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Monthly Market Outlook July 2020

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Monthly Market Outlook July 2020 Monthly Market Outlook July 2020 1 Global Scenario 2 3 A Combination Of Easy Monetary And Easy Fiscal Policy Is Opening The Floodgates For Easy Money In The Global Economy Major countries have announced massive fiscal stimulus to the tune of $7.4tn (~9% of GDP) in response to the COVID-19 Central Banks globally reacted promptly by announcing aggressive cut in the policy rates to support growth Source: IMF, Spark Capital Research 4 However Increasing Debt Levels Will Sustain With Reducing Bond Yields Source: Bloomberg 5 Central Bankers Are Hoping That Money Supply Growth Will Lead To Growth Note: Global money supply growth is average of US, Europe and China broad money supply growth Source: Bloomberg, CPB Netherlands World Trade Monitor, Edelweiss research 6 Global Bonds Have Fully Recovered Their Losses Global bonds value – Lost 5tn$ in Mar 20 & recovered entirely Global bonds value – Lost 5tn$ in Mar 20 & recovered entirely Source : Bloomberg 7 Global Equities Regained Almost 2/3rd Of Losses Source : Bloomberg 8 Valuation Gap Between High And Low Valuation Stocks Remain Wide As on 25th June 2020 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9 China Is Getting Back To Work, Though Not Fully Back To Normal 99% 94% 98% -80% 59% 76% Of major Industrial On-job rate of Of agricultural Recovery of Recovery of Recovery of enterprises staff of major material property domestic flight metro resumed industrial enterprises transaction (by passengers in passengers (by operations(By Apr enterprises (by resumed ops (by May 6) May 13 May) 14) Apr14) Apr 3) -100% -121% -103% -84% 60% 460K+ Recovery of all- Recovery of coal Recovery of Of SME resumed Recovery in Companies shut cargo international consumption (by Congestion delay operations (by Apr discretionary permanently, flights per week May 15) (by May 14) 15) consumer spending. rising bankruptcies (by Apr 13) E.g. restaurants (by (by 2 May) May 2) Source : WIND, PRC State Council, tlt research 10 Economy 11 Sector impact - Revenue Significantly Impacted but Costs continue Low Medium High • Agricultural Produce • Auto Ancillaries • Aviation • Telecom • Consumer Durables • Hotels & Tourism • FMCG • Housing Finance Companies • Gems & Jewellery • Food Processing • Automobile OEMs • Multiplexes • Online Education • Logistics • Microfinance Institution • Seeds & Fertilisers • Power • Textiles ( Cotton Spinning) • Sugar • Electronics • Ports & Seafood • Banks • MSME • Engineering • News Paper • Mining • Advertising • Real Estate ( Residential) • Retailing • Financial Services • Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Leveraged companies will find it difficult to payback Debt Please click here for our Sectoral Update Report – March 2020 12 FY21 To See Negative Growth First Time Since 1980 13 Q4 FY20: Steep Decline In Nifty Earnings, Even Below Muted Expectations Source: Company data, Bloomberg, UBS estimates 14 Initial Trends Of Business Resumption is Encouraging, Still A Long Way To Go The NIBRI is composed of Google mobility indices, driving mobility from Apple, power demand and the labour force participation rate. Source: Nomura 15 BHARAT V/S INDIA 16 Bharat Leads Recovery And Outperforms India… Retail fertilizer spends stood at almost 2x in May’20 as Kharif sowing area is ~2.0x in June 2020 as compared to June compared to May’19. 