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Page 16 Page 15 Page 11 Future of Sudanese regime at stake as protests continue ► Key political, security and partisan figures are increasingly keeping their distance from the regime after it failed to quell unrest despite bloody repression.

Mohamed Aboelfadl 37 had been killed — and scores in- jured. Sudan sources said the small rul- Cairo ing circle in Khartoum was looking for a solution that may not neces- eeks of protest in Su- sarily preserve al-Bashir’s status as dan raise questions the unchallenged leader. They said about the future of al-Bashir has become a liability W Omar al-Bashir’s re- even for his supporters. “He was gime. The unrest, which was trig- good at jumping over internal hur- gered by price increases, evolved dles but the economic hurdle had into a full-fledged crisis challeng- presented him with an impossible ing al-Bashir’s rule in a manner challenge,” said one source. unprecedented since his 1989 Al-Bashir seems to have lost coup. many of his assets even at the heart Observers of Sudanese af- of power. Key political, security fairs said the protests may have and partisan figures are increas- changed the rules for Sudan and ingly keeping their distance from al-Bashir. The issue is not whether the regime after it failed to quell al-Bashir can run for another term unrest despite bloody repression. in office, even if the ruling National Al-Bashir’s shrinking power Congress Party and the parliament base was reflected in a statement were to consider constitutional from 22 parties close to his regime, amendments allowing al-Bashir to which, under the banner of the stay in power, because of the re- “National Front for Change,” called cent cycle of unrest. for him to step down. The new terms of the debate The opposition, accused of op- Bleak forecasts. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir at the presidential palace in Khartoum, December 31. within the political class are wheth- portunistically riding on the up- (AFP) er saving the regime or Sudan’s sta- heaval, has co-opted the street bility should take precedence over protests. The upheaval also boost- leaving room for al-Bashir’s politi- ed historical opposition forces that abandon al-Bashir’s sinking ship.” current intensity.” closer ties with Turkey but Ankara cal survival considerations. had refused to work with the re- Many factors indicate that a She said that “the Islamist abandoned him. The Sudanese rul- “Al-Bashir’s political future is gime. smooth change from within the re- forces, in implicit complicity with er also failed to take advantage of now in the hands of the army, Amani al-Taweel, director of the gime could be an option and could some of the army leaders, are positive signals from Washington. which has not yet given up on him, African programme at Al-Ahram keep power in the hands of the rul- leaning towards the choice of re- Observers of Sudan said a soft as al-Bashir still has some sway Centre for Political and Strategic ing National Congress Party, con- moving al-Bashir at the earliest transition is the best way to defuse over the heads of most units inside Studies in Cairo, said that “what sidered the political arm of Sudan’s opportunity but the possibility of the mounting tensions and pre- the army since he had made sure has helped the political forces [op- Islamist movement. reaching new understandings with vent the crisis from evolving into to appoint people who were loyal posing al-Bashir] is their elabora- Experts said the radical wing of al-Bashir might lead them to back a cataclysm that could destroy the to him,” said Hiba al-Bashbishi, a tion of a road map for [political] the Islamist movement, notably off a little.” country. professor of political science at the change and succeeding in convinc- the Muslim Brotherhood, is jock- Sources in Egypt said wariness Taweel predicted that “the con- Institute of African Studies at Cairo ing the demonstrators to adopt it. eying for power as the regime is about a possible Islamist role in tinuation of the demonstrations, University. This has led a number of parties to weakened by the protests. the unrest explains why Cairo has signalled by Sudan’s regional However, senior officers, Bash- “The demonstrations are fuelled expressed support for al-Bashir. weakness, the absence of interna- bishi said, would have to make Hiba al-Bashbishi, by the Brotherhood and this rep- Despite that expression of support, tional support for al-Bashir and the sure that any role of the military a professor of political resents a silent coup against Presi- Sudan’s regional and international fraying of domestic bases of sup- science at the Institute “would have to be carefully bal- dent al-Bashir,” Bashbishi said, alliances have weakened tremen- port, will force the Sudanese leader of African Studies at anced against the risk of starting a Cairo University adding: “The relationship between dously. to make concessions but that won’t civil war.” the Muslim Brotherhood and the Al-Bashir’s wavering stances be sufficient to keep him in power.” Protests have left many dead — “Al-Bashir’s political future leaders of the units inside the army have led to growing isolation of his 19 in the official government count is now in the hands of the could decide the continuation or government, experts said. He was, Mohamed Aboelfadl is an while Amnesty International said army.” not of the demonstrations at their for instance, very keen on building Egyptian writer. The Arab world braces for more uphill tasks in 2019 Caline Malek Strategy Forum in Dubai in Novem- not reactive.” and countries,” he warned. He said ber. Reflecting the view of many in Judeh spoke against over-reli- the new generation of terrorists, the region, he added: “The Pales- ance on the West, highlighting the especially those bred by the Syrian Abu Dhabi tinian case is a way to resolve a lot need to set Arab goals and partici- conflict, could wreak even more of conflicts, especially in the midst pate in solving ongoing crises by havoc in the Arab world. ddressing the Arab word’s of the instability happening here.” finding realistic and implementa- “There is no solution within a multitude of critical chal- Ayad Alawi, former prime min- ble solutions. “This lack of Arab year because the problems are lenges in 2019 will require ister of Iraq, said many Arab coun- initiatives on Arab issues [has cre- deep-rooted,” Fahmy said. “We A will and vision from with- tries are in dire need of political ated] a vacuum filled by non-Arab have to raise our voices. There is a in the region, experts and former and economic reform. “Countries powers or Western powers,” he misconception that we need to all senior officials said. like Jordan and Egypt have good said. announce in the same tone or voice From Syria and the Palestin- institutions but we can see they what we want but I call on all Arab ian territories to Yemen, Libya and still lack the economic immunisa- There has been a serious countries to express their vision of Iraq, conflicts and tensions ravag- tion to face the challenges facing the future. 60-70% of the concepts ing the region have intensified in the region,” he said. lack of communication will be [the same] but this is better recent years. Nabil Fahmy, former foreign among Arabs about the than the absence of any Arab voice. Nasser Judeh, former Jorda- minister of Egypt, said non-Arab challenges ahead. We need change and a common nian minister of foreign affairs, actors are playing a disproportion- Arab vision.” said there has been a serious lack ate role due to the void Arabs have Alawi predicted a third genera- of communication among Arabs left. He noted that Israel, Turkey tion of terrorists following the ex- Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly Flawed societies. A girl from of about the challenges ahead. and Iran are wielding “a lot of in- tremist wave from the Islamic State contributor in Abu Dhabi. an impoverished Iraqi family “We are not conversing enough fluence on the Arab world in an il- and al-Qaeda. “What is coming is reportedly living on $5 a day at and it’s very important we discuss logical way. For us to be politically greater and it will cause great dam- See Editorial: The challenges and her home in the Iraqi city matters more,” he said at the Arab active, we need to be proactive and age to the stability of our region promises of 2019 P6 of Najaf. (AFP) 2 January 6, 2019 News & Analysis Gulf Houthi diversion of aid, continued truce violations complicate Yemen situation

Saleh Baidhani “have the right to sue the WFP” and that the organisation was sending food that was not fit for Aden consumption, which the Houthi militia refused to receive. fter initially angrily deny- The WFP warned that it had “no ing accusations of stealing option but to cease working with World Food Programme those who have been conspiring to A (WFP) aid intended for deprive large numbers of vulner- Yemenis in need, the Iran-allied able people of the food on which Houthi rebels said they would in- they depend.” It added that it had vestigate the allegations. “photographic and other evidence A WFP report December 31 said of trucks illicitly removing food that in areas controlled by the from designated food distribution Houthi rebels, including Sana’a, centres.” food aid intended for Yemeni civil- Yemeni journalist Ramah al- ians was being sold by the militia. Jabri said the position of the WFP “This conduct amounts to the reflects its impatience because of stealing of food from the mouths systematic looting of relief aid. He of hungry people,” WFP Executive said the Houthis were diverting aid Director David Beasley said in a to its fighters as well as its support- statement. “At a time when chil- ers and families of militia mem- dren are dying in Yemen because bers. Whatever was left was then they haven’t enough food to eat, sent to the local markets for sale, that is an outrage. This criminal he claimed. behaviour must stop immediate- The Houthi statement said di- l y.” verting aid instead of delivering it to needy civilians would be a “dis- graceful and criminal act that the The position of the WFP Supreme Political Council categor- reflects its impatience ically rejects.” because of systematic The statement said the militia’s Ministry of Planning and Interna- looting of relief aid. Swept under the rug. Yemeni men carry food aid provided by the World Food Programme tional Cooperation would investi- in Sana’a. (AFP) The United Nations estimates gate and that it condemned “any that 20 million Yemenis are food tampering with the lifeline of citi- insecure. zens who are living in desperate in Sweden to reach an agreement ates lodged an official complaint The United Nations is yet to pub- The head of the Supreme Revo- conditions.” on ending the civil war. Negotia- with the UN Security Council licly address the coalition’s allega- lutionary Council, Mohammed Ali The ceasefire in Hodeidah con- tions resulted in the ceasefire and charging that the Houthis carried tions. UN Special Envoy to Yemen al-Houthi, initially said the Hou- tinued to officially hold despite goodwill gestures such as prisoner out attacks, including sniper fire Martin Griffiths travelled between this had “read the WFP executive accusations from the Arab coali- exchanges. and medium-range ballistic missile Sana’a and Riyadh meeting with director’s statement with great tion fighting the Houthis that the However, a report from Al Ara- launches in Hodeidah, a diplomat the Houthis and the internation- astonishment” and accused the militia had repeatedly broken the biya English in Dubai said the told Agence France-Presse. ally recognised government to ar- WFP of “shirking its responsibili- truce. coalition accused the militia of The UN envoys accused the Hou- range further peace talks for later ties” and that the accusations of Representatives of the interna- breaching the truce 19 times over a this of placing barricades and dig- this month. aid stealing were not “backed with tionally recognised Yemeni gov- 24-hour period. ging trenches in Hodeidah, which documents or evidence.” ernment of Abd Rabbo Mansour UN envoys from Yemen, Saudi Agence France-Presse corroborat- Saleh Baidhani is an Arab Weekly Al-Houthi said rebel officials Hadi and the Houthi rebels met Arabia and the United Arab Emir- ed with video footage. contributor in Yemen. Viewpoint Seeing no light at the end of Yemen’s tunnel 018 was a difficult year How can a Yemeni group raise for Yemen. It ended with such a slogan and ignore the fact Khairallah negotiations in Sweden that there are Yemenis who are Khairallah that resulted in an agree- Jews? ment about Hodeidah The Houthis stand by their and its port. Under the famous slogan “Death to Israel 2deal, the Houthis would hand the and damn the Jews,” while port to the United Nations, which their puppeteer, Iranian Foreign would ensure that aid gets to the Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Yemeni citizens. tells French newspaper Le Point: Will the Houthis give up “No Iranian official has called for Hodeidah or is their goal just the destruction of Israel and for gaining time, given that the most obliterating it one of these days.” important element of the deal is There seems to be enough the presence of the United Nations justification for Griffiths to in this strategic port on the Red fragment the Yemeni crisis but Sea? the question that will arise is The Houthis entered, through whether there is a reason to the Sweden negotiations, into a limit the representation of the deal set up by UN Special Envoy anti-government opposition to for Yemen Martin Griffiths. He one rebel group, which is just seems to have adopted a strategy buying time. The goal of this of splitting the Yemeni crisis into group is to set up a pro-Iranian small issues to be resolved one by entity in northern Yemen, with one until reaching a final solution. the venerable city of Sana’a as its It seems that Griffiths is avoiding capital. directly engaging in negotiations The Houthis are procrastinating for a comprehensive solution lest and buying time, period. They his mission meets the same fate as Biding their time. Houthi fighters ride on the back of a truck as probably believe that what matters those of his predecessors as special they withdraw from the Red Sea city of Hodeidah, December 29. to Griffiths above all else is placing envoys for Yemen, Jamal Benomar (Reuters) the port of Hodeidah under UN and Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed. supervision. The question of what Griffiths has halted the military cannot ignore that the UN envoy The big problem has become the will later happen in Yemen is left escalation in Hodeidah, where has laid the foundations for the legitimate forces camp. There is open to how things might evolve. battles between the Houthis and presence of UN forces in Hodeidah. a need to reorganise to change The Yemeni crisis seems likely the internationally recognised If Griffiths split the Yemeni the balance of military power to go on for several years because government forces have subsided. crisis, reducing military escalation in Yemen and to represent the the option of a comprehensive Before the Sweden phase, the and establishing foundations for different Yemeni forces that reject settlement is delayed. Despite that government had made considerable the presence of “blue helmets” the Iranian project. It’s as simple there is no fighting going on right progress on the ground but that in Hodeidah, it is inevitable to as that. now in Yemen, there is no reason The Yemeni crisis didn’t mean that a military victory ask whether this price justifies The legitimate forces camp must to be optimistic. Everything seems seems likely to go in Hodeidah was imminent. recognising the Houthis as another be restructured to effectively stop to indicate that the Houthis are on for several years This relative ceasefire remains legitimate authority in Yemen. the Houthis and to reach a stage at preparing for a long stay in Sana’a Griffiths’ first achievement but he This “legitimacy” of the Houthis which Sana’a and its vicinity are no and its vicinity. They are borrowing because the option hasn’t achieved any breakthrough has turned into a burden on the longer the victims of a backward a page from Hamas and its reign in of a comprehensive on the issue of prisoner exchange Arab alliance, which has given a project. This project relies only on Gaza. between the Houthis and the pro- lot to end the Iranian project in hollow slogans such as “Death to settlement is government forces or on reopening Yemen. The Houthis are, of course, America. Death to Israel. Damn the Khairallah Khairallah is a delayed. Sana’a airport. In all fairness, we the spearhead of this project. Jews. Victory for Islam.” Lebanese writer. January 6, 2019 3 News & Analysis Gulf Saudi government reshuffle designed to address the country’s challenges

The Arab Weekly staff and the heads of the committees for tourism, entertainment and sports. Veteran diplomat Adel al-Jubeir London was replaced as foreign minister, a position he had held since April sweeping Saudi govern- 2015, with Ibrahim al-Assaf, who ment reshuffle was intend- served as finance minister from ed to help Riyadh face chal- 1996-2016. Jubeir is to become min- A lenges that Saudi Arabia ister of State for Foreign Affairs and expects domestically and abroad in a member of the council of minis- 2019. ters. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz The Saudi Foreign Ministry’s Al Saud issued royal decrees De- Twitter page said that ministry cember 27 that rearranged the cabi- would “take up the management of net and the Council of Political and the Foreign Affairs Ministry in all its Security Affairs. actions and the leadership of its de- velopment programmes.” The new Saudi Prince Abdullah position of minister of state for for- bin Bandar bin Abdulaziz eign affairs will “exclusively occupy itself with political and diplomatic will head the National actions.” Guard and Khalid bin Jubeir had become a “minister Qarar al-Harbi was without a portfolio,” a law profes- appointed head of sor told the online Saudi news site national security. Sabq. “Jubeir will be far removed from “The reshuffle is designed to en- the ministry’s administrative work. sure that the cabinet has the best He has been discharged [so he can combination of the experience and devote himself] to specific work, know-how to meet the needs of to take advantage of his diplomatic the kingdom over the coming four abilities, his skills and strong lan- A focus on security and foreign policy. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud leads a cabinet years and strengthen our relations guage [skills],” he said. meeting in Riyadh, January 1. (dpa) with friendly countries around the Saudi Prince Abdullah bin Bandar world,” a Saudi government state- bin Abdulaziz, who was appointed ment said. deputy governor of Mecca last year, changes to fallout from the killing bolstering government procedures policy space) that have been on the The Council of Political and Se- will head the National Guard and of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and institutions.” table for a while.” curity Affairs, which is headed by Khalid bin Qarar al-Harbi was ap- last October. However, the reshuffle “It’s natural for people to try and Also, the kingdom’s council of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin pointed head of national security. was expected due to the expiration associate any developments with ministers will no longer be under Salman bin Abdulaziz, was initiated Harbi has had several government of the government’s 4-year man- the Khashoggi tragedy but it’s dif- the umbrella of the royal court, in 2015 and included the kingdom’s posts, including head of the special date. ficult to see any of these specific which has been the case since a head of intelligence and ministers emergency forces in Medina and “You cannot delink Khashoggi changes as resulting specifically June 2011 decree by King Abdullah of foreign affairs, information and commander of the special emer- from any developments, though from that.” Ali Shihabi, head of the bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Islamic affairs. After the decree, the gency forces, local reports stated. government reshuffles are custom- Arabia Foundation in Washington, “This is a major change,” Minister body will include the minister of in- Eman al-Mutairi, the new as- ary every four years,” Mohammed said in a tweet the day the reshuffle of State Mohammed al-Shaikh told terior, the head of state security and sistant commerce minister, is the Alyahya, a senior fellow at the was announced. Bloomberg News. “From a govern- the national security adviser, Al Ri- second Saudi woman to serve in Gulf Research Centre told Agence Shihabi said: “The recent restruc- ance point of view, it’s better to go yadh Daily reported. a senior cabinet position, almost France-Presse. turing of the intelligence agency back to the original model under Saudi media reports said 16 offi- a year after Tamader bint Youssef “The reshuffle saw the appoint- was a direct result of the Khashog- which the royal court handled the cials had been dismissed, including al-Rammah was appointed deputy ment of some young princes but gi murder but otherwise today’s affairs of his majesty the king as the head of the National Guard, the minister of labour and social devel- also veteran statesmen to positions changes also address structural is- sovereign and another court that ministers of education, informa- opment. of power. There is an effort to bal- sues (like the need to increase the handled his affairs as the head of tion, the head of national security Some outlets attributed the ance the fast pace of reform with senior bandwidth in the foreign the executive branch.” Trump’s turnarounds have implications for Gulf countries

Sabahat Khan be paid for the Obama administra- America’s longest war — which has ensuring it does not become an- throughs at a timely juncture. The tion’s approach to the Syrian con- proven even more costly in blood other breeding ground for terror- geostrategic backdrop to Afghan flict, which was lethargic and in- and money. Pointing out his dissat- ists. peace talks means that the pros- Dubai decisive in its earliest stages. As a isfaction with the senior military There is, however, another driv- pects for a negotiated settlement result, the United States could not leadership’s performance in Af- ing motivation to Trump’s moves. that ends the Taliban insurgency he final days of 2018 saw US effectively secure any advantage. ghanistan, Trump criticised them Pat Shanahan, acting US defence are greatly enhanced. It is also President Donald Trump US influence in Syria had become for taking “all the money they secretary, in his first meeting with a scenario in which the roles of make important announce- another expensive commitment, wanted” but not delivering on ex- leaders of the US military branch- America’s Gulf partners, such as T ments that significantly re- by Trump’s calculations, where pectations. es had one underlying message Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are also orient US policy in the Middle East any gains were only possible in Afghanistan under President to them: focus on “China, China, greatly enhanced. and the nature of its overseas mili- the long term. At best, the United George W. Bush and several times China.” tary campaigns. States could play the role of a spoil- under President Barack Obama The 2018 National Defence Strat- The US military’s pullout of Syr- er in Syria but its dependence on saw repeated cycles of troop surges egy, which Shanahan was deeply Gulf states are well ia and drawdown in Afghanistan a tactical alignment with Syrian and drawdowns but the Taliban in- involved in putting together, iden- placed to preserve their were followed by the resignation Kurdish militias was coming at the surgency has proven itself resilient tifies competition with China and interests and are likely of US Secretary of Defence James cost of forcing Turkey into deeper against the United States’ over- Russia as the United States’ “prin- to find new Mattis and represented a signifi- cooperation with Russia and Iran. whelming firepower. A peace set- cipal priorities” that “require both opportunities to project cant but unexpected turn of events Trump has also been increas- tlement appears to offer the most increased and sustained invest- their influence even that have important implications ingly critical of the US military desirable scenario for the United ment.” further at a time regional for America’s partners in the Gulf. involvement in Afghanistan — States to pursue its interests and The United States has, for sev- competitors face great Mattis had a nuanced under- eral years, pursued greater burden- uncertainty. standing of regional dynamics and sharing with its partners around brought with him strong relation- the world and its latest decisions ships established from his time must be considered in that con- The past few months have seen commanding forces in Iraq and text. Trump’s military pullout from sustained US pressure on Iran and Afghanistan but Trump has styled Syria could well be a prelude to a the decision to begin a phased pull- his presidency on a no-nonsense, change in US policy for Iran, i.e. out of American troops from Syria business-first approach that is un- moving from containment to con- could be an ominous development afraid to abruptly make big deci- frontation. for Tehran. sions. For the Gulf, the endgames in The Islamic State will struggle to Dismissing Syria as nothing but Syria and Afghanistan have impli- revive itself in the face of intense “sand and death,” Trump framed cations for their strategic interests regional military assaults but Iran’s his decision to pull out US troops as well as the regional balance of long-term presence in Syria is as from the theatre as a way of cutting power — in particular vis-a-vis Iran doubtful, considering regional sen- loose from what he views as Amer- and its regional alliance. However, sitivities and opposition. ica’s “endless wars.” It is a decision Gulf states are well placed to pre- In any case, the Saudi-led mod- that will have a strategic effect on serve their interests and are likely erate Arab bloc would be expected the endgame in Syria and poten- to find new opportunities to pro- to play a crucial role in rebuilding tially open new space to counter ject their influence even further at Syria and assisting in a reconcilia- Iran in the region. a time regional competitors face tion process there. Syria has remained a gridlocked great uncertainty. theatre of conflict but the Rus- The United Arab Emirates has Sabahat Khan is based sian military intervention in 2015 hosted talks with the Taliban — in Dubai and maintains proved decisive in swinging the supported by Pakistan, the United a cross-disciplinary focus in momentum back favourably for On firm ground. A Saudi soldier stands guard in Riyadh with the States and Saudi Arabia — and international security, defence the Assad regime. It was a price to Saudi and US flags in the background. (AP) helped broker diplomatic break- policy and strategic issues. 4 January 6, 2019 2018-2019 in Transition Iraq Some progress but also political deadlock in Iraq

Manuel Langendorf new parliament. Most parties used the battle against ISIS and pledged to create jobs and fight corruption London in their campaign platforms. While the military campaign n December 2017, Iraq an- against ISIS served as a force of nounced the defeat of the Is- unity, the economic situation did lamic State (ISIS). While ISIS the opposite. As mass protests or- I lost control of major population ganised by Shia cleric Muqtada centres in Iraq, the country’s poli- al-Sadr showed, many Iraqis were tics remain in gridlock. fed up with the political status In the victory declaration of De- quo. Those taking to the streets cember 9, 2017, Iraqi Prime Min- demanded jobs, an end to corrup- ister Haider al-Abadi praised the tion and the sectarian system that achievement of Iraq’s “heroic governed Iraqi politics since 2003. armed forces.” “Our enemy wanted Al-Sadr called for key ministries to to kill our civilisation but we have be led by technocrats instead of po- won through our unity and our de- litical actors. Long-simmering grievances. Iraqis shout slogans during protests demanding better public services termination,” he said. However, the elections produced and jobs in Basra, last September. (AP) By the end of 2017, a coalition of a stalemate that paralysed the po- Iraqi and international forces had litical system. Iraq moved from se- pushed ISIS out of all major popu- curity crisis to political crisis. Iraq expert at the University of Ex- Iran’s influence in Iraq, and Fatah, International Studies reported that lation centres in Iraq. ISIS once Sairoon, an alliance led by al- eter, citing a lack of a deep-rooted dominated by Iran-backed Shia overall attacks in Iraq had dropped controlled territory approximately Sadr, won the most seats in parlia- democratic system and mistrust groups, are a case in point. in 2018 but attacks against govern- the size of the United Kingdom, ment but fell far short of a majority. among political factions and differ- How much is at stake was on ment targets increased in compari- ruling over 8 million people in Iraq Abadi, Washington’s favourite for ent communities. stark display when another hot son to 2017. and Syria. another term as prime minister, Abdul-Mahdi’s and parliament’s summer plagued Iraq in 2018. Fed It was not all doom and gloom, came in third, with Fatah, a coali- inability to fill the posts showed up with a lack of services and jobs, however. Despite the threat posed In northern and western tion of Shia groups led by Hadi al- the enduring power of the political people took to the streets, especial- by ISIS insurgent attacks, the Unit- Amiri, the second strongest force. parties, Renad Mansour, a research ly in oil-rich southern Iraq. Basra, ed Nations in November reported Iraq, many areas After political wrangling and dis- fellow at Chatham House, said ear- the country’s main oil export hub, the lowest monthly casualty fig- liberated from ISIS are in cussions behind closed doors, the lier this year. In December, Abdul- became a focal point of discontent. ures in Iraq in six years, with 41 ci- dire need of two most powerful forces agreed Mahdi said he was free to choose Months after mass protests erupted vilians killed. reconstruction. on Abdul-Mahdi, a former vice- eight or nine ministers, “the rest in the southern city in July, people In a sign of the improved security president and oil minister, to be are the results of political agree- went out to protest again in De- situation in Baghdad, the govern- Addressing the nation on “vic- prime minister. In October, Abdul- ments,” including the defence and cember, vowing to continue until ment opened parts of the Green tory day” this year, new Iraqi Prime Mahdi managed to get 14 of his interior ministry positions. their demands were met. Zone, a highly fortified area that Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi said: ministerial candidates through “Adel Abdul-Mahdi is powerless In northern and western Iraq, is the seat of many government “This is a day that we are all proud parliament, including several tech- because he doesn’t have any back- many areas liberated from ISIS buildings and foreign embassies, to of, when our courageous country nocrats. Three more ministers were ing,” said Seloom. “Nobody is re- are in dire need of reconstruction. the public for the first time. defeated the enemies of peace.” appointed in December. ally behind him.” The UN refugee agency said more “I hope my daughter’s future It was clear in December 2017 However, key posts, including The way the elections and the than 2.8 million people remain will be open as the Green Zone,” that ISIS was not fully defeated the sovereign ministries of interior post-election power struggle have displaced within the country, with a parliamentary adviser, who was but had transformed into an insur- and defence, remained vacant. played out, however, presented a approximately 1.9 million having watching the opening with his gency. Nevertheless, after the mili- “Since 2003, Iraq has been trying change in Iraq’s political system. been displaced since 2014. daughter in December, told Agence tary success, there were hopes that with the help of the international More than ever before, the real In a threat to both civilians and France-Presse. 2018 would bring reconstruction community to create a new demo- competition played out in the same security forces, ISIS militants have and political progress. cratic system and it has not been sects. The disagreements between carried out attacks in various parts Manuel Langendorf is a writer On May 12, 2018, Iraqis elected a easy,” said Muhanad Seloom, an al-Sadr, who has voiced criticism of of Iraq. The Centre for Strategic and focusing on the MENA region. What average Iraqis want for 2019

