August 5, 2021

Foundation Office Belarus/Lithuania

Illegal migration as a political weapon

About the situation on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border Jakob Wöllenstein, Elisabeth Bauer, Fausta Šimaitytė

Belarus will even double and take place from a total The Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has of four Iraqi cities. repeatedly threatened the EU to allow refugees Border security is currently given priority. Barbed from war zones to enter the EU in response to the wire is to be built along the entire border. The sanctions imposed on his country. The main establishment of a permanent border location is also target is Lithuania, which has an almost 680 under discussion. The technical means for border kilometer long and mostly unprotected border surveillance alone would cost 400 million euros. The with Belarus. The increase in illegal migrant EU has so far pledged 12 million euros. So far, the flows from Iraq and African countries is actively Lithuanian government has budgeted 100 million promoted by the Belarusian regime. According to euros for overcoming the crisis. Ylva Johansson, the EU Commissioner for Home Affairs, this is not just a migration crisis, but an (Re) actions by Lithuania and the EU act of aggression aimed at destabilization. On July 2nd the Lithuanian government declared a Data on illegal migration to Lithuania from third state of emergency2 due to the migration crisis and countries via Belarus called the European border protection agency FRONTEX for support on July 9th. FRONTEX The number of illegal migrants who have entered announced on July 12th a Rapid Border Intervention Lithuania via Belarus since the beginning of 2021 is Mission to the Lithuanian-Belarusian border. 4,110. This number is 44 times higher than the total Furthermore, they plan to provide additional support number from 2020. 2,500 people in one month - that with personnel and special equipment. 100 Frontex would be almost 70,000 people in proportion to officials are already in Lithuania. Germany1. These numbers are reminiscent of the situation with refugees in Germany from 2015-2016. Germany has sent 30 border guards bilaterally, Lithuanian border guards suggest that in around 90 Latvia and Estonia is also providing support in this percent of cases they succeed in detecting illegal area. border crossings and in registering migrants. Most of the others head straight for Western Europe, as Greece and Spain pledged assistance with exchange Lithuania is only a stopover for them. of experience and Poland and Croatia pledged humanitarian assistance. A deportation of the migrants to Belarus is not At the EU level, the problem was discussed on March possible because the Belarusian Foreign Ministry 12th, 2021 at the joint hearing of the EP committees had already announced the initiation of the procedure for internal and foreign affairs and at the meeting of to suspend the readmission agreement on May 28, the EU Council of Foreign Ministers. ‘It seems that 2021 - as a reaction to the fourth sanction package the Belarusian authorities are now facilitating of the EU. Two days earlier, Lukashenka had irregular migration, possibly in retaliation for EU declared that it would no longer stop illegal migrants restrictive measures and in response to Lithuanian and drug trafficking at the EU border. support to civil society in Belarus,’ said EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson. The Lithuanian Foreign Minister recently held direct talks with Ankara and Baghdad about taking back The Lithuanians also see the development as a illegal migrants and limiting flights to Minsk. deliberately induced hybrid aggression, which is However, without success - from August the flights to primarily directed against their country, but also against the EU as a whole. So far Poland has only

1 FAZ, Lukaschenkos Rache, 27 Juli 2021. 2 http://www.infolex.lt/ta/702551 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Foundation Office Belarus/Lithuania August 2021 2 2

