Future of Sudanese Regime at Stake As Protests Continue
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UK £2 Issue 187, Year 4 EU €2.50 January 6, 2019 www.thearabweekly.com Turkey Questioning The after US the ‘Deal of Lebanese Syria exit the Century’ impasse Page 16 Page 15 Page 11 Future of Sudanese regime at stake as protests continue ► Key political, security and partisan figures are increasingly keeping their distance from the regime after it failed to quell unrest despite bloody repression. Mohamed Aboelfadl 37 had been killed — and scores in- jured. Sudan sources said the small rul- Cairo ing circle in Khartoum was looking for a solution that may not neces- eeks of protest in Su- sarily preserve al-Bashir’s status as dan raise questions the unchallenged leader. They said about the future of al-Bashir has become a liability W Omar al-Bashir’s re- even for his supporters. “He was gime. The unrest, which was trig- good at jumping over internal hur- gered by price increases, evolved dles but the economic hurdle had into a full-fledged crisis challeng- presented him with an impossible ing al-Bashir’s rule in a manner challenge,” said one source. unprecedented since his 1989 Al-Bashir seems to have lost coup. many of his assets even at the heart Observers of Sudanese af- of power. Key political, security fairs said the protests may have and partisan figures are increas- changed the rules for Sudan and ingly keeping their distance from al-Bashir. The issue is not whether the regime after it failed to quell al-Bashir can run for another term unrest despite bloody repression. in office, even if the ruling National Al-Bashir’s shrinking power Congress Party and the parliament base was reflected in a statement were to consider constitutional from 22 parties close to his regime, amendments allowing al-Bashir to which, under the banner of the stay in power, because of the re- “National Front for Change,” called cent cycle of unrest. for him to step down. The new terms of the debate The opposition, accused of op- Bleak forecasts. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir at the presidential palace in Khartoum, December 31. within the political class are wheth- portunistically riding on the up- (AFP) er saving the regime or Sudan’s sta- heaval, has co-opted the street bility should take precedence over protests. The upheaval also boost- leaving room for al-Bashir’s politi- ed historical opposition forces that abandon al-Bashir’s sinking ship.” current intensity.” closer ties with Turkey but Ankara cal survival considerations. had refused to work with the re- Many factors indicate that a She said that “the Islamist abandoned him. The Sudanese rul- “Al-Bashir’s political future is gime. smooth change from within the re- forces, in implicit complicity with er also failed to take advantage of now in the hands of the army, Amani al-Taweel, director of the gime could be an option and could some of the army leaders, are positive signals from Washington. which has not yet given up on him, African programme at Al-Ahram keep power in the hands of the rul- leaning towards the choice of re- Observers of Sudan said a soft as al-Bashir still has some sway Centre for Political and Strategic ing National Congress Party, con- moving al-Bashir at the earliest transition is the best way to defuse over the heads of most units inside Studies in Cairo, said that “what sidered the political arm of Sudan’s opportunity but the possibility of the mounting tensions and pre- the army since he had made sure has helped the political forces [op- Islamist movement. reaching new understandings with vent the crisis from evolving into to appoint people who were loyal posing al-Bashir] is their elabora- Experts said the radical wing of al-Bashir might lead them to back a cataclysm that could destroy the to him,” said Hiba al-Bashbishi, a tion of a road map for [political] the Islamist movement, notably off a little.” country. professor of political science at the change and succeeding in convinc- the Muslim Brotherhood, is jock- Sources in Egypt said wariness Taweel predicted that “the con- Institute of African Studies at Cairo ing the demonstrators to adopt it. eying for power as the regime is about a possible Islamist role in tinuation of the demonstrations, University. This has led a number of parties to weakened by the protests. the unrest explains why Cairo has signalled by Sudan’s regional However, senior officers, Bash- “The demonstrations are fuelled expressed support for al-Bashir. weakness, the absence of interna- bishi said, would have to make Hiba al-Bashbishi, by the Brotherhood and this rep- Despite that expression of support, tional support for al-Bashir and the sure that any role of the military a professor of political resents a silent coup against Presi- Sudan’s