Contents

Acknowledgements ix Notes on the Contributors x List of Boxes, Figures and Tables xiii

1 Britain Beyond Blair – Party Politics and Leadership Succession 1 Patrick Dunleavy, Richard Heffernan, Philip Cowley and Colin Hay Party system change 2 Leadership succession and political celebrity 7 Economic prosperity and welfare state modernisation 13 Conclusion 15

2 The Blair Style of Central Government 17 Richard Heffernan Government at the centre 20 The prime minister and the core executive 22 Blair’s prime ministerial authority 24 The limits to prime ministerial authority 27 The Tony Blair–Gordon Brown axis, 1997–2005 32 Conclusion 34

3 Making Parliament Matter? 36 Philip Cowley Parliament in perspective 36 The constituency face 38 Voting in the House of Commons 41 Commons modernisation 45 The House of Lords 49 Conclusion 54

4 Political Parties and Party Systems 56 Sarah Childs Britain’s party systems 57 The main five parties 61

v vi Contents

Cartel or cadre? 68 Choosing more diverse parliamentary candidates 73 Conclusion 75

5 Elections and Voting 77 John Bartle and Samantha Laycock The 2005 election results 78 Explanations of voting 80 Sociological and social-psychological evidence from 2005 81 Issue-voting evidence from 2005 84 From modest plurality to comfortable majority 89 Turnout 91 What lies ahead? 93

6 Political Participation beyond the Electoral Arena 98 William Maloney Political participation and patterns of involvement 100 Groups and the policy-making process 101 ‘New’ and ‘newer’ types of political participation 106 Social capital 112 Conclusion: groups, participation and democracy 115

7 The Half-hearted Constitutional Revolution 117 Matthew Flinders New Labour and the constitution 120 Principled progress and retrospective reasoning 2003–05 123 Common themes 2001–05 129 The Westminster model and multilevel governance 131 Conclusion: the constitution and British democracy 135

8 Devolution and the Lopsided State 138 Charlie Jeffery Recent developments in the four nations 140 What the public thinks 152 Devolution and policy variation 153 Managing UK–devolved relations 156 Conclusion 157

9 Britain, Europe and the World 159 Michael Smith Europe in British government and politics 160 British policy making 162 Contents vii

Britain in the European Union 164 Britain, Europe and the world 169 Conclusion: a complex imbalance? 173

10 Security Policy in an Insecure World 174 Michael Cox and Tim Oliver Britain and 9/11 175 Britain and the Iraq war 178 Britain between the US and Europe 184 The Blair and Bush doctrines 188 Conclusion 191

11 The Politics of Multicultural Britain 193 Gillian Peele A diverse society 194 The multiculturalism debate 198 New Labour and multiculturalism 204 Minority groups and the political process 207 The politics of extremism 209 Conclusion 210

12 The State and Civil Liberties in the Post-9/11 World 212 Michael Saward Policies in question 214 Political rhetoric and underlying ideals 218 Security and protection: two competing ideas of democracy 227 Conclusion 229

13 The News Media and the Public Relations State 231 Dominic Wring Advertising and opinion research 232 Public relations: spin and its discontents 233 Reforming the public relations state: the Phillis Report 2004 237 The propaganda war: selling the invasion of Iraq 240 Power without responsibility? 246 Conclusion 249

14 Managing Economic Interdependence: The Political Economy of New Labour 251 Colin Hay The economic record 252 The distinctiveness of New Labour’s political economy 256 viii Contents

The context reassessed: negotiating globalisation 261 Tensions, contradictions and future prospects 267 Conclusion 271

15 Modernising the Public Services 272 Stephen Driver Labour, social democracy and public services 272 New Labour in power: ‘modernising’ public services 273 Diversity, choice and public-sector provision 290 Conclusion: ‘modernisation’ and the social-democratic state 292

16 British Politics after Blair 295 Andrew Gamble The Thatcher legacy in British politics 296 The Blair government 299 Ideological alternatives 303 Blairism without Blair 308 Conclusion 312

17 The Westminster Model and the Distinctiveness of British Politics 315 Patrick Dunleavy The Westminster model under pressure 316 The reformist critique – normalising British politics 328 The drift of power from the UK state 336 Conclusions 340

Further Reading 342 Bibliography 349 Index 371 Chapter 1 Britain Beyond Blair – Party Politics and Leadership Succession

PATRICK DUNLEAVY, RICHARD HEFFERNAN, PHILIP COWLEY and COLIN HAY

In December 2005 the Conservatives’ share of the general election vote intention in the MORI monthly poll touched 40 per cent for almost the first time since the autumn of 1992. Between 1992 and 2005, the party’s score had typically languished in the range from 31 to 34 per cent and it had suffered three consecutive general election defeats with similar shares of the vote (with its share in 2005 up just 0.6 per cent on that in 2001). Put another way, the Conservatives for more than twelve years performed at a full ten percentage points less than their average general election score for the whole of the twentieth century, which was 44 per cent. Their apparent revival in December 2005 also saw them achieve a lead of over Labour (of 6 per cent) for almost the first time since 1992. The catalyst was, of course, the election of the previously little-known David Cameron as the new Conservative leader, triggering a ‘honeymoon’ period in public opinion. Famously such blips greeting new leaders tend to be evanescent, so in normal times not too much could be read into it. But the circumstances were far from normal. For the first time since an aged Winston Churchill (eventually) bowed out of office to give the premiership to a long-frustrated Anthony Eden in 1955, the governing party was trying to secure the orderly transfer of power by agreement from an incumbent prime minister – this time Tony Blair giving way to a clear (but equally long-frustrated) heir apparent, Gordon Brown. The key difference lay in the fact that just before the 2005 general election Tony Blair had pre-announced his intention to ‘serve a full third term’, but not to stand again as prime minister at the succeeding general elec- tion, expected in 2009–10. This approach had never before been attempted in British politics. That Labour should go with it spoke volumes for its confidence that, since 1997, it had somehow become the ‘natural’ party of government. Blair’s outstanding record in winning three successive general elections was matched by his extraordinary

1 2 Developments in British Politics 8 significance for Labour as a party and as an electoral force. Assuming a 2009 election, Blair will have presided over a more than doubling of his party’s total experience of office with a workable parliamentary major- ity. His going is widely anticipated for either May 2007 (his ten-year anniversary in power) or at most a year later in 2008 (Brown’s last chance to acquire a record of his own as prime minister before a 2009 election). Inevitably it seems to signal a watershed in British politics, given extra salience by a possible Conservative revival. We discuss three key aspects – the implications for party system change, the contemporary role of leaders in politics, and the significance of the next few years for Britain’s economic and social trajectory.

Party system change

Political scientists who pored over the 1992 results before the Conservatives’ autumn collapse in poll ratings following Black Wednesday were united in misconstruing the message. The initial academic reaction was to construe the Conservative’s fourth consecutive victory as a sign of the party’s continuing hegemony. Anthony King wrote that the UK had ‘one major party, the Conservatives, one minor party, Labour, and one peripheral party, the Liberal Democrats’ (King 1993, 224). The main British election study published its analysis of the outcomes as Labour’s Last Chance? (Heath et al. 1994). A series of other publications and acres of journalistic comment argued that Britain had effectively become a one- party state, one in which the Conservatives looked set for indefinite rule. There may seem far fewer dangers of similarly misconstruing Labour’s success in winning most seats in the 2005 election, since the party suffered a loss of over 6 per cent of its previous vote and its majority fell from over 160 to a more assailable 66. Labour also regained power with the lowest share of the vote (and of the entire electorate) ever for a government with a secure Commons majority. Following the Conservatives’ static vote share and Michael Howard’s immediate resignation as leader, there seemed little prospect, either, of analysts overstating that party’s future chances. The number of Conservative MPs increased by a fifth, the party won seats in all three countries of Great Britain for the first time since 1997 and the Tories almost entirely repulsed the expected assault on their seats from the Liberal Democrats. But Howard in fact got fewer seats than Michael Foot (who led Labour to spectacular defeat in 1983). Even in key seats where the Conservatives made gains against Labour this was mostly because the government’s support drifted to other parties rather than because the Tory vote increased much. In parts of the country, the party’s votes actually fell (Cowley and Green 2005). And in 2005 the Introduction 3

Conservatives achieved their third-worst seats and votes outcomes for a century, beaten only by 2001 and 1997. But perhaps the main dimension of uncertainty in assessing British party politics no longer lies in the ancient sport of forecasting the ‘swing of the pendulum’ between the top two contenders, so much as in working out the significance of different signals sent by voters in differ- ent kinds of contexts. Figure 1.1 shows four snapshots of different party systems, for England outside London, and then for London, Scotland and Wales. The horizontal axis of the graphs shows each party’s vote share at the 2005 general election, and the vertical axis shows their vote share at the last proportional representation (PR) elec- tion – which is the 2004 European Parliament election in England, the 2004 London Assembly elections, and the 2003 elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh National Assembly. (In the case of the last three systems, where voters have two votes under the Additional Member System, we take the parties’ shares of the second or ‘list’ vote). For each party the plot shows the precise combination of vote shares in the two elections, the box around the data indicating the approximate size of the party’s seat share. For example, Figure 1.1a shows that Labour got 30 per cent of the vote in the general election in England outside London, but only 20 per cent in the European election. Labour won 53 per cent of all English MPs in 2005, but only 22 per cent of the possible MEPs in 2004 – hence its seats box is rectangular with a long horizontal axis. By contrast, the Conservatives did better in terms of getting MEPs elected than in terms of getting MPs elected, so that their box is long in a vertical dimension. The main point of Figure 1.1 is to show that the signals from voters in the two most recent contests are significantly different and that the results in terms of seats vary sharply as well. In all four graphs the top two parties do better in the general election than in the PR election, where voters give more backing to third, fourth, and fifth parties who also go on to win more seats. The ‘effective number of parties’ for the PR elections here lies between 5.3 and 6.0 parties in terms of vote shares, but for the general election the variation is only from 2.7 to 3.6 effective parties. How should we interpret these divergent signals of party perform- ance? There is no consensus amongst political scientists, nor between the four editors of this book. For some scholars the general election results are clearly the more important or ‘authoritative’ ones, for three reasons:

• General elections involve the issues that most voters rate as the most important. Voters at this time are choosing between parties to help set 4 Developments in British Politics 8

Figure 1.1 The main parties’ performance in votes and seats at the 2005 general election and the most recent proportional representation election, in Great Britain

(a) England outside London (b) London

30 30 Con ● Con ● 25 25 ●

● Lab 20 20 UKIP Lib ● Lab ● Dem 15 15 ● Lib Dem 10 10 ●● Green Green

% votes in 2004 Euro election Euro 2004 in votes % UKIP 5 ● ᭺ 5 ᭺ BNP BNP % votes in 2004 London Assembly election Assembly London 2004 in votes % 0 0 010203040 010203040 % votes in 2005 general election % votes in 2005 general election

(c) Scotland (d) Wales

30 ● 40 ● 35 25

SNP Lab 30 Lab 20 ● 25

15 ● Plaid Con 20 ● ● ● Lib Con Dem 15 10 ● Lib Dem ●●Green 10 5 SSP 5 ᭺Green BNP 0 ᭺ % votes in 2004 Scottish Parliament election Parliament Scottish 2004 in votes % 0 010203040 010203040

% votes in 2005 general election election Assembly National Welsh 2003 in votes % % votes in 2005 general election

● Votes won by a party winning seats at one or both elections ᭺ Votes won by a party winning no seats Seats share at both elections

the big policy directions, and in the UK’s system national politics remain dominant. So general elections show voters’ most salient or ‘primary’ choices. In the other elections, covering ‘secondary’ issues and less important centres of power, voters might be more prone to indulge in ‘luxury’ choices, like protest voting or vote splitting. Introduction 5

• More people turn out to vote for MPs than for the PR elections, both confirming the first point above and meaning that the general election signals also draw on a much broader and more representative spec- trum of voters’ views. •Parliamentary elections decide the overall constitutional direction – as witnessed by the fact that all the PR elections have come into existence since 1999 under Labour. Hence what happens in Westminster is key for future directions. How the top two parties see their interests in these elections will determine what if anything happens to move the UK more decisively towards multiparty politics.