reported a few dozen illegal border crossings and the - The classification of illegal migrants - with the Latvians even fewer. exception of women with children, pregnant women, The Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis spoke minors and the disabled - as ‘accomplices’ in the out in favor of a European readmission strategy at organization of illegal migration and a relevant the Council of Ministers meeting, ‘because one residence regime; country alone - be it Lithuania, be it Greece or Spain - The implementation of a clear information campaign - faces a rather difficult path when it comes to about the real situation of illegal migrants in the sending back people who have entered illegally. countries of origin. Secondly, we have to be very strict with the regimes that use this type of weapon.’ Should the hybrid aggression persist and worsen, the government will be asked, after assessing the risk, to The German Chancellor Angela Merkel called the open consultations with NATO member states, to call actions of the Belarusian authorities ‘unacceptable’ on the member states of the European Union, the on July 22nd and spoke out in favor of the creation of European Commission and other institutions to show a common European asylum policy. Earlier, during solidarity in combating hybrid aggression3. his visit to Lithuania on May 5th, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel pledged solidarity In addition, a tightening of the law was initiated and support for Lithuania on behalf of the EU states. which, among other factors, is intended to deprive On July 9th a call was published by the foreign illegal migrants of the right to appeal after a first committees of the parliaments of the USA, the UK, instance decision on their status. It was decided to and ten EU countries urging new sanctions against shorten the asylum procedure to ten days and to Lukashenka's regime because of the targeted restrict the free movement of migrants who have fomenting of a migration crisis. illegally crossed the border. The Seimas has approved the proposal that detaining an illegal On July 31st-August 1st, the EU Commissioner Ylva migrant can take up to six months. Johansson visited Lithuania and spoke out in favor of a physical barrier at the border. However, she also Further amendments to the legal acts stipulate that said that she has no budget for it. During her visit to the presence in the country of foreigners who have Lithuania, the Commissioner was open to further applied for asylum shortly after crossing the border discussing the special situation for Lithuania. at border control posts or transit zones does not count as entry into the territory of Lithuania until a Domestic policy steps to deal with illegal decision has been made to accept an asylum seeker. migration It was also decided that the rights of asylum seekers On July 13th, the Seimas passed a resolution ‘On may be temporarily restricted in the event of a war or Coping with Hybrid Aggression’, which states that an emergency situation with a mass influx of illegal countries hostile to Lithuania are engaging in hybrid migrants if they cannot be guaranteed for objective aggression against Lithuania. reasons, with the exception of the right to material reception and medical assistance. Thereby creating a threatening situation on the Lithuanian state boarder, which is also an external It remains to be seen whether the authorities, who boarder of the EU and NATO. are already overwhelmed, can cope with the accelerated procedure. Nevertheless, in the opinion The resolution passed calls on the government to of the legal experts, it is not the change in the law on take the following measures: immigrants that accelerates the asylum procedure, - The use of the armed forces to protect the border; but the practical success in returning rejected asylum - Immediate establishment of a physical obstacle at seekers to their countries of origin that will be the border; decisive for coping with the migration crisis4. - Identification and penalisation of the organizers of the migration flows including natural and legal persons in Belarus;

3 Resolution „Über die Bewältigung einer hybriden 4https://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu/lietuva/dainius- Aggression’ (Projekt Nr. XIVP-723 (2)): https://e- zalimas-darkart-apie-krizes-valstybe-negali-buti-kvailiu- seimas.lrs.lt/portal/legalAct/lt/TAP/51e08400e39611eb866f ikaite-56-1541244?copied e2e083228059

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Criticism of changes in the law should influence Belarus through diplomatic channels, also with the help of mediators. The right- The Lithuanian Red Cross and several human rights wing populist forces that had gathered under the organizations criticise the changes made to the law banner of the ‘family march’ also accused the on the legal situation of migrants. They state the government saying that the migrant crisis was changes would violate Lithuania's international caused by Lithuania's tough stance against the obligations and violate the rights of refugees. Some Minsk regime and suggested a dialogue with legal experts point to the possible unconstitutionality Lukashenko. of the changes in the law because of the unsecured legal remedies after a refusal of asylum decision. The President Nauseda has criticized such proposals, head of the migration authority Evelina Gudzinskaitė indicating that a change of course in foreign policy rejects this criticism. According to the EU directive and a dialogue with the dictator would be completely and EU practice, one court is sufficient for asylum unacceptable. The sanctions against Belarus were examination procedures, as the diverse practice of not imposed by Lithuania, but by the EU7. other countries proves5. Furthermore, the leader of the Social Democrats, In light of the long-standing disagreements between Vilija Blinkevičiūtė explicitly formulated that the the president and the government, President Gitanas current foreign policy course of Lithuania should not Nausėda hesitated to sign the package of be changed but stated that the consequences could amendments. He particularly criticized the violation be better assessed. of human rights and called on parliament to rectify the deficiencies in the law6. The parliamentary In addition, the representatives of the opposition speaker Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen promised to review decided to turn to the President of the European the law in the course of the autumn sittings. Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, with a request to review the Lithuanian government’s plan to build a physical barrier on the border with Belarus. The Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė also defended the ‘Peasant Party’ pointed out that there was already a changes in the law by stating that neither Lithuania precedent at European level with Hungary, which nor the illegally entered migrants were interested in had lost the case relating to border construction an excessive procedure. before the European Court of Justice8.

