Report on Findings from the Awash River Basin

Mid-programme synthesis Report on findings from the Awash River basin

November 2020

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 1 10/11/2020 13:58 Who we are

REACH is a global research programme funded by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) to improve water security for the poor by delivering world-class science that improves policy and practice. REACH is led by the University of Oxford in partnership with a global network of collaborators:

• UNICEF This article should be • Bangladesh University of Engineering and referenced as: Technology REACH (2020) Report on findings • University of Nairobi from the Awash River basin. Mid- • Water and Land Resource Centre, Addis Ababa Programme Synthesis. University University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. • International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh © University of Oxford 2020 • International Food Policy Research Institute School of Geography and the • International Water Association Environment, South Parks Road, • IRC International Water and Sanitation Centre Oxford OX1 3QY, • Skat Foundation hosting the Rural Water United Kingdom Supply Network • University of Dhaka www.reachwater.org.uk

Cover photo: Alice Chautard/REACH

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 2 10/11/2020 13:58 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Who we are

REACH is a long-term research programme, Some of the key achievements detailed in funded by UK Aid from the FCDO, that this report include: is working to improve water security for 10 million people across Africa and Asia. In collaboration with AwBDO, REACH We work through science-practitioner researchers have addressed gaps in partnerships in close collaboration with the Awash basin’s Water Evaluation and governments towards transformative Planning (WEAP) tool. This has improved the change in the water sector for the reduction usability of the tool for operational water of poverty and inequalities. allocation. This is a critical contribution to moving towards greater water security in the REACH has been working in the Awash River basin. basin in Ethiopia since 2015 to improve water security with long-term stakeholder Future climate projections show an increase engagement. We have been working closely in water deficiency in all seasons and with the Awash Basin Development Office for parts of the basin, due to a projected (AwBDO) as well as other departments of the increase in temperature and decrease Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity in precipitation. This decrease in water (MoWIE), and UNICEF. This report provides availability will increase water stress in the an update on work to date, and introduces basin, further threatening water security for our programme of research from 2020-2024. different sectors.

Figure 1. The Awash River Basin (source: REACH)

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 3 10/11/2020 13:58 There are opportunities for mainstreaming the INCA water quality dynamic modelling equity in river basin management. REACH software tool, REACH researchers have researchers have identified key bottlenecks contributed to a more comprehensive preventing the realisation of equitable understanding of flows of pollutants and water security in the Awash. This offers a how they vary in the Awash. foundational basis for developing more equitable institutional and governance Collaborative water allocation, where all arrangements for water security. water users are included in water allocation decisions, can improve water access and There is an important relationship between equity in the basin. Water allocation is land degradation and water security. critical for sustainable management of water Researchers in the REACH programme have resources in a basin with rapidly growing been working to understand and model competition. Without effective management, sediment loads in the Awash River with climate variability will reduce productivity a view to understanding potential policy and threaten food security. interventions. Studies in hydro-economics reveal that In the Upper Awash basin, uncontrolled competing water security outcomes in the abstraction from the Upper Awash aquifer Awash River Basin require management of will likely affect river flow. REACH is engaged distributional risks and benefits. REACH in novel groundwater science to improve researchers have explored the multi- understanding of groundwater and sectoral and distributional economic groundwater-surface water interactions in impacts of rainfall shocks and the economic the basin. implications of irrigation for smallholder farmers across the basin. The water quality of the river varies across the year from season to season. Using

Credit: Alice Chautard/REACH

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 4 10/11/2020 13:58 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction �� 6

Research Activities 2015-2020 �� 7

Improved water allocation tools �� 7

Novel groundwater science �� 9

Future climate trends �� 11

Reducing inequities in water security �� 16

Land degradation and water security �� 20

Understanding water quality dynamics �� 22

Collaborative water allocation and institutional clarity �� 25

Advancements in hydro-economics �� 27

Future Research Themes 2020-2024 �� 29

Other REACH Publications �� 31

Acknowledgements �� 31

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 5 10/11/2020 13:58 INTRODUCTION

The REACH programme aims to generate social arrangements that govern water improvements in water security for the poor security. by working at the interface of water security, risk and poverty research and practice. We The purpose of this mid-programme recognise that water security has multiple report is to provide an overview of REACH’s priorities that can compete for scarce research in the Awash River basin since resources. As such, our work simultaneously the beginning of the programme in considers water security outcomes of 2015. The findings in this report span the resource sustainability, inclusive services physical and social sciences, contributing and sustainable growth, and the trade-offs to the knowledge base and illuminating on between them. We take an interdisciplinary, sustainable growth pathways. We draw out risk-based research approach which is vital the key policy implications in different areas for tackling the many challenges facing water of the work so far. resources and the water sector. REACH’s research is ongoing until 2024 and The Awash River basin has been studied for future work will build on our findings so far decades; one of the earlier surveys of the and continue to address key challenges in Awash was conducted by the UN Food and four thematic areas: 1) climate resilience, Agricultural Organisation (FAO) in 1965 to, 2) water governance and institutions, “appraise the resources of the basin in land 3) inequalities in water security and 4) and water, and their potential development.” water quality. By working across science- Much has changed since then: the basin is practitioner partnerships, in collaboration now critical for the national economy and with local stakeholders, our REACH findings supports the livelihoods of 21 million people. will continue to contribute policy-relevant Agriculture, industries and urban areas have scientific knowledge to address these areas expanded to the extent that demand on and bring about transformational change. surface water now outweighs the available resources. Deteriorating water quality, alongside the impacts of climate change, are likely to intensify the existing challenges in the basin.