Other scholars take a different view, arguing that:

•Voters are constrained solely by the disproportional plurality-rule voting system used in Westminster elections to keep supporting the top two parties, when in fact the evidence shows that freed from constraint by PR systems they want to support a much broader range of parties. Hence it is Westminster voting that is ‘inauthentic’ or artificial, as people trying to not ‘waste their vote’ have to play games to get their message across to politicians. • The turnout gap between general and PR elections has lessened sharply in recent years because of falling turnout at Westminster elec- tions. The difference in Scotland was not very large between 2003 (49 per cent) and 2005 (61 per cent), while in Wales it was 38 to 62 per cent; in England 39 to 61 per cent; and in London 36 to 58 per cent. • The trend to more fragmented voting in the UK is a long-run one. The first big growth in third- and fourth-party support was in the mid 1970s, and has been broadly sustained ever since. A new growth of fourth and fifth parties has occurred since the ‘coexistence’ of PR and non-PR elections began in 1999. In 2005 there were more candidates from and votes for fourth and fifth parties in England than ever before. It seems unlikely that this trend will go into reverse. And at some point one of the top two parties will be forced by the pressure from voters alone to revise their self-interested support for maintaining the consti- tutional status quo.

One future possibility, much discussed in the past, but actually occurring very rarely in practice since 1945, is a ‘hung Parliament’ where no party at Westminster has an overall majority. In such a situation one option is a minority government, like those run by Labour from February to October 1974 and again from 1977 to 1979. The alternative is a coalition between two (or more) parties. A Lib–Lab government has run Scotland continu- ously since 1999. A shorter-term Lib–Lab administration ran Wales from 6 Developments in British Politics 8

2000 to 2003. Less visible but equally important multiparty coalitions in the Greater London Assembly have sustained Ken Livingstone as Mayor of London since 2000. And Lib–Con and Lib–Lab coalitions run many councils with ‘no overall control’. Previously anathema to the top two parties, a coalition government outcome might be more likely in 2009–10 than before for three reasons. First, academic analysis shows that although Labour was badly weak- ened in 2005 the Conservatives still have a mountain to climb if they are to win outright in 2009–10. Assuming a uniform swing at the next elec- tion, to win most MPs (and hence have the right to try and form a govern- ment) the Conservatives need a swing of 4.8 per cent and a poll lead over Labour of 7.1 per cent. To win a bare overall majority and govern alone they need a swing of between 8 and 9 per cent. The last times a swing of that magnitude occurred to change the incumbent administration were in 1945 and 1997. Forthcoming boundary changes (due to be implemented before 2009) will help by reducing the number of low-population inner-city seats held by Labour, thereby redistributing representation to the suburbs and ex-urban areas where the Tories win more. But this will scarcely get them to the foothills of the mountain they must successfully negotiate. To win an outright majority they will need to beat Labour very substantially in vote share. Second, the parties as well as the analysts have done the sums and the election arithmetic already indicates that the chances of a 2009–10 elec- tion producing a ‘hung Parliament’ are considerably greater than was possible at any post-war general election (Curtice et al. 2005). This recognition is likely to produce moves by both Labour and the Conservatives to court Liberal Democrat voters in order to try and attract their second preferences. The Tories will hope that Liberal Democrat voters will back them on a ‘time for a change’ basis in Labour vs Conservative marginals. One of the first acts of the new Conservative leader, David Cameron, was to appeal for Liberal Democrats to join him, proclaiming his ‘liberal Conservative’ credentials. Labour may want to repeat the offerings on constitutional reform which on some accounts played a large part in securing them Liberal Democrat support in 1997 and thus unified the previously divided ‘opposition’ votes to the Conservatives. Should Labour’s electoral ratings further falter then an opening to the Liberal Democrats could look the more attractive to Gordon Brown the closer a crunch general election looms. Third, coalitions or cross-party agreements might have been moved up the list of possibilities through the extensive recent experience of coali- tions in the UK outside Westminster. Such two-party coalition adminis- trations have been reasonably harmonious and generally either as effective or more effective than single-party control. The dawning of a Introduction 7 more ‘managerialist’ politics also helps. With Cameron already proclaiming his commitment to ‘big tent’ politics this may be a dimension of British politics where the established governing ‘ethos’ of single-party control can begin to change.

Leadership succession and political celebrity

The other great imponderable of modern politics, and the focus of an enormous amount of attention in the 2004–05 period, has been the role of political leadership in the three biggest parties. We have already noted Blair’s October 2004 decision to pre-announce that the 2005 election would be his last as premier. The move, while temporarily preventing fevered speculation about the likelihood of Blair’s replacement by Gordon Brown, nevertheless made Brown’s succession inevitable, prompting post-election battles at the top and amongst different Labour factions in parliament over both the succession process and its precise timing. Blair’s decision to quit seemed for some to be underlined by the extent to which his leadership and the baggage of the Iraq war visibly damaged his party’s support in the campaign. After careful modelling to control for all other factors, analysis shows ‘robust leadership effects … the Prime Minister was clearly a source of weakness for Labour’ (Evans and Andersen 2005, 178). Blair’s popularity subsequently went on a roller-coaster ride, first dipping in the election aftermath as vocal critics demanded that he go soon. It then bounced back after London’s bid to host the 2012 Olympics was successful and the prime minister was seen to give sure-footed leadership in the aftermath of the July 7 terrorist bombings in London. Blair’s poll ratings then dipped again as he first picked and then lost a battle with his own parliamentary party over a proposal to hold terror suspects for 90 days without charge or trial and was then seen to yield significant ground on Britain’s rebate in the nego- tiations on the EU budget. Meanwhile the Conservatives reached their third leader in two years. Michael Howard assumed the leadership in December 2003 without any rivals – he was the only candidate when Tory MPs pushed out Iain Duncan Smith in a relatively bloodless coup. Howard then resigned the day after the general election in May 2005 to inaugurate a Tory leader- ship contest that ran until December, creating a prolonged power vacuum that seemed at first to serve only to signal to voters a collapse of the Conservatives’ efficacy but which in reality provided the party with considerable breathing space which allowed Tory MPs and the party membership to make a careful choice of their new leader. The leadership contest itself fluctuated between initial elitist attempts to get a vote solely 8 Developments in British Politics 8 of Conservative MPs and an open (and in the end successful) democratic election of David Cameron by a clear two thirds of party members. The legitimacy boost this gave him, perhaps enhanced by the previous hiatus, then created the Tory bounce with which we started this chapter. The Liberal Democrats entered the 2005 election under Charles Kennedy and achieved their highest number of MPs since the 1920s and their highest share of the vote since 1983. Most commentators judged this performance encouraging but unspectacular, and many Liberal Democrats, faced with an underperforming government and an unpopu- lar primary opposition, considered it a lost opportunity. Immediately after the election under the party’s rules there was an automatic re-elec- tion process for the leader. Kennedy was the only candidate and secured an apparently untroubled re-endorsement – only for serious worries about his leadership to re-emerge forcefully amongst his MPs (including his then deputy leader, Menzies Campbell) in late 2005 following the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader. As the Liberal Democrats’ parliamentary presence has increased so tensions between the party’s more left-leaning wing (led by Simon Hughes) and its more centre-right elements (led by Mark Oaten and perhaps Vincent Cable) have grown. Kennedy’s efforts to tread a middle line, and his reduced visibility in the media, pleased no one in these push–pull conflicts (Rawnsley 2005). But privately many senior Liberal Democrat MPs were also worried about the extent of Kennedy’s drinking, which they felt was seriously impeding his leadership. In January 2006, Kennedy was forced to make a statement in which he accepted that he had been struggling with a drink problem. He claimed that it was now ‘essentially resolved’ and called for a fresh leadership contest – in which he intended to stand – in order to re-legitimise his leadership. Two days later, however, and faced with the extent of opposition from senior members of his parlia- mentary party, he accepted that his position had become untenable, and stood down with immediate effect. On 2 March 2006 Menzies Campbell was elected as the party’s new leader. All this tri-party turmoil has focused attention on some longer- running academic debates about the role of political leadership in contemporary politics. For parties, securing the right person at the top is far more crucial than for a corporation. It is in fact more akin to a firm making critical ‘brand development’ decisions. The personal qualities of the party leader serve to embody in a walking, talking and changing pres- ence the whole set of values, priorities and policies that the party stands for. The leader is someone who can (if successful) interpret policies in ways that become accessible to the enormous range of voters. This poten- tial leadership effect applies across the board of issue and policy posi- tions. And nowadays it is the focus of a whole smorgasbord of specialists’ Introduction 9 efforts. These are the special advisors, spin doctors, policy wonks, speech writers, public relations gurus, advertisers, opinion pollsters and morale boosters and protectors with which modern party leaders now surround themselves. The likelihood of a Gordon Brown vs David Cameron vs Menzies Campbell contest by 2009 will shed light again on the three-dimensional triangle of leadership qualities demanded of modern leaders:

Accessibility Leaders must be telegenic, up-to-date in the way they communicate, and well-balanced and appealing in their personality and image. Contemporary voters seem to be searching for (or are at least increasingly encouraged to respond on the basis that they seek) a kind of political celebrity, someone whom they are comfortable to say to others that they support. Anthropologists speculate that the modern rise of a cult of ‘celebrities’ has deep roots in the loss of traditional tribal and community hierarchies, in which past centuries of humanity mostly grounded their sense of personal identity. A partial, fluctuating replace- ment is the modern ‘star system’ in which millions of people closely follow, identify with and discuss endlessly the fortunes of celebrities whom they have never met, allowing these new authority figures to influ- ence how they dress, talk or have their hair done. Nowadays the leaders of the main political parties have to fit into this wider system if their fortunes are to prosper, as Tony Blair always pre-eminently understood.

Trust Citizens need to believe that what their political leaders say is true. Much of modern governance relies on ‘nodality’, the willingness of citizens and businesses to tell government things for free and also to pay special attention to the messages that government broadcasts back (Hood 1983). Without nodality and legitimacy, the quasi-voluntary compliance on which democratic governments inherently rely will begin to collapse. So anything that undercuts nodality has rapid and expensive impacts on government’s ability to get things done. Labour’s ruthless spinning momentum built up cumulatively from 1997 to the Iraq war in 2003. This played some considerable role in voters’ consequent loss in confidence in this aspect of Blair’s leadership, something which in turn played a large role in preventing him being the electoral asset in 2005 that he had been in 1997 and 2001. The consequences of overdoing govern- ment hype and spin did not stop with the leader alone. For instance, in late 2005 the government had to announce that the Office of National Statistics (ONS) would be established as a parliamentary agency completely outside the scope of ministerial control. This followed opin- ion polls showing that 64 per cent of citizens had no or poor confidence in the information that ONS was issuing. 10 Developments in British Politics 8

Strength The pervasive anxiety of citizens in modern civilisation is that it is now too complex (and perhaps the world too interconnected) for government to make a difference. To reassure the public that someone is ‘running the show’ and that ‘the show is being run well’, leaders have somehow to demonstrate their capability and experience to voters, espe- cially their likely success in coping with crises and making difficult deci- sions. This is a very difficult trick for any opposition leader to accomplish. But Tony Blair did it in the mid 1990s by confronting and beating down established interests in his own party over Clause 4, Labour’s legacy commitment to nationalising industries. Little wonder that Conservatives around Cameron anxious to emulate Blair are still searching for some analogous ‘Clause 4 moment’ that would allow their leader to accomplish the same trick.