However, it does not exclude adapting the decisions Opposition leader Skvernelis criticized the EU, which regarding migrants to the changing situation if so far has only provided humanitarian aid, but has concrete amendment proposals with formulations made no contribution to solving the problem9. are introduced. She rejected the criticism of a Domestic Effects of the Migrant Crisis possible violation of human rights, arguing that the onslaught of migrants was triggered precisely The migration crisis may lead to a strengthening of because Lithuania had actively defended the populist and subversive forces. So far, no radical Belarusians' right to free elections vis-à-vis the party in Lithuania has won more than two percent of regime. the vote, but society's distrust of political parties is growing. The reception centers for the migrants close Reaction of the opposition to their places of residence are more than controversial among the local population and are The chairman of the opposition ‘Peasant Party’ causing increasing social tensions. Prime Minister Ramūnas Karbauskis opposes the government's Ingrida Šimonytė warned against turning the hybrid crisis management and is convinced that attempts to scare off migrants through information campaigns do not make sense. According to Karbauskis, Lithuania

5 7 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/nauseda-su- https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/1454247/migracijos- diktatoriumi-nesikalbesime-taip-kaip-jis-galbut- departamento-vadove-laukia-nausedos-paraso-po- tikisi.d?id=87800879 istatymu-del-migrantu-teisiu 8 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/karbauskis-musu- 6 BNS, Jul 14, Lithuanian president: we must respect uzsienio-politika-migrantu-klausimu-yra- migrants' rights, not to become walk-through yard. apgailetina.d?id=87763529 9 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/skvernelis- negaili-kritikos-valdziai-jie-sugeba-kartoti-2009-uju-klaidas- ir-sukelti-visiska-chaosa.d?id=87796401

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attack into a hate crisis when hatred of the ‘strangers’ fears of society, the minister assured that the armed gets incited.10 forces would be deployed to protect the population if necessary, in order to relieve the border guards of The protests against the accommodation of migrants this function.14 The Head of State Nausėda is in are particularly strong in the opposition-ruled district agreement with the Defense Minister and considers of Šalčininkai. During protests in the Dieveniškės and the state of emergency as a last resort. Rūdninkai communities, subversive slogans were heard among other things. The situation at the The opposition is divided over the introduction of the military training area in Rūdininkai escalated when state of emergency. The chairman of the ‘Farmers' around 150 protesters blocked the entrance to the Party’ Karbauskis speaks out against it because he military compound and lit fires there. The police had fears that this could stop the protests directed against to use tear gas to evict the protesters and two police the migrants. Opposition leader Skvernelis, on the officers were injured. The police have launched a other hand, believes the introduction of a state of pre-trial investigation into the organization of the emergency in the border areas is necessary in order recent riots near the Rūdninkai military training to prevent greater damage, but also to prevent area.11 potential provocations. Schemes of illegal migration Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė stated that residents in the Šalčininkai district were deliberately incited to Research by journalists from the Lithuanian protest against the accommodation of migrants and broadcaster LRT, the Russian publication that a dialogue with the local population was Mediazona and the ‘Scanner Project’ as well as prevented by the position of MEP Valdemaras investigations by the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense Tomaševskis from the Party of Lithuanian Poles.12 show that the regime in Belarus is directly involved in She further argues that the communities led by the the organization of illegal migration. ruling coalition or related parties are willing to engage The latest video recordings from ‘Frontex’ show that in constructive dialogue resulting in less protest in Belarusian official bodies are involved in the event.15 those areas. The Lithuanian secret service sees no anti-state According to statements made by migrants, forces involved in the protests. At the same time, it Facebook groups in various languages of the Middle has pointed out that the radicalization of sentiments East have been appearing since March, promoting in Lithuanian society and an escalation of the Lithuania as the ‘best entry point into the EU and situation could be in the interests of hostile states.13 Western Europe’.

