Therefore, although Confucianism offers that a family metaphor should be extended to the overall structure of society, the modern day Korea does not seem to be too eager to adhere to this aspect of the value of group primacy.
Finally, the value of anti-pluralism is considered to be important in Confucianism because the lack of different ideas is thought to be necessary to maintain social unity and order (Park et al 2006: 348). However, based on the EAB Survey data, the Korean people do not seem to be very
31 attached to anti-pluralism. Only 35% of the respondents agreed that organizing a big number of groups would disrupt community harmony (Park et al 2006: 348). Therefore, it would suggest that Koreans do not think that pluralism could exert negative influence on social harmony. From this it is obvious that out of four Asian social values anti-pluralism is the one that is being challenged in contemporary Korea (Park et al 2006: 349).
The attachment to the aforementioned Asian social values has a few demographic variables, such as age, gender, income, region and education. According to Chong-Min Park and Doh Chull Shin, the variables that matter the most are age and education, as they influence difference levels of attachment to Confucian values the most. For example, the respondents who were fully attached to the aforementioned social values were mostly present among the elderly and poorly educated (Park et al 2006: 350). Thus, with the generation shift and the expansion of education one could expect the attachment to social Asian values to diminish.
2.4.2 Asian Political Values
Social attachment to Asian political values was analysed by Chong-Min Park and Doh Chull Shin based on six questions from EAB Survey that were related to three Asian political values: the family-state, the moral state and anti-adversarial politics (Park et al 2006: 350).
As far as the data provided in the study is concerned, it shows that 59% of Koreans do support paternalistic rule, but it is not unconditional. Koreans do not think that the decisions of political leaders cannot be questioned, because the people are “more likely to remain loyal to their rulers only when they perceive the rule as benevolent” (Part et al 2006: 351). Benevolence is considered to be one of the main virtues of a Confucian ruler, but the fact that Koreans do not adhere to this notion fully shows that they do not take the moral propriety of political leaders for granted. It can also be closely related to the fact that Korean society is getting more detached from the value of social hierarchy that would also be important for sustaining the family-state.
Next, the moral state value is closely related to the Confucian idea of the rule of virtue that in theory contradicts the rule of law notion within liberal democracy. 63% of respondents agree that moral virtue is very important in politics, but only 40% of respondents agree that the government can decide what the public can and cannot be exposed to (Park et al 2006: 352). It shows that although Koreans still highly appreciate the moral virtue of political leaders, they do not think that
32 leaders should decide everything for the society, and thus that would mean that Koreans strongly disagree with censorship and other means of public control.
Anti-adversarial politics advocates the necessity of unify executive, legislative and judiciary powers in order to ensure good governance (Park et al 2006: 353). However, the EAB Survey data presented in the study suggest that Koreans are not highly attached to this value, because only 46% of respondents think that the government cannot perform its function if it is constantly checked by other governing powers (Park et al 2006: 353). What is more, 69% of the respondents endorse the independence of judges from the executive branch. It also explains why the Korean Constitutional Court is viewed as an important part of Korean political scene by the public, because its authority highly depends on its public perception – as long as it manages to keep its unbiased and non- political reputation, the court is sure to maintain its public support (Cha 2008: 300).
After the analysis of EAB Survey data on Asian political values, Chong-Min Park and Doh Chull Shin conclude that two values, namely family-state and moral state, are still highly entrenched in the Korean society, while anti-adversarial politics value is openly challenged by the Korean public (Park et al 2006: 353). What is more, just like with the social values, the main demographic variables for the attachment to Asian political values are age and education (Park et al 2006: 354) – younger generation and people with higher education were more likely to be detached from the Asian political values. Just like with the perception of political ideology, such factors as gender or income did not prove to have a strong leverage on the attachment to Confucian values.
Consequently, Chong-Min Park and Doh Chull Shin used bivariate and multivariate analysis to see whether attachment to the aforementioned values influence regime support. The general idea would be that those attached to Asian values are more likely to support authoritarian regime and vice versa (Park et al 2006: 355). However, no significant influence has been found and the analysis led the authors to conclude that “Asian values play no major role in deterring the Korean people from embracing democracy as a political system” (Park et al 2006: 357). Anti-adversarial politics has been indicated as the value that may be responsible for orienting ordinary people towards authoritarian rule, but this value was proved to be challenged in the modern Korean society by the data provided in the EAB Survey (Park et al 2006: 359).
Therefore, it is possible to say that rather than deterring people from democracy, Confucian values play an important role in shaping a type of democracy that is unique for Korea. Naturally, some of the values are eroding due to generational shift, however the importance of such social values as social hierarchy and social harmony is very unlikely to disappear soon, not to mention that, 33 according to Chong-Min Park and Doh Chull Shin, even those respondents who are attached to Confucian values seem to be supportive of democracy (Park et 2006: 360). The professors also emphasize that attachment to such Confucian traditions as benevolent paternalism becomes a basis of nostalgia for authoritarian rule.
Naturally, the nostalgia for authoritarian rule is more prevalent among the elder generation due to its relatively higher attachment to Confucian values and the generational effect described in the previous part of the paper that dealt with the historical and social circumstances within which a person has been raised. As a result, different level of attachment to traditional values and different types of political ideologies provides a basis for generational cleavage that manifests itself during nation-wide elections.
Since it has been established that generational cleavage exists in the Korean electorate, the next part of the paper will single out the variable in order to analyse how it correlates to the attachment to Asian social and political values that have been analysed in this part of the thesis. The correlation between Asian values and the generational cleavage will be analysed by using qualitative method via in-depth interview.
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3. Qualitative Analysis of the In-depth Interview
The third part of the thesis will single out generation variable in order to see how it correlates with attachment to Confucian values that have been analysed in the previous part. The correlation will be determined by qualitative in-depth interview analysis. Eventually, after the interview analysis is complete, taking into account the analysis carried out in the previous part of the thesis it will be possible to either confirm or negate the hypothesis that generational cleavage is an important variable that determines the political choices of the Korean electorate. To see whether respondents are attached to a number of Asian values, the interview analysis will be separated into several sections. Each section will deal with a particular Asian value (moral state, family state, anti- adversarial politics, group primacy, social harmony) that is encoded into an interview question.