Azhar al-Rubaie love of peace, tolerance and broth- my identity regardless of race, erhood and hopes for the New Year. religion or orientation, I want a The fireworks began when the constitution that achieves all our Istanbul clock struck midnight December rights because, as Iraqis, we are all 31. Iraqis celebrated from Basra, the equals.” 018 has ended and still Iraqi most southern point of the country, “I hope there will be a strong gov- cities freed from the Islamic to Dohuk in the north, under heavy ernment to keep Iraq and its people State (ISIS) are not rebuilt security and despite prominent living safely and here I do not mean 2 and what Mosul received for muftis saying that participation in strong in muscles but a brawny reconstruction is not a guarantee it New Year’s celebrations is not per- government that has a strong will- will return to what it once was. missible for Muslims. ingness to make Iraq great,” said In 2014, when ISIS emerged in “I wish 2019 [to] be better than Hassan Madhloom, a journalist in Iraq, tens of thousands of Chris- 2018,” said Ahmed Sadiq, a resident Basra. tians fled their homes and went of Basra. “I hope the one who leads “And about Basra, I hope [it] will into Basra. Thousands of families Iraq will be a patriotic man and not be an independent province like are also living in camps in northern who works for his party and his Kurdistan region. It is a constitu- Iraq. group and I want the government tional right for the people to benefit Millions of tonnes of debris flood that places the Iraqi passport on the [from] oil produced in Iraq’s richest Mosul and more than 63,000 fami- top of global passport index. city, Basra.” lies are displaced inside and around “Where can I find this presi- Christian activist Ivan Yacoub, the city, figures released last July dent?” Sadiq asked. “Why does Iran who moved to Basra when ISIS en- Hopes for better days. Fireworks erupt in the sky during the 2019 by the Norwegian Refugee Council intervene with Iraq issues while tered Mosul, said: “I wish all the New Year celebrations in the southern Iraqi city of Basra. (AFP) indicate. Iraq never does that in turn?” Christians [could] return home but Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Ab- they will not unless the govern- dul-Mahdi’s cabinet has not been ment provide security, so many analyst, said: “I think that Iraq will he said. “This is what I wish for formed amid conflicts between the Iraqis celebrated from Christian families fled homes when remain under the external impact 2019. I studied days and nights and Shia blocs and under the Iranian in- Basra, the most southern they faced obstacles and difficul- that will negatively reflect on the for four years in college physical tervention to include Falih Alfayy- point of the country, to ties, I hope Iraq’s constitution em- performance of Iraqi government, education and sport sciences and, adh in the cabinet. Dohuk in the north, bodies the dignity and safe life for where many of neighbouring coun- at the end, I got nothing.” Since June, demonstrations in under heavy security. all, not only for religious people, tries compete to get a control on Their wishes varied but most southern Iraq have led to torching even those who are unreligious.” Iraq.” Iraqis interviewed said they would of political parties’ headquarters, Ali Suhail Najm, an Iraqi martial Iraqi oudist Ali Mishari said in a “The annual budget did not give like Iran’s intervention in the coun- a governmental building in Basra arts trainer in the Netherlands, said speech he wished for Iraq to be ar- enough money to rebuild the cities try to end and for Tehran to stop be- and the Iranian consulate to pro- in an interview via Facebook mes- tistically revived at it once was a that were evacuated by the Islamic ing involved in every internal mat- test Iranian influence. Protesters’ senger: “My wish for 2019 is that mainstream of art, creativity and State and people in Mosul are suf- ter in Iraq. demands were about the basic life the government reinforces the law music. “Despite the challenges we fering… to regain their homes,” During preparations for New Year requirements — clean water, elec- to take its real place in the entire faced, we are still fighting to deliver Aboodi added. “Even [though] celebrations in Al Ashar market tricity and employment. country because within the law the real art aims of spreading peace there is compensation for families in Basra, Um Noor said: “I buy a Many protesters were killed and [other] countries had been built worldwide.” to rebuild their houses, a slow rou- Christmas tree to celebrate Christ- hundreds wounded. Activists and and developed and the people lived “Seeing theatres in Iraq has be- tine processes system obstructs the mas Eve and buy sweets to cel- journalists received death threats in peace.” come my American dream. Poli- completion of Mosul’s rebuilding in ebrate with my family in New Year from Iran-backed militias. Mohammad Qassim, 23, an Iraqi ticians killed the art soul in the 2019.” celebrations. May 2019 be a good People in 18 Iraqi provinces took living in Turkey, said in an inter- community. The art is not of less Samah Salah, 23, complained of year and may peace come to all of to the streets and markets to cel- view: “Security is one of the core importance than any other work. joblessness. “I know it is not a wish. Iraq.” ebrate the New Year of 2019. They things I hope [to have] in 2019 but Countries [have] risen up by their It is a right that I suppose to get it af- gathered from different religions more than security I need freedom artists and cultured people.” ter my graduation from college but Azhar al-Rubaie is a freelance and backgrounds to express their of speech and freedom to choose Ammar al-Aboodi, a political getting a job has become a dream,” journalist in Iraq. January 6, 2019 5 Spotlight ISIS in Iraq ISIS regrouping in Iraq as US takes back seat

Stephen Quillen ment and the Kurdish People’s Pro- tection Units making steady gains throughout the country. Nearly Tunis all of ISIS’s self-declared caliphate there has been retaken. espite US President Don- However, the group exerts influ- ald Trump’s assurances ence in pockets in both Syria and that the Islamic State (ISIS) Iraq, such as in villages throughout D is “mostly gone” in Syria, the Middle Euphrates River Val- reports indicate the militant group ley, as well as in Libya, Egypt and is “in a phase of rebuilding” in Yemen, where it is recalibrating its neighbouring Iraq. strategy in a changing geopolitical An analysis by Jane’s Intelligence landscape. Review stated that “there are in- Analysts warned that apart from creasing indications that the Is- ISIS’s territorial footholds, its ide- lamic State is exploiting the chaotic ology remains a potent force that and unresolved security situation could inspire violence. in Iraq to re-establish itself.” “This notion that we’re defeating While the development “does Daesh, that we can begin to think not appear to herald an imminent about a post-Daesh reality is not large-scale campaign,” the Jane’s to my mind accurate,” said Shiraz Intelligence Review analysis said, Maher, deputy director of the In- it does show that “the Islamic State ternational Centre for the Study appears to be in a phase of rebuild- of Radicalisation and Political Vio- ing its structures to prepare for a lence at King’s College London, at future recommencement of insur- a conference on counterterrorism gency in Iraq, accompanied by a in November. “This is an ongoing steady drip of armed attacks.” threat. It’s a live event.” ISIS retains an entrenched pres- Counterterrorism expert Peter ence in Iraq, including Nineveh Vincent told NBC News: “The war province south of Mosul city, the has yet to be won and, if it’s ever country’s north-east Hamrin Moun- going to be won, it’s going to take tains and in the towns of Hawija many more years and many more and Daquq, the report stated. civilians will lose their lives.” ISIS is using bases in these areas Such an assessment does not to “develop (or revive) its capability seem to be shared by Trump, how- Unresolved fight. Iraqi security forces inspect the scene of a car bomb explosion near a restaurant in to conduct operations across a far ever, who announced December 19 Mosul, last November. (AFP) broader area, including into Bagh- that he would withdraw the United dad, Mosul city and Samarra and States’ remaining 2,000 troops then onwards into Syria and Iran,” from Syria. Counter ISIS Brett McGurk resigned Further muddying the waters is er of the Islah bloc in the Iraqi par- Jane’s Intelligence Review said. “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, in protest. the United States’ uncertain role in liament. The development comes a year my only reason for being there,” Critics also expressed concern Iraq, where lawmakers in the newly With the United States poised to after Iraq said it had routed ISIS, Trump said. that a hasty withdrawal would con- formed government are also calling exit Syria in less than four months driving it from its final strongholds “We’ve knocked them out, we’ve stitute betrayal to the Kurds, the for its withdrawal. and losing leverage in Iraq, it is and securing its border with Syria knocked them silly,” he later added United States’ most reliable part- likely to take a backseat as the fight and the western desert. during an unannounced visit De- ners in the fight against ISIS and against ISIS unfolds. “Honourable Iraqis: Your land cember 26 to US personnel at Al who have now struck a strategic al- Analysts warned that, For Russian President Vladimir has been completely liberated,” Asad Airbase in Iraq. liance with the Syrian government apart from ISIS’s Putin and Turkish President Re- then Iraqi Prime Minister Haider The pullout, which Trump later in the United States’ absence. remaining territorial cep Tayyip Erdogan this means a al-Abadi said in a televised address scaled back, drew concerned re- “If reports accurate about Kurds footholds, its ideology chance to advance their conflicting in December 2017. “We have ac- actions from senior analysts and aligning with [Syrian President remains a potent force agendas in the troubled region but complished a very difficult mission. politicians, who warned an abrupt Bashar] Assad, major disaster in that could inspire there is a question as to whether the Our heroes have reached the final departure would risk an ISIS resur- the making,” US Senator Lindsey violence for years. two powers can put aside their dif- strongholds of Daesh and purified gence and leave room for Russia, Graham, a South Carolina Republi- ferences and effectively deal with it.” Daesh is an Arabic acronym for Turkey and Iran to further shape can wrote on Twitter December 30. the remnants of ISIS. ISIS. Syria’s future. Both US Defence “Nightmare for Turkey and eventu- “Trump needs to know his limits. ISIS was also put on the defensive Secretary James Mattis and Special ally Israel. Big winners are Russia, The American occupation of Iraq is Stephen Quillen is an Arab Weekly in Syria, with the Syrian govern- Envoy for the Global Coalition to Iran/Assad & ISIS.” over,” said Sabah al-Saidi, the lead- correspondent in Tunis.

Viewpoint Iraq’s ‘ISIS families’ are a recipe for future conflict

uman Rights Watch with aiding and abetting or even has published a scath- committing acts of terror and there- Tallha ing attack against fore face the death penalty. Abdulrazaq the Iraqi government Even if they are cleared, they and its security and are forced back into the camps and intelligence agencies could be arrested again because Hfor policies that have led to Iraqi security agencies do not coordinate families being held in concentration their efforts and have many of the camp-like conditions. same names on their wanted lists. The families have not been Imagine escaping a death sen- charged with any crime, save for tence and being declared innocent being related to supposed or actual the first time, only to be subjected members of the Islamic State (ISIS). to a new trial that could easily end Human Rights Watch Senior with a conviction and a short stint Iraq Researcher Belkis Wille said on death row before execution. more than 100,000 Iraqis could be Wille warned that without a com- affected. They had identity docu- mitment to national reconciliation ments confiscated and are confined and the reintroduction of these to camps that were built to house people into Iraqi society, it could refugees fleeing the violence that lead to tensions that would be an raged across Iraq from 2014-17. enormous roadblock on the road to Entire families have been impli- peace. cated because their fathers, sons It is also the case that such or husbands were civil servants, brazen sexual assaults against teachers, doctors or other profes- vulnerable women and children by Powder keg. Children of an ISIS fighter pose for a family portrait sionals whose only crime was those who are supposed to protect at Daquq Camp near Kirkuk, last April. (AP) continuing to turn up to work in them could enrage the population, cities that had been captured by particularly Sunni Arabs who repre- ISIS. Others were punished because to be able to leave the camps for Those Shia jihadists are part and sent most of those suffering under Iraq could face their relatives fought on behalf of routine medical appointments. parcel of the Iraqi armed forces and the discriminatory and sectarian ISIS, even if they denounced their This is diabolical and this cannot intelligence agencies and they are policies. another resurgence actions and wanted nothing to do be stated enough. sexually abusing women in camps Should this happen, Iraq could of nationwide with them. The world was rightly up in while denying them and other vul- face another resurgence of na- Iraqi authorities and the security arms when ISIS discriminated nerable people identity documents tionwide violence and a further violence and a establishment made considerable against various religious groups so that they are effectively stripped empowerment of Iran’s terrorist further efforts to utilise methods that can and used sex as a weapon against of their citizenship. organisations that control much of empowerment of only be described as collective Yazidi women. The United States Without identity documents, it Iraq’s state power. This is a calam- punishment, a crime under interna- used this and threats towards Iraqi is impossible for “ISIS families” to ity that must be avoided. Iran’s terrorist tional humanitarian law. Kurdistan as a pretext for its inter- return to their homes, reclaim their organisations that Making matters worse, Iraqi se- vention, providing air cover and legal property and start to rebuild Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher curity forces have been exploiting arms to some of the worst of Iran’s their shattered lives. at the University of Exeter’s control much of children and women, often forcing Shia jihadist proxies to counter the These people are frequently sub- Strategy and Security Institute Iraq’s state power. women into sexual relations just Sunni extremists of ISIS. jected to threats of being charged in England. 6 January 6, 2019 Opinion

Editorial The challenges and promises of 2019

s it welcomes a new year, the Arab world sees glimmers of hope but also many reasons for wariness and concern. 2019 will carry over many of the tragic legacies of years past, especially those related to war andA violence. For many of the populations of the region, it is the near defeat of the Islamic State (ISIS) on the battlefields of Syria and Iraq that represents an opportunity for a new beginning. However, the danger posed by ISIS in those two countries and other parts of the region is far from over. The terrorist group is trying to regroup. The violence perpetrated by ISIS and similar terrorist groups is the result of a dangerous narrative based on the distortion of Muslim values and the exploitation of enduring frustrations. The peaceful settlement of conflicts may be an indication there is light at the end of the tunnel. For Arab civilians, even a lower threshold of armed violence would be very welcome, be it in the Levant, Libya, Yemen or elsewhere. A durable settlement of the Pales- tinian-Israeli conflict should be a priority. The © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly United States’ neglect and Israel’s repressive methods will not make the Palestinian prob- lem go away. As the guns gradually fall silent in Syria and Unrest in MENA casts doubts Iraq, a much-needed debate on reconstruction will have to start in earnest. on liberal model Millions in the Arab world are displaced or Wissam Hamdi deprived of the means to make a decent living. In 2019, they will be looking for help from the Al-Bashir has branded the protesters as traitors and his entire international community, not just from a few regional or global powers. What is at provocative statements further radicalised the protests. stake is not just rebuilding the infrastructure but reconstructing lives shattered by war. any Arab countries central province of Kasserine. Iraq has been suffering security Part of the rebuilding will be to establish are witnessing Hamza Nasri, an activist in the problems and rampant corruption bases for enduring peace, reconciliation and protests varying in “Basta” (“Enough”) campaign in for 15 years. Recently, widespread power-sharing. Zero-sum mindsets can only intensity but with Tunisia, said the objective of the protests erupted in several Iraqi breed endless strife. So will sectarianism and similar demands. movement “is to support the pro- cities in the centre and south of the the political exploitation of religion. People are dem- tests that have gripped the country country. Protesters are demanding Much of the future of the region will depend Monstrating against deteriorating because of the failure of the cur- jobs, of course, but also basic public on the Arab world’s willingness not to leave a economic and social conditions in rent regime and all of the previ- services such as electricity and void that can be exploited by regional and their countries. In some, Sudan, for ous governments since the 2011 drinking water in addition to wip- global powers jockeying for control and example, the demands have turned revolution to provide the rightful ing out corruption in the govern- influence. political, calling for regime change. social benefits for all Tunisians and ment. The lack of an Arab collective security vision There have been protests in which can be summarised in bread The protests in Jordan are prob- puts too much of the fate of the region in the Sudan, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, and dignity.” ably the most representative of how hands of the United States, Russia and Euro- Iraq, Jordan and Algeria. In Leba- Nasri said the liberal economic people have had it with prevail- pean powers. It also encourages the Iranians non and Tunisia, protesters found policies exhausted the middle ing economic systems dictated by and Turks, each from a different perspective, inspiration in the “Yellow Jackets” classes and the poor segments of international lending agencies. In to pursue expansionist policies at the expense movement in France, which spread society in Tunisia. He pointed out 2018, Jordanians took to the streets of Arab interests. to other European countries. that the current system is leading to protest austerity measures and Driven by its own brand of revolutionary The similarity in the slogans and the country to an unknown future rising taxes. Hani Mulki resigned as doctrine, Iran uses all means, including demands made by the protesters amid worsening social conditions prime minister and a new govern- subversion and terrorism, to destabilise its underscores the failure of the tra- for most Tunisians. ment headed by Omar Razzaz was neighbours and intimidate others. Ankara’s This kind of thinking is not neo-Ottoman designs have taken a dangerous ditional capitalistic model and the appointed. This new government turn since the re-election of Recep Tayyip concomitant plans and strategies specific to Tunisia. It can be seen in also failed to appease the street. Erdogan as president with greater authoritar- of international lending institu- Lebanon, where many accuse the The situation is slightly differ- ian prerogatives. The Arab Summit in March tions, as well as the rejection of current political system of being ent in Algeria. This North African should be an opportunity to agree on a collec- the notion of introducing reforms responsible for the country’s eco- country is living through a deep tive security blueprint. That is an idea whose based on forcing citizens to make nomic, social and political woes. crisis that has become a source of time has come. sacrifices. Activists in Lebanon borrowed concern for the region and inter- Even in parts of the Arab world not plagued Among the popular protests the protest strategies of the French nationally. The people are angry by war and strife, turmoil periodically erupts in the MENA region, the ones in Yellow Jackets. The protesters have about President Abdelaziz Boutef- because of inadequate socioeconomic policies. Sudan against the Omar al-Bashir three demands: reduce taxes on lika’s intent to run for a fifth term In far too many places, schools have become regime are the most violent and fuel products, create a comprehen- in office, despite his advanced age factories that produce no more than unemploy- most radical. Protesters there have sive health plan for all citizens and and apparent poor health. They are able young graduates. The situation is wors- gone beyond economic grievances reduce the interest rate on treasury angry about deteriorating condi- ened by economies that cannot offer enough and are calling for the removal of bonds to the previous rate of 7.5%. tions in an oil-producing country value-added jobs to employ ambitious young the regime. Libya has been in a state of chaos where a large segment of its youth people. A brain drain is depriving some of the Al-Bashir has branded the pro- and insecurity since the fall of is unemployed and its middle class region’s countries of well-trained and much- testers as traitors and his provoca- Muammar Qaddafi’s regime in 2011. and the poor can no longer keep up needed youth. Driven by despair, other young tive statements further radicalised It is experiencing a new wave of with the galloping cost of living. people are tempted to pursue the risky path of the protests. Like practically protests from the south. Protest- Just like in Tunisia, popular anger illegal migration. everywhere else, the Sudanese ers calling themselves the Fazan in Algeria reached a boiling point It would be inaccurate and terribly mislead- protests started out as demonstra- Anger Movement shut down the and stood to erupt in the streets ing, however, to view the future of the Arab tions against price hikes, especially Sharara oil field near Obary last at the slightest spark. This is what region solely from a perspective of wariness the cost of bread. month. Protests spread to 12 other happened December 25 when mass and concern. There are many reasons for hope. The situation is not so different areas in southern Libya. Protesters demonstrations broke out in M’Sila The very youth who fall prey at times to in Tunisia, where protests swept are demanding employment and province in south-eastern Alge- radicalisation and despair or who take make- across several regions, especially development opportunities for the ria, following the death of Ayach shift boats to cross the Mediterranean hold on after the self-immolation of TV southern regions and fuel for their Mahjoubi, who had been stuck to dreams and aspirations. journalist Abderrazak Zorgui in the inhabitants. for six days in a well at a depth of Given a chance, Arab youth can find their 30 metres. His accidental death way to academic and scientific attainment, became a matter of public opinion creative enterprise and social participation. and prompted huge demonstra- Among the additional factors of hope is the tions that observers considered to increasing ability of Arab young women to be a form of “muscle flexing against challenge anachronistic restrictions stemming from gender bias. the Bouteflika regime.” The rise of the young woman in the Arab From the Arab region to Eu- world can only benefit from the welcome rope and other parts of the world, initiatives of 2018, aimed at establishing a level Dashed popular manifestations of anger playing field for both genders. These include hopes. might differ in form and details but Tunisia’s move to enshrine into law gender University come together in one fundamental equality in terms of inheritance, Saudi Arabia’s professors aspect: The middle classes and the lifting of the driving ban on women, the United and teachers poor are angry at their political Arab Emirates’ new provision of equal pay for take part elites, government and opposition men and women and Morocco’s and Algeria’s in a protest alike, for trading their dreams and criminalisation of violence against women. to demand aspirations for endless nightmares 2019 could be a better year in the Arab world. higher wages and misery. Making that wish come true will take shared in Tunis, vision and commitment. December 19. Wissam Hamdi is a Tunisian (Reuters) journalist. January 6, 2019 7 Opinion

The Kurds, perpetual losers at the game of nations Published by Al Arab Khattar Abou Diab Publishing House It is too early to do an inventory of the winners and losers. Perhaps Trump wanted Publisher to let go of the burning ball of fire so that someone else would pick it up. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD S President Don- Kurdish People’s Protection rifices of the Kurdish forces in Erdogan is taking advantage of Editor-in-Chief ald Trump’s deci- Units are not afraid of los- the battles against ISIS in Sinjar, that rivalry and is pushing his sion to withdraw ing much of their geography Kobane and Raqqa. Washington own agenda. Oussama Romdhani from Syria is a and their goal of achieving and the international coalition It is important not to under- perfect example a pluralistic Syria but this against terrorism made the Peo- estimate the importance of Managing Editor of his style of do- American abandonment and ple’s Protection Units the core American internal factors, espe- Iman Zayat Uing things at the White House: Russia’s neglecting them will units of the Syrian Democratic cially the case of “Russia Gate” He tweeted it and had made it result in a blow to the Kurdish Forces and had them control whose shadow is dogging the Deputy Managing Editor without consulting his staff. dream. Most likely, the Kurdish sensitive areas north and east of White House. It could also be and Online Editor Trump’s solo decision forces will withdraw towards the Euphrates in Syria. the case that Trump’s decisions Mamoon Alabbasi prompted his Secretary of northern Iraq, with all the risks With the turn of events at to withdraw from Syria and to Defence James Mattis to resign involved. Afrin, however, and especially withdraw troops from Afghani- Senior Editor and confused his advisers and In the end, despite the after the victory in the battle stan are part of the rivalry game John Hendel US institutions along with US drawback in Syria, the lost bat- of Hajin against ISIS, Trump between Trump and the US allies and friends. tle in Iraq, the containment of quickly made the decision to Congress, which is blocking the Chief Copy Editor It is hard to be a friend of Kurdish protests in Iran and the withdraw US troops from Syria president’s agenda on many is- Richard Pretorius Washington in Trump’s time, political and security pressures but later accepted to postpone sues such as Yemen and the wall especially for the Kurds who in Turkey, the world’s largest six months. The reason was at the Mexican border. Copy Editor already were the victims of population without a state will that a decisive and full victory Of course, by withdrawing Stephen Quillen geography’s curse and the not abandon the idea of self- against ISIS was needed. The from Syria, the United States sacred alliances against them determination. same scenario happened in Iraq stands to lose a significant lever East/West Section Editor and above all victims of their People often repeat that the during the term of US President in the decision regarding Syria’s Mark Habeeb own ill-considered choices and Kurds have no friends but their George W. Bush. On May 1, fate. Turkey may end up gaining divisions. mountains but that amounts 2003, Bush announced the end control of some territory along Gulf Section Editor With all the changes in the really to an oversimplification of military operations in Iraq its southern border. Its penetra- Mohammed Alkhereiji Middle East and the conflicts and marginalisation of modern but Iraq is still unstable to this tion inside the region east of the Society and Travel raging since 2011 in the context day. Euphrates and even in northern history. They certainly made Sections Editor of the “big game” in Syria, the mistakes by deciding to rely on Observers wondered about Iraq will be constrained only Kurds were under the impres- others and by becoming mere the real outcome of the war by Russian and Iranian redlines Samar Kadi sion that the time was ripe for tools for foreign agendas when against ISIS since 2014. What and by Europe’s stances and the Contributing Editor them to correct history and they don’t ask for guarantees or they saw as a result of that war United States’ control. Rashmee Roshan Lall post-World War I partitioning fully understand the complexi- was the handover of Iraq and The Kurdish side risks to of the region by exercising their ties of the regional game and Syria in one form or another to drown in the region’s turbulent Contributing Analyst right to self-determination and regional changes. Iranian influence. There were a waters because of Hurricane Ed Blanche imposing themselves as players Of course, one can always few consolation prizes for the Trump east of the Euphrates. in the future map of Syria. They blame the others instead of Turkish player by the new in- When this happens, a leaf of Senior Correspondents apparently believed they would learning from one’s mistakes ternational force in the Middle Kurdish history will be turned. Mahmud el-Shafey (London) be difficult to bypass because of and by carrying on with an East — Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The influence of Masoud their role in the war against the unfair war against Ankara and It is too early to do an inven- Barzani’s current and that of Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) Islamic State (ISIS). its capacities. To this is added tory of the winners and losers. Abdullah Ocalan are receding. Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) However, their bets or cal- today’s special moral and politi- Perhaps Trump wanted to let The bets now are on the younger Thomas Frank (Washington) culations did not withstand cal responsibility of Washington go of the burning ball of fire so generation of Kurdish leaders the “destructive chaos” on the and its allies. that someone else would pick — like Salah Dimratash, who, by Regular Columnists ground. They received the first During the Battle of Afrin, it up. What is being said about the way, is rotting in a Turkish Claude Salhani blow after the referendum in the West praised the Kurdish a deal with Turkey is inac- jail — who have a better under- Yavuz Baydar the Kurdistan region of Iraq and peshmerga forces who were the curate because there is a race standing of the world. the loss of Kirkuk in September West’s main allies in the war on for a new balance of power in Correspondents 2017 and another with the loss ISIS. The European media fo- the region plus an American- Khattar Abou Diab is a professor Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) of Afrin in northern Syria. cused on Kurdish female fight- Russian rivalry over Turkey. of geopolitical sciences at the After the US withdrawal, the ers and on the bravery and sac- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Paris Centre for Geopolitics. Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Chief Designer What is more challenging for the Arabs: Israel or Iran? Marwen el-Hmedi