2019 Source: MOFSL Source: IMD, Ministry of Agriculture, Jefferies 17 Bharat Leads Recovery And Outperforms India Tractor Registration has touched ~90% of FY20 levels Cement production near to May 2019 levels Source: Spark Capital Source: DIPP 18 Rural India Is Unaffected By The Lockdown And Is Poised To Benefit From Higher Price, Output And Govt. Spend Farm income to increase by over Rs. 3tn in both Long-pending reforms in the Agri sector to lead to FY20E and FY21E vs. Rs. 1.3tn in FY19 better supply chain and higher pricing for farmers Source: FAO, Spark Capital Research 19 Good Start To The Monsoon Season Monsoon season rainfall has continued to trend above normal Rainfall has been spread across the country Source: IMD, Ministry of Agriculture, Jefferies, MOFSL 20 Urban India Is Trying To Reach Normalcy Despite Constraints Power consumption has reached ~90% of the last E-WAY bill generations in Jun’20 has reached 80% year demand from 70% in Apr’20 of Jun'19 level Petrol and diesel consumption coming back to normal Electronic toll collections have jumped Source: GOI, GSTN, Spark Capital Research, Jefferies 21 Summary Of High-frequency Indicators Over April And May Source: * vs Jan-Feb levels. ** Inverted. *** Based on IOCL refinery utilization. Govt. of India, CMIE, Jefferies 22 Activity Levels In India Are Slowly Normalizing As Restrictions Have Eased SBI Research 23 Unemployment Rate Falls Rapidly In June June MNREGA employment already close to Feb level Source: CMIE 24 June GST Collection Picks Up Pace 25 Source: Finance Ministry, MOFSL India’s Manufacturing PMI Showed An Uptick In Jun’20 Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL 26 Markets 27 Broad Market(BSE500) Performance: Even Weaker Than Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Proportion of companies reporting YoY revenue Jump in proportion of companies seeing Proportion of companies reporting YoY PAT decline higher than compared to GFC EBITDA margin contraction but not at peak yet decline also far higher than compared to GFC % companies reporting negative revenue growth % companies reporting margin contraction % companies reporting negative PAT growth Source: Capitaline, UBS Q4FY20 impacted by 15 days of Lockdown, Q1FY21 to see larger impact 28 In India , COVID Impact In-line With 2008 Crisis: May Become Severe And Prolonged 130 Nifty rebased to 100 for 1st Feb 2020, 8th Nov 2016 and 12th Sep 2008 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 3M 6M 9M 12M Nifty - Global Financial Crisis (2008) Nifty - Demonetization Nifty - COVID-19 (2020) Bank Nifty - COVID-19 (2020) Past Performance may or may not sustain in the future Source: capital line ,Internal analysis 29 EPS Estimates Have Seen Sharp Cuts In The Past Few Months Nifty-50 Index EPS estimates trend, March fiscal year-ends, 2018E-22E (Rs) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates 30 Nifty @ ~10300 Levels market is discounting Lower Gold Imports, Oil Prices and Trade Deficit with China Rebound In Economic Activities Smooth Execution of Economic Package and Reforms - MSME - NBFC - FDI - Agriculture Monetary Stimulus - Liquidity from Banks to Borrowers - Reduced Borrowing cost for the Borrowers Potential higher FPI Flows Medical Solution - Drugs - Vaccine 31 This Crisis Requires Medical Solution 32 India’s Trade Deficit With China Reducing From The FY18 Highs 33 Source: CEIC, MOFSL Record Capital Raise & Absorption For Good Companies 34 Second Consecutive Month Of FII Inflows In Jun’20 FII inflows at USD2.5b were higher in Jun’20 v/s USD1.7b in May’20. DII