Brown’s leadership potential looks unchallengeable on at least one of the above criteria, namely strength and experience. Perhaps he could rate high also on the trust criterion, where his image of focusing on Britain first and foremost (especially in Europe) evokes positive reactions. His apparent success in running the national economy without overt recess- ions for eight, perhaps ten, years will also count with so-called ‘pocket book’ voters, concerned with economic stability and success (see below). But Brown looks highly vulnerable on the first criterion above, namely accessibility. He tends to come across as unapproachable or unsympa- thetic to many voters, and to gabble his speeches in a remorselessly intell- ectual way, perhaps even seeming dogmatic or overbearing in his approach. Brown’s future also still lies outside his own control, with no agreed date for Blair to step down and Blairite acolytes constantly floating stories in the press about the prime minister’s own indispensability. Brown’s rumoured ‘succession plan’ is supposedly being prepared under the supervision of Wilf Stevenson and the highly Brownite think tank, the Smith Institute. Rumours suggest that this plan apparently lays a great deal of emphasis upon Brown making rapid and far-reaching changes in the image and structure of government as soon as he becomes premier, imitating his speedy initial decision as Chancellor to grant monetary policy independence to the Bank of England. A ‘big bang’ start to Brown’s premiership would be designed to establish that he is prime minister in his own right, and not just a long-serving second-in-command whose persistence has at last paid off. The elements of such a package are still vague. But some leaks suggest it will include a new constitutional settlement with more powers for devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and London; a new ‘concordat’ with local government (but in exchange for the abolition of two-tier local governments in county Introduction 11 areas); and a national government focusing much more single-mindedly on just national, European and wider international issues instead of trying to micro-manage the wider welfare state as Blair and before him the Conservatives have both done. Brown’s internal position within Labour’s ranks also looks unchall- engeable now, but partly because Blair’s now numerous critics have vested their hopes in Brown, imagining that he will be rather more tradi- tional social democratic in character. The Blair critics also assume that Brown will be rather less trans-Atlantic and pro United States in his foreign policy choices. Neither stance in fact seems guaranteed. Brown has publicly declared that any government he leads will be Blairite, if not (as Blair would wish it) ‘unremittingly New Labour’. And Brown, not Blair, was the architect and custodian of New Labour’s fiscal and mone- tary prudence. He has not only backed, but been a principal advocate of, Labour’s adoption and advocacy of enterprise, competition, flexible labour markets, public–private partnerships and PFI projects, financial incentives and strict fiscal discipline. As prime minister Brown is likely to retain tight control over the Treasury, appointing a favoured supporter as his successor as chancellor. Brown’s political sensitivities have also always been more trans-Atlantic than European and he is less likely than Blair before him to be able to build a bridge between Europe and the US. Brown has spent his annual summer holidays in the United States for many years, has good connections with United States political elites, and may well disappoint the hopes of left-Labour MPs on this as on other dimensions. If these expectations are borne out, it remains to be seen how long Labour’s likely honeymoon period with Brown will last. Finally, Brown’s future with Labour and with voters will also depend to some considerable degree on his deputy leader and Cabinet. Here he may find forces to balance out the youth–age problem he now has with Cameron. Labour’s key ‘next-generation’ politicians seem likely to have quite similar personalities and track records to Cameron. David Miliband moved from policy advisor in 10 Downing Street to a seat in Parliament, rapid promotion to Cabinet minister, and towards certain prominence under Gordon Brown. Meanwhile Brown’s own former advisors Ed Balls and Ed Miliband both began serving out ‘apprentice- ship norm’ periods as new MPs in 2005, before ministerial office beckons in a future Brown administration. Cameron’s leadership potential is founded on almost the opposite foundations to Brown’s, very high on accessibility and quite strong (initially) on trust, but very weak on experience. When Michael Howard decided to stay on as Tory leader throughout 2005 he was able to propel the little-known Cameron (and his close lieutenant, George Osborne, now Shadow Chancellor) into the Conservative front rank in the post-election 12 Developments in British Politics 8

Shadow Cabinet reshuffle and give them greater exposure. Nonetheless, Cameron’s initial candidacy for the leadership was widely seen in the media as a case of him positioning himself within the party for a future run at the leadership, five or ten years hence, rather than as a serious immediate bid. But his leadership hopes were transformed in the space of a week by his well-received campaign launch and party conference speech, and by the faltering campaign of the hot favourite, David Davis. Cameron soon eclipsed Ken Clarke as the favourite candidate of many pragmatic, more left-leaning Tory MPs, whilst Davis’ campaign was derailed by a poorer performance than his rivals at a party conference ‘beauty contest’. The conventional wisdom admits that Cameron, like Blair before him, may be young, good on TV, vigorous, and keen to reform his party. But as such a new MP, with only four years in Parliament and no significant experience in a frontbench role before becoming leader, Cameron is also often presented as much more of a gamble for the Conservatives than Blair was for Labour in 1994. When they elected Iain Duncan Smith as leader in 2001 over Ken Clarke, the Tory membership opted for a candi- date with no strong media qualities or parliamentary presence. By choos- ing David Cameron in late 2005 the Conservative members (albeit corralled by an enthusiastic news media) signalled a re-embracing of political efficacy, with add-ons. Cameron’s actual experience of govern- ment in action comes from a spell as a special advisor to Conservative ministers in the mid 1990s. And his period of exile outside Parliament after 1997 before finding a seat was spent as the director of a public rela- tions company. As Alastair Campbell has pointed out, the Conservatives, far from renouncing spin as they used to claim, seem instead to have elected a professional ‘spinmeister’ as their leader. Cameron and his supporters are determined to travel light in policy terms. They want to give every public impression of their intention to move the Conservative party firmly to the centre, without alienating its core traditional constituency. In the short term this involves taking the fight to Blair (but particularly to Brown), avoiding having a series of detailed policies, and instead trying to redefine the image of the Conservatives – the ‘brand’. This involves advocating a general disposi- tion and putting forward a broad set of beliefs. It may well also involve confronting an old guard within the party in a style very reminiscent of the early days of the Blair leadership – confrontations that the leadership knows it can win and has the resolve to do so. As with Blair, Cameron might find that only by inflating the status of intra-party opponents can Tory modernisers then claim credit for having ousted them. Moreover, the new group in control knows that by winning it can demonstrate that the party has changed. There may be no single ‘Clause 4 moment’ Introduction 13

(indeed, there was not really ever just one such moment in the creation of New Labour), but there will be several high-profile announcements in which the leadership picks a fight with its own party. Cameron’s early commitments on increasing the number of women candidates and reforming the way that the party makes policy (in which the party chair- man implicitly accused some of the party’s own members of being ‘fanat- ics’) were early signs of this tactic. Others seem sure to follow. This approach may sound superficial or contrived. But it also speaks to the heart of a central paradox of leadership – that an influential leader cannot be too far ahead of his/her desired followers, nor be too distinct- ive, nor so committed to a particular set of policies as to be unable to adapt to changing conditions. The leader’s job instead is to estimate what is going to happen and then to ‘surf’ the ever-shifting moods of public opinion successfully enough to come out just ahead of their rivals and reach office. Here alone they acquire some limited capacity to fix or rede- fine outcomes and so to partly determine overall results.

Economic prosperity and welfare state modernisation

The challenge for the Conservatives in search of an outright majority is to find some reason why the electorate might decisively reject Labour and embrace them instead. After all, the trigger factor that brought the Tories’ poll support down so sharply in autumn 1992 and created Labour’s opportunity to replace them was the mismanagement of a massive monetary crisis that resulted in Britain being forced to leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and sent interest rates temporarily spiralling to as high as 15 per cent. But assuming that the enormously dislocating presence of the Iraq war in British politics has disappeared by 2009–10, and has not been replaced by any comparable source of problems (like internal terrorism), the political landscape does not contain any obvious bear traps for Labour of a similar size and scale. Instead political debate is concentrated on relatively gradualist or managerialist debates about the best routes to achieving more economic prosperity and delivering modernised public services. The issues here are important ones but not easy ones on which any party in opposition can make much of an impression. Take the issue of economic growth levels, which in 2005 Gordon Brown first forecast at 3.0 to 3.5 per cent but which actually turned out to be at only half these levels at 1.75 per cent. To see how much this matters it may help to consider the magic formula of ‘70 divided by the growth rate’, which tells you how long it will take for a country’s national income to double. In the modern world, for instance, China is achieving year-on-year growth rates of 8 per cent, and 14 Developments in British Politics 8 so its national income is doubling every nine years. If Gordon Brown’s initial forecast had come out right then UK national income would have been doubling every 20 years. But with the downgraded growth rate for 2005 it would take 40 years to achieve the same improvement in living standards. Critics of Labour’s record argue that since 1992 Britain’s good head- line economic performance has been driven by consumer demand. Britain has enjoyed a long consumption boom lasting for over a decade. It was fuelled first by rising stock market prices and, more recently, by rising house prices. Both served to boost consumption through the release of equity. Yet personal debts also rose, to historically unprece- dented levels. Critics argue that the fragility of this approach could be exposed as never before as house prices stabilise and inflationary press- ures (associated principally with oil prices) have started to build within the economy. If consumer spending carries on falling or stagnates, the peculiar growth dynamic of the British economy might unravel very rapidly and in a self-reinforcing spiral. If rising oil prices push up infla- tion then interest rate rises will be needed to control inflation. This change could only further depress the housing market, perhaps leading to negative equity, property repossessions, more declines in consumer demand and a regrowth of unemployment – previously at historically low levels under Labour. Externally the euro and the dollar might rise against sterling on the foreign exchanges, increasing the cost of imports and injecting further inflationary pressures into the economy. Meanwhile the Chancellor has also borrowed heavily to finance a substantial public deficit produced by Labour’s push to improve stan- dards in health care, education and social security in old age towards more European levels of provision. Under its own economic ‘golden rule’ the Chancellor could thus be forced into putting up widely paid and highly visible taxes, as opposed to his previous alleged strategy of increasing only ‘stealth taxes’. In such a context, critics argue that Gordon Brown’s previous reputation for fiscal and monetary prudence could evaporate rapidly. Government defenders and Brownites argue by contrast that the 2005 downrating of growth is an isolated blip in very difficult world condi- tions, conditions that in earlier times might have been expected to produce a real recession rather than just a growth slowdown. Brown’s achievement in their view has been to preside over eight years of contin- uous growth, following on from two earlier years under the Major government, to create an unprecedented decade with no actual reces- sions. Perhaps more worrying for Labour will be the public reaction to the outcomes of the government’s incessant drives to improve the performance Introduction 15 of the UK’s welfare state. The underlying problem here is a kind of public opinion ambivalence that demands European levels of welfare state provision and government-financed infrastructures (for instance, in transport) while yet believing that somehow these can be provided with the United States’ low levels of taxation. This is a circle that cannot be squared, although Labour hopes that if economic prosperity can be maintained it can somehow still be financed painlessly out of growth dividends. Public opinion has tended to respond positively but slowly to evidence of service improvements in health care and education, and to get just a little less downbeat and critical about transport. For Labour one danger is that these core issues for the party just move off voters’ worry lists of salient issues, to be replaced by much smaller issues that for the moment look out of control (like the level of asylum seekers in the 2003–04 period). A more deep-rooted problem would follow if voters listen to the claims of Conservative media and think tanks (like the ener- getic body Reform) complaining that government-sector productivity levels have collapsed and that the increased resources lavished on the public services under Labour have been partly or even largely wasted. Labour has countered by launching the Gershon efficiency review, which aims to save £20 billion by 2008 and by backing proposals in the Atkinson Report to better measure government outputs and productiv- ity. But proving that ‘value for money’ has been achieved will be no easy feat.

Conclusion

In 2005 Labour was decisively advantaged by the electoral system, winning 55 per cent of Commons seats with just 35.2 per cent of the vote. While it took over 100,000 votes to elect a Liberal Democrat MP, and 44,000 to elect a Conservative MP, each Labour MP needed less than 27,000 votes. If anything like this advantage persists through to 2009–10 it will be a powerful insulation against outright defeat. But to ensure that this happens Labour needs to counteract a ‘swing of the pendulum’ effect that may strengthen with every passing year, unless the economy should significantly pick up, or unless a Brown government could somehow portray itself as a very different thing from its Blairite predecessors. Econometric analysis suggests that in the UK an incumbent government loses support at the rate of 0.1 per cent for every month it stays in office (Sanders 2005). This may not sound like much at first, but over a four- year (48-month) Parliament it means a decline of 4.8 per cent. This will have consequences for Gordon Brown, who will have been close to the centre of power for twelve years by 2009, and such a remorseless seepage 16 Developments in British Politics 8 of electoral support is a hard act to counteract. Still, the balance of prob- abilities must still be against a Conservative revival sufficient to topple Labour outright. Yet the context for the Brown–Cameron–Campbell leader battle will also be set by developments in the wider party system, including perhaps most critically the distribution of Liberal Democrat second preferences and whether the increasing fragmentation of the vote to other parties in the 2000 to 2005 period can be stabilised or reversed. What is certain is that Tony Blair’s eventual departure from frontline British politics, Gordon Brown’s long-awaited arrival in No. 10, along with the arrival of David Cameron and Menzies Campbell as opposition leaders will jointly mark a new era in British politics. Index