Designers Farouk Yousef Ibrahim Ben Bechir For those who are under the spell of the lie perpetrated by the Hanen Jebali Iran-backed “resistance,” it is time to wake up to the truth.

t is no longer possible to after having replaced common The Palestinian Authority Iran has become the biggest Contact editor at: feign ignorance about sense with their twisted ideolo- (PA) in Ramallah was turned threat to our existence. Iran has [email protected] Israel’s presence in the gies. into a weak side holding signifi- shattered our lives from within, Middle East. The old game They chose to plant the seeds cantly weak cards to be able to something that Israel could no longer fools anyone. of hope among the Palestinians exert pressure on Israel. All the not do despite its military and Through this lie, the Arabs by auguring the coming of the PA can offer Palestinians is to intelligence superiority. It is Ihave turned their backs to the Islamic umma, a concept that wait for some time then wait therefore incumbent on Arabs world and, naturally, have lost is out of sync with the Palestin- again with no end or result in to put aside all the lies and act Al Arab Publishing House a lot of their rights as a result. ians’ daily struggles. sight. Israel looks at the PA as in a manner consistent with the Quadrant Building Because they refused to accept It should not be forgotten a dead body, which is not far realities of a changing world. 177-179 Hammersmith Road a definitive political reality of that the Arabs messed up the away from the truth. The Iranian devils, who have London W6 8BS our time, the Arabs have made Palestinians’ future when they The world has changed and become intricately woven into an enemy of the entire world rejected solutions that were the Israelis have changed with it the Arab social fabric and are and then some. far better than the Oslo Ac- but have they changed enough in control of some part of Arab At a later stage, the Arabs cords. These accords created to say that they are no longer life, are the bigger threat to Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 used the secret contacts and a Palestinian Authority whose enemies to the Palestinians? the fate of the Arab world than Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 meetings with Israel as a pretext weakness caused the Gaza Strip It is at least possible to say Israel is. to attack and smear each other. to slip through its fingers. the Israelis “are dealing with For those who are under the This kind of political auction It was because of the slogans the Arab world in a political spell of the lie perpetrated by is happening today with each brandished by armed groups way.” This is certainly not how the Iran-backed “resistance,” US Publisher: leader raising the ante for the that we lost our connection to the Iranians are dealing with it is time to wake up to the The Arab Weekly USA LLC. others to divert the general pub- the world and its trust in us as the Arabs. Their hostility to- truth: Iran is the only enemy of lic’s attention from a question reliable dialogue partners but wards the Arabs is an ideologi- the Arabs now. It is so because [email protected] that has become a scandal in the this time the game looks differ- cal one and therefore cannot be Israel, a state recognised by [email protected] eyes of many countries. ent. overcome. Iran has thus played the Palestinians themselves, The issue is not about nor- The Israeli side is the strong- a dangerous role in changing is looking for a strong Arab Tel: 248-679-6624 malising relations with Israel, est and it has always been so. the world’s and the Arabs’ per- environment with which to which is a negative aspect that The Israeli side needs peace ceptions of Israel. establish lasting peace and end can lead to serious conse- more than the Arab side does. It would be foolish to over- the era of militarism, which is quences if nothing is offered in This is a paradox of some sort look the Iranian danger. This no longer compatible with the return. No harm would come to and the reason is that, in many country, which entertains realities of our time. the Palestinian cause by dealing Arab countries, the horizon of us with populist resistance The purpose behind wasting directly with Israel. This cause civil peace is receding further speeches and fills the horizon time having “revolutionary” Subscription & Advertising: has been led into an impossible and further because of Iranian with the “Death to Israel” auctions is no longer a secret. [email protected] maze by the same people who interference. slogan, has yet to accomplish We know that Iran wants to Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 have been championing it. For such countries, the goal one concrete action besides plant the seeds of its aggression What we know regarding the of internal peace has become planting sectarian militias and in the region. This must stop, of Palestinian cause is that there is impossible to attain. Seeking fanning sectarian fire. Those course, so the Arabs can build Mohamed Al Mufti no hope for a solution without that goal has deprived those militias spread backwardness, their lives on sound founda- Marketing & Advertising direct negotiations with the countries of time needed to ignorance and the culture of tions that bring them closer Manager Israeli side. Let Hezbollah and think about the question of death in the Arab world, in to the world and help them Hamas go to the hell they’ve peace with Israel through a keeping with their hidden recover their rights within the Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 been threatening everybody fair solution to the Palestinian slogan, which is “Death to the context of a just peace. www.alarab.co.uk with. These two lie to their own cause that would guarantee the Arabs.” people and control their fate Palestinians their rights. The world has changed and Farouk Yousef is an Iraqi writer. 8 January 6, 2019 News & Analysis Egypt Giza attack raises security questions for Egypt

Amr Emam or the number of victims,” said Adel Abdel Razik, the former deputy head of the Federation of Cairo Tourist Chambers, the independ- ent guild of tour operators and bomb attack on a tour- tourism investors. “It is a real ist bus that killed four tragedy but it can happen any- people near the Giza where in the world, even in the A Pyramids shows terrorist most secure of countries,” threats are far from being over in Tens of thousands of visitors Egypt, security analysts said. have been heading to Egypt, “Some terrorist sleeper cells raising hotel occupancy in many are still there and they need tourist destinations to their high- to be eradicated,” said retired est level in years. Tourists con- army colonel and terrorism ex- tinued to visit the pyramids even pert Hatem Saber. “They want to the day after the attack. “I think prove they are still there, which is terrorism can strike anywhere in why I expect other attacks in the the world,” a South Korean tour- coming months.” ist told Agence-France Presse. The bus was carrying tour- “You have to be careful but it is ists from Vietnam, a new market also like luck.” for the Egyptian tourism sec- The terrorist threat is also a ma- tor, which generally heavily de- jor concern given how long and pended on European and Russian hard security forces have been tourists. fighting terrorist groups in Egypt. Egypt has been battling a In cracking down on branch of the Islamic State (ISIS) in the Sinai Peninsula for almost terrorist groups, Egyptian four years, in addition to com- counterterrorism agencies bating pro-Muslim Brotherhood pursued a strategy that groups. focused on hunting down “We have already moved a long terrorist leaders. way on the road to ending terror- ist presence altogether,” said re- Sowing fear. A view of a tourist bus that was attacked in Giza province south of Cairo, December 28. (AFP) The bus was travelling from a tired army General Gamal Eddine highway connecting the southern Mazloum. “Preventive strikes by part of Cairo with the Giza Pyra- the army and police against ter- tacks across the country. In 2016, stage major attacks. where preparations for New mids when a bomb was remotely rorist groups are paralysing the there were 199 attacks and there The bomb that went off as the Year celebrations and the Coptic detonated and killed three Viet- terrorists and making our country were 222 attacks in 2014, the re- tourist bus passed near the pyra- Christmas on January 7 were tak- namese tourists and an Egyptian more secure.” port said. mids on December 28 was likely ing place. guide. However, as the latest attack In cracking down on terrorist not part of a meticulous plan but Tens of thousands of police- There was no claim of responsi- shows, the terrorist threat has not groups, Egyptian counterterror- rather an attack of opportunity. men are deployed near churches bility for the December 28 attack been completely neutralised. At ism agencies pursued a strategy After the attack, Egyptian to prevent attacks. but security analysts said it car- the same time, terrorist attacks in that focused on hunting down Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouli “Security agencies are tighten- ried the hallmarks of a terrorist 2018 declined sharply from previ- terrorist leaders. They did this said the bus should not have used ing the noose around the terror- group affiliated with the Muslim ous years. with ISIS Sinai, which lost almost the road where the attack took ists and forcing them to run out Brotherhood. The Giza bus attack was the all its senior leaders, and with place. “The bus should have used of targets,” Mazloum said. “This The attack, tourism experts eighth major attack in 2018, said pro-Brotherhood militias that another route decided before- is why these terrorists want to said, would most likely not nega- the State Information Service, mainly targeted policemen, army hand by security agencies in co- prove that they are still alive but tively affect the tourism sector, the official media and public re- officers and Egypt’s Christian mi- ordination with tour operators,” this will not deny the fact that which has started picking up af- lations apparatus of the Egyp- nority. he said. their days are numbered.” ter years of recession. tian state. This was the lowest This strategy, security analysts Those who planted the bomb “There is nothing exceptional number of attacks in five years. said, weakened militant groups might have been planning to use Amr Emam is a Cairo-based about this attack, either its scale In 2017, there were 50 terrorist at- and undermined their ability to the device to attack a church contributor to The Arab Weekly. Cairo announces new body to tackle sectarian violence

Ahmed Megahid in the Sinai Peninsula. Others have terterrorism adviser, Magdy Ab- This is the latest move by Sisi’s the panel to speed up the approval been physical attacks, including del Ghaffar. Other members will administration to tackle attacks on process, especially. Requests for stabbings. include a senior army general and Christians and comes as Egypt’s the licensing of 3,730 churches and Cairo “In most cases, those responsi- representatives of military intelli- Coptic community prepares to cel- church buildings are awaiting ac- ble for attacks against the Chris- gence, general intelligence and the ebrate Christmas on January 7. tion. gypt’s Christian commu- tians were not brought to justice National Security Agency, Egypt’s In August 2016, the Egyptian par- A Muslim extremist was execut- nity, the largest minor- in the absence of a real state desire internal intelligence agency. liament approved a law that allows ed December 31 for the January ity in the predominantly to stem violence against the Chris- The committee is to develop a Christians to construct churches. 2017 killing of a Christian liquor E Muslim state, welcomed tians,” said Ishak Ibrahim, a Chris- “general strategy” to prevent and On December 31, a panel looking shop owner in Alexandria. Adel an announcement by Egyptian by tian affairs specialist at NGO Egyp- confront sectarian attacks. The into Christian church licensing Suleiman, a fundamentalist street President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to tian Initiative for Personal Rights. committee will also have open requests approved 80 requests, vendor in his early 50s, was the form a panel to address sectarian “This frustrated the Christians and communication with cabinet min- bringing the total number of first Muslim executed for attacking violence. made them feel angry.” isters and the heads of state secu- churches licensed since the forma- a Christian. Sisi announced the establish- The new committee will be rity agencies, making direct recom- tion of the panel in 2016 to 588. Most of those involved in attacks ment of the Supreme Committee headed by Sisi’s security and coun- mendations and reports to Sisi. Egypt’s Christians have asked in the past escaped punishment, for Confronting Sectarian Incidents with researchers attributing this to on December 30, part of efforts to the failure of the authorities to ap- address rising sectarian violence. ply the law. “The new move proves that the Authorities used to force Mus- government will finally apply the lims and Christians involved in sec- law in cases of sectarian violence,” tarian incidents to reconcile and said the Reverend Polis Halim, cases would often not reach the spokesman of the Coptic Orthodox courts. In 2011, al-Azhar and the Church. “Traditional methods of Coptic Orthodox Church formed dealing with the violence produced the Egyptian Family House, a body no results for decades in the past.” that aims to find solutions to sec- Sectarian violence is common in tarian strife, also away from the parts of Egypt, especially in south- courts. ern and central provinces. Egypt’s The Supreme Committee for Christian community, which Confronting Sectarian Incidents, makes up around 10% of Egypt’s experts said, will, for the first time, population, has complained that treat attacks against Christians as Egyptian authorities failed to deal a criminal offence that must be re- with sectarian violence as an en- ferred to the courts. demic issue. “The failure of the state to apply Clashes between Muslim and the law in these cases in the past Christian neighbours have been sent the wrong message and con- reported over many issues, par- tributed to increasing the attacks,” ticularly attacks on churches. For said Khaled Okasha, a member of decades, Egypt did not ease the a counterterrorism body advising construction of churches and many the Egyptian president. “The au- Christians turned their homes into thorities have realised that fighting unofficial churches, which angered sectarian violence is inseparable Muslim neighbours. from the fight against terrorism, Christians have been increasing- which is why attacks against the ly targeted by Islamic extremists Christians will not go unpunished based on their perceived support from now on.” for Sisi. Some incidents have seen Christian families and property Continuing threat. Egyptian security forces stand guard at a Coptic Christian church in the Waraa Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian targeted by Islamic State fighters neighbourhood in Cairo. (AP) reporter in Cairo. January 6, 2019 9 2018-2019 in Transition Egypt Seminal political events carry ripple effects

Ahmed Megahid

Cairo

gypt’s failure to secure a deal with Ethiopia over its Nile dam, Egyptian Presi- E dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s winning a second term and calls for changing the constitution to al- low him to seek additional terms in office were the biggest political events of 2018 in Egypt. Those events could decide the political course for Egypt in 2019, analysts said. Egypt has been trying to convince Ethiopia to turn assurances that Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would not harm Egypt’s water inter- ests into a written document. Addis Ababa and Cairo have been unable to come to an agreement, however, ramping up regional tensions as the multibillion-dollar dam moves clos- er to completion.

Sisi continues to lead a painful economic reform process but one that is beginning to show positive indicators despite the effect it has had on Egypt’s poor and middle class.

Sisi asked then-new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to Politics of reform. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi inspects the progress of work during a tour of the Grand Egyptian Museum, swear a public oath during his visit December 27. (Egyptian Presidency) to Cairo on June 10 that Ethiopia would not harm Egypt’s interests. “I swear by God that we will not cause “The African Union presidency ideological offshoots in other coun- ment of the country,” MP Ismail Sisi continues to lead a painful harm to Egypt,” Ahmed said. will put Egypt at the heart of deci- tries, especially in Tunisia, Jordan Nasreddine said. “Four years are economic reform process but one For many Egyptians, the dam is sion making in the African conti- and Libya where branches of the far from enough for him [Sisi] to do that is beginning to show positive one of the most serious threats fac- nent,” said Ahmed Abdel Monem, a Brotherhood lost control or were this.” indicators despite the effect it has ing the country, particularly given researcher at local think-tank Mid- politically sidelined. The Egyptian Constitution lim- had on Egypt’s poor and middle that the Arab country’s population dle East Studies Centre. “This will “Sisi is determined to maintain its the number of terms a presi- class. is growing by almost 2 million peo- help it influence African positions his war on Islamist movements to dent can serve to two. Although With calls for changing the con- ple every year and is already water in favour of its stance on the dam.” the end,” said Tarek Fahmy, a po- Sisi has said more than once that stitution getting louder and cam- poor. Equally important for Egypt in litical science professor at Cairo he intends to abide by the consti- paigns being organised on social Egypt, which receives 55.5 billion 2018 was Sisi securing a second — University. “He repeatedly said that tution, he has also repeatedly said media to back Sisi for a third term, cubic metres of water from the Nile and technically final — term in of- he has no problem with groups that that he only ruled by the will of the parliament will likely have to in- every year, suffers a water deficit of fice. Sisi became president in 2014, want to live peacefully with Egyp- Egyptian people. Sisi, unlike for- clude for 2019 a debate on amend- more than 20 billion cubic metres. one year after an army-backed pop- tians but, sorry to say, some of these mer President Hosni Mubarak, is ing the presidential term limits, The new dam will only make ular uprising against Islamist presi- Islamist groups cannot do this.” an independent candidate with no analysts said. things worse for Egypt, exacerbate dent Muhammad Morsi. There have been increasing calls ties to any political party. Both his “This is very likely in 2019 with its water shortage and threaten its Sisi has mounted ceaseless for Sisi to stay in office beyond presidential runs were preceded by the president inherently showing food security, some predict. campaign against political Islam 2022, including one lawmaker filing national campaigns petitioning him no opposition to staying longer in In November, Egyptian Prime throughout the region. Egypt, along a lawsuit calling on parliament to to stand for president. power and viable alternatives mak- Minister Mostafa Madbouli visited with other Arab Gulf countries, commit to discussing changing the Sisi’s popularity remains high ing themselves scarce,” said Hassan Ethiopia and agreed with Ahmed formally designated Morsi’s move- constitution. Several popular media and he secured his second term in a Nafaa, a political science professor on starting a new round of talks on ment — the Muslim Brotherhood — figures have publicly backed such a landslide, winning with more than at Cairo University. “Sorry to say the dam. Those negotiations should a “terrorist” organisation, striking a constitutional amendment. 97% of the vote against Moussa Mo- this will deal a painful blow to po- take place sometime in 2019, the major blow against political Islam. “The president needs more time stafa Moussa, who had endorsed litical succession as a concept, even year Egypt takes over the rotating The downfall of the Brotherhood in the presidency to complete what Sisi’s re-election before entering the as some people want the president presidency of the African Union. in Egypt had a domino effect on its he started: the economic develop- race for the presidency. to remain in office.” Last year’s successes against terrorism did not end war

Amr Emam swore allegiance to ISIS at the Western Desert and Egypt’s south- political and social disenchant- been used by terrorist groups, end of 2014, turned some parts of ern provinces. This proved to be a ment in Egypt. including ISIS and pro-al-Qaeda the Sinai Peninsula into perilous huge challenge for Egypt’s secu- “The terrorists want to give groups, to smuggle arms and mili- Cairo zones for troops, police and citi- rity establishment in 2018. the impression that the govern- tants into Egypt. zens, particularly Egypt’s Coptic “It will most likely continue to ment cannot offer them protec- One major success in 2018 airo’s Operation Sinai 2018 minority. be a major security challenge in tion,” he said. Egyptian President was the capture of most wanted weakened the local branch ISIS Sinai does not control spe- 2019,” said security analyst Hamdi Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has staked a Egyptian terrorist, Hisham al- of the Islamic State (ISIS) cific territory, although militants Bekheit, a retired Egyptian Army lot of political capital in reassur- Ashmawy, in Libya. Ashmawy, C in the Sinai Peninsula but have been using the mountainous general. ing Egypt’s Coptic minority, who a former Egyptian Army special this is far from enough to herald region in central Sinai to avoid The enormous desert areas west make up an estimated 10% of forces officer, was captured in the an end to the terrorist threat fac- military patrols, while seeking of the Nile Valley and the Delta, Egypt’s population. eastern Libyan city of Derna in Oc- ing the country, security analysts to hide among the residents of the main population concentra- tober. northern Sinai. tion centres in Egypt, give terror- “This is the most important said. Militants have been using The operation, which began Despite the success of the army ists escaping Sinai the opportu- terrorist to be arrested in a dec- last February, was to have ended against the organisation, ISIS is nity to regroup. the mountainous region in ade,” Bekheit said. “He amounts within three months. However, it still capable of low-level opera- Deteriorating living conditions central Sinai to avoid to a treasure trove of information looks to extend into 2019 with all tions. On December 17, ISIS-plant- in central and southern Egyptian military patrols, while about terrorism, the hideouts of branches of Egypt’s armed forc- ed roadside bombs killed two po- provinces and rampant poverty seeking to hide among the terrorist groups, their funding and es fighting terrorism across the lice conscripts. and illiteracy also mean the ter- residents of northern Sinai. the sources of that funding.” country. The roadside bombs and de- rorists can often find additional Ashmawy’s capture confirmed “Apart from killing and arrest- pendence on lone-wolf attacks, recruits. A new front in the war against the military and security coop- ing a huge number of ISIS mem- however, reflect desperation on On November 2, militants at- terrorism will likely add pressure eration between Cairo and the Na- bers and leaders, the operation the part of militants who are in- tacked two buses carrying Chris- for Egypt’s security forces and tional Libyan Army led by Field- destroyed most of the infrastruc- creasingly being overpowered by tians on their way from visiting Cairo will have to deal with terror- Marshal Khalifa Haftar. ture of the terrorist organisation,” Egyptian forces deployed in Sinai. the Saint Samuel the Confessor ists moving their operations out- “Libya is by far the most se- said Mahmoud Khalaf, a lecturer ISIS has not been able to repli- Monastery in the Western Desert. side Sinai, security analysts said. rious security threat to Egypt, at Nasser Military Academy, the cate large-scale attacks it carried Seven Egyptian Christians were Equally challenging for Cairo given the enormity of the unrest academic arm of the Egyptian out in 2017, such as the Al-Rawda killed and 14 others wounded. will be the border with Libya, a it suffers and the toll this unrest military. “This has had a huge ef- mosque attack in Sinai, in which In May 2017, militants killed 28 1,100km line that Egypt guards has on security in neighbouring fect on the ability of ISIS to stage more than 300 people were killed, Christians travelling to the same alone in the absence of a central states,” said security analyst Ga- attacks against Egyptian army that became the impetus behind monastery in the same area. state in Libya. mal Mazloum. “Egypt will have to troops and policemen, particular- Operation Sinai 2018. Bekheit said Egypt’s Coptic The border has been a major deal with this threat in the com- ly in Sinai.” ISIS is also trying to expand its Christian community is being sin- security problem for Cairo since ing years, whether there is a set- The organisation, originally a operations and presence outside gled out because it is vulnerable the 2011 uprising against Libyan tlement to the conflict in Libya homegrown terrorist group that Sinai, particularly to the Egyptian and because this would sow wider leader Muammar Qaddafi and has or not.” 10 January 6, 2019 News & Analysis Syria New UN Syria envoy starts ‘mission impossible’ with few illusions

Thomas Seibert general for southern Lebanon from 2005-07. From 1998-2003, Pedersen was Norway’s representative to the Istanbul Palestinian Authority. In 1993, he was a member of Norway’s team s the new Syria envoy of the in negotiations that led to the Oslo United Nations prepares to agreement between Israel and the take office, he enters a mili- Palestine Liberation Organisation. A tary and political landscape In his new job, described as a “mis- filled with powerful players scram- sion impossible” in news reports, bling for influence as the war winds Pedersen’s immediate task will be to down after almost eight years. forge a consensus on a 150-member The big question is whether Geir committee that is to write a consti- Pedersen, a Norwegian diplomat tution for a post-war Syria. who is to start his new job January Russia, Turkey and Iran, three 7, can succeed where his three pre- powers that conduct peace talks for decessors failed. The United Na- Syria in the so-called Astana process tions has been unable to stop a con- running parallel to the UN efforts, flict that has killed almost 500,000 in December said they had reached people, driven millions more from an agreement regarding the con- their homes and made Syria a battle- stitutional panel. The forum is to ground for extremists from al-Qaeda include an equal number of govern- to the Islamic State and a stage for ment, opposition and civil society foreign power rivalries. representatives but the composition Russia, Iran, Turkey, several Gulf of the committee remains unclear, countries and the United States have suggesting that differences between supported opposing groups in Syria the three powers remain. and effectively sidelined the United Pedersen’s predecessor, Staffan de Nations while pursuing their own Mistura, said before his departure interests. last month that there was an “extra Thanks to Russia’s support, Syr- mile” to go before the committee ian President Bashar Assad has all could start its work. Syria’s govern- but won the military side of the con- ment has balked at the United Na- flict and enters 2019 in a position of tions’ role in selecting civil society strength but Assad will need outside members of the committee. Moscow UN mantle. A 2015 file photo shows the then-Norwegian Ambassador to the United Nations Geir help to pay for the reconstruction of said a summit including Russia, Tur- Pederson addressing the UN General Assembly. (AP) his country, which he says will cost key and Iran on Syria is to take place up to $400 billion. this month. “By itself, Pedersen’s appoint- UN planners expect the constitu- their property.” against Turkey-backed rebels. The Former UN Secretary-General Kofi ment will not usher in a solution,” tional committee to pave the way In addition, the fighting is not new wave of fighting came after Annan of Ghana was the first Syria said Oytun Orhan, coordinator of for elections and democratic post- over despite Assad’s victories on the US President Donald Trump’s an- envoy in February 2012 but quit six Syria Studies at the Centre for Mid- war order in Syria but chances for battlefield. In Idlib province, the last nouncement that he was withdraw- months later. Annan was succeeded dle Eastern Studies, a think-tank in reconciliation or for the return of rebel-held area in Syria, tensions ing all US troops from Syria and by Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahi- Ankara, “but his chance may come millions of refugees to their homes between government forces and be- amid Turkish threats to carry out a mi, who held the post from 2012-14 as fighting is dying down and a new appear slim. sieged insurgents simmer on. military operation against Kurdish when he handed the job over to de era for a political solution could be- The Washington Post reported fighters in north-eastern Syria. Mistura, an Italian-Swedish diplo- gin.” that the Assad government was Orhan said Russia, Turkey and mat. Pedersen, a 63-year-old father of speeding up the execution of politi- The big question is whether Iran remained the key players. “The When de Mistura announced his five who was Norway’s ambassador cal prisoners. Perceived foes of As- Geir Pedersen, a Norwegian initiative is with those three coun- resignation last year, he said he was to China before he was selected to sad face other pressures, too, rights diplomat who is to start his tries,” and not with the United Na- leaving for personal reasons but his be Syria envoy, is likely to have few activists say. In a report last October, new job January 7, can tions, he said. The US withdrawal departure after more than four years illusions about his new job or about Human Rights Watch said that “resi- succeed where his three could create a power vacuum in as Syria envoy reflected a sense of the intricacies of Middle Eastern dents from areas that have been re- predecessors failed. Syria and fan competition between frustration about the United Na- conflicts. taken by the government continue different parties to the conflict. This tions’ “lack of leverage,” the Guard- He served as the United Nations’ to face arbitrary and incomprehen- Dozens of people have been killed could delay any political solution, ian newspaper reported. special coordinator for Lebanon in sible restrictions on return to their in fighting in rebel-held parts of Orhan said, pointing out that Ped- 2007-08 and as the personal rep- homes and towns of origin and the northern Syria, as al-Qaeda-linked ersen’s three predecessors had all Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly resentative of the UN secretary- government continues to demolish militants pressed an offensive given up. correspondent. Arab overtures towards Damascus as Syria situation shifts