Throughout the REACH programme we have been steered by, and worked with, AwBDO, MoWIE as well as regional water bureaus, and UNICEF. We have designed our research to inform the decisions that are being made in the Awash basin, including work to improve water allocation decision- making tools, increase climate information, understand landscape changes, improve groundwater science, instigate water quality modelling and unpack the institutional and

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 6 10/11/2020 13:58 RESEARCH ACTIVITIES 2015-2020

1. Improved water allocation tools

Appropriate and context-specific allocation • Recreation of sub-catchment boundaries tools can go some way to planning for future using finer resolution digital elevation changes in the basin, ensuring equitable model outcomes and linking surface water and • Better representation of land use/cover groundwater management. The Awash Basin in the model Development Office (AwBDO) developed • Calibration of model parameters a WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) • Simplification of demand nodes tool for hydrological modelling and water • Inclusion of groundwater sources and allocation between demand sectors across realistic future climate scenarios all woredas in the basin. The AwBDO WEAP • Addition of agricultural water demand model has a detailed estimate of woreda- below Koka dam. level water demand and uses in-situ These changes improve functionality of hydroclimate data. the tool, support better management of water resources in the basin, and help to In collaboration with the AwBDO, REACH identify where water access is restricted for researchers have expanded the model downstream users. design to fill operational gaps. The model was improved with:

Figure 2. Basin and sub-basin delineation of the Awash River basin. The white areas do not contribute surface flow to the river

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 7 10/11/2020 13:58 Improvements to the WEAP model Integration of MODFLOW

We delineated the Awash basin and the sub- MODFLOW is a three-dimensional finite catchments using the 30m HydroSHED DEM difference groundwater flow model. While data which is freely available from https:// groundwater can be included in WEAP, hydrosheds.cr.usgs.gov/dataavail.php. The it does not allow feedback that can help delineation reveals that portions of the basin understand the pressure abstractions do not contribute surface flow to the main place on groundwater. REACH has linked river (white areas in Figure 2). MODFLOW with WEAP to provide a novel configuration that integrates surface To simplify the presentation of the model water-groundwater (SW-GW) resources. and to make the model run faster, we This MODFLOW-WEAP integrated tool aggregated the demand nodes from is designed to support analysis of both woredas to sub-catchments; each sub- surface water and groundwater allocation catchment now has one demand node. The problems involving complicated hydrological, demand node represents the aggregated environmental and socioeconomic demand for all woredas located in the sub- constraints and conflicting management catchment. The new simplified schematic objectives. Most importantly, the integrated diagram is shown in Figure 3. Water loss model can be used as an active tool to for domestic demand due to leakage and support water management decisions waste of distributed networks is set at 20% incorporating the continuously changing of the domestic water demand. This is based natural and anthropogenic stresses. on the expected efficiency of water supply networks for year 2020. The changes to The WEAP-MODFLOW integration can be WEAP have been more fully reported by used as a water management decision Hirpa (2019). support tool. The tool is being used

Figure 3. The schematics of the new WEAP setup.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 8 10/11/2020 13:58 to evaluate the impact of scenarios of natural and anthropogenic change and/or Research output demand and supply side stresses on both Hirpa, F. A. 2019. Water allocation in the surface water and groundwater resources. Awash River basin: Advancing the Awash Basin By developing demand and supply side Authority WEAP model, REACH Research Report. scenarios, water management aspects which require immediate interventions can be suggested. The outcomes of these scenarios are discussed at more length in the following section.

2. Novel groundwater science

Hydrogeologists in the REACH team points are located in Akaki catchment, have been working towards a better where Addis Ababa city and most industries understanding of groundwater resources, are located, which makes Akaki catchment flows, recharge and surface water linkages the most stressed aquifer in the basin. In in the Awash River basin. There is now Akaki catchment, more than a 10-metre more information about the groundwater groundwater level decline is predicted potential, the natural and anthropogenic in 2030. The impact in the groundwater stresses and the likely climate change storage is not only because of groundwater impacts on groundwater in the Upper Awash abstraction for domestic water supply, but basin. the sum effect of noticeably increasing abstraction for industrial uses. Upper Awash basin groundwater potential Natural and anthropogenic stresses on SW and GW resources in the Upper Groundwater in the Upper Awash basin Awash basin moves from North-North West to South- Southwest in the basin. There is about 330 Population projection scenarios indicate Mm3 net annual groundwater contribution that an additional 210Mm3 water will be to the Upper Awash river, making the Upper required for the Akaki catchment in 2030, Awash a gaining river. This illuminates the mostly for Addis Ababa. For Melka Kunture importance of the groundwater system (Holeta, Teji, Asgori, Tulubolo, Ginchi towns), in maintaining the flow of the Awash Mojo (Mojo, Bishoftu and Dukem towns) River and reservoirs storage. There is net and Koka catchments (Koka town) domestic contribution of the groundwater to the river consumptions, 16Mm3, 11Mm3 and 6Mm3 while the river contributes nearly 23 Mm3 of additional water will be required in 2030 of water to the groundwater. This is based from 2015, respectively. on convergence evidence from base flow separation, HYDRUS 1D and groundwater There are large volumes of unaccounted for flow modelling recharge estimation water in major towns in the Upper Awash. techniques. The minimum average water loss due to leakage is 13% with only three functional Most of the existing groundwater abstraction boreholes (in Koka). The maximum average

