Stockport Economic Overview 2019 Edition

Stockport. Change here

Economy, Work and Skills Telephone: 0161 474 3737 Email: [email protected] Web: www.stockport.gov.uk/business Twitter: @SMBC_Business

Stockport: Key Facts

 291,000 live in Stockport, of which 61% are of working age (16-64).  81.7% of Stockport’s working age population is economically active, above the North West and UK averages.  Stockport supports the third largest workforce within Greater Manchester, with 128,000 people employed within the district.  Over 13,200 businesses operate in Stockport, 18% of which are involved in professional, scientific and technical activities.  42.8% of Stockport’s residents are qualified to NVQ level 4 or above, an increase of 1.7% on the previous year.  Only 5.2% of the borough’s total population have no qualifications, compared to 9.6% across Greater Manchester.  Stockport’s major growth sectors include professional services, information and communication, real estate, and administrative and support services.

Population

Stockport has a resident population of just over 291,000. There is a fairly even split between males (49.0%) and females (51.0%). The slight skew towards females reflects regional and national trends.

The working age population (16-64) as a proportion of the total population, is slightly lower than the regional and national averages, as those under 15 and over 65 represent a higher proportion of the population than is seen in regional and national figures. Despite this, Stockport’s levels of economic activity (% of working age people available to work), and employment (% of working age people in employment) exceed both the regional and national averages.

Population – Age and Gender Breakdown Stockport Stockport Numbers % NW % UK % Total 291,000

Males 142,600 49.0 49.3 49.3

Females 148,400 51.0 50.6 50.6

0 — 15 56,300 19.4 19.0 18.9

Working age (16-64) 177,000 60.8 62.5 62.9

65+ 57,600 19.8 18.4 18.2

Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates, ONS/NOMIS (2017)

Employment

The strength of Stockport’s workforce and its economy is demonstrated by the higher than average employment and economic activity rates in the area. Stockport outperforms the North West and the UK, having an economic activity rate of 82.7% and an employment rate of 80.5% of 16-64 year olds.

The employment rate for males in the area is 82.6%, which is higher compared to the North West (78.3%) and the UK as a whole (79.6%). Similarly, for females, the employment rate is 78.4% compared to the North West region (69.4%) and the UK (70.5%).

Economically Active Population Stockport Stockport North West UK % (No's) % % Economically Active (% of working age 145,200 82.7 76.9 78.3 population available to work) Employment Rate (% of working age 141,300 80.5 73.8 75.0 population in employment) % of working age pop who are employees 121,700 69.3 64.3 64.1

% of working age who are self employed 19,600 11.2 9.3 10.6

Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS/NOMIS (2018)

The level of self-employment in Stockport is 11.2%, which is also higher than in the North West (9.3%) and the UK (10.6%). The number of self-employed males in Stockport increased by 800 between 2016, and 2018, from 14.6% of working age males to 15.6%. There was no overall change in the number of self employed females between 2016 and 2018.

Employment & Economic Activity by gender Stockport Stockport North UK % (No's) % West % MALES - Economically Active 74,100 85.3 81.8 83.1 Employment Rate 71,800 82.6 78.3 79.6 % of working age males: employees 58,200 67.0 65.0 65.1 % of working age males: self-employed 13,500 15.6 12.9 14.1 FEMALES - Economically Active 71,200 80.2 72.2 73.6 Employment Rate 69,600 78.4 69.4 70.5 % of working age females: employees 63,500 71.5 63.6 63.1 6,100 6.9 5.7 7.0 % of working age females: self employed Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS/NOMIS (2018)

By age group, Stockport has a higher proportion of those aged 50+ in employment than the North West, with 45.8% compared to 40.%. This also applies when compared to the national average of 41.9% for the UK.

Employment rate for 50+ population Stockport Stockport North West UK % (No's) % % Employment rate (16+) 147,500 63.3 59.1 60.7 Employment rate (50+) 55,000 45.8 40.1 41.9 Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS/NOMIS (2018)

Although at 65.0%, Stockport’s employment rate amongst ethnic minority groups is higher than the North West, it remains below the overall employment rate for Stockport (80.5%).