Sami Moubayed Body with full executive powers” to draft a new charter for Syria. trying to bring it down.” if the Syrian regime contains Iran to rule instead of Syrian President At the time, the Russians includ- One week later, a Kuwaiti dele- and Turkey. Crown Prince Moham- Beirut Bashar Assad, into a more realis- ed a handful of representatives gation visited Damascus and inter- med has distanced himself from tic “drafting of a new constitution from the opposition — such as hu- viewed Assad, running a favourable the regime change policy of his un- 018 in Syria ended on a for Syria” in accordance with UN man rights lawyer Haitham Manaa, review in the Kuwaiti newspaper al cle, the late Saudi King Abdullah high note, days after US Security Council Resolution 2254. Russia-backed activist Randa Kas- Shahed. In return, Assad showered bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. President Donald Trump Thanks to the military might of sis and tribal leader Ahmad Jarba, the Kuwaiti Emir Sabah Ahmad al- Also, Adel al-Jubeir, who has re- 2 announced that he would the Russian Air Force, gone is all former president of the Syrian Na- Jaber al-Sabah with praise. In De- peatedly called on Assad to step withdraw US forces from north- mention of Assad’s departure and tional Coalition — into the Sochi cember, Sudanese President Omar down, has been removed from the eastern Syria, which was music to of a power-sharing formula with process. Other figures, such as al-Bashir landed in Damascus, the position of Saudi foreign minister the ears of officials in Damascus, the Western-backed Syrian opposi- Khaled al-Mahameed, a prominent first Arab leader to visit Syria in but was named minister of state Tehran and Moscow. tion. doctor from the southern town of seven years. Many speculated he for foreign affairs. The new foreign The complete withdrawal, which Daraa, who resigned from the Sau- carried a goodwill message, either minister, Ibrahim al-Assaf, has will take 60-100 days, leaves Syr- In private circles, there is di-backed High Negotiations Com- from Saudi Arabia, to which he is made no comment yet on Syria. ian Kurds in a dire condition, given talk of a Saudi-led “Arab mittee in October and has put him- aligned in the Yemen war, or from Climbing down the ladder would that they had relied heavily — and self at the service of the Russian Qatar. be much easier for him than it solely — on US support for their initiative” for Syria, aimed endgame, are expected to join. Judging by the fierce coverage he would have been for Jubeir, if rap- military existence since 2015. at diluting Iranian influence Russian Foreign Minister Sergei has been getting in the Doha-based prochement does bear fruit with When the Americans are gone, and overshadowing the Lavrov has toyed with the idea Al Jazeera, his message was a Sau- Damascus. their territory will be overrun Astana process. of reviving the Sochi talks or em- di, not a Qatari one. Days later, the A Saudi-initiative might not by the Syrians, Turks and Rus- powering Astana at the expense of United Arab Emirates reopened its sound like a bad idea for Riyadh. sians. Already, Syrian forces have All sides agreed in December on Geneva. If he succeeds, this would embassy in Damascus and Leba- In 2017, Saudis reached out to for- entered the Kurdish-held city of 150 names — 50 for the govern- give his partners in Astana — the nese parliament Speaker Nabih mer adversaries in Iraq — all be- Manbij, west of the Euphrates ment, 50 for the opposition and 50 Turks and the Iranians — an upper Berri is insisting on inviting Syria ing historical allies of Iran — mak- River, threatening to overrun the for representatives of civil society hand in the Syrian political pro- to attend an economic summit ing friends with Muqtada al-Sadr, strategic cities of Qamishli and Ha- — for the constitutional assembly. cess. January 20 in Beirut. If that hap- Ammar al-Hakim and then-Prime sakah, once the US withdrawal is Damascus insists on leading the To prevent that, several Arab pens, Syria would be automatically Minister Haidar al-Abadi. Jumping complete. Left in the hands of the committee and getting a final say countries have been making over- readmitted into the Arab League behind enemy lines is something armed opposition would be one on its verdicts. There is no dead- tures towards Damascus, trying to and invited to attend its March the Saudis seem to be good at, real- city — Idlib in north-western Syria line for when the committee will lure Assad back to the Arab fold, summit in Tunis. ising that these figures were in Iraq — held by an assortment of jihadist start work or when it will finish, a hoping to minimise Iranian influ- In private circles, there is talk to stay and, by refusing to work groups since mid-2015. process that might take years. The ence in Syria. Four months ago, of a Saudi-led “Arab initiative” for with them, they were only leading Politically, new UN Special En- Russians have been trying to mi- Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid Syria, aimed at diluting Iranian them further and further into the voy for Syria Geir Pedersen is to grate the constitutional talks from bin Ahmed al-Khalifa took the ini- influence and overshadowing the Iranian orbit, losing any threshold assume his job in January, replac- Geneva to the Astana process, tiative, embracing Syrian Foreign Astana process. For that to hap- in Iraqi domestics. A similar policy ing Staffan de Mistura. Pedersen is where the Americans are absent Minister Walid Muallem on cam- pen, however, it would require might soon emerge on Syria. expected to jump-start a morbid and so is the United Nations. era at the United Nations. He then Saudi re-engagement with Damas- peace process, whose end objec- It has been one year since 1,500 appeared on Al Arabiya television cus, something that Saudi Crown Sami Moubayed is a Syrian tive has been dwarfed from creat- Syrian delegates assembled at saying: “We deal with the Syrian Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin historian and author of “Under the ing a “Transitional Government Sochi, Russia, where they agreed government and not with those Abdulaziz might be willing to do Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). January 6, 2019 11 News & Analysis Lebanon Anger simmers in Lebanon over government impasse

Sami Moubayed office, which if granted, would break his Future Party’s monopoly over Sunni representation. Beirut The Hariri team holds seven posts in government. Hezbollah ebanese parties and civil and its allies in the Amal Move- society organisations plan ment control six. Hariri said this a series of nationwide pro- request was not on Hezbollah’s list L tests in January, objecting of conditions when he was named to the chronic government crisis prime minister last spring. that has dragged on since last May. Murad — a former defence min- The first action is a strike organ- ister and wealthy businessman ised by the Businessmen Asso- — argued that he and his allies ciation, followed by the so-called deserve to stand in the cabinet, Lebanese Yellow Vests. On Janu- asking why Shias had two blocs in ary 12, a sit-in is to take place at the chamber (Amal and Hezbollah) the gates of the Ministry of La- and so did the Druze (represented bour, followed by two Communist by Walid Jumblatt and Emir Talal Party-led demonstrations, sched- Arslan) and the Christians (repre- uled for Beirut and other Lebanese sented by the Free Patriotic Move- cities, including Hezbollah’s home ment of Foreign Minister Gebran base in the Bekaa Valley. Bassil and the Lebanese Forces of Samir Geagea). Hariri agreed to give them one Behind-the-scenes, seat — but not from his share — Hezbollah said that its saying that it ought to be taken demands will not end from that of Hezbollah’s ally, Leba- with the naming of a nese President Michel Aoun. The Sunni minister. Aounists control eight seats in the caretaker government, which if Members of Lebanese Prime combined with their allies, would Minister Saad Hariri’s March 14 total 11. They hold powerful portfo- Alliance blame the crisis on Hez- lios such as foreign affairs, justice, bollah, whose secretary-general, economy and defence. Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah, stated last sum- and its allies control agriculture, mer that he would not endorse a finance and state development. government unless his Sunni allies The Hariri team suggested that were accommodated with one or Aoun name a Sunni figure as min- two portfolios. ister of presidential affairs, cur- This is a novelty in Lebanese rently earmarked for Pierre Ra- Sparks flying. A Lebanese man shouts slogans during a protest against the months-long failure of (dpa) politics. Previously, Nasrallah’s foul, a biographer of the president rival political factions to agree on forming a new government, December 23. only condition for joining a cabi- and ranking member of the Free net was that the prime minister Patriotic Movement. leading polling company, as the Damascus and ends his vocal di Arabia will make or break the include a clause in his government The proposal was rejected by additional Sunni minister, hoping support for the Syrian opposition. Arab rapprochement with Syria policy, pledging to “embrace and Bassil — Aoun’s son-in-law — who that would appease Nasrallah and When returning to power in and, if it happens, Hariri will have protect arms of the resistance.” fears that any concession would be the “Sunni Opposition.” 2016, Hariri spoke of “neutrality” to either follow suit or step down. Every prime minister since the at his personal expense, given that He was willing to give a seat from in the Syrian crisis, refusing to en- Hezbollah is pressuring officials civil war has abided by that rule, he stands as “shadow president,” the presidential share to facilitate gage with Damascus, at any level. to invite Syria to an economic including Saad Hariri and his fa- in light of his father-in-law’s ad- the process, saying that Hariri’s lot Ministers in his cabinet from Hez- summit January 19-20 in Beirut. ther Rafik. vanced age, and aims at becom- would stand unaffected. They re- bollah and Amal ignored him, pay- Their ally, Speaker Nabih Berri, By norm, every parliamentary ing a “shadow prime minister” jected him, however, saying Adra ing numerous visits to Damascus, has made it clear that the summit bloc is entitled to one cabinet post as well, through a majority hold was an outsider who doesn’t share which made Hariri look weak be- will not pass without Syria. per five MPs. Nasrallah was refer- in the cabinet. The Free Patriotic their political programme or back- fore his own constituency. Parties loyal to the March 14 Al- ring to a bloc of six MPs, known Movement has already conceded, ground. That hard-line position will have liance warned of repercussions as the “Sunni Opposition,” led by he argued, surrendering the post Behind-the-scenes, Hezbollah to change if his allies in the Gulf of such invitation, particularly if ex-ministers Faisal Karami and of deputy prime minister to the said that its demands will not re-establish diplomatic ties with made without the consent of the Abdulrahim Murad. Hariri has per- Lebanese Forces. end with the naming of a Sunni Damascus. The United Arab Emir- Arab League. The more Hariri’s sistently refused to cave on this Aoun in December suggested minister. They insist that Hariri’s ates has reopened its embassy in March 14 Alliance insists, the more demand, claiming that their bloc naming his friend Jawad Adra, cabinet will only pass if the prime Damascus and relations are thaw- Hezbollah will obstruct the forma- was too small to merit government a Sunni technocrat who heads a minister mends bridges with ing with Kuwait and Bahrain. Sau- tion of the government.

Viewpoint Why Lebanon’s problems serve the interests of Hezbollah

018 did not bring Leba- Israeli threats to Lebanon have what has prevented the formation work of the major political forces non any relief from its seemingly intensified. There of a new government in Lebanon in the country and hold them ac- many crises. With the was an escalation in the tension but igniting divisiveness is one of countable to its decisions, albeit on behalf of the government. Ali al-Amin dawn of the new year, between the two countries that the basic tools used by Hezbollah there doesn’t seem to culminated with the exposure by to control the state apparatus. Through this game, Hezbollah be any indication of a Israel of the tunnels running under Let’s not forget that the impres- obstructs any chance for a genu- 2strong will on the part of Lebanese the Lebanese-Israeli border. A sion that Hezbollah adamantly ine opposition. Using money and authorities to seriously deal with UN report confirmed the exist- wants to create is that the Leba- weapons, it completes its control the political, economic and social ence of the tunnels but Hezbollah nese state is weak and therefore any force in the country that problems plaguing the country. observed an unusual silence about cannot be a normal state and that presents itself as belonging to the Parliamentary elections took them. the abnormal existence of Hezbol- opposition. All opposition in Leba- place last May in Lebanon after Israel exploited the misdeed lah as a rogue military force in non can oppose everything except a delay of about five years. Eight diplomatically and politically to Lebanon is necessary to mitigate Hezbollah. In recent street protests months after the elections, Leba- the fullest while Lebanon confined the repercussions of having a weak against deteriorating economic non is still without a government. itself to sending an official com- state. Naturally, Hezbollah does conditions, Hezbollah made sure The CEDRE Conference for Leba- plaint to the United Nations about not wish for the Lebanese state to to inject its followers among the non, a month before the election, Israeli violations of UN Security regain full control of the country demonstrators to appear to be an garnered about $12 billion in aid Council Resolution 1701. because that would wipe out the opposition force. and soft loans to help the country What was strange about the justification for its existence. Hezbollah wants to be in the get out of its repetitive crises. Yet, incident was Hezbollah’s eerie si- By constantly harassing the government to control this govern- nobody in the circles of power lence. Hezbollah has never missed state’s sovereignty in Lebanon, ment and it wants to be in the op- seems to care about the risk of a chance to kick up a storm about Hezbollah controls the various position to control this opposition. having the results of the confer- the slightest Israeli action and used power mechanisms in the country It wants to control even the pos- ence revoked for non-compliance it to consolidate its dominance to the point that it is difficult to sibility of an opposition. The party with the reform requirements of of the Lebanese state. This time imagine an important decision wants to prevent the establishment the donors. Hezbollah was mute. being made in Lebanon without of an official Lebanese authority Regarding Syrian refugees, Leba- It had always made a big fuss Hezbollah being the one making it, because, without the existence of non has sought the help of interna- about the Israeli occupation of the regardless of whether that decision this authority, Hezbollah can grow tional institutions and the world’s Shebaa Farms, without necessar- was related to security or politics and expand its control. major powers. The performance ily acting to liberate them. Now, or even the economy and finance. Lebanon will go on in 2019 being of the political authorities has the party seems to have forgotten Hezbollah is keen on preventing the ultimate prey of Iran and its not been credible because of the about them. No clamour and no the existence of a genuine op- proxy, Hezbollah. It stands to be Lebanese government’s inability action. position. Any had to be loyal to it a consolation prize for Hezbollah to show diligence in dealing with It provided comfort to Israel by and only it. This is why Hezbollah and Iran for the loss they are likely the issue and its many associated remaining in Syria and undermin- insists on starting the tradition of to suffer in Syria as a result of inter- problems. ing the position of the Lebanese having a government of national national and regional pressures to Lebanon will go on Lebanese authorities were un- state. Every day we learn a bit more unity to ensure the participation in weaken Tehran’s clout there. able to uphold the official policy of about how vulnerable Hezbollah the government of most of the po- Lebanon could be paying a in 2019 being the keeping away from the Syrian crisis has made the Lebanese state by litical forces in the country, as long double price, one for Hezbollah’s ultimate prey of or to ensure the return of displaced limiting its scope of actions and by as Hezbollah remains the actual misadventure in Syria and a second Iran and its proxy, Syrians to their homes, particularly offering Israel military and security decision maker. for its dangerous return from there. in areas controlled by Hezbollah excuses to threaten Lebanon. To this end, it is OK from Hezbol- Hezbollah. along the border with Syria. It seems that political division is lah’s point of view to disrupt the Ali al-Amin is a Lebanese writer. 12 January 6, 2019 2018-2019 in Transition MENA in Focus 2018 was year of highs and lows for Gulf countries Caline Malek

Abu Dhabi

018 profoundly marked the Gulf and the Middle East at large, with improvements 2 and drawbacks that affected the region on different levels, par- ticularly for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Should the agreement reached in Sweden between warring parties in Yemen evolve into a permanent solution to the conflict, rebuild- ing Yemen will replace ending the fighting as a pressing issue. “The GCC countries, minus Qatar and Oman, are involved with the Arab coalition in backing the inter- nationally recognised government of Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi,” said Albadr Al Shateri, a politics profes- sor at the National Defence College in Abu Dhabi. “The thaw in the rela- Concerns and achievements. Leaders from the six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council meet in Riyadh, December 9. (SPA) tionship between the Yemeni gov- ernment and the Houthi rebels and the war effort back to the econom- especially during its 1986 civil war, Shateri said oil prices will have a Arab world, along with the global the delicate ceasefire in Hodeidah ic development, so you will have and various external parties in the direct effect on the health of GCC community, condemned the US achieved recently might become much more cash flow available for 1994 civil war in ‘united’ Yemen,” economies and contribute 60-90% recognition of Jerusalem as a capi- the harbinger for similar ceasefires all these projects to develop the said Mark Katz, professor of gov- of government revenues. “With tal of the state of Israel. Palestinians on different fronts that potentially socio-economic conditions. So, ernment and politics at the Schar high oil prices and the war winding are not sanguine and people who could congeal into a reconciliation instead of spending this money School of Policy and Government down in Yemen, the expectations had a sneak preview of the deal of between both parties.” on buying ammunition and spare at George Mason University. “Like are positive with regard to the level the century are likewise despond- He said reconciliation would not parts, it will now go to the eco- Afghanistan, Yemen is a very diffi- of economic growth and higher jobs ent of its outcome.” end the GCC’s involvement in Yem- nomic growth of countries and the cult place for any external party to creation rate for the GCC,” he said. Kahwaji said the United States’ en but it would change its nature region,” he added. intervene in and the best solution The year also witnessed US Presi- withdrawal from the nuclear deal because the Gulf will be engaged Kahwaji said it would also halt may be to promote some kind of in- dent Donald Trump announcing with Iran redrew alliances, with in developmental and reconstruc- the threat posed by the Houthis, ternal solution.” that the United States would no a regional escalation against Iran tion schemes. “Rebuilding the state who are “working with Iran in the longer abide by the Iran nuclear from the United States with the im- and the infrastructure and invest- region,” forming the first confron- deal, officially the Joint Compre- position of sanctions. ing in different economic sectors to tation in which Arab Gulf states The United States’ hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). “As the sanctions grow harder provide jobs and much-needed ser- scored a major victory against an withdrawal from the nuclear “Washington won few plaudits and the list of countries that have vices will be a mammoth undertak- Iranian proxy group that was estab- deal with Iran redrew from different quarters of the world been exempt from oil imports start ing,” he explained. “The GCC has its lishing itself on the southern bor- alliances, with a regional who have always believed the deal shrinking, pressure will increase,” work cut out for it in post-conflict ders of Saudi Arabia. escalation against Iran. was flawed,” Shateri explained. he said. “We will see whether Iran stabilisation.” “That’s also another major “The reaction in Europe was differ- will carry out its threats of closing Riad Kahwaji, founder and CEO achievement,” he noted. “This will One especially positive benefit ent and defied the US move. Europe the Strait of Hormuz but 2019 will of the Institute for Near East and also give a big boost to the efforts of for the Gulf, he said, was the in- announced that it would meet its definitely be full of heated fronts Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, creating the Arab NATO because it creased willingness of Russia to obligation as long as Tehran stood with Iran, very much related to the said Yemen had the largest effect demonstrated a major achievement cooperate with Saudi Arabia, in by the JCPOA and the EU entered US administration’s position to end on the region in 2018. “The major for an operation that was launched, particular on restraining oil produc- into the negotiation at once with this nuclear deal.” offensive in Hodeidah, which led to managed and carried out by the tion. “As a result, oil prices have re- Iran to devise how it would avoid Katz said the Trump administra- the Houthis accepting to go to the Arab coalition.” cently been relatively high despite the new US sanctions while avert- tion’s hostility is an element that negotiating table in Sweden, is the Other experts said Yemen has not the downward pressure on them ing them against its own compa- most Gulf Arabs welcome. “But biggest event of the year that will gone as well for the Gulf powers. from increased American shale pro- nies.” while the administration’s pressure definitely have a major long-term “Yemen, though, has proved dif- duction,” he said. He said the Middle East’s per- on Iran may lead to Tehran having impact on the region politically and ficult for other external powers Oil prices improved dramatically, ennial conflict took a turn for the to devote more time and attention economically for the coming years,” attempting to forcefully intervene with the OPEC average price reach- worse as the long-touted “Deal of to suppressing its internal oppo- he said. there in the past, including the ing the highest since 2015. In 2018, the Century” had not transpired. nents, it may also motivate it to lash “An end to the war will enable Egyptians in North Yemen and the the price per barrel averaged $71.2 “The deal was prefaced with a con- out through increasing support for countries like Saudi Arabia and the British in South Yemen during the compared to $52.51 in 2017 and troversial move of the US Embassy its Shia militia allies elsewhere,” he UAE to divert a lot of money from 1960s, the Soviets in South Yemen, $40.68 in 2016. to Jerusalem,” Shateri noted. “The added. Viewpoint 2019 may be a happier new year than before for Palestinians

rediction is a mug’s game peace” and added there was “no the Trump administration no some way to reigniting the spark of but there is a reasonable credible alternative to the two-state longer even bothers to conceal its hope that has gone out in the heart Rashmee chance 2019 will be a solution.” extreme bias towards Israel and of Palestinians across the world.” Roshan Lall rather better year for Pal- The Trump “deal” won’t bring its determination to unilaterally The Spanish, Irish and French estinians than the previ- peace to the Middle East but it will dismantle the three core elements seem to be cleaving to the same Pous two. end the persistent futility of hoping of the Oslo peace process: the agenda, one that seeks to inject For starters, US President Donald the United States is a peacemaker. status of Jerusalem, the issue hope into a seemingly faltering Trump may unveil his much- As we shall probably learn in 2019, of Palestinian refugees and the movement, which powerful hyped “Deal of the Century.” On a two-state solution — as mapped creation of two states. players are trying to bludgeon into February 8, the British parliament out by the 1993 Oslo Accords — That there is profound incoherence. is to debate official recognition of will not feature in Trump’s big- disagreement internationally Even at the end of 2018, a truly Palestinian statehood. ticket “deal.” In fact, it won’t be a with such a sweeping and unfair terrible year for Palestinians, The new year may see Spain deal so much as a sell-out of the redefinition of Palestinian rights their leaders are neither addled and Ireland make good on their Palestinians creating something and Israeli responsibilities may nor incapacitated by grief. stated intentions to recognise that has been called a “state- become very clear in 2019. The On December 1, Saeb Erekat, Palestinian statehood. France, too, minus” or a pretend state. British parliamentary vote on secretary-general of the Palestinian is exploring recognition. Madrid Palestinians will probably be Palestinian statehood will probably Liberation Organisation and chief may have success with its push for offered local autonomy over come soon after the Trump “deal” negotiator, bullishly declared the European Union as a whole to approximately 40% of the West and provide an indication of the the White House “requires giant recognise Palestinian statehood. Bank and that in disconnected mood in key European countries. statesmen not real estate agents.” That would make 2019 a happier chunks but not broad sovereign It’s not possible to predict the It was a statement of Palestinian year than any since 2017 when rights. Gaza would be under outcome of the British vote. That disdain for Trump, a real Trump entered the White House. supposed Palestinian control but the bill is to be debated at all, estate developer, and his chief He’s been bragging about his deal Israel would run security; most having been tabled by the first Palestinian-Israeli deal-maker, ever since but 2019 may show it of the land, sea and air access; British member of parliament son-in-law Jared Kushner, whose is a boast too far — and a cruel electricity and trade. of Palestinian ethnicity, says speciality also is property. belittlement of Palestinians the The Trump “deal” will serve at something. Disdain is good at this point. It world won’t countenance. least one useful purpose, especially Add to that the effectiveness allows the Palestinians — for all Gallic exasperation with if it drops relatively early in the of British-Palestinian MP Layla their fragmentation — to unite America’s increasing callousness new year. Having blown up, once Moran’s reasoned and reasonable around a shared idea of justice and towards the Palestinian people and for all, American pretensions championing of the Palestinian inalienable rights. was apparent in September when to being an honest broker between cause. Moran, who speaks Arabic That parts of the world beyond That parts of the French President Emmanuel Palestinians and Israelis, it will among other languages, and whose the United States may join with the world beyond the Macron used the UN General leave the rest of 2019 open to more mother is a Palestinian Christian, Palestinians in 2019 will mean a United States may Assembly to rebuke Trump’s serious attempts from elsewhere to said it is “vital” for Britain to happier new year. “unilateral initiatives” on the alleviate the situation. acknowledge its role in the join with the Palestinian-Israeli issue. In that sense, the Trump “deal” Palestinian-Israeli impasse. Rashmee Roshan Lall is a Palestinians in 2019 Macron insisted the crisis could can only be a good thing. It is best She admitted that the United columnist for The Arab Weekly. Her not be resolved by “trampling to dispense with the fiction the Kingdom recognising the state blog can be found at w will mean a happier on the legitimate rights of the United States intends to deal fairly of Palestine “alone won’t be a ww.rashmee.com and she is on new year. Palestinian people to legitimate with the Palestinians considering solution” but said “it would go Twitter: @rashmeerl. January 6, 2019 13 2018-2019 in Transition MENA in Focus Syrian peace dividends for China in 2019