3. 1 Course of the Interview
The interview took place in the last week of April, 2013. The initial objective was to interview four respondents of different age group by e-mail. However, eventually, twelve interviews were carried out with the help of Song Hyejeong and Lee Yeongju, Korean language instructors as Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Four interviews were carried out by email and eight interviews were carried out in Seoul face to face, following the same questionnaire in Korean (see Appendix 1 and 2) that has been used for the e-mail interviews.
It was an anonymous interview with thirteen questions. There were four closed and nine open questions. The four closed questions were given in order to determine which demographic group the respondents belong to. The questions included, age, sex, education and region. Out of twelve respondents three were in their 20s, four in their 30s, two in their 40s and three in their 60s. There were four male and eight female respondents, however, the gender variable was included only for statistical purposes, because this thesis does not deal with the gender variable, nor is it considered to hold significant leverage in the political decision making process of the Korean electorate.
As far as the education is concerned, eight respondents had undergraduate degrees, four had graduate degrees and one had middle-school education. The home region of the respondents also varies. Half (six) of the respondents indicated Seoul as their home town, there were three
35 respondents from the Jeolla region, one from Gyeongsang region (Busan Metropolitan city), one from Daejeon (Chungcheong province), and one from Gyeonggi Province.
The age variable is the main focus of the thesis and therefore of this interview analysis as well. However, taking into account that region and education have been identified as important variables as well in the previous part of the thesis, the interview analysis will help to determine not only how generational cleavage correlates with the attachment to Asian values, but also, how it is influenced by such variables as region and especially education.
3.2 Question Analysis
3.2.1 Value of a Moral State
The Moral State value is one of the Asian (Confucian) values that maintain the country’s politics has to be based on the rule of virtue. As such it is contrasted against the notion of the rule of law that is one of the core principles of the liberal democracy. Questions six and eleven in the questionnaire ask for a respondent’s opinion on a situation that is closely related to both values – the rule of law and the rule of virtue. Depending on the answers of the respondents, the correlation between age and the application of Asian values in practice will be determined.
Question number six asked “What do you consider more important – the personality of a candidate or his/her political ideology?” Keeping in mind, that the basis of Confucian politics is the rule of virtue, those respondents who are attached to Asian values are thought to answer that the personality of a candidate is more important that the political ideology. Also, based on the analysis in the previous part of the thesis, the elder generation is thought to be more attached to the Asian values, and thus the three respondents in their 60s were deemed to choose candidate’s personality over political ideology.
Seven respondents said that political ideology is more important than candidate’s personality. Four respondents claimed that candidate’s personality is more important that political ideology. One respondent maintained that both are equally important. Personality was chosen as the more important feature by two respondents in their 60s and two respondents each in their 30s and 40s.
The main argument behind political ideology being more important is that the electorate chooses which candidate to vote for based on his/her policies and which party the candidate belongs to. According to one respondent in her 20s, the political ideology is more important because it 36 represents the political direction the electorate expects the country to undertake, whereas, candidate’s personality can be seen as a supplementary part of the overall political system.
On the contrary, the respondents who chose personality as the most important feature claimed that personality is a basic human trait, and if personality is not exemplary then the candidate cannot be expected to be a good politician as well.
The first question related to the value of a moral state and rule of virtue shows a tendency that respondents of older generation seem to be more inclined to rely on Asian values while evaluating a political candidate. The next question that is also related to the value of a moral state inquires what the respondents think about a situation when a political leader initiates a change of law for his/her own benefits, and whether this kind of situation is acceptable if the leader is benevolent. The question refers to the Asian value of the rule of virtue, which says that benevolence is one of the main features of the leader.
All twelve respondents have responded that in their opinion, even if the leader is benevolent, it is impossible to accept a situation when a leader changes laws for his/her own benefits. A few respondents maintained that it is the nation for whose benefits laws has to be changed not the political leader himself. Such answers raise a question whether a particular part of the electorate would accept unilateral law changes by a benevolent leader in favour of the country. However, respondents in their 20s and 30s were very direct in expressing their opinion, and the general sentiment was that no one can change a law unilaterally, because everyone is equal against the law. It shows that the notion of the rule of law, that is important for liberal democracy, is considered to be an important value by Korean electorate. It can be presupposed that it is supported by the Korean thirst for egalitarian society, which was mentioned in the previous part of the paper.
The analysis of the questions that are related the value of a moral state show that the benevolence of a leader cannot outweigh the notion of the rule of law. Even though a number of respondents who belong to the elder generation have pointed out candidate’s personality as an important factor in his/her evaluation, the general tendency is that the attachment to Asian political values is weakening, and the younger generation seems to be more attached to the values of liberal democracy.
3.2.2 Values of anti-pluralism & social harmony
Anti-pluralism and social harmony are important Asian social values that have been analysed in the previous part of the thesis. Confucianism considers anti-pluralism to be important 37 because a lack of different ideas is thought to be necessary to maintain social unity and order (Park et al 2006: 348). Social harmony is a value that is related to collective welfare. Collective goals are more important than individual objectives in a Confucian system and Koreans have been strongly attached to this value. According to the study in the previous part of the thesis, over 70% of Koreans are attached to the value of social harmony, and thus they try to avoid various clashes regardless of the context (Park et al 2006: 347).
Questions No. 7 and No. 10 were related to the values of anti-pluralism and social harmony. Question No. 7 inquired what a political leader should do if an oncoming political decision is not met with a favourable general sentiment. Four respondents said that the decision has to be changed and eight respondents claimed that the political leader has to go with the decision until the end.
However, three respondents pointed out that it depends on the situation. If there is only a part of people who oppose the decision, then it should still be carried out. The opinion of the three respondents coincided with the opinion of the remaining five, who claimed that the decision is usually made keeping in mind long-term effects in favour of the country, and in order to achieve that, certain groups of the electorate have to experience various losses. Nevertheless, the three respondents who had varying opinions point out that in case the entire nation is against an oncoming decision, then the decision has to be changed.
Two respondents in their 60s and two respondents in their 30s and 40s each said that the decision has to be changed no matter what, because political leader works on behalf of the nation, and the people’s opinion has to be taken into consideration.