‘A’ Level examination, 281 Andrews, M., 175, 345 Bakri Mohammed, Sheikh Aberdeen, 115 Anglosphere, 313 Omar, 210 accessibility, 10, 11 Animal Aid, 107 ‘balance’ between security Action on Smoking and Animal Liberation Front and liberty, 222, 223, Health (ASH), 102 (ALF), 103, 107 226, 227, 228 Adams, J., 157 animal rights, 100, 107 Baldwin, N., 50, 342 Additional Member Annan, Kofi, 172 Baldwin, Stanley, 247 System (AMS), 3, 59 Anti-Ballistic Missile Baldwin, Tom, 236 Admissions to Higher Treaty, 185 Balkans, 185 Education Steering Anti-Poll Tax Federation, Balls, Ed, 11, 256, 257, Group, 289 109 347 Adonis, Andrew (Lord), anti-social Bangladeshis, 197 287 behaviour/ASBOs, 26, Bank of England, 10, 33, advertising, 104, 231, 41, 63, 213, 219, 229, 120, 252, 259, 270, 320 232–3 230 Bara, J., 334 aerospace, 297 Anti-Terrorism, Crime and Barking, 60 affirmative action, 200, Security Act (ATCSA), Barnett, A., 296, 329, 336 201 134, 135, 216, 217, Barnett, Lord, 146, 147, Afghanistan, 28, 168, 170, 219, 223, 224 157 175, 176, 178, 179, apartheid, 218 Bartle, J., x, 343 180, 189, 190 Archbishop of Canterbury, Batey, A., 146 African debt, 28, 108 202, see also Williams, BBC News, 212, 219, 223 age of consent, 63 Archbishop Rowan BBC Online News, 248 ageing of the population, Arestis, P., 256, 347 Beattie, A., 330 83 Ashdown, Paddy, 180 Beaverbrook press, 247 agriculture, 156, 162 Ashley, Jackie, 236 Beckett, Margaret, 46 AIDS, 102 Asian voters, 93, 204 Beer, S., 42 air traffic control system, assimilation, 199, 201 Beetham, D., 329, 336, 335 astroturfing, 248 346, 348 Alcock, P., 301 Asylum and Immigration Bell, David, 201 alcohol industry, 105 Act, 195, 205, 215 Belmarsh, 216, 217, 224 Alexander, R., 344 Asylum and Immigration Bennett, J., 313 Alibhai-Brown, Y., 203, Appeals Act, 195 Bennite policies, 304 345 asylum seekers, 15, 79, Bentham, Jeremy, 228 Aliens Act, 194 163, 195, 196, 205, Bentsen, Lloyd, 18 Allan, Tim, 247 213, 214, 215, 220, 307 Berggren, N., 344 Allen, D., 160, 162, 164, asymmetrical power, 24 Berlin Wall, 303 165, 167, 187, 345 Atkinson Report, 15 Berrington, H., 36 Allen, N., 93 Atkinson, R., 15, 274 Bethnal Green and Bow, all-women shortlists Attlee, Clement, 295, 296 56, 60, 86, 209 (AWS), 73, 74, see also Australian model, 341 Bevir, M., 274, 295, 338, women candidates Australianisation of British 339, 347 al-Qaeda, 175, 178, 186, politics, 311 Bhatti, Gurpreet, 202 221 Aznar, José María, 28 big tent politics, 7, 311 Alternative Vote, 61, 310 bilateralism, in Amnesty International, Bache, I., 131, 132 government, 26, 27 109, 110 Back, L., 204 bin Laden, Osama, 178 Andersen, R., 7 Badie, B., 190 Bindman, G., 214, 224, Andeweg, R. B., 24 Bagehot, W., 49, 133, 315 225

371 372 Index

Biological Weapons 172, 188, 235, 236, capital punishment, 37 Convention, 185 251, 252, 257, 275, car manufacturers, 105, 297 Birch, A., 118 277, 285, 290, 291, Cardiff, 68, 163 Birmingham, 86, 197 293, 308, 309, 310, career politician, 42 black and minority ethnic 311, 313, 340, 341, Caribbean, 194, 195, 196, (BME) MPs, 73, 74 342, 347 197 Black Caribbeans, 196 Brussels, 156, 160, 161, Carlile, Lord, 223 black voters, 93, 207, 208 162, 163, 167, 175, Carriers Liability Act, 195 Black Wednesday, 2, 253 187, 321 carry-over facility (for Blackburn, R., 342, 344 Bryce, Lord, 36 parliamentary bills), 48 Blaenau Gwent, 56 Buddhists, 197 Carswell, D., 311, 313 Blairism without Blair, BUPA, 283 cartel parties, 68–9, 333 308–12 Burch, M., 21, 22, 23, 27, Castells, M., 302 Blair, A., 165, 345 342 casualty figures for Iraq, Blair, Cherie, 29 Burnley, 205, 209 184 Blair, Tony, passim buses, 297 catch-all parties, 68 Blair doctrine of foreign Bush, George W., 18, 28, Catholics, 83, 152 policy, 188–91 170, 177, 180, 181, Catt, H., 324 Blau, A., 323 183, 184, 185, 186, celebrity/celebrities, 7, 9, Blick, A., 225 187, 188–91, 345 237 Blunkett, David, 29, 33, Bush doctrine of foreign census, 2001, 196, 197, 205, 206, 221, 226, policy, 189–91 198, 203 235, 236, 280, 288, 289 business cycle, 256, 258, Central Africa, 190 Bogdanor, V., 160, 164, 259, 268, 271, 301 Central America, 190 177, 300, 344 Butler, D., 78, 343 Central and Eastern ‘bog-standard’ Butler, Robin (Lord), 20, Europe, 165 comprehensive schools, 25, 183, 245 central bank, 258, 259 287–8 Butler Inquiry, 334 Central Office of Bond, R., 327 Butt, R., 37, 118 Information (COI), 238 Bono, 172, 308 Byrne, I., 122, 134 centralisation of Bosnia, 175, 190 government, 20–2 Bouckaert, G., 326 Cabinet Office, 19, 20, 21, Centre for European Boundary Commission, 90 150, 233, 239, 277, Reform, 345 Bower, T., 342 342, 347 centripetal patterns of bowling alone, 112, 114 Cable, Vincent, 8 competition, 57 boycotts, 103, 107 cadre parties, 68–9 Chakrabarti, Shami, 224, Bradford, 197, 205 Callaghan, James, 42, 45, 225 Brazier, A., 48, 49, 342 300 Chancellery, German, 20 Brazier, R., 344 Callinicos, A., 337 Chaney, P., 141 Brent Spar, 107, 109 Cambridge, 67 Channel 4 News, 242 British Election Study Cameron, David, 1, 6, 8, 9, Charter 88, 329 (BES), 86, 87, 90, 343 10, 11, 12, 16, 54, 60, Chartists, 107 British Medical 64, 66, 74, 95, 202, 307, Chatham House, 183, 345 Association (BMA), 324, 338 Chemical Industries 102, 104 Campaign for Nuclear Association, 104 British National Party Disarmament (CND), Cheney, Dick, 182, 189 (BNP), 56, 58, 60, 62, 107 chequebook participation, 75, 76, 78, 85, 97, 194, Campbell, Alastair, 12, 25, 106, 109, 110 208, 209, 210, 346 234, 235, 237, 239, child poverty, 301 Bromley, C., 136, 144 240, 241, 245, 247 child trust fund, 301 Brookes, R., 241 Campbell, Menzies, 8, 9, Childs, S., x, 73, 74, 75 Brown, Gordon, 1, 2, 6, 7, 16, 67, 74, 325 China, 13, 178 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, Canada, 309, 333 Chirac, Jacques, 175, 177 16, 17, 18, 20, 22, 24, Canadianisation of British Chote, R., 275 27, 30, 32–4, 61, 62, 63, politics, 309, 311 Choudary, Anjem, 210 95, 108, 163, 166, 167, cannabis, 63 Christian Alliance, 307 Index 373

Church of England, 82, 83 Commission for Health Constitution Unit, Churchill, Winston, 1, 77, Improvement (CHI), University College 97, 296 279, 286 London, 125, 336, 344 citizens’ income, 305 Commission for Racial constitutional protective city academies, 287–8, Equality (CRE), 198, model of democracy, 290, 291 203, 205, 206, 207, 346 228 City of London, 173, 263 Commission on Social constitutional reform, City Seats Initiative (CSI), Justice, 303 113–37, 300 74 Commission on the Future Constitutional Reform city technology colleges, of Multi-Ethnic Britain, Act, 117, 120, 129 287 202, see also Parekh, B. Constitutional Reform Bill, civil disobedience, 107 Commission on the Powers 123, 127, 128, 129 civil liberties, 63, 212–30, and Electoral consumer demand, 14, 269 306, 310, 313, 327, 335 Arrangements of the Consumers Association, civil service, 20, 21, 23, National Assembly for 104 114, 115, 132, 133, Wales (Richard consumption boom, 14, 239, 291, 320, 326, Commission), 142, 143 270 334, 335 Common Agricultural control freakery, 19 Civil Service Act, 122, 137, Policy (CAP), 162, 168 control orders, 29, 135, 335 Common European 217, 221, 223 Civitas, 348 Security and Defence Controlling Our Borders: Clark, David, 235 Policy (CESDP), 164, Making Migration Work Clarke, Charles, 126, 217, 168, 186 for Britain, 205 220, 221, 281 Common European Cook, Robin, 25, 26, 27, Clarke, H. D., 76, 83, 91, Foreign and Security 28, 46, 48, 50, 126, 181, 343 Policy (CFSP), 164, 168, 182, 225, 329, 330, 342 Clarke, Ken, 12, 64, 253 176 Cooke, P., 142 Clarke, M., 187 Commons, House of, Cooper, Robert, 178, 186, class sizes, 274, 281 passim, see also 190, 192, 345 Clause 4, 10, 12 modernisation Copsey, N., 208, 346 Clift, B., 68, 257, 301, 347 Commonwealth, 164, 171, core executive, the, 19, climate change, 28, 169, 172, 194, 195 22–4, 335, 338 305, see also communitarianism, 306 core-executive model of environmentalism community charge/poll British government, 19, clinical priorities, 279, tax, 107, 109 24, 27, 342 283, 292 Compass, 305 Corn Laws, 43 Clinton, Bill, 18, 169, 170, Compassion in World Corner, J., 346 175, 176, 185, 189 Farming, 107 corporatism, 271, 298, closed shop, 297 competitiveness, 167, 303 Clyde, Lord, 223 204, 251, 256, 258, Council for the Protection coal, 297 260–1, 264, 266, 267, of Rural England coalition, 5, 6, 57, 58, 67, 268 (CPRE), 110 97, 108, 109, 140, 144, comprehensive schools, see council housing, 298 145, 148, 155, 184, ‘bog-standard’ Council of Ministers, 167 244, 285, 291, 303, comprehensive schools Countryside Alliance, 99, 304, 309, 310, 317, Comprehensive Spending 111, 307 319, 333 Review (CSR), 33, 274 court politics, 312 Coates, D., 242, 245, 255, Confederation of British courts, 98, 114, 115, 128, 256, 300, 303, 305, 347 Industry (CBI), 307 133, 217, 222, 223, 226 Cold War, 175, 177, 178, congestion charging, 151 Cowley, P., x, 2, 37, 43, 185, 188, 190, 191, 192 Congo, Democratic 44, 45, 46, 51, 52, 53, Cole, A., 142 Republic of, 179 54, 64, 325, 342 collectivism, 303 Conservatives/ Cox, A., 333 collegiality, 17, 18, 22, 24, Conservative Party, Cox, M., x, 192 30 passim Coxall, B., 343 Colomer, J., 333 constituency face, 37–41 Cracknell, D., 239 374 Index