regional and international fraying of domestic bases of sup- science at the Institute “would have to be carefully bal- dent al-Bashir,” Bashbishi said, alliances have weakened tremen- port, will force the Sudanese leader of African Studies at anced against the risk of starting a Cairo University adding: “The relationship between dously. to make concessions but that won’t civil war.” the Muslim Brotherhood and the Al-Bashir’s wavering stances be sufficient to keep him in power.” Protests have left many dead — “Al-Bashir’s political future leaders of the units inside the army have led to growing isolation of his 19 in the official government count is now in the hands of the could decide the continuation or government, experts said. He was, Mohamed Aboelfadl is an while Amnesty International said army.” not of the demonstrations at their for instance, very keen on building Egyptian writer. The Arab world braces for more uphill tasks in 2019 Caline Malek Strategy Forum in Dubai in Novem- not reactive.” and countries,” he warned. He said ber. Reflecting the view of many in Judeh spoke against over-reli- the new generation of terrorists, the region, he added: “The Pales- ance on the West, highlighting the especially those bred by the Syrian Abu Dhabi tinian case is a way to resolve a lot need to set Arab goals and partici- conflict, could wreak even more of conflicts, especially in the midst pate in solving ongoing crises by havoc in the Arab world. ddressing the Arab word’s of the instability happening here.” finding realistic and implementa- “There is no solution within a multitude of critical chal- Ayad Alawi, former prime min- ble solutions. “This lack of Arab year because the problems are lenges in 2019 will require ister of Iraq, said many Arab coun- initiatives on Arab issues [has cre- deep-rooted,” Fahmy said. “We A will and vision from with- tries are in dire need of political ated] a vacuum filled by non-Arab have to raise our voices. There is a in the region, experts and former and economic reform. “Countries powers or Western powers,” he misconception that we need to all senior officials said. like Jordan and Egypt have good said. announce in the same tone or voice From Syria and the Palestin- institutions but we can see they what we want but I call on all Arab ian territories to Yemen, Libya and still lack the economic immunisa- There has been a serious countries to express their vision of Iraq, conflicts and tensions ravag- tion to face the challenges facing the future. 60-70% of the concepts ing the region have intensified in the region,” he said. lack of communication will be [the same] but this is better recent years. Nabil Fahmy, former foreign among Arabs about the than the absence of any Arab voice. Nasser Judeh, former Jorda- minister of Egypt, said non-Arab challenges ahead. We need change and a common nian minister of foreign affairs, actors are playing a disproportion- Arab vision.” said there has been a serious lack ate role due to the void Arabs have Alawi predicted a third genera- of communication among Arabs left. He noted that Israel, Turkey tion of terrorists following the ex- Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly Flawed societies. A girl from of about the challenges ahead. and Iran are wielding “a lot of in- tremist wave from the Islamic State contributor in Abu Dhabi. an impoverished Iraqi family “We are not conversing enough fluence on the Arab world in an il- and al-Qaeda. “What is coming is reportedly living on $5 a day at and it’s very important we discuss logical way. For us to be politically greater and it will cause great dam- See Editorial: The challenges and her home in the Iraqi city matters more,” he said at the Arab active, we need to be proactive and age to the stability of our region promises of 2019 P6 of Najaf. (AFP) 2 January 6, 2019 News & Analysis Gulf Houthi diversion of aid, continued truce violations complicate Yemen situation Saleh Baidhani “have the right to sue the WFP” and that the organisation was sending food that was not fit for Aden consumption, which the Houthi militia refused to receive. fter initially angrily deny- The WFP warned that it had “no ing accusations of stealing option but to cease working with World Food Programme those who have been conspiring to A (WFP) aid intended for deprive large numbers of vulner- Yemenis in need, the Iran-allied able people of the food on which Houthi rebels said they would in- they depend.” It added that it had vestigate the allegations. “photographic and other evidence A WFP report December 31 said of trucks illicitly removing food that in areas controlled by the from designated food distribution Houthi rebels, including Sana’a, centres.” food aid intended for Yemeni civil- Yemeni journalist Ramah al- ians was being sold by the militia.