The second question that is related to anti-pluralism and social harmony asked whether it is alright to agree with any kind of political decision in order to avoid conflict. Eight respondents said that it is better not to avoid conflicts, while four respondents claimed they tend to accept the decision no matter what. The respondents who agreed to avoid conflict were each from different demographic group – there was a respondent from his 20s, 30s, 40s and 60s each. It should be noted that the respondent in her 60s who pointed out that it is better to avoid the conflict by accepting the decision of the political leader had middle school education, while the other two respondents in their 60s who were against avoiding a conflict had undergraduate degrees.
Confucianism maintains that the avoidance of conflict is thought to be necessary for harmonious society, but a number of respondents pointed out that conflicts are not necessarily a disadvantage of the politics. According to a respondent in her 20s from Busan, conflicts are a part
38 of a process that is necessary in order to achieve better results, and the presence of conflicts as a whole is only natural.
From the description of these two questions, it is visible that the attachment to anti-pluralism value is relatively weak. Also, there is a distinction of social harmony and its influence on social and political life. Even though social harmony is an important value upheld by a high number of Koreans (Park et al 2006: 347), its influence on electorate’s perception of politics is not strong. In this case, it is possible to infer that the notions of social contract and liberal democracy take up a considerable part of the ideological orientation of Korean voters.
The respondents who answered that they are more inclined to accept the decision despite possible conflicts may be seen as both: attached to the value of social harmony or to the democratic value of social contract and the majority rule. In this case, it is possible to see how Confucian values and Western values interact in the same society, and how they complement each other consequently creating a unique political philosophy of the Korean voters.
There was a slight variation between the answers of the members from different demographic groups, but in general the values of liberal democracy seem to be prevalent among the respondents. It can also be attributed to the fact that almost all of the respondents have an undergraduate degree or higher. As it has been mentioned before, education is also an important variable that shapes political ideologies of Korean voters, and it can be easily correlated with the generation variable.
3.2.3 Values of Family-State and Group Primacy
The next set of Asian values that have been addressed in the interview questions were the values of family-state and group primacy. The value of family-state is closely related to the notion of the rule of virtue, because it applies the family metaphor to the state. That is to say – the ruler is viewed as a parent of the nation. As such, the family-state value also incorporates the value of social hierarchy, because filial piety is an important aspect of Confucian morality. Therefore, if a child-parent metaphor is applied to the nation and its ruler, then it is expected of the Korean voters to consider a political leader of the country a parent of the nation, without questioning his/her decisions.
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The social value of group primacy is also closely related to the value of social harmony. It requires putting the interests of the group before individual aspirations. This value can be considered to be corresponding to the majority rule that is one of the main rules of liberal democracy.
Question No. 8 was directly related to the value of the family-state. It inquired whether a respondent sees any problem in considering a political leader the parent of the nation. Ten respondents answered that considering political leader a parent of the nation is problematic, two respondents said there is no problem in that concept. One of the respondents who claimed that leader-parent metaphor is not problematic was in his 30s and the other respondent was in her 60s. It should be noted that the respondent in her 60s who supported the family-state metaphor had middle school education, while the other two respondents in their 60s who saw the concept as problematic had undergraduate degrees. From this it is possible to presuppose that the differentiation of opinion on political ideologies among the elder generation is influenced by the type of education they have acquired.
Also, the respondents who have opposed the family-state notion seemed to have a clear understanding of the difference between family and state. Since filial piety is a core concept of a society with implemented Confucian values, parents stand at the top of the hierarchical structure of the family. Therefore, if a family-state metaphor would be applied in practice, a political leader hierarchically would stand above the nation. However, two of the respondents pointed out that a political leader works under the nation, carrying responsibilities entrusted by the voters. A political leader is a citizen as well, and thus, according to the respondents, he/she cannot be considered a parent of the nation.
Question No. 9 is related to both – the value of group primacy and the majority rule of liberal democracy. The question inquires whether it is alright to question a political leader who has been elected by the majority. The presupposition is that if a group has elected a political leader then individuals or smaller groups should support the bigger group’s interests by accepting the decisions of a political leader who has been elected by the majority.
Three respondents have answered that it is alright to question the political leader, nine respondents expressed opposite opinion. Two respondents in their 20s and one in his 30s said that it is only natural to question a political leader.
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Curiously enough, both groups of respondents have justified their answers by the principles of democracy. The respondents, who claimed that it is alright to question a political leader, said that ability to question politicians is a principal part of a democracy. According to a respondent in her 20s, a politician is elected not because one expects to follow his/her lead unconditionally, but because a voter and a politician have similar political ideologies and orientations. Therefore, if there is something different from the way a voter thinks, it is absolutely possible to criticise the said political leader.
On the contrary, the respondents who said that a political leader should not be questioned also based their answers on the principles of liberal democracy, saying that if majority has chosen a leader the decision has to be respected, because majority rule is the essence of democracy.
Answers to this set of questions show that democracy as a regime is by no means questioned in Korea. The difference lies in the political ideologies of political leaders and whether they represent the political orientations of Korean voters. Such supposition can be correlated with the fact analysed in the second part of the paper, which said that older generation voters are more inclined to be conservative, while the younger generation voters are more inclined to be progressive. Therefore, even though all demographic groups accept democracy, they understand it differently, and their political decisions are influenced by their political orientations. In turn, the political orientations of the respondents are influenced by their age and education.
3.2.4 Leader Qualities and Decision Leverage
The final set of questions, question 12 and question 13 inquired what kind of qualities respondents value the most in a political leader, and what were the factors that influenced one’s decision during the 18th presidential election in December, 2012. The variety of answers will be provided in a table below together with the age data of the respondents.
Age Group Leader Qualities Decision Leverage 20s Ability to defend the country Parents’ opinion, and the candidate’s policies 20s Insight Candidate’s political orientation 20s Justice, objectivity, benevolence Political philosophy, the surrounding people, candidate’s promises, ability to fulfil them
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30s Leadership, integrity, ability to lead Political philosophy, integrity, political promises, the surrounding people 30s Relations, reason, leadership The performance of the previous president 30s Political orientation, previous Political orientation, political party, accomplishments personality 30s Independence, ability to distance Political orientation, political promises oneself from the surrounding people 40s Morality Leadership, the surrounding people 40s Personality, leadership Personality, leadership, future propositions 60s Trustworthy personality Excellent personality 60s Integrity Political orientation 60s Ability to lead Leadership, responsibility
While the answers regarding leader qualities vary from respondent to respondent, there seems to be a particular pattern regarding the decision leverage. It also explains why a majority of respondents chose political ideology as more important that leader’s personality – when it comes to making a decision, it is mainly the political orientation and political promises that matter to respondents of all age groups. Almost all of the respondents, who pointed out a candidate’s political orientation and political philosophy as one of the main aspects that influenced their decision during the 18th presidential election, added that their goal was to pick a candidate who would represent the voters’ values the best. Consequently, since it has been established in the second part of the thesis that political ideologies among Korean voters vary from one age group to the other, it is possible to assume that one’s age influences voter’s political decision.