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 9 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 4. Unaccounted for abstracted groundwater resources in the major urban settlements in Upper Awash Basin

loss estimate is about 30% in Addis Impact of climate change on Ababa with more than 160 functional groundwater in the Upper Awash River boreholes (Figure 4). The domestic water basin demand in the Upper Awash basin is all from groundwater resources. Therefore, The climate conditions for the baseline significant urban water losses due to leakage period (2005 to 2019) and for the scenario from poorly maintained infrastructure is period (2020 to 2030) have been applied exacerbating challenges related to water on the WEAP-MODFLOW link to assess the allocation. Efforts should be made to impact of temperature and precipitation minimise these water losses. change scenarios on future groundwater availability. Groundwater discharge flux to Most of the towns/cities in the UA basin the river will be relatively higher compared pump only for 4-8Hrs in a day due to to the baseline climate scenarios in dry unavailability of energy/electric power. months. Streamflow simulation under Hence, BHs are serving below their designed different climate scenarios resulted in a potential as a result of continuous power variable response of different land use-land interruption (Table 1). Which underlines cover for similar climate change scenarios. role of energy availability to enhance Groundwater discharge to the river is more groundwater use for domestic water sensitive to climate change in urban settings demand, especially for rural community. than in agricultural areas.

Table 1. Comparison of actual abstraction and design capacity of boreholes for selected towns in Upper Awash Basin

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 10 10/11/2020 13:58 KEY FINDINGS POLICY NOTE

• Around 1.12 billion m3 of water recharges the Upper Awash aquifer A focus on tackling water loss in system annually. Nearly 360 million infrastructure systems will have benefits m3 of water gets abstracted each year, for groundwater management and efficient mainly for domestic and industrial use. uses.

• Uncontrolled abstraction from the Upper Awash aquifer will likely affect the flow in the rivers. Research Output • In Melka Kunture, Mojo and Koka catchments, water demand can be Kebede, S. and Zewdu, S. 2019. Use of 222Rn satisfied by additional groundwater and δ18O-δ2H Isotopes in detecting the origin supply schemes without significantly of water and in quantifying groundwater affecting the groundwater resource. inflow rates in an alarmingly growing lake, Ethiopia. Water MDPI, 11, 2591. • Population projection scenarios indicate greatly increasing groundwater demands in the Upper Awash – doubling for Addis Ababa from 2015 to 2030.

• By minimizing water loss by half of the average reported, up to 6M m3 of unmet water demand can be recovered per month in the Addis Ababa water supply system.

3. Future climate trends

To improve water security in an era of Model evaluation for smarter climate climate change, it is necessary to understand information future climate trends and their impact on the availability of water resources. We used a model evaluation approach to REACH researchers have been working to determine which future projections to use, understand future trends in climate in the and how to understand them as seen in Awash basin to support decision-making. Figure 5. We have been trying to understand They have quantified the potential impact the physical processes which influence of climate change on water availability in the biases in the period between the two the Awash basin in different seasons1 and main rainy seasons, and are examining explored how temperature will change in the how moisture flux into the region varies coming century. to compare how models represent the climate and moisture sources. This work will 1 The future water availability was estimated as the also allow us to provide a better physical difference between precipitation and potential context for future changes, especially in this evapotranspiration projections using the representative marginal climate zone. concentration pathway (RCP8.5) emission scenarios after the climate change signals from the climate models are transferred to the observed data.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 11 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 5. Annual cycles of monthly averaged rain rates (mm/day) in the Awash basin from atmosphere-only AMIP models. Observational climatologies are shown in dashed lines, while individual model climatologies are shown as thin translucent lines and the ensemble average is shown as a thick solid line. All rainfall was masked for the Awash basin and for the period 1981- 2005.

The impact of climate change on future KEY FINDINGS water availability

Three climate models, selected from the • Across the basin, there are increasing above evaluation, from Coupled Models trends in temperature in the June and Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) March-May periods. This increasing were used to explore future changes trend in temperatures is occurring in precipitation in three future periods during what is the hottest and driest (2006–2030, 2031–2055, and 2056–2080). period for the middle and lower basin The models were selected based on woredas. their performance in capturing historical precipitation characteristics. The baseline • Three models (MPI-ESM-MR, HadGEM- period used for comparison is 1981–2005. AO, GFDL-CM3) were found to perform well in the Awash and NW Ethiopia in This study presents the most probable revealing basin-wide climate averages projections for the impact of climate change but miss features that can reveal the on precipitation in the Awash, using a local climate because they are too methodological approach based on selecting coarse. We are working to understand best performing GCMs followed by a change the physical reasons why models can’t factor method that accounted for sampling reproduce the local climate, and this uncertainty due to the choice of periods. information will be useful for assessing model skill in future model ensembles. Results for the mid-future period (2031- 2055) (Figures 6-8)

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 12 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 6. Precipitation change factors for April to September months for the near-term period, 2006–2030

Figure 7. Precipitation change factors for April to September months for the far-term period, 2056–2080

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 13 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 8. Precipitation change factors for January to March and October to December months for mid-term period, 2031–2055

