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Chinese Historical GDP and International Comparison Debin Ma Debin Ma Lectures and Readings Lecture 1: Chinese Historical GDP and International Comparison Debin Ma, “Economic Growth in the Lower Yangzi Region of China in 1911–1937: A Quantitative and Historical Analysis” The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 68, Issue 2, June 2008, pp. 355-392. Kyoji Fukao, Debin Ma and Tangjun Yuan, “Real GDP in pre-War East Asia: a 1934- 36 Benchmark Purchasing Power Parity Comparison with the U.S." Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 53 Issue 3, September 2007 Lecture 2: Historical Chinese Living Standards: a real wage approach Robert Allen, Jean-Pascal Bassino, Debin Ma, Christine Moll-Murata and Jan Luiten van Zanden, “Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, 1738-1925: in Comparison with Europe, Japan and India” Economic History Review, Vol. 64, No. S1 2011, pp.8-38 Joerg Baten, Debin Ma, Stephen Morgan and Qing Wang, "Evolution of Living Standards and Human Capital in China in 18-20th Century", Explorations in Economic History, Volume 47, Issue 3, pp. 347-359 (July 2010). Lecture 3: Why England or Japan but not India or China: a factor-price based comparison of historical productivities Debin Ma, “Why Japan, not China, Was the First to Develop in East Asia, Lessons from Sericulture 1850-1937”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, January 2004, volume 52, No. 2,. Broadberry, S. and Gupta, B., “Lancashire, India and Shifting Competitive Advantage in Cotton Textiles, 1700-1850: The Neglected Role of Factor Prices”, Economic History Review, 62 (2009), 279-305. Economic History Association Economic Growth in the Lower Yangzi Region of China in 1911-1937: A Quantitative and Historical Analysis Author(s): Debin Ma Source: The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 68, No. 2 (Jun., 2008), pp. 355-392 Published by: Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Economic History Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40056379 . Accessed: 02/05/2014 07:44 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Cambridge University Press and Economic History Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Economic History. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 101.5.211.78 on Fri, 2 May 2014 07:44:47 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions EconomicGrowth in theLower Yangzi Regionof China in 1911-1937:A Quantitativeand HistoricalAnalysis Debin Ma Througha detailed reconstructionof 1933 GDP forthe two provincesin China's most advanced region, the Lower Yangzi, I show that theirper capita income was 55 percenthigher than China's average, and theyhad experienceda growth and structuralchange between 1914-1918 and 1931-1936 comparable to con- temporaneousJapan and her East Asian colonies. This article highlightsthe unique political institutionof early-twentieth-centuryShanghai as a city state, with its rule of law and secure propertyrights laying the foundationfor eco- nomic growthin the Lower Yangzi withlong-term impact throughout East Asia. economicgrowth is not a recentphenomenon. Thomas ChineseRawski contends that China's per capitaGDP growthhad already attaineda similarrate to thatof Japanin thefirst three decades of the twentiethcentury, a periodalso referredto as the Republicanera. In fact,economic growth is a themeas enduringas Chinese economic history.The questionraised by JosephNeedham, subsequently re- ferredas theNeedham puzzle, asked why, given her scientific, techno- logical,and economicleadership over the restof the worldup until perhapsthe fourteenthcentury, the ScientificRevolution and the In- dustrialRevolution bypassed China. More recently,a new wave of re- visionistscholarship marked by KennethPomeranz's book, The Great Divergence,extends this thesis with the provocative claim thatlevels of developmentand livingstandards in theLower Yangzi region(his- toricallyChina's mostadvanced area) may have stillbeen on a par The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 68, No. 2 (June 2008). © The Economic History Association. All rightsreserved. ISSN 0022-0507. Debin Ma is Lecturer,Department of Economic History,London School of Economics, Lon- don WC2A 2AE, UK. E-mail: [email protected]. For encouragementand suggestions,I want to thank Bart van Ark, Loren Brandt, Sherman Cockrane, Huang Han Ming, Paul Kandasamy, Carien Van Mourik, JunyaMa, Angus Maddi- son, Andrew Mitchell, Ramon Myers, Larry Neal, Patrick O'Brien, Konosuke Odaka, Sonja Opper, Kenneth Pomeranz, TirthankarRoy, Osamu Saito, Billy So, JeffreyWilliamson, Bin Wong, Pierre van der Eng, Oliver Volckart,and Yuan