What is more, the factor of “surrounding people” was mentioned by the respondents at least thrice. It shows that during presidential election, voters take into serious consideration which party the candidate belongs to. As a result, if it is hard to make one’s choice based on political promises, the candidate’s associations play a decisive role in presidential election.
It is relevant to the 18th presidential election, because as far as Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in’s presidential campaigns are concerned; their political promises were relatively similar. Therefore, in order to decide which candidate one should vote for, Korean voters considered the candidates’ parties and their political orientations. Statistical data analysis in the first part of the paper shows that Park Geun-hye won the election having received a considerable amount of votes
42 from the voters of older generation. It has been mentioned already that the tendency for the older voters is to choose the conservative political parties, and for the younger voters the tendency is to choose the progressive parties. Park Geun-hye belongs to a conservative Saenuri Party. Therefore, voters-wise age can be considered to be an important variable that determines Korean election results.
What is more, education has also emerged as an important variable; however, this thesis does not focus on it. It can be possible to consider education as a supplementary part of the age variable that influences it directly, because acquisition of education differs from generation to generation. As a result, acquisition of education can also explain the reasons behind the newly emerged generational cleavage.
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Conclusion
The subject of the thesis was Korean generational cleavage. It was presupposed that generational cleavage was an important variable in determining the results of the 18th Korean presidential election in December 2013. The 18th presidential election was won by the conservative Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye. Her victory evoked mixed public sentiment online which was the main point that influenced the research of this thesis.
The aim of the thesis was to determine whether the generational cleavage exists and what are the reasons behind it. The 18th presidential election was chosen as a field of analysis. The research was executed via descriptive analysis of primary sources, descriptive analysis of secondary sources, and a qualitative analysis of in-depth interview. The hypothesis formulated in the introduction of the thesis presupposed that generational cleavage is an important variable that determines political choices of Korean electorate. In order to either confirm or negate the hypothesis, three different tasks were formulated that provided a basis for the analysis and research in three different parts of the thesis.
The first task was to analyse regional and generational variables in the opinion polls and the election results of the 18th Korean presidential election. The data analysis in the first part of the thesis confirmed the presupposition that at least one generational cleavage exists in Korean electorate, because there were clear discrepancies between the supporters of the two main candidates – progressive Moon Jae-in and conservative Park Geun-hye. Based on the statistical data a majority of voters in their 50s and 60s voted for Park Geun-hye, while a majority of voters in their 20s and 30s voted for Moon Jae-in. Voters in their 40s represented a transitional stratum, because the vote distribution for both candidates in this age group was more or less even. Data analysis also showed that regional cleavage still exists in the Korean electorate and as far as the results of the 18th presidential election are concerned, generational cleavage and regional cleavages provided the main leverage in determining which candidate the electorate would vote for. Therefore, the first task was accomplished in the first part of the thesis by proving that the generational cleavage is present. What is more, based on the statistical data and the news articles, the generational cleavage was thought to be big enough to influence the presidential election results directly. Consequently, a question arose, asking how the generational cleavage came into being, and where there any political ideologies and orientations that influenced its emergence.
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The second part of the thesis was driven by the second task of determining value systems that influence Korean political orientation. The second section of the second part of the thesis proved that regionalism is no longer a dominant variable that determines the decision making process of Korean electorate. Generational cleavage was indicated as a newly emerged variable that can have leverage in determining political election results. There are two reasons behind the emergence of the generational cleavage – life-cycle changes and historical changes. The analysis of the study in the third section of the second part of the thesis, has shown that the attachment to these values grows weaker the younger the voter is, or the higher education he/she has. That is to say, voters of older generation that have undergraduate and higher degree are expected to be less attached to the Asian values regarding their political decisions, just as the younger generation. Thus, at the end of the second part of the paper it was determined that Asian social values and Asian political values influence political orientation of the Korean electorate. However, the attachment to these values varies, and the two main variables were determined to be age and education. Also, it has been shown that Korean voters clearly segregate application of Confucian values to their individual and social lives. That is to say – if Confucian values are applied in personal life, it does not mean that they are applied by default to the social/political life as well.
Therefore, the third part of the thesis followed the third task which was to single out the generation variable and check how it correlates with Korean voters’ attachment to Confucian values. The in-depth interview analysis has shown that respondents have a clear distinction between social and political lives. Therefore, although the influence of Confucianism is undeniable in the Korean social life, the interview analysis allows one to conclude that Asian values no longer have a strong influence on the political decision making process of the Korean electorate. However, since most of the respondents indicated political philosophy and political ideology as the main factors in deciding whom to vote for, the political orientations of Korean electorate once again brings forth the age variable, because there is a tendency for different age groups to have different political orientations. Therefore, the hypothesis which presupposed that generational cleavage is an important variable in the decision making process of Korean electorate has been confirmed. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that generational cleavage and therefore age is only one of the variables that influence how the Korean voters vote. The in-depth interview has revealed that education is also an important variable that directly correlates with age – due to historical circumstances, a bigger number of younger voters tend to have higher education level. 45
Consequently, members of older generations with high education level tend to have political ideologies and orientations similar to the younger generation. Therefore, yet another conclusion is that age and education variables are closely interrelated. The drawback of the in-depth interview was the lack of respondents who would have high school education or lower. However, it was problematic to find respondents of the older age groups who would be willing to communicate via e-mail. As a result, no respondents in their 50s have been interviewed. Nevertheless, the analysis of the in-depth interview allows one to come to a conclusion, that the generational cleavage in the Korean electorate was influenced by historical and social circumstances, rather than a natural life-cycle. If the emergence of generational cleavage has been influenced by natural life-cycle, then the well-educated respondents of the older age group would have had a political orientation different from that of the younger age group respondents. As such, with historical and social changes, the Korean electorate has experienced a shift of political ideologies and the spread of education, which consequently resulted in the emergence of generational cleavage. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that: Generational cleavage in Korean electorate exists; Generational cleavage is an important variable in political decision making process; The emergence of generational cleavage was influenced by historical and social circumstances.