Precipitation change factor Future temperature projections We have explored future temperature • The change in precipitation in the MAM in the basin since future projections of (March-April-May) season has wider temperature are much more robust than range projections of changes in rainfall patterns. • March precipitation is projected to Figure 9. shows 25-year June temperature increase significantly in the entire basin distributions from the full CMIP5 model by more than 50% ensemble from the atmosphere-only AMIP, fully coupled Historical, and future RCP4.5, • April precipitation increases in the and RCP8.5 simulations. eastern basin by 10% to 40% while the western parts remains the same

• May precipitation show decrease in western part and increase in the eastern basin

• July precipitation shows slight increase in the order of 10%

• The lowlands get higher increases in precipitation in Aug and Sep

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 14 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 9. June temperature distributions from models in their Historical coupled, atmosphere- only (AMIP) runs, and future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the Awash basin. Historical scenarios are for the 1981-2005 period and future scenarios are for the 2075-2099 period. The ERA-Interim reanalysis June temperature distribution is shown for comparison.

KEY FINDINGS POLICY NOTE

• Generally, the climate projections It is critical that climate resilience is showed that the current challenge mainstreamed in water planning for the of the Awash basin in terms of water Awash River basin, recognising a hotter stress is something that will be future with less available water and how intensified under a warming climate. this will increase competition for water • The projections for the future three resources. periods show an increase in water deficiency in all seasons and for parts of the basin, due to a projected Research Outputs increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This decrease in water Dyer, E, Washington, R and Teferi Taye, M. availability will increase water stress 2019. Evaluating the CMIP5 ensemble in in the basin, further threatening water Ethiopia: Creating a reduced ensemble for security for different sectors, which are rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia currently increasing their investments and the Awash basin. International Journal in the basin such as irrigation. Climatology, 1– 22.

• Climate models agree on future Hirpa, F. A., Alfieri, L., Lees, T., Peng, J., Dyer, E., warming in the basin for most models & Dadson, S. J. 2019. Streamflow response to there is over a 4 degree change by the climate change in the Greater Horn of Africa. end of the century. Climatic Change, 156(3), 341–363. • From the precipitation projections, June will be drier during the far-term period Taye, M. T., Dyer, E., Charles, K. J. & Hirons, L. C. while the near and mid-term projected 2020. Potential predictability of the Ethiopian a slight increase in precipitation. summer rains: understanding local variations However, since temperature is and their implications for water management increasing throughout the future decisions. Science of The Total Environment, projections, water availability will 142604. remain a challenge this month.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 15 10/11/2020 13:58 Taye, M. T., Dyer, E., Hirpa, F. A., & Charles, Ethiopia’s future is tied to water – a vital K. 2018. Climate change impact on water yet threatened resource in a changing resources in the Awash basin, Ethiopia. Water climate. Dr Meron Teferi Taye and Dr Ellen (Switzerland), 10(11), 1–16. Dyer, August 2019.

How can we increase capacity for water- related climate adaptation? Lessons and opportunities from Ethiopian river basins. Dr Ellen Dyer, REACH Blog, October 2019.

What we know, don’t know and need to know about future East African Climate | 4 September cross-project meeting. Dr Ellen Dyer, Dr Laura Burgin and Dr Linda Hirons, October 2019.

4. Reducing inequities in water security

There are opportunities for mainstreaming the dry season it is more difficult equity in river basin management in Ethiopia because we have to bring water for but this will require political commitment the cattle as well. In the dry season and addressing institutional challenges. the distance is further. Often, we There are stark inequities in water security go at night to collect water. We in the Awash River basin that exist between don’t know which sources will be water user groups (agriculture, industry, available... There are times when urban, rural), upstream-downstream there is no water and we come back inequities as well as within woredas and with an empty barrel and we are communities. thirsty. It happens at some point every year.” Intermittent and unsafe government (Male farmer, upper Awash basin, December water supplies 2018)

In general, formal government water supplies were found to be intermittent and Inequities between water user groups of poor quality. This was reported by urban water utilities, rural water service providers, With our research, we explored the inequity rural communities and private industries of water security between different water that were accessing water from government user groups. Groundwater development water supplies. Households reported is driven more by private investment accessing water from multiple sources and (industrialization, flower farms) than human those located further from waterpoints had needs. Figure 10 shows how a small number to spend more time travelling to access of boreholes are dedicated to urban water water. supply compared to the total number of boreholes in the Upper Awash basin. “We travel around to many different sources to find water… During

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 16 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 10. Comparison of available boreholes dedicated for urban water supply with total number of boreholes in the Upper Awash basin.

Figure 11. Difference in experiences of water-related risks by rural communities across the basin

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 17 10/11/2020 13:58 Upstream-downstream inequities Institutional drivers of inequities

In the arid downstream, rural dwellers were Water allocation decisions are difficult experiencing water scarcity most of the year. in a basin with different water users and The average annual rainfall in the study development priorities. The national water site was around 200mm. In this district, policy mandates that drinking water is the women and men reported travelling up to highest investment priority. Water allocation 10 hours to fetch water for domestic use at for irrigation, particularly for the state- certain times of the year. These downstream owned sugarcane farms is a high priority for communities were experiencing far greater water allocation planning in the Awash basin health risks from water fetching than those due to their important role in the national upstream – reporting extreme fatigue, thirst economy. Juggling demand between these and physical pain. sectors results in inequities.