Employment rate for ethnic minority population Stockport Stockport North West UK % (No's) % % White 130,100 82.2 75.7 76.7 Ethnic Minority 11,300 65.0 59.6 65.2 Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS/NOMIS (2018)

Stockport’s knowledge driven economy, combined with its high quality of life, is reflected in the range of occupations held by its resident population. A high proportion of residents are employed in management and professional occupations, which make up over a third of the total number in employment. A higher proportion of residents tend to be employed in skilled or highly skilled occupations in comparison to the NW and UK.

Resident Employment by Occupation Stockport Stockport NW % UK% No’s % Managers & Senior Officials 17,100 12.0 9.9 10.7 Professional Occupations 35,900 25.1 19.3 20.4 Associate Professional & Technical 18,500 12.9 13.5 14.5 Administrative & Secretarial 17,200 12.0 10.8 10.2 Skilled Trades Occupations 13,400 9.3 9.6 10.2 Personal Service Occupations 13,300 9.3 9.7 9.1 Sales & Customer Service Occupations 11,600 8.1 8.6 7.6 Process Plant & Machinery Operatives 6,100 4.3 6.9 6.4 Elementary Occupations 10,000 7.0 11.2 10.5 Source: Annual Population Survey, NOMIS (2018)

Employment rates have been consistently higher than the UK, North West and Greater Manchester in the previous decade. The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model 2019 suggests the employment rate in Stockport will increase between 2018 and 2028 reflecting similar trends across the UK, NW and Greater Manchester.

Employment Rate Change Forecast 2008-2028

85.00 83.00 81.00 79.00 77.00 75.00 73.00 71.00 69.00 67.00 65.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Stockport GM NW UK

Source: Greater Manchester Forecasting Model, 2019

Unemployment

Historically, Stockport has experienced low levels of unemployment relative to Greater Manchester and the North West region. This is illustrated in the graph and table below, reinforcing the strength of the borough’s economy to deliver employment for its residents.

In December 2018 Stockport had a claimant rate1 of 1.8%, which is lower than Greater Manchester (3.2%), the North West (2.9%), and the national average (2.3%). Claimant rates have remained low for several years, although pockets of worklessness remain evident in parts of the borough.

Claimant count numbers and rates

Claimant Count (December Claimant Rate (December 2018) 2018) Stockport 3,235 1.8 Greater Manchester 56,825 3.2 North West 133,570 2.9 United Kingdom 967,220 2.3 Source: Claimant Count, ONS/NOMIS (2019)

1 Claimant Rate comprises JSA and unemployment-related Universal Credit

Claimant rate in Stockport, Greater Manchester, North West & UK 2015-2017

3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0

Stockport Greater Manchester North West United Kingdom

Source: Claimant Count, ONS/NOMIS, 2018

Economy

Stockport’s strategic location, range of business premises, prosperous residential areas and excellent connectivity all contribute to a thriving and diverse economy, including many high growth business start-ups and headquarters of both national and international firms. The borough is occupied by over 13,000 businesses and has the third largest workforce in Greater Manchester, with 128,000 people employed in the borough.

Employment in Greater Manchester authority areas (2017)

Employees number 500,000 386,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 149,000 128,000 110,000 106,000 86,000 75,000 68,000 100,000 67,000 66,000 0

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS, 2017

A breakdown of employment by sector shows the highest proportion of Stockport’s workforce are employed in the wholesale and retail sectors (17.2%), whilst 14.1% are in the health and social care sector. Finance and insurance services and information and communication are also important sectors for Stockport, having a higher proportion of people in these occupations than across both the North West and Greater Manchester. Manufacturing remains significant, with 11,000 currently employed in the sector.

Employment by Sector Stockport Stockport Numbers % GM % NW% GB% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 175 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 Manufacturing 11,000 8.6 8.2 9.9 8.1 Electricity, gas, steam supply 3,000 2.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 Water supply & waste management 700 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 Construction 5,000 3.9 4.5 4.8 4.8 Wholesale and retail trade 22,000 17.2 16.3 16.0 15.1 Transportation and storage 3,000 2.3 5.8 5.1 4.7 Accommodation and food service 6,000 4.7 5.8 6.6 7.4 Information and communication 6,000 4.7 3.7 3.0 4.3 Financial and insurance activities 5,000 3.9 3.4 2.8 3.5 Real estate activities 2,250 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 Professional, scientific and technical 11,000 8.6 9.1 8.2 8.4 Administrative and support service 12,000 9.4 10.0 8.6 9.1 Public administration and defence 5,000 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.3 Education 10,000 7.8 8.9 8.8 8.9 Human health and social work 18,000 14.1 12.9 14.1 13.2 Arts, entertainment and recreation 2,500 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.5 Other service activities 3,000 2.3 1.7 1.7 2.0 Total Employment 128,000 Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS/NOMIS, 2017

Stockport continues to attract and retain high quality employers, including international names such as Thales UK, Adidas, United Biscuits, The AA, Stagecoach, MAN Energy Solutions, BT, Sky and BASF. An analysis of businesses by sector, shows over 700 businesses are involved in manufacturing and over 900 in information and communication, whilst almost 2,500 are registered as professional, scientific and technical.