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The Korea Times. Available at: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/index.asp (accessed 2013-04- 02).
The WORLD FACTOBOOK, Korea, South. Central Intelligence Agency. Available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ks.html (accessed 2013-04-02)
Thompson, M (2001), Whatever happened to “Asian Values”?, Journal of Democracy Volume 12, Number 4, October 2001, Johns Hopkins University Press. Available at: http://www.yorku.ca/ycar/programmes_projects/Session_One/Thompson.pdf (accessed on 2013-05- 02)
Top Headlines in major S. Korean newspapers, Yonhap News, 2012-12-20. Available at: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/topics/2012/12/20/73/4609010000AEN20121220002100315F.HT ML (accessed 2013-04-05)
Voting Progress Situation, National Election Commission. Available at: http://info.nec.go.kr/electioninfo/electionInfo_report.xhtml?electionId=0020121219&requestURI= %2Felectioninfo%2F0020121219%2Fvc%2Fvccp09.jsp&topMenuId=VC&secondMenuId=VCCP &menuId=VCCP09&statementId=VCCP09_%231&electionCode=1&cityCode=0&sggCityCode=0 &x=16&y=16 (accessed 2013-04-03)
Picture and Table Sources:
Picture 6: Presidential election turnout timetable. Source: Yonhap News Agency. Available at: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/topics/4609060001.html (accessed on 2013-04-04)
Picture 7: The main candidate approval rate by region and by generation. Source: Hankook Ilbo. Available at: http://election.hankooki.com/pre2012/survey.php (accessed on 2013-04-04)
50
Picture 8: Final election toll by region. Source: JoongAng Ilbo Available at: http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2964312 (accessed on 2013- 04-03)
Picture 9: Generation gap representation by the exit poll. Source: JoongAng Ilbo. Available at: http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2964312 (accessed on 2013- 04-03)
Picture 10: Twitter comment under an article about Park Geun-hye‘s presidency. Source: JoongAng Ilbo. Available at: http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=296 4252 (accessed on 2013-04-04)
Table 1. Succession of Korean presidents. Source: Doosan Encyclopedia. Available at: http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?cid=200000000&docId=1135021&mobile&categoryId=20000111 0 (accessed on 2013-05-05)
Table 2. OECD Data on Public Spending. Source: OECD Official Home pag. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/statistics/ (accessed on 2013-04-10)
Interview
12 anonymous interviews. Carried out in April 29 – May 10, 2013. Carried out by Egle Petrauskaite by e-mail with 4 respondents. Carried out by Song Hyejeong and Lee Yeongju in Seoul face to face with 8 respondents. Interview data see in the Appendix.
51
Appendix No. 1 – Interview Questionnaire
Vytautas Magnus University
Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy
Centre for Asian Studies
Egle Petrauskaite
1. Age 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 2. Sex Male Female 3. Education < High School High School Undergraduate Graduate 4. Region
5. If you were going to vote for a candidate who withdrew from the presidential race in December 2012, why did you vote for another candidate who stayed? Have you voted at all? 6. What do you consider more important – the personality of the candidate or his/her political ideology? Why? 7. If an oncoming political decision is not met favourable by the general public sentiment, what should a political leader do? 8. If a political leader is considered to be a parent of the nation, what kind of problems do you see in that kind of perception? Are there no problem at all? 9. Do you think that it is possible to question a political leader who was elected by the majority? Why? 10. What do you think about agreeing with any kind of political decision made by a political leader in order to avoid adversarial conflict? 11. What do you think about a situation when a political leader initiates law change on his/her account? Is it acceptable to tolerate it, if the leader is benevolent? 12. What do you value the most in a political leader? 13. What determines your choice during presidential election? 52
Appendix No. 2 – Interview Transcript 비타우타스 마그누스 대학교 정치외교학부 아시아 지역연구소 Egle Petrauskaite
논문 설문지 1
1. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
2. 성별
남 여
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
서울
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를 했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
다른 후보자에게 투표함, 그나마 나아 보여서
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
정치 사상이 중요하다고 생각함, 대통령이 정치의 제일 위에서 이끌어가야 하므로
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면
그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까? 53
바꿔야 하는 것이 맞다고 생각함, 대통령은 국민의 뜻을 대변하는 자리이므로
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면
어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
문제가 있다고 봄, 대통령은 국민의 아래에서 국민을 위해서 일해야 함
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
인정해야 한다고 봄, 나는 다른 사람을 뽑았으나 다수의 사람의 선택을 존중해야 함
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
잘못된 일이라고 봄, 주관을 가지고 자기 의견을 밀어 붙일 줄 알아야 한다고 보기 때문
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런 행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
잘못된 행동이라고 봄, 대통령은 자신을 위한 일을 하는 게 아니라 국민을 위해 일해야 함
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
청렴함, 자기가 깨끗해야 모든 일을 공정하게 처리할 수 있다고 봄
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
나와 생각이 비슷한 사람을 선택함, 나를 대신해서 내 생각을 실천해줄 수 있는 사람이 필요하다고 보기
때문
논문 설문지 2
1. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
54
2. 성별
남 여
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
서울
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를
했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
투표하지 않음
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
인격이 중요, 기본적인 것이 갖춰지지 않은 사람이 다른 걸 잘할 것 같지 않음
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면
그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
바꾸지 않아야 한다고 생각함. 대통령이 주관을 가지고 일해야 하기 때문
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면
어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
문제가 있다고 생각함, 대통령은 국민의 권한을 위임받은 것이기 때문
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
55
인정해야 한다고 생각함, 다수의 국민이 선택하였기 때문
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
잘못된 것이라고 생각함, 갈등을 조정하는 것이 대통령의 역할이기 때문
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런
행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
잘못된 것이라고 생각함, 자기가 아닌 국민을 위해 법을 만들어야 하기 때문
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
국정 운영 능력
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
국가를 이끌어가는 능력이 가장 중요하다고 생각함, 국가를 책임질 가장 힘있는 자리이기 때문
논문 설문지 3
1. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
2. 성별
남 여
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
서울
56
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를 했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
원래 지지하는 후보가 있어서 사퇴해도 상관없었음
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
정치 사상이 더 중요하다고 생각함, 대통령이 정치의 제일 위에서 이끌어가야 하므로
기본적으로 인격도 중요하다고 생각한다.