Gendered inequalities within Water pricing in the basin is highly communities inequitable. Industrial water users pay 3ETB/1000m3 of (untreated) water that Men, women and children are affected in they use. (0.0001 USD/m3) whereas a rural different ways by water insecurity. We found household pays 0.5 ETB/20l of (untreated) that men experienced the emotional burden water that they use (0.87 USD/m3). It is of being the household ‘provider’ when important to note that, industrial water climate shocks resulted in crop destruction users do incur their own infrastructure or loss of livestock. Male informants development and maintenance costs but reported feeling ‘disturbed’ and ‘great this does not negate that fact that rural worry’. Women are primarily responsible households are paying 8700 times more for for managing household water and their access to water. workload greatly increases during floods and droughts. Children were vulnerable Biophysical drivers of inequities to multiple risks and often parents were burdened with deciding how best to protect Exposure to water risks from flood and their children during climate shocks. drought and access to safe reliable drinking water are driven, in part, by location in the Socio-cultural drivers of inequities basin. This is because of the proximity of water managers to available water resources Culturally defined gender roles in Ethiopia and the quality of those resources as well contribute to how water security is unequal as the climate conditions. This means between men, women and children. that water security requires multiple It is important that this is taken into interventions at different scales. consideration when seeking to address unequal water insecurity. There are different climate stories across the basin (Figure 12). We have examined Less wealthy water users face greater the climates of three woredas in the upper, challenges in becoming water secure. Within middle, and lower parts of the basin. In communities, this means that households Dubti, in the lower basin, rainfall rates more affected by poverty have worse access during the two rainy seasons (March-May to water. Across the basin, we find that and July-September) are highly variable, private companies with high capacity for while the near zero rain rates in June are not investment have better water access. variable. Fentale, in the middle-basin has a similar bimodal rainfall climatology, but

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 18 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 12. Distributions of seasonal rain rates (mm/day) showing the seasonal climatology of rainfall in three woredas in the Awash basin, using the merged gauge and satellite rainfall dataset CHIRPS2.0 from 1981- 2018 (top row). Linear temperature trends (C/year) for the same woredas from 1981-2018 using the ERA5 reanalysis from the ECMWF (bottom row).

has less variable rain rates during the two rainy seasons. Contrasting these with Bora KEY FINDINGS in the upper basin, the rainfall climatology is unimodal (having a different scale of • Across seven urban water utilities, all rainfall) with dry periods only from October- reported intermittent access to water, February. mostly due to infrastructure failure or a lack of electricity. Land-cover change from the expanding Lake Beseka varied across the basin and • In most rural and urban cases, water also within woredas, according to place. was not being treated before being In the middle basin, the expanding lake distributed to community members, Beseka was covering land, limiting land- despite dangerously high levels of based livelihoods. Moreover, the lake was contaminants including fluoride, and expanding to cover the urban water supply unknown levels of pathogens. infrastructure for Metehara town, the capital • Across water users in the basin, we urban area of Fentale woreda. This was found that private industrial water resulting in challenges for the urban water users enjoy high levels of water utility to deliver safe and reliable water security and rural communities are the supplies to urban dwellers. least water secure.

• There is considerable unequal development of groundwater resources in the Upper Awash basin.

• There are socio-cultural, institutional and biophysical drivers of inequities in water security in the Awash.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 19 10/11/2020 13:58 Research Outputs POLICY NOTE Korzenevica, M., 2019. Emerging themes on considering water equity. REACH Research It is important to ensure that the costs Brief. and benefits of water access are equitably distributed between private, public and Grasham, C. and Charles, K. in review in Water community water users and that this is Alternatives Embedding risk and emphasising explicitly addressed in policy. natural systems in hydrosocial studies.

Towards establishing a ‘risk threshold’ in the Awash river basin, Ethiopia. Dr Catherine Grasham, REACH Blog, July 2018

5. Land degradation and water security

Land degradation due to soil erosion is REACH programme have been working to widespread in the Awash River basin. This understand and model sediment loads in the is evident from constraints placed on the Awash River with a view to understanding operation of various irrigation canals and the potential policy interventions. rapid decline of reservoir storage capacity, such as that of Koka dam. Researchers in the

Figure 13. Inter-annual variability of precipitation, surface runoff and sediment outflow in the Awash river

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 20 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 14. Sediment yield distribution over the Awash river sub-basins

KEY FINDINGS • This value ranges from very high (169 t/ha/yr) in areas with slopes over 50 • There is a strong relationship between percent and annual rainfall of over inter-annual variability of precipitation, 1000 mm, to negligible erosion in much surface runoff and sediment outflow in of the lowlands where slope is flat and the basin as shown in Figure 13. rainfall is low. • The weighted average annual basin • The weighted average rate of soil specific sediment loading, calculated erosion is highest (8 t/ha/yr) in using MUSLE (modified universal degraded landscapes which account 39 soil loss equation) over a 33-year percent of the land use/land cover in simulation period, was 4 tonnes/ the basin. hectare/year. • Sediment load in the Awash River varies across the basin (Figure 14.) and that from the highlands is particularly problematic. • There is over 44 million tons of soil in the river course deposited in reservoirs, wetlands, riverbanks and irrigation canals.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 21 10/11/2020 13:58 Reserach Output POLICY NOTE Edward, K., Mekonnen, D., Tiruneh, S. and Ringer, C. 2019. Sustainable Land Efforts towards the rehabilitation of Management and its Effects on Water degraded landscapes, particularly in Security and Poverty Evidence from steep slope areas where the rate of soil a Watershed Intervention Program in erosion is in excess of the tolerable limit, Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 01811. is vital for improving water security. IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute).