Cranborne, Viscount, 126, Democratic Unionist Party diverse parliamentary 127 (DUP), 148, 149 candidates, choosing credibility, economic, demonstrations, 99, 103, more, 73–5 258–60, 261 111, 183, 191 diverse society, 194–8 Crenson, M. A., 110 Demos, 348 Dixon, J., 279, 286, 347 Crewe, I., 62, 93 Denmark, 164 Dobson, Frank, 325 Crick, Michael, 248 ‘denocracy’, 181 doctors, 9, 101, 105, 279, crime, 22, 26, 34, 85, Denver, D., 69, 70, 80, 93, 292, 293, 298, 339, see 150, 151, 215, 219, 343 also GPs 230, 307 Department for ‘dodgy dossier’, 245 Criminal Bar Association, Constitutional Affairs dollar, 14, 172 104 (DCA), 21, 30, 123, Dolowitz, D. P., 257 criminal justice, 28, 225, 124–5, 126, 129, 130 donations, 69, 70, 325, 229, 230, 275, 291 Department for Education 333 crisis of participation, 98 and Skills (DfES), 21, Dorling, D., 203, 204 Crosby, Lynton, 311 281 Dorset South, 60 Crouch, C., 298, 303, 312, Department for Work and Driver, S., x, 300, 347 348 Pensions (DWP), 21 Dummett, M., 343 Crown prerogatives, 23 Department of Health, Duncan Smith, Iain, 7, 12 Cruddas, Jon, 62, 233 104, 239, 284, 286 Dunleavy, P., x, 19, 58, 75, Curran, J., 231, 243, 247, Department of 78, 102, 322, 325, 329, 248, 346 International 330, 331, 333, 334, Curtice, J., 6, 144, 152, Development, 164 335, 342, 343, 348 331 Department of Justice, 125 Dunne, T., 178, 191 Cusick, J., 334 Department of the duopoly, 57, 58, 325 cyberactivism, 106 Environment, Food and Duvell, F., 204 Cyprus, 178 Rural Affairs (DEFRA), Duverger’s Law, 332, 333 21 Dyke, Greg, 242, 243, Daalder, I., 345 Department of Transport, 244, 346 Dahl, R., 346 Local Government and Daily Express, 240, 244 the Regions (DTLR), Earl Haig Fund, 104 Daily Mail, 63, 64, 240 150 Earthlings, British, 187–8 Daily Mirror, 240, 243 deregulation, 167, 296, East Timor, 179, 189 Daily Telegraph, 36, 236 300 Economic and Social Dalton, R. J., 343 detention, 212, 214, 215, Research Council Danchev, A., 181 216, 217, 218, 221, (ESRC), 344 Darley Oaks Farm, 103 223, 224, 336 economic Darling, Alistair, 125 devolution, 38, 45, 58, growth/prosperity, Darling, George, 39 120, 121, 122, 123, 13–15, 167, 252–6, 268, Davies, Gavyn, 243 125, 132, 133, 136, 271, 301, 305 Davis, David, 12, 64, 65, 137, 138–58, 161, 162, economic interdependence, 66, 226 294, 296, 300, 317, 251–71 Deacon, D., 231, 232, 248 321, 324, 327, 330, 344 economic management, Deakin, N., 20 Dewsbury, 60 within the EU, 166–8 dealignment, class and Diamond, P., 309 economic tests, five, 33, partisan, 57, 70, 83, 92, Dickie, J., 345 163, 167 97, 331 diplomacy, EU, 168–9 Economist, The, 283, 286 Dearing, Lord, 281, 288 direct action, 103, 107 Eden, Anthony, 1, 296 debt relief, 108, 171, 172 Directory of British Edinburgh, 108, 163, 247, decentralisation, 277, 302, Associations, 99 327, 329 306 discrimination, 198, 200, education, 14, 15, 20, 22, Defence of the Realm Act, 204, 205, 206, 207, 26, 28, 34, 72, 82, 85, 214 226, 346 90, 91, 100, 122, 140, democracy, conceptions of, disenfranchisement, 312 142, 144, 153, 167, 213, 218 disengagement, political, 98 198, 200, 203, 206, Democratic Audit, 329 Dishonour (Behzti), 202 249, 272, 274, 275, Index 375

277, 279–81, 282, 285, European Constitution, exogenous groups, 102 287, 288, 289, 290, 162, 165–6, 169, 270, expenditure claims, by 291, 293, 294, 298, 312, see also French and MPs, 39 307, 311 Dutch referenda external action service, EU, Education Act 1988, 280 European Convention on 169 Education Act 2002, 280, Human Rights, 120, extraordinary rendition, 287 128, 134, 163, 206, 336 Education and Skills Select 216, 217, 220, 223, extremism, 193, 209–10 Committee, 288 226, 300 EEC, 38 European Convention on Fabian Society, 348 elected regional assemblies the Constitution, 165 failed/failing states, 186, (ERAs), 150 European Council, 28, 188, 190, 191 Electoral Commission, 69, 165, 166, 167, 168, 186 fair trade, 305 77, 130 European foreign minister, Falconer, Lord, 123, 124, electoral professional 165, 169, 187 125, 129, 130, 133, 136 parties, 68 European Parliament, 3, Falklands War, 25 electoral reform, 61, 97, 75, 79, 98, 324, 330, farmers, 101, 107 129, 310 331 Farrell, D. M., 99, 142, Electoral Reform Society, European Parliament 343 343 Elections Act, 120 Fathers 4 Justice, 102, 107, electricity, 297 European Rapid Reaction 109 elitist view of group Force (ERRF), 168 Fawcett, H., 144 activity, 116 European Union (EU), 7, Fieldhouse, E., 72 Elster, J., 228 23, 28, 38, 136, 156, Fielding, S., 301 embryo research, 37 157, 159, 160, 161, Finland, 138 Emergency Powers 162, 163, 164–9, 170, fiscal policy, 297 (Defence) Act, 214 171, 172, 173, 174, Fisher, J., 68, 69 Emmerson, Ben, 224 175, 176, 178, 179, Flinders, M., x, 118, 119, Emmerson, C., 275, 276 185, 186, 187, 190, 124, 125, 126, 131, endogenous groups, 102 191, 192, 207, 214, 132, 133, 135, 280, England, devolution in, 220, 228, 266, 267, 283, 340, 347 149–51 275, 278, 298, 299, Flynn, D., 206 enlargement, EU, 165 307, 309, 313, 314, Foley, M., 17, 19, 342, environmentalism, 57, 67, 321, 337, 345 344 102, 107, see also European Union budget, 7, Foot, Michael, 2 climate change, see also 28, 167, 168, see also Foreign Affairs Select sustainable development rebate Committee, 241 Equality Act, 207 Europeanisation of British foreign direct investment equality guarantees, 73, foreign, security and (FDI), 261, 262, 264–5, 74 defence policy, 163, 267 Erewash, 60 173, 187 foreign exchanges, 14 ethnic minorities, 88, 91, Europeanisation of the Foreign Office, 20, 164, 95, 193, 194, 196–8, British economy, 265–7 181, 345 199, 203, 204, 205, Eurorealism, 162 Forest (Freedom 206, 207–9, 211 Euroscepticism, 37, 60, Organisation for the ethnic mix, Britain’s, 161, 162, 164, 166, Right to Enjoy Smoking 196–8 185, 344 Tobacco), 103 euro, 14, 18, 33, 163, 167, euthanasia, 37 FOREX (foreign exchange) 172, 183, 192, 255, Evans, G., 7 trading, 263 256, 270, see also single Evans, Harold, 247 Forman, N., 344 currency Evans, M., 299, 300 Forster, A., 165, 185, 344, Eurobarometer, 99, 100 exchange controls, 297 345 European Commission, Exchange Rate Mechanism Foster, C., 26, 27 187, 266, 345 (ERM), 13, 253, 271 Foster, Peter, 29 European Communities excise duty, 105 foundation hospitals, 43, Amendment Act, 120 executive domination, 134 52, 72, 284–6, 290, 291 376 Index foundation schools, 274, Geneva Convention, 208 Greater London Authority 280 Genoa, 111 (GLA), 120, 137, 138, Fox, Liam, 64, 65 George, S., 160, 192, 345 139, 149 France, 165, 168, 169, Germany, 107, 108, 115, Greater London Council, 170, 171, 176, 177, 165, 169, 170, 171, 151 183, 186, 187, 199, 172, 175, 176, 183, Green, J., 2 200, 214, 240, 264 186, 187, 214, 240, 264 Greenham Common, 107 Franco–German axis, 164 Gershon efficiency review, Greenpeace, 103, 104, Franklin, B., 346 15 107, 109 Frayne, C., 275, 276 Giddens, A., 300, 309, Greens, 56, 58, 60, 62, 75, free votes, 37, 49, 50 327, 337 76, 78, 97, 144, 145, Freedom of Information Giegerich, B., 186 304, 305, 306 Act, 38, 120, 133, 238 Gilbert, W. S., 41 Greenslade, R., 248 freedom of the press, 246 Gilligan, Andrew, 241, Greenwald, B., 257 French and Dutch 242, 243, 244, 246, 247 Greer, S., 141, 153 (European Constitution) Ginsberg, B., 110 Griffin, Nick, 209 referenda, 162, 166, Giscard d’Estaing, Valéry, groups, functions of, 106 169, 270, 312 165 Guantanamo Bay, 336 French Revolution, 214 Gladstone, William, 43 Guardian, 108, 215, 222, Fresh Start, 281 Glazer, N., 200 223, 224, 225, 226, Friends of the Earth, 109, Gleneagles, 28, 108 236, 237, 240, 243 110 global business cycle, 251, gun control, 37 253, 268, 269 Gutmann, A., 345 G8, 28, 107, 108, 171, 172 global governance, 171–3 Gaber, I., 235, 239 globalisation, 188, 196, Hague, William, 64, 87, Galloway, George, 56, 252, 258, 260, 261–7, 121, 127 208, 304 272, 305, 337, 347 Hain, Peter, 48, 125 Gamble, A., x, 31, 169, glorification of terrorism, halal meat, 201 345, 348 224 Hall, P. A., 114, 115 Gambling Bill, 48 GMTV, 237 Hallward, P., 147 gambling laws, 63 Golding, P., 231, 232 Halpin, T., 289 Garner, R., 324 Gordon, P., 201 Ham, C., 286 Garnett, M., 74 Gould, Philip, 233, 247 Hamilton, D. S., 187 gas, 107, 297 Government Hampshire, J., 196 gay and lesbian rights, 63, Communications handguns, 109 307 Network (GCN), 238 Hansard Society, 40, 46 Gaza, 184 Government Information Hansen, R., 194, 346 Geddes, A., 159, 161, 162, and Communications Harrison, B., 316, 348 163, 343, 344 (GIC), 238 Hartlepool, 58, 60 Geldof, Bob, 108, 172 Government of Wales Act, Hay, C., x, 131, 257, 264, gender equality, in society, 120 270, 272, 299, 347 57 Government Offices for Hayward, J., 348 gender gap, in political the Regions (GOs), 149 Hazell, R., 149, 158, 300, affiliation, 93, 94 GPs, 40, 274, 278, 285 344 gendered nature (of the Grant, W., 102, 270, 343 Heald, D., 147 British party system), grant-maintained schools, Healey, J., 39 57, 74 274, 280, 287 Health and Social Care general election, 2005, 1, grassroots politics, 305 Act, 278, 285 3, 7, 9, 17, 26, 56, 60, grassroots, party health authorities, 274, 61, 62, 64, 67, 73, 77, membership, 65, 66, 67, 278 78–86, 88, 91, 98, 207, 68, 71, 72, 248 Healthcare Commission, 236, 248, 274, 304, Great Lakes region of 286 306, 307, 309, 310, Africa, 190 Heath, A., 2, 151 322–4, 331, 343 Greater London Assembly, Heath, Edward, 175, 209 genetically modified (GM) 3, 58, 59, 75, 98, 138, Heathcoat-Amory, D., 234 crops, 103, 305 140, 149, 151, 331, 335 Heffer, Simon, 36, 43, 51 Index 377