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면 그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
바꿔야 한다고 생각한다, 대통령은 국민의 뜻을 대표하는 자리이기 때문이다.
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면
어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
문제가 있다고 봄, 대통령은 국민의 아래에서 국민을 위해서 일해야 함
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
인정해야 한다
민주주의의 기본 원칙은 다수결의 원칙이기 때문에 인정해야 한다고 생각한다.
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
무조건 대통령의 의견을 주장할 게 아니라 한국 국민들의 의견을 수렴해서 다스려야 한다고 생각한다.
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런
행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
그것은 잘못된 행동이다. 개인을 위해서 다수가 희생해서는 안 된다고 생각한다. 대통령이라도 잘못을 하면
자신의 행동에 책임을 져야 한다고 생각한다.
57
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
주변 사람들의 이해 관계에 매이지 않아야 한다. 자신만의 생각을 가지고 국민을 위한 정치를 해야 한다고
생각한다.
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
나의 상황을 잘 이해하고 지지해 줄 수 있는 후보자를 선택하였다. 선거 공약을 중요하게 생각하고 내 생각과 같은 후보자를 지지하였다.
논문 설문지 4
1. 본인의 연령
- 20 대
2. 성별 - 여
3. 학력 - 대학(졸업)
4. 고향 - 전라북도 전주(호남지방)
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를 했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
첫번째 후보자가 사퇴하면 그다음 차선으로 생각했던 두번째 후보자에게 투표 (선택 하려고 맘먹었던 후보자는 사퇴하지 않았음. 만일 사퇴했더라도 다른 대안을 가진 후보에게 투표했을 것임.)
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
정치사상 > 인격. 인격과 기준을 잡는 사상은 별개라고 생각함 (대통령도 국민이지만, 그이전에 나라를 이끌고 가야할 수장임. 정치사상은 자신이 어떻게 이끌어 갈것인가에 대한 가장 기본이고 행동 방침임. 따라서 국정을 운영 방식에 있어 기준이 되는 사상이 없다면 그저 허허웃고 이리저리 끌려다니는 사람좋은 동네 이장님과 다르지 않을 것임) 58
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면 그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까? 대다수의 국민이 반대한다면 당연히 재고([명사] 어떤 일이나 문제 따위에 대하여 다시 생각함.)의 여지는 필요함. 그러나 어떠한 사안이냐에 따라 변경/진행은 선택될 수 있음. 단지 이전에 많은 반대에 부딪친다면, 해당 사안에 대해 한번쯤 더 생각할 필요가 있다는 것. 지금은 조선시대도 아니고, 하고싶다고 대통령 마음대로 할 수 있는 세상도 아님. (조선시대의 왕도 맘대로 할 수 있는 것은 거의 없었다고 하는데 하물며 대통령이 무슨...) 국민의 반대를 Nimbi 현상이라 착각 할것이 아니라, 왜 반대가 일어났는지, 이유를 생각하고 자신의 정책에 반영하는 유연성이 필요함 그럼에도 정책을 추진해야한다고 생각된다면 국민을 설득 시켜서 끌어올 올 수 있어야 제대로 된 국정운영을 하는거라고 생각함
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면 어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
대통령은 부모가 될 수 없음. 대통령이란 자리는 국민으로부터 책임을 일부 넘겨받아 임기동안 맡아서 지휘하는 것이지, 전적으로 책임지고 돌보아주는 부모님이 아님. 이건 개인적인 이야기지만, 근데 현재의 18 대 대통령님은 부모님이 되려하고있지...orz 집안살림하라고 돈벌어다줬더니(세금) 다른 형제살린다고 빚갚아주고 집사주고 하고있잖아;(최근 시행중인 국민행복기금 및 집구매시 세금빼주는거같은..) 그게 나한테는 안오고 바닥날 기세 - _- 근데 집살림해야하니 돈 더달래.. 어쩔.
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
일단 선출된 대통령은 인정. 대신, 국정운영에 있어서 멋대로 결정하고 처리하는 것은 납득 할 수 없음. 책임을 일부 전가받은거지 멋대로 행동하라고 준 대통령이 아님. 한사람의 멋대로인 행동이 전 국민이라는 다수에게 막대한 피해를 끼친다면 당연히 반대하고 실행하지못하도록 해야 하는 것이 옳음. 우리의견 받아 취합해서 잘좀 해봐 라고 뽑았는데 내맘대로 할거라능!!!! 이지랄하면 탄핵해야지 - _- 당연히 잘못된 것은 반대해야 함. 한명의 대통령이 뻘짓을 하면 그 이후 몇십년간 후대가 피해를 봄. (좋은 예시: 4 대강 뻘짓.... 파헤쳐진 강바닥 어쩔거야)
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
객관적으로 그 이유를 따져본 후 찬성/반대 결정. 정치적인, 감성적인 시점이 아닌 객관적인 시점에서의 이득과 손해를 따져 찬성/반대 해야함 11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런 행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
No. 반대. 딱잘라 반대.
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입법, 사법, 행정의 3 권분리체제가 괜히 있는게 아님. 아무리 능력있는 대통령이라 할지라도 권한 밖의 일은 하는게 아님. 대통령은 왕이 아님다. 조선왕조 500 년에서도 왕은 지멋대로 할수있는게 거의 없었음. 밀어부치면 왕노릇 오래 못해먹었음. 아무리 현재의 대통령이 국정운영을 잘 했다 한들 이익을 위해 법을 변경하려 한다는 자체가 잘못임. 법은 모든이에게 평등하게 적용되는 최소한도의 도덕(morality)임. 그런 것을 자신의 이익을 위해 변경하는 것은 사회적으로 지켜지고 있는 규범과 같은 기본적인 것들이 기준이 될수 없도록 만드는 것과 같다고 생각함.
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
공정성, 객관성, 아량
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
정치철학, 주변인물, 후보자의 공약, 실천 가능성.
논문 설문지 5
1. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
2. 성별
남 여
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
전남
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를 했습 니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
차선을 선택했다.
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6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
인격. 인격은 기본이며 기본이 먼저라고 생각한다.
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면 그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
사안마다 다르다고 생각한다.