6. Understanding water quality dynamics

Water quality is a key attribute of water Ababa are showing signs of increasing resource systems. Water of good quality contamination by chemicals, including is essential for people, livestock and nitrate, and there is an increasing industry. The UN Sustainable Development concentration of heavy metal pollution, Goal 6.3 aims to improve water quality by coliform and pathogen pollution in the water reducing pollution, eliminating dumping of Aba Samuel reservoir and its tributaries. and minimizing the release of hazardous chemicals to halve the proportion of The Akaki River (upper basin) is the most untreated wastewater. polluted river due to the presence of industries and urban areas, with water Water quality in watersheds is directly quality worse than the permissible limits affected by vegetative cover, agricultural, set by National Environmental Quality and other land management practices, as Standards. well as basin-wide discharges of urban, industrial and rural waste. The basin’s water There is a concern around the release of resources are vulnerable to industrial and saline waters into the Awash river from domestic waste discharge. Additionally, solid natural saline springs or from irrigation waste dumped in open spaces often ends up water, particularly with regard to the in rivers during storm runoff. expanding Lake Beseka. The lake water was highly saline in the 1960s having an EC Background of Water Quality in the value of about 71400μS/cm in 1961. Salinity Awash levels have fallen since then, however, the water quality of Lake Beseka is not yet The dynamics of water quality in the Awash recommended for irrigation or drinking. River basin are complex as chemistry derives from the geology and soils of the river basin Using INCA to model water quality as well as pollutants entering the river from dynamics diffuse agricultural sources as well as point sources from industry or domestic waste. In the REACH programme, we have been modelling water quality in the AWASH River Aquifers in and around the city of Addis system using the INCA suite of models

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 22 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 15. Flow simulation and observed flows along the AWASH at Reach 4 downstream of Addis Ababa from 2005-2014

to simulate the dynamics of river flow, nutrients (nitrate, ammonia, total and Typical model simulations for the flow, soluble phosphorus) and salinity. The INCA nutrients and salinity are shown in Figures model is a process-based model which 15-17. The flows in Figure 15 show high simulates the main processes related with flow conditions from June to September rainfall-runoff transformation and the cycle each year and these high flows will flush and fate of several compounds, such as pollutants off the land’s surface into the river nitrate, ammonium and phosphorus. INCA system. For example, fertilizers applied to gives high quality estimates of the diffuse arable land and irrigation areas will runoff sources of pollution and considers whole and create high runoff loads of nitrogen, catchments using the processes to scale up phosphorus and ammonia in streams and from small to large catchments. rivers. However, in the low flow periods, the effluents from urban areas will be less The nitrogen, phosphorus and sediments diluted and hence concentrations will also sub-models of INCA reproduce the water rise. quality concentrations driven by the main sources (atmospheric deposition, fertilisers, Figure 16 shows the flows, soluble runoff, wastewater, etc.) to the river. phosphorus and the total phosphorus as Two forms of nitrogen are considered as well as the peaks of phosphorus during the state variables: nitrate and ammonium. low flow periods. As with salinity (chlorine The most important soil processes are (Cl-)), the high concentrations of P also included, such as denitrification, nitrification, occur during the low flow periods. Figure immobilisation, mineralisation and leaching 17 illustrates the build-up of salinity down towards the aquifer. Nitrification and the river system where the observed mean denitrification processes in the streams are Cl- concentrations increased from 14 mg/L also taken into account. The phosphorus at Reach 5 to 45 mg/L at Reach 16, in the sub-model incorporates the main sources lower Awash. Other serious pollution of phosphorus, both diffuse (fertilisers) problems in the Awash catchment are heavy and point (wastewater), as well as the main metals downstream of tanneries, with high processes involving phosphorus, such as concentrations observed in the river system. sorption/desorption. The phosphorus sub- model of the INCA model also includes the sediment equations.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 23 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 16. Flow and Phosphorus simulation along the Awash River below Addis Ababa from 2005-2014

Figure 17. Comparison of modelled (blue) and observed (purple) chlorine concentrations at four reaches along the Awash River. The solid black dots show the mean concentrations of Cl- at each location

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 24 10/11/2020 13:58 KEY FINDINGS POLICY NOTE

• There is a high flow season from June We recommend improved data sharing to September each year and this between stakeholders to ensure the drives flushing of nutrients from the ongoing management of water quality land into the river. since multiple Ministries are involved in • In low flow periods, point sources water quality data collection, regulation dominate the water quality with peak and management for both drinking water values of nitrogen, ammonia, and quality and pollution control. phosphorus. • With salinity (as simulated by chloride), the high concentrations Research Output also occur during the low flow periods, but the salinity builds up Yirma, Y. A. and Jin, L. 2020. Impact of Lake as the water moves down the river Beseka on the Water Quality of Awash River, system. Ethiopia. American Journal of Water Resources, 8 (1), 21-30