Professional services and information and communication are the sectors expected to experience the most significant growth over the next 10 years.

Businesses by Sector Stockport Stockport Numbers % GM % NW% GB% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 80 0.6 0.6 3.8 4.9 Manufacturing 745 5.6 5.0 5.0 4.7 Electricity, gas, steam supply 10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Water supply & waste management 40 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Construction 1,345 10.1 9.8 10.1 10.9 Wholesale and retail trade 2,435 18.3 20.7 18.6 16.2 Transportation and storage 345 2.6 7.0 5.5 4.0 Accommodation and food service 770 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.3 Information and communication 955 7.2 5.8 5.2 7.3 Financial and insurance activities 430 3.2 3.5 2.9 2.4 Real estate activities 490 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.5 Professional, scientific and technical 2,410 18.1 14.2 14.4 15.6 Administrative and support service 1,170 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.4 Public administration and defence 55 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 Education 285 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 Human health and social work 820 6.2 5.8 5.9 5.4 Arts, entertainment and recreation 305 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.7 Other service activities 595 4.5 3.8 3.9 3.8

Total Number of Businesses 13,285 Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, Business Counts - Local Units, ONS/NOMIS (2018)

Forecast GVA growth by sector 2016-2036 (% growth/year)

3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00

Source: Greater Manchester Forecasting Model, 2019

Stockport Employment Location Quotients vs. Greater Manchester & Great Britain

Location quotients (LQs) are used to compare the relative importance of an industry in an area with its relative importance regionally or nationally. The LQ of an industry is an analytical statistic that measures an area’s industrial specialisation relative to a benchmark (in this case Great Britain and also Greater Manchester).

LQs are calculated by comparing the industry’s share of employment in Stockport with its share of GB and Greater Manchester employment. For example, if a sector accounts for 10% of all jobs in an area, but only 5% of all GB jobs, the area’s LQ for that sector is 2. This means it is 2 times more concentrated in that area than the national average.

Stockport has competitive sectoral strength across a number of different industries. At the national level, the borough shows concentrations of employment in Information and Communications, Finance and Insurance and Propety and Wholesale. Similarly, compared to Greater Manchester as a whole, Stockport has a greater concentration of employment in wholesale, retail, professional services and business administration.

Stockport’s Location Quotients by Sector

1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

Stockport v GB Stockport v GM

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS/NOMIS, 2017

Gross value added (GVA) output

Gross value added (GVA) is used as a measure of economic activity and provides a useful insight into the strength of local economies. Analysis of current data shows that Stockport is the third largest contributor in terms of GVA to the Greater Manchester economy, after Manchester and Trafford.

GVA output by GM district (£m), 2018

20000 18980

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000 8309 8000 6509 6456 6000 5131 5037 GVA GVA output (£m) 2016 4093 3698 3597 4000 3441

2000

Greater Manchester Forecasting Model 2019

Productivity Relative to North West

Stockport is home to a productive workforce and is one of four boroughs in Greater Manchester with relative productivity above the Greater Manchester average. Currently, Stockport is the third most productive borough behind Trafford and Salford.

Relative Productivity of GM districts and the UK

115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80

Source: Greater Manchester Forecasting Model 2019.

Enterprise

Stockport exceeds the conurbation, regional and national averages for the representation of micro businesses (those employing 0 - 9 employees) within its economy 84.83%).

The borough is an attractive location for SMEs, offering businesses generally lower setup costs than in the conurbation core, as well as providing access to a comparatively highly skilled resident population.

Stockport has also proved attractive to larger employers, with 60 businesses, each employing over 250 people, located within the borough. Just over 14% of businesses employ between 10 and 249 people, representing 1,950 businesses.