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면 어 떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
문제가 없다고 생각한다.
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
잘못된 국정운영을 하지 않도록 할 것이다. 대통령은 국민에 의해 선출되었기 때문에 국민의 의견을 경청해야 한다고 생각한다.
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
결정이 잘못되었다면 반박하며 의견을 주장한다.
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런 행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
대통령은 입법에 관여해서는 안된다고 생각한다.
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
리더쉽, 청렴함, 국정수행능력
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
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정치철학, 청렴함, 공약, 주변인물 등
논문 설문지 6
14. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대∨ 40 대 50 대 60 대
15. 성별
남 여
16. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 대학원∨
17. 고향
서울
18. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를
했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
선택하려던 후보자가 안철수가 아님,
선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴하지 않아 투표를 하였음.
19. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
후보자의 인성은 기본이 되어야 하나 짧은 시간에 파악하기가 어렵기 때문에 정치 사상이 제일
중요하다고 생각함. 그리고, 혼자 정치를 하는 것이 아니기 때문에 그 사람이 몸 담고 있는 ‘당‘도 고려의 대상이 됨.
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20. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면 그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
국민이 먼저이지만 모든 일에는 이득을 얻는 집단도 손해를 보는 집단도 생겨나게 되므로, 대통령이
대선 당시 약속했던 것을 그대로 진행하는 것이 짧은 시간 정치를 하는데 도움이 된다고 봄.
21. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면
어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
대통령이 국민의 부모라고 생각한다는 말인가? 국민이 대통령의 부모라는 말인가?
대통령은 부모가 아니라고 생각한다. 사회를 좋은 방향으로 이끌어가는 지도자이다. 경제적 이득을 국민
다수에게 나누어줄 수 있는 사람이라고 생각한다. 그러므로, 부모가 아니라 나라의 경영자라고 생각한다.
22. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령?? 무슨 말인지 모르겠음.
적은 득표 차로 이긴 박근혜 대통령에 대한 의문을 말하는 것인가?
그런 질문이라면 의문을 제기할 수 있다고 본다.
너무 적은 표차, 투표 용지의 유실 등 많은 이야기가 있었는데, 이에 대한 조사는 철저하게 이루어져야 다음에 다른 말이 나오지 않을 거라고 생각함.
23. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
갈등을 피하기 위해 대통령의 어떤 정치적 결정도 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하는가?
정치적 결정은 전문가들이 하는 것이므로 문제 삼지는 않음. 하지만 한 나라의 정치적 경제적 생명이 좌지우지
되는 경우, 국민의 의견을 모을 수 있는 투표와 같은 시스템으로 결정해야 한다고 봄.
24. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런
행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
대통령이 자신을 위해서 법을 바꾼다고 생각하지 않음. 모든 결정은 이해관계에 의해 결정됨. 어떤 행동이
오고 갔는지 자신을 위한 것이었다면 국민들은 모를 가능성이 큼.
그럼 알게 되었다면 참을 수 없을 것 같음.
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25. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
대통령의 어떤 특성이 중요하다고 생각하는가?
대통령의 정치적 성향, 지금까지의 행보가 중요하다고 봄.
26. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
나의 선택을 확정 짓는 데에 큰 역할을 한 것은 나의 정치적 성향과 맞는 당을 선택하는 일이었음. 그리고 그
당이 얼마나 파워를 가지고 있는가에 대한 것, 의석 수 등이 중요했음.
물론 인격적인 부분도 고려함.
논문 설문지 7
1. 본인의 연령 -20 대 2. 성별 -여 3. 학력 -대학 4. 고향 -부산
5. 처음에 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를 했습니까? 아니면 투표를 하지 않았습니까 ? - 처음부터 사퇴 한 후보를 지지하지 않았기 때문에
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
- 정치사상. 물론 인격과 정치사상이 둘 다 좋으면 좋겠지만 굳이 우선순위를 꼽자면 정치사상이다. 내가 원하는 후보자의 정치성향 자체가 내가 바라는 국가방향이기 때문에. 후보자의 인격은 정치제도적으로 보완할 수 있다고 생각한다.
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7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 정치적인 결정에 반박한다면 대통령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 한다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까? -모든 경우에 있어서 그렇게 생각하는건 아니지만 대부분의 경우에는 처음 내렸던 결정을 밀고 나가야한다고 생각한다. 국가를 위한 결정은 장기적인 안목을 가지고 판단내린건데 눈 앞의 이익을 생각하는 대중들의 반발로 . 일일이 흔들리다보면 장기적인 안목을 잃을 수 있기 때문에.
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면 어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
아버지, 어머니와 동일시 하는 건 약간의 무리가 있다고 본다. 전체적인 리더쉽의 성향이나 존경한다는 점에선 비슷한 부분도 있겠지만 . 각자 부모님에 대한 감정,느낌이 다른 이유도 있고. 대통령은 희생정신으로 나를 위해, 모두를 대신해 나라를 위해 일을 해줄 사람이고 . 부모님은 나와 함께 관계를 맺으며 함께 하는 사람이라고 생각하기 때문에.
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까? 그 사람을 투표했다고 해서 앞으로의 모든 행동을 (무조건적으로) 지지한다는 의미가 아니고 나의 정치사상과 가장 잘 맞는 사람 (평소 지지하는 당의 후보를 뽑는 경우도 대부분이니까) 을 뽑았기 때문에 내 생각과 다른 부분은 비판 가능하다고 생각한다. 이는 투표와는 관계없는 문제같다.
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까? 갈등이 부정적인 요소라고 생각하지 않는다 . 갈등은 좋은결과로 나아가기 위한 과정이기 때문에 갈등을 피하기 위해 맹목적으로 따르는건 좋지 않다고 생각한다. 갈등이 있는게 당연하고 좋다고 생각한다.
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런 행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까? 사적인(지극히 개인적인) 문제나 욕구를 본인의 직위와 권한을 이용해서 해결하는건 당연히 안된다고 생각한다.
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 통찰력 . 대통령의 1 차적인 임무는 행정부 수반이므로 나라를 이끌어 나가기 위해 다양하고 많은 분야에 있어서 내려야 할 모든결정 (버릴것과 지켜야 할것, 앞으로 해야할 것 등등) 에 제일 필요한건 통찰력이라고 본다. 포괄적 운영에 있어서 핵심을 찌를 수 있는 능력이 있어야 하므로.