7. Collaborative water allocation and institutional clarity

Water scarcity has intensified the and regional level, as well as at the local competition between water users in the level. Awash basin. Here we show how a basin- scale collaborative water allocation scheme Collaborative water allocation, where all can be used to improve water access for in water users are included in water allocation the basin, increasing climate resilience for decisions, can improve water access and different sectors. equity in the basin. As can be seen in Figure 18, there are surface water demand gaps. Collaborative water allocation These gaps become wider during drought periods, highlighting the need for additional Organisations must work together and water sources such as groundwater. clearly understand their roles within the institutional make-up. The Awash is a During periods of water shortage limiting transregional basin meaning that the overall irrigation water abstraction to 75% improves responsibility for managing the river’s water supply for several woredas in the waters is legally mandated to the federal middle and lower Awash (Figure 19). Awash Basin Development Office (AwBDO). However, there are several woredas that However, the regions have a constitutional may not benefit from the improved surface right to develop water resources within water allocation because they do not have their administrative boundaries. Therefore, physical access to the Awash River. responsibility for water resources management in the Awash basin is shared The constitutional and legal arrangements by government stakeholders at the federal for managing water in the Awash demand

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 25 10/11/2020 13:58 Figure 18. Total number of months (during Figure 19.Water access can improve for 1983-2012) with at least 75% total water several woredas (compared to Figure 18) by demand satisfied using surface water supply. supplementing with groundwater sources (Groundwater data largely unavailable.) and capping agricultural water use.

collaborative water allocation and institutional clarity. REACH research reveals that this is feasible and has identified 3 key KEY FINDINGS areas for intervention in each case. • Surface water alone is not sufficient Institutional clarity to meet current water demands in the Awash River basin. Broadly, we have found that federal and • Crucially for industrial pollution, regional water managers have similar private companies were unsure of the values and priorities for water resources wastewater treatment standards that development but there are barriers to co- they were required to meet. ordination. In interviews with the AwBDO, Oromia and Afar regional Water, Mineral • The AwBDO have a policy that in a and Energy Bureaus, we found that shared drought year, irrigation upstream values include: 1) good water quality; 2) should be reduced to allow water to successful management of floods and flow downstream to prevent drought droughts and 3) safe water access for urban risks across the basin. However, and rural communities. private, industrial water users reported not reducing their abstraction during There is a strong appetite for reduced drought years or being asked to do so. industrial pollution as well as better flood • The main responsibility for drought and drought management across the basin. preparedness and prevention However, stakeholders and water users are institutionally lies in the Disaster unclear of their roles and responsibilities. Planning and Preparedness We have found a lack of institutional clarity Commission. However, more can, and around roles and responsibilities for: 1) should, be done by water managers reducing industrial pollution, 2) drought management and 3) flood prevention.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 26 10/11/2020 13:58 to plan for water allocation during POLICY NOTE drought years. To achieve water security, closer • There is no clear, legal mandate for collaboration and greater institutional who is responsible for investing in clarity is needed in 3 key areas: 1) flood mitigation resulting in inaction protecting water quality; 2) successful due to lack of allocated funding and management of floods and droughts and collaboration 3) safe water access for urban and rural communities.

8. Advancements in hydro-economics

Understanding hydro-economics in Macroeconomic impacts of three the Awash basin is critical for meeting different climate scenarios sustainable growth targets. REACH researchers have explored the multi- A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) sectoral and distributional economic model was used to simulate how rainfall impacts of rainfall shocks and the economic shocks propagate through the wider implications of irrigation and rainfed economy of the basin under three different agriculture for smallholder farmers across climate change scenarios: 1) rainfall the basin. decrease, 2) rainfall increase and 3) spatial redistribution of rainfall.

Figure 20. Macroeconomic impacts by sector of three different climate scenarios measured as deviations from the baseline GDP (2011–2015).

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 27 10/11/2020 13:58 The Economics of Irrigation Water POLICY NOTE An extensive household survey was conducted with farmers cultivating There are opportunities for improving rainfed and irrigated small plots in five economic efficiency in agriculture across districts which are hotspots of smallholder the basin which is urgent given the agriculture in the basin: Akaki, Adama, likelihood of decreased future rainfall with Fentale, Amibara and Asaita (from upstream climate change. to downstream). This survey was conducted to explore the economics of irrigation water vis-à-vis rainfed agriculture.

Research Outputs KEY FINDINGS Borgomeo E., Vadheim B., Woldeyes F. B., Alamirew T., Tamru S., Charles K. J., Kebede • The basin’s economy and expanding S., Walker O. 2017. The distributional and agricultural sector are highly multi-sectoral impacts of rainfall shocks: vulnerable to the impacts of rainfall Evidence from computablen general shocks. equilibrium modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Ecological Economics, 146, 621-632. • A rainfall decrease scenario could lead to a 5% decline in the basin’s Vivid Economics. 2016. Water resources GDP, with agricultural GDP standing and extreme events in the Awash basin: to drop by as much as 10%. economic effects and policy implications, • The economic returns from irrigation Report prepared for the Global Green Growth vary across the basin: the opportunity Institute. cost of water use in the lower part of the basin is higher than in the Too much, too little: the economic impacts upper part of the basin since rainfed of rainfall availability and variability on agriculture is hardly practiced in the the Awash basin. Dr Tena Alimarew and Dr former. Edoardo Borgomeo, REACH Blog, January 2018. • Irrigation expansion must go hand- in-hand with investment in access to Water-related extremes and economic agricultural inputs as well as other shocks in Ethiopia. REACH Blog, August livelihood options. Any investments 2016. in irrigation expansion must consider its ramifications in other parts of the basin.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 28 10/11/2020 13:58 FUTURE RESEARCH THEMES 2020-2024 POLICY NOTE