Businesses by Size Employee Size band Stockport Stockport GM % NW % UK % (No’s) % Total 13,285 0 to 4 9,530 71.74 70.66 69.99 71.16 5 to 9 1,740 13.10 13.23 13.53 13.17 10 to 19 995 7.49 7.63 7.84 7.68 20 to 49 620 4.67 5.15 5.40 4.98 50 to 99 245 1.84 1.88 1.83 1.70 100 to 249 90 0.68 0.99 0.99 0.91 250 to 499 35 0.26 0.28 0.27 0.25 500 to 999 20 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 1000+ 5 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.05 Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, Business Counts – Local Units, NOMIS (2018)

Despite a steady rise in business start-up rates from 2014-2016 this figure dropped in 2017. This appears to contradict Greater Manchester and North West trends and there are no clear indicators to suggest why this would occur.

Business start-ups per 10,000 of the adult population, 2011-2017

140

120

100

40 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

UK NW GM Stockport

Source: ONS Business Demography, 2017

Survival rates of businesses in Stockport tend to be on a par with the UK, but higher than the North West and Greater Manchester averages, with 44% still in business after 5 years of operation.

Survival rates of businesses born in 2012

100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0

in the relevant year relevant the in 40.0 30.0 20.0

% of businesses born in 2011still operating 2011still in born businesses % of 10.0 0.0 1-year per cent 2-year per cent 3-year per cent 4-year per cent 5-year per cent

Stockport UK NW GM

Source: ONS Business Demography, 2017

Skills

Stockport has a highly skilled workforce, with 42.8% of the working age population educated to NVQ Level 4 & above in 2017, a 6.7% increase from 2015. Stockport exceeds GM, NW and UK averages for the share of residents educated to all qualification levels, with the exception of a lower proportion of its workforce with other qualifications (4.4%) and those with no qualifications (5.2%), compared to the GM, NW and the UK.

Qualifications of Working Age Population, 2016 Greater Stockport North United Stockport % Manchester (No's) West % Kingdom % % NVQ 4 & above 74,400 42.8 35.0 34.5 38.4 NVQ 3 & above 106,700 61.3 55.0 54.2 57.0 NVQ 2 & above 137,400 79.0 72.8 74.0 74.5 NVQ 1 & above 157,200 90.4 84.1 85.2 85.2 Other Qual 7,600 4.4 6.3 5.8 6.8 No Qual 9,100 5.2 9.6 9.0 8.0 Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan 2017-Dec 2017, ONS/NOMIS

In 2017/18, Stockport had the second-highest proportion (67%) of pupils achieving a grade 9-4 pass in GCSE English and Maths in GM, exceeded only by Trafford (79.1%), and significantly above the national average of 59.1%.

Pupils achieving a grade 9 – 4 pass in GCSE English and Maths

90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Source: Department for Education

In terms of wage rates, resident-based and workplace-based median annual full-time wages in Stockport are higher than the GM and NW averages, although workplace wage rates currently remain below the national average.

Resident & Workforce Median Annual Wage Rates (full-time workers) Greater United Stockport North West Manchester Kingdom Resident Wage Rates £30,868 £26,819 £27,492 £29,574 Workplace Wage Rates £27,544 £27,165 £27,315 £29,574 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2018, ONS/NOMIS

Average House Prices

Average house prices in Stockport are higher than those seen across the North West and Greater Manchester, underlining the attractiveness and quality of life that Stockport can offer. The average house price in Stockport in October 2018 was £226,942, compared to £163,954 in the North West and £170,974 in Greater Manchester. Average house prices still remain lower than those in England and Wales, at £242,965. Since October 2017, the average house price in Stockport rose by 7.7% (£16,343), compared to a 4.2% (£6,653) rise in the North West, a 4.7% (£7,742) rise in Greater Manchester, and a 2.6% rise in England & Wales (£6,047).

Average house prices in Stockport, April 2008 – October 2018

240,000

220,000

200,000

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18

England and wales NW GM Stockport

Source: Land Registry, 2019

Travel to Work

Data from the 2011 Census shows that Stockport enjoys an interdependent relationship with Manchester, with a two-way commuting flow existing between the conurbation’s core and Stockport. Just over 20% of Stockport’s residents work in Manchester, underlining the excellent transport links and the high skill levels amongst residents.