real estate market. Recently, Chinese provincial infrastructural projects have been Alessandro severely reduced by Beijing’s new Arduino financial policy against dubious public-private partnerships; the real estate market is presenting signs of another bubble explosion hile the military and exports are in the crosshairs situation in of US President Donald Trump’s Syria is riddled tariff targeting. with uncertain- Because China’s domestic ties, China is consumer base is not sufficiently swiftly plac- mature to consume the products, Wing its Belt and Road Initiative at Chinese FDI in infrastructure the helm of the Syrian economic projects overseas, such as in reconstruction process. Syria, will play a critical role During the last decades, the in economic growth. While in situation in the Middle East and Afghanistan, Chinese investments North Africa has been character- were protected by the Interna- ised by a dangerous mix of volatil- tional Security Assistance Force ity and often violent political but in Syria the story is quite transitions. In this respect, China different. The increased pres- is trying to avoid interfering with ence of Chinese workers and the the domestic affairs of other need for secure investments will countries. Will Beijing dodge encourage Beijing to upgrade its involvement in regional confron- state-owned enterprises’ security tations in 2019? playbook as well as the export and Abiding by its decade-long Economic diplomacy. Chinese and Syrian businessmen shake hands behind their infrastructure credit insurance principle of non-interference, national flags during a meeting to discuss Syria’s reconstruction in Beijing, last May. system. Beijing diplomatically supported (Reuters) The competition for business Syrian President Bashar Assad opportunities in Syria will insert without creating major fric- alliances. Especially in the MENA process. China into competitive coop- tion points with other powers area, China perceives alliances The predicted peace dividends eration with Russian, Iranian involved in the conflict. Although as dangerous, potentially forcing that China will collect in 2019 are and Lebanese firms. Beijing’s having refrained from involve- Beijing to become an unwilling not risk-free. Chinese financial undoubted advantage is the ment in the Syrian struggle regional security provider. Us- gains will be greatly affected by preferential line of credit that the directly and avoiding the deploy- ing China’s interest in Afghan non-financial security threats, Chinese state investment banks ment of its armed forces or proxy economic development as an ranging from the safety of Chi- can place on the bargaining table militias the way other powers example, Beijing diplomats are nese workers, infrastructure pro- from day one. have, China has been increas- among the few able to talk with tection and a wide range of local A deeper involvement in Syr- ingly active at the UN level. This all the main players in the area, rivalries that Chinese FDI could ian affairs could be a catalyst in relatively low-key but important including the Taliban. exacerbate. Nevertheless, several changing the Chinese from its support of Syria has given Beijing However, Chinese promises of Chinese state-owned enterprises decade-old reactive stance in the opportunity to be part of the foreign direct investment (FDI) are already extending their feelers favour of a more proactive and co- national reconstruction process, a to Kabul are just a tiny fraction into Damascus. herent policy in the MENA region. game that Beijing plays very well of potential Chinese financial in- The growth of the Chinese China’s interests in Syria are not and with its own rules. volvement with Syrian economic economy in 2019 is predicted to only economic but also political, Syria is one of Russia’s closest reconstruction. Economists are be slower than in 2018 and the as the Syrian conflict risks inflam- Middle Eastern allies but China’s forecasting that Syria will be opportunity to export industrial ing domestic tensions in China’s diplomacy is marked by realpoli- among the fastest growing coun- overcapacity to Syria will have a Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous tik. Chinese economic diplomacy tries by GDP in the coming year. significant effect not only for the Region. China is facing the return is bent on forging strategic eco- The reconstruction bill is ex- Assad regime. of battle-hardened Uighur com- nomic partnerships rather than pected to surpass $400 billion and The new Chinese lunar year batants who have been fighting a 2017 World Bank report estimat- will see the real effects of the US- under the banner of the Turkistan ed that, from 2011-16, cumulative China trade friction, even as the Islamic Party, other al-Qaeda The competition for business losses in GDP totalled $226 billion. United States imposes new tariffs affiliated organisations and even China will not sustain all the affecting more than $360 billion the Islamic State. opportunities in Syria will financial efforts but multilateral of traded merchandise. China’s insert China into competitive development banks, such as the economic growth is still based on Alessandro Arduino is the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure exports, internal infrastructure author of “China’s Private Army. cooperation with Russian, Investment Bank, will be major development and the sale of land- Protecting the New Silk Road,” Iranian and Lebanese firms. players in the reconstruction use rights to the overheated local Palgrave-Macmillan, 2018. Russia set to build on Middle East policy successes

the major actors in the Middle East World Cup match last June and the valiantly to mollify Putin, Israeli — except jihadists — despite their G20 summit in Argentina indicate media accounts claim that the antagonism towards one another. that theirs is a genuinely warm country’s attacks on Syrian targets Mark N. Katz Moscow, for example, has good relationship at a time the West is have continued. This points to the relations with Iran but also with critical of both. possibility that Russia is unable its arch-enemy, Israel. It has good Finally, a great achievement to prevent more serious conflicts relations with Saudi Arabia, the of Moscow’s Middle East policy between Israel and Iran, Hezbol- United Arab Emirates and Egypt as has been that none of the United lah and the Assad regime. ussian foreign policy well as with their rival Qatar. States’ traditional allies in the Moscow’s good relations with towards the Middle While Moscow has maintained region has joined with the West both sides may not be enough to East was highly suc- close ties to various Kurdish in imposing economic sanctions influence their behaviour towards cessful in 2018 and groups, Russian relations with against Russia for its aggressive each other. Nor would Moscow Moscow seems set to Turkey, which fears Kurdish na- policies towards Ukraine, efforts to welcome US military involvement build onto this success tionalism, have improved. Indeed, kill Putin opponents in the United that such a conflict could well lead Rin 2019. The Russians, though, it appears that Putin has better ties Kingdom or other actions the West to. may encounter problems in the with mercurial Turkish President disapproves of. The economic life- More broadly, Moscow has region, some of which may stem Recep Tayyip Erdogan than Tur- line from the Gulf Arab states in benefited from the fact that the from its success there. key’s Western allies do. particular has allowed Moscow not Middle East has had high expecta- One of Russian President Putin has continued to take just to blunt the effects of West- tions of the United States — and Vladimir Putin’s most important advantage of tensions between the ern sanctions but also to lessen been disappointed when those are Middle East successes has been West and Middle Eastern govern- Russian dependence on China in not met — but low expectations of in Syria. Russian military support ments over human rights issues overcoming them. Russia, which Middle Eastern ac- solidified the once-beleaguered that are of little or no concern to The success of Putin’s Middle tors have been gratified with when Assad regime and helped it retake Moscow. Despite Russia’s verbal East policy may well continue in these are exceeded. territory lost to its opponents. support for the Palestinian cause, 2019 and beyond. Indeed, he may However, the more successful While a peace settlement in Syria Moscow has shown no sign of not have to take much initiative Moscow’s Middle East policy has yet to be reached, Moscow is joining growing Western criticism himself but simply be willing and becomes, the greater Middle dominating the diplomatic effort of Israel over its treatment of the able to exploit the many differ- Eastern expectations of Russia to achieve one. No other country Palestinians. ences among others. will become and if Russia cannot is sponsoring one that competes Similarly, while Western publics Still, not everything may go fulfil the growing expectations, with it. and even governments have Putin’s way. Russian-Israeli rela- many Middle Eastern actors may Russia has also continued to become increasingly critical of tions were damaged in September respond by continuing their reli- maintain good relations with all Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed when, as a result of an Israeli air ance on the United States despite bin Salman bin Abdulaziz both in attack against the Assad regime, their disappointments with Wash- response to what is believed to Syrian forces shot down a Russian ington. The economic lifeline from the be his role in the death of Saudi military aircraft. Moscow blamed Gulf states has allowed Moscow journalist Jamal Khashoggi as Israel for this incident (even Mark N. Katz, a professor of well as his bombing campaign in though it was the Assad regime government and politics at the not just to blunt the effects of Yemen, Putin has made a point of that downed the Russian aircraft) George Mason University Schar Western sanctions but also to not making a point about these and sternly warned Israel against School of Policy and Government, issues. Indeed, photos of Putin’s further such behaviour. is the 2018 Sir William Luce Fellow lessen Russian dependence on meetings with Crown Prince Yet while Israeli Prime Minister at Durham University in the United China in overcoming them. Mohammed at the Saudi-Russian Binyamin Netanyahu has tried Kingdom. 14 January 6, 2019 News & Analysis Terrorism in Maghreb Tripoli issues surprise arrest warrant for Belhaj

Michel Cousins regime. The United Kingdom paid him and his wife more than $600,000 as compensation. Tunis Arrest warrants were also issued for leading Islamist militia com- he Libyan Attorney Gen- mander in Zawia, west of Tripo- eral’s Office in Tripoli li, Shaaban Masoud Hadia, also dropped a political bomb- known as Abu Obaida al-Zawi, and T shell, issuing arrest war- Ibrahim Jadhran, who was respon- rants for one of Libya’s top post- sible for shutting down Libya’s oil 2011 actors and other key figures in terminals from 2013-16. the Libya crisis. Since then, Jadhran has tried re- A total of 31 Chadian and Suda- peatedly to recapture the terminals nese militants in Libya were also in alliance with members of the charged. All are accused of involve- quasi-Islamist Benghazi Defence ment in attacks on oil terminals Brigades. There had been repeated and on the airbase at Tamanhent, calls on the attorney general by the near Sabha in southern Libya. National Oil Corporation to take Abdelhakim Belhaj, the most legal action against Jadhran and prominent figure named on the others involved in attacking the oil warrants, leads Libya’s pro-Islam- terminals. ist Watan Party. A former fighter Belhaj denied accusations lev- in Afghanistan against the Soviets elled against him, which centre and later the leader of Libyan Is- on allegations that Sudanese and lamic Fighting Group, which was Chadian mercenaries were paid to allied to al-Qaeda and the Taliban create chaos in Libya. In the crosshairs. A 2011 file picture shows Abdelhakim Belhaj, leader of Libya’s pro-Islamist Watan in Afghanistan, he became head of It is not known what the conse- Party, during a public debate at Tripoli University. (AFP) Tripoli Military Council after the quences of the arrest warrant will 2011 revolution. be but Belhaj, who is in Turkey, has Chadian and Sudanese fighters Following the Traghen attack, the claim from the Tripoli govern- Since then he has branched out supporters in Tripoli and there are have been active in southern Libya LNA forces went to Ghudwa, be- ment’s interior minister that the into business, allegedly with the fears there may be violence as a re- in recent years, hiring themselves lieved to be the base for the ban- three suicide attackers on the For- help of Qatar, although he is still sult. He was quoted by the pro-Is- out to the highest bidder or some- dits. The attackers were not there eign Ministry on December 25 were seen as primarily a controversial lamist Nabaa TV saying that it was times kidnapping local Libyans for but hostages were found in two “dark-skinned.” political figure. He has been said to unlikely the arrest warrants will be ransom. The majority are Chad- containers. The hostages were said The claim resulted in accusations be involved with Tunisia’s terrorist implemented in Tripoli. ian, some being members of the to have been taken October 28 by of racism and suggestions that Ansar al-Sharia organisation, an ac- The move to arrest people widely Chadian opposition movement the ISIS during a particularly brutal the minister was trying to insinu- cusation he denied. seen as beyond the law follows a Military Command Council for the attack on the southern village of ate that foreigners, not Libyans, In June 2017, Belhaj was includ- week of no less startling events. Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR). Fugha and others captured dur- were responsible for the attack. ed on a list of suspected terrorists On January 1, Libyan National Others are freelance bandits, with ing an attack November 23 on the The ministry issued a statement linked to Qatar issued by Bahrain, Army (LNA) forces freed 22 hos- no political attachment. police station in southern town of that it did not discriminate on any Egypt, the United Arab Emirates tages who had been seized weeks Tazerbo. grounds but it was pointed out and Saudi Arabia and subsequently earlier by suspected Islamic State Authorities are now question- that, following the suicide attack endorsed by the House of Repre- (ISIS) gunmen. They were discov- In June 2017, Belhaj was ing whether ISIS was involved in on the National Oil Corporation sentatives, Libya’s parliament in ered after an attack December 27 included on a list of the attacks or whether there are headquarters in Tripoli on Septem- Tobruk. on a military camp at Traghen, suspected terrorists linked links between the Chadians and ber 10, there was a similar claim Last May, British Prime Minister 125km from Sabha. to Qatar issued by Bahrain, ISIS. So far there are no answers, about “dark-skinned” attackers. although, in a potentially signifi- Whether Chadians linked to ISIS Theresa May issued an unprec- Following the assault, in which Egypt, the United Arab edented apology in the British par- one soldier was killed, several oth- cant twist, the Attorney General’s were involved in the two attacks is liament over British intelligence’s ers injured and 24 army vehicles re- Emirates and Saudi Arabia Office announced that a leading at issue. involvement in Belhaj’s capture portedly stolen, LNA units tracked and subsequently endorsed CCMSR member had been arrested and rendition to Libya in 2004 and the attackers, said to be Chadian by Libya’s parliament in in Tripoli Michel Cousins is a contributor to subsequent torture by the Qaddafi irregulars. Tobruk. The issue is further confused by The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. Sleeper terrorist cells highlight Morocco’s homegrown threat

Saad Guerraoui “We cannot remain seated, wit- nessing the destruction caused by Crusader planes,” said the suspects Casablanca in the video in reference to Western air strikes in Syria and Iraq. he terror attack in Moroc- However, police and domestic co’s Imlil region, in which intelligence spokesman Boubker two Scandinavian women Sabik said the attack was not coor- T were killed, was based on dinated with ISIS and described the the attackers’ initiative and not suspects as “lone wolves.” outside influences, officials said. A Swiss man with a Spanish na- The decapitated bodies of Lou- tionality was arrested December isa Vesterager Jespersen, 24, from 29 in connection with the killings. Denmark, and Maren Ueland, 28, He is suspected of “involvement in from Norway, were found by other recruiting Moroccan and sub-Saha- tourists December 17 in an isolated ran nationals to carry out terrorist area in Chamharouch, 10km from plots in Morocco against foreign the village of Imlil in the Atlas targets and security forces in order Mountains, a popular tourist spot to take hold of their service weap- known for hiking and trekking. ons,” the Central Bureau for Judi- cial Investigations said. Political analyst Hafid Ezzahri BCIJ has dismantled 57 warned that Morocco was facing militant cells allegedly “franchised terrorism,” in which planning attacks in the terrorists act as lone wolves to country, including 20 in jeopardise the country’s security. the last two years. “Terrorism has no religion or a specific identity. The Imlil attack A grisly video purporting to show showed that there are sleeper cells On alert. A police vehicle is seen on a road near the tourist village of Imlil in the High Atlas range, the beheading of one of the victims which are likely to strike anywhere December 18. (AFP) and authenticated by the Danish and announce their allegiance to intelligence service went viral on ISIS,” Ezzahri said. social media. The video was remi- The Imlil terror attack is the first ism, which is an essential compo- in the Imlil region,” said Ezzahri. 1,669 Moroccan jihadists, includ- niscent of the Islamic State’s style of its kind in Morocco’s rural areas. nent of the Moroccan economy. Morocco set up the FBI-like ing some with dual nationality, had of killing victims and was intended The most recent previous terror at- “It is hard for the authorities to Central Bureau for Judicial Inves- been arrested. to sow fear among viewers, ana- tack in Morocco was in April 2011 in protect these areas and easier for tigations (BCIJ) in 2015 to counter BCIJ has adopt­ed a pro-active lysts said. Marrakech, claiming 17 lives. Mo- organisations like ISIS to start op- terrorism. BCIJ has dismantled 57 policy to counter terrorism by Moroccan authorities said four rocco has been largely spared mili- erating in these places,” said Rami. militant cells allegedly planning at- closely monitoring Moroccan ji- suspects in the killings acted on tant attacks thanks, at least in part, Ezzahri echoed Rami’s remarks, tacks in the country, including 20 hadists returning from conflict their own initiative, although they to its efficient security services. saying that the attackers chose soft in the last two years. zones. had pledged allegiance to Islamic Abdellah Rami, a Moroccan ex- targets in an area with far less secu- Hundreds of Moroccans joined State (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al- pert on Islamist movements, told rity than in major cities. ISIS in the conflict zones in the Saad Guerraoui is a contributor Baghdadi a week before in a video the New York Times that the attack “The suspects’ choice was strate- Middle East. Moroccan authorities to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb posted on social media. targeted vital matters such as tour- gic due to the high tourist activity said that 242 out of a suspected issues. January 6, 2019 15 2018-2019 in Transition Palestine Israel Year of speculation over ‘Deal of the Century’ sours US-Palestinian ties Manuel Langendorf Trump administration stated at various points that the deal was almost finalised, while stressing London that no exact release date had been set. In a recent interview with Fox ast year was a turbulent News, Kushner said the peace plan time for US-Palestinian re- would be released “in the next lations. The crisis between couple of months.” L Washington and Ramallah He added that “this plan will goes back to US President Donald keep the Israeli people safe and Trump’s decision to move the US give them a good future but also Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusa- give a real opportunity and hope lem. The decision was heavily pro- for the Palestinian people so that tested by Palestinians, who claim they can live much better lives.” East Jerusalem as the capital of a Kushner cautioned that “not every future Palestinian state. side is going to love” the proposal. Throughout 2018 speculation Almost two years into the Trump about the Trump administration’s presidency and six months after policy towards Israel and the Pales- the Al-Quds interview, details re- tinian territories revolved around main scarce. the so-called “Deal of the Century,” “While we are still awaiting the an initiative spearheaded by Jared details of a future US peace plan, in Kushner, the president’s son-in- practice the Trump administration law and aide, and Jason Greenb- appears to be rolling back decades latt, Trump’s representative for of policy supporting Palestinian international negotiations. Having statehood,” said Hugh Lovatt, pol- presented himself as a dealmaker, icy fellow at the European Council Trump expressed the desire to on Foreign Relations. achieve what no president before All major Palestinian factions, in- him had managed to do: end the cluding Palestinian Authority (PA) Israeli-Palestinian conflict. President Mahmoud Abbas and US-mediated negotiations be- Hamas, have rejected the peace tween Israelis and Palestinians col- plan. The United States closed the Bitter pills to swallow. A member of Palestinian security forces stands in front of a poster of President lapsed in 2014 before the start of Palestinian mission in Washington Mahmoud Abbas during a protest against US decision to cut funds to UNRWA, in the West Bank city of a major war in the Gaza Strip. The and drastically cut funding for the Bethlehem, last September. (AFP) Trump team has remained tight- PA, UN Relief and Works Agency lipped about its plan, revealing few for Palestine Refugees in the Near situation.” ever, after the killing of journal- in large-scale humanitarian relief details about the bargain it was East and other projects in the oc- The Trump administration’s de- ist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi to Gaza. working on. Nevertheless, Kush- cupied territories. cisions to cut funding and sever Consulate in Istanbul and amid in- Despite past reconciliation ner has indicated that an economic “Such steps,” Lovatt said, “will ties with the PA will affect Wash- tensified scrutiny of Saudi Crown agreements, inner-Palestinian di- plan was at the heart of the deal. be difficult to reverse, even under ington’s role as the main broker Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin visions persist. Abbas has tried to “Israel’s prosperity would spill future administrations in Ramal- of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Abdulaziz, such efforts might be pressure Hamas by limiting sup- over very quickly to the Palestin- lah and Washington.” Lovatt argued. “A future US peace less forthcoming. Saudi King Sal- plies to Gaza. This has included ians if there is peace,” Kushner told The United Nations and PA on plan that goes against long-stand- man bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is said withholding fuel or stopping pay- Al-Quds newspaper in June, add- December 17 began an appeal for ing international consensus posi- to have taken a stronger stance ments for the electricity supply to ing that neighbouring countries $350 million in aid for Palestin- tions on how to resolve conflict against concessions towards Israel. the enclave. Jordan and Egypt would stand to ians in 2019. Speaking in Ramal- will, in all likelihood, further un- Abbas has been aiming to shore In this climate and with Israeli benefit. What is more, Kushner lah, Jamie McGoldrick, the UN dermine US ownership of this file,” up support in Cairo and Amman at elections next year, many remain said, the region would become humanitarian coordinator in the he said. a time when tensions are high in sceptical about the Deal of the more connected through “very sig- Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Media reports said the Trump the West Bank after a series of at- Century’s chances of success. The nificant investments in infrastruc- Jerusalem, said the United Nations administration had hoped Saudi tacks. He is warily eyeing develop- damage to the US-Palestinian re- ture from the public and private would be able to assist fewer peo- Arabia would pressure the Pales- ments in the Gaza Strip, ruled by lationship, at a “low point,” “this sectors.” ple than last year. He warned that tinians and other regional players Hamas. Observers said the PA fears time round may be more endur- As the year dragged on, the Gaza faced a “dire humanitarian to accept the US peace plan. How- being cut out of a deal that results ing,” Lovatt concluded. Interview Diana Buttu: ‘We are seeing the Trump plan right now’

unveiled?” elections for April 9) other, I was getting a lot of hang- DB: “What plan? The reason I ask TAW: “How do you assess up calls, threatening calls, people ‘what plan’ is they’ve been dangling Mahmoud Abbas, who’s known saying ‘Don’t show up in Ramallah, Sharmila Devi this in front of us for literally a year. as Abu Mazen, president of the if you do, you’re going to face All they keep saying is somehow Palestinian Authority?” consequences.’ They always resort they’re going to be hard on the DB: “Today we’re in a situation in to saying things about women. London Israelis and that’s going to bring which the PA is incapable of taking “I was never physically harmed. about peace if the parties want it. on Israel in the sense that it views For me, that’s the end of it. For iana Buttu, a Meanwhile, we’ve seen one of the Israel’s actions as a done deal and others who aren’t foreign-born like Canadian-Pales- highest rates of settlement growth so instead it goes after Palestinians. I am, who don’t have that kind of tinian lawyer, was in history and the reason is that We’ve seen people being arrested perceived protection and backing, legal adviser to the Trump has given [Israeli Prime for Facebook posts for critiquing for them the situation is definitely Palestine Liberation Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu the the president and, all the while, the worse.” Organisation (PLO) green light to do whatever he wants. bigger crackdown is sadly on the TAW: “Could there be another from 2000-05. She “It’s been a year of them telling people of Gaza. I can’t believe we Palestinian intifada?” Dstudied at Stanford and taught at us that the Israelis are going to pay as Palestinians can’t go out on the DB: “We need to be more clever Harvard, is very critical of both a price but it’s been a year in which streets to protest sanctions imposed when it comes to any mass protests An eye on challenges. Israel and the Palestinian Author- the Israelis have totally benefited. on [Hamas-ruled] Gaza by Abu because the Israelis have us under Canadian-Palestinian lawyer ity (PA) and her political analysis is The only party to pay a price are Mazen. lockdown. It’s a remote-control Diana Buttu. (Facebook) widely quoted. the Palestinians. The next thing “We’re in a place where we’ve got occupation; the occupation Buttu (DB) spoke with The Arab they’ll say is: ‘Well, there’s Israeli an unrepresentative government. has almost become robotic. At me the most about Gaza is just Weekly (TAW) in mid-December elections so we can’t unveil during We’ve got a visionless government checkpoints, there are one or two how much people have been via telephone from Ramallah about an election period.’ It’s pretty much and we’ve got a government that soldiers at most and all they’re dehumanised. I remember when political developments in the guaranteed that Netanyahu is going wants to bring half of its population doing is looking at computers. [New York Times columnist] region, which she called among to call elections within the next few to its knees because in 2006, 12 “In Gaza, there’s been 38 weeks of Thomas Friedman would say ‘why the most challenging to face the months. years ago, they voted for Hamas. protests. There’s been more people not just march and hold up signs’ Palestinians. “We are seeing the Trump Half of the population is under 18 injured in these 38 weeks than were and now he wants the signs to say In December 2017, US President plan right now. First, we had the and those people didn’t even vote injured in 2014 in the bombing we believe in a two-state solution Donald Trump unilaterally embassy move. Second, and I think for Hamas but he still wants to campaign and yet it hasn’t moved because somehow that will ricochet announced the US Embassy would this was very underreported, was punish them.” Israel one iota. The reason it hasn’t a bullet. move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. the fact that they closed the [US] TAW: “Have you been threatened moved Israel is because it’s been so “I’m always left with this eerie There has been the expansion Consulate [used by Palestinians]. by the PA?” surveilled and they only need a few thought. I ask: ‘Is this situation of Israeli settlements on land The consulate is now only a little DB: “They have come after me machine guns to gun people down. sustainable?’ I’m forced to claimed by Palestinians for a future subsection within the embassy, but they haven’t been successful. “In the West Bank, it’s the same recognise in many cases that the state. The Palestinian leadership which means that the way Israel Immediately after I wrote a piece scenario, any mass level of protest optimism of it not being sustainable remains divided. In the West Bank, views us, the way the Americans for the New York Times in May 2017 is going to have to overcome these is overcome by the reality that it is.” the PA has restricted freedom of view us is that we are just a simple calling for the shuttering of the PA strategic surveillance mechanisms expression. minority. We’re not a separate [and against the two-state solution], that are being used not just to Sharmila Devi is a former British TAW: “Do you have any hope nation. We’re not a separate entity.” there was a schizophrenic reaction. suppress protests but to prevent correspondent in the Middle East for the peace plan touted by the (Editor’s note: After this On the one hand, they pretended any protests from starting. and writes on political and social Trump administration but yet to be interview, Netanyahu called it had never been written. On the “The part that has disturbed issues in the region. 16 January 6, 2019 News & Analysis Turkey Advantages but also many risks for Turkey from US Syria withdrawal