Climate Water Resilience Quality Climate resilience can broadly be described Improving water quality in the environment as the ability to absorb stress, externally and for drinking is not a simple technical forced by a changing climate or variability challenge, but a complex problem that and to adapt to this externally forced includes aspects of science, politics, stress, in a sustainable way. In REACH, we behaviour and planning. The water quality have been working to understand how to that people are exposed to is a result of strengthen climate resilience in the Awash. range of factors, from the natural occurrence of contaminants and pollution sources, We will continue interdisciplinary research design and management of the water access and capacity building activities to move infrastructure, and hygiene behaviour. towards climate resilient water security in the basin. Understanding the historical Sustainable pathways for urban and and current climate can be useful anchors industrial growth. Expanding urban for building climate resilience within the growth and industrial development are basin. However, the information required a growing threat to the provision of safe to build climate resilience goes beyond the drinking water, and to ecosystems. Water understanding of hazards. managers often struggle with a lack of information on water quality hazards, due Climate communication. Water managers to limited resources for monitoring the in government and non-government range of potential threats. In this research, organisations have developed deep we will expand river, groundwater and expertise relevant for their roles through wastewater monitoring, using results to study, training and experience. However, inform modelling, highlighting sources these do not always include opportunities of contamination and impact pathways to integrate an understanding of climate to guide targeted policy and regulatory and the likely impacts on the water systems responses at different scales. they manage. Furthermore, barriers to the uptake of climate data and forecasts can vary from political restrictions on Inequalities data use to presentation of data on scales and timeframes that do not match those required by the water manager. This Inequalities in water security are often research will seek to understand the needs difficult to identify. REACH research has of stakeholders in relation to climate data, found that, in the Awash, inequalities forecasts and their application to their in water security vary at the basin scale work. We will assess demand, barriers and – from upstream to downstream – and incentives, considering modalities preferred within communities among men, women for capacity building and communication and children. We have also found multiple that can increase climate communication in drivers for inequalities including socio- a sustained manner for stakeholders across cultural, institutional and biophysical water management institutions. components.

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 29 10/11/2020 13:58 Inclusive planning tools for water and various water users. There are specific allocation. Scarcity of safe water is water policies and legal frameworks that increasing as water demand and pollution determine how water security is governed. increase. Drinking water may be, in many cases, the first priority for allocation, but our Institutions to build water security research has identified that tools to support sustainably at scale. Strong institutions this prioritisation are limited, based on are recognised by SDG 16 as a necessary rudimentary evaluations of demand. Small condition to support sustainable water users, such as smallholder farmers or development, protect vulnerable people small businesses, have difficulty engaging in and promote prosperity. Institutions govern the decision-making processes to influence how decisions, information, incentives the outcomes that could support their and behaviour can promote or constrain livelihoods. Ecological needs are often poorly water security outcomes for the poor. understood. REACH will work with basin Without inclusive governance, reflecting managers to support the development of the priorities of the poor, progress may decision tools that are inclusive and support remain inequitable in how water resources their own needs. To do this, we will combine and services are managed, monitored, and the perspectives and priorities of water allocated between competing demands users, from large industry to marginalised by industry, agriculture, domestic water groups, based on social field research, and ecosystems. REACH will explore with basin-scale climate and hydrological how governments and researchers can modelling. collaborate to support institutional change in policy and practice.

Institutions

The governance of water security in the Awash basin is made up of a complex web of institutions. There are multiple stakeholders involved across different levels of government as well as NGOs, researchers

Credit: Alice Chautard/REACH

Awash Synthesis Report.indd 30 10/11/2020 13:58 RELEVANT REACH PUBLICATIONS

Grasham, C.F., Korzenevica, M. and Charles, van Koppen, B. and Schreiner, B. 2018. K.J. 2019. On considering climate resilience A hybrid approach to decolonize formal in urban water security: a review of the water law in Africa.IWMI Research Report 173, vulnerability of the urban poor in sub‐ Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Saharan Africa. WIREs Water. Management Institute (IWMI).

Theis, S., Bekele, R. D., Lefore, N., Walker, D., Haile, A.T., Gowing, J., Forsythe, Meinzen-Dick, R. S. and Ringler, C. 2018 N., and Parkin, G. 2019. Guideline: Selecting, . Considering gender when promoting training and managing para-hydrologists. small-scale irrigation technologies: Guidance REACH Working Paper 6, University of Oxford, for inclusive irrigation interventions. Oxford, UK. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Walker, D., Haile, A. T., Gowing, J., Legesse, Y., Gebrehawariat, G., Hundie, H., Berhanu, D., van Koppen, B, and Schreiner, B. 2018. and Parkin, G. 2019. Guideline: Community- Establishing hybrid water use rights systems based hydroclimate monitoring. REACH in sub-saharan Africa: a practical guide Working Paper 5, University of Oxford, Oxford, for managers. Pegasys Institute and IWMI UK. Report.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document is an output from the REACH programme funded by UK Aid from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) for the benefit of developing countries (Programme Code 201880). However, the views expressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of or endorsed by FCDO, which can accept no responsibility for such views or information or for any reliance placed on them.

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