Heffernan, R., xi, 22, 24, House of Lords, 27, 36, 201, 204, 205, 206, 68, 296, 299, 312, 324, 45, 49, 50, 51, 53, 60, 208, 209, 214, 215, 342 120, 121, 125, 126, 216, 307, 311, 345 Held, D., 227, 337, 346 128, 129, 130, 136, Immigration Act, 194 Hennessy, P., 17, 21, 23, 161, 216, 217, 300, Immigration and Asylum 26, 32, 33, 181, 300, 318, 321, 328, 330, Act, 215 342 341, see also reform Immigration and hereditary peers, 36, 49, House of Lords Act, 50, Nationality Directorate, 50, 51, 125, 126, 127, 51, 55, 120, 125 Home Office, 195 319, 330 House of Lords Bill, 51, implementation power, Hewart, Lord, 118 117, 123, 127 103, 104, 105 Hewitt, Patricia, 26, 126 house prices, 14, 269, 270, imports, 14, 255, 264 Hewitt, R., 346 271 income tax, 297, 300, 301, higher education, 288–90, housing policy, 291 306 294, see also top-up Hove, 60 incomes policy, 298 fees, see also tuition fees Howard League for Penal Independent, 17, 58, 216, Higher Education Bill, 289 Reform, 104 223, 224, 235, 240, hijab (headscarf), 199 Howard, Michael, 2, 7, 11, 244, 310, 320, 323 Hill, C., 170, 175, 177, 61, 64, 66, 87, 88, 208, Independent Health Care 181 237, 324 Association, 283 Hill, David, 239 Hughes, Beverley, 235 India, 172, 330, 333 Hills, J., 275 Hughes, Simon, 8 individualised society, 92 Hindus, 197, 198 human rights, 102, 107 industrial relations, 296, Hirst, P., 264, 303 Human Rights Act, 38, 297 Hiskett, M., 201 120, 128, 133, 135, industrial strategies, 298 Hizb-ut-Tahrir, 305 163, 164, 204, 206, inertia, constitutional, 299 HMS Pinafore, 41 220, 226, 317, 321, inflation, 14, 87, 251, 252, Hocking, B., 164 327, 330, 335 253, 255, 257, 258, Hodge, Margaret, 109 human-capital formation, 259, 268, 269, 270, Hoffmann, Lord, 217 258, 269 271, 298 Holliday, I., 21, 22, 23, 27, humanitarian crises, 186 infrastructure, 130, 135, 342 humanitarian intervention, 141, 282 Hollis, Christopher, 41, 188, 190 Ingham, Sir Bernard, 234, 118 Humphrys, John, 247 346 hollowing out (of parties), hung Parliament, 5, 6, 310 insider strategy, 102 19, 311 hunting, 37, 103, 107 insider/outsider distinction Home Affairs Select Hussein, D., 197, 198 between groups, 102 Committee, 195, 207 Hussein, Saddam, 108, Institute for Fiscal Studies Home Office, 195, 196, 170, 177, 180, 240, 241 (IFS), 310, 347 204, 205, 208, 216, Hutton Inquiry, 183, 238, Institute for Public Policy 220, 221 242–5, 334 Research (IPPR), 299, home ownership, 83, 95, Hutton, W., 257, 296, 347 304, 347 291 Huysmans, J., 215, 220 Institute of Directors, 104 homelessness, 102 Institute of Economic homosexuality, 37 ICM, 85, 86, 88 Affairs (IEA), 348 Hood, C., 9 identity cards, 63, 76, 213, integrated financial Hooghe, E., 161 214, 215, 219, 335 markets, 262–3 Hoon, Geoff, 25 Identity Cards Bill, 215 interest rates, 13, 87, 252, Hoover, Herbert, 38 identity politics, 307 253, 255, 259, 268, hospitals, 272, 274, 278, ideological alternatives, 270, 271 279, 282, 283, 284, 303–7 internal market, 274, 278, 285, 286, 292, 293 ideological outsider, 103 279, 284, 285, 286, 294 Hough, D., 153 IMF, 172, 265, 310 international context, House of Commons, immigration, 60, 83, 85, 159–73 passim, see also 95, 144, 163, 165, 187, International Criminal modernisation 194, 195, 199, 200, Court, 169, 185 378 Index

International Monetary Joint Ministerial Kilbrandon Commission, Fund (IMF), 172, 310 Committee (JMC), 156 see Royal Commission international Jones, Ieuan Wyn, 67 Kilroy-Silk, Robert, 60 organisations, 190 Jones, N., 232, 234 King, A., 2, 77, 343, 344 Internet, 88, 106, 111, Joppke, C., 194, 195, 346 King, D., 85, 88, 200, 343 112, 240, 345 Jordan, B., 204 King, Martin Luther, 229 involvement, political, Jordan, G., 37, 105, 110, King, Oona, 56, 209 100–1, 106–12 343 King’s Fund, 285 Iran, 169, 180 Joseph Rowntree Reform Kinnock, Neil, 299 Iraq, 7, 9, 13, 25, 28, 30, Trust (JRRT), 329 Kirchner, J., 257 43, 48, 67, 79, 83, 84, Jowell, J., 348 Kirklees, 197 85, 86–7, 90, 93, 95, 96, Judge, D., 38, 119, 327, Kirkwood, Archy, 39 107, 122, 136, 151, 340, 344 Klein, R., 286 168, 169, 170, 171, Judicial Appointments Klug, F., 201, 329 176, 178–84, 185, 186, Commission, 127, 128, Koenig-Archibugi, M., 337 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 133 Kosovo, 176–7, 179, 189 198, 206, 208, 210, 212, judiciary, 127, 164, 196, Krieger, J., 242, 298, 302, 235, 236, 238, 239, 240, 206, 219, 222, 223, 305 241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 224, 225, 226, 227, Kuhn, R., 232 247, 248, 249, 304, 305, 228, 321 Kymlicka, W., 202, 345 308, 314, 333, 334, 335, July 7, 174, 183, 193, 206, Kyoto Protocol, 169, 185 345, 346, see also 212, 220, 312, 313 casualty figures, see jury trials, 52, 213 Labour/Labour Party, also Hussein, Saddam, passim see also Stop the (Iraq) Kagan, Robert, 185, 192, labour shedding, 269 War 345 labour-market Irish Nationalists, 57 Kaiser, W., 329 flexibility/rigidity, 258, Irish Republican Army Kalestsky, A., 275 269, 297 (IRA), 147, 148 Kampfner, J., 170, 176, Laeken Declaration, 165 irrational to vote, 92 178, 305, 308, 345 Lambert, D., 142 Irvine, Lord, 121, 123, 126 Karlson, N., 344 Lamont, Norman (Lord), Islamic schools, 200 Katrina, Hurricane, 108, 32 Islamists, 304 248 Lanchester, J., 334 Israeli–Palestinian conflict, Katz, R., 23, 68, 333 Law Lords, 128, 129, 135, 168, 184 Kavanagh, D., 78, 236, 216, 217, 220, 223, issue voting, 81, 84, 92 295, 316, 343, 345 224, 321 Ivory Coast, 190 Keating, M., 145, 146, 344 Law Society, 104 Keegan, William, 236 Law, Peter, 56 James, Howell, 239 Kelly, David, 29, 235, 238, Lawrence, Stephen, 204 James, S., 25 242, 243, 244, 245 Laws, D., 67 Japan, 264, 267 Kelly, G., 44, 301 Lawson, Nigel (Lord), 26, Jeffery, C., xi, 141, 144, Kelly, Ruth, 281 27, 302 147, 150, 153, 156, 344 Kelly, Siobhan, 239 lawyers, 101, 105, 216, Jewish people, 194, 197, Kelly, Tom, 235, 239 224 198 Kelso, A., 46 Laycock, S., xi jihad, 174 Kennedy, Charles, 8, 61, Layton-Henry, Z., 195 Johnson, Alan, 236 67, 72, 74, 87, 88, 96, Le Grand, J., 273, 292, Johnson, B., 25 225, 237, 325 347 Johnson, N., 131 Kennon, A., 342 Le Monde, 170 Johnston, R., 69, 89 Kerr, Sir John, 166 Lea, R., 293 joined-up government, 21 Kerr, P., 304 Leader of the House, 31, Joint Committee on Lords Kettle, Martin, 236 46, 48, 125, 182 reform, 126, 127 Keynesian economics, 257, leadership, political, 1–16, Joint Council for the 301 17, 18, 19, 23, 30, 34, Welfare of Immigrants Kidderminster Hospital 40, 45, 51, 54, 55, 62, (JCWI), 198, 206 and Health Concern, 56 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, Index 379

69, 71, 72, 73, 74, 87–8, Loescher, G., 214 62, 63, 87, 167, 195, 95, 96, 151, 164, 165, London, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 25, 232, 234, 239, 271, 166, 172, 176, 206, 28, 38, 58, 59, 68, 79, 274, 277, 296, 298, 234, 241, 247, 253, 111, 139, 140, 149, 300, 312 299, 302, 307, 311, 151, 174, 175, 182, majoritarian protective 318, 324, 325, 328, 183, 186, 187, 190, model of democracy, 333, 334, 338 193, 196, 197, 198, 227, 228 Leeds, 205 203, 210, 212, 216, Make Poverty History Leggett, W., 337 217, 269, 292, 305, (MPH), 103, 106, 108, legitimation crisis, 327, 312, 317, 318, 319, 109, 308 340 321, 324, 325, 327, Maloney, W. A., xi, 105, Lennon and McCartney, 330, 335, 336, 339 110, 115, 343 308 London Assembly, see managerialist politics, 7, Leverhulme Trust, 344 Greater London 13, 76, 339 Lewis, J., 241 Assembly Manchester, 67, 107, 197 Liaison Committee, 47, London Tube, 335 Mandelson, Peter, 33, 178, 319, 326 Lord Chancellor, role of, 300 Liberal Democrats, 2, 6, 8, 127, 129 Mangold, P., 345 16, 28, 53, 54, 56, 58, Lords, see House of Lords Mankiw, Greg, 257 61, 62, 66, 67, 69, 70, Lords’ Constitution Mann, J., 189, 345 72, 74, 75, 78, 79, 80, Committee, 125 Manning, David, 25 83, 86, 88, 89, 90, 91, Loughlin, J., 155 Manningham-Buller, 94, 96, 97, 140, 141, Lovenduski, J., 74 Dame Eliza, 222 144, 145, 160, 180, Low, S., 118 manufacturing economy, 225, 306, 309, 310, Lowe, R., 298 255 323, 325, 329, 330, 340 Lowell, A. L., 42 Maor, M., 343 Liberal view of the Lucas, C., 306 marches, 99 constitution, 118, 119, Ludlam, S., 277 Margetts, H., 78, 151, 122, 124, 127, 132 Luntz, Frank, 65 333, 335 Liberty (the organisation), Luxembourg, 176, 186 marketisation of public 224 Lynch, P., 324 services, 21, 291, 294 Libya, 191 Marks, G., 161 licensing laws, 63 Maastricht Bill, 45 Marquand, D., 130, 131, Liddle, R., 300 MacDonald, R., 147 298, 315, 348 Lijphart, A., 18, 24, 227 Macedonia, 190 Marr, Andrew, 247 Lindsay, J., 345 MacGinty, R., 152 Marsh, D., 20, 24, 31, 34, Lisbon Agenda, 167 Macintyre, D., 342 131, 296, 297, 342 Lissauer, R., 301 Maclean, I., 50 Marshall, P., 67 literacy, 281 Maclennan, Lord, 329, Martell, L., 300, 347 Little, R., 345 330 Martians, American, Livingstone, Ken, 6, 58, Macmillan, Harold, 296 185–6 62, 151, 325 Macpherson Inquiry, 204, Marxism, 337 Lloyd George, David, 312 207 Massey, A., 277 Lloyd, J., 18, 246–9, 250, MacPherson, C. B., 228, mass-membership parties, 346 229, 346 68 lobby arrangement, 234 macroeconomic policy, 32, mayors, 58, 318, 327, 335 lobby politics, 312 257, 259, 260, 300 McConnell, A., 145 local education authorities Madrid, 183 McConnell, Jack, 144 (LEAs), 274, 280, 281, Madrid Summit Working McCrone, D., 327 288, 290 Paper Series, 346 McGhee, D., 346 local government, 10, 61, Maer, L., 134 McGrew, A., 337 141, 273, 280, 318, Magna Carta, 213 McKenzie, R. T., 23 327, 335 Mail on Sunday, 241 McLeish, H., 144 Local Government Act, 120 Mair, P., 23, 68, 333 McLeod, A., 147 local management of Major, John, 14, 20, 31, McNair, B., 346 schools (LMS), 280 36, 37, 43, 45, 52, 58, Meade, J., 306 380 Index medical insurance, private, Morgan, K., 142, 295 national identity, British, 298 Morgan, Piers, 243 201, 202, 203, 313 Mental Capacity Bill, 48 Morgan, Rhodri, 68, 140, National Institute for MEPs (Members of the 144 Clinical Excellence European Parliament), Morgan, Sally, 25 (NICE), 279 3, 58, 59, 60, 99, 318 MORI, 1, 86, 240, 343 national insurance, 94, Messina, A., 209 Morris, Estelle, 281 278, 301 Metropolitan Police, 207 Morrison, J., 121, 133, National Pensioners’ Mexico, 188 134, 328, 344, 348 Convention, 104 Meyer, Christopher, 192 Mosley, Sir Oswald, 214 National Policy Forum MG Rover, 303 Moss, M., 239 (NPF), Labour Party, MI6, 241 Mowlam, Mo, 235 71, 72 Michael, Alun, 325 Moxon, S., 195 national security, 23, 214 Micklethwait, J., 187, 189 Mulgan, Geoff, 247, 273 National Society for the Middle East, 180, 181, Mullard, M., 297 Prevention of Cruelty to 184, 190, 191, 240, 304 multiculturalism, 193–211, Children (NSPCC), 104 Middleton, S., 233 299, 313, 345, 346 National Trust, 99 Midlands, 64, 197 multilevel governance NATO, 168, 170, 175, Migration Watch, 208, (MLG), 117, 131–5, 176, 179, 185, 186, 192 307, 346 160, 161, 171, 173 Naughtie, J., 308 Milburn, Alan, 62, 236, multinational companies, Navarro, M., 142 283, 284, 286, 291, 105, 306 Neath, 60 293, 347 Murdoch, Rupert, 243, negative executive Miliband, David, 11, 273 244, 247, 248, 249 mentality, 119 Miliband, Ed, 11 Murphy, Darren, 239 Neighbourhood Watch, Millennium Dome, 335 Muslim Council of Great 114 Miller, D., 241, 346 Britain, 207, 210 neo-cons, 189 Miller, P., 338 Muslims, 60, 82, 83, 86, 93, neo-liberalism, 175, 299, Miller, W. L., 236 197, 198, 199, 201, 208, 301–3 minimum wage, 301 209, 210, 304, 305, 346, Nergelius, J., 344 Ministry of Defence, 20, see also Sunni Muslims New Deal, 232 164, 179, 242 new public management, Ministry of Justice, 30 Nairn, T., 133 see public management Mitchell, J., 140, 144, 146 Napoleon, 214 New Statesman, 329 mixed economy, 286, 298 National Assembly for New Yorker, 28 models of voting, 81 Wales, 3, 58, 59, 67, 75, New Zealand, 333 modernisation, House of 79, 98, 138, 139, 140, Newman, J., 279, 347 Commons, 45–9 142, 155, 163, 331 News International, 248, modernisation, public National Audit Office, see also Murdoch, services, 13–15, 55, 64, 195, 283 Rupert 122, 125, 258, 272–94, National Curriculum, 280, news media, 12, 18, 29, 325, 328, 334, 342 288 219, 231–50 Modood, T., 197, 346 National Executive News of the World, 244, monarchy, 18, 330 Committee (NEC), 248 Monbiot, George, 108, Labour Party, 18 Newsnight, BBC, 65, 248 225, 305 National Farmers’ Union, NGOs, 172, 190 monetary policy, 268 104 NHS Direct, 279 Monetary Policy National Front (NF), 208 NHS Plan, The, 279, 283, Committee, see Bank of National Health Service 284 England (NHS), 18, 29, 84, 85, Nice Treaty, 165 money laundering, 187 90, 106, 141, 194, 274, Nicholls, Lord, 223 Monks, John, 277 275, 278–9, 281, 283, nodality, 9 Moore, Charles, 199 284, 285, 286, 291, ‘Nolan rules’, 325 Moore, Jo, 239 292, 293, 301, 321, 326 norms of participation, Moran, M., 297, 298, 334, National Health Service 91 347 Act, 278 Norris, P., 340, 343 Index 381