Thomas Seibert backbone of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria. Turkey argues that the YPG, Istanbul the leading US partner in the fight against ISIS, is the Syria affiliate of he planned withdrawal of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), US forces from Syria is a seen as a terrorist group by both An- mixed blessing for neigh- kara and Washington. T bouring Turkey, giving An- Trump’s abrupt announcement kara more room to manoeuvre but in December to withdraw the 2,000 creating risks both abroad and at US soldiers from Syria exposes the home. YPG to a Turkish attack, potential- In the first known trip of its kind ly strengthening Erdogan’s role in since the start of the Syrian war al- Syria. Turkey says it wants to push most eight years ago, Turkish De- the YPG back from the border and fence Minister Hulusi Akar and sen- has been massing troops and weap- ior Turkish commanders visited a ons in preparation for an assault but mediaeval tomb near the northern Trump, faced with heavy criticism, Syrian village of Esme. Speaking has suggested that the withdrawal at the tomb of Suleyman Shah, the could be drawn out over months. grandfather of Osman I, the founder Magdalena Kirchner, a senior of the Ottoman Empire, Akar said analyst at Conias Risk Intelligence, the Turkish military had taken on said the slowdown of the US with- a new responsibility in fighting the drawal was in Turkey’s interest. Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria. A continued US presence in Syria Akar was referring to an agree- served Turkish security concerns in ment between Turkish President making sure that the fight against Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US ISIS would go on and in providing a President Donald Trump that gives counterbalance to Iran’s influence in Turkey a crucial role in efforts to the region, Kirchner said via e-mail. destroy the last major ISIS bastion The agreement with Washington Overreach. Turkey’s Defence Minister and former Chief of Staff Hulusi Akar (C) and top army commanders in Syria. Erdogan reportedly prom- has left Turkey’s alliance with Rus- visit Turkish troops stationed at the border with Syria in Kilis, December 31. (AP) ised Trump that Turkey would fin- sia and Iran in Syria intact. Moscow ish off the jihadists, who have been said a meeting of the three countries reduced to an area close to the Iraqi is scheduled for this month. are doubts, however, whether An- gistical support and air cover for any at a time of growing dissatisfaction border in Syria’s eastern Deir ez-Zor Trump’s decision provided a do- kara’s troops and their Syrian allies operation to finish off the Islamic among Turkish voters with the pres- province. mestic boost for Erdogan because can take on ISIS. State in the Middle Euphrates River ence of approximately 3.7 million many Turkish voters share his mis- Kirchner pointed out that while Valley” but Washington rejected the Syrian refugees in the country. trust towards US intentions in Syria Turkish troops fought ISIS in the request, he wrote. A video showing young Syrian Turkey’s new role in and want the PKK defeated. News border region before, they never In a another sign that tensions men celebrating the new year and Syria comes at a time of of the withdrawal was a “political faced the jihadists in Deir ez-Zor, between the United States and Tur- waving a Syrian opposition flag on growing dissatisfaction triumph over the US and the PKK/ 200km south of the Turkish border, key over Syria continue to simmer, Istanbul’s central Taksim Square among Turkish voters YPG” for the Erdogan government, where resistance was expected to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, went viral among Turkish Twitter with the presence of Kirchner wrote. be fierce. “US experts and former in an interview with the Newsmax users, many of whom complained approximately 3.7 The resignations of US Defence officials keep underlining that Tur- website, spoke of the “importance that Syrians were dancing on Turk- million Syrian refugees Secretary James Mattis and Wash- key’s Syrian allies are unable to fill of ensuring that the Turks don’t ish streets while Turkish soldiers in the country. ington’s envoy for the fight against the vacuum in the fight against ISIS slaughter the Kurds.” Trump’s na- were risking their lives trying to se- ISIS, Brett McGurk, are also among created by the loss of the SDF,” she tional security adviser John Bolton, cure parts of Syria. “We will implement this in the the consequences of Trump’s with- wrote. US Chief of Staff Marine General Jo- A poll released last year indicated coming days,” Akar said in remarks drawal order welcomed in Ankara. Citing unnamed US officials, seph Dunford and the administra- that two out of three Turkish re- interpreted by some Turkish media Turkey was especially incensed by Washington Post columnist David tion’s Syria envoy James Jeffrey are spondents said Syrian refugees take outlets as a hint that a new Turkish McGurk, who was considered very Ignatius wrote that Ankara vastly expected in Ankara January 8 for away their jobs, are responsible for intervention into Syria could occur close to the YPG. overstated the number of pro-Turk- talks with Turkish officials. a rise in crime and damage “moral soon. Senior US officials are expect- Erdogan’s deal with Washington ish fighters ready to attack ISIS. Stepping up the military cam- values” of the host country. “We do ed to visit Ankara in January. carries risks for Turkey as well. He Also, Turkey’s military capabili- paign against ISIS could trigger re- not want Syrians here,” Selin, a real For years, Erdogan criticised US said in December that Turkey would ties were so overstretched that the venge attacks by ISIS sleeper cells in estate agent near Taksim Square, support for the Kurdish militia Peo- “clean” Syria of “YPG/PKK elements country asked the United States “to Turkey itself, Kirchner added. said recently. “They should return ples’ Protection Units (YPG), the as well as of remnants of ISIS.” There provide overhead surveillance, lo- Turkey’s new role in Syria comes to their own country and fight.” Viewpoint Is the YPG really a threat to Turkey?

he Turkish military is set support of the civilians under its despite the obvious ideological Turkish soldiers, far outweighs any to embark on another rule. Often that support includes mismatch between the two. meaningful strategic advantage campaign in Syria but influential Arab tribes in the Turkey blames Gulen for a failed the operation would bring. The Stephen Starr what is the actual threat Jazeera region of Rojava. coup attempt in July 2016 and it destruction of the YPG and Kurdish posed to Turkey by the The Islamic State (ISIS), Jabhat claims the YPG serves as the Syrian governance structures would Tapparent target, the Kurdish Peo- al-Nusra, the pro-regime National wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ greatly damage progressive forces ple’s Protection Units (YPG)? Defence Forces and other groups Party (PKK). The PKK is classified in the region. It is these forces that The YPG’s stated aims include have all fallen by the wayside as a terrorist organisation by the Europe and the United States can developing a 100,000-strong because of their brutality. That’s a United States and European Union count on for support. military force in Rojava, a de facto path the Kurdish militias have not but denies any such activity. Despite the central role played autonomous region in northern pursued. Regardless, what unites most by the Kurds in defeating ISIS and Syria. That’s something any Kurdish forces in northern Turks is their fierce opposition the trust that the YPG has built government, whether in Ankara, Syria have proven an important to Kurdish autonomy. This with US military leaders during Damascus or Baghdad, should bulwark against the chaos created sentiment transcends the political the war against the extremist rightly be concerned about. No by ISIS and with the governments divide — ardent liberals, religious group, international powers entity other than the Syrian regime in Baghdad and Damascus failing conservatives and almost everyone are once again conspicuous by controls as much territory in Syria. to provide public services and in between. their absence. It’s obvious that YPG forces have been accused stability. Unquestionably, Syria, That’s exactly what Turkish Washington will choose Turkey by Amnesty International and Turkey, Europe and the wider President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over independent, progressive Human Rights Watch of forcefully world are safer from jihadist attacks has attempted to exploit with forces in Syria, even when doing displacing civilians from northern thanks to the Kurdish militias that military incursions into Kurdish- so works against the beginnings Syria. brought about the territorial defeat ruled Syria. By warring with the of a democratic transformation in It’s obvious that The Kurdish threat to Turkey, of ISIS in Raqqa in 2017. Kurds Erdogan seeks to appease Syria. however, largely evaporated However, maintaining Syria’s and secure the political support of The consequences of this Washington will after the 2016 terrorist attacks borders is one of the few topics Turkey’s powerful ultranationalist probably won’t be significant in choose Turkey over by separatists in Ankara and that unite the Syrian regime, politicians and their followers. The the short term but neglecting a Istanbul. Neither attack was linked its opposition and Ankara. This soon-to-be-announced operation movement that’s helped civic independent, to Kurdish movements in Syria. is why Kurdish aspirations for east of the Euphrates River development and security in a progressive forces in Homegrown Kurdish resistance autonomy have little support. becomes particularly timely, even region where such features are in Syria, even when was crushed by military operations Even fellow Kurds in neighbouring strategic, with Turks set to vote in short supply are likely to be far- in south-eastern Turkey in 2015 Iraqi Kurdistan broadly oppose the local elections in March. reaching. Despite the important doing so works and 2016 and, since then, it’s been efforts. The expected operation would efforts they’ve aided in recent against the largely dormant. Anyone who has spent time in probably see Kurdish civilians years, Syria’s Kurds may yet again In Syria, the YPG and its Turkey recently knows that Kurdish in northern Syria flee or rebel, be abandoned. beginnings of a political collaborators brought an nationalism in general and the YPG potentially causing a bloodbath democratic unprecedented level of stability in particular are regarded with deep in eastern Rojava, which is the Stephen Starr is the author of transformation in and security to the regions they distrust, even scorn. The Turkish most stable (if contested) region in “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to the control. The YPG survives and government has linked the YPG to Syria. The cost in lives to Kurdish Uprising” and has lived in Syria and Syria. prospers because it has the broad US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, fighters and civilians, as well as Turkey since 2007. January 6, 2019 17 Debate Iran Malodour of decay? Islamic Republic at 40

Ali Alfoneh

ehran city officials had emergency meetings January 2 after thou- sands of Iranians took to social media to com- plain about a “smelly,” T“sulphur-like” and “fishy” odour in the capital. Reports of a myste- rious odour in Tehran are hardly news; the World Bank said air quality in Tehran places it among the world’s most polluted cities. But social media commentary of- fers an interesting political twist: “This smell has been here for 40 years; it’s only just been detect- ed,” a blogger noted referencing the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Remarkably, it is not just blog- gers critical of the regime who ad- vance this idea. Those who might be described as the very pillars of support of the Islamic Republic seem to agree. Meanwhile, the public is openly raising issues gen- erally regarded as taboo. One of those pillars of support of the Islamic Republic is Seyyed Hassan Khomeini. A grandson of the founder of the republic, Hanging by a thread. A cleric holds a poster showing a portrait of the late founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khomeini recently elaborated on Ruhollah Khomeini in Tehran. (AP) the “consolidation and collapse” of regimes. “One of the fundamental precon- him know.’ I raised the issue at 1980s, which is also known as In an address December 31, the ditions of having hope is that the the Supreme National Security “The Sacred Defence.” 40th anniversary of the revolu- people are capable of changing Council (SNSC)… I have found There was a time when “The tion, Khomeini warned: “There is [the society]. It is a futile effort evidence that he did not die of Sacred Defence” could not be no guarantee that we [the Islamic to prevent and oppose change, natural causes.” questioned but now Iranian Twit- Republic] should survive while which for whatever reasons de- In a separate interview, Yasser ter users in the thousands are other regimes meet their demise.” sired by the society, and may not Hashemi, son of the late ayatollah, demanding answers from Major- He added: “Atomisation of society, be to my liking…” said the SNSC had “reopened the General Mohsen Rezaei, former spreading hatred, hypocrisy, forc- Reading between the lines, investigation” into his father’s chief commander of the Islamic ing the people to have two faces Khomeini was clearly warning of death. Other members of the Raf- Revolutionary Guard Corps about [one in private and another in the the danger of bereaving the public sanjani family made similar claims his questionable decisions dur- public] and every one of us not of hope for peaceful reform. before, complaining that authori- ing the war. Rezaei has written a being truthful, are all signs of the Another pillar of support of the ties prevented an autopsy and revisionist account of Operation ill fortunes of regimes.” Islamic Republic is the family of shown considerable haste about Karbala-4 in December 1986, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsan- burying the ayatollah’s body. which cost the lives of thousands grandson stressed the importance jani, who died in January 2017 in The family, once a pillar of of Iranian soldiers. of providing people with hope for mysterious circumstances. As the support of the Islamic Republic, Perhaps those Twitter users are peaceful regime change. He said: Western world celebrated the start seems to be increasingly turning emboldened by regime elites, who of 2019, Fatemeh Hashemi spoke its back on the regime with allega- appear to be turning their back about her father’s death. tions of foul play in the patriarch’s on the Islamic Republic. And they Ordinary Iranians are raising In a January 1 interview with death. may also have smelled the malo- taboo issues, including the ROKNA, she said: “In November It is not only the elites of the dour of a decaying regime. war with Iraq in the 1980s, 2016, two gentlemen who claimed Islamic Republic who are criticis- to be war veterans came to my ing the Islamic Republic. Ordinary Ali Alfoneh is a visiting scholar at which is also known as “The office and said ‘They want to Iranians are raising taboo issues, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Sacred Defence.” assassinate your father. You let including the war with Iraq in the Washington. Iran now takes on its academics

to instil fear and therefore gain IRNA said Hosseini-Chavoshi book prize and being recognised obedience among the people. and Abbasi-Shavazi, who had for their work, now, because their Even if it meant killing complete previously conducted research findings did not align with those Claude Salhani innocents, it increased the on population growth and fertil- of the government, they find people’s fear of the authority. ity in Iran, were charged with themselves accused of “espio- When the Bolsheviks did away “espionage” and intrusion “in nage” and intrusion “in the area with the death penalty shortly the area of population control.” of population control.” Almost after the overthrow of the tsar, Iranian media reported that overnight they go from being tempora! O mores! it was Trotsky who convinced the scientists were allegedly acclaimed scientists to being con- Those familiar with his fellow politburo members producing false statistics about sidered enemies of the state. Latin will recognise to bring back the death penalty. the rate of fertility in Iran in an Iranian media reported that the those words attrib- It was a clever if somewhat attempt to obscure its “popula- scientists were allegedly produc- uted to Cicero. It diabolical scheme to allow him tion crisis.” ing false statistics about the rate translates as “Oh, to get rid of political opponents Population control has become of fertility in Iran in an attempt to Owhat times! Oh, what customs!” permanently. a sensitive issue in Iran since obscure its “population crisis.” Or if you prefer a more modern That is not at all different Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Now the state is encouraging adaptation, though somewhat from the modus operandi of the Khamenei called for population people to have as many children less poetic, you could say, “What regime in Iran. This time the increase in a speech in 2012, as possible. the f…?” An appropriate exclama- Iranians are targeting academics, deeming Iran’s decades-long, The plain truth is that some tion for some of the mayhem that accusing them of espionage. A state-sponsored birth control people are reluctant to bring chil- is going on in Iran. very serious crime in Iran, spy- policy a “mistake.” Under his dren into this world when their Iran’s Islamic Revolution is ing for a foreign power carries leadership, the state is encour- future is so uncertain amid rising struggling amid growing insecuri- the death penalty. aging Iranians to have as many unemployment, economic and ties and failures. People are get- What’s at stake here? Popula- children as possible in a bid to travel sanctions imposed by the ting restless. To cover up its blun- tion control. increase the country’s popula- Western powers as punishment ders and shortcomings, Tehran’s Some weeks ago, Iranian tion from about 81 million to 150 for Tehran’s continued quest ruling imams borrowed a page security forces arrested Iranian- million-200 million in the near to obtain nuclear technology from Leon Trotsky’s handbook on Australian academic Meimanat future. that would allow it to develop how to keep an entire population Hosseini-Chavoshi, a widely Abbasi-Shavazi and Hosseini- military-grade uranium. in tow, obedient and subservient. respected population researcher Chavoshi’s book, “The Fertility Iran wants to have both its (yel- Trotsky favoured executions at the University of Melbourne, Transition in Iran: Revolution low) cake and eat it but as some at the airport as she was leaving and Reproduction,” on the coun- officers of the Red Army falsely Iran. Her colleague, Mohammad try’s demographic challenges accused by Trotsky of counter- Population control has become a Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, professor the government’s position. It revolutionary acts simply be- of demography at the University won the International Book of cause they disagreed with him sensitive issue in Iran since of Tehran and director of Iran’s the Year award offered by the stated: “The revolution devours Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali National Institute of Population Iranian Ministry of Culture and its own children.” Research, was also detained for Islamic Guidance in 2010. Khamenei called for population questioning. Oh, but what a difference a Claude Salhani is a regular increase in a speech in 2012. Iran’s state news agency few years make. From winning a columnist for The Arab Weekly. 18 January 6, 2019 2018-2019 in Transition East West Migration-related issues among tough challenges to face EU

Mahmud el-Shafey predicting the rise of nontraditional Politics and populist parties. of fury. Anti-migration and anti-EU par- Supporters London ties are polling strongly, with far- of the far- right parties such as Italy’s League, right party 019 is set to be a crucial year Germany’s Alternative for German Alternative for the European Union, with and France’s National Rally expect- for Germany European parliamentary ed to make significant gains. shout slogans 2 elections taking place in May “The number of disillusioned in Torgau, against the backdrop of rising pop- voters has increased, with many Germany. ulism stoked by widespread migra- people frustrated about the power- (Reuters) tion fears. lessness of national governments in Participation in European par- a globalised world,” warned Stefan liamentary elections — the biggest Lehne, a visiting scholar at the Car- electoral contest in Europe — has negie Endowment for International been declining since the first vote in Peace. “A much larger number of 1979. In most European countries, voters are putting their faith in anti- European parliament elections are establishment parties that promise viewed as a sideshow. Turnout at change.” the previous election averaged 42% Writing for Carnegie’s Reshaping and was as low as 25% in Hungary European Democracy Project, Leh- and 18% in the Czech Republic. ne said there had been a similar and Turnout is not expected to be counter-balancing force in pro-EU significantly higher in May, even politics, pointing to French Presi- though the vote will see the elec- dent Emmanuel Macron’s electoral tion of a parliament tasked with ad- victory in France as part of an un- dressing issues crucial to the future expected “third-way” politics and of the European Union, not least the Green party’s strong position in reforming migration and asylum Bavarian elections in October. have helped more than 34,000 peo- said. “This will help step up the Frans Timmermans said in a release systems. “The dominant dividing line of ple to voluntarily return to their fight against migrant smuggling and last month. the new parliament could become homes with reintegration assistance trafficking of human beings, includ- While Timmermans has called on In addition to seeking a contest between politicians who and we evacuated more than 2,000 ing through reinforced integrated the European Union to push ahead want to find common EU-level so- refugees from Libya for further border management.” with this reform before the next closer cooperation with lutions to current challenges and resettlement,” EU Foreign Affairs In addition to seeking closer co- elections, few say this is possible regional countries over those who favour safeguarding and chief Federica Mogherini said in a operation with regional countries with the task almost certainly going migrant smuggling, the reaffirming national sovereignty. European Commission release last over migrant smuggling, the next to be left for the next European par- next EU parliament will The parliament could turn into a month. “We will continue to work EU parliament will have to reform liament to deal with. have to reform its asylum major battleground between com- to protect stranded migrants, to put its asylum system known as the Whether a likely more divided system. peting visions for the future of Eu- an end to the system of detention in Dublin Regulation. The system ne- European parliament will reach rope,” Lehne added. Libya together with the United Na- cessitates asylum seekers apply for agreement on the issue remains to The results of the European par- The European Union will look tions and the African Union.” asylum in the first EU country they be seen. liament elections will have a say in to continue discussions with Arab Following the announcement of enter, something that so-called “The EU as an institution needs determining the division of senior countries, particularly in North Af- the UN migration pact in December, front-line countries — Italy, Spain reform,” Polish Prime Minister Ma- EU posts, with the presidencies rica, to resolve the migrant crisis. the European Union said it would and Greece — say places an unfair teusz Morawiecki told the Financial of the powerful European Com- While a move to set-up “regional provide additional support for Mo- burden on them. Times. “When I speak to prime min- mission and European Council to disembarkation centres” in the rocco to address irregular migra- “After four years, it is now es- isters from other countries, most of change hands in 2019. region for migrants and refugees tion. sential to consolidate this compre- them agree that a serious revamp Forecasting the results of the May seeking entry into Europe has been “The additional funding adopt- hensive approach [to migration of procedures and institutions is elections is almost impossible, al- roundly rejected, greater coopera- ed under the EU emergency Trust management] by switching from needed but everyone is waiting for though it seems certain that the tion between the European Union Fund for Africa will bring the over- reactive ad hoc responses to com- the European elections.” dominance enjoyed by rival centre- and Arab governments could help all migration-related assistance to pleting the reform for a sustainable left and centre-right “grand coali- deal with unwanted migration. Morocco to [$170 million] in 2018,” future-proof migration and asylum Mahmud el-Shafey is an Arab tions” will be broken, with most “Through our partnerships, we a European Commission statement system,” EU First Vice-President Weekly correspondent in London. Viewpoint Why Merkel took a massive bet on migrants as force for growth longer limited to highly skilled Rashmee Roshan Lall ear-end holiday festivi- shares of immigrants coming and Austria. ties practically obscured from regions that have recently Why did Merkel’s cabinet professions, such as computer something quite remark- been described as ‘problematic’ in approve the new laws? science and engineering, but goes able in Germany just be- the media and the share of non- It is a massive bet on economic much broader and deeper. Official fore Christmas. German Christian immigrants.” growth, an aspirational anthem data state there are at least 1.2 YChancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet With misperception and for Germany’s future. With falling million vacant positions across the agreed to new immigration laws to misinformation rife, Germany’s birth rates and unemployment German economy and the IW said put before parliament. proposed new laws look like at a record low, Germany faces even the most positive adjustment On a continent whose politics political suicide for the parties an acute shortage of workers to of numbers leaves approximately is poisoned by fear of non-white, in government. Elections are take on jobs that don’t require 440,000 jobs that can’t be filled by Muslim immigration, the German due in September or October university degrees but a certain workers in Germany. cabinet relaxed the rules for in Brandenburg, Saxony and level of skill. Germany needs Accordingly, Merkel’s jobseekers from beyond the Thuringia in eastern Germany. people to drive fire trucks, cook, government is dispensing with European Union and offered a The hard-right Alternative for work in hospitals, the care sector rules that require German second chance at settlement to Germany (AfD) party, which took and as plumbers, electricians and companies to prove there are no failed asylum seekers. 12.5%, 9.7% and 10.6% of the vote, carpenters. domestic or EU workers before This means that non-European respectively, in the latest regional Detlef Scheele, chairman of the they can fill a vacancy. The official workers with relatively low-tech elections in the three states, can be Federal Employment Agency, said list of short-supply professions skills — a cook from Morocco, for relied upon to portray the newly the German economy continues will also be a thing of the past. instance — could enter Germany relaxed foreign workers’ rules as to expand even as it looks to its German business is cheering. for six months to try to find a job, a base surrender to the advancing biggest threat — the lack of skilled All of this does seem to make provided they support themselves hordes. The strident rhetoric may workers. economic sense but what of the financially and are reasonably work to the AfD’s advantage. Alexander Burstedde, a political optics? The government fluent in the German language. Why would it not? It has proven labour economist at the German has repeatedly stressed the new Asylum seekers with an 18-month a powerful vote-winner across Economic Institute (IW), said laws won’t provide an incentive record of employment in Germany Europe — in Italy, Hungary, Poland the shortage of workers is no for more refugees or unskilled with some knowledge of the migrants to enter Germany but the German language and with the AfD is accusing it of “fuelling, not means to pay their way could controlling, immigration.” apply for a 30-month work permit For Merkel, negotiating the and possible permanent residency. political twilight as an outgoing This is the New Deal, German- chancellor, electoral politics may style. In political terms, it seems not matter much but surely it does counter-intuitive. Germany is split for her Christian Democrats and over the merits of Merkel’s 2015 their allies in government, the decision to open the borders to Social Democrats. 1 million refugees, mostly from The calculation involves a big Syria. gamble. On fully staffed small and A large-scale survey last year medium-sized German businesses On a continent whose of the United States and five reporting higher turnover and politics is poisoned by European countries by Harvard profits. On the economic benefits economics Professor Stefanie of being able to attract and put fear of non-white, Stantcheva and her colleagues to work suitably qualified people Muslim immigration, Alberto Alesina and Armando from anywhere, including the Arab the German cabinet Miano, indicated that Germans, world and Africa. just like the French, Italians, Germany’s governing parties relaxed the rules for British, Swedish and Americans, must hope the economic benefits jobseekers from displayed “striking misperceptions of migration will be fact before about immigrants.” Germans, just A bet with merits. German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) receives the federal elections in 2021. In beyond the European like natives of the other surveyed flowers from a Lebanese refugee as Migration Commissioner the meantime, it could all get very Union. countries, “overestimated the Annette Widmann-Mauz (R) looks on, last June. (Reuters) ugly, very fast. January 6, 2019 19 News & Analysis East West First US Muslim congresswomen take office