In response to the worsening situation in Rūdininkai, For four years now there have been four regular Iraqi the Conservative Interior Minister Agnė Bilotaitė Airlines flights a week from Baghdad to Minsk. But suggested that consideration should be given to the issuing of visas to Belarus for tourist purposes declaring a state of emergency in the border areas. was only resumed this spring. Since May 10th Minsk In such a case, border control would be taken over is served by another Iraqi airline, Fly Baghdad. There by the armed forces and access to the territory of are scheduled flights from Turkey to Minsk every day. Lithuania would be blocked. According to the sources mentioned above, criminals Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas is against the offer potential ‘refugees’ Belarusian visas as well as imposition of a state of emergency. There is still no flight tickets and travel vouchers to Minsk and threat to the constitutional order. According to the guarantee them the border crossing to Lithuania. The defense minister, the imposition of a state of legal part of the trip to Belarus is handled by a emergency would worsen the situation in light of the network of Iraqi and Belarusian travel agencies. On upcoming Russian-Belarusian military exercise the Belarusian side, the state travel company ‘Zapad’, among other factors. In order to allay the ‘Central Spa’ is to receive tourists from Iraq and

10 https://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu/lietuva/i- 13 Lithuania's SSD sees no anti-state groups being active simonyte-ruosemes-atremti-40-tukst-migrantu-antpludi-o- among anti-migrant protesters, VILNIUS, Jul 27, BNS. dabar-esame-pasimete-56-1534396?copied 14https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/1458692/ministras 11 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/bilotaite-del- -kariuomene-prisides-prie-migrantu-apgyvendinimo-vietu- ivykiu-rudninkuose-tai-buvo-pikta-tycine- apsaugos?fbclid=IwAR0784UXZ5zLUCu1uljTcz0Sz6yltejx provokacija.d?id=87802247 VyTGXshEjd_-Uus6HW1K5Zov0aY 12 https://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu/lietuva/i- 15https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/1461903/ministerij simonyte-itampa-salcininku-kraste-kursto-v-tomasevskis- a-turi-galimu-irodymu-kad-baltarusijos-pareigunai- 56-1541072 dalyvauja-neteisetos-migracijos-organizavime

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accommodate them in hotels in Minsk for one to four guards were not aware of any incident at the border days before they are chauffeured to the Lithuanian and that Belarus was responsible for what happened border by smugglers. on the Belarusian side. At the same time, several Lithuanian media portals received threatening letters According to press reports, the border is usually in which a terrorist attack on several larger shopping crossed on foot at night with appropriate briefing by centers, office buildings and authorities was the ‘smugglers’. The ‘tour’ to Lithuania would cost the announced as an act of revenge for the ‘Muslim potential refugee around 6,000 dollars. Should they brothers’.18 want to be transported further - to Germany, for example - the price would rise to up to 15,000 dollars. A week earlier, Lukashenko had insulted Lithuanians Some make the way from Minsk across the border as ‘Nazis’ because they allegedly tortured the without ‘helpers’ on their own, following instructions migrants in Lithuania and deported them to Belarus, from their ‘predecessors’ who have already reached increasing the possibility of radical and armed Lithuania. Apparently, the regime in Minsk also Muslims entering the country for retaliation. derives considerable financial benefits from the scheme: each Iraqi has to leave 3,000 dollars as a An extraordinary session of the Lithuanian deposit when issuing visas. This amount will be Parliament will take place on August 10, 2021, which collected in favor of the Belarusian state if the ‘tourist’ is expected to decide on the imposition of a state of does not return from the ‘trip’ to Belarus. If this emergency and the construction of the border wall. calculation is correct, the regime in Minsk could have collected more than 2 million euros from the more Domestic outlook than 1,000 Iraqis who have already been arrested in Lithuania. Despite the tense situation, there is a general consensus that Lithuania must protect the EU's The latest developments external border. Prime Minister Šimonytė assured that Lithuania will not become a transit route for In response to the increasing number of incoming migrants to other EU countries such as Germany or illegal migrants, the Ministry of the Interior decided Sweden. However, voices calling for a review of the on August 2, 2021 to prevent illegal migrants from EU migration policy at the European level are getting crossing the border, if necessary with force. Migrants louder. should be referred to border control posts or embassies to apply for asylum there. It is expected that the number of migrants arriving illegally in Lithuania will continue to increase. At least Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis in an 10,000 more illegal migrants are expected by the end interview said that the Belarusian regime has started of the year. talks with West and North African countries in order to start further trips to Belarus.16 However, the The Lithuanian border guards are currently planning ambassador of the European Union (EU) to Iraq, to purchase 400 residential containers to Martin Huth, has received information that flights accommodate the illegal migrants, mainly women from Iraq to Minsk are to be suspended for the next and children, who have arrived in Lithuania. This ten days. Allegedly ‘Iraq Airways’ informed all travel measure alone could cost Lithuania around 200 companies in the country about the suspended million euros. flights.17 As a consequence, further tensions in the population In addition, the Belarusian side is increasingly using are expected. The situation could develop in such a verbal attacks as a means of propaganda against way that the state can no longer accept any more Lithuania. Lukashenko has ordered an investigation migrants. The former chairman of the constitutional into the alleged death of an Iraqi on the Lithuanian- court has pointed out that the social order of the Belarusian border. Thereupon the Lithuanian Prime country could be endangered by the situation. Minister Šimonytė stated that the Lithuanian border