65
논문 설문지 8
1. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
2. 성별
남 여
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
한국, 서울
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를
했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
만약 호부자가 사퇴를 한 경우, 투표 하지 않을겁니다.
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
정치가 더 중요하다고 생각한다. 나라를 이끄러갈 사람의 인격은 하면서 바꾸진다고 생각한다.
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면 그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
대중의 반박이 매우 심하면 바꿔야 한다고 생각 하는데, 나라를 위해서 적당한 정책이면 대중이 뭐라해도 안 바꾸는것이 좋다고 생각한다.
66
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면 어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
이러한 생각을 해본적이 없습니다. 대통령은 국민을 이끄러가는 국민의 대표라고 생각합니다.
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
민주주의 사회에서는 정당한 것이니까.
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아드리는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
저는 가능하면 받아드리는 편입니다.
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런 행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
자기위해 법을 바꾸는 경구가 어떤 나라건 있습니다. 그러나 만약 심하다 싶으면 반대합니다.
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
국방부
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
부모님, 그리고 후보에 정책
논문 설문지 9
1. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
2. 성별
남 여 67
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
서울
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를
했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
사퇴를 안 했음.
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
정치사상. 정치가이기 때문에.
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면 그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
바꿔야 한다. 정치는 여론이 중요하기 때문에.
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면 어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
대통령은 국민의 부모가 아니라 대표일 뿐이다. 대통령도 국민이다.
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
선거를 통해 선출하면 일단 믿어야 한다. 믿지 못하면 민주주의가 없는 것이다.
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
68
갈등을 무조건 피하면 안된다.
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런
행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
자기를 위해서 법을 바꾸면 안된다.
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
도덕성
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
대통령의 리더십이 중요하고 주변에 같이 일할 만한 인재들이 있어야 한다.
논문 설문지 10
1. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
2. 성별
남 여
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
경기도
69
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를 했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
사퇴 안 했음.
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
인격. 인격이 좋아야 정치도 잘 한다.
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면
그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
국민 모두 반대하면 대통령이 결정을 바꿔야 하지만 일부가 반대하는 경우는 바꿀 필요가 없다. 대통령이
권위를 지켜줘야 한다.
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면
어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
문제가 없다.
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
의심하면 안 된다. 잘 할 수 있도록 믿어줘야 한다.
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
대통령의 결정은 일단 받아들여야 한다.
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런
행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
대통령 개인을 위해서 법을 바꾸는 이른 절대로 안 된다.
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
70
민을 만한 인격이 중요하다.
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
인격이 훌륭한 후보를 뽑는다.
논문 설문지 11
1. 본인의 연령
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
2. 성별
남 여
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
서울
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를
했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
원래 지지하는 후보가 있어서 사퇴해도 상관없었음
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
정치 사상이 더 중요하다고 생각함, 대통령이 정치의 제일 위에서 이끌어가야 하므로
기본적으로 인격도 중요하다고 생각한다.
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면
그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
71
바꿔야 한다고 생각한다, 대통령은 국민의 뜻을 대표하는 자리이기 때문이다.
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면
어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
문제가 있다고 봄, 대통령은 국민의 아래에서 국민을 위해서 일해야 함
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
인정해야 한다
민주주의의 기본 원칙은 다수결의 원칙이기 때문에 인정해야 한다고 생각한다.
10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
줏대 없는 짓이라고 생각.
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런
행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
절대 하면 안 되는 행동.
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
인격, 중용, 리더십.
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
그전 대통령이 잘 했는지 못 했는지 보고 잘 했으면 같은 당은. 못했으면 다른 당을 짝는다 (대통령 후보의
인격과 정치 신력이 비슷한 경우).
논문 설문지 12
1. 본인의 연령
72
20 대 30 대 40 대 50 대 60 대
2. 성별
남 여
3. 학력
고등학교 이하 고등학교 대학 다핵원
4. 고향
대한민국 대전
5. 처음에는 제 18 대 대선 때에 선택하려던 후보자가 사퇴를 했을 경우에 남은 후보자에 왜 투표를 했습니까? 아니면 투표를 전혀 하지 않았습니까?
만약 사퇴를 한다면 투표하지 않을 것임.
6. 후보자의 인격과 정치사상 중에 뭐가 더 중요하다고 생각하십니까? 왜 그렇습니까?
후보자의 정치사상도 무시할 수 없는 부분이지만 후보자의 인격이 더 중요하다고 생각함. 후보자의
정치사상에도 그 후보자의 인격이 기본적으로 반영되어 있다고 생각하기 때문임.
7. 본인의 생각에는 대중이 곧 할 정치적인 결정을 반박하면 대동령이 그 결정을 바꿔야 합니까? 아니면
그대로 해야 합니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
논리적인 설명을 통해 자신의 정치적 결정이 옳다는 것을 알려야함.
8. 대통령이 국민 부모라고 생각하려면 본인의 생각에는 그런 사고방식이 문제가 있습니까? 그렇다면
어떤 문제가 있습니까? 아니면 문제가 없습니까?
대통령을 국민의 부모라고 생각하는 것은 문제가 있음. 가족 관계에서는 냉징을 유지하기가 어렵기 때문임.
9. 본인의 생각에는 득표 차로 선출한 대통령을 그래도 의문할 수 있습니까? 왜 그렇게 생각하십니까?
일단 선출된 경우 의문이 들더라도 지켜보겠음.
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10. 갈등을 피하기 위해서 대통령의 아무 정치적인 결정을 받아들이는 것에 대해서 어떻게 생각하십니까?
갈등을 피하기 위한 수용이 바랑직하지 못함. 갈등 해소를 위해 먼저 노력해야 함.
11. 대통령이 자기 위해서 법을 바꾸는 상황을 어떻게 생각하십니까? 대통령이 자비심이 있다면 혹시 그런
행동을 참아야 한다고 생각하십니까?
대통령 자신이 자신을 위해 법을 바꾸는 것은 절대 일어나서는 안됨.
12. 어떤 대통령의 특성치들이 제일 중요하다고 생각하십니까?
인격과 지도력.
13. 대통령 선거 때 본인의 선택을 확정하는 측면이 대부분 무엇입니까? 자세히 답을 해주시기 바랍니다.
인격+지도력+비전 제시.
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