Thomas Frank rhetoric since Trump took office two years ago and sought imme- diately to bar citizens of five Mus- Washington lim-majority countries, including Somalia, from entering the United he US Congress welcomed States. its first two Muslim women “I thank my colleagues for wel- members on January 4, al- coming me and I look forward to T though the day turned con- the day we lift the Muslim ban troversial when one of the women separating families all over the US was captured on video vowing to from their loved ones,” Omar wrote help remove US President Donald on Twitter. Trump from office and referring to him with a vulgarity. Rashida Tlaib, who was born Rashida Tlaib, a in the United States to Palestin- Democrat from ian parents, and Somali-born Ilhan Michigan, took the oath Omar, who moved to the United of office on a copy of the States in 1995 as a refugee, are the Quran wearing a first Muslim women to serve in the traditional Palestinian US House of Representatives in its dress. 230-year history. Tlaib, a Democrat from Michi- Omar, 37, moved to the United gan, took the oath of office on a States as a teenager with her family copy of the Quran wearing a tradi- after they fled Somalia and spent tional Palestinian dress. four years in a Kenyan refugee Omar, a Democrat from Minneso- camp. ta, wore a headscarf to the inaugu- Tlaib, 42, posted a photograph on ration ceremony one day after Con- Twitter of her being inaugurated gress reversed a 181-year-old policy with the caption: “This really hap- that supposedly banned elected pened. I am US Congresswoman. officials from wearing headgear in Not bad for a girl from south-west Getting attention. US House Representative member Rashida Tlaib (3rd R) participates in a the US Capitol. Detroit who didn’t speak English, ceremonial swearing-in with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (4th R), January 4. (AFP) The inauguration of Omar and daughter of Palestinian immi- Tlaib was hailed across the United grants.” Tlaib’s district in Detroit States as an indication that Mus- has a large Arab population. they are more interested in ousting wouldn’t establish language stand- Omar and Tlaib could receive an lims are embraced in a country that The euphoria of the day soured Trump than in running the coun- ards for my colleagues.” unusual amount of attention and has seen increasing anti-Muslim at an inauguration party where try. The election last November put Republicans pounced on Tlaib’s scrutiny for new members of the Tlaib, during a rousing speech, the Democratic Party in control of comment as an indication that House. said: “We’re going to impeach the House for the first time in eight Democrats are interested only in Along with other progressives in US congresswoman the [expletive]” in a reference to years. trying to oust Trump. “How do you Congress, Tlaib and Omar seem to Rashida Tlaib Trump. The remark was captured Democratic leaders, including work with anybody if this is what crave media attention to challenge on a cell phone video and quickly House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have they really have planned?” asked the Washington status quo but the went viral. urged party members to avoid ap- Kevin McCarthy, the Republican House of Representatives is tightly “This really happened. I am US Trump said Tlaib’s remarks were pearing too antagonistic towards House leader. controlled by party leaders who Congresswoman. Not bad for “disgraceful” and “highly disre- Trump, a Republican whom many Tlaib was defiant, writing on determine what issues are debated a girl from south-west Detroit spectful to the United States of Democrats greatly dislike. Pelosi Twitter: “I will always speak truth and voted on, leaving junior mem- who didn’t speak English, America.” shrugged off Tlaib’s remark, say- to power.” She found support on bers with little influence. daughter of Palestinian Many fellow Democrats winced ing: “I’m not in the censorship Twitter where #ImpeachTheMF immigrants.” at Tlaib’s comment, which they business. I don’t like that language. was a trending item January 4. Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly fear will feed a perception that I wouldn’t use that language but I Because of their backgrounds, correspondent in Washington. Viewpoint Using Iraq as a base to strike ISIS in Syria is unlikely to work

uch of the atten- guiding the air war against ISIS. He would be in greater danger from law and order and commerce tion on US President described it as a “very well-oiled a resurgent ISIS, which would under ISIS rule. Gregory Donald Trump’s an- process.” complicate counterterrorism If the rebuilding of Raqqa and Aftandilian nouncement that he Although the United States could operations in Syria. ISIS has plenty other damaged towns gets put off, would pull US troops continue the air campaign against of money, with estimates as high ISIS could rebound. The decision Mout of Syria focused on the precipi- ISIS in Syria through intelligence as $400 million hidden in both by the Trump administration to tous way it was made — by tweet, gathered from drones, surveillance countries, to purchase weapons in suspend the $200 million fund for without consulting the Pentagon aircraft and satellite imagery, those Syria. Syrian stabilisation does not help. — the fate of the Syrian Kurdish tools are not as optimal as having Third, striking ISIS in Syria from Fourth, the use of Iraq for the allies and the likely enhanced role boots on the ground. the air or with US special forces US military has become a lightning of Russia and Iran. Second, because of the fluid based in Iraq is unlikely to end the rod, particularly after Trump’s Much less attention has been on nature of the Syrian crisis, ISIS ISIS menace. While such strikes surprise trip in late December to Trump’s addendum to his message militants in Syria could be a source damage ISIS, they cannot destroy visit US troops in northern Iraq. that he would use US forces in of weaponry for fellow militants the group’s ideology, which feeds Trump was supposed to meet with Iraq to strike Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq. Michael Knights, an Iraq on resentment by segments of the Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul- remnants in Syria should the need expert at the Washington Institute population in eastern Syria. Mahdi in Baghdad during the trip arise. for Near East Policy, told the Much of Raqqa, once the capital but it was cancelled for logistical The latter proposition is seen in Washington Post that “Syria is the of the Islamic State’s so-called reasons. That Trump did not some circles as reassuring Trump’s place to get rockets and explosives, caliphate, is in ruins from the meet with Abdul-Mahdi except by own Republican Party critics things you can’t get in Iraq. If we anti-ISIS campaign and, without video conference and only visited that the United States would not leave the job unfinished in Syria, reconstruction funds, resentment US troops offended many Iraqi abandon the region. However, this you could see this start to happen from inhabitants is likely to grow. politicians. strategy is unlikely to work for the again.” Although most residents chafed One Iraqi legislator said: following reasons: This could mean that US forces under ISIS’s draconian rule, some “Trump should know that Iraq First is the nature of the ISIS in Iraq and their Iraqi allies have said that there were at least is not an American state” and threat. Even though ISIS controls went on to demand that “all US only a small pocket of territory troops leave Iraq” as the “Iraqi in Syria, an estimated 20,000- government should consider them 30,000 ISIS militants remain in as occupiers.” Syria and Iraq and have gone Although many Iraqis know US underground. These militants troops played an important role in have staged assassinations in Iraq retraining the Iraqi military and and Syria. Once US troops leave helping it win back territory that Syria, ISIS is likely to regroup had been taken by ISIS in 2014, and carry out more attacks even the idea of a long-term US military without regaining territory it once presence in the country, even if occupied. confined to certain bases, runs up Thwarting this threat requires against the strong sense of Iraqi Although the US could counterterrorism operations nationalism, something the British continue its air but they are difficult to conduct unhappily encountered in Iraq in without personnel on the ground. the 1940s and 1950s. campaign against ISIS Nor would air strikes do the job Relying on US forces in Iraq for through intelligence unless the United States had military operations in Syria is likely very specific information on the to be a problematic proposition. gathered from drones whereabouts of militants. and satellite imagery, A retired US military official Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in those tools are not as said in December that one of the the Pardee School of Global Studies advantages of US troops in eastern Lightning rod. US President Donald Trump (2nd R) greets a US at Boston University and a former optimal as having Syria working with local forces was serviceman during a stopover at the Ramstein Air Force Base US State Department Middle East boots on the ground. that they played a crucial role in after his Iraq visit, December 26. (dpa) analyst. 20 January 6, 2019 2018-2019 in Transition Economy

Sluggish performance marked Briefs Saudi Aramco buys 50% of Moroccan economy last year rubber joint

Saad Guerraoui venture Saudi Aramco has completed its acquisition of a 50% stake in Casablanca Arlanxeo, its Netherlands-based joint venture with chemicals firm orocco’s sluggish eco- Lanxess, to become the full owner nomic performance in of the company, it said in a state- 2018 was marked by ment. M several factors that ham- Lanxess’s share in the synthetic pered growth, putting pressure on rubber and elastomer products the Islamist-led government to do venture was valued at $1.7 billion, better in 2019. Aramco said. Arlanxeo will main- A movement calling for the boy- tain its headquarters in Maastricht. cott of leading consumer brands — Afriquia petrol stations, Sidi (Reuters) Ali mineral water and Centrale Danone’s milk — to denounce the soaring cost of living took its toll on Dubai 2019 Moroccan economy. The feeling of social inequality budget halts among Moroccans was backed by figures released by the government. spending growth The National Survey of Household Consumption and Expenditure said Dubai expects to almost halt the large disparities between layers of growth of state spending this year society persist. Worrisome prospects. A Moroccan woman counts change at a vegetable market in Casablanca. (Reuters) as revenues expand more slowly The top 10% of the richest spend because of the emirate’s efforts to about 12 times more than 10% of the with a low technology and export Foreign direct investment (FDI) The unemployment rate fell slightly stimulate business investment, the poorest while the standard of living capacity offer, little job creation and rose 36.75% from January-Novem- to 10% in the third quarter of 2018 2019 state budget indicates. of 5% of the richest is 20 times that little contribution to the reduction ber last year, a note released by the against 10.6% a year earlier. State spending will total $15.5 of 5% of the most disadvantaged, of social and territorial inequali- Foreign Exchange Office said. Mo- Moroccan Prime Minister Saad billion, the plan showed. That the survey stated. ties,” said Alami rocco lured $3.35 billion in invest- Eddine El Othmani said in Novem- would be only a marginal increase King Mohammed VI’s dismissal of Morocco’s economic growth ments in the first 11 months of 2018, ber that indicators showed that Mo- from last year’s original budget Minister of Economy and Finance slowed in the third quarter of 2018 up from $2.4 billion in the same pe- rocco was experiencing economic plan of $15.4 billion, which was a Mohamed Boussaid last August to 3% of GDP from 3.9% in the same riod a year earlier. gains. “Those who claim that we are 19.5% rise from 2017. came after he received economic re- period a year earlier, the High Com- The increased FDI flows helped in crisis, that investment is declin- State revenues are projected to ports detailing Morocco’s slow pace mission for Planning (HCP) said. offset Morocco’s worsening trade ing… are circulating unfounded ru- reach $13.9 billion this year, up of reform. Growth has been driven by do- deficit, which increased 7.7% during mours,” Othmani told the House of 1.2% from last year’s budget plan, The king in November criticised mestic demand in the context of a the same period. The widening defi- Representatives. which included a 12% jump in rev- Minister of Industry and Trade well-controlled rise in inflation and cit was due to a larger increase of He stressed that the ranking of enues. The 2019 budget projects a Moulay Hafid Elalamy during a a sharp increase in the financing imports ($45.8 billion) over exports Morocco by Doing Business in the deficit of $1.6 billion, down from work session for serving personal needs of the national economy, said ($26.2 billion) although the rate of 60th place was recognition of the the projected 2018 deficit of $1.7 interests rather than those of the HCP. export growth (up 9.7%) was higher “good health” of the Moroccan billion. country. King Mohammed VI lashed HCP predicted that economic than that of imports (up 8.8%). economy. out at Elalamy for failing to advance growth would be 3% in 2018 against Other main factors behind the Morocco moved up nine places (Reuters) the Industrial Acceleration Plan in 4.1% a year earlier. The agricultural worsening deficit are declining in the Doing Business 2019, the lat- the Souss-Massa region nearly a sector posted a marked slowdown, tourism revenues, which dropped est World Bank annual ratings indi- year after it was inaugurated. from 13.4% growth in the third 1.8% to $5.2 billion and remittances cated. Plunge in oil Ahmed Lahlimi Alami, high com- quarter of 2017 to 4.1% in the same from Moroccan expatriates, which 2019 will be challenging for the missioner for planning, called for period in 2018. Household con- declined 1.7% to $6.2 billion. Islamist-led government, which prices threatens acceleration and adaptation of sumption, which is the main driver Unemployment is also bearing is expected to try to accelerate structural reforms. of the country’s economy, is on a the brunt of lower economic growth the pace of economic and so- Iraq’s postwar “Economic growth remains rath- downward trend, continuing to ex- with just 122,000 jobs created from cial reforms called for by King er weak, still subject to rainfall risks acerbate deficits. September 2017 to September 2018. Mohammed VI. recovery Viewpoint The plunge in oil prices dealt a heavy blow to Iraq’s stagnating economy, threatening the gov- ernment’s ability to rebuild and Rohani walks an economic tightrope provide basic services. Brent crude oil briefly rose to ity about billions of dollars of cash it has been exporting [before 2018 Isfahani said he expects the lure more than $85 a barrel in October handouts and energy subsidies. sanctions].” of globalisation to influence policy but has since plummeted to less The handouts date to the tenure Wary of losing public support, and Rohani to keep Iran within the than $55, a nightmare scenario Gareth Smyth of the presidency of Mahmoud Rohani hasn’t raised petrol prices 2015 nuclear deal. He may also win for Iraq, which derives 95% of its Ahmadinejad, who tried to wean although he made cash handouts Iranian adherence to Financial Ac- revenue from oil exports. Iranians off subsidies on everyday less accessible. “He thought cheap tion Task Force regulations against A $111.9 billion draft budget sent ast year was a pivotal items, including petrol. Handouts energy would please the middle money laundering. Accession pro- to parliament in October projects one for Iranian President originally targeted poorer Iranians class,” said Salehi-Isfahani. “He posals have been questioned by the crude exports of 3.8 million barrels Hassan Rohani. While but expanded. Under Rohani, petrol bought the argument used by the watchdog Guardian Council. per day to be sold at $56 per barrel. he resisted political at- remains cheap but access to hand- other side [the principlists] that “Ahmadinejad first proposed The bill, which includes a 23% tacks from the principlist outs has been restricted. giving money to people who aren’t these changes to make Iranian increase in spending, would leave camp, Rohani’s govern- “None of the three bodies re- poor is criminal whereas giving banking compatible with the global a deficit of $22.8 billion. Lment suspended liberal economic sponsible — Komiteh Emdad Emam them cheap energy is acceptable.” system and eventually there’ll be reforms. This was a response to Khomeini, the public charity; the Unemployment figures are also enough bargaining inside Iran to (The Associated Press) tightening US sanctions after US Welfare Ministry; the Organisation hard to access, said Salehi-Isfahani, pass them. It’s one of the signals President Donald Trump abandoned for Targeted Subsidies — publishes but there is a clear overall effect they are sending to the Europeans the 2015 nuclear agreement. data on how many people they from “shrinking access to the world that Iran can function as a country Oman to boost In consequence, Rohani finds support and how much they pay banking system” and from would- and is not so divided that you can’t himself in an “odd position,” Djavad them,” said Salehi-Isfahani. “The be investors’ reaction to govern- deal with it,” Salehi-Isfahani said. spending Salehi-Isfahani, an economics pro- Ahmadinejad system was transpar- ment policy shifting from market He also said he believes relations fessor at Virginia Tech and visiting ent. People knew who got what. reforms to with Europe will probably keep Iran modestly in fellow at the Brookings Institution, Now the number of applicants has greater state direction. in the nuclear deal until at least the wrote in a Brookings paper released increased 50%, not because the “The economy is shrinking,” he 2020 US presidential election, de- 2019 budget in December. He is “overseeing price numbers of the poor are rising but said, pointing to predictions that spite the limited gains now offered. controls, punishing commodity because people are afraid of missing the country’s GDP would contract “Globalisation is about trading Oman’s government expects to hoarders and subsidising imports of out when their neighbour is receiv- 3-7% this year. “The government with the West, not with Russia and increase spending modestly this a variety of goods, including mobile ing something.” puts unemployment at 12.5%. Prob- China,” he said. year under its 2019 state budget, phones. At 29 cents a litre, Iran has the ably it will go to 13-14% in 2019. The “Many people in Iran think this an official statement said. Salehi-Isfahani added that Rohani world’s third cheapest petrol after unemployed are mostly young,” [Europe’s support for the nu- Spending is projected at 12.9 had “lost the most liberal members Venezuela and Sudan, statistics by Salehi-Isfahani said. clear agreement] is just food and billion rials ($33.5 billion), up from of his economic team [notably Ma- globalpetrolprices.com (not allow- This, however, isn’t the biggest medicine but this will matter in two $32.4 billion in the original budget soud Nili, economics adviser].” ing for purchasing power) indicate. problem Iran faces in 2019. years [if Trump loses, US sanctions for 2018. Revenues are estimated Rohani has thereby abandoned It is 43 cents in Egypt, 51 cents in “Unemployment is like the ease and Iran’s economy opens up]. at $26.2 billion, assuming an aver- pledges of two presidential elec- Qatar, 54 cents in Saudi Arabia and proverbial frog in a slowly boiling Anyone who looks at Iran with a age oil price of $58 per barrel this tions — 2013 and 2017 — that he 75 cents in Afghanistan. pot of water, whereas inflation is broad perspective sees the country year. would improve living standards by Salehi-Isfahani argues this makes like pouring boiling water on the as a viable partner. It’s a matter of That would leave a 2019 budget boosting international trade, foreign no fiscal sense, especially with frog,” said Salehi-Isfahani. “Rising time. The middle class, young peo- deficit of $7.3 billion. In the first direct investment and Iran’s private Iran’s oil exports halved in 2018 by unemployment means your son is ple, are looking to join in. They’re ten months of 2018, the govern- sector. Salehi-Isfahani spoke of US sanctions. “The government without work for three years rather banging at the door.” ment ran a deficit of $5.3 billion, Rohani’s shelved plans for greater is giving away its main source of than two. If rice or wheat doubles data from the statistics agency transparency and unified exchange revenue,” he said. “Iran sells twice [in price], this hits everyone. The Gareth Smyth is a regular indicate. rates. as much energy to its own citizens adjustment has to be immediate.” contributor to The Arab Weekly. Salehi-Isfahani expressed profes- — about 5 million barrels a day of oil Even with unemployment and He has reported from the Middle (Reuters) sional frustration at the lack of clar- equivalent, that’s gas and oil — as inflation rising in 2019, Salehi- East since 1992. January 6, 2019 21 Economy

Saudi Arabia’s state budget for 2019 to be largest ever

Jareer Elass penditures in 2020 to nearly $305 billion and in 2021 to $312 billion. The Saudi Finance Ministry stat- Washington ed that the government reduced its estimated 2018 deficit 31% to $36 or a second fiscal year run- billion, which was attributable to ning, Saudi Arabia is ramp- a partial recovery in crude prices. ing up state spending to In its 2018 budget, the Saudi F jump-start a sluggish econ- government forecast a deficit of omy that has been roiled by plung- $52 billion, based on state revenue ing oil prices as Riyadh faces high of $209 billion and expenditures of Saudi unemployment and an exo- $261 billion. However, the leader- dus of expatriate workers. ship indicated that another $30 The government of Saudi King billion of spending in 2018 would Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is come out of the kingdom’s sover- also continuing its expensive pub- eign wealth fund and national de- lic assistance programme, put in velopment fund. place early last year to soften the The ministry said that, following effects of subsidy cuts and new a 0.9% of GDP contraction in 2017, taxes imposed on Saudi citizens the kingdom’s economy grew 2.3% over the past two years. in 2018 with 2.6% growth project- In a brief televised speech to his ed in 2019. cabinet December 18, King Salman The trick, as always, for Riyadh, announced the 2019 state budget is to build a budget on what its — the kingdom’s largest at $295 leadership estimates international billion — and said: “We are deter- oil prices will average for the com- mined to go ahead with economic ing year. One of the reasons that reform, achieving fiscal discipline, the kingdom’s 2018 deficit was improving transparency and em- slashed was because it had report- powering the private sector.” edly based the budget on an aver- Saudi government spending is age price of UK benchmark crude slated to rise 7% this year, up from Brent of $51-$55, which proved to $274.6 billion recorded in 2018. be a conservative estimate as the State revenues are anticipated at spot price of Brent averaged $71.40 $260 billion for 2019, largely from a barrel for 2018, figures from the oil income, leaving a projected US Department of Energy’s Energy deficit of $35 billion, the sixth con- Information Administration (EIA) secutive year Riyadh would report indicate. a budget deficit. The government Following the recent steep price said it will tackle the deficit as it tumble and eyeing a slowdown in has done in past years by drawing global economic growth, the EIA on state reserves and borrowing. projected a darker outlook for oil prices in 2019, with its forecast for Challenges and high hopes. Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan speaks during a news Brent to average $61 a barrel. The conference in Riyadh, December 18. (Reuters) Following a 0.9% Brent price is currently approxi- contraction in 2017, the mately $56 a barrel. kingdom’s economy grew This could be problematic for been promoting in its push to cre- ports states that figure is closer to since early 2017, largely because 2.3% in 2018 with growth Riyadh because some industry ate jobs, stimulate the private sec- $13 billion. of government fees that targeted projected at 2.6% in 2019. analysts say this year’s budget is tor and reduce public dependence Two major factors affecting the foreign workers. One introduced predicated on the price of Brent on the state. kingdom’s economic health are in July 2017 charges a monthly fee averaging as high as $80 a barrel. Just prior to announcing the unemployment among Saudi citi- for each dependent of a foreign The Saudi leadership is hoping King Salman’s government clearly 2019 budget, King Salman ordered zens and large numbers of expatri- worker living in the kingdom and that the increased spending will had domestic budgetary concerns that the Citizens Account pro- ate workers leaving Saudi Arabia. a second tax implemented in Janu- stimulate growth in the kingdom’s in mind when it helped coordi- gramme be rolled over for another Saudi unemployment notched up ary 2018 hits private businesses fledgling private sector, a key com- nate the December 7 agreement year to continue providing lower- to 12.9% in early 2018 — the highest that employ expatriates. The gov- ponent of Riyadh’s ambitious Sau- between OPEC and independent and middle-income families with level reported in ten years — with ernment is reportedly reviewing di Vision 2030 programme, which producer allies to pull 1.2 million monthly payments to help off- the number of employed Saudis these fees but they are unlikely to is designed to revamp its economy barrels per day off the market for set economic hardships resulting falling from 3.15 million in the first be abolished. and steer it away from being oil- six months. from energy-related subsidy cuts quarter to 3.13 million in the sec- centric. The enhanced spending is There are signs that Saudi Vision and tax levies. The government ond. Jareer Elass reports from expected to continue. The Saudi 2030 has been slow to produce the had said it expected to pay out More than 900,000 expatri- Washington on energy issues for government plans to raise state ex- dividends that the government has $8.5 billion in 2018 but some re- ates have left the Saudi workforce The Arab Weekly. Viewpoint VAT is GCC countries’ preparation for the future

hen the price and the United Arab Emirates. how to avoid VAT on commodities “In some ways this is similar to of oil bottomed The other GCC members said they such as cars. For instance, if a car the Saudis deciding to ask for loans out in 2015, Gulf needed more time. is bought and sold privately, it is on the international market and Tom Regan Cooperation Bahrain said it would launch a transaction between two people the issue is not that Saudi Arabia Council (GCC) VAT on January 1, 2019. Oman and and there is no VAT assigned so needs cash. Saudi Arabia has a lot countries knew Qatar indicated they would imple- some car dealers sell cars as “pri- of funds but they wanted Saudi of- Wit was time to face the future. ment the tax sometime during the vate citizens.” ficials to know how to prepare the It wasn’t as if the commodity coming year. Kuwait appears to be Most of the complaints in Saudi bond offering and they wanted the that had kept their economies vi- the only GCC member unprepared Arabia and the UAE come not from world (to get) used to buying Saudi brant for so many years had disap- for VAT. the consumers but businesses un- bonds so when they actually did peared but the world was turning Probably the biggest challenge sure about how to implement VAT need it, they would have a track towards renewable resources and for any of the countries imple- on goods and services. Many busi- record.” countries such as the United States menting VAT is how they sell it to a nesses were confused over what What was true about Saudi had begun to produce more oil. populace that has never had to pay rules may apply in these countries’ bonds is also true of VAT. Clearly, the days of $4-a-gallon gas income taxes. free trade zones. “They’ve known this day was in the United States and elsewhere “It requires a real attitude adjust- While there can be severe penal- coming,” said Alterman. “Really would not return. ment,” admitted Jon Alterman, ties for not registering a business since the early ’90s and the feeling GCC countries had built their senior vice-president, Zbigniew for the tax, the Saudi and UAE was that they needed to start ask- budget expectations around this Brzezinski Chair in Global Security governments have practised a rela- ing before they needed it. Because higher price. Now, they faced and Geostrategy and director, Mid- tively lenient policy. They know if the only time that you ask is the something new: budget deficits. dle East Programme at the Centre it will take a while for people to first time you need it, you have a Yet this dire situation had a silver for Strategic and International understand how to implement the problem.” lining. GCC members realised they Studies. tax properly. No doubt the same Currently, the VAT is 5%, al- would need to find new sources of “People are used to governments strategy will be used in Bahrain, though it will probably rise. So far, revenue and one of those sources being a source of revenue rather Oman and Qatar in 2019. Saudis and Emiratis have largely of revenue would be something than being a demander of revenue. This lenient attitude, however, supported the tax but even if they new: taxes. These are countries where people will probably end this year in Saudi don’t like it, Alterman said, they In October 2016, representa- are born and the government pro- Arabia and the UAE and they will have little choice. tives of each of the GCC countries vides free education, free health move towards more punishment “All the GCC countries are very Most of the signed the value added tax — VAT care, subsidised housing and life- and fines for those who have not practised and very skilled at mes- complaints in Saudi — framework treaty. It called for time employment. The idea that yet registered for VAT. saging to their own people. The each member to impose a 5% VAT you would owe the government Alterman said the real goal of the problem is that this is a new and Arabia and the UAE on designated goods and services. something is very new to people GCC countries is preparing their unwelcome message but people come not from the Those such as health and educa- because the presumption is that citizens for the future. are not in the mood to fight. There consumers but tion would remain tax-free but the government owes me.” “So there are some people who is no question that fighting back is people would start paying VAT on The implementation of VAT rather dramatically talk about how not going to get you very far in the businesses unsure food, cars, movies and more. in Saudi Arabia and the United they can afford less because of the Gulf these days,” he said. about how to The treaty called for the Gulf Arab Emirates has gone relatively taxation but for the most part there states to have VAT in place by smoothly but no one likes paying is just the effort to get people to Tom Regan is a regular contributor implement VAT on January 1, 2018. Only two countries taxes and it is not uncommon to wrap their heads around the idea,” to The Arab Weekly and a goods and services. met the deadline — Saudi Arabia see tips shared on social media on he said. columnist at factsandopinion.com. 22 January 6, 2019 Society Looking at suicide as a protest form in Tunisia

