Slide Presentation
Presented at the UNEP/OECD Meeting on Lead in Gasoline 12-13 December, 1996 (Paris)
by Mr. Michael Walsh
Consultant from Car Lead in Gasoline The Need For and Options For Its Elimination
Why Was Lead Added To Gasoline? Low Cost Octane Enhancer Higher Octane Allowed Better Engines More Efficient Higher Power Output Lead In Gasoline Causes Serious Problems High Ambient Lead Levels Precludes The Use of Catalytic Converters To Reduce CO, HC and NOx High Vehicle Maintenance Costs
Adverse Health Effects From Lead At low doses, toxic to brain, kidney, reproductive and cardiovascular systems Manifestations include impairments in intellectual function, kidney damage, infertility, miscarriage, and hypertension. At high exposures, lead is lethal to humans, inducing convulsions and irreversible hemorrhage in the brain. Long term exposures associated with increased risks of kidney cancer. Other Adverse Health Effects reduced sperm counts crosses the placenta and is accumulated by the fetus reduced birth weight reduced fetal skeletal growth
Other Adverse Health Effects - Continued increased blood pressure in adults population-based studies in which lead exposure and blood pressure are measured prospective studies in which blood pressure is monitored in persons as their lead exposures increase (usually in occupational settings, eg traffic police) case control studies in which lead exposure is measured and compared in persons with and without diagnosed hypertension Children Are Especially Susceptible increased likelihood of exposure, increased absorption, and increased susceptibility of the brain.
Blood Lead Levels Considered Elevated
Micrograms per Deciliter 35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year Transportation Fuel Combustion Industrial Processes Solid Waste Median Blood Lead Level Lead Emissions Thousand Tons/Year 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 87% Decline In Average Ambient Lead Levels Over Same Time Period Japan
Sapporo
Aomori
Akita Iwate
Yamagata
Sendai Fukushima Niigata Koriyama
To ya m a Tochigi Virtually Kanazawa Nagano Ibaragi Fukui Maebashi Urawa Eliminated Hachioji Tokyo Tottori Matsue Gifu Yokohama Chiba Leaded Kyoto Shiga NagoyaShizuoka Fukuyama Okayama Kobe Yokkaichi Hiroshima Osaka Okazaki Gasoline in the Tsu Kitakyushu Yamaguchi Nara Takamatsu Wakayama '70's Matsuyama Tokushima Fukuoka Saga Kochi Nagasaki Oita
Kumamoto
Miyazaki OKINAWA-KEN NANSEI ISLANDS Kagoshima
South America
GUYANA VENEZUELA FRENCH GUIANA COLOMBIA SURINAME ECUADOR
BRAZIL PERU
BOLIVIA
PARAGUAY CHILE Brazil Colombia ARGENTINA URUGUAY Canada
Arctic Bay
Cambridge Bay
Inuvik Repulse Bay
Frobisher Dawson Bay Yellowknife
Whitehorse
Churchill
Prince Edmonton Albert
Goose Bay Regina Calgary Winnipeg Vancouver Thunder Bay Quebec Victoria Montreal St. John's Ottawa To r on t o
United States
Since January 1, 1996 Central America
DOMINICAN CUBA REPUBLIC
VIRGIN BELIZE JAMAICA HAITI PUERTO ISLANDSANTIGUA AND BARBUDA RICO GUATEMALA HONDURAS ST. KITTS GUADELOUPE EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA MARTINIQUE Guatemala ST VINCENT AND BARBADOS El Salvador COSTA RICA PANAMA THE GRENADINES GRENADA Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica
Southeast Asia
INDIA
BURMA VIETNAM LAOS
THAILAND Thailand CAMBODIA PHILIPPINES
MALAYSIA MALAYSIA
SINGAPORE
I N D O N E S I A Europe
ICELAND SWEDEN FINLAND
NORWAY
Sweden
UNITED DENMARK Austria KINGDOM Denmark IRELAND NETHERLANDS GERMANY POLAND Finland
BELGIUM CZECH REPUBLIC LUXEMBOURG Germany SLOVAKIA AUSTRIA Switzerland SWITZERLAND HUNGARY FRANCE SLOVENIA ROMANIA CROATIA Slovakia
MONACO BOSNIA ITALY SERBIA ANDORRA BULGARIA ALBANIA MACEDONIA
SPAIN GREECE PORTUGAL
MALTA
Asia
RUSSIA
KAZAKHASTAN MONGOLIA
NORTH KOREA UZBEKISTAN JAPAN GEORGIA KYRGYZSTAN AZERBAIJAN SOUTH TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKEY CHINA KOREA
SYRIA AFGHANISTAN IRAQ IRAN NEPAL JORDAN PAKISTAN BHUTAN