Weipen. I also thankparticipants of con- ferences and seminars organized at FASID Hakone Conference (Japan), LSE, Universityof Glasgow, Cornell University,University of Pompeu Fabreu, Global Economic HistoryNetwork (in Istanbul), Economic HistoryAssociation Meeting (San Jose, CA), InternationalEconomic HistoryCongress (Helsinki), and Historical Society (Chapel Hill, NC) for theirsuggestions. I am indebted to Rawski for sending me his unpublished manuscript,"Economy of the Lower Yangtze Region, 1850-1980," and to Reiko Hayashi and Felipe Fernandes forassisting with the map. My thanks go to the three referees and editors of this Journal, especially to Jeremy Atack. I alone remainresponsible for all errors. 355 This content downloaded from 101.5.211.78 on Fri, 2 May 2014 07:44:47 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 356 Ma withthose of NorthwesternEurope as lateas theeighteenth century. It was accidentalfactors such as the absence of coal depositsin the Lower Yangzi coupled withthe naturalresource windfalls from the discoveryof theNew Worldfor Europe that tilted the balance after- wardagainst China.1 This articlefocuses on Chineseindustrialization in the early twenti- eth century,which was disproportionatelyconcentrated in the Lower Yangzi, a regionsituated largely within the two administrativeprov- inces of Jiangsuand Zhejiang(hereafter abbreviated as "Jiang-Zhe"). It revisitsthe debateon Chineseeconomic growth in the Republican era from1911 to 1936 withnew, regional-level, quantitative evidence. It offersa detailedsectoral reconstruction of the 1930s GDP estimates forJiang-Zhe within the nationalGDP frameworkproposed by Liu Ta-chungand Yeh Kung-chia.The resultshows that per capita GDP in Jiang-Zhein 1930s was about55 percenthigher than China's national average,and 16-29 percenthigher than those of Japanese-controlled Korea and Manchuria.It rankedonly below Japanand Taiwan.Back- ward projectionbased on my 1930s Jiang-Zhebenchmark shows structuralchange and per-capitaincome growth comparable to those of Japanand her coloniesbetween the 1910s and 1930s and an eco- nomicstructure far removed from a traditionalagrarian economy. A strikingfeature of thisdistinctively regional economic growth is thatit took-offin an era of nationaldisintegration and civil strife.The articleoffers a narrativeto demonstratethat the pattern of industriali- zation,especially its absence duringthe latterhalf of the nineteenth centuryfollowed by a surgein the earlytwentieth century, speak to the importanceof ideological and institutionalchanges in modern China. In particular,during China's tumultuousWarlord era in the 1910s and 1920s,Shanghai transformed from a colonialtreaty port to a Europeanstyle city-state under the rule of Westernbusiness elites and providedeffective public securityand privateproperty rights for bothChinese and foreignbusiness within its jurisdiction. Despite the superiorhistorical conditions of the Lower Yangzi (as recently championedby Kenneth Pomeranz and others), early-twentieth- centuryeconomic growth in the Lower Yangzi did not growout of traditionalinstitutions, but rathergrew outsideof them.Going be- yond resourceendowments, I highlightinstitutions as crucialdeter- minantsof long-termeconomic change. 1 See Thomas Rawski, Economic Growth; and Mark Elvin, Patterns. A recent summaryof this literatureon this themecan be foundin Ma, "Growth." This content downloaded from 101.5.211.78 on Fri, 2 May 2014 07:44:47 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions EconomicGrowth in theLower Yangzi 357 Figure 1 MAP OF LOWER YANGZI AND OTHER MACRO-REGIONSIN CHINA Notes:The bolddark lines mark the provincial boundaries of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. ForJiangsu province, the Lower Yangzi Macro-Region(in darkshade) includes the following prefecturesin Jiangsuprovince: Suzhou, Songjiang, Jiangnin, Changzhou, Taicang, Zhengjiang, Yangzhou,Tongzhou, Haimen, Haizhou, and theCity of Shanghai;and thefollowing prefec- turesin Zhejiangprovince: Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Yanzhou, Caoxin, Ningbo, Cuzhou, andJinhua. The prefecturesoutside the Lower Yangzi Macro-Region(in lightshade) are Xuzhou and Hua-Anfor Jiangsu province and Wenzhou and Taizhoufor Zhjiang province. The tenmacro-regions that Skinner defined are Manchuria,North China, Northwester China, Upper, Middle and Lower Yangzis, Yungui, Lingna,nand SoutheastCoast. For detailed boundariesof macro-regions, see Skinner,"Presidential Addrss," p. 273. This content downloaded from 101.5.211.78 on Fri, 2 May 2014 07:44:47 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 358 Ma ECONOMIC
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