Lobna Harbaoui Bouazizi effect? A citizen and Tunis soldiers carry a man who will douse myself with attempted to gasoline,” yelled the angry set himself “ youth. This phrase has be- ablaze in I come a common threat in a suicide Tunisia. It is a clear warning that protest outside the person uttering it may someday the local set fire to himself. In recent years, government threatening or attempting self- office in immolation, either individually or Kasserine. collectively, has become a social (Reuters) phenomenon in Tunisia. Most of the unemployed in Tu- nisia are young people, very often university graduates. Before com- mitting suicide in late December, TV reporter Abderrazak Zorgui ap- peared on Facebook in a video clip in which he looked “desperate” while holding a bottle of gasoline, clearly signalling his intention to commit suicide. Preliminary findings of the police investigation said Zorgui could have committed suicide or burned him- self to death with the help of other individuals. His case has become a public opinion issue in Tunisia. The incident brought back mem- ories of another self-immolation eight years ago. On December 17, 2010, vegetable seller Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire and died. He was living in desperate conditions in Sidi Bouzid in south- ern Tunisia. His death sparked pro- Hospital in Tunis, co-wrote a study and the unions do not reach a set- half of the suicide victims were bear quick changes at the social, tests all over the country, which on the effects of the revolution on tlement. people aged 30-39. economic and political levels or to prompted a harsh reprisal by secu- suicide rates in Tunisia. He said sui- During the first six months of Abdessattar Sahbani, from the live in what is known in social psy- rity forces. The spread of popular cides in Tunisia have gone up since 2018, the Tunisian Forum on So- FTDES, said there is a link between chology as a “risk-laden society” unrest eventually forced Tunisian 2011 due to difficulties encountered cial and Economic Rights (FTDES) the deteriorating economic and so- that renders an individual unable President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali to during the “period of political tran- recorded 281 suicide cases, 205 by cial climate in post-revolution Tu- to absorb the accelerated events oc- flee the country. sition” in the country and the effect males and 76 by females. Forty-five nisia and the suicides of people liv- curring around him or her. Since the uprising, the number of the “macroeconomic crisis on in- victims were under 15 years of age; ing in tough conditions. “Of course, Ben Slimane added that the of suicides by self-immolation has dividuals.” 40 between 16-25, 141 between 26- suicide is linked to socioeconomic spread of suicide among young risen in Tunisia, a “Bouazizi effect,” December and January in Tunisia 35, 32 between 36-45, 16 between problems and results from loss of people can be explained by the specialists said. are undisputed months of “revolu- 46-60 and seven were over the age hope,” he said. “theory of relative deprivation.” If Bouazizi’s suicide shocked Tu- tions,” small and large. Confronta- of 60. Suicide in Tunisia is no longer a After the January 2011 uprising, nisian society and the world, the tions between the successive gov- personal and individual decision. It young people’s expectations rose, phenomenon goes back to at least ernments and the disadvantaged has become a type of group action. especially in the social and profes- “more than a decade ago,” Tunisian classes took place during these two December and January in Sahbani said many of the cases of sional domains, but those hopes psychiatrist Dr Fatma Charfi said. months. On January 15, 1978, Tu- Tunisia are undisputed suicide or attempted suicide re- crashed down when it became clear Charfi heads a suicide-prevention nisian government forces clashed months of “revolutions,” corded last year “were threats of that the state was unable to fulfil programme set up by the Tunisian with strikers from the Tunisian small and large. group suicides or attempted group them. Ministry of Public Health in 2015. General Labour Union. Scores of suicides.” The resulting disappointment Suicide rates in Tunisia are not people were reportedly killed. In By comparison, in 2017 there Studies of the phenomenon of can generate intense internal con- much higher than in many other January 1984, the so-called bread were 462 reports of attempted sui- suicide generally identify three fac- flicts that reveal themselves in a countries but Charfi said there is riots took place. Almost 30 years cides, including 34 under the age of tors encouraging suicidal behav- variety of manifestations, such as a danger in its “continuous” rise. later, popular uprisings brought 15 years. In 2016, the number of re- iour in individuals: social, psycho- violent protests or suicides as a “When we compare forensic data down the Ben Ali regime in January ported suicides totalled 583 cases, logical and genetic. form of protest. Remedying this from the decade between 1990 and 2011. 40 of which were children. Tunisian sociologist Rahma Ben disappointment does not seem an 2000 with the data from after 2010, There are fears this January could In 2015, in a population of about Slimane said suicide was a social easy task. we see this rise,” she said. witness violent upheaval. A general 11 million Tunisians, 365 people phenomenon linked to several vari- Dr Mehdi Ben Khelil, who practis- public service strike has been called committed suicide. That’s 3.27 sui- ables. The increase in suicide rates Lobna Harbaoui is a Tunisian es medicine at the Charles Nicolle for January 17 if the government cides per 100,000 people. About is due to individuals’ inability to journalist. The dangerous lives of Iraqi women activists

Oumayma Omar tiny because of their gender. It is pleasant for husbands. she added. sations that activists were provok- a flagrant violation of their rights “The amount of humiliating ma- In the shelters, victimised wom- ing women against social tradi- which under the constitution are terial in this law against women en not only keep safe but are edu- tions. “We did not import our ideas Baghdad supposed to be equal to men,” Mo- is mindboggling and out of this cated and empowered, Moham- and we do not contest customs or hammed said in a Skype interview era. It’s something that modern med said, adding: “Our shelters are religious texts,” Addour said. “We uman rights activism is a from self-exile in Canada. humanity cannot even conceive,” schools for social transformation only seek to implement the consti- risky business in the Mid- She said discriminatory practic- Mohammed said. for women to turn from victims tution by rejecting forced and early dle East in general but it is es against women have become a Women’s activism resulted in into defenders of women.” marriages and many other matters H more so in Iraq where fe- fait accompli and the norm in Iraqi scrapping Clause 409 of the Iraqi Activist Hana Addour, presi- that we cannot accept under any male activists have been targeted. families in rural areas as well as big penal code, which provided for dent of Al-Amal organisation, pretext.” A series of killings in 2018 sparked cities, including Baghdad, after the light sentences for men in cases of said entrenched tribal values are Dominated by Islamist and sec- fears of a coordinated campaign to rise to power of Islamist parties. so-called honour killings. still largely applied although Iraq tarian parties, the Iraqi govern- silence successful and outspoken Despite intimidations and ac- has endorsed the Universal Dec- ment has been resisting changes women in Iraq. cusations of promoting secular- laration of Human Rights, which to improve women’s conditions, In August and September, four Dominated by Islamist and ism and encouraging women to stipulates freedoms of expres- Mohammed said. prominent women were assassi- sectarian parties, the Iraqi go against their families, OWFI, sion, movement, opinion and the She said the government has nated, including activist Soad al- government has been which provides shelters for wom- right to choose a partner without been reluctant to provide legal Ali in Basra and social media star resisting changes to improve en who survive domestic violence, force or intimidation. status to shelters that are run by Tara Fares in Baghdad. They had women’s conditions. has been expanding since it was “Divorce rates are on the rise in OWFI and other NGOs. Although campaigned for women’s free- established in 2003. Iraq for many reasons including there is no law that says shelters doms and rights in a conservative, “They introduced extremist re- “Over the past 15 years, we have traditional marriages without prior are illegal, neither is there a law tribal society. ligious ideas based on hatred for been able to save 820 women from acquaintance between couples and that determines their legal status. “The new political situation in women and viewing them as sex- inevitable death. They included early marriage of girls who are not “Some of the tribal and misogy- Iraq has been detrimental on all ual and reproductive tools,” added victims of domestic violence fit to start a family,” Addour said. nist officials did tell us in the past Iraqis, especially women,” said Ya- the activist, who was among the and potential victims of honour “The constitution says clearly that we are doing an illegal thing nar Mohammed, president of the BBC’s 100 most inspirational wom- crimes,” Mohammed said. that women are full citizens and but they did not shut us down,” Organisation of Women’s Freedom en worldwide. “We had extremely difficult have equal rights as men but, in Mohammed said, adding that one in Iraq (OWFI). “After the US-led However, campaigning by Mo- years fearing violence by tribal Iraq, patriarchy is predominant. obvious, partial remedy to gender- invasion (2003), a new political hammed’s OWFI has been instru- and Islamist communities who However, many unacceptable based violence in Iraq would be to system was created leading to a mental in blocking a personal are utterly opposed to women’s practices such as gender-based improve the rule of law. most sectarian, tribal and religious status legislation, the Jaafari law, rights and freedoms but we were violence and harsh discrimination society where women’s lives don’t which allows the marriage of determined to continue and today against women can be reversed Oumayma Omar, based in have much weight.” 9-year-old girls to adult men, en- we have ten shelters in Baghdad through raising awareness in the Baghdad, is a contributor to the “Women in Iraq are constantly courages polygamy and getting rid and in rural areas where the tribes society.” Culture and Society section of exposed to social stigma and scru- of wives if they are not sexually and clergy are very powerful,” She refuted as “baseless” accu- The Arab Weekly. January 6, 2019 23 Culture

A 2015 file picture Amos Oz a witness to shows late Israeli writer Amos Oz at Palestinian-Israeli ‘tale his house in of love and darkness’ Tel Aviv. (AP)

Sharmila Devi Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Ne- tanyahu, attacking the Jewish “na- London tion-state” law for “steadily eroding the foundations of our state.” ith the death of the Netanyahu said after Oz’s death: writer Amos Oz, the “Even though we had differences of Palestinians lost a rare opinion in many fields, I greatly ap- W Israeli voice who tried preciate his contributions to the He- to understand their situation as an brew language and the renewal of occupied people. Oz died as 2018 Hebrew literature.” drew to a close. It was a year in which Oz, along with the shrinking num- Palestinians seemed to face greater bers of Israeli leftists, had become indifference by US and Israeli policy- increasingly marginalised in Israeli makers to their plight even as their politics. His death came at a time the goal of independent statehood faced Palestinians have few influential in- great challenges. ternational backers. his surname to Oz, Hebrew for “cour- he was respected in Israel mainly for Tsabari pointed out that the book Oz, who was one of Israel’s best- US President Donald Trump adopt- age.” his international literary reputation cannot be taken to be “our story” be- known writers and was lauded inter- ed many of the positions taken by the He wrote his many books, articles and not his political views. cause it “is an account of Oz’s child- nationally, died of cancer on Decem- Israeli right-wing, which has resisted and essays by hand and not on a Oz aroused mixed feelings among hood in Jerusalem, growing up in a ber 28 at the age of 79, prompting the creation of a Palestinian state. computer. “I have two pens on my Jews of different stripes. Israeli-Ca- highly educated revisionist Zionist fresh assessments of his literary The Israeli right has dominated Is- desk. One black and one blue. One, I nadian author Ayelet Tsabari, a Miz- family of Eastern European descent and political legacy. His books were raeli discourse since the 1967 Six-Day use to tell stories and the other to tell rahi Jew, or one of Middle-Eastern that had ties with some of the most translated into dozens of languages, War. the government to go to hell — and origin, points to Oz’s status as a rep- prominent figures in Israeli history including Arabic. His autobiography, Oz, who served as a speechwriter I never mix them,” he told the Irish resentative of European Ashkenazi and of his teenage years on Kib- “A Tale of Love and Darkness,” was to generals fighting the 1967 war, Times in a 2014 interview. “I have Jewish culture, which did not in- butz Hulda. This wasn’t my story, I made into a film directed by Natalie started writing political essays and never written a novel in order to tell clude Jews such as herself. thought.” Portman. campaigning against Israel becoming the Israelis to get out of the occu- Also writing in Foreign Policy, Oz was a member of a trio of na- He was a prominent advocate for “a nation of masters.” He argued for pied territories… Novels for me have she recalled how Oz sent an Arabic- tive Israeli writers that included A.B. peace with the Palestinians but he the withdrawal from the West Bank, never been a political vehicle. When I language copy of “A Tale of Love and Yehoshua and David Grossman who was no pacifist. Oz served in an elite Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem soon want to make a statement, I write an Darkness” to Marwan Barghouti, the were viewed by many as the moral paratrooper brigade and said force after the 1967 war and he was an early article.” imprisoned former Palestinian lead- conscience of the country. However, was sometimes necessary to fight advocate for a two-state solution and Oz condemned the policies of the er. It led some Israelis to call for the Oz himself recognised that it might aggression, as with recent military the creation of a Palestinian state, a Netanyahu government but “he tried recall of Oz’s Israel Prize, the coun- be time to pass the baton. action in Lebanon and Gaza, de- position he held until his death. to do so without condemning Israel try’s highest cultural honour. “It’s clear to me that the gospel fence against “the dark shadows of Oz was born Amos Klausner in Je- itself, the land and its people, which “I thought the gesture itself, the does not have to come now from the Iran, Syria and fanatic Islam.” Oz also rusalem in 1939, then part of British he had described so affectionately attempt to create dialogue with a mouth of an old privileged Ashke- helped found in the late 1970s Peace Mandate Palestine. His mother com- in his novels,” Israeli historian Tom Palestinian leader, was an honour- nazi male… I think the gospel should Now, which campaigns against Jew- mitted suicide when he was 12. He Segev said in an article in Foreign able one but the dedication irked come from women and men who are ish settlements in the occupied ter- moved to Kibbutz Hulda, south of Tel Policy. me,” said Tsabari. Oz’s message to younger, from a completely different ritories. Aviv when he was 15 and served as a Even so, Oz had become increas- Barghouti read: “This story is our background than my own. I’ve been He remained vocal in his criticism reservist during the 1967 and 1973 ingly “politically irrelevant” and the story. I hope you read it and under- talking for decades. It’s time for oth- of successive Israeli governments. Yom Kippur wars. When he started last decade of his life was particularly stand us better, as we attempt to ers to speak,” he told Israel’s KAN In July, Oz signed an open letter to writing in his early 20s, he changed difficult for him, Segev said, because understand you.” News in an interview last October.

BOOK REVIEW Why Turkey’s authoritarian drift is unlikely in India

ecular States, Reli- in sharp contrast to the Western Synthesis” as the official ideology of tive. It may look human but it is not gious Politics: prototype. In both, the state has the state by the all-powerful military creative. Since Turkish intellectuals India, Turkey and “acted as a nearly omnipresent and that “provided a fertile context for have aped the West for 200 years, Francis Ghilès “ the Future of often intrusive regulating authority the rapid growth of Islamic politics” they have not made any contribu- Secularism” is a in matters to do with religion and just as the permissiveness of Indian tion to humanity for 200 years.” pioneering over religious institutions, resulting secular leaders towards Hindu Add to that the deep chasm be- comparative in entanglement of the state and majoritarian politics “resulted in the tween a distant bureaucratic centre studyS of major attempts to build religion, rather than in separation.” meteoric rise of Hindu nationalism in Istanbul and Ankara and a vast secular states in which the consti- In both India and Turkey, the state is from the margins to the centre-stage periphery comprising the bulk of tutional identity and fundamental legally and constitutionally empow- of India’s politics in the 1990s.” an essentially peasant society that character of the state are not based ered to do so. The Alevis prefer the imperfectly carried through from the Ottoman on or derived from any religious The differences between India secular state to the Sunni Islamist Empire and you have the keys to faith. and Turkey run very deep, however. conception just as India’s Muslims the enduring success of Turkish A few decades ago, the secular India remains a democracy; Turkey prefer the flawed Indian secular President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: nature of the republics of India and can today hardly be counted as one, state to the Hindu nationalist alter- The modern Turkish republic never Turkey was considered axiomatic. if it ever was. native but it is “the anomalies and was a democracy! Not so any more. In the latter a Sun- The Hanafi-Sunni definition of contradictions of the secular state The sheer diversity, size and com- ni-Islamist majoritarian definition Turkish identity excludes large sec- that have enabled the unthinkable plexity of India argue against a simi- trumped a secular state that is dead tions of the population: the Alevis, — the rise of avowed anti-secularists lar drift to that of Turkey. The roots in all but name. In India, majoritar- whose eclectic form of faith diverges to the helm of the secular states of of democracy are infinitely stronger ian Hindu nationalism emerged as from Sunni orthodoxy in many India and Turkey, Bose writes. and Bose is surely right to argue that the country’s largest political force. ways; and the Kurds, who together The genealogy of secular states “the best guarantee of secularism’s Sumantra Bose, scion of a famous account for 40% of the popula- in India and Turkey does have two survival in India lies in a character- Indian political family, writes tion. As Bose explains “the Turkish salient differences that explain why istic that is intrinsic to the Indian “Secular States, Religious Politics” republic’s chronic problem has been the authoritarian turn in Turkey is nation — its manifold heterogeneity. with deep insight and exceptional that the plural nature of its society is unlikely to happen in India, Bose The Hindu nationalists remain, even clarity. He stresses the similarity be- at odds with the nature of its state, said. in the age of ascendency, a vocal, tween the two non-Western secular which has been fixated on imposing In the latter, the founder of ideologically motivated and highly countries in not being based on a an untenable homogeneity on all modern India, Jawaharlal Nehru, organised minority. But, unlike Western-style separation of church citizens and groups of citizens.” was convinced that a secular state Turkey, where a determined minor- and state but, rather, on an opera- It was promotion, in the 1980s, “was both natural and indispensa- ity was able to impose its ideology tional doctrine of state intervention of a so-called “Turkish-Islamic ble, given India’s historical heritage of secularism on the country, the in and regulation of the religious of the coexistence of a multiplicity Hindu nationalist anti-secular vision sphere. of religions. The rationale of the can only be realised if it succeeds The motives behind the estab- founder of modern Turkey, Kemal in demonstrating through the test lishment of secular states in the Ataturk, was very different. In 1923, of democracy that their vision does two cases were very different. Bose he declared ‘the war to establish a command the overwhelming major- demonstrates that, while state-secu- Turkish nation-state in Anatolia is ity they claim to represent.” larism took a culturally deracinated over with ourselves victorious but The moderately devolved nature and deeply authoritarian form in our real struggle for independence of the Indian political system adds Turkey, it assumed a culturally begins only now — this is the strug- a further brake to an authoritarian rooted and democratic form in In- gle to achieve Western civilisation.’” drift, as does the sheer depth of dia. The secular state in India has its Half a century later, Kurdish nov- intellectual and spiritual layers upon flaws but, unlike the fatally flawed elist Yasar Kemal summed up the which Indians can draw from their A few decades ago, Turkish model, secularism retains result: “For 200 years the Turkish history. the secular nature of relevance in the Indian context and intellectual has aped the West, imi- “Secular States, Religious Politics: the republics of India is indispensable to its future as a tated the West. An ape is not crea- India, Turkey and the Future of democracy. Secularism,” by Sumantra Bose, and Turkey was Bose’s book is all the more Unique insight. Cover of Sumantra Cambridge University Press, 2018. considered interesting in that it compares Bose’s “Secular States, Religious axiomatic. Not so two countries whose majoritarian Politics: India, Turkey and the Francis Ghilès is an associate religions are different but whose Future of Secularism.” fellow at the Barcelona Centre for any more. models of state secularism stand International Affairs. 24 January 6, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Muscat: January 10-February 9

The annual Muscat Festival will feature nightly fireworks, a replica of an Omani village with halwa-making and craft dis- plays, exhibitions from regional countries and events such as laser shows and traditional dancing.

Abu Dhabi: January 28-30

The second Abu Dhabi Publish- ing Forum features panel discus- sions, workshops and a tailored exhibition showcasing the most advanced technologies in the field of digital publishing. This year’s edition will focus on the significance of digital publishing A view of ancient ruins in the town of Umm el-Jimal in northern Jordan. (Roufan Nahhas) and its role in spreading knowledge.

Tizi Ouzou: During February Jordan’s Umm el-Jimal: The National Amazigh Film Festival in Tizi Ouzou, in north- central Algeria, showcases full- length feature films, documen- taries, shorts and animation that celebrate the Amazigh culture A village frozen in time in Algeria.

Beirut: Roufan Nahhas sion on the World Heritage Site list February 12-March 17 has been prepared. “The nomination of Umm el- Al Bustan International Festival Amman Jimal will also contribute to high- of Music and the Performing lighting the historical and archae- Arts is a musical celebration in alled in ancient times “the ological status of Jordan and its various locations in Beirut and Black Gem of the Desert” many important sites and history promotes music from all over for its impressive black ba- globally,” Elayan said. the world. The festival includes salt constructions and dark “This requires increasing respon- C orchestral concerts, choral encrusted layers of stones, Umm sibility for maintaining the site and music, opera and dance perfor- el-Jimal, a village frozen in time in working continuously to complete mances. northern Jordan, is hoping to fig- all the conditions that must be met ure on UNESCO’s list of protected for inclusion in the World Heritage Dubai: World Heritage Sites. List and the preparation of a com- February 20-22 The site carries 2,000 years of prehensive site management plan,” amazing history and culture. It he said. The 17th Emirates Airline Dubai was established in the first century With the aim of creating a local Jazz Festival will take place at BC by Nabataeans as a post on the tourism economy, USAID SCHEP Dubai Media City Amphithea- trade route between Damascus and is designed to strengthen the role tre. Local and international jazz the south. It was later a military of the community by improving, and blues artists such as Alicia base and today is considered the developing and training residents, Camels graze near the ruins of the Barracks in Umm el-Jimal. Keys, Snow Patrol and British best-preserved Byzantine town in guides and visitors. (Umm el-Jimal Project) jazz-funk band Jamiroquai are to the Southern Hauran region that Only countries that have signed perform at the festival. spans parts of southern Syria and the World Heritage Convention, northern Jordan. pledging to protect their natural Majdi Tell, a tourism and cultural more than one site to attract the Dubai: Umm el-Jimal enlisted in UN- and cultural heritage, can submit activities journalist, said: “This is a attention of tourists and Umm el- March 1 ESCO’s World Heritage programme nomination proposals for proper- great moment for Jordan.” Jimal is a great place to start tour- in 2001. Arrangements are under ties on their territory to be con- “To be included on the World ing,” he added. The third Wasla alternative way for the final application to sidered for inclusion on the World Heritage List, sites must be of out- In 2016, 919 tourists visited Umm Arabic music festival has lined the listing after the completion of Heritage List. standing universal value and meet el-Jimal and the number rose to up acts in a wide variety of the Sustainable Cultural Heritage The nomination goes through a at least one out of ten selection 1,108 in 2017. Through Septem- genres, including rock, folk, jazz through Engagement of Local Com- strict process in which a selected criteria such as to represent a mas- ber 2018, the number of tourists and electronica. Bands from munities Project (USAID SCHEP), a property is independently evalu- terpiece of human creativity; to be reached 1,891, compared to Petra, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt are 4-year US Agency for International ated by two advisory bodies man- outstanding examples represent- which was visited by 417,650 tour- to perform at the festival. The Development (USAID) initiative that dated by the World Heritage Con- ing major stages of global history ists in 2017 and 560,414 during first Wasla took place in 2016 uses a unique methodology for pre- vention, the International Council and to contain superlative natural January to September of this year, with live sets by returning guests serving, managing and promoting on Monuments and Sites and the phenomena or areas of exceptional the Ministry of Tourism and Antiq- Mashrou’ Leila, Souad Massi and cultural heritage resources through International Union for Conserva- natural beauty and Umm el-Jimal uities said. Jadal. a community-based approach. tion of Nature. has all of this,” Tell said. “That is why we always say that Yazeed Elayan, acting director Once a site has been nominated, “We, as Jordanians, are proud there is a need to market other Amman: of Jordan’s General Department of it is up to the World Heritage Com- of our ancient sites and appreci- sites in Jordan and attract more March 1-3 Antiquities, said the first draft to mittee, which meets once a year, to ate the role played by the tourism visitors, foreigners and locals,” Tell nominate Umm el-Jimal for inclu- decide on its inclusion. sector in the economy. Jordan has stressed. In 1985, UNESCO included Petra The Dead Sea Fashion Week is an on the World Heritage List describ- annual event and a country-wide ing it as “one of the most precious celebration of talent, creativity cultural properties of man’s cultur- and diversity that aims at com- al heritage.” In 2007, Al-Khazneh bining the worlds of fashion, art, (the Treasury), the most elaborate music and culture. Innovative temple in the ancient Nabataean runway shows, presentations kingdom city, was voted one of the and entertainment encourage New Seven Wonders of the World. collaborations and consumer relationships between designers, In addition to Petra, Jordan boasts buyers and media experts. four other World Heritage sites, in- cluding Jesus’s Baptism Site, Quseir Cairo: Amra, Um er-Rasas and Wadi Rum. March 8-29 A total of 14 tentative sites are also considered for nomination. Downtown Contemporary Arts “We feel proud that Umm el- Festival is Egypt’s only interna- Jimal, which means in Arabic ‘The tional multidisciplinary contem- Mother of Camels’ or ‘Beauties’ is porary arts festival that takes doing so much to the local commu- place over three weeks each year nity and Jordan as a whole and we at multiple sites in Cairo. hope that the site will add so much to the tourism sector,” Elayan said. Statistics by the Jordanian Cen- We welcome submissions of tral Bank showed tourism revenues calendar items related to reaching $4.9 billion in the first 11 cultural events of interest to months of 2018 compared to $4.6 travellers in the Middle East billion in 2017 and $4.1 billion in and North Africa. 2016. Please send tips to: Roufan Nahhas is a journalist [email protected] The West Church in Umm el-Jimal. (Wikipedia) based in Jordan.