BANGLADESH TAIWAN SAUDI INDIA BURMA ARABIA LAOS
PHILIPPINES OMAN THAILAND VIETNAM CAMBODIA YEMEN
SRI LANKA MALAYSIA
PAPUA INDONESIA NEW GUINEA Asia
RUSSIA
KAZAKHASTAN MONGOLIA
NORTH KOREA UZBEKISTAN JAPAN GEORGIA KYRGYZSTAN AZERBAIJAN SOUTH TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN China by TURKEY CHINA KOREA SYRIA AFGHANISTAN 2000? IRAQ IRAN NEPAL JORDAN PAKISTAN BHUTAN
BANGLADESH TAIWAN SAUDI INDIA BURMA ARABIA LAOS
PHILIPPINES OMAN THAILAND VIETNAM CAMBODIA YEMEN
SRI LANKA MALAYSIA
PAPUA INDONESIA NEW GUINEA
Africa
TUNISIA MOROCCO
ALGERIA LIBYA EGYPT WESTERN SAHARA
MAURITANIA MALI NIGER ERITREA CHAD SENEGAL SUDAN DJIBOUTI THE GAMBIA BURKINA GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA TOGO NIGERIA ETHIOPIA COTE SIERRA-LEONE BENIN CENTRAL D'IVOIRE LIBERIA GHANA AFRICAN REPUBLIC CAMEROON UGANDA SOMALIA EQUATORIAL GUINEA KENYA GABON RWANDA CONGO ZAIRE BURUNDI ANGOLA TANZANIA
ANGOLA
ZAMBIA MALAWI
MOZAMBIQUE ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR
NAMIBIA BOTSWANA
SWAZILAND
SOUTH LESOTHO AFRICA Unleaded Gasoline Is Becoming Dominant Worldwide
1995 Gasoline Sales Worldwide
Leaded 28.0%
Unleaded 72.0%
Can Unleaded Gasoline Be Used In Old Vehicles? Valve Recession Problem Has Not Materialized Need Sustained High Speed, High Load Operation Lead Substitutes Exist if Needed (Sodium & Sulfur) No Other Impediments Identified Economic Benefits of Reducing Lead Exposure
Earnings Loss Infant Mortality Millions 8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 1 microgram/deciliter reduction One year's cohort of US Children $5,307 per IQ Point
Issue: How To Produce Lead Free - Low Lead Gasoline Options For Replacing Lead Lower Octane Requirement For Vehicles Adding Lead Substitutes Refinery Modifications
Possible Refinery Modification To Replace Lead In Gasoline Increase Reformer Severity to Raise Reformate Octane Increase Production/Use of High Octane Blendstocks Reformate FCC Gasoline Alkylate Isomerate Oxygenates Issue: Fast Track or Slow Track
s k Ris
Leaded Health Gasoline Lead Slow Transition High Cost Alternatives Quick Lead Inv Free e stmen Cost t, Lo w
Problems With A Slow Transition Risks of Contamination Deliberate Accidental Expense of Dual Distribution System Delivery Pumps & Storage Vehicles Administrative Problems With A Quick Transition Potentially High Refinery Investment Infrastructure Adaptation
Policy Options For Lead Free Command and Control Vehicle Market Driven Fuel Pricing Combination Impact of Lead On Emissions Catalyst Equipped Cars
Normalized Emissions 20
108.2, 15.3 15
86.1, 12.15 161.1, 11.89 43, 11.38 120.8, 11.33 64.2, 10.51 10 21.5, 9.6 80.5, 9.56 40.3, 8.65
61.5, 6.15 46.1, 5.56 0, 5.17 73.9, 5.01 120.8, 4.87 161.1, 5.33 0, 4.35 30.7, 4.58 55.7, 4.46 108.2, 4.69 5 18.4, 3.74 73.9,80.5, 86.1,3.77 4.08 4.17 0, 3.2415.4, 3.6437.1,43, 3.63 3.5355.7,64.2, 3.42 3.72 0, 2.96 21.5, 2.6140.3,46.1, 3 2.5961.5, 2.86 30.7,37.1, 2.03 2.35 120.8, 1.9 161.1, 2.08 15.4,18.4, 1.52 1.71 43, 1.2755.7,64.2, 1.2873.9, 1.341.2680.5, 86.1,1.2586.1, 1.591.44 1.321.5NMHC108.2, 1.691.32120.8, 1.7 0,0,0, 0.790.820.9 115.4,18.4,21.5, 0.88 30.7,1.09 0.940.7437.1,40.3, 0.9343,46.1, 0.731.08 1.170.921.011.0755.7, 0.750.9861.5,61.5, 1.060.97 73.9,0.830.73 180.5, 1.171.08 1.08 120.8, 1.12 161.1, 1.17 0,0, 0.290.310.360.390.220.230.70.315.4,18.4, 0.440.36 30.7,0.530.4530.7,37.1, 0.59 0.546.1, 0.65 0.67 0 0 50 100 150 200 Grams Of Lead
Trends In Lead Emissions & Air Quality In The US
Lead Emissions 87% Decrease in Thousand Tons/Year Average Ambient 80 Lead Levels in 189 Urban Sites Over 60 This Same Period
40
20
Transportation Fuel Combustion Industrial Processes Solid Waste
0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Leaded Gasoline Should Be Eliminated Alternatives Are Widely Available Health Concerns No Longer Debateable Catalysts Are Best Solution To CO, HC, NOx Problems Modern Engines Designed For Lead Free Fuel