16https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/pasaulyje/6/1462515/landsbe rgio-interviu-politico-lukasenka-derasi-su-afrikos-salimis- 18 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/policija-pradejo- del-nauju-kelioniu-krypciu tyrima-del-grasinimo-ivykdyti-teroristini- nusikaltima-tarp- 17 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/world/es-ambasadorius- galimu-taikiniu-akropolis-ozas-delfi.d?id=87875153 panasu-kad-skrydziai-is-irako-i-minska-kuriam-laikui- atsaukiami.d?id=87874645

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In addition, the former President Dalia Grybauskaitė for economic migrants the faster Lukashenka's warned of a possible provocation of armed conflict on calculations can be thwarted. Until then, however, the border since the Lithuanian military is involved in Poland in particular will have to adjust to secondary the border security there. migration flows.

Conclusion Viewed from the wider angle of Europe, the situation Since those arriving are evidently primarily economic on the Belarus-Lithuania border is only a ‘subchapter’ refugees who are able to afford the expensive on the subject of flight and migration. Both the journey by plane, the Lithuanians' strategy of working Lithuanians and Brussels aptly pointed out that this together with the countries of origin to establish is a challenge for the EU as a whole. Common identity and possibly limiting travel capacities and to answers must therefore be found, for example in rely on information campaigns seems correct in order relation to asylum legislation, external border to counter the fake news spread there. protection and the question of how to counter the transparent strategy of smugglers to combine illegal Should this group of people decrease in number, border crossings with the submission of (foreseeably Chechnya in particular would stand out as a possible unsuccessful) asylum applications. The fact that the further region of origin, since the residents there can problem of illegal border crossings is now affecting a freely enter Belarus as citizens of Russia. Other country and a region in Lithuania for which the great larger groups, such as people from Afghanistan, refugee crisis of 2015 seemed far away could at best could only reach Belarus if the Central Asian states lead to a growing European-wide awareness of the and Russia allow them to roam freely through their common concern making it it easier to find joint territory or actively organize their onward journey, solutions. The fact that southern European countries which is currently rather unlikely. were among the first to assure Lithuania of their solidarity is a good and important sign.

On the other hand, it is important to protect the EU's external border and to build sufficient capacities to provide for the (still) arriving migrants properly and in accordance with (human) rights and statutes. It goes without saying that people who are actually entitled to asylum must be helped and this is not questioned by the Lithuanian government. However, the faster the test procedures are completed and the clearer it can be communicated to the outside world that Lithuania does not grant free entry and onward travel

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.

Jakob Wöllenstein, Elisabeth Bauer, Fausta Šimaitytė Foreign representative Office Belarus / Office Baltic States European and international cooperation. www.kas.de

[email protected] / [email protected]

The text of this work is licensed under “Creative Commons Attribution-Share under the same conditions 4.0 international” CC BY-SA 4.0 (available at: https://creativecom mons.org/licenses/ by-sa/4.0/legalcode.de)

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