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VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY Eglė Petrauskaitė VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF REGIONAL STUDIES Eglė Petrauskaitė GENERATIONAL CLEAVAGE IN THE RESULTS OF THE 18TH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF SOUTH KOREA Master’s degree thesis East Asian Region Studies program, state code 621L20007 Supervisor: Ph.D. Aurelijus Zykas ________ ________ (Academic degree, name, surname) (signature) (date) Defended__________________ __________ ________ (Dean of the Faculty) (signature) (date) Kaunas, 2013 1 Contents Santrauka………………………………………………………………………………….……. I Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………….. 1 1. Descriptive Analysis of Statistical Data……………………………………………….. 6 1.1.Historic Overview…………………………………………………………............... 6 1.2.Analysis of Statistical Data in Korean Media………………………………………. 8 1.2.1 Voters’ Turnout……………………………………………………………….. 8 1.2.2 Regional tendencies…………………………………………………………... 9 1.2.3 Generational tendencies………………………………………………………. 12 1.3. Data Interpretation………………………………………………………………….. 14 2. Descriptive Analysis of Asian Values and Its Influence on Democracy…………………. 17 2.1. Asian Values Discourse……………………………………………………………. 17 2.2. Historical aspects of Confucianism in Korean Politics…………………………….. 18 2.3. Modern Korean Political Ideologies……………………………………………….. 21 2.3.1 Korean Political Philosophy………………………………………………….. 21 2.3.2 Variables of Korean Ideological Orientations……………………………….. 24 2.4 Asian Values and Their Influence on Democracy………………………………….. 26 2.4.1 Asian Social Values………………………………………………………….. 28 2.4.2 Asian Political Values………………………………………………………... 29 3. Qualitative Analysis of the In-depth Interview…………………………………………… 32 3.1 Course of the Interview……………………………………………………………... 32 3.2 Question Analysis…………………………………………………………………... 33 3.2.1 Value of a Moral State……………………………………………………….. 33 3.2.2 Values of Anti-pluralism & Social Harmony……………………………….. 34 3.2.3 Values of Family-State and Group Primacy…………………………………. 36 3.2.4 Leader Qualities and Decision Leverage…………………………………….. 38 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………….... 41 References………………………………………………………………………………………. 44 Appendices 2 Santrauka Šis magistro laipsnio baigiamasis darbas tiria kartų skirtį Pietų Korėjos respublikos visuomenėje pagal 2012 m. gruodžio mėnesį įvykusių aštuonioliktųjų prezidento rinkimų rezultatus. Pagrindinis dėmesys yra telkiamas į politinių ideologijų pokyčius ir kartų kaitą praėjusiame dešimtmetyje, kadangi elektorato politinių ideologijų pokytis išryškino pamažu atsirandančią kartų skirtį. Pasitelkiant aprašomąją pirminių bei antrinių šaltinių analizę bei giluminio interviu metodą atviro tipo klausimais siekamas darbo tikslas – išsiaiškinti ar Korėjos elektorate tikrai pasireiškia kartų skirties fenomenas ir jeigu taip, kokios yra jo priežastys. Aštuonioliktųjų prezidento rinkimų statistinė medžiaga ir Korėjos rinkėjų politinės orientacijos vystymasis yra pateikiamas aprašomosios analizės principu. Po šios analizės, giluminis interviu su korėjiečiais respondentais turi patvirtinti arba paneigti hipotezę, kad kartų skirtis yra svarbus kintamasis, lemiantis elektorato politinius sprendimus. Darbe yra suformuluotos trys skirtingos užduotys, kurias yra siekiama atlikti skirtingose darbo dalyse: Išanalizuoti regiono ir amžiaus kintamuosius gyventojų apklausose ir aštuonioliktųjų prezidento rinkimų rezultatuose; Nustatyti vertybines sistemas, kurios daro įtaką moderniosios Korėjos politinėms ideologijoms; Išskirti kartų kintamąjį ir išsiaiškinti kaip jis siejasi su prisirišumu prie konfucianizmo vertybių. Atlikus surinktų duomenų, literatūros ir interviu analizę pasitelkiant įvairius metodus, buvo prieita prie kelių pagrindinių išvadų, atsakant į darbe iškeltus uždavinius. Pagrindinės darbo išvados teigia, kad: kartų skirtis Korėjos elektorate egzistuoja; kartų skirtis yra svarbus kintamasis lemiantis Korėjos elektorato politinius sprendimus; kartų skirties atsiradimui įtaką padarė ne natūralus gyvenimo ciklas, o istorinės ir socialinės aplinkybės. 3 Introduction South Korea (hereinafter Korea) has elected its first female chief executive on 19 December, 2012. The next day almost all headlines in major Korean daily newspapers read “Park Geun-hye elected S. Korea’s first female president”1. Aside from the fact, that the landmark victory of the conservative from Saenuri Party creates a precedent in the Far East Region by Park Geun-hye being the first female leader of the state in modern times, the election results also revealed a mixed public sentiment. President Park Geun-hye is a daughter of the President Park Chung-hee, a military strongman who ruled Korea for 18 years after military coup until his assassination in 1979. The Park Chung-hee authoritarian rule is still rather