Journal of Perinatology (2008) 28,89–90 r 2008 Nature Publishing Group All rights reserved. 0743-8346/08 $30 www.nature.com/jp SPECIAL FEATURE Global notes: how many babies were ever born in the world? What is the hope for future?

D Vidyasagar1,2

1Division of Neonatology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA and 2School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Chicago, IL, USA

Journal of Perinatology (2008) 28, 89–90; doi:10.1038/sj.jp.7211891; the stage of impending doom of the world.4 He predicted that the published online 13 December 2007 increasing population will lead to doomsday unless something is done about it. Countries around the world rapidly adopted extreme Population studies evoke interesting questions. The news of the methods to curb the population growth. World bodies encouraged arrival of the 300 millionth baby in the US in the month of and sometimes wielded undue pressure on developing countries to 1 October a year ago raised intriguing questions for many. Being adopt family planning with the dangling carrot of economic aids neonatologists, we are accustomed to welcome the newborns no as rewards. Some countries adopted Malthusian theory verbatim. matter how small; so we join the celebrations. Others, China’s policies of one child family are still in force. India also demographers in particular, have been thinking of some puzzling attempted to implement family planning with utmost vigor. questions such as the meaning of the population trends and the Overall, the population growth is curbed more in developed effects on national economies. Do we know how many babies have countries than the developing countries. been born in the world since the dawn of human existence? That This growth of population leads to the next intriguing question: one is, of course, an instinctive thought of a neonatologist and how many people can the earth sustain considering its limited leads to additional queries: when did the human species start its natural resources? It is estimated that the world cannot tolerate existence? Finally, what is the relevance of population studies to the more than 10–15 billion people, although some optimists believe progress of a nation or the human species? it can tolerate 100 billion people.5 In 1800s, Malthus concluded First, how many babies were ever born in the world? The that since population grows at geometric progression and food 2 answer can only be speculative. Assuming that the human species grows only at arithmetic progression, large populations will run originated around 50 000 years ago, as some anthropologists out of food leading to famines, calamities and extinction of human believe, and started with a population of two, they ventured to lives. Although his theories were based on the population growth calculate the growth of the population at different intervals of among the disadvantaged people living on British Isles, the concept human history. It is estimated that by the year 1 AD the world’s was caught up by many economists and policy makers who started population was 300 million (equivalent to the US population today). to adopt the recommended policies of restricting family size. These Then it took off. It did not reach the one billion mark until 1804. policies were further reinforced among many nations with the The global population has been rapidly increasing since the renewal of fears of increased population. beginning of last century. In 1922, it reached the 2 billion mark. It However, the proclamation of impending doom failed to surface. took 118 years to add one billion. One more billion was added in the Instead the population continued to grow reaching the 6 billion mark in next 37 years (1922–1959) reaching the 3 billion mark. Forty years 1999. It was then projected that it will take only another 14 years, until later in 1999, the world marked the birth of the 6 billionth baby. 2013, to add another billion to the population to reach the 7 billion With the population reaching the 6 billion mark, there was a mark. In the next 15 years, that is by 2028, we will reach 8 billion. commotion among the demographers and policy makers of the The failure of population explosion theory is said to be due to world regarding the aftermaths of population explosion. They the Green Revolution, which increased the food production far 3 invoked the Malthusian theory of imminent imbalance of people more efficiently and in larger proportion. In addition, rapid versus available food leading to human miseries and deaths. It was ‘technophysio evolution’6 extended the lifespan of humans. Today, Paul Ehrlich’s famous book Population Bomb in 1960 which set population growth may be considered as a basis for economic growth. In the US when the population reached 100 million in Correspondence: Dr D Vidyasagar, Division of Neonatology (MC 856), Department of 1915, it was heralded as a sign of rising economic and geopolitical Pediatrics, University of Illinois at Chicago, 840 S. Wood Street, Chicago, IL 60612, USA. 7 E-mail: [email protected] clout. When the population reached 200 million in 1967, Received 2 October 2007; accepted 23 October 2007; published online 13 December 2007 President Johnson made an exuberant speech, whereas the arrival Global notes D Vidyasagar 90 of the 300 millionth baby is greeted with muted exuberance lined different parts of the world: getting younger in the demographic with skepticism. The reason is that today’s population growth sense in China and India and aging in the industrialized countries is watched by different experts with variety of interests: the census (Greening in the East and graying of the West!). bureau, the demographers, the economists and the politicians. The graying of the population in some countries is worrisome to The pedagogic demographers analyzing the event conclude that national interests. Two countries Russia9 and Japan10 are at the the increase in population