North American Free Oliver, D., 348 Paxton, W., 297, 301 Trade Agreement Oliver, Jamie, 237 payroll vote, 29 (NAFTA), 188 Oliver, T., xi, 164, 169, peak associations, 105 North East of England, 170, 180, 182, 184, Pearce, N., 297 129, 138, 150, 151, 185, 187 Peel, Sir Robert, 43 327, 335 Olympics, 2012, 7, 25, 28 Peele, G., xi North Korea, 180, 185, one member one vote Pels, D., 346 191 (OMOV), 71 pendulum, swing of, 3, 15 North Mayo, 107 Operation Black Vote pensioner poverty, 301 North of England, 64 (OBV), 207, 208 pensions, 52, 55, 75, 86, North West of England, opinion research, 231, 293, 297, 298 130, 150, 197, 209 232–3 Pentagon, 182, 183 Northern Ireland, 28, 38, Orange Order march, 113 permanent revolution, 21 56, 57, 59, 75, 113, 125, Osborne, George, 11 Perri 6, 294, 347 137, 138, 139, 146, Ottawa Land Mine Peston, R., 18, 236, 342, 147–9, 152, 155, 161, Convention, 185 347 175, 196, 214, 242, outsider group strategies, Peters, B. G., 298 318, 319, 321, 344 103 petitions, 98, 103, 107, Northern Ireland Owen, David (Lord), 302 111, 115 (Elections) Act, 120 Owen, G., 298 philanthropists, 339 Northern Ireland Owens, J. E., 42 Phillips, Melanie, 199 Assembly, 75, 138, 139 Oxfam, 102, 108 Phillips, Trevor, 203 Northern Ireland Office, Phillis Report, 237–9 140 Packer, G., 183, 345 Pierre, J., 131, 298 Norton, P. (Lord), 36, 39, Page, A., 146 Pilkington, A., 346 40, 42, 46, 50, 53, 133, Page, B., 244 Pinto-Duschinsky, M., 323 326, 327, 342 Paisley, Rev. Ian, 148 Pitt, William, 213 Norton, Richard, 243 Pakistanis, 196, 198 Plaid Cymru (PC), 58, 67, Notting Hill, 209 Palgrave Review of British 78, 141, 153, 154, 304 Nottingham, 209 Politics, 342 Plant, R., 344 nuclear waste disposal, 335 Palmer, J., 346 pluralist view of group numeracy, 281 Parekh, B. (Lord), 200, activity, 116 nurses, 269, 279, 292, 293 202–3, 345 plurality-rule voting Parker, G., 168, 169 system, 5, 316, 318, O’Brien, D., 274, 347 Parliamentary Affairs, 342 323, 327, 331, 332, O’Donnell, Gus, 20 Parliamentary Questions, 333, 338, 341 O’Neil, M., 324 47 pocket book voters, 10 O’Neill, O., 247 parliamentary sovereignty, Poguntke, T., 17 O’Sullivan, J., 201 117, 128, 133, 134, policing, 41, 98, 105, 114, Oaten, Mark, 8 164, 317, 321 115, 139, 140, 190, Oborne, P., 240, 242, 346 Parris, M., 334 207, 212, 216, 218, Observer, 29, 217, 230, Parry, R., 20, 343 225, 229, 275, 305 236 participation, political, policy communities, 103, Office for Standards in 100–1, 106–12 155 Education (Ofsted), 201, partisan identification, 70, policy networks, 31, 37, 280 77 338 Office of National party competition, 153, policy variation, under Statistics (ONS), 9, 293 155, 207, 304, 322, 331 devolved government, Office of Public Services party membership, 69–70 153–5 Reform, 277, 347 party systems, 2–7, 56–76 political economy, of New Office of the Deputy Prime Paterson, L., 153 Labour, 251–71 Minister (ODPM), 21 Pattie, C., 69, 100, 101, Political Parties, Elections oil industry, 105 114, 115, 343 and Referendums Act, oil prices, 14, 271, 310 Paul, K., 194 69, 70, 120 old guard, 12 pax Americana, 174 political protest, 106, 107 Oldham, 205 Paxman, Jeremy, 247 polling stations, 93 382 Index

Pollitt, C., 326 Project for the New Regional Assemblies Pollock, A., 283, 284, 285, American Century, 189 (Preparations) Act, 120 347 propaganda war, over Regional Chambers, 149, poor, the, 88, 233, 275, invasion of Iraq, 240–6 150 312 proportional Regional Development populations of seats held representation (PR), 3, Agencies (RDAs), 120, by different parties, 89 5, 58, 60, 61, 143, 309, 149 Portugal, 138 310, 317, 318, 319, Regional List system, 59 Posen, A. S., 259 324, 330, 331, 332, Registration of Political positive discrimination, 73 333, 335, 340, 341 Parties Act, 120 Post Office, 37 protectionism, 300, 302 Reid, John, 26, 31, 48, postal voting, 331 protest voting, 4, 96 236, 291, 347 post-materialist issues, 57 Public Administration Reif, K., 153 postmodern turn, 337–9 Select Committee, 23, religious adherence, 83, Pound, Stephen, 39 335 197 Powell, Colin, 182 public deficit, 14 Rennard, Lord, 72 Powell, Enoch, 35, 200, public management, new, Rent (Agriculture) Bill, 43 209 298–9 Rentoul, J., 308 Powell, Jonathan, 20, 25, public relations, 9, 12, Resolution 1441, UN, 182 192 183, 231–50, 346 Respect (political party), Power, G., 41, 342 public services, see 56, 60, 62, 75, 76, 78, Power, M., 298 modernisation 86, 97, 209, 304, 305 prelegislative scrutiny, 47, Putnam, R. D., 110, 112, respect agenda, 22, 28, 48 113, 114, 343 229 Prescott, John, 33, 150, rhetoric, about security 287 Question Time, BBC, 236 and civil liberties, prescription charges, 141 Quinlan, J. P., 187 218–26 presidentialisation, 17, 19, Quinn, T., 324 Rhodes, R. A. W., 19, 132, 22, 320, 326, 342 295, 338, 339, 342, 347 pressure groups, 104–6 Race Relations Richard and Judy, Channel Prevention of Terrorism (Amendment) Act, 204 4, 237 Act, 214, 217, 219, 221, Race Relations Acts, 206 Richard Commission, see 223, 225 RAF, 179, 187 Commission on the Prevention of Terrorism Railtrack, 335 Powers and Electoral Bill, 135 railways, 297 Arrangements, etc. Price, L., 234, 235, 346 Rallings, C., 151, 327 Richards, D., 20, 24, 31, primary care trusts Rawlence, B., 190 34, 315, 316, 326, 340, (PCTs), 278, 285, 286, Rawlings, R., 344 342 291 Rawnsley, A., 8, 18, 236, Richards, P., 40 Prime Minister’s 308, 342 Richards, S., 233 Questions, 47 Raynsford, Nick, 335 Richardson, J., 37 prime ministerial Reagan, Ronald, 175 Riddell, P., 38, 42, 46, authority, 27–32 rebate, Britain’s EU 170, 176, 183, 192, Private Finance Initiative budget, 7, 28, 162, 168 342, 345 (PFI), 11, 282, 283, 284, redistribution, 252, 275, Robinson, Nick, 247, 248 292, 299 303, 304, 305, 310 Robison, R., 302 private Referendums (Scotland Rogers, R., 342 sector/privatisation, 37, and Wales) Act, 120 Rokkan, S., 140 232, 282–4, 285, 287, reform, House of Lords, Rometsch, D., 161 296, 297, 300 45–54, 125–7 Rose, N., 28, 338, 339, process stories, 29 Reform (think tank), 15 342 Proctor and Gamble, 232 reformist critique, of the Rose, R., 45 productivity, 15, 32, 292, Westminster model, Rosenblum, N., 110 293 328–36 Rossport Five, 107 progressive consensus, Refugee Council News, Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 294, 302, 309, 310 225 98 Index 383

