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I YEMEN AS a WEAK STATE: CONTEXTUALIZING the YEMENI

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I YEMEN AS a WEAK STATE: CONTEXTUALIZING the YEMENI YEMEN AS A WEAK STATE: CONTEXTUALIZING THE YEMENI CIVIL WARS OF 1962 AND 2014 IN REGIONAL POLITICS A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY AYġENUR AYGÜL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FEBRUARY 2020 i ii Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. YaĢar Kondakçı Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Oktay Tanrısever Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Meliha AltunıĢık (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür (METU, IR) Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nuri YeĢilyurt (Ankara Uni., UĠ) iii iv PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name : AyĢenur Aygül Signature : iii ABSTRACT YEMEN AS A WEAK STATE: CONTEXTUALIZING THE YEMENI CIVIL WARS OF 1962 AND 2014 IN REGIONAL POLITICS Aygül, AyĢenur M.Sc., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür February 2020, 221 pages This thesis aims to analyse the Yemeni civil wars of 1962 and 2014 by using weak state literature and contextualize them in the regional politics of the 1960s and the 2010s. Yemen has become a battlefield for Egyptian-Saudi rivalry in the Arab Cold War through the 1962-70 Yemeni civil war and for Saudi-Iranian rivalry in the Middle East Cold War because of the Yemeni civil war (2014-). This thesis argues that both of the wars have been results of first and foremost internal Yemeni problems and their roots have gone back to decades; however, Yemen has easily become subject to the regional competition of the 1960s and the 2010s through these wars since it has been a weak state. The Yemeni civil wars have been shaped by mainly two interlinked environments: domestic, and regional. This thesis advocates that Yemeni civil wars have fairly reflected the Middle Eastern politics; so, analyzing regional politics will give a framework to interpret the wars in the regional context. iv Keywords: the 1962-70 Yemeni civil war, the Yemeni civil war (2014-), weak state, regional politics v ÖZ BĠR ZAYIF DEVLET OLARAK YEMEN: 1962 VE 2014 YEMEN ĠÇ SAVAġLARININ BÖLGESEL SĠYASETTE BAĞLAMSALLAġTIRILMASI Aygül, AyĢenur Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası ĠliĢkiler Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür ġubat 2020, 221 Sayfa Bu tez, zayıf devlet literatürünü kullanarak 1962 ve 2014 Yemen iç savaĢlarını analiz etmeyi ve 1960'ların ve 2010'ların bölgesel siyaseti içinde onları bağlamsallaĢtırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Yemen, 1962-70 Yemen iç savaĢı nedeniyle Arap Soğuk SavaĢı'nda Mısır-Suudi rekabeti için ve Yemen iç savaĢı (2014-) nedeniyle Orta Doğu Soğuk SavaĢı'nda Suudi-Ġran rekabeti için bir savaĢ alanı haline gelmiĢtir. Bu tez, her iki savaĢın da ilk ve her Ģeyden önce Yemenin iç sorunlarının sonucu olduğunu ve köklerinin onlarca yıl öncesine gittiği belirtilmektedir. Ancak Yemen, zayıf bir devlet olduğu için bu savaĢlarla 1960'ların ve 2010'ların bölgesel rekabetine kolayca maruz kaldı. Yemen iç savaĢları temel olarak birbirine bağlı iki ortam tarafından ĢekillendirilmiĢtir: iç ve bölgesel. Bu tez, Yemen iç savaĢlarının Ortadoğu siyasetini oldukça iyi yansıttığını; bu nedenle, bölgesel siyaseti analiz etmek, savaĢları bölgesel bağlamda yorumlayacak bir çerçeve sağlayacağını savunmaktadır. vi Anahtar Kelimeler: 1962-70 Yemen iç savaĢı, Yemen iç savaĢı (2014-), zayıf devlet, bölgesel politika vii DEDICATION To My Dear Mother and All Yemeni Children viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I would like to express my utmost gratitude to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür for her patience, advice, criticism, encouragements and insight throughout the research. Her guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. This thesis would have not been possible without her constructive approach. Second of all, besides my thesis advisor, I would like to thank the other members of the Examining Committee: Prof. Dr. Meliha AltunıĢık and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nuri YeĢilyurt for their constructive contributions to thesis. Thirdly, I would like to thank to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Atay Akdevelioğlu for his help both in my bachelor degree and master degree. I greatly appreciate his valuable comments and suggestions to my education life. I would also like to thank to my father Prof. Dr. Recep Aygül and my uncle Dr. Abdurrahman Aygül for their help and support during the period of my research. I would also like to thank to my friends RevĢan Demir, Elif Saz, Shoirakhan Nurdinova, Mobassera Jahan Fatima, Abdulrahman Hassan, Sabbir Hasan, and Mohammed al Aslami for their support. However, my deepest gratitude goes to my dear Yemeni brothers Ahmed Mahmood and Redhwan al Hattabi. Especially Redhwan‘s advice, assistance, comments, and encouragement guided me throughout my research. I am happy and will be always happy to know these two persons and their existences will be always my biggest support to continue studying about Yemen. Most importantly, I thank to my mother who raised me to these days and encouraged me to be a successful and strong woman. Therefore, this thesis is dedicated to my dear mother Havva Aygül who is my reason to live. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ...................................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................... iv ÖZ ......................................................................................................................... vi DEDICATION ................................................................................................... viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................... ix TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................... x LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................. xii LIST OF ABBREVATIONS .............................................................................. xiii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1 1.1. Literature Review of the 1962-70 Yemeni Civil War and the Yemeni Civil War (2014-) .............................................................................................. 2 1.2. Weak State Literature ................................................................................. 9 1.3. Methodology ............................................................................................. 19 1.4. The Contents ............................................................................................. 20 2. THE REGIONAL CONTEXT OF THE 1960S- THE ARAB COLD WAR .. 23 2.1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 23 2.2. Middle Eastern Politics from the End of the Second World War to the Egyptian Revolution of 1952 ........................................................................... 24 2.3. The Middle East Politics during the Arab Cold War ................................ 25 2.4. The 1962-70 Yemeni Civil War and the Collapse of Pan Arabism ......... 40 2.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................ 42 3. THE 1962-70 YEMENI CIVIL WAR ............................................................ 43 3.1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 43 3.2. A History of Coups and Yemeni Politics Since 1940s to Early 1960s ..... 44 3.3. The Yemeni Civil War.............................................................................. 49 3.4. The Six-Day War and End of the War ...................................................... 57 3.5. The Role of External Powers .................................................................... 61 x 3.5.1. Egyptian Role ..................................................................................... 61 3.5.2. Saudi Role .......................................................................................... 66 3.5.3. Israeli Role ......................................................................................... 71 3.5.4. Soviet Role ......................................................................................... 72 3.5.5. United States‘ Role ............................................................................ 76 3.5.6. The British Role ................................................................................. 82 3.6. Conclusion ................................................................................................ 84 4. THE MIDDLE EASTERN POLITICS AFTER THE 2003 IRAQI WAR ..... 86 4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 86 4.2. The Middle Eastern Politics From 2003 to the Arab Uprisings ............... 87 4.3. The Middle Eastern Politics in the
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