controversial among Koreans. It is no doubt that Korea experienced a rapid economic growth during his rule, but Park Chung-hee also revised national constitution several times in order to stay in the office 2 . Due to such historical circumstances Park Geun-hye also has an image of “dictator’s daughter”, especially as she has been the acting first lady of the state in 1974-1979 after her mother’s assassination 3 . Despite the controversial image, however, Park Geun-hye has always had a number of loyal supporters, because throughout her political career she has built an image of a politician who “values principle and trust”4. Aside from the surface issues that display mixed public sentiment, the results of the 18th presidential election of 2012 illustrates the outcome of unique development of Korean democracy. Democratic regime in Korea is relatively new, as democratization reached Korea with the third wave of global democratization in the late 1980s (Bernhagen et al, 2009: 50). The first democratic election in Korea was held in 1987 after the collapse of Chun Doo-hwan authoritarian regime. Naturally, the long history of authoritarian rule left its own imprint on the Korean political culture. Although the country is developing towards a mature democratic regime, it has its own peculiarities that are not common among Western democracies. Korean political ideologies and the citizens’ awareness of the politics are shaped by a number of variables. Unique democratization process, historical circumstances, cultural values, 1 Top Headlines in major S. Korean papers, Yonhap News, 2012-12-20 2 South Korea – History, Mogabay.com 3 Profile of President Park Geun-hye, Gateway to Korea, Korea.net 4 (LEAD) (Election) Park Geun-hye wins presidential election, Yonhap News, 2012-12-20 4 current political and economic situation and the shifting demographics – all come into one to influence the voters’ decision during the General Assembly or the Presidential elections. Shifting demographics is one of the main concerns regarding the Korean political atmosphere. Korea is considered to be an aging society with over 12% of its population being 65 years old and older5. A country acquires a state of an aging society when citizens of 65 years and older make up more than 7% of the entire population (Heoyong 2007: 117). According to the United Nations report World Population Ageing 1950-2050 6 , by the year 2050 citizens above 65 years in Korea should significantly outnumber citizens younger than 14 years. (Heoyong, 2007: 118). Therefore, although the number of citizens who are eligible to vote has grown by 2.81 million in Korea since 20077, the steadily growing number of senior citizens is becoming an important determinant in Korean politics. Citizens above 60 years and older make up 20.8% of the Korean electorate8. Thus, their political and cultural values are at play during important elections as well. The 18th presidential election was of no exception as well. According to Yonhap News Agency, the solid support of baby boomers and senior citizens was the main factor that allowed Park Geun-hye to win the presidential race 9 . The latest Korean presidential election had an exceptionally high voter turnout – 75.8%. The general expert view is that high turnout signifies a higher number of young voters coming to vote. Since young generation in Korea normally vote for liberal candidates it would seem that the high voter turnout should have been in favour of the Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in. However, an evenly high turnout of the voters above 50 years of age determined Park Geun-hye’s victory10. Therefore, the result of the 18th presidential election in Korea clearly displays an evident generational cleavage which, according to the United Nations report, is only expected to widen. Due to different social and historical circumstances that different generations grew up within, their political ideologies exhibit a stark contrast. This contrast and the reasons for it provide a basis for further research, which could also be used later on as a pattern for prediction of future election results. 55The WORLD FACTOBOOK, Korea, South. Central Intelligence Agency 6 World Population Ageing: 1950-2050, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations 7 Ser M. Korea elects 1st woman president (2012), Joongang Ilbo, 2012-12-20 8 ibid 9 (Election) Winning baby boomer, senior votes secures victory for Park, Yonhap News, 2012-12-20 10 ibid 5 The 18th presidential election in Korea has been chosen as a basis for analysis in this thesis, because it is a major recent political event. The 19th election to the General Assembly11 was also held earlier in 2012, on April 11th, however, the results of the General Assembly election are not being taken into consideration in this thesis
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