Roy, O., 197 schools, 102, 105, 106, Senior Citizens’ Unity Royal Commission on the 199, 200, 201, 205, Party, 144 Constitution 207, 272, 279, 280, September 11, 122, 170, (Kilbrandon 281, 282, 283, 287, 175–8, 180, 181, 188, Commission), 143 288, 291, 292 189, 191, 193, 203, Royal Institute of Schroeder, Gerhard, 178 206, 209, 212, 216, International Affairs Sciara, M., 53, 54 227, 229, 239, 328, (RIIA), 345 Scotland, 3, 5, 10, 38, 45, 345, 346 Royal Mail, 67 56, 59, 64, 74, 75, 90, Sewel motions, 145, 157 Royal Navy, 179, 187 105, 120, 125, 132, Sex Discrimination Royal Society for the 138, 139, 141, 142, (Election Candidates) Prevention of Cruelty to 143–6, 147, 152, 153, Act, 73 Animals (RSPCA), 107 154, 155, 156, 157, sexual behaviour, 95 Royal Society for the 161, 285, 296, 309, Seyd, P., 69, 70, 72 Protection of Birds 318, 319, 321, 324, Shadow Cabinet, 12 (RSPB), 99, 104 333, 340, 344 Shared Parenting Royal United Services Scotland Act, 120 Information Group Institute (RUSI), 345 Scott, D., 33 (SPIG), 102 Rubin, Bob, 18 Scott, J., 334 Shaw, E., 122 Rumsfeld, Donald, 182 Scottish Constitutional Shelter, 102 Runciman, W. G., 183, 334 Convention, 143, 144, Sherlock, N., 302 Runnymede Trust, 193 329 shipbuilding, 297 Rush, M., 342 Scottish Health Campaigns shopping vouchers for Rushdie, Salman, 197, Network (SHCN), 105 refugees, 215 200, 202 Scottish National Party Short, Clare, 17, 25, 182 (SNP), 58, 67, 78, 144, Russell, A., 69, 72, 343 Shugart, M., 330 145, 153, 154, 304 Russell, M., 53, 54, 71, 72, Sierra Leone, 168, 179, Scottish Office, 30, 124, 74 189, 190 130, 140 Russia, 178 Sikhs, 197, 201, 202 Scottish Parliament, 3, 58, Ryder, Richard, 244 Simple Plurality, 59 59, 67, 75, 79, 98, 138, Ryle, Michael, 46, 48, 55 139, 144, 145, 146, Singapore, 28, 330 153, 163, 331 single currency, European, Sacranie, Sir Iqbal, 210 Scottish Socialist Party, 60, 18, 161, see also euro safety groups, 105 144, 145 Single European Market, Salisbury Convention, 53, Searle, G. R., 57 163 54 Seaton, J., 231, 243, 247, single-member plurality Salisbury Review, 201 248, 346 system (SMPS), 56, 58, Salmond, Alex, 67 Seattle, 111 59, 75, 77, 89 Sambrook, Richard, 241, Secondary Heads single-party governments, 242 Association, 102 316, 331 same-sex couples, 63 secondary picketing, 297 Single Transferable Vote San Francisco Chronicle, sectional/promotional (STV), 59, 144 108 distinction (between Sinn Fein, 44, 147, 148, Sanders, D., 15, 62, 259, groups), 101 149 343 security, 14, 29, 63, 122, sits-in, 107 Satanic Verses, 197 139, 147, 162, 166, Slagstad, R., 228 Savage, S., 274 168, 170, 174–92, 208, small parties, 79 Saward, M., xi, 228 212–30, 240, 298, 306, Smith Institute, 10 Sawyer, M., 256, 347 313, 345 Smith, Andrew, 236 Scandinavian model, 303 Security Council, UN, 172, Smith, J., 164, 165, 167, Schattschneider, E. E., 116 182, 187 171, 183, 187, 192 schechita meat, 201 Sedgefield, 23, 28 Smith, John, 121 Schmitt, H., 153 Seldon, A., 18, 21, 26, 31, Smith, K., 345 School Standards and 34, 181, 188, 189, 190, Smith, M. J., xii, 19, 20, Framework Act, 280, 295, 308, 342, 345, 24, 31, 34, 315, 316, 281 347, 348 326, 340, 342 384 Index

Smith, Trevor, 329 stamp duties, 301 tactical voting, 90 Snow, John, 18 Stanyer, J., 240 Taliban, 180 Snow, Jon, 242 ‘star system’, 9 Tant, A. P., 315 Snowdrop Campaign, 104, State Department, US, 174, targets, 21, 105, 140, 141, 107, 109 182, 183 167, 170, 176, 225, social capital, 99, 110, ‘stealth taxes’, 14, 94, 301 228, 246, 248, 252, 112–15, 343 steel, 297 271, 274, 279, 281, social characteristics of Stephens, P., 171 290, 292, 293, 298, voters, 80, 83, 91 sterling, 14, 167, 172, 253, 305, 307 social democracy, 175, 255, 256, 263, 268 tax credits, 301, 335 272–3, 292, 295, 296, Stevenson, Wilf, 10 taxation, 15, 85, 162, 163, 299, 300, 302, 303, Stewart, J., 124 164, 165, 166, 167, 304, 305, 306 Stewart, J. D., 101 260, 273, 275, 288, Social Democratic and Stiglitz, J., 257 296, 300, 301, 306, 311 Labour Party (SDLP), stock market, 14 Taylor, Ann, 46 148 Stoke, 205 Taylor, C., 345 Social Democratic Party Stoker, G., 131 Taylor, J. (Lord), 208 (SDP), 302 Stop Huntingdon Animal Taylor, Richard, 56 social-housing crisis, 269 Cruelty (Shac), 107 Teacher and Higher social inequality, 338 Stop the BNP, 346 Education Act, 289 social-investment state, Stop the (Iraq) War, 108, teachers, 101, 105, 107, 302 109, 111 144, 269, 281, 288, social justice, 230, 273, Storer, A., 142 292, 298 274, 292, 294, 300, Stothard, P., 184, 334 Tebbit, Norman (Lord), 301, 302, 303, 306 Straw, Jack, 25, 203, 322, 201, 202 Social Market Foundation, 323 telecommunications, 297 348 Street, J., 346 Telegraph, 244 social security, 165 Stuart, M., 46, 52, 54, 329 Tennyson, Alfred, 340 social workers, 339 Study of Parliament terrorism, 7, 13, 17, 28, Socialist Workers Party Group, 46 29, 63, 72, 84, 86, 122, (SWP), 304 Subrahmanyam, G., 330 163, 164, 170, 171, Social-psychological sub-Saharan Africa, 171 183, 184, 185, 186, models of voting, 81 Suez, 334 187, 189, 190, 191, socioeconomic status suffragettes, 107 193, 196, 206, 207, (SES), 100, 115, 116 Summers, Larry, 18 208, 210, 211, 212, sociological models of Sun, 236, 240, 241, 244, 213, 214, 215, 216, voting, 81, 91 248 217, 218, 219, 220, ‘sofa government’, 26, Sunday Times, 27, 213, 221, 222, 223, 224, 245, 320, 326 244, 247, 248 225, 226, 227, 229, Solana, Javier, 176 Sunni Muslims, 198, 305 230, 304, 305, 313, solidarity, 112, 152, 169, Supplementary Vote, 59, 328, 335, 336, 346 181, 305 318 Terrorism Act, 215, 217, South Africa, 177, 218 supply side, 69, 257, 258, 225 South Asia, 194, 196 260, 301 Terrorism Bill, 44, 52, special advisors, 9, 20, Supreme Court, 123, 127, 212, 217, 218, 219 234, 239, 246 128, 129, 300, 317, Thatcher, Margaret, 18, Special Immigration 321, 340 19, 20, 25, 26, 30, 35, Appeals Commission Sure Start, 277 44, 52, 58, 62, 63, 162, (SIAC), 216 sustainable development, 164, 167, 168, 175, Spectator, 245 171, see also climate 195, 231, 232, 234, Spence, D., 164 change, see also 274, 291, 295, 296–8, spin/spin doctors, 231, environmentalism 299, 300, 302, 307, 233–7, 248, 250 Sutherland, K., 344 312, 325, 326 Sri Lanka, 195 Swaray, R., 297 Thatcherism, 273, 277, St Malo declaration, 176 Sykes, S., 155 279, 280, 293, 295, stakeholding, 302 Syria, 180, 191 296, 299–300, 302, 303 Index 385

The Wright Stuff, Channel Tumber, H., 346 Wales, 3, 5, 10, 38, 45, 48, 5, 236 Turnbull, Andrew, 20, 25 56, 59, 67, 74, 75, 89, Theakston, K., 328 turnout, 5, 69, 70, 77, 78, 102, 103, 120, 125, Third Way, 175, 271, 274, 91, 92, 93, 98, 99, 115, 132, 138, 140–3, 144, 296, 300–1, 302, 337 207, 237, 318, 321, 331 145, 146, 152, 153, Thompson, G., 264 two-party politics, 56, 79, 154, 155, 156, 161, Thrasher, M., 151 308, 324, 340 285, 296, 318, 319, Tickell, A., 151 Tyndall, John, 209 321, 324, 333, 344 Tiltman, D., 232 Tyrie, A., 122 Welsh Office, 30, 124, Times, The, 46, 48, 236, 130, 140, 141, 143 240, 244, 247, 248 Ulster Unionist Party Walker, D., 63, 300 Timmins, N., 298 (UUP), 148 Wallace, W., 169, 170, Today, BBC, 241 unemployment, 14, 87, 180, 182, 184, 185, 186 Tomkins, A., 344 163, 251, 252, 255, Walters, R., 342 Tomlinson, J., 257, 281, 257, 258, 259, 260, Walters, S., 240, 242, 346 301, 347 271, 297 Wanless, D., 278 Tomlinson, Sir Mike, 281 unilateralism, 191, 302 Ward, S., 111 Tonge, J., 343, 344 unipolar world, 174, 189 Ware, A., 343 ‘Tony’s Cronies’, 49 United Kingdom Warren, M., 113 top-up fees, University, 43, Independence Party Washington, 174, 175, 44, 236, 289, see also (UKIP), 56, 58, 60, 75, 176, 181, 182, 186, tuition fees 78, 97, 208, 304, 307 187, 190, 193, 242 Townend, John, 209 United Nations (UN), 172, waste, war on, 307 Toynbee, P., 63, 300 181, see also Resolution water (industry), 68, 140, trade balance, 255 1441, see also Security 141, 159, 202, 295, 297 trade, international, 263–4 Council, see also Watson, C. W., 199, 345 trade unions, 69, 70, 71, weapons inspectors Watson, M., 270, 272 72, 198, 276, 277, 293, United States, 11, 15, 174, Wattenberg, M., 343 297, 299, 300, 303, 189, 196, 199, 200, weapons inspectors, UN, 305, 308, 329, 333 205, 212, 248, 312, 182 ‘transatlantic bridge’, 177, 313, 315, 332 weapons of mass 178, 187, 314 universalism, 140, 301 destruction (WMD), transport, 15, 34, 139, Upton, S., 142 179, 180, 181, 183, 140, 150, 151, 156, Urwin, D., 140 186, 190, 191, 235, 185, 194, 212, 275, 291 utilities, 301 240, 241, 243, 247, 249 Treasury, 11, 17, 18, 19, Webb, P., 17, 23, 58, 63, 20, 22, 32, 33, 34, 105, value for money, 15, 283, 68, 70, 72, 99, 325, 343 146, 155, 251, 252, 292 Weir, S., 122, 134, 225, 253, 254, 255, 256, value-added tax (VAT), 329, 348 271, 274, 277, 284, 297, 301 welfare state, 11, 13–15, 290, 291 van Deth, J. W., 115 229, 292, 294, 313, 330 treatment-centre Venusians, European, Welsh National Assembly, programme, 284 186–7 see National Assembly Trench, A., 143, 158, 344 Verba, S., 115 for Wales Trident, 187, 335 Veritas, 60, 304, 307 Welsh Office, 30, 124, trivialisation of politics, voluntarism, 305 130, 140, 141 312 vote splitting, 4 Wessels, W., 161 trust (in leaders), 9, 10, 11 voting in the House of West Lothian Question, trust, political and social, Commons, 41–5 152, 157, 327 114 Westminster model (WM), trustworthiness, leader’s, Wagner, Richard, 340 38, 117, 131–5, 136, 88 Wakeham Commission, 137, 315, 316–41, 344, tuition fees, University, 29, 50, 330 348 72, 96, 144, 247, 289, Waldegrave, William Wheatcroft, G., 348 306, 307, see also top- (Lord), 124 White House, 20, 185, up fees Waldron, J., 229 192 386 Index

White Paper on asylum, Wilson, Richard (Lord), works councils, 269 205 20, 34 Wright, T., 45, 305, 336 White Paper on Winder, R., 194 Wring, D., xii, 233, 237, immigration, 206 Wintour, Patrick, 236 244, 248 White, S., 301 Wlezien, C., 343 Wyn Jones, Ieuan, 67 Whitehall view of the Wolfowitz, Paul, 189 constitution, 118, 119, women candidates, 13, 73, Yarls Wood, 214 122, 124, 131 74, see also all-women Yom Kippur, 271 Whiteley, P., 69, 70 shortlists Yorkshire and the Whiterock, 113 women’s concerns, 57, 74 Humber, 150, 197 ‘whitewash’, 244 Wood Green, 67 YouGov, 86, 88, 90, 198 Wickham-Jones, M., 345 Wood, D. M., 39, 342 Young, H., 160, 164, Wigley, Dafydd, 67 Woodhead, Chris, 280 344 Williams, Archbishop Woodin, M., 306 younger voters, 94 Rowan, 247 Wooldridge, A., 187, Yugoslavia, 168, 178 Wilson, Harold, 42, 45, 189 300 Woolf, Lord, 128 Zimbabwe, 169, 196