Stockport Residents’ Place of Work (%)

Source: Census 2011

Significantly, 46.5% of Stockport’s workforce commute from nearby areas, a figure that has increased slightly over recent years. Many commuters travel to Stockport from areas such as Tameside, Cheshire East and Trafford. The existence of this pattern reinforces the important role Stockport plays as a source of employment to the rest of Greater Manchester.

Stockport Workers’ Place of Residence (%)

Source: Census 2011

Contact Details

For more information about Stockport’s economy or the support available to businesses locally, please contact Stockport Council’s Economy, Work and Skills team:

Telephone: 0161 474 3737

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.stockport.gov.uk/business

Twitter: @SMBC_Business

Appendix

Data sources and methodology notes

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

The survey is based on a 1% sample of employee jobs taken from HM Revenue and Customs PAYE records. Information on earnings and hours is obtained from employers and treated confidentially. ASHE does not cover the self-employed nor does it cover employees not paid during the reference period for the survey.

Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES)

An employer survey of the number of jobs held by employees broken down by full/part-time and detailed industry (5 digit SIC 2007). The survey records a job at the location of an employee’s workplace. Available from country down to lower level super output area and Scottish data-zone. This data is restricted and requires a license to access.

Inter Departmental Business Register, Business Counts - Local units (IDBR)

An extract compiled from the Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR) recording the number of Local Units that were live at a reference date in March, broken down by employment size band, detailed industry (5 digit SIC 2007) and legal status. Local Units are individual sites that belong to an Enterprise. Available from country down to mid layer super output area and Scottish intermediate zones.

Annual Population Survey and Labour Force Survey (ONS)

A residence based labour market survey encompassing population, economic activity (employment and unemployment), economic inactivity and qualifications. These are broken down where possible by gender, age, ethnicity, industry and occupation. Available at Local Authority level and above. The APS – also known as the Labour Force Survey (LFS) in the European Union, covers all member states and is used to calculate the standardised International Labour Organization (ILO) defined unemployment rate.

Claimant Count and Claimant Rates

The Claimant Count is the stock of Job Seekers Allowance and unemployment-based Universal Credit claimants in an area, broken down by sex and age. Claimant rates represent the proportion of claimants as a share of the working age (16-64) population in an area.

Census 2011 and Census Travel to Work Area (ONS)

A census in the UK is a count of all people and households on 27 March 2011. Travel to work areas (TTWAs) are approximations to self-contained labour markets based on commuting to work patterns. The 243 new TTWAs were defined in 2007 using 2001 Census information and are based on lower layer super output areas in England and Wales, data zones in Scotland, and super output areas in Northern Ireland. The basic criteria used in the exercise were:

 at least 67% of those who live in the area also work there;

 at least 67% of those who work in the area also live there; and

 the working population as measured by the Census should be at least 25,000.

In areas of low population density these criteria were amended so that the minimum working population of the TTWA was 3,500 and the self-containment criteria increased to at least 75 per cent. National boundary constraints have not been imposed so 2001-based TTWAs now cross the England-Wales and England-Scotland borders.

Mid-Year Population Estimates (ONS)

Mid-year estimates refer to the population on 30 June of the reference year and are published annually. They are the official set of population estimates for the UK and its constituent countries, the regions and counties of England, and local authorities and their equivalents. They are based on a combination of registration, survey and administrative data, are used to estimate the different components of population change, and as such there will be a level of uncertainty associated with the estimated population. Mid-year population estimates relate to the usually resident population. They account for long-term international migrants (people who change their country of usual residence for a period of 12 months or more) but do not account for short-term migrants (period of less than 12 months).

Location Quotient

A Location Quotient (LQ) is a measure of employment concentration within the local economy compared with a regional or national average. More specifically, it looks at the weighted ‘distance’ of employment proportions in an area from the regional or national average in each sector. The resulting employment concentration figure is a percentage which shows the amount by which employment in an industry in an area differs from employment in that area regionally or nationally, and as such, it is used as a proxy measure for comparative advantage.

The precise method of calculation is:

    e  e  E Area’s Employment Concentration in Sector j  ∑ ij  ij  - j e e E i  ij  ∑∑ ij  ∑ j  j  i  j

Where: j is the sector, i is the area, e is number employed specific to the area, E is the number employed regionally or nationally

For example, if the LQ for an area’s employment concentration in the logistics industry is 1.05 (or 5%), this tells us that the weighted proportion of the area’s workforce employed in aviation is 5% more than the proportion of the total workforce employed in aviation regionally or nationally.