NESTLÉ EYEING A2 MILK? LALA OFFER SHARES EX

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NESTLÉ EYEING A2 MILK? LALA OFFER SHARES EX ISSN 0956-8131 Est. 1989 September 1, 2021, Vol 33, No. 8 COPYRIGHT—All rights reserved, PHOTOCOPYING, SCANNING OR REPRODUCING ANY PART WITHOUT PERMISSION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED Dairy Industry Newsletter’s internet service is at: https://dairyindustrynewsletter.co.uk (see back page for full details) Singapore/NZ/UK US OLAM INGREDS TO SEEK LONDON LISTING DAIRY FOODS’ TOP 100 RIDE THE PANDEMIC Agri-commodity giant Olam International have confirmed plans to build Dairy Foods’ latest Dairy 100, the magazine’s ranking of North America’s their own dairy processing facility in Tokoroa, NZ, after selling their biggest dairy processors by turnover, is relatively unchanged from 15.2% stake in Open Country Dairy for over NZ$80m to the Talley’s the 2020 list, despite the pandemic disruption. DFA, last year’s no.1, Group. The plant will be operated by swapped places with the no.3, Nestlé America, who now head the list Olam subsidiary Olam Food Ingredi- Plant/conventional with sales of about $11bn in 2020, and Prairie Farms Dairy drop from ents, who last week announced plans no.9 to no.15 ($3.4bn). Unilever’s North American operations move PARALLEL GROWTH? to demerge and list on the London from no.13 up to no.9. Hershey’s Ice Cream were no.100 with sales Stock Exchange, with a secondary list- A new report, ‘Dairy Food of $134m (see back page for detailed analysis). ing in Singapore, early next year. OFI Global Market Report 2021: are targeting the premium segment of Covid-19 Impact and Re- Australia/NZ the LSE, suggesting a likely move into covery to 2030’, published NESTLÉ EYEING a2 MILK? the FTSE 100 with annual revenues of by Research and Markets, US$9.1bn and EBIT of $600m. After sees the global dairy market The a2 Milk Co last week posted post-tax profit down 79% in the year considering Amsterdam and Zurich reaching US$956.26bn by to June on revenues down 30% to $1.2bn, and warned the coming year they chose London for its access to a 2025, an average annual would be “challenging and volatile” as they grapple with disruption in “large, diverse investor base and deep growth rate of 7%. A report their key Chinese market. EBITDA was down 78% to $123m includ- liquidity”, and “because the food and by Transparency Market Re- ing writing down $108.6m worth of stock to take some of their older beverage industry is well understood search concludes the global inventory out of the market, and $10m in costs from their acquisition plant-based milk market will of Mataura Valley Milk. Swiss milk product giant Nestlé are believed to among UK investors”. Acquisitions are exceed $30bn by 2029—a be eyeing the company with insiders expecting a move could be im- expected. Temasek Holdings, Olam’s CAGR of around 8%. Their minent following publication of their results. majority shareholder, and Japan’s strategies for growth include • CHINA CONGESTION WORSENS—China’s new Covid policies Mitsubishi Corp., who have a 15% flavoured milks and more and restrictions on cargo flights and the movement of refrigerated and stake, will remain major investors in online retail channels. frozen goods, including dairy, are making existing supply chain bottle- OFI after the listing. Mark Lynch of necks worse, industry bodies and importers have warned. A key termi- corporate finance company Oghma nal at the Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third busiest, was closed Partners said a London listing “would provide a significant boost to the after a worker contracted Covid-19. Traders fear stricter precautionary sector that has lost many former FTSE companies over the past 20yrs measures will damage trade further as worsening port congestion off including Cadbury Schweppes, United Biscuits, Hillsdown Holdings, China’s east coast leaves dozens of container ships waiting offshore or Albert Fisher, Northern Foods and Unigate”. diverted. Chinese authorities claim to have found coronavirus traces in frozen imports. UK company news • CHINA IMPORTS—China’s July dairy imports were up 13% to 332,700t, with WMP EX-TOMLINSON’S WORKERS WIN COMPENSATION imports up 98% at 73,600t. More than 100 former Tomlinson’s Dairies staffers have won a legal battle over the way in which they were made redundant when the company collapsed in 2019. A total 331 jobs were lost Mexico when the Wrexham-based firm went into administration with debts of almost £30m. Of these, LALA OFFER SHARES 108 