inflows moderated in Jun’20 and stood at just USD0.3b. Source: Motilal Oswal 35 FPI Flows Post MSCI And FTSE Russel Index Rejig • MSCI Defers June FOL implementation • FTSE has announced that it will conduct the implementation of foreign limit increases in 4 tranches starting from September 2020 (then Dec-21, Mar-21, June-21) Possible flows impact over the course of 12 months ( US$ bn) MSCI - net 3.6 FTSE - net 2.8 Total - net 6.4 MSCI - gross 5.6 FTSE - gross 3.26 Total - gross 8.86 MSCI + FTSE India Potential Passive Inflow of US$6.4 bn 36 Source: Morgan Stanley Non-Food Credit Growth Slows Down To 5.70% In June’20* From 10.69% in June’19 Data as on June’20* Data as on June’19 Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Gross Bank Credit 1.99% 5.82% 3.85% 10.73% Food Credit 6.93% 20.01% -2.17% 16.43% Non-Food Credit 1.95% 5.70% 3.89% 10.69% Source: RBI *Data is a based on outstanding as on June 19, 2020 37 Market Performance 38 Market Snapshot Dec-07 May-13 Jun-20 Dec-07 May-13 Jun-20 Macro Indicators 10-Year Govt Bond Yield Capacity Utilisation (Dec 19) 91.7% 71.6% (Jun-13) 68.6% India 7.8% 7.2% 5.9% Credit Growth (as on May 20) 22.0% 14.4% 6.2% USA 4.0% 2.1% 0.6% ROE Nifty 50 (Jun 20) 25.5% 17.1% (Mar-13) 14.0% Japan 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% Net FII Flows (12M - Rs Cr – Jun 20) 71,952 125,110 1920 Europe 4.3% 1.5% -0.5% IIP – Apr 20 13.5% 1.0% -55.5% China 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% GDP Growth (Jan – Mar 20) 9.6% 6.4% 3.1% Dec-07 May-13 Jun-20 Dec-07 May-13 Jun-20 Valuations Returns of Nifty 50 (CAGR) Trailing P/E Nifty 50 27.6 18.0 26.3 Last 1 Yr Return 54.8% 21.6% -12.6% Trailing P/B Nifty 50 6.4 3.2 2.9 Last 2 Yr Return 47.1% 3.8% -1.9% Last 3 Yr Return 43.4% 5.6% 2.7% 39 Source: Axis Capital , Bloomberg, Nifty Fell 38% From The Highs In Less Than 90 Trading Sessions And Rallied Back 38% From The Lows Again In Less Than 90 Trading Session.. 60%+ Gain of Nifty50 contributed by Reliance Industries alone Banking among most impacted NSE Sectoral Indices % chg 13000 Bank -34% Realty -32% 12000 Metal -29% 11000 10312 Media -26% Services -22% 10000 Auto -19% Commodities -17% 9000 Energy -10% Infrastructure -7% 8000 7610 IT -6% 7000 FMCG 0% Pharma 24% Nifty 50 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The above stocks may or may not form part of the fund(s) Source: Bloomberg 40 Source: future the in sustain notmay or may Performance Past All Time Levels High Nifty Ex Financials Near To 100 110 50 60 70 80 90 IIFL 31-Dec-19 06-Jan-20 12-Jan-20 18-Jan-20 24-Jan-20 30-Jan-20 05-Feb-20 11-Feb-20 17-Feb-20 23-Feb-20 Rebased to 100 to Rebased 29-Feb-20 Nifty 06-Mar-20 12-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 24-Mar-20 30-Mar-20 Ex-Financials Nifty 05-Apr-20 11-Apr-20 17-Apr-20 23-Apr-20 29-Apr-20 05-May-20 11-May-20 17-May-20 23-May-20 29-May-20 04-Jun-20 10-Jun-20 16-Jun-20 22-Jun-20 41 28-Jun-20 86 98 Performance Across Market Cap Performance as on 30th June 2020 Performance as on 31st Jan 2020 20 15.3 15 10.8 10 7.5 6.8 6.1 4.2 5 2.7 2.5 2.2 0 (5) (2.8) (10) (6.0) (15) (12.6) (14.2) (20) (16.7) (25) (25.6) (30) Nifty Nifty Midcap NSE Small Cap 1m returns 1y returns 3 yr CAGR 5 yr CAGR 10 yr CAGR Source: Bloomberg, Past Performance may or may not sustain in the future 42 Midcap Index Outperforms Nifty – First Time Since CY17 • NSE Midcap 100 index, though down 14% is marginally outperforming Nifty on a YTD’20 basis – for the first time since 2017.
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