is mainly contributed by the immigrant crossroads of demographic depletion leading to the economic and population; therefore, the politicians begin to worry about the social consequences. In Russia, the demographic crisis is due to change in the demography of future voters in their respective increase in mortality over the past decade. The Russian population constituencies. The economists draw their sordid conclusions regarding is expected to decline by a startling 31 million by 2050 from the GNP/GDP as the population continues to grow year after year. As early current 143 million to 112 million! Japan, which had the world’s fifth as January 2006, it was predicted that the 300 millionth baby would be largest population in 1950 is also facing a population crisis. It is born to immigrant Hispanic parents in California. Demographers, expected to loose 28 million of its people by the year 2050 (From the noted a rapid increase in the Hispanic population in America, and that present 128 million to below 100 million). It is estimated to reach 65 the US was looking younger than other industrial nations who were million by the year 2100 if the current trends continue. Some rapidly aging and losing work force. strategists feel these demographic shifts may indeed affect national How do we count the census? The population clock keeps track of security issues and lead to geopolitical imbalances in the region. the population growth. It is not an exact science. The clock is set to The US population has also been graying during the last several show the sum of births and deaths every minute. It is calculated based decades. There are more aged and retiring people in the US than on the number of births per second minus the number of deaths those entering the workforce. This demographic trend will increase during that period. The balance is the gain in population. The 300 the dependency ratio in the country. That is, there will be more millionth person may not indeed be a baby in the US. It may be a retired people than earners. This altered dependency ratio has led person crossing the border into the US by air, sea or land. But assigning to the crisis of social security. How can we turn around this social the number to a baby is easier than tracking the crossings of the new security crisis? We need more people to work for us so that we can immigrants. It is more interesting to watch the clock ticking and to retire. We need more young people in the country. So we welcome keep guessing who will bear the badge of honor. The US population our 300 millionth baby and wait for another 25 years until he/she grew by 13% during 1990, five times than that of the European joins the work force and contributes to the social security. That is a countries. The problem is not the population itself but its distribution in cause for celebration. Still, it is prudent to pursue the policies of a country. The population density of the US is 80 per square mile, controlled population growth. In this context, it is of value to whereas it is 598 in Germany, 285 in France, 22 in Russia, 895 in reflect upon the policies adopted by countries such as China and India and 353 in China. Clearly, higher the density more the problem. India, the countries who top the world in population. The political controversy of rising population is based on the Now the answer to the first question raised in the opening politics of immigration; neither on population itself nor on the statement: how many people (children) were ever born on earth in the economics. The trends in population growth tell the story of people history of mankind? Using all the assumptions, the demographers in the nation and of mankind in the world. It reflects the story of calculate that until 2002, total of 106 456 367 669 were ever born on the civilization. Census taking is not merely collecting the this earth! That is, over 106 billion, give or take 5 to 10 billion. numbers; it is understanding the personality of the nation. About 100 years ago, the US population was 100 million (1915). It was largely white and rural. After 100 years the population has tripled. References The races and ethnicities have changed, the colors have changed 1 USA Today. October 13th, 2006. USA population hits milestone number. and the demographics of age have changed. The US has become 2 Carl Haub. Population reference; how many people have ever lived on earth. the home for almost all the nationals of the globe, a microcosm of www.prb.org/articles/2002. the globeFa united nations outside the United Nations 3 Mathunsion Population Theory. www.economyprofessor.com/economictheories/ Organization (UNO). The major contribution comes from large Mathunsion-population-theory. 4 Ehrlich Paul R. The Population Bomb 1971. Ballantine Books: New York. population of immigrants, as highlighted during the recent 5 Van Den B, Jeroen CJM, Rietveld P. Reconsidering the limits to world population: meta- political debates. Hispanics account for half the population growth. analysis and meta-prediction. http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-194132/ Accordingly, the 300 millionth baby was projected to be born to Reconsidering-the-limits-to-world.html. Hispanic immigrant parents living near Los Angeles.8 And it was as 6 Fogel RW, Costa DL. A theory of technophysio evolution with some implications for forecasting close to the target as the landing of the shuttle on the moon. population, health care costs, and pension costs. Demography 1997; 34: 49–66. 7 USA Today, October 16, 2006. The question arises: how will the 300 millionth baby change 8 Chicago Tribune. Count down to baby 300th Million. January 18, 2006. our world in the twenty-first century? There is a lot of speculation. 9 Boston Globe. Population decline. July 16, 2006. In this context, it is important to watch how we are aging in 10 Smil Vaclav. http://japanfocusorg/products/details/2411.

Journal of Perinatology