former staff instructed employment experts Simpson Millar to pursue legal action on their behalf. A judge has ruled Tomlinson’s failed to consult staff properly when making redundancies. Mexican dairy giant Grupo Lala’s offer for the The value of the claim, currently being calculated, is estimated in the region of £400,000 and purchase of all of their outstanding stock was will be made in the form of Protective Awards claimed from the Redundancy Payments Service, launched last week at 17.36 pesos per share. which is part of the Government Insolvency Service and provides up to 8wks’ pay under such This price constitutes a 20% premium over the circumstances, capped at £4,304 as the company was insolvent. Tomlinson’s, established in volume-weighted average price as traded on 1983 by brothers Philip and John Tomlinson on their family farm in North Wales, expanded in the Mexican Stock Exchange for the 30 trad- 2017 after getting £22m investment from Finance Wales, the Welsh Government and HSBC. A ing days prior to the announcement in May report by PwC found that the major expansion, on the back of a new contract with Sainsbury’s, of their plans to sell. The offer will expire on had led to additional debt, which then led to trading losses and their subsequent collapse. Sept 21 unless extended. In this issue Cotteswold Dairy 6 Halen Môn 6 Mataura Valley Milk 1 Nestlé 1,8 Saputo 8 Oatly 3 Sodiaal 4 A-Ware 7 Dairy Group 3 Harris Teeter 3 Milcobel 7 Olam Int. 1 The Modern Milkman 6 a2 Milk 1,7 Danone 3,4 Horizon Organic 3 Milk Specialties Global 3 Ornua Foods UK 6 Tomlinson’s 1 Arla UK 6 Ekoniva 5 J. S. Bailey 6 Miyoko’s Creamery 3 Outspan Nigeria 3 Van Dairy 3 Ausnutria 4 First Milk 7 Joseph Heler 7 Mondelēz International 4 Prima Cheese 6 WIEMO 4 Baladna 3 Glanbia 5 Kendamil 7 Mossgiel Farm 6 Rumiano Cheese 3 Züg Frischkäse AG 5 Castle Dairies 6 Grupo Lala 1 Kraft Heinz 3 Namibia Dairies 3 1 1 Markets & prices September 1, 2021, Vol 33, No. 8 GDT CONTRADICTIONS PERSIST US Cheddar 40lb blocks Weekly market prices @27.08.21 (US$/t) In the August 10 issue of DIN we called the turn in the market, stating 6650 6350 EU OBSERVATORY PRICES that the mood of EU traders had moved away from the current negativ- 2020 ity on the GDT and was striding out on 6050 (€/t) Aug 25 v. Aug 4 2021 2021 5750 GDT AMF high low its own in advance of any direction set 5450 (US$/t) 6300 ‘downunder’. Since then that positivity has 5150 Butter 3940 +0.3% 4130 3350 4850 WMP 3100 -0.6% 3220 2710 6050 increased and the strides have become 4550 wider, particularly for butter and SMP, SMP 2510 +1.2% 2600 2190 5800 4250 Cheddar 3250 +0.3% 3240 3080 and this undoubtedly helped to reverse 3950 5550 2021 the fortunes of the second August auction 3650 Whey powd. 950 = 1010 780 2021 5300 after a 4-month losing streak. The increase 3350 US QUOTES, CHICAGO MERC.** 3050 5050 may not have been great, at 0.3% overall, ($/t) Aug 27 v. Aug 6 2021 2021 2750 but butter, Cheddar and AMF all posted 2450 high low 4800 decent rises. EU butter is now closing in on 2150 Butter (AA) 3750 +3.3% 4085 2835 4550 2020 €4,000/t, with Dutch origin increasing for 1850 SMP (grdA) 2810 +1.1% 2860 2470 Jul Jan Apr Jun Oct Feb Mar Dec Aug Sep Nov 4300 the fourth week in a row by another €40/t May Cheddar 4050 to €3,960/t—a far cry from the €3,700/t —40lb blcks 3865 +7.2% 4215 3265 German SMP it was heading towards in late July. That —500lb bar. 3230 +12% 3960 3075 3800 (€/t) 2700 Jul Jan Apr Jun Oct Conv. from US ¢/lb@1 tonne = 2,205lb Feb €4,000/t is a level which buyers will push ** Mar Sep Dec May Aug No v against, but will struggle to counter given 2600 the current milk supply situation in Germany, France and the UK where all are struggling with volumes. In the UK the past 3yrs have seen the 2500 2021 EU market indicators trough this week or next due to a significant change in calving patterns, 2400 OFFICIAL DUTCH PRICES while France’s is generally also next week and Germany’s later in week STAY STRONG 2300 40-45 (early Oct-Nov). Feed prices are also such that few farmers will be The Dutch Dairy Board/ZuivelNL 2200 feeding any concentrates to lift yields, and will be relying for winter milk last week increased all five of their on the variable forage they’ve cut. In the UK that forage looks good on 2100 official dairy commodity prices: but- paper where it has been analysed, but there are anecdotal reports that 2020 2000 ter was up €40 to €3,960/t, WMP it isn’t feeding out and performing as well as the analysis would suggest.
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